nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2012‒02‒20
34 papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences By Galor, Oded
  2. The long-standing demographic East-West-divide in Germany By Sebastian Klüsener; Joshua R. Goldstein
  3. Fertility and Child Occupation: Theory and Evidence from Senegal By VERHEYDEN Bertrand; FAYE Ousmane
  4. Crime and the transition to marriage. The roles of gender and partner’s criminal involvement By Christian Weisæth Monsbakken, Torkild Hovde Lyngstad, Torbjørn Skardhamar
  5. Luxembourg and France: Comparable Family Benefits, Comparable Fertility Levels? By REINSTADLER Anne
  6. Econometric models of child mortality dynamics in rural Bangladesh. By Saha, U.R.
  7. Fertility forecasting: using Bayesian methods to extrapolate trends while preserving cohort features By Carl Schmertmann; Joshua R. Goldstein; Mikko Myrskylä; Emilio Zagheni
  8. Gender Attitudes in Luxembourg Between 1999 and 2008 By VALENTOVA Marie
  9. Impatience among preschool children and their mothers By Kosse, Fabian; Pfeiffer, Friedhelm
  10. Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India By Jane Golley; Rod Tyers
  11. Economic insecurity and fertility intentions: the case of Italy By Modena, Francesca; Rondinelli, Concetta; Sabatini, Fabio
  12. Mines, migration and HIV/AIDS in southern Africa By Corno, Lucia; de Walque, Damien
  13. Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe (Introduction to special issue of Demographic Research) By Michaela Kreyenfeld; Gunnar Andersson; Ariane Pailhé
  14. Spatial aspects of the rise of nonmarital fertility across Europe since 1960: the role of states and regions in shaping patterns of change By Sebastian Klüsener; Brienna Perelli-Harris; Nora Elisa Sanchez Gassen
  15. Demography, capital flows and unemployment By Luca MARCHIORI; Olivier PIERRARD; Henri R. SNEESSENS
  16. The Male-Female Gap in Post-Baccalaureate School Quality By Stevenson, Adam
  17. War Debt and the Baby Boom By Zhao, Kai
  18. Child Gender And Parental Investments In India: Are Boys And Girls Treated Differently? By Silvia H. Barcellos; Leandro Carvalho; Adriana Lleras-Muney
  19. Total work and gender facts and possible explanations By Michael Burda; Hamermesh Daniel; Weil Philippe
  20. Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms By Raouf BOUCEKKINE; B. MARTINEZ; J. R. RUIZ-TAMARIT
  21. The Labor Supply and Tax Revenue Consequences of Federal Same-Sex Marriage Legalization By Stevenson, Adam
  22. Is There a Gender Bias in Crime Against Firms for Developing Economies? By Islam, Asif
  23. Positive and Negative Mental Health Consequences of Early Childhood Television Watching By Michael Waldman; Sean Nicholson; Nodir Adilov
  24. Child Care Subsidies, Maternal Well-Being, and Child-Parent Interactions: Evidence from Three Nationally Representative Datasets By Herbst, Chris M.; Tekin, Erdal
  25. Two cases of divorce in the town of Arad in the eighteenth century By Ghita, Eugen
  26. Perturbation analysis of indices of lifespan variability By Alyson A. van Raalte; Hal Caswell
  27. When elders rule: is gerontocracy harmful for growth? By Atella, Vincenzo; Carbonari, Lorenzo
  28. Child Social Maladjustment and Adult Employment Dynamics By Sciulli, Dario
  29. Time Use of Mothers and Fathers in Hard Times and Better Times: the U.S. Business Cycle of 2003-2010 By Günseli Berik and Ebru Kongar
  30. Participation des mères au marché du travail et disponibilité locale des services collectifs de garde d'enfants. Application au Luxembourg By BOUSSELIN Audrey; RAY Jean-Claude
  31. Estimated hedonic wage function and value of life in an African country By Abdelaziz Benkhalifa; Mohamed Ayadi; Paul Lanoie
  32. Random or Referral Hiring: When Social Connections Matter By Nicodemo, Catia; Nicolini, Rosella
  33. The Gompertz distribution and maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters - a revision By Adam Lenart
  34. Inequality of Wealth in the Ottoman Empire: War, Weather, and Long-term Trends in Eighteenth Century Kastamonu By Metin M. Cosgel; Bogac A. Ergene

  1. By: Galor, Oded (Brown University)
    Abstract: This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growth.
    Keywords: demographic transition, gender gap, human capital, fertility, mortality, Unified Growth Theory
    JEL: O10 J1
    Date: 2012–01
  2. By: Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Joshua R. Goldstein (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Over the last decades numerous studies have dealt with demographic differences between the former communist eastern part of Germany and western Germany. Although the demography of these two regions has converged with respect to mortality and overall fertility levels, non-marital births are the norm in eastern Germany but the exception in western Germany. A number of explanations, stemming from the policy and socio-economic conditions of eastern and western Germany in recent decades, have been put forth. Here, we show that the divide in demographic behavior regarding fertility and marriage pre-dates the division of Germany into a communist east and (capitalist) west. Indeed, the areas in eastern Germany that formed the German Democratic Republic had in average roughly twice the level of non-marital fertility from at least since the middle of the 19th century. The persistence of the past suggests that explanations depending on current conditions are likely to be incomplete and that convergence, if it happens, will be a process lasting many decades or even centuries.
    Keywords: German Empire, Germany, Germany/FRG, Germany/GDR, family formation, fertility, historical analysis, nuptiality, spatial analysis
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–01
  3. By: VERHEYDEN Bertrand; FAYE Ousmane
    Abstract: This paper analyzes household fertility and child occupation decisions in a risky environment. Fertility decisions are made fi?rst, when only the distribution of shocks is known. When shocks are realized and fertility is ?xed, parents adapt by allocating children?s occupations, i.e. school, paid work and domestic chores. Fertility is decreasing with the shock probability and increasing with parental permanent income. Households facing an adverse shock make more use of child labor and send fewer children to school, unless the total number of children is small. These predictions are tested with data from the Senegalese SEHW (2003) following this two-step methodology. A Poisson model estimates the number of children with classical instruments and household-level information on shock distribution, con?rming the theory?s predictions on fertility. A multivariate Tobit model estimates the determinants of children occupations, including the occurrence of shocks and accounting for the endogeneity of fertility. The number of children increases (decreases) the probability of child specialization (multiple activities). Shock-related variables have an adverse e¤ect on schooling.
    Keywords: Fertility; education; child labor; shocks
    JEL: J13 J24 O12 O15
    Date: 2011–11
  4. By: Christian Weisæth Monsbakken, Torkild Hovde Lyngstad, Torbjørn Skardhamar (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Several previous studies have argued that marriage leads to a decline in criminal propensity. Most of these studies have focused on men and have given little attention to the characteristics of their partner and events related to changes in offending. In this article, we use Norwegian registry data to study changes in the criminal propensity for all persons who married between 1995 and 2001 (117,882 women and 120,912 men). We link data on individuals to data on their marital partners and obtain information on partners’ criminal histories. We find that the changes in offending rates related to marriage are anticipatory and strongest for men. The changes in offending vary substantially by partner’s criminal history.
    Keywords: marriage; crime; social control; gender; assortative mating
    JEL: J12 K14 K49
    Date: 2012–02
    Abstract: The economic theory of the family as proposed by Becker (1981, 1991) predicts clearly the relationship between income (especially the mother's income) and fertility. Indeed, it assesses that an income effect and a substitution effect could coexist, whose net impact is thus to be determined empirically. Many authors have already attempted to do so, some interested in the effect of the woman's wage on fertility, others focusing on the effect of some family policy measures on the decision to have a first child. Our own analysis is situated in this latter framework. Using the Luxembourgish sample of the EU-SILC data, we estimate the effect observed in the Grand-Duchy and compare the result with those obtained in France, a country with quite similar family policies.
    Keywords: Fertility; family benefits; endogeneity
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2011–12
  6. By: Saha, U.R. (Tilburg University)
    Abstract: Child mortality remains an important issue in Bangladesh. This thesis consists of four empirical studies on child mortality using data on Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Matlab, Bangladesh. The first study investigates the inter-family observed and unobserved heterogeneity in child deaths and the causal effect of death of one child on survival chances of the next child. The second study investigates the relationships between birth spacing, child survival and fertility allowing for the simultaneous nature of these processes, and controlling for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the outcomes of interest. The third study investigates the causal role of contraceptive use on birth spacing allowing for simultaneous nature of these processes and controlling for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the outcomes of interest. The fourth study analyzes the underlying epidemiology of child deaths taking into account competing risks associated with both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies distinguish the differences in child mortality dynamics in rural Bangladesh between two areas ICDDR,B and comparison with and without extensive health services.
    Date: 2012
  7. By: Carl Schmertmann (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Joshua R. Goldstein (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: There are already several documented examples of recent increases in cohort fertility in Scandinavia, but for most countries, cohorts are too young to see if cohort fertility has increased. We produce new estimates of completed cohort fertility for cohorts born in the 1970s. We combine the best of previous efforts, using cohort forecasting methods to preserve what demographers know about the age-pattern of fertility, and using trends in the age-period-cohort Lexis surface to tell us as much as possible about the way in which fertility appears to be changing over time. Our preliminary findings suggest that cohort fertility has stopped its long-term secular decline in the majority of low fertility countries around the world. In some cases, there is a clear suggestion of increase. As we further develop our models we expect to be able to make more precise statements about further trends and the certainty of our knowledge.
    Keywords: fertility
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–01
  8. By: VALENTOVA Marie
    Abstract: This paper uses European Values Study (EVS) data from 1999 and 2008 to examine the evolution of gender role attitudes in Luxembourg. The paper focuses on three aspects of the attitudinal changes. First, it analyses whether the gender role beliefs measured by three scores (childcare, homemaking and economic aspects) have changed during the past decade. Second, it examines whether these changes have equally touched men and women of different age categories. Third, it analysis whether the gender gap in attitudes towards gender roles diminishes over time. The outcomes of the analysis reveal that during the past ten years Luxembourg’s residents have become significantly less traditional regarding gender role attitudes, mainly when it comes to attitudes towards the consequences of female employment on children and the economic aspects of the gender roles. Young women are the strongest supporters of the more egalitarian division of labour between the sexes, while young men lag behind their female counterparts. This gender gap appears to persist especially in case of attitudes towards homemaking.
    Keywords: attitudes; gender roles; sex gap; EVS
    JEL: D63 Z13
    Date: 2012–02
  9. By: Kosse, Fabian; Pfeiffer, Friedhelm
    Abstract: Using experimental data of children and their mothers, this paper explores the intergenerational relationship of impatience. The child's impatience stems from a delay of gratification experiment. Mother's impatience has been assessed by a choice task where the mothers faced trade-offs between a smaller-sooner and a larger-later monetary reward with a delay of six or twelve months. The findings demonstrate an intergenerational relationship in short-run decision making. Controlling for mother's and child's characteristics the child's impatience at preschool age is significantly correlated with the six month maternal reservation interest rate. --
    Keywords: time preferences,impatience : intergenerational transmission,field experiments
    JEL: C93 D03 D90
    Date: 2012
  10. By: Jane Golley; Rod Tyers
    Abstract: The world's two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to non-workers, rather than the number of working aged to non-working aged. While much of China's demographic dividend now lies in the past, alternative assumptions about future trends in fertility and labor force participation rates are used to demonstrate that China will not necessarily enter a period of “demographic taxation” for at least another decade, if not longer. In contrast with China, much of India's potential demographic dividend lies in waiting for the decades ahead, with the extent and duration depending critically on a range of policy choices.
    JEL: C68 E27 F43 J11 O53
    Date: 2012–02
  11. By: Modena, Francesca; Rondinelli, Concetta; Sabatini, Fabio
    Abstract: We aim to provide an explanation for the combination of the relatively low female participation rates and lowest-low fertility levels in Italy. Starting from the assumption that childbearing decisions also depend on uncertainty about future employment, income, and wealth, we empirically assess how fertility intentions are affected by: 1) the deprivation of a quality job, which may severely compromise the employability of workers and is likely to provoke feelings of insecurity about future employment; 2) conditions of economic disadvantage in terms of household income and wealth, which may imply insufficient means to deal with potential adverse future events, thereby generating in the household feelings of anxiety and economic insecurity. We show that the instability of women’s work status (i.e. the holding of occasional and precarious employment positions) significantly discourages the decision to have a first child. Low levels of household wealth significantly and positively influence the decision to postpone, or even decide against, having a first child. The chances of further childbirth are significantly and negatively influenced by household income insecurity.
    Keywords: economic insecurity; income; wealth; fertility; childbearing; ; employment instability; precarious employment; Italy
    JEL: J13 C25
    Date: 2012–01–31
  12. By: Corno, Lucia; de Walque, Damien
    Abstract: Swaziland and Lesotho have the highest HIV prevalence in the world. They also share another distinct feature: during the last century, they sent a large numbers of migrant workers to South African mines. This paper examines whether participation in mining in a bordering country affects HIV infection rate. A job in the mines means leaving for long periods away from their families and living in an area with an active sex industry. This creates potential incentives for multiple, concurrent partnerships. Using Demographic and Health Surveys, the analysis shows that migrant miners ages 30-44 are 15 percentage points more likely to be HIV positive, and women whose partner is a migrant miner are 8 percentage points more likely to become infected. The study also shows that miners are less likely to abstain or use condoms, and female partners of miners are more likely to engage in extramarital sex. The authors interpret these results as suggesting that miners'migration into South Africa has increased the spread of HIV/AIDS in their countries of origin. Consistent with this interpretation, the association between HIV infection and being a miner or a miner's wife are not statistically significant in Zimbabwe, a country where the mining industry is local and does not involve migrating to South Africa.
    Keywords: Population Policies,HIV AIDS,Disease Control&Prevention,Gender and Health,Gender and Law
    Date: 2012–02–01
  13. By: Michaela Kreyenfeld (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Gunnar Andersson (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ariane Pailhé
    Abstract: This special collection of Demographic Research is devoted to the issue of how economic and employment uncertainties relate to fertility and family dynamics in Europe. The collection is based on contributions to a workshop held in Berlin in July 2009, which in turn was stimulated by the onset of the economic recession in 2008. The collection comprises studies on how various dimensions of employment uncertainty, such as temporary working contracts and individual and aggregate unemployment, are related to the fertility and family formation of women and men in contexts across Europe. It covers studies on Germany, the U.K., France, Russia, Estonia, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Israel.
    Keywords: Germany, fertility
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–01
  14. By: Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Brienna Perelli-Harris (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Nora Elisa Sanchez Gassen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of states and regions in shaping spatial patterns of non-marital fertility in Europe since 1960 using a dataset of 497 European subnational regions and smaller countries. Almost all regions registered substantial nonmarital fertility increases over the last 50 years. Prior research by Watkins (1991) has shown that in the first half of the 20th century states played a dominant role in drawing the demographic map of Europe. As a result, subnational regional variation decreased, while differences between countries increased. In this paper, we investigate whether states continue to play such a dominant role in delineating patterns of nonmarital fertility between 1960 and 2007. We find that variation in nonmarital fertility levels increased as a whole across Europe, and states continued to be important for determining these patterns. However, the role of states relative to regions declined in the latest period examined (1990 and 2007). Possible explanations for the changes include increased supranational integration, for example within the European Union, and decentralisation within states leading to increases in variation in subnational contextual conditions.
    Keywords: Europe, fertility, geography, nuptiality, spatial analysis
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–01
  15. By: Luca MARCHIORI (Central Bank of Luxembourg and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Olivier PIERRARD (Central Bank of Luxembourg and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Henri R. SNEESSENS (CREA, Université du Luxembourg and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and IZA, Bonn)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the already vast literature on demography-induced international capital flows by examining the role of labor market imperfections and institutions. We setup a two-country overlapping generations model with search unemployment, which we calibrate on EU15 and US data. Labor market imperfections are found to significantly increase the volume of capital flows, because of stronger employment adjustments in comparison with a competitive economy. We next exploit themodel to investigate how demographic asymmetriesmay have contributed to unemployment and welfare changes in the recent past (1950-2010). We show that a policy reform in one country also has an impact on labor markets in other countries when capital is mobile.
    Keywords: demographics; capital flows; overlapping generations; general equilibrium; unemployment
    JEL: C68 D91 E24 F21 J11
    Date: 2011–10–31
  16. By: Stevenson, Adam
    Abstract: Women are less likely than men to earn degrees from high-quality post-baccalaureate programs, and this tendency has been growing over time. I show that, aside from the biomedical sciences, this can not be explained by changes in the type of program where women tend to earn degrees. Instead, sorting by quality within field is the main contributor to the growing gap. Most of this sorting is due to the initial choice in which program type to apply to. No gender differences arise in terms of enrollment or attrition choices, and admissions committees in high-quality post-baccalaureate programs appear to favor women.
    Keywords: graduate school; professional school; gender; ability; program quality
    JEL: I23 I21 J16
    Date: 2012–02–08
  17. By: Zhao, Kai
    Abstract: In this paper, I argue that an important cause of the postwar baby boom in the US was the dramatic reduction in government debt (via income taxation) in the two decades following WWII. A reduction in government debt (via income taxation) increases fertility by changing the tax burden of different generations. A higher current income tax increases fertility by lowering after-tax wage and therefore the opportunity cost of child-rearing (when the cost of child-rearing involves parental time). A lower government debt level implies a lower tax burden on children in the future and thus a higher lifetime utility for them, which also increases current fertility if parents have Barro-Becker type preferences (the children's utility is included in the parents' utility function). The United States government accumulated a large amount of debt from WWII. The debt-GDP ratio peaked at 108% in 1946, and the debt level was reduced significantly (via taxation) in the following two decades. The debt-GDP ratio was only 35% in 1966. In a quantitative Barro-Becker model with government debt, I show that a reduction in government debt (financed by income taxation) such as the one experienced by the postwar US can generate a significant increase in fertility, which in magnitude accounts for 48% of the postwar baby boom in the US.
    Keywords: Fertility; Baby boom; Government debt; WWII
    JEL: E62 E0 J11
    Date: 2011–07–22
  18. By: Silvia H. Barcellos; Leandro Carvalho; Adriana Lleras-Muney
    Abstract: Although previous research has not always found that boys and girls are treated differently in rural India, son-biased stopping rules imply that estimates of the effect of gender on parental investments are likely to be biased because girls systematically end up in larger families. We propose a novel identification strategy for overcoming this bias. We document that boys receive significantly more childcare time than girls. In addition boys are more likely to be breastfed longer, and to be given vaccinations and vitamin supplementation. We then present suggestive evidence that the differential treatment of boys is neither due to their greater needs nor to the effect of anticipated family size.
    JEL: I15 J16
    Date: 2012–01
  19. By: Michael Burda (Humboldt University); Hamermesh Daniel (University of Texas); Weil Philippe (Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques)
    Abstract: Time-diary data from 27 countries show a negative relationship between GDP per capita and gender differences in total workfor pay and at home. In rich non-Catholic countries men and women average about the same amount of total work. Survey results show scholars and the general public believe that women work more. Widespread average equality does not arise from gender differences in the price of time, intra-family bargaining or spousal complementarity. Several theories, including ones based on social norms, might explain these findings and are consistent with evidence from the World Values Surveys and microeconomic data from Australia and Germany.
    Keywords: time use, gender differences,household production
    JEL: J22 J16 D13
    Date: 2012–02
  20. By: Raouf BOUCEKKINE (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) and GREQAM,Aix-Marseille University, France); B. MARTINEZ (Department of Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain)); J. R. RUIZ-TAMARIT (Department of Economic Analysis, Universitat de Valencia (Spain), and Department of Economics, Université Catholique de Louvain (Belgium) (IRES))
    Abstract: This paper studies the different mechanisms and the dynamics through which demography is channelled to the economy. We analyze the role of demographic changes in the economic development process by studying the transitional and the long-run impact of both the rate of population growth and the initial population size on the levels of per capita human capital and income. We do that in an enlarged Lucas-Uzawa model with intergenerational altruism. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature, the long-run level effects of demographic changes, i.e. their impact on the levels of the variables along the balanced growth path, are deeply characterized in addition to the more standard long-run growth effects. We prove that the level effect of the population rate of growth is non-negative (positive in the empirically most relevant case) for the average level of human capital, but a priori ambiguous for the level of per capita income due to the interaction of three transmission mechanisms of demographic shocks, a standard one (dilution) and two non-standard (altruism and human capital accumulation). Overall, the sign of the level effects of population growth depend on preference and technology parameters, but numerically we show that the joint negative effect of dilution and altruism is always stronger than the finduced positive human capital effect. The growth effect of population growth depends basically on the attitude to intergenerational altruism and intertemporal substitution. Moreover, we also prove that the long-run level effects of population size on per capita human capital and income may be negative, nil, or positive, depending on the relationship between preferences and technology, while its growth effect is zero. Finally, we show that the model is able to replicate complicated time relationships between economic and demographic changes. In particular, it entails a negative effect of population growth on per capita income, which dominates in the initial periods, and a positive effect which restores a positive correlation between population growth and economic performance in the long term.
    Keywords: Human Capital, Population Growth, Population Size, Endogenous Growth, Level Effect, Growth Effect
    JEL: C61 C62 E2 J10 O41
    Date: 2011–10–28
  21. By: Stevenson, Adam
    Abstract: The issue of same-sex marriage legalization is increasingly part of the national political dialogue. This legalization would have a number of economic impacts, one of the most direct being a change in income tax payments, through the so-called marriage penalty. I estimate the effects of same-sex marriage legalization on federal income tax revenue. These estimates rely critically on the responsiveness of labor supply and marital choice to changes in the tax code. I present new evidence on both topics using changes in taxation generated from the 2003 Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act. In addition, I propose a novel measure of the marriage penalty that incorporates the fact that agents will respond optimally to changes in marginal tax rates within the household.
    Keywords: labor supply; marriage penalty; sexual orientation; DOMA
    JEL: H24 J22 J12 D10
    Date: 2012–02–08
  22. By: Islam, Asif
    Abstract: The literature has typically found a positive relationship between crime rates and female headed households. Female headed households tend to indicate instability and vulnerability, and thus a positive relationship may not be surprising. This study explores the relationship between female owned firms and losses due to crime experienced by firms using data for about 12,000 firms in 27 developing countries. Although we do find a similar positive relationship between female owned firms and losses due to crime, the results may suggest that the reason may be a gender bias in the incidence of crime. We find similar results for female owned and managed firms and losses due to crime. We also find that several macro-economic factors can weaken or strengthen the relationship between crime and female ownership and management. The results are robust to various sensitivity checks.
    Keywords: Crime; Firms; Gender; Development
    JEL: O10 K42 O50 J16
    Date: 2012–01–26
  23. By: Michael Waldman; Sean Nicholson; Nodir Adilov
    Abstract: An extensive literature in medicine investigates the health consequences of early childhood television watching. However, this literature does not address the issue of reverse causation, i.e., does early childhood television watching cause specific health outcomes or do children more likely to have these health outcomes watch more television? This paper uses a natural experiment to investigate the health consequences of early childhood television watching and so is not subject to questions concerning reverse causation. Specifically, we use repeated cross-sectional data from 1972 through 1992 on county-level mental retardation rates, county-level autism rates, and county-level children’s cable-television subscription rates to investigate how early childhood television watching affects the prevalence of mental retardation and autism. We find a strong negative correlation between average county-level cable subscription rates when a birth cohort is below three and subsequent mental retardation diagnosis rates, but a strong positive correlation between the same cable subscription rates and subsequent autism diagnosis rates. Our results thus suggest that early childhood television watching has important positive and negative health consequences.
    JEL: I12
    Date: 2012–01
  24. By: Herbst, Chris M. (Arizona State University); Tekin, Erdal (Georgia State University)
    Abstract: A complete account of the U.S. child care subsidy system requires an understanding of its implications for both parental and child well-being. Although the effects of child care subsidies on maternal employment and child development have been recently studied, many other dimensions of family well-being have received little attention. This paper attempts to fill this gap by examining the impact of child care subsidy receipt on maternal health and the quality of child-parent interactions. The empirical analyses use data from three nationally representative surveys, providing access to numerous measures of family well-being. In addition, we attempt to handle the possibility of non-random selection into subsidy receipt by using several identification strategies both within and across the surveys. Our results consistently indicate that child care subsidies are associated with worse maternal health and poorer interactions between parents and their children. In particular, subsidized mothers report lower levels of overall health and are more likely to show symptoms consistent with anxiety, depression, and parenting stress. Such mothers also reveal more psychological and physical aggression toward their children and are more likely to utilize spanking as a disciplinary tool. Together, these findings suggest that work-based public policies aimed at economically disadvantaged mothers may ultimately undermine family well-being.
    Keywords: child care, subsidy, health
    JEL: I18 J13
    Date: 2012–01
  25. By: Ghita, Eugen
    Abstract: The two documents, which are the subject of the present study, made to share property in the event of divorce, help to form an image on various aspects of daily life, poorly known from other sources: household size, land property, earnings in marriage furniture, tools, animals, prices, food, secular and religious involvement of the private life etc. In addition to legal information, both inventories, which stood at the base of documents on which the property was to be divided, reveal another perspective on social history of Arad in the late eighteenth century.
    Keywords: marriage; divorce; daily life; household; Arad; eighteenth century
    JEL: J1 J12 J0
    Date: 2011
  26. By: Alyson A. van Raalte (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Hal Caswell (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: A number of indices have been used in recent years to calculate lifespan variation, each with dierent underlying properties. Although these indices are assumed to be interchangeable, little research has been conducted to show under which conditions this assumption is appropriate, or how to compare their responses to the underlying mor- tality schedule. We compare seven indices of lifespan variation: life disparity, the Gini coecient, the standard deviation, the variance, Theil's index, the mean logarithmic deviation, and the inter-quartile range. We derive the sensitivity and elasticity of each index by apply- ing Markov chain theory and matrix calculus. Using empirical French and Russian male data we compare the underlying sensitivities to mor- tality change under dierent mortality regimes in order to test under which conditions the indices might dier in their conclusions about the magnitude of lifespan variation. Finally we demonstrate how integrat- ing these sensitivities can be used as a method of age decomposition. The result is an easily computable method for calculating the proper- ties of this important class of longevity indices.
    Keywords: inequality, mathematical demography, mortality measurement
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–01
  27. By: Atella, Vincenzo; Carbonari, Lorenzo
    Abstract: We study the relationship between gerontocracy and aggregate economic perfomance in a simple model where growth is driven by human capital accumulation and productive government spending. We show that gerontocratic élites display the tendency to underinvest in public education and productive government services and thereby may be harmful growth. In absence of intergenerational altruism, the damage caused by gerontocracy is mainly due to the lack in long-term delayed-return investment originated by the shorter life horizon of the ruling class with respect to the rest of the population. An empirical analysis is carried out on a rich data set that al lows to test theoretical results across different countries and different sectors. The econometric results confirm our main hypotheses.
    Keywords: Gerontocracy; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    JEL: J1 O4
    Date: 2012–01–12
  28. By: Sciulli, Dario
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of social maladjustment at age 11 on adult employment probability. Social maladjustment is measured according to the British Social Adjustment Guide score provided by the National Child Development Study that also provides information on cohort-members both in childhood and adulthood, including current employment status and past working history. The econometric method consists in a dynamic probit model with unobserved heterogeneity accounting for true state dependence and initial conditions problem. Consistently with the previous literature, we find that social maladjustment during childhood determines a lower employment probability in adulthood. This result holds also after controlling for true state dependence and past working history. Interestingly, the adult employment probability of socially maladjusted children is prone to greater variability according to life experiences than that of socially adjusted children. We find that being employed in the previous period, education, young-adulthood working experiences and, for females, early working experiences increases the adult employment probability for all cohort-members. However the positive effect is stronger for socially maladjusted children and, overall, investment in higher education seems to be relevant. This suggests that interventions during life development for socially maladjusted children could be important to reduce inequality in adult employment probability.
    Keywords: social maladjustment; employment dynamics; child development; true state dependence; initial conditions
    JEL: J13 I12 C23 J24
    Date: 2012–02–16
  29. By: Günseli Berik and Ebru Kongar
    Abstract: The U.S. economic crisis and recession of 2007-2009 accelerated the convergence of women’s and men’s employment rates as men experienced disproportionate job losses and women’s entry into the labor force gathered pace. Using the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data for 2003-2010, this study examines whether the narrowing gap in paid work over this period was mirrored in unpaid work, personal care and leisure time. We find that the gender gap in unpaid work followed a U-pattern, narrowing during the recession but widening afterwards. Through segregation analysis we trace this U-pattern to the slow erosion of gender segregation in housework and through a standard decomposition analysis of time use by employment status we show that this pattern was mainly driven by movement towards gender equitable unpaid hours of women and men with the same employment status. In addition, over the business cycle gender inequality in leisure time increased.
    Keywords: J16, J22, J64 JEL Classification: Economics of Gender, Unemployment, Time Use, Economic Crises
    Date: 2011
  30. By: BOUSSELIN Audrey; RAY Jean-Claude
    Abstract: L’objet de cette étude est d’analyser le rôle de l’offre locale de modes de garde collectifs sur la participation des mères au marché du travail. Nous utilisons un modèle probit bivarié pour expliquer simultanément la probabilité de travailler et la probabilité de recours à la garde collective des femmes en couple ayant au moins un enfant non scolarisé. Les résultats obtenus vont au-delà de la confirmation du rôle positif de la disponibilité locale des modes de garde collectifs sur la participation des mères au marché du travail et le recours à la garde collective : l’usage de cas types réalistes suggère que l’ampleur de cet effet est non négligeable.
    Keywords: offre de travail; femmes; garde d'enfants; probit bivarié
    JEL: J13 J22
    Date: 2011–11
  31. By: Abdelaziz Benkhalifa; Mohamed Ayadi; Paul Lanoie (IEA, HEC Montréal)
    Abstract: This paper reports the first study of compensating wage differentials for work-related fatalities in an African country. Using original data from the 2002 Tunisian Caisse nationale de la sécurité sociale, statistically significant compensating wage differentials are found. The implied value of life is $ 643800 (US $ 2000).
    Keywords: Compensating wage differentials; Value of life
    JEL: J17 J28 J31
    Date: 2012–01
  32. By: Nicodemo, Catia (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Nicolini, Rosella (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: This study investigates the existence of hiring criteria associated with the degree of social connections between skill and low-skill workers. We provide evidence about to what extent managers rely on their social connections in recruiting low-skill workers rather than on random matching. As one unique feature we follow an approach for a posted wage setting that reflects the main features of the Spanish labor market. By working with sub-samples of high and low-skill workers we are able to assess that the recruitment of low-skill immigrants quite often follows a referral strategy and we identify interesting irregularities across the ethnic groups. As a common feature, referral hiring is usually influences by the ethnicity of the manager and the relative proportion of immigrants within the firm. Under these perspectives, our study outlines new insights to evaluate the future perspectives of the Spanish labor market.
    Keywords: ethnicity, hiring strategies, social networks
    JEL: J15 J21 J24 J61 J71
    Date: 2012–01
  33. By: Adam Lenart (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The Gompertz distribution is widely used to describe the distribution of adult deaths. Previous works concentrated on formulating approximate relationships to characterize it. However, using the generalized integro-exponential function Milgram (1985) exact formulas can be derived for its moment-generating function and central moments. Based on the exact central moments, higher accuracy approximations can be defined for them. In demographic or actuarial applications, maximum-likelihood estimation is often used to determine the parameters of the Gompertz distribution. By solving the maximum-likelihood estimates analytically, the dimension of the optimization problem can be reduced to one both in the case of discrete and continuous data.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–02
  34. By: Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut); Bogac A. Ergene (University of Vermont)
    Abstract: This article offers a quantitative analysis of wealth inequality in the Ottoman Empire, employing data from probate inventories (terekes) of eighteenth-century Kastamonu, a town located in northern Anatolia. Extracting information on the wealth levels and personal characteristics of individuals, we estimate aggregate measures of wealth inequality, namely the Gini Coefficient, the coefficient of variation, and the wealth shares of the wealthiest 10 and 25 percents of population. We use regression analysis to identify the time trend of wealth inequality and determine how warfare, significant weather events, macroeconomic variables, and shifts in population characteristics affected it. JEL Classification: D3, D6, E3, E6, I3, J1, N3, N9, O53 Key words: Wealth, Inequality, War, Weather, Ottoman Empire
    Date: 2011–12

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