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on Demographic Economics |
|
Issue of 2012‒01‒03
35 papers chosen by Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo University of Montreal and World Bank Group |
| By: | Anna de Paoli (University of Milan Bicocca) |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of Ecuadorian young women’s households, this paper focuses on the role played by education in shaping fertility choices and labor market participation. Education, which is found to be endogenous with respect to teenage childbearing, is instrumented by a reform that took place in 1977. Then, in a model where the choices to be a mother and to be in the labor force are considered simultaneously, we find evidence that schooling is positively related to wom-en’s labor market participation rate and negatively to early motherhood. The last section concludes stressing the potential intergenerational effects of changes in the age at first birth, showing that firstborn children born to older mothers have better educational outcomes than those born to young-er ones. We find that educational policies improve women’s conditions, lowering the risk of teenage childbearing and increasing labor market attachment. |
| Keywords: | schooling, education policy, teenage fertility, labor force |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J13 J20 |
| Date: | 2011–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:319&r=dem |
| By: | Adda, Jérôme (European University Institute); Dustmann, Christian (University College London); Stevens, Katrien (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the life-cycle career costs associated with child rearing and decomposes their effects into unearned wages (as women drop out of the labor market), loss of human capital, and selection into more child-friendly occupations. We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of fertility, occupational choice, and labor supply using detailed survey and administrative data for Germany for numerous birth cohorts across different regions. We use this model to analyze both the male-female wage gap as it evolves from labor market entry onward and the effect of pro-fertility policies. We show that a substantial portion of the gender wage gap is explainable by realized and expected fertility and that the long-run effect of policies encouraging fertility are considerably lower than the short-run effects typically estimated in the literature. |
| Keywords: | fertility, labor supply, occupational choice |
| JEL: | J1 J2 J31 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6201&r=dem |
| By: | Grönqvist, Hans (Stockholm University); Hall, Caroline (Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies effects of education policy on early fertility. We study a major educational reform in Sweden in which vocational tracks in upper secondary school were prolonged from two to three years and the curricula were made more academic. Our identification strategy takes advantage of cross-regional and cross-time variation in the implementation of a pilot scheme preceding the reform in which several municipalities evaluated the new policy. The empirical analysis draws on rich population micro data. We find that women who enrolled in the new program were significantly less likely to give birth early in life and that this effect is driven by women with higher opportunity costs of child rearing. There is however no statistically significant effect on men’s fertility decisions. Our results suggest that the social benefits of changes in education policy may extend beyond those usually claimed. |
| Keywords: | Schooling reform; teenage childbearing; fertility |
| JEL: | I20 J13 |
| Date: | 2011–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2011_024&r=dem |
| By: | Grönqvist, Hans (Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University); Hall, Caroline (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies effects of education policy on early fertility. We study a major edu-cational reform in Sweden in which vocational tracks in upper secondary school were prolonged from two to three years and the curricula were made more academic. Our identification strategy takes advantage of cross-regional and cross-time variation in the implementation of a pilot scheme preceding the reform in which several municipalities evaluated the new policy. The empirical analysis draws on rich population micro data. We find that women who enrolled in the new program were significantly less likely to give birth early in life and that this effect is driven by women with higher opportunity costs of child rearing. There is however no statistically significant effect on mens ferti-lity decisions. Our results suggest that the social benefits of changes in education policy may extend beyond those usually claimed. |
| Keywords: | Schooling reform; teenage childbearing; fertility |
| JEL: | I20 J13 |
| Date: | 2011–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uulswp:2011_020&r=dem |
| By: | José Antonio Haro Peralta (Universidad de Salamanca y CSIC) |
| Abstract: | A comparative analysis of the Demographic Transition in China, Japan and South Korea is offered, aimed at identifying the peculiarities and common denominators of this proc-ess in these countries. The context within which these countries have developed the Demographic Transition has conditioned the pace and speed of the process. The causes and consequences of the recent decline in fertility rates to extremely low levels in these countries are also explored. These demographic changes have induced social and economic transformations, which are examined, and the extent to which these countries can be considered characteristic of the Second Demographic Transition is discussed as well. Finally, the impact of the demographic dividend on the recent economic growth of these countries is also analyzed, and the possible consequences of demographic aging for their future are explored. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Transition, Mortality, Fertility, Demographic Dividend, Aging |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:1110&r=dem |
| By: | Chiappori, Pierre-André (Columbia University); Oreffice, Sonia (Universidad de Alicante); Quintana-Domeque, Climent (Universidad de Alicante) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the interaction of race with physical and socioeconomic characteristics in the U.S. marriage market, using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999 to 2009 for black, white, and inter-racial couples. We consider the anthropometric characteristics of both spouses, together with their wage and education, and estimate who inter-racially marries whom along these dimensions. Distinctive patterns arise by gender and race for inter-married individuals: the black women who inter-marry are the thinner and more educated in their group; instead, white women are the fatter and less educated; black or white men who inter-marry are poorer and thinner. While women in "mixed" couples find a spouse who is poorer but thinner than if they intra-married, black men match with a white woman who is more educated than if they intra-married, and a white man finds a thinner spouse in a black woman. |
| Keywords: | interracial couples, marriage market, BMI, wages, education |
| JEL: | D1 J1 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6196&r=dem |
| By: | Julio Davila (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | If raising and educating children is a private cost to households, while the availability of skilled labor supply resulting from the households' fertility and education choices is a public good, then competitive equilibria typically deliver a suboptimal mix of size and skills of the population. In particular, households would underinvest in their children education compared to the optimal level. This is the case even if households are aware of the increase in savings returns implied by a higher supply of skilled labor and manage to coordinate to try to exploit this effect. This paper shows that a tax-financed compulsory education is unlikely to implement the optimal steady state, even if the mandatory level of education is the optimal one (the system of equations is overdetermined). Nevertheless, a pensions scheme that makes payments contingent to the household fertility and investment in its children's education can implement the first-best steady state. The pension scheme is balanced period by period by financing pensions through a payroll tax on the increase in children's labor income resulting from their parents' human capital investment. |
| Keywords: | Education, population. |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00653997&r=dem |
| By: | Julio Dávila (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | If raising and educating children is a private cost to households, while the availability of skilled labor supply resulting from the households' fertility and education choices is a public good, then competitive equilibria typically deliver a suboptimal mix of size and skills of the population. In particular, households would underinvest in their children education compared to the optimal level. This is the case even if households are aware of the increase in savings returns implied by a higher supply of skilled labor and manage to coordinate to try to exploit this effect. This paper shows that a tax-financed compulsory education is unlikely to implement the optimal steady state, even if the mandatory level of education is the optimal one (the system of equations is overdetermined). Nevertheless, a pensions scheme that makes payments contingent to the household fertility and investment in its children's education can implement the first-best steady state. The pension scheme is balanced period by period by financing pensions through a payroll tax on the increase in children's labor income resulting from their parents' human capital investment. |
| Keywords: | Education, population. |
| JEL: | J24 I25 H52 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:11069&r=dem |
| By: | Ragni Hege Kitterød, Marit Rønsen and Ane Seierstad (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | In spite of increased labour market participation in recent decades, women in Norway still have high part-time rates and seldom work more than their partners. Given that an aging population implies a projected large labour demand in many Western countries, it is important to explore potential labour market reserves among women. Utilising the panel in the Norwegian part of the EU-SILC, we ask whether an increase in the mother’s paid hours is associated with an increase or a decrease in the father’s hours, or whether there is no relationship between changes in the partners’ working hours at all. An increase from parttime to normal full time for the mother is not associated with a change in the father’s hours, but an increase from full time to very long hours for the mother corresponds to an increase in the father’s hours. A positive association between the parents’ paid hours applies first and foremost to parents with school-aged children and to couples where both partners have either long or short education. When the mother has long education and the father has short, an increase in her paid hours is associated with a decrease in his. |
| Keywords: | Dual-earners; gender equality; labour market; working hours |
| JEL: | J22 J23 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:670&r=dem |
| By: | Sanjaya DeSilva; Mohammed Mehrab Bin Bakhtiar |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Bicol region of the Phillipines, we examine why women are more educated than men in a rural, agricultural economy in which women are significantly less likely than men to participate in the labor market. We hypothesize that educational homogamy in the marriage market and cross-productivity effects in the household allow Filipino women to reap substantial benefits from schooling regardless of whether they enter the labor market. Our estimates reveal that the return to schooling for women is approximately 20 percent in both labor and marriage markets. In comparison, men experience a 12 percent return to schooling in the labor market. By using birth order, sibship size, percent of male siblings, and parental education as instruments, we correct for a significant downward bias that is caused by the endogeneity of schooling attainment. |
| Keywords: | Returns to Education; Gender; Marriage; Philippines |
| JEL: | I21 J12 J16 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_701&r=dem |
| By: | Janice Compton; Robert A. Pollak |
| Abstract: | We show that close geographical proximity to mothers or mothers-in-law has a substantial positive effect on the labor supply of married women with young children. We argue that the mechanism through which proximity increases labor supply is the availability of childcare. We interpret availability broadly enough to include not only regular scheduled childcare during work hours but also an insurance aspect of proximity (e.g., a mother or mother-in-law who can provide irregular or unanticipated childcare). Using two large datasets, the National Survey of Families and Households and the public use files of the U.S. Census, we find that the predicted probability of employment and labor force participation is 4-10 percentage points higher for married women with young children living in close proximity to their mothers or their mothers-in-law compared with those living further away. |
| JEL: | J13 J20 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17678&r=dem |
| By: | Natalie Jackson (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | This paper outlines the key demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. It ranges broadly across birth rates, life expectancy and migration to show how this converging demography will result in a regionally-disparate future. It identifies a migration-driven bite in New Zealand’s age structure across the young adult ages that is pronounced in non-urban areas, and argues that while rural regions have long lost young adults and sun-belt regions gained older, what differs is that this phenomenon is now occurring alongside population ageing, rendering such age structures no longer conducive to growth. The converging trends will not only make responding to baby boomer retirement more difficult but will increase competition for workers and push up labour and consumption costs. With the exception of larger urban areas and some retirement zones, it shows that sub national growth in much of New Zealand has already ended and that this scenario will continue to unfold until zero growth or population decline embraces all but the major urban areas. This is despite a national growth rate which is currently near equal the annual global growth rate. The paper posits that it is time to re-evaluate the question ‘when does population growth ‘end’?’ |
| Keywords: | population growth; population ageing; sub-national area |
| JEL: | J11 R23 |
| Date: | 2011–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:nidaea:wp-1&r=dem |
| By: | Marianne P. Bitler; Lucie Schmidt |
| Abstract: | Over the last several decades, both delay of childbearing and fertility problems have become increasingly common among women in developed countries. At the same time, technological changes have made many more options available to individuals experiencing fertility problems. However, these technologies are expensive, and only 25% of health insurance plans in the United States cover infertility treatment. As a result of these high costs, legislation has been passed in 15 states that mandates insurance coverage of infertility treatment in private insurance plans. In this paper, we examine whether mandated insurance coverage for infertility treatment affects utilization. We allow utilization effects to differ by age and education, since previous research suggests that older, more educated women should be more likely to be directly affected by the mandates than younger women and less educated women, both because they are at higher risk of fertility problems and because they are more likely to have private health insurance which is subject to the mandate. We find robust evidence that the mandates do have a significant effect on utilization for older, more educated women that is larger than the effects found for other groups. These effects are largest for the use of ovulation-inducing drugs and artificial insemination. |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17668&r=dem |
| By: | Verónica Amarante; Marco Manacorda; Edward Miguel; Andrea Vigorito |
| Abstract: | There is limited empirical evidence on whether unrestricted cash social assistance to poor pregnant women improves children’s birth outcomes. Using program administrative micro-data matched to longitudinal vital statistics on the universe of births in Uruguay, we estimate that participation in a generous cash transfer program led to a sizeable 15% reduction in the incidence of low birthweight. Improvements in mother nutrition and a fall in labor supply, out-of-wedlock births and mother’s smoking all appear to contribute to the effect. We conclude that, by improving child health, unrestricted unconditional cash transfers may help break the cycle of intergenerational poverty. |
| JEL: | I38 J13 J88 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17690&r=dem |
| By: | Verónica Amarante; Marco Manacorda; Edward Miguel; Andrea Vigorito |
| Abstract: | There is limited empirical evidence on whether unrestricted cash social assistance to poor pregnant women improves children's birth outcomes. Using program administrative micro-data matched to longitudinal vital statistics on the universe of births in Uruguay, we estimate that participation in a generous cash transfer program led to a sizeable 15% reduction in the incidence of low birthweight. Improvements in mother nutrition and a fall in labor supply, out-of-wedlock births and mother's smoking all appear to contribute to the effect. We conclude that, by improving child health, unrestricted unconditional cash transfers may help break the cycle of intergenerational poverty. |
| Keywords: | Poverty relief program, maternal health, cash transfers, social assistance, Uruguay, birth outcomes,Low birthweight, Cash transfer program, Nutrition |
| JEL: | J88 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1106&r=dem |
| By: | Luca Marchiori; Olivier Pierrard; Henri R. Sneessens |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the already vast literature on demography-induced international capital flows by examining the role of labor market imperfections and institutions. We setup a two-country overlapping generations model with search unemployment, which we calibrate on EU15 and US data. Labor market imperfections are found to significantly increase the volume of capital flows, because of stronger employment adjustments in comparison with a competitive economy. We next exploit themodel to investigate how demographic asymmetriesmay have contributed to unemployment and welfare changes in the recent past (1950-2010). We show that a policy reform in one country also has an impact on labor markets in other countries when capital is mobile. |
| Keywords: | demographics; capital flows; overlapping generations; general equilibrium; unemployment |
| JEL: | J11 F21 D91 C68 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp069&r=dem |
| By: | Ann Huff Stevens; Douglas L. Miller; Marianne E. Page; Mateusz Filipski |
| Abstract: | A growing literature documents cyclical movements in mortality and health. We examine this pattern more closely and attempt to identify the mechanisms behind it. Specifically, we distinguish between mechanisms that rely on fluctuations in own employment or time use and those involving factors that are external to the individual. Our investigation suggests that changes in individuals’ own behavior contribute very little to pro-cyclical mortality. Looking across broad age and gender groups, we find that own-group employment rates are not systematically related to own-group mortality. In addition, we find that most of the additional deaths that occur during times of economic growth are among the elderly, particularly elderly women, who have limited labor force attachment. Focusing on mortality among the elderly, we show that cyclicality is especially strong for deaths occurring in nursing homes, and is stronger in states where a higher fraction of the elderly reside in nursing homes. We also demonstrate that staffing in skilled nursing facilities moves counter-cyclically. Taken together, these findings suggest that cyclical fluctuations in the mortality rate may be largely driven by fluctuations in the quality of health care. |
| JEL: | I1 J6 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17657&r=dem |
| By: | He, Qichun |
| Abstract: | We consider fertility choice and weather in analyzing the effect of farmland abundance in economic development. We find that quality-adjusted agricultural land abundance may confer a type of "resource curse", in that it prolongs the tenure of an economy in the Malthusian regime. This lends new insights to Unified Growth Theory (Galor, 2011) by elucidating a particular determinant of the differential timing of the transition from Malthusian stagnation to industrialization. Moreover, opposite to the Matsuyama (1992) model, good weather is found to be a blessing for a small open economy, while it is a curse for a closed economy. |
| Keywords: | Weather; Fertility; Quality-adjusted Farmland per capita; Quality-adjusted Farmland Abundance Curse |
| JEL: | O41 O53 O13 Q15 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35420&r=dem |
| By: | Douglas Almond; Janet Currie; Mariesa Herrmann |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the links between the disease environment around the time of a woman's birth, and her health at the time she delivers her own infant. Our results suggest that exposure to disease in early childhood significantly increases the incidence of diabetes in the population of future mothers. The exposed mothers are less likely to be married, have fewer years of education, are more likely to gain over 60 pounds while pregnant, and are more likely to smoke while pregnant. Not surprisingly then, exposure increases the probability of low birth weight in the next generation, at least among whites. Among whites, this effect remains when we control for maternal behaviors as well as disease exposure. Among blacks, we find that maternal exposure reduces the incidence of low birth weight. The difference between whites and blacks may reflect a “scarring” vs. selection story; whites who go on to have children are negatively impacted, while blacks who go on to have children are positively selected having survived a higher early childhood mortality rate. |
| JEL: | I12 I14 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17676&r=dem |
| By: | Matthias Doepke; Michèle Tertilt; Alessandra Voena |
| Abstract: | Women's rights and economic development are highly correlated. Today, the discrepancy between the legal rights of women and men is much larger in developing compared to developed countries. Historically, even in countries that are now rich women had few rights before economic development took off. Is development the cause of expanding women's rights, or conversely, do women's rights facilitate development? We argue that there is truth to both hypotheses. The literature on the economic consequences of women's rights documents that more rights for women lead to more spending on health and children, which should benefit development. The political-economy literature on the evolution of women's rights finds that technological change increased the costs of patriarchy for men, and thus contributed to expanding women's rights. Combining these perspectives, we discuss the theory of Doepke and Tertilt (2009), where an increase in the return to human capital induces men to vote for women's rights, which in turn promotes growth in human capital and income per capita. |
| JEL: | J10 N30 O10 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17672&r=dem |
| By: | Pelger, Ines |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes gender differences in the investment activity of German small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). The empirical analysis is carried out on a sample of firms drawn from the KfW Mittelstandspanel, a representative survey of German SMEs for the period from 2003 to 2009. We find evidence that female-owned firms are less likely to invest and if they invest, then their average investment rate is lower. These differences cannot entirely be explained by firm or owner characteristics. Furthermore, women’s investment is less sensitive to cash flow, which indicates that it is unlikely that their lower investment is driven by difficulties in acquiring external finance. An analysis of stated investment goals reveals that women have different preferences and attitudes towards investment. They indicate to a lesser extent aspiring and growth-orientated investment goals like sales increase, innovation/R&D or implementation of new products. |
| Keywords: | Gender Economics; Female Entrepreneurship; Investment |
| JEL: | G11 J16 L26 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:12526&r=dem |
| By: | Fabrizio Botti; Marcella Corsi; Carlo D'Ippoliti |
| Abstract: | Active ageing strategies have so far strongly focussed on increasing senior workers employment rates through pension reforms to develop incentives to retire later on the one hand, and labour market policies on the other hand. Most measures are based on the dominant male trajectory of work and retirement and they are not explicitly gender mainstreamed. By contrast, a gender approach would prove fundamental to the labour market inclusion of elderly people, because in old age women suffer from the accumulated impact of the barriers to employment they encountered during their lifetime (e.g. repeated career breaks, part-time work, low pay and gender pay gap). Moreover, it appears that some pension reforms, by mandating a higher postponement of retirement and by establishing tighter links between formal employment and pension benefits may negatively affect the already high risk of poverty for elderly women. Active ageing strategies have so far strongly focussed on increasing senior workers employment rates through pension reforms to develop incentives to retire later on the one hand, and labour market policies on the other hand. Most measures are based on the dominant male trajectory of work and retirement and they are not explicitly gender mainstreamed. By contrast, a gender approach would prove fundamental to the labour market inclusion of elderly people, because in old age women suffer from the accumulated impact of the barriers to employment they encountered during their lifetime (e.g. repeated career breaks, part-time work, low pay and gender pay gap). Moreover, it appears that some pension reforms, by mandating a higher postponement of retirement and by establishing tighter links between formal employment and pension benefits may negatively affect the already high risk of poverty for elderly women. |
| Keywords: | Gender differences; Ageing; Pensions; Active labour market policies; Age management |
| JEL: | J14 J16 J71 |
| Date: | 2011–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dul:wpaper:2013/106179&r=dem |
| By: | Mario Biggeri (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche); Jean-Francois Trani; Vincenzo Mauro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines child poverty from a multidimensional perspective. The main goal is to apply a general methodology in order to measure child poverty as a deprivation of capabilities and achieved functionings. In the capability perspective, child poverty is intended as the lack of freedom to choose to do and to be what children have reason to value. Although the various approaches to conceptualising, defining and measuring poverty, several researchers underline the need for children to be separated from their adult nexus, and treated according to their own specificities. The case study is focused on Afghan children, and it is based on a survey carried out by Handicap International that took into consideration many dimensions of children’s wellbeing, including concepts that are usually missing in standard surveys. |
| Keywords: | Afghanistan, Multidimensional poverty measurement, Capability Approach, Children |
| JEL: | O53 I3 I32 J13 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2011_18.rdf&r=dem |
| By: | Fernando Ferreira; Joseph Gyourko |
| Abstract: | What are the consequences of electing a female leader for policy and political outcomes? We answer this question in the context of U.S. cities, where women’s participation in mayoral elections increased from negligible numbers in 1970 to about one-third of the elections in the 2000’s. We use a novel data set of U.S. mayoral elections from 1950 to 2005, and apply a regression discontinuity design to deal with the endogeneity of female candidacy to city characteristics. In contrast to most research on the influence of female leadership, we find no effect of gender of the mayor on policy outcomes related to the size of local government, the composition of municipal spending and employment, or crime rates. While female mayors do not implement different policies, they do appear to have higher unobserved political skills, as they have a 6-7 percentage point higher incumbent effect than a comparable male. But we find no evidence of political spillovers: exogenously electing a female mayor does not change the long run political success of other female mayoral candidates in the same city or of female candidates in local congressional elections. |
| JEL: | H0 J0 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17671&r=dem |
| By: | Nazia Mansoor |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between bargaining power and the use of contraceptives in the household. Using data from rural Bangladesh in 1998-1999 it investigates whether women in a relatively strong bargaining position at the time of marriage continue to remain in a strong position post marriage as seen by their decision to use the contraceptive pill. Empirical results from multinomial logit provide evidence for this showing that as brideprice, taken as a fraction of total household marriage payment, increases from 0.1 to 0.3 the predicted probability of the mother using the contraceptive pill increases by 8 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | marriage market; marriage payments; female bargaining power; contraceptive use; rural Bangladesh |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J16 D10 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1119&r=dem |
| By: | Matthew O. Jackson (Department of Economics, Stanford University, Santa Fe Institute, and CIFAR); Dunia López Pintado (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | We study how a behavior (an idea, buying a product, having a disease, adopting a cultural fad or a technology) spreads among agents in an a social network that exhibits segregation or homophily (the tendency of agents to associate with others similar to themselves). Individuals are distinguished by their types (e.g., race, gender, age, wealth, religion, profession, etc.) which, together with biased interaction patterns, induce heterogeneous rates of adoption. We identify the conditions under which a behavior diffuses and becomes persistent in the population. These conditions relate to the level of homophily in a society, the underlying proclivities of various types for adoption or infection, as well as how each type interacts with its own type. In particular, we show that homophily can facilitate diffusion from a small initial seed of adopters. |
| Keywords: | Diffusion, Homophily, Segregation, Social Networks |
| JEL: | D85 D83 C70 C73 L15 C45 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:11.14&r=dem |
| By: | Lena Calahorrano; Philipp an de Meulen |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of population aging on international factor flows in a political-economy framework. Political barriers to immigration in developed countries and insecure property rights in developing countries impede factor flows. Taking into account different generations’ conflicting attitudes towards immigration and expropriation, we explore how these policy barriers interact. We find that incentives to expropriate increase as more emigration from the developing country takes place. Meanwhile, the industrialized country admits less immigrants as less capital is allocated to the developing country. Furthermore, the effects of population aging on international factor flows are considerably underestimated if one does not take into consideration the interactions between immigration and expropriation policies. |
| Keywords: | Demographic change; political economy; migration; foreign direct investment |
| JEL: | D78 F21 F22 J10 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0299&r=dem |
| By: | Verena Dill; Uwe Jirjahn |
| Abstract: | Using survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study shows that immigrants living in segregated residential areas are more likely to report discrimination because of their ethnic background. This applies to both segregated areas where most neighbors are immigrants from the same country of origin as the surveyed person and segregated areas where most neighbors are immigrants from other countries of origin. The results suggest that housing discrimination rather than self-selection plays an important role in immigrant residential segregation. |
| Keywords: | Segregation, immigrants, housing discrimination, self-selection |
| JEL: | J15 J61 R23 R30 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp416&r=dem |
| By: | Blanden, Jo (University of Surrey); Gregg, Paul (University of Bristol); Macmillan, Lindsey (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Family income is found to be more closely related to sons' earnings for a cohort born in 1970 compared to one born in 1958. This result is in stark contrast to the finding on the basis of social class; intergenerational mobility for this outcome is found to be unchanged. Our aim here is to explore the reason for this divergence. We derive a formal framework which relates mobility in measured family income/earnings to mobility in social class. Building on this framework we then test a number of alternative hypotheses to explain the difference between the trends, finding evidence of an increase in the intergenerational persistence of the permanent component of income that is unrelated to social class. We reject the hypothesis that the observed decline in income mobility is a consequence of the poor measurement of permanent family income in the 1958 cohort. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational income mobility, social class fluidity, income inequality |
| JEL: | J13 J31 Z13 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6202&r=dem |
| By: | Fort, Margherita (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy); Schneeweis, Nicole (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria); Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University, Linz, and Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between education and fertility, exploiting compulsory schooling reforms in Europe as source of exogenous variation in education. Using data from 8 European countries, we assess the causal effect of education on the number of biological kids and the incidence of childlessness. We find that more education causes a substantial decrease in childlessness and an increase in the average number of children per woman. Our findings are robust to a number of falsification checks and we can provide complementary empirical evidence on the mechanisms leading to these surprising results. |
| Keywords: | Instrumental variables, education, fertility |
| JEL: | I2 J13 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:281&r=dem |
| By: | Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of racial educational inequality across US states from 1940 to 2000. We show that throughout this period, despite evidence of convergence, the racial gap in attainment between blacks and whites has been persistently determined by the initial gap. We obtain these results with 2SLS estimates where slavery is used as an instrument for the initial gap. The excludability of slavery is preliminarily established by instrumenting it with the share of disembarked slaves from the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade. Using the same approach we also find that income growth is negatively affected by the initial racial gap in education and that slavery affects growth indirectly through this channel. |
| Keywords: | development; education; inequality; race; slavery |
| JEL: | I24 J15 N31 O11 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8711&r=dem |
| By: | Chen, Ping-Yu; Chen, Chi-Chung; Chang, Chia-Lin |
| Abstract: | Heat waves and cold fronts have become frequent of late, and have caused serious disruptions around the world, especially in the mid- and high-latitudes. In future, human beings are likely to face more serious, frequent and long-lasting extreme climate events, with consequent greater damage to human life. This paper uses the multiple panel threshold model to test whether there are threshold effects between temperature and mortality, using a panel of 78 major cities in 22 OECD countries for 1990-2008. From the empirical analysis, we find that the relationship between temperature and mortality has three threshold effects, namely 15.21℉ (-9.33℃), 46.97℉ (8.32℃), and 87.53℉ (30.85℃). If the temperature is below 15.21℉ (-9.33℃), the magnitude of the temperature effect below 15.21℉ (-9.33℃) is greater than the effect between 15.21℉ (-9.33₀C) and 46.97℉ (8.32₀C). When the temperature exceeds 87.53℉ (30.85℃), higher temperature leads to higher mortality rate. Based on the estimated coefficients of mean temperatures in four regimes, we separate 78 cities into five areas with latitudes below 30°, 31°-40°, 41°-50°, and 61°-70°, and predict the impacts of future climate change on mortality for 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2100. In summer, climate is predicted to increase mortality rates for 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2100. For latitudes 41°-50° and 51°-60°, the increased mortality rate is much larger than for other latitudes. In winter, the increased magnitude induced by climate change is found to be greater than in summer. |
| Keywords: | Multiple panel threshold model; temperature; mortality rates; climate change |
| JEL: | I12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2011–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35521&r=dem |
| By: | Bertocchi, Graziella (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Dimico, Arcangelo (Queen's University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of racial educational inequality across US states from 1940 to 2000. We show that throughout this period, despite evidence of convergence, the racial gap in attainment between blacks and whites has been persistently determined by the initial gap. We obtain these results with 2SLS estimates where slavery is used as an instrument for the initial gap. The excludability of slavery is preliminarily established by instrumenting it with the share of disembarked slaves from the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade. Using the same approach we also find that income growth is negatively affected by the initial racial gap in education and that slavery affects growth indirectly through this channel. |
| Keywords: | race, inequality, education, slavery, development |
| JEL: | J15 I24 N31 O11 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6192&r=dem |
| By: | Klaus Nowotny (WIFO); Dieter Pennerstorfer (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyse the role of ethnic networks in the location decision of migrants to the EU 15 at the regional level. Using a random parameters logit specification we find a substantially positive effect of ethnic networks on the location decision of migrants. The effect is, however, decreasing in network size. Furthermore, we find evidence of spatial spillovers in the effect of ethnic networks: ethnic networks in neighbouring regions significantly help to explain migrants' choice of target regions. The positive effects of ethnic networks thus also extend beyond regional and national borders. Analysing the trade-off between potential income and network size, we find that migrants would require a sizeable compensation for living in a region with a smaller ethnic network, especially when considering regions where only few previous migrants from the same country of origin are located. |
| Keywords: | network migration, ethnic networks, random parameters |
| Date: | 2011–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2011:i:415&r=dem |
| By: | Albrecht, Konstanze (University of Bonn); Von Essen, Emma (Stockholm University); Parys, Juliane (University of Bonn); Szech, Nora (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | In a laboratory experiment, we show that subjects incorporate irrelevant group information into their evaluations of individuals. Individuals from on average worse performing groups receive lower evaluations, even if they are known to perform equally well as individuals from better performing groups. Our experiment leaves room neither for statistical nor taste-based discrimination. The discrimination we find is rather due to conservatism in updating beliefs. This conservatism is more pronounced in females. Furthermore, self-confident male evaluators overvalue male performers. Additionally, we use our data to simulate a job promotion ladder: Few rounds of moderate discrimination virtually eliminate females in higher positions. |
| Keywords: | updating, conservatism, gender, discrimination, self-confidence |
| JEL: | J16 C91 D81 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6203&r=dem |