nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2013‒02‒03
37 papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. How subjective beliefs about HIV infection affect life-cycle fertility : evidence from rural Malawi By Shapira, Gil
  2. Population Ageing and PAYG Pensions in the OLG Model By Cipriani, Giam Pietro
  3. Female Labor Supply: Why is the US Falling Behind? By Blau, Francine D.; Kahn, Lawrence M.
  4. Accounting for age in marital search decisions By Serife Nuray Akin; Matthew Butler; Brennan C. Platt
  5. Labour market uncertainties for the young workforce in France and Germany : Implications for family formation and fertility. By Marie-Thérèse Letablier; Anne Salles
  6. Early Child Care and Child Development: For Whom it Works and Why By Felfe, Christina; Lalive, Rafael
  7. Putting the child-centred investment strategy to the test: Evidence for the EU27 By Wim Van Lancker
  8. Gender equality and economic growth in Brazil : a long-run analysis By Agenor, Pierre-Richard; Canuto, Otaviano
  9. Intrahousehold bargaining and resource allocation in developing countries By Doss, Cheryl
  10. The Long Run Effects of High-School Class Gender Composition By Massimo Anelli; Giovanni Peri
  11. Matching with Contracts: An Efficient Marriage Market? By Chloe Qianzi Zeng
  12. Children, Spousal Love, and Happiness: An Economic Analysis By Grossbard, Shoshana; Mukhopadhyay, Sankar
  13. Return Migration of Foreign Students By Govert Bijwaard; Qi Wang
  14. What Happens When Canadian Aggregate Rates of Employment and Unemployment Change? A Note on the Differences in Response Patterns Across Age and Sex Groups By Frank T. Denton; Byron G. Spencer
  15. Where do people meet their first sexual partner and their first life partner? By Michel Bozon; Wilfried Rault
  16. Understanding the Mechanisms through Which an Influential Early Childhood Program Boosted Adult Outcomes By James J Heckman; Rodrigo Pinto; Peter A. Savelyev
  17. African Polygamy: Past and Present By James Fenske
  18. Commuting Time and Accessibility in a Joint Residential Location, Workplace, and Job Type Choice Model By Ignacio A. Inoa; Nathalie Picard; André De Palma
  19. Motives for Bequests within the Middle Class By John Laitner; Amanda Sonnega
  20. Do Employers Discriminate Less If Vacancies Are Difficult to Fill? Evidence from a Field Experiment By Baert, Stijn; Cockx, Bart; Gheyle, Niels; Vandamme, Cora
  21. Take a chance on me – Can the Swedish premium pension serve as a role model for Germany’s Riester scheme? By Haupt, Marlene; Kluth, Sebastian
  22. Children Malnutrition and Horizontal Inequalities in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Focus on Contrasting Domestic Trajectories By Viridiana Garcia
  23. What Are the Social Benefits of Education? By OECD
  24. The Dynamics of Utility in the Neoclassical OLG Model By Wolfgang Kuhle
  25. The Labor Share and the Size of Government By François Facchini; Mickael Melki; Andrew Pickering
  26. Is a gender gap in net school enrollment a reflection of the gender wage gap in the labor market? Evidence using household data from Vietnam By Tien Manh Vu
  27. Designing an Optimal Public Pension System By Fujii, Takao; Hayashi, Fumiaki; Iritani, Jun; Oguro, Kazumasa
  28. Children Returning Home after Civil War: The Consequences of Forced Displacement For Food Security, Nutrition and Poverty among Burundese Households By Philip Verwimp
  29. Crime and conflicts in Africa: consequences of corruption? By Simplice A, Asongu; Oasis, Kodila-Tedika
  30. Coherent Multidimensional Poverty Measurement. By Gaël Giraud
  31. Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Sex Discrimination By Cardoso, Ana Rute; Guimaraes, Paulo; Portugal, Pedro
  32. Cash transfers and child schooling : evidence from a randomized evaluation of the role of conditionality By Akresh, Richard; de Walque, Damien; Kazianga, Harounan
  33. Air Pollution and Infant Mortality: Evidence from the Expansion of Natural Gas Infrastructure By Resul Cesur; Erdal Tekin; Aydogan Ulker
  34. Les déterminants de la fréquentation scolaire au Mali : Entre caractéristiques socioculturelles et économiques et statut de l'enfant dans le ménage By BOUARÉ Issa; KONE Felix Yagoua; KUEPIE Mathias; SIDIBE Lassine
  35. Does urbanization affect rural poverty ? evidence from Indian districts By Cali, Massimiliano; Menon, Carlo
  36. Fighting African Conflicts and Crimes: Which Governance Tools Matter? By Simplice A , Asongu; Oasis, Kodila-Tedika
  37. Children's health opportunities and project evaluation : Mexico's Oportunidades program By Van de gaer, Dirk; Vandenbossche, Joost; Figueroa, Jose Luis

  1. By: Shapira, Gil
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of subjective beliefs about HIV infection on fertility decisions in a context of high HIV prevalence and simulates the impact of different policy interventions, such as HIV testing programs and prevention of mother-to-child transmission, on fertility and child mortality. It develops a model of women's life-cycle, in which women make sequential fertility decisions. Expectations about the life horizon and child survival depend on women's perceived exposure to HIV infection, which is allowed to differ from the actual exposure. In the model, women form beliefs about their HIV status and about their own and their children's survival in future periods. Women update their beliefs with survival to each additional period as well as when their HIV status is revealed by an HIV test. Model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood with longitudinal data from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project, which contain family rosters, information on HIV testing, and measures of subjective beliefs about own HIV status. The model successfully fits the fertility patterns in the data, as well as the distribution of reported beliefs about own HIV status. The analysis uses the model to assess the effect of HIV on fertility by simulating behavior in an environment without HIV. The results show that the presence of HIV reduces the average number of births a woman has during her life-cycle by 0.15. The paper also finds that HIV testing can reduce the fertility of infected women, leading to a reduction of child mortality and orphan-hood.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Gender and Health,Disease Control&Prevention,Gender and Law,Adolescent Health
    Date: 2013–01–01
  2. By: Cipriani, Giam Pietro (University of Verona)
    Abstract: This paper shows the effects on a pay-as-you-go pension system of the demographic change in the standard overlapping generations model. Firstly, we consider a setting with exogenous fertility and then a model with endogenous fertility. In both cases, population ageing due to increased longevity implies a reduction in pensions payouts.
    Keywords: PAYG pensions, fertility, longevity
    JEL: J13 H55
    Date: 2013–01
  3. By: Blau, Francine D. (Cornell University); Kahn, Lawrence M. (Cornell University)
    Abstract: In 1990, the US had the sixth highest female labor participation rate among 22 OECD countries. By 2010, its rank had fallen to 17th. We find that the expansion of "family-friendly" policies including parental leave and part-time work entitlements in other OECD countries explains 28-29% of the decrease in US women's labor force participation relative to these other countries. However, these policies also appear to encourage part-time work and employment in lower level positions: US women are more likely than women in other countries to have full time jobs and to work as managers or professionals.
    Keywords: labor supply, gender
    JEL: J16 J22
    Date: 2013–01
  4. By: Serife Nuray Akin (Department of Economics, University of Miami); Matthew Butler (Department of Economics, Brigham Young University); Brennan C. Platt (Department of Economics, Brigham Young University)
    Abstract: The average quality of spouse an individual marries varies significantly with age at marriage, peaking in the mid-twenties, then declining through the mid-forties, as does the hazard rate of marriage. Using a non-stationary sequential search model, we identify the search frictions that generate these age-dependent marriage outcomes. We find that the arrival rate of suitors is the dominant friction, responsible for 80% of hazard rate variation and 49% of spouse quality variation. Surprisingly, the distribution of suitor quality is a lower-order concern. Also, individual choice, rather than worsening frictions, is responsible for most of the decline in spouse quality.
    Keywords: Marriage market frictions, spouse quality, reservation quality over the life-cycle, non-stationary search
    JEL: C81 D83 J12
    Date: 2013–01–11
  5. By: Marie-Thérèse Letablier (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne et INED); Anne Salles (Université Paris-Sorbonne et INED)
    Abstract: This contribution to the Gusto research project for the European 7th framework programme (Work Package 3 : individual pathways to Flexibility and Sustainability) examines how employment uncertainty during the transition into the labour force differently impacts family formation in Germany and France. Based on a qualitative survey with young men and women in age of being parents, the paper explores how the individuals manage with uncertainty and economic insecurity to finalize their reproduction projects. The paper therefore contributes to an understanding of the contrasted fertility patterns in the two countries. It highlights variations in the perception of insecurity related in particular to differences in gender conventions and their related incidence on family patterns in the two countries. The paper also highlights the contrasted impact of trust in family policies, especially in their ability to secure individuals transitions.
    Keywords: Family formation, fertility decisions, economic insecurity, labour market uncertainty, precariousness.
    JEL: J01 J13 J16
    Date: 2013–01
  6. By: Felfe, Christina (University of St. Gallen); Lalive, Rafael (University of Lausanne)
    Abstract: Many countries are currently expanding access to child care for young children. But are all children equally likely to benefit from such expansions? We address this question by adopting a marginal treatment effects framework. We study the West German setting where high quality center-based care is severely rationed and use within state differences in child care supply as exogenous variation in child care attendance. Data from the German Socio-Economic Panel provides comprehensive information on child development measures along with detailed information on child care, mother-child interactions, and maternal labor supply. Results indicate strong differences in the effects of child care with respect to observed characteristics (children's age, birth weight and socio-economic background), but less so with respect to unobserved determinants of selection into child care. Underlying mechanisms are a substitution of maternal care with center-based care, an increase in average quality of maternal care, and an increase in maternal earnings.
    Keywords: child care, child development, marginal treatment effects
    JEL: J13 I21 I38
    Date: 2012–12
  7. By: Wim Van Lancker
    Abstract: Under the social investment paradigm, a child-centred investment strategy has been developed. Mainstay of such strategy is the provision of childcare services, which are expected to increase maternal employment rates, further children’s human capital and mitigate social inequalities in early life. In this article, I critically assess the child-centred investment strategy and explore whether childcare services in European countries in their current state of affairs are up to the task of producing the anticipated benefits. The argument I develop is fairly simple: in order to be effective, childcare services should cover all social groups, in particular children from a disadvantaged background. Drawing on recent EU-SILC data I show that in all but one country this condition is not met: childcare is often used at low or moderate levels, and children from low-income families participate to a much lesser extent than children from high-income families. In order to overcome these childcare deficits, countries should pursue a consistent investment strategy which entails increasing childcare supply and increasing employment opportunities for all social groups. This will require huge budgetary efforts for most member states.
    Keywords: child-centred investment strategy, childcare, ECEC, European Union, inequality, social investment
    JEL: I3 J13 J24 I24
    Date: 2013–01
  8. By: Agenor, Pierre-Richard; Canuto, Otaviano
    Abstract: This paper studies the long-run impact of policies aimed at fostering gender equality on economic growth in Brazil. The first part provides a brief review of gender issues in the country. The second part presents a gender-based, three-period OLG model that accounts for women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, human capital accumulation, and home production. Bargaining between spouses depends on relative human capital stocks, and thus indirectly on access to infrastructure. The model is calibrated and various experiments are conducted, including investment in infrastructure, conditional cash transfers, a reduction in gender bias in the market place, and a composite pro-growth, pro-gender reform program. The analysis showed that fostering gender equality, which may partly depend on the externalities that infrastructure creates in terms of women's time allocation and bargaining power, may have a substantial impact on long-run growth in Brazil.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Population Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Gender and Law,Labor Policies
    Date: 2013–01–01
  9. By: Doss, Cheryl
    Abstract: Many key development outcomes depend on women's ability to negotiate favorable intrahousehold allocations of resources. Yet it has been difficult to clearly identify which policies can increase women's bargaining power and result in better outcomes. This paper reviews both the analytical frameworks and the empirical evidence on the importance of women's bargaining power. It argues that there is sufficient evidence from rigorous studies to conclude that women's bargaining power does affect outcomes. But in many specific instances, the quantitative evidence cannot rigorously identify causality. In these cases, a combination of quantitative and qualitative evidence may suggest policy levers. Taken together, there are sufficient data in place to support a greatly expanded focus on intrahousehold outcomes and bargaining power. Additional data at the individual level will allow for further and more detailed research. A growing literature supports the current conventional wisdom -- namely, that the patterns of evidence suggest that women's education, incomes, and assets all are important aspects of women's bargaining power.
    Keywords: Labor Policies,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Anthropology,Gender and Law,Economic Theory&Research
    Date: 2013–01–01
  10. By: Massimo Anelli; Giovanni Peri
    Abstract: The long run earnings and career potential of individuals are strongly affected by their education. Among college educated individuals, the choice of college major is a very important determinant of labor market outcomes. In most countries men and women exhibit significant differences in this choice which is responsible for a large portion of the gender gap in earnings. In this paper we analyze whether the gender composition of peers (classmates) in high school affects the choice of major and hence long run earning potential. We use a newly collected and unique dataset covering 30,000 Italian students graduated from high school between 1985 and 2005. We exploit the fact that students are assigned to classes whose gender composition, within a school over time, varies exogenously. Moreover we are able to control for family, cohort, teacher and school effects in assessing the effect of peer-gender ratio on outcomes. We find that the gender ratio of peers in high school significantly affected the choice of major. A larger share of same-sex peers increases the probability of choosing majors associated to high earning jobs (Economics/Business, Medicine, Engineering). For women we also find that a large percentage of female high school classmates increases their long run performance in college and their earnings.
    JEL: I21 J16
    Date: 2013–01
  11. By: Chloe Qianzi Zeng
    Abstract: This paper studies a marriage market with two-sided information asymmetry in whichthe gains from marriage are stochastic. Contracts specify divisions of ex-post realizedmarital surplus. I first study a game in which one side of the matching market offerscontracts. I show that when expected marital surplus is strictly monotonic in agents’types, no separating equilibrium that achieves matching efficiency exists. I then studya social planner’s problem, finding necessary and sufficient conditions for a truthful directrevelation mechanism to achieve matching efficiency. These conditions become morestringent as the number of agents in the matching market increases.
    Keywords: Matching, two-sided information asymmetry, endogenous sharing rule, marriage market, stochastic marital surplus
    JEL: C78 D82 J12 D13
    Date: 2012–11–26
  12. By: Grossbard, Shoshana (San Diego State University, California); Mukhopadhyay, Sankar (University of Nevada, Reno)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine how children affect happiness and relationships within a family by analyzing two unique questions in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth's 1997 cohort. We find that (a) presence of children is associated with a loss of spousal love; (b) loss of spousal love is associated with loss of overall happiness; but (c) presence of children is not associated with significant loss of overall happiness. If children reduce feelings of being loved by the spouse but do not reduce reported happiness even though spousal love induces happiness, then it must be the case that children contribute to parental happiness by providing other benefits. After ruling out some competing compensation mechanisms we infer that loss of spousal love is compensated with altruistic feelings towards children.
    Keywords: children, happiness, emotions, marriage, religion
    JEL: J13 D10
    Date: 2012–12
  13. By: Govert Bijwaard (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)); Qi Wang (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI))
    Abstract: Using unique administrative micro panel data, this paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of the return of recent foreign students in The Netherlands. The life course experiences of these students in the host, both on the labour market and in marriage formation, impact their decision to leave. Using a ”timing-of-events” model we estimate the impact of these processes on the return intensity. The model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across the migration, the labour market and the marriage formation processes. The large size of the data permits us to stratify the analysis by five groups based on the country of birth. The empirical analyses reveal that employment induces students to stay and unemployment induces them to leave. Forming a family in The Netherlands makes the students more prone to stay. The size of the impact of these life course experiences on return differs by age at entry and gender.
    Keywords: student migration, timing of events method, labour dynamics, marriage.
    JEL: F22 J64 J12 C41
    Date: 2013–01
  14. By: Frank T. Denton; Byron G. Spencer
    Abstract: The paper considers age-sex patterns of fluctuation of employment, unemployment, labour force participation, hours worked per employee, and hours worked per capita. The patterns are extracted (by regression) from annual data for the period 1976-2011 and expressed in the form of group-to-aggregate elasticities. An additive relationship among the elasticities is noted and used to decompose the variation of per capita hours worked into source contributions. On that basis, participation and employee hours are found to be significant contributors generally over the working age range, but especially among young workers. The results suggest a considerable amount of "hidden" unemployment during cyclical downturns.
    Keywords: Cyclical labour force behaviour, age-sex employment and unemployment rates, hidden unemployment
    JEL: J20 J21
    Date: 2012–12
  15. By: Michel Bozon (Ined); Wilfried Rault (Ined)
    Abstract: In France, people no longer find their first life partner as they did in the 1960s. Public dances and the neighbourhood are now much less frequent meeting places, while parties with friends (18%), the place of study 15%), public places (15%) and nightclubs and discotheques (11%) have grown in popularity. Despite the development of the electronic media in the 2000s, the Internet does not appear to play a major role in young people's search for their first life partner. Moreover, the first sexual partner today is generally not the first life partner. The place of study is the most frequent setting for meeting the first sexual partner, more often for men than for women (39% versus 25%). However, more women than men meet their first sexual partner at a party with friends (15% versus 10%). The settings of daily living (school, work, public places and neighbourhood) account for more than 60% of encounters for men, versus less than 50% for women. The higher a person's level of education, the greater the likelihood that he or she will meet the first sexual partner in a place of study (generally at school). For the low educated, meetings in public places and at places that offer dancing are more comm
    Date: 2013
  16. By: James J Heckman (University of Chicago); Rodrigo Pinto (University of Chicago); Peter A. Savelyev (Vanderbilt University)
    Abstract: A growing literature establishes that high quality early childhood interventions targeted toward disadvantaged children have substantial impacts on later life outcomes. Little is known about the mechanisms producing these impacts. This paper uses longitudinal data on cognitive and personality traits from an experimental evaluation of the influential Perry Preschool program to analyze the channels through which the program boosted both male and female participant outcomes. Experimentally induced changes in personality traits explain a sizable portion of adult treatment effects.
    Keywords: cognitive traits, personality traits, externalizing behavior, academic motivation, factor analysis, human capital, human development, early childhood interventions, social experiments, Perry Preschool program, experimentally estimated production functions
    JEL: I2 J2
    Date: 2012–12–12
  17. By: James Fenske
    Abstract: Motivated by a simple model, I use DHS data to test nine hypotheses about the prevalence and decline of African polygamy.  First, greater female involvement in agriculture does not increase polygamy.  Second, past inequality better predicts polygamy today than does current inequality.  Third, the slave trade only predicts polygamy across broad regions.  Fourth, modern female education does not reduce polygamy.  Colonial schooling does.  Fifth, economic growth has eroded polygamy.  Sixth and seventh, rainfall shocks and war increase polygamy, though their effects are small.  Eighth, polygamy varies smoothly over borders, national bans notwithstanding.  Finally, falling child mortaility has reduced polygamy.
    Date: 2012–11–27
  18. By: Ignacio A. Inoa (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise); Nathalie Picard (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise); André De Palma (ENS Cachan - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan - École normale supérieure de Cachan - ENS Cachan)
    Abstract: The effect of an individual-specific measure of accessibility to jobs is analyzed using a three-level nested logit model of residential location, workplace, and job type choice. This measure takes into account the attractiveness of different job types when the workplace choice is anticipated in the residential location decision. The model allows for variation in the preferences for job types across individuals and accounts for individual heterogeneity of preferences at each choice level in the following dimensions: education, age, gender and children. Using data from the Greater Paris Area, estimation results indicate that the individual-specific accessibility measure is an important determinant of the residential location choice and its effect differ along the life cycle. Results also show that the job type attractiveness measure is a more significant predictor of workplace location than the standard measures.
    Keywords: residential location; job location; accessibility; nested logit; Greater Paris
    Date: 2013–01–07
  19. By: John Laitner (University of Michigan); Amanda Sonnega (University of Michigan)
    Abstract: The life-cycle model of household behavior forms the basis for most economic analysis of Social Security, private pensions, and retirement. This project seeks to extend the usefulness of the life-cycle model by considering the role of middle-class inheritances and bequests. We use HRS data. Prior work by the authors identifies key information in the HRS on the sources of private intergenerational transfers, and it shows that the frequency of couples’ inheritances from both spouses’ family lines is higher than random behavior would imply. Using additional HRS data on the ratio of parent-to-child lifetime incomes, we analyze the motives behind HRS bequests. We find support for an unintentional transfer model in which bequests arise from residual, unspent parent life-cycle resources. And, we show that our model can account for the frequency of dual inheritances that earlier work revealed.
    Date: 2012–11
  20. By: Baert, Stijn (Ghent University); Cockx, Bart (Ghent University); Gheyle, Niels (Ghent University); Vandamme, Cora (Ghent University)
    Abstract: We empirically test the relationship between hiring discrimination and labour market tightness at the level of the occupation. To this end, we conduct a correspondence test in the youth labour market. In line with theoretical expectations, we find that, compared to natives, candidates with a foreign sounding name are equally often invited to a job interview if they apply for occupations for which vacancies are difficult to fill, but they have to send twice as many applications for occupations for which labour market tightness is low. Our findings are robust against various sensitivity checks.
    Keywords: hiring discrimination, ethnic discrimination, labour market tightness, field experiments
    JEL: C93 J15 J21 J24 J42 J71
    Date: 2013–01
  21. By: Haupt, Marlene; Kluth, Sebastian (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))
    Abstract: In the course of the ongoing debate regarding the critique of the German Riester pension the Swedish premium pension has often been referred to as a role model regarding potential amendments and reforms. The Swedish pension reform of 1998 has led to a reorganization towards a stratified scheme, consisting of a pay-as-you-go and a fully funded element. The mandatory implementation of the Swedish premium pension has proved to be the major difference in comparison to the voluntary German Riester pension. In addition, numerous differences between the two systems can be outlined, of which most are due to the differing methods of implementation in the country’s old age provision system. This paper draws a comparison between the two systems with a special focus on the cost structure and evaluates the possibilities and limitations that arise from a complete adaptation of the Swedish premium pension (German premium pension) as well as a partial modification of the existing Riester scheme (Swedish-Riester). It becomes evident that costs are significantly lower in the Swedish system thanks to a rebate system and the centralization of administrative tasks within the Swedish Pensions Agency. However, despite systematic differences between the two schemes, the German Riester pension can particularly benefit from the Swedish premium pension with regard to transparent, coherent and consistent product information.
    JEL: D18 G23 H55
    Date: 2013–01–20
  22. By: Viridiana Garcia (United Nations Development Programme)
    Abstract: Over the past two decades Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced accelerated economic growth. This positive trend represents a huge opportunity to improve the living standards of millions of Africans and foster inclusive and sustainable development. At the regional level however, such improvements do not seem to have translated into higher human development. Child malnutrition indicators in particular have registered some relatively limited advances. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a more accurate and nuanced view on the progress made with regards to child malnutrition and inequalities across Sub-Saharan Africa.
    Keywords: Child Malnutrition, Sub-Saharan Africa, Inequality, Inclusive Growth, Economic development
    JEL: I14
    Date: 2012–03
  23. By: OECD
    Abstract: <UL> <LI>On average across 15 OECD countries, a 30-year-old male tertiary graduate can expect to live another 51 years, while a 30 year-old man who has not completed upper secondary education can expect to live an additional 43 years. A similar comparison between women in the two educational groups reveals less of a difference than that among men.</li> <li>In 27 OECD countries, on average, 80% of young tertiary graduates say they vote, while only 54% of young adults who have not completed upper secondary education do so. The difference in voting rates by level of education is much smaller among older age groups.</li> <li>Education can bring significant benefits to society, not only through higher employment opportunities and income but also via enhanced skills, improved social status and access to networks. By fully recognising the power of education, policy makers could better address diverse societal challenges.</LI></UL>
    Date: 2013–01
  24. By: Wolfgang Kuhle (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn)
    Abstract: This paper develops a method to study how life-cycle utility of a sequence of cohorts converges towards its steady state level in the neoclassical two-generations-overlapping model. This method allows to characterize utility changes associated with variations in exogenous policy parameters along the entire transition path between two steady states. At the same time it is not more complicated than a pure steady state analysis. Moreover, it can be applied to economies for which an explicit solution of the transition path is not available.
    Date: 2012–11
  25. By: François Facchini; Mickael Melki; Andrew Pickering
    Abstract: The size of government depends positively on the labor share given price-inelastic demand for public services. OECD data support this hypothesis and also show a stronger dependence under left-wing ideology because larger government employs a larger workforce. A permanent one standard deviation increase in the labor share is found on average to increase government size by about 9% of GDP, with increases of 6% in right-wing countries and 12% in left-wing countries. Contrary to Baumol's cost-disease the relationship is estimated to be independent of income. Recent reductions in the labor-share have substantially slowed the growth of government in many countries.
    Keywords: Size of government, labor share, Baumol's cost disease
    JEL: H10 H50 O41
    Date: 2013–01
  26. By: Tien Manh Vu (Ph.D Candidate, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)
    Abstract: The paper estimates both the gender gap in wage and net schooling enrollment from Vietnam household data. The results imply a reflection of gender wage gap in the labor market in hazard of school withdrawals. Generally, males have higher incentive to terminate their schooling to join the labor force. Males would have 43.8 percent higher in participating the labor market and gain 18.4 percent of wage per hour higher than females. Also, we observe 16?44.4 percent lower in probability for males to enroll in school, especially, the school withdrawal rate accelerates at higher speed after the age of primary school. Meanwhile, females would have an incentive to complete junior, senior high school and 3?year college thanks to higher speed gain in wage. Besides, family having a combination of a household head working for a state?owned firm and his spouse working as self?employed would best facilitate their co?residing children and grandchildren for more years of schooling. Finally, the current education subsidy and tuition fee reduction policy do minimal to reduce the hazard of school dropouts among beneficiaries.
    Keywords: School dropouts, Returns to schooling, Wage, Gender gap, Vietnam
    JEL: I24 I25 J31
    Date: 2013–01
  27. By: Fujii, Takao; Hayashi, Fumiaki; Iritani, Jun; Oguro, Kazumasa
    Abstract: This paper uses a two-period overlapping generations model in order to provide a theoretical design for an optimal public pension system based on a partial equilibrium analysis. Household preferences only depend on two periods consumption and leisure and is homogeneous of degree m with respect to consumption in the working and retired periods. We present characteristic features of an optimal public pension system in this paper. First, differences in the population growth rate do not affect the relative level of the optimal net lifetime burden rate of each generation. Second, if m≠0 or m<1, the optimal public pension system can be expressed explicitly. Third, the difference between the market time-preference rate and social time-preference rate provides a crucial insight into the optimal burden rate of each generation.
    Keywords: Overlapping generations model, public pension, optimal burden rate
    JEL: D30 D60 D90 H21 H60
    Date: 2013–01
  28. By: Philip Verwimp (Ecares and Centre Emile Bernheim Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management,Université Libre de Bruxelles)
    Abstract: Civil wars often force people to leave their homes. Displaced populations run higher risk in terms of disease, hunger and death, something that is well-documented. They leave their land, cattle and other assets behind for an uncertain existence in a refugee camp or depend on relatives or friends. But what happens when they return back home?
    Keywords: Forced Displacement, Food Security, Nutrition, Poverty, Burundi
    JEL: D13
    Date: 2012–03
  29. By: Simplice A, Asongu; Oasis, Kodila-Tedika
    Abstract: With earthshaking and jaw-breaking levels of corruption in the African continent, the question on the extent to which corruption influences crime still remains unanswered. This paper assesses the effect of corruption (corruption-control) in 38 African countries using updated data. We find that, crime is highly positively (negatively) correlated with corruption (corruption-control). The potential mitigation effect (by corruption-control) is higher than the corresponding positive effect of corruption, implying, corruption-control offsets crime emanating beyond the corruption mechanism (inter alia, other poor governance mechanisms). The relationship is statistically strong when controlling for the number of police officers, age dependency, per capital economic prosperity, level of education, government effectiveness and population density. Given that crime is proxied by the level of organized internal conflict, the findings also sustain the substantial role of corruption in the birth and propagation of conflicts within and across Africa. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Security; Corruption; Crime; Conflicts; Africa
    JEL: O55 F52 O17 K42 P16
    Date: 2013–01–15
  30. By: Gaël Giraud (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents a family of multidimensional poverty indices that measure poverty as a function of the extent and the intensity of poverty. I provide a unique axiomatics from which both extent and intensity of poverty can be derived, as well as the poor be endogenously identified. This axiomatics gives rise to a family of multidimensional indices whose extremal points are the geometric mean and the Maximin solution. I show that, in addition to all the standard features studied in the literature, these indices are continuous (a must for cardinal poverty measures) and ordinal, in the sense that they do not depend upon the units in which dimensions of achievements are computed. Moreover, they verify the decreasing rate marginal substitution property : the higher one's deprovation (or the extent of poverty) in one dimension, the smaller the increase of achievement in that dimension that suffices to compensate for a decrease of achievement in another dimension.
    Keywords: Multidimensional poverty, geometric mean, maximin solution, utilitarian solution, endogenous identification, coherence, continuity, decreasing marginal rate of substitution, cardinal date, ordinality, relative weights.
    JEL: I3 I32 D31 D63 O1
    Date: 2012–12
  31. By: Cardoso, Ana Rute (IAE Barcelona (CSIC)); Guimaraes, Paulo (University of Porto); Portugal, Pedro (Banco de Portugal)
    Abstract: Earlier literature on the gender pay gap has taught us that occupations matter and so do firms. However, the role of the firm has received little scrutiny; occupations have most often been coded in a rather aggregate way, lumping together different jobs; and the use of samples of workers prevents any reliable determination of either the extent of segregation or the relative importance of access to firms versus occupations. Our contribution is twofold. We provide a clear measure of the impact of the allocation of workers to firms and to job titles shaping the gender pay gap. We also provide a methodological contribution that combines the estimation of sets of high-dimensional fixed effects and Gelbach's (2009) unambiguous decomposition of the conditional gap. We find that one fifth of the gender pay gap results from segregation of workers across firms and one fifth from job segregation. We also show that the widely documented glass ceiling effect operates mainly through worker allocation to firms rather than occupations.
    Keywords: gender wage gap, high-dimensional fixed effects, segregation
    JEL: J31 J16 J24 J71
    Date: 2012–12
  32. By: Akresh, Richard; de Walque, Damien; Kazianga, Harounan
    Abstract: The authors conduct a randomized experiment in rural Burkina Faso to estimate the impact of alternative cash transfer delivery mechanisms on education. The two-year pilot program randomly distributed cash transfers that were either conditional or unconditional. Families under the conditional schemes were required to have their children ages 7-15 enrolled in school and attending classes regularly. There were no such requirements under the unconditional programs. The results indicate that unconditional and conditional cash transfer programs have a similar impact increasing the enrollment of children who are traditionally favored by parents for school participation, including boys, older children, and higher ability children. However, the conditional transfers are significantly more effective than the unconditional transfers in improving the enrollment of"marginal children"who are initially less likely to go to school, such as girls, younger children, and lower ability children. Thus, conditionality plays a critical role in benefiting children who are less likely to receive investments from their parents.
    Keywords: Youth and Governance,Primary Education,Street Children,Educational Sciences,Education For All
    Date: 2013–01–01
  33. By: Resul Cesur; Erdal Tekin; Aydogan Ulker
    Abstract: One of the consequences of rapid economic growth and industrialization in the developing world has been deterioration in environmental conditions and air quality. While air pollution is a serious threat to health in most developing countries, environmental regulations are rare and the determination to address the problem is weak due to ongoing pressures to sustain robust economic growth. Under these constraints, natural gas, as a clean, abundant, and highly-efficient source of energy, has emerged as an increasingly attractive source of fuel, which could address some of the environmental and health challenges faced by these countries without undermining their economies. In this paper, we examine the impact of air pollution on infant mortality in Turkey using variation across provinces and over time in the adoption of natural gas as a cleaner fuel. Our results indicate that the expansion of natural gas infrastructure has caused a significant decrease in the rate of infant mortality in Turkey. In particular, a one-percentage point increase in the rate of subscriptions to natural gas services would cause the infant mortality rate to decline by 4 percent, which could result in 348 infant lives saved in 2011 alone. These results are robust to a large number of specifications. Finally, we use supplemental data on total particulate matter and sulfur dioxide to produce direct estimates of the effects of these pollutants on infant mortality using natural gas expansion as an instrument. Our elasticity estimates from the instrumental variable analysis are 1.25 for particulate matter and 0.63 for sulfur dioxide.
    JEL: I0 I12 I15 I18 O10 O13 Q42 Q48 Q53
    Date: 2013–01
  34. By: BOUARÉ Issa; KONE Felix Yagoua; KUEPIE Mathias; SIDIBE Lassine
    Abstract: La question fondamentale à laquelle cette étude se propose de répondre est de savoir pourquoi certains enfants de 7-18 ans fréquentent l?école au Mali et d?autres pas. Pour y répondre, nous commençons par positionner la fréquentation scolaire dans un cadre théorique où les facteurs culturels, économiques, familiaux et d?offre éducative se conjuguent pour déterminer les chances de fréquentation des jeunes. Il ressort des analyses, à partir des données de l?enquête malienne auprès des ménages de 2003, que les facteurs culturels sont de loin plus déterminant pour la fréquentation scolaire que le facteur économique. Un autre résultat de première importance est que la discrimination vis-à-vis des filles confiées est si importante qu?elle explique, à elle seule, quasiment toutes les inégalités entre filles et garçons en matière d?éducation.
    Keywords: Mali; fréquentation scolaire; inégalités scolaires; enfants confiés
    JEL: I30 J13 J22
    Date: 2012–12
  35. By: Cali, Massimiliano; Menon, Carlo
    Abstract: Although a high rate of urbanization and a high incidence of rural poverty are two distinct features of many developing countries, there is little knowledge of the effects of the former on the latter. Using a large sample of Indian districts from the 1983-1999 period, the authors find that urbanization has a substantial and systematic poverty-reducing effect in the surrounding rural areas. The results obtained through an instrumental variable estimation suggest that this effect is causal in nature and is largely attributable to the positive spillovers of urbanization on the rural economy rather than to the movement of the rural poor to urban areas. This rural poverty-reducing effect of urbanization is primarily explained by increased demand for local agricultural products and, to a lesser extent, by urban-rural remittances, the rural land/population ratio, and rural nonfarm employment.
    Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Regional Economic Development,Achieving Shared Growth
    Date: 2013–01–01
  36. By: Simplice A , Asongu; Oasis, Kodila-Tedika
    Abstract: Crimes and conflicts are seriously undermining African development. This article assesses the best governance tools in the fight against the scourges. The following findings are established. (1) Democracy, autocracy and voice & accountability have no significant negative correlations with crime. (2) The increasing relevance of government quality in the fight is as follows: regulation quality, government effectiveness, political stability, rule of law and corruption-control. (3) Corruption-control is the most effective mechanism in fighting crimes (conflicts). The findings are significantly strong when controlling for age dependency, number of police (and security) officers, per capita economic prosperity, educational level and population density. Justifications for the edge of corruption-control (as the most effective governance tool) and policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Security; Governance; Conflicts; Crime; Africa
    JEL: O55 F52 O17 K42 P16
    Date: 2013–01–20
  37. By: Van de gaer, Dirk; Vandenbossche, Joost; Figueroa, Jose Luis
    Abstract: This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate social projects from the perspective of children's opportunities on the basis of the effects of these projects on the distribution of outcomes. The evaluation is conditioned on characteristics for which individuals are not responsible; in this case, parental education level and indigenous background. The methodology is applied to evaluate the effects on children's health opportunities of Mexico's Oportunidades program, one of the largest conditional cash transfer programs for poor households in the world. The evidence from this program shows that gains in health opportunities for children from indigenous backgrounds are substantial and are situated in crucial parts of the distribution, whereas gains for children from nonindigenous backgrounds are more limited.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Disease Control&Prevention,Gender and Law,Primary Education,Street Children
    Date: 2013–01–01

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