nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2012‒06‒25
forty-five papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden in the Endogenous Fertility Setting By Ryo Ishida; Kazumasa Oguro; Junichiro Takahata
  2. A Computable OLG Model for Gender and Growth Policy Analysis By Pierre-Richard Agénor
  3. Employment Protection and Fertility: Evidence from the 1990 Italian Reform By Prifti, Ervin; Vuri, Daniela
  4. Sociability and the Timing of First Marriage By Heizler (Cohen), Odelia; Yacouel, Nira; Kimhi, Ayal
  5. Is it Necessary to Walk the Talk? The Effects of Maternal Experiences and Communication on the Sexual Behavior of Female Adolescents By Averett, Susan L; Estelle, Sarah M.
  6. From Polygyny to Serial Monogamy: A Unified Theory of Marriage Institutions By de la Croix, David; Mariani, Fabio
  7. Female Labour Force Participation and Child Education in India: The Effect of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme By Afridi, Farzana; Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop; Sahoo, Soham
  8. How Well Are Women Represented at the AEA Meeting? A Study of the 1985-2010 Programs By Cunningham, Rosemary; Zavodny, Madeline
  9. Real Wages and the Family: Adjusting Real Wages to Changing Demography in Pre-Modern England By Eric Schneider
  10. Fertility decline in the southeastern Austrian Crown lands. Was there a Hajnal line or a transitional zone? By Peter Teibenbacher
  11. Do Professors Really Perpetuate the Gender Gap in Science? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a French Higher Education Institution By Thomas Breda; Son Thierry Ly
  12. CARE OR CASH? THE EFFECT OF CHILD CARE SUBSIDIES ON STUDENT PERFORMANCE. By Black, Sandra E.; Devereux, Paul J.; Løken, Katrine V.; Salvanes, Kjell G.
  13. Gender, Educational Attainment, and the Impact of Parental Migration on Children Left Behind By Antman, Francisca M.
  14. Externality and Strategic Interaction in the Location Choice of Siblings under Altruism toward Parents By Meliyanni Johar; Shiko Maruyama
  15. Labor Force Participation of Married Women in Turkey: Is There an Added or a Discouraged Worker Effect? By Karaoglan, Deniz; Okten, Cagla
  16. Rethinking Age-Period-Cohort Mortality Trend Models By Daniel Alai; Michael Sherris
  17. Intra-household Competition for Care: The Role of Bequest-regulating Social Norms By Elisabetta Magnani; Garima Verma; Anu Rammohan
  18. Can Long-Term Cohabiting and Marital Unions be Incentivized? By Audrey Light; Yoshiaki Omori
  19. Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Migration and Household Location Choice By Fan, Qin; Klaiber, H. Allen; Fisher-Vanden, Karen
  20. Determinants of Long-Term Unions: Who Survives the “Seven Year Itch”? By Audrey Light; Yoshiaki Omori
  21. "Time Use of Mothers and Fathers in Hard Times: The US Recession of 2007-09" By Gunseli Berik; Ebru Kongar
  22. Pollution, Mortality and Optimal Environmental Policy By Aditya Goenka; Saqib Jafarey; William Pouliot
  23. Poverty and headship in post-apartheid South Africa, 1997-2008 By Michael Rogan
  24. Income Replacement Rates Among Canadian Seniors: The Effect of Widowhood and Divorce By Larochelle-Côté, Sébastien<br/> Myles, John F.<br/> Picot, Garnett
  25. Tall or Taller, Pretty or Prettier: Is Discrimination Absolute or Relative? By Hamermesh, Daniel S.
  26. Child Care Assistance: Are Subsidies or Tax Credits Better? By Gong, Xiaodong; Breunig, Robert
  27. Is it money or brains? The determinants of intra-family decision power By Graziella Bertocchi; Marianna Brunetti; Costanza Torricelli
  28. Does Breastfeeding Support at Work Help Mothers and Employers at the Same Time? By Del Bono, Emilia; Pronzato, Chiara
  29. Is it money or brains? The determinants of intra-family decision power By Graziella Bertocchi; Marianna Brunetti; Costanza Torricelli
  30. Who is deprived ? who feels deprived ? labor deprivation, youth and gender in Morocco By Serajuddin, Umar; Verme, Paolo
  31. Sex Imbalance, Marriage Competition, and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from rural China By Yuan, Yan; Rong, Zhao; Xu, Lihe
  32. Health and Retirement of Older New Zealanders By Emma Gorman; Grant M Scobie; Andy Towers
  33. Bargaining-Power and Biofortification: The Role of Gender in Adoption of Orange Sweet Potato in Uganda By Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kumar, Neha; McNiven, Scott; Meenakshi, J.V.; Quisumbing, Agnes R.
  34. Measuring the Impact of Longevity Risk on Pension Systems: The Case of Italy. By Emilio Bisetti; Carlo A. Favero
  35. Lifetime Earning and Heterogeneity in Retirement Wealth: the Role of Bequests, Minimum Consumption, and Social Security By Fang Yang
  36. Social Security Reform with Impure Intergenerational Altruism By Fang Yang
  37. Discrimination and the Evolution of Cooperation in the Snowdrift Heterogeneous Game with Incomplete Information By André Barreira da Silva Rocha; Annick Laruelle
  38. Effects of Population Density on Smallholder Agricultural Production and Commercialization in Rural Kenya By Muyanga, Milu; Jayne, T.S.
  39. Food Expenditures away from Home by Elderly Households By Yen, Steven T.; Kasteridis, Panagiotis; Riley, John B.
  40. The Impact of Family Income on Child Achievement: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit By Dahl, Gordon B.; Lochner, Lance
  41. Mortality shocks and the human rate of aging By Virginia Zarulli
  42. Retiree Migration: Considerations of Amenity and Health Access Drivers By Karner, Anne M.; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
  43. Dynamics of Disability and Work in Canada By Oguzoglu, Umut
  44. Older Workers' Training Opportunities in Times of Workplace Innovation By Elisabetta Magnani
  45. Do Immigrants Displace Native Workers? Evidence from Matched Panel Data By Martins, Pedro S.; Piracha, Matloob; Varejão, José

  1. By: Ryo Ishida (Policy Research Institute, the Ministry of Finance, Japan); Kazumasa Oguro (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University); Junichiro Takahata (JICA Research Institute)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the possibility of improving the efficiency of child benefit programs in an overlapping generations economy that has endogenous fertility and large government debt levels. We derive the conditions for this improvement using Representative-Consumer and Children-for-Representative-Consumers efficiency criteria in the endogenous fertility setting, as proposed by Michel and Wigniolle (2007). We find that the result crucially depends on the relative amount of accumulated government debt in the economy. When the elasticity of interest rates to child benefit is close to zero and there exists a huge amount of accumulated debt in the economy, financing child benefit programs by issuing debt and using lump-sum tax leads to RC-improvements. This finding is likely to hold in the economies of developed countries that have low fertility rates. We finally provide the implications of these findings on the real economy.
    Keywords: Endogenous fertility, Pareto-efficiency, child benefit, fiscal burden
    JEL: D9 J13 D61
    Date: 2012–01
  2. By: Pierre-Richard Agénor
    Abstract: This paper develops a computable Overlapping Generations (OLG) model for gender and growth policy analysis. The model accounts for human and physical capital accumulation (both public and private), intra- and inter-generational health persistence, fertility choices, and women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, and home production. Bargaining between spouses and gender bias, in the form of discrimination in the work place and mothers' time allocation between daughters and sons, are also accounted for. The model is calibrated for a low-income country and various experiments are conducted, including improved access to infrastructure, an increase in subsidies to child care, and a reduction in gender bias. By focusing on steady-state effects, based on an explicit analytical characterization of the long-run equilibrium, the model provides a practical tool that may help to integrate more systematically interactions between structural policies, gender, and growth.
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Prifti, Ervin (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Vuri, Daniela (University of Rome Tor Vergata)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) on fertility decisions of Italian working women using administrative data. We exploit a reform that introduced in 1990 costs for dismissals unmotivated by a 'fair cause' or 'justified motive' in firms below 15 employees and left firing costs unchanged for bigger firms. We use this quasi-experimental setup to study the hypothesis that increased EPL reduces future job insecurity and positively affects a female worker's proneness to take childbearing decisions. We use a difference in difference (OLS-DID) model to control for possible period-invariant sorting bias and an instrumental variable (IV-DID) model to account for time-varying endogeneity of the treatment status. We find that reduced economic insecurity following a strengthening of the EPL regime has a positive and sizable effect on fertility decisions of Italian working women. This result is robust to a number of checks regarding possible interactions with other policy reforms occurring around 1990, changes in the sample of workers and firms, and use of an alternative set of exclusion restrictions.
    Keywords: fertility, employment protection, difference-in-difference, instrumental variables, policy evaluations
    JEL: J2 J13 J65
    Date: 2012–05
  4. By: Heizler (Cohen), Odelia (Hebrew University, Jerusalem); Yacouel, Nira (Ashkelon College); Kimhi, Ayal (Hebrew University, Jerusalem)
    Abstract: This paper investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the effect of sociability on the age of marriage. Theoretically, a more sociable individual has higher chances of finding a suitable partner for marriage early in life, and hence is expected to marry earlier than an otherwise similar unsociable individual. On the other hand, a more sociable individual can afford to be more selective in choosing a mate and therefore will tend to postpone marriage until the most suitable partner is found. Using a survival model applied to Israeli data, we show that the first effect is dominant for relatively less sociable individuals, whereas the second effect is dominant for relatively more sociable individuals. Hence, people with intermediate levels of sociability will tend to marry earlier. In an era of increasing individualism and decreasing sociability, these results have important implications for marriage rates, fertility, housing markets and financial markets.
    Keywords: social networks, age of marriage
    JEL: J12 D10
    Date: 2012–05
  5. By: Averett, Susan L (Lafayette College); Estelle, Sarah M. (Rhodes College)
    Abstract: Numerous social marketing campaigns exhort parents to talk to their children about sexual abstinence and pregnancy/STD prevention while child-development experts advise parents to initiate discussions about reproductive health and related values at an early age. The efficacy of these marketing campaigns and the precise impact of ongoing dialogue between parents and children are difficult to ascertain, however, if parents are more likely to broach related topics with adolescents with otherwise greater propensities for risky behavior. While extant research recognizes the importance of family environment and parenting activities, little has been done to separately control for the various aspects of parenting that might confound the influence of the marketing campaigns. We separately identify the effects of parenting style, a parent’s own risky behavior, and the parent’s communication about sex on her adolescent’s sexual behavior. OLS models indicate that female adolescents with less strict parents, whose mothers gave birth as teenagers, or whose mothers communicate more about sex are more likely to have sexual intercourse, practice unsafe sex, and engage in casual sex. After controlling for the endogeneity of parental talk, though, we find that an increase in parental talk neither increases nor decreases the probability an adolescent has had sex, unsafe sex, or casual sex. The only exception is a strongly significant result that more communication about sex from mothers who were themselves teen mothers actually increases the probability a daughter has had sex.
    Keywords: sexual intercourse, parental sex talk, unsafe sex, casual sex, teen mother
    JEL: J12
    Date: 2012–05
  6. By: de la Croix, David (Université catholique de Louvain); Mariani, Fabio (Université catholique de Louvain)
    Abstract: Consider an economy populated by males and females, both rich and poor. The society has to choose one of the following marriage institutions: polygyny, strict monogamy, and serial monogamy (divorce and remarriage). After having identified the conditions under which each of these equilibria exists, we show that a rise in the share of rich males can explain a change of regime from polygyny to monogamy. The introduction of serial monogamy follows from a further rise in either the proportion of rich males, or an increase in the proportion of rich females. Strict monogamy is a prerequisite to serial monogamy, as it promotes the upward social mobility of females more than polygyny. We also show that polygyny is compatible with democracy.
    Keywords: marriage, polygyny, monogamy, divorce, human capital, political economy
    JEL: J12 O17 Z13
    Date: 2012–05
  7. By: Afridi, Farzana (Indian Statistical Institute); Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop (Indian Statistical Institute); Sahoo, Soham (Indian Statistical Institute)
    Abstract: We study the impact of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) on children's educational outcomes via women's labour force participation. Using data from the Young Lives Study and taking advantage of the spatial and temporal variation in the intensity of implementation of the NREGS, we find that greater participation of mothers in the program is associated with better educational outcomes of their children. Father's participation in the NREGS, on the other hand, has a negative effect on children's education. Further, the estimated impact of mother's program participation is over and above any income effect induced by the scheme and is robust to concerns about endogeneity of labour force participation and differences in economic trends between districts. We provide evidence which suggests that the mechanism through which children's educational outcomes improve is empowerment of mothers resulting from better labour market opportunities for females.
    Keywords: labour, education, gender, bargaining
    JEL: I21 I38 J16
    Date: 2012–05
  8. By: Cunningham, Rosemary (Agnes Scott College); Zavodny, Madeline (Agnes Scott College)
    Abstract: The proportion female in the economics profession in the U.S. has been low historically compared with other disciplines. Although the percentage of Ph.D. degrees awarded to women and the representation of women on faculties have increased over time, economics still lags many other fields. Previous research has documented gender gaps in tenure, promotion and publication, some of which have narrowed over time. This study examines another aspect of women's representation within the economics profession: their participation in a session at the American Economic Association annual meeting. We examine the gender of participants on the program at the 1985-2010 meetings to determine how women's participation at this important venue has changed over the past 25 years. The results show that women's participation has increased over time, particularly since 2002. However, women appear to be underrepresented on the program relative to other measures of their representation in the profession.
    Keywords: women in economics, economics profession, academic labor market
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2012–05
  9. By: Eric Schneider (History Faculty and Nuffield College, University of Oxford, UK)
    Abstract: This paper uses demographic data drawn from Wrigley et al.’s (1997) family reconstitutions of 26 English parishes to adjust Allen’s (2001) real wages to the changing demography of early modern England. Using parity progression ratios (a fertility measure) and age specific mortality for children and parents, model families are predicted in two reference periods 1650-1700 and 1750-1800. These models yield two levels of interesting results. At the individual family level, we can measure how different families’ real wages changed over the family life cycle as additional children were born. At the aggregate level, we can predict thousands of families using Monte Carlo simulation, creating a realistic distribution of median family real wages in the economy. There are two main findings. First, pregnancy and lactation do not create cyclical effects in the family’s income. Instead, most families’ welfare ratios decline steadily across the family life cycle until children begin to leave the household, increasing the welfare ratios. Second, Allen’s real wages understate or match the median of the predicted demography-adjusted distributions.
    Date: 2012–05–31
  10. By: Peter Teibenbacher
    Abstract: There is a substantial body of literature on the subject of fertility decline in Europe during the first demographic transition. Historical demographic research on this topic started in Western Europe, but, as a result of the discussion of the Hajnal line thesis, the decline in fertility has been more thoroughly explored for Eastern Europe (especially Poland and Hungary) than for areas in between, like Austria. This project and this working paper will seek to close this gap by addressing the question of whether the Austrian Crown lands in the southeast represented not just an administrative, but also a demographic border. Using aggregated data from the political districts, this paper will review the classic research about, as well as the methods and definitions of, fertility decline. Our results show that, even the Crown land level, which was used in the Princeton Fertility Project, is much too high for studying significant regional and systemic differences and patterns of fertility changes and decline. This process is interpreted as a result of economic and social modernization, which brought new challenges, as well as new options. Thus, fertility decline should not be seen as a linear and sequential process, but rather as a process driven by the sometimes paradoxical interdependencies of problems and opportunities faced by families and social groups.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–06
  11. By: Thomas Breda; Son Thierry Ly
    Abstract: Stereotypes, role models played by teachers and social norms influence girls' academic self-concept and push girls to choose humanities rather than science. Do recruiters reinforce this strong selection by discriminating more against girls in more scientific subjects? Using the entrance exam of a French higher education institution (the Ecole Normale Supérieure) as a natural experiment, we show the opposite: discrimination goes in favor of females in more male-connoted subjects (e.g. math, philosophy) and in favor of males in more female-connoted subjects (e.g. literature, biology), inducing a rebalancing of sex ratios between students recruited for a research career in science and humanities majors. We identify discrimination by systematic differences in students' scores between oral tests (non-blind toward gender) and anonymous written tests (blind toward gender). By making comparisons of these oral/written scores differences between different subjects for a given student, we are able to control both for a student's ability in each subject and for her overall ability at oral exams. The mechanisms likely to drive this positive discrimination toward the minority gender are also discussed.
    Keywords: discrimination, gender stereotypes, natural experiment, sex and science
    JEL: I23 J16
    Date: 2012–06
  12. By: Black, Sandra E. (University of Texas at Austin); Devereux, Paul J. (University College Dublin); Løken, Katrine V. (University of Bergen); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: Many countries have implemented childcare subsidies in an effort to help families; in the United States, the government created the Child Care and Development Fund in 1996, which provides public funds for childcare assistance to low-income families. Despite the importance of the issue, little is known about the effect of childcare subsidies on parent and child outcomes. Research in this area has been limited because of the difficulty identifying the causal effect of childcare price on later outcomes; for example, higher childcare prices may be associated with better childcare or wealthier parents, in which case one cannot isolate the effect of price alone on later child outcomes. This paper uses recent data and a novel source of identifying variation--sharp discontinuities in the price of childcare by income in Norway--to identify the effect of childcare subsidies on parental behavior and the later academic achievement of children. There are a number of papers that have examined the effect of childcare subsidies on female labor force participation, with the findings ranging from no effect to significant negative effects (See Blau, 2000, for a summary). More recently, work by Herbst and Tekin (2010b) has examined the effect of childcare subsidies in the United States on children’s academic performance.1 They use a unique identification strategy, applying distance to the nearest social service agency that administers the subsidy application process as an instrument for subsidy receipt. They find small negative effects of subsidy receipt the year before kindergarten on kindergarten performance, although these negative effects have generally disappeared by third grade.2 Our work complements this
    Keywords: Education; income subsidy; child care
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2012–05–30
  13. By: Antman, Francisca M. (University of Colorado, Boulder)
    Abstract: Estimation of the causal effect of parental migration on children's educational attainment is complicated by the fact that migrants and non-migrants are likely to differ in unobservable ways that also affect children's educational outcomes. This paper suggests a novel way of addressing this selection problem by looking within the family to exploit variation in siblings' ages at the time of parental migration. The basic assumption underlying the analysis is that parental migration will have no effect on the educational outcomes of children who are at least 20 because they have already completed their educations. Their younger siblings, in contrast, may still be in school, and thus will be affected by the parental migration experience. The results point to a statistically significant positive effect of paternal U.S. migration on education for girls, suggesting that pushing a father's U.S. migration earlier in his daughter's life can lead to an increase in her educational attainment of up to 1 year relative to delaying migration until after she has turned 20. In contrast, paternal domestic migration has no statistically significant effect on educational attainment for girls or boys, suggesting that father absence does not play a major role in determining children's educational outcomes. Instead, these results suggest that the marginal dollars from U.S. migrant remittances appear to enable families to further educate their daughters. Thus, policymakers should view international migration as a potential pathway by which families raise educational attainments of girls in particular.
    Keywords: migration, father absence, education, gender
    JEL: O15 J12 J13 J16 J24 F22
    Date: 2012–06
  14. By: Meliyanni Johar (Economics Discipline Group and Centre for the Study of Choice, Business School, University of Technology Sydney); Shiko Maruyama (School of Economics and ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: When siblings wish for the wellbeing of their elderly parents, the cost of care giving and long-term commitment creates a free-rider problem among siblings. We estimate a sequential game to investigate externality and strategic interaction among adult siblings regarding their location choice relative to their elderly parents. Using the US Health and Retirement Survey, we find a positive externality and strategic interaction. The first-mover advantage of eldest children and the prisoner's dilemma are likely to exist but their magnitudes are negligible compared with inefficiency in joint utility. Inefficiency is large in a family with an educated, widowed mother and with educated siblings who are younger (relative to parents), married, and similar to each other. Had siblings fully internalized externality and jointly maximized utility sum in 2010, 17% more parents with multiple children would have had a child nearby. Public policies that reduce children's private costs may enhance social welfare.
    Date: 2012–02
  15. By: Karaoglan, Deniz (Middle East Technical University); Okten, Cagla (Bilkent University)
    Abstract: This article analyzes married women's labor supply responses to their husbands' job loss (added worker effect) and worsening of unemployment conditions (discouraged worker effect). We find that married women whose husbands are unemployed or underemployed are more likely to participate in the labor force and work more hours using yearly cross-sectional data from Turkey for the 2000-2010 period. We also construct two year panels based on questions on previous year's labor market outcomes. Panel results provide further support for the added worker effect. Wives whose husbands experience a job loss are more likely to increase their labor force participation. However, a worsening of overall unemployment conditions appears to have a discouraging effect on wives' labor supply response, wives tend to decrease their labor participation when unemployment rate in their region increases.
    Keywords: female labor force participation, added worker effect, Turkey
    JEL: J21 J60
    Date: 2012–06
  16. By: Daniel Alai (ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales); Michael Sherris (School of Risk and Actuarial Studies and ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: Longevity risk arising from uncertain mortality improvement is one of the major risks facing annuity providers and pension funds. In this paper we show how applying trend models from non-life claims reserving to age-period-cohort mortality trends provides new insight in estimating mortality improvement and quantifying its uncertainty. Age, period, and cohort trends are modelled with distinct effects for each age, calendar year, and birth year in a generalized linear models framework. The effects are distinct in the sense that they are not conjoined with age coefficients, borrowing from regression terminology, we denote them as main effects. Mortality models in this framework for age-period, age-cohort, and age-period-cohort effects are assessed using national population mortality data from Norway and Australia to show the relative significance of cohort effects as compared to period effects. Results are compared with the traditional Lee-Carter model. The bilinear period effect in the Lee-Carter model is shown to resemble a main cohort effect in these trend models. However the approach avoids the limitations of the Lee-Carter model when forecasting with the age-cohort trend model.
    Keywords: Mortality Modelling, Age-Period-Cohort Models, Generalized Linear Models, Lee-Carter Models
    JEL: G22 G23 C51 C18
    Date: 2012–05
  17. By: Elisabetta Magnani (School of Economics and ARC Centre for Population Ageing Research, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales); Garima Verma (The Allen Consulting Group, Sydney, and School of Economics, The Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales); Anu Rammohan (Department of Economics, The Business School, University of Western Australia)
    Abstract: We model the allocation of time resources by adult children between competing caring activities - those towards coresiding elderly and those towards coresiding children. We test the implications of our model for children's school performance by focusing on Indonesia, a country characterized by heterogeneity in social norms, population ageing and reliance on the family for elderly support. Specifically, we exploit the unique richness of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) (Wave 2 to Wave 4) to find robust evidence of a negative impact on children's school achievement of social norms regulating elderly bequests to coresiding adult carers.
    Keywords: Intra-household care-giving, children’s education, social norms, co-residence with elderly
    JEL: D1 I2 J2 O1
    Date: 2012–05
  18. By: Audrey Light (Department of Economics, Ohio State University); Yoshiaki Omori (Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University)
    Abstract: In this study, we ask whether economic factors that can be directly manipulated by public policy have important effects on the probability that women experience long-lasting unions. Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we estimate a fivestage sequential choice model for women’s transitions between single with no prior unions, cohabiting, first-married, re-single (divorced or separated), and remarried. We control for expected income tax burdens, AFDC or TANF benefits, Medicaid expenditures, and parameters of state divorce laws, along with an array of demographic, family background, and market factors. We simulate women’s sequences of transitions from age 18 to 48, and use the simulated outcomes to predict the probability that a woman with given characteristics (a) forms a first union by age 24 and maintains the union for at least 12 years, and (b) forms a second union by age 36 and maintains it for at least 12 years. While nonpolicy factors such as race and schooling prove to have important effects on the predicted probabilities of long-term unions, the policy factors have small and/or imprecisely estimated effects; in short, we fail to identify policy mechanisms that could potentially be used to incentivize long-term unions.
    Date: 2012–03
  19. By: Fan, Qin; Klaiber, H. Allen; Fisher-Vanden, Karen
    Abstract: This paper employs a two-stage residential sorting model to examine climate change impacts on residential location choices in the US. The estimated coefficients are used to simulate population changes and US migration patterns across regions under hypothetical changes in climate. The main dataset used for estimation is the Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS), which provides demographic characteristics of approximately 2.4 million households located in 283 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) of the US in the year 2000. Projected climate data (i.e. extreme temperatures) used for simulation are obtained from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). In the estimation component, a two-stage random utility sorting model (RUM) is employed. The first-stage discrete choice model employs a multinomial logit specification to recover heterogeneous parameters associated with MSA specific variables, migration costs, along with the mean indirect utility of each MSA. In particular, the interaction terms of temperature extremes and individual-specific characteristics, such as one’s birth region, age and educational attainment, are used to recover valuations of temperature extremes for different classes of people with potentially different preferences. The second stage of this model decomposes the mean indirect utility obtained from the first stage into its MSA-specific attributes controlling for unobservables using region fixed effects. Migration costs are statistically significant. If migration costs are high, individuals are less likely to relocate for the sake of moderate changes in weather extremes. In the simulation component, the estimated coefficients are used to simulate population changes across regions in the US under hypothetical changes in extreme temperatures. We find that extreme temperature and extreme precipitation reduce utility, and people’s preferences for temperature extremes are heterogeneous. The climate of one’s place of birth and demographic characteristics such as age and educational attainment, are significant factors that lead to preference heterogeneity. In addition, we find that population share in the Southern region and California drop, while population share in Northeastern region increases under hypothetical changes in climate.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Extremes, Tiebout Sorting, Locational Equilibrium, Migration, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q51 and Q54,
    Date: 2012
  20. By: Audrey Light (Department of Economics, Ohio State University); Yoshiaki Omori (Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University)
    Abstract: Most studies of union formation focus on short-term probabilities of marrying, cohabiting, or divorcing in the next year. In this study, we take a long-term perspective by considering probabilities of forming unions by certain ages and maintaining them for at least 8, 12, or even 24 years. We use data for female respondents in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate choice models for multiple stages of the union-forming process. We then use the estimated parameters to simulate each woman’s sequence of union transitions from ages 18-46, and use the simulated outcomes to predict probabilities that women with given characteristics follow a variety of long-term paths. We draw three broad conclusions. First, a representative woman has the same 28% chance of cohabiting or marrying and maintaining the union for 12+ years regardless of whether it is a first union formed by age 22, a first union formed by age 28, or a second union formed by age 34. Second, unions formed via cohabitation contribute significantly to the likelihood of experiencing a long-term union, and this contribution grows over the lifecycle. This finding reflects the fact that the high probability of entering a cohabiting union more than offsets the relatively low probability of maintaining it for the longterm. Third, the likelihood of forming a union and maintaining it for the long-term is highly sensitive to race, but is virtually invariant to factors that can be manipulated by public policy such as divorce laws, welfare benefits, and income tax laws.
    Keywords: Marriage, cohabitation, divorce, long-term unions
    Date: 2012–04
  21. By: Gunseli Berik; Ebru Kongar
    Abstract: The recession precipitated by the US financial crisis of 2007 accelerated the convergence of women's and men's employment rates, as men experienced disproportionate job losses and women's entry into the labor force gathered pace. Using the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data for 2003-10, this study examines whether the recession also occasioned a decline in disparity in unpaid work burdens and provided impetus for overall progress toward equity in the workloads, leisure time, and personal care hours of mothers and fathers. Controlling for the prerecession trends, we find that the recession contributed to the convergence of both paid and unpaid work only during the December 2007-June 2009 period. The combined effect of the recession and the jobless recovery was a move toward equity in the paid work hours of mothers and fathers, a relative increase in the total workload of mothers, and a relative decline in their personal care and leisure time.
    Keywords: Economics of Gender; Unemployment; Time Use; Economic Crises
    JEL: D13 J16 J22 J64
    Date: 2012–06
  22. By: Aditya Goenka; Saqib Jafarey; William Pouliot
    Abstract: We study an overlapping generations economy in which environmental degradation results from economic activity and affects agents' uncertain lifetimes. Life expectancy depends positively on economic activity and negatively on the stock of pollution. This can make the growth-survival relationship convex over some region and lead to two non-trivial steady states, with one is a poverty trap. Uniform abatement taxes can cause the poverty trap to widen while increasing incomes at the high steady state. We also show that the optimal second-best abatement tax is non-homogeneous and increasing in the capital stock, and exhibits a variety of dynamic possibilities: non-existence of a steady state equilibrium, multiplicity of steady state equilibria and optimal policy cycles around some steady states.
    Keywords: Overlapping generations model, poverty traps; non-convexities; multiple steady states; pollution; optimal environmental policy; optimal abatement tax
    JEL: O11 O13 O23 O44
    Date: 2012–05
  23. By: Michael Rogan
    Abstract: In this paper, I investigate the characteristics and poverty status of female- and male-headed households in South Africa using nationally representative household survey data from the October Household Surveys (1997 and 1999) and the General Household Surveys (2004 and 2008). These years (1997-2008) represent a period for which there is an extensive poverty literature documenting (particularly in the 2000s) an overall decrease in the poverty headcount rate. At the same time, however, there is evidence to suggest that female-headed households have a far higher risk of poverty and that the poverty differential between femaleand male-headed households widened over the period. The aim of this paper is to identify some of the main reasons that female-headed households are more vulnerable to poverty in post-apartheid South Africa and why poverty has decreased by more in male-headed households (relative to female-headed households). The study examines the key features which distinguish female- and male-headed households and whether these have changed over time. In order to link these characteristics with the poverty differential between female- and male-headed households, I then examine whether (and by how much) controlling for the observable differences between female- and male-headed households reduces the significantly greater risk of poverty in female-headed households.
    Keywords: Female-headed households; poverty; South Africa
    Date: 2012
  24. By: Larochelle-Côté, Sébastien<br/> Myles, John F.<br/> Picot, Garnett
    Abstract: The financial security of widowed and divorced women during their retirement years has long been a concern. This paper places this issue within the context of research on replacement rates, the extent to which family income during the working years (here, the mid-50s) is "replaced" as individuals move into their late 70s. Using a longitudinal database and fixed-effects econometric models, the paper assesses the effect of widowhood/widowerhood and divorce after age 55 on replacement rates during the retirement years.
    Keywords: Seniors, Labour, Wages, salaries and other earnings, Income, pensions and wealth
    Date: 2012–06–20
  25. By: Hamermesh, Daniel S. (University of Texas at Austin)
    Abstract: Using several microeconomic data sets from the United States and the Netherlands, and the examples of height and beauty, this study examines whether: 1) Absolute or relative differences in a characteristic are what affect labor-market and other outcomes; and 2) The effects of a characteristic change when all agents acquire more of it – become taller or better-looking. Confronted with a choice among individuals, decision-makers respond more to absolute than to relative differences among them. Also, an increase in the mean of a characteristic's distribution does not alter market responses to differences in it.
    Keywords: beauty, height, discrimination, market responses
    JEL: J71 J78
    Date: 2012–05
  26. By: Gong, Xiaodong (NATSEM, University of Canberra); Breunig, Robert (Australian National University)
    Abstract: We evaluate price subsidies and tax credits for child care. We focus on partnered women's labor supply, household income and welfare, demand for formal and informal child care and government expenditure. Using Australian data, we estimate a joint, discrete structural model of labor supply and child care demand. We introduce two methodological innovations: a quantity constraint that total formal and informal child care hours is at least as large as the mother's labor supply and child care explicitly included in the utility function as a proxy for child development. We find that tax credits are better than subsidies in terms of increasing average hours worked and household income. However, tax credits disproportionately benefit wealthier and more educated women. Price subsidies, while less efficient, have positive re-distributional effects.
    Keywords: child care, labor supply, elasticities, discrete choice model
    JEL: C15 C35 J22
    Date: 2012–05
  27. By: Graziella Bertocchi (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, RECent, CEPR, CHILD and IZA); Marianna Brunetti (Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata", CEFIN and CHILD); Costanza Torricelli (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia and CEFIN)
    Abstract: We empirically study the determinants of intra-household decision power with respect to economic and financial choices using a suitable direct measure provided in the 1989-2010 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth. Focusing on a sample of couples, we evaluate the effect of each spouse's characteristics, household characteristics, and background variables. We find that the probability that the wife is in charge is affected by household characteristics such as family size and total income and wealth, but more importantly that it increases with the difference between hers and her husband's characteristics in terms of age, education, and income. The main conclusion is that decision-making power over family economics is not only determined by strictly economic differences, as suggested by previous studies, but also by differences in human capital and experience. Finally, exploiting the time dimension of our dataset, we show that this pattern is increasing over time.
    Keywords: Family economics, intra-household decision power, gender differences
    JEL: J12 D13 E21 G11
    Date: 2012–06–15
  28. By: Del Bono, Emilia (ISER, University of Essex); Pronzato, Chiara (University of Turin)
    Abstract: This paper asks whether the availability of breastfeeding facilities at the workplace helps to reconcile breastfeeding and work commitments. Using data from the 2005 UK Infant Feeding Survey, we model the joint probability to return to work and breastfeeding and analyse its association with the availability of breastfeeding facilities. Our findings indicate that the availability of breastfeeding facilities is associated with a higher probability of breastfeeding and a higher probability to return to work by 4 and 6 months after the birth of the child. The latter effects are only found for women with higher levels of education.
    Keywords: breastfeeding, cognitive development, child outcomes
    JEL: J13 C26
    Date: 2012–06
  29. By: Graziella Bertocchi; Marianna Brunetti; Costanza Torricelli
    Abstract: We empirically study the determinants of intra-household decision power with respect to economic and financial choices using a suitable direct measure provided in the 1989-2010 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth. Focusing on a sample of couples, we evaluate the effect of each spouse's characteristics, household characteristics, and background variables. We find that the probability that the wife is in charge is affected by household characteristics such as family size and total income and wealth, but more importantly that it increases with the difference between hers and her husband's characteristics in terms of age, education, and income. The main conclusion is that decision-making power over family economics is not only determined by strictly economic differences, as suggested by previous studies, but also by differences in human capital and experience. Finally, exploiting the time dimension of our dataset, we show that this pattern is increasing over time.
    Keywords: family economics, intra-household decision power, gender differences
    JEL: J12 D13 E21 G11
    Date: 2012–06
  30. By: Serajuddin, Umar; Verme, Paolo
    Abstract: One of the recurrent explanations of the Arab spring is that governments were disconnected from their populations and that public policies were simply not in line with people's sentiments and expectations. This paper provides a methodology to better understand how objective conditions of deprivation are translated into subjective feelings of deprivation using a strand of the recent literature on relative deprivation. The authors apply this methodology to better understand the question of gender and youth deprivation in the context of the Moroccan labor market. They find that the reference group (the people with whom people compare themselves) plays a pivotal role in understanding how feelings of labor deprivation are generated. This can explain the apparent mismatch between objective conditions and subjective feelings of deprivation related to joblessness among young men and women. The methodology can help us understand why greater discontent may be exhibited by a group of individuals who are in fact less deprived in a material sense. It can also potentially help governments design public policies that address objective conditions of deprivation, such as unemployment, with a better understanding of subjective implications.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Population Policies,Labor Policies,Gender and Development,Housing&Human Habitats
    Date: 2012–06–01
  31. By: Yuan, Yan; Rong, Zhao; Xu, Lihe
    Abstract: It is well acknowledged that the entrepreneurship is important to economic development. In this paper, we suggest a gender-related determinant of entrepreneurship, local sex imbalance. Using a 2009 rural finance survey, we examine how this imbalance influences the venturing at the household level in China. We find that households with a son in more sex-imbalanced villages are more likely to have a business. Further examination reveals that these households have any advantage in borrowing.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, sex ratio, China, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Farm Management, Financial Economics, J1, J2,
    Date: 2012
  32. By: Emma Gorman; Grant M Scobie; Andy Towers (The Treasury)
    Abstract: Increasing life expectancies and uncertainty about future retirement incomes are likely to lead to various changes in behaviour. As expectations are revised, one potentially important adjustment mechanism is in labour force participation rates. There is already evidence these are rising for those beyond the age of eligibility for New Zealand Superannuation. This paper uses a new source of longitudinal data on the health, labour force participation and retirement decisions of older New Zealanders. The central question addressed is the extent to which labour force participation of older New Zealanders is influenced by their health status (both mental and physical), in addition to a wide range of economic, social and demographic variables. Discrete choice models are employed, and particular attention is given to the potential effects of unobserved heterogeneity. We find a range of factors to be associated with the decision to retire, notably health status, marital status and financial incentives. After accounting for the confounding influence of unobservables, we find that physical health remains a determinant of labour force exit for older males. Further, we estimate both the marginal and aggregate effects of specific chronic conditions on labour force participation.
    Keywords: Labour force participation; Health; Retirement; New Zealand; Longitudinal survey
    JEL: J26 J14 J21 I10
    Date: 2012–06
  33. By: Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kumar, Neha; McNiven, Scott; Meenakshi, J.V.; Quisumbing, Agnes R.
    Keywords: gender, technology adoption, biofortification, International Relations/Trade, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, I12, O33, Q16,
    Date: 2012
  34. By: Emilio Bisetti; Carlo A. Favero
    Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of longevity risk on pension systems by combining the prediction based on a Lee-Carter (1992) mortality model with the projected pension payments for different cohorts of retirees. We measure longevity risk by the difference between the upper bound of the total old-age pension expense and its mean estimate. This difference is as high as 4 per cent of annual GDP over the period 2040-2050. The impact of longevity risk is sizeably reduced by the introduction of indexation of retirement age to expected life at retirement. Our evidence speaks in favour of a market for longevity risk and calls for a closer scrutiny of the potential redistributive effects of longevity risk. Keywords: stochastic mortality, longevity risk, social security reform JEL Classification Numbers J11,J14
    Date: 2012
  35. By: Fang Yang
    Abstract: The data show large dispersion in household's wealth holding at retirement. In addition, the empirical correlation between household lifetime earnings and retirement wealth is much lower in the data than in many quantitative models. This paper quantifies and analyzes the implications of a life cycle model with intergenerational links (in the form of voluntary bequest motives and intergenerational transmission of ability) that also explicitly allows for defined benefit pensions, history-dependent social security, and a government-provided minimum consumption floor. The key finding is that this model goes a long way toward matching the observed wealth differences at retirement and their correlation with lifetime incomes.
    Date: 2012
  36. By: Fang Yang
    Abstract: This paper studies the long-run aggregate and welfare effect of eliminating Social Security in a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium life-cycle model where parents and their chidren are linked by voluntary and accidental bequests. Social Security in this model with impure altruism has a smaller effect on capital accumulation than in a pure life-cycle model, a bigger effect than in a model with two-sided altruism. The welfare gain of eliminating Social Security system under impure altruism is smaller than that in a pure life-cycle model, and bigger than that in a model with two-sided altruism.
    Date: 2012
  37. By: André Barreira da Silva Rocha; Annick Laruelle
    Abstract: We study evolution of cooperation in the snowdrift game assuming a heterogeneous population composed of two types of individuals. Each individual plays one of four possible strategies, two discriminating and two non-discriminating ones, where a discriminating strategy is one whose actions played vary according to the opponent type. When all available strategies are played, in contrast to the game played by a homogeneous population, asymptotic stability vanishes. The population evolves to a neutrally stable state and cooperation emerges with the same frequency as in the homogeneous game. Neutral stability persists if a discriminating strategy is not played by the population. If instead a non-discriminating strategy is not played, asymptotic stability can be achieved. One discriminating strategy survives, the other strategies become extinct and co-operation emerges at a different frequency when compared to the homogeneous game.
    Date: 2012–05
  38. By: Muyanga, Milu; Jayne, T.S.
    Abstract: This study analyzes the implications of increasing population density in Kenya’s rural areas on smallholder production and commercialization. Using data from five panel surveys on 1,146 small-scale farms over the 1997-2010 period, we use econometric techniques to determine how increasing rural population density is affecting farm household behavior and its implication to smallholder commercialization. We find that farm productivity and incomes tend to rise with population density up to 600-650 persons per km2; beyond this threshold, rising population density is associated with sharp declines in farm productivity. Currently 14% of Kenya’s rural population resides in areas exceeding this population density. The study concludes by exploring the nature of institutional and policy reforms needed to address these development problems.
    Keywords: Land, population density, smallholder agriculture, food security, policy, Kenya, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics,
    Date: 2012
  39. By: Yen, Steven T.; Kasteridis, Panagiotis; Riley, John B.
    Abstract: This study investigates the differentiated effects of economic and socio-demographic variables on food away from home (FAFH) expenditures by type of facility among elderly households in the United States. Using data from the 2008–2010 Consumer Expenditure Surveys, the systems of expenditures on full-service, fast food, and other restaurants are estimated with a multivariate sample selection estimator which also accommodates heteroscedasticity in the error distribution. Statistical significance of error correlations among equations justifies estimation of the sample selection systems. Income, employment statuses, race, education, geographic region, and household composition are important determinants of FAFH expenditures. Income contributes to full-service and fast-food expenditures by the elderly implying that the future of FAFH industry is tied to macroeconomic conditions. Better education is associated with greater probabilities and larger levels of expenditures at all facilities. Effects of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are found to be strong and negative, invalidating policy concerns for the general population that participation in the program might enhance consumption of less healthy FAFH.
    Keywords: Censoring ⋅ equivalence scale ⋅ elderly ⋅ food away from home ⋅ sample selection system, Consumer/Household Economics, D12, Q13, C31,
    Date: 2012
  40. By: Dahl, Gordon B. (University of California, San Diego); Lochner, Lance (University of Western Ontario)
    Abstract: Past estimates of the effect of family income on child development have often been plagued by endogeneity and measurement error. In this paper, we use an instrumental variables strategy to estimate the causal effect of income on children's math and reading achievement. Our identification derives from the large, non-linear changes in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) over the last two decades. The largest of these changes increased family income by as much as 20%, or approximately $2,100, between 1993 and 1997. Using a panel of roughly 4,500 children matched to their mothers from National Longitudinal Survey of Youth datasets allows us to address problems associated with unobserved heterogeneity, endogenous transitory income shocks, and measurement error in income. Our baseline estimates imply that a $1,000 increase in income raises combined math and reading test scores by 6% of a standard deviation in the short-run. Test gains are larger for children from disadvantaged families and are robust to a variety of alternative specifications.
    Keywords: family income, poverty, educational achievement
    JEL: I2 I3
    Date: 2012–05
  41. By: Virginia Zarulli (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Investigating the effect of mortality shocks on humans is difficult in the absence of laboratory experiments. However, some events in human history serve as natural experiments. Using data for Australian prisoners during WWII and for the Ukrainian Famine in 1933, I analyzed the effect of sudden changes in external conditions on the rate of aging. This may help to decide whether the rate of aging is sensitive to the environment or is stable. The mortality of the prisoners of war was higher during the imprisonment but the slope of the curve did not change. During the Ukrainian Famine, the curves in the years of crisis converged at old ages. By adopting a cohort perspective I found evidence of selection that could be the cause of the convergence. The analysis suggests that sudden and transitory exposure to severe conditions shifts the mortality curve upward proportionally at all ages, leaving the rate of aging unchanged.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–04
  42. By: Karner, Anne M.; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
    Abstract: After a lifetime of working and saving, retirement is a time that an individual can participate in aspirations and activities that were difficult to explore under the constraints of family rearing and full time employment. This newfound freedom allows one to act on her true preferences and alter her lifestyle. One such example is in location decisions. When examining the drivers of migration for retirees versus people still in the work force, one finds that the drivers for the two groups are not synonymous. For those in the labor force, the weight of locational attributes in decision making can be second best to employment opportunities. However, incomes of retirees are often invariant of their location decisions, and their migration decisions are decoupled from job market conditions. Retirees can indulge in specific tastes and preferences such as a preference for natural amenities or access to health care services. This paper examines the question of which attribute is more important when a retiree migrant is deciding between easy medical access versus possibly secluded natural amenities. Retirees appear to consider both attributes, with natural amenities appearing more important drivers of migration decisions.
    Keywords: health care access, migration, natural amenities, retirees, Environmental Economics and Policy, Health Economics and Policy, I11, J11, J18,
    Date: 2012–05
  43. By: Oguzoglu, Umut (University of Manitoba)
    Abstract: Canadian disability policy has come a long way in the past century. However, in contrast with the evidence that disability is not permanent for most, current disability support programs still carry the old static view of permanent disability. By employing a dynamic panel data model of labour force participation, the findings of this paper suggest that labour force exposure is crucial for better return-to-work outcomes for persons with a disability. Without labour force exposure, the effect of a temporary disability is prolonged and participation efforts of the disabled community are slowed down.
    Keywords: disability, labour force participation, dynamic panel data models
    JEL: J14 J21 C23
    Date: 2012–05
  44. By: Elisabetta Magnani (School of Economics and ARC Centre for Population Ageing Research, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: Training (for workers) and innovation (for workplaces) are not free lunches. From the viewpoint of the firm, training is also highly risky, because there is uncertainty over the size of any future returns from employer-provided training. Stylized facts stress that constraints in achieving preferred working hours have major impacts on job satisfaction. Consequently hour constraints may lead to workers' job mobility and older workers' retirement. Firms internalize the risk of workers' mobility by reducing their training investments in these workers. I contrast this model with a signalling model of hour constraints where, in the face of asymmetric information over workers' quality and reliability, and so over profitability of training, workers may trade present hour constraints (at the current wage), for training (and future wage) opportunities. This set of reasoning implies that, empirically, we should observe a positive correlation between training and hour constraints at the individual level. I use two matched employer-employee datasets, for Australia and Canada respectively, to test the competing empirical implications of these two models for the link between hour constraints and training. The main result of this study is that there is little support for hour constraints as a signal of future reliability and productivity. Rather, hour constrained individuals appear to have less chance to receiving training. This result survives a number of robustness exercises that attempt to control for selection on observables and selection on unobservables that determine the hour constraint outcome. Institutional differences in the retirement funding system, and the differential appeal of outside option (the option of exiting the labour force) in Australia and Canada in the two survey years contribute to explain the different patterns of training and hour constraints older workers face in these two countries.
    Keywords: Employer-provided training, hour constraints, older workers, technological change, organizational change
    JEL: J1 J2 J6 O3
    Date: 2012–05
  45. By: Martins, Pedro S. (Queen Mary, University of London); Piracha, Matloob (University of Kent); Varejão, José (University of Porto)
    Abstract: Using matched employer-employee data, we analyse the impact of immigrants on natives' employment in Portugal. Using different model specifications, we show that the natives and immigrants are 'complements' at most occupation levels, in the sense that they are jointly hired and fired. Controlling for different skill-level groups as well as for temporary and permanent jobs, the estimates show that, contrary to the evidence from some existing literature, the natives at the lower end of the skills spectrum are not affected by the presence of immigrants as well.
    Keywords: matched employer-employee data, displacement, immigrants
    JEL: J15 J61
    Date: 2012–06

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