nep-dcm New Economics Papers
on Discrete Choice Models
Issue of 2021‒03‒22
six papers chosen by
Edoardo Marcucci
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Análisis económetrico de la valoración de aceite de oliva virgen extra By Roldán, Camila; Lupín, Beatriz; Tedesco, Lorena
  2. Vaccination or NPI? A Conjoint Analysis of German Citizens’ Preferences By Jacques Bughin; Michele Cincera; E. Kiepfer; Dorota Reykowska; Florian Philippi; Marcin Zyszkiewicz; Rafal Ohme; Dirk Frank
  3. Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Social Choice: The Impact of Deliberation in the context of two different Aggregation Rules By Mariam Sy; Charles Figuières; Helene Rey-Valette; Richard Howarth; Rutger de Wit
  4. Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior By Aycinena, D; Blazsek, S; Rentschler, L; Sprenger, C
  5. Feature Learning for Stock Price Prediction Shows a Significant Role of Analyst Rating By Jaideep Singh; Matloob Khushi
  6. Household heterogeneity in valuation of heating energy costs By Sahari, Anna

  1. By: Roldán, Camila; Lupín, Beatriz; Tedesco, Lorena
    Abstract: En el presente Trabajo, se estudian las preferencias y las elecciones de los consumidores de aceite de oliva virgen extra residentes en la Ciudad de Bahía Blanca a fin de estimar la valoración de determinados atributos de calidad, centrando el interés en el producido en el Sudoeste de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Se emplearon datos provenientes de una encuesta, con representatividad censal, que incluyó un Choice Modelling. Dicho relevamiento, comprendió 223 casos y fue llevado a cabo en la Ciudad mencionada, durante los meses de noviembre y diciembre del año 2017. Se aplica un Alternative Specific Logit Model, de efectos principales, que permite conocer la contribución de ciertos atributos -origen geográfico, sabor, material del envase y precio- a la utilidad de los consumidores y su disposición a pagar por los mismos. Los resultados generales indican que los consumidores valoran un aceite de oliva virgen extra proveniente del Sudoeste Bonaerense, de sabor suave y con envase de vidrio, siendo el segundo atributo el que mayor utilidad les reporta y, en consecuencia, se encuentran dispuestos a pagar un diferencial de precio mayor por él.
    Keywords: Preferencias del Consumidor; Atributos de Calidad; Aceite de Oliva; Modelo Logit; Experimentos de Elección;
    Date: 2020–11
  2. By: Jacques Bughin; Michele Cincera; E. Kiepfer; Dorota Reykowska; Florian Philippi; Marcin Zyszkiewicz; Rafal Ohme; Dirk Frank
    Abstract: Our results, based on a recent survey of German citizens, highlight three important insights: a) regarding the baseline, with 70% effective vaccine, more than 3 out of 10 will not accept to be vaccinated and among those considering vaccination, 1/3 still would prefer to be vaccinated in the next six months rather than immediately; b) among attributes, an effective vaccine may come as a solution to compensate for the costs induced by NPI, especially when NPI are invasive and might continue for an extended period; c) voluntary compliance is highly preferred by citizens over imposed measures whether it relates to vaccination choice, lockdown measures, or work location choice during the pandemic. Backing up those findings in monetary value, an immediate shot of a 100% effective vaccination is estimated to be worth in the range of 11,400€ but the value of the shot quickly falls to no value when effectiveness drops below 50. In comparison, the burden of extra full lockdown and social distancing is about 775€ per citizen per month, while the cost of imposing protective rules lies in the range of 1,500 to 2,500€, depending on the rule analyzed. As most current vaccines are being proven to have high efficacy, a strategy that selects the most effective vaccine candidates while emphasizing how the vaccine may stop the pain of lasting lockdowns will be appropriate to nudge the population towards vaccination. Control measures that are too restrictive may be welfare-deteriorating, but enough NPI measures must be recommended as long as vaccination adoption is not sufficiently large.
    Keywords: Covid-19, Vaccine strategy, Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions, Conjoint analysis
    Date: 2021–03
  3. By: Mariam Sy (UMR MARBEC - MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Charles Figuières (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Helene Rey-Valette (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Richard Howarth (Environmental Studies Program, Dartmouth College); Rutger de Wit (UMR MARBEC - MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper describes an empiric study of aggregation and deliberation used during citizens' workshops for the preference elicitation of 20 different ecosystem services (ESs) delivered by the Palavas coastal lagoons located on the shore of the Mediterranean Sea close to Montpellier (S. France). The impact of deliberation for the preference elicitation of 20 different ecosystem services (ESs) was studied by gathering and aggregating individual preferences before deliberation that were compared to the collective aggregation after deliberation. The same aggregation rules were used before and after deliberation and we compared two different aggregation methods, i.e. Rapid Ecosystem Services Participatory Appraisal (RESPA) and Majority Judgement (MJ). RESPA had been specifically tested for ESs, while MJ evaluates the merit of each item, an ES in our case, in a predefined ordinal scale of judgment. The impact of deliberation was strongest for the RESPA method. This new information acquired from application of social choice theory is particularly useful for ecological economics studying ES, and more practically for the development of deliberative approaches for public policies.
    Keywords: ecosystem services,non-monetary methods,preference elicitation,deliberation,social choice theory,coastal lagoons
    Date: 2021–01
  4. By: Aycinena, D; Blazsek, S; Rentschler, L; Sprenger, C
    Abstract: Intertemporal choice experiments are frequently implemented to make inference about time preferences, yet little is known about the predictive power of resulting measures. This project links standard experimental choices to a decision on the desire to smooth a large-stakes payment — around 10% of annual income — through time. In a sample of around 400 Guatemalan Conditional Cash Transfer recipients, we find that preferences over large-stakes payment plans are closely predicted by experimental measures of patience and diminishing marginal utility. These represent the first findings in the literature on the predictive content of experimentally elicited intertemporal preferences for large-stakes decisions.
    Keywords: Structural estimation; Out-of-sample prediction; Discounting; Convex Time Budget
    JEL: D1 D3 D90
    Date: 2019–12–08
  5. By: Jaideep Singh; Matloob Khushi
    Abstract: To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various classification machine learning models, trading data of the 505 equities on the US S&P500 over the past 20 years was analysed to develop a classifier effective for our cause. From any given day, we were able to predict the direction of change in price by 1% up to 10 days in the future. The predictions had an overall accuracy of 83.62% with a precision of 85% for buy signals and a recall of 100% for sell signals. Moreover, we grouped equities by their sector and repeated the experiment to see if grouping similar assets together positively effected the results but concluded that it showed no significant improvements in the performance rejecting the idea of sector-based analysis. Also, using feature ranking we could identify an even smaller set of 6 indicators while maintaining similar accuracies as that from the original 28 features and also uncovered the importance of buy, hold and sell analyst ratings as they came out to be the top contributors in the model. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifier in real-life situations, it was backtested on FAANG equities using a modest trading strategy where it generated high returns of above 60% over the term of the testing dataset. In conclusion, our proposed methodology with the combination of purposefully picked features shows an improvement over the previous studies, and our model predicts the direction of 1% price changes on the 10th day with high confidence and with enough buffer to even build a robotic trading system.
    Date: 2021–03
  6. By: Sahari, Anna
    Abstract: This paper studies consumer heterogeneity in the valuation of lifetime heating energy costs. The valuation is expressed as the willingness to pay higher upfront costs to obtain savings over the lifetime of the heating system. The analysis relies on administrative register data on new residential houses built by private persons in Finland during 2010-2011. The data allow estimating the WTP as a function of several observable household characteristics. The median WTP in the estimation sample is e8, with a range of e2 to e15. Households with higher income and education are estimated to have higher WTP. Other characteristics that impact the WTP are household debt, family type and size, current dwelling status and previous experience of building a house.
    Keywords: Willingness to pay, Energy efficiency, Consumer heterogeneity, Environment, energy and climate policy, D12, Q41,
    Date: 2021

This nep-dcm issue is ©2021 by Edoardo Marcucci. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.