nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2012‒01‒18
eighteen papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. The black-white gap in non marital fertility education and mates in segmented marriage markets By Stone, Joe A.
  2. Education policy and early fertility: Lessons from an expansion of upper secondary schooling By Grönqvist, Hans; Hall, Caroline
  3. Optimal fertility during World War I By Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
  4. Technology and the Changing Family: A Unified Model of Marriage, Divorce, Educational Attainment and Married Female Labor-Force Participation By Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Georgi Kocharkov; Cezar Santos
  5. Influence of age of child on differences in life satisfaction of males and females: Comparative study among East Asian countries. By Yamamura, Eiji
  6. Introducing an analysis of fertility recuperation and its first empirical findings about Europeans’ fertility. By Rubén Castro
  7. Bringing It All Back Home Return migration and fertility choices By Francesca MARCHETTA; Simone BERTOLI
  8. Competing marital contracts? The marriage after civil union in France By Marion Leturcq
  9. Childhood and Family Experiences and the Social Integration of Young Migrants By Olof Åslund; Anders Böhlmark; Oskar Nordström Skans
  10. Maternal Labor Market Return, Parental Leave Policies, and Gender Inequality in Housework By Pia S. Schober
  11. A gravity model of mortality rates for two related populations By Dowd, Kevin; Cairns, Andrew; Blake, David; Coughlan, Guy; Khalaf-Allah, Marwa
  12. Working-Age Adult Mortality, Orphan Status, and Child Schooling in Rural Mozambique By Mather, David
  13. “Honey, I shrunk the kids’ benefits!” — Revisiting intergenerational conflict in OECD countries. By Tim Krieger; Jens Ruhose
  14. Poverty, AIDS, Orphanhood, Gender, and Child Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review of the Evidence By Mather, David
  15. Do bankers prefer married couples? By Marion Leturcq
  16. Casual Effects of Maternal Time-Investment on children’s Cognitive Outcomes By Benjamín Villena-Rodán; Cecilia Ríos-Aguilar
  17. Aid tying and donor fragmentation By Knack, Stephen; Smets, Lodewijk
  18. Trash contracts? The impact of temporary employment on leaving the parental home in Poland. By Anna Baranowska

  1. By: Stone, Joe A.
    Abstract: This study is the first to find that mate availability explains much of the race gap in non marital fertility in the United States. Both a general and an education-based metric have strong effects. The novel statistical power arises from difference-indifferences for blacks and whites, multiple cohorts, periods, and coefficient restrictions consistent with both the data and models in which differences in mate availability can induce blacks and whites to respond in opposite directions to changes in mate availability. Results are robust to several alternative specifications and tests and appear relevant where marriages are segmented along racial, religious, or other lines.
    Keywords: fertility marriage education
    JEL: J00 A10
    Date: 2012–01–02
  2. By: Grönqvist, Hans (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Hall, Caroline (Institute for Labor Market Policy Evaluation (IFAU) and Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS))
    Abstract: This paper studies effects of education policy on early fertility. We study a major educational reform in Sweden in which vocational tracks in upper secondary school were prolonged from two to three years and the curricula were made more academic. Our identification strategy takes advantage of cross-regional and cross-time variation in the implementation of a pilot scheme preceding the reform in which several municipalities evaluated the new policy. The empirical analysis draws on rich population micro data. We find that women who enrolled in the new program were significantly less likely to give birth early in life and that this effect is driven by women with higher opportunity costs of child rearing. There is however no statistically significant effect on mens fertility decisions. Our results suggest that the social benefits of changes in education policy may extend beyond those usually claimed.
    Keywords: Schooling reform; teenage childbearing; fertility
    JEL: I20 J13
    Date: 2011–12–22
  3. By: Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
    Abstract: During World War I (1914–1918) the birth rates of countries such as France, Germany, the U.K., Belgium and Italy declined by almost 50 percent. The age structure of these countries’ populations were significantly affected for the duration of the 20th century. In France, where the population was 40 millions in 1914, the deficit of births is estimated to 1.36 millions over 4 years while military losses are estimated at 1.4 millions. In short, the fertility decline doubled the demographic impact of the War. Why did fertility decline so much? The conventional wisdom is that fertility fell below its optimal level because of the absence of men gone to war. I challenge this view using the case of France. I construct and calibrate a model of optimal fertility choice where households reaching their childbearing years on the eve of WWI face a loss of husband’s income during the War as well as an increase in the probability that the wife remains alone after the War. I calibrate this probability using the casualties sustained by the French army. The model accounts for 97% of the fertility decline even though it does not feature any physical separations of couples. It also accounts for no less than half of the increase in fertility after the War, and generates a temporary increase in the age at birth as observed in the French data. This effect of the War on the optimal level of fertility is robust to alternative calibrations.
    Keywords: Fertility ; war ; growth ; uncertainty
    JEL: J1 E1 N4
    Date: 2011–12
  4. By: Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Georgi Kocharkov; Cezar Santos
    Abstract: Marriage has declined since 1960, with the drop being bigger for non-college educated individuals versus college educated ones. Divorce has increased, more so for the non-college educated vis-à-vis the college educated. Additionally, assortative mating has risen; i.e., people are more likely to marry someone of the same educational level today than in the past. A unified model of marriage, divorce, educational attainment and married female labor-force participation is developed and estimated to fit the postwar U.S. data. The role of technological progress in the household sector and shifts in the wage structure for explaining these facts is gauged.
    JEL: E13 J12 J22 O11
    Date: 2012–01
  5. By: Yamamura, Eiji
    Abstract: Using individual-level data for China, Korea, and Japan for 2006, this research examines how the age of children influences life satisfaction for males and females in East Asian countries. Our results show that the life satisfaction of males is barely affected by a child of the relationship, whereas the life satisfaction of females with a young child is lower than that of females who do not have a child. This result holds for countries at different development stages. There is also a gender differential regarding the effect of young children on life satisfaction. Furthermore, the more developed the country, the greater this difference becomes.
    Keywords: Life satisfaction; child; East Asian countries; Ordered probit
    JEL: J13 D19 J16
    Date: 2012–01–05
  6. By: Rubén Castro (Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad Diego Portales)
    Date: 2011–06
  7. By: Francesca MARCHETTA; Simone BERTOLI
    Abstract: Return migration exerts wide-ranging influence upon the countries of origin of the migrants. We analyze whether returnees adjust their fertility choices to match the norms which prevail in their previous countries of destinations, using Egyptian household-level data. Egyptians migrate predominantly towards other Arab countries characterized by higher fertility rates. Relying on a two-step instrumental variable approach to control for the endogeneity of the migration decisions, we show that return migration has a significant and positive influence on the total number of children. These results suggest that migration might not be an unmitigated blessing for Egypt, as it has contributed to slow down the process of demographic transition.
    Keywords: temporary migration; fertility; household-level data; North Africa; Egypt
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Marion Leturcq (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - INSEE - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)
    Abstract: Large changes in marital trends during the second half of the 20th century raise the question of the reason leading to marriage in Western Europe and in Northern America: declining marriage rates, increase in cohabitation, increasing divorce rates. But the reason to get married can be diverse and can evolve over the life cycle. This paper examines is there is a demand for different marital contracts. In France, since 1999, two types of marital contracts are available: the marriage and the civil union (pacs). This paper investigates the substitution between the two contracts, by analyzing the distribution of the age at first marriage by cohort. It detects some recent changes in the bottom of the distribution of the age at first marriage, indicating a small impact of pacs on marriage. Therefore, it tends to conclude that substitution effects are likely to be very small and that the pacs reveals a demand for different marital contracts.
    Keywords: civil union, marriage, substitution, quantile regression
    Date: 2011–06
  9. By: Olof Åslund (Institute for labor market policy evaluation (IFAU), CReAM, IZA and Uppsala University); Anders Böhlmark (Institute for social research (SOFI) and CReAM); Oskar Nordström Skans (IFAU, IZA and UCLS)
    Abstract: We use sibling variation in age at migration to study how early life exposure to the host country affects social integration in adulthood. Building on a Swedish population-wide dataset, we show that early experiences affect the probability of living close to, working with, and marrying other immigrants. Segregation also decreases with parental time in the host country before the subject’s birth. The effects are permanent and do not arise through differences in education or economic outcomes. Several results instead suggest that social integration is heavily affected by preferences or cultural identities that are set during early, formative, years.
    Keywords: Immigration, integration, childhood experiences, age at migration, siblings.
    JEL: J12 J15 J13 J01
    Date: 2012–01
  10. By: Pia S. Schober
    Abstract: This study investigates how the duration of the work interruption and the labor market status of mothers upon their return affect the division of housework in couples after a birth. By observing several parental leave policy reforms in Britain and West-Germany, this research also explores how extended leave entitlements for mothers influence the division of housework. The analysis uses multilevel multiprocess models for 1220 birth events of British couples and 1785 births to German couples based on data from the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (1985-2009). The results suggest that mothers increase their housework hours with every additional month of employment interruption. Mothers' full-time return seems more effective than a short labor market time-out in altering men's housework contributions and reducing the trend towards a more traditional division of housework. Parental leave policy extensions for mothers were associated with the division of housework only indirectly through their impact on the length of women's work interruptions.
    Keywords: Parenthood, parental leave policy, maternal employment, housework, gender division of labor, Britain, Germany
    Date: 2011
  11. By: Dowd, Kevin; Cairns, Andrew; Blake, David; Coughlan, Guy; Khalaf-Allah, Marwa
    Abstract: The mortality rate dynamics between two related but different-sized populations are modeled consistently using a new stochastic mortality model that we call the gravity model. The larger population is modeled independently, and the smaller population is modeled in terms of spreads (or deviations) relative to the evolution of the former, but the spreads in the period and cohort effects between the larger and smaller populations depend on gravity or spread reversion parameters for the two effects. The larger the two gravity parameters, the more strongly the smaller population’s mortality rates move in line with those of the larger population in the long run. This is important where it is believed that the mortality rates between related populations should not diverge over time on grounds of biological reasonableness. The model is illustrated using an extension of the Age-Period-Cohort model and mortality rate data for English and Welsh males representing a large population and the Continuous Mortality Investigation assured male lives representing a smaller related population.
    Keywords: Gravity model; mortality rates; related populations
    JEL: J11
    Date: 2011
  12. By: Mather, David
    Abstract: Replaced with revised version January 11, 2012.
    Keywords: AIDS, Mozambique, adult mortality, Child Schooling, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2011–11
  13. By: Tim Krieger (University of Paderborn); Jens Ruhose (Ifo Institut)
    Abstract: Intergenerational conflicts may arise when interests of different age groups do not align. We examine cross-country data to find evidence for this conflict in OECD countries. We derive our results from a FGLS estimation model, which is complemented by a System-GMM estimation. Data covers a panel of 22 OECD countries over the time period 1985-2005. We find little support for intergenerational conflict in general; however, those who are close to (statutory) retirement age dislike public expenditure for families and education because, once they retire, they have to adapt to lower retirement income levels compared to previous work income. This effect lasts for a transitory period only.
    Keywords: Intergenerational Conflict, Family Benefits, Population Ageing, Education Expenditure, Voting, Retirement Income Shock.
    JEL: D72 H50 J13 J14 I22
    Date: 2011–12
  14. By: Mather, David
    Abstract: There is growing concern that the HIV/AIDS epidemic may reduce long-term human capital development through reductions in child schooling in SSA, thus severely limiting the longterm ability of orphans and their extended families to escape poverty. In response, some have called for targeted schooling subsidies for orphans and other children made vulnerable by HIV/AIDS, on the assumption that such children are under-enrolled. This paper provides an overview of the data sources used by existing empirical studies that test for orphan schooling deficits and the methodological challenges that they face. It then reviews the empirical evidence on the effects of orphan status or adult mortality on child schooling, as well as the prevalence of orphans in SSA and their living arrangements.
    Keywords: HIV/AIDS, child schooling, Poverty, Sub-Saharan Africa, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2011–11
  15. By: Marion Leturcq (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - INSEE - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)
    Abstract: Are married couples more credit constrained than unmarried households? If the cost of separation increases the risk of default, banks might be willing to lend to stable couples. In presence of incomplete information, marriage could be used as a signal of the quality of the match. This paper investigates the link between marriage and credit constraints. I use matching methods to evaluate the impact of marriage on credit constraints. I find that married couples are more likely to be approved for their loan, but they bear higher costs of credit. The differences between married and unmarried couples can be attributed to selection in the marriage rather than to discrimination against unmarried couples.
    Keywords: marriage, credit constraints, signal, matching estimator
    Date: 2011–04
  16. By: Benjamín Villena-Rodán; Cecilia Ríos-Aguilar
    Abstract: Many social scientists hypothesize that the time mothers spend with their children is crucial for children’s cognitive development. Unlike most studies that investigate maternal employment effects on children, we estimate direct casual effects of time-diary measured maternal time using the CDS – PSID dataset. Considering maternal time allocation endogenous, the effect of an increase of maternal time associated with a rise in childcare prime (IV estimate) is an order of magnitude larger than OLS estimates for Applied Problems and Word-Letter identification tests. Evidence also shows that the effect is larger for children living college educated mothers and in two-parent household. JEL codes: D1, J13, C36.
    Date: 2011
  17. By: Knack, Stephen; Smets, Lodewijk
    Abstract: This study tests two opposing hypotheses about the impact of aid fragmentation on the practice of aid tying. In one, when a small number of donors dominate the aid market in a country, they may exploit their monopoly power by tying more aid to purchases from contractors based in their own countries. Alternatively, when donors have a larger share of the aid market, they may have stronger incentives to maximize the development impact of their aid by tying less of it. Empirical tests strongly and consistently support the latter hypothesis. The key finding -- that higher donor aid shares are associated with less aid tying -- is robust to recipient controls, donor fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation. When recipient countries are grouped by their scores on corruption perception indexes, higher shares of aid are significantly related to lower aid tying only in the less-corrupt sub-sample. This finding is consistent with the argument that aid tying can be an efficient response by donors when losses from corruption may rival or exceed losses from tying aid. When aid tying is more costly, as proxied by donor country size and income, it is less prevalent. Aid tying is lower in the Least Developed Countries, consistent with the OECD Development Assistance Committee's recommendation to its members.
    Keywords: Gender and Health,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Disability,School Health,Economic Theory&Research
    Date: 2012–01–01
  18. By: Anna Baranowska (Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: Poland stands out in international comparisons as a country where leaving parental home is remarkably delayed. There are many economic and institutional factors which contribute to postponing residential independence among youth, such as housing shortages, the limited share of rental housing or limited social assistance for young people. However, in the public debate there is little discussion about re-designing social policy support for youth or improvement of situation on the housing market. What attracts attention instead is the role of flexibilisation of contractual arrangements on the Polish labour market. In the media discourse, fixed-term contracts have been labelled as “trash contracts” and all the problems that young people in Poland face when making transition to adulthood, have been attributed to the spread this specific employment form. This article aims to find out whether fixed-term contracts indeed hinder residential independence of youth. Models of leaving parental home are estimated based on panel data from EU-SILC. The results show no significant negative impact of temporary employment on probability of establishing one’s own household among youth. What matters is whether young people have jobs, whereas the type of contracts that they receive from employers seems to be of little importance.
    Keywords: fixed-term contracts, temporary employment, leaving parental home, transition to adulthood
    JEL: J12 J13
    Date: 2011

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