|
on Demographic Economics |
|
Issue of 2013‒06‒09
forty-one papers chosen by Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo University of Montreal and World Bank Group |
| By: | Zhang, Y. Jane |
| Abstract: | Radical communist reforms propelled traditionally secluded Han Chinese women into the labor force but exempted ethnic minorities. Using an economic experiment, this study compares the gender gap in competitive inclination across three ethnic groups in one county. The Han Chinese have no statistically significant gender gap while the patrilineal Yi women are significantly less competitively inclined than Yi men and than Han Chinese women. The matrilineal Mosuo women are as competitively inclined as the Han Chinese women. The findings affirm that culture matters for competitive inclination and suggests the hypothesis that institutional changes can narrow the gender gap in competitive inclination. |
| Keywords: | competition, culture, gender, communism |
| JEL: | C91 C93 J15 J16 O15 P3 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47356&r=dem |
| By: | Goerlich Gisbert Francisco J. (Ivie; Universidad de Valencia) |
| Abstract: | This working paper examines differences in life expectancy at birth across time, space and sexes, focusing on two origins: 1) changes in age-specific mortality rates; and 2) changes in age-specific mortality rates by cause of death. We use decomposition methods in life expectancy differentials and show that the biggest contribution comes from reductions in mortality at advanced ages. In relation to the cause of death decomposition, we observe that the primary cause of differences is cardiovascular diseases, with a decreasing tendency, while on the contrary we observe a growing importance of cancer in all three dimensions analyzed. For the rest of the causes, results are more heterogeneous. |
| Keywords: | Life expectancy, mortality causes, life tables, International Classification of Diseases (ICD). |
| JEL: | J11 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbb:wpaper:2012121&r=dem |
| By: | Ken-ichi Hashimoto (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Ken Tabata (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a simple, overlapping generations version of an R&D-based growth model à la Diamond (1965) and Jones (1995), and examines how an increase in old-age survival probability impacts purposeful R&D investment and long-run growth by affecting fertility and education decisions. We demonstrate that under certain conditions, old-age survival probability, when relatively low (high), positively (negatively) affect economic growth. This study also compares the growth implications of child education subsidies and child rearing subsidies and demonstrates that although child education subsidies always foster economic growth, child rearing subsidies may negatively impact economic growth in particular situations. Finally, we briefly consider the effects of a child education subsidy on welfare levels. |
| Keywords: | R&D, Fertility, Human Capital, Child Education Subsidy, Child Rearing Subsidy |
| JEL: | J13 J24 O10 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:104&r=dem |
| By: | Luca Spataro; Luciano Fanti |
| Abstract: | In a standard OLG model of a small open economy with logarithmic utility and endogenous fertility we show that the reversion of the relationship between fertility and wages (i.e. a transition from the Malthusian to the Modern fertility behaviour) may be possible in presence of intergenerational public transfers(i.e. public national debt or PAYG pensions). In fact, as known, the latter have been implemented mostly in the advanced Western Countries, where the fertility behavior reversion has mainly occurred. We show that such a reversion is more likely to occur in economies that are entailed with low interest rate, low costs for raising children and low degree of patience, and high preference for children. |
| Keywords: | overlapping generations, endogenous fertility, savings,small open economy, public national debt, PAYG pension scheme,demographic transition. |
| JEL: | D91 E62 H63 J13 |
| Date: | 2013–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2013/163&r=dem |
| By: | Attar, M. Aykut |
| Abstract: | This paper projects the effects of exogenous fertility changes in Turkey on the age structure of population and the standards of living using a semi-reduced-form model of economic growth and demographic change. Both the technological progress and the fertility rate are endogenous. The calibrated version of the model delivers three important results: First, technological progress will be the major source of economic growth in Turkey in the upcoming decades. Second, even with a non-declining saving rate, the population aging will result in a growth slowdown since technological progress is not fast enough in Turkey. Third, even under an increasing rate of technological progress, a permanent upward shift in fertility levels would imply, relative to the benchmark, a significantly lower level of output per capita, a remarkably higher level of dependent population, and a persistently lower share of the working-age population for many decades. These results suggest that the priority of policy-makers in Turkey should be technological progress. The pro-natalist rhetoric, even if it proves to be strong enough to persuade the people of Turkey to have more children in the near future, does not have any economic significance. |
| Keywords: | fertility, population aging, population policy, technological progress. |
| JEL: | C63 E17 O11 O33 |
| Date: | 2013–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47275&r=dem |
| By: | Neeraj Kaushal |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of a recent expansion in India’s National Old Age Pension Scheme on elderly well-being. Estimates suggest that public pension has a modestly negative effect on the employment of elderly/near elderly men with a primary or lower education but no effect of the employment of similar women. Pension raised family expenditures, lowering poverty, and the effect was smaller on families headed by illiterate persons suggesting lower pension coverage of this most disadvantaged group. Further, households spent most of the pension income on medical care and education. We find some weak evidence that pension raised longevity. |
| JEL: | I3 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19088&r=dem |
| By: | Brückner, Markus (National University of Singapore); Schwandt, Hannes (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Do populations grow as countries become richer? In this paper we estimate the effects on population growth of shocks to national income that are plausibly exogenous and unlikely to be driven by technological change. For a panel of over 139 countries spanning the period 1960-2007 we interact changes in international oil prices with countries' average net oil export shares in GDP. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, we find that this measure of oil price induced income growth is positively associated with population growth. The IV estimates indicate that a one percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth over a ten year period increases countries' population growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Further, we find that this population effect results from both a positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on infant and child mortality. |
| Keywords: | economic development, population growth |
| JEL: | O1 Q56 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7422&r=dem |
| By: | Claire Crawford (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Lorraine Dearden (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Bedford Group, Institute of Education, University of London); Ellen Greaves (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | Children born at the end of the academic year have lower educational attainment, on average, than those born at the start of the academic year. Previous research shows that the difference is most pronounced early in pupils’ school lives, but remains evident and statistically significant in high-stakes exams taken at the end of compulsory schooling. To determine the most appropriate policy response, it is vital to understand which of the four possible factors (age at test, age of starting school, length of schooling and relative age without cohort) lead to these differences in attainment between those born at different points in the academic year. However, research to date has been unable to adequately address this problem, as the four potential drivers are all highly correlated with one another, and three of the four form an exact linear relationship (age at test = age of starting school + length of schooling). This paper is the first to apply the principle of maximum entropy to this problem. Using two complementary sources of data we find that a child’s age at the time they take the test is the most important driver of the differences observed, which suggests that age-adjusting national achievement test scores is likely to be the most appropriate policy response to ensure that children born towards the end of the year are not at a disadvantage simply because they are younger when they take their exams. This working paper is supplemented by an online appendix which can be viewed here |
| Keywords: | Age-period-cohort problem, maximum entropy, month of birth, relative age, educational attainment |
| JEL: | I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:13/09&r=dem |
| By: | Michael Förster; Gerlinde Verbist |
| Abstract: | Public support to families with pre-school children can be in the form of cash benefits (e.g. child allowances) or of “in-kind” support (e.g. care services such as kindergartens). The mix of these support measures varies greatly across OECD countries, from a cash / in-kind composition of 10%/90% to 80%/20%. This paper imputes the value of services into an “extended” household income and compares the resulting distributive patterns and the redistributive effect of these two strands of family policies. On average, cash and in-kind transfers each constitute 7 – 8% of the incomes of families with young children. Both instruments are redistributive. Cash transfers reduce child poverty by one third, with the estimated impacts in Austria, Ireland, Sweden, Hungary and Finland performing above average. When services are accounted for, child poverty falls by one quarter and poverty among children enrolled in childcare is more than halved. This reduction is highest in Belgium, France, Hungary, Iceland and Sweden. The paper also presents simulations in which cash transfers are replaced by services, and vice versa, to provide a better understanding of these effects. The results from these simulations do not allow us to draw “generalised” conclusions as to which of the two instruments fares “better”. However, in a majority of countries, if all in-kind spending on childcare were transformed into cash benefits, a lump-sum approach (i.e. a basic income supplement to all children) would be more effective in reducing poverty than an up-rating of present child benefits. The analysis in this paper is exploratory in that it considers only the first-round distributive effects of the policy instruments and does not capture additional indirect and longer-term redistributive effects, in particular possible labour supply effects and their potential impact on household incomes. The hypothetical simulations constitute extreme cases in that the entire volume of early childhood education and care (ECEC) services is replaced by cash transfers, and vice versa. The simulations nevertheless provide useful benchmarks for estimating potential losses or gains in redistribution when key elements of the early childhood policy mix are to be changed. |
| Keywords: | child poverty, income distribution, cash and in-kind transfers, family policy |
| JEL: | D31 H40 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1304&r=dem |
| By: | S. Nuray Akin (Department of Economics, University of Miami); Oksana Leukhina (Department of Economics, University of Washington) |
| Abstract: | We report strong empirical support for the presence of a risk-sharing motive of within-family monetary flows. A standard model of risk-sharing predicts that the share of current family income consumed by a child positively depends on that child's lifetime contribution to the present value of the total family income. Therefore, sensitivity of transfer receipts to fluctuations in recipient's current income is smaller for children who contribute more. We test this distinguishing prediction of the risk-sharing model by exploiting the observed variation of parental transfers to siblings over 17 years in a longitudinal dataset derived from the Health and Retirement Study. |
| Keywords: | Risk-sharing, altruism, within-family transfers, Health and Retirement Study |
| JEL: | C5 E6 J1 |
| Date: | 2013–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mia:wpaper:2013-09&r=dem |
| By: | Claire Crawford (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Lorraine Dearden (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Bedford Group, Institute of Education, University of London); Ellen Greaves (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from a rich UK birth cohort to estimate the differences in cognitive and non-cognitive skills between children born at the start and end of the academic year. It builds on the previous literature on this topic in England by using a more robust regression discontinuity design and is also able to provide new insight into the drivers of the differences in outcomes between children born in different months that we observe. Specifically, we compare differences in tests that are affected by all three of the potential drivers (age at test, age of starting school and relative age) with differences in tests sat at the same age (which are therefore not affected by the age at test effect) as a way of separately identifying the age at test effect. We find that age at test is the most important factor driving the difference between the oldest and youngest children in an academic cohort; highlighting that children born at the end of the academic year are at a disadvantage primarily because they are almost a year younger than those born at the start of the academic year when they take national achievement tests. An appropriate policy response in this case is to appropriately age-adjust these tests. However, we also find evidence that a child’s view of their own scholastic competence differs significantly between those born at the start and end of the academic year, even when eliminating the age at test effect. This means that other policy responses may be required to correct for differences in outcomes amongst children born in different months, but not necessarily so: it may be that children’s view of their scholastic competence would change in response to the introduction of appropriately age-adjusted tests, for example as a result of positive reinforcement. |
| Keywords: | Month of birth, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:13/08&r=dem |
| By: | Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, Jose Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Cuesta, José A. (University of Zaragoza); Garcia-Lazaro, Carlos (University of Zaragoza); Moreno, Yamir (University of Zaragoza); Sanchez, Angel (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Charles Darwin (1874) stated that "women are less selfish but men are more competitive". Very recent papers (Eckel & Grossman, 1998, 2001 or Andreoni and Vesterlund 2001, among others) have shown the relevance of gender in altruism in both ultimatum and dictator games. In this paper we analyze the role of gender in repeated Prisoners' Dilemma played by Spanish high-school students in both a square lattice and a heterogeneous network. We find that female students have a higher probability of cooperation than male students. |
| Keywords: | high school students, cooperation, gender differences, prisoners' dilemma |
| JEL: | C72 C73 C93 D03 J16 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7421&r=dem |
| By: | Richard Blundell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Monica Costa Dias (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Costas Meghir (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University); Jonathan Shaw (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We consider the impact of tax credits and income support programs on female education choice, employment, hours and human capital accumulation over the life-cycle. We analyse both the short run incentive effects and the longer run implications of such programs. By allowing for risk aversion and savings, we quantify the insurance value of alternative programs. We find important incentive effects on education choice and labour supply, with single mothers having the most elastic labour supply. Returns to labour market experience are found to be substantial but only for full-time employment, and especially for women with more than basic formal education. For those with lower education the welfare programs are shown to have substantial insurance value. Based on the model, marginal increases to tax credits are preferred to equally costly increases in income support and to tax cuts, except by those in the highest education group. |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:13/10&r=dem |
| By: | Ahmed, Salma; Ray, Ranjan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of child labour on child health outcomes in Bangladesh. We use self-reported injury or illness due to work as a general measure of health status. Using the Bangladesh National Child Labour Survey data for 2002-2003, the results reveal that child labour is positively and significantly associated with the probability of being injured or becoming ill once the endogenous relationship between these factors is accounted for. These findings remain robust when we consider child labour hours and restrict our analysis to rural areas. Moreover, the intensity of injury or illness is significantly higher in construction and manufacturing sectors than in other sectors. Investigating the effect of child labour on subjective health across age groups, we find that health disadvantages for different age groups are not essentially parallel. |
| Keywords: | Child labour, health, Injury, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2012–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47157&r=dem |
| By: | Thierry Baudassé (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans); Rémi Bazillier (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans) |
| Abstract: | Our objective in this research is to provide empirical evidence relating to the linkages between gender equality and international emigration. Two theoretical hypotheses can be made for the purpose of analyzing such linkages. The fi rst is that gender inequality in origin countries could be a push factor for women. The second one is that gender inequality may create a \gender bias" in the selection of migrants within a household or a community. An improvement of gender equality would then increase female migration. We build several original indices of gender equality using principal component analysis. Our empirical results show that the push factor hypothesis is clearly rejected. All else held constant, improving gender equality in the workplace is positively correlated with the migration of women, especially of the high-skilled. We observe the opposite e ffect for low-skilled men. This result is robust to several speci cations and to various measurements of gender equality. |
| Keywords: | Migration ; Gender Inequality ; core labor standards |
| Date: | 2012–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00829526&r=dem |
| By: | Sagiri Kitao (Hunter College; Hunter College); Selahattin Imrohoroglu (University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business); Tomoaki Yamada (Meiji University) |
| Abstract: | Japan’s population is aging fast and the ratio of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to GDP is highest among advanced economies. In addition, further government spending is expected, causing concerns about the potential for JGBs to become a significant global issue. In this paper we build a micro-data based, large-scale overlapping generations model for Japan in which individuals differ in age, gender, employment type, income, and asset holdings, and incorporate the Japanese pension rules in detail. We estimate age-consumption and age-earnings profiles from micro data, assume complete markets and use these to generate tax revenues and transfer payments for government accounts. We calibrate the model so that it replicates the main macroeconomic and fiscal indicators for 2010. Using existing pension law and fiscal parameters and the medium variants of fertility and survival probability projections, we produce future time paths for JGBs and the pension fund. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal balance, Social security, Demographic trends |
| JEL: | H60 H55 J11 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:htr:hcecon:441&r=dem |
| By: | Erkan Gören (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the empirical relationship between the two concepts of ethnicity and economic growth. Ethnicity is assumed to affect economic growth through a number of possible transmission channels that are generally included in cross-country growth regressions by proposing an extended econometric system of equations to describe growth incorporates new channel variables for the potential indirect effects of ethnicity that are important in the process of economic development. The results, based on a sample of 95 countries for the period 1960-1999, suggest that the concept of ethnic fractionalization is a strong predictive measure for the direct effect of ethnicity on growth, whereas the concept of ethnic polarization has non-negligible indirect economic effects through the specified channel variables. |
| Keywords: | ethnic diversity; fractionalization; polarization; transmission channels; economic growth |
| JEL: | O11 O5 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:353&r=dem |
| By: | Bozzoli Carlos G. (Torcuato Di Tella University); Quintana-Domeque Climent (University of Alicante and Iza) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how birth weight in Argentina responds to prenatal economic fluctuations during the period from January 2000 to December 2005, and document its procyclicality, in particular with respect to the first and third trimesters of pregnancy. We find evidence that the birth weight of children of low-educated mothers is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations during both the first and third trimester of pregnancy, while that of high-educated mothers only reacts to the first trimester of pregnancy. Our results are consistent with low-educated women facing credit constraints and suffering from both nutritional deprivation and maternal stress, while high-educated women are only affected by stress. |
| Keywords: | Argentina, birth weight, trimester of pregnancy, economic crisis, macroeconomic shocks |
| JEL: | I12 E32 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbb:wpaper:2013125&r=dem |
| By: | Bent Nielsen; Maria Dolores Martinez Miranda; Jens Perch Nielsen |
| Abstract: | It is of considerable interest to forecast future mesothelioma mortality. No measures for exposure are available so it is not straight forward to apply a dose-response model. It is proposed to model the counts of deaths directly using a Poisson regression with an age-period-cohort structure, but without offset. Traditionally the age-period-cohort is viewed to suffer from an identification problem. It is shown how to re-parameterize the model in terms of freely varying parameters, so as to avoid this problem. It is shown how to conduct inference and how to construct distribution forecasts. |
| Date: | 2013–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2013-w05&r=dem |
| By: | Erkan Gören (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic growth impact of cultural diversity, both domestically and in neighbouring countries, in a balanced panel of 94 countries covering the period 1970 to 2004. The measures of cultural diversity used in this article were derived from a recently developed computer algorithm intended primarily to measure linguistic distances in an automated fashion. The empirical analysis suggests that the degree of cultural diversity in contiguous neighbouring countries has substantial positive effects on domestic per capita income growth, even controlling for a broad set of regional, institutional, religious and other proximate factors of economic growth. The conclusion is that culturally homogeneous countries gain a strategic advantage over their culturally diverse neighbours. |
| Keywords: | cultural diversity; ethnic diversity; economic growth |
| JEL: | O11 O5 |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:352&r=dem |
| By: | Vellore Arthi (University of Oxford); James Fenske (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We examine the determinants of time allocation and child labour in a year-long panel of time-use data from colonial Nigeria. Using quantitative and ethnographic approaches, we show that health shocks imposed time costs on individuals. Whether individuals could recruit substitutes depended on social standing, urgency of work, and type of illness. Child labour did not systematically respond to temporary parental illness, but could replace a permanently disabled adult. Child labour was coordinated with parental work, aided childcare, and allowed children to build skills and resources. These decisions can be understood within an endogenous bargaining power framework with labour complementarities. |
| Date: | 2013–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_114&r=dem |
| By: | Kalb, Guyonne (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research); van Ours, Jan C. (Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the importance of parents reading to their young children. Using Australian data we find that parental reading to children at age 4 to 5 has positive and significant effects on reading skills and cognitive skills of these children at least up to age 10 or 11. Our findings are robust to a wide range of sensitivity analyses. |
| Keywords: | reading to children, reading skills, other cognitive skills |
| JEL: | C26 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7416&r=dem |
| By: | Sepahvand, Mohammad (Department of Economics); Shahbazian, Roujman (Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI),); Bali Swain, Ranjula (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the time investment in cognitive and non-cognitive childcare activities by parents with different educational attainment. In a second step we also investigate this effect for three different child age cohorts. Past research shows that the degree of success in the labour market is highly connected to the individual’s cognitive and non-cognitive skills. We compare evidence based on Multinational Time Use Study (MTUS) for five countries: France, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom and United States of America in order to identify any systematic pattern. The results indicate that the educational gradients for cognitive and non-cognitive childcare activities are overall positive with respect to the level of education. Furthermore, the results seem to be consistent with the technology of skill formation. They indicate a concave function between time investment and the age of the child for cognitive childcare activities and a decreasing function for non-cognitive childcare activities. |
| Keywords: | Time allocation; cognitive skills; non-cognitive skills; intergenerational transmissions; human capital; technology of skill formation |
| JEL: | I21 J13 |
| Date: | 2013–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2013_010&r=dem |
| By: | Kumar, Santosh; Dansereau, Emily; Murray, Chris |
| Abstract: | Skilled attendance at childbirth is crucial for decreasing maternal and neonatal mortality, yet many women in low- and middle-income countries deliver outside of health facilities, without skilled help. Distance to health facility is considered to be an important non-monetary barrier that impede utilization of health facilities. In this paper, we examine if access to health facilities affects institutional births in a resource-constrained country like India. We use Two-Stage Residual Inclusion (2SRI) and IV-Probit models to account for endogenous placement of health facilities. Our findings indicate that women living closer to health facilities have a higher probability of giving birth in health facility. An increase of one kilometer in the distance to the nearest health facility decreases the probability of institutional delivery by 4.4%. The results from policy simulation suggest that restricting the maximum distance to 5 kilometers would increase institutional delivery by 10%. Overall, our findings show that distance is an important barrier to service utilization and increasing the density of health facilities or improving transport infrastructure may be an important policy tool to improve facility-based delivery in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | In-facility delivery, access, distance, India. |
| JEL: | I0 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2012–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:45762&r=dem |
| By: | Halvor Mehlum (Department of Economics, University of Oslo); Ragnar Torvik (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Simone Valente (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | China's growth is characterized by massive capital accumulation, made possible by high and increasing domestic savings. In this paper we develop a model with the aim of explaining why savings rates have been high and increasing, and we investigate the general equilibrium effects on capital accumulation and growth. We show that increased savings and capital accumulation stimulates further savings and capital accumulation, through an intergenerational distribution effect and an old-age requirement effect. We introduce what we term the savings multiplier, and we discuss why and how the one-child policy, and the dismantling of the cradle-to-grave social benefits provided through the state owned enterprises, have stimulated savings and capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | China, One-child policy, Overlapping generations, Growth, Savings |
| JEL: | O11 D91 E21 |
| Date: | 2013–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:14713&r=dem |
| By: | Arnaud Régnier-Loilier (Ined) |
| Abstract: | D'après l'enquête Érfi de 2005, près d'un enfant mineur de parents séparés sur dix ne voit jamais son père. Plus l'enfant est jeune au moment de la séparation des parents, moins il fréquente son père par la suite. La proportion d'enfants ne voyant plus leur père est plus élevée lorsque la demande de divorce n'a pas été conjointe mais à l'initiative de l'un des deux parents. Elle est aussi plus élevée lorsque le père est peu diplômé, au chômage ou en emploi précaire, ou a de faibles revenus. La rupture du lien père-enfant est moins fréquente avec une résidence alternée. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:posocf:500&r=dem |
| By: | Timoney, Kevin |
| Keywords: | population/migration/qec |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:resnot:rn2012/4/5&r=dem |
| By: | Salerno, Nicola Carmine |
| Abstract: | The paper proposes a method to speed up the transition toward the notional contributions pension system in Italy. It seems the most appropriate manner to combine and pursue employment and financial sustainability goals. The method computes percentages for abating the old retributive pensions taking into account the distance from the effective age /seniority at retirement at standard/pivotal values for age/seniority. |
| Keywords: | retirement, generational accounting, flexible retirement, labour market, actuarial neutralty, employment, unemployment, productivity, welfare, welfare system, financial sustainability, long-term sustainability, structural reforms, young workers, old workers |
| JEL: | A1 A10 D0 D04 D6 D61 E6 E60 E62 H0 H2 H5 H53 H55 I0 I3 I31 J08 J1 J14 |
| Date: | 2013–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47253&r=dem |
| By: | Doris Weichselbaumer |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a correspondence testing experiment is conducted to examine sexual orientation discrimination against lesbians in Germany. Applications for four fictional female characters are sent out in response to job advertisements: a heterosexual single, a married heterosexual, a single lesbian and a lesbian who is in a ‘same-sex registered partnership’. Different results are obtained for the two cities investigated, Munich and Berlin. While single lesbians and lesbians in a registered partnership are equally discriminated in comparison to the heterosexual women in the city of Munich, no discrimination based on sexual orientation has been found in Berlin. Furthermore, for a subset of our data we can compare the effects of a randomized versus a paired testing approach, which suggests that under certain conditions, due to increased conspicuity, the paired testing approach may lead to biased results. |
| JEL: | C93 J15 J71 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:nrnwps:2013_06&r=dem |
| By: | Luigi Guiso; Charles Gottlieb (Oxford University); Andreas Fagereng (European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | Models of life cycle portfolio decisions with labor income uniformly predict that investors should reduce their portfolio share in stocks as they age because human capital, which acts a bond, becomes a smaller component of household total wealth. Despite the fact that the prediction rests on an undisputed fact - the shrinking pattern of human wealth over the life cycle - it has not yet found empirical support. We study the life cycle portfolio allocation using a random sample of 75,000 households drawn from the Norwegian Tax Registry followed over 14 years which contains exhaustive and error-free information on all components of households’ investments. We find that both participation in the stock market and the portfolio share in stocks have important life cycle patterns. Participation is limited at all ages but follows a hump-shaped profile which peaks around retirement; as households retire and begin decumulating wealth, they start exiting the stock market. The share invested in stocks among the participants is high and flat for the young but investors start reducing it slowly as retirement age gets closer. Our data suggest a double adjustment as people age: a rebalancing of the portfolio away from stocks as they approach retirement, and stock market exit after retirement. Existing calibrated life cycle models can account for the first behavior but not the second. We show that extending the models in Gomes, Kotlikoff, and Viceira (2008) and Gomes and Michaelides (2003) to incorporate reasonable per period participation costs can generate a joint pattern of participation and the risky asset share over the life cycle similar to the one observed in the data. In addition, if we add a small perceived probability of being cheated when investing in stocks, the model predicts a share in stocks much closer to the one observed in the data. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed012:783&r=dem |
| By: | Asoni, Andrea (Charles River Associates); Sanandaji, Tino (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Having a military that is representative of the population is a stated social goal by policy makers. Since the armed forces do not gather data on the family income of recruits, studies on the socioeconomic background have relied on potentially biased geographic data, reaching conflicting conclusions. We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to study population representativeness in the years 1997–2011 based on individual level data. In contrast to previous periods, and contrary to popular perception, those who joined the military had higher than median family income and wealth. The lowest and highest parental income categories are both underrepresented in the military. Those who joined were more likely to pursue higher education and had higher self-reported life satisfaction. Recruits had 0.2 standard deviation higher cognitive tests scores than the civilian population. Higher cognitive test scores strongly increases the probability of joining for those from lower and middle income families while interestingly lowering the probability of joining for those from high-income homes. The over-representation of minorities in the military has declined in recent decades. In sharp contrast to the Vietnam War, Non-Hispanic Whites are significantly overrepresented as casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan. |
| Keywords: | Military service; Occupational choice; Human capital |
| JEL: | H41 J18 J24 |
| Date: | 2013–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0965&r=dem |
| By: | Schmillen, Achim (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Umkehrer, Matthias (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "Does early-career unemployment cause future unemployment? We answer this question with German administrative matched employer-employee data that track more than 800,000 individuals over 24 years. Using a censored quantile instrumental variable estimator and instrumenting early-career unemployment with local labor market conditions at labor market entry and firm-specific labor demand shocks, we find significant and longlasting scarring effects. At the median, an additional day of unemployment during the first eight years on the labor market increases unemployment in the following 16 years by 0.96 days. Effects are even stronger in the right tail of the unemployment distribution. Likely due to unobserved heterogeneity in returns to search, they are also understated by non-IV estimates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Jugendarbeitslosigkeit - Auswirkungen, junge Erwachsene, Jugendliche, ältere Arbeitnehmer, mittleres Lebensalter, Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer - Determinanten |
| JEL: | J64 J62 C20 |
| Date: | 2013–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201306&r=dem |
| By: | Verpoorten, Marijke; Serneels, Pieter |
| Abstract: | We study whether conflict had an impact on economic performance across Rwandan administrative sectors six years after end of massive violence. Economic performance is measured using household expenditure data from a nationwide survey. Conflict intensity is measured using an index of excess mortality called WEMI (wartime excess mortality index). The findings show that economic performance was significantly lower in conflict-affected sectors, even after controlling for production factors (land, labor, education). |
| Keywords: | Rwanda |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:apbrfs:2013002&r=dem |
| By: | Catalina HERRERA (Cornell University - Cornell University - Cornell University); David Sahn (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the socio-economic determinants of youth decision to internally migrate in Senegal. Young people undertake mostly rural-to-rural and urban-to-urban migrations and over half of them are temporary migrants. Using multinomial logit models, we estimate the role of household and community characteristics during childhood in later youth migration decisions. We find that these determinants are heterogeneous by gender and destination. The higher the fathers' education the more (less) likely are their daughters to move to urban (rural) areas. Young individuals, who spend their childhood in better off households, are more likely to move to urban areas. Also, the presence of younger siblings increases the propensity of moving to rural areas. Access to primary schools during childhood decreases the likelihood of migrating to urban areas for both men and women. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration;senegal;youth;multinomial logit |
| Date: | 2013–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00826995&r=dem |
| By: | Tristan Boyer; Regis Blazy |
| Abstract: | Based on French data describing the characteristics of the entrepreneurs and their project, this paper studies the differences between the determinants of survival for innovative and non-innovative micro-enterprises. We show that the survival of innovative and non-innovative enterprises is linked to personal criteria such as age, gender, minority, professional experience and financing sources. Our results also highlight the positive effect of not being alone in the start-up design phase, whereas being involved in a business network after the start-up period has no significant influence. The survival time of innovative enterprises, which is significantly lower than that of the non-innovative ones, seems adversely influenced by the entrepreneur’s previous management experience. Finally, when considering both innovative and non-innovative start-ups, there appears to be a type of “pecking order” as bank financing has a much more positive effect on survival than a personal one, albeit when focusing solely on innovative ones this difference does not exist. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneur, innovation, micro-enterprise, survival, pecking order. |
| JEL: | L26 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:12&r=dem |
| By: | Ken Tabata (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a simple Malthusian model to explain per capita income differences in the Malthusian era by focusing on regional variations in the expansion of the commercial sector. This paper shows that a larger productivity improvement in the skilled intensive commercial sector relative to the improvement in the unskilled intensive agricultural sector causes a higher per capita income in the Malthusian steady-state equilibrium by enhancing the child quantity-quality transition. From the late Middle Ages, Northwestern Europe (Britain and the Netherlands) was characterized by dramatic growth of both the commercial sector and urbanization, high literacy rates, and a low-pressure demographic regime, and thus, these regions developed very differently from the rest of Europe. Our results are somewhat consistent with the relevant experiences of Northwestern Europe in the preindustrial era. |
| Keywords: | Commercial Sector, Sectoral Productivity Improvement, Child Quantity-Quality Transition, Malthusian Era |
| JEL: | J10 N10 O11 O33 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:105&r=dem |
| By: | Biørn, Erik (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo); Bjørnsen, Hild-Marte (Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | In this paper some labour market consequences of transitions in the agriculture sector are examined by combining a 20-year unbalanced panel data set from Norwegian farm couples (households) and logit modeling of one-period transition probabilities. The multi-dimensionality of the problem follows from two decision makers (partners) having four possible choices in each period: the farm operator and spouse can be working fully on the farm or having supplementary outside occupation. Transition probabilities are modeled by five alternative logit models. State dependence is represented to different extent. The most flexible model has a high number of parameters. Overall, the results indicate that transitions have mainly bee directed towards the state where both partners work off the farm. An increasing livestock reduces the probability of moving to states with substantial off-farm labour participation. Increased farm size tends to have the opposite effect. Recent on-farm investments come out with ambiguous effects, and the pattern seems to change during the observation period. Having children seems to motivate operators to withdraw from off-farm labour and spouses to stay in or entering off-farm employment. |
| Keywords: | Labour market transitions; Agriculture; Panel data; Markov chain; Logit analysis; State dependence; Multiple job-holding |
| JEL: | C23 C25 C33 C35 J43 J62 |
| Date: | 2013–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_009&r=dem |
| By: | Kaja Høiseth Brugård (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology; Center for Economic Research at NTNU) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies effects of the proportion of girls in compulsory education on further education. I use detailed Norwegian register data to estimate the influence of the proportion of girls in the last grade of compulsory education on high school education and university attainment. A higher proportion of girls is found to increase the probability of graduating from high school. The result is robust to several model specifications. The analysis also indicates a positive effect on enrollment in higher education. Heterogeneity and non-linearity analyses indicate that gender peer effects are most important for students most likely to be on the margin of graduating from high school and enrolling in higher education, and when the share of female students is low. |
| Keywords: | school choice, high school education, student achievement |
| JEL: | I2 I21 |
| Date: | 2013–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:14613&r=dem |
| By: | Biørn, Erik (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | In the paper is considered identification of coefficients in equations explaining a continuous variable, say the number of sickness absence days of an individual per year, by cohort, time and age, subject to their definitional identity. Extensions of a linear equation to polynomials, including additive polynomials, are explored. The cohort+time=age identity makes the treatment of interactions important. If no interactions between the three variables are included, only the coefficients of the linear terms remain unidentified unless additional information is available. Illustrations using a large data set for individual long-term sickness absence in Norway are given. The sensitivity to the estimated marginal effects of cohort and age at the samplemean, as well as conclusions about the equations’ curvature, are illustrated. We find notable differences in this respect between linear and quadratic equations on the one hand and cubic and fourth-order polynomials on the other. |
| Keywords: | AGe cohort-time problem; Identification; Polynomial regression; Interaction; Age-cohort curvature; Panel data; Sickness absence |
| JEL: | C23 C24 C25 C52 H55 I18 J21 |
| Date: | 2013–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_008&r=dem |
| By: | Martina Zweimüller |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence suggests that relative age, which is determined by date of birth and the school entry cutoff date, has a causal effect on track choice. Using a sample of male labor market entrants drawn from Austrian register data, I analyze whether the initial assignment to different school tracks has persistent effects on educational attainment and earnings in the first years of the career. I estimate the reduced-form effect of the school entry law on starting wages and find a wage penalty of 1.1–2.0 percent for students born in August (the youngest) compared to students born in September (the oldest). The analysis of educational attainment suggests that significant differences in the type of education exist. Younger students are more likely to pursue an apprenticeship and less likely to have higher education. After five years of labor market experience, the wage penalty amounts to 0.8–1.1 percent, suggesting a persistent (albeit decreasing) negative effect of the school entry rule on labor market outcomes in an early tracking system. |
| Keywords: | School entry law, early tracking, educational attainment, earnings, labor market entrants |
| JEL: | I21 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:nrnwps:2013_05&r=dem |
| By: | Ljunge, Martin (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | I establish a positive relationship between family ties and civic virtues, as captured by disapproval of tax and benefit cheating, corruption, and a range of other dimensions of exploiting others for personal gain. I find that family ties are a complement to social capital, using within country evidence from 83 nations and data on second generation immigrants in 29 countries with ancestry in 85 nations. Strong families cultivate universalist values and produce more civic and altruistic individuals. The results provide a constructive role for families in promoting family values, which challenge an ‘amoral familism.’ Moreover, strong families are complementary with more developed and democratic institutions. The results provide a constructive role for families in promoting family values that support successful societies with a high state and fiscal capacity. |
| Keywords: | Family ties; Civic; Family values; Cultural transmission; Altruism; Social capital |
| JEL: | A13 H26 P16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2013–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0967&r=dem |