nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2014‒02‒02
fourteen papers chosen by
Michele Battisti
University of Munich

  1. Surviving the Genocide: The Impact of the Rwandan Genocide on Child Mortality By Federico Ciani; Gianna Claudia Giannelli
  2. Fixed-term Employment and Fertility: Theory and Evidence from German Micro Data By Auer, Wolfgang; Danzer, Natalia; Rainer, Helmut
  3. Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence By Rainer, Helmut; Anderberg, Dan; Wadsworth, Jonathan; Wilson, Tanya
  4. Child-care Policies and Pension in an Endogenous Fertility Model By Masaya Yasuoka
  5. Parenthood and Productivity of Highly Skilled Labor: Evidence from the Groves of Academe By Krapf, Matthias; Ursprung, Heinrich W.; Zimmermann, Christian
  6. Cultural influences on the fertility behaviour of first- and second-generation immigrants in Germany By Yeter, Mustafa; Stichnoth, Holger
  7. How sensitive are individual retirement expectations to raising the retirement age By Montizaan R.M.; Fouarge D.; Grip A. de
  8. It is not a bed of roses. Gender and ethnic pay gaps in Italy. By Di Tommaso, Maria Laura; Piazzalunga, Daniela
  9. Can gender differences in the educational performance of 15-year old migrant pupils be explained by the gender equality in the countries of origin and destination? By Kornder N.; Dronkers J.; Dronkers J.
  10. Early life adversity and children's competence development: evidence from the Mannheim Study of Children at Risk By Pfeiffer, Friedhelm; Blomeyer, Dorothea; Coneus, Katja; Laucht, Manfred
  11. Empowering Women: The Effect of Schooling on Young Women's Knowledge and Use of Contraception By Andalón, Mabel; Williams, Jenny; Grossman, Michael
  12. Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions By Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Kluth, Sebastian
  13. Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility By Raj Chetty; Nathaniel Hendren; Patrick Kline; Emmanuel Saez; Nicholas Turner
  14. Cross-national analysis of gender differences in job satisfaction By HAURET Laetitia; WILLIAMS Donald R.

  1. By: Federico Ciani; Gianna Claudia Giannelli
    Abstract: Between April and July 1994 Rwanda experienced a tremendous wave of inter-ethnic violence that caused at least 500,000 deaths. Combining birth history data drawn from the 2000 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey with prefecture-level information on the intensity of the conflict, we examine the impact of the civil war on infant and child mortality. War exposure is measured exploiting the differential effects of timing of birth and genocide intensity at the household and geographic level. Considering both in utero and postnatal war exposure, we estimate discrete time proportional hazard models of child mortality for the exposed and the unexposed birth cohorts. We find large positive effects of exposure to the conflict on infant and child mortality. Moreover, restricting our sample to the survivors, we find that child mortality is significantly impacted by war exposure, increasing the hazard rate by nearly 6 percentage points on average. This result holds true also for children who were only exposed while in utero. This evidence points to the existence of long-term disruptive effects on the cohorts of children exposed to the violence.
    Keywords: genocide, child mortality, child health, survival analysis, Rwanda
    JEL: I20 J13 O12 Z13
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Auer, Wolfgang; Danzer, Natalia; Rainer, Helmut
    Abstract: In Germany, it has become conventional wisdom that the economic uncertainty associated fixed-term employment contracts prevents young couples from realizing their desire to have children. From a research perspective, it is however far from clear whether fixed-term contracts are the obstacle to family formation that the public a priori expect them to be. In this paper, we first develop a simple dynamic bargaining model that allows us to ask theoretically: under what conditions will couples choose to have children early on in life, postpone it to later in life, or decide to remain childless? And: to what extent does the economic uncertainty associated with holding fixed-term employment contract affect these choices? We obtain two theoretical predictions. On the one hand, job uncertainty at the beginning of women's employment careers causes couples to postpone parenthood. On the other hand, job uncertainty in women's mid-career lives causes couples to enter parenthood instead of remaining voluntarily childless. We bring these theoretical predictions to data from the German Socio-Economimc Panel (SOEP). Ordinary least squares and fixed-effects estimations show that, at the beginning of women's employment careers, holding a fixed-term employment contract and the probability of entering parenthood are negatively correlated. When considering women in their mid-career lives, holding a fixed-term contract has a positive impact on the probability of entering parenthood. --
    JEL: D13 J13 J22
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Rainer, Helmut; Anderberg, Dan; Wadsworth, Jonathan; Wilson, Tanya
    Abstract: While many commentators perceive unemployment to be a key risk factor for intimate partner violence, the empirical evidence remains limited. We combine individual-level data from the British Crime Survey (BCS) with local labor market data to estimate the effects of total and gender-specific unemployment rates on domestic violence. The analysis uses the substantial variation in the increase in unemployment across areas, gender, and age-groups associated with the onset of the latest recession. Our main specification links a woman's risk of being abused to the unemployment rate among females and males in her local area and age group. Our results suggest that male and female unemployment have opposite-signed effects on domestic violence: while female unemployment increases the risk abuse, unemployment among males has the opposite effect. The result is shown to be robust to the inclusion of a wide set of control and also remains when we instrument for male and female unemployment using shift-share indices of labor demand. We argue that our findings are consistent with a theory of domestic violence in which (i) marriage provides insurance against employment risk through the pooling of resources, and (ii) a woman does not know the violent predisposition of her partner but infers it from his behavior. When the male partner face a high risk of unemployment, a potentially abusive husband strategically conceals his type as he has an economic incentive to avoid divorce and the associated loss of spousal insurance. However, when the female spouse faces a high risk of unemployment, her expected financial dependency on her partner prompts a husband with violent predisposition to reveal his abusive nature. --
    JEL: J12 D19 C20
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Masaya Yasuoka (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: Some economically developed countries are suffering from an aging society with fewer children, which has brought about greater burdens imposed by social security. A child allowance and child-care services are provided by the governments in these countries to raise fertility. An increase in fertility pulls up the future labor population. An increase in labor population can subsequently provide sufficient social security benefits in terms of pensions and other transfers. This paper presents consideration of three child-care policies. The first is child allowances. The second is a subsidy for child-care services. The third is a subsidy for child care in the home. These three policies can raise fertility and the future labor population. This paper presents results of a derivation showing that child allowances can raise both the demand for child-care services and child care in the home. Therefore, fertility can always rise. However, a decrease in labor supply time has the effect of reducing the pension benefit. With large substitution between child-care services and child care in the home, the subsidy for child-care services or child care in the home can reduce fertility. Then, the pension benefit can not always increase.
    Keywords: Aging society, Child-care service, Fertility, Labor supply, Pay-as-you-go pension
    JEL: H51 H55 J14
    Date: 2014–01
  5. By: Krapf, Matthias (University of Zurich); Ursprung, Heinrich W. (University of Konstanz); Zimmermann, Christian (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
    Abstract: We examine the effect of pregnancy and parenthood on the research productivity of academic economists. Combining the survey responses of nearly 10,000 economists with their publication records as documented in their RePEc accounts, we do not find that motherhood is associated with low research productivity. Nor do we find a statistically significant unconditional effect of a first child on research productivity. Conditional difference-in-differences estimates, however, suggest that the effect of parenthood on research productivity is negative for unmarried women and positive for untenured men. Moreover, becoming a mother before 30 years of age appears to have a detrimental effect on research productivity.
    Keywords: fertility, research productivity, gender gap, research productivity, life cycle
    JEL: J13 I23 J24
    Date: 2014–01
  6. By: Yeter, Mustafa; Stichnoth, Holger
    Abstract: Using an epidemiological approach, we study the cultural influence on fertility outcomes of first- and second-generation female immigrants based on a 1% sample of the German population. We proxy for culture in the country of origin using total fertility rates from the year of migration, survey measures of fertility norms and cohort fertility rates from the year of birth. The last measure has not been used in the literature before. The large dataset allows us to focus on a relatively narrow range for age at migration and to estimate models that rely on within-country variation only, leading to more credible identification. We find a statistically significant, sizeable and robust impact of country-of-origin fertility rates on fertility outcomes. The impact works mainly through the intensive margin and less through the probability of having children. It is strongest in the first generation and becomes weaker for generation 1.5 (migrants arriving as children) and the second generation. The cultural influence is strongest for women with low education. --
    JEL: J13 J16 J15
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Montizaan R.M.; Fouarge D.; Grip A. de (GSBE)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causal effects of the announcement of an increase in the statutory pension age on employee retirement expectations. In June 2010, the Dutch government signed a new pension agreement with the employer and employee organizations that entailed an increase in the statutory pension age from 65 currently to 66 in 2020 for all inhabitants born after 1954. Given the expected increase in average life expectancy, it was also decided that in 2025 the pension age would be further increased to 67 for those born after 1959. This new pension agreement received huge media coverage. Using representative matched administrative and survey data of public sector employees, we find that the proposed policy reform increased the expected retirement age by 3.6 months for employees born between 1954 and 1959 and by 10.8 months for those born after 1959. This increase is reflected in a clear shift in the retirement peak from age 65 to ages 66 and 67 for the respective treated cohorts. Men respond less strongly to the policy reform than women, but within couples we find no evidence that the retirement expectations of one spouse are affected by an increase in the statutory pension age of the other. Furthermore, we show that treatment effects are largely driven by highly educated individuals but are lower for employees whose job involves physically demanding tasks or managerial and supervisory tasks.
    Keywords: Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-labor Market Discrimination; Retirement; Retirement Policies;
    JEL: J14 J26
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Di Tommaso, Maria Laura; Piazzalunga, Daniela (University of Turin)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the gender and ethnic wage gaps in Italy and their changes during the current economic crisis, using EU-SILC data. Even though Italy has a low gender pay gap compared to other European countries, the overall gender gap in creased from 3.7 in 2008 to 7.2 in 2011. First we analyse the institutional context and how gender segregation in different sectors affected changes in the wage gap. Second, we apply the Oaxac a-Blinder decomposition, with and without Heckman correction, and Shamsuddin decomposition, to estimate the double-negative discrimination for migrant women. We analyse the causes of changes in the wage gaps through a quantile decomposition. We show that the gender gap among Italians increased from 3.4% in 2008 to 7.0% in 2011, along the whole income distribution, driven by the the lower percentage increase in wages of Italian women with respect to men. Moreover, it is unexplained by observables characteristics. On the other hand, the ethnic wage gap between Italian and migrant women is larger, but it slightly decreased from 27.6% in 2008 to 26.0% in 2011. However, at the bottom of the income distribution the ethnic gap increased, because wages of poorly-paid migrant women did not grow during the period.
    Date: 2013–10
  9. By: Kornder N.; Dronkers J.; Dronkers J. (GSBE)
    Abstract: We try to explain the differences between the performance (in both reading and math) of 8430 15-year-old daughters and 8526 15-year-old sons in 17 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development destination countries across Europe and Oceania with the PISA 2009 data from 45 origin countries or regions. In addition to the level of societal gender equality of the origin and destination countries (the gender empowerment measure, or GEM) we use macro indicators of the educational systems, economic development, and religions of the countries of origin. We find that migrant daughters from countries with higher levels of gender equality have higher reading scores than comparable migrant sons (but this is not the case for math scores). In addition, the higher the level of gender equality in the destination countries, the lower the reading and math scores of both the male and female migrants’ children in their destination countries. Further analyses suggest that the difference between the levels of gender equality, rather than the levels themselves, of the origin and destination countries explains more of the educational performance of both female and male migrant pupils. Our results also show that the low level of gender equality in Islamic origin countries is a sufficient explanation of the low educational performance of Islam male and female migrants’ pupils. Finally, migrants’ daughters seem to perform slightly better educationally than comparable migrants’ sons.
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Pfeiffer, Friedhelm; Blomeyer, Dorothea; Coneus, Katja; Laucht, Manfred
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of early life adversity and home resources in terms of competence formation and school achievement based on data from an epidemiological cohort study following 364 children from birth to adolescence. Results indicate that organic and psychosocial risks present in early life as well as the socio-emotional home environment are significant predictors for the formation of competencies. Competencies acquired at preschool age predict achievement at school age. A counterfactual analysis is performed to assess trade-offs in the timing of interventions in the early life cycle. --
    JEL: I21 J13 I28
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Andalón, Mabel (University of Melbourne); Williams, Jenny (University of Melbourne); Grossman, Michael (CUNY Graduate Center)
    Abstract: Large differences in fertility between women with high and low levels of education suggest that schooling may have a direct impact on knowledge and use of contraception. We investigate this issue using information on women in Mexico. In order to identify the causal effect of schooling, we exploit temporal and geographic variation in the number of lower secondary schools built following the extension of compulsory education in Mexico from 6th to 9th grade in 1993. We show that raising females' schooling beyond 6th grade increases their knowledge of contraception during their reproductive years and increases their propensity to use contraception at sexual debut. This indicates that the impact of schooling on women's wellbeing extends beyond improved labour market outcomes and includes greater autonomy over their fertility.
    Keywords: schooling, empowerment, contraception, knowledge, natural experiment, Mexico
    JEL: I10 I18 I25
    Date: 2014–01
  12. By: Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Kluth, Sebastian
    Abstract: One important parameter in the decision process when buying a private annuity is individuals' subjective life expectancy, because it directly infuences the expected rate of return. We examine the market for private annuities in Germany and evaluate potential selection e ects based on subjective life expectancy. First individuals are pessimistic about their life span compared to the o cial life tables. Second we nd a signi cant selection e ect based on subjective life expectancy for women invested in private annuity contracts|so-called Riester pensions. For men there seems to be no di erence in subjective life expectancy by Riester ownership. Comparing the size of this selection e ect with the underlying mark ups in life expectancy that are charged by the insurance industry shows that the latter appears to be in line for women but too high for men. Our ndings have strong policy implications. On the one hand miss-perceptions about longevity risk might prevent individuals from providing su ciently for retirement, on the other hand mandated unisex tari s appear to prevent men from investing in Riester pensions. --
    JEL: D12 D91 G11
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Raj Chetty; Nathaniel Hendren; Patrick Kline; Emmanuel Saez; Nicholas Turner
    Abstract: We present new evidence on trends in intergenerational mobility in the U.S. using administrative earnings records. We find that percentile rank-based measures of intergenerational mobility have remained extremely stable for the 1971-1993 birth cohorts. For children born between 1971 and 1986, we measure intergenerational mobility based on the correlation between parent and child income percentile ranks. For more recent cohorts, we measure mobility as the correlation between a child’s probability of attending college and her parents’ income rank. We also calculate transition probabilities, such as a child’s chances of reaching the top quintile of the income distribution starting from the bottom quintile. Based on all of these measures, we find that children entering the labor market today have the same chances of moving up in the income distribution (relative to their parents) as children born in the 1970s. However, because inequality has risen, the consequences of the “birth lottery” – the parents to whom a child is born – are larger today than in the past.
    JEL: H0 J0
    Date: 2014–01
  14. By: HAURET Laetitia; WILLIAMS Donald R.
    Abstract: Research over the past two decades has found significant gender differences in subjective job-satisfaction, with the result that women report greater satisfaction than men in some countries. This paper examines the so-called ?gender paradox? using data from the European Social Survey for a subset of fourteen countries in the European Union. We focus on the hypothesis that women place higher values on certain work characteristics than men, which explains the observed differential. Using estimates from Probit and ordered Probit models, we conduct standard Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions to estimate the impact that differential valuations of characteristics have on the gender difference in self-reported job satisfaction. The results indicate that females continue to report higher levels of job satisfaction than do men in some countries, and the difference remains even after controlling for a wide range of personal and job characteristics and working conditions. The decompositions suggest that a relatively small share of the gender differential is attributable to gender differences in the weights placed on working conditions in most countries. Rather, gender differences in job characteristics contribute relatively more to explaining the gender job-satisfaction differential.
    Keywords: job satisfaction; gender; Oaxaca decomposition
    Date: 2013–12

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