nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2013‒12‒15
fifteen papers chosen by
Michele Battisti
University of Munich

  1. Does Growing Up in a High Crime Neighborhood Affect Youth Criminal Behavior? By Anna Piil Damm; Christian Dustmann
  2. Gender equality in the family and childbearing By Lars Dommermuth; Bryndl Hohmann-Marriott; Trude Lappegård
  3. With Strings Attached: Grandparent-Provided Child Care and Female Labor Market Outcomes By Eva García-Morán; Zoë Kuehn
  4. Childhood residential mobility and adult outcomes By Marianne Tønnessen; Kjetil Telle; Astri Syse
  5. Excess of maternal mortality in foreign nationalities in Spain, 1999-2006 By Luque Fernandez, M. A.; Bueno Cavanillas, A.; de Mateo, S.
  6. Easier said than done: childbearing intentions and their realization in a short term perspective By Anne-Kristin Kuhnt; Heike Trappe
  7. Does more involved fathering imply a double burden for fathers in Norway? By Ragni Hege Kitterød; Marit Rønsen
  8. Stillbirth risk by maternal socio-economic status and country of origin: a population-based observational study in Spain, 2007-08 By Luque-Fernandez, M. A.; Lone, N. I.; Gutierrez-Garitano, I.; Bueno-Cavanillas, A.
  9. Ethnic Concentration and Extreme Right-Wing Voting Behavior in West Germany By Verena Dill
  10. The Impact of the Children on Australian Couples' Wealth Accumulation By Alfred Michael Dockery; Sherry Bawa
  11. Is the relationship between schooling and disability pension receipt causal? By Taryn Ann Galloway; Christian N. Brinch
  12. Comparing mothers’ and fathers’ reports on the non-resident father’s contact with his children By Ragni Hege Kitterød; Jan Lyngstad
  13. Migration-Induced Women’s Empowerment: The Case of Turkey By Şule Akkoyunlu
  14. Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data By Yumi Saita; Chihiro Shimizu; Tsutomu Watanabe
  15. The Steadiness of Migration Plans and Expected Length of Stay – Based on a Recent Survey of Romanian Migrants in Italy By Michael Landesmann; Isilda Mara

  1. By: Anna Piil Damm (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University); Christian Dustmann (University College London)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of early exposure to neighborhood crime on subsequent criminal behavior of youth exploiting a unique natural experiment between 1986 and 1998 when refugee immigrants to Denmark were assigned to neighborhoods quasi-randomly. We find strong evidence that the share of young people convicted for crimes, in particular violent crimes, in the neighborhood increases convictions of male assignees later in life. No such effects are found for other measures of neighborhood crime including the rate of committed crimes. Our findings suggest social interaction as a key channel through which neighborhood crime is linked to individual criminal behavior.
    Keywords: Neighborhood effects, criminal convictions, social interactions, random allocation
    JEL: J0 H43
    Date: 2013–12
  2. By: Lars Dommermuth; Bryndl Hohmann-Marriott; Trude Lappegård (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: This study focuses on the possible effect of gender equality and equity in the family on the transition to first, second and third births. The analysis includes the division of housework and childcare as well as the perception of whether this division is fair and just. We use a unique dataset combining data from the Norwegian GGS (2007) with information from population register on subsequent childbirths. Results indicate a varying effect of gender equality in the family on childbearing. An unequal division of housework has a negative effect on first and subsequent births. Couples were men contribute more to housework than women, have lower likelihood of first and second births compared to couples with a more typical division where women do more but men contribute substantially. In the same way, couples where the woman does almost all housework has lower likelihood of a third birth. Even though the division of childcare has no substantial impact on continued childbearing, the perception of this division is relevant for parents with one child. Couples in which the respondent perceives the division of childcare as less equitable are less likely to get a second child.
    Keywords: Childbearing; Gender equality; Gender equity; Division of housework; Division of childcare
    JEL: N34 Z10 Z13
    Date: 2013–10
  3. By: Eva García-Morán; Zoë Kuehn
    Abstract: Grandparents are regular providers of free child care. Similar to other forms of child care, availability of grandparent-provided child care affects fertility and labor force participation of women positively. However, grandparent-provided child care requires residing close to parents or in-laws which may imply costly spatial restrictions. We find that mothers residing close to parents or in-laws have lower wages and that the probability of having to commute increases if relatives provide child care. We build a model of residence choice, fertility, and female labor force participation that can account for the observed relationships. We simulate our model to analyze how women's decisions would change if the availability of grandparent-provided child care or family policies were altered. We nd that if child care subsidies were raised to the Swedish level, fertility and mothers' labor force participation would increase, while mobility would remain unchanged. The absence of grandparents, on the other hand, would increase mobility, while it would only have limited negative e ects on aggregate fertility and labor force participation.
    Keywords: Grandparent-provided child care, fertility, labor force participation, spatial restrictions, regional labor markets
    JEL: J13 J61 H42 R23
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Marianne Tønnessen; Kjetil Telle; Astri Syse (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: This study analyses the relation between moving during childhood and four different outcomes later in life. We use detailed data on complete cohorts born in Norway between 1965 and 1980 (N=967 151), their parents and siblings, and information on all their moves between Norway’s municipalities. We use traditional logistic regression models and sibling fixed-effects models. First, we assess how different outcomes are affected by the number of times a child has moved. Next, we examine whether the child’s age at moving is important. The results show that children with more residential relocations during childhood are more likely to drop out of high school, to have low adult income, to experience early parenthood and to die at young age. The sibling fixed-effects models largely confirm this picture. We also found that children who moved prior to elementary school do not have severe long-term outcomes compared with children who did not move at that age, whereas children who moved during teens did have more adverse outcomes than those who did not move at that age.
    Keywords: Childhood; Residential mobility; Internal migration; Movers; Outcomes
    JEL: O15 R23
    Date: 2013–09
  5. By: Luque Fernandez, M. A.; Bueno Cavanillas, A.; de Mateo, S.
    Abstract: OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare maternal mortality by province, autonomous region and mother's country of birth in Spain during 1999-2006. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional ecological study with all live births and maternal mortality cases occurring during 1999-2006 in Spain was done. Data were drawn from the National Statistics Institute (INE) and we used the Movement of Natural Persons (MNP) and death statistics broken down by cause of death. Maternal mortality rates by province, autonomous region and mother's country of birth were calculated. To compare maternal mortality by province, standardised mortality ratios were calculated using an indirect standardisation. The risk of maternal death by autonomous region, age and mother's country of birth was calculated by a Poisson regression. RESULTS: Sub-Saharan nationalities present the highest maternal mortality rates. Adjusted by age and autonomous region, foreign nationalities had 67% higher risk of maternal mortality (RR=1.67; 95%CI=1.22-2.33). Adjusted by mother's country of birth and age, two autonomous regions had a significant mortality excess: Andalusia (RR=1.84; 95%CI=1.32-2.57) and Asturias (RR=2.78 95%CI=1.24-6.24). CONCLUSION: This study shows inequalities in maternal mortality by province, autonomous region and mother's country of birth in Spain. It would be desirable to implement a maternal mortality active surveillance system and the use of confidential qualitative surveys for analysis of socio-economic and healthcare circumstances surrounding deaths. These measures would be invaluable for in-depth understanding and characterisation of a preventable phenomenon such as maternal death.
    Keywords: *Emigrants and Immigrants; Cause of Death; Cross-Sectional Studies; Female; Humans; Maternal Health Services; Maternal Mortality/*ethnology; Pregnancy; Registries; Risk; Risk Factors; Socioeconomic Factors; Spain/ethnology
  6. By: Anne-Kristin Kuhnt (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Heike Trappe
    Abstract: This paper studies the short-term fertility intentions of women and men and their subsequent behavior. On the one hand, the predictive strength of fertility intentions is of interest. On the other hand, the most important determinants that inhibit or enable the realization of fertility intentions are analyzed. Data from the first three waves of the German Family Panel (pairfam) are used in the analysis. The theoretical model is derived from the Theory of Planned Behavior. Its validity for the realization of short-term childbearing intentions is tested in the low-fertility context of Germany. Our descriptive findings indicate that fertility intentions have a certain predictive strength. Individuals who reported a strong desire to have a child within the next two years were the most likely to have had a child. However, negative intentions were even more predictive of subsequent behavior. For the women and men with positive fertility intentions, the chances of failure were relatively high. The multivariate results suggest that being in a stable relationship was by far the most important determinant of whether individuals had and realized positive fertility intentions. In addition, financial security and parenthood status were strong determinants. Social pressure exerted by the parents was also a factor, as subjective norms appear to have affected the realization of positive intentions.
    Keywords: Germany, family demography, fertility
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2013–12
  7. By: Ragni Hege Kitterød; Marit Rønsen (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: While long total work hours (paid plus unpaid work) have usually been framed as a problem for employed women, researchers now ask whether more involved fathering practices imply a double burden for men, too. Based on the Norwegian Time Use Survey 2010, and using three different measures of total workload, our analyses suggest that the father’s total workload exceeds the mother’s when he works full time and she part time and there are school-aged children in the household. Fathers also perceive more time pressure than mothers in these couples. Full-time work for both partners may give a longer total workload for mothers, but the difference is more modest than in full-time / part-time couples and is not statistically significant in our sample. Gender differences in total workload vary during the week, with longest hours for fathers on weekdays, and longest hours for mothers on weekends.
    Keywords: Gender equality; Double burden; Paid and unpaid work; Second shift; Total workload.
    JEL: D13 J18 J21 J22
    Date: 2013–09
  8. By: Luque-Fernandez, M. A.; Lone, N. I.; Gutierrez-Garitano, I.; Bueno-Cavanillas, A.
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: Socio-economic differences are a major determinant of perinatal outcomes. The impact of low socio-economic status on the risk of stillbirth, and the association between socio-economic status and stillbirth by maternal country of origin at a national level in Spain are unknown. We aimed to analyse the effect of maternal socio-economic status on the risk of stillbirth by maternal country of origin in Spain for the years 2007 and 2008. METHODS: We designed a population-based observational study that included 970 740 live births and 2464 stillbirths from 2007 to 2008. Univariate risk ratios (RRs) of stillbirth were calculated by maternal education, country of origin, age, parity, and gestational age. Adjusted stillbirth RRs were calculated using a generalized linear model with the Poisson family. Then, adjusted attributable risks and aetiological fractions in the population were calculated as measures of impact. RESULTS: Stillbirth rate ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 deaths per 1000 births. The stillbirth risk among mothers having secondary or lower education was double than that of mothers with a tertiary education with an adjusted RR of 2.13 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.74-2.60]. African mothers, compared with mothers from Spain, showed an adjusted stillbirth RR of 1.75 (95% CI: 1.54-2.00). Discussion: This study confirms the differences of stillbirth risk by maternal socio-economic status. Regardless of socio-economic status, African mothers had the highest risk of stillbirth. These results point out the necessity to reduce factors related to social and health inequalities in perinatal mortality in Spain, and more specifically, to take into consideration the special vulnerability of African mothers.
  9. By: Verena Dill
    Abstract: Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and administrative data from 1996 to 2009, I investigate the question whether or not right-wing extremism of German residents is affected by the ethnic concentration of foreigners living in the same residential area. My results show a positive but insignificant relationship between ethnic concentration at county level and the probability of extreme right-wing voting behavior for West Germany. However, due to potential endogeneity issues, I additionally instrument the share of foreigners in a county with the share of foreigners in each federal state (following an approach of Dustmann/Preston 2001). I find evidence for the interethnic contact theory, predicting a negative relationship between foreigners’ share and right-wing voting. Moreover, I analyze the moderating role of education and the influence of cultural traits on this relationship.
    Keywords: Ethnic concentration, extreme right-wing voting, group threat, interethnic contact
    JEL: D72 R23 J15
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Alfred Michael Dockery (School of Economics and Finance, Curtin University); Sherry Bawa (School of Economics and Finance, Curtin University)
    Abstract: Existing estimates of the cost of raising children mainly focus on what parents spend on their children. This paper challenges the conceptual basis for this approach, and instead investigates how the presence of children impacts upon couples’ wealth accumulation using the life-cycle approach and Australian household panel data. Both the results presented here for Australia and those contained in the existing literature suggest that raising a family has a very small impact upon wealth accumulation relative to the ‘cost’ implied from expenditure-based estimates. In reconciling these highly divergent estimates, we argue the estimates from the wealth approach make more intuitive sense on a number of fronts, with implications for families and policy.
    Keywords: children, family, wealth, lifecycle model, savings
    JEL: J13 J22 I32
    Date: 2013–06
  11. By: Taryn Ann Galloway; Christian N. Brinch (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: We examine the potential causal effect of years of schooling on the use of public disability pensions by studying the extension of compulsory schooling introduced in Norway in the 1960s. Simple regressions of disability pension receipt on schooling suggest a very strong negative relationship between education and disability pension use, particularly in the lower tail of the educational distribution. Given the strength of this observed relationship, one might suspect that improvements in educational attainment would lower disability receipt and alleviate the public finance burden from such social security benefits. Our analysis of the extension of compulsory education from 7 to 9 years in Norway in the 1960s shows essentially no effects on disability pension use at age 50, with a confidence interval suggesting that at best only a minor part of the observed relationship between schooling and disability pension receipt can be explained by a causal effect of schooling on disability.
    Keywords: Education; Health; Disability
    JEL: I18 I21 J14 J24
    Date: 2013–06
  12. By: Ragni Hege Kitterød; Jan Lyngstad (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Analyses of contact frequency between non-resident fathers and children are often based on samples of non-resident fathers or resident mothers only. It is well established that non-resident fathers tend to report more contact than the resident mothers do, but it is less clear whether it matters which parent we ask when the aim is to explore predictors of father-child contact. Based on a high-quality Norwegian survey of ex-couples of parents living apart we find that the amount of monthly father-child contact, measured by overnight stays and visitation days, is largely associated with the same independent variables whether we use the non-resident fathers’ or the resident mothers’ answers, but some differences do appear. We observe more significant associations between father-child contact days and the independent variables based on the resident mothers’ than the non-resident fathers’ reporting. The mother’s educational attainment and whether the father has children with more former partners have significant effects in the subsample of resident mothers but not in the subsample of non-resident fathers. We argue that future surveys should collect information from both parents. Using information from one parent only should be a last resort if more adequate data cannot be obtained.
    Keywords: Absent fathers; Discrepancy between mother's and father's reporting; Father-child contact; Fathers' role after separation; Parents living apart
    JEL: J12 J13
    Date: 2013–05
  13. By: Şule Akkoyunlu
    Abstract: Migration not only contributes to development through financial remittances, but also through flows of knowledge and through the diffusion of social, cultural and political norms and values. In fact, these more intangible contributions are more appreciated during economic and financial crises, as financial remittances become unstable or decrease in those circumstances. This paper, therefore, addresses the effect of migration on women’s empowerment in Turkey. The number of women in parliament in Turkey is chosen as a gauge of women’s empowerment and is explained by the emigration rate, the relative education of women to men, and a measure of democracy. Utilization of data over six decades from 1960 until 2011 gives the possibility that these series can be spuriously correlated. Therefore, the paper addresses the issue of spurious correlation in an analytical way. Spurious correlation is the risk of linking the share of women in parliament, for example, to the emigration rate when in fact there is no association. This study adopts the bounds testing procedure as a method to determine and to avoid spurious correlation. The results of bounds testing gives clear-cut evidence that women’s empowerment, the share of women in parliament in the present context, is related to the emigration rate, the relative education of women and to a measure of democracy. The bounds-testing procedure is replicated for emigration flows by destination country groups such as European and other core OECD countries, Arab countries, and Russia and CIS (Commonwealth Independent States) countries. Again, it is found that the share of women in parliament is related to the country groups with the largest effect in European and core OECD countries. The results are robust for the inclusion of asylum seekers and refugees in the emigration data. These results have important policy implications for sending as well as for destination countries, implications which are discussed in the paper.
    Keywords: Emigration, Social Remittances, Women's Empowerment, Women share in parliament, Turkey
    Date: 2013–10
  14. By: Yumi Saita (Hitotsubashi University); Chihiro Shimizu (Reitaku University and University of British Columbia); Tsutomu Watanabe (The University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: In this paper, we empirically investigate how real estate prices are affected by aging. We run regional panel regressions for Japan and the United States. Our regression results show that, both in Japan and the U.S., real estate prices in a region are inversely correlated with the old age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of population aged 65+ to population aged 20-64, in that region, and positively correlated with the total number of population in that region. The demographic factor had a greater impact on real estate prices in Japan than in the U.S. Based on the regression result for Japan and the population forecast made by a government agency, we estimate the demographic impact on Japanese real estate prices over the next 30 years. We find that it will be -2.4 percent per year in 2012-2040 while it was -3.7 percent per year in 1976-2010, suggesting that aging will continue to have downward pressure on land prices over the next 30 years, although the demographic impact will be slightly smaller than it was in 1976-2010 as the old age dependency ratio will not increase as much as it did before.
    Date: 2013–12
  15. By: Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Abstract The study analyses migration intentions and expected length of stay in the host country, taking account of the propensity to change (or retain) migration plans during the course of the migration experience in the host country. We analyse the particular case of Romanian migrants in Italy, using a survey conducted in 2011 in the context of the TEMPO/NORFACE project. We used different specifications to analyse the exogeneity vs endogeneity of steady/changing migration plans regarding expected length of stay and migration intentions. The survey and the analysis showed that Romanian migrants, both men and women, who arrived in Italy after May 2004 have modified their migration plans, the main determinants being employment and family reasons. Migrants who have maintained similar migration plans to the ones upon arrival are mostly those with a preference for long-term and permanent migration. Gender differences in analysing migration plans matter as diverse patterns emerge for men compared to women. Differently from women, men plan their length of stay based on the employment context, especially on whether the job is adequate to the level of qualification and whether earnings match expectations. For women, on the other hand, family context variables play a significant role. The paper concludes that migration intentions could be a good predictor of migration behaviour if we account for the endogeneity of steadiness/switching of such plans.
    Keywords: migration, temporary/permanent, Romanian migrants, applied econometrics, bivariate ordered probit, migrants in Italy
    JEL: J61 D84
    Date: 2013–09

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