nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2012‒07‒29
24 papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Female Employment and Fertility - The Effects of Rising Female Wages By Christian Siegel
  2. Delayed Entry into First Marriage: Further Evidence on the Becker-Landes-Michael Hypothesis By Lehrer, Evelyn L.; Chen, Yu
  3. Family and Childcare Support Public Expenditures and Short-Term Fertility Dynamics By Cosmin Enache
  4. Financial incentives, the timing of births, birth complications, and newborns' health: Evidence from the abolition of Austria's baby bonus By Beatrice Brunner; Andreas Kuhn
  5. Why Highly Educated Women Face Potential Poverty: A Case Study in Dhaka, Bangladesh By Syeda Umme Jakera Malik
  6. Are firms willing to employ a greying and feminizing workforce? By Vincent VANDENBERGHE
  7. Relief During the Great Depression in Australia and America By Price V. Fishback
  8. Health Status Determinants in the OECD Countries. A Panel Data Approach with Endogenous Regressors. By Ana Pocas; Elias Soukiazis
  9. The Graying of the Median Voter By Hollanders, D.A.; Koster, F.
  10. Financing needs of nascent entrepreneurs in Chile: does gender matter? By Gianni Romani; Miguel Atienza; Ernesto Amorós
  11. Does consumption decline at retirement? Evidence from repeated cross-section data for Germany By Beznoska, Martin; Steiner, Viktor
  12. Performance of skilled migrants in the U.S. : a dynamic approach By Mattoo, Aaditya; Neagu, Ileana Cristina; Ozden, Caglar
  13. Ethnic Diversity and Team Performance: A Field Experiment By Hoogendoorn, Sander M.; van Praag, Mirjam
  14. Pension coverage in Latin America : trends and determinants By Rofman, Rafael; Oliveri, Maria Laura
  15. Policy perspectives of grandparenting in Europe By Valeria Bordone; Bruno Arpino; Arnstein Aassve
  16. Patterns of household practice: an examination into the relationship between housework and waste separation for households in the United Kingdom By Hazel Pettifor
  17. Do husbands and wives pool their incomes? Experimental evidence. By Miriam Beblo; Denis Beninger
  18. Heterogeneity in the relationship between happiness and age: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel By Gregori Baetschmann
  19. Population, Migration and Labour Supply: Great Britain 1871 - 2011 By Tim Hatton
  20. De Jure and de Facto Determinants of Power: Evidence from Mississippi By Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo
  21. World Bank support for pensions and social security By Dorfman, Mark; Palacios, Robert
  22. Regional dimensions of infant mortality in Brazil By Ana Barufi; Eduardo Haddad; Antonio Paez
  23. Childhood Intelligence and Adult Mortality, and the Role of Socio-Economic Status By Jan S. Cramer
  24. Labor supply on the eve of retirement. Disparate effects of immediate and postponed rewards to working By Christian N. Brinch, Erik Hernæs and Zhiyang Jia

  1. By: Christian Siegel
    Abstract: Increases in female employment and falling fertility rates have often been linked to rising female wages. However, over the last 30 years the US total fertility rate has been fairly stable while female wages have continued to grow. Over the same period, we observe that women's hours spent on housework have declined, but men's have increased. I propose a model with a shrinking gender wage gap that can capture these trends. While rising relative wages tend to increase women's labor supply and, due to higher opportunity cost, lower fertility, they also lead to a partial reallocation of home production from women to men, and a higher use of labor-saving inputs into home production. I find that both these trends are important in understanding why fertility did not decline to even lower levels. As the gender wage gap declines, a father's time at home becomes more important for raising children. When the disutilities from working in the market and at home are imperfect substitutes, fertility can stabilize, after an initial decline, in times of increasing female market labor. That parents can acquire more market inputs into child care is what I find important in matching the timing of fertility. In a mode l extension, I show that the results are robust to intrahousehold bargaining.
    Keywords: Fertility, female labor supply, household production, intrahousehold allocations
    JEL: D13 E24 J13 J22
    Date: 2012–07
  2. By: Lehrer, Evelyn L. (University of Illinois at Chicago); Chen, Yu (University of Illinois at Chicago)
    Abstract: In their pioneering research, Becker, Landes and Michael (1977) found that beyond age 30 there is a positive relationship between women's age at first marriage and marital instability. They interpreted this finding as a "poor-match" effect emerging as the biological clock begins to tick. In analyses of the 2006-2010 National Surveys of Family Growth (NSFG), we find evidence of the existence of this effect: women who delay marriage disproportionately make unconventional matches, which are generally associated with high marital instability (N = 3,184). We also find, however, that their unions are very solid. We develop and test competing hypotheses that can account for these patterns. In addition, noting that women's delayed transition to first marriage has been accompanied by higher proportions of women entering marriage with 16 years of schooling or more, we examine changes across the last three NSFG cycles in the education - marital instability association.
    Keywords: divorce, marital stability, marital instability, marriage, marriage dissolution
    JEL: J12
    Date: 2012–07
  3. By: Cosmin Enache (Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, West University of Timisoara, Romania)
    Abstract: In a period of very low fertility, effective family and childcare support policy measures are needed. From a wide range of instruments available to government intervention, we focus on public expenditures effects on short-term fertility. Using a sample of 28 European countries in a panel framework, we found that there is a small positive elasticity of crude birth rate to cash benefits related to childbirth and childrearing provided through social security system. Different public services provided to ease the burden of parents and all benefits in kind, means or non-means tested, are found to be insignificant. These results are robust to alternative methods of estimation and country heterogeneity.
    Keywords: Social Security, Fertility
    JEL: H55 I38
    Date: 2012–05–02
  4. By: Beatrice Brunner; Andreas Kuhn
    Abstract: We analyze the fertility and health effects resulting from the abolition of the Austrian baby bonus in January 1997. The abolition of the benefit was publicly announced about ten months in advance, creating the opportunity for prospective parents to (re-)schedule conceptions accordingly. We find robust evidence that, within the month before the abolition, about 8% more children were born as a result of (re-)scheduling conceptions. At the same time, there is no evidence that mothers deliberately manipulated the date of birth through medical intervention. We also find a substantial and significant increase in the fraction of birth complications, but no evidence for any resulting adverse effects on newborns' health.
    Keywords: Baby bonus, scheduling of conceptions, timing of births, policy announcement, abolition effect, birth complications, medical intervention
    JEL: H31 J13
    Date: 2011–11
  5. By: Syeda Umme Jakera Malik (Social Work Department, Asian University of Bangladesh (AUB))
    Abstract: Although highly educated women in Bangladesh expect to achieve gender equality, compared to highly educated men, they experience poverty in disproportionate scales. Various educational and motivational programs have been successfully working in Bangladesh. Subsequently, women have broken out the common social problems like illiteracy, early marriage, etc. For example, Bangladesh has already achieved gender parity in education levels. Many women are getting proper family support, achieve higher education, and gain more respect in family life. However, a huge number of highly educated women are not in positions that would allow them to use their education as a capital to fulfill their basic needs, and subsequently, they are leading a life which is at risk of being poor. Professional identity is not only a source of income but also a way of social interaction and social security. This paper aims to explore women’s potential poverty despite being highly educated. Potential poverty is defined as the risk of being poor.
    Keywords: women, highly educated, gender, professional idenity, potential poverty, Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Date: 2012–07
  6. By: Vincent VANDENBERGHE (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), Economics School of Louvain (ESL),)
    Abstract: Are employers willing to employ more older individuals, in particular older women? Higher employment among the older segments of the population will only materialise if firms are willing to employ them. Although several economists have started considering the demand side of the labour market for older individuals, few have considered its gender dimension properly; despite evidence that lifting the overall senior employment rate in the EU requires significantly raising that of women older than 50. In this paper, we posit that labour demand and employability depend to a large extent on how the age/gender composition of the workforce affects firm’s profits. Using unique firm-level panel data we produce robust evidence on the causal effect of age/gender on productivity (value added per worker), total labour costs and gross profits. We take advantage of the panel structure of data and resort to first differences to deal with a potential time-invariant heterogeneity bias. Moreover, inspired by recent developments in the production function estimation literature, we also address the risk of simultaneity bias (endogeneity of firm’s age-gender mix choices in the short run) by combining first differences with i) the structural approach suggested by Ackerberg, Caves & Frazer (2006), ii) alongside more traditional IV-GMM methods (Blundell & Bond, 1998) where lagged values of labour inputs are used as instruments. Results suggest no negative impact of rising shares of older men on firm’s gross profits, but a large negative effect of larger shares of older women. Another interesting result is that the vast and highly feminized services industry does not seem to offer working conditions that mitigate older women’s productivity and employability disadvantage, on the contrary. This is not good news for older women’s employability and calls for policy interventions in the Belgian private economy aimed at combating women’s decline of productivity with age and/or better adapting labour costs to age-gender productivity profiles.
    Keywords: ageing workforce, gender, productivity, profitability, linked employer-employee data, endogeneity and simultaneity bias
    JEL: J11 J14 J21
    Date: 2012–07–18
  7. By: Price V. Fishback
    Abstract: I compare and contrast the relief efforts in response to the extraordinary employment of the Great Depression in the U.S. and Australia. The effectiveness of relief spending in America at the local level is discussed with reference to a series of studies that I have performed with a series of co-authors. To compare the U.S. demographic results with the impact of relief spending in Australia, I develop a panel data set for the Australian states from 1929 through 1939 and then estimate the relationship between relief spending by the states and various demographic measures, including infant mortality, the death rate, the crude birth rate, marriage rates, and the divorce rate.
    Date: 2012–07
  8. By: Ana Pocas; Elias Soukiazis
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of life expectancy as proxy for health status of the OECD countries’ population. A production function of health is used to explain expectancy life at birth for total and ageing population and according to gender. Socio-economic factors, health resources and lifestyles are defined as the main determinants of heath status. The estimation approach assumes that income and education are endogenous and a panel data approach is used to control for this problem. Our evidence shows that income, education and efficiency of health resources of the health system are important factors affecting positively life expectancy and risky lifestyles (tobacco and alcohol consumption) are harmful to health. However there are differences between males and females. Income and lifestyles are the major determinants affecting man’s health while for women education and better use of health services (through consultations) explain mostly life expectancy both at birth and late age.
    Date: 2011–09
  9. By: Hollanders, D.A.; Koster, F. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)
    Abstract: Abstract: Analyzing 30 OECD-countries in 1980-2005, this paper documents the effect of an aging electorate on pension expenditure. The first outcome is that an increase in the age of the median voter leads to less generous pension benefits. The second outcome is that an older median voter is not significantly associated with an increase in pension expenditure relative to GDP. These results do not change when health care costs are considered instead of pension expenditure. The results contradict the main prediction of median voter models that an older median voter will successfully push for higher individual benefits. An alternative specification with the dependency ratio as the operationalization of aging, does show a positive and significant effect of aging on pension expenditure. A positive effect of aging on the generosity of pensions can however also not be found in this case.
    Keywords: aging;retirement;political economy.
    JEL: C23 H55 J18
    Date: 2012
  10. By: Gianni Romani; Miguel Atienza; Ernesto Amorós
    Abstract: Funding is critical during new firms´ creation and the most sources of funding in the early stages of entrepreneurial ventures are informal investors (Family, Friends, the Founding entrepreneurs themselves, and the foolhardy strangers, also known as business angels). Entrepreneurs in the initial stages are the main users of informal financing, more specifically those denominated according to the GEM definition as nascent entrepreneurs; that is, those who are involved in establishing a business or those who have made the leap from the conception of the business to its actual gestation (Reynolds et al., 2005). Informal investment has come to the attention of researchers, mostly in the United States and Europe, and very scarcely in Latin America. Nevertheless, in recent years there has been a call to study entrepreneurship taking in consideration the perspective of gender (Brush, 1992; Bird and Brush, 2002). In Chile, studies of this nature are scarce. For this reason in order to find out more of how the nascent entrepreneurs fund theirs ventures, the main objective of this article is to explore the gender differences that could exist in the financing needs of nascent Chilean entrepreneurs with regard to: Amount needed to start the business; outside financing expectations, employment creations expectations, socio-demographic characteristics, perception related to entrepreneurship. The analysis is based on a representative sample of the Chilean adult population between 18 and 64 years of age, using data from the GEM from the years 2007 and 2008. Since this is an exploratory study, we propose separating the nascent entrepreneurs by gender and using descriptive statistics and Mann–Whitney U test (non-parametric test for two independent samples). The results show that there are significant gender differences among nascent entrepreneurs with respect to the amount needed to start a business, socio-demographic characteristics, and in some aspects related to entrepreneurship. These results provide a better understanding of the financial needs of nascent entrepreneurs and the existent differences between women and men. These results can contribute to a better design of public policies to support new venture creations taking into account a gender perspective.
    Date: 2011–09
  11. By: Beznoska, Martin; Steiner, Viktor
    Abstract: The life-cycle hypothesis implies that consumption would not decline at retirement. However, several studies found relevant declines in food consumption after retirement for the United States. Others concluded that this contradiction of the life-cycle hypothesis is solved by allowing for broader measures of consumption than food. Using repeated crosssection data for Germany, this paper analyzes the retirement consumption puzzle for the German case. For our broadest consumption measure, which includes the flow of durables' consumption, we find, on average, no significant consumption decline at retirement. This also holds if the potential endogeneity of indidual retirement is controlled for in instrumental variable regressions. We also find heterogeneity in retirement effects among birth cohorts, the level of household wealth, and the level of consumption, but these effects do not support the hypothesis that retirement is associated with a strong reduction of consumption among poorer households. --
    JEL: D12 D91 H31 H55
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Mattoo, Aaditya; Neagu, Ileana Cristina; Ozden, Caglar
    Abstract: The initial occupational placements of male immigrants in the United States labor market vary significantly by country of origin even when education and other individual factors are taken into account. Does the heterogeneity persist over time? Using data from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Censuses, this paper finds that the performance of migrants from countries with lower initial occupational placement levels improves at a higher rate compared with that of migrants originating from countries with higher initial performance levels. Nevertheless, the magnitude of convergence suggests that full catch-up is unlikely. The impact of country specific attributes on the immigrants'occupational placement occurs mainly through their effect on initial performance and they lose significance when initial occupational levels are controlled for in the estimation.
    Keywords: Population Policies,International Migration,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement,Human Migrations&Resettlements,Labor Markets
    Date: 2012–07–01
  13. By: Hoogendoorn, Sander M. (University of Amsterdam); van Praag, Mirjam (University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: One of the most salient and relevant dimensions of team heterogeneity is ethnicity. We measure the causal impact of ethnic diversity on the performance of business teams using a randomized field experiment. We follow 550 students who set up 45 real companies as part of their curriculum in an international business program in the Netherlands. We exploit the fact that companies are set up in realistic though similar circumstances and that we, as outside researchers, had the unique opportunity to exogenously vary the ethnic composition of otherwise randomly composed teams. The student population consists of 55% students with a non-Dutch ethnicity from 53 different countries of origin. We find that a moderate level of ethnic diversity has no effect on team performance in terms of business outcomes (sales, profits and profits per share). However, if at least the majority of team members is ethnically diverse, then more ethnic diversity has a positive impact on the performance of teams. In line with theoretical predictions, our data suggest that this positive effect could be related to the more diverse pool of relevant knowledge facilitating (mutual) learning within ethnically diverse teams.
    Keywords: ethnic diversity, team performance, field experiment, entrepreneurship, (mutual) learning
    JEL: J15 L25 C93 L26 M13 D83
    Date: 2012–07
  14. By: Rofman, Rafael; Oliveri, Maria Laura
    Abstract: This document presents an analysis of pension coverage trends in Latin America for the past decades. Its preparation involved the collection, revision, and processing of household surveys in over 18 countries in the region, spanning a period of almost 40 years in some cases. The main goal of this document is to offer comparable data on pension coverage among the economically active population and the elderly, considering the relevance of several demographic, social, and economic variables on these coverage levels. By producing this large and comparable regional dataset, the document supports the discussion of several stylized facts on pension coverage in Latin America. The results show that coverage among active workers is low in most countries, although there has been a relative improvement since the early 1990s. The situation is still distressing among workers in the primary sector or employed by small enterprises as well as for women, primarily because of their persistent lower rates of labor market participation. In recent years coverage of some of the most vulnerable groups has increased, but it still presents very low rates. Among the elderly, regional averages have been very stable since the early 1990s, although this average hides important differences among countries.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Debt Markets,Insurance Law
    Date: 2012–06–01
  15. By: Valeria Bordone; Bruno Arpino; Arnstein Aassve
    Abstract: Large variation exists in the frequency of informal childcare provided by grandparents across Europe. At the same time, a wide North-South divide characterizes European social policies. Do welfare policy arrangements shape the role of grandparents? If yes, to what extent do grandparenting depend on the availability of public services offered for child care, parental leave regulation and legal obligations of family support? Combining micro-data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and macro-indicators from the Multilinks database, this study aims to answer these questions and to further clarify the link between welfare provision and use of grandparents’ resources for working mothers. By implementing country-specific regression models, we find a clear association between the policy context of the country of residence and (daily) grandparenting.
    Keywords: Grandparental childcare, intergenerational relationships, policies, multilinks database
    Date: 2012–06
  16. By: Hazel Pettifor
    Abstract: Although evidence suggests that households are doing more recycling, little is known about waste management practices within the home. How cleaned, sorted materials move from the point of consumption to the point of kerbside collection. Who does the work and in what ways if at all, it is integrated into other similar domestic tasks in the home? In this study I test the hypothesis put forward in two recent studies that as a domestic practice, waste separation is carried out, mostly by women, alongside other similar domestic routines such as food preparation, cooking and washing up. Using data collected between 2009/2010 from Understanding Society, a nationally representative survey of households in the United Kingdom, the association between waste separation and housework is examined for 2,312 men and women, living independently and 3,002 opposite sex, married or cohabiting couples.
    Date: 2012–07–24
  17. By: Miriam Beblo; Denis Beninger
    Abstract: In this paper, we propose a direct test of income pooling within couples, which yields new insight into intra-household bargaining behaviour. For this purpose, we performed a five-round experiment with 95 real, established couples in Germany. In each round, the couples received the same amount of money, though with differing allocations between the spouses, to make consumption choices for private goods. We observed the choices to depend strongly on the spouses’ relative resources for about half the sample and interpret this as a rejection of the income pooling hypothesis. Moreover, non-pooling was positively related with the homogeneity of the spouses’ characteristics (in terms of age, education, working hours) and negatively with their average education and income levels.
    Keywords: Intra-household allocation, Consumption choices, Couple Experiment.
    JEL: C71 C91 C92 D13
    Date: 2012
  18. By: Gregori Baetschmann
    Abstract: This paper studies the evolution of life satisfaction over the life course in Germany. It clarifies the causal interpretation of the econometric model by discussing the choice of control variables and the underidentification between age, cohort and time effects. The empirical part analyzes the distribution of life satisfaction over the life course at the aggregated, subgroup and individual level. To the findings: On average, life satisfaction is mildly decreasing up to age fifty-five followed by a hump shape with a maximum at seventy. The analysis at the lower levels suggests that people differ in their life satisfaction trends, whereas the hump shape after age fifty-five is robust. No important differences between men and women are found. In contrast, education groups differ in their trends: highly educated people become happier over the life cycle, where life satisfaction decreases for less educated people.
    Keywords: Aging, life satisfaction, well-being, happiness methodology
    JEL: C23 I31 D91
    Date: 2011–11
  19. By: Tim Hatton
    Abstract: A country's most important asset is its people. This paper outlines the development of Britain's human resources since the middle of the 19th century. It focuses on four key elements. The first is the demographic transition - the processes through which birth rates and death rates fell, leading to a slowdown in population growth. The second is the geographical reallocation of population through migration. This includes emigration and immigration as well as migration within Britain. The third issue is labour supply: the proportion of the population participating in the labour market and the amount and type of labour supplied. Related to this, the last part of the chapter charts the growth in education and skills of the population and the labour force.
    JEL: J11 J12 J21 J24
    Date: 2012–06
  20. By: Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo
    Abstract: We evaluate the empirical relevance of de facto vs. de jure determinants of political power in the U.S. South between the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century. We apply a variety of estimation techniques to a previously unexploited dataset on voter registration by race covering the counties of Mississippi in 1896, shortly after the introduction of the 1890 voting restrictions encoded in the state constitution. Our results indicate that de jure voting restrictions reduce black registration but that black disfranchisement starts well before 1890 and is more intense where a black majority represents a threat to the de facto power of white elites. Moreover, the effect of race becomes stronger after 1890 suggesting that the de jure barriers may have served the purpose of institutionalizing a de facto condition of disfranchisement.
    Keywords: education; inequality; institutions; race; voting
    JEL: J15 N41 O43 P16
    Date: 2012–07
  21. By: Dorfman, Mark; Palacios, Robert
    Abstract: Pension and social insurance programs that prevent a substantial loss in consumption resulting from old age, disability, or death are an integral part of any social protection system. The dual objectives of such programs are to allow for the prevention of a sharp decline in income when these life-cycle events take place and protection against poverty in old age. This background paper reviews the World Bank's conceptual framework for the analysis of pension programs and defines the major challenges facing low and middle income countries, namely, coverage, adequacy and sustainability. The paper proposes a broad, forward-looking strategy to help address these challenges.
    Keywords: Safety Nets and Transfers,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform
    Date: 2012–03–01
  22. By: Ana Barufi; Eduardo Haddad; Antonio Paez
    Abstract: Development can be understood from many perspectives. Among those, the one proposed by Amartya Sen states that a development policy should aim at expanding the freedom of individuals, and this goal can be achieved by the expansion of capabilities. With this conceptual framework in mind, health, more specifically infant mortality, is chosen as a measure of development and as the object of study. The Government should guarantee the provision of health services, as they consist in meritory goods. Mosley and Chen (1984) propose a theoretical framework to study infant mortality based on the proximal determinants, in which the socioeconomic factors affect the result observed indirectly. In Brazil there has been a substantial reduction of the average levels of infant mortality rates in the last decades. However, there is still a significant regional inequality. Econometric models for 1980, 1991 and 2000 are estimated including a spatial filter in order to account for the spatial dependency observed in the data. The study concludes that health infrastructure lost its explanative power for the differences in infant mortality rate among the localities. On the other hand, socioeconomic variables have become more relevant and significant. It means that future public policies must try to improve the access of the families to public facilities, reduce poverty and inequality and improve educational levels. Therefore, the family-based prevention against health problems should be stimulated, helping to avoid premature death.
    Date: 2011–09
  23. By: Jan S. Cramer (University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: The initial purpose of this study was to establish the effect of childhood conditions on longevity from the Brabant data set. This data set combines information at ages 12, 43, 53 and mortality between 53 and 71 for a sample of some 3000 individuals born around 1940 in the Dutch province of North Brabant. Proportional hazard analysis confirms the known association of early intelligence or cognitive ability with longevity, with a standardized hazard ratio of .80; this is the only significant childhood influence. Among men, the effect of some elements of adult socio-economic status can also be ascertained: education, income and wealth are each found to contribute about as much to a longer life as intelligence. The joint effect of all four variables is dominated by childhood intelligence and adult wealth at the expense of education and income.
    Keywords: Cognitive ability; mortality; socio-economic status; proportional hazards
    JEL: C21 I14
    Date: 2012–07–17
  24. By: Christian N. Brinch, Erik Hernæs and Zhiyang Jia (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: We study two recent changes in incentives to work facing 67-69 year old workers in Norway: an earnings test reform which increases current earnings from work, and a pension system maturation which removes pension accrual from work. Within a difference-in-differences framework, we exploit these changes to investigate the effects of economic incentives. We find the earnings test reform has large effects, while the pension system maturation has no significant effects. The findings confirm that 67-69 year olds can adjust their work efforts to economic incentives, but do so only to thoses related to current income and not to future pensions.
    Keywords: labor supply; retirement earnings test; social security wealth; difference-indifferences
    JEL: J14 H55
    Date: 2012–07

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