nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2012‒12‒15
34 papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Population Dynamics and Economic Growth: Should We Adopt Different Frameworks for Poor and Rich Countries? By Elise S. Brezis
  2. Getting back into the Labor Market: The Effects of Start-Up Subsidies for Unemployed Females By Marco Caliendo; Steffen Künn
  3. Non-Monotonicity of Fertility in Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth By Spyridon Boikos; Alberto Bucci; Thanasis Stengos
  4. Putting Teenagers on the Pill: The Consequences of Subsidized Contraception By Grönqvist., Hans
  5. Women’s employment and marital stability: the role of the context By Marta Styrc; Anna Matysiak
  6. Labour Supply Responses to Paid Parental Leave By Karimi, Arizo; Lindahl, Erica; Skogman Thoursie, Peter
  7. Gender-speci…c Differences in Labor Market Adjustment Patterns: Evidence from the United States By Dennis, Wesselbaum
  8. Effects of siblings and birth order on income redistribution preferences: Evidence based on Japanese General Social Survey By Eiji Yamamura
  9. Fertility Decline in the southeastern Austrian Crown land. Was there a Hajnal line or a transitional zone? By Peter Teibenbacher
  10. Are women more economically active in Germany than France? By Anne Salles
  11. Do Women Have a Less Entrepreneurial Personality? By Bengtsson, Ola; Sanandaji, Tino; Johannesson, Magnus
  12. Inequalities in Child Mortality in India: A District-Level Analysis By Prabir C. Bhattacharya; Cornilius Chikwama
  13. An exploration of family-based pathways through which parents’ financial stress is associated with problem behaviour of adolescents By Koen Ponnet; Edwin Wouters; Tim Goedemé; Dimitri Mortelmans
  14. Understanding the Mechanisms through Which an Influential Early Childhood Program Boosted Adult Outcomes By James J. Heckman; Rodrigo Pinto; Peter A. Savelyev
  15. Is innovative firm behavior correlated with age and gender composition of the workforce? Evidence from a new type of data for German enterprises By Pfeifer, Christian; Wagner, Joachim
  16. Policy reform toward gender equality in Ethiopia: Little by little the egg begins to walk By Kumar, Neha; Quisumbing, Agnes R.
  17. The Economic Consequences of Excess Men: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Taiwan: By Chang, Simon; Zhang, Xiaobo
  18. Impact of Health Aid on Infant Mortality Rate By Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek
  19. Costly posturing: relative status, ceremonies and early child development in China: By Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiaobo
  20. Gender, Competitiveness and Career Choices By Thomas Buser; Muriel Niederle; Hessel Oosterbeek
  21. The Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign and Russia's Mortality Crisis By Jay Bhattacharya; Christina Gathmann; Grant Miller
  22. France-Allemagne : histoire d’un chassé-croisé démographique By Gilles Pison
  23. Welthunger-Index: Herausforderung Hunger: Ernährung sichern, wenn Land, Wasser und Energie knapp werden By von Grebmer, Klaus; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Badiane, Ousmane; Torero, Maximo; Yohannes, Yisehac; Thompson, Jennifer; von Oppeln, Constanze; Rahall, Joseph
  24. Indice globale della fame: la sfida della fame: Garantire una sicurezza alimentare sostenibile in un contesto di scarsità di terra, acqua, e engeria By von Grebmer, Klaus; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Badiane, Ousmane; Torero, Maximo; Yohannes, Yisehac; Thompson, Jennifer; von Oppeln, Constanze; Rahall, Joseph
  25. L'Afrique, un continent jeune face au défi du vieillissement By Valérie Golaz; Laurent Nowik; Muriel Sajoux
  26. Longevity, pollution and growth By Natacha Raffin; Thomas Seegmuller
  27. Active vs. Passive Decisions and Crowdout in Retirement Savings Accounts: Evidence from Denmark By Raj Chetty; John N. Friedman; Soren Leth-Petersen; Torben Nielsen; Tore Olsen
  28. 2012 Indice de la faim dans le monde:: Relever le defi de la faim: Assurer une sécurité alimentaire durable dan un monde sous contraintes en eau, en énergie et en terres By von Grebmer, Klaus; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Badiane, Ousmane; Torero, Maximo; Yohannes, Yisehac; Thompson, Jennifer; von Oppeln, Constanze; Rahall, Joseph
  29. Population mondiale : les cartes interactives du site de l’Ined By Gilles Pison; Hélène Mathian; Christine Plumejeaud; Jérôme Gensel
  30. 2012 Global hunger index: the challenge of hunger: Ensuring sustainable food security under land, water, and energy stresses By von Grebmer, Klaus; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Badiane, Ousmane; Torero, Maximo; Yohannes, Yisehac; Thompson, Jennifer; von Oppeln, Constanze; Rahall, Joseph
  31. La contraception en France : nouveau contexte, nouvelles pratiques ? By Nathalie Bajos; Aline Bohet; Mireille Le Guen; Caroline Moreau
  32. Les maternités précoces en recul dans le monde By Gilles Pison
  33. La fécondité au Maghreb : nouvelle surprise By Zahia Ouadah-Bedidi; Jacques Vallin; Ibtihel Bouchoucha
  34. Well-being of elderly people living in nursing homes: The benefits of making friends By François-Charles Wolff

  1. By: Elise S. Brezis (Bar-Ilan University)
    Abstract: From the canonical model of Becker onward, models of population dynamics have been based on assumptions which fit the family structure of developed countries. The aim of this paper is to develop a framework that fits the family structure of poor countries. The building blocks of the model incorporate elements essential to the determination of population dynamics in poor countries, i.e., child labor, intergenerational flows from children to parents, and the effects of child labor on children’s health. The main result of this paper is that the correlation between economic growth and fertility rates runs in inverse directions for poor and rich countries.
    Keywords: child labor; health deterioration; intergenerational transfers; fertility rates.
    JEL: J13 O11 O16 O40
    Date: 2012–01
  2. By: Marco Caliendo; Steffen Künn
    Abstract: A shortage of skilled labor and low female labor market participation are problems many developed countries have to face. Beside activating inactive women, one possible solution is to support the re-integration of unemployed women. Due to female-specific labor market constraints (preferences for exible working hours, discrimination), this is a difficult task, and the question arises whether active labor market policies (ALMP) are an appropriate tool to do so. Promoting self-employment among the unemployed might be promising. Starting their own business might give women more independence and exibility in allocating their time to work and family. Access to long-term informative data allows us to close existing research gaps, and we investigate the impact of two start-up programs on long-run labor market and fertility outcomes of female participants. We find that start-up programs persistently integrate former unemployed women into the labor market and partly improve their income situations. The impact on fertility is less detrimental than for traditional ALMP programs.
    Keywords: Start-Up Subsidies, Evaluation, Long-Term Effects, Female Labor-Force Participation, Fertility
    JEL: J68 C14 H43
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Spyridon Boikos (University of Milan.); Alberto Bucci (University of Milan.); Thanasis Stengos (University of Guelph.)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between per-capita human capital investment and the birth rate. Since the consequences of higher fertility (birth rate) on per-capita human capital accumulation (the so-called dilution effect) are not the same (in sign and magnitude) across different groups of countries with different birth rates, we analyze the growth impact of a non-linear dilution-effect. The main predictions of the model (concerning the relationship between population and economic growth rates) are then compared with those of a standard model in which the exogenous birth rate affects linearly and negatively (as postulated by most of the existing theoretical literature) human capital investment at the individual level. By using non-parametric techniques, we find evidence of strong nonlinearities in the total effect of fertility on human capital accumulation. This supports the idea that fertility plays a non-monotonic role in the accumulation of human capital and hence in the growth rate of an economy. The non-monotonic effect of fertility on human capital appears to be valid for OECD, as well as non-OECD countries according to our empirical results.
    Keywords: Fertility; Population Growth; Economic Growth; Human Capital Investment; Dilution Effects.
    JEL: O41 J13 J24
    Date: 2012
  4. By: Grönqvist., Hans (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the consequences of a series of Swedish policy changes in which several regions in the 90s introduced heavily subsidized oral contraception for teenagers. The results reveal that access to the subsidy significantly increased the use of the pill as well as reduced the abortion and teenage birth rate. The decline in teenage births was especially strong among financially constrained youths. The estimates are precise enough to rule out even moderate effects on the birth weight of the children to the exposed mothers. Despite the documented improvements in women’s outcomes, the analysis reveals that the monetary costs of the subsidy substantially exceed its measurable social benefits.
    Keywords: Family planning; Abortions; Teenage childbearing
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2012–12–04
  5. By: Marta Styrc; Anna Matysiak (Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: A discussion of the effects of partners’ labour force participation on marital stability has been part of the demographic debate for several decades. While theorists generally agree that men’s employment has a stabilizing effect on marriage, there is considerable controversy about the effects of women’s involvement in the labour market on marital stability. This debate has centred on several models and arguments. The most recent contributions have underlined the role of the context in moderating the relationship in question, and our study aims to contribute to this debate. We use the case of Poland, a country that underwent rapid and profound changes in its economic, institutional, and socio-cultural settings. Using GGS-PL data, we estimated a hazard regression of marital disruption, separately for women and men. The effects of employment status were allowed to vary by calendar time in order to determine how the relationship between women’s economic activity and marital stability was affected by the transformation of the labour market; the reassignment of responsibility for an individual’s welfare among the state, the family, and the market; the change in institutional support for families; and the liberalisation of the gender roles. Our empirical study showed that, after the onset of the economic transformation, working women became significantly more likely to divorce than women who did not have a job. This finding implies that the economic transformation led to a substantial increase in women’s dependence on their partners, and made it much more difficult for non-working women to exit unhappy marriages. This conclusion is further corroborated by our finding that, relative to working women, the disruption risk among women on maternity and parental leave declined over time. As expected, men’s employment was found to stabilise marriages both prior to and after 1989.
    Keywords: marital instability, marital disruption, women’s employment, women’s economic independence
    JEL: J12 I J16
    Date: 2012
  6. By: Karimi, Arizo (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies); Lindahl, Erica (Institute for evaluation of labour market and education policy); Skogman Thoursie, Peter (Department of Economics, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: Women account for the majority of parental leave take-up, which is likely one of the major reasons for the gender gap in income and wages. Consequently, many countries exert effort to promote a more gender equal division of parental leave. Indeed, the last decades have seen an increase in fathers’ take-up of parental leave benefits, but the gender earnings gap has remained fairly constant. In this paper we re-evaluate the labour supply responses of both mothers and fathers to three major reforms in the Swedish parental leave system, recognizing that take up of paid parental leave might not fully reflect actual time off from work in a system where job-protection exceeds paid leave. We find that both mothers and fathers decreased their labour supply to the same extent as a response to an increase in paid parental leave without gender restrictions. In contrast, we find no support for any changes in fathers’ labour supply due to reforms introducing gender quotas in paid leave.
    Keywords: natural experiment; parental leave; labour supply
    JEL: J13 J16 J22 J48
    Date: 2012–11–30
  7. By: Dennis, Wesselbaum
    Abstract: Do men and women behave differently while adjusting labor supply over the business cycle? Using data for the United States we show that women are signifi…cantly more likely to adjust along the intensive margin (number of hours), while men adjust more often along the extensive margin (employment). Older, single, and divorced/widowed adjust predominantly along the extensive margin. Our …findings have crucial implications for the design of policy reforms, especially as governments desire to increase female labor force participation while facing demographic challenges.
    Keywords: Extensive Margin; Intensive Margin; Male and Female Labor Supply
    JEL: E32 J10 J20
    Date: 2012–10–29
  8. By: Eiji Yamamura
    Abstract: The Japanese General Social Survey was used to determine how individual preferences for income redistribution are affected by family structure, such as the number of siblings and birth order where individuals grow up. After controlling for various individual characteristics, the important findings were as follows. (1) The first-born child was less likely to prefer income redistribution when the child was male. However, such a tendency was not observed when the child was female. (2) The larger the number of elder brothers, the more likely an individual preferred income redistribution. However, the number of elder sisters did not affect the preference. (3) The number of younger siblings did not affect the preference for redistribution regardless of the sibling’s sex. These findings regarding the effect of birth order are not consistent with evidence provided by another study conducted in a European country.
    Keywords: Inequality aversion; Redistribution; Family structure; Birth order; Siblings.
    JEL: D19 D30 D63 J13
    Date: 2012–11–23
  9. By: Peter Teibenbacher (Department of Economic, Social and Business History, Karl-Franzens-University Graz)
    Abstract: There is a substantial body of literature on the subject of fertility decline in Europe during the first demographic transition. Historical demographic research on this topic started in Western Europe, but, as a result of the discussion of the Hajnal line thesis, the decline in fertility has been more thoroughly explored for Eastern Europe (especially Poland and Hungary) than for areas in between, like Austria. This project and this working paper will seek to close this gap by addressing the question of whether the Austrian Crown lands in the southeast represented not just an administrative, but also a demographic border. Using aggregated data from the political districts, this paper will review the classic research about, as well as the methods and definitions of, fertility decline. Our results show that, even the Crown land level, which was used in the Princeton Fertility Project, is much too high for studying significant regional and systemic differences and patterns of fertility changes and decline. This process is interpreted as a result of economic and social modernization, which brought new challenges, as well as new options. Thus, fertility decline should not be seen as a linear and sequential process, but rather as a process driven by the sometimes paradoxical interdependencies of problems and opportunities faced by families and social groups.
    Keywords: Southeast Austria, First Demographic Transition, fertility decline
    Date: 2012–09–28
  10. By: Anne Salles
    Abstract: The German labour market is in better shape than that of France, and the employment rate among women in particular is higher. This is true even though German women have more difficulty reconciling work and family life than in France. Anne Salles takes a critical look at employment indicators and how they are calculated, and explains why German women appear to be more economically active than French women, and what is really happening in the two countries.
    Date: 2012
  11. By: Bengtsson, Ola (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Sanandaji, Tino (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Johannesson, Magnus (Department of Economics)
    Abstract: A striking fact about entrepreneurship is that the number of male entrepreneurs greatly exceed the number of female entrepreneurs. We use detailed survey data from Sweden to study to what extent this gender gap can be explained by gender differences in personality. We show that women have markedly different psyche than men (11 out of 14 traits differ), and that entrepreneurs have markedly different psyche than others (8 out of 14 traits differ). However gender differences in traits do not reduce women's likelihood of being an entrepreneur in a one-sided way. We find that, in aggregate, gender differences in personality traits can explain a modest part of the gender gap in entrepreneurship: our estimates suggest 21%–32%. We also document that personality traits that distinguish entrepreneurs from others are generally not more prevalent among the non-entrepreneurial self-employed. This finding highlights that entrepreneurship is distinct from other types of self-employment.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Self-employment; Gender differences; Personality traits
    JEL: J16 L26
    Date: 2012–11–29
  12. By: Prabir C. Bhattacharya; Cornilius Chikwama
    Abstract: This paper measures the degree of inequality in child mortality rates across districts in India, using data from the 1981, 1991 and 2001 Indian population censuses. The results show that child mortality is more concentrated in less developed districts in all three census years. Further, between 1981 and 2001, the inequality in child mortality seems to have increased to the advantage of the more developed districts (i.e., there was an increasing concentration of child mortality in less developed districts). However, the inequality in female child mortality rates seems to have declined between 1991 and 2001, even as it increased – albeit at a slower rate than before – for male child mortality rates. In the decomposition analysis, it is found that while a more equitable distribution of medical facilities and safe drinking water across districts did contribute towards reducing inequality in child mortality between 1981 and 1991, different levels of structural change among districts were responsible for a very large part of the inequality in child mortality to the advantage of the more developed districts in all three census years. Other variables which played important roles in increasing inequality included a measure of infrastructure development, female literacy, and a social group status variable. The paper concludes with some brief comments on the policy implications of the findings.
    Date: 2012
  13. By: Koen Ponnet; Edwin Wouters; Tim Goedemé; Dimitri Mortelmans
    Abstract: During the past two decades, a large body of research focused on the family stress model that examined family-based pathways through which financial stress is associated with negative child outcome. These studies have shown that through elevated levels of parental and interparental distress, financial stress is associated with fewer positive parenting behaviours, which -in turn- are associated with child and adolescent externalizing problem behaviour. In this paper, we draw on the family stress model and applied its tenets to Belgian families. We expand previous studies on family stress processes by including data from both parents and a child, and explored pathways within (actor) and between (partner) parents. Data from 340 families were analyzed, with both parents rating their financial stress, depressive symptoms and marital conflicts, and parents and children rating positive parenting behaviours and children’s externalizing problem behaviours. The results revealed that the association between financial stress and children’s problem behaviour was mediated by depressive symptoms, marital conflicts, and positive parenting. We found that financial stress had direct and indirect effects on interparental conflicts. Furthermore, fathers’ positive parenting was more affected by financial stress than that of mothers. Although actor effects were more prominent, we found also evidence for partner effects. Our results underscore the importance of including multiple family members in studies on family stress processes.
    Keywords: Financial stress, parenting, adolescents' problem behaviour, family system
    Date: 2012–12
  14. By: James J. Heckman; Rodrigo Pinto; Peter A. Savelyev
    Abstract: A growing literature establishes that high quality early childhood interventions targeted toward disadvantaged children have substantial impacts on later life outcomes. Little is known about the mechanisms producing these impacts. This paper uses longitudinal data on cognitive and personality traits from an experimental evaluation of the influential Perry Preschool program to analyze the channels through which the program boosted both male and female participant outcomes. Experimentally induced changes in personality traits explain a sizable portion of adult treatment effects.
    JEL: I21 I28 I29 J13 J15 J16 J24 O15
    Date: 2012–11
  15. By: Pfeifer, Christian (Leuphana University Lueneburg and IZA); Wagner, Joachim (Leuphana University Lueneburg, CESIS)
    Abstract: This empirical research note documents the relationship between composition of a firm's workforce (with a special focus on age and gender) and its performance with respect to innovative activities (outlays and employment in research and development (R&D)) for a large representative sample of enterprises from manufacturing industries in Germany using unique newly available data. We find that firms with a higher share of older workers have significantly lower proportions of R&D outlays in total revenues and of R&D employment in total employment, whereas firms with a higher share of female employment seem to be more active in R&D.
    Keywords: Ageing; firm performance; gender; Germany; innovation; R&D
    JEL: D22 D24 J21 J24 L25
    Date: 2012–12–06
  16. By: Kumar, Neha; Quisumbing, Agnes R.
    Abstract: There is growing interest in the role of policy reforms to promote gender equality and empower women, two key objectives of development policy. From a policy perspective, it would be ideal for reforms undertaken in different policy areas to be consistent, so that they reinforce each other in improving gender equity. We use data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS) to show how two seemingly unrelated reforms—community-based land registration, undertaken since 2003, and changes in the Family Code implemented in 2000—may have created conditions for mutually reinforcing gender-sensitive reforms. Our analysis confirms previous studies’ findings of gender gaps in awareness and information about the land registration process. Male-headed households are, on average, more likely to have heard about the process, to have attended meetings (and a greater number of meetings), and to have received some written material with information about the process. Having female members in the Land Administration Committee (LAC) has a positive impact on attendance at meetings relating to land registration. In our analysis of the changes in the family law, we find that awareness about the land registration process is positively correlated with the shift in perceptions toward equal division of land and livestock upon divorce. The presence of female members in the LAC also has a positive effect on the shift in perceptions toward a more equal division of assets upon divorce. Taken together, these findings suggest that the land registration process and the reform of the Family Code may have mutually reinforcing effects on women’s rights and welfare. While this example is obviously rooted in the Ethiopian context, it raises the possibility that similar reform efforts may be complementary in other countries as well.
    Keywords: Gender, Reforms, land registration, Family code, Land policy, Land ownership, Land rights, Land tenure, Land titling, Women, Household survey,
    Date: 2012
  17. By: Chang, Simon; Zhang, Xiaobo
    Abstract: As sex ratio imbalances have become a problem in an increasing number of countries, it is important to understand their consequences. With the defeat of the Kuomintang Party in China, more than one million soldiers and civilians, mainly young males, retreated to Taiwan in the late 1940s. Initially, the soldiers from mainland China were not allowed to marry. The ban was relaxed in 1959, however, suddenly flooding the marriage market with a large number of eligible bachelors. The operational ratio of males to females at marriageable age peaked at nearly 1.2 in the 1960s. Using data from multiple sources, we find that during times of high marriage competition, young men are more likely to become entrepreneurs, work longer hours, save more, and amass more assets. The findings highlight the important role of biological forces in shaping human economic behavior.
    Keywords: Sex ratio, Entrepreneurship, Gender, Demography,
    Date: 2012
  18. By: Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between health aid and infant mortality, using data from in total 135 countries, between 1975 and 2010. According to the findings, aid comes to have a statistically significant and positive effect on infant mortality rate, as doubling of aid leads to an approximately 1.3% reduction in infant mortality rates. Thus for an average aid recipient country, doubling per capita aid leads to a reduction of about 790 deaths per million live births in a particular year. This effect, in comparison to the set goals of the Millennium Development Goals, is small and may not be enough to ensure that the MDG targets are met by 2015.
    Keywords: Health Aid; Infant Mortality Rate; System GMM
    JEL: F35 C23 C33 I10
    Date: 2012–10–12
  19. By: Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiaobo
    Abstract: Participating in and presenting gifts at funerals, weddings, and other ceremonies held by fellow villagers have been regarded as social norms in Chinese villages for thousands of years. However, it is more burdensome for the poor to take part in these social occasions than for the rich. Because the poor often lack the necessary resources, they are forced to cut back on basic consumption, such as food, in order to afford a gift to attend the social festivals. For pregnant women in poor families, such a reduction in nutrition intake as a result of gift-giving can have a lasting detrimental health impact on their children.
    Keywords: Social norms, Social relations, food consumption, Stunting, malnutrition, Women,
    Date: 2012
  20. By: Thomas Buser; Muriel Niederle; Hessel Oosterbeek
    Abstract: Gender differences in competitiveness are often discussed as a potential explanation for gender differences in education and labor market outcomes. We correlate an incentivized measure of competitiveness with an important career choice of secondary school students in the Netherlands. At the age of 15, these students have to pick one out of four study profiles, which vary in how prestigious they are. While boys and girls have very similar levels of academic ability, boys are substantially more likely than girls to choose more prestigious profiles. We find that competitiveness is as important a predictor of profile choice as gender. More importantly, up to 23 percent of the gender difference in profile choice can be attributed to gender differences in competitiveness. This lends support to the extrapolation of laboratory findings on competitiveness to labor market settings.
    JEL: C9 I20 J16 J24
    Date: 2012–11
  21. By: Jay Bhattacharya; Christina Gathmann; Grant Miller
    Abstract: Political and economic transition is often blamed for Russia’s 40% surge in deaths between 1990 and 1994. Highlighting that increases in mortality occurred primarily among alcohol-related causes and among working-age men (the heaviest drinkers), this paper investigates an alternative explanation: the demise of the 1985-1988 Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign. Using archival sources to build a new oblast-year data set spanning 1978-2000, we find a variety of evidence suggesting that the campaign’s end explains a large share of the mortality crisis – implying that Russia’s transition to capitalism and democracy was not as lethal as commonly suggested.
    JEL: I12 I18 N34
    Date: 2012–12
  22. By: Gilles Pison
    Abstract: Il y a deux siècles, l'Allemagne comptait autour de 15 millions d'habitants contre le double en France. La population allemande a fortement augmenté au cours du siècle et demi suivant, doublant celle de la France, et atteignant 60 millions d'habitants en 1939 contre 41 millions en France. Les projections annoncent que la population de la France pourrait rattraper celle de l'Allemagne et la doubler à son tour d'ici moins d'un demi-siècle.
    Date: 2012–03
  23. By: von Grebmer, Klaus; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Badiane, Ousmane; Torero, Maximo; Yohannes, Yisehac; Thompson, Jennifer; von Oppeln, Constanze; Rahall, Joseph
    Keywords: Children, Data, Developing countries, Energy, Food availability, food crises, food crisis, food security, Global Hunger Index (GHI), Gross income, Hunger, indicators, Land, Malnutrition, Mortality, Natural resources, OECD countries, Policies, Poverty, property rights, smallholders, Sustainable development, sustainable livelihoods, transition economies, Undernutrition, Underweight, Water, Nutrition,
    Date: 2012
  24. By: von Grebmer, Klaus; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Badiane, Ousmane; Torero, Maximo; Yohannes, Yisehac; Thompson, Jennifer; von Oppeln, Constanze; Rahall, Joseph
    Keywords: Children, Data, Developing countries, Energy, Food availability, food crises, food crisis, food security, Global Hunger Index (GHI), Gross income, Hunger, indicators, Land, Malnutrition, Mortality, Natural resources, OECD countries, Policies, Poverty, property rights, smallholders, Sustainable development, sustainable livelihoods, transition economies, Undernutrition, Underweight, Water, Nutrition,
    Date: 2012
  25. By: Valérie Golaz; Laurent Nowik; Muriel Sajoux
    Abstract: L'Afrique n'échappera pas au vieillissement de sa population en raison de l'allongement de la durée de vie et de la baisse de la fécondité. S'appuyant sur des projections, Valérie Golaz, Laurent Nowik et Muriel Sajoux présentent les évolutions probables d'ici 2050 et expliquent les défis qu'elles posent pour un continent où les politiques sociales à destination des personnes âgées sont très peu développées.
    Date: 2012–08
  26. By: Natacha Raffin; Thomas Seegmuller
    Abstract: We analyze the interplay between longevity, pollution and growth. We develop an OLG model where longevity, pollution and growth are endogenous. The authorities may provide two types of public services, public health and environmental maintenance, that participate to increase agents’ life expectancy and to sustain growth in the long term. We show that global dynamics might be featured by a high growth rate equilibrium, associated with longer life expectancy and a environmental poverty trap. We examine changes in public policies: increasing public intervention on health or environmental maintenance display opposite effects on global dynamics, i.e. on the size of the trap and on the level of the stable balanced growth path. On the contrary, each type of public policy induces a negative leverage on the long run rate of growth.
    Keywords: Life expectancy; Pollution; Health; Growth
    JEL: I15 O44 Q56
    Date: 2012
  27. By: Raj Chetty; John N. Friedman; Soren Leth-Petersen; Torben Nielsen; Tore Olsen
    Abstract: Do retirement savings policies – such as tax subsidies or employer-provided pension plans – increase total saving for retirement or simply induce shifting across accounts? We revisit this classic question using 45 million observations on savings for the population of Denmark. We find that a policy's impact on total savings depends critically on whether it changes savings rates by active or passive choice. Tax subsidies, which rely upon individuals to take an action to raise savings, have small impacts on total wealth. We estimate that each $1 of tax expenditure on subsidies increases total saving by 1 cent. In contrast, policies that raise savings automatically even if individuals take no action – such as employer-provided pensions or automatic contributions to retirement accounts – increase wealth accumulation substantially. Price subsidies only affect the behavior of active savers who respond to incentives, whereas automatic contributions increase savings of passive individuals who do not reoptimize. We estimate that 85% of individuals are passive savers. The 15% of active savers who respond to price subsidies do so primarily by shifting assets across accounts rather than reducing consumption. These individuals also oset changes in automatic contributions and have higher wealth-income ratios. We conclude that automatic contributions are more effective at increasing total retirement savings than price subsidies for three reasons: (1) subsidies induce relatively few individuals to respond, (2) they generate substantial crowdout conditional on response, and (3) they do not influence the savings behavior of passive individuals, who are least prepared for retirement.
    JEL: E21 H3
    Date: 2012–11
  28. By: von Grebmer, Klaus; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Badiane, Ousmane; Torero, Maximo; Yohannes, Yisehac; Thompson, Jennifer; von Oppeln, Constanze; Rahall, Joseph
    Abstract: Selon l’Indice de la faim dans le monde 2012 (GHI), la faim dans le monde a quelque peu diminué depuis 1990 mais reste « grave ». La moyenne mondiale masque des écarts importants entre les régions et les pays. A l’échelle régionale, ce sont l’Asie du Sud et l’Afrique subsaharienne qui obtiennent les scores GHI les plus élevés. L’Asie du Sud a considérablement diminué son score GHI entre 1990 et 1996, notamment en réduisant le nombre d’enfants souffrant d’insuffisance pondérale, mais n’a pas pu maintenir un tel rythme de progrès. Bien que l’Afrique subsaharienne ait accompli moins de progrès que l’Asie du Sud dans les années 1990, elle a rattrapé son retard depuis le début du millénaire ; désormais son score GHI est inférieur à celui de l’Asie du Sud. Entre le GHI de 1990 et celui de 2012, 15 pays ont réduit leur score d’au moins 50%. En termes de progrès absolus, entre les GHI de 1990 et de 2012, les pays qui ont le plus amélioré leur score sont l’Angola, le Bangladesh, l’Ethiopie, le Malawi, le Nicaragua, le Niger et le Vietnam. Vingt pays continuent d’afficher un niveau de faim « extrêmement alarmant » ou « alarmant ». La plupart des pays ayant un score GHI alarmant sont en Afrique subsaharienne et en Asie du Sud (cependant, le GHI 2012 ne reflète pas la récente crise qui a frappé la Corne de l’Afrique et qui s’est intensifiée en 2011, ni la situation d’insécurité alimentaire au Sahel). Deux des trois pays ayant obtenu un score GHI 2012 extrêmement alarmant, le Burundi et l’Erythrée, se situent en Afrique subsaharienne ; le troisième pays concerné est Haïti. Le score GHI d’Haïti a chuté d’environ 25% entre 1990 et 2001, mais cette amélioration a connu un revers dans les années postérieures. Bien que le séisme dévastateur de janvier 2010 ne soit pas entièrement reflété dans le GHI 2012 à cause d’un manque de données récentes, il a replongé Haïti dans la catégorie « extrêmement alarmant ». Contrairement aux dernières années, la République démocratique du Congo n’est pas classée dans la catégorie « extrêmement alarmant ». Cela est dû à des données insuffisantes pour calculer le score GHI du pays. Il est urgent de disposer de données actualisées et fiables afin d’évaluer la situation du pays.
    Keywords: Children, Data, Developing countries, Energy, Food availability, food crises, food crisis, food security, Global Hunger Index (GHI), Gross income, Hunger, indicators, Land, Malnutrition, Mortality, Natural resources, OECD countries, Policies, Poverty, property rights, smallholders, Sustainable development, sustainable livelihoods, transition economies, Undernutrition, Underweight, Water, Nutrition,
    Date: 2012
  29. By: Gilles Pison; Hélène Mathian; Christine Plumejeaud; Jérôme Gensel
    Abstract: L'Institut national d'études démographiques offre un nouvel outil de cartes interactives de la populationaccessible en ligne gratuitement sur son site Internet. Il permet d'afficher les cartes de tous les pays de la planète pour une trentaine d'indicateurs démographiques avec la possibilité de suivre leur évolution dans le temps comme un film. Il est aussi possible de choisir un pays et de le comparer à ses voisins, de voyager d'un pays à l'autre en observant comment l'indicateur évolue, d'observer les variations géographiques d'un indicateur sans tenir compte des frontières nationales et enfin de se positionner sur un point de la carte et observer comment la population, ou toute autre quantité, se répartit autour de ce point.
    Date: 2012–01
  30. By: von Grebmer, Klaus; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Badiane, Ousmane; Torero, Maximo; Yohannes, Yisehac; Thompson, Jennifer; von Oppeln, Constanze; Rahall, Joseph
    Keywords: Children, Data, Developing countries, Energy, Food availability, food crises, food crisis, food security, Global Hunger Index (GHI), Gross income, Hunger, indicators, Land, Malnutrition, Mortality, Natural resources, OECD countries, Policies, Poverty, property rights, smallholders, Sustainable development, sustainable livelihoods, transition economies, Undernutrition, Underweight, Water, Nutrition,
    Date: 2012
  31. By: Nathalie Bajos; Aline Bohet; Mireille Le Guen; Caroline Moreau
    Abstract: En France, en 2010, 50 % des femmes de 15-49 ans concernées par la contraception utilisent la pilule. La proportion d'utilisatrices a légèrement diminué depuis le début des années 2000, la baisse étant compensée par l'adoption de nouvelles méthodes hormonales de contraception (implant, patch contraceptif et anneau vaginal) sauf chez les 20-24 ans. Le recours au stérilet (DIU) continue de diminuer légèrement et l'utilisation du préservatif progresse. La stérilisation contraceptive n'est utilisée que par une minorité de femmes alors qu'elle a été légalisée en 2001 comme méthode contraceptive. Environ 3 % de femmes n'utilisent pas de contraception du tout alors qu'elles ne souhaitent pas être enceintes. Cette situation est plus fréquente chez les femmes confrontées à une situation financière difficile, peu ou pas diplômées, ou vivant en milieu rural.
    Date: 2012–09
  32. By: Gilles Pison
    Abstract: En 2010, il est né 54 enfants pour 1 000 femmes ayant entre 15 et 19 ans dans le monde, soit 16 % de moins qu'en 2000. Le recul de la fécondité précoce est associé au retard du mariage ou de la vie de couple chez les femmes, lié lui-même à leur scolarisation et à l'évolution de leur statut dans la société. En France, après avoir augmenté au cours des trois premiers quarts du xxe siècle sous l'effet de la libéralisation des moeurs, la fréquence des maternités précoces a été divisée par quatre dans les années 1970 et 1980 grâce à la libéralisation de la contraception et de l'avortement.
    Date: 2012–06
  33. By: Zahia Ouadah-Bedidi; Jacques Vallin; Ibtihel Bouchoucha
    Abstract: La fécondité, après avoir convergé vers le seuil de remplacement dans les pays du Maghreb, y évolue aujourd'hui de façon contrastée. En Tunisie, la fécondité a cessé de baisser et semble rivée à 2,1 enfants par femme depuis 1999. En Algérie, après avoir atteint 2,2 dans la première moitié des années 2000, elle ne cesse d'augmenter depuis, atteignant presque 2,9 en 2010. Dans le même temps, au Maroc et en Libye, où le seuil de remplacement n'était pas encore atteint, elle a continué à baisser rapidement jusqu'à 2,2 et 2,5 respectivement. Non seulement aucun de ces pays n'est encore tombé sous le seuil de remplacement mais l'Algérie opère depuis dix ans une vive remontée. Comme hier pour la baisse de la fécondité, l'évolution de l'âge au mariage joue aujourd'hui le premier rôle dans sa stabilisation à 2 enfants par femme en Tunisie et dans la remontée à près de 3 en Algérie. Mais il se peut aussi que dans ce pays, le modèle à deux enfants ne soit plus aussi attractif.
    Date: 2012–02
  34. By: François-Charles Wolff (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272, INED - Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques Paris - INED)
    Abstract: Using French data collected in 2007 from a sample of about 2,000 elderly people living in nursing homes, this paper investigates the role that individual characteristics play in satisfaction with life and depression. Following psychological studies that have highlighted the benefits of social interactions on individual well-being, I focus in particular on the role played by making friends in the nursing home. Results from random effect ordered Probit models show that both satisfaction with living conditions and feeling of depression are much more influenced by making friends in the institution than by visits from family and relatives or other individual background characteristics. These findings may be interpreted as evidence of a relational return to friendship within nursing homes.
    Keywords: friends; institutionalized elderly; living conditions; nursing home; relational goods
    Date: 2012–09–30

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