nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2013‒03‒23
thirty papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Do Parents Drink Their Children's Welfare? A Joint Analysis of Intra-Household Allocation of Time By Giannelli, Gianna Claudia; Mangiavacchi, Lucia; Piccoli, Luca
  2. Factors Constraining Iowa Labor Force Growth Through 2020 By Swenson, David A.
  3. The Labor Market Behavior of Married Women with Young Children in the U.S.: Have Differences by Religion Disappeared? By Lehrer, Evelyn L.; Chen, Yu
  4. Fiscal Austerity, Unemployment and Suicide Rates in Greece By Antonakakis, Nikolaos
  5. How Sensitive Are Individual Retirement Expectations to Raising the Retirement Age? By de Grip, Andries; Fouarge, Didier; Montizaan, Raymond
  6. More than a Million New American Indians in 2000: Who are They? By Carolyn A. Liebler; Timothy Ortyl
  7. Seniors en emploi et conciliation travail-famille. By Marie-Agnès Barrère-Maurisson
  8. Pure Ethnic Gaps in Educational Attainment and School to Work Transitions: When Do They Arise? By Baert, Stijn; Cockx, Bart
  9. Impacts of Parental Health Shocks on Children’s NonCognitive Skills By Franz Westermaier; Brant Morefield; Andrea Mühlenweg
  10. Women Entrepreneurship Promotion in Developing Countries: What explains the gender gap in entrepreneurship and how to close it? By Saskia Vossenberg
  11. An Equilibrium Search Model of the Labor Market Entry of Second-Generation Immigrants and Ethnic Danes By Datta Gupta, Nabanita; Kromann, Lene
  12. The Economy-wide Impacts of the South African Child Support Grant: a Micro-Simulation-Computable General Equilibrium Analysis By Luca Tiberti; Hélène Maisonnave; Margaret Chitiga; Ramos Mabugu; Véronique Robichaud; Stewart Ngandu
  13. The Emergence of Three Human Development Clubs By Sebastian Vollmer; Hajo Holzmann; Florian Ketterer; Stephan Klasen; David Canning
  14. The impact of managed care on the gender earnings gap among physicians By Alicia Sasser Modestino
  15. Is the Willingness to Take Financial Risk a Sex-Linked Trait?: Evidence from National Surveys of Household Finance By Nataliya Barasinska; Dorothea Schäfer
  16. Family size and children quality: New evidence and new exogenous shocks in the case of Colombian Households By Román David Zárate
  17. SSI for Disabled Immigrants: Why Do Ethnic Networks Matter? By Delia Furtado; Nikolaos Theodoropoulos
  18. Weather and Welfare: Health and Agricultural Impacts of Climate Extremes, Evidence from Mexico By Roberto Guerrero Compean
  19. Male, migrant, muslim : Identities and entitlements of Afghans and Bengalis in a South Delhi neighbourhood By Chakraborty, M.
  20. Effects of Welfare Reform on Women’s Crime By Hope Corman; Dhaval M. Dave; Nancy E. Reichman
  21. Labour-Market Outcomes of Older Workers in the Netherlands: Measuring Job Prospects Using the Occupational Age Structure By Bosch, Nicole; ter Weel, Bas
  22. Skill Premia and Intergenerational Skill Transmission: The French Case By B. Ben Halima; N. Chusseau; J. Hellier
  23. The Political Economics of the Arab Spring By Roland Hodler
  24. Interdisciplinary research collaboration as the future of ancient history? Insights from spying on demographers By Saskia C. Hin
  25. Discrimination via Exclusion: An Experiment on Group Identity and Club Goods By Surajeet Chakravarty; Miguel A. Fonseca
  26. Trust of Second Generation Immigrants: Intergenerational Transmission or Cultural Assimilation? By Julie Moschion; Domenico Tabasso
  27. How Will Older Workers Who Lose Their Jobs During the Great Recession Fare in the Long-Run? By Matthew S. Rutledge; Natalia Orlova; Anthony Webb
  28. Top Team Demographics, Innovation and Business Performance: Findings from English Firms and Cities 2008-9 By Max Nathan
  29. The Transformation of Hunger Revisited By Gazeley, Ian; Newell, Andrew T.; Bezabih, Mintewab
  30. "Expanding Social Protection in Developing Countries: A Gender Perspective" By Rania Antonopoulos

  1. By: Giannelli, Gianna Claudia (University of Florence); Mangiavacchi, Lucia (University of the Balearic Islands); Piccoli, Luca (University of the Balearic Islands)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate whether excessive parental alcohol consumption leads to a reduction of child welfare. To this end, we analyse whether alcohol consumption decreases time spent by parents looking after their children and working. Using the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the study focuses on mono-nuclear families with children under fifteen years of age, for whom we estimate a model of intra-household allocation of time. We find that husbands' alcohol consumption has a negative impact on their weekly hours spent doing child care, while no significant effect is observed for mothers' alcohol consumption. We interpret these findings as evidence of a negative impact of fathers' alcohol consumption on child welfare.
    Keywords: child care, time allocation, alcohol consumption, labor supply, Russia
    JEL: D1 I1 J13 J22
    Date: 2013–02
  2. By: Swenson, David A.
    Abstract: Iowa endured high outmigration rates among young adults during the 2000 to 2010 period.  In light of accelerating exits from the labor force as the "baby boom" generation reaches retirement age and Iowa's somewhat smaller labor force ages 25 through 44 than the national average, the state's labor force is projected to contract.This report uses age and sex specific mortality and migration rates from the 2000 to 2010 period to project Iowa's working age population by 2020.  Overall, the projections indicate an expected contraction in the Iowa population ages 16 to 64 of 74,142 persons.  If that is the case, Iowa's economy may have trouble expanding.
    Keywords: labor force; migration; population projection; survival rates; economic growth
    Date: 2013–03–13
  3. By: Lehrer, Evelyn L. (University of Illinois at Chicago); Chen, Yu (University of Illinois at Chicago)
    Abstract: Using data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth, conducted in the United States, we study the role of religious affiliation and participation in the labor supply behavior of non-Hispanic married women with young children. We estimate ordered probit models with a trichotomous dependent variable indicating full-time employment, part-time employment or non-employment. We find that the labor market decisions of Catholic women are not significantly different from those of their mainline Protestant counterparts, and that women affiliated with conservative Protestant denominations continue to stand out for their low levels of labor market attachment. With regard to religious participation, we find a non-linear association: the probability of non-employment is high both among women who have zero attendance at religious services and among those who attend more than once a week - the latter especially. Reasons for these non-linearities are explored. Our results suggest that future research on relationships between religious participation and various economic and demographic outcomes should be based on models that allow for non-linearities and also for differences in the effects of religious participation by religious affiliation.
    Keywords: women's labor market behavior, female employment, religion, religious affiliation, religious participation
    JEL: J22 J24 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2013–02
  4. By: Antonakakis, Nikolaos
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of fiscal austerity, among other socioeconomic variables, on suicide rates in Greece over the period 1968-2011. Our results suggest that fiscal austerity, higher unemployment rates, negative economic growth and reduced fertility rates, significantly increase suicide rates in Greece, while increased alcohol consumption and divorce rates do not exert any significant influence on suicide rates. Interestingly, the effects of fiscal austerity and economic growth are gender-specific, as fiscal austerity measures and negative economic growth significantly increase male suicide rates, while no significantly effects of fiscal austerity and negative economic growth on female suicide rates could be identified. Finally, the effects of fiscal austerity on suicide rate are also age-specific, affecting mostly the population between the ages of 45 and 89 years. These results have important implications for policy makers, and for the creation and implementation of specialised suicide prevention programs in Greece by national health agencies.
    Keywords: Fiscal austerity; suicide rate; unemployment; debt crisis
    JEL: C22 H30 H55 H62 I18 J11
    Date: 2013–03–18
  5. By: de Grip, Andries (ROA, Maastricht University); Fouarge, Didier (ROA, Maastricht University); Montizaan, Raymond (ROA, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causal effects of the announcement of an increase in the statutory pension age on employee retirement expectations. In June 2010, the Dutch government signed a new pension agreement with the employer and employee organizations that entailed an increase in the statutory pension age from 65 currently to 66 in 2020 for all inhabitants born after 1954. Given the expected increase in average life expectancy, it was also decided that in 2025 the pension age would be further increased to 67 for those born after 1959. This new pension agreement received huge media coverage. Using representative matched administrative and survey data of public sector employees, we find that the proposed policy reform increased the expected retirement age by 3.6 months for employees born between 1954 and 1959 and by 10.8 months for those born after 1959. This increase is reflected in a clear shift in the retirement peak from age 65 to ages 66 and 67 for the respective treated cohorts. Men respond less strongly to the policy reform than women, but within couples we find no evidence that the retirement expectations of one spouse are affected by an increase in the statutory pension age of the other. Furthermore, we show that treatment effects are largely driven by highly educated individuals but are lower for employees whose job involves physically demanding tasks or managerial and supervisory tasks.
    Keywords: retirement, labor supply, pension system reform, cross-spouse effects
    JEL: J14 J26
    Date: 2013–03
  6. By: Carolyn A. Liebler; Timothy Ortyl
    Abstract: Over a million people reported their race as American Indian in the 2000 U.S. Census but did not report that race in the 1990 Census. We investigate three questions related to this extraordinary population change: (1) Which subgroups of American Indians had the greatest numerical growth? (2) Which subgroups had the greatest proportional increase? And (3) is it plausible that all “new” American Indians reported multiple races in 2000? We use full-count and high-density decennial U.S. census data; adjust for birth, death, and immigration; decompose on age, gender, Latino origin, education, and birth state; and compare the observed American Indian subgroup sizes in 2000 to the sizes expected based on 1990 counts. The largest numerical increases were among non-Latino youth (ages 10-19), non-Latino adult women, and adults with no college degree. Latinos, highly-educated adults, and women have the largest proportionate gains, perhaps indicating that “American Indian” has special appeal in these groups. We also find evidence that a substantial number of new American Indians reported only American Indian race in 2000, rather than a multiple-race response. This research is relevant to social theorists, race scholars, community members, program evaluators, and the Census Bureau.
    Keywords: Race, American Indian, U.S. Census, Research Data Center, racial identification
    Date: 2013–03
  7. By: Marie-Agnès Barrère-Maurisson (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)
    Abstract: The employment of the seniors is one of the stakes of the next years in our developed companies. Indeed those will be more numerous, at the same time for demographic reasons and because of the retreat of the retirement age (in particular for the women). Thus, the companies will be more often confronted with the question of the conditions of employment of the seniors who must assume the load, partial or more important, of their own old parents. This family load will be added in many cases to that which they already assume near their grandchildren. The active people of more than 55 years thus have an important load of domestic work completed for others, in particular for the widened family, while at the same time their own health starts to degrade itself. One proposes here to analyze the incidences as of these phenomena on the conditions of employment of the active seniors, and this in two directions. First of all impact on the practices of the companies in terms of management and adjustment of times. Then, as regards employee, as regards practices of management of personal times: working time, domestic time, "large-parental time" and "time of intergenerational solidarity".
    Keywords: Work/family, seniors, working time, domestic time, parental time.
    JEL: J12 J14 J16 J21 J22 J26
    Date: 2013–03
  8. By: Baert, Stijn (Ghent University); Cockx, Bart (Ghent University)
    Abstract: This article decomposes the observed gaps in educational attainment and school-to-work transitions between grandchildren of natives and immigrants in Belgium into (i) differences in observed family endowments and (ii) a residual "pure ethnic gap". It innovates by explicitly taking delays in educational attainment into account, by identifying the moments at which the pure ethnic gaps arise, by disentangling the decision to continue schooling at the end of a school year from the achievement within a particular grade, and by integrating the language spoken at home among observed family endowments. The pure ethnic gap in educational attainment is found to be small if delays are neglected, but substantial if not and for school-to-work transitions. It is shown that more than 20% of the pure ethnic gap in graduating from secondary school without delay originates in tenth grade. Language usage explains only part of the gap in school-to-work transitions for low educated.
    Keywords: dynamic discrete choice, dynamic selection bias, educational attainment, school-to-work transitions, ethnic minorities, discrimination
    JEL: C35 J15 J70
    Date: 2013–03
  9. By: Franz Westermaier (University of Marburg); Brant Morefield (Abt Associates Inc., Durham NC); Andrea Mühlenweg (University of Hannover)
    Abstract: We examine how parental health shocks affect children’s non-cognitive skills. Based on a German mother-and-child data base, we draw on significant changes in selfreported parental health as an exogenous source of health variation to identify effects on outcomes for children at ages of three and six years. At the age of six, we observe that maternal health shocks in the previous three years have significant negative effects on children’s behavioral outcomes. The most serious of these maternal health shocks decrease the observed non-cognitive skills up to half a standard deviation. Paternal health does not robustly affect non-cognitive outcomes.
    Keywords: Human capital, health, non-cognitive skills
    JEL: I00 J24 I10
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Saskia Vossenberg (Maastricht School of Management, PO Box 1203, 6201 BE Maastricht, The Netherlands)
    Abstract: Despite the growing number of women-led business and a significant increase of initiatives, policies and resources designed to promote and develop women’s entrepreneurship, the gender gap in entrepreneurship persist. This paper addresses two questions: Why does the gender gap in entrepreneurship persist? And, what does the literature suggest to us about the best ways to promote women’s entrepreneurship? Based on a feminist perspective this paper argues that current women entrepreneurship promotion policies undoubtedly benefit individual women but when the gender bias in the context in which entrepreneurship is embedded, is left intact, efforts may remain in vain and without any significant macroeconomic or social impact.
    Date: 2013–03
  11. By: Datta Gupta, Nabanita (Aarhus University); Kromann, Lene (CEBR, Copenhagen)
    Abstract: Using a search model for Danish labor market entrants, we are one of the first studies to test whether second‐generation immigrants have the same job‐offer arrival and layoff rates as ethnic Danes have. We contribute to the search literature by incorporating matching as a way to ensure sub‐sample homogeneity. Thus, we match second‐generation immigrants to their ethnic Danish twins on the basis of parental characteristics and informal network quality. There are big differences before matching, but after matching, second‐generation immigrants perform as well or better than their ethnic Dane counterparts do on the labor market, though not with respect to layoffs. This result is mainly driven by the group of high school graduates and those with a primary school education only. Second generation immigrants with vocational education, males in particular, face both significantly lower arrival rates when unemployed and significantly higher layoff rates than those of their ethnic Danish twins.
    Keywords: firm behavior, equilibrium search model, matching, second‐generation immigrants
    JEL: J15 J61 J71
    Date: 2013–02
  12. By: Luca Tiberti; Hélène Maisonnave; Margaret Chitiga; Ramos Mabugu; Véronique Robichaud; Stewart Ngandu
    Abstract: We examine the economy-wide impact of the child support grant (CSG) on the South African economy using a bottom-up/top-down approach. This allows us to estimate the potential effects on households’ welfare and on the economy following a change in the CSG. Three simulations are presented, in simulation 1 the value of the CSG is increased by 20%; in simulation 2 the number of beneficiaries among the eligible children is increased by two million and simulation 3 combines these two. A positive link between the CSG and the probability of participating in the labour market is found. The positive impacts on the labour market, together with the increase in the transfers received by households, results in an increase in their income. Poverty decreases in comparison with the base year for the whole population and for children. Finally, we can conclude that simulation 1 is the most cost effective of the policies.
    Keywords: Child support grant, computable general equilibrium, micro-simulation, poverty, South Africa
    JEL: D58 E24 E6 H53 I3 J01 O55
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Sebastian Vollmer (University of Göttingen and Harvard School of Public Health); Hajo Holzmann (University of Marburg); Florian Ketterer (University of Marburg); Stephan Klasen (University of Göttingen); David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health)
    Abstract: We examine the joint distribution of levels of income per capita, life expectancy, and years of schooling across countries in 1960 and in 2000. In 1960 countries were clustered in two groups; a rich, highly educated, high longevity “developed” group and a poor, less educated, high mortality, “underdeveloped” group. By 2000 however we see the emergence of three groups; one underdeveloped group remaining near 1960 levels, a developed group with higher levels of education, income, and health than in 1960, and an intermediate group lying between these two. This finding is consistent with both the ideas of a new “middle income trap” that countries face even if they escape the “low income trap”, as well as the notion that countries which escaped the poverty trap form a temporary “transition regime” along their path to the “developed” group.
    Keywords: income per capita, life expectancy, schooling, income trap
    Date: 2013–03
  14. By: Alicia Sasser Modestino
    Abstract: Important differences in labor market characteristics suggest that men and women physicians may be viewed as imperfect substitutes in the labor market. Concerns about efficiency and cost-cutting, which have led to the adoption of managed care practices, may have (unintentionally) favored female physicians. Using data from the Young Physicians Survey, the author compares changes in the gender earnings gap for physicians in states with high versus low managed care growth during the 1980s. She finds that the gender gap in hourly earnings among physicians in states with high managed care growth narrowed by 10 percentage points relative to states with low managed care growth. Moreover, Census data show that this finding holds only for physicians and not for other professions requiring advanced degrees. Further analysis shows that managed care appears to affect the relative earnings of male and female physicians by compressing the overall distribution of physician earnings. Together, these results suggest that the spread of managed care has been a factor in improving the relative earnings of female physicians. More broadly, these results suggest that market changes can have important consequences for the gender earnings gap when there are large pre-existing differences between men and women within a profession.
    Keywords: Wages - Women ; Medical care ; Career development - Sex differences
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Nataliya Barasinska; Dorothea Schäfer
    Abstract: We investigate whether the willingness to take investment risk is a sex-linked trait and link the results to the country's gender equality regime. Our empirical analysis involves household data on financial asset holdings as well as on self-reported risk tolerance for Austria, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Of those countries, Italy is by far the country with the greatest degree of gender inequality according to the 2009 Global Gender Gap Report. Two stages of building a portfolio of financial assets are analyzed. For the first-stage decision of whether to invest in risky assets in the first place, gender is found to have no effect in Austria, the Netherlands and Spain but does have an impact in Italy. However, even for Italy, it seems to be irrelevant in the second-stage decision about the share of wealth invested in the risky assets. We infer from these findings that, for countries with a high degree of gender equality, it is inappropriate to base financial advice primarily on gender.
    Keywords: Gender, risk aversion, financial behavior
    JEL: G11 J16
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Román David Zárate
    Abstract: The interaction between family size and children quality has been a recurring topic in the economics of family. However, there is scarce evidence in Latin America, and the literature has not yet explored new mechanisms to explain either positive or null effects of an additional sibling found by different authors in the last ten years. This article addresses these two issues. On the one hand, I construct a simple theoretical model which rationalizes negative and positive effects of an additional sibling due to family interactions. On the other hand, I estimate the effect of family size in Colombia on school lag, school attendance, school dropout and child labor. I use data from the Demographic and Health survey and construct a set of instruments based on the report of the ideal number of children. The novelty of the instruments lies in that unlike most articles which can only estimate the effect from two siblings onwards, I can estimate the effect of a first sibling. I find that for first (second) born children a first (second) sibling generates null or positive effects on the four outcomes but there are negative effects from two (three) siblings onwards on the four outcomes.
    Date: 2013–02–27
  17. By: Delia Furtado; Nikolaos Theodoropoulos
    Abstract: Immigrants residing among many people who share their ethnic background are especially likely to receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for a disability when they belong to high SSI take-up immigrant groups. After showing that this relationship cannot be fully explained by differences in health, we consider the likely sources of these network effects by separately examining their role in the decision to apply for SSI and, conditional on applying, their role in determining who ultimately receives benefits. Our results suggest that networks may increase the probability of applying for SSI despite minor disabilities, but it is unlikely that network effects are driven by egregious lies on applications.
    Date: 2013–02
  18. By: Roberto Guerrero Compean
    Abstract: Using data for all 2,454 municipalities of Mexico for the period 1980-2010, this paper analyzes the relationship between exposure to extreme temperatures and precipitation and death, as well as the relationship between severe weather and agricultural income and crop production in the country. It is found that extreme heat increases mortality, while the health effect of extreme cold is generally trivial. Precipitation extremes seem to affect the agricultural system, but their impact on mortality is ambiguous. More specifically, exchanging one day with a temperature of 16-18C for one day with temperatures higher than 30C increases the crude mortality rate by 0. 15 percentage points, a result robust to several model specifications. It is also found that the extreme heat effect on death is significantly more acute in rural regions, leading to increases of up to 0. 2 percentage points vis-‡-vis a 0. 07-point increase in urban areas. The timing of climate extremes is relevant: if a weather shock takes place during the agricultural growing season, the effects on mortality and agricultural output, productivity, prices, and crop yields are large and significant, but not so if such shocks occur during the non-growing season.
    JEL: I12 Q12 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2013–03
  19. By: Chakraborty, M.
    Abstract: In recent time Delhi has revealed its ambitions as a global city. The consequent need for cheap, casual, migrant labour for maintaining its world-scale ambitions has been highlighted in a lot of literature, particularly in the post Commonwealth Games (CWG) period. The migrant labourers in the informal economy of Delhi are seen as oppressed, particularly if they belong to a subordinated social group, like the Muslim male migrants. However, there is need to examine the homogenization implied by ‘Muslim male migrants’. This research aims to challenge the one-dimensional depiction of Muslim male migrants as ‘victims’. Analysing the narratives of two groups of Muslim migrant men in a South Delhi neighbourhood, this research tries to critically look at stable markers of identity such as ethnicity, gender and class. The research reveals identities as fluid, multiple and relational. The men emerge as complex subjects—not just passive ‘victims’ but capable of asserting agency, often through the strategic mobilisation of their multiple identities.
    Keywords: ethnicity;men;migrants;multiple identities;Afghan migrants;Bengali migrants;Delhi;Delhi Master Plan 2021;Muslim men;Right to the City;feminist methodology;informal economy;masculinities;rickshaw-pullers;urban citizenship
    Date: 2013–02–28
  20. By: Hope Corman; Dhaval M. Dave; Nancy E. Reichman
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of broad-based work incentives on female crime by exploiting the welfare reform legislation of the 1990s, which dramatically increased employment among women at risk for relying on cash assistance. We find that welfare reform decreased female property crime arrests by 4–5%, but did not affect other types of crimes. The effects appear to be stronger in states with lower welfare benefits and higher earnings disregards, and in states with larger caseload declines. The findings point to broad-based work incentives—and, by inference, employment—as a key determinant of female property crime.
    JEL: H53 I3 J22 K42
    Date: 2013–03
  21. By: Bosch, Nicole (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); ter Weel, Bas (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: This paper analyses changes in job opportunities of older workers in the Netherlands in the period 1996-2010. The standard human capital model predicts that, as a result of human capital obsolescence, mobility becomes more costly when workers become older. We measure and interpret how changing job opportunities across 96 occupations affect different age and skill groups. Older workers end up in shrinking occupations, in occupations with a lower share of high-skilled workers, in occupations facing a higher threat of offshoring tasks abroad, more focus on routine-intensive tasks and less rewarding job content. This process is not only observed for the oldest group of workers, but for workers aged 40 and above. Observing older workers in declining occupations is to a large extent a market outcome, but declining job opportunities in terms of less satisfying working conditions and job tasks and content could potentially raise incentives to retire early.
    Keywords: occupational mobility, employment, older workers
    JEL: J24 J60
    Date: 2013–02
  22. By: B. Ben Halima (EQUIPPE, Univ. of Lille 1 and MESHS); N. Chusseau (EQUIPPE, Univ. of Lille 1 and MESHS); J. Hellier (LEMNA, University of Nantes)
    Abstract: In the case of France, we analyse the changes (i) in the skill premium linked to each level of education and (ii) in the impact of parents’ skill and income upon the educational attainment of their children. To this end, we build a theoretical model which is subsequently estimated. Our calculations firstly reveal (i) a critical decline in the skill premium of the Baccalaureate in relation to the lowest skill level, and (ii) an increase in the skill premia of higher education in relation to the Baccalaureate, which however is not large enough to avoid the decrease in all the skill premia relative to the lowest skill. Secondly, we find (i) a significant increase in the impact of the family backgrounds upon the individuals’ education from 1993 to 2003 which essentially derives from a higher impact of parental income upon the educational attainment, and (ii) an increase in the impact of public expenditure upon education. Consequently, if inequality has decreased among the employed population, the slowdown in intergenerational mobility could reverse this tendency in the longer term. This may however be offset by higher public educational expenditure.
    Keywords: Family backgrounds, intergenerational mobility, return to education, skill premium
    JEL: I2 J24 J31
    Date: 2013–01
  23. By: Roland Hodler
    Abstract: The Arab Spring has led to very different outcomes across the Arab world. I present a highly stylized model of the Arab Spring to better understand these differences. In this model, dictators from the ethnic or religious majority group concede power if their country is oil-poor, but can stay in power by bribing the people if their country is oil-rich. Dictators from the minority group often rely on other members of their group to repress protests and to fight the majority group if necessary. These predictions are consistent with observed outcomes in Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and elsewhere.
    Keywords: Arab Spring, political transitions, repression, civil conflict, oil, divided societies
    JEL: D72 D74
    Date: 2013
  24. By: Saskia C. Hin (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: This papers investigates patterns of research collaboration in the fields of ancient history and demography and explores studies on the benefits of interdisciplinary collaboration in academia
    Keywords: research policy
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2013–12
  25. By: Surajeet Chakravarty (Department of Economics, University of Exeter); Miguel A. Fonseca (Department of Economics, University of Exeter)
    Abstract: We study using laboratory experiments the impact on cooperation of allowing individuals to invest in group-specific, excludable public goods. We find that allowing different social groups to voluntarily contribute to such goods increases total contributions. However, a significant proportion of that contribution goes towards the group-specific club good, rather than the public good, even when the latter has higher financial returns to cooperation. We find significant evidence of in-group biases, which are manifested by positive in-group reciprocity. That is, club goods allow subjects to display their preferences for interaction with their in-group members, as well as in positive in-group reciprocity.
    Keywords: club goods, social identity, experiment
    JEL: C92 D02 D03 H41
    Date: 2013
  26. By: Julie Moschion (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Domenico Tabasso (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: This paper studies the respective influence of intergenerational transmission and the environment in shaping individual trust. Focusing on second generation immigrants in Australia and the United States, we exploit the variation in the home and in the host country to separate the effect of the cultural background from that of the social and economic conditions on individual trust. Our results indicate that trust in the home country contributes to the trust of second generation immigrants in both host countries, but particularly so in the United States. Social and economic conditions in the host country, such as crime rate, economic inequality, race inequality and segregation by country of origin, also affect trust. Evidence for first generation immigrants confirms that the transmission of trust across generations is primarily important in the United States, and, that differences in trust levels between the two host countries increase with acculturation.
    Keywords: Trust, migration, culture
    JEL: J15 O15 Z10
    Date: 2013–02
  27. By: Matthew S. Rutledge; Natalia Orlova; Anthony Webb
    Abstract: In economic downturns prior to the Great Recession, workers over age 50 had escaped relatively unscathed. But the unemployment rate for older workers soared to record highs during the Great Recession. This paper projects how older workers will fare across a broad set of financial outcomes over the remainder of this decade. The model estimates how these outcomes differ between individuals who remained employed and those who were displaced during the recession, controlling for their demographic characteristics. We also seek to determine whether there is any variation in their financial outcomes based on the nature of their layoffs – mass versus individual layoffs – and whether labor market conditions played a role in these outcomes. First, the results show that displaced workers are projected to be significantly worse off: their earnings are 14-19 percent lower over the remainder of this decade, financial assets are 22-30 percent lower, and they are up to 8 percent more likely to experience another layoff. Projections also indicate that older Americans will continue to feel the effects of the Great Recession and that labor force participation, earnings and financial assets all will be lower than they would have been after a milder recession like the one in 2001-2003. Second, although the model allows for differences in the nature of layoffs and in local labor market conditions, there is neither evidence that workers subject to mass layoffs are of higher average quality nor evidence that outcomes are worse in locations hit by more severe recessions.
    Date: 2013–03
  28. By: Max Nathan
    Abstract: High levels of net migration to the UK have contributed to growing cultural diversity, and researchers are turning their attention to the long-term effects of diversity on productivity. Yet little is known about these issues. This paper asks: what are the links between the composition of firms' top teams and business performance? What role do ethnic diversity and co-ethnic networks play? And do cities amplify or dampen these channels? I explore using a rich dataset of over 6,000 English firms. Owners, partners and directors set firms' strategic direction. Top team demography might generate production externalities through diversity (a wider range of ideas/ experiences, helping problem solving) and/or 'sameness' (via specialist knowledge or better access to international markets). These channels may be balanced by internal downsides (lower trust) and external barriers (discrimination), so that overall effects on business performance are unclear. In addition, urban locations (particularly big cities) may amplify any demographics-performance effects. I create a repeat cross-section of firms from the RDA National Business Survey. I construct measures of diversity and sameness across ethnicity and gender 'bases', alongside information on revenues, product and process innovation. I then regress these measures of business performance on top team demographics, plus firm level controls, area, year and detailed industry fixed effects. My results suggest a non-linear link between diversity and business performance, which is net positive for process innovation and net negative for turnover. Further tests on diverse and minority/female-headed firms find positive links for diverse top teams, negative for minority and female-only top teams. This implies that while diversity has internal and external benefits, penalties from being 'too diverse' probably result from external constraints. Further tests for intervening effects of capital cities, metropolitan hierarchies and urban form find some evidence of amplifying and dampening effects - which are generally stronger in London and larger cities.
    Keywords: Cities, innovation, entrepreneurship, cultural diversity, migration, gender
    JEL: J61 L21 M13 O11 O31 R23
    Date: 2013–03
  29. By: Gazeley, Ian (University of Sussex); Newell, Andrew T. (University of Sussex); Bezabih, Mintewab (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: We examine Trevon Logan's 2009 claim to have found low levels of nutrition among British worker's households in the late 19th century. Using the same data, we conclude that Logan's estimates are thirty percent too low. Logan buttressed his estimates by claiming that the income elasticity of calories demand was unusually high among these households, relative to other estimates, reflecting great hunger. We find that the elasticity is high, but not outside the range observed in other data sets. We also warn against the simple assertion that a high elasticity implies hunger.
    Keywords: nutrition, living standards, worker's households, late 19th century, Britain
    JEL: I15 I32 N33
    Date: 2013–03
  30. By: Rania Antonopoulos
    Abstract: Walter Bagehot's putative principles of lending in liquidity crises—to lend freely to solvent banks with good collateral but at penalty rates—have served as a theoretical basis for thinking about the lender of last resort for close to 100 years, while simultaneously providing justification for central bank real-world intervention. If we presume Bagehot's principles to be both sound and adhered to by central bankers, we would expect to find the lending by the Fed during the global financial crisis in line with such policies. Taking Bagehot's principles at face value, this paper aims to examine one of these principles—central bank lending at penalty rates—and to determine whether it did in fact conform to this standard. A comprehensive analysis of these rates has revealed that the Fed did not, in actuality, follow Bagehot's classical doctrine. Consequently, the intervention not only generated moral hazard but also set the stage for another crisis. This working paper is part of the Ford Foundation project "A Research and Policy Dialogue Project on Improving Governance of the Government Safety Net in Financial Crisis" and continues the investigation of the Fed's bailout of the financial system—the most comprehensive study of the raw data to date.
    Keywords: Lender of Last Resort; Global Financial Crisis; Monetary Policy; Fed Lending Rates; Bagehot’s Classical Doctrine; Fed Emergency Credit and Liquidity Facilities
    JEL: J13 J16 J18 O1 O11 O15 O19
    Date: 2013–03

This nep-dem issue is ©2013 by Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.