| By: |
Jean-Sébastien Lenfant (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: |
Probabilistic models of choice (between sure prospects) have become a standard
modeling practice since the 1980s, notably through the widespread use of the
Logit Multinomial Model pioneered by McFadden (1974). However, the idea to
model consumer’s behavior as a probabilistic behavior, hence accounting for
some kind of behavioral instability in the pure theory of rational choice,
dates back to the 1930s and led to significant investigations in the 1950s. It
is the purpose of this article to confront three attempts by economists at
developing models of individual choice that go beyond standard ordinalist
utility theory through introducing principles of probabilistic behavior. We
discuss first Georgescu-Roegen’s neglected contributions to this subject,
though he pioneered the definition of probabilistic preference in 1936 and
came back on the subject intensively in the 1950s. We then present Marschak’s
(and his co-authors) attempts at axiomatizing a probabilistic model of choice
in the same period. The third contribution studied is that of Quandt, who
provides a more operational style of modeling. This set of contributions is
discussed against a general background of transformations of the theory of
rational behavior and of the methods proper to it. |
| Keywords: |
consumer theory, indifference. , threshold in choice, intransitivity,probabilistic choice theory, Georgescu-Roegen, Marschak, Quandt, measurement of utility, experimental psychology |
| Date: |
2018 |
| URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01714635&r=dcm |