nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2012‒03‒28
nineteen papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Do Cash Transfers Improve Birth Outcomes? Evidence from Matched Vital Statistics, Social Security and Program Data By Amarante, Veronica; Manacorda, Marco; Miguel, Edward; Vigorito, Andrea
  2. Fertility and the user cost of home ownership: Evidence from regional panel data By XXX, Shuya; Iwata, Shinichiro
  3. Sons or Daughters? Endogenous Sex Preferences and the Reversal of the Gender Educational Gap By Hazan, Moshe; Zoabi, Hosny
  4. Physiology and Development: Why the West is Taller than the Rest By Dalgaard, Carl-Johan; Strulik, Holger
  5. Well-Being in Germany: What Explains the Regional Variation? By Johannes Vatter
  6. The Long-Run Effect of 9/11: Terrorism, Backlash, and the Assimilation of Muslim Immigrants in the West By Gould, Eric D; Klor, Esteban F
  7. Are daughters always the losers in the chore war? Evidence using household and twin data from Vietnam By Tien Manh Vu
  8. Global Warming and the Population Externality By Stuart, Charles; Bohn, Henning
  9. Money Transfer and Birth Weight: A Causal Link from Alaska By Wankyo Chung; Beomsoo Kim
  10. The Mortality of Newborns and Nurse Staffing Levels By Beomsoo Kim; Minjee Kim
  11. Does Air Pollution Matter for Low Birth Weight? By Seonyeong Cho; Choongki Lee; Beomsoo Kim
  12. Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: the modified Lee Arrows By Concepción Patxot; Elisenda Renteria; Miguel Sánchez Romero; Guadalupe Souto
  13. Run For Fun: Intrinsic Motivation and Physical Performance By Filippin, Antonio; van Ours, Jan C
  14. From Motherhood Penalties to Husband Premia: The New Challenge for Gender Equality and Family Policy, Lessons from Norway By Petersen, Trond; Penner, Andrew; Høgnes, Geir
  15. Status, caste, and the time allocation of women in rural India By Mukesh Eswaran; Bharat Ramaswami; Wilima Wadhwa
  16. Child Deprivation, Multidimensional Poverty and Monetary Poverty in Europe By Jonathan Bradshaw; Leonardo Menchini; Yekaterina Chzhen; Gill Main; Bruno Martorano; Chris De Neubourg; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre
  17. Occupational Segregation by Race and Ethnicity in the US: Differences across States By Carlos Gradín; Coral del Río; Olga Alonso-Villar
  18. The vertical transmission of time use choices By Benjamin Volland
  19. Europa, crescita e sostenibilità: "e pluribus unum?" By Luigi Pierfranco Campiglio

  1. By: Amarante, Veronica; Manacorda, Marco; Miguel, Edward; Vigorito, Andrea
    Abstract: There is limited empirical evidence on whether unrestricted cash social assistance to poor pregnant women improves children’s birth outcomes. Using program administrative micro-data matched to longitudinal vital statistics on the universe of births in Uruguay, we estimate that participation in a generous cash transfer program led to a sizeable 15% reduction in the incidence of low birthweight. Improvements in mother nutrition and a fall in labor supply, out-of-wedlock births and mother’s smoking all appear to contribute to the effect. We conclude that, by improving child health, unrestricted unconditional cash transfers may help break the cycle of intergenerational poverty.
    Keywords: birth outcomes; welfare transfers
    JEL: I38 J13 J88
    Date: 2012–01
  2. By: XXX, Shuya; Iwata, Shinichiro
    Abstract: Cross-sectional data yield the interesting result that fertility rates and home ownership rates tend to correlate positively, while time-series data suggest an inverse (or no) relationship between them. Although these associations can be explained by observed economic variables, doubt remains as to whether these links are due to the existence of omitted regional and time effects. Thus, controlling for regional-specific fixed effects and nationwide common time effects, this paper tests the link between the user cost of home ownership, which is the purchase price of housing, and total fertility rates. The empirical results, which use a panel of Japanese regional aggregate data, suggest that the impact of user costs on fertility considerably decreased when compared with the pooled OLS regression result without controlling for the above effects, but remained significantly negative. In the Japanese context, the association between the number of children and home ownership seems to be complementary.
    Keywords: Fertility; Home ownership; User cost; Panel data
    JEL: J13 C23 R21
    Date: 2012–03
  3. By: Hazan, Moshe; Zoabi, Hosny
    Abstract: This paper provides a new explanation for the narrowing and reversal of the gender education gap. It highlights the indirect effect of returns to human capital on parents' preferences for sons and the resulting demand for children and education. We assume that parents maximize the full income of their children and that males have an additional income, independently of their level of education. This additional income has two effects. First, it biases parental preferences towards sons. Second, it implies that females have relative advantage in producing income through education. We show that when the relative returns to human capital are sufficiently low, the bias in parents' preferences towards sons is relatively high, so that parents who have daughters first have more children. Daughters are born to larger families and hence receive less education. As returns to human capital increase, gender differences in producing income diminish, parents' bias towards sons declines, variation in family size falls and the positive correlation between family size and the number of daughters is weakened. When returns to human capital are sufficiently high, the relative advantage of females in education dominates differences in family size, triggering the reversal in gender education gap.
    Keywords: Fertility; Gender Gender Educational Gap; Returns to Human Capital
    JEL: I21 J13 O11
    Date: 2012–03
  4. By: Dalgaard, Carl-Johan; Strulik, Holger
    Abstract: We hypothesize that the timing of the fertility transition is an important determinant of comparative physiological development. In support, we provide a model of long-run growth, which elucidates the links between population size, average body size and income during development. Industrialization is shown to be accompanied by a reduction in family size and an intensi cation of nutrition per child. Early transition countries are therefore expected to be more developed today, economically and physiologically. Empirically, the timing of the fertility transition is strongly correlated with average body size across countries.
    Keywords: unified growth theory, body size, fertility, nutrition
    JEL: O11 I12 J13
    Date: 2012–03
  5. By: Johannes Vatter
    Abstract: This paper examines regional differences in subjective well-being (SWB) in Germany. Inferential statistics indicate a diminishing but still significant gap between East and West Germany, but also differing levels of SWB within both parts. The observed regional pattern of life satisfaction reflects macroeconomic fundamentals, where labor market conditions play a dominant role. Differing levels of GDP and economic growth have contributed rather indirectly to regional well-being such that the years since the German reunification can be considered as a period of joyless growth. In total, approximately half of "satisfaction gap" between East and West Germany can be attributed to differing macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, the effects of unemployment and income differ in size between regions such that one can assume increasing marginal disutility of unemployment. The comparably high levels of life satisfaction in Northern Germany are driven mostly by couples and go along with significantly higher fertility rates. Overall, we conclude that comparisons of SWB within a single country provide valid information.
    Keywords: Subjective well-being, regional disparities, unemployment, economic growth, fertility rate
    JEL: R10 I31
    Date: 2012
  6. By: Gould, Eric D; Klor, Esteban F
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the 9/11 attacks will have a long-term impact by altering the fertility and assimilation rate of immigrants from Muslim countries in the United States. Terror attacks by Islamic groups are likely to induce a backlash against the Muslim community, and therefore, tend to raise the costs of assimilation for Muslims in the West. We test this hypothesis by exploiting variation across states in the number of hate crimes against Muslims in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. Our results show that Muslim immigrants living in states which experienced the sharpest increase in hate crimes also exhibit: (i) greater chances of marrying within their own ethnic group; (ii) higher fertility; (iii) lower female labor force participation; and (iv) lower English proficiency. Importantly, the state-level increase in hate crimes against Muslims after the 9/11 attacks was not correlated with the pre-existing state-level trend in any of these assimilation outcomes. Moreover, we do not find similar effects for any other immigrant group after the 9/11 attacks. Overall, our results show that the backlash induced by the 9/11 attacks increased the ethnic identity and demographic strength of the Muslim immigrant community in the U.S. These findings shed light on the increasing use of terror attacks on Western countries, with the concurrent rise in social and political tensions surrounding the assimilation of Muslim immigrants in several European countries.
    Keywords: Assimilation of Muslim Immigrants; Backlash; Terrorism
    JEL: D74 J12 J13
    Date: 2012–02
  7. By: Tien Manh Vu (Ph.D Candidate, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the gender gap in the division of housework in Vietnam among the household headsf children who are not married and still reside in the family home. We find that in a typical day, a daughter has a higher probability of undertaking some housework and for some 9.66 to 17.94 minutes longer than would an equivalent son. Among siblings in two-child families, a daughter who has a brother has the largest gender gap. However, once we control for differences in genetic endowment, with both twins involved in at least some housework, male?female twins spend approximately the same amount of time on housework. In a mutual decision-making scenario, among siblings in two-child families, an elder daughter would shoulder housework for the other sibling while the reverse holds for younger sisters, but only where the children are 20 years of age or younger. In addition, we find that besides sharing the family total housework load, one minute spent on housework by the mother inspires a 0.0481?0.298 minute increase in the time spent on housework by her daughter.
    Keywords: Housework, Division of housework, Twins, Gender equality
    JEL: J16 J13 J19
    Date: 2012–03
  8. By: Stuart, Charles; Bohn, Henning
    Abstract: We calculate the harm a birth imposes on others when greenhouse gas emissions are a problem and a cap limits emissions damage. This negative population externality, which equals the corrective Pigovian tax on having a child, is substantial in calibrations. In our base case, the Pigovian tax is 21 percent of a parent's lifetime income in steady state and 5 percent of lifetime income immediately after imposition of a cap, per child. The optimal population in steady state, which maximizes utility taking account of the externality, is about one quarter of the population households would choose voluntarily
    Keywords: population externality, Pigovian tax, emissions cap, endogenous fertility, population growth, economic growth, optimal population, calibrated optimal child tax, greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, Economic Theory, Growth and Development, Public Economics
    Date: 2011–04–22
  9. By: Wankyo Chung (School of Business, Hallym University, Chuncheon, Republic of Korea); Beomsoo Kim (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)
    Abstract: Richer and more educated individuals are known to live longer than poorer and less educated ones. This paper employs the first two years distribution of Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend and examines health outcomes of their newborns. The results indicate that income has a significant positive effect on birth weight but that its magnitude is modest. An income shock in the amount of $3,465 increases birth weight by 13 grams, but does not show any significant impact on low birth weight. We find substantially decreased female labor supply among pregnant women but no significant response of prenatal care.
    Keywords: Birth Weight, Income, Labor Supply
    JEL: I12 I18
    Date: 2012
  10. By: Beomsoo Kim (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Minjee Kim
    Abstract: This study analyzed the effect of nurse/patient ratio on health outcomes, as measured by death, by measuring the impact of weekend births when nurse staffing is low. Methods. The 2002 Linked Birth/Infant Death Detail Data of the National Center for Health Statistics was used for analysis. The sample was restricted to vaginal births without induction and stimulation. We found lower number of births during weekends, which may mean that women having children at these times might have more urgent or difficult births, and that these variables were unaccounted for in the data. We used birth weight as a proxy measure of unobserved health condition at birth when we performed the regression on death within a certain number of days after birth.
    Date: 2012
  11. By: Seonyeong Cho; Choongki Lee; Beomsoo Kim (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)
    Abstract: There is growing concern that air pollution may impact the health of newborns. This study examines this issue by considering overtime variation generated by exogenous changes in the pollution level in Korea in early 2000, when some part of Korea experienced huge drop in air pollution. We matched the census of all births from 1998 to 2008 and air pollution data in mother¡¯s residence county level. For air pollutants, we considered carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and ozone levels. The mother¡¯s exposure to one ozone level above 0.12 ppm per hour during the first trimester increased the probability of low birth weight by 0.4 percentage point (0.08% of the sample mean). On the other hand, the mother¡¯s exposure to carbon monoxide or sulfur dioxide during the third trimester led to a significant but modest increase in the probability of low birth weight. The results indicate that the effects of an air pollutant on the probability of low birth weight vary according to wh en the mother is exposed to the pollutant during the pregnancy.
    Keywords: Air Pollution, Ozone, Carbon Monoxide, Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, Low Birth Weight
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Concepción Patxot; Elisenda Renteria; Miguel Sánchez Romero (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Guadalupe Souto
    Abstract: In this paper we propose a way to measure the degree of government intervention on forward –from parents to children– and backward –from adult children to elderly parents– intergenerational family transfers (IFT). We carry out a discussion about the possibility of using Generational Accounts (GA) and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodologies to generate indicators that could measure government intervention on both sides of IFT. As a result, we propose a modification of arrow diagrams used by Lee (1994b). An illustration of the results in the Spanish case indicates that the degree of government intervention on backward IFT is above that on forward IFT. This could be one of the main reasons to explain the Spanish low fertility rate.
    Keywords: Spain, ageing, economic demography
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–03
  13. By: Filippin, Antonio; van Ours, Jan C
    Abstract: We use data from the 24-hours Belluno run which has the unique characteristic that participants are affiliated with teams and run for an hour. This allows us not only to study the individual relationship between age and performance but also to study group dynamics in terms of accessions to and separations from teams in a manner that closely resembles workers and firms when individual productivity would have been perfectly observable. From our analysis we conclude that individual performance goes down with age, although the speed-age gradient is rather flat. Group performance goes down with age as well, but interestingly a counterbalancing force emerges, namely team dynamics that are driven by performance of runners who enter and leave.
    Keywords: Age; Attrition; Intrinsic motivation; Performance
    JEL: J14 J24 J31
    Date: 2012–03
  14. By: Petersen, Trond; Penner, Andrew; Høgnes, Geir
    Abstract: A key obstacle to workplace gender equality are the processes that occur in the family, and thus a target of family policies. We examine how family status affects the gender wage gap using longitudinal matched employer-employee data from Norway, 1979-1996, a period with extensive expansion of family policies. The motherhood penalty dropped dramatically from 1979 to 1996. Among men the premia for marriage and fatherhood remained constant. In 1979, the wage gap was primarily due to the motherhood penalty, by 1996 it was primarily due to husband premia and the penalty to being female irrespective of family situation.
    Keywords: Sociology and Anthropology, gender, family, public policy, inequalities, stratification
    Date: 2012–03–05
  15. By: Mukesh Eswaran (University of British Columbia); Bharat Ramaswami (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi); Wilima Wadhwa (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)
    Abstract: We argue that women may be disinclined to participate in market work in the rural areas of India because of family status concerns in a culture that stigmatizes market work by married women. We set out a theoretical framework that offers predictions regarding the effects of caste-based status concerns on the time allocation of women. We then use the all-India National Sample Survey data for the year 2004-05 and the Time Use Survey for six states of India for the year 1998-99 to empirically test these hypotheses. After controlling for a host of correlates, we find that the ratio of women's market work to men's declines as we move up the caste hierarchy. This ratio falls as family wealth rises and the decline is steeper for the higher castes. These findings lend support to our theory and to the view that, through its emphasis on family status, caste plays a pivotal role in undermining the autonomy of women. Our paper has implications for how culture impinges on the rate at which poverty in developing countries can be reduced.
    Keywords: Status, caste, time allocation, poverty
    JEL: O12 J22
    Date: 2011–09
  16. By: Jonathan Bradshaw; Leonardo Menchini; Yekaterina Chzhen; Gill Main; Bruno Martorano; Chris De Neubourg; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre
    Abstract: The paper focuses on child deprivation inchild well Europe and studies the degree to which it is experienced by children in 29 countries using a child specific deprivation scale. The paper discusses the construction of a child deprivation scale and estimates a European Child Deprivation Index for the 29 countries using 14 specific child related variables made available by the child module of the EU-SILC 2009 survey. The 29 countries are ranked according to the degree of child deprivation: the results show considerable differences between the countries. The (non-)overlap between child deprivation and child monetary poverty is considerable but limited. In general the results indicate where policy interventions can produce improvements.
    Keywords: child well-being; household surveys; income; poverty;
    JEL: D1 H0
    Date: 2012
  17. By: Carlos Gradín; Coral del Río; Olga Alonso-Villar
    Abstract: Using the 2005–2007 American Community Survey, this paper analyzes the extent of geographical disparities in occupational segregation by race and ethnicity across the United States. Although the unconditional analysis shows great geographical variation in segregation, with the largest levels in the Southwest, the analysis of segregation conditioned on the distribution of characteristics reveals that segregation of workers with similar characteristics is generally greater in the East Central region. To quantify conditional segregation, this paper adapts a propensity score technique that simultaneously controls for several characteristics, allowing the identification of the factors that explain the geographical variation of unconditional segregation.
    Keywords: occupational segregation; race; ethnicity; states; United States
    JEL: J15 J71 D63
    Date: 2011–11
  18. By: Benjamin Volland
    Abstract: The present paper analyzes intergenerational correlations in leisure time use between parents and their adult children in order to gain an understanding of the importance of genetics and early childhood learning mechanisms in preference formation. Data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) is used to regress time use choices of children on the behavior of their parents after the former have left to form their own household. A principal component analysis on eight time use items reveals two identifiable components, associated with personal leisure time use outside the home, and voluntary work. Estimations find substantial and significant correlations for both components, but suggest that the variance in filial behavior explained by the variance in parental behavior is limited, ranging from 17% to 32% for personal leisure time use, and from 2% to 7% for voluntary work. Moreover we provide evidence that direct transmission of parental preferences to their children accounts for roughly 20% of the observable similarity between the two generations. These results are robust to a wide array of robustness checks, including changes in estimation technique, model specification, and data restrictions, and suggest that these correlations can be ascribed to preference transmission from parental to filial generation rather than to coordination between generations. Aside from adding to the growing economic literature on preference transmission models, it also provides empirical support for the strong impact of non-parental sources of preferences formation, voiced particularly in models of dual inheritance.
    Keywords: intergenerational transmission of preferences, preference dynamics, time use, relative importance
    JEL: J13 J22
    Date: 2012–03–20
  19. By: Luigi Pierfranco Campiglio (DISCE, Università Cattolica)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to argue that peace among the European countries represents the fundamental common good promoted by economic integration, for which solidarity and willingness to pay are required; however, there are structural problems able to slow the process of European integration. The central problem is an uneasy coexistence of the very different demographic structures of the populations and businesses across European countries; the answer to this imbalance has been a policy of wage flexibility, with a deflationary impact, instead of a European fiscal policy. The mobility of workers with non-European nationality has been much greater than that of European citizens, which is an obstacle to the sustainability of the convergence process. The economic consequences of immigration from outside Europe are positive for economic growth if the labor demand regards higher levels of education and qualification, and are negative if the labor demand is for low levels of education and qualification, with wages lower than average. Italy and Spain fall into this second category: in Italy labor productivity is decreasing per hour worked and relative to years of education, as is the relationship between production and capital stock. We demonstrate the existence of a structural inflationary gap between all the euro area countries and Germany, the country with the lowest inflation rate; this imbalance is not sustainable in the medium term. It reflects an imbalance in business demographics, particularly in countries where employment is higher in micro-enterprises, and Italy is the country with the highest proportion of firms in "class zero". Economic growth in the euro area and Europe depends on the development of medium-sized enterprises, as well as the consolidation of large firms. Per capita GDP is positively influenced by the share of exported goods incorporating high technology and value added, and increased investment by firms in Italy and abroad can increase competitiveness and employment. We show however that the stock of inward Foreign Direct Investments tend to be related with those outward, for most advanced countries.
    Keywords: cross-country output convergence, immigrants, price level, inflation
    JEL: J15 E31
    Date: 2012–02

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