nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2011‒12‒19
sixteen papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Do More-Schooled Women have Fewer Children and Delay Childbearing? Evidence from a Sample of U.S. Twins By Vikesh Amin; Jere R. Behrman
  2. The Career Costs of Children By Adda, Jerome; Dustmann, Christian; Stevens, Katrien
  3. Aid and Fertility: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Show? By David Cuberes; Kevin Tsui
  4. The role of marriage in the causal pathway from economic conditions early in life to mortality By van den Berg, Gerard J.; Gupta, Sumedha
  5. Fertility transitions along the extensive and intensive margins By Daniel Aaronson; Fabian Lange; Bhash Mazumder
  6. Aging and strategic learning: the impact of spousal incentives on financial literacy By Joanne W. Hsu
  7. Persistent Poverty and Children's Cognitive Development: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study By Andrew Dickerson; Gurleen Popli
  8. Demographic Divide and Labor Migration in the Euro-Mediterranean Region By Tosun, Mehmet S.
  9. Revue de la littérature sur l’évolution future de l’espérance de vie et de l’espérance de vie en santé By Robert Bourbeau; Jacques Légaré; Nadine Ouellette
  10. Gender in Transition: The Case of North Korea By Stephan Haggard; Marcus Noland;
  11. Gender Regimes and Welfare States in France: A historical perspective By Ai-Thu Dang; Jean-Marie Monnier
  12. Manager impartiality? Worker-firm matching and the gender wage gap By Hensvik, Lena
  13. Who owns the land?: Perspectives from rural Ugandans and implications for land acquisitions By Bomuhangi, Allan; Doss, Cheryl; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth
  14. The Evolution of the Racial Gap in Education and the Legacy of Slavery By Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
  15. Population, ethnicity and confession in the county of Arad in the eighteenth century and early nineteenth century By Ghita, Eugen
  16. Towards a General Theory of Environmental Inequality: Social Characteristics of Townships and the Distribution of Pollution in Chinaâs Jiangsu Province By Schoolman, Ethan D.; Ma, Chunbo

  1. By: Vikesh Amin (SUNY Binghamton); Jere R. Behrman (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: Using data on MZ (monozygotic, identical) female twins from the Minnesota Twin Registry, we estimate the causal effect of schooling on completed fertility, probability of being childless and age at first birth, using the within-MZ twins methodology. We find strong cross-sectional associations between schooling and the fertility outcomes and some evidence that more schooling causes women to have fewer children and delay childbearing, though not to the extent that interpreting cross-sectional associations as causal would imply. Our conclusions are robust when taking account of (1) endogenous within-twin pair schooling differences due to reverse causality and (2) measurement error in schooling. We also investigate possible mechanisms and find that the effect of women’s schooling on completed fertility is not mediated through husband’s schooling but rather through age at first marriage.
    Keywords: twins, twins fixed-effects, schooling, fertility
    JEL: I2 J13
    Date: 2011–12–05
  2. By: Adda, Jerome; Dustmann, Christian; Stevens, Katrien
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the life-cycle career costs associated with child rearing and decomposes their effects into unearned wages (as women drop out of the labor market), loss of human capital, and selection into more child-friendly occupations. We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of fertility, occupational choice, and labor supply using detailed survey and administrative data for Germany for numerous birth cohorts across different regions. We use this model to analyze both the male-female wage gap as it evolves from labor market entry onward and the effect of pro-fertility policies. We show that a substantial portion of the gender wage gap is explainable by realized and expected fertility and that the long-run effect of policies encouraging fertility are considerably lower than the short-run effects typically estimated in the literature.
    Keywords: Fertility; gender wage gap; labour supply; occupational choice
    JEL: J13 J22 J31
    Date: 2011–12
  3. By: David Cuberes; Kevin Tsui (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield; The John E. Walker Department of Economics, Clemson University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of foreign aid on fertility rates in recipient countries using Rajan and Subramanian’s (2008) cross-sectional and panel methods. Our cross-section results suggest that foreign aid has a positive effect on fertility. Interestingly, social sector aid (but not economic aid) is responsible for this demographic effect. The panel evidence confirms the positive effect of foreign aid on total fertility rates, and that social aid is more relevant than economic aid. Given that the literature has found no robust relationship between foreign aid and economic growth, our findings raise the possibility of an aid-induced population poverty trap.
    Keywords: foreign aid, population growth, Malthusian traps
    JEL: F35 I31 J11
    Date: 2011–12
  4. By: van den Berg, Gerard J. (IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation); Gupta, Sumedha (Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the interplay between early-life conditions and marital status, as determinants of adult mortality. We use individual data from Dutch registers (years 1815-2000), combined with business cycle conditions in childhood as indicators of earlylife conditions. The empirical analysis estimates bivariate duration models of marriage and mortality, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity and causal effects. Results show that conditions around birth and school ages are important for marriage and mortality. Men typically enjoy a protective effect of marriage on mortality, whereas women suffer during childbearing ages. Having been born under favorable economic conditions reduces female mortality during childbearing ages.
    Keywords: Death; longevity; recession; life expectancy; lifetimes; marital status; timing of events; selectivity; health
    JEL: C41 E32 I12 J14 N13 N33
    Date: 2011–11–30
  5. By: Daniel Aaronson; Fabian Lange; Bhash Mazumder
    Abstract: This paper examines the fertility transition through a new lens: the extensive margin. Parents with high levels of children might substitute quality for quantity as the constraints on quality relax or those on quantity tighten. However, along the extensive margin, the quantity-quality trade-off cannot operate. At low levels of fertility, we expect quality and quantity to be essential complements. We apply these insights to a large school construction program in the American South during the early 20th century, the Rosenwald Rural Schools Initiative. We find that increased schooling opportunities lead to reductions in fertility among women with high fertility levels, while at the same time inducing higher levels of fertility among women with low levels of fertility. The magnitude of the fertility changes induced in the parent generation is, however, small compared to the changes in fertility induced by the Rosenwald intervention among women that were themselves treated by the intervention. The evidence from the Rosenwald intervention therefore suggests that changes in female opportunity costs induced by increased educational attainment might be among the most important driving forces of the fertility transition.
    Keywords: Fertility
    Date: 2011
  6. By: Joanne W. Hsu
    Abstract: American women tend to be less financially literate than men, which is consistent with a household division of labor in which men manage finances. However, women also tend to outlive their husbands, so they will eventually need to take over this task. Using a new survey of older couples, I find that women acquire financial literacy as they approach widowhood. At an estimated increase of 0.04 standard deviations per year approaching widowhood, 80 percent of women in the sample would catch up with their husbands prior to the expected onset of widowhood. These findings reflect actual increases by women and are not merely an artifact of cognitive decline among older men. The results are consistent with a model in which the household division of labor breaks down when a spouse dies: women have incentives both to delay acquiring financial knowledge and also to begin learning before widowhood. This paper represents the first empirical examination of the financial literacy of both members of couples and provides a life-cycle interpretation of the gender gap in financial literacy.
    Date: 2011
  7. By: Andrew Dickerson; Gurleen Popli (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)
    Abstract: We use data from the four sweeps of the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) of children born at the turn of the century to document the impact that poverty, and in particular persistent poverty, has on their cognitive development in their early years. We show that children born into poverty have significantly lower test scores at age 3, age 5 and age 7, and that continually living in poverty in their early years has a cumulative negative impact on their cognitive development. For children who are persistently in poverty throughout their early years, their cognitive development test scores at age 7 are more than 10 percentile ranks lower than children who have never experienced poverty, even after controlling for a wide range of background characteristics and parenting investment.
    Keywords: child poverty, cognitive development
    JEL: I32 J13 J62
    Date: 2011–12
  8. By: Tosun, Mehmet S. (University of Nevada, Reno)
    Abstract: This paper provides a demographic outlook of the Euro-Mediterranean region and then shows the economic and fiscal consequences of such demographic differences within a two-region model with international labor mobility. International labor mobility is also examined through an externalities framework where brain drain from migration could be taxed by the home countries. Taxing the brain drain has a substantial limiting effect on labor migration and a small negative effect on per worker growth. On the other hand, it could be a solution to the negative externality problem associated with brain drain. It is also found that such tax can raise substantial tax revenue for the SMCs which could be used to enhance human capital in the region.
    Keywords: demographic divide, demographic deficit, population aging, youth bulge, labor mobility, brain drain, overlapping generations, endogenous tax policy, Mediterranean region
    JEL: E62 F22 H23 H24 H41
    Date: 2011–12
  9. By: Robert Bourbeau; Jacques Légaré; Nadine Ouellette
    Abstract: Like many industrialized countries, Canada is experiencing significant population aging and this phenomenon, inherited from the demographic transition, will intensify in the coming years. Mortality changes, especially at older ages, will contribute greatly to this phenomenon, hence the importance to be aware of the latest and forthcoming developments. It is also imperative to uncover recent and future health trends in the elderly population, and to investigate whether extra years of life gained through increased longevity will be spent in good or bad health. Thus, through this literature review, we first outline the academic debate on the future of mortality, and more specifically of life expectancy at birth. Since the debate essentially crystallized around two main competing views, one that supports sustained mortality gains in the future and one that expect instead these gains to peak, the arguments of each group and the main criticisms they face are exposed. We then provide a detailed account of a concomitant debate on the quality rather than the quantity of years lived. The three competing theories on the future of morbidity - compression of morbidity, expansion of morbidity and dynamic equilibrium - are presented and their relevance is discussed on the basis of empirical data. The difficulties inherent in defining the concepts of health and illness, and to obtain comparable indicators over time and space are highlighted.
    Keywords: mortality, morbidity, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, limit to the human life span, Canada, industrialized countries
    JEL: J11
    Date: 2011–11
  10. By: Stephan Haggard (University of California, San Diego); Marcus Noland (East-West Center & Peterson Institute of International Economics);
    Abstract: This paper uses a survey of 300 North Korean refugees to examine the experience of women in North Korea’s fitful economic transition. Like other socialist states, North Korea has maintained a de jure commitment to women's rights. However, we find that women have been disproportionately shed from state-affiliated employment and thrust into a market environment characterized by weak institutions and corruption. As a result, the state and its affiliated institutions are increasingly populated by males, and the market, particularly in its retail aspects, is dominated by women. Among the most recent cohort of refugees to leave North Korea, more than one-third of male respondents indicate that criminality and corruption is the best way to make money, and 95 percent of female traders report paying bribes to avoid the penal system. In short, the increasingly male-dominated state preys on the increasingly female-dominated market. These results paint a picture of a vulnerable group that has been disadvantaged in North Korea's transition. Energies are directed toward survival, mass civil disobedience is reactive, and as a group, this population appears to lack the tools or social capital to act collectively to improve their status.
    JEL: F
    Date: 2011–12
  11. By: Ai-Thu Dang; Jean-Marie Monnier
    Abstract: This paper has a twofold aim. First, we will analyze the system of family benefits in relation with the income tax system in France through the adoption of a historical and gender perspective. While typologies of welfare states frequently neglect taxation, in our view, one must take family taxation into account because it provides incentives and disincentives for paid income. Moreover, in the case of France, a close relationship exists between family benefits and taxation on income, one that stems from certain discussions—discussions led to the birth of the French system.Second, we will demonstrate how and to what extent France has moved away from the male-breadwinner model. However, any decline of the malebreadwinner model does not, in turn, indicate a corresponding shift toward a dual caregiver model. Indeed, the current French model has ambiguous effects on gender relations.
    Keywords: gender regimes, gender relations, unpaid work, French policy reform
    JEL: J16 J18 J21
    Date: 2011
  12. By: Hensvik, Lena (IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation)
    Abstract: This paper examines whether women benefit from working under female management using Swedish matched employer-employee panel data. I account for unobserved heterogeneity among both workers and firms potentially correlated with manager gender. The results show a substantial negative and statistically significant correlation between the proportion of female managers and the establishment’s gender wage gap. However, estimates that account for sorting on unobserved worker skills do not support that that managers favor same-sex workers in wage setting. Additional results show female-led organizations recruit more non-managerial, high-wage women but this is primarily due to (unobserved) firm attributes rather than gender-specific management practices.
    Keywords: Gender wage gap; managers; worker sorting
    JEL: J24 J31 J53
    Date: 2011–11–30
  13. By: Bomuhangi, Allan; Doss, Cheryl; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth
    Abstract: Rapid growth of demand for agricultural land is putting pressure on property rights systems, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where customary tenure systems have provided secure land access. Patterns of gradual, endogenous change toward formalization are being challenged by rapid and large-scale demands from outsiders. Little attention has focused on the gender dimensions of this transformation. Based on a study of land tenure in Uganda, this paper analyzes how different ways of defining landownership—based on household reports, existence of ownership documents, and rights over the land—provide very different indications of the gendered patterns of landownership and rights. Although many households report that husbands and wives jointly own the land, women are less likely to be listed on ownership documents, especially titles, and women have fewer land rights. A simplistic focus on title to land misses much of the reality regarding land tenure and could especially have an adverse impact on women's land rights.
    Keywords: Gender, land acquisitions, Land tenure, landownership, Property rights,
    Date: 2011
  14. By: Graziella Bertocchi; Arcangelo Dimico
    Abstract: We study the evolution of racial educational inequality across US states from 1940 to 2000. We show that throughout this period, despite evidence of convergence, the racial gap in attainment between blacks and whites has been persistently determined by the initial gap. We obtain these results with 2SLS estimates where slavery is used as an instrument for the initial gap. The excludability of slavery is preliminarily established by instrumenting it with the share of disembarked slaves from the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade. Using the same approach we also find that income growth is negatively affected by the initial racial gap in education and that slavery affects growth indirectly through this channel
    Keywords: Race; inequality; education; slavery; development;
    JEL: J15 I24 N31 O11
    Date: 2011–11
  15. By: Ghita, Eugen
    Abstract: At the beginning of the eighteenth century, Arad County contained only 25 localities in the north of Mureş River, and in the middle of the century, the administrative unit was extended by incorporating two districts of Zarand County, which would then be abolished. We made calculations on population from Arad County in its extended administrative form, but also including in these calculations the Serbian militaries’ families, who, at least until the abolition of the Tisa-Mureş military border, had an important share in these areas. The growth of Arad County population throughout the period was 13.8 times, from about 15000 inhabitants around the year 1700 to 207039 inhabitants in 1828. From this point of view, Arad is different from all the counties from Transylvania and Partium. Only Sătmar County has grown quite large, 7.6 times during 1720-1828, while Bihor County increased 5.4 times and Cluj County 3.3 times in the same range.
    Keywords: urbariums; conscriptions; population growth; demographic evolution
    JEL: J10
    Date: 2011
  16. By: Schoolman, Ethan D.; Ma, Chunbo
    Keywords: Environmental Inequality, Hukou System, Pollution, China, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Health Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, D63, J15, J61, Q53, R12, R23,
    Date: 2011–11–07

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