nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2012‒05‒02
twenty papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Missing Daughters, Missing Brides ?. By Hippolyte d'Albis; David de la Croix
  2. Education, Gender, Religion, Politics: What Priorities for Cultural Integration Policies in Switzerland? By Pierre Kohler
  3. Every Man for Himself! Gender, Norms and Survival in Maritime Disasters By Elinder, Mikael; Erixson, Oscar
  4. Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods By Han Lin Shang
  5. Why women are progressive in education?: Gender disparities in human capital, labor markets, and family arrangement in the Philippines By Yamauchi, Futoshi; Tiongco, Marites
  6. Equality of opportunities and fiscal incidence in Cote d'Ivoire By Abras, Ana; Cuesta, Jose; Hoyos, Alejandro; Narayan, Ambar
  7. The contribution of African women to economic growth and development : historical perspectives and policy implications -- Part I : the pre-colonial and colonial periods By Akyeampong, Emmanuel; Fofackm Hippolyte
  8. Overinvestment in Marriage-Specific Capital By Olivier Donni
  9. Engendering agricultural research, development, and extension: By Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; Quisumbing, Agnes; Behrman, Julia; Biermayr-Jenzano, Patricia; Wilde, Vicki; Noordeloos, Marco; Ragasa, Catherine; Beintema, Nienke
  10. Health, Height, Height Shrinkage and SES at Older Ages: Evidence from China By Huang, Wei; Lei, Xiaoyan; Ridder, Geert; Strauss, John; Zhao, Yaohui
  11. The Prospects of the Baby Boomers: Methodological Challenges in Projecting the Lives of an Aging Cohort By Christian Westermeier; Anika Rasner; Markus M. Grabka
  12. Female representation but male rule? Party competition and the political glass ceiling By Folke, Olle; Rickne, Johanna
  13. Taxing Childcare: Effects on Family Labor Supply and Children By Christina Gathmann ; Björn Sass
  14. Gender differences and dynamics in competition: the role of luck By Gill, David; Prowse, Victoria
  15. Demographic Transition and Economic Welfare: The Role of Humanitarian Aid By Pierre-Richard Agénor; Devrim Yilmaz
  16. Family Income Inequality and the Role of Married Females' Earnings in Mexico: 1988-2010 By Raymundo M. Campos Vazquez; Andres Hincapie; Ruben Irvin Rojas-Valdes
  17. Familienbiographische Verläufe im Kohortenvergleich By Joachim R. Frick; Markus M. Grabka; Anika Rasner; Marian Schmitt; Morten Schuth; Christian Westermeier
  18. Family systems and welfare provision in Poland-Lithuania: discrepancies and similarities By Mikolaj Szoltysek
  19. Entwicklung eines Modells zur Bevölkerungsprojektion - Modellrechnungen zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung bis 2060 By Bowles, David; Zuchandke, Andy
  20. Demographics, house prices and mortgage design By Miles, David

  1. By: Hippolyte d'Albis (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); David de la Croix (IRES - Université de Louvain et CORE)
    Abstract: Even in countries where there is a male-biased sex ratio, it is still possible for the marriage market to be balanced if men marry younger women and population is growing. We define a missing Brides Index to reflect the intensity of the possible imbalance at steady state, taking into account the endogeneity of population growth. Taking international data on ages at marriage, fertility rate, and sex ratio at birth, we rank countries according to the Missing Brides Index.
    Keywords: Missing women, marriage, fertility.
    JEL: J12 J13 J16
    Date: 2012–04
  2. By: Pierre Kohler (Graduate Institute of International Studies)
    Abstract: This paper explores cultural integration paths of eight migrant groups in Switzerland. It specifically analyzes the evolution of objective behaviors and subjective attitudes of migrants from the first to the second generation. In order to deepen the analysis, the cultural integration of migrants is further examined from different perspectives: across cohorts (older vs. younger migrants) and across types of couples (individuals in endogamous vs. mixed couples). Gender differences are also paid attention to. First, behaviors are examined by looking at performances of migrants at school (educational attainment and gender gap). As women play a key role in the transmission of cultural traits and the socialization of the second generation, the focus then turns to their position in the couple (marriage, intermarriage, age and education gap between partners, early marriage, cohabitation, fertility, divorce) and in the labor market (labor force participation). Finally, this paper proposes to look at migrants' use of language, their feelings towards Switzerland, as well as their attitudes towards gender, religious and political issues. Evidence points to overall convergence. As the most striking and lasting differences across groups do not pertain to educational achievement, religious or political attitudes but to gender-related attitudes and, even more, to gender-related behaviors in endogamous couples, it appears that migration-related gender issues and migration-specific household dynamics" should be taken into account in the design of future cultural integration policies.
    Keywords: immigration, migration, culture, integration, Switzerland
    JEL: F22 Z10 Z13
    Date: 2012–04–22
  3. By: Elinder, Mikael (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Erixson, Oscar (Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies)
    Abstract: Since the sinking of the Titanic, there has been a widespread belief that the social norm of ‘women and children first’ gives women a survival advantage over men in maritime disasters, and that captains and crew give priority to passengers. We analyze a database of 18 maritime disasters spanning three centuries, covering the fate of over 15,000 individuals of more than 30 nationalities. Our results provide a new picture of maritime disasters. Women have a distinct survival disadvantage compared to men. Captains and crew survive at a significantly higher rate than passengers. We also find that the captain has the power to enforce normative behavior, that the gender gap in survival rates has declined, that women have a larger disadvantage in British shipwrecks, and that there seems to be no association between duration of a disaster and the impact of social norms. Taken together, our findings show that behavior in life-and-death situation is best captured by the expression ‘Every man for himself’.
    Keywords: Social Norms; Disaster; Women and children first; Mortality; High stakes
    JEL: C70 D63 D81 J16
    Date: 2012–04–10
  4. By: Han Lin Shang
    Abstract: Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of Human Fertility Database (2011), we compare the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.
    Keywords: Functional data analysis, functional principal component analysis, forecast accuracy comparison, random walk with drift, random walk, ARIMA model
    JEL: J11 J13 C14
    Date: 2012–04–16
  5. By: Yamauchi, Futoshi; Tiongco, Marites
    Abstract: This paper shows mutually consistent evidence to support female advantage in education and disadvantage in labor markets observed in the Philippines. We set up a model that shows multiple Nash equilibria to explain schooling and labor market behaviors for females and males. Our evidence from unique sibling data of schooling and work history and from the Philippine Labor Force Survey support that family arrangement to tighten commitment between daughters and parents keeps a high level of schooling investments in daughters. Because wage penalty to females in labor markets means that education is relatively important as a determinant of their earnings, parental investments in their daughters' education has larger impacts on the income of their daughters than on their sons. Parents expect larger income shared from better-educated adult daughters. In contrast, males stay in an equilibrium, with low levels of schooling investment and income sharing.
    Keywords: Education, Family, Gender, Labor market,
    Date: 2012
  6. By: Abras, Ana; Cuesta, Jose; Hoyos, Alejandro; Narayan, Ambar
    Abstract: This study analyzes opportunities for children in Cote d'Ivoire, where opportunities refer to access to basic services and goods that improve the likelihood of a child maximizing his or her human potential. The principle that guides this analysis is one of equality of opportunity, which is that a child's circumstances at birth should not determine his or her access to opportunities. The analysis computes the Human Opportunity Index, which measures the extent to which access to basic services is universal and evenly distributed among children of different circumstances. Opportunities are limited in Cote d'Ivoire, despite some improvements in access to electricity and timely access to primary education. Otherwise, trends on access remain stagnant. Scale effects (variations across the board) are behind these trends, with little improvement observed from equalizing interventions. Circumstances such as region and household head characteristics affect a child's access to opportunities, while household incomes and a child's gender and ethnicity play a relatively small role in access differentials. Public spending on education opportunities is shown to be regressive and pro-rich, especially when analyzed across the distribution of circumstances rather than acroos income level.The groups of children that are particularly behind in terms of educational opportunities are those whose household heads lack primary education and reside in rural areas. Closing the enrollment gap of these children should be a priority for targeted educational interventions. However, improving opportunities may require more than a single type of intervention: opportunities with low coverage may need to be scaled up, while those with large inequalities of access may require equalizing interventions.
    Keywords: Primary Education,Population Policies,Disability,Gender and Law,Rural Poverty Reduction
    Date: 2012–04–01
  7. By: Akyeampong, Emmanuel; Fofackm Hippolyte
    Abstract: Bringing together history and economics, this paper presents a historical and processual understanding of women's economic marginalization in Sub-Saharan Africa from the pre-colonial period to the end of colonial rule. It is not that women have not been economically active or productive; it is rather that they have often not been able to claim the proceeds of their labor or have it formally accounted for. The paper focuses on the pre-colonial and colonial periods and outlines three major arguments. First, it discusses the historical processes through which the labor of women was increasingly appropriated even in kinship structures in pre-colonial Africa, utilizing the concepts of"rights in persons"and"wealth in people."Reviewing the processes of production and reproduction, it explains why most slaves in pre-colonial Africa were women and discusses how slavery and slave trade intensified the exploitation of women. Second, it analyzes how the cultivation of cash crops and European missionary constructions of the individual, marriage, and family from the early decades of the 19th century sequestered female labor and made it invisible in the realm of domestic production. Third, it discusses how colonial policies from the late 19th century reinforced the"capture"of female labor and the codification of patriarchy through the nature and operation of the colonial economy and the instrumentality of customary law. The sequel to this paper focuses on the post-colonial period. It examines the continuing relevance and impact of the historical processes this paper discusses on post-colonial economies, and suggests some policy implications.
    Keywords: Anthropology,Gender and Development,Population Policies,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Gender and Law
    Date: 2012–04–01
  8. By: Olivier Donni (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)
    Abstract: We consider the decisions of a married couple in a risky environment. The distribution of spouses bargaining power may change as a consequence of new outside opportunities that are offered to them, so that individual con- sumption may fluctuate over time. This is what we call "bargaining risk". To reduce this risk, the spouses may decide to over-invest in marriage-specific capital (which, by de?nition, is completely lost in the case of divorce) and thereby limit the attractiveness of spouses outside opportunities. This strat- egy is shown to be optimal. More suprisingly, over-investment in marriage- specific capital is still an optimal strategy when spouses are confronted to a (small) risk of divorce. This contrasts with the usual intuition.
    Keywords: Marriage, Investment, Durable Goods, Specific Capital, Risk.
    JEL: D13 D91 J12
    Date: 2012
  9. By: Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; Quisumbing, Agnes; Behrman, Julia; Biermayr-Jenzano, Patricia; Wilde, Vicki; Noordeloos, Marco; Ragasa, Catherine; Beintema, Nienke
    Abstract: Research has shown that women, when given the capital and opportunity, make unique, positive contributions to development outcomes ranging from agricultural productivity to poverty reduction. It comes as little surprise, then, that agricultural research, development, and extension systems are generally more successful when scientists, researchers, and extension agents pay attention to gender issues. However, women continue to be underrepresented and underserved, and their contributions remain mostly untapped in national and international agricultural research. Worldwide, gender roles are culturally defined in all aspects of farming, from control of resources to production and marketing, and these definitions constrain and marginalize women. Even within the agricultural research community, most scientists and extension agents are male.Engendering Agricultural Research, Development, and Extension argues that the paradigm for agricultural and food security development needs to move beyond a focus on production and toward a broader view of agricultural and food systems, one that recognizes women's distinct role in ensuring the food security of their households. Incorporating gender issues into agricultural research and paying attention to gender sensitivity when developing extension systems is necessary to meet the needs and preferences of men and women, satisfy the food needs of future populations, and improve the welfare of the poor.
    Keywords: Gender equity, nonmarket commodities, Agriculture, R&D, Priority setting, value chains, extension services, Agricultural growth and technologies, Gender,
    Date: 2011
  10. By: Huang, Wei (Harvard University); Lei, Xiaoyan (Peking University); Ridder, Geert (University of Southern California); Strauss, John (University of Southern California); Zhao, Yaohui (Peking University)
    Abstract: Adult height, as a marker of childhood health, has recently become a focus in understanding the relationship between childhood health and health outcomes at older ages. However, measured height of the older individuals is contaminated by height shrinkage from aging. Height shrinkage, in turn may be correlated with health conditions and socio-economic status from throughout the life-cycle. In this case it would be problematic to use measured height directly in regressions without considering such an effect. In this paper, we tackle this problem by using upper arm length and lower leg length to estimate a pre-shrinkage height function for a younger population that should not have started their shrinkage. We then use these estimated coefficients to predict pre-shrinkage heights for an older population, for which we also have upper arm and lower leg lengths. We then estimate height shrinkage for this older population and examine the associations between shrinkage and socio-economic status variables. We provide evidence that height shrinkage for both men and women is negatively associated with better current SES and early life conditions and, for women, positively with pre-shrinkage height. We then investigate the relationships between pre-shrinkage height, height shrinkage and a rich set of health outcomes of older respondents, finding that height shrinkage is positively associated with poor health outcomes across a variety of outcomes, with results for older age cognition being especially strong. Indeed height shrinkage is more strongly associated with later life outcomes than is pre-shrinkage height, suggesting that later life conditions are especially important correlates for these outcomes.
    Keywords: height, height shrinkage, health, China
    JEL: D1 I12 J13
    Date: 2012–04
  11. By: Christian Westermeier; Anika Rasner; Markus M. Grabka
    Abstract: In most industrialized countries, the work and family patterns of the baby boomers characterized by more heterogeneous working careers and less stable family lives set them apart from preceding cohorts. Thus, it is of crucial importance to understand how these different work and family lives are linked to the boomers’ prospective material well-being as they retire. This paper presents a new and unique matching-based approach for the projection of the life courses of German baby boomers, called the LAW-Life Projection Model. Basis for the projection are data from 27 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel linked with administrative pension records from the German Statutory Pension In-surance that cover lifecycle pension-relevant earnings. Unlike model-based micro simula-tions that age the data year by year our matching-based projection uses sequences from older birth cohorts to complete the life-courses of statistically similar baby boomers through to retirement. An advantage of this approach is to coherently project the work-life and family trajectories as well as lifecycle earnings. The authors present a benchmark anal-ysis to assess the validity and accuracy of the projection. For this purpose, they cut a signif-icant portion of already lived lives and test different combinations of matching algorithms and donor pool specifications to identify the combination that produces the best fit be-tween previously cut but observed and projected life-course information. Exploiting the advantages of the projected data, the authors compare the returns to education - measured in terms of pension entitlements – across cohorts. The results indicate that within cohorts, differences between individuals with low and high educational attainment increase over time for men and women in East and West Germany. East German boomer women with low educational attainment face the most substantial losses in pension entitlements that put them at a high risk of being poor as they retire.
    Keywords: Forecasting Models, simulation methods, SOEP, baby boomers, education, public pensions
    JEL: C53 H55 I24
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Folke, Olle (Columbia University); Rickne, Johanna (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies)
    Abstract: The share of women in legislative assemblies has grown substantially, but there is still under-representation and it is more severe for more influential appointments. This pattern is mirrored in Swedish municipalities, for which we analyze panel data on the career developments of all 35.000 elected politicians over six election cycles to examine why women fail to rise in the political hierarchy. We show that women have a higher turnover rate which keeps them from accumulating the seniority required to (ever) catch up with their male colleagues. In our analysis, we can rule out that less political experience, lower age, or different responses to changes in family structure are the major contributors to women’s disadvantage. Instead, we find that competition between political parties substantially improves women’s relative performance. We interpret this as evidence for a negative bias against women in the recruitment process being a major contributor to women’s high turnover rate.
    Keywords: Careers in politics; Political competition; Supply of politicians
    JEL: D72 J45
    Date: 2012–04–24
  13. By: Christina Gathmann ; Björn Sass
    Abstract: Previous studies report a wide range of estimates for how female labor supply responds to childcare prices. We shed new light on this question using a reform that raised the prices of public daycare. Parents respond by reducing public daycare and increasing childcare at home. Parents also reduce informal childcare indicating that public daycare and informal childcare are complements. Female labor force participation declines and the response ist strongest for single parents and low-income households. The short-run effects on cognitive and non-cognitive skills are mixed, but negative for girls. Spillover effects on older siblings suggest that the policy affects the whole household, not just targeted family members.
    Keywords: Childcare, Labor supply, Cognitive skills, Family Policy, Germany
    JEL: J13 J22 J18
    Date: 2012
  14. By: Gill, David; Prowse, Victoria
    Abstract: In a real effort experiment with repeated competition we find striking differences in how the work effort of men and women responds to previous wins and losses. For women losing per se is detrimental to productivity, but for men a loss impacts negatively on productivity only when the prize at stake is big enough. Responses to luck are more persistent and explain more of the variation in behavior for women, and account for about half of the gender performance gap in our experiment. Our findings shed new light on why women may be less inclined to pursue competition-intensive careers.
    Keywords: Real effort experiment; Gender differences; Gender gap; Competition aversion; Tournament; Luck; Win; Loss; Competitive outcomes
    JEL: J33 C91 J16
    Date: 2012–01–24
  15. By: Pierre-Richard Agénor; Devrim Yilmaz
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics of public debt in a simple two-period overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with productive public goods. Alternative fiscal rules are defined, with particular attention devoted to the golden rule. Conditions under which multiple equilibria may emerge under that rule are characterized. The analysis is then extended to consider the case of an endogenous risk premium, a generalized golden rule, and network externalities. If network effects are sufficiently strong, an increase in public investment may shift the economy from a low-growth equilibrium to a steady state characterized by both higher public debt ratios and higher output growth. This shift may enhance welfare as well. These results illustrate the importance of preserving the allocation of resources to specific types of public investment, even in a context of fiscal retrenchment.
    Date: 2012
  16. By: Raymundo M. Campos Vazquez (El Colegio de México); Andres Hincapie (Washington University in St. Louis); Ruben Irvin Rojas-Valdes (El Colegio de México)
    Abstract: We study family income inequality in Mexico from 1988 to 2010. The share of married females' income among married couples grew from 13 to 23 percent in the period. However, the correlation of married males' and married females' earnings has been fairly stable at 0.28, one of the highest correlations recorded across countries. We follow Cancian and Reed's (1999) methodology in order to analize whether married females' income equalizes total family income distribution. We investigate several counterfactuals and conclude that the increment in female employment has contributed to a decrease in family income inequality through a rise in married females' labor supply in poor families.
    Keywords: income inequality, female employment, female earnings, Latin America, Mexico
    JEL: J12 J21 J31 O15 O54
    Date: 2012–04
  17. By: Joachim R. Frick; Markus M. Grabka; Anika Rasner; Marian Schmitt; Morten Schuth; Christian Westermeier
    Abstract: In Deutschland werden die Geburtskohorten der 1956 bis 1965 Geborenen als Babyboomer bezeichnet. Diese Gruppe kennzeichnet sich nicht nur durch eine überdurchschnittliche Kohortenstärke aus, sondern diese waren Profiteure des Ausbaus des Wohlfahrtsstaates und deren Kindheit und Jugend: waren durch einen Zeitraum wirtschaftlicher Prosperität und politischer Stabilität als auch durch eine historische Phase des Wandels gesellschaftlicher Werte mit einem sozialen und kulturellen Paradigmenwechsel gekennzeichnet. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Destandardisierung und zunehmende Individualisierung der familienbiographischen Lebensläufe von Babyboomern mit Hilfe eines Kohortenvergleichs zu beschreiben. Auf Basis der SOEP-Daten zeigt sich im Vergleich zu früheren Geburtskohorten dass bestimmte Statusphasen, Ereignisse und Lebenslaufsequenzen nicht länger typisch für die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung (Familie mit Kindern vs. Kinderlosigkeit) sind, als auch eine Variation der zeitlichen Abfolge und des Timings von Lebenslaufsequenzen, die mit einem Anstieg des mittleren Heiratsalters und der Aufschub der Elternschaft verbunden sind. Darüber hinaus nimmt die Zahl der Status über das Alter zu und neue Status entwickeln sich. Des Weiteren werden Unterschiede in den Familienbiographien zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschen beobachtet.
    Keywords: Babyboomer, family life course, SOEP, de-standardization
    JEL: J12 J13 I30
    Date: 2012
  18. By: Mikolaj Szoltysek (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: -
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–04
  19. By: Bowles, David; Zuchandke, Andy
    Abstract: Population projections – especially those of the Federal Statistical Office in Germany – are often used for research questions that depend on the future size and structure of the population. Nevertheless, by using the population projections of the Federal Statistical Office the scope of analysis is limited to the provided dataset with little variation in underlying assumptions possible. Moreover, one does not have full information about the assumptions and methods used. This paper presents a self-developed population projection model and compares the results with the publicly available projections of the Federal Statistical Office. The results reflect a high level of similarity regarding the future size and structure of the German population; observed differences originate from varying assumptions. The developed projection model can be easily applied to different settings (e.g. healthcare, long-term care or education) and features the opportunity to analyze the impact of different components of population change on results in a more flexible way.
    Keywords: Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, Kohorten-Komponenten-Methode, Demografischer Wandel
    JEL: J11 J13
    Date: 2012–04
  20. By: Miles, David (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)
    Abstract: This paper develops a model of the housing market that takes account of population density to assess the impact of population changes on the value and size of the housing stock. The model implies that if population density is on an upward trajectory, rises in population and in incomes increasingly generate price responses and diminishing rises in the stock of housing. This has implications for the optimal structure of housing finance. It amkes equity financing of home purchase more desirable. The properties of hybrid debt-equity contracts for financing house purchase are explored.
    Keywords: demographics; house prices; mortgage design; population density; housing; debt-equity; equity financing
    JEL: J11 R31 R34
    Date: 2012–04–19

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