nep-dcm New Economics Papers
on Discrete Choice Models
Issue of 2023‒05‒22
seven papers chosen by
Edoardo Marcucci
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Intrinsic Preferences for Autonomy By Freundt, Jana; Herz, Holger; KOPP, leander
  2. Enhanced multilayer perceptron with feature selection and grid search for travel mode choice prediction By Li Tang; Chuanli Tang; Qi Fu
  3. Best, worst, and Best&worst choice probabilities for logit and reverse logit models By André de Palma; Karim Kilani
  4. Do residents living in transit-oriented development station catchment areas travel more sustainably? The impacts of life events By Shen, Tonggaochuan; Cheng, Long; Yang, Yongjiang; Deng, Jialin; Jin, Tanhua; Cao, Mengqiu
  5. Should You Meet the Parents? The Impact of Information on Non-test Score Attributes on School Choice By Facchetti, Elisa; Neri, Lorenzo; Ovidi, Marco
  6. Predictive Maintenance on the Energy Distribution Grid - Design and Evaluation of a Digital Industrial Platform in the Context of a Smart Service System By Philipp zur Heiden; Jennifer Priefer; Daniel Beverungen
  7. Scarcity and Intertemporal Choice By Eesha Sharma; Stephanie Tully; Xiang Wang

  1. By: Freundt, Jana (University of Fribourg, Switzerland); Herz, Holger (University of Fribourg, Switzerland); KOPP, leander (University of Fribourg, Switzerland)
    Abstract: Personal autonomy has been argued to be fundamental to well-being and is often discussed as an important driver of economic and political behavior. Yet, preferences for autonomy are not well understood, because their identification requires the separation of instrumental value attached to autonomous choice. We propose a novel elicitation method that solves this identification challenge. We establish the existence of intrinsic preferences for choice autonomy and show substantial heterogeneity in a large online sample. We further study their antecedents by relating them to existing personality scales and socioeconomic characteristics. Finally, we test their association with other preferences, attitudes and beliefs.
    Keywords: autonomy, delegation, experiment design, choice consistency
    JEL: C91 D01 D90
    Date: 2023–04–07
  2. By: Li Tang; Chuanli Tang; Qi Fu
    Abstract: Accurate and reliable prediction of individual travel mode choices is crucial for developing multi-mode urban transportation systems, conducting transportation planning and formulating traffic demand management strategies. Traditional discrete choice models have dominated the modelling methods for decades yet suffer from strict model assumptions and low prediction accuracy. In recent years, machine learning (ML) models, such as neural networks and boosting models, are widely used by researchers for travel mode choice prediction and have yielded promising results. However, despite the superior prediction performance, a large body of ML methods, especially the branch of neural network models, is also limited by overfitting and tedious model structure determination process. To bridge this gap, this study proposes an enhanced multilayer perceptron (MLP; a neural network) with two hidden layers for travel mode choice prediction; this MLP is enhanced by XGBoost (a boosting method) for feature selection and a grid search method for optimal hidden neurone determination of each hidden layer. The proposed method was trained and tested on a real resident travel diary dataset collected in Chengdu, China.
    Date: 2023–04
  3. By: André de Palma; Karim Kilani (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)
    Abstract: This paper builds upon the work of Professor Marley, who, since the beginning of his long research career, has proposed rigorous axiomatics in the area of probabilistic choice models. Our study concentrates on models that can be applied to best and worst choice scaling experiments. We focus on those among these models that are based on strong assumptions about the underlying ranking of the alternatives with which the individual is assumed to be endowed when making the choice. Taking advantage of an inclusion-exclusion identity that we showed a few years ago, we propose a variety of best-worst choice probability models that could be implemented in software packages that are flourishing in this field.
    Keywords: International Trade, Market Potential, Economic Geography, Regional Development, Core-Periphery.
    JEL: F14 F15 O18 R11
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Shen, Tonggaochuan; Cheng, Long; Yang, Yongjiang; Deng, Jialin; Jin, Tanhua; Cao, Mengqiu
    Abstract: Transit-oriented development (TOD) is an urban designed model aimed at attracting more sustainable travellers. However, not all TOD projects succeed in maintaining a high rate of sustainable travel behaviour. To examine the impacts of TOD on residents' travel behaviour, this paper applies binary logistic regression to analyse survey data for 1, 298 residents living in the TOD areas in Hangzhou collected in 2020. The results show that socioeconomic characteristics, built environment factors, and travel attitudes play important roles in influencing their travel mode choices. Furthermore, the number of children in households and higher levels of car ownership significantly influence residents' sustainable travel behaviours. However, it appears that only a limited number of factors can convince car users to shift to sustainable modes of travel, such as their workplace being accessible by metro and attitudes towards changes in accessibility. This research study contributes to the existing literature in terms of enhancing the understanding of travel mode choice behaviours, particularly with regard to people who live near public transport infrastructure, as well as formulating evidence-based TOD policies to achieve more sustainable transport systems.
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–04–04
  5. By: Facchetti, Elisa (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London); Neri, Lorenzo (University of St. Andrews); Ovidi, Marco (Catholic University Milan)
    Abstract: Understanding parental response to non-test score attributes is crucial to design effective school choice systems. We study an intervention providing parents with hard-to-find information on the school environment while holding information on school performance constant. The provision of this information decreases the outflow to private institutions by 17% and increases enrollment at local state schools, particularly among high-income and high-performing students. This intervention encourages parents to expand their state-school search without affecting their taste for academic performance, generating increased competition for schools with desirable attributes. These findings imply that simple, low-cost interventions may improve state schools' finances and composition.
    Keywords: school choice, non-test score school attributes, information intervention
    JEL: I24 I28 H75
    Date: 2023–04
  6. By: Philipp zur Heiden (Paderborn University); Jennifer Priefer (Paderborn University); Daniel Beverungen (Paderborn University)
    Abstract: The energy turnaround and the shift towards sustainable mobility threaten the stability of European energy distribution grids due to substantially increasing load fluctuations and power demand. These challenges can critically impact assets in the distribution grid—–e.g., switchgears–—intensifying the need to plan, conduct, and manage their maintenance. Predictive maintenance strategies that analyze assets’ current and historical condition data have been discussed as promising approaches toward that end. However, the extant research focuses on designing and improving analytical IT artifacts while not considering how a maintenance service is co-created by companies with IT. This study posits that IT and service must be aligned closely, presenting an ensemble artifact comprising a digital industrial platform and a smart service system for predictive maintenance on the distribution grid. The artifact is evaluated by conducting a willingness-to-pay analysis with asset operators, documenting their demand for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance as an integrated solution. Building on these results, we contribute design principles for information systems and implications for managing corporate networks for maintaining critical assets in the distribution grid.
    Keywords: Design Science Research, Predictive Maintenance, Smart Service System, Digital Platform, Distribution Grid, Value-Creation Network
    JEL: D47 L94 M15
    Date: 2022–12
  7. By: Eesha Sharma; Stephanie Tully; Xiang Wang
    Abstract: Scarcity is a ubiquitous experience, and existing evidence largely suggests that people become more myopic when they feel their resources are scarce. Importantly, evidence for this proposition comes primarily from contexts in which scarcity threatens needs that require resources imminently. The current work examines instances in which scarcity threatens needs along a broader time horizon. Archival data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Consumer Finance Institute and five pre-registered studies (N = 7, 728) show that the time horizon of threatened needs is an important determinant of scarcity’s effect on intertemporal choice. Studies 1 and 2 measure perceptions of scarcity and demonstrate that scarcity’s effect on intertemporal choice is moderated by the time horizon of people's needs. Study 3 experimentally manipulates perceptions of scarcity and demonstrates a polarizing effect of scarcity on intertemporal choice. When scarcity threatens needs with shorter time horizons, scarcity increases choices of smaller, sooner outcomes; however, this effect attenuates and sometimes reverses when scarcity threatens needs with longer time horizons. Studies 4-6 examine process evidence and find that the effect of scarcity on intertemporal choice is driven at least in part by differences in the perceived relative marginal utility of intertemporal choice options, rather than other factors such as a general change in time preference. Our findings suggest that scarcity does not inherently lead to myopic decisions and contribute to the ongoing debate regarding how and why scarcity influences intertemporal choice.
    Keywords: scarcity; myopia; intertemporal choice; financial decision-making; economic psychology
    JEL: D11 D15 D91 G51
    Date: 2022–09–01

This nep-dcm issue is ©2023 by Edoardo Marcucci. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.