nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2012‒02‒27
25 papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. New cohort fertility forecasts for the developed world By Mikko Myrskylä; Joshua R. Goldstein; Yen-hsin Alice Cheng
  2. Effects of birth order and sibling sex composition on human capital investment in children in India By Makino, Momoe
  3. Islamic inheritance law, son preference and fertility behavior of Muslim couples in Indonesia By Carranza, Eliana
  4. Citizenship, Fertility and Parental Investment By Ciro Avitabile; Irma Clots-Figueras; Paolo Masella
  5. What are the factors of the gap between desired and actual fertility? - A comparative study of four developed countries By Tomo Nishimura
  6. Celebrating 150 Years of Analyzing Fertility Trends in Germany By Kendzia, Michael J.; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  7. 出生率の決定要因に関する実証分析 By 川瀬, 晃弘
  8. The Effects of Gender Quotas in Latin American National Elections By Kotsadam, Andreas; Nerman, Måns
  9. Gender Gaps in PISA Test Scores: The Impact of Social Norms and the Mother's Transmission of Role Attitudes By González de San Román, Ainara; de la Rica, Sara
  10. Rainfall shocks, parental behavior and breastfeeding: evidence from rural Vietnam By Thuan Q. Thai; Mikko Myrskylä
  11. Child labor, schooling and household wealth in African rural area: luxury axiom or wealth paradox By KOISSY KPEIN Sandrine
  12. Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement:does population aging necessarily undermine economic prosperity? By Klaus Prettner; David Canning
  13. Age and gender composition of the workforce, productivity and profits: Evidence from a new type of data for German enterprises By Christian Pfeifer; Joachim Wagner
  14. Intergenerational effect of schooling and childhood overweight By Nakamura, R.;
  15. Do Female Representatives Adhere More Closely to Citizens’ Preferences Than Male Representatives? By David Stadelmann; Marco Portmann; Reiner Eichenberger
  16. Lifespan variation by occupational class: compression or stagnation over time? By Alyson A. van Raalte; Pekka Martikainen; Mikko Myrskylä
  17. A Three-Decade “Kuhnian” History of the Antebellum Puzzle: Explaining the shrinking of the US population at the onset of modern economic growth By Komlos, John
  18. Migration-induced Transfers of Norms. The case of Female Political Empowerment By Elisabetta LODIGIANI; Sara SALOMONE
  19. Soil endowments, production technologies and missing women in India By Carranza, Eliana
  20. To work or not to work? The effct of child-care subsidies on the labour supply of parents By Tuomas Kosonen
  21. The Labour Market Integration of Immigrants and Their Children in Switzerland By Thomas Liebig; Sebastian Kohls; Karolin Krause
  22. Family, money, and health: regional differences in the determinants of life cycle life satisfaction By Rachel Margolis; Mikko Myrskylä
  23. The Principle of Population for the 21st Century: The Never Coming Stationary State By Martin Machay
  24. Human Smuggling By Friebel, Guido; Guriev, Sergei
  25. The Finnish payroll tax cut experiment revisited By Ossi Korkeamäki

  1. By: Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Joshua R. Goldstein (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Yen-hsin Alice Cheng (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The 1970s worries of the "population bomb" were replaced in the 1990s with concerns of population aging driven by falling birth rates. Across the developed world, the nearly universally-used fertility indicator, the period total fertility rate, fell well below two children per woman. However, declines in period fertility have largely been an artifact of later – but not necessarily less – childbearing. We produce new estimates of the actual number of children women have over their lifetimes – cohort fertility – for 37 developed countries. Our results suggest that family size has remained high in many "low fertility" countries. For example, cohort fertility averages 1.8 for the 1975 birth cohort in the 37 countries for which average period total fertility rate was only 1.5 in 2000. Moreover, we find that the long-term decline in cohort fertility has flattened or reversed in all world regions previously characterized by low fertility. These results are robust to statistical forecast uncertainty and the impact of the late 2000s recession. An application of the new forecasts analyzing the determinants of cohort fertility finds that the key dimensions of development that have been hypothesized to be important for fertility – general socioeconomic development, per capita income, and gender equality – are all positively correlated with fertility for the 1970s cohorts. Gender equality, however, emerges as the strongest determinant: where the gap in economic, political, and educational achievement between women and men is small, cohort fertility is high, whereas where the gap is large, fertility is low. Our new cohort fertility forecasts that document the flattening and even reversal of cohort fertility have large implications for the future of population aging and growth, particularly over the long term.
    Keywords: World, cohort fertility, developed areas, forecasts
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–02
  2. By: Makino, Momoe
    Abstract: The paper explores the effects of birth order and sibling sex composition on human capital investment in children in India using the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS). Endogeneity of fertility is addressed using instruments and controlling for household fixed effects. Family size effect is also distinguished from the sibling sex composition effect. Previous literature has often failed to take endogeneity into account and shows a negative birth order effect for girls in India. Once endogeneity of fertility is addressed, there is no evidence for a negative birth order effect or sibling sex composition effect for girls. Results show that boys are worse off in households that have a higher proportion of boys specifically when they have older brothers.
    Keywords: India, Fertility, Family planning, Household, Birth order, Sibling sex composition, Household resource allocation
    JEL: J13 J16 O12 O53
    Date: 2012–01
  3. By: Carranza, Eliana
    Abstract: This paper examines whether the son preference and fertility behavior of Muslim couples respond to the risk of inheritance expropriation by their extended family. According to traditional Islamic inheritance principles, only the son of a deceased man can exclude his male agnates from inheritance and preserve his estate within the nuclear household. The paper exploits cross-sectional and time variation in the application of the Islamic inheritance exclusion rule in Indonesia: between Muslim and non-Muslim populations affected by different legal systems, across men with different sibling sex composition, and before and after a change in Islamic law that allowed female children to exclude male relatives. The analysis finds that Muslim couples more affected by the exclusion rule exhibit stronger son preference, practice sex-differential fertility stopping, attain a higher proportion of sons, and have larger families than non-Muslims or Muslims for whom the exclusion rule is less binding.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Gender and Law,Population&Development,Adolescent Health,Social Inclusion&Institutions
    Date: 2012–02–01
  4. By: Ciro Avitabile (Inter-American Devlopment Bank and CSEF); Irma Clots-Figueras (Universidad Carlos I de Madrid); Paolo Masella (University of Mannheim)
    Abstract: Citizenship rights are associated with better economic opportunities for immigrants. This paper studies how in a country with a large fraction of temporary migrants the fertility decisions of foreign citizens respond to a change in the rules that regulate child legal status at birth. The introduction of birthright citizenship in Germany, following the introduction of the new German nationality law in 2000, represented a positive shock to the returns to investment in child human capital. Consistent with Becker's "quality-quantity" model of fertility, we find that birthright citizenship leads to a reduction in immigrant fertility and an improvement in health outcomes for the children affected by the reform.
    Date: 2012–02–08
  5. By: Tomo Nishimura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: This study is an analysis of the gap between the desired and actual number of children for four developed countries. Although the direct costs of raising children is an indispensable element in decision-making regarding having children, it has hardly been treated in relevant studies. We estimate the achievement rate of having the desired number of children by many possible elements, including the direct costs of raising children. The results show significant negative impacts of these direct costs as well as delayed marriage as the main causes for low achievement of desired fertility (Japanese men and women, Korean men). Also, the sexual division of labor affects the wife’s achievement rate in Japan, depending on the husband’s employment situation. No noteworthy negative impact was found in the case of high achievement of desired fertility (French men and women, American men).Our results suggest that reducing the direct costs of raising children and stabilizing the employment situation should be given priority rather than other measures with regard to achieving desired fertility.
    Keywords: Fertility, Costs of children, Work-life balance, Job security
    JEL: J13 J22 D10 Z13
    Date: 2012–02
  6. By: Kendzia, Michael J. (IZA); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA and University of Bonn)
    Abstract: Ever since the very beginning of the Journal of Economics and Statistics, population economics has featured prominently in the Journal. Fertility naturally plays an important role in population economics. Its size has decreased significantly from the 1900s. Long time-series regarding fertility and basic trends in Germany are documented and analyzed. We identify three different explanatory approaches for the decline in fertility, according to which the various articles of the Journal related to this area are categorized. The paper also investigates previous fertility studies published by the Journal since the beginning. It points out that several articles anticipated subsequent research directions in the area of population economics at an early stage. In addition, significant contributions were made in terms of further developing existing knowledge. Thus, the Journal has helped to expand the research area of population economics.
    Keywords: fertility, total fertility rate, Malthus, self-regulation, Q-Q trade-off
    JEL: J10 J11 J13
    Date: 2012–02
  7. By: 川瀬, 晃弘
    Abstract: 本論文の目的は、日本の出生率の決定要因をJGSSの個票データを用いた実証分析により明らかにすることにある。JGSSのデータからは、女性が出産した子どもの数のデータとともに兄弟姉妹の数や15歳時に居住していた都道府県名などの情報を入手できる。先行研究では女性の学歴などが出生率に与える影響が大きいことが示唆されているが、本研究ではこれらに加えて、兄弟姉妹の数といった家庭環境や若年期に居住していた地域環境などが女性の出生率に影響を与えるか否かを検証する。分析の結果、通常の回帰分析においてはきょうだい数や15歳時の出生率は女性の子ども数に対して正の影響を与えている様子が伺えたが、個人の属性をコントロールすると結果は不安定なものとなってしまった。そこで、分位回帰(Quantile regression)を行った結果、相対的に子ども数が多い女性についてはこれらの 変数が有意に正の影響を与えていることが明らかになった。
    Keywords: Fertility, Family background, Regional culture
    JEL: J13 Z10
    Date: 2012–01
  8. By: Kotsadam, Andreas (Dept of Economics, University of Oslo); Nerman, Måns (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: This study investigates the effects of gender quotas in national elections on political participation, public policy, and corruption in Latin America. We are able to replicate the findings from previous research that women in politics do affect these outcomes, but only when we treat the number of women in parliament as exogenous. We argue, however, that the introduction of gender quotas caused an – in this context – exogenous increase in women’s representation, and while we find that quotas in Latin America increased the number of women in parliament, we find no substantial effects beyond mere representation. The mechanisms for these findings are scrutinized, and we find no indications that quota women are more marginalized than other elected women in Latin American parliaments. Hence, increasing women’s representation by means of gender quotas may not result in the same outcomes as an increased representation in non-quota elections.<p>
    Keywords: gender quotas; Latin America; women in parliament
    JEL: D72 H50 Z10
    Date: 2012–02–20
  9. By: González de San Román, Ainara (University of the Basque Country); de la Rica, Sara (University of the Basque Country)
    Abstract: The existence of gender gaps in test scores has been documented in the relevant literature for a wide range of countries. In particular, the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) conducted by the OECD over the past ten years reveals that on average female students underperform (outperform) males in maths (reading) test scores in most of the countries that take part in the evaluation programme. We find that differences in culture and social norms across countries and across regions within the same country are crucial determinants in understanding gender differences in PISA 2009 test scores: girls perform relatively better in both maths and reading in societies where gender equality is enhanced, and the effect varies over the distribution of scores. In addition, we find substantial evidence for the intergenerational transmission of gender role attitudes, especially from mothers to daughters, as the performance of girls – not that of boys, is better in families where the mother works outside home.
    Keywords: PISA, test scores, achievement, gender differences, culture, role attitudes, intergenerational transmission
    JEL: C14 C33 I21 I24 J16
    Date: 2012–02
  10. By: Thuan Q. Thai (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: In developing countries, rainfall shocks around the time of birth have been shown decrease later health. The mechanism is unknown, but could run through income shocks, disease exposure, or increasing opportunity cost of parental time which influences parenting behavior. We use the Vietnam Demographic Health Surveys to study how rainfall shocks around the birth year influence a key dimension of parental behavior, breastfeeding. Consistent with the opportunity cost of time theory, rainfall reduces breastfeeding: 25% excess rainfall in the birth year decreases the proportion that is breastfed more than a year by 11 percentage points. The effect is particularly strong among farming families, for whom rainfall increases the opportunity cost of time through labor demand. These results are the first to shed light on the mechanism linking rainfall shocks and child health. Policy aiming to improve child health through breastfeeding should focus on the impact of labor demand on breastfeeding.
    Keywords: Vietnam, breast feeding, cost of children
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–02
  11. By: KOISSY KPEIN Sandrine
    Abstract: This work uses MVPROBIT model and MICS surveys from rural areas of 8 sub-Saharan African countries to highlight the link between household wealth and child labor. It opposes “wealth paradox” approach of Bhalotra and Heady (2003) to “luxury axiom” approach of Basu and Van (1998). Our analysis is based on the assumption of differences in the wealth’s effect according to the gender and the type of labor. The results suggest that heterogeneity among children (gender) and labor activities leads to heterogeneous rules concerning the link between child labor and household wealth.
    Keywords: child labor; schooling; luxury axiom; wealth paradox
    Date: 2012–02
  12. By: Klaus Prettner (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies); David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health)
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the eects of changes in longevity and the pace of technological progress on interest rates, savings behaviour and optimal retirement decisions. In so doing we embed the dynamic optimization problem of choosing a life-cycle consumption path and the retirement age into a general equilibrium setting. Thereby we assume that technology evolves exogenously and the production side of the economy can be described by means of a neoclassical production function. Our results show that (i) the aggregate capital to consumption ratio increases and interest rates decrease in response to increases in longevity; (ii) the response of the optimal retirement age to increases in longevity is ambiguous. However, for reasonable parameter values the optimal retirement age increases in longevity; (iii) the aggregate capital to consumption ratio decreases and interest rates increase in response to faster technological progress; (iv) the response of the optimal retirement age to faster technological progress is ambiguous. However, for reasonable parameter values the optimal retirement age increases in the pace of technological improvements.
    Keywords: endogenous retirement, life-cycle savings, population aging, technological progress, economic prosperity
    Date: 2012–02
  13. By: Christian Pfeifer (Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany); Joachim Wagner (Leuphana University Lüneburg, Germany)
    Abstract: This empirical paper documents the relationship between composition of a firm's workforce (with a special focus on age and gender) and its performance (productivity and profitability) for a large representative sample of enterprises from manufacturing industries in Germany. We use unique newly available data that for the first time combine information from the statistics of employees covered by social security that is aggregated at the enterprise level and information from enterprise level surveys performed by the Statistical Offices. Our microeconometric analysis confirms previous findings of concave age-productivity profiles, which are consistent with human capital theory, and adds a new finding of a rather negative effect of age on firms' profitability, which is consistent with deferred compensation considerations. Moreover, our analysis reveals for the first time that the ceteris paribus lower level of productivity in firms with a higher share of female employees does not go hand in hand with a lower level of profitability in these firms. If anything, profitability is (slightly) higher in firms with a larger share of female employees. This finding might indicate that lower productivity of women is (over)compensated by lower wage costs for women, which might be driven by general labor market discrimination against women.
    Keywords: Ageing, firm performance, gender, productivity, profitability, Germany
    JEL: D22 D24 J21 J24 L25
    Date: 2012–02
  14. By: Nakamura, R.;
    Abstract: Prevalence of overweight among children is at the top of health policy agenda in many developed countries. We study the causal effect of mothers' schooling on children's body weight. We exploit the 1972 schooling reform in England and Wales, which raised the minimum school leaving age from Fifteen to sixteen. Our regression-discontinuity estimates use Health Survey for England (1998-2002) and show that the extra year of schooling for mothers induced by the reform significantly reduces their son's weight. There is only insignificant negative effect for daughters. Additionally, we do not find that mothers' schooling improves children's health behaviour (fruit and vegetable consumption; exercising).
    Keywords: Overweight children; Schooling; Regression-discontinuity;
    JEL: I12 I20
    Date: 2012–02
  15. By: David Stadelmann; Marco Portmann; Reiner Eichenberger
    Abstract: We analyze whether female or male members of parliament adhere more closely to citizens’ revealed preferences with quasi-experimental data. By matching individual representatives’ voting behavior on legislative proposals with real referenda outcomes on the same issues, we identify the effect of gender on representatives’ responsiveness to revealed preferences of the majority of voters. Overall, female members of parliament tend to adhere less to citizens’ preferences than male parliamentarians. However, when party affiliation is controlled for, the effect of gender vanishes. These results are consistent with other evidence showing that women are more socially minded and tend to affiliate themselves more with left parties.
    Keywords: Gender; Discrimination; Voter Preferences; Political Economy
    JEL: D73 J16 J10
    Date: 2012–02
  16. By: Alyson A. van Raalte (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Pekka Martikainen; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Adult lifespan variation in most western countries has stagnated since the 1960s, despite continued improvements in longevity. Cross-sectional analyses, however, find that in the 1990s higher socio-economic position was associated with lower lifespan variation. Trends in this association over time are unknown. We investigated trends in lifespan variation over four decades by occupational social class (manual, lower non-manual, upper non-manual) using Finnish register data (1971-2007). We performed age and cause-of-death decompositions of lifespan variation for each sex (a) by occupational class over time and (b) between occupational classes at a shared life expectancy. We found that although all occupational classes experienced increases in life expectancy, manual workers had stagnating lifespan variation over time while the higher occupational groups experienced mortality compression. These differences were caused by diverging trends in early adult mortality: all occupational classes experienced similar trends in lifespan variation at older ages, but variation in early adult mortality increased for all classes except the highest category. The high and stagnant lifespan variation of the manual class was mostly due to higher early adult mortality from external causes. These results suggest that mortality compression can be compatible with increases in life expectancy by tackling inequalities in early adult mortality.
    Keywords: Finland, adult mortality, age distribution, causes of death, mortality trends, socio-economic differentials
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–02
  17. By: Komlos, John
    Abstract: In 1979, when anthropometric history was still in its infancy, Robert Fogel and collaborators reported that the height of the US male white population began to decline quite unexpectedly around the birth cohorts of 1830. This was quite a conundrum on account of the fact that according to conventional economic theory nutritional status was not expected to diminish at the outset of modern economic growth, i.e., at a time when incomes were growing robustly. Although many hypotheses were offered, not until 1987 was the comprehensive solution to the puzzle offered that the height decline was due primarily to a decline in food consumption: agricultural productivity did not keep pace with rapid population growth and urbanization. However, it took a third of a century for a Kuhnian paradigm shift to occur until most of the participants in the debate accepted the model elucidated by Komlos in 1987.
    Keywords: Anthropometric history; Heights; Thomas Kuhn; Paradigm shift; USA; Antebellum Puzzle; Living Standards
    JEL: B20 B25 N00
    Date: 2012
  18. By: Elisabetta LODIGIANI (DEAS, University of Milan and Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano); Sara SALOMONE (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and Tor Vergata University)
    Abstract: It is recognized that affirmative action, as anti-discriminatory policies whose aim is to benefit an underrepresented group, is a key driver of progress for women. However, the role of migrants in helping female voice from abroad has not been addressed yet. This paper empirically investigates the effect of international migration on the parliamentary participation of women left behind following the brand new strand of literature on ‘transfers of norms’. Panel data from 1960 to 2000 allows us to take into account selection due to women’s eligibility, observed and unobserved heterogeneity. After having controlled for traditional political and non political factors, we show that total international migration to countries with higher female political empowerment significantly increases the female parliamentary shares in sending countries
    Keywords: Women’s empowerment, Transfers of norms, International Migration, Panel Data, Sample Selection
    JEL: J16 D72 F22 C33
    Date: 2012–02–03
  19. By: Carranza, Eliana
    Abstract: The female population deficit in India has been explained in a number of ways, but the great heterogeneity in the deficit across districts within India still remains an open question. This paper argues that across India, a largely agrarian economy, soil texture varies exogenously and determines the workability of the soil and the technology used in land preparation. Deep tillage, possible only in lighter and looser loamy soils, reduces the use of labor in cultivation tasks performed by women and has a negative impact on the relative value of girls to a household. The analysis finds that soil texture explains a large part of the variation in women's relative participation in agriculture and in infant sex ratios across districts in India.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Common Property Resource Development,Population Policies,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Labor Policies
    Date: 2012–02–01
  20. By: Tuomas Kosonen
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of child-care subsidies on maternal labour supply. In the Finnish child-care system, parents taking care of their children at home receive a relatively generous home-care allowance. I use variation arising from changes in the municipality-specific supplement to this allowance to identify the causal effect of subsidies on the labour force participation of parents. A municipal supplement creates plausibly exogenous variation in subsidies, since the opportunity to take them up depends on municipal-level rules, but not on changes in individual labour supply decisions. Moreover, a supplement policy affects labour supply in a transparent way since the amount of supplement one is eligible for does not depend on income. Robustness checks indicate that the results are not driven by policy endogeneity or residential sorting. I find a large negative effect on the labour force participation and income of mothers. 100 euros higher supplement per month reduces the maternal labour supply by 3 per cent. The estimated effect is larger for higher-educated than for mediumeducated mothers.
    Keywords: Labour supply of parents, child care subsidies, participation tax rate
    JEL: J13 J22 H20
    Date: 2011–04–29
  21. By: Thomas Liebig; Sebastian Kohls; Karolin Krause
    Abstract: Switzerland is among the OECD countries with the largest immigrant populations – 27% of the working-age population are foreign-born – and the issue of immigration is high on both the policy agenda and in the public debate. Given the numerous debates around this issue in Switzerland, one could be tempted to think that immigrants are less well integrated than in other countries...
    JEL: J13 J15 J21 J24 J61 J7 J8
    Date: 2012–02–02
  22. By: Rachel Margolis; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: We examine how family, money, and health explain variation in life satisfaction (“happiness”) over the life cycle. Globally, these factors explain a substantial fraction of happiness, increasing from 12 percent in young adulthood to 15 percent in mature adulthood. Health is the most important factor, and its importance increases with age. Income is important only at ages below 50. Remarkably, the contribution of family is small across ages. Across regions health is most important in the wealthier, and income in the poorer regions of the world. Family explains a substantial fraction of happiness only in Western Europe and Anglophone countries.
    Keywords: World, family, health, income, mental health
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–02
  23. By: Martin Machay (Silesian University, School of Business Administration)
    Abstract: One of the most enchanting areas in economics is the forward thinking. While Malthus and Ricardo agreed on the gloomy vision of the future, Mill described the wider stationary state and foresaw it in a more optimistic way. Space sciences and improvements in our technology provided us with the solution decades ago, although economics did not notice this possible solution of the classical stationary state until now. This article incorporates this knowledge into economics. Calories integrate the supply of means of production and the demand for means of consumption in one market. The stationary state could come only if the demand for means of subsistence grows faster than the supply of means of production. Increasing scarcity of free calories exceeding the minimal required volume of it preventing the malnutrition and death will push the calorie price up while economy will move towards the stationary state. But where to take the land when the very last piece of it – even the deserts – will be already cultivated? Increasing scarcity of land opens possibility for firms to make profit from producing land. Thus, the classical stationary state is only an illusion.
    Keywords: stationary state, terraforming, food, population growth, nutrition, space economics
    JEL: J11 Q11 Q15 Q21 Y90
    Date: 2012–01
  24. By: Friebel, Guido (Goethe University Frankfurt); Guriev, Sergei (CEFIR, New Economic School, Moscow)
    Abstract: Despite its importance in global illegal migration, there is little, and mostly theoretical research on human smuggling. We suggest an analytical framework to understand the micro structure of the human smuggling market. Migrants interact with smuggling and financing intermediaries; these may or may not be integrated with each other, and with the migrants' employers. Policies of receiving countries (border controls, employer sanctions, deportation policies, sales of visa) affect the interactions in the smuggling market, and, hence, migration flows. We review the theoretical work, point to the scarce empirical evidence, and identify challenges for future theoretical, empirical work and policy advice.
    Keywords: illegal migration, trafficking
    JEL: J15 J61
    Date: 2012–02
  25. By: Ossi Korkeamäki
    Abstract: In this paper I evaluate the effects of a regional experiment that reduced payroll taxes by 3?6 percentage points of the firms? wage sum in northern and eastern Finland. I estimate the effect of the payroll tax reduction on firms? employment levels, wage sum and profits, and on workers? hourly pay and monthly hours worked, by comparing the changes in employment and wages before and after the start of the experiment to a control region. My results indicate that the reduction in payroll taxes did not lead to any unequivocal aggregate effects in the target region.
    Keywords: Payroll-tax, labour demand, tax incidence
    JEL: J18 J58 J38 J68 J23 J65
    Date: 2011–04–13

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