|
on Demographic Economics |
|
Issue of 2012‒07‒23
thirty-six papers chosen by Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo University of Montreal and World Bank Group |
| By: | Hippolyte D'Albis (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne); David De La Croix (IRES - Université Catholique de Louvain, CORE - Université Catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | Even in countries where there is a male-biased sex ratio, it is still possible for the marriage market to be balanced if men marry younger women and population is growing. We define a missing Brides Index to reflect the intensity of the possible imbalance at steady state, taking into account the endogeneity of population growth. Taking international data on ages at marriage, fertility rate, and sex ratio at birth, we rank countries according to the Missing Brides Index. |
| Keywords: | Missing women, marriage, fertility. |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00717385&r=dem |
| By: | David SAHN (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International); Christopher HANDY; Peter GLICK |
| Abstract: | We jointly model the determinants of educational attainment, marriage age, and age of first birth among females in Madagascar, explicitly accounting for the endogeneities that arise from modeling these related outcomes simultaneously. An additional year of schooling results in a delay of marriage by 1.6 years. Marrying one year later delays childbearing by 0.5 years. Parental education and wealth also have important effects on schooling, marriage, and childbearing ages. For example, the women's first birth is delayed by 0.75 years for four additional years of schooling of her mother. |
| Keywords: | education, marriage, fertility |
| JEL: | J13 J12 I21 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1373&r=dem |
| By: | Huttunen, Kristiina (Aalto University); Kellokumpu, Jenni (University of Jyväskylä) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of job displacement on fertility using Finnish longitudinal employer-employee data (FLEED) matched to birth records. We distinguish between male and female job losses. We focus on couples where one spouse has lost his/her job due to a plant closure or mass layoff and follow them for several years both before and following the job loss. As a comparison group we use similar couples that were not affected by job displacement. In order to examine the possible channels through which job loss affects fertility we examine also the effect on earnings, employment and divorce. The results show that woman's own job loss decreases fertility mainly for highly educated women. For every 100 displaced females there are approximately 4 less children born. Male job loss has no significant impact on completed fertility. |
| Keywords: | plant closure, employment, earnings, divorce, fertility |
| JEL: | J65 J13 J12 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6707&r=dem |
| By: | Rahim, Fazeer; Tavares, José |
| Abstract: | This paper models gender discrimination in the labor market as originating from bargaining between husbands and wives within the family. The husband-wife household bargains over resource distribution, with each spouse's bargaining power determined by his/her market income. Men are reluctant to grant women easy access to the labor market as, despite the obvious income drag on family income, gender discrimination allows the male to benefit from greater bargaining power. In a model with endogenous savings, fertility, labor force participation, and gender wage discrimination, we demonstrate how economic development, which increases the financial cost of discrimination, gives rise to a positive cycle of greater female participation, lower fertility, and higher income. We use data from the World Value Survey and the International Social Survey Program and show that economic development is negatively related to male preference for discrimination. For low levels of development, a majority of men have discriminatory views; at around annual per capita incomes of 15.000 USD there is a turning point and non-discriminatory men become the majority. We then exploit the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth in the U.S. to examine how men change their discriminatory views over time. Other things equal, men with high-income spouses are more likely to change their views on women toward less discrimination, while the exact opposite holds for men with low-income spouses. Our findings suggest that discriminatory views are indeed endogenous and lose strength over the course of economic development. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development; Female Labor Force Participation; Fertility; Gender Discrimination |
| JEL: | D13 J13 J16 J7 O15 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9045&r=dem |
| By: | Francesca Marchetta (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); David Sahn (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of education and family background on age at marriage, age at first birth, and age at labor market entry for young women in Senegal using a rich individual-level survey conducted in 2003. We use a multiple-equation framework that allows us to account for the endogeneity that arises from the simultaneity of the decisions that we model. Differences in the characteristics of the dependent variable informed the choice of the models that are used to estimate each equation: an ordered probit model is used to analyze the number of completed years of schooling, and a generalized hazard model for the other three decisions. Results show the importance of parental education, especially the father, on years of schooling. We find that each additional year of schooling of a woman with average characteristics delays marriage and the age at first birth by 0.5 and 0.4 years, respectively. Parents' education also reduces the hazard of marriage and age of first birth, while the death of parents has just the opposite effect, with the magnitudes of effects being larger for mothers. Delaying marriage also leads to an increase in the hazard of entering the formal labor market, as does the education and death of the women's parents. |
| Keywords: | Multiple equations; duration models; unobserved heterogeneity; Senegal. |
| Date: | 2012–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00717813&r=dem |
| By: | Frimmel, Wolfgang (University of Linz); Halla, Martin (University of Linz); Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf (University of Linz) |
| Abstract: | Policies to promote marriage are controversial, and it is unclear whether they are successful. To analyze such policies, it is essential to distinguish between a marriage that is created by a marriage-promoting policy (marginal marriage) and a marriage that would have been formed even in the absence of a state intervention (average marriage). In this paper, we exploit the suspension of a cash-on-hand marriage subsidy in Austria to examine the differential behavior of marginal and average marriages. The announcement of this suspension led to an enormous marriage boom (plus 350 percent) among eligible couples that allows us to identify marginal marriages. Applying a difference-in-differences approach, we show that marginal marriages are surprisingly as stable as average marriages, but have fewer children and have them later in marriage. Notably, the children born to marginal marriages are similar in terms of health at birth. |
| Keywords: | marriage-promoting policies, marriage subsidies, marital instability, divorce, fertility |
| JEL: | J12 H24 H53 I38 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6704&r=dem |
| By: | David SAHN (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International); Francesca MARCHETTA (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of education and family background on age at marriage, age at first birth, and age at labor market entry for young women in Senegal using a rich individual-level survey conducted in 2003. We use a multiple-equation framework that allows us to account for the endogeneity that arises from the simultaneity of the decisions that we model. Differences in the characteristics of the dependent variable informed the choice of the models that are used to estimate each equation: an ordered probit model is used to analyze the number of completed years of schooling, and a generalized hazard model for the other three decisions. Results show the importance of parental education, especially the father, on years of schooling. We find that each additional year of schooling of a woman with average characteristics delays marriage and the age at first birth by 0.5 and 0.4 years, respectively. Parents' education also reduces the hazard of marriage and age of first birth, while the death of parents has just the opposite effect, with the magnitudes of effects being larger for mothers. Delaying marriage also leads to an increase in the hazard of entering the formal labor market, as does the education and death of the women's parents. |
| Keywords: | Multiple equations; duration models; unobserved heterogeneity; Senegal. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1372&r=dem |
| By: | Wolfgang Frimmel; Martin Halla; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | Policies to promote marriage are controversial, and it is unclear whether they are successful. To analyze such policies, it is essential to distinguish between a marriage that is created by a marriage-promoting policy (marginal marriage) and a marriage that would have been formed even in the absence of a state intervention (average marriage). In this paper, we exploit the suspension of a cash-on-hand marriage subsidy in Austria to examine the differential behavior of marginal and average marriages. The announcement of this suspension led to an enormous marriage boom (plus 350 percent) among eligible couples that allows us to identify marginal marriages. Applying a difference-in-differences approach, we show that marginal marriages are surprisingly as stable as average marriages, but have fewer children and have them later in marriage. Notably, the children born to marginal marriages are similar in terms of health at birth. |
| Keywords: | Marriage-promoting policies, marriage subsidies, marital instability, divorce, fertility |
| JEL: | J12 H24 H53 I38 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2012_09&r=dem |
| By: | Dirk Bethmann; Michael Kvasnicka |
| Abstract: | Women can bear own children or adopt them. Extending economic theories of fertility, we provide a first theoretical treatment of the demand for adoption. We show that the propensity to adopt a child increases in the degree of own altruism, infertility, relatedness to the child, costs of own child birth, and any adoption-specific monetary return that is received net of the costs of adopting the child. Our model makes several testable predictions which receive empirical support. These include a higher propensity to adopt among infertile adults, relatives, women with high earnings potential, and celebrities. |
| Keywords: | Adoption; demand for adoption; fertility; children; altruism |
| JEL: | J12 J13 D02 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0342&r=dem |
| By: | Dirk Bethmann (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, University of Paderborn); Michael Kvasnicka (Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) |
| Abstract: | Women can bear own children or adopt them. Extending economic theories of fertility, we provide a first theoretical treatment of the demand for adoption. We show that the propensity to adopt a child increases in the degree of own altruism, infertility, relatedness to the child, costs of own child birth, and any adoption-specific monetary return that is received net of the costs of adopting the child. Our model makes several testable predictions which receive empirical support. These include a higher propensity to adopt among infertile adults, relatives, women with high earnings potential, and celebrities. |
| Keywords: | Adoption, Demand for Adoption, Fertility, Children, Altruism |
| JEL: | J12 J13 D02 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mag:wpaper:120015&r=dem |
| By: | Llerena, Freddy |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of Total Fertility Rate in Ecuador on the basis of ENDEMAIN 2004. We find empirical evidence suggests that women who have information about childbirth and pregnancy, contraceptive use, have higher levels of education and work, are more likely to have fewer children. It is evident from the analysis that in Ecuador, the total fertility rate also depends positively on infant mortality. |
| Keywords: | Paridad incompleta; fecundidad; modelos de conteo; micro simulaciones |
| JEL: | J13 J14 I00 C25 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39887&r=dem |
| By: | Husain, Zakir; Ghosh, Saswata; Dutta, Mousumi |
| Abstract: | Literature on family planning considers natural (also called traditional) contraceptives to be ‘ineffective’ because its users are not motivated to control their fertility. While this is true for initial stages of fertility transition, studies have reported that it is women belonging to urban, educated and affluent households - propelled by a reaction against Western technology – who are the main users of natural contraceptives. This elite group has both the skill and knowledge to use such methods effectively. This has led to the coining of the term ‘ultramodern contraception’. This paper critically re-examines the ‘ultramodern contraception’ theory, and argues that it has certain limitations. Analyzing of three rounds of National Family Health Survey data for India, we argue that reliance on such methods may be a transient phase in the reproductive cycle of women, specifically before the desired gender parity of children is attained. Moreover, it is a manifestation of son preference. |
| Keywords: | Contraceptive methods; Gender parity; Son preference; Natural contraception; Multinomial logit; India |
| JEL: | D10 I10 |
| Date: | 2012–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39950&r=dem |
| By: | Gajigo, Ousman; Schwab, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | We analyze the consequences of seasonal variation in maternal consumption on child health using two nationally representative Gambian household surveys. Seasonal fluctuation in consumption stems from difficulties borrowing when incomes are low during the rainy season and saving when they peak after harvest. The resulting fluctuations in maternal nutritional intake can affect birth outcomes and lactational performance. Using mother fixed effects to isolate the effect of birth season, we find that child health—measured by weight-for-age and height-for-age—varies significantly with birth timing. Children in farm households born during dry seasons (February-June) fare considerably worse than siblings born in other seasons. |
| Keywords: | Child, Maternal Health, Consumption, Agriculture, Seasonal, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, I20, I22, O12, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:126343&r=dem |
| By: | Wim Van Lancker; Joris Ghysels; Bea Cantillon |
| Abstract: | Single mothers are vulnerable to living in poverty in contemporary European societies, which translates into economic dependency and threatens women’s capacity to form autonomous households. Given their difficulties to engage in paid employment in a context of increasing dual earnership, the question how to safeguard the economic status of single mothers is a crucial one. In this article we address this issue by focusing on child benefits and exploring their impact on the poverty risk of single mothers in 15 European countries. In doing so, we combine two methodological traditions and devote specific attention to the design of child benefit systems in Europe which adds to the universality versus targeting-debate. We find that child benefits play a major role in complementing the household income of single mothers but that the poverty-reducing impact differs greatly between countries, depending on the generosity and the design of the benefit system. We also find that designing a single mother-friendly child benefit system does not necessarily come at a great cost. Our results demonstrate that a well-designed child benefit system has the potential to play a crucial role in strengthening women’s autonomy. |
| Keywords: | autonomy, child benefits, comparative, poverty, single mothers, universalism |
| JEL: | J16 J18 I3 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:1203&r=dem |
| By: | Kirdar, Murat G.; Dayioglu, Meltem; Koc, Ismet |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of the extension of compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years in Turkey—which substantially increased the grade completion rates not only during the new compulsory years but also during the high school years—on the equality of educational outcomes among various subpopulations. While longer compulsory schooling decreases the educational gap for most subgroups—in particular, the gender gap in rural areas, the ethnic gap among men in both urban and rural areas, and the ethnic gap among women in urban areas; at the same time, it increases the gender gap in urban areas as well as the ethnic gap among women in rural areas. For instance, the gap in the 8th grade completion rate between ethnic Turkish and Kurdish women in rural areas increases from 22.5 to 44.6 percentage points for the 1989 birth-cohort. These findings suggest that the differences among subpopulations in the change in schooling costs (both monetary and psychic) during the new compulsory schooling years, in the costs of non-compliance with the policy, in labor force participation, and in the drop-out behavior in earlier grades are the key underlying factors. |
| Keywords: | Compulsory Schooling; Gender; Ethnicity; Parental Schooling; Regression Discontinuity |
| JEL: | I21 J15 I28 J16 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39995&r=dem |
| By: | Ansgar Belke; Christian Dreger; Richard Ochmann |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between wealth, ageing and saving behaviour of private households by using pooled cross sections of German consumption survey data. Different components of wealth are distinguished, as their impact on the savings rate is not homogeneous. On average, the effect attributed to real estate dominates the other components of wealth. In addition, the savings rate strongly responds to demographic trends. Besides the direct impact of the age structure, an indirect effect arises through the accumulation of wealth. The savings rate does not decrease with age in a monotonic way, as the permanent income hypothesis suggests. Most prominently, older households tend to increase their savings in the second half of their retirement period, probably due to bequest motives and increasing immobility. Given the ongoing demographic trend, an increase of 1.4 percentage points in the aggregated savings rate should be expected over the next two decades. |
| Keywords: | Savings; wealth; demographic change |
| JEL: | G10 G11 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0338&r=dem |
| By: | Laura Leker (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Grégory Ponthière (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Following Ben-Porath (1967), the influence of life expectancy on education has attracted much attention. Whereas existing growth models rely on an education decision made either by the child or by his parent, we revisit the Ben-Porath effect when the education is the outcome of a bargaining between the parent and the child. We develop a three-period OLG model with human capital accumulation and endogenous life expectancy, and show that, as a result of the unequal life horizons faced by parents and children, the Ben-Porath effect depends on the distribution of bargaining power within the family, which in turn affects the long-run dynamics of the economy. Using data on 17 OECD countries (1940-1980), we show that the introduction of intergenerational bargaining on education helps to rationalize the observed education patterns across countries. |
| Keywords: | Education ; Life Expectancy ; Family Bargaining ; OLG Model |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00715104&r=dem |
| By: | de Haan, Monique (University of Amsterdam); Plug, Erik (University of Amsterdam); Rosero, José (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the effect of birth order on human capital development in Ecuador using a large national database together with self-collected survey data. Using family fixed effects models we find significant positive birth order effects; earlier born children stay behind in their human capital development from early childhood to adolescence. Turning to potential mechanisms we find that earlier born children receive less quality time from their mothers than later born children. In addition, they are breastfed shorter. The estimated birth order effects are largest for children in their teens growing up in poor, low educated families. |
| Keywords: | birth order, human capital development, parental time allocation, Ecuador |
| JEL: | D1 I2 J1 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6706&r=dem |
| By: | Roed Larsen, Erling; Solli, Ingeborg (UiS) |
| Abstract: | The relative age effect is an established phenomenon in the literature, but estimates of its strength and duration vary. In order to study the economic magnitude of the effect, we use Norwegian registry data to investigate how birth month affects earnings throughout the full course of life for all Norwegian males born during the period 1940-1949. We examine earnings from 20 to 68 years of age. Our findings suggest that the youngest within a cohort have a relative age disadvantage in early career years that translates into a relative age advantage during late career years. When observing non-discounted life earnings, we find that the two effects cancel out and leave no relative age imprint on life earnings. |
| Keywords: | Birth date effects; life earnings; |
| JEL: | C12 D03 I20 J30 |
| Date: | 2012–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:stavef:2012_010&r=dem |
| By: | Husain, Zakir; Dutta, Mousumi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the hypothesis that contraceptive use of illiterate women having literate partners (proximate literates), may be higher than that of illiterate women whose partners too are illiterates (isolate illiterates) using Demographic Health Survey data for India (2005-2006). Results reveal that the proximate illiteracy effect is significant, though restricted to specific groups; it varies according to contraceptive method; increasing the partner’s education level does not increase strength of the externality effect; literacy of other female household members does not matter; and accounting for self selection into marriage increases strength of externality effect. |
| Keywords: | Contraceptive use; proximate illiteracy; sterilization; India |
| JEL: | D10 C35 I10 |
| Date: | 2012–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39951&r=dem |
| By: | Amanda Glassman, Kate McQueston, and Rachel Silverman |
| Abstract: | Adolescent fertility in low- and middle-income countries presents a severe impediment to development and can lead to school dropout, lost productivity, and the intergenerational transmission of poverty. However, there is debate about whether adolescent pregnancy is a problem in and of itself or merely symptomatic of deeper, ingrained disadvantage. To inform policy choices and create a revised research agenda for population and development, this paper aggregates recent quantitative evidence on the socioeconomic consequences of and methods to reduce of teenage pregnancy in the developing world. The review finds variable results for all indicator types with the partial exception of knowledge-based indicators, which increased in response to almost all evaluating interventions, though it is not clear that such interventions necessarily lead to short- or long term-behavior change. The evidence base supporting the effectiveness of conditional cash transfers was relatively strong in comparison to other interventions. Similarly, programs that lowered barriers to attending school or increased the opportunity cost of school absence are also supported by the literature. On the basis of these findings, the authors argue that donors should adopt a rights-based approach to adolescent fertility and shift their focus from the proximate to distal causes of pregnancy, including human rights abuses, gender inequality, child marriage, and socioeconomic marginalization. Further research should be conducted to strengthen the evidence base by 1) establishing causality, 2) understanding the differential impacts of adolescent fertility in different contexts, and 3) investigating other the impact of adolescent fertility on other socioeconomic outcomes, such as labor participation, productivity, and the intergenerational transmission of poverty |
| Keywords: | Adolescent, Youth, Young Adult, Fertility, Child-Bearing, Education, Schooling, Human Capital, Productivity, Family Planning, Scholarship Program, Cash Transfer, School based intervention, Evidencebased practice. |
| JEL: | D01 D04 D31 D63 I15 I18 I24 I25 J11 J12 J13 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:295&r=dem |
| By: | Carl Schmertmann (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | OBJECTIVE<br> I develop and explain a new method for interpolating detailed fertility schedules from age-group data. The method allows estimation of fertility rates over a fine grid of ages, from either standard or non-standard age groups. Users can calculate detailed schedules directly from the input data, using only elementary arithmetic.<br> <br> METHODS<br> The new method, the calibrated spline (CS) estimator, expands an abridged fertility schedule by finding the smooth curve that minimizes a squared error penalty. The penalty is based both on fit to the available age-group data, and on similarity to patterns of <sub>1</sub>f<sub>x</sub> schedules observed in the Human Fertility Database (HFD) and in the US Census International Database (IDB).<br> <br> RESULTS<br> I compare the CS estimator to two very good alternative methods that require more computation: Beers interpolation and the HFD's splitting protocol. CS replicates known <sub>1</sub>f<sub>x</sub> schedules from <sub>5</sub>f<sub>x</sub> data better than the other two methods, and its interpolated schedules are also smoother.<br> <br> CONCLUSIONS<br> The CS method is an easily computed, flexible, and accurate method for interpolating detailed fertility schedules from age-group data.<br> <br> COMMENTS<br> Data and R programs for replicating this paper’s results are available online at <a target="_blank" href="http://calibrated-spline.schmert.n et">http://calibrated-spline.schmert.net </a> |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-022&r=dem |
| By: | Aedin Doris (Economics,Finance and Accounting National University of Ireland, Maynooth); Donal O'Neill (Economics,Finance and Accounting National University of Ireland,); Olive Sweetman (Economics,Finance and Accounting National University of Ireland,) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data on 9 year old Irish children to examine the determinants of mathematical achievement among young children. We find that boys perform better in maths than girls and that this gender gap is driven by differences at the top of the achievement distribution. While there is no difference between the proportion of boys and girls in the bottom quartile of the maths distribution, boys are significantly over-represented in the top quartile. We exploit the fact that single-sex schooling is widespread in Ireland to test whether the gender composition of schools affects this gender maths gap. Contrary to suggestions in the literature, we find no evidence that single-sex schooling reduces the gap. In fact the maths gap is larger for children educated in single-sex schools than in co-educational schools. |
| JEL: | J24 I2 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:may:mayecw:n224-12.pdf&r=dem |
| By: | Mizuochi, Masaaki |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of Japan's 2005 work-family legislation?the Act on Advancement of Measures to Support Raising Next-Generation Children? on childbirth and women's job continuity. This Act requires firms to support their employees in bearing and rearing children. In particular, it helps working women to continue their careers, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of having children and boosting childbirth. Although the Act requires large firms to support their employees in this regard, it merely recommends that smalland medium-sized firms do so. In consequence, it potentially has greater influence on employees of large firms than on those of small- and medium-sized firms. Using this quasiexperimental condition, we determine the Act's effect by comparing data from before and after its implementation in firms of various sizes. Difference-in-differences estimation results demonstrate that the Act has a positive effect on the joint probability of childbirth and women's job continuity |
| Keywords: | Childbirth, Women’s job continuity, Work-family balance policy, Quasi-experiment |
| JEL: | J13 J18 J22 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:575&r=dem |
| By: | Marga Peeters; Loek Groot |
| Abstract: | On top of the sovereign debt crisis in the European Union, demographic change is exerting enormous pressure on public finances. We analyse four policy options: lowering pension benefits, increasing labour market participation of the native population, immigration and participation of older people. Our results show that the most publically indebted EU economies face the highest increases in public spending on the retiring baby boom generations over the coming decades. Fortunately for these economies, it turns out that adjusting their labour market participation is easier than for their neighbouring economies within the EU. Increasing labour market participation to 60% keeps several countries largely out of the woods. |
| Keywords: | Demography, fiscal policy, labour, ageing, European Union. |
| JEL: | C01 D6 E24 E62 F22 H53 H55 J11 J18 J21 J48 O57 |
| Date: | 2012–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2012_11&r=dem |
| By: | A. Debòn; S. Haberman; F. Montes; Edoardo Otranto |
| Abstract: | The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for projecting mortality rates in the US has been a seminal development and has been widely used since then. Different versions of the model, incorporating constraints on the data, and different adjustment methods have led to improvement. All of these changes have increased the complexity of the model with a corresponding improvement in goodness of fit, however, there is little change in the accuracy of forecasts of life expectancy in comparison with the original Lee-Carter model, according to some authors. To evaluate to what point the increments in the complexity and computational cost of the models are reflected in the forecast of such indices as life expectancy and modal age at death, among others, we have compared three different models - the original Lee-Carter with one parameter and the Lee-Carter model with two temporal parameters forecasted by means of two independent time series or by means of a bivariate one. The three sets of predictions so obtained are compared using a mixture of block-bootstrap techniques and functional data analysis. |
| Keywords: | mortality indicators; block-bootstrap; functional data analysis |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201215&r=dem |
| By: | Richard Akresh; Emilie Bagby; Daien de Walque; Harounan Kazianga |
| Abstract: | Using data collected in rural Burkina Faso, this working paper examines how children's cognitive abilities influence households' decisions to invest in their education. The analysis uses variations in rainfall experienced in utero or early childhood to measure ability. It finds that rainfall shocks experienced in utero have direct negative impacts on a child's education and increase labor hours compared with the child's siblings. |
| Keywords: | Child Labor, Schooling, Child Ability, International |
| JEL: | F Z C |
| Date: | 2012–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:7478&r=dem |
| By: | Robert G. Wood; Sheena McConnell; Quinn Moore; rew Clarkwest; JoAnn Hsueh |
| Abstract: | This article examines the impacts of Building Strong Families, a healthy marriage and relationship skills education program serving unmarried parents who were expecting or had recently had a baby. Results varied across sites, with one site having a pattern of positive effects (but no effect on marriage) and another having numerous negative effects. However, when impacts are averaged across all sites, findings indicate that the program had no overall effects on couples' relationship quality or the likelihood that they remained together or got married. |
| Keywords: | Building Strong Families, Healthy Marriage, Relationship Skills, Unmarried Parents |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2012–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:7321&r=dem |
| By: | Kevin S. Milligan; David A. Wise |
| Abstract: | While longevity increased substantially over the last 50 years and health at older ages has improved, labor force participation at older ages has declined. We use mortality rates as a marker for the “health capacity” to work at older ages in 12 OECD countries. Mortality rates can be compared across countries and over time within the same country. For a given level of mortality, we find employment rates of older men vary substantially through time and across countries. At each mortality rate in 2007, if men in France worked as much as men in the United States, they would work 4.6 years more over ages 55 to 69 than they actually did. Comparing the work and mortality of American men in 2007 to the base year of 1977, the same calculation yields 3.7 years more work. These findings suggest a large increase in the health capacity to work, as measured by mortality. The relationship between cross-country mortality and changes in work over time at older ages is weak, suggesting the take-up of this extra capacity to work has varied. However, the dispersion in employment given mortality is strongly influenced by the retirement incentives inherent in public pension programs. |
| JEL: | J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18229&r=dem |
| By: | Joris Ghysels; Kim Vercammen |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how expansion of the supply of childcare is likely to change the use of childcare services and especially the extent to which the social imbalance in its use is corrected. The empirical case at hand is Flanders, the largest region of Belgium, which has a comparatively speaking large offer of formal childcare slots, but continues to struggle with excess demand and uneven access. The latter is crucial for policy makers. Is rationing to be blamed for the underrepresentation of certain social groups in formal childcare or is an explanation to be found in other circumstances such as poor employment prospects or more traditional family values? In this paper we simulate a simple expansion of the number of formal childcare slots and investigate its consequences, in terms of how this expansion affects the use of both formal and informal childcare, keeping all other circumstances constant. We show that a large increase in use can be expected for those groups that are currently underrepresented in the formal childcare sector, even without a change in the mix of subsidised and non-subsidised service providers and without other contextual changes (e.g. maintaining the small monetary gain from paid employment for low-skilled mothers when making use of formal childcare at its current prices). Yet, we also show that while the social gap is narrowed, the childcare sector cannot be expected to close the gap entirely by itself. Furthermore our estimates suggest that the expansion of formal childcare is likely to result in part-time combinations of formal and informal care, rather than in complete crowding-out of informal care. |
| Keywords: | crowding-out, Formal childcare services, rationing, social distribution |
| JEL: | J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:1202&r=dem |
| By: | Ehing, Daniel; Moog, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Diese Arbeit analysiert die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf das Arbeitsangebot und leitet auf Basis verschiedener Szenarien Politikempfehlungen ab, um dem demografisch bedingten Arbeitskräfterückgang zu begegnen. In einem ersten Schritt werden hierbei Erwerbspersonenprojektion anhand eines Kohorten-Komponenten-Modells vorgenommen und durch verschiedene Modellrechnungen ergänzt. Neben einer Abschätzung der Erwerbspersonenzahl bei einer Erhöhung des effektiven Renteneintrittsalters werden die Konsequenzen eines früheren Erwerbseintritts, einer steigenden Erwerbsbeteiligung der über 60-Jährigen, einer verstärkten Erwerbsbeteiligung von Menschen mit Migrationshintergrund sowie einer erhöhten Erwerbsbeteiligung der Frauen untersucht. In einem zweiten Schritt werden die Effekte einer sinkenden Erwerbslosenquote sowie einer steigenden Arbeitszeit je Erwerbstätigen betrachtet, um so Rückschlüsse über das zukünftige Arbeitsvolumen zu ziehen. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass eine hinreichende Stabilisierung des jährlich geleisteten Arbeitsvolumens möglich ist, so dass bereits geringe Produktivitätssteigerungen dafür ausreichen werden, das Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Einwohner auf dem heutigen Niveau zu stabilisieren. -- |
| JEL: | J11 J21 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:51&r=dem |
| By: | Harttgen, Kenneth (Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit); Opfinger, Matthias (Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit) |
| Abstract: | We construct an index for national identity using information from the World Values Survey on peoples’ attitudes concerning politics and to the state itself. We then analyze the relationship between our new measure of national identity and social heterogeneity. The results indicate that religious diversity is significantly and positively related to national identity, whereas other variables proxying social heterogeneity are not. We argue that national identity is a substitute for religion. At high levels of religious diversity people do not identify with their religious group. They search other objects of identification offering common values and norms. Hence, people identify at the national level. Furthermore, democratic institutions and mobility throughout the country affect national identity positively. |
| Keywords: | Religious Diversity; National Identity; Common Values |
| JEL: | J15 O10 Z12 |
| Date: | 2012–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:aiccon:2012_107&r=dem |
| By: | Peggy Bechara |
| Abstract: | Using German linked employer-employee data this paper investigates the gender wage gap at the time of entering the labour market and its development during workers’ early career. The analysis contributes to the existing research on gender wage differentials among young workers by providing evidence on the impact of women’s disproportionate concentration in lower-paying industries, occupations, establishments and job-cells, i.e. occupations within establishments. The estimation results reveal that all types of segregation and particularly job-cell segregation are significant determinants of the gender wage gap, while skill endowments and differences in work histories are found to be of minor importance. At the time of labour market entry women’s wage disadvantages can almost entirely be explained by the fact that they start their working career in lower-paying occupations and establishments. With progressing labour market experience, however, gender segregation becomes less important and cannot fully account for a slight widening of the wage differential among young men and women. Therefore, part of the early career wage gap remains unexplained. |
| Keywords: | Gender wage gap; early career; labour market segregation |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0352&r=dem |
| By: | Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the empirical relevance of de facto vs. de jure determinants of political power in the U.S. South between the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century. We apply a variety of estimation techniques to a previously unexploited dataset on voter registration by race covering the counties of Mississippi in 1896, shortly after the introduction of the 1890 voting restrictions encoded in the state constitution. Our results indicate that de jure voting restrictions reduce black registration but that black disfranchisement starts well before 1890 and is more intense where a black majority represents a threat to the de facto power of white elites. Moreover, the effect of race becomes stronger after 1890 suggesting that the de jure barriers may have served the purpose of institutionalizing a de facto condition of disfranchisement. |
| Keywords: | race, voting, institutions, education, inequality |
| JEL: | J15 N41 O43 P16 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:084&r=dem |
| By: | Michael Kind; Jan Kleibrink |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of parenthood timing on future wages. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we employ an instrumental variable approach to identify the causal effect of delaying parenthood on wages of mothers and fathers. Consistent with previous studies, we provide evidence for a positive delaying effect on wages. We further study the underlying mechanisms of the wage premium, paying particular attention to the relationship between career stage and fertility timing. We find that delaying parenthood by one additional year during the career implies a wage premium of 7%. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; wage differentials; career path |
| JEL: | J13 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0344&r=dem |
| By: | Stephan Brunow (Institute for Employment Research); Peter Nijkamp (VU University) |
| Abstract: | There is evidence from the literature that firms enjoy higher productivity levels when the workforce employed is culturally more diverse. It is an open question whether this gain is utilized to shift the supply curve and set lower prices, in order to achieve a higher demand and possibly higher revenues. This knowledge gap is not addressed in the existing literature, and forms the departure of our research. We introduce a reduced-form model, inspired by the study of Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) on heterogeneous firms, and add labour productivity by using the approach of Ottaviano and Peri (2005) on cultural diversity. In our empirical study, we employ German data, while the field of research is conducted for single plants, and industry-specific effects are taken into account. Our analysis shows significant positive effects of the cultural diversity of the high-skilled workforce on the market size of single establishments. We conclude that emerging productivity gains are not just paid as dividend or factor rewards but are also used to set lower prices in order to achieve higher demand. |
| Keywords: | cultural diversity, firm heterogeneity, market size |
| JEL: | J15 L11 L25 R12 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nor:wpaper:2012022&r=dem |