nep-dcm New Economics Papers
on Discrete Choice Models
Issue of 2023‒06‒19
thirteen papers chosen by
Edoardo Marcucci
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. How to Prevent Yellow Vests? Evaluating Preferences for a Carbon Tax with a Discrete Choice Experiment By Jakub Sokołowski; Piotr Lewandowski; Jan Frankowski
  2. Improving the living and working conditions of migrant seasonal workers - Assessing consumer preferences for hypothetical, domestic, fair trade apples By Thiermann, Insa; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe
  3. Hybrid EV and Pure BEV Owners: A Comparative Analysis of Household Demographics, Travel Behavior, and Energy Use By Dai, Ziyi; Rodgers, Michael O; Guensler, Randall
  4. Farmers’ preferences over alternative AECS designs. Do the ecological conditions influence the willingness to accept result-based contracts? By Canessa, Carolin; Venus, Terese; Wiesmeier, Miriam; Mennig, Philipp; Sauer, Johannes
  5. On rational choice from lists of sets By Gleb Koshevoy; Ernesto Savaglio
  6. Quantifying farmers' preferences for antimicrobial use for livestock diseases in northern Tanzania By Nthambi, Mary; Lembo, Tiziana; Davis, Alicia; Nasuwa, Fortunata; Mmbaga, Blandina Theophil; Matthews, Louise; Hanley, Nick
  7. Dynamic Preference Foundations of Expected Exponentially-Discounted Utility By Craig S. Webb
  8. Retail Investors’ Disposition Effect and Order Choices By De Winne, Rudy; Luong, Nhung; Palan, Stefan
  9. Modeling Factors Affecting the Choice to Use the Proposed Riyadh Metro System By Ahm Mehbub Anwar; Abu Toasin Oakil; Abdelrahman Muhsen; Anvita Arora
  10. Fast and Order-invariant Inference in Bayesian VARs with Non-Parametric Shocks By Florian Huber; Gary Koop
  11. Using neural networks to predict the value of stocks based on news data By Borisenko Georgy
  12. Free to fail? Paternalistic preferences in the United States By Björn Bartling; Alexander W. Cappelen; Henning Hermes; Marit Skivenes; Bertil Tungodden
  13. Approximate Bayesian Computation for Partially Identified Models By Alvarez, Luis Antonio

  1. By: Jakub Sokołowski; Piotr Lewandowski; Jan Frankowski
    Abstract: Increasing climate policy ambitions create tensions in societies with low trust and social divisions, as shown by the Yellow Vests movement that successfully opposed a carbon tax in France. We study preferences for policies to achieve energy security and climate change mitigation goals in the context of the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We conducted a discrete choice experiment on a representative sample of 10, 000 people in Poland, a country heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Using a willingness-to-pay approach, we find a strong aversion to a carbon tax that is only moderately alleviated by redistribution policies. Income and age matter for preferences regarding climate and energy. People with low incomes (bottom quartile) value achieving climate change (15%) and energy security (10%) goals less than the general population (17% and 14% willingness to pay, respectively). Younger people (aged 18-34) are willing to sacrifice more income to mitigate climate change than people aged 55 or more (28% vs. 12%) but are less willing to forego income (11% vs. 16%) to reduce fuel imports from Russia. Consequently, we quantify the heterogeneity of preferences regarding redistribution measures and evaluate their efficiency, providing an example of using discrete choice experiments to mitigate the risks of social tensions due to introducing a carbon tax.
    Keywords: carbon tax, redistribution, climate change, discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay
    JEL: H23 D74 Q41 Q54
    Date: 2023–04
  2. By: Thiermann, Insa; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe
    Abstract: This article assesses consumer preferences for improved living and working conditions for migrant seasonal workers in Germany. The analysis is based on a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 227 consumers. Consumers were presented with the choice of buying standard apples or apples produced under improved conditions. A mixed logit model was used for the analysis of the data. The predicted probability of choosing an apple produced under improved conditions is 85 %. For most of the attributes, significantly positive estimates were found. Consumers value higher minimum wages, the obligation to participate in the German social security system, and bonus payments on Sundays and public holidays. Higher prices and longer working hours per week decrease the probability of opting for an apple. The attributes with the least importance relate to accommodation. The significant attributes indicate the aspects for which society perceives the greatest need for action. These could be addressed to improve the living and working conditions of migrant seasonal workers.
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital, Consumer/Household Economics
    Date: 2023–03
  3. By: Dai, Ziyi; Rodgers, Michael O; Guensler, Randall
    Abstract: Electric Vehicles (EVs) significantly reduce energy consumption and emissions from on-road operations and help create more sustainable transportation environment by reducing emissions from the entire well-to wheel energy cycle. Differences between hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and battery electric vehicles (BEV) users is an important element in understanding potential impacts on travel demand and vehicle adoption, the fact that these vehicles may be adopted into households that undertake very different vehicle activities and energy usage patterns has not been a primary focus in the literature. This study differentiates between HEV, PHEV, and BEV users across three factors: owner household socio-demographic attributes, household daily travel patterns, and household energy usage profiles. The analyses examine factors that appear to influence users’ preferences towards specific EV types and how the selection of different EV types potentially relates to household socio demographics and daily travel patterns. The 2019 Puget Sound Regional Council travel survey data set serves as the main analytical dataset. Influential factors identified as significant through statistical approaches are employed as variables for developing a two-phase choice model for determining potential EV-purchasing households and their choice of specific EV type. As EVs continue to capture increasing market share over time, these research findings and the resulting vehicle type choice model are expected to significantly improve future travel demand model development, allowing activity-based travel demand models to assign specific vehicles to specific households and then to individual trips in planning scenario analysis. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), data mining and statistical learning, EV purchase and use decisions, household demographics, travel patterns and household energy usage, household travel surveys
    Date: 2023–05–01
  4. By: Canessa, Carolin; Venus, Terese; Wiesmeier, Miriam; Mennig, Philipp; Sauer, Johannes
    Abstract: Agri-environmental-climate schemes provide payments for ecosystem services by compensating farmers to implement management actions or obtain ecological results. To compare farmer preferences for action-based schemes, result-based schemes, or a hybrid, we conduct a discrete choice experiment in a case study from Germany. We elicited farmers’ choices for alternative grassland biodiversity payments through an in-person survey and measured farms’ ecological performance using a biodiversity index. Results reveal that neither the payment mechanism nor its amount is a primary driver of farmer decision-making. Instead, the applicability of the prescribed management practice to the farming system, and the achievability of the outcome, are key for uptake. Intensive farmers are more likely to choose hybrid-based solutions than extensive farms, which prefer a result-based approach. Farms with higher biodiversity tend to accept result-based schemes more frequently and are willing to enrol a greater share of their land. Our findings suggest a potential lack of additionality but also that farmers’ awareness about their farms’ ecological potential influences uptake of result-based schemes. To encourage farmers participating and enroling more land in these schemes, policymakers should tailor the payment-mechanism to different farmers and provide in-site technical advice.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2023–03
  5. By: Gleb Koshevoy; Ernesto Savaglio
    Abstract: We analyze the rationality of a Decision Maker (DM) who chooses from lists of sets of alternatives. A new class of choice functions, representing the DM's choice-behavior, and a new rationality axiom are proposed and studied. We show that a property, that we call No-Regret suggests that alternatives disregarded as of no interest for the DM be ignored, is a rationality criterion that encompasses some compelling postulates of the classical choice model and extends them to the proposed general framework of choice from lists of sets of alternatives.
    Keywords: Choice from lists of sets, No-regret, Outcast, Heritage, Path-independence.
    JEL: D01
    Date: 2023–03
  6. By: Nthambi, Mary; Lembo, Tiziana; Davis, Alicia; Nasuwa, Fortunata; Mmbaga, Blandina Theophil; Matthews, Louise; Hanley, Nick
    Abstract: Understanding the choice behaviours of farmers around the treatment of their livestock is critical to counteracting the risks of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) emergence. Using varying disease scenarios, we measure the differences in livestock species’ treatment preferences and effects of context variables (such as grazing patterns, herd size, travel time to agrovet shops, previous disease experience, previous vaccination experience, education level and income) on the farmers’ treatment choices for infections across three production systems - agro-pastoral, pastoral and rural smallholder - in northern Tanzania, where reliance on antimicrobial treatment to support the health and productivity of livestock is high. Applying a context-dependentstated choice experiment, we surveyed 1224 respondents. Mixed logit model results show that farmers have higher preferences for professional veterinary services when treating cattle, sheep and goats, while they prefer to self-treat poultry. Antibiotics sourced from agrovet shops are the medicine of choice, independent of the health condition to treat, whether viral, bacterial or parasitic. Nearness to agrovet shops, informal education, borrowing and home storage of medicines, and commercial poultry rearing increase chances of self-treatment. Based on our findings, we propose interventions such as awareness and education campaigns aimed at 2 addressing current practices that pose AMR risks, as well as vaccination and good livestock husbandry practices, capacity building and provision of diagnostic tools.
    Keywords: Health Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2023–03
  7. By: Craig S. Webb
    Abstract: Expected exponentially-discounted utility (EEDU) is the standard model of choice over risk and time in economics. This paper considers the dynamic preference foundations of EEDU in the timed risks framework. We first provide dynamic preference foundations for a time-invariant expected utility representation. The new axioms for this are called foregone-risk independence and strong time invariance. This class of dynamic preferences includes EEDU as a special case. If foregone-risk independence is strengthened to a new condition called conditional consistency, then an EEDU representation results. Alternative approaches for extending exponential discounting axioms to risk are considered, resulting in five new preference foundations of EEDU.
    Date: 2023–05
  8. By: De Winne, Rudy (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/LFIN, Belgium); Luong, Nhung (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/LFIN, Belgium); Palan, Stefan (University of Graz)
    Abstract: Retail investors are prone to the disposition effect and submit many more limit orders than market orders. Mechanical effects stemming from the price-contingency conditions for order executions can lead these limit orders to inflate an investor’s measured disposition effect (Linnainmaa 2010). Our paper is the first to demonstrate that the relationship between the disposition effect and order choices is bi-directional. Using a controlled experiment on the one hand and empirical trading data of thousands of investors on the other hand, we show that investors who are prone to the disposition effect differ from others in their use of limit orders and in their choice of limit prices.
    Keywords: Disposition effect ; order choice ; limit orders ; retail investors ; behavioral finance
    Date: 2022–05–14
  9. By: Ahm Mehbub Anwar; Abu Toasin Oakil; Abdelrahman Muhsen; Anvita Arora (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: The Riyadh metro system is being implemented as a sustainable transport option that will offer reliable, affordable and comfortable urban mobility. It is important to understand the factors influencing the likelihood that people will use the new metro system. Thus, this study’s key objective is to investigate the underlying factors that drive people to use the metro instead of their current transport modes.
    Keywords: Land use -Transport interaction, Spatial economice model, Transit Oriented Development, Urban energy model
    Date: 2023–11–04
  10. By: Florian Huber; Gary Koop
    Abstract: The shocks which hit macroeconomic models such as Vector Autoregressions (VARs) have the potential to be non-Gaussian, exhibiting asymmetries and fat tails. This consideration motivates the VAR developed in this paper which uses a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) to model the shocks. However, we do not follow the obvious strategy of simply modeling the VAR errors with a DPM since this would lead to computationally infeasible Bayesian inference in larger VARs and potentially a sensitivity to the way the variables are ordered in the VAR. Instead we develop a particular additive error structure inspired by Bayesian nonparametric treatments of random effects in panel data models. We show that this leads to a model which allows for computationally fast and order-invariant inference in large VARs with nonparametric shocks. Our empirical results with nonparametric VARs of various dimensions shows that nonparametric treatment of the VAR errors is particularly useful in periods such as the financial crisis and the pandemic.
    Date: 2023–05
  11. By: Borisenko Georgy (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: This paper is devoted to forecasting the value of shares of large Russian companies traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange based on news. Neural networks transformers are used as models for forecasting. Moreover, classical machine learning methods are also involved in the analysis for comparison with the neural network approach. Major Russian news sources and Telegram channels are used as news data. Models trained on different sources are also compared. As a result of the study, it was found that classical machine learning methods cope better with this task in the general case, but neural networks also show good quality. The paper also provides recommendations on the choice of a news source and the choice of a task statement.
    Keywords: shape price, news, network approach, Telegr?m
    JEL: C63 G14
    Date: 2023–05
  12. By: Björn Bartling; Alexander W. Cappelen; Henning Hermes; Marit Skivenes; Bertil Tungodden
    Abstract: We study paternalistic preferences in two large-scale experiments with participants from the general population in the United States. Spectators decide whether to intervene to prevent a stakeholder, who is mistaken about the choice set, from making a choice that is not aligned with the stakeholders’ own preferences. We find causal evidence for the nature of the intervention being of great importance for the spectators’ willingness to intervene. Only a minority of the spectators implement a hard intervention that removes the stakeholder’s freedom to choose, while a large majority implement a soft intervention that provides information without restricting the choice set. This finding holds regardless of the stakeholder’s responsibility for being mistaken about the choice set – whether the source of mistake is internal or external – and in different subgroups of the population. We introduce a theoretical framework with two paternalistic types – libertarian paternalists and welfarists – and show that the two types can account for most of the spectator behavior. We estimate that about half of the spectators are welfarists and that about a third are libertarian paternalists. Our results shed light on attitudes toward paternalistic policies and the broad support for soft interventions.
    Keywords: Paternalism, libertarian paternalism, welfarism, freedom to choose
    JEL: C91 C93 D69 D91
    Date: 2023–05
  13. By: Alvarez, Luis Antonio
    Abstract: Partial identification is a prominent feature of several economic models. Such prevalence has spurred a large literature on valid set estimation under partial identification from a frequentist viewpoint. From the Bayesian perspective, it is well known that, under partial identification, the asymptotic validity of Bayesian credible sets in conducting frequentist inference, which is ensured by several Bernstein von-Mises theorems available in the literature, breaks down. Existing solutions to this problem require either knowledge of the map between the distribution of the data and the identified set -- which is generally unavailable in more complex models --, or modifications to the methodology that difficult the Bayesian interpretability of the proposed solution. In this paper, I show how one can leverage Approximate Bayesian Computation, a Bayesian methodology designed for settings where evaluation of the model likelihood is unfeasible, to reestablish the asymptotic validity of Bayesian credible sets in conducting frequentist inference, whilst preserving the core interpretation of the Bayesian approach and dispensing with knowledge of the map between data and identified set. Specifically, I show in a simple, yet encompassing, setting how, by calibrating the main tuning parameter of the ABC methodology, one could hope to achieve asymptotic frequentist coverage. Based on my findings, I then propose a semiautomatic algorithm for selecting this parameter and constructing valid confidence sets. This is a work in progress. In future versions, I intend to present further theoretical results, Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application on the Economics of Networks.
    Keywords: Approximate Bayesian Computation; Partial Identification; Tuning parameter selection
    JEL: C11
    Date: 2023–03–20

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