nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2013‒10‒11
28 papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. The Difficult Case of Persuading Women: Experimental Evidence from Childcare By Vincenzo Galasso; Paola Profeta; Chiara Pronzato; Francesco Billari
  2. The changing geography of gender in India By Scott Fulford
  3. Childhood Health and Sibling Outcomes: The Shared Burden and Benefit of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic By John Parman
  4. A Partner in Crime: Assortative Matching and Bias in the Crime Market By Gavrilova, Evelina
  5. Fifty Years of Family Planning: New Evidence on the Long-Run Effects of Increasing Access to Contraception By Martha J. Bailey
  6. Migration to the US and Marital Mobility By Rebekka Christopoulou; Dean R. Lillard
  7. MDGs and gender inequality By Vani S. Kulkarni1; Manoj Pandey; Raghav Gaiha
  8. Taxation and Labor Force Participation: The Case of Italy By Fabrizio Colonna; Stefania Marcassa
  9. Absent With Leave: The Implications of Demographic Change for Worker Absenteeism By Finn Poschmann; Omar Chatur
  10. Age-dependent Taxation, Retirement Behavior, and Work Hours Over the Life Cycle By Julian Diaz Saavedra
  11. Unemployment Duration of Spouses: Evidence From France By Stefania Marcassa
  12. The ex-ante effects of non-contributory pensions in Colombia and Peru By Javier Olivera; Blanca Zuluaga
  13. Population, poverty, and climate change By Das Gupta, Monica
  14. Tous les pays du monde (2013) By Gilles Pison
  15. Immigration policy and birth weight: positive externalities in Italian law By Pieroni, Luca; Salmasi, Luca
  16. Capability-Deprivation as Determinant of Underweight in Children: Perspectives from an Indian Case-Study By P. G. Ardeni; C. Tinonin
  17. Illiquid Life Annuities By Hippolyte d’Albis; Johanna Etner
  18. Un Test sulle Ipotesi delle Proiezioni a medio-lungo termine della Spesa Sanitaria By Salerno, Nicola Carmine
  19. The Intergenerational Inequality of Health in China By Tor Eriksson; Jay Pan; Xuezheng Qin
  20. Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle By Andreas Fagereng; Charles Gottlieb; Luigi Guiso
  21. Will Ugly Betty ever find a job in Italy? By Giovanni BUSETTA; Fabio FIORILLO
  22. Delegating home care for the elderly to external caregivers? An empirical study on Italian data By M. Lippi Bruni; C. Ugolini
  23. Republic of Uzbekistan : Improving Early Childhood Care and Education By World Bank
  24. Affection, speed dating and heart breaking By Konrad, Kai A.
  25. Earnings Adjustment Frictions: Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test By Alexander M. Gelber; Damon Jones; Daniel W. Sacks
  26. Development at the border : policies and national integration in Cote d'Ivoire and its neighbors By Cogneau, Denis; Mesple-Somps, Sandrine; Spielvogel, Gilles
  27. The population of the world (2013) By Gilles Pison
  28. Accounting for Breakout in Britain: The Industrial Revolution through a Malthusian Lens By Tepper, Alexander; Borowiecki, Karol Jan

  1. By: Vincenzo Galasso; Paola Profeta; Chiara Pronzato; Francesco Billari
    Abstract: Gender stereotypes are well established also among women. Yet, a recent literature suggests that earning from other women experience about the effects of maternal employment on children outcomes may increase female labor force participation. To further explore this channel, we design a randomized survey experiment, in which 1500 Italian women aged 20 to 40 are exposed to two informational treatments on the positive consequences of formal childcare on children future educational attainments. Surprisingly, we find that women reduce their intended labor supply. However, this result hides strong heterogenous effects: high educated non-mothers are persuaded by the informational treatments to increase their intended use of formal child care (and to pay more); whereas low educated non-mothers to reduce their intended labor supply. These findings are consistent with women responding to monetary incentive and/or having different preferences for maternal care. These heterogenous responses across women send a warning signal about the true effectiveness — in terms of take up rates — of often advocated public policies regarding formal child care. Keywords: gender culture, female labour supply, education JEL Classification: J2, J16, J13, J18, Z1,C99
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Scott Fulford (Boston College)
    Abstract: This paper examines the changing distribution of where women and girls live in India at the smallest scale possible: India's nearly 600,000 villages. The village level variation in the proportion female is far larger than the variation across districts. Decomposing the variance, I show that village India is becoming more homogeneous in its preferences for boys even as that preference becomes more pronounced. A consequence is that 70% of girls grow up in villages where they are the distinct minority. Most Indian women move on marriage, yet marriage migration has almost no gender equalizing influence. Further, by linking all villages across censuses, I show that most changes in village infrastructure are not related to changes in child gender. Gaining primary schools and increases in female literacy decrease the proportion of girls. The results suggests that there are no easy policy solutions for addressing the increasing masculinization of Indian society.
    Keywords: Marriage migration; Sex ratios; Son preference; Geographic distribution of women; Asia; India
    JEL: O15 J12 J16
    Date: 2013–09–30
  3. By: John Parman
    Abstract: There is a growing body of evidence showing that negative childhood health shocks have long term consequences in terms of health, human capital formation and labor market outcomes. However, by altering the relative prices of child quality across siblings, these health shocks can also affect investments in and the outcomes of healthy siblings. This paper uses the 1918 influenza pandemic to test how household resources are reallocated when there is a health shock to one child. Using a new dataset linking census data on childhood households to health and education data from military enlistment records, I show that families with a child in utero during the pandemic shifted resources to older siblings of that child, leading to significantly higher educational attainments and high school graduation rates for these older siblings. There are no significant effects for younger siblings born after the pandemic. These results suggest that the reallocation of household resources in response to a negative childhood health shock tended to reinforce rather than compensate for differences in endowments across children.
    JEL: I1 J13 J24 N3 N32
    Date: 2013–10
  4. By: Gavrilova, Evelina
    Abstract: In this paper I analyze partnership formation within the property crime market in the United States. I develop a static matching model, in which a criminal forms a partnership with a counterpart with the same probability of success. Using individual arrest data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, I pinpoint matches where the underlying ability of two partners differ. This difference in ability is correlated to observable characteristics, making the case for discrimination. By comparing the regression results to success means for the same demographic groups, I find patterns consistent with discrimination. Beside the patterns of gender and racial segregation, I find that in white-black matches, blacks outperform whites, consistent with success means. In male-female matches the female's success realization is higher than the male's, contrary to the difference in success means, where males on average outperform females, hinting at a distaste premium.
    Keywords: Assortative Matching, Bias, Crime, Discrimination, Organized Crime
    JEL: C78 J16 J71 K42
    Date: 2013–10–01
  5. By: Martha J. Bailey
    Abstract: This paper assembles new evidence on some of the longer-term consequences of U.S. family planning policies, defined in this paper as those increasing legal or financial access to modern contraceptives. The analysis leverages two large policy changes that occurred during the 1960s and 1970s: first, the interaction of the birth control pill’s introduction with Comstock-era restrictions on the sale of contraceptives and the repeal of these laws after Griswold v. Connecticut in 1965; and second, the expansion of federal funding for local family planning programs from 1964 to 1973. Building on previous research that demonstrates both policies’ effects on fertility rates, I find suggestive evidence that individuals’ access to contraceptives increased their children’s college completion, labor force participation, wages, and family incomes decades later.
    JEL: I18 J1 J13 J16 J24 N12
    Date: 2013–10
  6. By: Rebekka Christopoulou; Dean R. Lillard
    Abstract: We combine survey data on British and German immigrants in the US with data on natives in Britain and Germany to estimate the causal effect of migration on educational mobility through cross-national marriage. To control for selective mating, we instrument educational attainment using government spending on education in the years each person was of school-age. To control for selective migration, we instrument the migration decision using inflows of immigrants to the US during puberty and early adulthood. We find that migration causes women to marry up and men to marry down, in line with cross-country differences in the availability of educated spouses and migrant-native differentials in the timing of marriage and financial maturity. However, the way migrants self-select into migration and marriage dampens down these effects.
    JEL: J1 J12 J15 Z1 Z13
    Date: 2013–10
  7. By: Vani S. Kulkarni1; Manoj Pandey; Raghav Gaiha
    Abstract: Abstract As the countdown to 2015 has begun, debates about the continuation of the MDGs and their reformulation have taken on greater urgency and significance. Our view is that there is a need to reformulate them to better reflect deprivations and inequities that are pervasive but not sufficiently emphasised in the present version. A case in point is gender inequality. While various dimensions of gender inequality are included in the MDGs, we argue that these reflect a somewhat narrow focus – especially because the deprivation that women face from the womb to the rest of their lives – is not fully captured. Following Amartya Sen and others, we focus on the phenomenon of ‘missing women’ that best captures the cumulative impact of multiple deprivations to which they are subjected. Our analysis reinforces the case for this measure, and broadens and updates recent estimates of missing girls and women. The key questions addressed are the reasons underlying the continuing increase in the number of missing women in China and India. We broaden this measure by including: (i) missing adult women; (ii) excess maternal mortality ratio; (iii) casualties resulting from violent conflicts and the forms these take; and (iv) domestic violence against women. Even though the magnitudes differ, these together are a brutal violation of women’s human rights that remains pervasive in a large part of the developing world – especially Asia and North Africa. The perspective on gender inequality offered here may seem daunting, but raises concerns that go much beyond the somewhat narrow focus that the MDGs embody. The policy implications are accordingly more formidable, but underline the centrality of women’s empowerment through education and employment opportunities, social networks that give women voice to express their concerns arising from life-long deprivations that often take brutal forms, expansion of health services to reduce infant and maternal mortality risks, and enforcement of laws that penalise violation of women’s human rights.
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Fabrizio Colonna (Banca d'Italia - Banca d'Italia); Stefania Marcassa (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise)
    Abstract: Italy has the lowest labor force participation of women among European countries. Moreover, the participation rate of married women is positively correlated to their husbands' income. We show that a high tax schedule together with tax credits and transfers raise the burden of two-earner households, generating disincentives to work. We estimate a structural labor supply model for women, and use the estimated parameters to simulate the effects of alternative revenue-neutral tax systems. We find that joint taxation implies a drop in the participation rate. Conversely, working tax credit and gender-based taxation boost it, with the effects of the former concentrated on low educated women.
    Keywords: female labor force participation, Italian tax system, second earner tax rate, joint taxation, gender-based taxation, working tax credit
    Date: 2013–10–02
  9. By: Finn Poschmann (C.D. Howe Institute); Omar Chatur (C.D. Howe Institute)
    Abstract: Over the past 30 years, sick days have risen in Canada’s workforce, overall, raising important questions about why days lost owing to reported illness are climbing, and how demographic and institutional change may have affected reported rates and may do so in the future. The data show striking differences in absentee-rate trends based on age, sex, and union status. Days lost owing to illness vary across age groups: as the demographic weight of Canada’s population shifts from younger to older categories, reported days lost rise. Absence rates for female versus male workers of all ages and types have diverged over the course of the last few decades, with females taking more days off and men’s rate showing little change. Public-sector employees report more workplace absences than do private-sector employees. Workers in unionized settings take more sick leave days than those in non-union settings. Workplaces and government practices and policies must adjust to these realities, through a combination of accommodation, flexibility and planning.
    Keywords: Social Policy, Labour Markets
    JEL: J21
  10. By: Julian Diaz Saavedra (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.)
    Abstract: We use a computable overlapping generations model economy, which matches the stylized facts con- cerning retirement behavior, to analyze the consequences of three reforms designed to reduce tax rates on the labor supply of older workers. We nd that these reforms increase the participation rates of the elderly and show that the gains, in terms of old age work hours, are non-trivial. However, we also nd that the total labor supply response to the reforms is not so much an increase in total lifetime hours as it is a reallocation of hours over the life cycle. Finally, we show that these reforms, designed to increase the length of the working life of individuals, may not increase output.
    Keywords: Computable general equilibrium, labor supply, retirement, age-dependent taxation.
    JEL: C68 J22 J26 H31
    Date: 2013–09–25
  11. By: Stefania Marcassa (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the conditional probability of leaving unemployment of French married individuals from 1991 to 2002. We find that the effect of spousal labor income on unemployment duration is asymmetric for men and women. In particular, the probability of men to find a job is increasing in wife labor income, while it is decreasing in husband's earnings for women. To adjust for endogenous selection into marriage, we use the quarter of birth as an instrumental variable for the spousal wage. Finally, we show that introducing a breadwinner stigma in a joint job search model generates the positive correlation observed for men in the data.
    Keywords: unemployment duration, hazard models, labor income, marriage, joint search theory
    Date: 2013–10–02
  12. By: Javier Olivera (University College Dublin, Geary Institute and PEARL Institute for Research on Social Inequality, University of Luxembourg); Blanca Zuluaga (Department of Economics, Icesi University)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the ex-ante effects of the implementation of a Non Contributory Pension (NCP) program in Colombia and Peru. Relying on household survey data, we simulate the potential impact of the transfer on poverty, inequality, fiscal cost, and the probability of affiliation to the contributory pension system. This last effect is the most direct behavioral effect one can expect from the implementation of a NCP scheme. For the behavioral response we estimate a Nested Logit Model. Our results show that a NCP in Colombia and Peru contributes to the reduction of poverty and inequality among the elderly, particularly in rural areas at affordable fiscal costs. Furthermore, there is not a large impact on the probability of affiliation to contributory pensions when the program is targeted to the poor (and extreme poor), with the exception of Peruvian women for whom there is always a sizeable reduction on their probability of affiliation to the contributory pension system.
    Keywords: Non-contributory pensions, social security, old-age, poverty.
    JEL: D30 I32 I38 J14 J26
    Date: 2013–08
  13. By: Das Gupta, Monica
    Abstract: The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to rise rapidly in the developing world due to their economic growth and population growth -- the latter most notably in the poorest countries. Lowering fertility has many benefits for the poorest countries. Studies indicate that, in high fertility settings, fertility decline facilitates economic growth and poverty reduction. It also reduces the pressure on livelihoods, and frees up resources to cope with climate change. And it helps avert some of the projected global warming, which will benefit these countries far more than those that lie at higher latitudes and/or have more resources to cope with climate change. Natural experiments indicate that family planning programs are effective in helping reduce fertility, and that they are highly pro-poor in their impact. While the rest of the world wrestles withthe complexities of reducing emissions, the poorest countries will gain much from simple programs to lower fertility.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Health Monitoring&Evaluation
    Date: 2013–10–01
  14. By: Gilles Pison (Ined)
    Abstract: Tous les deux ans, Population & Sociétés publie un numéro intitulé Tous les pays du monde présentant un tableau de la population mondiale. Celle-ci compte un peu plus de 7 milliards d'habitants en 2013. Elle a été multipliée par sept au cours des deux derniers siècles, et devrait continuer à croître jusqu'à atteindre 10 à 11 milliards à la fin du XXIe siècle.
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Pieroni, Luca; Salmasi, Luca
    Abstract: A decade ago, the political party of the Italian center-right voted a law restricting immigration. It emphasized severity in granting permits to stay and limited illegal immigration. However, the law became effective in early 2005, when the Italian parliament approved the decree for its application. Only one article of this law, granting amnesty for illegal immigrant workers, was immediately effective, and gave irregular immigrants the opportunity to regularize their status. As a result, 650,000 immigrants were granted the status of foreign nationals in Italy. In this paper, we examine whether the increase in the prevalence of "regular immigrants" has led to an improvement in health outcomes of babies born to migrant women, measured in terms of birth weight. Two hitherto unexploited birth sample surveys published by Italian Institute of Statistics in 2002 and 2005 were used for this study. The surveys, concern interviews with 100,000 mothers who delivered a child between July 2000 and June 2001 in the first survey and in 2003 in the second survey. Our estimates show that regular immigration reduced the probability of low birth weight, indicating that economic benefits in place at birth may be strengthened by increased future productivity.
    Keywords: birth-weight, immigrants regularization, propensity score matching, difference-in-differences
    JEL: I10 I12 I18
    Date: 2013–10–01
  16. By: P. G. Ardeni; C. Tinonin
    Abstract: The Capability Approach argues individual advantage should be evaluated in the space of freedom of choice, that is in the space of capability. Yet, empirical applications are hampered by the lack of appropriate data and indicators. This paper aims at providing a reliable and valid indicator measuring deprivation of capability as lack of relative autonomy. Furthermore, it explores its usefulness through an ad hoc case study. Thus, it analyzes the role of women's relative autonomy for the underweight of infants and young children in a rural patriarchal community of India. Inspired by the extended model of care presented in Engle, Menon and Haddad (1999), we estimate regression coefficients in the model by Ordinary Least Square on a probabilistic random sample purposely collected. Results point out autonomy in mobility in a patriarchal society is negatively associated with the nutritional status of children. The norm-based economic framework suggests focusing on ‘external capabilities’ at the community level for policy interventions aimed at increasing freedom of choice of present and future generations.
    JEL: J13 J16 I32
    Date: 2013–09
  17. By: Hippolyte d’Albis; Johanna Etner
    Abstract: In this article, we consider illiquid life annuity contracts and show that they may be preferred to Yaari (1965)'s liquid contracts. In an overlapping-generation economy, liquid life annuities are demanded only if the equilibrium is dynamically inefficient. Alternatively, an equilibrium displaying a positive demand for illiquid life annuities is efficient. In this latter case, the welfare at steady-state is larger if illiquid life annuity contracts are available.
    Keywords: annuity, overlapping generation model
    JEL: E21 D11
    Date: 2013
  18. By: Salerno, Nicola Carmine
    Abstract: The same methodology Oecd and Ecofin apply to project future trends of health care expenditue is here applied to reconstruct backwards Italian health care expenditure. The time horizon is 1988-2012. Results are described and argued. Important evidence emerges on the historical value of the elasticity of per-capita expenditure to per-capita Gdp. This value, of course, brings also some information on what this elasticity can prove in the future. It is the first test developed on past trends using profiles of per-capita expenditure per age brackets, and applied to Italy.
    Keywords: health care, projections, halth care projections, medium-long term, Oecd, Awg, Ecofin, Imf, International Monetary Fund, Ageing Working Group, Ageing Report, European Commission, sustainability, public finances, elasticity, Gdp, per-capita expenditue, per-capita Gdp, historical trends, welfare system, pay-as-you-go, age brackets, Europan Economy, Italy, nicola c. alerno, nicola salerno, nc salerno, salerno nc,, nicolacsalerno
    JEL: H00 H4 H40 H5 H51 H54 I0 I00 I1 I10 I18 I31 J1 J11 J14
    Date: 2013–10–05
  19. By: Tor Eriksson (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University); Jay Pan (West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University); Xuezheng Qin (School of Economics, Peking University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the intergenerational health transmission in China using the 1991-2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data. Three decades of persistent economic growth in China has been accompanied by high income inequality, which may in turn be caused by the inequality of opportunity in education and health. In this paper, we find that there is a strong correlation of health status between parent and their offspring in both the urban and rural sectors, suggesting the existence of intergenerational health inequality in China. The correlation is persistent with different health measures and various model specifications, and is robust when unobserved household heterogeneity is removed. We also find that the parents’ (especially the mothers’) socio-economic characteristics and environmental / health care choices are strongly correlated with their own and their children’s health, supporting the “nature-nurture interaction” hypothesis. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition further indicates that 15% to 27% of the rural-urban inequality of child health is attributable to the endowed inequality from their parents’ health. An important policy implication of our study is that the increasing inequality of income and opportunity in China can be ameliorated through the improvement of the current generation’s health status and living standards.
    Keywords: Intergenerational transmission, Health, Inequality, China
    JEL: I14 I12
    Date: 2013–09–30
  20. By: Andreas Fagereng (Statistics Norway); Charles Gottlieb (University of Oxford); Luigi Guiso (EIEF and CEPR)
    Abstract: We study the life cycle of portfolio allocation following for 15 years a large random sample of Norwegian households using error-free data on all components of households’ investments drawn from the Tax Registry. Both, participation in the stock market and the portfolio share in stocks, have important life cycle patterns. Participation is limited at all ages but follows a hump-shaped profile which peaks around retirement; the share invested in stocks among the participants is high and flat for the young but investors start reducing it as retirement comes into sight. Our data suggest a double adjustment as people age: a rebalancing of the portfolio away from stocks as they approach retirement, and stock market exit after retirement. Existing calibrated life cycle models can account for the first behavior but not the second. We show that incorporating in these models a reasonable per period participation cost can generate limited participation among the young but not enough exit from the stock market among the elderly. Adding also a small probability of a large loss when investing in stocks, produces a joint pattern of participation and of the risky asset share that is similar to the one observed in the data. A structural estimation of the relevant parameters of the model reveals that the parameter combination that fits the data best is one with a relatively large risk aversion, small participation cost and a yearly large loss probability of around 1.3 percent.
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Giovanni BUSETTA (Universit… di Messina, Department of Economics, Business, Environmental Sciences, and Quantitative Methods); Fabio FIORILLO (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of beauty on employability, stressing the first stage of the hiring process. In particular, we studied the Italian labor market in order to ascertain whether there exists a preference for attractive applicants according to gender and racial characteristics. The sample analyzed consists of observations collected by sending 11008 curricula vitae (henceforth CVs) to firms looking for workers in response to advertised job postings.;Positive responses were obtained by 3278 CVs (almost 30% of the sample). We then compared response rates of different categories, obtaining the following results: those who receive the highest levels of positive responses are attractive subjects; most of the responses to plain subjects involve unqualified jobs; beauty appears to be essential for front clerical work; racial discrimination appears to be significant, but less so than discrimination based on physical features, especially for women.
    Keywords: beauty premium, experimental economics, racial discrimination
    JEL: C93 J71 J78
    Date: 2013–10
  22. By: M. Lippi Bruni; C. Ugolini
    Abstract: We study care arrangement decisions in Italy, where families are increasingly delegating the role of primary caregiver to external (paid) people also for the provision of home care. We consider a sample of households with a dependent elderly person cared for either at home or in a residential home, extracted from a survey representative of the population of Italy’s Emilia-Romagna region. We investigate the determinants of a household’s decision to opt for one of the following three alternatives: the institutionalisation of elderly family members, informal home care, or paid home care. We estimate two model specifications, based on a simultaneous and a sequential decision process respectively, the results of which are fairly consistent. Disability related variables, rather than family characteristics, emerge as the main determinants of institutionalisation. On the other hand, household characteristics and socio-economic variables are more influential when it comes to choosing between informal and formal home care provisions.
    JEL: C21 D13 I18
    Date: 2013–10
  23. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Education - Early Childhood Development Education - Education For All Education - Primary Education Tertiary Education Teaching and Learning
    Date: 2013–03
  24. By: Konrad, Kai A.
    Abstract: This paper explores the role of unilateral and idiosyncratic affection rents (love) from being married with a specific individual in a matching model with individuals with heterogenous matching frequencies. We show that individuals suffer in expectation from being matched with individuals with high matching frequency. High-frequency daters have high reservation utilities for entering into a marriage. This makes them turn down many offers and makes them appear as heart-breakers. -- Dieses Paper untersucht ein Matching-Modell, in dem Heiratsentscheidungen auf der Basis von gegenseitiger Zuneigung (emotionalen Renten) getroffen werden. Die Rolle von Einkommen und sozialem Status wird in der Analyse bewusst ausgeblendet. Es zeigt sich: Personen, die häufiger als andere Personen auf neue mögliche Partner treffen (sogenannte Speed Dater), neigen dazu, auch dann weiterzusuchen, wenn die Zuneigung zu einem gerade aktuellen Partner bereits sehr hoch ist. Speed Dater wirken deshalb oft als Herzensbrecher, obgleich ihr Verhalten nur aus ihrer Optimierungssituation entspringt, in der sie ihre Entscheidung treffen. Die Existenz solcher Speed Dater verschlechtert zudem die Situation für Personen, die eher selten auf mögliche neue Partner treffen.
    Keywords: marriage,affection rent,love,matching,non-hierarchical heterogeneity
    JEL: J12
    Date: 2013
  25. By: Alexander M. Gelber; Damon Jones; Daniel W. Sacks
    Abstract: We study frictions in adjusting earnings to changes in the Social Security Annual Earnings Test (AET) using a panel of Social Security Administration microdata on one percent of the U.S. population from 1961 to 2006. Individuals continue to "bunch" at the convex kink the AET creates even when they are no longer subject to the AET, consistent with the existence of earnings adjustment frictions in the U.S. We develop a novel framework for estimating an earnings elasticity and an adjustment cost using information on the amount of bunching at kinks before and after policy changes in earnings incentives around the kinks. We apply this method in settings in which individuals face changes in the AET benefit reduction rate, and we estimate in a baseline case that the earnings elasticity with respect to the implicit net-of-tax share is 0.23, and the fixed cost of adjustment is $152.08.
    JEL: H20 H31 J14 J26
    Date: 2013–10
  26. By: Cogneau, Denis; Mesple-Somps, Sandrine; Spielvogel, Gilles
    Abstract: Regression discontinuity designs applied to a set of household surveys from the 1980-90s allow to examine whether Cote d'Ivoire's aggregate wealth was translated at the borders of neighboring countries. At the border of Ghana and at the end of the 1980s, large discontinuities are detected for consumption, child stunting, and access to electricity and safe water. Border discontinuities in consumption can be explained by differences in cash crop policies (cocoa and coffee). When these policies converged in the 1990s, the only differences that persisted were those in rural facilities. In the North, cash crop (cotton) income again made a difference for consumption and nutrition (the case of Mali). On the one hand, large differences in welfare can hold at the borders dividing African countries despite their assumed porosity. On the other hand, border discontinuities seem to reflect the impact of reversible public policies rather than intangible institutional traits.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Regional Economic Development,Climate Change Economics,Emerging Markets,Population Policies
    Date: 2013–09–01
  27. By: Gilles Pison (INED)
    Abstract: Every other year, Population and Societies publishes a special issue called The population of the world, presenting an overall picture of the situation across the globe. There are slightly more than 7 billion humans on the planet in 2013. The world population has risen seven-fold over the last two hundred years and is expected to reach 10 or 11 billion by the end of the twenty-first century.
    Date: 2013
  28. By: Tepper, Alexander (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Borowiecki, Karol Jan (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: This paper develops a simple dynamic model to examine the breakout from a Malthusian economy to a modern growth regime. It identifies several factors that determine the fastest rate at which the population can grow without engendering declining living standards; this is termed maximum sustainable population growth. We then apply the framework to Britain and find a dramatic increase in sustainable population growth at the time of the Industrial Revolution, well before the beginning of modern levels of income growth. The main contributions to the British breakout were technological improvements and structural change away from agricultural production, while coal, capital, and trade played a minor role.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution; Malthusian Dynamics; Maximum Sustainable Population Growth; Development; Demographics
    JEL: N13 N33 O10 O41 O52
    Date: 2013–10–02

This nep-dem issue is ©2013 by Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.