nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2013‒01‒12
nineteen papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. The Effect of Education on Fertility: Evidence from a Compulsory Schooling Reform By Cygan-Rehm, Kamila; Mäder, Miriam
  2. The effects of early childhood intervention on child development and early skill formation. Evidence from a randomized experiment. By Sandner, Malte
  3. Son Preference, Sex Selection and Economic Development: The Case of South Korea By Lena Edlund; Chulhee Lee
  4. The international development strategy beyond 2015: taking demographic dynamics into account By Ana Cortez
  5. What makes Single Mothers expand or reduce employment? By Hartmann, Bastian; Hancioglu, Mine
  6. Male vs. female business owners: Are there differences in investment behavior? By Pelger, Ines
  7. Quantifying the role of alternative pension reforms on the Austrian economy By Sánchez-Romero, Miguel; Sambt, Jože; Prskawetz, Alexia
  8. Political reservations and women's entrepreneurship in India By Ghani, Ejaz; Kerr, William R.; O'Connell, Stephen D.
  9. Gender Discrimination in Hiring: Evidence from 19,130 Resumes in China By Zhou, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jie; Song, Xuetao
  10. The Role of Female Agency in Politics: A Global Study, 1850-2000 By Selin Dilli
  11. The public reallocation of resources across age: A comparison of Austria and Sweden By Hammer, Bernhard; Prskawetz, Alexia
  12. Optimal choice of health and retirement in a life-cycle model By Kuhn, Michael; Wrzaczek, Stefan; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav
  13. Picking Winners? The Effect of Birth Order and Migration on Parental Human Capital Investments in Pre-Modern England By Marc Klemp; Chris Minns; Patrick Wallis; Jacob Weisdorf
  14. Regulation, Imperfect Competition, and the U.S. Abortion Market By Andrew Beauchamp
  15. Remittances and Gender-Speci fic Employment Patterns in Peru - a longitudinal Analysis By Göbel, Kristin
  16. The Developmental Approach to Child and Adult Health By Gabriella Conti; James J. Heckman
  17. The effect of involuntary unemployment on the mental health of spouses By Marcus, Jan
  18. Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge based economies By Kuhn, Michael; Prettner, Klaus
  19. What is the impact of educational systems on social mobility across Europe? A comparative approach By Pedro Abrantes; Manuel Abrantes

  1. By: Cygan-Rehm, Kamila; Mäder, Miriam
    Abstract: This study analyzes the effect of education on the number of children, childlessness, and the timing of the first birth. We use exogenous variation from a mandatory reform to compulsory schooling in West Germany to deal with the endogeneity of schooling. In contrast to studies for other developed countries, we find a significant negative effect of education on completed fertility. We attribute this finding to the particularly high opportunity costs of child-rearing in Germany. --
    JEL: I21 J13 J24
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Sandner, Malte
    Abstract: This paper presents results from a randomized evaluation of a home visiting program for disadvantaged first time mothers and their families implemented in three German federal states. At the end of the first year of the program, children in home visited families perform significantly better than those in the control families by 0.18 standard deviations in the Mental Developmental Index. Examination of gender differences revealed that home visited girls scored 0.30 standard deviations higher than girls in the control families, whereas boys scored similar in both groups. Results indicate no differences in the scores of the Psychomotor Developmental Index and the birth outcomes, despite 0.28 standard deviations higher birth weight for boys in the home visited families compared to boys in the control families. We find evidence for skill self productivity but in different magnitude for boys and girls. Furthermore, we analyze possible monetary returns of the program. --
    JEL: J13 J12 I21
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Lena Edlund; Chulhee Lee
    Abstract: Sex ratios at birth in South Korea reached 116.5 boys per 100 girls in 1990, but have since declined. In 2007, sex ratios were almost normal, a development heralded as a sign that son preference and sex choice have vanished. However, normal sex ratios imply neither. We show that over the last 60 years, the relationship between sex ratios and parental status changed from negative to positive. This pattern, we argue, is consistent with a model where parents prefer sons and sex select – ultrasound and economic development accounting for the change in who chooses sons.
    JEL: J11 J16 O15
    Date: 2013–01
  4. By: Ana Cortez
    Abstract: Demographic dynamics have strong repercussions for development and need to be addressed in the definition of the global development strategy for post 2015. Despite divergent trends across countries, international migration offers no definitive solution. A comprehensive approach is needed. Countries with declining and ageing workforces need to sustain or raise productivity. Countries with growing labour forces need to embark in growth patterns that are labour intensive, offer possibilities for dynamic structural change and productivity increases. Both cases require investments in education, skill formation and upgrading. The impact of population ageing on economic variables is nuanced but should not be ignored.
    Keywords: population, ageing, pension systems, poverty, labour force, productivity, dependent populations, migration, fertility
    JEL: I3 J11 J21 J24
    Date: 2012–12
  5. By: Hartmann, Bastian; Hancioglu, Mine
    Abstract: To explore single mothers labor market participation we analyze specific circumstances and dynamics in their life courses. We focus on the question which individual and institutional factors determine both professional advancement and professional descent. Due to dynamics in women s life course identifying and analyzing restrictions and interruptions of employment requires a longitudinal research design. The German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2009) provides all necessary information identifying episodes of single motherhood and employment during life courses. Since family statuses of single mothers are partially endogenous and can end in multiple ways, we use semi-parametric survival models. Competing risks estimations offer a detailed view by analyzing single mothers transition from non-employment to full-time or part-time work and vice versa simultaneously. Estimates show that occupational careers of single mothers are influenced by both individual factors and institutional circumstances. Whereas specific problems occur shortly after becoming a single mother, these problems seem to be dealt with over time. Enhancing labor market participation or maintaining full-time employment as a single mother can be achieved when certain challenges are met such as appointed and reliable working hours. Single mothers that do not have to rely on public childcare arrangements, but are capable of finding individual solutions are more likely to balance work and family life. Among institutional determinants welfare benefits have a negative effect on the market labor participation of women in low-paid jobs. --
    JEL: C23 C14 J22
    Date: 2012
  6. By: Pelger, Ines
    Abstract: This paper analyzes gender differences in the investment activity of German small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). The empirical analysis is carried out on a sample of firms drawn from the KfW Mittelstandspanel, a representative survey of German SMEs for the period from 2003 to 2009. We find evidence that female-owned firms are less likely to invest and if they invest, then their average investment rate is lower. These differences cannot entirely be explained by firm or owner characteristics. Furthermore, women s investment is less sensitive to cash flow, which indicates that it is unlikely that their lower investment is driven by difficulties in acquiring external finance. An analysis of stated investment goals reveals that women have different preferences and attitudes towards investment. They indicate to a lesser extent aspiring and growth-orientated investment goals like sales increase, innovation/R&D or implementation of new products. --
    JEL: J16 L26 G11
    Date: 2012
  7. By: Sánchez-Romero, Miguel; Sambt, Jože; Prskawetz, Alexia
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of recent pension reforms for the development of the social security system and economic growth in Austria. We use a computable general equilibrium model that is built up of overlapping generations that differ by their household structure, longevity, educational attainment, and capital accumulation. Each household optimally decides over its consumption paths, work effort, and retirement age according to the life-cycle theory of labor, while they face survival risk. We find that the pension reforms implemented from 2000 to 2004, although in the correct direction, are not sufficient to solve the labor market distortion caused by the Austrian PAYG pension system. Using alternative policy options, our simulations indicate that a change to a notional defined contribution system and an increase in the educational distribution of the work force would increase the incentive for later retirement ages and thereby increase labor supply and economic growth. --
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Ghani, Ejaz; Kerr, William R.; O'Connell, Stephen D.
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the link between the timing of state-level implementations of political reservations for women in India with the role of women in India's manufacturing sector. It does not find evidence that overall employment of women in manufacturing increased after the reforms. However, the analysis finds significant evidence that more women-owned establishments were created in the unorganized/informal sector. These establishments were concentrated in industries where women entrepreneurs have been traditionally active and the entry was mainly found among household-based establishments. This heightened entrepreneurship does not appear linked to changes in reporting, better access to government contracts and business, or improved financing environments. One interpretation of these results is that the implementation of the political reservations inspired more women to open establishments, and they did so at a small establishment scale in industries where they had experience and/or the support networks of other women.
    Keywords: Access to Finance,Water and Industry,Gender and Development,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Gender and Law
    Date: 2013–01–01
  9. By: Zhou, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jie; Song, Xuetao
    Abstract: We study gender discrimination in hiring markets by sending 19,130 fictitious matched resumes in response to professional employment advertisements posted on major Internet employment boards in China for positions such as engineers, accountants, secretaries, and marketing professionals in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Chengdu. Our results show that, in general, state-owned firms tend to prefer male applicants. Foreign and private firms tend to prefer female applicants. On one hand, this evidence supports the hypothesis that economic reform and the market economy may mitigate gender discrimination. On the other hand, this evidence is consistent with statistics that describe discrimination based on gender segregation and information asymmetry that originated with higher ratios of female workers in foreign and private firms. With respect to regional income disparity, we find that the differences in gender discrimination between first- and second-tier cities are not significant. This result indicates that economic reform exerts limited mitigation effect on discrimination. We also find no evidence of taste discrimination based on traditional son preference in China.
    Keywords: Discrimination; Audit Study; Gender; Employment
    JEL: J71 O12
    Date: 2013–01–03
  10. By: Selin Dilli (Universiteit Utrecht)
    Abstract: Over the last 200 years, an upward trend in democracy has been observed both cross-nationally and within nations. Previous studies attributed a major role to the developmental, historical, and more recently diffusional characteristics in explaining this democratization process. Although these predictors are robust predictors of democracy, they neglect the role of gender inequalities in democratic outcomes. In its attempt to overcome this shortcoming, this study introduces the concept of “female agency” to study the impact of gender inequalities on the democratization process. The results of both panel data and cross sectional data analysis show that women’s unequal position, both in the private and in the public sphere, are meaningful sources of explanation for within and cross national differences in democracy. This implies that future studies in democratization should include a gendered and capability perspective to have a full understanding of the underlying mechanisms.
    Keywords: female agency, women's empowerment, democracy, political outcomes
    Date: 2013–01
  11. By: Hammer, Bernhard; Prskawetz, Alexia
    Abstract: There is a strong interdependency between public transfers and the shape of the economic life-cycle. Austria and Sweden are very similar economies in terms of production, income and the size of the public sector. There are however remarkable differences in the design of public transfers, their distribution over age-groups and consequently in the shape of the average economic life-cycle: One of the most remarkable differences is the earlier labour force exit age in Austria. The period of active labour force participation is consequently more compressed in Austria, leading to higher contributions to the public transfer system for the age-groups 20-45 and to a higher share of public transfers directed to the elderly. Using economic dependency ratios we show that the sustainability of the public transfer system depends less on its size than on its design: The Swedish system collects the contributions from a wider range of age-groups, transfers a smaller share to the elderly and provides more support to younger generations, supporting them to invest in own children. These characteristics have a positive effect on the sustainability of the Swedish system: Although in Sweden there is a larger share of the population in the age-group 60+, the total economic dependency of the elderly is lower. --
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Kuhn, Michael; Wrzaczek, Stefan; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav
    Abstract: We examine within a life-cycle set-up the simultaneous choice of health care and retirement (together with consumption), when health care contributes to both a reduction in mortality and in morbidity. Health tends to impact on retirement via morbidity, determining the disutility of work, and through longevity, determining the need to accumulate retirement wealth. In contrast, the age of retirement drives health through changes in the value of survival and the value of morbidity reductions. We apply our model to analyse the effects of moral hazard in the annuity market: While moral hazard always induces excessive health investments and an excessive duration of working life it also triggers an excessive level of consumption if the impact of health on the disutility of work is sufficiently large. We examine a transfer scheme and mandatory retirement as policies to curtail moral hazard. Numerical analysis illustrates the working of our model. --
    Keywords: annuities,demand for health,moral hazard,life-cycle-model,optimal control,retirement,value of life
    JEL: D91 I12 J26
    Date: 2012
  13. By: Marc Klemp; Chris Minns; Patrick Wallis; Jacob Weisdorf (University of Copenhagen, LSE, and University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: This paper uses linked apprenticeship-family reconstitution records to explore the influence of family structure on human capital formation in preindustrial England. We observe a small but significant relationship between birth order, resources and human capital investments. Among the gentry, eldest sons were almost never apprenticed. Outside the gentry, a large number of apprentices were eldest sons, even from farming families. This Implies a relatively large place for a child’s aptitude and interest in shaping their career compared to custom or inheritance practices, making the “middling sorts” behave much more as families do in presentday labour studies than the contemporary elites. We also find a surprisingly high rate of return migration, questioning the emphasis on neo-locality and suggesting that parents could anticipate benefiting directly from positive externalities arising from the training provided to children. This interpretation also fits well with our finding that if parents had died before indenture, apprentices were significantly less likely to return home.
    Keywords: Apprenticeship, Family Structure, Human Capital, Preindustrial England, Primogeniture
    Date: 2013–01
  14. By: Andrew Beauchamp (Boston College)
    Abstract: The market for abortion in the U.S. has become increasingly concentrated in recent years and many states have tightened abortion regulations aimed at providers. Using unique data on abortion providers I estimate a dynamic model of entry, exit and service provision which captures the effect of regulation on provider behavior. High fixed costs explain the growth of large clinics and estimates show regulation increased entry costs for small providers. A simulation removing all regulations increases entry by smaller providers into incumbent-markets: competition increases as does the number of abortions. Targeted entry subsidies, however, increase access while only slightly increase abortion.
    Keywords: abortion, regulation
    JEL: J13 L11
    Date: 2012–08–17
  15. By: Göbel, Kristin
    Abstract: This study examines the role of migrant's remittances on labor supply in remittance receiving households. A simple labor choice model is developed which is extended to include self-employment. Unlike earlier studies, fixed effects estimations as well as an instrumental approach are applied. Estimates are provided for both participation and hours. Strong evidence is provided that remittances increase self-employment at the extensive margin for women. Overall, no robust effect of reduced labor supply in response to remittances is found. --
    JEL: O15 J22 F24
    Date: 2012
  16. By: Gabriella Conti; James J. Heckman
    Abstract: Pediatricians should consider the costs and benefits of preventing rather than treating childhood diseases. We present an integrated developmental approach to child and adult health that considers the costs and benefits of interventions over the life cycle. We suggest policies to promote child health which are currently outside the boundaries of conventional pediatrics. We discuss current challenges to the field and suggest avenues for future research.
    JEL: I12 I18
    Date: 2012–12
  17. By: Marcus, Jan
    Abstract: This paper is the first to estimate the effect of one partner's entry into unemployment on the mental health of both spouses in Germany. In order to give the estimates a causal interpretation, this study focuses on an exogenous entry into unemployment (plant closure) and applies a regression-adjusted semiparametric difference-in-difference matching strategy, which is robust against selection on observables and time-invariant unobservables. About one year after the plant closure, unemployment decreased mental health by 25% of a standard deviation for the unemployed individuals themselves and by 23% of a standard deviation for their spouses. The results are robust over various matching specifications and different choices of the conditioning variables. Furthermore, this paper shows that mental health does not follow a different trend for treated and matched controls before the plant closure, adding additional credibility to the identification assumption. --
    JEL: I12 J65 C21
    Date: 2012
  18. By: Kuhn, Michael; Prettner, Klaus
    Abstract: We study the effects of a labor-intensive health care sector within an R&D-driven growth model with overlapping generations. Health care increases longevity and labor participation/productivity. We examine under which conditions expanding health care enhances growth and welfare. Even if the provision of health care diverts labor from productive activities, it may still fuel R&D and economic growth if the additional wealth that comes with expanding longevity translates into a more capital/machine- intensive final goods production and, thereby, raises the return to developing new machines. We establish mild conditions under which an expansion of health care beyond the growth-maximizing level is Pareto-improving. --
    Keywords: endogenous growth,mortality,(Blanchard) overlapping generations,health care,research and development,sectoral composition
    JEL: I15 I18 O11 O41 O43
    Date: 2012
  19. By: Pedro Abrantes; Manuel Abrantes
    Abstract: Education is reasonably expected to enhance intergenerational social mobility. However, the extent to which educational systems foster or otherwise constrain social mobility remains controversial. In this paper, data from the European Social Survey covering 22 countries is analysed in order to assess social mobility in the second half of the 20th Century. Variation across five cohesive regional clusters is examined in detail. Results confirm increasing rates of social mobility in Europe and their close relation to massive structural shifts. The erosion of the education-occupation linkage presents a current threat to this trend. Considering formal credentials only, the most equalitarian educational systems are to be found in the United Kingdom and Ireland, but their ability to allocate individuals in the occupational structure is lower than in the other regions. Scandinavian systems show higher chances of social mobility through education, while Mediterranean systems present lower fluidity rates in both the background-education link (like Eastern European countries) and the education-occupation link (like the UK & Ireland). Gender and migration are identified as key factors to explain these differences.
    Keywords: education, educational systems, gender, migration, social mobility
    JEL: I24 J21 J70 Y10 Z13
    Date: 2012–03

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