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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Francisco M. Gonzalez (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo); Yu Chen (University of Calgary); Matthew Doyle (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo) |
| JEL: | D8 C78 E24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wat:wpaper:1702&r=dcm |
| By: | Goyal, S.; Hernández, P.; Martínez-Cánovasz, G.; Moisan, F.; Muñoz-Herrera, M.; Sánchez, A. |
| Abstract: | Individuals prefer to coordinate with others, but they differ on the preferred action. In theory, this can give rise to an integrated society with everyone conforming to the same action or a segregated society with members of different groups choosing diverse actions. Social welfare is maximum when society is integrated and everyone conforms on the majority's action. In laboratory experiments, subjects with different preferences segregate into distinct groups and choose diverse actions. To understand the role of partner choice, we then consider an exogenous network of partners. Subjects in the experiment now choose to conform on the action preferred by the majority. Thus, there exists a tension between two deeply held values: social cohesion and freedom of association. |
| Date: | 2017–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1721&r=dcm |
| By: | Jan Dvorsky (Tomas Bata University in Zlin); Jaroslav Schonfeld (University of Economics); Eva Cipovova (Czech Technical University in Prague); Zora Petrakova (Slovak University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: One of the possibilities for entrepreneur who is trying to start-up a successful business or grow a business, is to ensure the business from an economic perspective. Entrepreneurs can use a various alternative forms of financing. Despite the wide range of programs, grants and subsidies, the most commonly used form of financing is still a loan which is provided by the bank institutions. The relationship between entrepreneurs and banking institutions is mainly connected in the area of lending and guarantees for funding. Therefore the perception and the evaluation of the credit risk by entrepreneurs contributes to a better understanding of needs of both sides. Purpose of the article: A comparison of the evaluation of factors which affect the perception and management of the credit risk by entrepreneurs. Not only socio-demographic factors (gender, level of education or age of entrepreneurs) but also the nature of corporate activities in the business environment for small and medium-sized enterprises in the Czech Republic. Methodology/methods: During data collection, method of random firm’s selection using specialized database of companies “Albertina” was used. Afterwards, the method of interview with responsible managers of the company and method of online questionnaire survey were used. Data from 1141 enterprises in 2015 from all 14 regions of the Czech Republic were collected. In the first step of our research, the descriptive statistics (pivot tables, pie charts) were conducted. Afterwards, the two-sample t-test to compare a mean values of the perceptions of credit risk factors and verify the conditions for its completion (Histogram, Q-Q plot, Goodness of Fit Test, Pearson coefficient of contingency, t- test). Findings & Value added: With an increase of the time of operating in the business environment, the amount of women as a responsible people for business management is decreasing. Entrepreneurs are united in the opinion that the importance of credit risk during the crisis increases. There are statistically significant differences between entrepreneurs by a gender and age in enterprises with a time of operating on the market between 5-10 years that the importance of credit risk during the crisis increases. |
| Keywords: | enterprise, credit risk, business environment, banks |
| JEL: | L26 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no155&r=dcm |
| By: | Curtis, John |
| Abstract: | This paper examines anglers' preferences for active stock management of pike populations within designated wild brown trout fisheries in Ireland. While the policy of pike control has a long history, it is not without controversy and conflict. As the objective of pike control is the protection of trout stocks, a superficial view might be that trout anglers favour and pike anglers oppose such management intervention. Pike and trout anglers do not have homogeneous preferences; in fact, a substantial minority of pike anglers also fish for trout and vice versa. The current paper is the first to examine Irish pike and trout anglers' preferences over fishery attributes, including pike stock control methods. Preference data was elicited by means of choice experiments for pike and trout anglers and a latent class site choice model is used to estimate anglers' utility functions. Not surprisingly model results show that pike anglers do not support pike stock control and almost universally would choose fishing sites where there are no pike stock controls, all else equal. We find that the majority of trout anglers, 61%, are negatively disposed towards pike stock control, and all else equal, are more likely to choose fishing sites where pike stocks are not actively managed. A substantial minority of trout anglers (i.e. 39%) could be considered advocates of pike control, with about one-third of these being more extreme in their preferences, with site choice probabilities of such anglers being largely determined by the pike control management option. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp563&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz Sosnowski (University of Lodz, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Firms use discretionary accounting choices to manage earnings disclosures around the time of certain types of corporate events. The IPO provides an opportunity to earnings management because of the significant information asymmetry between investors and issuers at the time of the offering. The main aim of the study is to empirically investigate the links between the earnings management and the portions of primary and secondary shares sold in IPO. In order to investigate whether the earnings management influences the issue of new shares and the sale of secondary shares I use Tobit and logit regressions, where discretionary accruals are the proxy for earnings management. Using a sample of 221 firms from WSE between 2005 and 2015 I do not find evidence that the increase of pre-IPO discretionary accruals positively affects the sale of primary shares in the IPO, but the analysis revealed that the reporting less limits the probability of the new shares issuance. In turn, the sale of secondary shares in the IPO is more likely in companies using a conservative earnings management. Furthermore, negative discretionary accruals increase the portion of secondary shares in the IPO. |
| Keywords: | Initial public offering, IPO, Primary shares, Secondary shares, Earnings management |
| JEL: | G14 G32 G23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no119&r=dcm |
| By: | Eichhorst, Werner (IZA); Rinne, Ulf (IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the current situation of youth unemployment in the European Union. In this context, the main questions are whether the European Youth Guarantee has had any effects and how the school-to-work transitions of young individuals in Europe could be improved. |
| Keywords: | labor policy, labor market institutions, vocational education and training |
| JEL: | J08 J13 J21 J24 J38 J61 J68 J88 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp128&r=dcm |
| By: | Dilla, Diana |
| Abstract: | In search for determinants of public debt, traditional economic approaches use macroeconomic and public choice models. More recent research explains public debt by debt preferences of voters and politicians. When it comes to empirical testing, however, the latter approach often suffers from the lack of suitable proxies for debt preferences. The present paper finds a remedy by using private debt as a proxy for voters’ debt mentality. The empirical analysis employs a panel data set for the German Laender and reveals that both private debt and private over-indebtedness have a significantly positive impact on public debt. |
| Keywords: | Public debt, debt preferences, private debt mentality, private debt, private overindebtedness |
| JEL: | H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2017–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79432&r=dcm |
| By: | Jonathan M.V. Davis; Sara B. Heller |
| Abstract: | This paper reports the results of two randomized field experiments, each offering different populations of youth a supported summer job in Chicago. In both experiments, the program dramatically reduces violent-crime arrests, even after the summer. It does so without improving employment, schooling, or other types of crime; if anything, property crime increases over 2-3 post-program years. To explore mechanisms, we implement a machine learning method that predicts treatment heterogeneity using observables. The method identifies a subgroup of youth with positive employment impacts, whose characteristics differ from the disconnected youth served in most employment programs. We find that employment benefiters commit more property crime than their control counterparts, and non-benefiters also show a decline in violent crime. These results do not seem consistent with typical theory about improved human capital and better labor market opportunities creating a higher opportunity cost of crime, or even with the idea that these programs just keep youth busy. We discuss several alternative mechanisms, concluding that brief youth employment programs can generate substantively important behavioral change, but for different outcomes, different youth, and different reasons than those most often considered in the literature. |
| JEL: | C53 C54 C93 I28 J24 J48 K42 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23443&r=dcm |
| By: | Narayan, Laxmi |
| Abstract: | The paper made a comprehensive analysis of public debt and outstanding liabilities on Haryana with a view to understand whether public debt is used for accelerating growth and development or it is result of misplaced spending priorities by the incumbent governments mainly by opportunistic pre-electoral manipulations. The paper analysed trends in various dimensions of public debt in Haryana such as deficit indicators, decomposition of gross fiscal deficit, financing pattern of gross fiscal deficit, composition of outstanding liabilities, uses of borrowed funds etc. for the period 1980-81 to 2015-16 using yearly data from studies of state finances report of RBI. To understand current situation of debt sustainability and trends in debt sustainability the paper used indicator based approach and econometric estimation of fiscal response function. The paper highlighted that level of debt in relation to repaying capacity of the state is not high but the uses of borrowed funds need to be directed for the productive purposes. Besides testing our main hypothesis of debt sustainability, the paper also made a comparative analysis for the pre-FRBM and post-FRBM period and also for the election cycle years and normal years. |
| Keywords: | Debt sustainability, Fiscal Sustainability, Fiscal Response Function, Public Debt, State Finance |
| JEL: | H30 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2017–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79431&r=dcm |
| By: | Perevyshin, Yuri (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the basic aspects of the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy. Analysis of theoretical studies allows to distinguish two main aspects of interaction: the choice between output and inflation, and the problem of sustainability of public debt and inflation. Using a model with Markov regime-switching, we assessed interaction of fiscal and monetary policy in the Russian economy in the period from 2006 to 2015. The analysis showed that the ongoing uncoordinated monetary and fiscal policy can lead to inflation acceleration. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031711&r=dcm |
| By: | Grzegorz Zimon (Rzeszow University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: SMEs often operate in markets where they compete with large companies. A fight for the customer, payment backlogs, problems with debt collection and new branches make management seek solutions that will influence positively on the situation of financial companies. Maintaining liquidity and generating income are the primary steps to build a competitive position and a progressive development of enterprises. One of the most popular methods that allows companies to do profitable business and increase their chances for safety is operation within group purchasing organizations. Currently in the market there are many different types of GPOs (Group Purchasing Organizations). The choice of the right one is a chance to improve their financial situation. Purpose of the article: This article presents functioning of enterprises within group purchasing organizations and their impact on financial situation of enterprises. In the article the classification of groups is done and there are shown the benefits that commercial enterprises operating in them gain. The article presents some obstacles to join specific group purchasing organizations and difficulties faced by companies operating in them. Methodology/methods: The studies will be carried out on the basis of 60 SMEs. These companies operate in five Polish GPOs. The groups were divided into branch and multi-branch ones. The study period covered the years 2013-2015. In order to analyze the impact of purchasing groups on the financial situation of enterprises there were used selected groups of financial ratios and a preliminary analysis of financial balance sheets and profit and loss account was conducted Findings: The analysis showed that the choice of an appropriate group purchasing organization has a large impact on financial situation of companies. Different opportunities can be offered by a sectoral purchasing group than the multi-sectoral one. Research has shown that better results relate to dynamics of revenues, costs, liquidity, profitability that gives the operation within the sectoral purchasing groups. |
| Keywords: | group purchasing organization; finance; commercial enterprises |
| JEL: | A11 A14 B16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no148&r=dcm |
| By: | Lillo Rodríguez, Rosa Elvira; Laniado Rodas, Henry; Cabana Garceran del Vall, Elisa |
| Abstract: | A collection of methods for multivariate outlier detection based on a robust Mahalanobis distance is proposed. The procedure consists on different combinations of robust estimates for location and covariance matrix based on shrinkage. The performance of our proposal is illustrated, through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study. The resulting high correct classification rates and low false classification rates in the vast majority of cases, and also the good computational times shows the goodness of our proposal. The performance is also illustrated with a real dataset example and some conclusions are established. |
| Keywords: | robust covariance matrix; robust location; robust estimation; high-dimension; shrinkage estimator; robust Mahalanobis distance; outlier detection |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:24613&r=dcm |
| By: | Francisco M. Gonzalez (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo); Itziar Lazkano (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee); Sjak A. Smulders (Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | We show that intergenerational altruism suffers from future bias if generations overlap and people?s altruism concerns the well-being of immediate ancestors and descendants. Future bias involves preference reversals associated with increasing impatience, which can create a con?flict of interest between current and future governments representing living generations. We explore the implications of this con?flict for intergenerational redistribution when there is a sequence of utilitarian governments choosing policies independently over time. We show that future-biased governments can have an incentive to legislate and sustain a pay-as-you-go pension system, which can be understood, from the viewpoint of every government, as a self-enforcing commitment mechanism to increase future old-age transfers. |
| JEL: | D71 D72 H55 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wat:wpaper:1703&r=dcm |
| By: | Li, Zheng |
| Abstract: | Using two-player all-pay auctions, the author fully characterizes the Nash equilibrium under a discrete bidding strategy space. In particular, he shows that under the random tiebreaking rule, the cardinality of the set of Nash equilibrium depends on the parity of the reward size and a continuum of Nash equilibria exists. Additionally, when a simple favorone-sided tie-breaking rule is used, the equilibrium solution becomes independent of the reward size. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric Nash equilibrium,all-pay auction |
| JEL: | D44 D72 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201722&r=dcm |
| By: | Lucyna Witek (Rzeszow University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Environmental pollution has led to a growing interest in protecting the environment of various stakeholder groups, especially consumers, who in their purchasing behavior point to eco-labels. The purpose of the study is to analyze consumers attitudes towards eco-labels. The direct survey method was used. The survey was conducted from 1 December 2015 to 31 January 2016 among 390 consumers who are residents of south-eastern and southern Poland. The study conducted confirms that consumers have positive attitudes toward eco-labels, but have overall and partial knowledge of them. Almost half of respondents (48.2%) buy eco-labels, but only a small group has knowledge of various eco-labels (24.9%). The recognition of EU eco-labels is declared by 43.4% of survey participants (national eco-label – 35.1%). One may notice an inconsistency in the test participant declarations. A large group of respondents believe that manufacturers use eco-labels for sales and image purposes (61%). Only one third (32.1%) have confidence in eco-labels products. Quite a large number of respondents (43.1%) are willing to pay a higher price for such products. Almost three quarters of respondents declared that they were buying products from reliable sources but without eco-labels (76.2%). This study is a valuable contribution to research and a discussion on consumer ecological behavior, and contributes to sustainable consumption research. It creates a deeper and more detailed analysis of attitudes towards eco-labelling. It gives guidance to manufacturers and retailers, especially in consumer communication strategies. The results of the study may help to increase the effectiveness of eco-labelling. The research implies some values to society and helps to solve environmental problems. |
| Keywords: | green product, sustainable consumption, eco-labelling, consumer, ecolabel |
| JEL: | D12 M31 M37 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no142&r=dcm |
| By: | Tatiana Komarova; Denis Nekipelov; Evgeny Yakovlev |
| Abstract: | It is commonplace that the data needed for econometric inference are not contained in a single source. In this paper we analyze the problem of parametric inference from combined individual-level data when data combination is based on personal and demographic identifiers such as name, age, or address. Our main question is the identification of the econometric model based on the combined data when the data do not contain exact individual identifiers and no parametric assumptions are imposed on the joint distribution of information that is common across the combined dataset. We demonstrate the conditions on the observable marginal distributions of data in individual datasets that can and cannot guarantee identification of the parameters of interest. We also note that the data combination procedure is essential in the semiparametric setting such as ours. Provided that the (non-parametric) data combination procedure can only be defined in finite samples, we introduce a new notion of identification based on the concept of limits of statistical experiments. Our results apply to the setting where the individual data used for inferences are sensitive and their combination may lead to a substantial increase in the data sensitivity or lead to a de-anonymization of the previously anonymized information. We demonstrate that the point identification of an econometric model from combined data is incompatible with restrictions on the risk of individual disclosure. If the data combination procedure guarantees a bound on the risk of individual disclosure, then the information available from the combined dataset allows one to identify the parameter of interest only partially, and the size of the identification region is inversely related to the upper bound guarantee for the disclosure risk. This result is new in the context of data combination as we notice that the quality of links that need to be used in the combined data to assure point identification may be much higher than the average link quality in the entire dataset, and thus point inference requires the use of the most sensitive subset of the data. Our results provide important insights into the ongoing discourse on the empirical analysis of merged administrative records as well as discussions on the disclosive nature of policies implemented by the data-driven companies (such as Internet services companies and medical companies using individual patient records for policy decisions) |
| Keywords: | Data protection; model identification; data combination. |
| JEL: | C13 C14 C25 C35 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:79384&r=dcm |
| By: | Tsagris, Michail |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate how to test for conditional independence of two variables with categorical data using Poisson log-linear models. The size of the conditioning set of variables can vary from 0 (simple independence) up to many variables. We also provide a function in R for performing the test. Instead of calculating all possible tables with for loop we perform the test using the log-linear models and thus speeding up the process. Time comparison simulation studies are presented. |
| Keywords: | Conditional independence, categorical data, Poisson log-linear models |
| JEL: | C12 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79464&r=dcm |
| By: | Takashi Kamihigashi (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan); Kazuhiro Seki (Faculty of Intelligence and Informatics, Konan University, Japan, and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan); Masahiko Shibamoto (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a simple approach to measuring social change using text data. The approach is based on the idea that any significant change in a society should affect the distribution of the words used in the society. Essentially we use the total variation distance between the distributions of words in adjacent months as a measure of social change during the latter month. Based on text data from the Nikkei Newspaper from 1989 to 2015, the largest social change observed in Japan during this period took place in March 2011, the month of the Great East Japan Earthquake. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2017-16&r=dcm |
| By: | Dreher, Axel; Gassebner, Martin; Schaudt, Paul |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the stock of foreigners residing in a country leads to a larger number of terrorist attacks on that country. Our instrument for the stock of foreigners relies on the interaction of two sets of variables. Variation across host-origin-dyads results from structural characteristics between the country of origin and the host, while variation over time makes use of changes in push and pull factors between host and origin countries resulting from natural disasters. Controlling for the levels of these variables themselves and fixed effects for dyads and years, the interaction provides a powerful and excludable instrument. Using data for 20 OECD host countries and 187 countries of origin over the 1980-2010 period we show that the probability of a terrorist attack increases with a larger number of foreigners living in a country. However, this scale effect is not larger than the effect domestic populations have on domestic terror. We find some evidence that terror is systematically imported from countries with large Muslim populations. A larger number of attacks against foreigners in the host country increases the risk of terror from foreigners there. We find that host country policies relating to integration and the rights of foreigners are key to fight terror- stricter policies that exclude foreigners already living in a country increase the risk of terror. High-skilled migrants are associated with a significantly lower risk of terror compared to low-skilled ones, while there is no significant difference between male and female migrants. |
| Keywords: | migration; migration policy; Terrorism |
| JEL: | D74 F22 F52 P48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12062&r=dcm |
| By: | Lamont K. Black; John Krainer; Joseph B. Nichols |
| Abstract: | When collateral is safe, there are less opportunities for things to go wrong. We examine matching between collateral and creditors in the commercial real estate mortgage market by comparing loans in commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) conduits and bank portfolios. We model CMBS financing as lower cost but less informed, such that only safe collateral is funded by CMBS. This prediction is tested using the 2007-2009 shutdown of the CMBS market as a natural experiment. The loans funded by banks that would have been securitized are less likely to default or be renegotiated, indicating that the securitization channel, when available, funds safe collateral. |
| Keywords: | Collateral ; Commercial banking ; Commercial real estate ; Securitization |
| JEL: | G21 G24 G33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-56&r=dcm |
| By: | Dean Hyslop (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Wilbur Townsend (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the longer term impacts of involuntary job loss of workers subsequent employment, earnings, and income support in New Zealand. It uses data from the Survey of Family, Income and Employment (SoFIE) to identify job displacements over the period 2001–10, matched to administrative data from Statistics New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) covering the period 1999–2015, to facilitate at least five years of post-displacement observations. Following Dixon and Maré (2013), our analysis focuses on workers who had been employed for at least one year before their job displacement. Using both regression-adjustment and propensity score matching methods, we estimate that experiencing a job displacement substantially affected workers employment, earnings and income over the following five years. Compared to workers who did not lose their jobs, we estimate their employment rate was 20-25% lower in the year following displacement and, although their employment gradually improved, was still 8-12% lower five years later. Similarly, we estimate displaced workers’ conditional earnings and total income were 25-30% lower in the first year and 13-22% lower five years after being displaced. Such adverse effects are partly counterbalanced by higher levels of welfare benefit receipt and income support: benefit receipt was 6-11% and 3-4% higher after one and five years. We also find that the impacts were stronger for workers displaced from jobs during the great recession from 2008, with about 5% larger short and longer-term effects on employment, which were balanced by 3-5% higher rates of benefit receipt. |
| Keywords: | Displaced workers, matching, SoFIE, IDI |
| JEL: | J63 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:17_12&r=dcm |
| By: | Yan-Yu Chiou; Mei-Yuan Chen; Jau-er Chen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines nonparametric regressions with an exogenous threshold variable, allowing for an unknown number of thresholds. Given the number of thresholds and corresponding threshold values, we first establish the asymptotic properties of the local-constant estimator for a nonparametric regression with multiple thresholds. We then determine the unknown number of thresholds and derive the limiting distribution of the proposed test. The Monte Carlo simulation results indicate the adequacy of the modified test and accuracy of the sequential estimation of the threshold values. We apply our testing procedure to an empirical study of the 401(k) retirement savings plan with income thresholds. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.09418&r=dcm |
| By: | Birhanu, Mulugeta Y.; Ambaw, Birhanu; Mulu, Yohannis |
| Abstract: | Empirical studies on the dynamics of multidimensional child poverty are very limited and still more research is required to understand its nature and triggering factors especially in the context of developing countries. In light of this, this paper tries to assess the dynamics of multidimensional child poverty and major factors associated with it using longitudinal data mainly collected to assess child poverty in Ethiopia. It uses multilevel mixed effect logit models that could possibly incorporates fixed and random effects to capture the effect of cluster level and time varying variables on multidimensional child poverty transition. Results of the multidimensional poverty analysis indicate that, although there were significant variations among regions, multidimensional child poverty has decreased during 2002-2009. The paper argues that multidimensional child poverty has dynamic nature that would possibly resulted from the interaction of multiple factors including household demographic, household capital (human, social and resources), household economic activities, geographic locations, and household shocks. Moreover, the study shows the relevance of considering cluster level differences during poverty analysis to generate information relevant for designing targeted policies and strategies that would help to distribute available development resources efficiently and achieve sustainable poverty reduction in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Child Poverty; Poverty dynamics, Mixed Effect; Multilevel Logit Model |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2017–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79377&r=dcm |
| By: | Pyzhov, Vladislav; Pyzhov, Stanislav |
| Abstract: | This paper is based on the work of Yeh, Lien (2009). In the paper, authors used the payment data set from the important bank in Taiwan. To build a model, the whole sample was divided in two subsets - training and testing sets - so each model could be trained on the first one and then be evaluated on the second. Our motivation was to see whether the same result could be obtained if we repeatedly apply the models to the different data sets. To do so, Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to generate these sets. |
| Keywords: | Monte-Carlo, Data Mining, Neural Networks, k-nearest neighbors, Logistic regression, Random Forest. |
| JEL: | C53 C81 C87 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79326&r=dcm |
| By: | Jennifer Lyons; Sheila Hoag; Cara Orfield; Sonya Streeter |
| Abstract: | Technical assistance (TA) is nonfinancial assistance meant to impart information, skills, and expertise from one person or entity to others. |
| Keywords: | Technical-assistance program design and implementation, evaluation, technical-assistance best practices, foundation technical assistance, technical-assistance development, technical-assistance delivery mechanisms |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:79d7029f5b8548e5831a7fae757679dc&r=dcm |
| By: | Kim Mook; Sarah Forrestal |
| Abstract: | This presentation investigates commercial locating database efficacy among a telephone survey of low-income households with children. We examine locating database coverage and review telephone accuracy by source, comparing data provided by the sample frame and two different locating databases. |
| Keywords: | Low income populations, locating, locating databases, telephone survey, database coverage |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:ba880de702b943b4843c2df3f583ce60&r=dcm |
| By: | Georgios Bampinas (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Konstantinos Ladopoulos (Citrix Systems Research & Development); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | We employ 1440 stocks listed in the S&P Composite 1500 Index of the NYSE. Three benchmark GARCH models are estimated for the returns of each individual stock under three alternative distributions (Normal, t and GED).We provide summary statistics for all the GARCH coefficients derived from 11520 regressions. The EGARCH model with GED errors emerges as the preferred choice for the individual stocks in the S&P 1500 universe when non-negativity and stationarity constraints in the conditional variance are imposed. 57% of the constraint’s violations are taking place in the S&P small cap stocks. |
| Keywords: | GARCH, GJR-GARCH, EGARCH, alternative distributions, volatility, time-series. |
| JEL: | C22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2017_04&r=dcm |
| By: | KOUJAKU Sadamori; MIYAKAWA Daisuke |
| Abstract: | Applying the exponential random graph model (Robins et al. 2007) to the investment data of Japanese venture capital (VC) firms, we document the relationship between VC performance and the dynamics of their co-investment networks. First, we find that VCs' co-investment network formation is not independent from VC characteristics. Second, VCs' past experiences of co-investments contribute to a higher likelihood of future co-investments among them, not only when VCs gain higher returns from their past co-investments but also when the jointly invested venture business companies (VBs) experience higher growth after an initial public offering (IPO). Third, such positive assortativity in terms of the returns obtained from their co-investment has become significantly weaker after the great financial crisis in 2007-2009. These results suggest that the poor financial market conditions make network structures less stiff. Fourth, somewhat puzzlingly, the positive assortativity in terms of jointly invested VBs' growth has become stronger after the great financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17084&r=dcm |
| By: | Luca Pensieroso (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Alessandro Sommacal (University of Verona, Department of Economics; Bocconi University, Dondena Centre (Welfare State and Taxation Unit)) |
| Abstract: | We show that the structural change of the economy from agriculture to industry was a major determinant of the observed shift in intergenerational coresidence. We build a two-sector overlapping generation model of the structural change out of agriculture, in which the coresidence choice is endogenous. We calibrate the model on US data and simulate it. The model can match well the decline in US intergenerational coresidence between 1870 and 1940. |
| Keywords: | living arrangements, family economics, structural change, economic development, unified growth theory |
| JEL: | O40 O11 O33 J10 E13 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2017007&r=dcm |
| By: | Luca Pensieroso (Université Catholique de Louvain); Alessandro Sommacal (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | We show that the structural change of the economy from agriculture to industry was a major determinant of the observed shift in intergenerational coresidence. We build a two-sector overlapping generation model of the structural change out of agriculture, in which the coresidence choice is endogenous. We calibrate the model on US data and simulate it. The model can match well the decline in US intergenerational coresidence between 1870 and 1940. |
| Keywords: | living arrangements, family economics, structural change, economic development, unified growth theory |
| JEL: | O40 O11 O33 J10 E13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:10/2017&r=dcm |
| By: | Patricio Hevia; César Vásquez |
| Abstract: | This document presents a characterization of the average interest rate of mortgage loans published by the Central Bank of Chile. This characterization has been done from an analysis of the level and coefficient of variation of the interest rates for different grouping of credits according to amount and term. In particular, this paper uses the data from loans for the acquisition of a property with a price adjusted by inflation (unidad de fomento, UF) for the period 2013-2016. The main result obtained is that groups according to amount and term have a different level of interest rate and dispersion. The breakdowns studied exhibit a high correlation with the aggregate rate. Therefore, the interest rate published by the Central Bank of Chile is representative of the behavior of different types of credit that exist in the mortgage market. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchee:122&r=dcm |
| By: | Yasuharu SHIMAMURA (Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University); Hiroshi NISHINO (Metrics Work Consultants Inc); Hirofumi TSURUTA (Namidabashi Lab. Co., Ltd); Keitaro AOYAGI (Metrics Work Consultants Inc) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effect of a groundwater development project in rural Zambia. Our empirical analysis using a difference-in-differences methodology under an experimental setting reveals that the project reduced the incidence of diarrhea over the past two weeks by 1.6 percentage points among individuals of all age groups and by 5.9 percentage points among children under five. This study, however, simultaneously finds that the impact of the newly constructed water supply facilities is highly likely to be impaired by recontamination of improved source water during transport and storage, which appears further deteriorated by a reduction in the use of water treatment methods at home. |
| Keywords: | waterborne disease; groundwater development; Zambia; impact evaluation; Japan International Cooperation Agency; development project |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kcs:wpaper:31&r=dcm |
| By: | Saglam, Ismail |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a new heuristic to be used as a mate search strategy in the Todd and Miller's (1999) human mate choice model. This heuristic, which we call Take the Weighted Average with the Next Desiring Date, is a plausible search rule in terms of informational assumptions, while in terms of mating likelihood it is almost as good as the most successful, yet also unrealistic, heuristic of Todd and Miller (1999), namely the Mate Value-5 rule, which assumes that agents in the mating population completely know their own mate values before interacting with any date. The success of our heuristic stems from its extreme power to lead an average agent in the mating population to always underestimate his/her own mate value during the adolescence (learning) phase of the mating process. However, this humble heuristic does not perform well in terms of marital stability. We find that the mean within-pair difference is always higher under our heuristic (possibly due to high estimation errors made in the learning phase) than under any heuristic of Todd and Miller (1999). It seems that becoming ready to pair up with agents whose mate values are well below one's own mate value pays off well in the mating phase but also incurs an increased risk of marital dissolution. |
| Keywords: | Mate Choice; Mate Search; Simple Heuristics; Agent-Based Simulation |
| JEL: | C63 J12 |
| Date: | 2017–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79448&r=dcm |
| By: | de Groot, Oliver (University of St. Andrews); Richter, Alexander (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Throckmorton, Nathaniel (College of William & Mary) |
| Keywords: | Stochastic Volatility; Epstein-Zin Preferences; Uncertainty; Economic Activity |
| JEL: | D81 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:1706&r=dcm |
| By: | Lumpe, Claudia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how beliefs of the destination country's population in social mobility may influence the location choice of high-skilled migrants. We pool macro data from the IAB brain drain dataset with population survey data from the ISSP for the period 1987-2010 to identify the effect of public beliefs in social mobility on the share of high-skilled immigrants (stocks) in the main OECD immigration countries. The empirical results suggest that countries with higher "American Dream" beliefs, i.e., with stronger beliefs that climbing the social ladder can be realized by own hard work, attracted a higher proportion of high-skilled immigrants over time. This pattern even holds against the fact that existing social mobility in these countries is relatively lower. |
| Keywords: | immigration,public beliefs,social mobility,social status |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:691&r=dcm |
| By: | SANTAEULÀLIA-LLOPIS, Raül; IORIO, Daniela; GROES, Fane; LEUNG, Man Yee Mallory |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from Denmark (1995-2009) we find that maternal education significantly determines IVF success (live birth). Compared with high school dropouts, patients with a college (high school) degree have a 24% (16%) higher chance of attaining a live birth through IVF. Our explorations of the mechanisms underlying the education gradient rule out financial considerations, clinic characteristics, and medical conditions. Instead, we argue that the education gradient in IVF reflects educational disparities in the adoption of the IVF technology. These results are important because women’s career and fertility choices are likely to be influenced by the determinants of IVF success. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, IVF, Educational disparities |
| JEL: | I12 I24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2017/05&r=dcm |
| By: | Rajapaksa, Darshana; Islam, Moinul; Managi, Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | The impact of natural disasters on inclusive growth has received little attention from empirical analyses compared to the attention focused on other growth parameters. Thus, this study considers country-level panel data (108 countries over 25 years) and estimates three econometric models to explore the nexus of natural capital depletion and climate-related natural disasters. The results indicate that the impact is nonlinear: there is an inverted ‘U’ shape for small-to-medium level disasters in which natural capital depletion is increasing. The impact of natural disasters is higher when the magnitude of resource depletion is lower or higher. Similarly, trade openness, FDI and GDP growth rate are other important determinants of natural capital. This paper provides insights into how sustainable development can be pursued by means of conserving natural resources in the face of frequent climate-related disasters. It particularly emphasizes the importance of considering small-to-medium size disasters and the threat of disaster in countries with low levels of natural capital depletion. |
| Keywords: | Natural capital, disaster, inclusive growth, sustainability, semi-parametric panel fixed effect model, fixed effect, quantile regression |
| JEL: | O1 O11 O13 O44 Q2 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79277&r=dcm |
| By: | Strittmatter, Anthony; Lechner, Michael |
| Abstract: | The disclosure of the VW emission manipulation scandal caused a quasi-experimental market shock in the observable quality of VW diesel vehicles. We consider a classical model for adverse selection and sorting to derive an empirically testable hypothesis about the impact of observable quality on the supply of used cars. We test the hypothesis with data collected from an online car selling platform which reflects about 50% of the German used-car market. The empirical approach is based on a conditional difference-in-differences method. We find that the supply of used VW diesel vehicles increases after the VW emission scandal. This finding is consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Furthermore, we find the positive supply effects increase with the probability of manipulation. |
| Keywords: | Supply of used cars, quality of durable goods, sorting, difference-in-differences, management fraud |
| JEL: | D82 L15 L62 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2017:06&r=dcm |
| By: | Grunewald, Mara |
| Abstract: | In den letzten Jahren ist die allgemeine Lebenszufriedenheit der Bürger in Deutschland gestiegen. Rund 55 Prozent geben eine hohe Zufriedenheit an, während dies vor 10 Jahren nur 35 Prozent taten. Arbeit ist ein wichtiger Zufriedenheitsmotor und macht auch im Alter glücklich. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:372017&r=dcm |
| By: | - |
| Keywords: | POLITICA ENERGETICA, POLITICA GUBERNAMENTAL, PERSONAS CON DISCAPACIDAD, DERECHOS HUMANOS, TRANSPORTE, DESARROLLO SOCIAL, ELABORACION DE POLITICAS, CONFERENCIAS, TURISMO, TRANSPORTE MARITIMO, MEDIO AMBIENTE, POLITICA FISCAL, ESTRATEGIAS DEL DESARROLLO, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, COOPERACION REGIONAL, CDCC, OBJETIVOS DE DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO, SERVICIOS FINANCIEROS, TECNOLOGIA DE LA INFORMACION, TECNOLOGIA DE LAS COMUNICACIONES, TRANSFERENCIA ELECTRONICA DE FONDOS, INTERNET, TELECOMUNICACIONES, CONDICIONES POLITICAS, CULTURA, ENERGY POLICY, GOVERNMENT POLICY, PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES, HUMAN RIGHTS, TRANSPORT, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, POLICY MAKING, CONFERENCES, TOURISM, MARITIME TRANSPORT, ENVIRONMENT, FISCAL POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, REGIONAL COOPERATION, CDCC, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL SERVICES, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY, ELECTRONIC FUNDS TRANSFER, INTERNET, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, POLITICAL CONDITIONS, CULTURE |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col095:41501&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Murawska (Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy im. Jana i Jedrzeja Œniadeckich w Bydgoszczy, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Poziom wyksztalcenia ludnosci odgrywa istotna role jako uwarunkowanie dobrej pracy i godziwego wynagrodzenia i w konsekwencji jest jednym z podstawowych czynnikow wplywajacych na rozwoj gospodarczy oraz poziom i jakosc zycia. Glownym celem badañ jest okreslenie zaleznosci pomiedzy poziomem wyksztalcenia ludnosci w poszczegolnych krajach czlonkowskich Unii Europejskiej, a sytuacja na rynku pracy, w szczegolnosci poziomem zatrudnienia oraz bezrobocia. Zaleznosci pomiedzy analizowanymi wskaznikami oraz istniejace roznice i dystanse pomiedzy krajami przedstawiono dla trzech grup: 28 krajow czlonkowskich (UE-28), „starej” 15-stki (UE-15) oraz „nowych” 13-stu krajow europejskich, ktore staly sie czlonkami UE od 2004 roku (UE-13).Do oceny podjetej problematyki uwzgledniono wskazniki charakteryzujace poziom wyksztalcenia oraz zatrudnienia i bezrobocia ludnosci. Zrodlem danych empirycznych byly informacje pochodzace z Europejskiego Urzedu Statystycznego. Analizie poddano 28 krajow Unii Europejskiej. Okresem badawczym byly lata 2006-2015. Obliczono miedzy innymi wspolczynniki zmiennosci, dynamiki i korelacji. W celu dokonania opisu danych statystycznych zastosowano metode opisowa, porownawcza i tabelaryczna. Stare kraje czlonkowskie Unii Europejskiej (UE-15), w porownaniu do grupy nowych krajow UE-13, zamieszkuje istotnie wiecej osob bez wyksztalcenia lub posiada je na najnizszym poziomie, oraz rownoczesnie istotnie wiekszy jest odsetek osob z wyksztalceniem wyzszym. W zakresie poziomu wyksztalcenia podstawowego, sredniego i wyzszego dystans pomiedzy starymi i nowymi krajami UE nieznacznie zmniejsza sie, poglebia sie natomiast w zakresie odsetka mlodych ludzi, ktorzy nie pracuja i nie ucza sie oraz wskaznika uczestnictwa w ksztalceniu sie osob doroslych, na niekorzysc nowych pañstw czlonkowskich. Roznice w poziomie wyksztalcenia znajduja swoje odzwierciedlenie w skali zatrudnienia i bezrobocia ludnosci. |
| Keywords: | wyksztalcenie, zatrudnienie, bezrobocie, poziom, wplyw, zroznicowanie, kraje, Unia Europejska |
| JEL: | I24 I25 J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no82&r=dcm |
| By: | Yair Tauman; Chang Zhao |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-05&r=dcm |
| By: | Kebalo, Léleng |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of the high economic openness of West African economies coupled with liability dollarization, on their economic activities. By using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in a small open economy framework, and performing an experiment based on a case of moderate economic openness and another case on the high economic openness, we find that the high economic openness of west african economies constitutes a brake for their economic progress. This external constraint annihilates the effects of the economic policies implemented to stimulate economic growth, and consequently create macroeconomic imbalances. For small countries like those in West Africa, a moderate economic openness would be advantageous because it would allow them to develop a domestic market that presents many economic advantages and above all, to protect it from foreign competition. It is necessary to decrease now this dependency in order to avoid a polarization of economic blocks after the creation of a Currency Union in West Africa. |
| Keywords: | Economic openness, Financial liberalization, economic growth, Economic integration, Financial accelerator, DSGE model |
| JEL: | E32 E66 F34 F41 F43 F44 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79442&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Zabkowicz (Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The privatized and capitalized old-age insurance in Chile has recently witnessed reforms under President Bachelet which extended the social safety net as well as re-introduced publicly-administered programs on behalf of retirees. The article reviews the performance of the system up to the most recent reform and presents results of pension engineering in a systematic way in attempt to estimate the scope of change. The method relies on orderly analysis which is founded on review of the literature relevant to the subject. Bringing the state back into Chile's pension system can be viewed as a plan to subsidize total retirement benefits in order to improve the distressing rates of replacement and, in such indirect way, to support the longevity of privately-managed pension funds. |
| Keywords: | the political economy of pension reforms - funded pensions - solidarity benefits |
| JEL: | P16 B52 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no146&r=dcm |
| By: | Rohit Azad (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:1719&r=dcm |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | L’essor de l'économie touristique se heurte à des difficultés liées non seulement à la situation économique mondiale, à la baisse des budgets, aux taux de change fluctuants, mais aussi à des bouleversements économiques et technologiques tendanciels plus profonds, sources de turbulences supplémentaires sur le marché. Plusieurs pays étudient donc de nouveaux modèles, notamment des stratégies numériques, permettant de relier la politique du tourisme, la commercialisation du tourisme et le développement des produits. Le rapport examine certains des défis auxquels sont actuellement confrontées les autorités publiques responsables de la commercialisation et de la promotion du tourisme, ainsi que les perspectives offertes dans ce domaine, pour ce qui est de la recherche de nouvelles sources de financement, des possibilités de partenariat, des stratégies de promotion et des systèmes de gouvernance. Ce rapport a bénéficié d'importantes contributions et apports de 16 pays: Afrique du Sud, Australie, Danemark, Estonie, Finlande, France, Islande, Israël, Italie, Lettonie, Philippines, Pologne, Portugal, Royaume-Uni, Slovénie, et Suède. Les études de cas sur les pays offrent des exemples d'initiatives prises par les pouvoirs publics et les entreprises pour relever ces défis. |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaad:2017/1-fr&r=dcm |
| By: | Abel Brodeur (University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); Kerry Nield (Bank of Canada, Ottawa, ON) |
| Abstract: | In New York City (NYC), it has been a common complaint that it is difficult to find a taxi in the rain. Using all Uber rides in NYC from April to September 2014 and January 2015 to December 2016, we show that the number of Uber rides is significantly correlated with whether it rained. The number of Uber rides per hour is about 18 percent higher when it is raining, suggesting that surge pricing encourages an increase in supply. During the same time period, the number of taxi rides per hour increases by only 5 percent in rainy hours. We then show that the number of taxi rides, passengers and fare income all significantly decreased after Uber entered the New York market in May 2011, suggesting that Uber is depressing taxi demand. Last, we test whether the total (Uber plus taxi) number of rides in rainy hours increased since May 2011. Our estimates suggest that it is relatively easier to get a ride in rainy than in non-rainy hours in post-Uber years. |
| Keywords: | Persistence, Rain, Uber, Taxi, Dynamic Pricing |
| JEL: | D01 D03 L92 J22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:1708e&r=dcm |
| By: | Artyom Jelnov; Yair Tauman; Richard Zeckhauser |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-01&r=dcm |
| By: | José Manuel Vassallo; Armando Ortuño; Ofelia Betancor |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo se ha llevado a cabo una aproximación macro al cálculo de las cuentas de los modos de transporte interurbanos en España. Las cuentas se han calculado para el año 2013, al ser este el último año para el que existe información estadística completa. Este trabajo aporta información de interés para la evaluación del funcionamiento de las infraestructuras y servicios de transporte en nuestro país. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2017-14&r=dcm |
| By: | Davide De Gaetano |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes some weighting schemes to average forecasts across different estimation windows to account for structural changes in the unconditional variance of a GARCH (1,1) model. Each combination is obtained by averaging forecasts generated by recursively increasing an initial estimation window of a fixed number of observations v. Three different choices of the combination weights are proposed. In the first scheme, the forecast combination is obtained by using equal weights to average the individual forecasts; the second weighting method assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information; the third is a trimmed version of the forecast combination with equal weights where a fixed fraction of forecasts with the worst performance are discarded. Simulation results show that forecast combinations with high values of v are able to perform better than alternative schemes proposed in the literature. An application to real data confirms the simulation results |
| Keywords: | Forecast combinations, Structural breaks, GARCH models. |
| JEL: | C53 C58 G17 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0219&r=dcm |
| By: | Henrike Junge |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwddc:dd89&r=dcm |
| By: | Michał Dzieliński; Alexander F. Wagner; Richard J. Zeckhauser |
| Abstract: | Managers conducting earnings conference calls display distinctive styles in their word choice. Some CEOs and CFOs are straight talkers. Others, by contrast, are vague talkers. Vague talkers routinely use qualifying words indicating uncertainty, such as “approximately”, “probably”, or “maybe”. Analysts and the stock market attend to the style of managerial talk. They find earnings news less informative when managers are vague; they respond less and more slowly as a result. Thus, quantitative information and straightforward contextual information prove to be complements. Vague communications have the potential benefit of tamping down over-optimistic analysts expectations. |
| JEL: | G14 G30 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23425&r=dcm |
| By: | Marco Faillo; Costanza Piovanelli |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to investigate experimentally whether and to what extent subjects’ intrinsic motivation and performance change when they are allowed to self-set their own wage for performing a task; moreover, it investigates how differently motivated people react to the possibility of deter- mining their own wage. We propose a novel experimental design, in which the subjects are asked to perform a complex real-effort task under two different conditions: wages can be either chosen by the subjects themselves, or randomly determined. With this setting, we are able to disentangle intrinsic motivation from the reciprocity concerns that are likely to characterize the standard principal-agent interaction. Our main result is that subjects increase their performance more when they are delegated the wage choice than when they receive a random payment; moreover, subjects who are both highly motivated and delegated their wage choice are those who perform better. Finally, subjects with higher motivation ask for lower wages. |
| Keywords: | Compensation, Incentives, Delegation, Motivation, Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 J33 M52 M54 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpce:1701&r=dcm |
| By: | Stacey H. Chen (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Yu-Kuan Chen (Teach-for-Taiwan Association); Huey-Min Wu (National Academy for Educational Research, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | Datasets of schools or hospitals often include an urban-rural divide drawn by government. Such partition is typically determined by subjective thresholds for a few variables, such as access to transportation and local population size, leaving aside relevant factors despite datavailability. We propose to measure eremoteness f by mapping a comprehensive set of covariates onto a scalar, and define an objective score of remoteness using a standard selection model. We apply the proposed method to data from Taiwanese public elementary schools. Our method replaces 35% and 47% respectively of the current official list of eremote f and eextra-remote f campuses, shifting the remoteness designation to those furthest from train stations, having the highest teacher vacancy percentages, and located in the least populous areas with the least well-educated populations. The campus- and district-level variables used are publicly available and periodically updated in most advanced economies, and the statistical model can be easily implemented. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:17-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Joint Research Center of the European Commission - IPTS |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the economic impact of the European Commission proposal for a common corporate tax base (CCTB) and a common consolidated corporate tax base with formula apportionment (CCCTB) within the EU. Furthermore, on top of the common base, it considers proposals to reduce the debt bias in corporate taxation. To do so, we employ an applied general equilibrium model (CORTAX) covering all EU Member States, featuring different firm types and modelling many key features of corporate tax regimes, including multinational profit shifting, investment decisions, loss compensation and the debt-equity choice of firms. |
| Keywords: | corporate taxation, CGEM, debt-bias, European Union |
| JEL: | H25 H26 H68 H87 C68 |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxpap:0066&r=dcm |
| By: | Pradeep Dubey; Yair Tauman |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-02&r=dcm |
| By: | Nelson, Katherine M.; Schlüter, Achim; Vance, Colin |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of participants' distributional preferences on donations of money and time using a field experiment with marine resource users in Indonesia. Individuals participate in a real effort task to earn money and are faced with a donation decision under different treatments - monetary donation, time donation, monetary match, and time match. In the distributional preferences elicitation we classify individuals' preferences as benevolent, egalitarian, own-money-maximizing, and spiteful. We find that the different distributional preference types are a significant indicator of participants' donation behavior. The people showing spiteful preferences and those that focus only on maximizing their own payoff are less likely to donate any amount compared to those that make egalitarian choices. Furthermore, we find strong evidence that individuals that choose payoff structures characterized as "benevolent" donate a significantly higher amount compared to the egalitarian types. We analyze the results econometrically in two-stages to better understand the determining factors for whether an individual donates and those factors that determine how much one donates. Practical implications involve the segmentation of the target audience, not by the type of charity but by the mechanism which motivates their donation behavior. |
| Keywords: | distributional preferences,donations,field experiment |
| JEL: | Q22 Z1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:690&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz Berent (Warsaw School of Economics); Boguslaw Blawat (Kozminski University); Marek Dietl (Warsaw School of Economics); Radoslaw Rejman (Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Bankruptcy literature is populated with scores of (econometric) models ranging from Altman’s Z-score, Ohlson’s O-score, Zmijewski’s probit model to k-nearest neighbors, classification trees, support vector machines, mathematical programming, evolutionary algorithms or neural networks, all designed to predict financial distress with highest precision. Purpose of the article: We believe corporate default is too an important research topic to be identified with the prediction accuracy only. Despite the wealth of modelling effort, a unified theory of default is yet to be proposed. Due to the disagreement, both on the definition and hence the timing of default as well as on the measurement of prediction accuracy, the comparison (of predictive power) of various models can be seriously misleading. The purpose of the article is to argue for the shift in research focus from maximizing accuracy to the analysis of the information capacity of predictors. By doing this, we may yet come closer to understand default itself. Methodology/methods: We have critically appraised the bankruptcy research literature for its methodological variety and empirical findings. Default definitions, sampling procedures, in and out-of-sample testing and accuracy measurement have all been scrutinized. We believe the bankruptcy models currently used are, using the language of Feyerabend, incommensurable. Findings: Instead of what we call the population of models paradigm (the comparison of predictive power of different models) prevailing today, we propose the model of population paradigm, consisting in the estimation a single unified default forecasting platform for both listed and non-listed firms, and analyze the marginal contribution of the different information sources. In addition to classical corporate financial data, information on both firm's strategic position and its macroeconomic environment should be studied. |
| Keywords: | default, bankruptcy, default probability; prediction accuracy, informational capacity |
| JEL: | C53 E47 G33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no158&r=dcm |
| By: | Yair Tauman; Yoram Weiss; Chang Zhao |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Nicolas Véron |
| Abstract: | The banking crisis in the euro area, which started in mid-2007 and has yet to be fully resolved, has sparked considerable debate and reform, most notably the initiation of banking union starting in mid-2012. But one issue that has been largely overlooked in the debate is the peculiar ownership and governance structures of euro-area banks. European policymakers and analysts often appear to assume that most banks are publicly listed companies with ownership scattered among many institutional investors (‘dispersed ownership’), a structure in which no single shareholder has a controlling influence and that allows for considerable flexibility to raise capital when needed (‘capital flexibility’). This Policy Contribution shows, however, that listed banks with dispersed ownership are the exception rather than the rule among the euro area’s significant banks , especially if one looks beyond the very largest banking groups. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:20703&r=dcm |
| By: | Nicolas Véron |
| Abstract: | The banking crisis in the euro area, which started in mid-2007 and has yet to be fully resolved, has sparked considerable debate and reform, most notably the initiation of banking union starting in mid-2012. But one issue that has been largely overlooked in the debate is the peculiar ownership and governance structures of euro-area banks. European policymakers and analysts often appear to assume that most banks are publicly listed companies with ownership scattered among many institutional investors (‘dispersed ownership’), a structure in which no single shareholder has a controlling influence and that allows for considerable flexibility to raise capital when needed (‘capital flexibility’). This Policy Contribution shows, however, that listed banks with dispersed ownership are the exception rather than the rule among the euro area’s significant banks , especially if one looks beyond the very largest banking groups. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polbrf:20703&r=dcm |
| By: | Dongwon Lee (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Kyungkeun Kim |
| Keywords: | Diminishing returns; Exchange rate volatility; Global financial crisis; International reserves |
| JEL: | F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201705&r=dcm |
| By: | Kyle Bergquist (Economics and Statistics Division, World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.); Julio Raffo (Economics and Statistics Division, World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.); Carsten Fink (World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.) |
| Keywords: | innovation; clusters; innovation geography; patents. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wip:wpaper:34&r=dcm |
| By: | Zolotareva, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The article deals with the problems of functioning of consolidated groups of taxpayers and the prospects for reforming the institute of tax consolidation taking into account foreign experience. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031713&r=dcm |
| By: | Nor, Amirudin Mohd; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the causal relationship between Islamic banks’ non-performing financing (NPF) and conventional banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) for the banking industry in Malaysia. To further understand these asset quality variables, we added domestic macroeconomic variables namely domestic credit, real lending rate and exchange rate for the period January 2007 to January 2017. Using time series cointegrating VAR models, coupled with the Long Run Structural Modelling (LRSM), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Variance Decompositions (VDC), the results tend to suggest that NPF leads NPL. Contrary to expectation, the VDC results suggest that NPF and NPL variables are leading and lagging respectively. This unexpected result gives rise to many interesting arguments especially within the Islamic banking perspectives. Apart from providing important insights into the causality between NPF and NPL, our results contribute to the policy implications. Interest rate variable being the most leading variable may be used to affect both NPFs and NPLs. |
| Keywords: | non-performing financing, non-performing loans, causality, LRSM |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2017–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79425&r=dcm |
| By: | Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); He, Ming (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Rudkin, Simon (SHU-UTS SILC Business School, University of Shanghai) |
| Abstract: | Economists talk of agglomeration bene ting rms but little work has sought to understand the impact various consequences of close location of rms has on productivity. Using unconditional quantile regression for the rst time in productivity we revisit the Chinese Industry Survey, from 1999 to 2007, to ask (a) how does spatial competition, local diversity, population density and regional specialisation impact across the productivity distribution, and (b) how have these effects changed through China's opening up to foreign direct investment. High productivity firms bene t more from specialist agglomerations, monopoly and can take larger advantage of market size compared to those which are less productive. |
| Keywords: | Unconditional Quantile Regression, Manufacturing Productivity, China, Agglomeration. |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Thomas Collerton (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Andrea Marrella (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Massimo Mecella (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Tiziana Catarci (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Business travellers are those people who attend work-related meetings and in their few hours of spare time would like to see the best that the host city can offer in terms of cultural activities and sightseeings. In this work we present a complex architecture, consisting of mobile applications and back-end server components, which supports such a type of users in recommending possible routes within their constraints. The three main contributions are (i) a set of machine learning algorithms that can be used to detect a queuing state of a user with a high degree of accuracy, (ii) how to determine user’s positioning, and (iii)how to practically realize a planner providing a reasonably good enough route plan within a handful of seconds. Preliminary tests demonstrate that the single components of the proposed architecture are feasible and provide good results. |
| Keywords: | planning ; crowd-sourced data ; cultural heritage ; smart tourism |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aeg:report:2017-07&r=dcm |
| By: | Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto |
| Abstract: | Em 15 de dezembro de 1976, nova lei das sociedades por ações (S.As.) introduziu, entre outras inovações, a exigência de distribuição mínima obrigatória de resultados anuais ('dividendo mínimo obrigatório'). O presente trabalho considera, como referência conceitual, a chamada teoria residual da política de dividendos, segundo a qual os dividendos são determinados pelo que sobraria após a otimização de decisões tanto de investimento quanto de financiamento. Com o dividendo mínimo obrigatório, introduziu-se uma restrição a esse comportamento por parte das empresas. É testada a hipótese de que a restrição afetou o nível de investimento das empresas, o que é parcialmente confirmado por um termo de interação com o de pagamento de dividendos. É usado um enfoque de 'diferenças em diferenças', com dados contábeis de 233 companhias abertas no período de 1973 a 1980. |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:446&r=dcm |
| By: | Shaofeng Xu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs. The model shows that a rise in volatility can decelerate growth in the absence of any level shocks. In contrast to level risk, which is always welfare reducing for a risk-averse household, volatility risk can increase or decrease welfare, depending on model parameters. When calibrated to U.S. data, the model finds that the welfare cost of volatility risk is largely negligible under plausible model parameterizations. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models |
| JEL: | E2 E3 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:17-20&r=dcm |
| By: | Juan-Francisco Martínez; Rodrigo Cifuentes; Juan Sebastián Becerra |
| Abstract: | The stress tests are tools widely used by commercial banks, bank supervisors, central banks and international organizations, each of them with different objectives. The Central Bank of Chile uses them to evaluate potential impacts of aggregate shocks on the stability of the banking system as a whole. The development of these tests at this institution began more than a decade ago and now includes market and credit risks. Over the years, substantial progress has been made in both the estimation methodology and the data used, as well as in the delivery of the results. In the present update, the probabilities associated to the stress scenario are estimated. As for the model, its statistical significance is improved by including additional variables suggested by economic theory. In addition, it includes a section of indicators that support the reading and interpretation of the results. Thus, this document provides a detailed review of recent improvements and identifies potential improvements. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:801&r=dcm |
| By: | Roel Henckaerts; Katrien Antonio; Maxime Clijsters; Roel Verbelen |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:afiper:583471&r=dcm |
| By: | Roel Henckaerts; Katrien Antonio; Maxime Clijsters; Roel Verbelen |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:kbiper:583471&r=dcm |
| By: | Francis Bloch (Université Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics); David Cantala (El Colegio de México); Damián Gibaja (Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla) |
| Abstract: | We model a matching market with institutions -inspired by the assignment of social housing in Paris- as a three-sided market. Institutions own objects and have agents attached to them. Agents have preferences over objects. Objects have priorities over institutions. We show that fair assignments satisfying distributional constraints may fail to exist, and propose a sufficient condition -the over-demand condition- under which we prove existence. Existence derives from the construction of a new algorithm, the Nested Deferred Acceptance (NDA) algorithm, which combines a one-to-one matching between agents and objects and a one-to-many matching between objects and institutions. If interrupters are eliminated from the preference list, as in Kesten (2010), the NDA algorithm produces an assignment which is fair, Pareto optimal among fair assignments and strategy-proof for agents. |
| Keywords: | matching, institutions, deferred acceptance algorithm, social housing |
| JEL: | C78 D47 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2017-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Tsyganov, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pavlova, Nataliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The institutional design of the competition authority is an important element of a successful state competition policy. At the same time, there is no doubt that "one size does not fit everyone", and the optimal choice between different structural alternatives will depend on the specific features of the economy and the institutional environment of a particular country. In the case of the multifunctionality of the antimonopoly body, specific benefits and risks appear that need to be taken into account when reforming the structure of the state apparatus. The article describes the main factors that can influence the choice of a design variant of a multi-functional antimonopoly body, and also analyzes the experience of the latest changes in the structure of the powers of the OECD antitrust authorities. Based on the analysis, several recommendations are proposed in the light of recent changes in the functions of the Federal Antimonopoly Service. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031704&r=dcm |
| By: | Hentze, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Der Staat beansprucht einen stetig wachsenden Anteil der Wirtschaftskraft für sich. Während der Anteil der Steuereinnahmen am Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach der Kassenstatistik im Jahr 2016 bei 22,5 Prozent lag, waren es 2004 noch 3 Prozentpunkte weniger. Dabei steigt vor allem die Steuerquote der Bundesländer. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:382017&r=dcm |
| By: | Aleksandra Pieloch-Babiarz (University of Lodz, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Making decisions concerning the payout policy depends on many diversified neoclassical and behavioral determinants. Although these factors are well-described in the literature, there is still a research gap concerning the lack of a comprehensive impact model of payout policy determinants on the investment attractiveness of shares. The aim of this paper is to present the diverse nature of relationships between different forms of cash transfer to the shareholders and investments attractiveness of public companies in the context of determinants of payout policy. The possibility to achieve this objective was conditioned by empirical verification of research hypothesis stating that the diversify of payout forms is accompanied by the different determinants of payout policy which condition an effective investment of stock investors capital. The empirical research was conducted on the electromechanical companies which were listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in years 2006-2015. The data for analysis were mainly collected from database Notoria Service SA and Stock Exchange Yearbooks. The calculations were carried out using the methodology of taxonomic measure of investment attractiveness, as well as dividend premium and share repurchase premium. The final conclusion of our research is that the companies conducting the payout policy in different forms of cash transfer differ in terms of many characteristics, such as: financial standing, market value, ownership structure, company’s size and age. Moreover, their investment attractiveness differs according to regularity of payment, stock exchange situation and shareholders preferences. The value added of this paper is a new approach to the evaluation of capital investment with a special emphasis on the determinants of payout policy. |
| Keywords: | determinants of payout policy; investment attractiveness; dividend; share repurchase |
| JEL: | G02 G10 G35 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no91&r=dcm |
| By: | Edward Oughton (Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a compendium of the key issues currently facing digital communications and reviews their relevance for the UK's National Infrastructure Assessment of digital infrastructure. The methodology focuses on taking a horizon scanning approach to obtaining current information from a range of authoritative decision-makers across industry, government and academia. After structuring the issues identified, these areas were examined in detail by a multi-disciplinary research team covering engineering, economics and computer science. The key finding shows that future demand uncertainty is the major issue affecting the digital communications sector and holding back increased investment. Moreover, this uncertainty is being driven primarily by the relatively rigid willingness to pay of end-users, the shift from fixed to wireless forms of access, and the ongoing convergence in digital applications and services. The key contribution of this paper is not just to illustrate the issues and trends within the digital communications sector, but also to identify the need for more research to understand how the sensitivity of future demand affects infrastructure performance and cost under different demographic, economic and technical scenarios. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jbs:wpaper:201702&r=dcm |
| By: | Buquet Corleto, Ana Gabriela; Moreno, Hortensia |
| Abstract: | La educación técnico-profesional viene experimentado transformaciones sustantivas en la región, aunque con diferentes ritmos y grados de concreción en cada país. En las últimas décadas a la par que se asiste a una incorporación masiva de las mujeres al mercado de trabajo, se registra una tendencia creciente de la elección de carreras técnicas y, en consecuencia, un aumento de la matrícula en el nivel de formación media y superior. No obstante sus niveles de capacitación y habilidades, las mujeres siguen en desventaja de cara al acceso al trabajo, a las condiciones laborales y a las brechas salariales, sobre todo en aquellas áreas que aún preservan una identidad particularmente masculina. En este contexto, el estudio indaga sobre las coordenadas históricas y actuales de la educación técnica o tecnológica en México y su vinculación con el sector productivo. Desde un enfoque cualitativo, se analizan las trayectorias de mujeres egresadas de la educación técnica o tecnológica de diferentes generaciones, perfiles profesionales y situaciones laborales, poniendo de relieve los desafíos por delante, las barreras y estereotipos culturales que obstaculizan sus logros, las oportunidades que han generado en estos tránsitos, y los impactos en sus autonomías. A través del conocimiento producido sobre la situación de estas mujeres se espera contribuir al diseño de políticas públicas que coadyuven al acceso, permanencia y movilidad de las mujeres, tanto en la educación técnica como en el ámbito laboral, en condiciones de mayor igualdad. |
| Keywords: | MUJERES, ENSEÑANZA TECNICA, ENSEÑANZA PROFESIONAL, EDUCACION DE LA MUJER, IGUALDAD DE GENERO, EMPLEO DE LA MUJER, DATOS ESTADISTICOS, WOMEN, TECHNICAL EDUCATION, VOCATIONAL EDUCATION, WOMEN'S EDUCATION, GENDER EQUALITY, WOMEN'S EMPLOYMENT, STATISTICAL DATA |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col040:41567&r=dcm |
| By: | Agnieszka Piekutowska (Uniwersytet w Bialymstoku, Poland); Monika Fiedorczuk (Uniwersytet w Bialymstoku, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Szereg zmian w kierunku wiekszej otwartosci na naplyw obcokrajowej sily roboczej podjetych w ostatnich latach w Federacji Rosyjskiej sklania do analiz imigracji do tego kraju. Przyjete rozwiazania w sferze polityki migracyjnej nie pozostaja bowiem bez wplywu na inne regiony docelowe (np. UE). Liberalizacja w zakresie dostepu migrantow do rosyjskiego rynku pracy wpisuje sie bowiem w szerszy problem: konkurencji (w skali miedzynarodowej) o naplyw zagranicznej sily roboczej. W tym kontekscie, warte zbadania jest jak kryzys, ktory dotknal gospodarke rosyjska, wplynal na ksztaltowanie sie skali imigracji do Rosji z glownych panstw wysylajacych, tj. z krajow Wspolnoty Niepodleglych Panstw (WNP). Celem artykulu jest ukazanie wplywu kryzysu, jaki dotknal gospodarke rosyjska w ostatnich latach na skale imigracji z panstw WNP do Rosji. Glowna hipoteza przyjmuje nastepujace brzmienie: czynnikiem wyjasniajacym imigracje z panstw WNP do Rosji jest zroznicowanie poziomu dobrobytu mierzonego PKB per capita (PPP) pomiedzy panstwem wysylajacym a panstwem docelowym. Zalozenie ukazania wplywu kryzysu gospodarczego w Rosji na imigracje do tego kraju implikuje zastosowanie analizy korelacji i analizy regresji. Jak zostanie wykazane, pomimo spadku PKB w Rosji imigracja do Rosji z panstw WNP nie spada. Jest to zatem zaleznosc odmienna od zalozen ekonomii neoklasycznej, zgodnie z ktora zmniejszenie zroznicowania w poziomie dobrobytu miedzy panstwem wysylajacym a docelowym powoduje zmniejszenie skali migracji miedzynarodowych. Jak zostanie wyjasnione, nie we wszystkich panstwach WNP skala migracji do Rosji moze byc wyjasniona zroznicowaniem poziomu PKB per capita, a glownego znaczenia w ksztaltowaniu skali migracji do Rosji nabieraja m. in. czynniki polityczne, konflikty czy procesy naturalizacji. |
| Keywords: | kryzys; gospodarka rosyjska; migracje; pañstwa WNP |
| JEL: | H12 F22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no90&r=dcm |
| By: | Agnieszka Matuszewska-Pierzynka (University of Lodz Poland) |
| Abstract: | Empirical research on the influence of the degree of ownership concentration in the employee–owned companies on their sales revenues thematically fits into the issue of efficiency of the direct privatisation method, in particular giving a state–owned enterprise for use against payment. The main goal of this article is to verify the research hypothesis stating that in employee–owned companies an increase in the degree of ownership concentration leads to an increase in sales revenues. In conducted empirical studies parameters of a Cobb–Douglas production function were estimated by Ordinary Least Squares method for two variants, differing in the way of measuring the degree of ownership concentration. The research hypothesis formulated in this paper was verified negatively as the increase in the degree of ownership concentration in employee–owned companies caused the decrease in their sales revenues. |
| Keywords: | privatisation process; direct privatisation; employee–owned company; productivity; ownership structure |
| JEL: | D24 G32 L33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no73&r=dcm |
| By: | Boly, Amadou; Gillanders, Robert |
| Abstract: | Experimental studies have shown that deterrence (monitoring and punishment) can be an effective anti-corruption policy. Even when they themselves stand to lose, policymakers may enact deterrence policies with real teeth ... However, policymakers' legitimacy is crucial: a given deterrence policy is more effective when chosen by an honest policymaker as opposed to a corrupt one. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:pegnpb:92017&r=dcm |
| By: | Dorota Milek (Politechnika Œwietokrzyska, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Wieloaspektowosc pojecia rozwoju regionalnego wynika bezposrednio z wielosci czynnikow go ksztaltujacych. Wspolczesnie podkresla sie znaczenie czynnikow endogenicznych, ktore wskazuja na specyfike i wyroznianie sie terytorium. Mobilizowanie potencjalu endogenicznego zapewnia trwala dynamike rozwoju regionalnego. Aktualnie jednym z podstawowych problemow wspolczesnej gospodarki jest wzrastajacy poziom zroznicowania rozwoju poszczegolnych regionow. Celem artykulu jest ocena zroznicowania poziomu rozwoju spoleczno-gospodarczego w polskich regionach w latach 2010 i 2015, wyodrebnienie rankingu jednostek wedlug poziomu rozwoju oraz wskazanie grup wojewodztw o zblizonym poziomie rozwoju. Przyjete do badañ wskazniki zostaly usystematyzowane wedlug nastepujacych obszarow: Demografia i rynek pracy, Przedsiebiorczosc regionalna, Struktura gospodarki regionalnej, Dzialalnosc innowacyjna i badawczo-rozwojowa, Infrastruktura techniczna i spoleczna oraz Stan i ochrona srodowiska naturalnego. Do oceny poziomu rozwoju spol.-gosp. regionow w Polsce zastosowano metode wzorca rozwoju Z. Hellwiga, ktora umozliwila porzadkowanie wojewodztw ze wzgledu na poziom ich rozwoju. Uzupelnienie stanowi metoda grupowania Warda, ktora pozwolila na wyodrebnienie podobnych wojewodztw pod wzgledem analizowanego zjawiska. Przeprowadzona analiza pozwolila na zidentyfikowanie zmian w procesach rozwoju spol.-gosp. polskich regionow. Wyodrebniono grupy wojewodztw o najwyzszym, wysokim, niskim i najnizszym poziomie rozwoju. |
| Keywords: | region, rozwoj regionalny, zroznicowania regionalne, metoda Hellwiga, metoda Warda |
| JEL: | B16 O11 O18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no81&r=dcm |
| By: | Ali Ozdagli; Michael Weber |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy shocks have a large impact on stock returns in narrow windows around press releases by the Federal Reserve. We use spatial autoregressions to decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct effect and an indirect (network) effect. We attribute 50%-85% of the overall effect to indirect effects. The decomposition is a robust feature of the data and we confirm large indirect effects in realized cash-flow fundamentals. A simple model with intermediate inputs guides our empirical strategy. Our findings indicate that production networks might be an important propagation mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy. |
| JEL: | E12 E31 E44 E52 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23424&r=dcm |
| By: | Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Bortoluzzo, Mauricio Mesquita |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the determinants of capital structure with a focus on both publicly-owned and privately-owned firms. We use annual financial statement data for over 1,000 publicly-owned and privately-owned Brazilian firms covering the 2012-2015 period. This enables us to use financial statements under the prevailing IFRS regime. The methodology takes into account the interdependency between debt and dividend policies, recognized in the literature on determinants of both capital structure and dividend policies. We also take into account that both debt and dividend policies can be used to mitigate agency problems, and that the presence of agency problems may in turn affect the choice of capital structure and dividend policy in a firm. As a proxy for the agency cost of equity, the firm’s inverted asset turnover ratio is used. Our empirical strategy treats debt and dividend policies and agency cost as dependent variables and leads to the use of a system of three equations, which are estimated with the generalized method of moments (GMM). In particular, we find that both payout and previous debt levels are positive and significant determinants of debt levels, but that there are differences in how important they are for privately-owned firms, on one hand, and publicly-owned firms, on the other. Also, some usual determinants of capital structure are significant for one group: for privately-owned firms (cash flow), for publicly-owned firms (intangibility), but not for the other, pointing out the importance of analyzing such firms separately. |
| Date: | 2017–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:451&r=dcm |
| By: | Agnieszka Hajduk (Gdynia Maritime University) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Sektor, w ktorym funkcjonuje podmiot gospodarczy, nalezy do istotnych czynnikow majacych wplyw na jego strukture kapitalu. Przedmiot dzialalnosci przedsiebiorstwa oddzialywuje nie tylko na proporcje kapitalow wlasnych i obcych w jego finansowaniu, ale wplywa rowniez znaczaco na strukture zobowiazan. Odmienny w poszczegolnych branzach udzial aktywow trwalych i obrotowych w majatku ogolem, a takze wewnetrzne zroznicowanie w poszczegolnych grupach majatkowych, powoduje, ze struktury kapitalowe tych przedsiebiorstw beda sie roznily. Czesto przedsiebiorcy opieraja decyzje na wyborach innych podmiotow ze swojego sektora, kierujac sie na przyklad srednim poziomem zadluzenia swojej branzy. Purpose of the article: Zasadniczym celem artykulu jest proba odpowiedzi na pytanie: Czy sektor, w ktorym funkcjonuje przedsiebiorstwo oddzialywuje na jego strukture kapitalu? Aby osiagnac postawiony cel, przeprowadzono analize struktury kapitalowej spolek warszawskiej gieldy oraz zastosowano testy statystyczne. Methodology/methods: Badania empiryczne przeprowadzono na grupie 385 spolek akcyjnych notowanych na Gieldzie Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A. Analizy dokonano na dwoch plaszczyznach: na poziomie makrosektorow gieldy (makrosektora Przemysl oraz makrosektora Handel i Uslugi) a takze na poziomie sektorow (Budownictwo, Handel Detaliczny, Informatyka). W badaniach wykorzystano metody analizy finansowej oraz metody analizy statystycznej: test U Manna-Whitneya oraz test H Kruskala-Wallisa. Analize przeprowadzono na poziomie zagregowanym, tj. dla usrednionych wartosci wskaznika struktury kapitalu badanych spolek w latach 2005-2010. Findings: Analiza jednowymiarowa struktury kapitalu w poszczegolnych latach okresu 2005-2010 wykazala, ze pomiedzy spolkami makrosektorow Przemysl oraz Handel i Uslugi istnieja roznice wartosci wskaznika struktury kapitalu. Podobne konstatacje odnotowano na poziomie sektorow. Testy statystyczne potwierdzily, ze przecietny poziom wskaznika struktury kapitalowej byl rozny dla spolek makrosektorow Przemysl, Handel i Uslugi oraz dla sektorow Informatyka i Budownictwo. |
| Keywords: | capital structure; activity sector; joint-stock companies |
| JEL: | G10 G32 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no34&r=dcm |
| By: | Fabio Clementi (University of Macerata); Francesco Schettino (University of Campania "L. Vanvitelli"); Enzo Valentini (University of Macerata) |
| Abstract: | Obiettivo principale di questo articolo è quello di fornire degli elementi che possano descrivere, in ambito italiano e su base regionale, l'evoluzione della relazione tra disuguaglianza e povertà da un lato e criminalità dall'altro. Facendo leva su una cospicua disponibilità di dati sul reddito delle famiglie italiane (fonte Banca d'Italia) e sui crimini commessi e denunciati (fonte ISTAT), i risultati individuati sono riassumibili nel fatto che tutte le variabili relative al crimine presentano, specialmente per le regioni del Sud e le isole maggiori, una correlazione positiva con gli squilibri distributivi del reddito (disuguaglianza e polarizzazione). In tali casi, l'incidenza dei reati relativi al patrimonio è maggiore al Nord, mentre i reati associativi hanno un livello di importanza superiore al Sud e nelle isole dove la presenza delle principali organizzazioni criminali calamita il fenomeno. La povertà , invece, risulta direttamente correlata ai reati associativi, a testimonianza del fatto che il preoccupante peggioramento dello status economico e sociale delle famiglie del Sud può determinare un pericoloso avvitamento con potenzialità di cristallizzazione nel medio-lungo periodo. Infine, i risultati documentano un significativo (e allarmante) rapporto tra il tasso di disoccupazione giovanile e la criminalità minorile. |
| Keywords: | Criminalità ,Polarizzazione,Disoccupazione giovanile,Povertà ,Disuguaglianza,Italia |
| JEL: | O1 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcr:wpaper:wpaper00048&r=dcm |
| By: | Alexander Grous |
| Abstract: | This paper presents research undertaken in Bizkaia in the Basque region that ‘peels the organisational layers’ to assess the management practices of 10 firms. These firms are drawn from the automotive, energy and aerospace clusters that have achieved international recognition, positioning Bizkaia as a prominent region for innovation and production. Firms were assessed using leading methodology developed by the LSE with McKinsey and Co that quantifies management practices and provides a comparison with comparable firms globally... |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:78695&r=dcm |
| By: | Benndorf, Volker; Moellers, Claudia; Normann, Hans-Theo |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether subjects with extensive laboratory experience and first-time participants, who voluntarily registered for the experiment, differ in their behavior. Subjects play four one-shot, two-player games: a trust game, a beauty contest, an ultimatum game, a travelers' dilemma and, in addition, we conduct a singleplayer lying task and elicit risk preferences. We find few significant differences. In the trust game, experienced subjects are less trustworthy and they also trust less. Furthermore, experienced subjects submit fewer non-monotonic strategies in the risk elicitation task. We find no differences whatsoever in the other decisions. Nevertheless, the minor differences observed between experienced and inexperienced subjects may be relevant because we document a potential recruitment bias: the share of inexperienced subjects may be lower in the early recruitment waves. |
| Keywords: | dilemma,experienced subjects,laboratory methods,trust game |
| JEL: | C90 C70 C72 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:251&r=dcm |
| By: | Artur Sajnog (University of Lodz, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: In the economic literature there are many arguments presented by critical supporters and opponents of measuring and reporting comprehensive income. There is a justified need to examine the relevance and usefulness of comprehensive income, especially the predictive power of comprehensive income for forecasting future earnings. It may be assumed that the comprehensive income has a better predictive power for future bank performance than net income, because this measure includes many elements, presented in the statement of changes in equity. Purpose of the article: The major subject in this paper is the evaluation of the usefulness of comprehensive income for predicting banks’ future earnings. Realization of the fundamental objective of this paper was centered around the main research hypothesis, stating that in economic practice of banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange it can be assumed that there is a positive predictive power of financial result in forecasting financial standing of these entities. Methodology/methods: The research comprised bank joint-stock companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (qualified on 15.09.2016). Empirical data for the study was obtained from the quarterly financial statements (the period from 2009 to 2015) from EMIS. The research method was the regression analysis conducted by means of Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and by two regression models in two versions. Findings & Value added: The research showed that the analyzed bank companies were characterized by a diversity usefulness of comprehensive income for predicting banks’ future earnings. Nevertheless, it must be stressed that the calculated Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients confirm in most instances a positive character of dependence between the comprehensive income and future return ratios. The results of the estimation of econometric models shows the positive association of comprehensive income with future profitability of banks. |
| Keywords: | comprehensive income; net income; financial reporting; predictive power; banks |
| JEL: | G21 M41 M48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no105&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz L. Nawrocki (Silesian University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Od czasu tzw. bañki internetowej, ktora miala miejsce na przelomie XX i XXI wieku, na globalnym rynku kapitalowym, w tym rowniez w Polsce, odnotowac mozna rosnace zainteresowanie spolkami stawiajacymi na innowacje i innowacyjnosc. Glownym motorem tego zainteresowania jest przekonanie, ze w dluzszym terminie innowacje oraz wydatki na badania i rozwoj przekladaja sie na wzrost przewagi konkurencyjnej, wynikow finansowych, a w dalszej kolejnosci takze wartosci rynkowej przedsiebiorstw. Podchodzac racjonalnie do kwestii inwestycyjnych nalezy jednakze zwrocic uwage na fakt, ze dzialalnosc innowacyjna ma rowniez druga, ciemniejsza, strone, ktora utozsamiana jest z daleko idaca niepewnoscia co do jej finalnych efektow i mozliwoscia poniesienia strat w wymiarze finansowym. Jednoczesnie, abstrahujac od powyzszych kwestii, nalezy zauwazyc, ze realizacja strategii inwestycji w akcje spolek innowacyjnych jest dosc klopotliwa z uwagi na brak jednolitej metodologii oceny innowacyjnosci podmiotow oraz duze zroznicowanie informacyjne w tym zakresie. Ocena efektywnosci inwestycyjnej notowanych na polskim rynku kapitalowym spolek postrzeganych jako innowacyjne z jednoczesnym zwroceniem uwagi na rozne przypadki rozwoju sytuacji w czasie w odniesieniu do rozpatrywanych podmiotow. Ocene efektywnosci inwestycyjnej przeprowadzono w ukladzie ryzyko-dochod z wykorzystaniem takich miar jak narastajaca skladana stopa zwrotu, srednia arytmetyczna stopa zwrotu, odchylenie i semiodchylenie standardowe oraz wspolczynnik zmiennosci i semizmiennosci stopy zwrotu. Otrzymane wyniki wskazuja, ze efektywnosc inwestycji w akcje spolek innowacyjnych czesto jest wyzsza w krotszym horyzoncie czasowym by wraz z jego wydluzaniem spadac w zwiazku z negatywna weryfikacja oczekiwañ inwestorow co do tempa rozwoju i wynikow finansowych spolek. |
| Keywords: | innowacyjnosc, przedsiebiorstwo innowacyjne, ryzyko innowacji, strategie inwestycyjne, analiza efektywnosci inwestycji |
| JEL: | G11 M13 O16 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no83&r=dcm |
| By: | Blazej Mazur (Cracow University of Economics, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Current approaches used in empirical macroeconomic analyses use the probabilistic setup and focus on evaluation of uncertainties and risks, also with respect to future business cycle fluctuations. Therefore, forecast-based business conditions indicators should be constructed using not just point forecasts, but rather density forecasts. The latter represent whole predictive distribution and provide relevant description of forecast uncertainty.We discuss a problem of model-based probabilistic inference on business cycle conditions in Poland. In particular we consider a model choice problem for density forecasts of Polish monthly industrial production index and its selected sub-indices. Based on the results we develop indicators of future economic conditions constructed using probabilistic information on future values of the index. In order to develop a relevant model class we make use of univariate Dynamic Conditional Score models with Bayesian inference methods. We assume that the conditional distribution is of the generalized t form in order to allow for heavy tails. Another group of models under consideration relies on the idea of business cycle modelling using the Flexible Fourier Form. We compare performance of alternative models based on ex-post evaluation of density forecasting accuracy using such criteria as Log-Predictive Score (LPS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). The assessment of density forecasting performance for Polish industrial production index turns out to be difficult since it depends on the choice of verification window. The pre-2013 data supports the deterministic cycle model whereas more recent observations can be explained by a very simple mean-reverting Gaussian AR(4) process. This provides an indirect evidence indicating the change of pattern of Polish business cycle fluctuations after 2013. A probabilistic indicator of business conditions is also sensitive to details of its construction. The results suggest application of forecast pooling strategies as a goal for further research. |
| Keywords: | density forecasts; Bayesian inference; business cycle; Dynamic Conditional Score models; Generalized t distribution. |
| JEL: | E37 C53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no75&r=dcm |
| By: | Faro, Clovis de |
| Abstract: | Já conhecido séculos antes (cf. Vieira Sobrinho (2012)) da publicação da celebrada obra de Richard Price (1771), o sistema de amortização de dívidas por meio de prestações constantes, tem sido, universalmente, o mais popular. Sendo denominado, aqui no Brasil, de Tabela Price (TP), ou método francês, foi o inicialmente consagrado quando da instituição do Sistema Financeiro da Habitação (SFH), para fins de financiamentos habitacionais, em 1964. Ano este em que foi simultaneamente estabelecido o conceito de correção monetária. Todavia, no âmbito de nosso judiciário, visto ser fundamentado no que se denomina de regime de juros compostos, a Tabela Price tem sido objeto de frequentes questionamentos (cf. de Faro e Guerra (2009) e Nogueira (2013)). Com tais tipos de demandas dizendo respeito ao que, como em Houaiss (2001), é definido como anatocismo; ou seja, juros devidos a juros. Doutrinariamente, como recentemente sugerido por Puccini (2104), a questão poderia ser resolvida mediante a especificação de como deveriam ser interpretadas as parcelas de amortização (restituição do principal emprestado) e de juros que são contidas em cada prestação. Entretanto, conceitualmente, como observado em de Faro (2014b), há que haver conformidade com o que se denomina de princípio de consistência financeira. Isto é, a repartição entre amortização e juros não pode ser arbitrária. Anteriormente antecipada na dissertação de mestrado de Sandrini (2007), uma criativa solução radical para a controvérsia seria a de fracionar o contrato de financiamento em tantos subcontratos quando fosse o número de prestações. Com tal proposição, contemplando não somente a Tabela Price, mas também outros sistemas de amortização, alicerçando-se unicamente em singelas ilustrações numéricas. Mais recentemente, De-Losso, Giovannetti e Rangel (2013), dirigindo a atenção ao caso específico da Tabela Price, apresentaram uma análise mais abrangente, de cunho analítico, com fulcro no que denominaram de Sistema de Múltiplos Contratos (SMC). Ainda mais, como uma significativa contribuição original, evidenciaram que, no caso de financiadores que sejam pessoas jurídicas, o sistema de múltiplos contratos pode ensejar substanciais reduções nas taxas de juros hoje praticadas. Pois que propiciaria significativos ganhos fiscais. No presente artigo, iremos especializar a análise para o caso do chamado Sistema de Amortizações Constantes (SAC), que foi introduzido no SFH em 1971. Sistema este que, correntemente, compete com a Tabela Price para fins de contratos de financiamentos habitacionais. Fundamentando-se em uma abordagem de caráter analítico, será evidenciado que a adoção da sistemática de múltiplos contratos, também poderá ter como uma desejável consequência a redução das elevadas taxas de juros que costumam ser observadas em financiamentos habitacionais. Posto que também acarretariam ganhos fiscais. Subsidiariamente, dado que, mormente no SFH, existe a possibilidade de que financiamentos sejam contratados tanto de acordo com a TP como segundo o SAC, iremos também cotejar os respectivos ganhos fiscais advindos da implementação do SMC. |
| Date: | 2017–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:783&r=dcm |
| By: | Kiesel, F.; Kolaric, S. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the importance of distinguishing between watch-preceded and direct rating changes for the credit default swap (CDS) market by examining a total of 2991 rating change announcements, 1526 watchlist placement announcements, and 430 rating affirmations following watchlist placements. The results show that watch-preceded downgrades do not lead to significant CDS market reactions, while direct downgrades are associated with a significant increase in CDS spread levels. Likewise, we document that watchlist placements for downgrade lead to increases in firms’ CDS spreads. CDS markets do not react to rating upgrades but watchlist placements for upgrade result in an immediate decrease in CDS spreads. Rating affirmations following watchlist placements for downgrade lead to slight reductions in CDS spreads, while affirmations following watchlist placements for upgrade have no effect on CDS spreads. These findings demonstrate the importance for empirical research on the interaction between credit markets and rating announcements to differentiate between watch-preceded and direct rating changes, particularly for rating downgrades. |
| Date: | 2017–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:87386&r=dcm |
| By: | Juan Carlos Cuestas; Merike Kukk |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the mutual dependence between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia, a country which experienced rapid debt accumulation during the 2000s and big swings in house prices during that period. We use Bayesian econometric methods on data spanning 2000–2015. The estimations show the interdependence between house prices and housing credit. More importantly, housing credit shocks had a stronger effect on house prices in the period of declining credit turnover. The asymmetry in the linkage between housing credit and house prices highlights important policy implications, in that if central banks increase capital buffers during good times, they can release credit conditions during hard times to alleviate the negative spillover into house prices and the real economy |
| Keywords: | house prices, housing credit, credit cycle, asymmetries, Bayesian |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E51 G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2017-2&r=dcm |
| By: | Ewa Rollnik-Sadowska (Bialystok University of Technology, Wiejska 45 A, 15-351 Bialystok Poland,); Edyta Dabrowska (Marshal's Office of Podlasie province, Poleska 89, 15-874 Bialystok, Poland); Britta Luedeke (Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Regionaldirektion Berlin-Brandenburg, Friedrichstr. 34, 10969 Berlin, Germany); Doris Wiethoelter (IAB Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In the era of demographic changes and need for rationalization of public expenditure, the European Union social policy promotes the activation approach. In addition, there can be noticed a growing importance of increasing the efficiency of public policies. The authors are presenting the main theoretical assumptions concerning efficiency as well as classification of methods for measuring of efficiency of labour market policies. Moreover, the EU countries are classified in clusters according to their level of expenditure on different categories of LMP. The paper is based on critical analysis of literature as well as analysis of secondary research findings. The cross-country labour market situation in the EU is based on the analysis of the Eurostat data by the k-means method. There is a need to work out a complex evaluation of labour market policies in the EU to provide comparative analysis of the EU countries (or groups of countries). It would allow determining the level of development of the country in terms of the efficiency of labour market policies.The EU countries with the best labour market situation represent diverse levels of LMP expenditure. |
| Keywords: | labour market policy, efficiency, LMP expenditure, clusters of the European Un-ion countries |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J11 J24 J88 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no101&r=dcm |
| By: | Cantillo, Miguel |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper analyzes and measures the value that American private banks added as directors of non financial companies. Using data between 1874 and 1913, and an event study from 1906, I find that bank directors added about 20% of a firm's market capitalization. Collusive practices encouraged by private banks accounted for 65% of this value, and were the equivalent of creating a three player market among railroads. About 35% of the value added by banks came from better governance. I argue that although policymakers were partly right in sidelining private banks as activist investors, this helped entrench managers. |
| Keywords: | Antitrust; Collusion; Corporate Governance; Financial History |
| JEL: | G21 G24 G34 K21 L41 N21 |
| Date: | 2016–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79354&r=dcm |
| By: | Citak, Yusuf Ensar; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to investigate the Granger-causal relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and inflation rates using Turkey as a case study. Revealing this relationship will give us a roadmap to cure fragile Turkish economy. Standard time-series approaches are used to investigate this relation. Our empirical findings tend to indicate that there is a long run relationship between these variables and that the CPI appears to be the variable leading exchange rate and oil prices. The results are plausible and have strong policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price, Exchange Rate, CPI, PPI, Turkey, cointegration, exogeneity, endogeneity |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79453&r=dcm |
| By: | Margaret Leighton (University of St Andrews); Jamin Speer (University of Memphis) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the definition and measurement of college major specificity and estimates its labor market return over a worker’s life cycle. After reviewing the variety of measures which have been used to measure specialization, we propose a new approach: a Theil measure based on the transferability of skills across occupations. We calculate and compare representative measures using data from the American Community Survey, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the Baccalaureate and Beyond. We then use these measures to estimate the return to specialized higher education. Our consistent finding is that the most "general" majors are the ones that pay off the most over time. While there is an initial earnings premium to majors with a tight connection to the labor market and to those classified as "vocational", this fades by age 30. Meanwhile, majors that teach versatile, transferable skills earn the most at every age. Employment returns are largely consistent with these earnings estimates. While vocational majors display a persistent employment premium over the life cycle, most other measures suggest that graduates from general majors work more hours, are more likely to be employed, and are more likely to be employed full time. Overall, major specificity explains 22% of the variation across majors in earnings and 28% of the variation in work hours. |
| Keywords: | human capital; general education; vocational education; higher education; specificity; specific human capital |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J31 I23 |
| Date: | 2017–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:wpecon:1709&r=dcm |
| By: | Bastourre, Diego; Zeolla, Nicolás |
| Abstract: | Desde la década de los noventa se ha evidenciado una veloz transformación en las finanzas internacionales que ha llevado a la globalización financiera a niveles sin precedentes. América Latina y el Caribe no han escapado a esta tendencia general. Estos procesos, lejos de generar los beneficios predichos por la teoría, derivaron de manera temprana en crisis de deuda, cambiarias y financieras. Luego de la crisis económica internacional de 2008/2009, tanto las prácticas hacia la liberalización de la cuenta capital como la teoría convencional sobre el tema tendieron a ser revisados. Impulsado por la experiencia de los países en desarrollo, surgió una revalorización de las medidas de administración de los flujos de capital, en la que nuestra región participó activamente. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, más allá de algunas rerregulaciones, el grado de administración de la cuenta de capital y financiera en América Latina y el Caribe se encuentra por debajo de las otras economías emergentes comparables. En este contexto, el presente estudio tiene varios objetivos. El primero es revisitar el estado de la literatura reciente sobre la integración financiera y la efectividad de la regulación de los flujos de capital. El segundo es presentar una serie de hechos estilizados sobre la regulación de los flujos de capital en América Latina y el Caribe en los últimos veinte años y ponerlos en el contexto de las tendencias globales hacia la mayor financiarización. El tercero, comprender cuáles fueron las motivaciones detrás de los cambios recientes en la regulación. |
| Keywords: | CAPITAL, POLITICA MONETARIA, MOVIMIENTOS DE CAPITAL, REGULACION ECONOMICA, CAPITAL, MONETARY POLICY, CAPITAL MOVEMENTS, ECONOMIC REGULATION |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col030:41410&r=dcm |
| By: | Marc Baudry; Clément Bonnet |
| Abstract: | Renewable energy technologies are called to play a crucial role in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since most of these technologies did not yet reach grid parity, public policies can rely on two types of approach to stimulate innovation: supply-push and demand-pull. The latter aims at creating demand for new technologies and at stimulating their diffusion. Nevertheless, due to the complex self-sustained dynamics of diffusion and to spillovers between the countries it is hard to determine whether newly installed capacities are imputable to national support policies and/or to policies implemented by neighbor countries. The paper addresses this problem. A micro-founded model of technology diffusion is developed and calibrated. It captures the influence of demand-pull policies on wind power installed capacities for six European countries over the last decade. A counter-factual analysis is carried out to assess the impact of demand-pull policies on wind power development by taking into account the interplay between national policies via spillovers. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, Technology diffusion, Demand pull instruments |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1705&r=dcm |
| By: | François Cohen; Antoine Dechezlepretre |
| Abstract: | In this paper the authors examine the heterogeneous impact of temperature shocks on mortality across income groups in Mexico using individual death records (1998–2010) and Census data. Random variation in temperatures is responsible for the death of around 45,000 people every year in Mexico, representing 8 per cent of deaths in the country. However, 88 per cent of weather-related deaths are induced by mildly cold days (of 10–20°C), while extremely hot days (over 32°C) kill a comparatively low number of people (less than 400 annually). Moreover, mildly cold temperatures only kill in the bottom half of the income distribution. The authors show that the Seguro Popular, a universal healthcare policy progressively rolled out during the sample period, reduced cold-related mortality among the poor by about 30 per cent. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp268&r=dcm |
| By: | Dobrolyubova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Klochkova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Samotsvetova, Alexandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The development of the personnel potential of the federal state civil service plays a key role in improving the quality of public administration. The material presents an analysis of the trends in the staffing of federal executive bodies and the payment of civil servants. The results of the analysis allow to estimate the influence of optimizing the number of the state civil service on the staffing of the implementation of state programs |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031705&r=dcm |
| By: | Jonas Wood; Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Karel Neels; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | It is expected that by the end of the 21 st century the vast majority of the human population will live in densely populated environments that are frequently characterized by low fertility. Belgium constitutes one of the few recently emerged cases, where a densely populated and highly developed country not only escapes from low fertility, but also exhibits positive associations between education and childbearing. It has been argued, that these patterns might be related to Belgium’s extensive policies supporting the reconciliation of family and career goals, and that especially highly educated people are benefiting from these policies. We look into these hypotheses by studying a unique micro-dataset covering all Belgian residents between 2002 and 2005. The main focus is on the relevance of between-municipality variation in economic conditions and social services for understanding variation in second birth risks by educational attainment. Our results suggest that the second birth risks of highly educated women are by far most sensitive to variation in local conditions. Controlling for ethnic composition effects and internal migration, we reveal that a considerable part of the local variation in the educational gradient in second births can be related to a positive link between fertility and economic conditions as well as social services for the highly educated. Low educated mothers, on the other hand, are found to be less likely to progress to a second child in more prosperous municipalities. This provides support for the view that institutional support for families might indeed be very relevant, and this particularly for the highly educated. |
| Keywords: | Belgium, child care, economic and social development, family policies, fertility determinants |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-014&r=dcm |
| By: | Ivankina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to the study of the problems of preservation, maintenance and development of the cultural heritage of the Russian Federation on the example of particularly valuable national objects and complexes, which are in fact national brands - the visiting card of Russia. Preservation of cultural heritage is one of the Necessary conditions for sustainable development of the Russian state, ensuring its integrity, diversity of socio-cultural space and national Security. |
| Keywords: | Preservation and protection of cultural heritage, a monument, Cultural landscape, places of interest, objects of outstanding universal value, legislative and regulatory framework, town-planning factor, alternative types of management of obects of cultural heritage |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041727&r=dcm |
| By: | Dmitrii Dubrov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This research examines the role of family social capital (FSC) in parental and adolescent subjective well-being. As the construct FSC is relatively new, the article presents data of validated methods for measuring it. 397 Russians were interviewed to identify whether FSC is a significant predictor of subjective well-being. The results indicate that it is a predictor of adolescent subjective well-being. For parents, this construct can be a predictor of their subjective well-being depending on their level of income |
| Keywords: | family social capital, subjective well-being, interpersonal relations, parents, adolescents |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:75psy2017&r=dcm |
| By: | David Arnold; Will Dobbie; Crystal S. Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new test for identifying racial bias in the context of bail decisions – a high-stakes setting with large disparities between white and black defendants. We motivate our analysis using Becker's (1957) model of racial bias, which predicts that rates of pre-trial misconduct will be identical for marginal white and marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially unbiased. In contrast, marginal white defendants will have a higher probability of misconduct than marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially biased against blacks. To test the model, we develop a new estimator that uses the release tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to identify the relevant race-specific misconduct rates. Estimates from Miami and Philadelphia show that bail judges are racially biased against black defendants, with substantially more racial bias among both inexperienced and part-time judges. We also find that both black and white judges are biased against black defendants. We argue that these results are consistent with bail judges making racially biased prediction errors, rather than being racially prejudiced per se. |
| JEL: | J15 J71 K14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23421&r=dcm |
| By: | Julio López Laborda; Carmen Marín; Jorge Onrubia |
| Abstract: | En el trabajo se estiman las consecuencias recaudatorias y distributivas de la supresión de los beneficios fiscales del IRPF vigentes en el período impositivo 2013. Se concluye que la supresión del conjunto de beneficios fiscales analizados supondría un incremento de recaudación de 24.457 millones de euros, y que el efecto redistributivo del IRPF, medido por el índice de Reynolds-Smolensky, se reduciría en un 1,1%. El trabajo también analiza diversos escenarios hipotéticos de devolución a los individuos del incremento de recaudación conseguido con la eliminación de los beneficios fiscales, y se cuantifica su impacto sobre la distribución de la renta. Las dos políticas de gasto simuladas –el reparto igual per cápita o en función de la edad de los descendientes en cada hogar fiscal- mejoran el efecto redistributivo del IRPF. En cuanto a la política de ingresos estudiada –la reducción de los tipos marginales del IRPF-, mantiene el efecto redistributivo del impuesto y reduce sus costes de eficiencia. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2017-13&r=dcm |
| By: | Voloshinskaya, Anna A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Komarov, Vladimir M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kotsyubinskiy, Vladimir A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | It is shown that the ideology and strategy of socio-economic development can be based on the paradigm of sustainable development. This implies an increase of the national wealth as stocks of capital (human, natural, physical, social, cultural and structural) in time. The paper proposes measures for Russia's transition to the paradigm of sustainable development. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021702&r=dcm |
| By: | Chokaev, Bekhan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The article discusses the prospects for the development of the financial system and the economy, associated with the emergence of Islamic finance industry in the country. The author briefly describes the distinguished features of Islamic finance, examines the main obstacles for functioning of Islamic financial institutions in the Russian legislation. Furthermore, there is an analysis of the economic benefits from the creation of economic infrastructure, which enables Islamic financial companies to operate in equal conditions with other subjects of the financial system in terms of financial, tax and administrative aspects. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031719&r=dcm |
| By: | Michela Altieri; Giovanna Nicodano |
| Abstract: | Our model highlights the impact of bankruptcy on (true and apparent) firm value. We show that the pricing of diversified firms suffers from a survivorship bias, due to their lower mortality relative to focused ones. This difference in mortality is able to turn a true diversification premium, deriving from saved bankruptcy costs, into an apparent diversification discount. Such apparent discount is larger the larger is the true premium due to coinsurance across diversified units. We show how this insight contributes to explain value paradoxes in diversified companies such as multi-unit groups, multi-segment conglomerates, and parent companies. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy costs, coinsurance, contagion, limited liability, diversification discount, survivorship bias, parent company discount, cost of debt |
| JEL: | G32 D23 K19 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:465&r=dcm |
| By: | Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Morgunov, Vyacheslav (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Trunin, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Study of features and specifics of formation of exchange rates in the developing countries within the floating regimes allow us to determine the objective backgrounds of monetary authorities' failure to support fixed exchange rate and the conditions requiring not only to manage the demand/supply on the internal currency market but to conduct foreign interventions too. As results of investigation show, de-facto the most of inflation targeting central banks of developing countries conduct operations of currency refinancing and realize operations on foreign currency market. The results indicate that the distinctive feature of exchange rate policy implemented by them is the absence of any objective in the level or change the trajectory of the exchange rate. Essential for understanding the permissible degree of participation of the monetary authorities, are targeted inflation rate formation in the process have the methodological aspects of the classification of de facto implemented exchange rate policy, which have been modified only in 2009. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031722&r=dcm |
| By: | Danzer, Natalia; Halla, Martin; Schneeweis, Nicole; Zweimüller, Martina |
| Abstract: | We provide a novel interpretation of the estimated treatment effects from evaluations of parental leave reforms. Accounting for the counterfactual mode of care is crucial in the analysis of child outcomes and potential mediators. We evaluate a large and generous parental leave extension in Austria exploiting a sharp birthday cutoff-based discontinuity in the eligibility for extended parental leave and geographical variation in formal childcare. We find that estimated treatment effects on long-term child outcomes differ substantially according to the availability of formal childcare and the mother's counterfactual work behavior. We show that extending parental leave has significant positive effects on children's health and human capital outcomes only if the reform induces a replacement of informal childcare with maternal care. We conclude that care provided by mothers (or formal institutions) is superior to informal care-arrangements. |
| Keywords: | child development; fertility.; formal childcare; informal childcare; maternal labor supply; parental leave |
| JEL: | H52 I38 J12 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12064&r=dcm |
| By: | Fu, Shihe; Guo, Mengmeng |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of over 0.3 million marathon runners in 37 cities and 55 races in China in 2014 and 2015, we estimate the air pollution elasticity of finish time to be 0.041. Our causal identification comes from the exogeneity of air pollution on the race day because runners are required to register a race a few months in advance and we control for city fixed effects, seasonal effects, and weather condition on the race day. Including individual fixed effects also provides consistent evidence. Our study contributes to the emerging literature on the effect of air pollution on short-run productivity, particularly on the performance of athletes engaging outdoor sports and other workers whose jobs require intensive physical activities. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution; marathon; outdoor behavior; mega events; short-run productivity |
| JEL: | I18 Q53 R11 Z10 |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79473&r=dcm |
| By: | Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Efremov, Alexey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In the present work, the practice of participation of Russian courts in identifying, recognizing and eliminating corruption-related factors in Russian regulatory legal acts, including their anti-corruption expertise, is analyzed. The possibilities of activating the participation of courts in reducing the corruption character of Russian legislation are considered. The proposals on legal and methodological support of the active participation of Russian courts in reducing the corruption character of Russian legislation have been developed. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041729&r=dcm |
| By: | Musegaas, Marieke (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | This thesis covers various research topics involving cooperative game theory, a mathematical tool to analyze the cooperative behavior within a group of players. The focus is mainly on interrelations between operations research and cooperative game theory by analyzing specific types of cooperative joint optimization problems induced by network structures. In particular, this thesis considers minimum coloring problems and one-machine sequencing situations together with its related games. Further, it studies the problem of computing the influence of a neuronal structure in a brain network. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:2506a423-e66e-4c61-9972-e873abfada30&r=dcm |
| By: | Oliver de Groot (University of St Andrews); Alexander W. Richter (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Nathaniel A. Throckmorton (College of William & Mary) |
| Abstract: | Basu and Bundick (2017) show a second moment intertemporal preference shock creates meaningful declines in output in a sticky price model with Epstein and Zin (1991) preferences. The result, however, rests on the way they model the shock. If a preference shock is included in Epstein-Zin preferences, the distributional weights on current and future utility must sum to 1, otherwise it creates an asymptote in the response to the shock with unit intertemporal elasticity of substitution. When we change the preferences so the weights sum to 1, the asymptote disappears as well as their main results—uncertainty shocks generate small increases in output and comovement with consumption and investment that is at odds with the data. We examine three changes to the model—recalibration, a risk-premium shock, and a disaster risk-type shock—to try and restore their results, but in all three cases the model is unable to match VAR evidence. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic Volatility, Epstein-Zin Preferences, Uncertainty, Economic Activity |
| JEL: | D81 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:cdmawp:1703&r=dcm |
| By: | Oliver de Groot (University of St Andrews); Alexander W. Richter (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Nathaniel A. Throckmorton (College of William & Mary) |
| Abstract: | Basu and Bundick (2017) show a second moment intertemporal preference shock creates meaningful declines in output in a sticky price model with Epstein and Zin (1991) preferences. The result, however, rests on the way they model the shock. If a preference shock is included in Epstein-Zin preferences, the distributional weights on current and future utility must sum to 1, otherwise it creates an asymptote in the response to the shock with unit intertemporal elasticity of substitution. When we change the preferences so the weights sum to 1, the asymptote disappears as well as their main results—uncertainty shocks generate small increases in output and comovement with consumption and investment that is at odds with the data. We examine three changes to the model—recalibration, a risk-premium shock, and a disaster risk-type shock—to try and restore their results, but in all three cases the model is unable to match VAR evidence. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic Volatility, Epstein-Zin Preferences, Uncertainty, Economic Activity |
| JEL: | D81 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:wpecon:1710&r=dcm |
| By: | Kiygi Calli, M.; Weverbergh, M.; Franses, Ph.H.B.F. |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the manpower planning and the performance of a national call center dealing with car repairs and on the road interventions. We model the impact of advertising on the capacity required. The starting point is a forecasting model for the incoming calls, where we take into account the impact of radio and TV commercials. An autoregressive-distributed lag model is used, which accounts for time-varying autoregressive effects. With our estimation results, we construct a forecasting tool based on a weekly media plan, and compare its forecasts with forecasts under baseline conditions without advertising. Next, the forecasts are fed into to the capacity planning simulation module. We simulate the process directly at the level of seconds. This simulation mimics the service level requirements and queue behavior (waiting times, abandoned calls and idle time). The simulations show that the call center is operating at a high level of efficiency and performance. At the same time, we show that advertising may lead to a temporary overload of the system, and this increases the amount of abandoned calls, which is suboptimal. |
| Keywords: | Call Center, Service Operations, Capacity Management, Discrete Event Simulation |
| Date: | 2017–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:99789&r=dcm |
| By: | Hunold, Matthias |
| Abstract: | Entry deterrence can occur when downstream incumbents hold non-controlling ownership shares of a supplier which is commited to charge uniform prices to all downstream firms. The ownership shares imply a rebate on the input price for the incumbents through the profit participation. Such backward ownership induces the supplier to accommodate entry by charging a low uniform price to all downstream firms in case of entry. However, just the entry-accommodating behavior reduces entry profits and thereby can lead to market foreclosure. Based on this theory, the article reviews a merger case in the financial services industry and draws conclusions for regulation and competition policy. |
| Keywords: | entry deterrence,foreclosure,minority shareholdings,non-controlling partial ownership,uniform pricing,vertical integration |
| JEL: | G34 L22 L40 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:250&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz Ingram (The University of Economics in Katowice, Poland); Grzegorz Glod (The University of Economics in Katowice, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Organizational resilience, understood as an ability to survive in harsh market conditions, captures increased research consideration in recent years. The same applies to family businesses that attracted significant attention lately. Although the interest in the topic grows, there are still remaining questions to be answered. In the paper we focus on identifying factors affecting organizational abilities to adapt to dynamic, hostile and complex environment especially when disruptive events occur in the environment. Literature studies in the topic allowed development of research proposition - organizational resilience should help to survive negative occurrences in the environment and family business should focus their attention on building resilience capacity while it may allow and facilitate longevity and well-being of an organization. We illustrate this proposition with the use of two family company cases from the Silesian Voivodeship. The first is a case of a large production company that existed between 2010 and 2013, and after receiving increased growth in 2005-2012 period it went bankrupt in 2014 after two large contracts. The second is a case of a developer company from the same region that started its operation in the same period and managed to develop both its market and products in years. We compare the data flowing from interviews with the owners (that are also managers of these companies) using Eisenhardt (1989) methodology and that leads to creation of propositions for future research. Research results indicate there are several factors influencing ability to cope with critical situations. Firstly, we identified that professionalization of management of family business leads to better chances to survive in the environment. Secondly, we conclude that awareness to weak signals diminishes the probability of risky behaviors and helps to survive in dynamic, hostile environment. |
| Keywords: | organizational resilience, family business, case study |
| JEL: | M20 H12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no39&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Kulyk (University of Zielona GoraFaculty of Economics and Management); Lukasz Augustowski (University of Zielona Gora); Anna Mroz (University of Zielona Gora) |
| Abstract: | This article presents issues of rational management of energy throughout the Lubuskie province. The starting point was the idea of permanently sustainable development. The authors focused on the problem of reducing emission of polluting gases in the context of sustainable development. The results obtained were collated with other provinces and a comparative analysis was made. The aim of the article is to evaluate the changes of emission of pollutants as well as the factor affecting emission and also to indicate the directions of its reduction. Such an approach is connected with both a long and short-term horizon, which follows from the necessity of securing clean air and “healthy atmosphere” at present as well as for future generations, taking into consideration , however , the economical, social and environmental context. In that sense, we are looking for an alternative which would secure permanent sustainability of development throughout the province. The paper analyzes different solutions to decrease the use of coal to achieve the aims of CO2 emission reduction throughout the Lubuskie province by means of an econometric model. The authors used a fixed effects model and selected statistical tests serving to evaluate and chose the right model. For evaluating the levels of penetration of different technologies considering their economical, technical and environmental characteristics, a probabilistic approach and historical data were used. Even though air pollution with gases has been dropping in the Lubuskie province since 2011, still the actions taken at the regional level are of great significance. The policy pursued by the region should include promotion of renewable sources of energy, spatial planning, or changes in the lifestyle. In the context of sustainable development, variables such as forestation, wages, number of plants, poverty threshold and population density have proven to be important. |
| Keywords: | spat Lubuskie province; CO2 reduction; sustainable development |
| JEL: | Q01 Q54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no5&r=dcm |
| By: | KASMAOUI, Kamal; BOURHABA, Othmane |
| Abstract: | The present study examines empirically the relationship between Happiness and public spending. We use a panel data from 2006 to 2015 for about 132 countries. We first estimated a Pooled, fixed effect and finally a GMM model to deal with the endogeneity problem. Our main findings suggest, first, that high levels of public expenditure are associated with greater Happiness around the world. Second, as expected, social support, Healthy life expectancy, Freedom to make life choices and confidence in national government contribute significantly to Happiness. |
| Keywords: | Happiness, Public choice, Government spending, GMM |
| JEL: | H11 H40 H50 I31 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79339&r=dcm |
| By: | Paulina Nowak (Politechnika Œwietokrzyska, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Jakosc zycia postrzegana jest jako stopieñ zaspokojenia przez ludzi potrzeb o roznorodnym charakterze, w tym szczegolnie materialnych, duchowych, bezpieczeñstwa i aspiracji zyciowych. Brane sa pod uwage aspekty ekonomiczne, przestrzenne, srodowiskowe, kulturowe. Jakosc zycia determinowana jest zatem rozmaitymi uwarunkowaniami, w ktorych zyje czlowiek, i ktorych zrodlem jest piramida potrzeb oraz system wartosci. Jednoczesnie jakosc zycia mozna ujmowac z punktu widzenia zbiorowosci (aspekt obiektywny) i ze wzgledu na indywidualna ocene jednostki (aspekt subiektywny). Celem artykulu jest diagnoza i ocena zroznicowañ poziomu jakosci zycia w polskich wojewodztwach w ujeciu obiektywnym poprzez konstrukcje syntetycznego miernika pozwalajacego oszacowac nierownosci w jakosci zycia spolecznosci regionalnych. Przyjeto, ze jakosc zycia charakteryzowac beda wskazniki pogrupowane w nastepujace obszary: materialne warunki zycia, aktywnosc ekonomiczna, zdrowie, edukacja i jakosc srodowiska zamieszkania. Do pomiaru jakosci zycia, jako glowna, zastosowano metode porzadkowania liniowego w oparciu o taksonomiczna miare Z. Hellwiga, ktora pozwala uporzadkowac wojewodztwa ze wzgledu na poziom jakosci zycia spolecznosci. Jako dodatkowa, wykorzystano analize skupieñ (aglomeracyjna metode grupowania Warda).Realizujac cel badawczy zwrocono szczegolna uwage na zlozonosc problematyki jakosci zycia i jej pomiaru na gruncie ekonomii oraz podkreslono dosc znaczace zroznicowania w wojewodztwach. Przeprowadzona analiza wskazala grupy regionow o najwyzszym, wysokim, niskim i najnizszym poziomie jakosci zycia. |
| Keywords: | jakosc zycia; miara dobrobytu; zroznicowania regionalne |
| JEL: | I31 R13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no85&r=dcm |
| By: | Ning Mao (Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok, Thailand); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; University of Sydney Business School, Australia; Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands; Complutense University of Madrid, Spain and Yokohama National Univ) |
| Abstract: | Under anti-globalization and isolationism, China is seeking to portray itself as a new leader for globalization under the banner of the Silk Road initiative. Meanwhile, China’s traditional and comparatively advantaged industry, silk, has faced dire predicaments and challenges for long time, and needs a transformation in terms of initiatives. Throughout history, the prosperity arising from silk was supposed to represent a microcosm of Chinese society. This paper searches the breakthrough point to improve the current dilemma of Chinese silk enterprises; uses a Case Study for inductive reasoning that is feasible for marketing strategies; and provides a strategy to help Chinese silk enterprises to transform their market positioning and operating modes to obtain better development opportunities. The paper also analyzes the new external environment based on the “One Belt, One Road” principle, which is of crucial importance for the implementation of new marketing strategies. |
| Keywords: | China; Silk; Company Strategy; National Strategy; Transformation; Chinese Trade |
| JEL: | O24 P33 Q27 |
| Date: | 2017–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170047&r=dcm |
| By: | Williams, John C. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | Presentation to the Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance, Singapore, Singapore , by John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May 29, 2017. |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfsp:177&r=dcm |
| By: | Nerina Vecchio; Nicholas Rohde |
| Keywords: | Emergency room visits, Healthcare access shortfalls, Propensity score matching |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gri:epaper:economics:201708&r=dcm |
| By: | Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Startsev, Yaroslav (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The study is devoted to situations of development of social phenomena, as potential objects of public administration. A diagnostic model and algorithm for diagnosing development situations has been created in the work, which makes it possible to identify the development potential, substantiate or disprove, and assess the possibility of state development management in this situation. The use of the methodology can be recommended for the development of strategic planning documents by state authorities and local self-government. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031724&r=dcm |
| By: | José A. Álvarez-Jareño (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Elena Badal-Valero (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain); José Manuel Pavía (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Benford’s Law is a well-known system use in accountancy for the analysis and detection of anomalies relating to money laundering and fraud. On that basis, and using real data from transactions undertaken by more than 600 companies from a particular sector, behavioral patterns can be analyzed using the latest machine learning procedures. The dataset is clearly unbalanced, for this reason we will apply cost matrix and SMOTE to different detecting patters methodologies: logistic regression, decision trees, neural networks and random forests. The objective of the cost matrix and SMOTE is to improve the forecasting capabilities of the models to easily identify those companies committing some kind of fraud. The results obtained show that the SMOTE algorithm gets better true positive results, outperforming the cost matrix implementation. However, the general accuracy of the model is very similar, so the amount of a false positive result will increase with SMOTE methodology. The aim is to detect the largest number of fraudulent companies, reducing, as far as possible, the number of false positives on companies operating correctly. The results obtained are quite revealing: Random forest gets better results with SMOTE transformation. It obtains 96.15% of true negative results and 94,98% of true positive results. Without any doubt, the listing ability of this methodology is very high. This study has been developed from the investigation of a real Spanish money laundering case in which this expert team have been collaborating. This study is the first step to use machine learning to detect financial crime in Spanish judicial process cases. |
| Keywords: | Benford’s Law, unbalance dataset, random forest, fraud, anti-money laundering. |
| JEL: | C14 C44 C53 M42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2017/07&r=dcm |
| By: | Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de; Gala, Paulo |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the Dutch disease can be more formally characterised as low economic complexity using ECI-type indicators; there is a solid and robust inverse relationship between exports concentrating on natural resources and economic complexity as measured by complexity indicators for a database of 122 countries from 1963 to 2013. In a large majority of cases, oil answers for shares in excess of 50% of exports. In addition to empirical panel analysis, we address case studies concerned with Indonesia and Nigeria and introduce a brief review of the theoretical literature on the topic. Indonesia is considered in the literature as a good example in avoiding the negative effects of the Dutch disease, whereas Nigeria is taken as a bad example in terms of institutions and policies adopted during the seventies and eighties. The empirical results show that complexity analysis and Big Data may offer significant contributions to the still-current debate surrounding the Dutch disease. |
| Date: | 2017–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:448&r=dcm |
| By: | Monika Banaszewska (Poznan University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Local public investments satisfy basic local communities’ needs and are crucial from the perspective of regional convergence. Against this background, investments by Polish local government pose as an interesting research subject. It is because, due to its size and dynamics, local public investments exert a considerably significant influence on the Polish economy. Self-government entities with primary responsibility for conducting local public investments in Poland are municipalities. The paper aims to identify fiscal, demographic and infrastructural determinants of municipal investment spending in Poland. I use panel data for 2412 Polish municipalities over the period 2007–2014. For institutional reasons, the sample excludes cities with county rights. The baseline specification employs two-way fixed-effects (FE) estimation that controls both for municipality and year fixed effects. To test for robustness, the sample is restricted to municipalities with up to 20,000; 10,000 and 5,000 inhabitants. For each considered sample there are four regression specifications implemented. Investment spending increases both in own revenues and grants. On the contrary, I document the negative impact of indebtedness level and the coverage of water supply and sewage systems. The coefficients on population size and the share of old inhabitants cease to be negative and statistically significant for municipalities with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. The results indicate that, apart from fiscal capacity, the investment policies of Polish municipalities are affected by economies of scale, local communities’ preferences and infrastructural endowment. The study also shows that incurring debt should be of particular concern for supervisory and control bodies. |
| Keywords: | investment activity; municipal government; fiscal federalism |
| JEL: | D78 H72 R53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no8&r=dcm |
| By: | Michael F. Lovenheim; Patrick Walsh |
| Abstract: | We examine whether changes in the local school choice environment affect the amount of information parents collect about local school quality, using data on over 100 million searches from greatschools.org. We link monthly data on search frequency in local “Search Units” to information on changes in open enrollment policies, tuition vouchers, charitable scholarship tax credits, tuition tax credits, local choice opportunities driven by No Child Left Behind sanctions and charter school penetration. Our results indicate that expansions in school choice rules and opportunities in a given area have large, positive effects on the frequency of searches done for schools in that area. These estimates suggest that the information parents have about local schools is endogenous to the choice environment they face, and that parental information depends not just on the availability of data, but also the incentive to seek and use it. |
| JEL: | H75 I20 I28 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23445&r=dcm |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | Les grands événements constituent un secteur dynamique et en expansion rapide qui présente des effets de synergie évidents avec le tourisme. Bien gérés et organisés, ils peuvent entraîner un développement de l’économie du tourisme, offrir un retentissement médiatique, promouvoir le développement régional, et stimuler la modernisation des infrastructures. Le présent rapport s’intéresse plus particulièrement aux événements de grande ampleur - ponctuels ou périodiques – capables d’attirer un grand nombre de participants ou de spectateurs nationaux ou internationaux, favorisant ainsi une évolution de la dynamique territoriale et le développement du tourisme. Ce rapport examine les approches suivies par un grand nombre de pays (grâce aux apports fournis par l’Afrique du Sud, l’Australie, le Canada, le Chili, le Danemark, l’Égypte, l’Espagne, l’Estonie, la France, l’Irlande, l’Islande, l’Italie, le Mexique, la Nouvelle-Zélande, la République tchèque, le Royaume-Uni, la Russie et la Turquie) afin de mieux comprendre les politiques et les pratiques adoptées en rapport avec les grands événements pour favoriser la croissance du secteur touristique. Une sélection des principaux enseignements a été établie pour les villes, les régions et les pays qui souhaitent tirer parti des caractéristiques propres aux grands événements pour favoriser le développement de l’économie du tourisme. |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaad:2017/2-fr&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Tatarczak (Maria Curie Sklodowska University, Lublin, Poland); Oleksandra Boichuk (Maria Curie Sklodowska University, Lublin, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The labour market situation is considered to be the most widely discussed part of economic development. However, it should be noted that the unemployment situation of young people (aged 15 -24 years) in Poland in general terms seems to be problematic. Overall, the unemployment rate among young people in Poland is significantly higher than the overall unemployment rate in the EU. Moreover, the situation varies greatly across the regions. Using multivariate techniques as a theoretical framework, the main goal of the paper is to identify groups of Polish regions that share similar patterns regarding unemployment among young people. The initial calculation is based on the concept of the taxonomic measure developed by Hellwig. The final method used to create clusters of objects (across 16 voivodeships of Poland) is cluster analysis. A segmentation of the voivodeships is observed for the years 2005 and 2014, based on selected indicators to determine the labour market situation. Through the exploration of the advantages of multivariate methods, the nature of youth unemployment is revealed in more precise detail. Indeed, dendrogram analysis divided the voivodeships into five groups, which are characterized by similar features associated with the labour market. It was found that the groups which emerged in 2005 have a different composition of regions than in 2014; this difference seems to be connected to the economic crisis. |
| Keywords: | labour market; unemployment; young people; cluster analysis |
| JEL: | C38 J42 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no130&r=dcm |
| By: | Violetta Skrodzka (Akademia Morska w Gdyni) |
| Abstract: | Jedna z form lokowania wolnych srodkow pienieznych przez osoby fizyczne sa nieruchomosci. Zainteresowanie wzbudzaja zarowno nieruchomosci lokalowe jak i gruntowe. Zakresem przedmiotowym przytaczanej tresci objeto nieruchomosci wystepujace w postaci gruntow rolnych. Do pierwszego maja 2016 r. kazda osoba fizyczna mogla stac sie wlascicielem gruntow rolnych. Swobodny zakup ziemi rolnej ograniczono restrykcyjnymi przepisami ustawy z 11 kwietnia 2003 r. o ksztaltowaniu ustroju rolnego (Dz.U. Z 2012 r. poz. 803 ze zm.) . Zmiana przepisow dotyczaca swobodnego obrotu nieruchomosciami rolnymi nie spowodowala tego, (chociaz ku temu zmierza), ze grunty rolne pozostaja jedynie w rekach rolnikow. Osoby fizyczne, ktore nabyly ziemie przed 1 majem 2016 r., a nie sa zwiazane z rolnictwem udostepniaja ja innym w drodze umowy najmu czy tez dzierzawy. Otrzymywany czynsz jest korzyscia majatkowa, ktora prawo podatkowe traktuje w szczegolny sposob. Pozytki osiagane w drodze dzierzawy przez osobe fizyczna niezwiazana z rolnictwem sa traktowane w swietle podatku dochodowego od osob fizycznych na preferencyjnych zasadach. Celem artykulu jest analiza opodatkowania dochodow uzyskiwanych przez osoby fizyczne z tytulu udostepniania nieruchomosci rolnych osobom trzecim. W opracowaniu zastosowano analize regulacji prawnych dotyczacych dzialalnosci rolniczej i podatku dochodowego od osob fizycznych. Dla okreslenia rozbieznosci w opodatkowaniu czynszu z dzierzawy nieruchomosci rolnej na cele rolnicze i nierolnicze posluzono sie analiza porownawcza i dedukcja. Wynagrodzenie otrzymywane z dzierzawy gospodarstwa rolnego lub jego skladnikow na cele rolnicze nie stanowi zrodla przychodow w rozumieniu podatku dochodowego od osob fizycznych. Przychody uzyskiwane z udostepniania osobom trzecim innych nieruchomosci lub gospodarstw rolnych na cele nierolnicze podlegaja opodatkowaniu podatkiem dochodowym od osob fizycznych. Tutaj otrzymywany czynsz stanowi zrodlo przychodow w podatku dochodowym od osob fizycznych i podlega zgloszeniu do wlasciwego urzedu skarbowego. |
| Keywords: | gospodarstwo rolne, dzialalnosc rolnicza, podatek dochodowy przy dzierzawie gruntow rolnych na cele rolnicze i nierolnicze |
| JEL: | K11 K12 K34 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no116&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Mazurkiewicz (University of Rzeszow, Poland) |
| Abstract: | W gospodarce opartej na wiedzy o konkurencyjnosci przedsiebiorstw w coraz wiekszym stopniu decyduje umiejetnosc korzystania z posiadanych zasobow. Szczegolna rola przypisywana jest zasobom o charakterze niematerialnym. Zasobem strategicznie waznym we wspolczesnym przedsiebiorstwie jest talent – pracownik utalentowany. Zasoby jednak nie sa cenne same w sobie, lecz maja znaczenie w aspekcie dzialañ ukierunkowanych na osiagniecie przewagi konkurencyjnej. Pozyskanie i zatrzymanie pracownikow utalentowanych, ze wzgledu na ich wybitnosc, staje sie jednym z najwiekszych wyzwañ w wielu przedsiebiorstwach. Uwzgledniajac specyficzne ich cechy, potrzeby i oczekiwania, zagadnieniem o charakterze kluczowym staje sie stworzenie mozliwosci realizacji kariery. Celem opracowania jest wykazanie znaczenia kariery jednostek utalentowanych dla przewagi konkurencyjnej wspolczesnego przedsiebiorstwa. Jego realizacja dokonana zostanie w wyniku przedstawienia talentu jako zrodla przewagi konkurencyjnej. Ukazane zostanie znaczenie wspolczesnych modeli kariery dla jednostek utalentowanych, jak rowniez z perspektywy przedsiebiorstwa. Artykul ma charakter teoretyczny. Przedmiotowe rozwazania przeprowadzone zostaly na podstawie analizy literatury przede wszystkim z zakresu nauk o zarzadzaniu: zarzadzania strategicznego oraz zarzadzania zasobami ludzkimi. Wazne uzupelnienie przeprowadzonych rozwazañ stanowily spostrzezenia sformulowane w literaturze z zakresu psychologii. Zastosowano metode rozumowania dedukcyjnego. Skonfrontowano nowe trendy w zarzadzaniu kariera pracownikow we wspolczesnych organizacjach z zalozeniami przyjmowanymi w zarzadzaniu talentami, uwzgledniajac kontekst strategiczny funkcjonowania przedsiebiorstwa. Kariera stanowi nadal srodek do realizacji zamierzeñ strategicznych organizacji, zwlaszcza w okresie trwajacej „wojny o talenty”. Tymczasowosc relacji zatrudnienia oraz duza mobilnosc pracownikow utalentowanych sprawiaja, ze w przypadku tej grupy pracownikow organizacje powinny dazyc do budowania relacji dlugoterminowych w wyniku zarzadzania ich kariera wewnatrz organizacji. Takie ksztaltowanie karier przyczyni sie do realizacji zamierzeñ strategicznych przedsiebiorstwa. |
| Keywords: | talent, zarzadzanie talentami, zarzadzanie kariera, wspolczesne modele karier, przewaga konkurencyjna |
| JEL: | M12 M51 M53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no76&r=dcm |
| By: | Petra Jílkova (Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic); Pavla Ko atkova Stranska (Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis started in the USA and extended to the European market in 2009 – 2010 and caused significant problems in the banking sector. Czech banks were not significantly affected and recorded a profit in many cases and there was no need for government intervention. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of the economic situation of the Czech Republic on the performance and profitability of the banking market through selected determinants. Constructing a linear regression model predicts the values of the dependent variable from the variability of the values of the independent variables. In particular, the final report focusses on measuring the performance and profitability of the banking sector using the method of “Multiple linear regression”. The basis for multiple linear regression model is to estimate the effect of each independent variable Xi to the dependent variable Y. The force of the impact, determine the regression coefficients betha, also determining which independent variables have the greatest and the smallest effect on the dispersion of the dependent variables. In other words, how much of the variance of the dependent variable is explained by selected independent variables. In addition, a literature review and analysis of secondary are based on data published on or before 1. February 2017. This paper clarifies the structure of the Czech banking sector and it is focused on the performance and profitability in the defined time period and how it compares with the selected banking sector and indicators in other countries. On account of data availability for all the years examined, only selected banks were included. |
| Keywords: | bank, financial sector, linear regression analyses, performance, profitability |
| JEL: | G21 M31 C38 O16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no41&r=dcm |
| By: | Mario Coccia |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to focus on similarity and/or heterogeneity of taxonomies of innovation present in the economic fields to show as the economic literature uses different names to indicate the same type of technical change and innovation, and the same name for different types of innovation. This ambiguity of classification makes it impossible to compare the various studies; moreover the numerous typologies existing in the economics of innovation, technometrics, economics of technical change, management of technology, etc., have hindered the development of knowledge in these fields. The research presents also new directions on the classification of innovation that try to overcome these problems. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.08955&r=dcm |
| By: | Muñoz García, Alberto; Hernández Banadik, Nicolás Jorge |
| Abstract: | In the last years the concept of data depth has been increasingly used in Statistics as a center-outward ordering of sample points in multivariate data sets. Recently data depth has been extended to functional data. In this paper we propose new intrinsic functional data depths based on the representation of functional data on Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces, and test its performance against a number of well known alternatives in the problem of functional outlier detection. |
| Keywords: | Outlier detection; Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces; Functional Data Analysis; Kernel depth |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:24615&r=dcm |
| By: | Rachel Shapiro; Robert G. Wood |
| Abstract: | This issue brief shares highlights from the implementation evaluation of an adolescent pregnancy prevention program funded by Kentucky’s Personal Responsibility Education Program (PREP) grant. The Reducing the Risk curriculum was designed to meet the needs of rural youth. |
| Keywords: | teen, pregnancy, prevention, PREP, evidence-based programs |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:93b8847a00bc42c5acc47c67f4282628&r=dcm |
| By: | Damian Kozbur |
| Abstract: | Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-dimensional sparse linear models. Probabilistic bounds for prediction error norm and number of selected covariates are proved. The analysis in this paper gives sharp rates and does not require β-min or irrepresentability conditions. |
| Keywords: | Forward regression, high-dimensional models, sparsity, model selection |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:253&r=dcm |
| By: | Rodríguez-Álvarez, Ana; Rosete-Rivero, Mayte |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this work is to study the effects that supply and demand factors have on waiting lists. With this aim, the authors discuss a model which explains the factors that can affect the production of healthcare, demand for healthcare, and finally, the inequalities between health supply and demand. This analysis proves that, due to imbalances between supply and demand, there is an excess of demand that is equal to the waiting lists. This demand excess is called the waiting list function. Hence, the second part of this paper develops an empirical analysis which estimates the function for the waiting lists of Spanish public hospitals for the period 1996 to 2009. As a result of the estimation, the supply and demand factors influencing waiting lists, as well as their evolution, are determined and studied. An imbalance between supply and demand reduces the supply and increases demand resulting in the amount traded by the market being less than potential demand. |
| Keywords: | hospital waiting lists,Spanish public healthcare,NHS,excess demand,demand and supply factors |
| JEL: | H4 I3 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201725&r=dcm |
| By: | Shastitko, Andrey E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Morosanova, Anastasia A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Meleshkina, Anna I. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This work reflects the main aspects that must be taken into account when developing and modifying policies for regulating the sphere of intellectual property. Piracy, despite all its obvious shortcomings, has a number of positive properties, which can be useful for the owners of the rights to RIA: informational, network and indirect effects. The paper presents a mathematical model, showing a case where the protection of RIA introduced in contrast to the actions of Pirates may cause more damage to public welfare than itself piracy. There is a need for a more flexible tool (than the system of intellectual property), which would make each owner of the IP able to choose required level of protection. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021704&r=dcm |
| By: | Andor, Mark; Parmeter, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Stochastic frontier analysis is a popular tool to assess firm performance. Almost universally it has been applied using maximum likelihood estimation. An alternative approach, pseudolikelihood estimation, decouples estimation of the error component structure and the production frontier, has been adopted in both the nonparametric and panel data settings. To date, no formal comparison has yet to be conducted comparing these methods in a standard, parametric cross sectional framework. We produce a comparison of these two competing methods using Monte Carlo simulations. Our results indicate that pseudolikelihood estimation enjoys almost identical performance to maximum likelihood estimation across a range of scenarios and performance metrics, and for certain metrics outperforms maximum likelihood estimation when the distribution of inefficiency is incorrectly specied. |
| Keywords: | stochastic frontier analysis,maximum likelihood,production function,Monte Carlo simulation |
| JEL: | C1 C5 D2 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:693&r=dcm |
| By: | Mariusz Zielinski (Opole University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The Central and Eastern European countries suffered from a decrease in professional activity and increases in unemployment, income inequality, and underemployment. In most of the countries in the region, it was decided to increase labour market flexibility, adopting a Western European model of labour market functioning. The effects of deregulation (flexibility increase) for the labour market depend to a great extent on the economic situation. The paper attempts to answer the question of the degree to which changes in the employment level and structure can be explained by changes in the economic situation. The article verified two hypotheses: “the employment level reacts to changes in the economic situation; however, this reaction in the Central and Eastern European countries is more severe than the average reaction in the European Union” (H1) and “changes in the economic situation decide to a greater extent the employment level in the groups experiencing discrimination (women, youngest and oldest people) more than for employees in general” (H2). The research encompassed 11 Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia) on the basis of statistical data published by Eurostat for the period of 2004 to 2015. Data analysis was performed using the correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination. In the majority of the examined countries, a statistically significant correlation occurs between changes in GDP and total employment level; furthermore, the influence of changes in GDP on the employment level is greater than the European Union’s average. The data do not indicate discrimination against certain groups (women, young people, people in pre-retirement age), changes in the employment levels of the aforementioned groups are less dependent on the economic situation than the changes in total employment. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, employment, discrimination on the labor market, Central and Eastern European countries, European Union |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J16 J21 J70 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no147&r=dcm |
| By: | Andrés Alegría,; Rodrigo Alfaro; Felipe Córdova |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how central bank communications can play a role in macroprudential supervision. We document how specific warnings about real estate markets, published in the Central Bank of Chile’s Financial Stability Reports of 2012, affected bank lending policies. We provide empirical evidence of a rebalancing in the characteristics of mortgage loans granted, with a reduction in the number of mortgage loans with high loan-to-value ratios (LTV), along with an increase in loans with lower LTV ratios. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:798&r=dcm |
| By: | L. Frigau; T. Medda; V. Pelligra |
| Abstract: | We replicate in the lab an artefactual field experiment originally run with a representative sample of the population. Our results show that, despite the many differences between university students and representative subjects from the whole population, the two samples closely follow a common behavioral pattern in a set of binary dictator games. The only exception seems to be represented by a significant difference in those situations where self-interest plays a prominent role. This gap is mainly related to the academic background of the participants - our sample of undergraduate economics students, in fact, differs in its degree of self-interested choices both from the representative group of the population and from its sub-sample of students from heterogeneous disciplines. |
| Keywords: | Prosocial Behavior;Methodology;External Validity;Experiments |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201704&r=dcm |
| By: | Edward Herbst; Frank Schorfheide |
| Abstract: | The accuracy of particle filters for nonlinear state-space models crucially depends on the proposal distribution that mutates time t-1 particle values into time t values. In the widely-used bootstrap particle filter, this distribution is generated by the state-transition equation. While straightforward to implement, the practical performance is often poor. We develop a self-tuning particle filter in which the proposal distribution is constructed adaptively through a sequence of Monte Carlo steps. Intuitively, we start from a measurement error distribution with an inflated variance, and then gradually reduce the variance to its nominal level in a sequence of tempering steps. We show that the filter generates an unbiased and consistent approximation of the likelihood function. Holding the run time fixed, our filter is substantially more accurate in two DSGE model applications than the bootstrap particle filter. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23448&r=dcm |
| By: | Rahma Daly (University of Evry Val d’Essonne (EPEE)); Marc-Arthur Diaye (University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, Sorbonne Center for Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses cross-sectional linked employer-employee data col- lected from the French Working Conditions Survey, to assess the po- tential positive or negative effect of performance appraisal interviews administered by firms on employees’ reported levels of psychosocial risk. A subjective measure of the psychosocial risks is used and in- dicates a perceived level of risk. In order to obtain a more objective evaluation, we compare the employees’ perceived level of psychosocial risk and the level of risk reported by firms. The results show that the reported levels of psychosocial risk decrease when employees receive performance evaluation reviews on a regular basis; reviews whose ef- fects vary depending on the type of psychosocial risk. |
| Keywords: | psychosocial risks, performance appraisal, aggregation methods, propensity score matching, endogenous switching regression |
| JEL: | C43 J28 M54 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:17-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Luis J. Álvarez (Banco de España); Ana Gómez-Loscos (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a survey of output gap modeling techniques, which are of special interest for policy making institutions. We distinguish between univariate -which estimate trend output on the basis of actual output, without taking into account the information contained in other variables–, and multivariate methods –which incorporate useful information on some other variables, based on economic theory. We present the main advantages and drawbacks of the different methods. |
| Keywords: | output gap, potential output, business cycle, trend output, survey |
| JEL: | E32 O4 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1720&r=dcm |
| By: | Morrison, Alan; Thanassoulis, John |
| Abstract: | We study a firm with ethical employees who can adopt a profitable working practice that may harm their customers. Their response to this dilemma reflects their compensation contract as well as their ethical willpower. We identify optimal compensation contracts under utilitarian and deontological (duty-based) ethical standards. With utilitarian employees, and irrespective of employee willpower, a profit maximising firm with sophisticated customers generates the ethically best outcome. Organizational culture emerges as an equilibrium phenomenon. If the firm is a partnership, if sales commissions are hidden, or if customers are naive the firm may use bonuses to create a culture of malpractice. |
| Keywords: | behavioural norms; bonuses; Culture; Ethics |
| JEL: | D03 G02 G20 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12060&r=dcm |
| By: | Holger Sieg; Yu Wang |
| Abstract: | We develop and estimate a dynamic model to study the impact of student debt on education, career, and marriage market choices of young female lawyers. Our model accounts for several important institutional features of the labor market for lawyers, including differences in the work hours across occupational tracks and learning about the prospects of promotion to partner. Some female students need to take on large amounts of student debt to finance their education and hence start their careers with large amounts of negative wealth. The empirical findings suggest that student debt has negative effects on marriage prospects, career prospects, and investments in educational quality of female lawyers. The analysis also provides new insights into the design of public policies that aim to increase public sector employment. We show that it is possible to design conditional wage or debt service subsidy programs that significantly increase public sector career choices at reasonable costs. |
| JEL: | J12 J24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23453&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Kulyk (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski, Poland); Anna Kowalewicz (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski, Poland); Aleksandra Nowomiejska (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Bio-economy regional level is essential for the socio-economic impact, especially in sparsely populated peripheral areas. The positive effects of bio-economy in the agro-food sector can be regarded as an increase in em-ployment and incomes and security of supply. The purpose of the article was to define and determine the potential of bio-economy in the polish Voivodships. In addition, it attempts to define the role of bio-economy in the agro-food sector, including the environmental aspects. The study covered the period 2005-2015. In order to assess the influence of macroeconomic factors on the development of sustainable agriculture the article used method of panel analysis with fixed effects. The data for the analysis was taken from the statistical data from the Local Data Bank (BDL), the Central Statistical Office and the Chief Inspectorate of Trade Quality of Agricultural and Food (GIJHARS). In order to increase the potential of the region it is necessary to recognize the im-portance of local knowledge as a stimulant of competitiveness of regional devel-opment, while taking into account the diversity and complexity of local systems. In order to improve opportunities for bio-economy and green growth it is necessary to better understand the role of natural capital and related changes.The integration of cross-sectoral dimensions of ecological, social-cultural and socio-economic development in the process of regional management is becoming important. In this context, there is a need for further study of the so-cio-economic conditions to determine the regional conditions providing a perma-nently sustainable development with the use of bio-economy in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | bio-economy, local development, economic and social determinants, the Lubuskie Voivodeship, sustainable agriculture |
| JEL: | O13 Q01 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no49&r=dcm |
| By: | Fang, Zheng (School of Business, SIM University, Singapore); Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the city-level cointegrating and Granger causal relationships between economic growth, electricity consumption and human capital during a period of 2003-2012 in China. Applying the Continuously-updated fully modified OLS panel estimation, we find that for China as a whole physical and human capital have similar positive impacts on local economic growth, which are slightly larger than the effect of electricity consumption. A 1% rise in either physical or human capital investment boosts economic growth by 0.07% and the output elasticity of electricity consumption is 0.06. Comparatively, electricity consumption plays a dominant role to boost economic growth in the Center, human capital contributes most to growth in the East, and growth in the West benefits most from physical capital investments. Using a Granger causality test that is suitable for heterogeneous panels, we find a uni-directional causal relationship running from economic growth to electricity consumption in central and western China and a feedback effect in eastern China. In terms of the causal relationship between electricity consumption and education expenditure, electricity Granger causes education expenditure in some eastern Chinese cities and a reverse relationship is observed for cities in Middle China, while for western cities a bi-directional causal link is found. Local policies should therefore vary and be coordinated across government agencies. |
| Keywords: | Electricity consumption, education expenditure, heterogeneous panel causality, Chinese cities |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-02&r=dcm |
| By: | François Bareille; Pierre Dupraz |
| Abstract: | Previous studies on the productive value of biodiversity emphasized that crop diversity increases crop yields. Here, we focus on the productivity of crop diversity and permanent grasslands for crops and milk. Using a GMM approach, we estimate detailed production functions using a sample of 3960 mixed farms from the FADN between 2002 and 2013. We highlight that permanent grasslands enhance crop production. We confirm that crop diversity increases crop and milk yields. Permanent grasslands and crop diversity are however substitute inputs. We also find that both of these biodiversity productive capacities influence variable input productivities. These results suggest the potential adaptations of farmers’ choices to environmental measures. |
| Keywords: | ecosystem services, agriculture, permanent grassland, crop diversity |
| JEL: | Q12 Q57 D22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rae:wpaper:17-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Gabrielli, Florencia; Lazzarini, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Existe una vasta literatura, teórica y empírica, que señala la relación positiva entre competitividad cambiaria y desarrollo productivo, fundamentalmente debido al impacto favorable de un tipo de cambio real “alto” en la rentabilidad de los sectores no tradicionales. Sin embargo, el nivel del tipo de cambio real no es el único factor que incide en la rentabilidad empresarial y, sobre todo, no lo hace con la misma intensidad en las distintas actividades económicas. A fin de indagar con mayor profundidad sobre el impacto diferenciado de variaciones en el tipo de cambio real en las distintas ramas de la actividad económica, en este trabajo se analiza el vínculo entre rentabilidad empresarial y competitividad cambiaria al interior de la industria manufacturera (IM) argentina. Para ello se examina el impacto de las variaciones en el tipo de cambio real sobre la rentabilidad de las distintas ramas de la IM, utilizando la base de datos de la Central de Balances del Banco Central de la República Argentina (CB-BCRA) que contiene información acerca de los balances de las personas jurídicas del sector privado no financiero para el período 2005-2010. |
| Keywords: | INDUSTRIA, PRODUCTOS MANUFACTURADOS, INGRESOS, GANANCIA, MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS, TIPOS DE CAMBIO, DATOS ESTADISTICOS, INDUSTRY, MANUFACTURES, INCOME, PROFIT, ECONOMETRIC MODELS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, STATISTICAL DATA |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:41587&r=dcm |
| By: | Mateusz Pipieñ (Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Cracow University of Economics); Sylwia Roszkowska (Department of Macroeconomics, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | For two groups of post-communist countries (CEE and CIS) we estimated the parameters of convergence equations on the basis of annual data. We depart from standard econometric theory, which involves panel regression techniques. We test cross-country heterogeneity of parameters within a system of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). We show empirical evidence in favour of the variability of parameters describing the convergence effect and productivity growth rates across countries. Our approach seems a convincing alternative to the panel regression approach where random effects can be estimated, imposing an assumption about the constancy of structural parameters within the group of countries under analysis. We discuss the role of the global financial crisis in the heterogeneity of convergence processes and productivity at the country level. The aforementioned SURE model was estimated based on two datasets, one containing observations prior to the crisis and the second containing the whole sample |
| Keywords: | convergence; labour productivity; economic growth; SURE |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:7/2017&r=dcm |
| By: | VU, Tien Manh |
| Abstract: | We examine the transition of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam from a wageperspective by decomposing the difference in wage distributions between SOE mployees and non-SOE employees during the period 2002–2014. In 2002, SOE employees enjoyed higher pay than non-SOE employees owing to characteristics difference and any factors other than either the price of skills or the characteristics difference, so-called residuals difference. University graduates were the main contributor to the endowments difference. However, we found that SOE pay schemes converged with those of non-SOEs by 2014, in terms of both the price of skills and residuals. |
| Keywords: | Wage, wage decomposition, wage distribution, state-owned enterprises, transition, Vietnam, Wage, wage decomposition, wage distribution, state-owned enterprises, transition, Vietnam, J30, J45, O15, P31 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000130&r=dcm |
| By: | Harro van Asselt (Stockholm Environment Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the implications of regionalism for the interaction between trade and climate policy. It examines the implications of regional climate governance for international trade and conversely the implications of regional trade governance for climate change action. Regional approaches to climate change governance are discussed with a specific focus on the rise of “climate clubs” and their implications for international trade. Moreover, regional trade agreements and their current environmental provisions related to climate change are also examined. Building on these analyses, this report explores the various ways in which regional trade agreements could address climate change objectives, and draws lessons from recent developments in regional trade governance for the further evolution of such agreements. |
| Keywords: | climate clubs, climate coalitions, free trade agreements, regional trade agreements, Trade and environment |
| JEL: | F13 F18 Q54 Q56 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaaa:2017/3-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Mariola Sasinowska (University of Warsaw, Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The article is primarily based on the research in the field of welfare economics, utility theory, social capital and econometrics. In the paper are discussed articles such authors as Bjornskov, Easterlin, Ravallion and Uslaner. Purpose of the article: The purpose is to explore the generalized social trust and subjective welfare of Poles and to their relationship. According to the author’s knowledge, such extensive research like this for Poland has not been yet conducted. Methodology of the article: Data sample used in the research comes from the project "Wycena, Aspekty Sprawiedliwosci i Preferencje Wzgledem Odnawialnych Zrodel Energii i ich lokalizacji w Polsce i w Niemczech" which was carried out with the support of the National Science Center. Econometric model was prepared based on the least squares method and the ordered probit model. Findings & Value Added: The main outcome of this paper is confirmed importance of the relationship between social trust and the subjective welfare of Poles. Furthermore, it has been proven that both social trust and subjective wealth can be linked both to income and non-income related factors such as inequality and education. |
| Keywords: | welfare economy; subjective economic welfare; social trust; ordered probit model |
| JEL: | D1 D6 I3 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no107&r=dcm |
| By: | Ellen Kisker; Lauren Murphy; Robert G. Wood |
| Abstract: | This issue brief shares highlights from the implementation evaluation of the Wise Guys program, funded by Iowa’s Personal Responsibility Education Program (PREP) grant. The Wise Guys curriculum aims to promote male responsibility and discourage early entry into fatherhood. |
| Keywords: | teen, pregnancy, prevention, PREP, fatherhood |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:fab96481e8564afb8cdb26bf0254fc98&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Horodecka (Warsaw School of Economics, Poland); Liudmyla Vozna (Independent researcher) |
| Abstract: | The authors’ researches in the field of economic equilibrium, labour market stability and working motivation; the synergetic paradigm; the research literature and statistical data dealing with wage inequality and unemployment. To present a dispersion (probabilistic) approach in using neoclassic demand and supply curves analysis and, thus, to propose a new definition of the equilibrium problem, which is closer to evolutionary paradigm; with help of the D-S curves, to prove the connection between degree of wage inequality and the general level of unemployment; to demonstrate two types of extreme macroeconomic instability in their relation with the character of wage inequality, and to regard them from the standpoint of the synergetic conception. Induction and deduction reasoning, analysis and synthesis, the method of analogy, content analysis of relevant literature, mathematical methods, interdisciplinary approach, the synthesis of orthodox (neoclassical) and heterodox (evolutionary) economics. Both situations – very low and very high wage inequality – are related with extreme macroeconomic instability. The first situation can be related not only with general poverty and homogenous, low skilled workforce, but, primarily, with absence of evolutionary change. A very high wage inequality can be related with inflexible labour markets, the relatively low level of social mobility and weak social cohesion. In the article, these two situations are compared with two types of disorder in the synergetic conception. With help of the curves of demand and supply, we demonstrate the action of macroeconomic synergistic effect, which is accompanied by economic growth, decreasing unemployment and the wage levelling. Our approach confirms that in a dynamic economy the actual level of employment is lower than potential one. Moreover, this approach can be used for diminishing the theoretical gap between such opposing interpretation of unemployment as neoclassical and Keynesian. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, unemployment, instability, evolutionary economics, synergistic effect |
| JEL: | B4 D63 E24 J2 J31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no37&r=dcm |
| By: | Volker Hahn (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We analyze a simple yet fully non-linear New Keynesian model with a central bank that pursues an inflation targeting strategy. Our analysis shows that expected adverse productivity shocks may drive the economy into a liquidity trap. As our model entails positive or moderately negative inflation in such a situation, it has the potential to explain the so-called “missing disinflation” in the Great Recession. In contrast with some previous papers, we find that the effects of fiscal policy in a liquidity trap are moderate and that reductions in labor income taxes are expansionary. We do not find support for higher inflation targets. Finally, we provide additional support for the view that the common practice of log-linearizing equilibrium relations can be potentially misleading in models with a lower bound on nominal interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Zero lower bound, missing disinflation, fiscal multiplier, liquidity trap, new Keynesian model, multiple equilibria, inflation target |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E62 |
| Date: | 2017–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:knz:dpteco:1705&r=dcm |
| By: | Davis, Brent |
| Abstract: | Negative political advertising is a common feature of election campaigns in liberal democracies, whether in the milder form of ‘contrast ads’ or the more aggressive form of ‘attack ads’. Despite a substantial volume of scholarship, whether such advertisements generate persuasion effects (persuading voters of the deficiencies in the subject of the ads) or backlash effects (diminishing the standing of the candidate/party promulgating the ads) remains a still-unresolved question. This ‘persuasion or backlash’ question may well reflect the implicit assumption in many of the research designs, and their associated (and consequently mis-specified) models: that causality runs from negative political advertising to vote intention. This article tests that assumption, and finds it wanting. Testing for endogeneity indicates a bi-directional causality between negative political advertising and vote intention; each causes the other, but with differential temporal profiles. For electoral scholars (and campaign strategists) this means the decision(s) to engage in negative political advertising is not just if, by whom or how, but also when. |
| Keywords: | election campaigns; political advertising; voter behavior; politico-econometric modelling; endogeneity; election forecasting |
| JEL: | C53 C54 D72 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79449&r=dcm |
| By: | Gianpaolo Parise; Kim Peijnenburg |
| Abstract: | We explore how financial distress and choices are affected by noncognitive abilities. Our measures stem from research in psychology and economics. In a representative panel of households, we find that people in the bottom decile of noncognitive abilities are five times more likely to experience financial distress compared to those in the top decile. Relatedly, individuals with lower noncognitive abilities make financial choices that increase their likelihood of distress: They are less likely to plan for retirement and save, and more likely to buy impulsively and to have unsecured debt. Causality is shown using childhood trauma as an instrument. |
| Keywords: | Noncognitive abilities, financial distress, financial choices, saving, unsecured debt, behavioral finance, psychology and economics |
| JEL: | D10 D14 G02 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:640&r=dcm |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | Les résultats de l’Évaluation des compétences des adultes (PIAAC) confirment que la maîtrise de la langue du pays d’accueil joue un rôle essentiel dans la réussite de l’intégration des immigrés dans leur nouvelle communauté et sur le marché du travail de leur pays d’accueil. Au vu de ces constats, les pays d’accueil pourraient concevoir et mettre en oeuvre des politiques afin de proposer aux immigrés une formation linguistique dès que possible, après leur arrivée. Cette mesure revêt une importance toute particulière pour les enfants immigrés, qui pourront ensuite poursuivre leur scolarité avec leurs pairs autochtones. |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduabc:6-fr&r=dcm |
| By: | Géraldine Ang (OECD); Pralhad Burli (Montclair State University); Dirk Röttgers (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This working paper undertakes econometric analysis to assess the impacts of climate mitigation policies and the quality of the investment environment on investment and innovation in renewable power in OECD and G20 countries. It also assesses how countries’ investment environments interact with climate mitigation policies to influence investment and patent activity in renewable power. The paper gathered and tested data across OECD and G20 countries on more than 70 explanatory variables, which were analysed using two Poisson-family regression models: one to investigate determinants of investment flows in renewable power from 2000 until 2014; and one to investigate determinants of patent counts in renewable-power technologies from 2000 until 2012. Results of the econometric analysis are consistent with the main hypothesis in this paper that beyond setting climate mitigation policies, policy makers need to strengthen the general investment environment and align it with climate mitigation policies in order to mobilise investment and innovation in renewable power across OECD and G20 countries. |
| Keywords: | climate change, climate finance, estimation, public intervention, regression |
| JEL: | F30 H23 L94 O3 Q42 Q48 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:123-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Grant, Everett (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Yung, Julieta (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | We estimate global inter-firm networks across all major industries from 1981 through 2016 and provide the first empirical tests for both robust (beneficial) and fragile (harmful) network behavior, relating firms' health with global integration. More connected firms are less likely to be in distress and have higher profit growth and equity returns, but are also more exposed to direct contagion from distressed neighboring firms and network level crises. Our analysis reveals the centrality of finance in the international firm network and increased globalization, with greater potential for crises to spread globally when they do occur. |
| JEL: | C3 F36 F61 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:313&r=dcm |
| By: | Bergin, James P. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Panel Opening Remarks at the Forex Network New York 2017, New York City. |
| Keywords: | Global Foreign Exchange Committee (GFXC); Market Participants Group; code of conduct; New York Foreign Exchange Committee (FXC); global code of conduct; principles; last look; voluntary code; adherence to code; Statement of Commitment |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:249&r=dcm |
| By: | Jacqueline Doremus (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how a road connection in a remote area of Congo changes hunger and illness for ethnic minorities. Ethnic minorities’ production activities are highly local, making it hard to construct a valid counter-factual. We exploit a natural experiment: a river boundary between two forests, one of which builds roads to satisfy eco-certification. We find the road increases trade and leads to the export of farmed food products. People and households increase production and specialize. Ethnic minorities, net buyers of exported food during this season, face higher prices and lower real wages. We find the road increases their frequency of hunger and illness. In Central Africa, hunting restrictions accompany roads to prevent over exploitation of fauna. We find the restrictions reduce hunting effort for all households. Households shift consumption to fish but, on net, consume protein less frequently, with non-fisher households seeing the largest decreases. |
| Keywords: | ethnic inequality, rural roads, nutrition, poverty, Africa, Congo |
| JEL: | O12 J15 J24 O18 Q12 F14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpl:wpaper:1702&r=dcm |
| By: | Tran, Hien Thu; Carbonara, Emanuela; Santarelli, Enrico |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present an occupational choice model for entrepreneurs, in which, based on their individual skills and on the quality of their business, entrepreneurs can keep their original business, open a new business in the same or another sector along the current business (portfolio entrepreneur), shut it down to either start a new one (serial entrepreneur) or to turn to dependent employment. We test our theory using a 10-year panel dataset (2001 to 2010) of more than 4,000 Vietnamese manufacturing firms. We estimate an occupational choice model and a survival model and find that: (i) a greater endowment of human capital is associated with a higher likelihood to become a serial or a portfolio entrepreneur; (ii) A higher quality of the new business is associated to a higher likelihood of being habitual entrepreneurs. Particularly, high entrepreneurial skills together with a high-quality business positively influence the likelihood to be serial or portfolio; (iii) novice entrepreneurs with high entrepreneurial skill and a high-quality business are more likely to keep their business. |
| Keywords: | Portfolio entrepreneurship,serial entrepreneurship,occupational choice,industrial policy |
| JEL: | F02 L26 L53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:74&r=dcm |
| By: | Federico Palucci (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Annalisa Terracina (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Massimo Mecella (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This document describes the realization of “Gea 2:A New Earth†, a serious game for supporting STEM teaching in high school, coping with both technological and pedagogical challenges, and thought as a supporting teaching tool to be used in classes, as an alternative to the more traditional frontal lessons. |
| Keywords: | Unity ; serious game ; technology enhanced learning ; STEM |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aeg:report:2017-06&r=dcm |
| By: | Eleni Dalla (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy, in the context of a theoretical model that captures both the banking and the firm behavior. Following the industrial organization approach to banking, the banking sector is described by a two-stage Cournot game with scope economies. On the other hand, the firm behavior concerns the investment decision which is explained using a second order accelerator model in discrete time. Considering the interbank rate and the reserve requirements as the instruments of monetary policy, it is demonstrated that its effectiveness depends on the type of scope economies in the oligopolistic banking sector.. |
| Keywords: | interbank rate, investment decision, reserve requirements, scope economies. |
| JEL: | G21 L13 D92 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2017_05&r=dcm |
| By: | Greer Gosnell |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the potential for environmental information and dissonance-inducing messaging to encourage resourceful behaviour, following a study of customers of a renewable energy provider in the UK. It uses the manipulation of message framing to analyse behavioural motivators that businesses may consider when encouraging customers – in this case, those who already have revealed environmental preferences – to switch from paper to online communications. In a large-scale natural field experiment comprising 38,654 customers of renewable supplier Good Energy, the author has randomised environmental information and messaging rooted in theories of cognitive dissonance in email communications promoting an active switch to paperless billing. The study finds that environmental information and imagery are ineffective in inducing behaviour change. Interestingly, the dissonance-inducing messaging weakly improves uptake among the main sample but backfires among a sub-sample of individuals with extensive postgraduate education. Contrary to the majority of the literature on gender and environmental behaviour, females in the sample are less likely to switch to paperless billing than males. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp269&r=dcm |
| By: | Gideon Bornstein; Per Krusell; Sergio Rebelo |
| Abstract: | We use a new micro data set to compile some key facts about the oil market and estimate a structural industry equilibrium model that is consistent with these facts. We find that demand and supply shocks contribute equally to the volatility of oil prices but that the volatility of investment by oil firms is driven mostly by demand shocks. Our model predicts that the advent of fracking will eventually result in a large reduction in oil price volatility. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q43 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23423&r=dcm |
| By: | Magdalena Popowska (Politechnika Gdanska, Wydzial Zarzadzania i Ekonomii, Poland); Beata Ratkowska (Politechnika Gdanska, Wydzial Zarzadzania i Ekonomii, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, there is a general understanding that stakeholders are crucial for the successful enterprise. There is also a need to think about Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in a global context. Never before corporations enjoyed so much power and authority. Corporations need to evolve, re-think their strategies and change their processes accordingly. However, as of now, there is no agreed way of measuring overall sustainability of actions of each company. There is a great need for holistic studies of CSR, analyzing in details the value created, from stakeholders point of view. This paper is an attempt to propose a way of looking at corporate social responsibility in line with current methodologies and frameworks focusing on value creation. Currently there is no one definition of global CSR to be used, nor there is one comprehensive methodology to describe it. Instead there is abundance of theories and frameworks. This paper proposes one definition and presents a method of analysis of the global corporate commitment to CSR approach. The main concern of this paper is to offer an insight into different ways companies can create value for various stakeholders groups. To narrow the scope of the conducted analysis, the authors identified 13 companies, potential sustainability winners, from products industry Analyzed were both, CSR execution capacity and CSR value creation assessed on basis of compliance with identified CSR basic actions catalogue. Conducted analysis indicated that products companies are aware of needs and expectations of various stakeholders and are good at meeting them. Although assessed companies managed to link sustainability with their strategies, they did not achieve transforming sustainability into core of their business. |
| Keywords: | CSR; sustainability; CSR reporting; CSR measuring; global CSR |
| JEL: | Q01 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no94&r=dcm |
| By: | Jennifer Jhun; Patricia Palacios; James Owen Weatherall |
| Abstract: | We study the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of financial market crashes (Johansen, Ledoit, and Sornette [2000] "Crashes as Critical Points." Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finan. 3(2) 219-255). On our view, the JLS model is a curious case from the perspective of the recent philosophy of science literature, as it is naturally construed as a "minimal model" in the sense of Batterman and Rice (Batterman and Rice [2014] "Minimal Model Explanations." Phil. Sci. 81(3): 349-376) that nonetheless provides a causal explanation of market crashes, in the sense of Woodward's interventionist account of causation (Woodward [2003]. Making Things Happen. Oxford:Oxford University Press). |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1704.02392&r=dcm |
| By: | Hawkins, Raymond J.; Nguyen, Chau N. |
| Abstract: | The authors solve the IS puzzle for the G7 countries. They find that five of the G7 countries have the expected significant negative relationship between the output gap and the realrate gap; the time series of the remaining two show material deviation from expected IScurve behavior. The authors show that the observed time dependence of the interaction between the output and real-rate gaps can be represented in a parsimonious and practical manner using the theory of anelasticity that unifies partial-adjustment specifications of the IS curve. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomics,IS curve,inflation,anelasticity |
| JEL: | C22 E3 E32 E52 E61 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201720&r=dcm |
| By: | Talat S. Genc (Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph ON Canada); Stanley S. Reynolds (Department of Economics, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the market implications of ownership of a new low-cost production technology. We relate our theoretical findings to measuring the impact of renewable energy penetration into electricity markets and examine how the ownership of renewable capacity changes market outcomes (prices, outputs, emissions). As the current public policies influence the renewable energy ownership, this research provides useful insights for policy makers. We show that ownership of renewable capacity will matter when there is market power in energy market. We apply our findings to the Ontario wholesale electricity market to analyze the impact of different ownership structures for wind capacity expansions. We show that consumers enjoy better air quality under the largest firm's ownership, but at the expense of higher prices. We find that market structure and the shape of generation cost functions are the key drivers explaining the impact of renewable ownership on market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Market structure, technology ownership, renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions |
| JEL: | D4 L1 Q5 Q4 Q2 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gue:guelph:2017-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Prescott, Edward Simpson (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Nurisso, George (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | This paper traces the origin of the too-big-to-fail problem in banking to the bailout of the $1.2 billion Bank of the Commonwealth in 1972. It describes this bailout and those of subsequent banks through that of Continental Illinois in 1984. Motivations behind the bailouts are described with a particular emphasis on those provided by Irvine Sprague in his book Bailout. During this period, market concentration due to interstate banking restrictions is a factor in most of the bailouts, and systemic risk concerns were raised to justify the bailouts of surprisingly small banks. Sprague’s descriptions are also used to describe the trade offs and the time-consistency problem faced by bank regulators. Finally, most of the bailouts in this period relied on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s use of the Essentiality Doctrine. A discussion of this doctrine is provided and used to illustrate how legal constraints on regulators may become less constraining over time. |
| Keywords: | Too big to fail; deposit insurance; banking; time consistency; TBTF; |
| JEL: | G21 G28 N22 |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1710&r=dcm |
| By: | Gina Livermore; Maura Bardos; Hannah Burak |
| Abstract: | This is the first of two primary reports that will describe the findings of the Pathways evaluation. |
| Keywords: | SourceAmerica, Pathways, Careers, Utah |
| JEL: | I J |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:fde95a28c9164e0b8b410104ede05bd9&r=dcm |
| By: | Matthew Johnson; Alicia Demers; Cleo Jacobs Johnson; Claudia Gentile |
| Abstract: | In each of its first five years, the Kauffman School had positive, statistically significant, and educationally meaningful impacts on student achievement growth in mathematics, English language arts and science, beyond the growth achieved by students in other Kansas City public schools. |
| Keywords: | Charter School, Closing the Achievement Gap, Secondary School Evaluation |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:917049103ecc4f93ba12260b59a81b56&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Lukasiewicz (Department of Informatics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland); Krzysztof Karpio (Department of Informatics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland); Arkadiusz Orlowski (Department of Informatics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: studies of structures of incomes distributions have been performer for about 15 years. They indicate that there is no one model which describes the distributions in their whole range. This effect is explained by the existence of different mechanisms yielding to low-medium and high incomes. While more than 97% of the distributions can be described by models with two or three parameter, high incomes (about 3% or less) is in agreement with power law. Purpose of the article: the aim of this paper is an analysis of the structure of distributions of households’ incomes in Poland. By using various models we verify the hypothesis about two-part structure of those distributions. Methodology/methods: the studies are based on the households’ budgets microdata for years 2004 – 2012. The two-component models were used to describe the incomes distributions. The major parts of the distributions have been described by the two or three parametric models: lognormal, Dagum, and Singha-Madalla. The highest incomes were described by the Pareto model. Findings: one has showed that two or three parametric models explain from about 95% to more than 99% of ranges of income distributions. The poorest agreement with data is for lognormal model, while the best agreement has been obtained for Dagum model. Regarding the highest incomes the Pareto model describe the data very well only for the selected years. For the remaining years the results are not so obvious. The tails of the income distributions seems to have more complex structure |
| Keywords: | income distribution; incomes models; Pareto model; power law |
| JEL: | C51 C52 D31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no64&r=dcm |
| By: | Quinn, Stephen F. (Texas Christian University); Roberds, William (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract: | We investigate a monetary regime with persistent, near-zero policy interest rates ("permazero" in the terminology of Bullard 2015). This regime was implemented in 1683 by a prominent early central bank called the Bank of Amsterdam ("Bank"). The Bank fixed its policy rate at one-half percent and held it unchanged for more than a century. Maintaining the rate helped stabilize the value of Bank money. We employ archival data to reconstruct the Bank's activities during a portion of that interval (1736–91) for which data are most readily available. The data suggest that "permazero" worked well for long periods because the Bank counteracted market swings with quantitative operations. These same data show how fiscal exploitation denied the Bank sufficient resources to stabilize large shocks, with adverse results. |
| Keywords: | central banks; monetary policy; zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E58 E65 N13 |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:2017-05&r=dcm |
| By: | Paul A. Gompers (Harvard Business School, Finance Unit); Kevin Huang (Harvard Business School); Sophie Q. Wang (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of homophily in group formation. Using a unique dataset of MBA students, we observe homophily in ethnicity and gender increases the probability of forming teams by 25%. Homophily in education and past working experience increases the probability of forming teams by 17% and 11 % respectively. Homophily in education and working experience is stronger among males than females. Further, we examine the causal impact of homophily on team performance. Homophily in ethnicity increases team performance by lifting teams in bottom quantiles to median performance quantiles, but it does not increase the chance of being top performers. Our findings have implications for understanding the lack of diversity in entrepreneurship and venture capital industry. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:17-104&r=dcm |
| By: | Funke, Michael; Kirkby, Robert; Mihaylovski, Petar |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effects of macroprudential and monetary policies and their interactions using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to New Zealand. We find that the main historical drivers of house prices are shocks specific to the housing sector. While our estimates show that monetary policy has large spillover effects on house prices, it does not appear to have been a major driver of house prices in New Zealand. We consider macroprudential policies, including the loan-to-value restrictions that have been implemented in New Zealand. We find that loan-to-value restrictions reduce house prices with negligible effects on consumer prices, suggesting that they can be used without derailing monetary policy. We estimate that the loan-to-value restrictions imposed in New Zealand in 2013 reduced house prices by 3.8 per cent and that greater forward guidance on their duration would have made them more effective. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policies, Housing, DSGE, Bayesian estimation, New Zealand, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:6354&r=dcm |
| By: | Arthur Lewbel (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Lewbel (2012) provides an estimator for linear regression models containing an endogenous regressor, when no outside instruments or other such information is available. The method works by exploiting model heteroscedasticity to construct instruments using the available regressors. Some authors have considered the method in empirical applications where an endogenous regressor is binary (e.g., endogenous Diff-in-Diff or endogenous binary treatment models), without proving validity of the estimator in that case. The present paper shows that the assumptions required for Lewbel’s estimator can indeed be satisfied when an endogenous regressor is binary. |
| Keywords: | Simultaneous systems, linear regressions, endogeneity, identification, heteroscedasticity, binary regressors, dummy regressors, linear probability model, logit, probit |
| JEL: | C35 C36 C30 C13 |
| Date: | 2016–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:927&r=dcm |
| By: | Matthew Johnson; Alicia Demers; Cleo Jacobs Johnson; Claudia Gentile |
| Abstract: | In each of its first five years, the Kauffman School had positive, statistically significant, and educationally meaningful impacts on student achievement growth in mathematics, English language arts and science, beyond the growth achieved by students in other Kansas City public schools. |
| Keywords: | Charter School, Closing the Achievement Gap, Secondary School Evaluation |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:1039192a750f4d4da0058482b9a11933&r=dcm |
| By: | Miguez, Thiago; Willcox, Luiz Daniel; Daudt, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | For several reasons the capital goods industry (CGI) is strategic for Brazil. This study aims to analyze this industry’s recent behavior in a period when the Brazilian economy regained momentum. We will evaluate some opportunities for several segments in the Brazilian economy by breaking down investment into several activities while we simultaneously evaluate the Brazilian capital goods industry’s ability to benefit from these mentioned opportunities. Data from IBGE and MDIC will be used in this study and also from Capital Flow Tables (CFT) and from BNDES’ operations and estimates of future investments. |
| Keywords: | industrial structure; manufacturing; capital goods; capital flow table; gross fixed capital formation; BNDES; Brazilian economy |
| JEL: | L16 L60 L62 L63 L64 O14 O25 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79365&r=dcm |
| By: | Alejandro Barrera Escobar; Juan Felipe Castellanos Martinez; Sandra Milena Gómez Vallejo |
| Abstract: | La quinta edición de esta serie presenta un estudio sobre el sector solidario en Manizales, el cual pretende brindar un diagnóstico general de línea base de las Entidades Sin Ánimo de Lucro -ESAL- en la ciudad, debido al poco estudio y análisis que presenta actualmente en la investigación económica. El estudio pretende dar una mirada inicial al sector, partiendo de un marco conceptual sobre la denominada economía solidaria, sus generalidades y su reglamentación. Por otra parte, se busca establecer cómo está compuesto el sector, el mercado laboral que dinamiza, y los ingresos, gastos y activos de este tipo de entidades. También se presentan otros datos relevantes del sector como es la información estratégica y de percepción de las Entidades Sin Ánimo de Lucro en la ciudad de Manizales. |
| Keywords: | Sector Solidario ; Estudios Sectoriales ; Entidades Sin Ánimo de Lucro ; Fundaciones ; Asociaciones |
| Date: | 2016–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000512:015620&r=dcm |
| By: | Roberto Marfè; Julien Penasse |
| Abstract: | While time-varying disasters can explain many characteristics of financial markets, their quantitative assessment is still missing. We propose a latent variable approach to estimate the time-varying probability of a macroeconomic disaster, using a dataset of 42 countries over more than 100 years. We find that disaster risk is volatile and persistent, strongly correlates with the dividend yield, and forecasts stock returns. A state-of-the-art model calibrated with our disaster risk estimates generates a large and volatile equity premium and a low risk free rate under standard assumptions. This evidence supports the idea that investors' fear of disasters drives equity premium dynamics. |
| Keywords: | rare disasters, equity premium, return predictability, state-space model |
| JEL: | E44 G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:463&r=dcm |
| By: | Roy, Souvik; Sadhukhan, Soumyarup |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a unified characterization of the unanimous and strategy-proof random rules on a class of domains that are based on some prior ordering over the alternatives. It identifies a condition called top-richness so that, if a domain satisfies top-richness, then an RSCF on it is unanimous and strategy-proof if and only if it is a convex combination of tops-restricted min-max rules. Well-known domains like single-crossing, single-peaked, single-dipped etc. satisfy top-richness. This paper also provides a characterization of the random min-max domains. Furthermore, it offers a characterization of the tops-only and strategy-proof random rules on top-rich domains satisfying top-connectedness. Finally, it presents a characterization of the unanimous (tops-only) and group strategy-proof random rules on those domains. |
| Keywords: | Random Social Choice Functions; Unanimity; Strategy-proofness; Tops-onlyness; Uncompromisingness; Random min-max Rules; Single-crossing Domains. |
| JEL: | D71 D82 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79363&r=dcm |
| By: | Paul A. Gompers; Kevin Huang; Sophie Q. Wang |
| Abstract: | We study the role of homophily in group formation. Using a unique dataset of MBA students, we observe homophily in ethnicity and gender increases the probability of forming teams by 25%. Homophily in education and past working experience increases the probability of forming teams by 17% and 11 % respectively. Homophily in education and working experience is stronger among males than females. Further, we examine the causal impact of homophily on team performance. Homophily in ethnicity increases team performance by lifting teams in bottom quantiles to median performance quantiles, but it does not increase the chance of being top performers. Our findings have implications for understanding the lack of diversity in entrepreneurship and venture capital industry. |
| JEL: | J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23459&r=dcm |
| By: | Krotov, Alexander Y. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Krotova, Nadezhda A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kleeva, Lyudmila P. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Aganbegyan, Abel G. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the possibility of using policy of "financial afterburner" to enhance the socio-economic development of Russia is studied. The analysis of the ways of mobilizing the internal sources of investments in Russia, primarily the assets of Russian Banks, showed the sufficiency of these sources and appropriateness of prevalence of investment loan in the sources of financing the investment activities. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021701&r=dcm |
| By: | Andrew J. Seltzer; Daniel S. Hamermesh |
| Abstract: | Over the last six decades articles published in leading economic history journals have been less likely to be co-authored than articles published in leading general economics journals. However, in both economic history and general economics journals there have been strong, monotonic increases in the number of authors per article and the fraction of co-authored papers. Economics and economic history differ in the nature of collaboration, in that coauthorships in economic history are more likely to be formed of individuals of different seniority as compared to economics generally. |
| Keywords: | co-authorship, economic history and economics |
| JEL: | N01 B41 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:054&r=dcm |
| By: | Fang, Zheng (School of Business, SIM University, Singapore); Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the cointegration and Granger causal relationship between economic growth and total energy consumption as well as disaggregate energy such as coal, coke, crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity in China for a period of 1995-2014. Different from limited existing provincial studies on China, we use a multivariate framework that considers per capita human capital on top of physical capital in the neoclassical production function and advanced panel econometric methodologies that allow for cross-sectional dependence. Our results suggest that human capital exerts 2-3 times the effect of physical capital on the economy and energy also plays a significant role. Furthermore, the rich bootstrap panel Granger causality test results for both the panel and individual provinces provide substantial insights and suggest that it is important to examine the causal effects of both the total energy use and various disaggregate energy consumption before local governments make specific energy and economic policies. |
| Keywords: | energy-growth nexus, human capital, cross-sectional dependence, China |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Joanna Bednarz (Institute of International Business, University of Gdansk); Magdalena Markiewicz (Institute of International Business, University of Gdansk); Agnieszka Ploska (Self-employed, a company owner) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Crowdfunding (CF) is a method of raising money for projects and enterprises by an online platform. Since around 2003 it is getting popular and becoming a natural method of pre-financing for start-ups before reaching out to investors. The estimations gave the scale of raising worldwide 35 bn USD via CF platforms in 2015. In 2016 CF was on track to surpass venture capital investments. Yet, this method doesn’t progress equally worldwide and it is essential to find out what makes the difference of its development between the countries. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to examine the potential relation between: (1) the welfare of the countries, (2) structure of population and (3) availability of crowdfunding. The research is dedicated to the chosen countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the period of 2005-2015, giving a perspective of changes in different terms of economy. Methodology/methods: This article, theoretical and empirical in character, is based on international desk research findings. The authors used methods of data collection, organizing and processing information. Moreover, they implemented methods of analogy and deduction, while studying papers, as well as the selection, analysis and synthesis methods. Findings: There is no direct correlation between GDP per capita of the country with it online alternative investments per capita. The richness of the country does not influence people willingness to invest money through online tools. In the countries of average level of welfare, alternative financing is used more widely. Moreover, there is a significant impact of the age structure of the population on the crowdfunding development. Estonia has the youngest structure of population and even there are not many inhabitants and the GDP per capita is average, the country has the most willing online crowd investors. |
| Keywords: | crowdfunding, social funding, innovation, financing, CEE |
| JEL: | G24 L26 M13 O16 O53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no70&r=dcm |
| By: | Gerard Roland; David Y. Yang |
| Abstract: | Beliefs about whether effort pays off govern some of the most fundamental choices individuals make. This paper uses China’s Cultural Revolution to understand how these beliefs can be affected, how they impact behavior, and how they are transmitted across generations. During the Cultural Revolution, China’s college admission system based on entrance exams was suspended for a decade until 1976, effectively depriving an entire generation of young people of the opportunity to access higher education (the “lost generation”). Using data from a nationally representative survey, we compare cohorts who graduated from high school just before and after the college entrance exam was resumed. We find that members of the “lost generation” who missed out on college because they were born just a year or two too early believe that effort pays off to a much lesser degree, even 40 years into their adulthood. However, they invested more in their children’s education, and transmitted less of their changed beliefs to the next generation, suggesting attempts to safeguard their children from sharing their misfortunes. |
| JEL: | I23 O53 P26 P48 Z1 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23441&r=dcm |
| By: | Hodori, Arif; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Takaful or Islamic Insurance is a branch of Islamic Finance that is frequently overlooked, with a very few empirical studies done in the field. In Malaysia, Takaful’s asset base had grown from just RM$1.4 million in 1986 to RM$23 billion in 2014. Despite this significant growth, there has been very few empirical studies done in the field, especially on the determinants of Takaful operators’ profitability. Motivated by this, this paper aims to investigate the determinants of profitability of Takaful operators by using the dynamic GMM estimator. This study finds that Takaful operators’ size and age are significant determinants of its profitability. However, there are various limitations and challenges that this paper faced, especially on data availability which forced us to resort to manually extracting the data from the financial statements of the companies from their websites at a heavy cost of time and effort. This indicates the attention, work and effort that researchers in the field of Islamic Finance should give to this relatively unexplored field as deeper understanding of this field is crucial for supporting its growth and innovation. |
| Keywords: | Islamic insurance, profitability, Malaysia, dynamic GMM |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79441&r=dcm |
| By: | Skrobotov, Anton (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Turuntseva, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Testing of a unit root in the data is of great importance for the empirical analysis. Almost one or macroeconomic study is not without testing whether a particular stationary time series against the trend (trend stationary, TS) or It is stationary in first differences (difference stationary, DS). In the first If the number is stationary relative to the trend, the number of simulated necessary levels. Otherwise, you need to go to the first difference time series if it is modeled by this specific number separately,or proceed to the cointegration analysis of multiple time series, each which is non-stationary. The presence of cointegration allows us to give feasibility study of long-term and short-term dependency adjustments to long-term equilibrium. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021707&r=dcm |
| By: | Fosso Djoumessi, Yannik |
| Abstract: | This study examines the efficiency of smallholder vegetable farmers in the forest zone of the Southwest region of Cameroon. Data used was collected by means of a field survey within the framework of the Humidtropics program. This study aims to evaluate the technical efficiency levels of small-scale vegetable producers and to identify the sources of inefficiency. It therefore has two specific objectives: i) estimate the technical efficiency of smallholder vegetable farmers, (ii) identify the determinants of the technical efficiency of smallholder vegetable farmers. The efficiency scores for a sample of 100 producers are obtained using Data Envelopment Analysis and a Tobit model is used to identify the sources of inefficiency. The calculated technical efficiency scores range from 12% to 100%, with a mean technical efficiency index of 70% for the constant returns to scale (CRS) model. The technical efficiency scores for the variable returns to scale (VRS) model range from 23% to 100% with a mean score of 79%. Scale efficiency ranges from 40% to 100% with a mean of 87%. The mean technical efficiency scores indicate that there exist better ways of using resources which can push the production of the average producer right to the frontier. The findings show that farm size and access to credit influence efficiency significantly and positively. Age, household size, experience, manure, farm-related training and extension contact improve the efficiency of farmers. Meanwhile, education and membership of farmers’ association have no effect on the productive performance of vegetable farmers. Public and private stakeholders should therefore focus on these factors in order to reduce technical inefficiency |
| Keywords: | Data Envelopment Analysis, Forest-based System, Smallholder, Technical efficiency |
| JEL: | Q12 |
| Date: | 2015–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79371&r=dcm |
| By: | Naamneh, Rakan; Alboursh, Asem; Al-Amer, Ayman |
| Abstract: | This project covers certain types of rotor generator vibrational problem, including both conventionally-cooled (indirect copper cooling) windings and direct cooled copper windings as well as those with spindle and body mounted retaining rings. The options for rewinding, modifying, or upgrading are provided for each case type as encountered in the Jordan Petroleum Refinery. Generally; when dealing with generator rotors, problems like oversizing, misalignment, rotor imbalance, off-design operation, lubrication problems, shaft seals, cavitation, balancing system, and vibration are encountered. Methods of resolving vibration problem diagnosis were discussed using different techniques like vibration design analysis which will enhance root cause problems. We have proposed different maintenance best practice like rotor dynamic balance, appropriate operation, seals selection, and lubricant selection. At the end we have proposed a design solution appropriate for failure prevention using rotor balancing after rework or modifications. |
| Keywords: | conventionally cooled winding, lubrication, design failure |
| JEL: | O53 Y40 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79318&r=dcm |
| By: | HAYAKAWA Kazunobu; MATSUURA Toshiyuki |
| Abstract: | In this study, we empirically examine the effects of customers' foreign direct investment (FDI) on their domestic transaction ties and the performance of their suppliers. In particular, we examine the difference in such effects between the first- (direct) and second-tier (indirect) suppliers. To this end, we utilize a unique firm-level survey in Japan that contains information on inter-firm transaction networks matched with FDI data. Our findings can be summarized as follows. There is no evidence that customers' FDI is more likely to suspend their domestic transactions. Rather, direct suppliers' transaction ties with multinational enterprises (MNEs) are more persistent than those with other firms. Although such an effect becomes weak for transactions between direct and indirect suppliers, we did not find a negative effect. Furthermore, customers' FDI has a significantly positive impact on employment growth for both their direct and indirect suppliers. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17085&r=dcm |
| By: | Bazhanov, Andrei; Levin, Yuri; Nediak, Mikhail |
| Abstract: | We consider a decentralized supply chain (DSC) under resale price maintenance (RPM)selling a limited-lifetime product to forward-looking customers with heterogeneous valuations. When customers do not know the inventory level, double marginalization in DSC leads to a higher profit and lower aggregate welfare than in centralized supply chain (CSC). When customers know the inventory, DSC coincides with CSC. Thus, overestimation of customer awareness may lead to overcentralization of supply chains with profit loss comparable with the loss from strategic customers. The case with unknown inventory is extended to an arbitrary number of retailers with inventory-independent and inventory-dependent demand. In both cases, the manufacturer, by setting a higher wholesale price, mitigates the inventory-increasing effect of competition and reaches the same profit as with a single retailer. The high viability of RPM as a strategic-behavior-mitigating tool may serve as another explanation of why manufacturers may prefer DSC with RPM to a vertically integrated firm. |
| Keywords: | limited-lifetime product, strategic customers, limited information, aggregate welfare, oligopoly |
| JEL: | D9 L13 L42 |
| Date: | 2017–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79467&r=dcm |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Results from the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) confirm that mastery of the host country’s language is essential if immigrants are to integrate successfully into their new communities and into the host country’s labour market. Given these findings, host countries could design and implement policies to provide language training to immigrants as soon as feasible after they arrive. This is particularly important for immigrant children, who can then attend school with their native-born peers. |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduabb:6-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Stapran, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how Russia and other APEC economies implemented APEC Growth Strategy in 2010-2015. Moreover, it provides a list of recommendations to guide Russia’s implementation of APEC Strategy for Strengthening Quality Growth that followed APEC Growth Strategy in 2015, taking into account the key priorities of Russia’s economic and social development. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041720&r=dcm |
| By: | YIN Ting; ZHANG Junchao |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effect of education on intergenerational transfers from/to adult children. Using micro-data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we exploit exogenous variations in parents' schooling induced by China's Great Famine to take account of the endogeneity of education, and then estimate the effect of schooling on the probability of receiving/giving transfers from/to adult children. The instrumental variable estimates show that an additional year of schooling has a negative effect on the probability of receiving transfers, but a positive effect on the probability of giving transfers at old age. Our results have some policy implications on social security in aging societies. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17074&r=dcm |
| By: | Johanna Catherine Maclean; Michael F. Pesko; Steven C. Hill |
| Abstract: | In this study we explore the early effects of recent Medicaid expansions on prescriptions and Medicaid payments for evidence-based smoking cessation prescription medications: Zyban, Chantix, and Nicotrol. We estimate differences-in-differences models using data on the universe of prescription medications sold in retail and online pharmacies for which Medicaid was a third-party payer. Our findings suggest that expansions increased prescriptions for smoking cessation medications by 36% and total payments for these medications increased by 28%. We provide evidence these payments were financed by state Medicaid programs and not patients themselves. Overall our findings suggest that the recent Medicaid expansions allowed low-income smokers to access effective cessation medications. |
| JEL: | I1 I13 I18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23450&r=dcm |
| By: | Gabueva, Larisa A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pavlova, Nina F. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, in the context of rejection of non-rigid state regulation of budgetary and autonomous health institutions, large participation of big private foreign companies in the security functions of the industry (equipment, medicines and supplies, food and so forth.), coming to the market of network domestic private clinics, which "take away" a big part of work from the state programs for free medical insurance, the issue of establishing new competitive advantages for stable public and private clinics, which would be based on knowledge and information generated by the human resource. The article is devoted to the analysis of these tendencies in competition of health care companies. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021705&r=dcm |
| By: | Alejandro Pereyra; Gustavo Demarco; Flavio Buchieri |
| Abstract: | Se examinan los efectos sociales de las dos últimas grandes crisis o cambios estructurales en Argentina ocurridas, la primera, durante 1989/1990 y, la segunda, durante los años 2001/2002. Para ello se estudia la relación entre la volatilidad del PIB y la vulnerabilidad social medida a través del índice de pobreza. Se analiza los impactos que la inestabilidad agregada genera sobre la vulnerabilidad social en torno a las dos crisis estructurales antes mencionadas y profundizamos en lo que se conocen como “asimetrías del ciclo”. |
| Keywords: | asimetrías, volatilidad, pobreza, cointegración. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:wpaper:0517&r=dcm |
| By: | Masanari Asano; Irina Basieva; Andrei Khrennikov; Masanori Ohya; Yoshiharu Tanaka |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we introduce a new model of selection behavior under risk that describes an essential cognitive process for comparing values of objects and making a selection decision. This model is constructed by the quantum-like approach that employs the state representation specific to quantum theory, which has the mathematical framework beyond the classical probability theory. We show that our quantum approach can clearly explain the famous examples of anomalies for the expected utility theory, the Ellsberg paradox, the Machina paradox and the disparity between WTA and WTP. Further, we point out that our model mathematically specifies the characteristics of the probability weighting function and the value function, which are basic concepts in the prospect theory. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.08536&r=dcm |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polushkina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Semionova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work assesses the contribution of education to socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The information base for the study was official statistics. Assessment of the contribution of education was carried out for each level of the education system: secondary general education, primary professional, secondary professional and higher vocational education. The analysis of the contribution of education to the socioeconomic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation was carried out both for the Russian Federation as a whole and for the federal districts of the Russian Federation and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The results of the study are supplemented by an analysis of the contribution of higher education to the socioeconomic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation in the sample. Regions of Russia in the context of 55 enlarged groups of specialties. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031708&r=dcm |
| By: | Belyakov, Sergei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polushkina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The study has two main objectives: the development of models of additional vocational education, as an element of the system of continuous education, and analysis of the regulation of additional Vocational education. The study allowed to determine the main characteristics of Vocational education and develop its system of indicators. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041716&r=dcm |
| By: | Duarte, Rosa; Ferrando, Sandra; Molina, Jose Alberto |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the determinants of escaping poverty through education in Spain, with this being the country that, according to Eurostat (2010), is among the top European countries regarding the percentage of the population affected by poverty. Specifically, the paper studies the transmission of poverty over two generations by analyzing the factors that affect the probability of having completed the secondary level of education. To that end, we use the conceptual Quantity-Quality model of Becker-Lewis, empirically estimated by using the Survey of Living Conditions (2011) provided by the Spanish Statistical Institute. Our results confirm the intergenerational transmission of poverty in Spain, in such a way that the probability that the respondent has completed secondary education is determined, although not exclusively, by the family conditions of the respondents during their teenage years. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Education, Intergenerational Transmission, Spain. |
| JEL: | D12 I32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79454&r=dcm |
| By: | Howard Bodenhorn |
| Abstract: | Saving is essential to the health of economies because it provides the wherewithal for investment. In the late nineteenth century, saving was also essential to the health of urban working-class households. This study brings together information from surveys of household spending and saving, reports of savings banks and insurance companies, water and sewer authorities, and health commissioners to illuminate the connections between household savings and health improvements. Contemporary financial institutions positively influenced economic growth by allocating capital to highly productive employments, including public infrastructure. Specifically, investments in waterworks contributed to the long-run decline in typhoid infection, which improved worker health and productivity. |
| JEL: | I15 N31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23430&r=dcm |
| By: | Bogna Janik (WSB University in Poznan, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Banks play an important role connected with financing pro-ecological investments made by enterprises. They support pro-ecological activities of the entities applying for financing or offer saving/investment products relating to the environmental impact. In terms of their external pro-ecological activities there can be distinguished two groups of banks. The first group offers a wide selection of products and pro-ecological services as well as uses the tools of environmental risk management. The second group concentrates on offering selective products and services as well as is active in the area of pro-ecological marketing. The main objective of the study is to identify and assess some chosen aspects of ecological activities of the banks listed on Stock Exchanges in CEE countries and included in sustainable indices such as: RESPECT, CEERIUS and VONIX. The scope of this analysis encompasses selected dimensions illustrating banks’ activities in terms of environmental protection. The analysis of the investigated dilemma was based mainly on the desk research of digital and documentary sources. The results indicate relatively huge differences across environmental care in value-based banks compared to conventional banks, and small differences between value-based banks themselves. |
| Keywords: | value-based banking, social banking, environmental care, sustainable indices |
| JEL: | G21 Q01 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no40&r=dcm |
| By: | Daniel Cardona (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Antoni Rubí-Barceló (Universitat de les Illes Balears) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the welfare implications of requiring either unanimity or simple majority in negotiations to distribute a budget among agents who previously can invest to generate positive consumption externalities to others. The present paper studies this setting with simple-majority bargaining, complementing Cardona and Rubí-Barceló (2014), that consider the unanimity case. It is shown that reducing the majority requirement reduces the profitability of investments and, as a consequence, alleviates over-investment, which is predominant under unanimous bargaining. Nevertheless, simple majority reduces the aggregate surplus attained at the bargaining stage. Therefore, the relative performance of the bargaining rules is uncertain. We show how it evolves with respect to the size of consumption externalities. |
| Keywords: | Investments, multilateral bargaining, efficiency, externalities |
| JEL: | C78 D72 D62 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubi:deawps:85&r=dcm |
| By: | Kristof Gyod (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Consumption habits and the provision of services have undergone significant changes in the recent years. Platforms made way for new business models, which are often referred to as sharing economy or collaborative economy. Among the most valuable firms of the sharing economy is Airbnb, a platform for short-term accommodation rentals. Purpose of the article:The aim of the article is to analyse the characteristics of the Airbnb network in Warsaw, Poland. The paper investigates to what extent Airbnb may generate value from underused assets and whether it brings tourism todistricts previously less popular among visitors. Methodology/methods:The analysis is based on a unique dataset, which contains all Airbnb listings of Warsaw. The dataset has been constructed by the author using web-scraping technology. Descriptive statistics and kernel density estimation are implemented for the empirical analysis. Findings & Value added: The vast majority of the Airbnb network is focused on the short-term rental of entire homes and apartments in the city centre. Furthermore, the majority of listings belong to hosts, who offer more than one accommodation. The characteristics of the network suggest that the potential of Airbnb to generate value from underused assets is restricted: the primary activity of Airbnb decreases the number of properties on the long-term housing market. Comparing to traditional hotels, Airbnb is not significantly facilitating tourism in the outer districts of the city. The main contribution of the paper to the literature is the analysis of the entire population of Airbnb in a major city and the comparison with the traditional services sector. This is also the empirical analysis on the sharing economy and Airbnb in Poland. |
| Keywords: | sharing economy, two-sided markets, digital economy, tourism |
| JEL: | R12 D23 C81 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no33&r=dcm |
| By: | Angelos Dassios; You You Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study the joint law of Parisian time and hitting time of a drifted Brownian motion by using a three-state semi-Markov model, obtained through perturbation. We obtain a martingale, to which we can apply the optional sampling theorem and derive the double Laplace transform. This general result is applied to address problems in option pricing. We introduce a new option related to Parisian options, being triggered when the age of an excursion exceeds a certain time or/and a barrier is hit. We obtain an explicit expression for the Laplace transform of its fair price. |
| Keywords: | Parisian options; excursion time; three state semi-Markov model; Laplace transform |
| JEL: | G13 |
| Date: | 2016–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:64959&r=dcm |
| By: | Yosuke Jin (OECD); Aida Caldera Sánchez (OECD); Pilar Garcia Perea (OECD) |
| Abstract: | The Spanish economy is growing strongly, but there is a risk that many people are being left behind. Unemployment, especially among young people and the low-skilled, remains very high. About half of all the unemployed have been unemployed for over a year and one third for more than two years. A quarter of all those who are employed are on temporary jobs. Since the global economic crisis, poverty and inequality have increased. An immediate priority is to ensure adequate income support for those most in need. Getting more people into better jobs is crucial to raise living standards and to reduce poverty. In terms of structural policies, this requires continuing to improve activation policies, such as training and job placement, re-skilling and up-skilling the unemployed, preventing youth from leaving the education system under-qualified and better on-the-job-training. More can be done to foster the creation of better quality jobs by reducing barriers to hiring and addressing labour market duality. |
| Keywords: | education and skills,, income inequality, Job quality, labour market reform, poverty, social benefits |
| JEL: | E24 I20 I30 J30 J60 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1386-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Razak, Lutfi Abdul; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle – the mother of all puzzles – to uncover whether there exists a long-run relationship between domestic investment and domestic savings for the case of Malaysia. This is a long-standing empirical puzzle in macroeconomics which contradicts economic theory: for open economies, savings should be able to flow to where investment returns are most attractive, and hence there should be no correlation between investment and savings. One plausible reason put forth in the literature as an explanation for the puzzle is the reduction in trade frictions. As trade frictions are reduced, capital becomes more mobile, which in turn would mitigate the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Using an ARDL framework, we seek to investigate whether trade openness, as a proxy for reduced trade frictions, can help explain the long-run relationship between savings and investment. Although we discover mixed evidence with regards to the role of trade openness, we find that more importantly, the results tend to indicate the presence of possible structural break. Nevertheless, the results from our paper imply that policymakers can set the savings rate as an intermediate target to affect investment and real income. |
| Keywords: | Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, Malaysia, ARDL |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79407&r=dcm |
| By: | Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand (Banco de la República de Colombia); Luis F. Melo-Velandia (Banco de la República de Colombia); Oscar M. Valencia-Arana (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | We test current account sustainability based on the framework developed by Hakkio and Rush [1991] and Husted [1992] using a two-regime threshold vector error correction model. This methodology allows us to characterize short-run nonlinearities in the current account. We estimate the model for four Latin American economies: Chile, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. We find a long-run relationship between the current account components, which implies strong sustainability for Chile and Mexico and weak sustainability for Colombia and Brazil. For the first two countries, the predominant regime is associated with a current account surplus. In contrast, for Colombia and Brazil, the prevailing regime corresponds to a situation in which there is a long- run deficit. In general, the impulse response analysis shows that expenditure and income shocks have positive and significant responses in the predominant regime for both series. Classification JEL: C32, C52, F32 |
| Keywords: | Threshold vector error correction; current account sustainability; generalized impulse response function |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:987&r=dcm |
| By: | KASAHARA Hiroyuki; NISHIDA Mitsukuni; SUZUKI Michio |
| Abstract: | Aggregate productivity growth and the role of input reallocation have been hotly debated. Yet, it has received little attention as to how the measurement of reallocation relies on the commonly-made assumption that a production technology is uniform within an industry. To quantify the effects of unobserved heterogeneity in production technology, we estimate a random-coefficient Cobb-Douglas production function. We identify plant type from the distribution of the intermediate inputs to sales ratio using the first order condition without permanent distortions in intermediate input markets. The empirical analysis uses plant-level data from the Census of Manufacture. We find that accounting for unobserved heterogeneity lowers the volatility of technical efficiency and reallocation contributions. For knitted garments industry that features large dispersion in the intermediate input share, the average growth rate of the reallocation component over the 5-year period after the bubble burst in Japan is -0.5% with heterogeneity, while it is 0.4% without heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17083&r=dcm |
| By: | Slawomira Hajduk (Bialystok University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: An efficient and effectively functioning transport in the city is of great importance both for the people residing in its territory, as well as companies doing business there. However, apart from a positive impact, transport also carries many social costs including congestion, traffic accidentsand a negative influence on the natural environment. Consequently, urban transport is an increasingly important area of city management. Purpose of the article:The aim of this study is to analyze and to assess the transport technological effectivenessin selected Polish cities.The author received a ranking of cities and identified ways to improve the efficiency. Methodology:The test procedure used non-parametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis. Data for analysis were draw from the Local Data Bank of the Central Statistical Office defining expenses in the transport section as well as data on the condition and use of transport infrastructure. The calculations have been made using Frontier Analyst Application software. The performance results were determined using the BCC model. Findings& Value added:The main result is the author’s rankingof transport effectivenessin Polish cities. The analysis showed that urban transport characterized by a rather low technological effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | technological effectiveness, urban transport, city management. |
| JEL: | O18 R58 C10 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no35&r=dcm |
| By: | AUBIN-NURY de Malicorne, Dr. Christophe |
| Abstract: | Acknowledging that the growth forecast in France is nil or virtually non-existent and that it is also the case for the main European countries, EU governments will have to find tax revenues rapidly from their fellow citizens, which will exacerbate the tax burden, social inequalities and shortly, it will dramatically increase the risk of implosion of our societal organization. |
| Keywords: | Governance, Deficit, State, Europe, Crisis, Societal |
| JEL: | H3 |
| Date: | 2017–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79362&r=dcm |
| By: | Pleskachev, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ponomarev, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of the research study is assessment of the degree of import price rigidity with respect to exchange rate fluctuations and importing firm characteristics in Russian economy. Exchange rate pass-through in economy starts with the import prices. Empirical results show significant difference in import price rigidity depending on firms and goods characteristics. Using micro data on import to Russia from 2002 to 2015 allowed obtaining estimates that were not reported in the previous literature. This paper documents dependence of import price rigidity with respect to the exchange rate fluctuations form the degree of processing and firm characteristics. Import price rigidity is higher for manufactured products elaborately transformed, for goods, denominated in home currency, for goods with lower frequency of price changes and for the firms with higher market share. Empirical estimates based on micro data also allowed to document the dependence of import price rigidity from the economic sector and compare results with international literature. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031706&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Lewandowska (University of Information Technology and Management, 35–225 Rzeszow, ul. Sucharskiego 2, Poland); Mateusz Stopa (University of Information Technology and Management, 35–225 Rzeszow, ul. Sucharskiego 2, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Innovations are considered to be one of the most progressive determinants of socio-economic growth, also in the regional and local perspective (compare Petrariu, et al., 2013; Priede & Pereira 2013; Sternberg & Arndt, 2001). The high level of innovation has a positive impact on productivity at the firm level (business performance, see, e.g. Bhaskaran, 2006) and consequently also on the economic results at regional or national level (economic performance, see, e.g. DiPietro & Anoruo, 2006). The aim of this paper is to contribute to a greater understanding of the research on institutional support system for SMEs innovativeness in the Podkarpackie region. In analyzing this case, we raise the following two questions: (1) what are the types of innovation strategies of SMEs in Podkarpackie?; (2) what are the factors affecting innovation and potential barriers to further use of institutional support system aimed at the implementation of innovation in enterprises. The study was qualitative interviews (in-depth interviews - IDI) with key individuals in SME’s, R&D units, business environment institutions, regional and local authorities. Based on the opinion of entrepreneurs and others, evaluated programs and projects dedicated to innovation and identified barriers encountered by entrepreneurs limiting the implementation of innovation. Made in this way to assess the effectiveness of institutional support system. The results of our research show that institutional support system mitigate negative consequences of peripheral localization of the enterprises, where specific innovation strategy has no influence on SMEs assessment of innovation effectiveness. The innovation is too costly and SMEs are too weak in peripheral region, therefore there is great need for reasonable and flexible institutional support system. However, peripheral situation influences this institutional system itself, strengthening the mechanisms of self-cenzorship. |
| Keywords: | innovation; innovation strategies; SMEs; institutional support system |
| JEL: | L25 O12 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no60&r=dcm |
| By: | Francesco Caravelli; Marco Bardoscia; Fabio Caccioli |
| Abstract: | We propose a continuum model of percolation in two dimensions for overlapping disks with spin. In this model the existence of bonds is determined by the distance between the centers of the disks, and by the scalar product of the (randomly) directed spin with the direction of the vector connecting the centers of neighboring disks. The direction of a single spin is controlled by a "temperature", representing the amount of polarization of the spins in the direction of an external field. Our model is inspired by biological neuronal networks and aims to characterize their topological properties when axonal guidance plays a major role. We numerically study the phase diagram of the model observing the emergence of a giant strongly connected component, representing the portion of neurons that are causally connected. We provide strong evidence that the critical exponents depend on the temperature. |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2016–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:69805&r=dcm |
| By: | Marcin Zemigala (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Spoleczna odpowiedzialnosc (SR – social responsibility) jest koncepcja zarzadzania, ktora ksztaltuje sie podobnie do zarzadzania jakoscia czy zarzadzania srodowiskowego. Jak kazda koncepcja posiada portfel narzedzi, ktore mozna wdrazac w organizacjach majacych potrzebe posluzenia sie dana koncepcja w swoich dzialaniach. W chwili obecnej katalog narzedzi SR stale sie rozrasta i ulega kolejnym modyfikacjom. Purpose of the article: Celem artykulu jest analiza zastosowania znormalizowanych narzedzi SR. Najpierw przyblizono istote SR oraz scharakteryzowano zestaw znormalizowanych narzedzi. Stan ich zastosowania poddano analizom empirycznym. Methodology/methods: Postawiono dwa pytania badawcze: Jak wyglada zastosowanie standardow SR na swiecie wedlug aktualnych danych? Jak wyglada zastosowanie standardow SR w poszczegolnych krajach oraz w Polsce wedlug aktualnych danych?Do odpowiedzi na powyzsze pytania posluzono sie oficjalnym danymi pochodzacymi od organizacji formalnie odpowiedzialnych za analizowane standardy, uznano je za wiarygodne i kompletne. Z uwagi na to, ze dane pochodza z roznych zrodel analizy maja charakter pogladowy. W analizach uwzgledniono ISO 14001, SA 8000, AA 1000AS i G4, nie uwzgledniono ISO 26000 ze wzgledu na charakter normy (nie przeznaczona do certyfikacji) i w zwiazku z tym brak odnosnych danych. Findings: Najczesciej stosowanym standardem SR jest ISO 14001, kolejne standardy sa juz duzo rzadziej stosowane. Z jednej strony to pocieszajace, ze dobrowolna norma z zakresu ochrony srodowiska jest relatywnie czesto stosowana, z drugiej jednak dziwi fakt, ze narzedzia z innych zakresow tematycznych (warunki pracy, raportowanie zrownowazonego rozwoju i stosunki z interesariuszami) maja znikome zastosowanie. Jezeli chodzi o zastosowanie znormalizowanych narzedzi SR w roznych krajach to widac silna tendencje wsrod krajow spoza rozwinietych i stabilnych gospodarek do stosowanie analizowanych narzedzi, swiadczy to o ich wiekszej motywacji do poprawy konkurencyjnosci z wykorzystaniem takze koncepcji SR. Niestety w Polsce taka tendencja nie istnieje a analizowane standardy praktycznie nie sa stosowane, pewnym wyjatkiem jest ISO 14001. |
| Keywords: | spoleczna odpowiedzialnosc; narzedzia spolecznej odpowiedzialnosci; zastosowanie spolecznej odpowiedzialnosci |
| JEL: | M14 M16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no31&r=dcm |
| By: | Monika Paradowska (University of Opole, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Cycling is considered one of the most required ways of commuting, because it generates multiple benefits and low levels of external costs of transport. Many cities try to increase the share of cycling in the modal split by the way of various interventions. Effects of these efforts are different, depending on levels of rivalry and excludability of goods provided, what is influencing the attractiveness of cycling. Purpose of the article: The main aim of the paper is (i) to describe key elements of and some solutions for cycling systems in urban areas with focus on two characteristics of goods: rivalry and exclusion, and (ii) to examine, how different levels of rivalry and exclusion influence the attractiveness of cycling and contribute to required effects of cycling policy. Methodology/methods: The paper is based on the theory of private and public goods, as well as on some elements of the New Institutional Economics. The author uses secondary data and research results presented in scientific papers available in the Web of Science Database and Google Scholar, and other information available in online documents. Findings & Value added: A change in levels of rivalry and excludability can lead to an increased attractiveness of cycling. Further research on levels of rivalry and excludability in terms of the complexity of transport systems can contribute to a better understanding of transport behaviour, creating adequate solutions and predicting future effects. |
| Keywords: | rivalry, excludability, cycling, transport demands, urban transport systems |
| JEL: | Q01 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no87&r=dcm |
| By: | Sergej Vojtovic (University of Alexander Dubchek in Trencin, Slovakia); M?gdaléna Tupá (University of Alexander Dubchek in Trencin, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Austria and low unemployment rate, higher salaries, more vacancies in comparison to the Slovak Republic together with the system of state benefits and geographical proximity have caused increased interest of Slovaks in work in the given country. The open asylum politics of Austria and Germany is attractive to immigrants from the third-world countries. Based on the analyses of development of work force emigration from the Slovak Republic and immigration to Austria, the study identifies migration trends in both countries. Calculations of migration benefits from the arrival of work force from the Central and East European countries and calculations of losses and benefits from the migration from the third-world countries aim at explaining the development of economical, social and demographic parameters in the country. Mathematic calculations of losses and benefits from migrations for a country and society are also introduced. These are based on the statistical data available from Eurostat, WTO, Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Statistic Austria, Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs and Family, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and data acquired from empirical surveys published in scientific publications. The study uses general scientific methods of induction, deduction, scientific abstraction and comparison, analysis and synthesis of selected facts, phenomena and processes. To calculate the data acquired, statistical and mathematical methods and calculations were implemented. The result of the experiment is to create a model approach to the evaluation of economic benefits and losses from work force migration from the Central and East European countries and, at the same time, immigration from the third-world countries. It may be stated that work force migration from Central and East Europe is beneficial for Austria. The study also shows expenses on immigrants while asylum procedures are taking place followed by expenses on their integration into the labor market and society. |
| Keywords: | migration, migration management, labour migration, work force, target country, source country |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no134&r=dcm |
| By: | Levin, Mark (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Standard economic theory answers general questions about efficient distribution, balance and well-being. But to solve real problems, refinements and clarifications are needed. For example, the supply and demand model predicts where equilibrium will be established, but does not explain the market's behavior in the period prior to its establishment, that is, while the price does not balance the amount of demand and supply. In reality, in many situations, prices do not have absolute flexibility, and therefore, in short-term, they can not instantly change in such a way to balance supply and demand. This leads to a deficit of some goods and an excess of other goods. Such disequilibrium causes inefficiency of current market conditions, which, in turn, requires additional adjustments. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041709&r=dcm |
| By: | Adrien Auclert |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the role of redistribution in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to consumption. Three channels affect aggregate spending when winners and losers have different marginal propensities to consume: an earnings heterogeneity channel from unequal income gains, a Fisher channel from unexpected inflation, and an interest rate exposure channel from real interest rate changes. Sufficient statistics from Italian and U.S. data suggest that all three channels are likely to amplify the effects of monetary policy. A standard incomplete markets model can deliver the empirical magnitudes if assets have plausibly high durations but a counterfactual degree of inflation indexation. |
| JEL: | D31 D52 E21 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23451&r=dcm |
| By: | Michal Andrle; Miroslav Plasil |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces "system priors" into Bayesian analysis of econometric time series and provides a simple and illustrative application. Unlike priors on individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically meaningful priors about model properties that determine the overall behavior of the model. The generality of system priors is illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that its dynamics comes mostly from business-cycle frequencies. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian analysis, system priors, time series |
| JEL: | C11 C18 C22 C51 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2017/01&r=dcm |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the convergence of public transport and innovative mobility solutions, such as ride services, car- and bicycle-sharing, app-enabled on-demand micro-bus services, and platforms that connect app-using travelers and drivers. It examines the role of public authorities in ensuring this convergence supports commercial innovation as well as public policy objectives and identifies principles to guide partnerships between innovative mobility services and public transport operators. The work for this report was carried out in the context of a project initiated and funded by the International Transport Forum's Corporate Partnership Board (CPB). CPB projects are designed to enrich policy discussion with a business perspective. Led by the ITF, work is carried out in a collaborative fashion in working groups consisting of CPB member companies, external experts and ITF staff. |
| Date: | 2017–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:34-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This work paper is devoted to the study of monetary transmission mechanisms. The first section of the paper is devoted to the review of theoretical approaches to the analysis of monetary transmission and describes various traditional and credit channels, the information channel is also discussed in this section. The second section examines the experience of empirical research of monetary transmission on Russian data. The third section is devoted to the estimation of the transmission channels in Russia considering the transition of the Bank of Russia to the inflation targeting regime. VAR and FAVAR models are used for the estimation. The conclusions from the empirical part of the work paper are made in the fourth section, including the effectiveness of the interest rate channel, q-Tobin channel and the deposit channel. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041703&r=dcm |
| By: | Grant Jacobsen (University of Oregon) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence on the distributional effects of energy extraction by examining the recent U.S. energy boom. The boom increased local wage rates in almost every major occupational category. The increase occurred regardless of whether the occupation experienced a corresponding change in employment, suggesting a more competitive labor market that benefited local workers. Local housing values and rental prices both increased, thereby benefiting landowners. For renters, the increase in prices was completely offset by a contemporaneous increase in income. The results indicate that bans on drilling have negative monetary consequences for a large share of local residents. |
| Keywords: | NAFTA, oil, natural gas, hydraulic fracturing, fracking, resource extraction, labor market effects, resource curse, Dutch disease, wage rates, housing values, rental prices |
| JEL: | J23 Q33 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:17-271&r=dcm |
| By: | Mallick, Debdulal |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the empirical relationship between volatility and long-run growth, but the key contribution lies in decomposing growth volatility into its business-cycle and trend components. This volatility decomposition also accounts for enormous heterogeneity among countries in terms of their long-run growth trajectories. We identify a negative effect of trend volatility, which we refer to as long-run volatility, on growth, but no effect of business-cycle volatility. However, if long-run volatility is omitted, there would be a spurious (negative) effect of business-cycle volatility. Our results draw attention to a crucial question about different volatility measures and their implications in macroeconomic analyses. |
| Keywords: | Growth; Business cycles; Volatility; Volatility persistence; Frequency |
| JEL: | E32 F44 O11 O40 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79397&r=dcm |
| By: | François Bareille; Florence Bonnet-Beaugrand; Sabine Duvaleix-Treguer |
| Abstract: | Members’ commitment lessens when agricultural cooperatives grow larger. Their organization becomes more complex and their membership more heterogeneous, which threatens their sustainability and leads them to implement specific mechanisms for collective decisions. We explore how the alignment of objectives between a multi-purpose cooperative and its members influences member commitment. We estimate a multinomial probit model on a cross-section sample of 3,205 members from a large agricultural cooperative in France. We assess the determinants of member commitment through four factors: the offer of new agricultural practices, the availability of outlets and supplies to members, the farm distance to the cooperative headquarters and the farm governance. We show that the adoption of new agricultural practices has a small but significant effect. The availability of outlets and supplies has the strongest effect on the economic involvement of the farmers. Other determinants, such as farm governance or geographical distance to the cooperative headquarters, also reinforce member commitment. |
| Keywords: | agricultural cooperatives, member commitment, farm innovation, economic involvement |
| JEL: | Q13 C35 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rae:wpaper:17-02&r=dcm |
| By: | Gala, Paulo; Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de; Freitas, Elton |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to apply big-data and scale-free complex network techniques to the study of world trade, with a specific focus on the investigation of ECLA and structuralist ideas. A secondary objective is to illustrate the potentialities of the use of the new science of complex networks in economics, in what has been recently referred to as an econophysics research agenda. We work with a trade network of 101 countries and 762 products (SITC-4) which generated 1,756,224 trade links in 2013. The empirical results based on network analysis and computational methods reported here point in the direction of what ECLA economists used to argue; countries with higher income per capita concentrate in producing and exporting manufactured and complex goods at the center of the trade network; countries with lower income per capita specialize in producing and exporting non-complex commodities at the network’s periphery. |
| Date: | 2017–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:449&r=dcm |
| By: | Joanna Luczak (University of Social Sciences in Lodz) |
| Abstract: | Human capital is the driving force of an organization that has a significant impact on its development and effective operation. The success of the organization depends to a great extent on its social potential. Successful recruitment ensures that the best employees ensure high quality work, which respectively translates into organizational development and competitiveness (Oleksyn 2010, pp. 34-36). The development of the organization is based on knowledge acquisition, skills and raising qualifications by its members. The aim of the paper is to analyze the conditionings related to the management of the police organizational units, which influence the appropriate recruitment of police officers for particular positions. The publication also attempts to investigate the importance of appropriate recruitment for the effectiveness of actions taken by police officers. The article presents issues exemplifying the analysis of human resource management in the field of human resource policy playing an important role in Police. The empirical part of the article was based on an analysis of the subject literature and police internal materials, but also on the basis of participant observation and expert interview. The paper presents an analysis of the recruitment process of police officers for vacant posts in Police units of the Lodz Region, introduced by the Human Resource Policy Concept. Although the Police was established to protect citizens’ security and public order, its development and effective functioning are needed to further serve society. In order to do this, it is indispensable to recruit and employ proper and competent workers. Therefore, the recruitment and selection process is so significant. |
| Keywords: | public management; human resource management; police, recruitment; selection |
| JEL: | D73 D78 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no65&r=dcm |
| By: | Wasniewski, Krzysztof |
| Abstract: | This article explores the issue of observable instability in financial markets interpreted as a long-term process of adaptation to demand for money, which, in turn, is based on the expected depreciation of fixed assets. Exploration is based on verifying empirically the hypothesis that the velocity of money is significantly, negatively correlated with the pace of technological change. The purpose of exploration is to assess the well-founded of policies, which use financial and monetary tools, rather than the straightforwardly fiscal ones, to stimulate technological change. Empirical research suggests that aggregate depreciation of fixed assets is a significant factor inducing slower a circulation of money. |
| Keywords: | money, financial markets, technological change |
| JEL: | E1 E3 |
| Date: | 2017–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79426&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomas Meluzín (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); Marek Zinecker (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); doubravsky@fbm.vutbr.cz (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); Mirko Dohnal (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | n epidemiology, qualitative models have been developed and applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases since the 1920s. A version of these models is based on the rumour propagation. The main idea behind these models is that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information are analogous phenomena. Recently, this idea has been used in several areas to analyse how a rumour affects the financial industry. The success of going public depends on many aspects including the predictability and visibility of the initial public offering candidate, enormous growth potential and no signals of a failure. However, the wide public of investors might be reached by rumours affecting significantly the success of initial public offerings. This paper examines the impact of rumours on success or failure of initial public offerings. Rumours might significantly affect the decision-making of uninformed investors while considering investments in newly issued shares and thus are an important phenomenon within going public procedures. The ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) model is applied to study the impact of rumours on initial public offering success or failure. We assume that the information asymmetry is one of the most important reasons for spreading rumours. A case study experiment is conducted in order to validate the model. Our analysis of spreading rumours suggests that if there is a qualitative model consisting of a set of scenarios and a transitional graph, the decision makers may predict the development of ignorants (I), spreaders (S) and stiflers (R) in time. In such a case, no variant is overlooked, i.e. the model covers all possible changes of the situation in time. Supposing that rumours are under control of the issuing company, i.e. if detected in a timely manner and effective actions are introduced by decision makers, any reputational damages and thus initial public offering failure can be averted. |
| Keywords: | initial public offering; IPO; rumours; qualitative models; rumour spreading approach |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G14 G23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no79&r=dcm |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the main results, consequences and risks of the reforms carried out in recent years in Russian higher education. In particular, the consequences and risks of the introduction of the USE for the development of regional HEIs, the problems associated with monitoring the effectiveness of HEIs and the transition to higher education for normative per capita financing are analyzed. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041732&r=dcm |
| By: | Gabueva, Larisa (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Competition in the field of health care should not only be Manufacturers of medical services of all forms of ownership, but, above all Patients making conscious choice of institutions for treatment and Prevention of health problems. State control can create all conditions for a safe and Choice by a citizen of a doctor, institution, regardless of which The program is serviced by a person: compulsory insurance, VMI (Voluntary medical insurance) or for his own by direct payment of services in a medical organization under a contract. This process, in our opinion, will contribute to the growth of the "Index Openness "of medical organizations, a correct evaluation of the results of their Activities. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021715&r=dcm |
| By: | J. Paul Dunne (School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Nicholas Masiyandima (School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether bilateral foreign direct investment between a technology leader country and follower countries has technology and productivity externalities that speed up income convergence among the countries. The study is based the SADC region, in which South Africa is identified as both the technology leader and a major source of FDI for the other 14 developing countries in the region. Using countries’ per capita incomes time series over a period spanning from 1980 to 2011, the results of the study show that bilateral FDI between South Africa and countries in the region fosters income convergence in the region. Countries that have higher FDI stocks from South Africa exhibit higher rates of convergence towards both the regional average per capita income and South Africa’s per capita income, than those that host less FDI stocks. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctn:dpaper:2017-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Cantillo, Miguel |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing framework that allows for investor aggregation, and assumes a log-normally distributed aggregate endowment growth. This framework allows me to derive the equilibrium risk free rate, the expected market return, and expected returns for individual securities. To test how reasonable the results are, I use data of several developed economies from Campbell (2003, 2017) to find a median value of relative risk aversion of 1.57, and a time preference rate of 4.58%. The framework allows me to estimate a version of the CAPM and a multi-period pricing model. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing, General Equilibrium, CAPM, Equity Premium Puzzle |
| JEL: | D53 E21 G12 G13 G32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79357&r=dcm |
| By: | Hasson, Ashwaq; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper undertakes to investigate the interplay between economic growth, energy consumption, electricity consumption, carbon emission and trade by employing recent South African trade and energy data during the period from 1971 to 2013. South Africa is used as a case study given its status as perhaps the most developed country in the African continent with a very high energy consumption as well as its unique position in its current history where it relies on the somewhat antiquated coal industry to provide most of its energy as well as being one of its main imports. The effect of trade openness on environmental conditions has spawned a great deal of controversy in the current energy economics literature. Although research on the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth are quite prevalent, no study to our knowledge specifically addresses the role that South Africa’s trade plays in this context. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration has been used to test the long run relationship among the variables, while short run dynamics has been investigated by applying error correction method (ECM). The main finding of interest in this paper is that a positive relationship exists between energy consumption and economic growth. However, it seems the results suggest that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that trade openness and electricity are leading variables, while the rest are lagging. Furthermore, our results demonstrate trade reduces overall pollutions caused by carbon emission, thus it improves environmental quality by contracting the growth of energy pollutants. Our empirical results are consistent with the existence of environmental Kuznets curve. It is, thus, imperative for policymakers to take better care of these two exogenous variables that will have a profound effect on the country’s economy as a whole. The policymakers should make decision on GDP based on trade openness because changes in trade openness will have impact on GDP, as trade is a leading variable. |
| Keywords: | GDP, Energy consumption, Trade openness, EKC, Carbon Emission, South Africa |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79424&r=dcm |
| By: | Susan Zief; Theresa Schulte |
| Abstract: | This issue brief documents the implementation infrastructure that four states—California, Maine, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina—developed to support implementation of their Personal Responsibility Education Program (PREP)-funded evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention programs. |
| Keywords: | teen, pregnancy, prevention, PREP, evidence-based programs |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:dbd46b3b41e944d79515c629b644f1a3&r=dcm |
| By: | Maryam Farboodi; Laura Veldkamp |
| Abstract: | In most sectors, technological progress boosts efficiency. But financial technology and the associated data-intensive trading strategies have been blamed for market inefficiency. A key cause for concern is that better technology might induce traders to extract other's information from order flow data mining, rather than produce information themselves. Defenders of these new trading strategies argue that they provide liquidity by identifying uninformed orders and taking the other side of their trades. We adopt the lens of long-run growth to understand how improvements in financial technology shape information choices, trading strategies and market efficiency, as measured by price informativeness and market liquidity. We find that unbiased technological change can explain a market-wide shift in data collection and trading strategies. But our findings also cast doubt on common wisdom. First, although extracting information from order flow does crowd out production of fundamental information, this does not compromise price informativeness. Second, although taking the opposite side of uninformed trades is typically called "providing liquidity," the rise of such trading strategies does not necessarily improve liquidity in the market as a whole. |
| JEL: | E2 G14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23457&r=dcm |
| By: | Izryadnova, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The current spatial landscape of socio-economic development is highly heterogeneous and organically includes the characteristics associated with the development of interregional cooperation, competition, with the involvement of regions in the world economy. The main reason for the economic inequality of the regions is the concentration of economic activity in the territories which have competitive advantages and are determined by such factors as availability of natural resources, favorable geographical location, agglomeration effect, the level of human capital, institutional environment. Comparative analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators allows us to identify the general and specific features of the development of the productive, infrastructural and social potential of individual territories and formulate principles for increasing the efficiency of their activities. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041713&r=dcm |
| By: | Maleva, Tatyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Avraamova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Burdyak, Alexandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Grishina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tsatsura, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Florinskaya, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of a comprehensive assessment of the current stage of social development, based on monitoring of the socio-economic status and wealth of the population in Russia in the period from January 2015 to May 2016 The changes in the key macroeconomic indicators are investigated, the analysis of changes in prices and retail trade is made, the situation in the labor market and migration is considered. Using the tools of statistical analysis and sociological monitoring, the popular representations of the the scale of the crisis and the extent of its impact on the social well-being, as well as a choice of adaptive behavior strategies were investigated. Special attention is paid to changes in the socio-economic situation in the regions, including regional systems of social protection. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021712&r=dcm |
| By: | Huang, Yanghua (Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Salike, Nimesh (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Yin, Zhifeng (School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics); Zeng, Douglas Zhihua (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | In contrast to previous papers, where in these two important aspects of innovation were delved separately, this paper analyses the effects in unison by using the most comprehensive data on Chinese enterprises- World Bank China Enterprise Survey (2012). Our dependent variables are innovation performance measured in various dimensions: the probabilities of R&D expenditure, staff training, product innovation, process innovation and management innovation. Our key variables of interest are ownership based on largest share (SOE, private and foreign) and firm size based on the number of employees. The analysis is based on panel data approach with different dimensions added (city, industry fixed) and the interaction of ownership and size variables. Major findings suggest that SOEs and domestic private enterprises are much alike in innovation participation, but different in innovation diversification that leads to ownership specific innovative advantage. Foreign enterprises are innovative in most of the innovation measurements. Size if positively correlated to innovation. We also find that as the size of enterprise increases, ownership specific innovative advantage is subject to changeable. That implies ownership and size should be examined jointly rather than separately. The result also shows the effects of ownership and size on innovations are uneven geographically and industrially. |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-06&r=dcm |
| By: | Libman, Alexander; Vinokurov, Evgeny |
| Abstract: | The report presents the results of the EDB Centre for Integration Studies’ ongoing project “Regional Integration in the World.” One of the aims of this project is comprehensive analysis of regional integration organizations in the world and later application of the findings in facilitating the processes of Eurasian integration. The report Regional Organizations: Typology and Development Paths provides the key conclusions and recommendations which are based on a detailed review of sixty organizations. |
| Keywords: | regional organizations, regional integration projects, economic development, goals of regional organizations, typology of regional organizations |
| JEL: | F15 F53 F63 |
| Date: | 2016–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79383&r=dcm |
| By: | Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. |
| Abstract: | We assess whether "undue optimism" (Pigou) contributes to business cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are perceived changes in productivity which do not actually materialize. We develop a new strategy to identify optimism shocks in a VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a negative nowcast error, but simultaneously a positive short-run output response. |
| Keywords: | undue optimism,optimism shocks,noise shocks,animal spirits,business cycles,nowcast errors,VAR |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:112017&r=dcm |
| By: | Papageorgiou, Chris; Perez-Sebastian, Fidel; Spatafora, Nikola |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the contribution of product quality upgrading in the process of export diversification. To do this, the paper builds a multisector model following Eaton and Kortum (2002) in which product quality is incorporated as a key feature. The model is then calibrated to generate predictions about the degree of export diversification in a number of East Asian countries. It is shown that quality upgrading is a key factor to understand the changes in the degree of export diversification in the majority of countries in our sample. |
| Keywords: | export diversification, product quality, international trade, structural transformation. |
| JEL: | F10 O14 O40 |
| Date: | 2016–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79400&r=dcm |
| By: | Agnieszka Rzepka (Lublin University of Technology); Andrzej J. Olak (The BronislawMarkiewicz State Higher School of Technology and Economics in Jaroslaw, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Each organization faces the challenge of operating in an environment that is unpredictable and turbulent. Emergence of business era caused that change had become a key feature that determines the economic environment of an enterprise. Market environment forces companies to seek strategic orientation that would allow them to use market opportunities and come to grips with growing customer demands. These goals can only be achieved by an organization that bears the hallmarks of agility. The purpose of this article is to analyze relationships between obtaining an ability to be innovative and agility attributes of an organization. The problem was analyzed on the basis of empirical research of an international character. The article points out that adopting by a company agility attributes translates into a better competitive position and a higher level of innovation. Innovation in an enterprise constitute an impulse to take new challenges, which perfectly fits into the paradigm of the organization’s agility. In turn, through innovation, companies become agile. The presented research confirms that there is a connection between having agility attributes by a company and obtaining by it a high level of innovation. Many authors also specify important role of IT system in introducing product innovations and innovation processes |
| Keywords: | innovation, agile, SME |
| JEL: | O30 M21 P42 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no104&r=dcm |
| By: | Alexeev, Michael (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mamedov, Arseny (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Fomina, Evgenia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Deryugin, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper considers methodological approaches to assessing the impact of interbudgetary regulation instruments on the economic development of regions, the impact of the main characteristics of interbudgetary relations at the national level and the regional level on the indicators of the economic development of regions. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031717&r=dcm |
| By: | Barinova, Vera (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lanshina, Tatiyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Recently, in connection with the beginning of the development of renewable energy sources in Russia, and also in connection with the emergence of new technological and economic data on renewable energy, a need to update the available estimates of the technical and economic potential of renewable energy sources arises. In this paper, the potential of solar and wind energy - currently the most developed renewable energy sectors - has been selected for assessment. This work is aimed at summarizing the methodological approaches to calculating the gross, technical and economic potential of solar and wind energy and conducting relevant assessments. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041714&r=dcm |
| By: | Sener Salci (Department of Economics, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.) |
| Abstract: | The analytical challenges in evaluating the impacts of transmission line investments have vexed practitioners and electricity market regulators. The purpose of this study is to provide a guideline for improving the accuracy and predictability of the impacts of electricity rehabilitation projects. The subject is too broad to address completely here. The proposed guideline is suitable for evaluations of such project implemented in a broken electricity network. In such case, the demand for electricity is deterred, the supply of the electricity is unreliable, and the system is far away from its least-cost optimum production/consumption level. The guideline does not rebut the catalog of existing evaluation models or approaches. The guideline utilizes them for a reasonable ex-ante assessment to identify “good” projects that satisfy the economic and public objectives of the economy. An integrated cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework is recommended to appraise such projects along with allocating the impacts to stakeholders in a manner that is commensurate with the net benefits they receive. Such an integrated analysis is much more than a set of procedures for estimating the expected net present values or rates of return of the project. |
| Keywords: | Electricity, Transmission Line, Rehabilitation Investment, Reliability, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Haiti |
| JEL: | D61 H43 L94 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:306&r=dcm |
| By: | Piyanuch Chaipornkaew (Dhurakij Pundit University, Thailand); Takorn Prexawanprasut (Dhurakij Pundit University, Thailand); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; University of Sydney Business School, Australia; Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands;Complutense University of Madrid, Spain; Yokohama National University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Email is one of the most powerful tools for communication. Many businesses use email as the main channel for communication, so it is possible that substantial data are included in email content. In order to help businesses grow faster, a workflow management system may be required. The data gathered from email content might be a robust source for a workflow management system. This research proposes an email extraction system to extract data from any incoming emails into suitable database fields. The database, which is created by the program, has been planned for the implementation of a workflow management system. The research is presented in three phases: (1) define suitable criteria to extract data; (2) implement a program to extract data, and store them in a database; and (3) implement a program for validating data in a database. Four criteria are applied for an email extraction system. The first criterion is to select contact information at the end of the email content; the second criterion is to select specified keywords, such as tel, email, and mobile; the third criterion is to select unique names, which start with a capital letter, such as the names of people, places, and corporates; the fourth criterion is to select special texts, such as Co. Ltd, .com, and www. The empirical results suggest that when all four criteria are considered, the accuracy of a program and percentage of blank fields are at an acceptable level compared with the results from other criteria. When four criteria are applied to extract 7,340 emails in English, the accuracy of this experiment is approximately 68.66%, while the percentage of blank fields in a database is approximately 68.05. The database created by the experiment can be applied in a workflow management system. |
| Keywords: | Business operations; startup business; import/export industry; email; business data; workflow management system; business transactions; migrating; email extraction system |
| JEL: | J24 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170048&r=dcm |
| By: | Jurgita Bruneckiene (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania); Jolita Sinkiene (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania); Egle Gaule (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania); Ineta Zykiene (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | Economic vitality of community is one of the main factors and conditions for successful urban development. The article present the theoretical and empirical analysis of the concept of economic vitality of urban community in the country of small economy. The objective of the paper is to identify the challenges and factors of improving the economic vitality of community in cities of a country with a small economy and to develop the strategic recommendations and measures for strengthening the economic vitality of the community. Methods used: literature studies, document analysis, statistical data analysis, expert interview, survey, case analysis, Space Syntax analysis. The research showed that the communities in the country of small economy are still not entrepreneur and economically vital; there’s a lack of cooperation cultural and experience among of communities and businesses; there are favorable conditions to promote community (economic) vitality. Strategies to encourage and facilitate business and community cooperation at the local government level are necessary. Communities and companies are ready to cooperate together, but the cooperation based on shared value is not grown up yet. The article concludes with recommendations for promotion the vitality of communities and cooperation with business. |
| Keywords: | economic vitality, community, cities, urban economic development |
| JEL: | R11 P32 P35 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no113&r=dcm |
| By: | Roberto Marfè |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits information from the variance-ratios of macroeconomic variables to infer about the short and long-run components of dividend risk and ination risk. While labor rigidity shifts dividend risk towards the short horizon, it also reveals {by means of labor-share variation{ the component of ination risk which is correlated with fundamentals. A simple general equilibrium model with labor rigidity can explain how ination interacts with the real growth and the labor-share, as well as many patterns of the term-structures of real and nominal bond yields. The model is robust to many properties of equity returns. |
| Keywords: | labor rigidity, ination, term-structure, interest rates, equilibrium asset pricing |
| JEL: | D51 E21 G12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:461&r=dcm |
| By: | Kateryna Kononova; Anton Dek |
| Abstract: | The paper proposes a method of financial time series forecasting taking into account the semantics of news. For the semantic analysis of financial news the sampling of negative and positive words in economic sense was formed based on Loughran McDonald Master Dictionary. The sampling included the words with high frequency of occurrence in the news of financial markets. For single-root words it has been left only common part that allows covering few words for one request. Neural networks were chosen for modeling and forecasting. To automate the process of extracting information from the economic news a script was developed in the MATLAB Simulink programming environment, which is based on the generated sampling of positive and negative words. Experimental studies with different architectures of neural networks showed a high adequacy of constructed models and confirmed the feasibility of using information from news feeds to predict the stock prices. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.08545&r=dcm |
| By: | Ronchi, Maddalena; di Mauro, Filippo |
| Abstract: | The paper aims at investigating to what extent wage negotiation set-ups have shaped up firms’ response to the Great Recession, taking a firm-level cross-country perspective. We contribute to the literature by building a new micro-distributed database which merges data related to wage bargaining institutions (Wage Dynamic Network, WDN) with data on firm productivity and other relevant firm characteristics (CompNet). We use the database to study how firms reacted to the Great Recession in terms of variation in profits, wages, and employment. The paper shows that, in line with the theoretical predictions, centralized bargaining systems – as opposed to decentralized/firm level based ones – were accompanied by stronger downward wage rigidity, as well as cuts in employment and profits. |
| Keywords: | productivity,wage bargaining,firm level analysis,global financial crisis |
| JEL: | D22 D61 J30 J50 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhcom:12017&r=dcm |
| By: | Michael A. Clemens; Jennifer Hunt |
| Abstract: | An influential strand of research has tested for the effects of immigration on natives’ wages and employment using exogenous refugee supply shocks as natural experiments. Several studies have reached conflicting conclusions about the effects of noted refugee waves such as the Mariel Boatlift in Miami and post-Soviet refugees to Israel. We show that conflicting findings on the effects of the Mariel Boatlift can be explained by a sudden change in the race composition of the Current Population Survey extracts in 1980, specific to Miami but unrelated to the Boatlift. We also show that conflicting findings on the labor-market effects of other important refugee waves can be produced by spurious correlation between the instrument and the endogenous variable introduced by applying a common divisor to both. As a whole, the evidence from refugee waves reinforces the existing consensus that the impact of immigration on average native-born workers is small, and fails to substantiate claims of large detrimental impacts on workers with less than high school. |
| JEL: | C36 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23433&r=dcm |
| By: | Vandenberghe, Vincent |
| Abstract: | Imagine an impoverished region that becomes eligible for a generous transfer programme (the treatment). Imagine difference-in-differences analysis (DiD)-a before-and-after comparison of the income-level handicap-shows that the handicap has risen. Most observers would conclude to the policy's inefficiency. The point made in this paper is that second thoughts are needed, because DiD rests heavily on the validity of a key assumption: parallel paths in the absence of treatment. What is more, when several pre-treatment periods are available in the data, it can easily be assessed and, if necessary, abandoned in favour of more relevant ones. |
| Keywords: | treatment-effect analysis,difference-in-differences models,EU convergence policy |
| JEL: | C21 R11 R15 O52 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201723&r=dcm |
| By: | Toshiaki Iizuka; Katsuhiko Nishiyama; Brian Chen; Karen Eggleston |
| Abstract: | Using unique individual-level panel data, we investigate whether preventive medical care triggered by health checkups is worth the cost. We exploit the fact that biomarkers just below and above a threshold may be viewed as random. We find that people respond to health signals and increase physician visits. However, we find no evidence that additional care is cost effective. For the “borderline type” (“pre-diabetes”) threshold for diabetes, medical care utilization increases but neither physical measures nor predicted risks of mortality or serious complications improve. For efficient use of medical resources, cost effectiveness of preventive care must be carefully examined. |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23413&r=dcm |
| By: | Benito Arruñada |
| Abstract: | Inspired by comments made by Allen (2017), Lueck (2017), Ménard (2017) and Smith (2017), this response clarifies and deepens the analysis in Arruñada (2017a). Its main argument is that to deal with the complexity of property we must abstract secondary elements, such as the physical dimensions of some types of assets, and focus on the interaction between transactions. This sequential-exchange framework captures the main problem of property in the current environment of impersonal markets. It also provides criteria to compare private and public ordering, as well as to organize public solutions that enable new forms of private ordering. The analysis applies the lessons in Coase (1960) to property by not only comparing realities but also maintaining his separate treatment of the definition of property rights and transaction costs. However, it replaces his contractual, single-exchange, framework for one in which contracts interact, causing exchange externalities. |
| Keywords: | property rights, externalities, enforcement, transaction costs, public ordering, private ordering, impersonal exchange. |
| JEL: | D23 K11 K12 G38 H41 O17 P48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1570&r=dcm |
| By: | Mashfiqur R. Khan; Matthew S. Rutledge; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher |
| Abstract: | Social Security provides higher replacement rates to disability insurance beneficiaries than retired beneficiaries. This fact reflects two factors: 1) Disability Insurance (SSDI) beneficiaries have lower career earnings, and Social Security benefits are progressive; and 2) SSDI benefits are not reduced for claiming early. This project uses the 1992-2010 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked to Social Security Administration earnings records to decompose the differences between the Social Security replacement rates for retired worker and SSDI beneficiaries into these two factors. The project also examines how the total replacement rate – which accounts for other sources of income in addition to Social Security – differs between retirees and SSDI beneficiaries to capture the difference in overall retirement security between the two groups. The results indicate that about half of the 10-percentage-point advantage in Social Security replacement rates for SSDI beneficiaries is due to the actuarial adjustment applied to retirement benefits, implying that career earnings are not that different between retired workers and SSDI beneficiaries. But total replacement rates are substantially lower for SSDI beneficiaries, which indicates that, despite Social Security’s vital role in providing a reliable income source, SSDI beneficiaries have much lower post-career well-being than retired workers. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2017-6&r=dcm |
| By: | Jaroslaw Czerski (Instytut Analiz Monitor Rynku Nieruchomosci); Michal Gluszak (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie); Robert Zygmunt (Uniwersytet Rolniczy im. Hugona Kollataja w Krakowie) |
| Abstract: | Research background: There are several methods to construct a price index for infrequently traded real estate assets (mainly residential, but also office and land). The main concern to construct a valid and unbiased price index is to address the problem of heterogeneity of real estate, or put differently to control for both observable and unobservable quality attributes. Most frequently used is probably hedonic regression methodology (classic, but recently also spatial and quantile regression). An alternative approach to control for unobservable differences in assets’ quality is provided by repeat sales methodology, where price changes are tracked based on differences in prices of given asset sold twice (or multiple times) within the study period. The later approach is applied in famous S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller house price indices. Purpose of the article: The goal of the paper is to assess the applicability of repeat sales methodology for a major housing market in Poland. Previous studies used hedonic methodology or mix adjustment techniques and applied for major metropolitan areas. Most known example is a set of quarterly house price indices constructed by NBP – especially for primary and secondary market. The repeat sales methodology has not been adopted with significant success to date – mainly because of concern regarding relative infrequency of transactions on housing market in most metropolitan areas (thus potentially small sample of repeated sales). Methodology/methods: The study uses data on repeat sales of residential transactions in Krakow from 2003 to 2015. We apply different specifications of repeat sales index construction and compare respective values to hedonic price index for Krakow estimated by NBP. Findings: Findings suggest that repeat sales house sales indices can be used to track price dynamics for major metropolitan areas in Poland. The study suggests problems that need to be addresses in order to get unbiased results – mainly data collection mechanism and estimation procedure. |
| Keywords: | repeat sales index, Poland, housing market, house price, real estate |
| JEL: | C18 C43 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no29&r=dcm |
| By: | Tanin, Tauhidul Islam; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Despite a drop of 0.2 points in 2015 in the Index of Economic Freedom, Bangladesh is awarded an upgraded economic status by the World Bank due to a consistent and boosted economic growth. However, there is a debate as to whether Economic Freedom leads or lags economic growth. Using ARDL approach and taking Bangladesh as a case study, this paper investigates whether economic freedom leads or lags economic growth in Bangladesh during the period 1995 - 2015. This study chooses Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom as it is widely accepted. The results tend to indicate that Economic Freedom does clearly lead and enhance economic growth in the context of Bangladesh during the period under review. |
| Keywords: | Economic Freedom, Economic Liberalization, Economic Growth, Bangladesh, ARDL |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79446&r=dcm |
| By: | Jung, Verena (QE / Operations research); Peeters - Rutten, Marianne (QE / Operations research); Vredeveld, Tjark (QE / Operations research) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework to better evaluate potential supply chain collaborations (SCCs). Design/methodology/approach – Prior research is used to develop a conceptual framework of all relevant factors, both drivers and resistors, which is, next, empirically tested in the Dutch fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry. Findings –The study provides a complete overview of all potential factors that should be evaluated before starting SSCs, categorized in “benefits”, “forces”, “enablers/barriers” and “risks”. Research limitations/implications – The sample of the study only consists of parties from one Dutch industry. Further research in other geographical areas and/or industries may result in stronger support. Furthermore, the importance of each driver and resistor has not been quantified for the specific party and collaboration. Quantifying the factors for each party might be beneficial and should also be considered in further research. Practical implications – The study provides a checklist containing all potential factors for all parties involved. Originality/value –This paper enriches the supply chain management (SCM) literature with an extensive specification of all potential drivers and resistors for starting SCCs structured in a framework. |
| Keywords: | Operations research and management science |
| Date: | 2017–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2017014&r=dcm |
| By: | Charles F. Manski |
| Abstract: | Economists commonly suppose that persons have probabilistic expectations for uncertain events, yet empirical research measuring expectations was long rare. The inhibition against collection of expectations data has gradually lessened, generating a substantial body of recent evidence on the expectations of broad populations. This paper first summarizes the history leading to development of the modern literature and overviews its main concerns. I then describe research on three subjects that should be of direct concern to macroeconomists: expectations of equity returns, inflation expectations, and professional macroeconomic forecasters. I also describe work that questions the assumption that persons have well-defined probabilistic expectations and communicate them accurately in surveys. Finally, I consider the evolution of thinking about expectations formation in macroeconomic policy analysis. I favorably observe the increasing willingness of theorists to study alternatives to rational expectations assumptions, but I express concern that models of expectations formation will proliferate in the absence of empirical research to discipline thinking. To make progress, I urge measurement and analysis of the revisions to expectations that agents make following occurrence of unanticipated shocks. |
| JEL: | D84 E03 E66 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23418&r=dcm |
| By: | Camila Figueroa; Michael Pedersen |
| Abstract: | Monetary authorities have to plan how many units of coins and bank notes they need to buy / produce to meet the needs of the economy. With data from the Central Bank of Chile, the process of supplying coins and banknotes to the banking sector is described. This is followed by exercises aiming at finding useful models for forecasting cash demand for the horizons up to three years, which are the relevant ones for planning purchases and delivery of individual banknotes in Chile. With respect to the aggregate circulating stock of cash, time series models seem to perform better for the one–year–ahead horizon, while models based on fundamental variables are better for two and three years. Time series models for each denomination seem to be the best forecasting option to guide the purchases of notes and coins. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:799&r=dcm |
| By: | Korotaev, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shulgin, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zinkina, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes six existing methodologies for assessing socio-political risks (the Index of Political Instability, the model Koplin's country political risks - O'Leary; Index of Lager's peace and conflict instability; Global Peace Index; The George Mason University Instability Index; Index of failed and unstable states). A theoretical model of social instability is analyzed, a methodology of Network analysis is introduced, and a forecast of country risks for the most unstable Countries is provided. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031715&r=dcm |
| By: | Barinova, Vera (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zemtsov, Stepan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Semenova, Roza (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the main approaches to the construction of ratings of innovative development are analyzed, the experience of foreign ranking of countries and regions is considered. The analysis of Russian ratings is carried out and their applicability is estimated. Conclusions are drawn based on the results of a comparative analysis of Russian and foreign rankings. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031720&r=dcm |
| By: | Daniel Andrei; Bruce I. Carlin |
| Abstract: | Creative destruction not only involves bringing new technology to market, it imposes higher risk on the future of existing assets. We characterize the asset pricing implications of creative destruction when investors compete for market share. Compared to the social optimum, the quest for oligopoly rents leads to over-investment in uncertain projects, spikes in asset prices and risk premia, and an aftermath in which prices fall steeply as uncertainty resolves. These pricing patterns resemble a bubble ex post, but arise solely from competitive behavior and do not require information asymmetry, behavioral biases, or financial frictions. Our analysis yields novel empirical predictions and we discuss how financial innovation might be used to predict bubbles ex ante. |
| JEL: | G12 L13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23455&r=dcm |
| By: | Richters, Oliver; Siemoneit, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Worldwide economic growth is fostered, despite its severe conflicts with sustainability and despite the tendency of secular stagnation. To study whether this fostering is 'only' a question of political and individual will or 'unavoidable' to maintain economic stability, we deliver a rather narrow micro level definition of a 'growth imperative'. We divide the many alleged growth imperatives into five categories and review them, thereby reducing several reasonings to few core arguments. We conclude that neither commercial competition, nor profit expectations, nor the monetary system are stand-alone growth imperatives. Instead, when technological innovations (based on resource consumption) are introduced, market forces lead to a systematic necessity to net invest due to the interplay of creative destruction, profit maximization, and the need to limit losses. Unemployment is substantially caused by productivity gains, and the societal and political necessity of high employment explains why states 'must' foster economic growth. This explanation is culturally and normatively parsimonious and empirically substantiated. |
| Keywords: | Wachstumszwang,Nullwachstum,säkulare Stagnation,Geldsystem, Wettbewerb,Profit,technischer Fortschritt,growth imperative,zero growth,secular stagnation,monetary system,competition,profit,technological progress |
| JEL: | Q01 O40 O44 P10 P1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:voodps:62017&r=dcm |
| By: | Izabela Jonek-Kowalska (The Silesian University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Due to increasing economic and sector risk coal mining in Europe is treated as a declining industry. In post-transition economies such approach is a threat for energy security and local and regional economic development. Nowadays, coal mining survival in Central-East Europe is additionally threatened by accumulative global risk factors, especially by price differentiation and shale gas revolution in United States of America. Revealed circumstances require deepen research and diagnosis in the area of risk and corporate management in mining enterprises in Central-East Europe. The main aim of the article is to assess industrial risk in coal mining in Central-East Europe. The research is divided into three parts. In the first one the situation of coal mining in Central-East Europe is characterized. It is the basis for selection of the countries for the detailed analysis. In the second part the industrial risk factors are assessed and described. Finally, in the third part their influence on financial results in the examined mining enterprises is evaluated. In the summary the international comparison is made and general assumptions for risk and corporate management are formulated. In the article a risk checklist is used to identify the economic and industrial risk factors. To determine their influence on financial results on the first stage of research Pearson’s coefficients are used. Than regression functions are developed. The data are collected on the basis of public statistics and financial statements of the examined mining enterprises. On the basis of research results it may be stated that there are only a few countries in Europe in which mining enterprises still operate as separate economic units and all of them have experienced serious financial troubles in the last years. Risk intensification contributed mostly to revenues reduction and negative financial results. |
| Keywords: | post-transition economies, economic and industrial risk, coal mining |
| JEL: | P23 P28 G31 L72 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no42&r=dcm |
| By: | Goldbach, Stefan; Nagengast, Arne J.; Steinmüller, Elias; Wamser, Georg |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between foreign and domestic investment activity of multinational enterprises. The empirical analysis is based on micro data of German firms and their operations at home and abroad, including information on investment in fixed assets. The empirical approach, which rests upon extensive and intensive margin variation, is shown to produce very robust results. These suggest a positive relationship between foreign and home investment in real capital. This positive effect seems to be mainly related to additional opportunities for tax planning and better access to financing capital. In contrast, we do not find evidence that improved production processes and technology upgrading cause the positive effect on investment at home. Our empirical approach allows us to distinguish between an extensive and intensive margin effect: setting up a new foreign affiliate leads to an immediate positive effect of about EUR 450,000 additional investment; the investment elasticity at the intensive margin is estimated to be approximately 0.13. |
| Keywords: | Outward FDI,Multinational Firms,Domestic Investment,Corporate Taxes,Internal Capital Markets,Technology |
| JEL: | F23 F61 H25 L23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:142017&r=dcm |
| By: | Alberto Alesina; Bryony Reich; Alessandro Riboni |
| Abstract: | The increase in army size observed in early modern times changed the way states conducted wars. Starting in the late 18th century, states switched from mercenaries to a mass army by conscription. In order for the population to accept to fight and endure war, the government elites began to provide public goods, reduced rent extraction and adopted policies to homogenize the population with nation-building. This paper explores a variety of ways in which nation-building can be implemented and studies its effects as a function of technological innovation in warfare. |
| JEL: | P16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23435&r=dcm |
| By: | Wei Dai (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Mark Weder (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Bo Zhang (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | People's animal spirits are a significant driver behind the fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle. This insight is demonstrated within an estimated artificial economy with financial market frictions. Animal spirits shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations over the period from 1955 to 2014. Financial friction and technology shocks are considerably less important with best point estimates for both near 20 percent. We also find that the Great Recession, for the most parts, was caused by adverse shocks to expectations. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous financial frictions, indeterminacy, animal spirits, business cycles, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2017-08&r=dcm |
| By: | Isaev, Mirolim; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | There is little empirical evidence from the econometric analysis of the relationship between private sector’s foreign debt servicing and social development in open economies. This paper examines the relationship between private sector share of foreign debt, the unemployment rate and trade openness with Australia as a case study over the period 1988Q4-2016Q4. We employ Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique to explore the presence of theoretical long-run relationship among these variables. Our empirical findings indicate the presence of long-run equilibrium among variables. Moreover, the empirical results tend to reveal that the accumulation of private sector share of foreign debt is associated with the growth in Australia’s unemployment rate. We suggest for the policy makers that improvement of the private sector’s foreign debt is likely to reduce the unemployment rate. |
| Keywords: | private sector foreign debt, unemployment, trade openness, ARDL, variance decompositions |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79423&r=dcm |
| By: | Pawel Krolikowski; Andrew H. McCallum |
| Abstract: | We present a tractable framework that embeds goods-market frictions in a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporters and identical importers. These frictions arise because it is time consuming and expensive for exporters and importers to meet. We show that search frictions lead to an endogenous fraction of unmatched exporters, alter the gains from trade, endogenize entry costs, and imply that the competitive equilibrium does not generally result in the socially optimal number of searching firms. Finally, ignoring search frictions results in biased estimates of the effect of tariffs on trade flows. |
| Keywords: | Search ; Trade ; Goods ; Frictions ; Information |
| JEL: | D83 F12 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1207&r=dcm |
| By: | Amsler, Christine; Prokhorov, Artem; Schmidt, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a stochastic frontier model that contains environmental variables that affect the level of inefficiency but not the frontier. The model contains statistical noise, potentially endogenous regressors, and technical inefficiency that follows the scaling property, in the sense that it is the product of a basic (half-normal) inefficiency term and a parametric function of the environmental variables. The environmental variables may be endogenous because they are correlated with the statistical noise or with the basic inefficiency term. Several previous papers have considered the case of inputs that are endogenous because they are correlated with statistical noise, and if they contain environmental variables these are exogenous. One recent paper allows the environmental variables to be correlated with statistical noise. Our paper is the first to allow both the inputs and the environmental variables to be endogenous in the sense that they are correlated either with statistical noise or with the basic inefficiency term. Correlation of inputs or environmental variables with the basic inefficiency term raises non-trivial conceptual issues about the meaning of exogeneity, and technical issues of estimation of the model. |
| Keywords: | environmental variables; stochastic frontier; endogeneity |
| Date: | 2017–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syb:wpbsba:2123/16763&r=dcm |
| By: | Juan Jung (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Enrique López-Bazo (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the incidence of broadband on regional productivity in Brazil, intending to find out if the economic impact is uniform across all territories of the country. The possibility of performing a regional approach, instead of the usual country-level analysis, means an opportunity to disentangle the economic impact of broadband at territories which share a common institutional and regulatory framework as are the regions inside a country. Results suggest that the impact of broadband on productivity is positive although not uniform across regions. On the one hand, it seems to depend on connection quality and network effects. Faster download speed and critical-mass accounting for network externalities in the region enhance the economic impact of broadband. On the other hand, higher productivity gains are estimated for the less developed regions. The fact that the less productive regions in Brazil seem to be benefiting more from broadband may suggest that it can constitute a factor favoring regional convergence in the country. |
| Keywords: | Broadband, Information and Communication Technologies, Regional Productivity JEL classification: O33, O47, R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201704&r=dcm |
| By: | Rita Remeikiene (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, V. Kudirkos 18-2, 03105, Vilnius, Lithuania); Ligita Gaspareniene (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, V. Kudirkos 18-2, 03105, Vilnius, Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | Increasing flows of migration have not only positive, but also negative effects on economics, first of all, by causing substantial disproportions in the labour market. Lithuanian national economy has been hurt by excessive emigration rates. With reference to the projections of ‘Eurostat’ (2015, pp. 1-16), by 2060, Lithuanian population will have decreased by 1.8 million. Loss of such big quantities of the labour force is dramatically reducing competitiveness of the country. Although scientific literature is relatively rich in the studies on the links between emigration and general structural components of competitiveness, the current and plausible future impact of high emigration rates on the competitiveness of Lithuania has hardly been researched. To assess the impact of emigration on the competitiveness of Lithuanian economics. Comparative and systematic analysis of the scientific literature, correlation analysis. It has been found that a substantial part of the indicators of Lithuanian competitiveness show different trends than those which are described in the scientific literature. This finding discloses the complexity of the situation in the country. It should be noted that although the country is losing its labour force, the rates of GDP per capita are increasing. This tendency can be explained by intensive flows of investment in R&D, i.e. the model of the country’s economy is being redirected from cheap labour to technology-based economy. Nevertheless, the situation in the country is worsened by sustainability of high unemployment rate and high risk of population’s poverty. Lithuania really needs to start caring about its demographic resources because in the future the trends of low birthrate and aging society will ultimately cause the problems of social support and tax burden for the employed population. |
| Keywords: | export, factors, evaluation, Lithuania |
| JEL: | J11 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no98&r=dcm |
| By: | Knotek, Edward S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Garciga, Christian (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | Beyond GDP, which is measured using expenditure data, the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) provide an income-based measure of the economy (gross domestic income, or GDI), a measure that averages GDP and GDI, and various aggregates that include combinations of GDP components. This paper compiles real-time data on a variety of NIPA aggregates and uses these in simple time-series models to construct out-of-sample forecasts for GDP growth. Over short forecast horizons, NIPA aggregates—particularly consumption and GDP less inventories and trade—together with these simple time-series models have historically generated more accurate forecasts than a canonical AR(2) benchmark. This has been especially true during recessions, although we document modest gains during expansions as well. |
| Keywords: | forecasting; GDP; GDI; real-time data; consumption; |
| JEL: | C32 C53 E01 |
| Date: | 2017–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1708&r=dcm |
| By: | He, Ming (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); van Marrewijk, Charles (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the consequences of China's massive transformation of cities for firm-level productivity and technology spillovers at the detailed district/county level for the Electric Apparatus sector. We identify three types of regions (metro core, metro ring, and periphery) and three types of transformation variables (modernization, mobility, and economic regional disparity). Using a spatial autoregressive model which allows us to distinguish between spillovers within the region and between neighboring regions, and after controlling for the standard results found in the literature, we nd that: modernization and mobility contribute signifficantly to interregional technology spillovers with neighboring regions, while economic regional disparity signifficantly discourages such types of spillovers and instead encourages spillovers with firms within the region. Of the three transformation variables, disparity explains most of the variance in spillover e ects, followed by mobility and modernization. |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-01&r=dcm |
| By: | Bobylev, Yuri (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Rasenko, Olesya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper considers the main approaches to the construction of tax regimes for the oil sector of the economy. A comparative analysis of various tax regimes that can be used to improve the efficiency of the tax system in the oil sector of the Russian economy is carried out. This work formulates recommendations on the state tax policy in relation to the oil sector aimed at ensuring the revenues of the state budget and creating the necessary conditions for investment. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041723&r=dcm |
| By: | Tatsuyoshi Saijo (Research Center for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology); Jun Feng (Research Center for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology); Yutaka Kobayashi (Research Center for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Efficient allocations in common-pool resources cannot be accomplished when appropriators are selfish. In addition, we find that a system of a common-pool resource is locally unstable if there are four or more appropriators. Such instability most likely makes efficiency worse than that in the Nash equilibrium. These results indicate that equilibrium analyses might not capture the essence of the common-pool resource problem. They may also provide an answer to the unexplained pulsing behavior among appropriators and inefficiency observed in experiments. |
| Keywords: | instability, Nash equilibrium, common-pool resources, pulsing behavior, appropriation problem |
| JEL: | C62 C72 C92 Q22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2017-5&r=dcm |
| By: | James E. Anderson; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | Short run gravity is a geometric weighted average of long run gravity and bilateral capacity. The model features (i) joint trade costs endogenous to bilateral volumes, (ii) long run gravity as a limiting case of efficient investment in bilateral capacities, (iii) a structural ratio of short run to long run trade elasticities equal to a micro-founded buyers' incidence elasticity, and (iv) tractable short and long run models of the extensive margin. Application to manufacturing trade of 52 countries during the globalization period 1988-2006 strongly supports the model. Results solve several time invariance and trade elasticity puzzles in the literature. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23458&r=dcm |
| By: | José Miguel Matus |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the main changes in regulation and the measurement of market risks of the banking industry. In that sense, this article focuses its analysis in the 1979-2015 period, especially the main recommendations of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and the challenges facing the banks in terms of existing gaps between the current regulation and the standards suggested by the BCBS. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchee:119&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Buslowska (Uniwersytet w Bialymstoku); Beata Wisniewska (Wyzsza Szkola Ekonomiczna) |
| Abstract: | Today, the value of skilled, complex and creative work is growing fast. In the global knowledge economy, people's knowledge, skills learning, talents and abilities - their human capital - have become a main factor of economic growth. In many regions, the potential of human capital is restricted, eg. in podlaskie voivodship. Particular problems exist in the field of vocational education as a result of long-term under-funding of vacational schools, reversal of proportion in choice between vacational and regular high schools, etc. Especially in the field of vacational education exists low quality of training. Education systems can do much to help people realise their potential and external funding (eg. EU) can support innovative projects for the development of human resources. The main goal of this article is to show an exemple of innovative project in the field of vacational education. In frame of EU instrument called Integrated Territorial Investments in Bialystok Functional Area (BFA) is implementing project “Competence Center of BFA”. The project is to support the development of knowledge, professional skills, talents and abilities. In the article was described a case study of “Competence Center of BFA”, which aims to adapt the competence to the needs of the regional economy. Case study will be preceded by an analysis of the situation of vocational education in the area of BFA and analysis of theoretical issues. The analysis led to the following conclusions: vocational education requires a broad integrated support; cooperation with different stakeholders (especially with employers, organizations of business environment, etc.) is essential to achieve high-quality education; a vocational education should be more attractive for pupils. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; human development; economic development |
| JEL: | J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no16&r=dcm |
| By: | Peter Mitic |
| Abstract: | The changing nature of the relationship between a retail bank and its customers is examined, particularly with respect to new financial concepts, debt and regulation. The traditional image of a bank is portrayed as a physical building a classical Doric portico. This image conveys concepts of service, soundness, strength, stability and security ("five-S"). That "five-S" concept is changing, and the evidence for changes that affect customers directly is considered. A fundamental legal problem associated with those changes is highlighted: a bank is no longer solely responsible for the safeguard of customer monies. A solution to this problem is proposed: banks should be jointly liable with perpetrators of criminal activity in the event of frauds as an encouragement to recognise and mitigate fraud. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.10974&r=dcm |
| By: | Marchese, Carla; Marsiglio, Simone; Privileggi, Fabio; Ramello, Giovanni B. |
| Abstract: | We show that, even in a framework in which monopolistic exploitation of patents does not occur, patents still give rise to serious drawbacks. We build on Weitzman’s (1998) recombinant growth model which provides a stylized but clear description of the formation of knowledge externalities. In our framework a benevolent government buys immediately new patents in a competitive market and releases their contents for free. We show that inefficiencies nevertheless arise and welfare can be improved by correcting the market price through a tax-subsidy scheme. We characterize the (asymptotic) steady state equilibrium, and some properties of the transitional path. We show that if certain conditions are met, then the economy will converge to its (asymptotic) balanced growth path, and along such a path growth will be independent of the policy parameter; conversely, transition dynamics are affected by the choice of the policy parameter. We then quantitatively analyze the effect of different policy interventions on welfare, and show that stricter tax (weaker appropriability) regimes lead to higher social welfare. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uca:ucaiel:23&r=dcm |
| By: | Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Lamonaca, Emilia; Contò, Francesco; Stasi, Antonio; Nardone, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | Understanding the determinants of price volatility is a key step to prevent potential negative consequences of to the uncertainty faced by farmers. Our critical provides a novel categorization of grain price volatility drivers. We distinguish endogenous and exogenous causes and conclude on the potential effects that each of identified factors may generate on price dynamics. In particular, we deepen on the contribution of endogenous factors such as spatial and temporal arbitrage, as well as drivers of shocks of demand and supply. |
| Keywords: | Grain, Price, Risk, Uncertainty, Volatility |
| JEL: | D81 E31 Q11 Q13 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79427&r=dcm |
| By: | Burgher, Joshua; Hamers, Herbert (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a quantitative model that can be used for decision support for planning and optimizing the composition of portfolios of market-driven academic programs within the context of higher education. This model is intended to enable leaders in colleges and universities to maximize financial performance of the selection of market-driven academic programs while also achieving qualitative targets for dimensions of the portfolio (e.g., mission alignment, student demographics, and faculty characteristics). This model is then applied to a case from a school of continuing education at a prestigious private university in the US. The results of the case highlight the potential positive impact of utilizing a model such as this for planning purposes. |
| Keywords: | program portfolio optimization; strategic planning; integer linea programming; higher education; quantifying qualitatvie program data |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:e0782c5b-c2ad-443d-b0ad-9a5963c7ed45&r=dcm |
| By: | Iskakov, Aziz |
| Abstract: | Within the framework of this article, intermediate results of the analysis of the need and prospects for the development and implementation of a national open access program in Kazakhstan are presented. The positions of Kazakhstan organizations and researchers in international initiatives in the field of open access to the results of scientific (scientific and technical) activities are investigated, and the necessity of improving the state policy in the sphere of education and science in support of the information infrastructure is substantiated. Implemented earlier and current projects in the field of open access, as well as the main NAPs and policy documents regulating the development of science in the Republic of Kazakhstan were studied. The analysis of existing budgetary programs administered by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan within the framework of implementation of these documents is carried out. In the course of the study, the goals and objectives of the national initiative on open access, the basic principles for the development of an efficiency assessment system and the public-private partnership model applicable in the implementation of this program were formulated. *** В рамках настоящей статьи представлены промежуточные результаты анализа потребности и перспектив разработки и внедрения национальной программы открытого доступа в Казахстане. Исследованы позиции казахстанских организаций и исследователей в международных инициативах в сфере открытого доступа к результатам научной (научно-технической) деятельности, а также обоснована необходимость совершенствования государственной политики в сфере образования и науки в части поддержки информационной инфраструктуры. Изучены реализовавшиеся ранее и действующие проекты в сфере открытого доступа, а также основные НПА и программные документы регламентирующие развитие науки в Республике Казахстан. Проведен анализ действующих бюджетных программ администрируемых Министерством образования и науки Республики Казахстан в рамках реализации этих документов. В ходе проведения исследования были сформулированы цели и задачи национальной инициативы открытого доступа, базовые принципы разработки системы оценки эффективности и модели государственно-частного партнерства применимые в реализации данной программы. |
| Keywords: | knowledge economy, research infrastructure, open access, open access, scientific communication |
| JEL: | H83 O32 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79462&r=dcm |
| By: | Loretta Mastroeni; Pierluigi Vellucci |
| Abstract: | We test whether the futures prices of some commodity and en- ergy markets are determined by stochastic rules or exhibit nonlinear deterministic endogenous uctuations. As for the methodologies, we use the maximal Lyapunov exponents (MLE) and a determinism test, both based on the reconstruction of the phase space of a dynamical sys- tem underlying a scalar time series. In particular, employing a recent methodology, we estimate a coecient that describes the determin- ism rate of the analyzed time series. The empirical evidence suggests that commodity and energy futures prices are the measured footprint of a nonlinear deterministic, rather than a stochastic, system. |
| Keywords: | chaos, butter y e ect, commodity futures. |
| JEL: | C53 D40 Q02 Q47 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0218&r=dcm |
| By: | Alberto Naudon; Andrés Pérez |
| Abstract: | As a proxy for Chile's labor market, we analyze labor market flows of the Metropolitan Region of Santiago throughout the last fifty years. Following Shimer (2012) and others, we calculate job finding and job separation rates (hazard rates) to and from employment and unemployment considering unemployment stocks. Interestingly enough, even though the current trend unemployment rate is not materially different to what it was fifty years ago, our results suggest the labor market is considerably more dynamic. The increase in trend hazard rates occurs in the context of significant changes in economic growth, ongoing reallocation of output towards services relative to manufacturing, important regulatory changes in the labor market, and a gradual shift in the composition of the labor force. In addition, our estimates suggest that changes in the finding rate are relatively more important than changes in the separation rate in explaining the variance of the unemployment rate. From an international perspective our estimates suggest that in spite of having relatively rigid labor legislation, the Chilean labor market appears to be as dynamic as an average Anglo-Saxon country, yet less dynamic than the labor market of the United States. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:800&r=dcm |
| By: | Harker, Patrick T. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | In a commencement address at the Jefferson College of Health Professions and Jefferson College of Pharmacy, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker focused on the connection between health and economic prosperity. |
| Keywords: | economic prosperity; personal health |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpsp:133&r=dcm |
| By: | Vladimíra Kucerova (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Value added tax, as an instrument of fiscal policy and also a very important income for the state budget. It is one of the universal indirect taxes, which has a significant influence on the price level in the country. The European Union's system of value added tax on goods and services are primarily governed by "the 6th VAT Directive" set by the European Commission. The paper deals with the question of how changes in the rates of value added tax influence buying behaviour of customers. Buying behaviour could be expressed as decisions of customers about expending their own resources such as money, effort and time, on items related to their consumption in order to meet their needs. The area of the research is a Czech retail market with food. Due to the nature of VAT, the influence of this tax on buying behaviour was quantified by price elasticity of demand respectively indirect tax elasticity of demand. The article is conceived as a case study, according to the principles R.K. Yin. The evaluation of buying behaviour is based on real data, which deals with volumes of sales and sales prices realized in a specific Czech retail chain, which associate more than 200 shops. The goal of the study is not only to propose the way how to identify buyers' response to the changes in the VAT rate, but also to bring the knowledge about customers’ response to the realized changes, and finally to propose how to use this knowledge in a development of pricing strategy in case of further changes in the VAT rate. |
| Keywords: | Value Added Tax, price elasticity of demand, buying behavior, food retail, case study |
| JEL: | D12 H31 E62 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no52&r=dcm |
| By: | Martin Lukáèik (University of Economics in Bratislava, Dolnozemská cesta 1, Bratislava, Slovakia); Karol Szomolányi (University of Economics in Bratislava, Dolnozemská cesta 1, Bratislava, Slovakia); Adriana Lukáèiková (University of Economics in Bratislava, Dolnozemská cesta 1, Bratislava, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The value of the elasticity of the substitution has been a subject of the research around the world in last decades. It affects the qualitative and quantitative answers to a host of economic questions. Purpose of the article: We suggest the co-integration estimation form to estimate short-run elasticity of substitution. Using U.S. NIPA aggregate time series we estimate aggregate short-run elasticity of substitution. In comparison with estimations in economic literature, we confirm theoretical assumptions described in the research background. Methodology/methods: Different econometric estimation forms are used to estimate elasticity of the substitution coefficient. One possibility is a constant elasticity of substitution production function linearization. Others come from the first-order conditions of a representative firm expressing factor demand functions. Error correction models are natural and elegant way to estimate the forms with non-stationary data. However, the use of error correction models in the factor demand econometric forms is useless for estimating a long-run elasticity of substitution coefficient. The co-integration relationship is given by the theoretical assumption of the labour share constancy in the long-run or by other underlying processes. Though, we can use this co-integration relationship to correct error term in the short-run estimation form. To estimate the short-run elasticity of substitution, we use Stock and Watson’s estimation form. Stability, stationarity and serial correlation of residuals are tested by the relevant econometric tests. Findings: The value of aggregate short-run elasticity of substitution is closed to one. In comparison with other relevant theoretical and empirical papers, our results incline to the Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function in U.S. economy. |
| Keywords: | short-run and long-run elasticity of substitution, aggregate and sectoral estimations, vector error correction model, labour demand of the profit maximizing firm |
| JEL: | C13 E23 E24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no63&r=dcm |
| By: | HOSONO Kaoru; MIYAKAWA Daisuke; TAKIZAWA Miho |
| Abstract: | Using data for 3,800 Japanese firms and their 20,000 overseas subsidiaries over the period 2000-2013, we estimate the subsidiary-level production function to check whether or not intangible assets accumulated by parent firms contribute to the subsidiary production. We find that, first, the intangibles (i.e., software, advertisement, and research & development capital) owned by parent firms positively contribute to subsidiary production. Second, the contribution is stronger in the case of smaller subsidiaries. Third, such positive contribution from parent firms' intangible to subsidiaries' production is confirmed for most of the subsidiary locations. These results jointly suggest that intangibles contribute to firm activities even if they are in geographically remote locations. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17073&r=dcm |
| By: | Rodney J. Andrews; John Thompson |
| Abstract: | The competitive application process is the traditional path to gain access to selective public universities. There is little research on alternative pathways to gain access to selective public universities. In this manuscript, we use the fuzzy regression discontinuity design to study the impact of transferring to the University of Texas at Austin. We find that gaining access via this path has an impact on choice of major, financial aid, and earnings. |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23442&r=dcm |
| By: | Ahmed, Azleen Rosemy; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long run relationship between financial development and income inequality in Malaysia over the period of 1970-2007. For the last 45 years, Malaysian income inequality has been decreasing from a height of 0.56 (Gini coefficient) in 1976 to 0.4 in 2014 while its economy and financial sector especially the banking industry has been expanding. The issue of importance is to investigate whether in a developing economy, the financial sector plays a role in reducing income inequality by mobilising and allocating savings into productive investments. We have employed the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach and the error correction mechanism to examine the existence of long run relationship, while variance decomposition (VDC) technique is used to provide Granger causal relationship between the variables. The cointegration tests show that there is a long run relationship between financial development, economic growth, trade openness and income inequality in Malaysia. However, financial development itself is found to be not statistically significant in influencing income inequality during the sample period. This finding is similar to Law & Tan’s (2009) findings over a shorter period 1980-2000. However, the VDC finds that financial development can be a tool for the government to employ to reduce income inequality. This paper also provides evidence that trade openness helps reduce income inequality. In terms of policy, enhancing financial access that would steer the development of financial system towards a pro-growth and pro-poor direction is needed to ensure that financial development fully supports the reduction of income inequality in Malaysia. |
| Keywords: | Financial development, income inequality, Malaysia, ARDL |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79416&r=dcm |
| By: | Krasnova, Gulnara (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the national education systems of the BRICS countries are analyzed: accessibility, quality, structure, qualifications, financing, management, additional vocational education, ongoing reforms. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041733&r=dcm |
| By: | Justyna Zygmunt (Opole University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | While a large literature exists linking entrepreneurship with its drivers in developed economies, entrepreneurship issues in the transition economies are still no entirely recognised. The Visegrad countries represent a unique scope for examining drivers affecting entrepreneurial activity in the transition economies, since they faced similarities at the beginning of the transformation. The findings may be supportive in identifying threats and opportunities of the economic development of Central and Eastern Europe regions.This paper contributes to the literature on entrepreneurship by focusing on drivers of entrepreneurial activity in the transition economies. The aim of the paper is to analyse how entrepreneurial activity in respective Visegrad countries is influenced by various drivers.Entrepreneurship activity and its drivers in the Visegrad countries were considered for the 2004-2014 period. Hypotheses were tested with the usage of an Ordinary Least Squared regression. F-test was employed to test estimated regressions. Goodness-of-fit of the regressions was controlled with the coefficient of determination. To check for the collinearity, Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used.In this paper the approach for improving the understanding of issues related to entrepreneurship in the transition economies is made. This paper contributes to the understanding of how entrepreneurship activity in the Visegrad countries is influenced by various drivers. The main finding is that although entrepreneurial activity in the Visegrad countries seems to be influenced by similar drivers that have been identified for developed economies, the way in which respective drivers matters for entrepreneurship is, in certain cases, distinct. The findings may attract attention of policymakers and may be useful in the processes of policy pursuing. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, transition economies, the Visegrad countries |
| JEL: | L26 P25 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no151&r=dcm |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The OECD Fisheries Support Estimate (FSE) database collects and classifies information on budgetary transfers to the fisheries sector in 31 countries that together account for 35% of global fisheries landings. In 2015, the most recent year, it inventories policies and programmes totalling USD 7 billion. Most of this support is found to be directed towards general services to the fishing sector, mainly in the form of fisheries management costs, but also for, inter alia, infrastructure, research and stock enhancement. Approximately USD 500 million per year is used for programmes that deliver funds directly in the hands of fishers. The share of this form of support has been decreasing over time. Payments based on the use of variable inputs are found to be the most likely to provoke increased fishing effort, while payments based on fixed capital formation are most likely to encourage increased capacity levels. Payments based on fishers income are less likely to increase effort or capacity and may be more effective at improving the welfare of fishers. Payments to general services for the sector are least likely to increase effort or fishing capacity. |
| Keywords: | Fisheries support, overcapacity, overfishing, subsidies |
| JEL: | H23 H53 H54 |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:103-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Ren, Chongqiang; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Li, Shasha; Chen, Wei |
| Abstract: | China has experienced extraordinary institutional and socio-economic changes after 1978, and its deepening reform to market-oriented economy since 1990s was also recognized as one the most significant factors to drive China's rise in the contemporary world. Although many aspects of China's market reform have been extensively analysed in the literature, specific attention on the adaptation of economic growth to this reform has been relatively ignored. To fill this gap, this research adopts the extenics assessment method to assess this adaptation and applies the membership function coordination degree model to analyse the sustainability of such adaptation. In conclusion, China has demonstrated a significantly enhanced adaptation capacity at the expense of coordination, which requires to be further emphasised in its economic growth adaptation strategies. |
| Keywords: | economic adaptation,extenics assessment method,membership function coordination degree model,market economy reform |
| JEL: | A11 O11 P21 P41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201724&r=dcm |
| By: | Lannoo, Karel |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis led to a raft of new or updated EU conduct rules to ensure the orderly functioning of markets and market operators. The core measure is known as MiFID II, which is a radical update of the 2004 Markets in Financial Instruments Directive. MiFID II is now in the implementation phase and may bring further structural change to Europe's securities markets. Other measures have also been issued or updated, such as the rules against market manipulation and on short selling, and the formation and use of benchmarks. This ECMI Policy Brief reviews these new measures and discusses their effects. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:ecmiwp:12565&r=dcm |
| By: | HOSONO Kaoru; TAKIZAWA Miho |
| Abstract: | Using a dataset of Japanese listed firms from 2002 to 2013, we examine how firms' asset structure in terms of the ratio of intangible to tangible capital is related to their choice of financing sources among bank loans, equity issues (seasoned equity offerings: SEO), and bond issues. We further investigate how the choice of financing is related to post-financing investment in tangible and intangible capital. We find that firms with higher intangible capital ratios are more likely to choose equity issuance and less likely to choose loans than bond issues. Using propensity score matching and difference-in-differences approach (PSM-DID), we further find that firms that chose loans invest less in intangible capital than those that did not. Finally, we also obtain results that are consistent with a number of existing theories on capital structure such as the market timing (mispricing) hypothesis on equity issuance, the tradeoff and the pecking order hypotheses on debt and equity, and the holdup hypothesis on bank loans. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17080&r=dcm |
| By: | Magombeyi, Mercy T; Odhiambo, Nicholas M |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal relationship between poverty reduction and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in South Africa using time-series data from 1980 to 2014. A trivariate framework is used in this analysis, with the addition of real gross domestic product (GDP) as an intermittent variable. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach to cointegration and ECM-based causality tests, the results from this study found a distinct unidirectional causality from poverty reduction to FDI in both the short run and the long run when poverty reduction is measured by life expectancy and infant mortality rate. However, the results failed to find any causality, irrespective of the time considered, when poverty reduction is measured by household consumption expenditure. Based on the results from this study, it can be concluded that the causal relationship between FDI and poverty reduction is sensitive to the proxy used to measure the level of poverty reduction. |
| Keywords: | South Africa; Household consumption expenditure; Life expectancy; infant mortality |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:22601&r=dcm |
| By: | Matthew R. Graham; Mark J. Kutzbach; Danielle H. Sandler |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program’s ongoing efforts to use administrative records in a predictive model that describes residence locations for workers. This project was motivated by the discontinuation of a residence file produced elsewhere at the U.S. Census Bureau. The goal of the Residence Candidate File (RCF) process is to provide the LEHD Infrastructure Files with residence information that maintains currency with the changing state of administrative sources and represents uncertainty in location as a probability distribution. The discontinued file provided only a single residence per person/year, even when contributing administrative data may have contained multiple residences. This paper describes the motivation for the project, our methodology, the administrative data sources, the model estimation and validation results, and the file specifications. We find that the best prediction of the person-place model provides similar, but superior, accuracy compared with previous methods and performs well for workers in the LEHD jobs frame. We outline possibilities for further improvement in sources and modeling as well as recommendations on how to use the preference weights in downstream processing. |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:17-40&r=dcm |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | This study, using monthly micro data of firms' forecasted and realized production quantities, presents new findings on uncertainty over production forecasts. This is the first empirical study employing monthly-frequency quantitative forecast data at the firm level. According to the analysis, forecast errors are quite heterogeneous among individual manufacturers. For example, some firms underpredict their production, even when aggregate level production is overpredicted. In terms of firm characteristics, firms operating in the information and communications technology (ICT)-related industries, firms producing investment goods, and smaller firms exhibit higher forecast uncertainty. The forecast uncertainty is greater in contractionary phases of the business cycle. The uncertainty measures calculated from micro data have a predictive power over macroeconomic fluctuations, which cannot be detected from the measures derived from publicly available aggregated data, suggesting the value of firm-level micro data. Finally, forecast uncertainty of Japanese manufacturing firms is associated with overseas policy uncertainty, in addition to Japan's own economic policy uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17081&r=dcm |
| By: | Shuo Liu; Harry Pei |
| Abstract: | We study the monotonicity of sender’s equilibrium strategy with respect to her type in signalling games. We use counterexamples to show that when the sender’s payoff is non-separable, the Spence-Mirrlees condition cannot rule out equilibria in which the sender uses non-monotone strategies. These equilibria can survive standard refinements as incentives are strict and the sender plays every action with positive probability. We provide sufficient conditions under which the sender’s strategy is monotone in every Nash equilibrium. Our conditions require the sender’s payoff to have strictly increasing differences between the state and the action profile and monotone with respect to each player’s action. We also identify and fully characterize a novel property on the sender’s payoff that we call increasing absolute differences over distributions, under which every pair of distributions over the receiver’s actions can be ranked endogenously. Our sufficient conditions fit into a number of applications, including advertising, warranty provision, education and job assignment, etc. |
| Keywords: | Signalling game, monotone equilibrium, Spence-Mirrlees condition, monotonesupermodular payoff, quasi-concavity preserving, increasing absolute differences over distributions |
| JEL: | C72 D82 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:252&r=dcm |
| By: | Wojciech Kisiala (Poznan University of Economics and Business); Katarzyna Suszynska (Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The processes of economic convergence observed in many developing countries are characterized by reduction of economic differences on the between-country level, which are accompanied by growing internal economic inequalities. This may stem from the fact that in catching-up countries, a more dynamic growth is observed in the economically strongest regions, which is initially reflected in spatial polarization and increasing regional inequalities. However, just as the countries reach higher levels of development, the diffusion of growth-inducing impulses to the remaining areas should lead to the spatial equalizing of the development levels and reducing regional inequalities. The aim of the paper is to determine the relations between the level of economic growth in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and observed economic inequalities. The theoretical frame adopted to describe and explain those relations was the so-called Williamson hypothesis in which the relation between the scale of regional inequalities and economic growth is illustrated by a curve shaped like an inverted U. The research procedure was intended to verify Williamson hypothesis by estimating parabolic econometric models. Indicators of economic growth along with measure of regional inequalities (Williamson’s coefficient of variation) were used in the regression modeling. The research period spans over the years 1995-2014. In the light of the conducted study of CEE countries, it was possible to observe both convergence symptoms as well as divergence tendencies. It can be thus stated that the analyzed CEE countries followed a similar path to the one observed earlier by Williamson in other developing countries. However, the analyses conducted by the authors on the national and regional levels of CEE countries were equivocal and did not fully support the theoretical assumptions of Williamson's hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | regional inequalities; economic growth; Williamson hypothesis; econometric modeling; Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | C51 O11 O47 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no122&r=dcm |
| By: | Danuta Szwajca (Silesian University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Corporate reputation and image are two valuable intangible resources of the company, aimed at building its long-term competitive advantage and market value. Although reputation and image are interrelated categories, they should not be identified with each another. The differences are not only in the definition and character, but also in the mechanism of formation and tools to create these resources by the company. Image is a picture, perceptions and associations about the company in the minds of consumers, which may be created using the tools of PR and advertising in a relatively short period of time. Reputation is a review of the company and its activities, formulated by various stakeholder groups on the basis of not only the advertising, but also on the basis of the assessment of real activities of companies in the long term. The cognitive objective of the article is to point out the fundamental differences between reputation and image on the basis of the analysis of approaches and theoretical concepts. The practical objective is to make an attempt to identify the differences and relationships between reputation and image on the basis of empirical analysis, therefore the research was conducted in the Polish banking sector. In order to evaluate the image and reputation, the survey method was used aimed at the customers of banks operating on the Polish market. The results allowed formulating the thesis that the banks that are characterized by a consistent, unambiguous and positive image have higher rates of reputation. Due to some limitations of research conducted, mainly concerning the size and methods of sampling as well as the method applied for measuring the corporate reputation and image, the relationships identified should be treated as a starting point for broader research and for conducting further discussions in this area. |
| Keywords: | corporate reputation, corporate image, intangible resources, banking sector. |
| JEL: | G21 L14 L25 M31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no126&r=dcm |
| By: | Richard Kalis (Department of Economic Policy); Erika Stracova |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the topic of deindustrialization as a process of a decreasing relative importance of manufacturing. While the decrease of manufacturing in major developed and developed economies is undeniable, the developing and newly industrialized economies are starting to experience this phenomenon as well. The results of the paper show that the so-called premature deindustrialization is mainly caused by outsourcing. Furthermore, the data suggest the existence of an upper limit of outsourcing for major developed economies. In these economies, the decrease of manufacturing is more likely caused by other relevant factors. Last but not least, a few transition economies face to a slightly decreasing value of outsourcing on a much lower level. This could be explained by a fragmentation of the entire value chain across the European Union. The empirical results are based on the Input-Output methodology, the observation period of fifteen years from 2000 to 2014 and a sample of 43 countries. |
| Keywords: | input-output analysis, deindustrialization, outsourcing |
| JEL: | C67 L60 |
| Date: | 2017–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brt:depwps:011&r=dcm |
| By: | Katarzyna Grotkiewicz (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Agnieszka Latawiec (International Institute for Sustainability, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontificia Universidade Catolica); Maciej Kubon (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Anna Szelag-Sikora (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Marcin Niemiec (University of Agriculture in Krakow) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Analysis of economic and agricultural indicators are important tools to evaluate the performance of agriculture and describe scientific and technical progress (Agol et al., 2014, pp. 1-9; Archibugi and Coco, 2004, pp. 629–654). They also enable comparisons between the performances of different countries. In the comprehensive review by McConnell and Bockstael (2005, pp. 621-669), the measures of development show that competitiveness, both in the international and domestic arena, should be evaluated by two main indexes: the work productivity index and the land productivity index. Purpose of the article: The objective of this paper is to analyse social and economic factors that influence the efficiency of agriculture in three dissimilar countries: Poland, Unites States of America and China. The analysed countries have characteristic features that influence development of specific branches of agriculture including the level of social and economic growth, structural features of agriculture, agricultural policy, and market situations, thus shaping the level and structure of production. To our knowledge, this is the first study that discusses work and land productivity in these three countries. Methodology/methods: For calculation of final indexes of work and land productivity for the analysed countries, basic control and economic characteristics are necessary. These were calculated using the Eurostat database (2014) and the Yearbook of International Statistics CSO (2012; 2013a, 2013b) and include the area of agricultural land, number of farms and the average size of farms, the number of people active in agriculture, and gross national production in total and in agriculture. Findings & Value added: We found that Poland has not yet reached optimal land or work force productivity. The indicators suggest Poland is agriculturally closer to developing countries than developed. In particular, we indicate a low agricultural efficiency compared with Western countries. We conclude that to realise the full potential of Polish agriculture, considerable changes, such as farm consolidation and alternative employment options for farm workers, are necessary. According to the analysed data, Poland in comparison to China and the USA is at the last position in the ranking achieving 4% of the GNP in agriculture. Moreover, the structure of small farms in Poland with the average surface area of 10.38 is considerably lower than in the USA (190 ha) which causes that Poland is a less-competitive country. However, one should remember that not all experiences of leading countries may be directly translated into Polish conditions, where agriculture was shaping in completely different conditions and its present level has its historical preconditions. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, agri-economic indicators, work performance, land efficiency, metod |
| JEL: | B41 E24 O17 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no30&r=dcm |
| By: | Nazeer, Abdul Malik; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Based on many studies, economic theories and real life experiences, we can understand that political instability has been a harmful factor that would hinder the flow of FDI and the growth of an economy. In our study, we would like to focus on Malaysia, which had its fair share of political instability issues due to the differences and existence of various races. But based on recent studies, it is considered a politically stable economy. Despite everything, Malaysia has been able to achieve consistent economic growth, therefore we believe Malaysia is an interesting country to explore further. This paper aims to analyze the impact of political instability on foreign direct investment and on economic growth of Malaysia. This study employs autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). It is based on a time series data over the period of 30 years ranging from 1984 to 2013. There has been no studies identified yet to our knowledge which has investigated the causal relationships between political instability, FDI and economic growth for Malaysia. Our study aims to fill this gap in literature and would be of great use for the policy makers and key decision makers of the economy. The empirical results reveal that there are both long and short run relationship between political instability, FDI and economic growth in Malaysia, with economic growth being the strongest driver for political instability and FDI. These findings have clear policy implications in that the government of Malaysia can make use of it by targeting the growth in the economy to impact FDI and political instability. |
| Keywords: | political instability, foreign direct investment, economic growth, Malaysia, ARDL |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79418&r=dcm |
| By: | Abhijith Anand (University of Waikato); Rajeev Sharma (University of Waikato); Rajiv Kohli (The College of William & Mary) |
| Abstract: | Managers use business analytic systems to search for solutions to improve future performance. However, how past performance motivates managers to undertake search for solutions is not well understood. The Behavioral Theory of the Firm (BTF) proposed that managers gather information and engage in search for a solution when they encounter performance problems. We propose a Theory of Performance-driven Search (TPS) and argue that managerial search effort is a function of combined variations in unit-level performance and variations in organizational performance. We tested our theory with managerial use of business analytic systems and monthly performance data collected from seven hospitals over a period of four years. Our findings indicate that after a decline in unit-level performance, managers’ search effort is shaped by patterns of organizational performance. We also find that managers’ search response to sustained decline is quicker when decline in organizational performance is steep and sustained. Consistent with hypotheses proposed by the TPS, our findings extend our understanding of managerial search behavior and have important implications for organizations’ efforts to create business value from the use of analytic technologies. |
| Keywords: | managerial search; business analytics; aspirations; performance feedback; problemistic search |
| Date: | 2017–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:17/12&r=dcm |
| By: | Leslie G. Manison (Economist) |
| Abstract: | The results from the second wave of the Eurosysystem’s Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) indicate that Cyprus households experienced very large falls in their incomes and value of real assets between 2009/2010 and 2013/2014. However, despite their worsening financial situation households largely maintained their relatively high level of consumption during the crisis years from 2012 onward by taking on more debt and running down their financial assets. This relative failure of Cyprus households to adjust their expenditures and repair their balance sheets during recent years has resulted in huge debt problems for many households and their creditors. Indeed, HFCS estimates indicate that the ratio of required debt payments to income for Cyprus indebted households reached 35.7% in 2014 and was an overwhelming 64.1% for the least-wealthy bottom 20%. Policy recommendations for dealing with the serious financial difficulties of households are advanced including a program to write-off the debt of households which do not have the ability to repay. |
| Keywords: | household net wealth, household dissaving, household debt, middle-class squeeze, tax evasion, debt write-offs. |
| JEL: | D12 E21 E69 G29 H26 H31 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:307&r=dcm |
| By: | Daniel Berkowitz |
| Abstract: | We contend that political institutions require a high level of bureaucratic capacity, as measured by the caliber of agency heads, if they are to have their preferred policy outcomes attained. Moreover, their policy objectives can only be realized when unified partisan majorities both delegate authority and constrain its exercise by administrative institutions. Panel evidence from the American states reveals that during times of unified Republican partisan control of state executive and legislative institutions are associated with higher income gains for affluent citizens, but only when bureaucratic capacity is sufficiently high. However, rising bureaucratic capacity at its lower levels only notably reduces incomes for affluent citizens when unified Democratic party governments hold power in the American states. These findings both highlight the critical role that agency leadership exerts for attaining policy outcomes consistent with democratic preferences, and underscore the limits of electoral institutions to shape policy outcomes of their own accord. |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:6079&r=dcm |
| By: | Sharma, Rishi (Department of Economics, Colgate University) |
| Abstract: | Many countries impose taxes on foreign investors while also having in place targeted subsidies and tax incentives that are designed to attract them. This paper shows that such a policy can be optimal from the standpoint of a host country. The government has an incentive to tax inframarginal firms because they are relatively immobile. It also has an incentive to subsidize marginal firms because the economic activity generated by such a subsidy can increase domestic wages in excess of the fiscal cost of the subsidy. These tax and subsidy policies improve host country welfare at the expense of foreigners. This analysis is thus able to provide an explanation for why tax coordination efforts can simultaneously entail reduced taxes and subsidies on foreign firms. |
| Keywords: | international taxation, foreign direct investment, firm heterogeneity, tax competition |
| JEL: | H87 H25 F23 |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgt:wpaper:2016-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Gerba, Eddie; Żochowski, Dawid |
| Abstract: | The Great Recession has been characterised by the two stylized facts: the buildup of leverage in the household sector in the period preceding the recession and a protracted economic recovery that followed. We attempt to explain these two facts as an information friction, whereby agents are uncertain about a new state of the economy following a financial innovation. To this end, we extend Boz and Mendoza (2014) by explicitly modelling the credit markets and by modifying the learning to an adaptive set-up. In our model the build-up of leverage and the collateral price cycles takes longer than in a stylized DSGE model with financial frictions. The boom-bust cycles occur as rare events, with two systemic crises per century. Financial stability is achieved with an LTV-cap regulation which smooths the leverage cycles through quantity (higher equity participation requirement) and price (lower collateral value) effects, as well as by providing an anchor in the learning process of agents. JEL Classification: G14, G17, G21, G32, E44, E58 |
| Keywords: | deregulation, financial engineering, leverage forecasting, macroprudential policy, uncertainty |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172068&r=dcm |
| By: | Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Firms with low credit risk realize higher returns than firms with high credit risk. This credit risk effect in the cross-section of stock returns is a puzzle because investors appear to pay a premium for bearing credit risk. A higher credit risk can reduce a propensity to invest. The basic goal of the paper is to analyse and verify the impact of the changes of financial and nonfinancial institutions’ credit ratings on the rates of return of shares. The following hypotheses have been formed: first, differences in the strength and direction of the reaction of stock prices between financial and nonfinancial institutions have been observed. Secondly, downgrades of credit ratings have got a stronger impact on the rates of return of shares than upgrades thereof. The analysis has been constructed for European companies for the period between 1995 and 2016 using the event study method. The sample has been divided according to: the direction of changes in credit ratings, countries’ economic divisions, the character of the institution. The prepared analysis suggests that nonfinancial stock prices react to changes in credit ratings similarly to stock prices of financial institutions. The moment of reaction is differentiated by taking the level of economic development. Generally, a stronger reaction to credit rating changes in the case of companies from lower and middle economies has been observed the than from high-income countries. |
| Keywords: | financial institutions, nonfinancial institutions, event study, credit ratings, stock prices |
| JEL: | G24 F21 G14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no18&r=dcm |
| By: | Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; Gallucci Netto, Humberto; Silva, Vinícius Augusto Brunassi |
| Abstract: | Using diff-in-diff approaches and the propensity-score matching, this study focuses on firm-level Tobin´s q and Market-to-book outcomes for Brazilian firms who in 2008 were required by Law 11.638/07 to adopt the full International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by 2010. Brazil’s tier-system of corporate governance standards for publicly-traded firms, its uniquely wholesale adoption of the IFRS, and the previously considerable gap between its national GAAP and IFRS readily lend the scenario to research, which thus far finds small or inconsistent results when focused on IFRS adoption-related outcomes in Europe and China. However, while these features recommend the transitioned Brazilian equity market to analysis, additional unique features, such as its small population size and its limited historical data -- of varied quality – increase the challenge in selecting a suitable empirical methodology. Using quarterly data from 2006-2011, control firms in the Nivel II and Novo Mercado tiers of Bovespa which already complied with higher quality accounting standards are matched to treatment firms in the Regular and Nivel I tiers with similar averaged values of size and sector. Our results suggest that there is a positive impact on Tobin´s q and Market-to-book for firms who are forced to adopt IFRS in Brazil. We can observe the same results when we consider all variables winsorized at 5% level. We also find a positive relation between the firm value (measured by Tobin´s q and Market-to-book) and net income. Firms with higher net income are more likely to have higher Tobin´s q and Market-tobook. In an opposite way, we find a negative relation among firm value, size, Ebit-to-sales, sales growth and PPE-to-sales. All results are statistically significant at 1% level. ' |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:442&r=dcm |
| By: | Nelson da Silva |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at analyzing Brazil`s exports and imports quantum cyclical behavior. Data observed are on a monthly basis from 1980 to 2015. The preliminary step consisted of analyzing structural breaks and calculating the unity root test. The spectral analysis, in its turn, allowed the identification of the cyclical components of the variables. The results of the preliminary step show that export series are stationary and import ones are integrated of order 1 and indicate structural breaks occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. The spectral study shows that exports are composed of long-term cycles at level, equivalent to periods of more than 13 years. The monthly rate of import quantum presented high frequency oscillations. In general, the spectral densities estimated are robust to the seasonal method and to the sample size used |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:456&r=dcm |
| By: | Dürdane Şirin Saracoğlu (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop a dynamic model of a multi-sector economy with an informal sector and segmented labour markets first to demonstrate how informal production and employment decline in transition towards the steady state, and second to analyse the impact of various labour market policies at the steady state. Our results primarily indicate that informal employment share increases with minimum wage, and decreases with reductions in the payroll taxes, moreover, reducing the tax imposed on employer is more effective in reducing the informal employment share, while reducing the tax imposed on employee is more effective in increasing consumer felicity. |
| Keywords: | Segmented labour markets, informal employment, payroll taxes, minimum wage, dynamic modelling |
| JEL: | C61 J42 O17 O41 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1705&r=dcm |
| By: | Lionel Jeusette (University of Luxembourg, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management); Philip Verwimp (Université libre de Bruxelles); Gudrun Østby |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence points at the importance of childhood aspirations for our understanding of poverty and development. But how are these affected by the exposure to violence? This paper employs a logistic framework to study that question for Burundi, a conflict-affected, fragile state. Using data from a new nationwide survey with a panel component we distinguish between armed violence, domestic violence, violence at school and participation in violence. We find that (i) aspiring a job in the public sector is popular regardless of the type of violence; (ii) Children exposed to armed conflict have higher aspirations, defined as wishing to be employed outside of agriculture. Our results also show that these children, as well as children exposed to domestic violence, have a lower probability to fulfill their aspirations; (iii) children exposed to violence at school or children who perpetrated violence do not aspire to leave agriculture, making that their outcomes are closer to their aspirations, (iv) the differences between aspirations and outcomes for the four types of violence have a strong gender component. |
| Keywords: | aspirations, outcomes, armed violence, domestic violence, aspirations failures. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:247&r=dcm |
| By: | Lionel Jeusette; Philip Verwimp |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence points at the importance of childhood aspirations for our understanding of poverty and development. But how are these affected by the exposure to violence? This paper employs a logistic framework to study that question for Burundi, a conflict-affected, fragile state. Using data from a new nationwide survey with a panel component we distinguish between armed violence, domestic violence, violence at school and participation in violence. We find that (i) aspiring a job in the public sector is popular regardless of the type of violence; (ii) Children exposed to armed conflict have higher aspirations, defined as wishing to be employed outside of agriculture. Our results also show that these children, as well as children exposed to domestic violence, have a lower probability to fulfill their aspirations; (iii) children exposed to violence at school or children who perpetrated violence do not aspire to leave agriculture, making that their outcomes are closer to their aspirations, (iv) the differences between aspirations and outcomes for the four types of violence have a strong gender component. |
| Keywords: | aspirations; outcomes; armed violence; domestic violence; aspiration failures |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/251557&r=dcm |
| By: | Gorga, Carmine |
| Abstract: | If the Stock Market crashes, the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) ought to open the Discount Window to Main Street, by making 1. loans only for the creation of real wealth; 2. loans at cost; 3. loans to benefit as large a number of people as possible by issuing loans to individual entrepreneurs, cooperatives, corporations with ESOPs and/or CSOPs as well as to public agencies with taxing power to fund infrastructure projects. |
| Keywords: | D73, D78, E02, E32, E44, E52, E58, F53, G01, G18, G28, H12 |
| JEL: | D73 D78 E02 E32 E44 E52 E58 F53 G01 G18 G28 H12 |
| Date: | 2017–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79408&r=dcm |
| By: | Alberto Peretti (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | The problem of ranking a set of elements, namely giving a “rank” to the elements of the set, may arise in very different contexts and may be handled in some possible different ways, depending on the ways these elements are set in competition the ones against the others. For example there are contexts in which we deal with an even paired competition, in the sense the pairings are evenly matched: if we think for example of a national soccer championship, each team is paired with every other team the same number of times. Sometimes we may deal with an uneven paired competition: think for example of the UEFA Champions League, in which the pairings are not fully covered, but just some pairings are set, by means of a random selection process for example. Mathematically based ranking schemes can be used and may show interesting connections between the ranking problems and classical theoretical results. In this working paper we first show how a linear scheme in the ranki |