nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2012‒10‒13
29 papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Abortion Costs, Separation and Non-Marital Childbearing By Andrew Beauchamp
  2. Public debt, child allowances, and pension benefits with endogenous fertility By Yasuoka, Masaya; Miyake, Atsushi
  3. Saving Lives at Birth: The Impact of Home Births on Infant Outcomes By Daysal, N. Meltem; Trandafir, Mircea; van Ewijk, Reyn
  4. Manly rights and manly duties. Sexuality and birth control in Flanders 1900-1940 By Isabelle Devos; Christa Matthys
  5. The Past and Future of Knowledge-based Growth By Holger Strulik; Klaus Prettner; Alexia Prskawetz
  6. From Polygamy to Serial Monogamy: a Unified Theory of Marriage Institutions By David de la Croix
  7. Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth: reconciling theory and evidence By Klaus Prettner; Timo Trimborn
  8. Secular fertility declines, baby booms and economic growth: international evidence By Tamura, Robert; Simon, Curtis J.
  9. Author-Name: Social Security, Ageing and Economic Integration By Lionel Artige; Antoine Dedry; Pierre Pestieau
  10. Why Do Women Leave Science and Engineering? By Hunt, Jennifer
  11. Why Don't Women Patent? By Hunt, Jennifer; Garant, Jean-Philippe; Herman, Hannah; Munroe, David J.
  12. Household Interaction and the Labor Supply of Married Women By Zvi Eckstein
  13. Why Do Women Leave Science and Engineering? By Hunt, Jennifer
  14. Terms of Endearment: An Equilibrium Model Of Sex and Matching By Peter Arcidiacono; Andrew Beauchamp; Marjorie McElroy
  15. The impact of advice on women's and men's selection into competition By Jordi Brandts; Valeska Groener; Christina Rott
  16. Impact of Educational and Training Program on an Economic Loss from the Population Aging Using an Interregional CGE Model of Korea By Euijune Kim; Geoffrey Hewings; Changkeun Lee
  17. Sharing High Growth Across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China By Song, Zheng Michael; Storesletten, Kjetil; Wang, Yikai; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
  18. Negative Economic Shocks and Child Schooling: Evidence from Rural Malawi By Asma Hyder; Jere R. Behrman; Hans-Peter Kohler
  19. Personality, Group Decision-Making and Leadership By Seda Ertac; Mehmet Y. Gurdal
  20. Determinants of Mortality in Russian Regions: an Empirical Analysis By Tatiana Blinova; Svetlana Bylina
  21. Reproductive Health Laws Around the World By Jocelyn E. Finlay; David Canning; June Y. T. Po
  22. Television and Contraceptive Use – Panel Evidence from Rural Indonesia By Jörg Peters; Christoph Strupat; Colin Vance
  23. Are all High-Skilled Cohorts Created Equal? Unemployment, Gender, and Research Productivity 1 By John P. Conley; Ali Sina Önder; Benno Torgler
  24. Revisiting the Effect of Household Size on Consumption Over the Life-Cycle By Bick, Alexander; Choi, Sekyu
  25. Exploring the Capability to Backward Induct – An Experimental Study with Children and Young Adults By Jeannette Brosig-Koch; Timo Heinrich; Christoph Helbach
  26. Exploring the Early-life Causes and Later-life Consequences of Migration through a Longitudinal Study on Ageing By Barrett, Alan; Mosca, Irene
  27. Life Expectancy, Labor Supply, and Long-Run Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence By Holger Strulik; Katharina Werner
  28. Housing preferences and attribute importance among Dutch older adults: a conjoint choice experiment By Petra de Jong; Jan Rouwendal; Aleid Brouwer
  29. El mercado laboral y el problema pensional colombiano By Hugo LóPEz Castaño; Francisco Lasso Valderrama

  1. By: Andrew Beauchamp (Boston College)
    Abstract: How do abortion costs affect non-marital childbearing? While greater access to abortion has the first-order effect of reducing childbearing among pregnant women, it could nonetheless lead to unintended consequences via effects on marriage market norms. Single motherhood could rise if lower-cost abortion makes it easier for men to avoid marriage. We identify the effect of abortion costs on separation, cohabitation and marriage following a birth by exploiting the "miscarriage-as-a-natural experiment" methodology in combination with changes in state abortion laws. Recent increases in abortion restrictions appear to have lead to a sizable decrease in a woman's chances of being single and increased the chances of cohabitation. The result underscores the importance of the marriage market search behavior of men and women, and the positive and negative effects of abortion laws on bargaining power for women who abort and give birth respectively.
    Keywords: Fertility; Non-marital Childbearing; Abortion Costs
    JEL: J12 J13
    Date: 2012–08–31
  2. By: Yasuoka, Masaya; Miyake, Atsushi
    Abstract: The stock of public debt in some developed countries continues to increase because of a lack of tax revenues and the burdens of social security. Many of those developed countries suffer from lower birth rates. Child allowances might help to raise fertility, leading to higher tax revenue in the future because of an increase in the younger population. In this paper, the authors examine whether or not child allowances reduce the public debt stock as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in an economy with a pension system. As long as the long-run debt ratio is non-negative, child allowances financed by bonds always increase the public debt stock per unit of GDP. --
    Keywords: public debt,endogenous fertility,child allowances,pension
    JEL: G23 H55 J13
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Daysal, N. Meltem (Tilburg University); Trandafir, Mircea (University of Sherbrooke); van Ewijk, Reyn (University of Mainz)
    Abstract: Many developed countries have recently experienced sharp increases in home birth rates. This paper investigates the impact of home births on the health of low-risk newborns using data from the Netherlands, the only developed country where home births are widespread. To account for endogeneity in location of birth, we exploit the exogenous variation in distance from a mother's residence to the closest hospital. We find that giving birth in a hospital leads to substantial reductions in newborn mortality. We provide suggestive evidence that proximity to medical technologies may be an important channel contributing to these health gains.
    Keywords: medical technology, birth, home birth, mortality
    JEL: I11 I12 I18 J13
    Date: 2012–09
  4. By: Isabelle Devos; Christa Matthys (Department of History, Ghent University)
    Abstract: During the first half of the twentieth century, discourses on distinct gendered sexual experiences were particularly powerful. Sexual lust was considered an invincible element of manly nature. Women had to channel this desire into permissible behavior: while they should not stimulate lust outside marriage, they were subjected to giving in to the manly rights within marriage. This encompasses a more general ideal of men as sexually active and women as passive recipients. In contrast, when it comes to the use of birth control, it is often assumed that women were the ones who took the initiative because the burden of large families weighed heavier on them. Before the existence of modern contraception however, women depended on the cooperation of their husbands since the most common ways to control fertility were temporary abstinence and coitus interruptus. In this perspective, family limitation occurs when women were in a position strong enough to convince the men. In Flanders, fertility levels dropped from about 1900. This creates an interesting paradox: at the moment when the emphasis on female sexual obedience was at its strongest, women’s negotiation power in the bed seems to have increased enormously. The answer to this apparent inconsistency may be found in a shift of focus from merely the content of the prevailing sexual ideologies to the way they were instructed to and experienced by common people. To this end, this paper analyses (1) how dominant discourses about sexuality were shaped into practical pedagogical literature for adolescents, (2) testimonies of men and women regarding sexual lust and inhibitions outside and within marriage and (3) their negotiation of the use of birth control methods. We argue that the ideal of male activeness versus female passiveness influenced the sexual practice and family planning of men and women in the first half of the twentieth century. When women were indeed more motivated than their partners to limit the family size, they exploited their passivity by faking sleep or illness. Yet, many couples agreed on family control. This suggests that the preferences of men and women alike had altered during this period. When this was the case, the use of contraceptive practices was considered the man’s duty: he was responsible for using coitus interruptus or purchasing of condoms. This shows that changing perceptions on family limitation were not necessarily linked with more egalitarian sexual experiences.
    JEL: J13 N33 N34
    Date: 2012–10
  5. By: Holger Strulik; Klaus Prettner; Alexia Prskawetz
    Abstract: Conventional R&D-based growth theory argues that productivity growth is driven by population growth but the data suggest that the erstwhile positive correlation between population and productivity turned negative during the 20th century. In order to resolve this problem we integrate R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The model explains the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The ongoing child quality-quantity trade-off during the transition explains why in modern economies high growth of productivity and income is associated with low or negative population growth. Because growth in modern economies is based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth – when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries – are much better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.
    Keywords: R&D, declining population, fertility, schooling, human capital
    JEL: J13 J24 O10 O30 O40
    Date: 2012–09–18
  6. By: David de la Croix (Univ cath Louvain)
    Abstract: We consider an economy populated by males and females, both rich and poor. The society has to choose one of the following marriage institutions: polygamy, strict monogamy, and serial monogamy (divorce and remarriage). Preferences are aggregated through a voting process. After having identified the conditions under which each of these equilibria exists, we show that a rise in the share of rich males can explain a change of regime from polygamy to monogamy. The introduction of serial monogamy follows from a further rise in either the share of rich males, or from an increase in the proportion of rich females. Strict monogamy is a prerequisite to serial monogamy, as it promotes more than polygamy the upward social mobility of females. These results also show that polygamy is compatible with democracy.
    Date: 2012
  7. By: Klaus Prettner; Timo Trimborn
    Abstract: In recent decades, most industrialized countries experienced declining population growth rates caused by declining fertility and associated with rising life expectancy. We analyze the effect of continuing demographic change on medium- and long-run economic growth by setting forth an R&D-based growth model including an analytically tractable demographic structure. Our results show that, in response to demographic change, technological progress and economic growth accelerate in the medium run but slow down in the long run. Numerical investigation reveals that the time period during which technological progress and economic growth are faster than without demographic change can be very long. Since the theoretical predictions for the medium run are consistent with the negative association between population growth and economic growth found in the empirical literature, the present framework can reconcile R&D-based growth theory with the available empirical evidence.
    Keywords: demographic change, technological progress, economic growth, semiendogenous growth theory, transitional dynamics
    JEL: J11 O30 O41
    Date: 2012–09–04
  8. By: Tamura, Robert; Simon, Curtis J.
    Abstract: We present a model capable of explaining 200 years of declining fertility, 200 years of rising educational achievement and a significant Baby Boom for the United States and twenty other industrialized market countries. We highlight the importance of secularly declining young adult mortality risk for producing secularly declining fertility and a sudden decline in housing costs after the end of the Second World War, but ending by 1970. In addition we introduce a new puzzle to the profession. Given the magnitude of the Baby Boom, roughly equal to fertility in 1900 for many of these countries, why did schooling of the Baby Boom cohorts not fall to the 1900 level of their predecessors? In fact, not only do they not fall, but their schooling levels are higher than previous cohorts. Using a quantitative model we are able to identify the magnitude of the reduction in costs of education necessary to explain this paradoxical increase in schooling. We find empirical support for these cost reductions.
    Keywords: baby booms; schooling costs; mortality
    JEL: I2 J10 O15 O4
    Date: 2012–10–01
  9. By: Lionel Artige; Antoine Dedry; Pierre Pestieau
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of economic integration when countries differ in their social security systems, more specifically in the degree of funding of their pensions, and in the flexibility in the retirement age. It then turns to the impact of ageing, namely the decline in fertility and the increase in longevity, on the welfare of these integrated countries.
    Date: 2012
  10. By: Hunt, Jennifer (Rutgers University)
    Abstract: I use the 1993 and 2003 National Surveys of College Graduates to examine the higher exit rate of women compared to men from science and engineering relative to other fields. I find that the higher relative exit rate is driven by engineering rather than science, and show that 60% of the gap can be explained by the relatively greater exit rate from engineering of women dissatisfied with pay and promotion opportunities. I find that family-related constraints and dissatisfaction with working conditions are only secondary factors. The relative exit rate by gender from engineering does not differ from that of other fields once women's relatively high exit rates from male fields generally are taken into account.
    Keywords: science and engineering workforce, gender
    JEL: J16 J44
    Date: 2012–09
  11. By: Hunt, Jennifer (Rutgers University); Garant, Jean-Philippe (McGill University); Herman, Hannah (McGill University); Munroe, David J. (Columbia University)
    Abstract: We investigate women's underrepresentation among holders of commercialized patents: only 5.5% of holders of such patents are female. Using the National Survey of College Graduates 2003, we find only 7% of the gap in patenting rates is accounted for by women's lower probability of holding any science or engineering degree, because women with such a degree are scarcely more likely to patent than women without. Differences among those without a science or engineering degree account for 15%, while 78% is accounted for by differences among those with a science or engineering degree. For the latter group, we find that women's underrepresentation in engineering and in jobs involving development and design explain much of the gap.
    Keywords: patenting, gender
    JEL: J16 O31
    Date: 2012–09
  12. By: Zvi Eckstein (Tel Aviv University)
    Abstract: The major increase in the employment rate of married women while that of men remained almost unchanged is one of the most dramatic socioeconomic changes to have taken place during the last century. In this paper, we argue that shifts in social norms regarding household interaction in determining a married couple’s labor supply can provide an explanation. Specifically, we formulate and estimate a dynamic discrete-choice labor supply model, assuming that there are two types of households – Classical and Modern. The Classical household follows a Stackelberg leader game in which the wife’s labor supply decision follows her husband’s already-known employment outcome. The Modern family is characterized by a symmetric and simultaneous game that determines their joint labor supply and has a Nash equilibrium. The family type – Modern or Classical – is exogenously determined when the couple gets married but is not observable for estimation. The model is estimated using the Simulated Moments Method (SMM) and data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) survey for the years 1983-93. The estimated model accurately predicts employment rates and produces a good fit of mean wages to the data. We estimate that 38 percent of families are Modern and that the participation rate of women in those households is almost 80 percent. The employment rate of women in Classical families is 10 percent lower than that while the employment rates of men is almost identical in the two household types. These results support our hypothesis that part of the increase in labor supply of married women may be due to an increase in the share of Modern families in the population.
    Date: 2012
  13. By: Hunt, Jennifer
    Abstract: I use the 1993 and 2003 National Surveys of College Graduates to examine the higher exit rate of women compared to men from science and engineering relative to other fields. I find that the higher relative exit rate is driven by engineering rather than science, and show that 60% of the gap can be explained by the relatively greater exit rate from engineering of women dissatisfied with pay and promotion opportunities. I find that family-related constraints and dissatisfaction with working conditions are only secondary factors. The relative exit rate by gender from engineering does not differ from that of other fields once women's relatively high exit rates from male fields generally are taken into account.
    Keywords: Engineering; Science; Women
    JEL: J44 J7
    Date: 2012–09
  14. By: Peter Arcidiacono (Duke University); Andrew Beauchamp (Boston College); Marjorie McElroy (Duke University)
    Abstract: We develop a directed search model of relationship formation which can disentangle male and female preferences for types of partners and for different relationship terms using only a cross-section of observed matches. Individuals direct their search to a particular type of match on the basis of (i) the terms of the relationship, (ii) the type of partner, and (iii) the endogenously determined probability of matching. If men outnumber women, they tend to trade a low probability of a preferred match for a high probability of a less-preferred match; the analogous statement holds for women. Using data from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health we estimate the equilibrium matching model with high school relationships. Variation in gender ratios is used to uncover male and female preferences. Estimates from the structural model match subjective data on whether sex would occur in one's ideal relationship. The equilibrium result shows that some women would ideally not have sex, but do so out of matching concerns; the reverse is true for men.
    Date: 2012–08–31
  15. By: Jordi Brandts; Valeska Groener; Christina Rott
    Abstract: We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how advice affects the gender gap in the entry into a real-effort tournament. Our experiment is mo- tivated by the concerns raised by approaching the gender gap through affirmative action. Advice is given by subjects who have already had some experience with the participation decision. We show that advice improves the entry decision of subjects, in that forgone earnings due to wrong entry decisions go significantly down. This is mainly driven by significantly increased entry of strong performing women, who also become significantly more confident, and reduced entry of weak performing men.
    Keywords: : experiments, advice, gender gap in competitiveness
    JEL: C91 J08 J16
    Date: 2012–10–01
  16. By: Euijune Kim; Geoffrey Hewings; Changkeun Lee
    Abstract: The spatial policies for coping with the challenges of shifting demographic structures can be practically formulated if the responses of economic agents are specified according to economic incentives and motivations for labor participation by recognizing age-specific productivities. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of educational and training policies on an economic loss from the population aging using an Interregional CGE Model of Korea. The CGE model is developed for seven industrial sectors of two regions, namely the SMA and the rest of Korea. The ICGE model accounts for the economic behavior of producers and consumers on the real side economy, following the neoclassical elasticity approach of Robinson (1989), such as that of market-clearing prices, the maximization of a firm¡¯s profit, and a household¡¯s utility. Three major economic regions constitute our ICGE model: the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) and the rest of Korea (ROK) and one representing the rest of the world (ROW). As explained in the previous section, production activity is divided among three industrial sectors. The industrial sectors were not, unfortunately, classified in detail due to a lack of information for industry by commodity matrix and time series data of regional consumption goods by population cohort. To measure the effects of aging on regional economies, population demographics are disaggregated into nine age cohorts: 0–9, 10–19, 20–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79, and an 80+ age group. Among the age cohorts, those individuals between 0–19 years of age are assumed not to participate in the labor markets, and instead believed to be supported by their parents. More generally, each age cohort carries different parameters and values for labor productivity, mortality rates, and participation rates in the labor market (i.e., share of labor supply relative to total population size) on the supply side, and saving rates and consumption behaviors on the demand side. Average wage rate by region and working age group is estimated according to a Mincerian earning regression, in which the determinants of the wage are gender, education level, job experience, type of occupation and industrial sector, and possession (or lack thereof) of a professional license. This paper showed that aging population has a comparatively negative effect on economic growth in domestic economy, but the economic loss could be reduced by the government¡¯s education and training programs.
    Date: 2012–10
  17. By: Song, Zheng Michael; Storesletten, Kjetil; Wang, Yikai; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
    Abstract: Intergenerational inequality and old-age poverty are salient issues in contemporary China. China's aging population threatens the fiscal sustainability of its pension system, a key vehicle for intergenerational redistribution. We analyze the positive and normative effects of alternative pension reforms, using a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates population dynamics and productivity growth. Although a reform is necessary, delaying its implementation implies large welfare gains for the (poorer) current generations, imposing only small costs on (richer) future generations. In contrast, a fully funded reform harms current generations, with small gains to future generations. High wage growth is key for these results.
    Keywords: China; Credit market imperfections; Demographic transition; Economic growth; Fully funded system; Inequality; Intergenerational redistribution; Labor supply; Migration; Pensions; Poverty
    JEL: E21 E24 G23 H55 J11 O43 R23
    Date: 2012–09
  18. By: Asma Hyder (Karachi School for Business and Leadership, Pakistan); Jere R. Behrman (Population Studies Center, Sociology Department, University of Pennsylvania); Hans-Peter Kohler (Population Studies Center, Sociology Department, University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: This study investigates the impacts of negative economic shocks on child schooling in households of rural Malawi, one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Two waves of household panel data for years 2006 and 2008 from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH) are used to examine the impact of negative shocks on child schooling. Both individually-reported and community-level shocks are investigated. A priori the impact of negative shocks on schooling may be negative (if income effects dominate) or positive (if price effects dominate). Also the effects may be larger for measures of idiosyncratic shocks (if there is considerable within-community variation in experiencing shocks) or for aggregate shocks (if community support networks buffer better idiosyncratic than aggregate shocks). Finally there may be gender differences in the relevance for child schooling of shocks reported by men versus those reported by women with, for example, the former having larger effects if resource constraints have strong effects on schooling and if because of gender roles men perceive better than women shocks that affect household resources. The study finds that negative economic shocks have significant negative impacts on child school enrollment and grade attainment, with the estimated effects of the community shocks larger and more pervasive than the estimated effects of idiosyncratic shocks and with the estimated effects of shocks reported by men as large or larger than the estimated effects of shocks reported by women.
    Keywords: Africa, Economic Shocks, Child Schooling
    JEL: N37 E30 I21
    Date: 2012–09–11
  19. By: Seda Ertac (Department of Economics, Koç University); Mehmet Y. Gurdal (Department of Economics, TOBB-ETU)
    Abstract: This paper explores the effect of personality traits on: (1) the willingness to make risk-taking decisions on behalf of a group, (2) the nature of "choice shifts", i.e. the difference between the amount of risk taken in the group context and individually. Openness and agreeableness emerge as significant determinants of the willingness to lead: non-leader women and non-leader men score lower on openness and higher in agreeableness compared to both leader men and leader women. Neuroticism explains the within-gender variance in individual risk-taking among women, who are on average more risk-averse than men. Subjects in general behave more cautiously when they are making risky decisions on behalf of a group. Among men, a higher agreeableness score implies higher caution in group decisions, while conscientiousness leads to less caution. In contrast, among women, a higher conscientiousness score implies higher caution in the group context, suggesting that the two genders might interpret the social norms in group decision-making differently.
    Keywords: Personality, leadership, gender, group decision-making, risk, choice shifts, experiments.
    JEL: C91 C92 D81 J16
    Date: 2012–10
  20. By: Tatiana Blinova; Svetlana Bylina
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to make an empirical analysis and econometric evaluation of determinants of mortality for population of the able-bodied age in Russian regions. The model that was evaluated included five groups of factors (economic, social, ecological, demographic and behavioral). Results of the empirical analysis are presented to show that statistically relevant indicators are the characteristics of the region, way of life of the people and investments in the health care. Taxonomy of the regions of the Russian Federation is made according to basic classes of causes of death of the population of the able-bodied age that is developed by employing hierarchical cluster analysis and the SPSS statistical processing software. The results of the study show that the regional structure of mortality among the population of the able-bodied age is governed by specific characteristics of the region. The relationship between the ecological adversity and high mortality from neoplasm is revealed. The hypothesis that anti-social behavior affects the level of mortality from external causes is confirmed. It is argued that increased investments in the public health service and promotion of the healthy way of life can help reduce the mortality among the able-bodied population from cardiovascular diseases. The regression equations are evaluated by using the data openly presented by the Federal State Statistics Service on the website of Rosstat. The study of the nosological profile of mortality among the able-bodied population by Russian regions allowed identify the territorial features of the structure of causes of death, which can be used when developing regional strategies for reducing mortality among the population of the able-bodied age.
    Date: 2012–10
  21. By: Jocelyn E. Finlay (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies); David Canning (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies); June Y. T. Po (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies)
    Abstract: We develop an index of reproductive health laws around the world. Laws regarding abortion, contraceptive pill, condom, intrauterine device, and sterilization are detailed for 186 countries from 1960 through to 2009. Using qualitative information dating from the 1960s, we code information on reproductive health laws around the world into panel data. In this paper we summarize the indexation of the laws, detailing the sources and methodologies we used to create the index. We show changes in the laws over time, and compare laws across countries. In addition, we demonstrate the potential use of the panel data by exploring the differential liberalization of reproductive health laws across country-level socioeconomic factors. We show that countries with more liberal abortion laws associated with higher income per capita, higher levels of female education, and lower fertility rates.
    Keywords: Fertility, Reproductive Health Laws, Abortion, Contraception
    Date: 2012–10
  22. By: Jörg Peters; Christoph Strupat; Colin Vance
    Abstract: In recent years, rural electrification and access to television have spread rapidly throughout the developing world. The values and cultural norms embodied in television programming have potentially profound implications for influencing behavior, particularly as regards reproductive decisions. Using household panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), this paper explores the effect of television ownership on the use of modern contraceptives in rural Indonesia. Although results from a pooled regression suggest a statistically significant and positive relationship between contraceptive use and television ownership, this finding is not robust to fixed effects estimates that control for time-invariant unobserved characteristics. By contrast, several other individual and community-level determinants, most notably the presence of midwives and health services, are statistically significant in the fixed effects model. We conclude that the growing corpus of cross-sectional evidence on a link between television and contraception should be interpreted cautiously.
    Keywords: Contraceptive use; television; fertility; technology adoption; rural development
    JEL: J13 O12 O33
    Date: 2012–09
  23. By: John P. Conley; Ali Sina Önder; Benno Torgler
    Abstract: Using life cycle publication data of 9,368 economics PhD graduates from 127 U.S. institutions, we investigate how unemployment in the U.S. economy prior to starting graduate studies and at the time of entry into the academic job market affect economics PhD graduates’ research productivity. We analyze the period between 1987 and 1996 and find that favorable conditions at the time of academic job search have a positive effect on research productivity (measured in numbers of publications) for both male and female graduates. On the other hand, unfavorable employment conditions at the time of entry into graduate school affects female research productivity negatively, but male productivity positively. These findings are consistent with the notion that men and women differ in their perception of risk in high skill occupations. In the specific context of research-active occupations that require high skill and costly investment in human capital, an ex post poor return on undergraduate educational investment may cause women to opt for less risky and secure occupations while men seem more likely to “double down” on their investment in human capital. Further investigation, however, shows that additional factors may also be at work.
    Keywords: Research Productivity; Human Capital; Graduate Education; Gender Differences
    JEL: J16 J24
    Date: 2012–10
  24. By: Bick, Alexander; Choi, Sekyu
    Abstract: Although the link between household size and consumption has a strong empirical support, there is no consistent way in which demographics are dealt with in standard life-cycle models. We study the relationship between the predictions of the Single Agent model (the standard in the literature) versus a simple model extension where deterministic changes in household size and composition affect optimal consumption decisions. We provide theoretical results comparing both approaches and quantify the differences in predictions across models.
    Keywords: Consumption; Life-Cycle Models
    JEL: D12 J10 D91 E21
    Date: 2012–10
  25. By: Jeannette Brosig-Koch; Timo Heinrich; Christoph Helbach
    Abstract: We investigate learning and the development of the capability to backward induct in children and young adults aged 6 to 23 under controlled laboratory conditions. The experimental design employs a modified version of the race game. As in the original game (see Burks et al., 2009, Dufwenberg et al., 2010, Gneezy et al., 2010, and Levitt et al., 2011), subjects need to apply backward induction in order to solve the games. We find that subjects’ capability to backward induct improves with age, but that this process systematically diff ers across gender. Our repetition of the games provides insights into differences in learning between age groups and across gender.
    Keywords: Backward induction; learning; age effects; experimental economics; children
    JEL: C72 J13 C91
    Date: 2012–07
  26. By: Barrett, Alan (Trinity College Dublin); Mosca, Irene (Trinity College Dublin)
    Abstract: Between 2009 and 2011, fieldwork was undertaken for the first wave of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). Extension information was collected on about 8,500 people aged 50 and over and living in Ireland, covering topics such as economic circumstances and health. One of the features of Ireland's older population is the remarkably high proportion of returned migrants, that is, former emigrants who have returned to live in Ireland. According to the TILDA data over 20 per cent of Ireland's over 50s are returned migrants. This group represents a sub-population who is likely to have faced specific challenges over the life-course and who may now have specific circumstances and needs. The group also provides an opportunity to explore the impacts of migration through the generally under-utilised approach of comparing stayers and returners. In this paper, the authors report on work which has been undertaken on return migrants using the TILDA data. This work has revealed higher rates of childhood abuse victimhood among the returned migrants, higher rates of alcohol problems among some of them and higher rates of social isolation. The work can inform the design of social policy within Ireland. It can also add to the international literature on the impacts of migration over the life-course.
    Keywords: return migrants, older adults, social isolation, child abuse, alcoholism
    JEL: J14 J15
    Date: 2012–09
  27. By: Holger Strulik; Katharina Werner
    Abstract: We set up a simple overlapping generation model that allows us to distinguish between life expectancy and active life expectancy. We show that individuals optimally adjust to a longer active life by educating more and, if the labor supply elasticity is high enough, by supplying less labor. When calibrated to US data the model explains the historical evolution of increasing education and declining labor supply (of cohorts born 1850-1950) as an optimal response to increasing active life expectancy. We integrate the theory into a unified growth model and reestablish increasing life expectancy as an engine of long-run economic development.
    Keywords: longevity, active life expectancy, education, hours worked, economic growth
    JEL: E20 I25 J22 O10 O40
    Date: 2012–09–18
  28. By: Petra de Jong; Jan Rouwendal; Aleid Brouwer
    Abstract: The “ageing†of the developed world population is a well-known and well documented phenomenon. In the year 2012 16 percent of the Dutch population is aged 65 and older. By the year 2040 this figure will rise to approximately 26 percent. The change in the number and the proportion of older adults in our society will have numerous implications. For one, the increase of older adults will place an enormous burden on existing income systems, health care systems, social services and retirement programs. It has also been estimated that, for the period 2006 to 2015, there is a shortage of 406.000 houses suitable for older adults in the Netherlands. One of the biggest challenges is to provide proper housing conditions that correspond with the diverse housing preferences of an ageing population. In order to respond accurately to this challenge we need to develop a further understanding of the housing preferences of Dutch older adults. Over the years, several modelling approaches have been proposed and applied in research to measure preferences. An emerging, and one of the most popular modelling approaches at the time, is the stated preferences approach. In this research the stated housing preferences of Dutch older adults will be analysed based on a carefully constructed survey, which is designed as conjoint choice experiment. A conjoint choice experiment is an approach that seeks to describe and predict preferences of respondents by looking at their responses to hypothetical residential profiles that can be viewed as integral descriptions of housing situations (characteristics of the house, the environment, etc.). In this study, approximately 1000 older adults are presented with 24 so-called choice sets, each existing out of three residential profiles. The older adults are asked to indicate the first and second most preferred residential profile, thereby revealing their complete orderings of the three. Subsequently, the utility function (e.g. preference) can be estimated by using logistic regression analysis. Based on these estimates it is possible to determine the relative importance of certain housing attributes. Keywords: stated preferences, conjoint analyses, older adults, housing JEL codes: C35 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, J14 - Economics of the Elderly, R21 - Housing Demand
    Date: 2012–10
  29. By: Hugo LóPEz Castaño; Francisco Lasso Valderrama
    Abstract: Este artículo examina el problema que plantea la cobertura pensional de los colombianos menos educados y más vulnerables. Relaciona las tendencias del mercado laboral con la baja cobertura pensional: el sesgo del empleo urbano moderno contra los menos educados ha generado para estos un ciclo de vida laboral muy marcado (empleo asalariado para los jóvenes, informal para los adultos): durante su fase asalariada temprana perciben ingresos relativamente mejores y, salvo en los períodos de desempleo, cotizan más al sistema pensional; durante su fase madura como informales perciben ingresos más bajos y dejan de cotizar. Ello, junto con la bajísima calidad del empleo rural, explica la baja cobertura pensional. Hemos diseñado un modelo para estimar el futuro laboral y pensional de cada uno de los 167.304 individuos en edad de trabajar existentes en la muestra de la encuesta nacional de hogares del DANE del tercer trimestre de 2007. Para ello ha sido necesario calcular su supervivencia hasta los 65 años, las probabilidades anuales de transición entre asalariados, no asalariados, desempleados e inactivos, por edades simples, sexo y nivel educativo y también, con base en la información de esa encuesta de hogares, las semanas y sumas monetarias cotizadas por cada uno. Dados los resultados (solo los más educados podrán pensionarse en proporciones significativas, los menos educados no) y con el fin de elevar la cobertura para estos últimos, hemos considerado una serie de modificaciones al mercado laboral colombiano y examinado también los impactos de la pensión familiar. Los resultados, que son bastante decepcionantes (la cobertura no sube mucho ni bajo el régimen de capitalización, ni bajo el de prima media a menos que este último se deficite peligrosamente), revelan que, aunque la densidad de cotizaciones se eleva significativamente y los salarios de los obreros y empleados suben cuando se formaliza en el empleo asalariado, resultan insuficientes dados los bajísimos ingresos de los trabajadores informales; sin embargo, bajo el régimen de capitalización y excluyendo la garantía de pensión mínima, el escenario más optimista (que incluye un alza del 50% en la educación superior) mejora sustancialmente la cobertura pensional global; lo hace al garantizar a la población empleos de altos salarios y con mayores densidades de cotización. Por eso, el artículo se ocupa también finalmente de los impactos de los beneficios económicos periódicos sobre las posibilidades pensionales de la población menos educada.
    Keywords: Modelos de ciclo de vida; seguridad social y pensiones públicas; economía laboral; tendencias demográficas. Classification JEL: D91, H55, H75, J0, J1, J2 J3
    Date: 2012–10

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