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on Demographic Economics |
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Issue of 2011‒08‒02
eleven papers chosen by Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo University of Montreal and World Bank Group |
| By: | Kati Schindler; Tilman Brück |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to study the short and long-term fertility effects of mass violent conflict on different population sub-groups. The authors pool three nationally representative demographic and health surveys from before and after the genocide in Rwanda, identifying conflict exposure of the survivors in multiple ways. The analysis finds a robust effect of genocide on fertility, with a strong replacement effect for lost children. Having lost siblings reduces fertility only in the short term. Most interesting is the continued importance of the institution of marriage in determining fertility and in reducing fertility for the large group of widows in Rwanda. |
| Keywords: | conflict, demography, fertility, gender, genocide, Rwanda |
| JEL: | J13 O12 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1143&r=dem |
| By: | Heinz, Matthias; Juranek, Steffen; Rau, Holger A. |
| Abstract: | We analyze dictator allocation decisions in an experiment where the recipients have to earn the pot to be divided with a real-effort task. As the recipients move before the dictators, their effort decisions resemble the first move in a trust game. Depending on the recipients' performance, the size of the pot is either high or low. We compare this real-effort treatment to a baseline treatment where the pot is a windfall gain and where a lottery determines the pot size. In the baseline treatment, reciprocity cannot play a role. We find that female dictators show reciprocity and decrease their taking-rates significantly in the real-effort treatment. This treatment effect is larger when female dictators make a decision on recipients who successfully generated a large pot compared to the case where the recipients performed poorly. By contrast, there is no treatment effect with male dictators, who generally exhibit more sefish behavior. -- |
| Keywords: | Gender,Reciprocity,Dictator Game,Real Effort |
| JEL: | C72 C91 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:24&r=dem |
| By: | Kaygusuz, Remzi |
| Abstract: | In the past decades, elimination of the pay-as-you-go system in U.S. has been extensively discussed and studied. Such an elimination would also eliminate the intra-cohort redistribution done by the following policies of social security. Due to spousal and survivor's benefit provisions, the system redistributes (mostly) to single-earner married households (not necessarily progressive). Retirement benefits are a concave function of past mean earnings. Hence, the system redistributes from high earners to low earners. Finally, the existence of a cap on social security taxable earnings makes the system regressive. This is the first paper that quantifies redistributive, labor supply, and welfare implications of these policies using a general equilibrium life-cycle model. Agents start out as permanently married or single and with education levels and wage profiles, where the latter depend both on education and gender. The household is the decision maker and decides on the labor supply of its member(s) and saving. The aggregate production function has as inputs capital and labor aggregated by efficiency. Elimination of these policies results in a 6.1% increase in married female labor force participation rate. The middle-income single-earner married households experience the largest welfare losses whereas the high-income two-earner households together with high-income single households experience the largest welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | Social Security; Two-earner households; Labor Force Participation |
| JEL: | E62 H55 H31 J12 |
| Date: | 2011–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32358&r=dem |
| By: | Ilyana Kuziemko |
| Abstract: | I develop a model in which a child's acquisition of a given form of human capital incentivizes adults in his household to either learn from him (if children act as teachers then adults' cost of learning the skill falls) or lean on him (if children's human capital substitutes for that of adults in household production then adults' benefit of learning the skill falls). I exploit regional variation in two shocks to children's human capital and examine the effect on adults. The rapid introduction of primary education for black children in the South during Reconstruction not only increased literacy of children but also of adults living in the same household ("learning" outweighs "leaning"). Conversely, the 1998 introduction of English immersion in California public schools appears to have increased the English skills of children but discouraged adults living with them from acquiring the language ("leaning" outweighs "learning"). Whether family members learn from or lean on each other has implications for the externalities associated with education policies. |
| JEL: | H23 I2 I28 J12 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17235&r=dem |
| By: | Carlo Favero; Marco Giacoletti |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a model to forecast future mortality that includes information on the limits to life and on progress in medicine. We apply the model to forecasting future mortality and survival rates for the males population in England andWales. Our proposal extends the benchmark stochastic mortality model along two dimensions. First, we try and deal explicitly with tail risk in the cross-sectional estimation. by including information about the "limit to life" in the sample used to construct factors for the cross-sectional dimension of mortality rates. Second, we propose to substitute the usual stochastic trend model adopted for the time series of risk factors with a predictive framework based on available evidence on medical progress and causes of death. The model projects very little variability for limits to life over the next ten years and predicts that in 2020 the probability that an individual age 65 will survive until 85 is 20% with an upper bound of 23% and a lower bound of 17%. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:406&r=dem |
| By: | J.S. Cramer (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This technical note consists of three parts. The first describes the origins of the Brabant data set, the later surveys and the mortality data. The second section discusses the variation of mortality rates with age in the population and in the sample. The third section sets out the proportional hazard model that has been used in the analysis and its estimation. |
| Keywords: | IQ; mortality |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2011–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110098&r=dem |
| By: | Lena Calahorrano |
| Abstract: | In the face of rising old-age dependency ratios in industrialized countries like Germany, politicians and their electorates discuss the loosening of immigration policies as one policy option to ensure the sustainability of public social security systems. The question arises whether this policy option is feasible in aging countries: older individuals are typically found to be more averse to immigration. However, cross-sectional investigations may confound age with cohort effects. This investigation uses the 1999-2008 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel to separate the effect of age on immigration attitudes from cohort and also from time effects. Over the life cycle stated immigration concerns are predicted to increase well into retirement and decrease afterward. Relative to other issues, immigration concerns are found to actually decrease over the life cycle. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, demographic change, political economy |
| JEL: | D78 F22 J10 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp389&r=dem |
| By: | Mark Dean; Daniel Martin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we introduce a new measure of how close a set of choices are to satisfying the observable implications of rational choice, and apply it to a large balanced panel of household level consumption data. We use this method to answer three related questions: (i) "How close are individual consumption choices to satisfying the model of utility maximization?" (ii) "Are there di¤erences in rationality between di¤erent demographic groups?" (iii) "Can choices be aggregated across individuals under the assumption of homogeneous preferences?" Crucially, in answering these questions, we take into account the power of budget sets faced by each household to expose failures of rationality. To summarize our results we ?nd that: (i) while observed violations of rationality are small in absolute terms, our households are only moderately more rational than the benchmark of random choice; (ii) there are signi?cant di¤erences in the rationality of di¤erent groups, with multi-head households more rational than single head households, and the youngest households more rational than middle age households; (iii) the assumption of homogenous preferences is strongly rejected: choice data that is aggregated across households exhibits high levels of irrationality. |
| Keywords: | # |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bro:econwp:2011-11&r=dem |
| By: | J.S. Cramer (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | The Brabant Data Set, now freely accessible, contains information on a sample cohort of 3,000 individuals born around 1940 from surveys in 1952, 1983 and 1993, as well as on deaths between 1994 and 2009. In line with numerous epidemiological studies we find that among the early variables recorded at age 12 the only significant determinant of adult mortality is intelligence. Preliminary attempts to trace this effect in the later surveys are not successful. |
| Keywords: | IQ; mortality |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2011–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110097&r=dem |
| By: | Quisumbing, Agnes R. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines asset dynamics for husband-owned, wife-owned, and jointly owned assets, using unique longitudinal survey data from rural Bangladesh. Nonparametric and parametric methods are used to examine the shape of the dynamic asset frontier, the number of equilibria, and whether land and nonland asset stocks converge to such equilibria. The paper also investigates the differential impact of negative shocks and positive events on husbands', wives', and jointly owned assets. Husbands' and wives' asset stocks are drawn down for different kinds of shocks, with husbands' assets being liquidated in response to death of a household member and dowry and wedding expenses, and both husbands' and wives' assets being negatively affected by illness shocks. The paper concludes by drawing out implications for the design of gender-sensitive social protection mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Asset dynamics, Gender, Poverty traps, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1096&r=dem |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have indicated that densely populated cities enhance the productivity of workers through knowledge spillover and superior matching with employers in the labor market. This paper quantitatively analyzes the relationship among urban density, human capital, and wages by using micro data from the <i>Basic Survey on Wage Structure</i> for the years from 1990 to 2009. According to the estimation of standard wage functions augmented with population density, the agglomeration premium is larger for workers with higher observable skills such as education, tenure, and potential experience, which suggests rapid learning and superior matching in densely populated cities. Under structural changes such as a declining population and the trend toward a knowledge-based service economy, forming densely populated areas by facilitating the migration of workers has desirable effects throughout Japan on both individual wages and firm productivity. |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:11060&r=dem |