nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2013‒11‒29
twenty-two papers chosen by
Michele Battisti
University of Munich

  1. Landownership Concentration and the Expansion of Education By Cinnirella, Francesco; Hornung, Erik
  2. Nuns and the Effects of Catholic Schools: Evidence from Vatican II By Gihleb, Rania; Giuntella, Osea
  3. Do High-Income or Low-Income Immigrants Leave Faster? By Bijwaard, Govert; Wahba, Jackline
  4. People, Places and Public Policy: Some Simple Welfare Economics of Local Economic Development Programs By Patrick Kline; Enrico Moretti
  5. Religion and Health in Early Childhood:Evidence from the Indian Subcontinent By Elizabeth Brainerd; Nidhiya Menon
  6. Joint Land Certification and Intra-household Decision-making:Towards Empowerment of Wives? By Holden, Stein; Bezu, Sosina
  7. An Urban Legend?! Power Rationing, Fertility and its Effects on Mothers By Thiemo Fetzer; Oliver Pardo; Amar Shanghavi
  8. The impact of migration on children left behind in Moldova By Gassmann, Franziska; Siegel, Melissa; Vanore, Michaella; Waidler, Jennifer
  9. Parental leave within the broader work-family trajectory: What can we learn from sequence analysis? By Zhelyazkova, Nevena
  10. Vulnerability to expected poverty in Afghanistan By Mohiburrahman Iqbal
  11. Ethnic segregation and heterogeneous preferences of homeowners for housing and neighbourhood characteristics. Evidence from the Netherlands. By Ong, C.; De Witte, Kristof
  12. Does waiting pay off? The effect of partnership duration prior to household formation on union stability By Christine Schnor
  13. "To Have and Have Not": Migration, Remittances, Poverty and Inequality in Algeria By Margolis, David N.; Miotti, Luis; Mouhoud, El Mouhoub; Oudinet, Joël
  14. Hiring subsidies for people with a disability: Helping or hindering? - Evidence from a small scale social field experiment By Deuchert, Eva; Kauer, Lukas
  15. Hide or show? Endogenous observability of private precautions against crime when property value is private information By Baumann, Florian; Denter, Philipp; Friehe, Tim
  16. The binomial Gini inequality indices and the binomial decomposition of welfare functions By Silvia Bortot; Ricardo Alberto Marques Pereira
  17. Ethnic segregation and heterogeneous preferences of homeowners for housing and neighbourhood characteristics. Evidence from the Netherlands By Ong, Cheng Boon; De Witte, Kristof
  18. New Unmarried Dads and Father Involvement: Evidence from the Building Strong Families Evaluaiton. By Robert G. Wood; Reginald Covington
  19. The Earnings Consequences of the Americans with Disabilities Act on People with Disabilities. By Allison V. Thompkins
  20. Migration, Risk Attitudes, and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from a Representative Immigrant Survey By Catia Batista; Janis Umblijs
  21. The influence of vulnerability on migration intentions in Afghanistan By Loschmann, Craig; Siegel, Melissa
  22. Slave Prices and Productivity in the 18th Century at the Cape of Good Hope: The Winners and Losers from the Trade By Sophia Du Plessis, Ada Jansen and Dieter von Fintel

  1. By: Cinnirella, Francesco (Ifo Institute, CESifo and CEPR); Hornung, Erik (Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Financez)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of landownership concentration on school enrollment for nineteenth century Prussia. Prussia is an interesting laboratory given its decentralized educational system and the presence of heterogeneous agricultural institutions. We find that landownership concentration, a proxy for the institution of serfdom, has a negative effect on schooling. This effect diminishes substantially towards the end of the century. Causality of this relationship is confirmed by introducing soil texture to identify exogenous farm-size variation. Panel estimates further rule out unobserved heterogeneity. We present several robustness checks which shed some light on possible mechanisms.
    Keywords: Land concentration, Institutions, Serfdom, Peasants' emancipation, Education, Prussian economic history
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Gihleb, Rania (Boston University); Giuntella, Osea (University of Oxford)
    Abstract: This paper examines the causal effects of Catholic schooling on educational attainment. Using a novel instrumental-variable approach that exploits an exogenous shock to the Catholic school system, we show that the positive correlation between Catholic schooling and student outcomes is explained by selection bias. Spearheaded by the universal call to holiness and the opening to lay leadership, the reforms that occurred at the Second Vatican Council (Vatican II) in the early 1960s produced a dramatic exogenous change in the cost/benefit ratio of religious life in the Catholic Church. The decline in vocations that followed contributed to a significant increase in costs and, in many cases, to the closure of Catholic schools. We document that this decline was heterogeneous across US dioceses, and that it was more marked in those dioceses governed by a liberal bishop. Merging diocesan data drawn from the Official Catholic Directory (1960-1980) and the US Census, we show that that the variation in the supply of female religious teachers across US dioceses is strongly related to Catholic schooling. Using the abrupt decline in female vocations as an instrument for Catholic schooling, we find no evidence of positive effects on student outcomes.
    Keywords: Catholic schools, instrumental variable, selection
    JEL: I20 J24 N3
    Date: 2013–11
  3. By: Bijwaard, Govert (NIDI - Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton)
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of the income earned in the host country on return migration of labor migrants from developing countries. We use a three-state correlated competing risks model to account for the strong dependence of labor market status and the income earned. Our analysis is based on administrative panel data of recent labor immigrants from developing countries to the Netherlands. The empirical results show that intensities of return migration are U-shaped with respect to migrants' income, implying a higher intensity in low- and high- income groups. Indeed, the lowest-income group has the highest probability of return. We also find that ignoring the interdependence of labor market status and the income earned leads to an overestimating the income effect on departure.
    Keywords: migration dynamics, labour market transitions, competing risks, immigrant assimilation
    JEL: F22 J61 C41
    Date: 2013–11
  4. By: Patrick Kline; Enrico Moretti
    Abstract: Most countries exhibit large and persistent geographical differences in wages, income and unemployment rates. A growing class of "place based" policies attempt to address these differences through public investments and subsidies that target disadvantaged neighborhoods, cities or regions. Place based policies have the potential to profoundly affect the location of economic activity, along with the wages, employment, and industry mix of communities. These programs are widespread in the U.S. and throughout the world, but have only recently been studied closely by economists. We consider the following questions: Who benefits from place based interventions? Do the national benefits outweigh the costs? What sorts of interventions are most likely to be effective?To study these questions, we develop a simple spatial equilibrium model designed to characterize the welfare effects of place based policies on the local and the national economy. Using this model, we critically evaluate the economic rationales for place based policies and assess the latest evidence on their effects. We conclude with some lessons for policy and directions for future research.
    JEL: H1 H2 H3 H4 H7 J0 R0
    Date: 2013–11
  5. By: Elizabeth Brainerd (Economics Department, Brandeis University); Nidhiya Menon (Economics Department, Brandeis University)
    Abstract: This paper studies early childhood health in India, Bangladesh and Nepal, focusing on inequalities in anthropometric outcomes by religious adherence. India and Nepal have Hindu majorities, while Bangladesh is predominantly Muslim. Results confirm a relative Muslim advantage for children less than 12 months of age in height-for-age and weight-for-age z scores primarily in India, possibly reflecting better nutritional intake from a non-vegetarian diet and the positive health endowment of Muslim women who tend to be taller than Hindu women. However this advantage disappears beyond 12 months of age, at which point Hindu children in all three countries are found to have significantly better anthropometric outcomes than Muslim children. We report tests that rule out mortality selection and undertake falsification and robustness exercises to affirm these findings.
    Keywords: Child Health, Religion, Hindu, Muslim, India, Bangladesh, Nepal
    JEL: O12 I12 Z12
    Date: 2013–10
  6. By: Holden, Stein (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Bezu, Sosina (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: We have used gender-disaggregated household panel data from 2007 and 2012 in combination with dictator games and hawk-dove games to assess the effects of joint land certification of husbands and wives on wives’ involvement in land-related decisions within households. Wives’ stated preferences for stronger land rights to women and husbands’ stated preferences for the traditional weak position of women were significantly affecting the wives’ degree of within household involvement in land-related decisions in opposite directions. Within-household generosity as expressed in dictator game experiments between husbands and wives, was correlated with stronger involvement of wives in land-related decisions.
    Keywords: Joint land certification; gender; empowerment of wives; experiments; Ethiopia
    JEL: D03 J16 Q15
    Date: 2013–11–18
  7. By: Thiemo Fetzer; Oliver Pardo; Amar Shanghavi
    Abstract: This paper answers the question whether extreme power rationing can induce changes in human fertility and thus, generate "mini baby booms". We study a period of extensive power rationing in Colombia that lasted for most of 1992 and see whether this has increased births in the subsequent year, exploiting variation from a newly constructed measure of the extent of power rationing. We find that power rationing increased the probability that a mother had a baby by 4 percent and establish that this effect is permanent as mothers who had a black out baby were not able to adjust their total long-run fertility. Exploiting this variation, we show that women who had a black-out baby find themselves in worse socio-economic conditions more than a decade later, highlighting potential social costs of unplanned motherhood.
    Keywords: Fertility, infrastructure, blackouts, unplanned parenthood
    JEL: J13 J16 O18 H41
    Date: 2013–11
  8. By: Gassmann, Franziska (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG); Siegel, Melissa (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG); Vanore, Michaella (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG); Waidler, Jennifer (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG)
    Abstract: This paper empirically evaluates the well-being of children "left behind" by migrant household members in Moldova. Using data derived from a nationally-representative, large-scale household survey conducted between September 2011 and February 2012 among 3,255 households (1,801 of which contained children aged 0-17) across Moldova, different dimensions of child well-being are empirically evaluated. Well-being of children in Moldova is divided into eight different dimensions, each of which is comprised of several indicators. Each indicator is examined individually and then aggregated into an index. Well-being outcomes are then compared by age group, primary caregiver, migration status of the household (current migrant, return migrant, or no migration experience), and by who has migrated within the household. It was found that migration in and of itself is not associated with negative outcomes on children's well-being in any of the dimensions analysed, nor does it matter who in the household has migrated. Children living in return migrant households, however, attain higher rates of well-being in specific dimensions like emotional health and material well-being. The age of the child and the material living standards experienced by the household are much stronger predictors of well-being than household migration status in a number of different dimensions. The results suggest that migration does not play a significant role in shaping child well-being outcomes, contrary to the scenarios described in much past research. This paper is the first (to the authors' knowledge) to link migration and multidimensional child poverty.
    Keywords: Moldova, migration, poverty, child poverty, multi-dimensional poverty
    JEL: I32 F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2013
  9. By: Zhelyazkova, Nevena (UNU-MERIT / MGSoG)
    Abstract: This paper illustrates how sequence analysis can be used to analyse work-family reconciliation strategies of parents and in particular the role of parental leave in these strategies. The use of administrative records makes a detailed, longitudinal analysis possible, which enables a holistic approach to the question from the broader life-course view. In addition, as an explorative technique, sequence analysis results are a powerful instrument for formulating further research questions. For the paper anonymous administrative records of mothers and fathers working in Luxembourg are used.
    Keywords: Work-family reconciliation, parental leave, work-family trajectory, sequence analysis
    JEL: J13 J16 J18
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Mohiburrahman Iqbal
    Abstract: This paper measures vulnerability to expected poverty (VEP) an ex-anti measure of well-being for Afghanistan using a single cross-section data. We measure VEP using household consumption expenditure during 2007/08 to predict probability of future consumption being lower than a specific probability threshold. Our results show that 66 per cent of Afghan population is vulnerable to poverty in near future compared to 42 per cent of the population who currently live under the poverty line. Our results show that poverty and vulnerability vary across geography and seasons and interestingly, areas most exposed to war have the lowest levels of poverty. The results further indicate that household head education, household head being male, housing condition, and ownership of irrigated agriculture land have a positive effect on consumption. In contrast, the fact that the household is rural or nomadic and proportion of family members under 15 and over 50 years of age have a negative effect on household consumption.
    Keywords: Vulnerability, Poverty, Afghanistan
    JEL: C23 C25 C31 I32
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Ong, C.; De Witte, Kristof
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Christine Schnor (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: This article investigates how the length of the non-residential partnership phase, which is known as LAT (living apart together), relates to separation behavior. There is a large body of literature on the effects of cohabiting prior to marriage on union stability. However, relatively few studies have examined how the LAT period before moving in together influences separation risks. This is surprising, as this study has found that 90 percent of the unions were preceded by an LAT period. On the one hand, we might expect to find that a short LAT period has a negative influence on union stability, because the partners have relatively little information about each other, and mismatches are therefore possible. It is, however, also conceivable that a short LAT period prior to moving in together is indicative of the couple’s commitment to the union. Data for the empirical analyses came from the German Family Panel. The dataset includes 8,230 residential non-marital and marital unions of 2,899 men and 3,866 women born in 1971-1973 and in 1981-1983. Multilevel piecewise constant survival models were estimated to assess the influence of the length of the LAT (living apart together) period on stability. The results reveal that union stability is positively related to the length of the LAT phase. However, the separation rates of unions without a prior LAT period are also low. The LAT stage has a similar impact on cohabitations and on marriages. The findings suggest that the LAT period is a significant phase in the partnership which enables couples to acquire information about the quality of the partnership.
    Keywords: Germany, family stability
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2013–10
  13. By: Margolis, David N. (Paris School of Economics); Miotti, Luis (University of Paris 13); Mouhoud, El Mouhoub (Université Paris-Dauphine); Oudinet, Joël (University of Paris 13)
    Abstract: This article analyses the distributional impact of remittances across two regions of Algerian emigration (Nedroma and Idjeur) using an original survey we conducted of 1,200 households in 2011. Remittances and especially the role played by foreign pensions decrease the Gini index by nearly 4 % for the two Algerian regions, with the effect in Idjeur being twice as large as Nedroma. At the same time, they help reduce poverty by nearly 13 percentage points. Remittances have a strong positive impact on very poor families in Idjeur but much less in Nedroma, where poor families suffer from a “double loss” due to the absence of their migrants and the fact that the latter do not send money home.
    Keywords: remittances, migration, poverty, inequality, Algeria
    JEL: F24 O15 O55
    Date: 2013–11
  14. By: Deuchert, Eva; Kauer, Lukas
    Abstract: Many countries provide hiring subsidies aimed at promoting the employment of people with disabilities. The effectiveness of these subsidy schemes remains unclear. The subsidy lowers wages and may thus increase employment, but may also signal lower quality of the applicant (who has to disclose a disability), which deter employers from hiring. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of employer incentives provided by the Swiss Disability Insurance using a small scale social field experiment. Participants write application letters, where it is randomly decided whether the application discloses the subsidy to the potential employer or not. The effectiveness of the hiring subsidy is measured by call-back rates for interviews. The study is conducted in two waves. The first wave focuses on graduates from sheltered Vocational Education & Training Programs. The second wave is implemented in a sample of clients from employment consulting services. Our results reveal that the subsidy is ineffective or even counterproductive in a group of adolescents who are at the end of their vocational training program, but may increase call-back rates in a group of clients of job coaching services.
    Keywords: Hiring subsidies, Effectiveness, Social field experiment
    JEL: I38 C93
    Date: 2013–11
  15. By: Baumann, Florian; Denter, Philipp; Friehe, Tim
    Abstract: This paper analyzes a contest in which defenders move first, have private information about the value of the objects they are trying to protect, and determine the observability of their defense efforts. The equilibrium consistent with the intuitive criterion depends on the distribution of defender types, the magnitude of the difference between defender types, and the asymmetry between defender and aggressor regarding the valuation of the objects at stake in the contest. Our setting captures key characteristics of the interaction between households and thieves, focusing on the classic distinction between observable and unobservable private precautions against crime. An analysis of welfare implications determines that a setting in which information about the value of the protected objects is private results in a better outcome than a complete-information scenario. --
    Keywords: Contest,Private Information,Timing,Crime,Private Precaution Against Crime
    JEL: D62 D82 K42
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Silvia Bortot (Department of Economics and Management, University of Trento); Ricardo Alberto Marques Pereira (Department of Economics and Management, University of Trento)
    Abstract: In the context of Social Welfare and Choquet integration, we briefly review, on the one hand, the generalized Gini welfare functions and inequality indices for populations of n>=2 individuals, and on the other hand, the Mobius representation framework for Choquet integration, particularly in the case of k-additive symmetric capacities. We recall the binomial decomposition of OWA functions due to Calvo and De Baets [14] and we examine it in the restricted context of generalized Gini welfare functions, with the addition of appropriate S-concavity conditions. We show that the original expression of the binomial decomposition can be formulated in terms of two equivalent functional bases, the binomial Gini welfare functions and the Atkinson-Kolm-Sen (AKS) associated binomial Gini inequality indices, according to Blackorby and Donaldson's correspondence formula. The binomial Gini pairs of welfare functions and inequality indices are described by a parameter j = 1,...,n, associated with the distributional judgements involved. The j-th generalized Gini pair focuses on the (n - j + 1)/n poorest fraction of the population and is insensitive to income transfers within the complementary richest fraction of the population.
    Keywords: Social welfare, Generalized Gini welfare functions and inequality indices, symmetric capacities and Choquet integrals, OWA functions, Binomial decomposition and k-additivity.
    JEL: D31 D63 I31
    Date: 2013–09
  17. By: Ong, Cheng Boon (UNU-MERIT / MGSoG); De Witte, Kristof (Top Institute for Evidence Based Education Research, Maastricht University, and Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven)
    Abstract: This paper examines ethnically differentiated preferences for neighbourhood ethnic composition among homeowners in the Netherlands. Borrowing from price hedonic theory, it tests a fully nonparametric empirical model of housing choice. We exploit rich neighbourhood-level administrative data linked to the 2009 'Dutch Housing and Living Survey'. The nonparametric analysis proceeds in two steps. First, housing prices are decomposed into attribute-specific 'implicit prices'. These price hedonic estimates indicate a significant negative effect of the percentage of non-western minority residents in a neighbourhood on housing prices. For the second step and using the recovered household preference parameters, the marginal willingness to pay for an increase in non-western minority neighbours is estimated. Our model predicts an average decrease in dwelling price of €697 for every 10 per cent increase in non-western neighbours. The paper finds evidence of assimilation with some homeowners of non-western migrant background having a negative willingness to pay for living next to more co-ethnic neighbours.
    Keywords: demand estimation, hedonic price, heterogeneous preference, nonparametric, generalized kernel function, ethnic segregation
    JEL: R20 R21 R23 R31 R32
    Date: 2013
  18. By: Robert G. Wood; Reginald Covington
    Keywords: BSF, Building Strong Families, Unmarried Dads, Father Involvement
    JEL: I
    Date: 2013–11–09
  19. By: Allison V. Thompkins
    Keywords: Earnings Consequences, Americans with Disabilities, Long-Term Care, Disability
    JEL: I J
    Date: 2013–11–30
  20. By: Catia Batista (Universidade Nova de Lisboa); Janis Umblijs (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)
    Abstract: Do more risk loving migrants opt for self-employment? This is a question especially relevant for policy makers designing selective immigration policies in countries of destination. In order to provide a rigorous answer to it, we use a novel vignette-adjusted measure of risk preferences in the domain of work to investigate the link between risk aversion and entrepreneurship in migrant communities. Using a representative household survey of the migrant population in the Greater Dublin Area, we find a significant negative relationship between risk aversion and entrepreneurship. In addition, our results show that the use of vignettes improves the significance of the results, as they correct for differential item functioning (where respondents interpret the self-evaluation scale in different ways) between entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs, and corrects for variation in the use of self-evaluation scales between migrants from different countries of origin.
    Keywords: Migration, Risk Aversion, Entrepreneurship
    JEL: F22 J01 J15 J61 L26
    Date: 2013–11
  21. By: Loschmann, Craig (UNU-MERIT / MGSoG); Siegel, Melissa (UNU-MERIT / MGSoG)
    Abstract: This study explores the influence of vulnerability on migration intentions within the context of Afghanistan. While it is commonplace to conceptualize migration as being driven by certain economic-related factors, it is reasonable to assume that in an insecure setting like Afghanistan the difference between voluntary and involuntary movement is not easily distinguishable, making it necessary to approach the subject through a spectrum which does not presuppose migration is strictly economic in nature. With this in mind, we consider the issue through the broader lens of household vulnerability, a measure which incorporates a range of socio-economic factors allowing for a more comprehensive analysis. We first construct a profile of household vulnerability through individual indicators of deprivation along four principle dimensions, and then perform a regression analysis estimating the influence on migration intentions. Our results provide clear evidence that vulnerable households have a lower likelihood of concrete plans to migrate. This result supports the suggestion that it is not the "poorest of the poor", or in our case the "most vulnerable of the vulnerable" who aspire to move, indicating households have a realistic understanding of their capabilities taking into consideration the inherent costs and risks associated with cross-border movement.
    Keywords: Migration Intentions, Migration Motivations, Migration, Motivations, Vulnerability, Poverty, Afghanistan
    JEL: I32 O15
    Date: 2013
  22. By: Sophia Du Plessis, Ada Jansen and Dieter von Fintel
    Abstract: The question about the productivity of slavery is a strongly debated issue, for example in the USA the seminal work by Engerman and Fogel (1974), “Time on the Crossâ€, sparked a flurry of publications debating the issue from different angles. The debate about the economic worth of slaves in the Cape of Good Hope already started with Pasques de Chavonnes (the only member of the Council of Policy who opposed the principle of using slave labour) who in 1717 remarked that slavery would inhibit economic development since ‘the money spent on slavery is dead money’. In this paper we provide an overview of slave prices and the value of their marginal productivity in the Cape Colony and ultimately we ask whether Cape slavery was “dead moneyâ€. Our approach is to estimate a hedonic price function for slaves in the Cape Colony for the time period 1700-1725 using the Changing Hands database, and comparing these with slave productivity estimates from the opgaafrollen. The initial price paid for a slave is, by conjecture, constituted by current marginal productivity of slaves plus the expected net present value of slave characteristics (which by implication will yield productivity returns in the future). These productive characteristics include gender, age and origin. We furthermore investigate whether the gradual increase in slave prices was driven by overall price levels in the economy, by the importation of “better quality†slaves over time or by the policy induced change in demand for labour away from European wage labour to slave labour. Lastly, we investigate whether slave prices matched the value of their marginal product by comparing estimates of the hedonic price series with estimates of marginal productivity. Real prices track marginal productivity closely, suggesting that slavery was profitable over most of the period. However, this effect is heterogeneous, with small farmers showing no signs of profitability and the opposite for large farmers. Small farmers attempted to mimic the production process of large farmers unsuccessfully, and consequently many impoverished farmers had made over-investments in slavery.
    Keywords: Slave prices, productivity
    Date: 2013

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