nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2011‒08‒29
sixteen papers chosen by
Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo
University of Montreal and World Bank Group

  1. Relative Cohort Size, Relative Income, and Women's Labor Force Participation 1968-2010 By Macunovich, Diane
  2. Your place or mine? On the residence choice of young couples in Norway By Løken, Katrine Vellesen; Lommerud, Kjell Erik; Lundberg, Shelly
  3. Effects of sex preference and social pressure on fertility in changing Japanese families By Yamamura, Eiji
  4. Untraditional caring arrangements among parents living apart. The case of Norway By Ragni Hege Kitterød and Jan Lyngstad
  5. The Miseducation of Latin American Girls: Poor Schooling Makes Pregnancy a Rational Choice By Emma Näslund-Hadley; Georgina Binstock
  6. Reexamining the Impact of Family Planning Programs on U.S. Fertility: Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X By Martha J. Bailey
  7. How the West 'Invented' Fertility Restriction By Nico Voigtländer; Hans-Joachim Voth
  8. The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth By Quamrul H. Ashraf; David N. Weil; Joshua Wilde
  9. RThe Malthusian Intermezzo - Women’s wages and human capital formation between the Late Middle Ages and the Demographic Transition of the 19th century By Jan Luiten van Zanden
  10. The fertility behaviour of East to West German migrants By Anja Vatterrott
  11. Sport and Child Development By Felfe, Christina; Lechner, Michael; Steinmayr, Andreas
  12. Adolescent pregnancies and health issues in Uttar Pradesh: Some policy implications By Rode, Sanjay
  13. WP 108 - A deeper insight into the ethnic make-up of school cohorts. Diversity and school achievement By Virginia Maestri
  14. The genealogy of Eastern European difference: an insider’s view By Mikolaj Szoltysek
  15. Internal Migration in the United States By Raven Molloy; Christopher L. Smith; Abigail K. Wozniak
  16. Does it pay to be productive ?The case of age groups By Alessandra Cataldi; Stephan K. S. Kampelmann; François Rycx

  1. By: Macunovich, Diane (University of Redlands)
    Abstract: Relative cohort size – the ratio of young to prime-age adults – and relative income – the income of young adults relative to their material aspirations, as instrumented using the income of older families their parents' age – have experienced dramatic changes over the past 40 years. Relative cohort size has been shown to cause a decline in men's relative wages – the wages of young relative to prime-age workers – due to imperfect substitutability, and the results here show that this applies perhaps even more strongly to women's relative – and absolute – starting wage. Relative cohort size first declined by 30% and then increased by 47%. Results here show that those changes explain about 60% of the declines in women's starting wage – both relative and absolute – in the first period, and 100% of its increase in the second. Relative income is hypothesized to affect a number of demographic choices by young adults, including marriage, fertility and female labor force participation, as young people strive to achieve their desired standard of living. Older family income – the denominator in a relative income variable – increased by 58.6% between 1968 and 2000, and then declined by 9%. Its changes explain 66% of the increase in the labor force participation of women in their first five years out of school between 1968 and 2000, and 75% of its decline thereafter. The study makes use of individual-level measures of labor force participation, with instrumented wages, and employs the lagged income of older families in a woman’s year-state-race-education group to instrument parental income and hence material aspirations.
    Keywords: women's labor force participation, relative income, relative cohort size, sex ratio, women's hours worked
    JEL: J22
    Date: 2011–08
  2. By: Løken, Katrine Vellesen (University of Bergen); Lommerud, Kjell Erik (University of Bergen); Lundberg, Shelly (University of Washington)
    Abstract: Norwegian registry data is used to investigate the location decisions of a full population cohort of young adults as they complete their education, establish separate households and form their own families. We find that the labor market opportunities and family ties of both partners affect these location choices. Surprisingly, married men live significantly closer to their own parents than do married women, even if they have children, and this difference cannot be explained by differences in observed characteristics. The principal source of excess female distance from parents in this population is the relatively low mobility of men without a college degree, particularly in rural areas. Despite evidence that intergenerational resource flows, such as childcare and eldercare, are particularly important between women and their parents, the family connections of husbands appear to dominate the location decisions of less-educated married couples.
    Keywords: intergenerational; proximity; marriage; location; decisions intergenerational proximity; marriage; location decisions
    JEL: J12 J16 J61
    Date: 2011–03–15
  3. By: Yamamura, Eiji
    Abstract: This study explored how social pressure related to parental preference for the sex of their children affects fertility. Pre-war and post-war generations were compared using individual level data previously collected in Japan in 2002. In the pre-war generation, if the first child was a daughter, the total number of children tended to increase not only when the mother preferred a son, but also when the mother did not have a preference for either gender. This tendency was not observed for the post-war generation. Results suggest that social pressure related to giving birth to a son led to high fertility in the pre-war generation; however, fertility was not influenced by social pressure in the post-war generation. This was because of a change in the influence of the traditional marriage system.
    Keywords: Fertility; son preference; social pressure; family structure
    JEL: J13 J12 J16
    Date: 2011–08–18
  4. By: Ragni Hege Kitterød and Jan Lyngstad (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: In spite of more symmetric parental roles in couples, shared residence is still practiced by a minority of parents following partnership dissolution in Norway, and the same is true for father sole custody. Utilising a survey of parents living apart in 2004, we find that shared residence is particularly likely when the father has a medium or high income, the mother is highly educated, the parents split up rather recently, the mother is currently married and the parents have no other children in their present households. Father sole custody is most likely when the mother has low income, the father has high income, the parents were formally married prior to the breakup, the child is a boy, the child is fairly old, the father is single and the mother has children in her current household. More equal parenting roles in couples in younger generations as well as policies urging parents to collaborate about their children’s upbringing when they split up, may lead to an increase in shared residence in the years to come, and perhaps also to new groups of parents practicing such an arrangement.
    Keywords: Father sole custody; gender equality; parents living apart; shared residence.
    JEL: J12 J13
    Date: 2011–08
  5. By: Emma Näslund-Hadley; Georgina Binstock
    Abstract: Our interest in understanding the determinants of adolescent childbearing and how adolescent childbearing influences educational trajectories derive from a concern about the inverse relationship between educational outcomes and adolescent fertility. Through in-depth interviews with 118 women, we contrast the educational trajectories of adolescent and adult childbearers in urban neighborhoods in Paraguay and Peru. The findings suggest that adolescents who face obstacles that discourage academic achievement and high aspirations in life are also more likely to bear children.
    Keywords: Education
    Date: 2011–01
  6. By: Martha J. Bailey
    Abstract: Almost 50 years after domestic U.S. family planning programs began, their effects on childbearing remain controversial. Using the county-level roll-out of these programs from 1964 to 1973, this paper reevaluates their shorter- and longer-term effects on U.S. fertility rates. I find that the introduction of family planning is associated with significant and persistent reductions in fertility driven both by falling completed childbearing and childbearing delay. Although federally-funded family planning accounted for a small portion of the post-baby boom U.S. fertility decline, the estimates imply that they reduced childbearing among poor women by 21 to 29 percent.
    JEL: J1 J13 J18
    Date: 2011–08
  7. By: Nico Voigtländer; Hans-Joachim Voth
    Abstract: Europeans restricted their fertility long before the 'Demographic Transition.' By raising the marriage age of women and ensuring that a substantial proportion remained celibate, the "European Marriage Pattern" (EMP) reduced childbirths by up to 40% between the 14th and 18th century. In a Malthusian environment, this translated into lower population pressure, raising average wages significantly, which in turn laid the foundation for industrialization. We analyze the rise of this first socio-economic institution in history that limited fertility through delayed marriage. Our model emphasizes changes in agricultural production following the Black Death in 1348-50. The land-intensive production of meat, wool, and dairy (pastoral products) increased, while labor-intensive grain production declined. Women had a comparative advantage producing pastoral goods. They often worked as servants in husbandry, where they remained unmarried long after they had left the parental household. The emergence of EMP enabled Europe to shift from a high-fertility, low income to a low-fertility, high income Malthusian steady state. We demonstrate the importance of this effect in a calibration of our model and show why the same shock to population did not have similar consequences in China.
    JEL: E20 N13 N33 O14 O41
    Date: 2011–08
  8. By: Quamrul H. Ashraf (Williams College); David N. Weil (Brown University); Joshua Wilde (University of South Florida)
    Abstract: We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of an intervention that immediately reduces TFR by 1.0, using current Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that an immediate decline in the TFR of 1.0 will raise output per capita by approximately 13.2 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 25.4 percent at a horizon of 50 years.
    Keywords: Fertility, Population size, Age structure, Child quality, Worker experience, Labor force participation, Capital accumulation, Natural resources, Income per capita
    JEL: E17 J11 J13 J18 J21 J22 J24 O11 O13 O55
    Date: 2011–08
  9. By: Jan Luiten van Zanden
    Abstract: Why did the European Marriage Pattern that emerged in the North-Sea region in the late Medieval Period not result in a continuous shift from ‘quantity’ to ‘quality’? This paper addresses this question focusing on the changing labour market position of women in England between 1500 and 1800. It is demonstrated that the gender wage gap increased strongly in this period; wages of women working in agriculture fell from about 80% to 40% of the wages of an unskilled labourer. This was probably the result of a decline in the demand for female labour in this period due to changes in the structure of agriculture, and was possibly also related from the movement from a labour scarcity economy in the 15th century to a labour surplus economy in 18th and early 19th century. This decline in female labour participation and in particular in the relative wages earned by women had important consequences for demographic behaviour and investment in human capital of children. It helps to explain the ‘baby boom’ of the second half of the 18th century, and the stagnation in human capital formation that occurred at the same time – in short, it contributes to the understanding of the ‘Malthusian intermezzo’ of this period.
    Keywords: Demographic change, European Marriage Pattern, Female wage gap, Female labour participation
    Date: 2011–08
  10. By: Anja Vatterrott (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: In the twenty years since the reunification of Germany, we have seen a convergence of total fertility rates in the eastern and western parts of the country, but differences remain in the timing, number and spacing of births. Our aim in this paper is to better understand the persistence of these differences by studying the fertility behaviour of migrants from the East to the West. Millions of people have followed this migration path in recent decades, mainly in response to the unfavourable economic conditions in the East. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel of the years 1990 to 2009. Using event history modelling, we analyse whether the first and second birth behaviours of female East-West German migrants resemble the patterns of one of the non-mobile populations in the eastern or western parts of the country. We find that migrants’ first and second birth risks lie in between those of non-mobile eastern and western Germans. Socio-economic characteristics, value orientations and partners’ characteristics are employed as explanatory variables, but do not fully account for the differences between the three groups. We investigate whether the special behavioural patterns of migrants can be explained by the fact that they are a selected group, but do not find support for this hypothesis.
    Keywords: Germany, fertility, internal migration
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2011–08
  11. By: Felfe, Christina; Lechner, Michael; Steinmayr, Andreas
    Abstract: Despite the relevance of cognitive and non-cognitive skills for professional success, their formation is not yet fully understood. This study fills part of this gap by analyzing the role of sports club participation, one of the most popular extra-curricular activities, on children’s skill development. Our results indicate positive effects: school performance improves by 0.20 standard deviations and overall non-cognitive skills by 0.09 standard deviations. The results are robust when using alternative datasets as well as alternative estimation and identification strategies. The effects can be partially explained by increased physical activities replacing passive leisure activities.
    Keywords: Skill formation, non-cognitive skills, physical activity, semi-parametric estimation
    JEL: J24 J13 I12
    Date: 2011–08
  12. By: Rode, Sanjay
    Abstract: In the globalization era, adolescent pregnancies have become an important health issue. Teenage mothers have bigger disadvantage in terms of socio-economic factors. In Uttar Pradesh teenage mothers are found in the poorer households with less education. The logistic regression shows that odd ratio for the teenage mothers are more in rural area. The odd is higher for scheduled caste, tribe and other backward caste as compare to other caste households. The adolescent mothers of low standard of living index has higher odd ratio as compare to the adolescent mothers of higher standard of living index. Teenage mothers do not use the family planning methods and prenatal care. They do not deliver the baby in the health care facility and breastfeed their baby immediately after the delivery. The odd ratio is higher for no breastfeeding after child birth. In order to reduce the teenage pregnancy, government of Uttar Pradesh must generate more self employment opportunities to women and girls. The vocational training will improve the employment possibilities among adolescent girls. Government must provide the health care facilities to the poorer households. Such policies will reduce the adolescent pregnancies in the state.
    Keywords: Pregnancies; fertility; employment
    JEL: J13 J1
    Date: 2011–03–04
  13. By: Virginia Maestri (AIAS, Universiteit van Amsterdam)
    Abstract: While the share of non-native students in a class is expected to have a non positive effect on school achievement, little is said about the heterogeneity of the ethnic minority make-up. Ethnic diversity can stimulate the creativity of students, can push them to be proficient in the instructional language, can reduce the scope of ethnic identification with all its possible drawbacks, but it may also worsen social interactions among pupils and make the job of teachers more difficult. We exploit the within school cohort variation in ethnic diversity of a rich data-set about primary education in the Netherlands to investigate whether ethnic diversity matters for school achievement, for whom it matters and which can be the other mechanisms it may generate. We find that ethnic diversity has a positive impact on the test scores of minority students, especially for language skills and older students. We also find a negative relationship between ethnic diversity and the school social environment.
    Keywords: ethnic diversity; education; peer effects JEL classification: I21; I28; J15
    Date: 2011–01
  14. By: Mikolaj Szoltysek (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The view of Eastern Europe as a locus of complex family organisation and familistic societal values has reached the status of general dogma in Western social sciences and demography. By offering an overview of almost entirely unknown scholarly achievements of Eastern Europeanists, this essay represents an attempt to persuade scholars to accept less stereotypical images of families from outside ‘Western Europe’. Well into the late 1990s, Eastern European literature on family forms remained screened off from the main current of European thought. Thus, not surprisingly, tracing the lineage of work from east of the ostensible Hajnal Line reveals the sharp differences between the findings of Eastern European researchers and the dominant assumptions of Western science. These marginalised discourses need to be integrated into mainstream research and discussion, so that scholars can better understand marriage, family, household and community patterns in Europe and elsewhere. The diversity of family forms and the rhythms of their development in historical Eastern Europe revealed in this literature also provide us with an excellent opportunity to free ourselves from a simplistic view of the continent’s familial history, and particularly from the one implied by the notion of a ‘dividing line’.
    Keywords: family forms, historical demography, household composition, marriage
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2011–08
  15. By: Raven Molloy; Christopher L. Smith; Abigail K. Wozniak
    Abstract: We review patterns in migration within the US over the past thirty years. Internal migration has fallen noticeably since the 1980s, reversing increases from earlier in the century. The decline in migration has been widespread across demographic and socioeconomic groups, as well as for moves of all distances. Although a convincing explanation for the secular decline in migration remains elusive and requires further research, we find only limited roles for the housing market contraction and the economic recession in reducing migration recently. Despite its downward trend, migration within the US remains higher than that within most other developed countries.
    JEL: J1 J61 R23
    Date: 2011–08
  16. By: Alessandra Cataldi; Stephan K. S. Kampelmann; François Rycx
    Abstract: Using longitudinal matched employer-employee data for the period 1999-2006, we investigate the relationship between age, wage and productivity in the Belgian private sector. More precisely, we examine how changes in the proportions of young (16-29 years), middle-aged (30-49 years) and older (more than 49 years) workers affect the productivity of firms and test for the presence of productivity-wage gaps. Results (robust to various potential econometric issues, including unobserved firm heterogeneity, endogeneity and state dependence) suggest that workers older than 49 are significantly less productive than prime age and young workers. In contrast, the productivity of middle-age workers is not found to be significantly different compared to young workers. Findings further indicate that average hourly wages within firms increase significantly and monotonically with age. Overall, this leads to the conclusion that young workers are paid below their marginal productivity while older workers appear to be “overpaid” and lends empirical support to theories of deferred compensation over the life-cycle (Lazear, 1979).
    Keywords: Wages; productivity; aging; matched panel data
    JEL: J14 J24 J31
    Date: 2011–08–18

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