nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2014‒02‒08
fourteen papers chosen by
Michele Battisti
University of Munich

  1. Parental Leave and Labour Market Outcomes: Lessons from 40 Years of Policies in OECD countries By Olivier Thévenon; Anne Solaz
  2. Common Law Marriage and Male/Female Convergence in Labor Supply and Time Use By Grossbard, Shoshana; Vernon, Victoria
  3. Does Longer Compulsory Education Equalize Schooling by Gender and Rural/Urban Residence? By Kirdar, Murat G.; Dayioglu-Tayfur, Meltem; Koc, Ismet
  4. Combining Conditional Cash Transfers and Primary Health Care to Reduce Childhood Mortality in Brazil By Davide Rasella; Rômulo Paes-Sousa
  5. Retirement Patterns of Couples in Europe By Hospido, Laura; Zamarro, Gema
  6. Fertility of Turkish migrants in Germany: duration of stay matters By Katharina Wolf
  7. The advantages of demographic change after the wave: fewer and older, but healthier, greener, and more productive? By Fanny A. Kluge; Emilio Zagheni; Elke Loichinger; Tobias Vogt
  8. Is Women's Ownership of Land a Panacea in Developing Countries? Evidence from Land-Owning Farm Households in Malawi By Bhaumik, Sumon K.; Dimova, Ralitza; Gang, Ira N.
  9. Assimilation, Criminality and Ethnic Conflict By Dasgupta, Indraneel; Mukherjee, Diganta
  10. Social norms, economic conditions and spatial variation of childbearing within cohabitation across Europe By Trude Lappegård; Sebastian Klüsener; Daniele Vignoli
  11. Labor Income Dynamics and the Insurance from Taxes, Transfers, and the Family By Blundell, Richard; Graber, Michael; Mogstad, Magne
  12. Immigration: What about the Children and Grandchildren? By Sweetman, Arthur; van Ours, Jan C.
  13. Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967-2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes By Pranab Bardhan; Michael Luca; Dilip Mookherjee; Francisco Pino
  14. Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data By Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kudlyak, Marianna; Mondragon, John

  1. By: Olivier Thévenon (INED); Anne Solaz (INED)
    Abstract: Paid parental leave has gained greater salience in the past few decades with the growing participation of mothers in the workforce. Indeed, the average number of weeks of paid leave to mothers among OECD countries increased from 17 in 1980 to 48 weeks by 2011, but with very large cross-country variations. We investigate how increases in periods of paid leave after a birth affect prime-age labour market outcomes for men and women in 30 OECD countries from 1970 to 2010. We also examine gender differences in outcomes. We find that extensions of paid leave have a positive, albeit small, influence on female employment rates and on the gender ratio of employment, as long as the total period of paid leave does not exceed two years. Weeks of paid leave also raise the average number of hours worked by women relative to men, up to a certain limit. By contrast, the provision of paid leave widens the earnings gender gap among full-time employees.
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Grossbard, Shoshana (San Diego State University, California); Vernon, Victoria (Empire State College)
    Abstract: Does availability of common law marriage (CLM henceforth) in the U.S help explain variation in the labor force participation, hours of work and hours of household production of men and women over time and across states? As CLM offers more legal protection to household producers at the margin between single status and marriage, we expect it to discourage labor supply and encourage household production on the part of household producers who are married or cohabit. In the context of traditional gender roles this implies a negative association between availability of CLM and the labor supply of women who are either married or cohabit. Also assuming traditional gender roles, men are then expected to work more in the labor force when CLM is available. We analyze micro data from CPS-iPums for the period 1995-2011 to investigate labor outcomes and from the ATUS for the period 2003-11 to study effects on household production and total hours of work. Labor supply effects of CLM availability are almost always negative for cohabiting and married women, and sometimes also for single women. The effects of CLM on men's labor supply tend to be negative when samples include all men aged 18-35. However, for the groups that we identified as most likely to be affected by CLM availability – the youngest white men w/o college education – we find positive effects. Married non-black men and women and work less in home production under CLM.
    Keywords: labor supply, marriage, law and economics, household production
    JEL: J12 J16 J22 K36
    Date: 2014–01
  3. By: Kirdar, Murat G. (Middle East Technical University); Dayioglu-Tayfur, Meltem (Middle East Technical University); Koc, Ismet (Hacettepe University)
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of the extension of compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years in Turkey in 1997 – which involved substantial investment in school infrastructure – on schooling outcomes and, in particular, on the equality of these outcomes between men and women, and urban and rural residents using the Turkish Demographic and Health Surveys. This policy is peculiar because it also changes the sheepskin effects (signaling effects) of schooling, through its redefinition of the schooling tiers. The policy is also interesting due to its large spillover effects on post-compulsory schooling as well as its remarkable overall effect; for instance, we find that the completed years of schooling by age 17 increases by 1.5 years for rural women. The policy equalizes the educational attainment of urban and rural children substantially. The urban-rural gap in the completed years of schooling at age 17 falls by 0.5 years for men and by 0.7 to 0.8 years for women. However, there is no evidence of a narrowing gender gap with the policy. On the contrary, the gender gap in urban areas in post-compulsory schooling widens. The findings suggest that stronger sheepskin effects for men, resulting from their much higher labor-force participation rate, bring about this widening gender gap.
    Keywords: compulsory schooling, gender, rural and urban, equality in education, regression discontinuity design
    JEL: I21 I24 I28 J15 J16
    Date: 2014–01
  4. By: Davide Rasella (Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Federal University of Bahia); Rômulo Paes-Sousa (World Centre for Sustainable Development, RIO+ Centre)
    Abstract: Strategies adopted to reduce child mortality in developing countries are usually focused on interventions addressing biological causes, without considering its key underlying determinants. Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are poverty reduction interventions that transfer money to poor households with the requirement that parents comply with specific conditions focused on improving health and education for their children.
    Keywords: Combining Conditional Cash Transfers and Primary Health Care to Reduce Childhood Mortality in Brazil
    Date: 2013–12
  5. By: Hospido, Laura (Bank of Spain); Zamarro, Gema (University of Southern California)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the retirement patterns of couples in a multi-country setting using data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe. In particular we test whether women's (men's) transitions out of the labor force are directly related to the actual realization of their husbands' (wives') transition, using the institutional variation in country-specific early and full statutory retirement ages to instrument the latter. Exploiting the discontinuities in retirement behavior across countries, we find a significative joint retirement effect for women of 21 percentage points. For men, the estimated effect is insignificant. Our empirical strategy allows us to give a causal interpretation to the effect we estimate. In addition, this effect has important implications for policy analysis.
    Keywords: joint retirement, social security incentives
    JEL: J26 D10 C21
    Date: 2014–01
  6. By: Katharina Wolf
    Abstract: This study examines the fertility behavior of male and female Turkish migrants in Germany. Our main objective in this paper is to investigate the role of duration since migration in first and higher order birth risks. We use data from the 2nd wave of the German Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) that was conducted in 2005/06. In a first step, the age-specific fertility rates and the total fertility rates are estimated and compared for the German and the Turkish respondents following a method suggested by Toulemon (2004). Second, discrete-time hazard rate models are calculated. We find strongly elevated birth risks among the Turkish respondents in the years immediately following migration. This effect is found to be stronger for the females than for the males. The role of age at migration is also investigated. We find here that migrants who were older than age 30 at migration had significantly lower birth rates than other migrants, particularly those who migrated in young adulthood. We conclude that the fertility of Turkish migrants in Germany is strongly associated with their migration history. It is therefore important to take into account both the age at migration and the duration of stay when studying migrant fertility.
    Keywords: migrants
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2014–01
  7. By: Fanny A. Kluge (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Elke Loichinger (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Tobias Vogt (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the economic and societal challenges that we will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a) describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging; (b) discuss the economic, social, and environmental consequences of population aging; and (c) investigate some of the opportunities that aging societies create. We use Germany as a case study. However, the general insights that we obtain can be generalized to other developed countries. We argue that there may be positive unintended side effects of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.
    Keywords: Germany, ageing
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2014–01
  8. By: Bhaumik, Sumon K. (University of Sheffield); Dimova, Ralitza (University of Manchester); Gang, Ira N. (Rutgers University)
    Abstract: Our analysis of a rich representative household survey for Malawi, where patrilineal and matrilineal institutions coexist, suggests that (a) in matrilineal societies the likelihood of cash crop cultivation by a household increases with the extent of land owned (or de facto controlled) by males, and (b) and cultivation of cash crops increases household welfare. The policy implication is that facilitating female ownership of assets through informal and formal institutions does not, on its own, increase welfare, if women do not have access to complementary resources that are needed to generate income from those assets.
    Keywords: female ownership of assets, informal institutions, cash crops, household welfare
    JEL: Q12 O2 O13 J16
    Date: 2014–01
  9. By: Dasgupta, Indraneel (Indian Statistical Institute); Mukherjee, Diganta (Indian Statistical Institute)
    Abstract: We examine the consequences, of integrating large minorities into productivity-relevant majority ethno-linguistic norms, for distribution, ethnic conflict and crime. We develop a two-community model where such assimilation generates social gains by: (a) facilitating economic interaction, and (b) dampening religious or racial conflict over symbolic and normative contents of the public sphere. However, integration shifts the distribution of both material and symbolic goods against the minority. It also expands income inequality within the minority community. This incentivizes decentralized attempts to expropriate producers which, through cumulative causation, both immiserize and criminalize the minority. An underclass thus results, with disproportionate minority presence.
    Keywords: minority, identity, language, assimilation, discrimination, ethnic conflict, crime, welfare dependency
    JEL: D74 J15 J71 O15 Z13
    Date: 2014–01
  10. By: Trude Lappegård; Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Daniele Vignoli (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Childbearing within cohabitation has gained considerable ground in recent decades, but existing explanations for this development are not coherent. Proponents of the Second Demographic Transition framework interpret it rather as a pattern of progress driven by processes such as emancipation from traditional social norms. Others see rises in childbearing in cohabitation being related to a “pattern of disadvantage” as they are often concentrated among individuals faced with blocked opportunities. In this paper we argue that these inconsistencies might stem from a gap in knowledge how the relevance of existing theories varies dependent on whether we look at variation in family formation behavior across individuals, subnational regions or countries. To test this hypothesis we revisit the existing theories by analyzing harmonized survey data from 16 European countries using a three-level hierarchical model. Our results suggest that the Second Demographic Transition framework is particularly important to understanding variation between countries, while pattern of disadvantage hypotheses seem more relevant to understanding variation between individuals and subnational regions.
    Keywords: Europe, cohabitation, economic conditions, family formation, fertility, social norms
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2014–01
  11. By: Blundell, Richard (University College London); Graber, Michael (University College London); Mogstad, Magne (University College London)
    Abstract: What do labor income dynamics look like over the life-cycle? What is the relative importance of persistent shocks, transitory shocks and heterogeneous profiles? To what extent do taxes, transfers and the family attenuate these various factors in the evolution of life-cycle inequality? In this paper, we use rich Norwegian data to answer these important questions. We let individuals with different education levels have a separate income process; and within each skill group, we allow for non-stationarity in age and time, heterogeneous experience profiles, and shocks of varying persistence. We find that the income processes differ systematically by age, skill level and their interaction. To accurately describe labor income dynamics over the life-cycle, it is necessary to allow for heterogeneity by education levels and account for non-stationarity in age and time. Our findings suggest that the progressive nature of the Norwegian tax-transfer system plays a key role in attenuating the magnitude and persistence of income shocks, especially among the low skilled. By comparison, spouse's income matters less for the dynamics of inequality over the life-cycle.
    Keywords: income dynamics, insurance, life cycle inequality
    JEL: C33 D3 D91 J31
    Date: 2014–01
  12. By: Sweetman, Arthur (McMaster University); van Ours, Jan C. (Tilburg University)
    Abstract: Intergenerational immigrant integration is central to the economic growth and social development of many countries whose populations comprise a substantial share of the children and grandchildren of immigrants. In addition to basic demographics, relevant economic theories and institutional features are surveyed to assist in understanding these phenomena. Building on this foundation, educational and labor market success across the immigrant generations are reviewed, and then studies on the evolution of social outcomes across those same generations are discussed. Overall, substantial cross-national heterogeneity in outcomes is observed as various sources of immigration interact with distinct national labor markets and educational/social contexts that have diverse approaches to integrating immigrants.
    Keywords: labor market position, educational attainment, 1.5-generation immigration, second-generation immigration, intergenerational assimilation, economic integration
    JEL: J15
    Date: 2014–01
  13. By: Pranab Bardhan (University of California, Berkeley); Michael Luca (Harvard Business School, Negotiation, Organizations & Markets Unit); Dilip Mookherjee (Department of Economics, Boston University); Francisco Pino (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
    Abstract: This paper studies how land reform and population growth affect land inequality and landlessness, focusing particularly on indirect effects owing to their influence on household divisions and land market transactions. Theoretical predictions of a model of household division and land transactions are successfully tested using household panel data from West Bengal spanning 1967-2004. The tenancy reform lowered inequality through its effects on household divisions and land market transactions, but its effect was quantitatively dominated by inequality-raising effects of population growth. The land distribution program lowered landlessness but this was partly offset by targeting failures and induced increases in immigration.
    Keywords: inequality, land reform, household division, land markets
    JEL: J12 O13 O13
    Date: 2014–01
  14. By: Coibion, Olivier (University of Texas at Austin); Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Kudlyak, Marianna (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Mondragon, John (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: One suggested hypothesis for the dramatic rise in household borrowing that preceded the financial crisis is that low-income households increased their demand for credit to finance higher consumption expenditures in order to "keep up" with higherincome households. Using household level data on debt accumulation during 2001-2012, we show that low-income households in high-inequality regions accumulated less debt relative to income than their counterparts in lower-inequality regions, which negates the hypothesis. We argue instead that these patterns are consistent with supply-side interpretations of debt accumulation patterns during the 2000s. We present a model in which banks use applicants' incomes, combined with local income inequality, to infer the underlying type of the applicant, so that banks ultimately channel more credit toward lower-income applicants in low-inequality regions than high-inequality regions. We confirm the predictions of the model using data on individual mortgage applications in high- and low-inequality regions over this time period.
    Keywords: inequality, household debt, Great Recession
    JEL: E21 E51 D14 G21
    Date: 2014–01

This nep-dem issue is ©2014 by Michele Battisti. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.