nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2013‒07‒20
thirty-six papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Making up onefs mind to marry or have children: Results of a questionnaire survey in Japan By Yoshiro Tsutsui; Akiko Kamesaka; Oleksandr Movshuk; Sayuri Shiraishi
  2. Gender Differences in Preferences for Health-Related Absences from Work By Avdic, Daniel; Johansson, Per
  3. The Distribution of Income and Fiscal Incidence by Age and Gender: Some Evidence from New Zealand By Aziz, Omar; Gemmell, Norman; Laws, Athene
  4. Recessions and babie's health By Ainhoa Aparicio; Libertad González Luna
  5. Female Labour Supply and intergenerational preference formation: Evidence for Mexico By Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M.; Velez, Roberto
  6. Men Vote in Mars, Women Vote in Venus: A Survey Experiment in the Field By Galasso, Vincenzo; Nannicini, Tommaso
  7. The Distributional Impact of Population Ageing By Omar A Aziz; Christopher Ball; John Creedy; Jesse Eedrah
  8. Myopic Loss Aversion under Ambiguity and Gender Effects By Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe Kortajarene; Giovanni Ponti; Josefa Tomás
  9. Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions By Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Kluth, Sebastian
  10. Parental Investment and the Intergenerational Transmission of Economic Preferences and Attitudes By Zumbühl, Maria; Dohmen, Thomas; Pfann, Gerard A.
  11. Labor market returns to early childhood stimulation : a 20-year followup to an experimental intervention in Jamaica By Gertler, Paul; Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo; Zanolini, Arianna; Vermeerch, Christel; Walker, Susan; Chang-Lopez, Susan; Grantham-McGregor, Sally
  12. Getting Ready for Kindergarten: Children's Progress During Head Start. FACES 2009 Report. By Nikki Aikens; Ashley Kopack Klein; Louisa Tarullo; Jerry West
  13. Migrant health in Italy: the right and access to healthcare as an opportunity for integration and inclusion By Sabina Nuti; Sara Barsanti
  14. The Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index By Sabina Alkire, Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Amber Peterman, Agnes R. Quisumbing, Greg Seymour and Ana Vaz
  15. Displacement and Education of the Next Generation: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina By Christoph Eder
  16. Population Ageing and the Growth of Income and Consumption Tax Revenue By Christopher Ball; John Creedy
  17. Golden Years or Financial Fears? Decision Making After Retirement Seminars By Steven G. Allen; Robert L. Clark; Jennifer Maki; Melinda Sandler Morrill
  18. Family Welfare Cultures By Gordon B. Dahl; Andreas Ravndal Kostol; Magne Mogstad
  19. Earnings and Labour Market Volatility in Britain By Cappellari, Lorenzo; Jenkins, Stephen P.
  20. Friends or Family? Revisiting the Effects of High School Popularity on Adult Earnings By Jason Fletcher
  21. An Empirical Analysis of Welfare Dependence in the Czech Republic By Guzi, Martin
  22. Development in Education Sector: Are the Poor Catching Up? By Mohamad Fahmi; Ben Satriatna
  23. The Social Effects of Ethnic Diversity at the Local Level: A Natural Experiment with Exogenous Residential Allocation By Yann Algan; Camille Hémet; David Laitin
  24. The Black-White Education-Scaled Test-Score Gap in Grades K-7 By Timothy N. Bond; Kevin Lang
  25. Health inequity in Indonesia: is it declining? By Pipit Pitriyan; Adiatma Y.M Siregar
  26. Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality Probabilities By Felix Reichling; Kent Smetters
  27. Data Tables for FACES 2009 Report. Getting Ready for Kindergarten: Children's Progress During Head Start. By Ashley Kopack Klein; Nikki Aikens; Jerry West; Serge Lukashanets; Louisa Tarullo
  28. Monitoring Progress in Child Poverty Reduction: Methodological Insights and Illustration to the Case Study of Bangladesh By Jose Manuel Roche
  29. “Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey” By Manuela Alcañiz; Montserrat Guillén; Daniel Sánchez-Moscona; Miguel Santolino; Oscar Llatje; Lluís Ramon
  30. Multidimensional Poverty Reduction in India between 1999 and 2006: Where and How? By Sabina Alkire and Suman Seth
  31. Intergenerational Smoothing of New Zealand’s Future Fiscal Costs By Ross Guest
  32. Youth Unemployment in Old Europe: The Polar Cases of France and Germany By Cahuc, Pierre; Carcillo, Stéphane; Rinne, Ulf; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  33. Why droughts started to turn into famines in the Late Victorian periods? A complex system approach. By Vallino.Elena
  34. L'aide aux personnes âgées avec incapacités et la consommation de médicaments au Québec By Aurélie Côté-Sergent; Pierre-Carl Michaud
  35. The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability By Robert A Buckle; Amy A Cruickshank
  36. Where do the World's Multidimensionally Poor People Live? By Sabina Alkire, Jose Manuel Roche and Andy Sumner

  1. By: Yoshiro Tsutsui (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Akiko Kamesaka (Aoyama Gakuin University); Oleksandr Movshuk (University of Toyama); Sayuri Shiraishi (Yokohama City University)
    Abstract: This paper is based on a questionnaire survey that examined gender differences with respect to forthcoming marriage, and to expected child birth. The following major results were identified: ‡@ Life satisfaction and subjective well-being were higher among people who planned to get married, as compared with the control group of unmarried individuals, or individuals with no marriage plans. A similar pattern was observed among individuals who expected a child, though the increase was less pronounced compared with the effect of marriage. ‡A In the case of forthcoming marriage, the vast majority of men were full-time workers, and the share was not affected by marriage. For women, the share was lower (at 73%), but similarly to men, the share did not change much by marriage. ‡B In prospective marriage, it was common to have favorite views about partnerfs personality, as compared with the control group. However, no clear difference could be identified in the perception of partnerfs personality in the case of prospective birth. ‡C Both marriage and childbirth did not lead to increased stress, while the degree of depression was lower compared with respective control groups. ‡D In couples, there was a tendency to choose a partner with a similar body type. ‡E For woman, the younger they were, the more likely they married men with higher income. For men, the younger they were, and with higher education level and income, the more likely they were to marry women with a matched hobby.
    Keywords: marriage, child birth, well-being, questionnaire survey, Japan
    JEL: I31
    Date: 2013–07
  2. By: Avdic, Daniel (Uppsala University); Johansson, Per (IFAU)
    Abstract: Women are on average more absent from work for health reasons than men. At the same time, they live longer. This conflicting pattern suggests that part of the gender difference in health-related absenteeism arises from differences between the genders unrelated to actual health. An overlooked explanation could be that men and women's preferences for absenteeism differ, for example because of gender differences in risk preferences. These differences may originate from the utility-maximizing of households in which women's traditional dual roles influence household decisions to invest primarily in women's health. Using detailed administrative data on sick leave, hospital visits and objective health measures we first investigate the existence of gender-specific preferences for absenteeism and subsequently test for the household investment hypothesis. We find evidence for the existence of gender differences in preferences for absence from work, and that a non-trivial part of these preference differences can be attributed to household investments in women's health.
    Keywords: sickness absence, gender norms, health investments
    JEL: J22 D13
    Date: 2013–06
  3. By: Aziz, Omar; Gemmell, Norman; Laws, Athene
    Abstract: This paper examines the age and gender dimensions of income distribution and fiscal incidence in New Zealand using Household Expenditure Survey (HES) data for 2010 and a non-behavioural micro-simulation model. Since many fiscal policies are likely to have quite different incidences across age groups and genders, and with population ageing changing the age and gender composition of the voting population in many countries, age/gender dimensions of fiscal incidence become increasingly relevant. While this single ‘age distribution snapshot’ cannot fully capture lifecycle incidences, it avoids the complex and uncertain assumptions implicit in the latter and is an important component of lifetime redistribution calculations. We explore alternative methods of intra-family allocation of resources including ‘unequal share’ assumptions based on recent research into how families allocate their spending. Our evidence, which in general is not highly sensitive to sharing assumptions, suggests a strong ‘life cycle’ aspect to fiscal incidence whereby net tax liabilities are low, and generally negative, at younger and older ages but positive during much of the ‘working age’ period. Women, on average, are found to have a systematically and persistently lower net fiscal liability than men, most pronounced at older ages when greater female longevity exercises a strong influence. Nevertheless, considerable heterogeneity of fiscal incidence for both men and women is observed with the distributions of various fiscal incidence measures showing substantial overlap.
    Keywords: Income distribution, Fiscal incidence, Gender, Age,
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Ainhoa Aparicio; Libertad González Luna
    Abstract: We study the effect of the business cycle on the health of newborn babies using 30 years of birth certificate data for Spain. Exploiting regional variation over time, we find that babies are born healthier when the local unemployment rate is high. Although fertility is lower during recessions, the effect on health is not the result of selection (healthier mothers being more likely to conceive when unemployment is high). We match multiple births to the same parents and find that the main result survives the inclusion of parents fixed-effects. We then explore a range of maternal behaviors as potential channels. Fertility-age women do not appear to engage in significantly healthier behaviors during recessions (in terms of exercise, nutrition, smoking and drinking). However, they are more likely to be out of work. Maternal employment during pregnancy is in turn negatively correlated with babies' health. We conclude that maternal employment is a plausible mediating channel.
    Keywords: recessions, business cycles, infant health, fertility, birth weight, infant mortality, Spain.
    JEL: I12 J13 O49
    Date: 2013–06
  5. By: Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M.; Velez, Roberto
    Abstract: Using a national representative sample for Mexico, we analyse the effect of a husband having a working mother on the probability that he has a working wife. Our results show that labour force participation by a husband’s mother increases the probability of the labour force participation of his wife by 15 percentage points. The effect is mainly driven by males with less than a high school education. One possible confounding factor is the effect of labour force participation of the wife’s mother on the wife’s labour participation decision. However, in a different sample, we do not find any effect of work force participation of wives’ mothers on wives’ decisions to join the labour force. Finally, we test the effect of the work force participation of a husband’s mother on the husband’s preferences regarding child-rearing practices. We find that having a working mother strongly reduces the probability that daughters will be tasked to care for siblings and fosters preferences for a more egalitarian allocation of educational resources among children. Hence, promoting female labour force participation can have important dynamic implications, especially for developing countries.
    Keywords: Female Labour Supply; Family; Preferences; Social Norms; Role Models
    JEL: D10 J12 J16 J22 O54
    Date: 2013–07
  6. By: Galasso, Vincenzo (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Nannicini, Tommaso (Bocconi University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the differential response of male and female voters to competitive persuasion in political campaigns. During the 2011 municipal elections in Milan, a sample of eligible voters was randomly divided into three groups. Two were exposed to the same incumbent's campaign but to different opponent's campaigns, with either a positive or a negative tone. The third – control – group received no electoral information. The campaigns were administered online and consisted of a bundle of advertising tools (videos, texts, slogans). Stark gender differences emerge. Negative advertising increases men's turnout, but has no effect on women. Females, however, vote more for the opponent and less for the incumbent when they are exposed to the opponent's positive campaign. Exactly the opposite occurs for males. Additional tests show that our results are not driven by gender identification with the candidate, ideology, or other voter's observable attributes. Effective strategies of persuasive communication should thus take gender into account. Our results may also help to reconcile the conflicting evidence on the effect of negative vs. positive advertising, as the average impact may wash out when aggregated across gender.
    Keywords: gender differences, political campaigns, competitive persuasion
    JEL: D72 J16 M37
    Date: 2013–07
  7. By: Omar A Aziz; Christopher Ball; John Creedy; Jesse Eedrah (The Treasury)
    Abstract: This paper examines the potential distributional impacts of demographic change, particularly population ageing, and changes to labour force participation that are projected to arise over the next 50 years. The approach involves calibration weighting of the Treasury’s microsimulation model, Taxwell, based on the New Zealand Household Economic Survey. The weights are adjusted for each projection year to ensure that a range of population aggregates (by age and gender) match the projected values provided by Statistics New Zealand. Measures of income inequality and poverty, along with the incidence of income tax, Goods and Services Tax and a number of components of government spending (namely health and education) across age groups, are obtained. The results suggest that population ageing and expected changes in labour force participation, in isolation, do not have a significant impact on population-level measures of income inequality.
    Keywords: Inequality; population ageing; survey calibration; poverty; fiscal incidence
    JEL: H24 I14 I24 J1 H24
    Date: 2013–07
  8. By: Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe Kortajarene (Universidad de Alicante); Giovanni Ponti (Universidad de Alicante); Josefa Tomás (Universidad de Alicante)
    Abstract: Experimental evidence suggests that the frequency with which individuals get feedback information on their investments has an effect on risk-taking behavior. In particular, when they are given information sufficiently often, they take fewer risks compared with a situation in which they are informed less frequently. In this paper we find that this result still holds when subjects do not know the probabilities of the lotteries they are betting upon. We also detect significant gender effects, in that the frequency with which information is disclosed mostly affects men’s betting behavior, rather than women’s, and that men are much more risk-seeking after experiencing a loss.
    Keywords: Myopic loss aversion, evaluation periods, ambiguity, gender effects
    JEL: C91 D81 D14
    Date: 2013–07
  9. By: Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Kluth, Sebastian (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))
    Abstract: One important parameter in the decision process when buying a private annuity is individuals' subjective life expectancy, because it directly influences the expected rate of return. We examine the market for private annuities in Germany and evaluate potential selection effects based on subjective life expectancy. First individuals are pessimistic about their life span compared to the official life tables. Second we find a significant selection effect based on subjective life expectancy for women who invest in private annuity contracts - so-called Riester pensions. For men there seems to be no difference in subjective life expectancy by Riester ownership. Comparing the size of this selection effect with the underlying loading in life expectancy charged by the insurance industry shows that the latter appears to be in line for women but very high for men. Our findings have strong policy implications. On the one hand misperceptions about longevity risk might prevent individuals from providing sufficiently for retirement. On the other hand mandated unisex tariffs might especially discourage men from investing in Riester pensions, for them premiums in life expectancy are particularly high compared to subjective expectations.
    JEL: D12 D91 G11
    Date: 2013–05–23
  10. By: Zumbühl, Maria (ROA, Maastricht University); Dohmen, Thomas (University of Bonn); Pfann, Gerard A. (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: We study empirically whether there is scope for parents to shape the economic preferences and attitudes of their children through purposeful investments. We exploit information on the risk and trust attitudes of parents and their children, as well as rich information about parental efforts in the upbringing of their children from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study. Our results show that parents who invest more in the upbringing of their children are more similar to them with respect to risk and trust attitudes and thus transmit their own attitudes more strongly. The results are robust to including variables on the relationship between children and parents, family size, and the parents' socioeconomic background.
    Keywords: risk preferences, trust, intergenerational transmission, cultural transmission, social mobility, GSOEP
    JEL: D1 D8 J13 J62 Z13
    Date: 2013–06
  11. By: Gertler, Paul; Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo; Zanolini, Arianna; Vermeerch, Christel; Walker, Susan; Chang-Lopez, Susan; Grantham-McGregor, Sally
    Abstract: This paper finds large effects on the earnings of participants from a randomized intervention that gave psychosocial stimulation to stunted Jamaican toddlers living in poverty. The intervention consisted of one-hour weekly visits from community Jamaican health workers over a 2-year period that taught parenting skills and encouraged mothers to interact and play with their children in ways that would develop their children's cognitive and personality skills. The authors re-interviewed the study participants 20 years after the intervention. Stimulation increased the average earnings of participants by 42 percent. Treatment group earnings caught up to the earnings of a matched non-stunted comparison group. These findings show that psychosocial stimulation early in childhood in disadvantaged settings can have substantial effects on labor market outcomes and reduce later life inequality.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Disease Control&Prevention,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Primary Education,Labor Policies
    Date: 2013–07–01
  12. By: Nikki Aikens; Ashley Kopack Klein; Louisa Tarullo; Jerry West
    Abstract: This report describes the cognitive, social-emotional, and physical development of children who take part in the Head Start program. Focusing on children who first entered Head Start in fall 2009 and completed one or two years of the program before starting kindergarten, the authors examined progress in children’s outcomes between Head Start entry and exit. Data for the report come from the Head Start Family and Child Experiences Survey (FACES), a periodic longitudinal study of Head Start funded by the Office of Planning, Research & Evaluation in the Administration for Children & Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
    Keywords: FACES 2009, Head Start, Kindergarten, Early Childhood
    JEL: I
    Date: 2013–06–30
  13. By: Sabina Nuti (Istituto di Management - Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa); Sara Barsanti (Istituto di Management - Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa)
    Abstract: This paper analyses migrant access to health care through the Italian legal framework and the use of health care services. In both analyses, an underlying gap and critical issues are demonstrated for migrants regarding their knowledge of the health care system as well as the accessibility and use of health services. In particular, immigrants have a lower hospitalisation rate than the native population. However, hospitalisation for some events (i.e., injuries, infectious disease) is higher for migrants than for natives. The results suggest that the health care system is unable to ensure an equitable use of the same services between populations with identical needs (horizontal equity) or accessibility for specific conditions prevalent in the migrant population (vertical equity).Moreover, the main entry point for migrants to the health care system(the maternal pathway and women’s health services)could be the first step for a more comprehensive process of integration and communication. In Italy, the immigrant population is growing and the differences in access to care are demonstrated. Consequently, it is necessary to rethink a possible model of integration and welfare for the migrant population, where access to the healthcare system is not only a desired result but also an opportunity for integration and inclusion.
    Keywords: healthcare performance; performance evaluation system; migrant; equity; integration
    JEL: I18
    Date: 2013–04–01
  14. By: Sabina Alkire, Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Amber Peterman, Agnes R. Quisumbing, Greg Seymour and Ana Vaz
    Abstract: The Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) is a new survey-based index designed to measure the empowerment, agency, and inclusion of women in the agricultural sector. The WEAI was initially developed as a tool to reflect women's empowerment that may result from the United States government's Feed the Future Initiative, which commissioned the development of the WEAI. The WEAI can also be used more generally to assess the state of empowerment and gender parity in agriculture, to identify key areas in which empowerment needs to be strengthened, and to track progress over time. The WEAI is an aggregate index, reported at the country or regional level, based on individual-level data collected by interviewing men and women within the same households. The WEAI comprises two subindexes. The first assesses the degree to which women are empowered in five domains of empowerment (5DE) in agriculture. It reflects the percentage of women who are empowered and, among those who are not, the percentage of domains in which women enjoy adequate achievements. These domains are (1) decisions about agricultural production, (2) access to and decision-making power about productive resources, (3) control of use of income, (4) leadership in the community, and (5) time allocation. The second subindex (the Gender Parity Index [GPI]) measures gender parity. The GPI reflects the percentage of women who are empowered or whose achievements are at least as high as the men in their households. For those households that have not achieved gender parity, the GPI shows the empowerment gap that needs to be closed for women to reach the same level of empowerment as men. This technical paper documents the development of the WEAI and presents pilot data from Bangladesh, Guatemala, and Uganda, so that researchers and practitioners seeking to use the index in their own work would understand how the survey questionnaires were developed and piloted, how the qualitative case studies were undertaken, how the index was constructed, how various indicators were validated, and how it can be used in other settings.
    Date: 2013–02
  15. By: Christoph Eder (Simon Fraser University)
    Abstract: In this paper, I study how displacement of parents during a violent conflict affects investment in their children’s' education years later. Using ethnic division during the Bosnian War as a natural experiment, I can identify exogenously displaced households and compare them to households who did not have to move because of the war. I find that displaced households spend significantly less on the education of their children in primary and secondary school (20 to 35 %), while their children are equally likely to be enrolled. The result also holds for expenditure positions like textbooks, school materials and annual tuition in secondary school. A decomposition of the causal effect shows that differences in income and the stock of durable goods can at most explain one third of the finding. Some evidence points towards increased uncertainty about the future of displaced parents. The finding implies that the disadvantage of displacement might be carried on to the next generation through the quality of education.
    Keywords: Displacement, Conflict, Education
    JEL: I25 J15 O15
    Date: 2013–07
  16. By: Christopher Ball; John Creedy (The Treasury)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the implications of population ageing and changes in labour force participation rates for projections of revenue obtained from personal income taxation and a consumption tax (in the form of a broad-based goods and services tax). A projection model is presented, involving changing age-income profiles over time for males and females. The model is estimated and applied to New Zealand over the period 2011-2062.
    Date: 2013–07
  17. By: Steven G. Allen; Robert L. Clark; Jennifer Maki; Melinda Sandler Morrill
    Abstract: Many organizations provide retirement planning seminars to their employees as a benefit to help them make better informed retirement decisions.  This study examines the participants in 85 seminars conducted by five companies in 2008 and 2009 to determine how much learning takes place and whether employees adjust retirement plans.  Using surveys conducted before and after the seminars, we find that financial literacy and knowledge of retirement program parameters are significantly higher after the seminar.  Employees with the largest increases in knowledge were most likely to change their planned retirement age and planned age of claiming Social Security benefits.
    JEL: J14 J26 J32
    Date: 2013–07
  18. By: Gordon B. Dahl; Andreas Ravndal Kostol; Magne Mogstad
    Abstract: Strong intergenerational correlations in various types of welfare use have fueled a long standing debate over whether welfare dependency in one generation causes welfare dependency in the next generation. Some claim a culture has developed in which welfare use reinforces itself through the family, because parents on welfare provide information about the program to their children, reduce the stigma of participation, or invest differentially in child development. Others argue the determinants of poverty or poor health are correlated across generations, so that children's welfare participation is associated with, but not caused by, parental welfare use. However, there is little empirical evidence to sort out these claims. In this paper, we investigate the existence and importance of family welfare cultures in the context of Norway's disability insurance (DI) system. To overcome the challenge of correlated unobservables across generations, we take advantage of random assignment of judges to DI applicants whose cases are initially denied. Some appeal judges are systematically more lenient, which leads to random variation in the probability a parent will be allowed DI. Using this exogenous variation, we find strong evidence that welfare use in one generation causes welfare use in the next generation: when a parent is allowed DI, their adult child's participation over the next five years increases by 6 percentage points. This effect grows over time, rising to 12 percentage points after ten years. Using our estimates, we simulate the total reduction in DI participation from a policy which makes the screening process more stringent; the intergenerational link amplifies the direct effect on parents at the margin of program entry, leading to long-run participation rates and program costs which are substantially lower than would otherwise be expected. The detailed nature of our data allows us to explore the mechanisms behind the causal intergenerational relationship; we find suggestive evidence against stigma and parental investments and in favor of children learning from a parent's experience with the DI program.
    JEL: H53 I38 J62
    Date: 2013–07
  19. By: Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Jenkins, Stephen P. (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: We provide new evidence about earnings and labour market volatility in Britain over the period 1992-2008, and for women as well as men. (Most research about volatility refers to earnings volatility for US men.) We show that earnings volatility declined slightly for both men and women over the period but the changes are not statistically significant. When we look at labour market volatility, i.e. including in the calculations individuals with zero earnings as well as employees with positive earnings, there is a marked and statistically significant decline for both women and men, with the fall greater for men. Using variance decompositions, we show that the fall in labour market volatility is largely accounted for by changes in employment attachment rates. Labour market volatility trends in Britain, and what contributes to them, differ from their US counterparts in several respects.
    Keywords: labour market volatility, earnings volatility, earnings instability, BHPS
    JEL: J31
    Date: 2013–07
  20. By: Jason Fletcher
    Abstract: Recent evidence has suggested that popularity during high school is linked with wages during mid-life using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. The results were shown to be robust to a large set of individual-level heterogeneity included completed schooling, cognitive ability, and personality measures. This paper revisits this question by first replicating the results using an alternative dataset that is very similar in structure. Like the previous results, the Add Health baseline effects suggest that an additional high school friendship nomination is linked to a 2% increase in earnings around age 30. However, leveraging the unique sibling structure of the Add Health shows that sibling comparisons eliminate any associations between popularity and earnings. The findings suggest that families, rather than friends, may be the cause of the association.
    JEL: J01 J1 J3
    Date: 2013–07
  21. By: Guzi, Martin (IZA)
    Abstract: Paper demonstrates the existence of a welfare trap in the Czech Republic, created by the tax and social security systems. Combining individual data from the Czech Labor Force Survey and the Czech Household Income Survey, the analysis exploits the difference between the available social benefits and the net household income when a person is employed. This information allows us to calculate the net replacement rate based on the parameters of the taxation system and rules for means-tested social benefits at the household level. Estimates imply the existence of a welfare trap, which means that individuals who receive relatively higher social benefits are also more likely to remain unemployed. It is shown that the most affected groups are those with low education and long unemployment spells. Furthermore, the paper documents the disadvantaged position of women in the Czech labor market. The estimates imply that women outflows to employment are particularly influenced by the high social benefits, and the existence of a welfare trap persists even when the job-search intensity is controlled. This finding contributes to the discussion on the persistent and large unemployment gender gap in the Czech Republic. The results of the analysis support policy improvements towards low-income households. A better harmonization of tax and social security systems is necessary in order to ensure that the incentives to leave unemployment are not hampered by high social benefits.
    Keywords: labour supply, welfare trap, net replacement rate
    JEL: J22 J31 I38
    Date: 2013–06
  22. By: Mohamad Fahmi (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Ben Satriatna (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)
    Abstract: We use The National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) data from 1992 to 2012, to describe the condition of education development in Indonesia before and after the Reform Era. Historical data on education of Indonesia shows that this country has made a remarkable achievement in education development, which is indicated by a significant improvement on several education indicators. However, 1997-1998 Asian crisis is believed had slowed down the development of education sector in Indonesia. Three indicators areused in this study to measure the performance of education development, which are yearly schooling, net enrollment rate, and literacy rate. We found the gap of years of school between gender, region and income group is getting narrowed in the reform era. The net enrollment rate of all level of education also improved between 1992 and 2012. The gap between gender, region and income group also tends to be narrowed. However, we find that in several conditions the gap tends to be widened after the crisis. First case is between urban and rural people at elementary school. Second case is between income groups at elementary school. Third is between male and female at senior high school. Finally, the case is between income groups at tertiary education level. Literacy rate indicator also shows an improvement. The gap between different groups of people is also getting narrowed, except the gap between the rich and the poor. It tends to be widened after the crisis. The last indicator which is dropout rate also shows an improvement without interrupted by crisis. However, this is only happened at elementary school level. For the other level, the condition happened in different way. The gap between different groups of people is also narrowed after the reform era.
    Keywords: Education, Poverty, Indonesia
    JEL: I24 I28
    Date: 2013–07
  23. By: Yann Algan (Department of Economics, Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Camille Hémet (Department of Economics, Sciences Po - Sciences Po, AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)); David Laitin (Department of Political Science, Stanford University - Stanford University)
    Abstract: This paper demonstrates the effects of ethnic diversity on social relationships and the quality of public spaces at a very finite neighborhood level. We use detailed block level data on diversity and housing quality from a representative survey on housing in France. We show how and to what extent diversity within a neighborhood can directly affect household well-being and the quality of the common spaces, whereas the previous literature looks at more aggregate outcomes through voting channels. Our identification strategy relies on the exogeneity of public housing allocations with respect to ethnic characteristics in France, to address the bias due to endogenous residential sorting. Diversity is shown to have a negative effect on the quality of local public goods, either due to vandalism, not deterred by other-regarding preferences and social policing, or due to collective action failure to ensure effective property management. However, we find that diversity has no robust effect on public safety at a local level and, if anything, is more related to social anomie.
    Keywords: diversity; neighborhood effects; living conditions; public housing
    Date: 2013–07
  24. By: Timothy N. Bond; Kevin Lang
    Abstract: We address the ordinality of test scores by rescaling them by the average eventual educational attainment of students with a given test score in a given grade. We show that measurement error in test scores causes this approach to underestimate the black-white test score gap and use an instrumental variables procedure to adjust the gap. While the unadjusted gap grows rapidly in the early school years, particularly in reading, after correction for measurement error, the education-scaled gap is large, exceeds the actual black-white education gap and is roughly constant. Strikingly, the gap in all grades is largely explained by a small number of measures of socioeconomic background. We discuss the interpretation of scales tied to adult outcomes.
    JEL: C18 I24 J15
    Date: 2013–07
  25. By: Pipit Pitriyan (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Adiatma Y.M Siregar (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)
    Abstract: Indonesia significant progress in health outcomes is followed by significant issues, among them are the issues of inequities and inequalities. These two issues are known to be an important part in achieving plausible health outcome. This study attempts to observe disparity reduction and its acceleration rate in selected health indicators (i.e. access to improved water source and sanitation facility, first-child birth attended by health care worker) over a period of the last 15 years. We analyze the health indicators by clusters of expenditure quintile and regions (urban - rural, Java - non Java, KTI - non KTI). Our analyses have shown some key observations. First, the national figures show improvement for all indicators except for the percentage of population suffering from diarrhea (seemed worsening). However, the rate of improvement remained stagnant and there was no acceleration. Second, the gap reduction between the rich and the poor in terms of health access and status seemed to slow down or even widened during the post reformation era. Third, the health indicators movement trend by region did not seem to have a pattern and the gap between richer and poorer areas exist in some indicators and nonexistent in others (the widest gap is found between urban and rural areas.). Where it existed, however, the condition persisted along the period of observation.
    Keywords: inequality, inequity, health, Indonesia
    JEL: I14 I15
    Date: 2013–07
  26. By: Felix Reichling; Kent Smetters
    Abstract: The conventional wisdom dating back to Yaari (1965) is that households without a bequest motive should fully annuitize their investments. Numerous market frictions do not break this sharp result. We modify the Yaari framework by allowing a household's mortality risk itself to be stochastic. Annuities still help to hedge longevity risk, but they are now subject to valuation risk. Valuation risk is a powerful gateway mechanism for numerous frictions to reduce annuity demand, even without ad hoc “liquidity constraints.” We find that most households should not annuitize any wealth. The optimal level of aggregate net annuity holdings is likely even negative.
    JEL: D01 D14 H31
    Date: 2013–07
  27. By: Ashley Kopack Klein; Nikki Aikens; Jerry West; Serge Lukashanets; Louisa Tarullo
    Keywords: Head Start, FACES 2009, Kindergarten, Data Tables
    JEL: I
    Date: 2013–06–30
  28. By: Jose Manuel Roche
    Abstract: Important steps have been taken at international summits to set up goals and targets to improve the wellbeing of children worldwide. Now the world also has more and better data to monitor progress. This paper presents a new approach to monitoring progress in child poverty reduction based on the Alkire and Foster adjusted headcount ratio and an array of complementary techniques. A theoretical discussion is accompanied by an assessment of child poverty reduction in Bangladesh based on four rounds of the Demographic Household Survey (1997-2007). Emphasis is given to dimensional monotonicity and decomposability as desirable properties of multidimensional poverty measures. Complementary techniques for analysing changes over time are also illustrated, including the Shapley decomposition of changes in overall poverty, as well as a range of robustness tests and statistical significance tests. The results from Bangladesh illustrate the value added of these new tools and the information they provide for policy. The analysis reveals two paths to multidimensional poverty reduction - either decreasing the incidence of poverty or its intensity - and exposes an uneven distribution of national gains across geographical divisions. The methodology allows an integrated analysis of overall changes yet simultaneously examines progress in each region and in each dimension, retaining the positive features of dashboard approaches. The empirical evidence highlights the need to move beyond the headcount ratio towards new measures of child poverty that reflect the intensity of poverty and multiple deprivations that affect poor children at the same time.
    Date: 2013–01
  29. By: Manuela Alcañiz (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona); Montserrat Guillén (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona); Daniel Sánchez-Moscona (Catalan Traffic Authority); Miguel Santolino (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona); Oscar Llatje (Catalan Traffic Authority); Lluís Ramon (Catalan Traffic Authority)
    Abstract: Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29%, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90% on Saturdays, 4.29% on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45%) than for women (0.64%) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62%, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84%, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.
    Keywords: Breath alcohol concentration, blood alcohol content, drunk driving, sampling analysis, weights, substance abuse. JEL classification:
    Date: 2013–07
  30. By: Sabina Alkire and Suman Seth
    Abstract: India has witnessed high economic growth since the 1980s, and a reduction in the share of income poor, though the measured extent of this reduction varies, has been confirmed by different methods. Poverty, however, has multiple dimensions, hence this paper explores the improvement in other social deprivations. An analysis of poverty from a multidimensional perspective shows the prevalence of multiple overlapping deprivations among the poor. This paper analyses the change in multidimensional poverty in India between 1999 and 2006 using National Family and Health Surveys. We find a strong reduction in national poverty driven relatively more by some of the standard of living indicators, such as electricity, housing condition, access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation facilities, than other social indicators. The reduction, however, has not been uniform across different population subgroups and the pattern of reduction across states has been less pro-poor that of income poverty. In addition, the poorer subgroups have shown slower progress, widening the inter-group disparity in multidimensional poverty. In order to examine trends among the poorest of the poor, we define two additional subgroups of the poor and find that multidimensional poverty reduction has been accompanied by even stronger reductions in the share of the poorest of the poor by both definitions. The in-depth analysis pursued in this paper can also be conducted for other developing countries.
    Date: 2013–03
  31. By: Ross Guest (Griffith University)
    Abstract: This paper applies an overlapping generations model in order to evaluate the implications of intergenerational smoothing of New Zealand’s future fiscal costs. The analysis complements the New Zealand fiscal projections of Bell et al. (2010) and the New Zealand tax smoothing analysis in Davis and Fabling (2002). It allows for feedback effects of the tax rate on labour supply through both intratemporal and intertemporal effects which in turn feed back to fiscal projections via taxation revenue. Under Treasury’s sustainable debt projections, which implies convergence to a stable 20% net debt to GDP ratio, generations born prior to 1990 are worse off and those born after 2000 are better off (measured by the impact on their remaining lifetime income). However, the magnitudes of the impact on the remaining lifetime income of all generations are small – no greater that 0.7% under the Medium demographic scenario. Those born around 1960 fare the worst, while those born after 2020 fare the best. The losses to current generations are weighed up against the gains to future generations through the social welfare function. The results show that net social gains are possible provided the gains to future generations are given sufficient weight by a low rate of social time preference and a high rate of aversion to variability in aggregate consumption over time. The parameter values required to generate net social gains are close to the bounds of plausible values. The magnitudes of the net social gains/losses range from minus $90 to plus $94 per capita per year.
    JEL: H31 H32 J18 E21
    Date: 2013–07
  32. By: Cahuc, Pierre (Ecole Polytechnique, Paris); Carcillo, Stéphane (OECD); Rinne, Ulf (IZA); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA and University of Bonn)
    Abstract: France and Germany are two polar cases in the European debate about rising youth unemployment. Similar to what can be observed in Southern European countries, a "lost generation" may arise in France. In stark contrast, youth unemployment has been on continuous decline in Germany for many years, hardly affected by the Great Recession. This paper analyzes the diametrically opposed developments in the two countries to derive policy lessons. As the fundamental differences in youth unemployment are primarily resulting from structural differences in labor policy and in the (vocational) education system, any short-term oriented policies can only have temporary effects. Ultimately, the youth unemployment disease in France and in other European countries has to be cured with structural reforms.
    Keywords: labor policy, labor market institutions, Great Recession, youth unemployment, minimum wages, demographic trends, vocational education and training, employment protection
    JEL: J24 J38 J68
    Date: 2013–07
  33. By: Vallino.Elena (University of Turin)
    Abstract: In this article complex system theories are used as interpretation framework for analyzing the strong famines which occurred in the Late Victorian age in many tropical countries. One leading explanation in the literature regarding these famines is that the so-called New Imperialism at the end of the nineteenth century together with the integration of the rural areas of tropical countries into the interconnected world economy led to an increase of the vulnerability of the population in these areas to climatic and economic shocks. This vulnerability converted rapidly the droughts between 1876 and 1902 into massive famines, diseases and starvations. The following questions are posed. Which contribution can complexity theory give to the understanding of these phenomena? If it is easy to conceive the process that leads to famines as complex, I wonder if a complexity approach is appropriate for representing and explaining the causal relations within the system that led to the emergence of famines. The complex system approach is extremely useful for analysing in detail the high degree of unpredictability of the system created by the interaction of phenomena which are very different among them, in nature, time and scale. Moreover, it is effective in analyzing the diversities in scale among causes and effects. However, I find the approach less useful when it is necessary to identify power relations and decision nodes among the elements of the system
    Date: 2013–05
  34. By: Aurélie Côté-Sergent; Pierre-Carl Michaud
    Abstract: Nous utilisons des données d’enquête sur les personnes avec incapacités, jumelées avec les données de la Régie de l’assurance maladie du Québec (RAMQ) sur les dépenses en médicaments, afin de documenter le rôle joué par l’aide formelle et informelle dans la prescription et la consommation de médicaments. Nous nous intéressons d’une part à l’association entre l’aide et la dépense pharmaceutique annuelle totale, et d’autre part à celle entre l’aide et le nombre de prescriptions, nouvelles et renouvelées. L’hypothèse testée est que l’aide au patient peut faciliter l’adhérence au traitement, ce qui peut augmenter la consommation de médicaments. De plus, les médecins peuvent se sentir plus à l’aise de prescrire des médicaments s’ils déterminent que le patient peut être aidé. Nous trouvons une relation positive forte et relativement robuste entre l’aide, en particulier celle provenant des CLSC et de la famille, et la prescription et la consommation de médicaments. Cette relation est intrigante et soulève un nombre de questions intéressantes pour la recherche future.
    Keywords: Coûts médicaments, soins à domicile, aînés, invalidité
    JEL: J14 I10
    Date: 2013
  35. By: Robert A Buckle; Amy A Cruickshank (The Treasury)
    Abstract: New Zealand, like many other countries, is experiencing a changing demographic profile from one dominated by young people during the 20th century to one where the population is more evenly distributed across age groups. This has implications for the economy and society, including the government's fiscal position in the future and for the sustainability of its spending programmes. This paper discusses the link between the government budget constraint and fiscal sustainability, how fiscal sustainability can be measured and why it’s important. We also examine the Treasury’s current approach to modelling the extent of fiscal adjustment required and options available to achieve this adjustment. The paper proposes criteria to evaluate potential policy changes to address these long-term fiscal challenges and suggests areas where further work could be worthwhile.
    Keywords: Long-run fiscal sustainability; fiscal consolidation; public debt; public social expenditure; taxation
    JEL: E61 E62 H68
    Date: 2013–07
  36. By: Sabina Alkire, Jose Manuel Roche and Andy Sumner
    Abstract: This paper asks where do the world's multidimensionally poor people live? The paper considers how the global distribution of multidimensional poverty differs from the global distribution of income poverty and assesses the sensitivity of findings to widely used (although somewhat arbitrary) country classifications. Surprisingly perhaps, only a quarter of multidimensionally poor people and just one-third of severely multidimensionally poor people live in the world's poorest countries - meaning Low Income Countries (LICs) or Least Developed Countries (LDCs). The sensitivity of findings about country thresholds for low and middle-income countries is discussed. The paper argues that there is a split of distribution poverty between both stable Middle Income Countries (MICs) and low-income fragile states, and that there is a 'multidimensional bottom billion' living in stable MICs. The analysis is based on 83 countries, and uses the 2011 Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) poverty estimates of the UNDP Human Development Report.
    Date: 2013–03

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