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on Demographic Economics |
|
Issue of 2011‒07‒27
twenty-two papers chosen by Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo University of Montreal and World Bank Group |
| By: | Pietro Peretto; Simone Valente |
| Abstract: | We study the interactions between technological change, resource scarcity and population dynamics in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous fertility. There exists a pseudo-Malthusian equilibrium in which population is constant and income grows exponentially: the equilibrium population level is determined by resource scarcity but is independent of technology. The stability properties are driven by (i) the income reaction to increased resource scarcity and (ii) the fertility response to income dynamics. If labor and resources are substitutes in production, income and fertility dynamics are self-balancing and the pseudo-Malthusian equilibrium is the global attractor of the system. If labor and resources are complements, income and fertility dynamics are self-reinforcing and drive the economy towards either demographic explosion or human extinction. Introducing a minimum resource requirement, we obtain a second steady state implying constant population even under complementarity. The standard result of exponential population growth appears as a rather special case of our model. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous Innovation, Resource Scarcity, Population Growth, Fertility Choices |
| JEL: | E10 L16 O31 O40 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duk:dukeec:11-12&r=dem |
| By: | Peter Haan; Victoria Prowse |
| Abstract: | How can public pension systems be reformed to ensure fiscal stability in the face of increasing life expectancy? To address this pressing open question in public finance, we estimate a life-cycle model in which the optimal employment, retirement and consumption decisions of forward-looking individuals depend, inter alia, on life expectancy and the design of the public pension system. We calculate that, in the case of Germany, the fiscal consequences of the 6.4 year increase in age 65 life expectancy anticipated to occur over the 40 years that separate the 1942 and 1982 birth cohorts can be offset by either an increase of 4.34 years in the full pensionable age or a cut of 37.7% in the per-year value of public pension benefits. Of these two distinct policy approaches to coping with the fiscal consequences of improving longevity, increasing the full pensionable age generates the largest responses in labor supply and retirement behavior. |
| Keywords: | Life expectancy, public pension reform, retirement, employment, life-cycle models, consumption, tax and transfer system |
| JEL: | D91 J11 J22 J26 J64 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1140&r=dem |
| By: | Rahim, Fazeer; Tavares, José |
| Abstract: | We present a growth model where savings, fertility, labour force participation and gender wage discrimination are endogenously determined. Households consist of husband and wife, who disagree on how to allocate resources to their individual consumption. Household decisions are made by bargaining and the bargaining power of each spouse depends on the market income he/she brings home. This provides the basis for the reluctance of men to grant women equal access to labour markets despite the fact that this hurts them in terms of reduced family income. Economic development makes discrimination costlier, initiating a positive cycle of high female participation, low fertility and high growth. Our empirical study is in two parts. Firstly, we use cross-country micro data to test the hypothesis that development is negatively related to male 'preference for discrimination'. We show that men's views converge to those of women over the development process and that, for low levels of income, a large majority of men have discriminatory views. Our conclusion is that a turning point occurs at an annual per capita GDP of around $15000. Secondly, we exploit the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 to find out what cause individuals to change their discriminatory preferences over time. -- |
| Keywords: | Economic Development,Fertility,Female Labor Force Participation,Gender Discrimination |
| JEL: | D13 J7 J13 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:69&r=dem |
| By: | Priebe, Jan |
| Abstract: | Over the last two decades Indonesia has experienced a significant decline in fertility rates and substantial increases in the level of education of women. Despite this development female labor force participation rates have remained roughly constant throughout this period. This paper explores the causes for the seeming unresponsiveness of female labor supply to changes in fertility. The empirical analysis is performed using annual data from the national household survey Susenas for the period 1993-2008. The final sample comprises about 850,000 woman aged 21 to 35 with at least two children. Identification of causal effects builds upon the empirical strategy as outlined in Angrist and Evans (1998). The results suggest that a considerable share of women in Indonesia works in the labor market in order to finance basic expenditures on their children. Therefore, reductions in fertility rates seem to have led to two opposing effects that contributed to aggregate levels of female labor supply being constant. While some women were more likely to participate in the labor market due to a lower number of children, others might now lack the need to engage in the labor market due to a relaxation in their budget constraint. -- |
| Keywords: | Causality,Child Costs,Indonesia,Labor Supply,LATE |
| JEL: | C21 D01 J13 J20 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:67&r=dem |
| By: | Rouanet, Léa |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between height stature and child mortality in West Africa. This is motivated by two things: understanding the determinants of height, widely used health indicator, and explaining the « double African paradox ». This paradox comes from the fact that Africans are relatively tall in spite of extremely unfavorable income and disease environments; this the level paradox. The second paradox is that African height stature decreased in recent years, despite better health conditions and lower child mortality; this is the trend paradox. These stylized facts are surprising as both child mortality and height stature are viewed as health indicators, so that we expect a negative correlation between the two. To study this paradox, we focus on West African countries only, where child mortality levels are very high. For Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria and Senegal, we use DHS (Demographic and Health Surveys) data to measure child mortality (before 5) at the region X period level using the retrospective birth history of mothers. We want to test to what extent the paradox can be explained by selective child mortality. More generally, there is a need to understand how much child mortality levels and trends affect the study of height stature in Africa. Instrumentation can not be used in our context as we would need an event that increases or decreases mortality without affecting nutrition and regardless the distribution of heights. Consequently, we build a statistical model that we estimate linearly and nonlinearly. We first show that the correlation between adult height and mortality within region is not significantly negative in our setting. By estimating a nonlinear relationship between height and child mortality, we show that in high mortality contexts, when child mortality decreases selective mortality decreases as well, so that more short people survive. We are able to explain some differences in height levels between African countries and countries where selective mortality is lower. We also manage to explain why height stature did not increase as much as expected in Africa compared to the decrease in child mortality rates in the second half of the 20th century. -- |
| Keywords: | Height,Child Mortality,Selection,West Africa |
| JEL: | I1 I3 J1 O1 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:71&r=dem |
| By: | Gaëlle Ferrant (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I) |
| Abstract: | This paper assumes that gender inequality hinders economic and human development : a one standard deviation change in the Gender Inequality Index (GII) will increase long term income per capita by 9,1% and Human Development Index (HDI) by 4%. Gender inequality may be a explanation of economic development differences : 16% of the long term income difference between South Asia and East Asia & Pacific can be accounted for by the difference in gender inequality. Moreover, this paper provides evidence of a vicious circle between gender inequality and long term income. The multi-dimensional concept of gender inequality is measured by a composite index with endogenous weightings : the Gender Inequality Index (GII). To correct endogeneity and simultaneity problems, the two-stage and three-stage least square methods are used separately. In this way, the steady state per capita income and the human development levels are estimated for 109 developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Gender inequality, development economics. |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00609828&r=dem |
| By: | Giovanni Andrea Cornia; Luca Tiberti; Stefano Rosignoli; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre |
| Abstract: | The years 2000-2007 witnessed an average decline in U5MR in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faster than that recorded during the prior two decades, including in countries with high HIV prevalence rates due to the spread of preventative and curative measures. Despite their gravity, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the 2008-2009 crises on child mortality is still lacking, and estimates of the number of additional child deaths caused by the crises in SSA vary enormously. |
| Keywords: | economic crisis; food shortage; infant mortality; |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa633&r=dem |
| By: | Tsukada, Raquel |
| Abstract: | Being the first born of a family entails inherent responsibilities. Sociologists, psychologists and economists have long argued that the first born's receive differentiated treatment within the household. This paper tests and quantifies the existence of a disproportionate workload over the oldest child in poor households: we call it the first born burden. We are concerned with the determinants of such work burden, and we analyze how access to basic infrastructure could release children from work. The empirical results for rural areas in Ghana confirm a systematic selection of first born's to work. Although access to infrastructure may not reallocate evenly the workload among siblings, it indeed relaxes the children's time constraints. -- |
| Keywords: | child labor,time allocation,birth order,infrastructure,water |
| JEL: | J22 D13 J1 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:77&r=dem |
| By: | Yamamura, Eiji |
| Abstract: | Empirical results from a random-effects regression model show that ethnic heterogeneity has a negative effect on growth. The negative effect is seen largely in the hampering of efficiency improvements, but not capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic fractionalization; Ethnic polarization; Efficiency improvement; Capital accumulation; Random-effects model. |
| JEL: | H11 O43 |
| Date: | 2011–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32253&r=dem |
| By: | Claire Loupias (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - Université d'Evry-Val d'Essonne, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales); Bertrand Wigniolle (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | This paper suggests a new explanation for changes in economic and population growth with a long run perspective, emphasizing the role of land in the development process. Starting from a pre-industrialization state called the "Malthusian regime&qot;, land and labor are the main production factors. The size of population is limited by the quantity of land available for households and by incomes. Technical progress driven by a "Boserupian effect" may push the economy towards a take-off regime. In this regime, capital accumulation begins and a "learning-by-doing" effect in production takes over from the "Boserupian effect". If this effect is strong enough, the economy can reach an "ultimate growth regime". In the different phases, land plays a crucial role. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous fertility, land, endogenous growth. |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00609811&r=dem |
| By: | Thuan Quang Thai (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Evangelos M. Falaris |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of early life conditions, proxied by rainfall shocks, on schooling and height in rural Vietnam. Our measure of rainfall shock is defined as deviations from the long-run average. Vietnamese rural dwellers engage in rain-fed crop production, mostly irrigated paddy rice. Sufficient annual rainfall could play an important role in the harvest and thus, the household income. Nutritional deficiencies resulting from the household's income shocks may have negative consequences on health. We find that negative rainfall shocks during gestation delays school entry and slows progress through school. In addition, negative rainfall shocks in the third year of life affects adversely both schooling and height. The effects differ by region in ways that reflect differing constraints on families that are shaped by regional economic heterogeneity. We predict that policies that help rural families smooth income shocks will result in increases in human capital and in substantial cumulative returns in productivity over the life course. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, child nutrition, early childhood, school enrolment |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-011&r=dem |
| By: | Amare, Mulubrhan; Hohfeld, Lena; Waibel, Hermann |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effects of rural urban migration on economic development in Thailand. It draws upon a panel data base of some 2000 rural households collected from 2007 to 2010 in three provinces from Northeast Thailand and migrant survey of some 650 migrants in the Greater Bangkok area conducted in 2010. The study offers some new findings on migration in Thailand. First there is evidence that the widely praised social protection policies for the rural poor in Thailand may be less effective for urban migrants. Second, the study shows that migration has benefits for income growth of rural households but is less effective in reducing inequality and relative poverty in rural areas. Generally the less favored rural households tend to have migrants who are more educated albeit at an overall low education level of the rural population in Thailand. The overall message which emerges from this paper is that poor rural households tend to produce poor migrants which could be one of the reasons for the continuous existence of a wide rural urban divide in welfare. The crucial importance of education for migration success calls for more investment in secondary education in rural areas. -- |
| Keywords: | Rural Urban Migration,Thailand,Employment Quality |
| JEL: | O15 O53 I3 J81 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:4&r=dem |
| By: | Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona); Georgi Kocharkov (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Cezar Santos (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Marriage has declined since 1960. The drop is bigger for non-college educated individuals versus college educated ones. Divorce has increased. More so for the non-college educated vis à vis the college educated. Additionally, assortative mating has risen. People are more likely to marry someone of the same education level today than in the past. A model of marriage and divorce is calibrated/estimated to fit the postwar U.S. data. The contribution of different factors, such as skilled-biased technological progress in the market, labor-saving technological progress in the home, and the narrowing of the gender gap, to explaining these facts is gauged. Work in Process! |
| Keywords: | Assortative mating, education, female labor supply, household production, marriage and divorce, minimum distance estimation |
| JEL: | E13 J12 J22 O11 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eag:rereps:18&r=dem |
| By: | Aker, Jenny C.; Clemens, Michael A.; Ksoll, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Labor markets in developing countries are subject to a high degree of frictions. We report the results from a randomized evaluation of an adult education program (Project ABC) in Niger, in which students learned how to use simple mobile phones as part of a literacy and numeracy class. Overall, our preliminary results suggest that access to this technology substantially influenced seasonal migration in Niger, increasing the likelihood of migration by at least one household member by 7 percentage points and the number of households' members engaging in seasonal migration. Evidence suggests that there are some heterogeneous impacts of the program, with a higher probability of a household member migrating in one region. These effects do not appear to be driven by differences in observable characteristics of households or differential effects of drought during the survey period. Rather we posit that they are largely explained by the effectiveness of mobile phones as a search technology: Students in ABC villages used mobile phones in more active ways and communicated more with migrants within Niger. These initial results suggest that simple and cheap information technology can be harnessed to affect labor mobility among rural populations. -- |
| JEL: | D83 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:2&r=dem |
| By: | Branisa, Boris; Ziegler, Maria |
| Abstract: | In this paper we reexamine the link between gender inequality and corruption. We review the literature on the relationship between representation of women in economic and political life, democracy and corruption, and bring in a new previously omitted variable that captures the level of discrimination against women in a society: social institutions related to gender inequality. Using a sample of developing countries we regress corruption on the representation of women, democracy and other control variables. Then we add the subindex civil liberties from the OECD Development Centre's GID Data-Base as the measure of social institutions related to gender inequality. The results show that corruption is higher in countries where social institutions deprive women of their freedom to participate in social life, even accounting for democracy and representation of women in political and economic life as well as for other variables. Our findings suggest that, in a context where social values disadvantage women, neither political reforms towards democracy nor increasing the representation of women in political and economic positions might be enough to reduce corruption. -- |
| Keywords: | Social institutions,Gender inequality,Corruption,OECD Development Centre's GID Data-Base |
| JEL: | D63 D73 J16 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:15&r=dem |
| By: | Westling, Tatu |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the link between economic development and penile length between 1960 and 1985. It estimates an augmented Solow model utilizing the Mankiw-Romer-Weil 121 country dataset. The size of male organ is found to have an inverse U-shaped relationship with the level of GDP in 1985. It can alone explain over 15% of the variation in GDP. The GDP maximizing size is around 13.5 centimetres, and a collapse in economic development is identified as the size of male organ exceeds 16 centimetres. Economic growth between 1960 and 1985 is negatively associated with the size of male organ, and it alone explains 20% of the variation in GDP growth. With due reservations it is also found to be more important determinant of GDP growth than country's political regime type. Controlling for male organ slows convergence and mitigates the negative effect of population growth on economic development slightly. Although all evidence is suggestive at this stage, the `male organ hypothesis' put forward here is robust to exhaustive set of controls and rests on surprisingly strong correlations. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; development; male organ; penile length; Solow model |
| JEL: | O47 O10 |
| Date: | 2011–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32302&r=dem |
| By: | Steiner, Susan; Esenaliev, Damir |
| Abstract: | In the light of violent clashes between Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan in June 2010 we investigate the association between economic welfare and ethnicity in this country. We intend to answer two questions. First, are Uzbek households better off than Kyrgyz households, as is often claimed in the media and also by some academics? Second, what are the correlates of household welfare in recent years, and how have these changed in comparison with the 1990s? We use data from two cross-sections of the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey (2003 and 2005) and run OLS regressions using three measures of welfare, i.e. per capita consumption, per capita income, and an asset index. We find some evidence for higher welfare of Uzbek headed households compared with their Kyrgyz counterparts, but mainly in rural areas. In the south of the country, where most Uzbeks live and where the violence took place, there appears to be no substantial difference in welfare. This is clearly in contrast to what was commonly propagated in the media and what most Kyrgyz tend to think. In terms of the other correlates of welfare, we find that household size, educational attainment of adults, and residence outside the capital and the neighbouring Chui oblast are most importantly connected with welfare. This coincides with findings from earlier studies using data from a decade earlier. -- |
| Keywords: | Household welfare,ethnicity,Kyrgyzstan |
| JEL: | D74 P36 D12 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:75&r=dem |
| By: | Girard, Victoire |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of inter-group relationships, with inter-group distance, on intra-group cooperation behavior for Indian rural households. This is an application to a real world case of some experimental results of the identity economics literature. This literature offers insight of channels through which inter-group relationships affect in-group actions, with identification to the in-group, and the resulting norm enforcement behavior. We proxy distance with differences of returns to attributes to one traditionally low status group (the Scheduled Castes, SC, standing for traditionally so-called untouchables), compared to the rest of the population (reference group). We then study the effect of this distance variable on in-group cooperation. In our data set, a cooperative behavior corresponds to the involvement in a collective action for water supply. Inter-group relationships appear to have the expected effect on intra-group cooperation for SC and households: the worst inter-group relationships, the more intra-group cooperation. -- |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:32&r=dem |
| By: | Johnston, David W. (Monash University); Lee, Wang-Sheng (RMIT University) |
| Abstract: | There exists remarkably large differences in body weights and obesity prevalence between black and white women in the US, and crucially these differences are a significant contributor to black-white inequalities in health. In this paper, we investigate the most proximal explanations for the weight gap, namely differences in diet and exercise. More specifically, we decompose black-white differences in body mass index and waist-to-height ratio into components reflecting black-white differences in energy intake and energy expenditure. The analysis indicates that over consumption is much more important than a lack of exercise in explaining the weight gap, which suggests that diet interventions will have to play a fundamental role if the weight gap between black and white women is to decline. |
| Keywords: | decomposition, obesity |
| JEL: | I1 J11 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5841&r=dem |
| By: | TCHICAYA Anastase; LORENTZ Nathalie |
| Abstract: | Des études récentes consacrées à la mortalité dans les pays développés montrent que les inégalités sociales de mortalité persistent et mettent en évidence l’existence de mortalité différentielle selon le statut socioéconomique et la nature des relations sociales. Au Luxembourg, de tels travaux font encore défaut, let l’objectif de ce texte est de mesurer les disparités sociales de mortalité concernant les cinq principales causes de décès dans le pays de 2002 à 2006. Les données utilisées proviennent de la base de données relative aux hospitalisations de l’Assurance Maladie. Les cinq principales causes de décès regroupées en chapitres de la classification internationale des maladies (CIM 10) sont : les maladies tumorales, les maladies de l’appareil circulatoire, les maladies du système respiratoire, les maladies du système digestif et les maladies du système nerveux. Les deux caractéristiques socioéconomiques sont le régime professionnel et la nationalité. Les principaux résultats montrent que les inégalités de décès par cause sont globalement modérées en ce qui concerne le régime professionnel et la nationalité, tant chez les femmes que chez les hommes. Au final, avec un système d’information sanitaire amélioré, la recherche axée sur la mesure des disparités sociales de mortalité permet d’appréhender le rôle que peuvent jouer les inégalités d’exposition aux principaux facteurs de risque qu’analyse l’Organisation Mondiale de la Santé (OMS) dans son rapport sur la santé dans le monde de 2002 (sédentarité, IMC élevé, Hypertension artérielle, tabagisme, hypercholestérolémie, consommation insuffisante des fruits et légumes) en fonction des caractéristiques sociodémographiques et économiques. |
| Keywords: | disparités sociales; mortalité; Luxembourg |
| JEL: | D63 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2011-37&r=dem |
| By: | Beerli-Palacio, Asunción; Díaz-Meneses, Gonzalo; Fernández-Monroy, Margarita; Galván-Sánchez, Inmaculada; Martín-Santana, Josefa D. |
| Abstract: | This research work sets out the objective of developing and estimating the young alcohol adoption model. This model points out the importance of values, moreover it meassures how influence values over attitudes, beliefs and emotions. The obtained results point out not only the antecedent role played by values but also the causal effect played by attitudes on beliefs, plus emotions on irresponsibles alcohol consumption behaviours. In addition, it is analised how reference group and gender are important exogenus variables in this model. Finally, some practical implications are drawn regarding responsability and hedonism values, moreover some beliefs about normality, health and social disaprobal. |
| Keywords: | Youth; Cannabis; Alcohol; Reference Group; Gender; Beliefs; Attitude; Values; Social Marketing |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsu:apasro:313&r=dem |
| By: | Senne, Jean-Noel; Chort, Isabelle; Gubert, Flore |
| Abstract: | The economic literature provides much evidence of the positive impacts of social capital on migrants' economic outcomes, in particular through assistance upon arrival and insurance in times of hardship. Yet, although much less documented, migrant networks may well have a great influence on migrants' remittances to their home country and particularly to their origin household. Given all the services provided by the network, the fear of being ostracized by its members and being left with no support system could then provide an additional incentive for migrants to commit to prevailing remittances behavior, as an affirmation of their community membership. In this paper, we thus analyze to what extent migrant networks in the destination country influence the degree to which migrants meet the claims of those left behind. We first develop a simple principal-agent model in which remittances are the result of a contractual agreement between the migrant and his origin household and the network works as an enforcement device. We thus depart from existing models of motives for remitting which generally do not account for the close-knit networks migrants are embedded in. We then use an original data set covering Senegalese migrants residing in France and Italy to test the main predictions of our model. -- |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec11:73&r=dem |