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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Francisco M. Gonzalez (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo); Yu Chen (University of Calgary); Matthew Doyle (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo) |
| JEL: | D8 C78 E24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wat:wpaper:1702&r=dcm |
| By: | Goyal, S.; Hernández, P.; Martínez-Cánovasz, G.; Moisan, F.; Muñoz-Herrera, M.; Sánchez, A. |
| Abstract: | Individuals prefer to coordinate with others, but they differ on the preferred action. In theory, this can give rise to an integrated society with everyone conforming to the same action or a segregated society with members of different groups choosing diverse actions. Social welfare is maximum when society is integrated and everyone conforms on the majority's action. In laboratory experiments, subjects with different preferences segregate into distinct groups and choose diverse actions. To understand the role of partner choice, we then consider an exogenous network of partners. Subjects in the experiment now choose to conform on the action preferred by the majority. Thus, there exists a tension between two deeply held values: social cohesion and freedom of association. |
| Date: | 2017–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1721&r=dcm |
| By: | Jan Dvorsky (Tomas Bata University in Zlin); Jaroslav Schonfeld (University of Economics); Eva Cipovova (Czech Technical University in Prague); Zora Petrakova (Slovak University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: One of the possibilities for entrepreneur who is trying to start-up a successful business or grow a business, is to ensure the business from an economic perspective. Entrepreneurs can use a various alternative forms of financing. Despite the wide range of programs, grants and subsidies, the most commonly used form of financing is still a loan which is provided by the bank institutions. The relationship between entrepreneurs and banking institutions is mainly connected in the area of lending and guarantees for funding. Therefore the perception and the evaluation of the credit risk by entrepreneurs contributes to a better understanding of needs of both sides. Purpose of the article: A comparison of the evaluation of factors which affect the perception and management of the credit risk by entrepreneurs. Not only socio-demographic factors (gender, level of education or age of entrepreneurs) but also the nature of corporate activities in the business environment for small and medium-sized enterprises in the Czech Republic. Methodology/methods: During data collection, method of random firm’s selection using specialized database of companies “Albertina” was used. Afterwards, the method of interview with responsible managers of the company and method of online questionnaire survey were used. Data from 1141 enterprises in 2015 from all 14 regions of the Czech Republic were collected. In the first step of our research, the descriptive statistics (pivot tables, pie charts) were conducted. Afterwards, the two-sample t-test to compare a mean values of the perceptions of credit risk factors and verify the conditions for its completion (Histogram, Q-Q plot, Goodness of Fit Test, Pearson coefficient of contingency, t- test). Findings & Value added: With an increase of the time of operating in the business environment, the amount of women as a responsible people for business management is decreasing. Entrepreneurs are united in the opinion that the importance of credit risk during the crisis increases. There are statistically significant differences between entrepreneurs by a gender and age in enterprises with a time of operating on the market between 5-10 years that the importance of credit risk during the crisis increases. |
| Keywords: | enterprise, credit risk, business environment, banks |
| JEL: | L26 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no155&r=dcm |
| By: | Curtis, John |
| Abstract: | This paper examines anglers' preferences for active stock management of pike populations within designated wild brown trout fisheries in Ireland. While the policy of pike control has a long history, it is not without controversy and conflict. As the objective of pike control is the protection of trout stocks, a superficial view might be that trout anglers favour and pike anglers oppose such management intervention. Pike and trout anglers do not have homogeneous preferences; in fact, a substantial minority of pike anglers also fish for trout and vice versa. The current paper is the first to examine Irish pike and trout anglers' preferences over fishery attributes, including pike stock control methods. Preference data was elicited by means of choice experiments for pike and trout anglers and a latent class site choice model is used to estimate anglers' utility functions. Not surprisingly model results show that pike anglers do not support pike stock control and almost universally would choose fishing sites where there are no pike stock controls, all else equal. We find that the majority of trout anglers, 61%, are negatively disposed towards pike stock control, and all else equal, are more likely to choose fishing sites where pike stocks are not actively managed. A substantial minority of trout anglers (i.e. 39%) could be considered advocates of pike control, with about one-third of these being more extreme in their preferences, with site choice probabilities of such anglers being largely determined by the pike control management option. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp563&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz Sosnowski (University of Lodz, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Firms use discretionary accounting choices to manage earnings disclosures around the time of certain types of corporate events. The IPO provides an opportunity to earnings management because of the significant information asymmetry between investors and issuers at the time of the offering. The main aim of the study is to empirically investigate the links between the earnings management and the portions of primary and secondary shares sold in IPO. In order to investigate whether the earnings management influences the issue of new shares and the sale of secondary shares I use Tobit and logit regressions, where discretionary accruals are the proxy for earnings management. Using a sample of 221 firms from WSE between 2005 and 2015 I do not find evidence that the increase of pre-IPO discretionary accruals positively affects the sale of primary shares in the IPO, but the analysis revealed that the reporting less limits the probability of the new shares issuance. In turn, the sale of secondary shares in the IPO is more likely in companies using a conservative earnings management. Furthermore, negative discretionary accruals increase the portion of secondary shares in the IPO. |
| Keywords: | Initial public offering, IPO, Primary shares, Secondary shares, Earnings management |
| JEL: | G14 G32 G23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no119&r=dcm |
| By: | Eichhorst, Werner (IZA); Rinne, Ulf (IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the current situation of youth unemployment in the European Union. In this context, the main questions are whether the European Youth Guarantee has had any effects and how the school-to-work transitions of young individuals in Europe could be improved. |
| Keywords: | labor policy, labor market institutions, vocational education and training |
| JEL: | J08 J13 J21 J24 J38 J61 J68 J88 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp128&r=dcm |
| By: | Dilla, Diana |
| Abstract: | In search for determinants of public debt, traditional economic approaches use macroeconomic and public choice models. More recent research explains public debt by debt preferences of voters and politicians. When it comes to empirical testing, however, the latter approach often suffers from the lack of suitable proxies for debt preferences. The present paper finds a remedy by using private debt as a proxy for voters’ debt mentality. The empirical analysis employs a panel data set for the German Laender and reveals that both private debt and private over-indebtedness have a significantly positive impact on public debt. |
| Keywords: | Public debt, debt preferences, private debt mentality, private debt, private overindebtedness |
| JEL: | H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2017–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79432&r=dcm |
| By: | Jonathan M.V. Davis; Sara B. Heller |
| Abstract: | This paper reports the results of two randomized field experiments, each offering different populations of youth a supported summer job in Chicago. In both experiments, the program dramatically reduces violent-crime arrests, even after the summer. It does so without improving employment, schooling, or other types of crime; if anything, property crime increases over 2-3 post-program years. To explore mechanisms, we implement a machine learning method that predicts treatment heterogeneity using observables. The method identifies a subgroup of youth with positive employment impacts, whose characteristics differ from the disconnected youth served in most employment programs. We find that employment benefiters commit more property crime than their control counterparts, and non-benefiters also show a decline in violent crime. These results do not seem consistent with typical theory about improved human capital and better labor market opportunities creating a higher opportunity cost of crime, or even with the idea that these programs just keep youth busy. We discuss several alternative mechanisms, concluding that brief youth employment programs can generate substantively important behavioral change, but for different outcomes, different youth, and different reasons than those most often considered in the literature. |
| JEL: | C53 C54 C93 I28 J24 J48 K42 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23443&r=dcm |
| By: | Narayan, Laxmi |
| Abstract: | The paper made a comprehensive analysis of public debt and outstanding liabilities on Haryana with a view to understand whether public debt is used for accelerating growth and development or it is result of misplaced spending priorities by the incumbent governments mainly by opportunistic pre-electoral manipulations. The paper analysed trends in various dimensions of public debt in Haryana such as deficit indicators, decomposition of gross fiscal deficit, financing pattern of gross fiscal deficit, composition of outstanding liabilities, uses of borrowed funds etc. for the period 1980-81 to 2015-16 using yearly data from studies of state finances report of RBI. To understand current situation of debt sustainability and trends in debt sustainability the paper used indicator based approach and econometric estimation of fiscal response function. The paper highlighted that level of debt in relation to repaying capacity of the state is not high but the uses of borrowed funds need to be directed for the productive purposes. Besides testing our main hypothesis of debt sustainability, the paper also made a comparative analysis for the pre-FRBM and post-FRBM period and also for the election cycle years and normal years. |
| Keywords: | Debt sustainability, Fiscal Sustainability, Fiscal Response Function, Public Debt, State Finance |
| JEL: | H30 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2017–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79431&r=dcm |
| By: | Perevyshin, Yuri (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the basic aspects of the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy. Analysis of theoretical studies allows to distinguish two main aspects of interaction: the choice between output and inflation, and the problem of sustainability of public debt and inflation. Using a model with Markov regime-switching, we assessed interaction of fiscal and monetary policy in the Russian economy in the period from 2006 to 2015. The analysis showed that the ongoing uncoordinated monetary and fiscal policy can lead to inflation acceleration. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031711&r=dcm |
| By: | Grzegorz Zimon (Rzeszow University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: SMEs often operate in markets where they compete with large companies. A fight for the customer, payment backlogs, problems with debt collection and new branches make management seek solutions that will influence positively on the situation of financial companies. Maintaining liquidity and generating income are the primary steps to build a competitive position and a progressive development of enterprises. One of the most popular methods that allows companies to do profitable business and increase their chances for safety is operation within group purchasing organizations. Currently in the market there are many different types of GPOs (Group Purchasing Organizations). The choice of the right one is a chance to improve their financial situation. Purpose of the article: This article presents functioning of enterprises within group purchasing organizations and their impact on financial situation of enterprises. In the article the classification of groups is done and there are shown the benefits that commercial enterprises operating in them gain. The article presents some obstacles to join specific group purchasing organizations and difficulties faced by companies operating in them. Methodology/methods: The studies will be carried out on the basis of 60 SMEs. These companies operate in five Polish GPOs. The groups were divided into branch and multi-branch ones. The study period covered the years 2013-2015. In order to analyze the impact of purchasing groups on the financial situation of enterprises there were used selected groups of financial ratios and a preliminary analysis of financial balance sheets and profit and loss account was conducted Findings: The analysis showed that the choice of an appropriate group purchasing organization has a large impact on financial situation of companies. Different opportunities can be offered by a sectoral purchasing group than the multi-sectoral one. Research has shown that better results relate to dynamics of revenues, costs, liquidity, profitability that gives the operation within the sectoral purchasing groups. |
| Keywords: | group purchasing organization; finance; commercial enterprises |
| JEL: | A11 A14 B16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no148&r=dcm |
| By: | Lillo Rodríguez, Rosa Elvira; Laniado Rodas, Henry; Cabana Garceran del Vall, Elisa |
| Abstract: | A collection of methods for multivariate outlier detection based on a robust Mahalanobis distance is proposed. The procedure consists on different combinations of robust estimates for location and covariance matrix based on shrinkage. The performance of our proposal is illustrated, through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study. The resulting high correct classification rates and low false classification rates in the vast majority of cases, and also the good computational times shows the goodness of our proposal. The performance is also illustrated with a real dataset example and some conclusions are established. |
| Keywords: | robust covariance matrix; robust location; robust estimation; high-dimension; shrinkage estimator; robust Mahalanobis distance; outlier detection |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:24613&r=dcm |
| By: | Francisco M. Gonzalez (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo); Itziar Lazkano (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee); Sjak A. Smulders (Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | We show that intergenerational altruism suffers from future bias if generations overlap and people?s altruism concerns the well-being of immediate ancestors and descendants. Future bias involves preference reversals associated with increasing impatience, which can create a con?flict of interest between current and future governments representing living generations. We explore the implications of this con?flict for intergenerational redistribution when there is a sequence of utilitarian governments choosing policies independently over time. We show that future-biased governments can have an incentive to legislate and sustain a pay-as-you-go pension system, which can be understood, from the viewpoint of every government, as a self-enforcing commitment mechanism to increase future old-age transfers. |
| JEL: | D71 D72 H55 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wat:wpaper:1703&r=dcm |
| By: | Li, Zheng |
| Abstract: | Using two-player all-pay auctions, the author fully characterizes the Nash equilibrium under a discrete bidding strategy space. In particular, he shows that under the random tiebreaking rule, the cardinality of the set of Nash equilibrium depends on the parity of the reward size and a continuum of Nash equilibria exists. Additionally, when a simple favorone-sided tie-breaking rule is used, the equilibrium solution becomes independent of the reward size. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric Nash equilibrium,all-pay auction |
| JEL: | D44 D72 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201722&r=dcm |
| By: | Lucyna Witek (Rzeszow University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Environmental pollution has led to a growing interest in protecting the environment of various stakeholder groups, especially consumers, who in their purchasing behavior point to eco-labels. The purpose of the study is to analyze consumers attitudes towards eco-labels. The direct survey method was used. The survey was conducted from 1 December 2015 to 31 January 2016 among 390 consumers who are residents of south-eastern and southern Poland. The study conducted confirms that consumers have positive attitudes toward eco-labels, but have overall and partial knowledge of them. Almost half of respondents (48.2%) buy eco-labels, but only a small group has knowledge of various eco-labels (24.9%). The recognition of EU eco-labels is declared by 43.4% of survey participants (national eco-label – 35.1%). One may notice an inconsistency in the test participant declarations. A large group of respondents believe that manufacturers use eco-labels for sales and image purposes (61%). Only one third (32.1%) have confidence in eco-labels products. Quite a large number of respondents (43.1%) are willing to pay a higher price for such products. Almost three quarters of respondents declared that they were buying products from reliable sources but without eco-labels (76.2%). This study is a valuable contribution to research and a discussion on consumer ecological behavior, and contributes to sustainable consumption research. It creates a deeper and more detailed analysis of attitudes towards eco-labelling. It gives guidance to manufacturers and retailers, especially in consumer communication strategies. The results of the study may help to increase the effectiveness of eco-labelling. The research implies some values to society and helps to solve environmental problems. |
| Keywords: | green product, sustainable consumption, eco-labelling, consumer, ecolabel |
| JEL: | D12 M31 M37 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no142&r=dcm |
| By: | Tatiana Komarova; Denis Nekipelov; Evgeny Yakovlev |
| Abstract: | It is commonplace that the data needed for econometric inference are not contained in a single source. In this paper we analyze the problem of parametric inference from combined individual-level data when data combination is based on personal and demographic identifiers such as name, age, or address. Our main question is the identification of the econometric model based on the combined data when the data do not contain exact individual identifiers and no parametric assumptions are imposed on the joint distribution of information that is common across the combined dataset. We demonstrate the conditions on the observable marginal distributions of data in individual datasets that can and cannot guarantee identification of the parameters of interest. We also note that the data combination procedure is essential in the semiparametric setting such as ours. Provided that the (non-parametric) data combination procedure can only be defined in finite samples, we introduce a new notion of identification based on the concept of limits of statistical experiments. Our results apply to the setting where the individual data used for inferences are sensitive and their combination may lead to a substantial increase in the data sensitivity or lead to a de-anonymization of the previously anonymized information. We demonstrate that the point identification of an econometric model from combined data is incompatible with restrictions on the risk of individual disclosure. If the data combination procedure guarantees a bound on the risk of individual disclosure, then the information available from the combined dataset allows one to identify the parameter of interest only partially, and the size of the identification region is inversely related to the upper bound guarantee for the disclosure risk. This result is new in the context of data combination as we notice that the quality of links that need to be used in the combined data to assure point identification may be much higher than the average link quality in the entire dataset, and thus point inference requires the use of the most sensitive subset of the data. Our results provide important insights into the ongoing discourse on the empirical analysis of merged administrative records as well as discussions on the disclosive nature of policies implemented by the data-driven companies (such as Internet services companies and medical companies using individual patient records for policy decisions) |
| Keywords: | Data protection; model identification; data combination. |
| JEL: | C13 C14 C25 C35 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:79384&r=dcm |
| By: | Tsagris, Michail |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate how to test for conditional independence of two variables with categorical data using Poisson log-linear models. The size of the conditioning set of variables can vary from 0 (simple independence) up to many variables. We also provide a function in R for performing the test. Instead of calculating all possible tables with for loop we perform the test using the log-linear models and thus speeding up the process. Time comparison simulation studies are presented. |
| Keywords: | Conditional independence, categorical data, Poisson log-linear models |
| JEL: | C12 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79464&r=dcm |
| By: | Takashi Kamihigashi (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan); Kazuhiro Seki (Faculty of Intelligence and Informatics, Konan University, Japan, and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan); Masahiko Shibamoto (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a simple approach to measuring social change using text data. The approach is based on the idea that any significant change in a society should affect the distribution of the words used in the society. Essentially we use the total variation distance between the distributions of words in adjacent months as a measure of social change during the latter month. Based on text data from the Nikkei Newspaper from 1989 to 2015, the largest social change observed in Japan during this period took place in March 2011, the month of the Great East Japan Earthquake. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2017-16&r=dcm |
| By: | Dreher, Axel; Gassebner, Martin; Schaudt, Paul |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the stock of foreigners residing in a country leads to a larger number of terrorist attacks on that country. Our instrument for the stock of foreigners relies on the interaction of two sets of variables. Variation across host-origin-dyads results from structural characteristics between the country of origin and the host, while variation over time makes use of changes in push and pull factors between host and origin countries resulting from natural disasters. Controlling for the levels of these variables themselves and fixed effects for dyads and years, the interaction provides a powerful and excludable instrument. Using data for 20 OECD host countries and 187 countries of origin over the 1980-2010 period we show that the probability of a terrorist attack increases with a larger number of foreigners living in a country. However, this scale effect is not larger than the effect domestic populations have on domestic terror. We find some evidence that terror is systematically imported from countries with large Muslim populations. A larger number of attacks against foreigners in the host country increases the risk of terror from foreigners there. We find that host country policies relating to integration and the rights of foreigners are key to fight terror- stricter policies that exclude foreigners already living in a country increase the risk of terror. High-skilled migrants are associated with a significantly lower risk of terror compared to low-skilled ones, while there is no significant difference between male and female migrants. |
| Keywords: | migration; migration policy; Terrorism |
| JEL: | D74 F22 F52 P48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12062&r=dcm |
| By: | Lamont K. Black; John Krainer; Joseph B. Nichols |
| Abstract: | When collateral is safe, there are less opportunities for things to go wrong. We examine matching between collateral and creditors in the commercial real estate mortgage market by comparing loans in commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) conduits and bank portfolios. We model CMBS financing as lower cost but less informed, such that only safe collateral is funded by CMBS. This prediction is tested using the 2007-2009 shutdown of the CMBS market as a natural experiment. The loans funded by banks that would have been securitized are less likely to default or be renegotiated, indicating that the securitization channel, when available, funds safe collateral. |
| Keywords: | Collateral ; Commercial banking ; Commercial real estate ; Securitization |
| JEL: | G21 G24 G33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-56&r=dcm |
| By: | Dean Hyslop (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Wilbur Townsend (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the longer term impacts of involuntary job loss of workers subsequent employment, earnings, and income support in New Zealand. It uses data from the Survey of Family, Income and Employment (SoFIE) to identify job displacements over the period 2001–10, matched to administrative data from Statistics New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) covering the period 1999–2015, to facilitate at least five years of post-displacement observations. Following Dixon and Maré (2013), our analysis focuses on workers who had been employed for at least one year before their job displacement. Using both regression-adjustment and propensity score matching methods, we estimate that experiencing a job displacement substantially affected workers employment, earnings and income over the following five years. Compared to workers who did not lose their jobs, we estimate their employment rate was 20-25% lower in the year following displacement and, although their employment gradually improved, was still 8-12% lower five years later. Similarly, we estimate displaced workers’ conditional earnings and total income were 25-30% lower in the first year and 13-22% lower five years after being displaced. Such adverse effects are partly counterbalanced by higher levels of welfare benefit receipt and income support: benefit receipt was 6-11% and 3-4% higher after one and five years. We also find that the impacts were stronger for workers displaced from jobs during the great recession from 2008, with about 5% larger short and longer-term effects on employment, which were balanced by 3-5% higher rates of benefit receipt. |
| Keywords: | Displaced workers, matching, SoFIE, IDI |
| JEL: | J63 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:17_12&r=dcm |
| By: | Yan-Yu Chiou; Mei-Yuan Chen; Jau-er Chen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines nonparametric regressions with an exogenous threshold variable, allowing for an unknown number of thresholds. Given the number of thresholds and corresponding threshold values, we first establish the asymptotic properties of the local-constant estimator for a nonparametric regression with multiple thresholds. We then determine the unknown number of thresholds and derive the limiting distribution of the proposed test. The Monte Carlo simulation results indicate the adequacy of the modified test and accuracy of the sequential estimation of the threshold values. We apply our testing procedure to an empirical study of the 401(k) retirement savings plan with income thresholds. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.09418&r=dcm |
| By: | Birhanu, Mulugeta Y.; Ambaw, Birhanu; Mulu, Yohannis |
| Abstract: | Empirical studies on the dynamics of multidimensional child poverty are very limited and still more research is required to understand its nature and triggering factors especially in the context of developing countries. In light of this, this paper tries to assess the dynamics of multidimensional child poverty and major factors associated with it using longitudinal data mainly collected to assess child poverty in Ethiopia. It uses multilevel mixed effect logit models that could possibly incorporates fixed and random effects to capture the effect of cluster level and time varying variables on multidimensional child poverty transition. Results of the multidimensional poverty analysis indicate that, although there were significant variations among regions, multidimensional child poverty has decreased during 2002-2009. The paper argues that multidimensional child poverty has dynamic nature that would possibly resulted from the interaction of multiple factors including household demographic, household capital (human, social and resources), household economic activities, geographic locations, and household shocks. Moreover, the study shows the relevance of considering cluster level differences during poverty analysis to generate information relevant for designing targeted policies and strategies that would help to distribute available development resources efficiently and achieve sustainable poverty reduction in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Child Poverty; Poverty dynamics, Mixed Effect; Multilevel Logit Model |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2017–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79377&r=dcm |
| By: | Pyzhov, Vladislav; Pyzhov, Stanislav |
| Abstract: | This paper is based on the work of Yeh, Lien (2009). In the paper, authors used the payment data set from the important bank in Taiwan. To build a model, the whole sample was divided in two subsets - training and testing sets - so each model could be trained on the first one and then be evaluated on the second. Our motivation was to see whether the same result could be obtained if we repeatedly apply the models to the different data sets. To do so, Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to generate these sets. |
| Keywords: | Monte-Carlo, Data Mining, Neural Networks, k-nearest neighbors, Logistic regression, Random Forest. |
| JEL: | C53 C81 C87 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79326&r=dcm |
| By: | Jennifer Lyons; Sheila Hoag; Cara Orfield; Sonya Streeter |
| Abstract: | Technical assistance (TA) is nonfinancial assistance meant to impart information, skills, and expertise from one person or entity to others. |
| Keywords: | Technical-assistance program design and implementation, evaluation, technical-assistance best practices, foundation technical assistance, technical-assistance development, technical-assistance delivery mechanisms |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:79d7029f5b8548e5831a7fae757679dc&r=dcm |
| By: | Kim Mook; Sarah Forrestal |
| Abstract: | This presentation investigates commercial locating database efficacy among a telephone survey of low-income households with children. We examine locating database coverage and review telephone accuracy by source, comparing data provided by the sample frame and two different locating databases. |
| Keywords: | Low income populations, locating, locating databases, telephone survey, database coverage |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:ba880de702b943b4843c2df3f583ce60&r=dcm |
| By: | Georgios Bampinas (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Konstantinos Ladopoulos (Citrix Systems Research & Development); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | We employ 1440 stocks listed in the S&P Composite 1500 Index of the NYSE. Three benchmark GARCH models are estimated for the returns of each individual stock under three alternative distributions (Normal, t and GED).We provide summary statistics for all the GARCH coefficients derived from 11520 regressions. The EGARCH model with GED errors emerges as the preferred choice for the individual stocks in the S&P 1500 universe when non-negativity and stationarity constraints in the conditional variance are imposed. 57% of the constraint’s violations are taking place in the S&P small cap stocks. |
| Keywords: | GARCH, GJR-GARCH, EGARCH, alternative distributions, volatility, time-series. |
| JEL: | C22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2017_04&r=dcm |
| By: | KOUJAKU Sadamori; MIYAKAWA Daisuke |
| Abstract: | Applying the exponential random graph model (Robins et al. 2007) to the investment data of Japanese venture capital (VC) firms, we document the relationship between VC performance and the dynamics of their co-investment networks. First, we find that VCs' co-investment network formation is not independent from VC characteristics. Second, VCs' past experiences of co-investments contribute to a higher likelihood of future co-investments among them, not only when VCs gain higher returns from their past co-investments but also when the jointly invested venture business companies (VBs) experience higher growth after an initial public offering (IPO). Third, such positive assortativity in terms of the returns obtained from their co-investment has become significantly weaker after the great financial crisis in 2007-2009. These results suggest that the poor financial market conditions make network structures less stiff. Fourth, somewhat puzzlingly, the positive assortativity in terms of jointly invested VBs' growth has become stronger after the great financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17084&r=dcm |
| By: | Luca Pensieroso (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Alessandro Sommacal (University of Verona, Department of Economics; Bocconi University, Dondena Centre (Welfare State and Taxation Unit)) |
| Abstract: | We show that the structural change of the economy from agriculture to industry was a major determinant of the observed shift in intergenerational coresidence. We build a two-sector overlapping generation model of the structural change out of agriculture, in which the coresidence choice is endogenous. We calibrate the model on US data and simulate it. The model can match well the decline in US intergenerational coresidence between 1870 and 1940. |
| Keywords: | living arrangements, family economics, structural change, economic development, unified growth theory |
| JEL: | O40 O11 O33 J10 E13 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2017007&r=dcm |
| By: | Luca Pensieroso (Université Catholique de Louvain); Alessandro Sommacal (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | We show that the structural change of the economy from agriculture to industry was a major determinant of the observed shift in intergenerational coresidence. We build a two-sector overlapping generation model of the structural change out of agriculture, in which the coresidence choice is endogenous. We calibrate the model on US data and simulate it. The model can match well the decline in US intergenerational coresidence between 1870 and 1940. |
| Keywords: | living arrangements, family economics, structural change, economic development, unified growth theory |
| JEL: | O40 O11 O33 J10 E13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:10/2017&r=dcm |
| By: | Patricio Hevia; César Vásquez |
| Abstract: | This document presents a characterization of the average interest rate of mortgage loans published by the Central Bank of Chile. This characterization has been done from an analysis of the level and coefficient of variation of the interest rates for different grouping of credits according to amount and term. In particular, this paper uses the data from loans for the acquisition of a property with a price adjusted by inflation (unidad de fomento, UF) for the period 2013-2016. The main result obtained is that groups according to amount and term have a different level of interest rate and dispersion. The breakdowns studied exhibit a high correlation with the aggregate rate. Therefore, the interest rate published by the Central Bank of Chile is representative of the behavior of different types of credit that exist in the mortgage market. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchee:122&r=dcm |
| By: | Yasuharu SHIMAMURA (Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University); Hiroshi NISHINO (Metrics Work Consultants Inc); Hirofumi TSURUTA (Namidabashi Lab. Co., Ltd); Keitaro AOYAGI (Metrics Work Consultants Inc) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effect of a groundwater development project in rural Zambia. Our empirical analysis using a difference-in-differences methodology under an experimental setting reveals that the project reduced the incidence of diarrhea over the past two weeks by 1.6 percentage points among individuals of all age groups and by 5.9 percentage points among children under five. This study, however, simultaneously finds that the impact of the newly constructed water supply facilities is highly likely to be impaired by recontamination of improved source water during transport and storage, which appears further deteriorated by a reduction in the use of water treatment methods at home. |
| Keywords: | waterborne disease; groundwater development; Zambia; impact evaluation; Japan International Cooperation Agency; development project |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kcs:wpaper:31&r=dcm |
| By: | Saglam, Ismail |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a new heuristic to be used as a mate search strategy in the Todd and Miller's (1999) human mate choice model. This heuristic, which we call Take the Weighted Average with the Next Desiring Date, is a plausible search rule in terms of informational assumptions, while in terms of mating likelihood it is almost as good as the most successful, yet also unrealistic, heuristic of Todd and Miller (1999), namely the Mate Value-5 rule, which assumes that agents in the mating population completely know their own mate values before interacting with any date. The success of our heuristic stems from its extreme power to lead an average agent in the mating population to always underestimate his/her own mate value during the adolescence (learning) phase of the mating process. However, this humble heuristic does not perform well in terms of marital stability. We find that the mean within-pair difference is always higher under our heuristic (possibly due to high estimation errors made in the learning phase) than under any heuristic of Todd and Miller (1999). It seems that becoming ready to pair up with agents whose mate values are well below one's own mate value pays off well in the mating phase but also incurs an increased risk of marital dissolution. |
| Keywords: | Mate Choice; Mate Search; Simple Heuristics; Agent-Based Simulation |
| JEL: | C63 J12 |
| Date: | 2017–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79448&r=dcm |
| By: | de Groot, Oliver (University of St. Andrews); Richter, Alexander (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Throckmorton, Nathaniel (College of William & Mary) |
| Keywords: | Stochastic Volatility; Epstein-Zin Preferences; Uncertainty; Economic Activity |
| JEL: | D81 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:1706&r=dcm |
| By: | Lumpe, Claudia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how beliefs of the destination country's population in social mobility may influence the location choice of high-skilled migrants. We pool macro data from the IAB brain drain dataset with population survey data from the ISSP for the period 1987-2010 to identify the effect of public beliefs in social mobility on the share of high-skilled immigrants (stocks) in the main OECD immigration countries. The empirical results suggest that countries with higher "American Dream" beliefs, i.e., with stronger beliefs that climbing the social ladder can be realized by own hard work, attracted a higher proportion of high-skilled immigrants over time. This pattern even holds against the fact that existing social mobility in these countries is relatively lower. |
| Keywords: | immigration,public beliefs,social mobility,social status |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:691&r=dcm |
| By: | SANTAEULÀLIA-LLOPIS, Raül; IORIO, Daniela; GROES, Fane; LEUNG, Man Yee Mallory |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from Denmark (1995-2009) we find that maternal education significantly determines IVF success (live birth). Compared with high school dropouts, patients with a college (high school) degree have a 24% (16%) higher chance of attaining a live birth through IVF. Our explorations of the mechanisms underlying the education gradient rule out financial considerations, clinic characteristics, and medical conditions. Instead, we argue that the education gradient in IVF reflects educational disparities in the adoption of the IVF technology. These results are important because women’s career and fertility choices are likely to be influenced by the determinants of IVF success. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, IVF, Educational disparities |
| JEL: | I12 I24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2017/05&r=dcm |
| By: | Rajapaksa, Darshana; Islam, Moinul; Managi, Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | The impact of natural disasters on inclusive growth has received little attention from empirical analyses compared to the attention focused on other growth parameters. Thus, this study considers country-level panel data (108 countries over 25 years) and estimates three econometric models to explore the nexus of natural capital depletion and climate-related natural disasters. The results indicate that the impact is nonlinear: there is an inverted ‘U’ shape for small-to-medium level disasters in which natural capital depletion is increasing. The impact of natural disasters is higher when the magnitude of resource depletion is lower or higher. Similarly, trade openness, FDI and GDP growth rate are other important determinants of natural capital. This paper provides insights into how sustainable development can be pursued by means of conserving natural resources in the face of frequent climate-related disasters. It particularly emphasizes the importance of considering small-to-medium size disasters and the threat of disaster in countries with low levels of natural capital depletion. |
| Keywords: | Natural capital, disaster, inclusive growth, sustainability, semi-parametric panel fixed effect model, fixed effect, quantile regression |
| JEL: | O1 O11 O13 O44 Q2 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79277&r=dcm |
| By: | Strittmatter, Anthony; Lechner, Michael |
| Abstract: | The disclosure of the VW emission manipulation scandal caused a quasi-experimental market shock in the observable quality of VW diesel vehicles. We consider a classical model for adverse selection and sorting to derive an empirically testable hypothesis about the impact of observable quality on the supply of used cars. We test the hypothesis with data collected from an online car selling platform which reflects about 50% of the German used-car market. The empirical approach is based on a conditional difference-in-differences method. We find that the supply of used VW diesel vehicles increases after the VW emission scandal. This finding is consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Furthermore, we find the positive supply effects increase with the probability of manipulation. |
| Keywords: | Supply of used cars, quality of durable goods, sorting, difference-in-differences, management fraud |
| JEL: | D82 L15 L62 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2017:06&r=dcm |
| By: | Grunewald, Mara |
| Abstract: | In den letzten Jahren ist die allgemeine Lebenszufriedenheit der Bürger in Deutschland gestiegen. Rund 55 Prozent geben eine hohe Zufriedenheit an, während dies vor 10 Jahren nur 35 Prozent taten. Arbeit ist ein wichtiger Zufriedenheitsmotor und macht auch im Alter glücklich. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:372017&r=dcm |
| By: | - |
| Keywords: | POLITICA ENERGETICA, POLITICA GUBERNAMENTAL, PERSONAS CON DISCAPACIDAD, DERECHOS HUMANOS, TRANSPORTE, DESARROLLO SOCIAL, ELABORACION DE POLITICAS, CONFERENCIAS, TURISMO, TRANSPORTE MARITIMO, MEDIO AMBIENTE, POLITICA FISCAL, ESTRATEGIAS DEL DESARROLLO, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, COOPERACION REGIONAL, CDCC, OBJETIVOS DE DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO, SERVICIOS FINANCIEROS, TECNOLOGIA DE LA INFORMACION, TECNOLOGIA DE LAS COMUNICACIONES, TRANSFERENCIA ELECTRONICA DE FONDOS, INTERNET, TELECOMUNICACIONES, CONDICIONES POLITICAS, CULTURA, ENERGY POLICY, GOVERNMENT POLICY, PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES, HUMAN RIGHTS, TRANSPORT, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, POLICY MAKING, CONFERENCES, TOURISM, MARITIME TRANSPORT, ENVIRONMENT, FISCAL POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, REGIONAL COOPERATION, CDCC, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL SERVICES, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY, ELECTRONIC FUNDS TRANSFER, INTERNET, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, POLITICAL CONDITIONS, CULTURE |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col095:41501&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Murawska (Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy im. Jana i Jedrzeja Œniadeckich w Bydgoszczy, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Poziom wyksztalcenia ludnosci odgrywa istotna role jako uwarunkowanie dobrej pracy i godziwego wynagrodzenia i w konsekwencji jest jednym z podstawowych czynnikow wplywajacych na rozwoj gospodarczy oraz poziom i jakosc zycia. Glownym celem badañ jest okreslenie zaleznosci pomiedzy poziomem wyksztalcenia ludnosci w poszczegolnych krajach czlonkowskich Unii Europejskiej, a sytuacja na rynku pracy, w szczegolnosci poziomem zatrudnienia oraz bezrobocia. Zaleznosci pomiedzy analizowanymi wskaznikami oraz istniejace roznice i dystanse pomiedzy krajami przedstawiono dla trzech grup: 28 krajow czlonkowskich (UE-28), „starej” 15-stki (UE-15) oraz „nowych” 13-stu krajow europejskich, ktore staly sie czlonkami UE od 2004 roku (UE-13).Do oceny podjetej problematyki uwzgledniono wskazniki charakteryzujace poziom wyksztalcenia oraz zatrudnienia i bezrobocia ludnosci. Zrodlem danych empirycznych byly informacje pochodzace z Europejskiego Urzedu Statystycznego. Analizie poddano 28 krajow Unii Europejskiej. Okresem badawczym byly lata 2006-2015. Obliczono miedzy innymi wspolczynniki zmiennosci, dynamiki i korelacji. W celu dokonania opisu danych statystycznych zastosowano metode opisowa, porownawcza i tabelaryczna. Stare kraje czlonkowskie Unii Europejskiej (UE-15), w porownaniu do grupy nowych krajow UE-13, zamieszkuje istotnie wiecej osob bez wyksztalcenia lub posiada je na najnizszym poziomie, oraz rownoczesnie istotnie wiekszy jest odsetek osob z wyksztalceniem wyzszym. W zakresie poziomu wyksztalcenia podstawowego, sredniego i wyzszego dystans pomiedzy starymi i nowymi krajami UE nieznacznie zmniejsza sie, poglebia sie natomiast w zakresie odsetka mlodych ludzi, ktorzy nie pracuja i nie ucza sie oraz wskaznika uczestnictwa w ksztalceniu sie osob doroslych, na niekorzysc nowych pañstw czlonkowskich. Roznice w poziomie wyksztalcenia znajduja swoje odzwierciedlenie w skali zatrudnienia i bezrobocia ludnosci. |
| Keywords: | wyksztalcenie, zatrudnienie, bezrobocie, poziom, wplyw, zroznicowanie, kraje, Unia Europejska |
| JEL: | I24 I25 J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no82&r=dcm |
| By: | Yair Tauman; Chang Zhao |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-05&r=dcm |
| By: | Kebalo, Léleng |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of the high economic openness of West African economies coupled with liability dollarization, on their economic activities. By using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in a small open economy framework, and performing an experiment based on a case of moderate economic openness and another case on the high economic openness, we find that the high economic openness of west african economies constitutes a brake for their economic progress. This external constraint annihilates the effects of the economic policies implemented to stimulate economic growth, and consequently create macroeconomic imbalances. For small countries like those in West Africa, a moderate economic openness would be advantageous because it would allow them to develop a domestic market that presents many economic advantages and above all, to protect it from foreign competition. It is necessary to decrease now this dependency in order to avoid a polarization of economic blocks after the creation of a Currency Union in West Africa. |
| Keywords: | Economic openness, Financial liberalization, economic growth, Economic integration, Financial accelerator, DSGE model |
| JEL: | E32 E66 F34 F41 F43 F44 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79442&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Zabkowicz (Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The privatized and capitalized old-age insurance in Chile has recently witnessed reforms under President Bachelet which extended the social safety net as well as re-introduced publicly-administered programs on behalf of retirees. The article reviews the performance of the system up to the most recent reform and presents results of pension engineering in a systematic way in attempt to estimate the scope of change. The method relies on orderly analysis which is founded on review of the literature relevant to the subject. Bringing the state back into Chile's pension system can be viewed as a plan to subsidize total retirement benefits in order to improve the distressing rates of replacement and, in such indirect way, to support the longevity of privately-managed pension funds. |
| Keywords: | the political economy of pension reforms - funded pensions - solidarity benefits |
| JEL: | P16 B52 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no146&r=dcm |
| By: | Rohit Azad (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:1719&r=dcm |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | L’essor de l'économie touristique se heurte à des difficultés liées non seulement à la situation économique mondiale, à la baisse des budgets, aux taux de change fluctuants, mais aussi à des bouleversements économiques et technologiques tendanciels plus profonds, sources de turbulences supplémentaires sur le marché. Plusieurs pays étudient donc de nouveaux modèles, notamment des stratégies numériques, permettant de relier la politique du tourisme, la commercialisation du tourisme et le développement des produits. Le rapport examine certains des défis auxquels sont actuellement confrontées les autorités publiques responsables de la commercialisation et de la promotion du tourisme, ainsi que les perspectives offertes dans ce domaine, pour ce qui est de la recherche de nouvelles sources de financement, des possibilités de partenariat, des stratégies de promotion et des systèmes de gouvernance. Ce rapport a bénéficié d'importantes contributions et apports de 16 pays: Afrique du Sud, Australie, Danemark, Estonie, Finlande, France, Islande, Israël, Italie, Lettonie, Philippines, Pologne, Portugal, Royaume-Uni, Slovénie, et Suède. Les études de cas sur les pays offrent des exemples d'initiatives prises par les pouvoirs publics et les entreprises pour relever ces défis. |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaad:2017/1-fr&r=dcm |
| By: | Abel Brodeur (University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); Kerry Nield (Bank of Canada, Ottawa, ON) |
| Abstract: | In New York City (NYC), it has been a common complaint that it is difficult to find a taxi in the rain. Using all Uber rides in NYC from April to September 2014 and January 2015 to December 2016, we show that the number of Uber rides is significantly correlated with whether it rained. The number of Uber rides per hour is about 18 percent higher when it is raining, suggesting that surge pricing encourages an increase in supply. During the same time period, the number of taxi rides per hour increases by only 5 percent in rainy hours. We then show that the number of taxi rides, passengers and fare income all significantly decreased after Uber entered the New York market in May 2011, suggesting that Uber is depressing taxi demand. Last, we test whether the total (Uber plus taxi) number of rides in rainy hours increased since May 2011. Our estimates suggest that it is relatively easier to get a ride in rainy than in non-rainy hours in post-Uber years. |
| Keywords: | Persistence, Rain, Uber, Taxi, Dynamic Pricing |
| JEL: | D01 D03 L92 J22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:1708e&r=dcm |
| By: | Artyom Jelnov; Yair Tauman; Richard Zeckhauser |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-01&r=dcm |
| By: | José Manuel Vassallo; Armando Ortuño; Ofelia Betancor |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo se ha llevado a cabo una aproximación macro al cálculo de las cuentas de los modos de transporte interurbanos en España. Las cuentas se han calculado para el año 2013, al ser este el último año para el que existe información estadística completa. Este trabajo aporta información de interés para la evaluación del funcionamiento de las infraestructuras y servicios de transporte en nuestro país. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2017-14&r=dcm |
| By: | Davide De Gaetano |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes some weighting schemes to average forecasts across different estimation windows to account for structural changes in the unconditional variance of a GARCH (1,1) model. Each combination is obtained by averaging forecasts generated by recursively increasing an initial estimation window of a fixed number of observations v. Three different choices of the combination weights are proposed. In the first scheme, the forecast combination is obtained by using equal weights to average the individual forecasts; the second weighting method assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information; the third is a trimmed version of the forecast combination with equal weights where a fixed fraction of forecasts with the worst performance are discarded. Simulation results show that forecast combinations with high values of v are able to perform better than alternative schemes proposed in the literature. An application to real data confirms the simulation results |
| Keywords: | Forecast combinations, Structural breaks, GARCH models. |
| JEL: | C53 C58 G17 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0219&r=dcm |
| By: | Henrike Junge |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwddc:dd89&r=dcm |
| By: | Michał Dzieliński; Alexander F. Wagner; Richard J. Zeckhauser |
| Abstract: | Managers conducting earnings conference calls display distinctive styles in their word choice. Some CEOs and CFOs are straight talkers. Others, by contrast, are vague talkers. Vague talkers routinely use qualifying words indicating uncertainty, such as “approximately”, “probably”, or “maybe”. Analysts and the stock market attend to the style of managerial talk. They find earnings news less informative when managers are vague; they respond less and more slowly as a result. Thus, quantitative information and straightforward contextual information prove to be complements. Vague communications have the potential benefit of tamping down over-optimistic analysts expectations. |
| JEL: | G14 G30 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23425&r=dcm |
| By: | Marco Faillo; Costanza Piovanelli |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to investigate experimentally whether and to what extent subjects’ intrinsic motivation and performance change when they are allowed to self-set their own wage for performing a task; moreover, it investigates how differently motivated people react to the possibility of deter- mining their own wage. We propose a novel experimental design, in which the subjects are asked to perform a complex real-effort task under two different conditions: wages can be either chosen by the subjects themselves, or randomly determined. With this setting, we are able to disentangle intrinsic motivation from the reciprocity concerns that are likely to characterize the standard principal-agent interaction. Our main result is that subjects increase their performance more when they are delegated the wage choice than when they receive a random payment; moreover, subjects who are both highly motivated and delegated their wage choice are those who perform better. Finally, subjects with higher motivation ask for lower wages. |
| Keywords: | Compensation, Incentives, Delegation, Motivation, Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 J33 M52 M54 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpce:1701&r=dcm |
| By: | Stacey H. Chen (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Yu-Kuan Chen (Teach-for-Taiwan Association); Huey-Min Wu (National Academy for Educational Research, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | Datasets of schools or hospitals often include an urban-rural divide drawn by government. Such partition is typically determined by subjective thresholds for a few variables, such as access to transportation and local population size, leaving aside relevant factors despite datavailability. We propose to measure eremoteness f by mapping a comprehensive set of covariates onto a scalar, and define an objective score of remoteness using a standard selection model. We apply the proposed method to data from Taiwanese public elementary schools. Our method replaces 35% and 47% respectively of the current official list of eremote f and eextra-remote f campuses, shifting the remoteness designation to those furthest from train stations, having the highest teacher vacancy percentages, and located in the least populous areas with the least well-educated populations. The campus- and district-level variables used are publicly available and periodically updated in most advanced economies, and the statistical model can be easily implemented. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:17-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Joint Research Center of the European Commission - IPTS |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the economic impact of the European Commission proposal for a common corporate tax base (CCTB) and a common consolidated corporate tax base with formula apportionment (CCCTB) within the EU. Furthermore, on top of the common base, it considers proposals to reduce the debt bias in corporate taxation. To do so, we employ an applied general equilibrium model (CORTAX) covering all EU Member States, featuring different firm types and modelling many key features of corporate tax regimes, including multinational profit shifting, investment decisions, loss compensation and the debt-equity choice of firms. |
| Keywords: | corporate taxation, CGEM, debt-bias, European Union |
| JEL: | H25 H26 H68 H87 C68 |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxpap:0066&r=dcm |
| By: | Pradeep Dubey; Yair Tauman |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-02&r=dcm |
| By: | Nelson, Katherine M.; Schlüter, Achim; Vance, Colin |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of participants' distributional preferences on donations of money and time using a field experiment with marine resource users in Indonesia. Individuals participate in a real effort task to earn money and are faced with a donation decision under different treatments - monetary donation, time donation, monetary match, and time match. In the distributional preferences elicitation we classify individuals' preferences as benevolent, egalitarian, own-money-maximizing, and spiteful. We find that the different distributional preference types are a significant indicator of participants' donation behavior. The people showing spiteful preferences and those that focus only on maximizing their own payoff are less likely to donate any amount compared to those that make egalitarian choices. Furthermore, we find strong evidence that individuals that choose payoff structures characterized as "benevolent" donate a significantly higher amount compared to the egalitarian types. We analyze the results econometrically in two-stages to better understand the determining factors for whether an individual donates and those factors that determine how much one donates. Practical implications involve the segmentation of the target audience, not by the type of charity but by the mechanism which motivates their donation behavior. |
| Keywords: | distributional preferences,donations,field experiment |
| JEL: | Q22 Z1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:690&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz Berent (Warsaw School of Economics); Boguslaw Blawat (Kozminski University); Marek Dietl (Warsaw School of Economics); Radoslaw Rejman (Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Bankruptcy literature is populated with scores of (econometric) models ranging from Altman’s Z-score, Ohlson’s O-score, Zmijewski’s probit model to k-nearest neighbors, classification trees, support vector machines, mathematical programming, evolutionary algorithms or neural networks, all designed to predict financial distress with highest precision. Purpose of the article: We believe corporate default is too an important research topic to be identified with the prediction accuracy only. Despite the wealth of modelling effort, a unified theory of default is yet to be proposed. Due to the disagreement, both on the definition and hence the timing of default as well as on the measurement of prediction accuracy, the comparison (of predictive power) of various models can be seriously misleading. The purpose of the article is to argue for the shift in research focus from maximizing accuracy to the analysis of the information capacity of predictors. By doing this, we may yet come closer to understand default itself. Methodology/methods: We have critically appraised the bankruptcy research literature for its methodological variety and empirical findings. Default definitions, sampling procedures, in and out-of-sample testing and accuracy measurement have all been scrutinized. We believe the bankruptcy models currently used are, using the language of Feyerabend, incommensurable. Findings: Instead of what we call the population of models paradigm (the comparison of predictive power of different models) prevailing today, we propose the model of population paradigm, consisting in the estimation a single unified default forecasting platform for both listed and non-listed firms, and analyze the marginal contribution of the different information sources. In addition to classical corporate financial data, information on both firm's strategic position and its macroeconomic environment should be studied. |
| Keywords: | default, bankruptcy, default probability; prediction accuracy, informational capacity |
| JEL: | C53 E47 G33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no158&r=dcm |
| By: | Yair Tauman; Yoram Weiss; Chang Zhao |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Nicolas Véron |
| Abstract: | The banking crisis in the euro area, which started in mid-2007 and has yet to be fully resolved, has sparked considerable debate and reform, most notably the initiation of banking union starting in mid-2012. But one issue that has been largely overlooked in the debate is the peculiar ownership and governance structures of euro-area banks. European policymakers and analysts often appear to assume that most banks are publicly listed companies with ownership scattered among many institutional investors (‘dispersed ownership’), a structure in which no single shareholder has a controlling influence and that allows for considerable flexibility to raise capital when needed (‘capital flexibility’). This Policy Contribution shows, however, that listed banks with dispersed ownership are the exception rather than the rule among the euro area’s significant banks , especially if one looks beyond the very largest banking groups. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:20703&r=dcm |
| By: | Nicolas Véron |
| Abstract: | The banking crisis in the euro area, which started in mid-2007 and has yet to be fully resolved, has sparked considerable debate and reform, most notably the initiation of banking union starting in mid-2012. But one issue that has been largely overlooked in the debate is the peculiar ownership and governance structures of euro-area banks. European policymakers and analysts often appear to assume that most banks are publicly listed companies with ownership scattered among many institutional investors (‘dispersed ownership’), a structure in which no single shareholder has a controlling influence and that allows for considerable flexibility to raise capital when needed (‘capital flexibility’). This Policy Contribution shows, however, that listed banks with dispersed ownership are the exception rather than the rule among the euro area’s significant banks , especially if one looks beyond the very largest banking groups. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polbrf:20703&r=dcm |
| By: | Dongwon Lee (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Kyungkeun Kim |
| Keywords: | Diminishing returns; Exchange rate volatility; Global financial crisis; International reserves |
| JEL: | F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201705&r=dcm |
| By: | Kyle Bergquist (Economics and Statistics Division, World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.); Julio Raffo (Economics and Statistics Division, World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.); Carsten Fink (World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.) |
| Keywords: | innovation; clusters; innovation geography; patents. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wip:wpaper:34&r=dcm |
| By: | Zolotareva, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The article deals with the problems of functioning of consolidated groups of taxpayers and the prospects for reforming the institute of tax consolidation taking into account foreign experience. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031713&r=dcm |
| By: | Nor, Amirudin Mohd; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the causal relationship between Islamic banks’ non-performing financing (NPF) and conventional banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) for the banking industry in Malaysia. To further understand these asset quality variables, we added domestic macroeconomic variables namely domestic credit, real lending rate and exchange rate for the period January 2007 to January 2017. Using time series cointegrating VAR models, coupled with the Long Run Structural Modelling (LRSM), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Variance Decompositions (VDC), the results tend to suggest that NPF leads NPL. Contrary to expectation, the VDC results suggest that NPF and NPL variables are leading and lagging respectively. This unexpected result gives rise to many interesting arguments especially within the Islamic banking perspectives. Apart from providing important insights into the causality between NPF and NPL, our results contribute to the policy implications. Interest rate variable being the most leading variable may be used to affect both NPFs and NPLs. |
| Keywords: | non-performing financing, non-performing loans, causality, LRSM |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2017–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79425&r=dcm |
| By: | Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); He, Ming (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Rudkin, Simon (SHU-UTS SILC Business School, University of Shanghai) |
| Abstract: | Economists talk of agglomeration bene ting rms but little work has sought to understand the impact various consequences of close location of rms has on productivity. Using unconditional quantile regression for the rst time in productivity we revisit the Chinese Industry Survey, from 1999 to 2007, to ask (a) how does spatial competition, local diversity, population density and regional specialisation impact across the productivity distribution, and (b) how have these effects changed through China's opening up to foreign direct investment. High productivity firms bene t more from specialist agglomerations, monopoly and can take larger advantage of market size compared to those which are less productive. |
| Keywords: | Unconditional Quantile Regression, Manufacturing Productivity, China, Agglomeration. |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Thomas Collerton (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Andrea Marrella (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Massimo Mecella (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Tiziana Catarci (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Business travellers are those people who attend work-related meetings and in their few hours of spare time would like to see the best that the host city can offer in terms of cultural activities and sightseeings. In this work we present a complex architecture, consisting of mobile applications and back-end server components, which supports such a type of users in recommending possible routes within their constraints. The three main contributions are (i) a set of machine learning algorithms that can be used to detect a queuing state of a user with a high degree of accuracy, (ii) how to determine user’s positioning, and (iii)how to practically realize a planner providing a reasonably good enough route plan within a handful of seconds. Preliminary tests demonstrate that the single components of the proposed architecture are feasible and provide good results. |
| Keywords: | planning ; crowd-sourced data ; cultural heritage ; smart tourism |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aeg:report:2017-07&r=dcm |
| By: | Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto |
| Abstract: | Em 15 de dezembro de 1976, nova lei das sociedades por ações (S.As.) introduziu, entre outras inovações, a exigência de distribuição mínima obrigatória de resultados anuais ('dividendo mínimo obrigatório'). O presente trabalho considera, como referência conceitual, a chamada teoria residual da política de dividendos, segundo a qual os dividendos são determinados pelo que sobraria após a otimização de decisões tanto de investimento quanto de financiamento. Com o dividendo mínimo obrigatório, introduziu-se uma restrição a esse comportamento por parte das empresas. É testada a hipótese de que a restrição afetou o nível de investimento das empresas, o que é parcialmente confirmado por um termo de interação com o de pagamento de dividendos. É usado um enfoque de 'diferenças em diferenças', com dados contábeis de 233 companhias abertas no período de 1973 a 1980. |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:446&r=dcm |
| By: | Shaofeng Xu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs. The model shows that a rise in volatility can decelerate growth in the absence of any level shocks. In contrast to level risk, which is always welfare reducing for a risk-averse household, volatility risk can increase or decrease welfare, depending on model parameters. When calibrated to U.S. data, the model finds that the welfare cost of volatility risk is largely negligible under plausible model parameterizations. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models |
| JEL: | E2 E3 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:17-20&r=dcm |
| By: | Juan-Francisco Martínez; Rodrigo Cifuentes; Juan Sebastián Becerra |
| Abstract: | The stress tests are tools widely used by commercial banks, bank supervisors, central banks and international organizations, each of them with different objectives. The Central Bank of Chile uses them to evaluate potential impacts of aggregate shocks on the stability of the banking system as a whole. The development of these tests at this institution began more than a decade ago and now includes market and credit risks. Over the years, substantial progress has been made in both the estimation methodology and the data used, as well as in the delivery of the results. In the present update, the probabilities associated to the stress scenario are estimated. As for the model, its statistical significance is improved by including additional variables suggested by economic theory. In addition, it includes a section of indicators that support the reading and interpretation of the results. Thus, this document provides a detailed review of recent improvements and identifies potential improvements. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:801&r=dcm |
| By: | Roel Henckaerts; Katrien Antonio; Maxime Clijsters; Roel Verbelen |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:afiper:583471&r=dcm |
| By: | Roel Henckaerts; Katrien Antonio; Maxime Clijsters; Roel Verbelen |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:kbiper:583471&r=dcm |
| By: | Francis Bloch (Université Paris 1 and Paris School of Economics); David Cantala (El Colegio de México); Damián Gibaja (Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla) |
| Abstract: | We model a matching market with institutions -inspired by the assignment of social housing in Paris- as a three-sided market. Institutions own objects and have agents attached to them. Agents have preferences over objects. Objects have priorities over institutions. We show that fair assignments satisfying distributional constraints may fail to exist, and propose a sufficient condition -the over-demand condition- under which we prove existence. Existence derives from the construction of a new algorithm, the Nested Deferred Acceptance (NDA) algorithm, which combines a one-to-one matching between agents and objects and a one-to-many matching between objects and institutions. If interrupters are eliminated from the preference list, as in Kesten (2010), the NDA algorithm produces an assignment which is fair, Pareto optimal among fair assignments and strategy-proof for agents. |
| Keywords: | matching, institutions, deferred acceptance algorithm, social housing |
| JEL: | C78 D47 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2017-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Tsyganov, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pavlova, Nataliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The institutional design of the competition authority is an important element of a successful state competition policy. At the same time, there is no doubt that "one size does not fit everyone", and the optimal choice between different structural alternatives will depend on the specific features of the economy and the institutional environment of a particular country. In the case of the multifunctionality of the antimonopoly body, specific benefits and risks appear that need to be taken into account when reforming the structure of the state apparatus. The article describes the main factors that can influence the choice of a design variant of a multi-functional antimonopoly body, and also analyzes the experience of the latest changes in the structure of the powers of the OECD antitrust authorities. Based on the analysis, several recommendations are proposed in the light of recent changes in the functions of the Federal Antimonopoly Service. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031704&r=dcm |
| By: | Hentze, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Der Staat beansprucht einen stetig wachsenden Anteil der Wirtschaftskraft für sich. Während der Anteil der Steuereinnahmen am Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach der Kassenstatistik im Jahr 2016 bei 22,5 Prozent lag, waren es 2004 noch 3 Prozentpunkte weniger. Dabei steigt vor allem die Steuerquote der Bundesländer. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:382017&r=dcm |
| By: | Aleksandra Pieloch-Babiarz (University of Lodz, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Making decisions concerning the payout policy depends on many diversified neoclassical and behavioral determinants. Although these factors are well-described in the literature, there is still a research gap concerning the lack of a comprehensive impact model of payout policy determinants on the investment attractiveness of shares. The aim of this paper is to present the diverse nature of relationships between different forms of cash transfer to the shareholders and investments attractiveness of public companies in the context of determinants of payout policy. The possibility to achieve this objective was conditioned by empirical verification of research hypothesis stating that the diversify of payout forms is accompanied by the different determinants of payout policy which condition an effective investment of stock investors capital. The empirical research was conducted on the electromechanical companies which were listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in years 2006-2015. The data for analysis were mainly collected from database Notoria Service SA and Stock Exchange Yearbooks. The calculations were carried out using the methodology of taxonomic measure of investment attractiveness, as well as dividend premium and share repurchase premium. The final conclusion of our research is that the companies conducting the payout policy in different forms of cash transfer differ in terms of many characteristics, such as: financial standing, market value, ownership structure, company’s size and age. Moreover, their investment attractiveness differs according to regularity of payment, stock exchange situation and shareholders preferences. The value added of this paper is a new approach to the evaluation of capital investment with a special emphasis on the determinants of payout policy. |
| Keywords: | determinants of payout policy; investment attractiveness; dividend; share repurchase |
| JEL: | G02 G10 G35 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no91&r=dcm |
| By: | Edward Oughton (Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a compendium of the key issues currently facing digital communications and reviews their relevance for the UK's National Infrastructure Assessment of digital infrastructure. The methodology focuses on taking a horizon scanning approach to obtaining current information from a range of authoritative decision-makers across industry, government and academia. After structuring the issues identified, these areas were examined in detail by a multi-disciplinary research team covering engineering, economics and computer science. The key finding shows that future demand uncertainty is the major issue affecting the digital communications sector and holding back increased investment. Moreover, this uncertainty is being driven primarily by the relatively rigid willingness to pay of end-users, the shift from fixed to wireless forms of access, and the ongoing convergence in digital applications and services. The key contribution of this paper is not just to illustrate the issues and trends within the digital communications sector, but also to identify the need for more research to understand how the sensitivity of future demand affects infrastructure performance and cost under different demographic, economic and technical scenarios. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jbs:wpaper:201702&r=dcm |
| By: | Buquet Corleto, Ana Gabriela; Moreno, Hortensia |
| Abstract: | La educación técnico-profesional viene experimentado transformaciones sustantivas en la región, aunque con diferentes ritmos y grados de concreción en cada país. En las últimas décadas a la par que se asiste a una incorporación masiva de las mujeres al mercado de trabajo, se registra una tendencia creciente de la elección de carreras técnicas y, en consecuencia, un aumento de la matrícula en el nivel de formación media y superior. No obstante sus niveles de capacitación y habilidades, las mujeres siguen en desventaja de cara al acceso al trabajo, a las condiciones laborales y a las brechas salariales, sobre todo en aquellas áreas que aún preservan una identidad particularmente masculina. En este contexto, el estudio indaga sobre las coordenadas históricas y actuales de la educación técnica o tecnológica en México y su vinculación con el sector productivo. Desde un enfoque cualitativo, se analizan las trayectorias de mujeres egresadas de la educación técnica o tecnológica de diferentes generaciones, perfiles profesionales y situaciones laborales, poniendo de relieve los desafíos por delante, las barreras y estereotipos culturales que obstaculizan sus logros, las oportunidades que han generado en estos tránsitos, y los impactos en sus autonomías. A través del conocimiento producido sobre la situación de estas mujeres se espera contribuir al diseño de políticas públicas que coadyuven al acceso, permanencia y movilidad de las mujeres, tanto en la educación técnica como en el ámbito laboral, en condiciones de mayor igualdad. |
| Keywords: | MUJERES, ENSEÑANZA TECNICA, ENSEÑANZA PROFESIONAL, EDUCACION DE LA MUJER, IGUALDAD DE GENERO, EMPLEO DE LA MUJER, DATOS ESTADISTICOS, WOMEN, TECHNICAL EDUCATION, VOCATIONAL EDUCATION, WOMEN'S EDUCATION, GENDER EQUALITY, WOMEN'S EMPLOYMENT, STATISTICAL DATA |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col040:41567&r=dcm |
| By: | Agnieszka Piekutowska (Uniwersytet w Bialymstoku, Poland); Monika Fiedorczuk (Uniwersytet w Bialymstoku, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Szereg zmian w kierunku wiekszej otwartosci na naplyw obcokrajowej sily roboczej podjetych w ostatnich latach w Federacji Rosyjskiej sklania do analiz imigracji do tego kraju. Przyjete rozwiazania w sferze polityki migracyjnej nie pozostaja bowiem bez wplywu na inne regiony docelowe (np. UE). Liberalizacja w zakresie dostepu migrantow do rosyjskiego rynku pracy wpisuje sie bowiem w szerszy problem: konkurencji (w skali miedzynarodowej) o naplyw zagranicznej sily roboczej. W tym kontekscie, warte zbadania jest jak kryzys, ktory dotknal gospodarke rosyjska, wplynal na ksztaltowanie sie skali imigracji do Rosji z glownych panstw wysylajacych, tj. z krajow Wspolnoty Niepodleglych Panstw (WNP). Celem artykulu jest ukazanie wplywu kryzysu, jaki dotknal gospodarke rosyjska w ostatnich latach na skale imigracji z panstw WNP do Rosji. Glowna hipoteza przyjmuje nastepujace brzmienie: czynnikiem wyjasniajacym imigracje z panstw WNP do Rosji jest zroznicowanie poziomu dobrobytu mierzonego PKB per capita (PPP) pomiedzy panstwem wysylajacym a panstwem docelowym. Zalozenie ukazania wplywu kryzysu gospodarczego w Rosji na imigracje do tego kraju implikuje zastosowanie analizy korelacji i analizy regresji. Jak zostanie wykazane, pomimo spadku PKB w Rosji imigracja do Rosji z panstw WNP nie spada. Jest to zatem zaleznosc odmienna od zalozen ekonomii neoklasycznej, zgodnie z ktora zmniejszenie zroznicowania w poziomie dobrobytu miedzy panstwem wysylajacym a docelowym powoduje zmniejszenie skali migracji miedzynarodowych. Jak zostanie wyjasnione, nie we wszystkich panstwach WNP skala migracji do Rosji moze byc wyjasniona zroznicowaniem poziomu PKB per capita, a glownego znaczenia w ksztaltowaniu skali migracji do Rosji nabieraja m. in. czynniki polityczne, konflikty czy procesy naturalizacji. |
| Keywords: | kryzys; gospodarka rosyjska; migracje; pañstwa WNP |
| JEL: | H12 F22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no90&r=dcm |
| By: | Agnieszka Matuszewska-Pierzynka (University of Lodz Poland) |
| Abstract: | Empirical research on the influence of the degree of ownership concentration in the employee–owned companies on their sales revenues thematically fits into the issue of efficiency of the direct privatisation method, in particular giving a state–owned enterprise for use against payment. The main goal of this article is to verify the research hypothesis stating that in employee–owned companies an increase in the degree of ownership concentration leads to an increase in sales revenues. In conducted empirical studies parameters of a Cobb–Douglas production function were estimated by Ordinary Least Squares method for two variants, differing in the way of measuring the degree of ownership concentration. The research hypothesis formulated in this paper was verified negatively as the increase in the degree of ownership concentration in employee–owned companies caused the decrease in their sales revenues. |
| Keywords: | privatisation process; direct privatisation; employee–owned company; productivity; ownership structure |
| JEL: | D24 G32 L33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no73&r=dcm |
| By: | Boly, Amadou; Gillanders, Robert |
| Abstract: | Experimental studies have shown that deterrence (monitoring and punishment) can be an effective anti-corruption policy. Even when they themselves stand to lose, policymakers may enact deterrence policies with real teeth ... However, policymakers' legitimacy is crucial: a given deterrence policy is more effective when chosen by an honest policymaker as opposed to a corrupt one. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:pegnpb:92017&r=dcm |
| By: | Dorota Milek (Politechnika Œwietokrzyska, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Wieloaspektowosc pojecia rozwoju regionalnego wynika bezposrednio z wielosci czynnikow go ksztaltujacych. Wspolczesnie podkresla sie znaczenie czynnikow endogenicznych, ktore wskazuja na specyfike i wyroznianie sie terytorium. Mobilizowanie potencjalu endogenicznego zapewnia trwala dynamike rozwoju regionalnego. Aktualnie jednym z podstawowych problemow wspolczesnej gospodarki jest wzrastajacy poziom zroznicowania rozwoju poszczegolnych regionow. Celem artykulu jest ocena zroznicowania poziomu rozwoju spoleczno-gospodarczego w polskich regionach w latach 2010 i 2015, wyodrebnienie rankingu jednostek wedlug poziomu rozwoju oraz wskazanie grup wojewodztw o zblizonym poziomie rozwoju. Przyjete do badañ wskazniki zostaly usystematyzowane wedlug nastepujacych obszarow: Demografia i rynek pracy, Przedsiebiorczosc regionalna, Struktura gospodarki regionalnej, Dzialalnosc innowacyjna i badawczo-rozwojowa, Infrastruktura techniczna i spoleczna oraz Stan i ochrona srodowiska naturalnego. Do oceny poziomu rozwoju spol.-gosp. regionow w Polsce zastosowano metode wzorca rozwoju Z. Hellwiga, ktora umozliwila porzadkowanie wojewodztw ze wzgledu na poziom ich rozwoju. Uzupelnienie stanowi metoda grupowania Warda, ktora pozwolila na wyodrebnienie podobnych wojewodztw pod wzgledem analizowanego zjawiska. Przeprowadzona analiza pozwolila na zidentyfikowanie zmian w procesach rozwoju spol.-gosp. polskich regionow. Wyodrebniono grupy wojewodztw o najwyzszym, wysokim, niskim i najnizszym poziomie rozwoju. |
| Keywords: | region, rozwoj regionalny, zroznicowania regionalne, metoda Hellwiga, metoda Warda |
| JEL: | B16 O11 O18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no81&r=dcm |
| By: | Ali Ozdagli; Michael Weber |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy shocks have a large impact on stock returns in narrow windows around press releases by the Federal Reserve. We use spatial autoregressions to decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct effect and an indirect (network) effect. We attribute 50%-85% of the overall effect to indirect effects. The decomposition is a robust feature of the data and we confirm large indirect effects in realized cash-flow fundamentals. A simple model with intermediate inputs guides our empirical strategy. Our findings indicate that production networks might be an important propagation mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy. |
| JEL: | E12 E31 E44 E52 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23424&r=dcm |
| By: | Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Bortoluzzo, Mauricio Mesquita |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the determinants of capital structure with a focus on both publicly-owned and privately-owned firms. We use annual financial statement data for over 1,000 publicly-owned and privately-owned Brazilian firms covering the 2012-2015 period. This enables us to use financial statements under the prevailing IFRS regime. The methodology takes into account the interdependency between debt and dividend policies, recognized in the literature on determinants of both capital structure and dividend policies. We also take into account that both debt and dividend policies can be used to mitigate agency problems, and that the presence of agency problems may in turn affect the choice of capital structure and dividend policy in a firm. As a proxy for the agency cost of equity, the firm’s inverted asset turnover ratio is used. Our empirical strategy treats debt and dividend policies and agency cost as dependent variables and leads to the use of a system of three equations, which are estimated with the generalized method of moments (GMM). In particular, we find that both payout and previous debt levels are positive and significant determinants of debt levels, but that there are differences in how important they are for privately-owned firms, on one hand, and publicly-owned firms, on the other. Also, some usual determinants of capital structure are significant for one group: for privately-owned firms (cash flow), for publicly-owned firms (intangibility), but not for the other, pointing out the importance of analyzing such firms separately. |
| Date: | 2017–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:451&r=dcm |
| By: | Agnieszka Hajduk (Gdynia Maritime University) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Sektor, w ktorym funkcjonuje podmiot gospodarczy, nalezy do istotnych czynnikow majacych wplyw na jego strukture kapitalu. Przedmiot dzialalnosci przedsiebiorstwa oddzialywuje nie tylko na proporcje kapitalow wlasnych i obcych w jego finansowaniu, ale wplywa rowniez znaczaco na strukture zobowiazan. Odmienny w poszczegolnych branzach udzial aktywow trwalych i obrotowych w majatku ogolem, a takze wewnetrzne zroznicowanie w poszczegolnych grupach majatkowych, powoduje, ze struktury kapitalowe tych przedsiebiorstw beda sie roznily. Czesto przedsiebiorcy opieraja decyzje na wyborach innych podmiotow ze swojego sektora, kierujac sie na przyklad srednim poziomem zadluzenia swojej branzy. Purpose of the article: Zasadniczym celem artykulu jest proba odpowiedzi na pytanie: Czy sektor, w ktorym funkcjonuje przedsiebiorstwo oddzialywuje na jego strukture kapitalu? Aby osiagnac postawiony cel, przeprowadzono analize struktury kapitalowej spolek warszawskiej gieldy oraz zastosowano testy statystyczne. Methodology/methods: Badania empiryczne przeprowadzono na grupie 385 spolek akcyjnych notowanych na Gieldzie Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A. Analizy dokonano na dwoch plaszczyznach: na poziomie makrosektorow gieldy (makrosektora Przemysl oraz makrosektora Handel i Uslugi) a takze na poziomie sektorow (Budownictwo, Handel Detaliczny, Informatyka). W badaniach wykorzystano metody analizy finansowej oraz metody analizy statystycznej: test U Manna-Whitneya oraz test H Kruskala-Wallisa. Analize przeprowadzono na poziomie zagregowanym, tj. dla usrednionych wartosci wskaznika struktury kapitalu badanych spolek w latach 2005-2010. Findings: Analiza jednowymiarowa struktury kapitalu w poszczegolnych latach okresu 2005-2010 wykazala, ze pomiedzy spolkami makrosektorow Przemysl oraz Handel i Uslugi istnieja roznice wartosci wskaznika struktury kapitalu. Podobne konstatacje odnotowano na poziomie sektorow. Testy statystyczne potwierdzily, ze przecietny poziom wskaznika struktury kapitalowej byl rozny dla spolek makrosektorow Przemysl, Handel i Uslugi oraz dla sektorow Informatyka i Budownictwo. |
| Keywords: | capital structure; activity sector; joint-stock companies |
| JEL: | G10 G32 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no34&r=dcm |
| By: | Fabio Clementi (University of Macerata); Francesco Schettino (University of Campania "L. Vanvitelli"); Enzo Valentini (University of Macerata) |
| Abstract: | Obiettivo principale di questo articolo è quello di fornire degli elementi che possano descrivere, in ambito italiano e su base regionale, l'evoluzione della relazione tra disuguaglianza e povertà da un lato e criminalità dall'altro. Facendo leva su una cospicua disponibilità di dati sul reddito delle famiglie italiane (fonte Banca d'Italia) e sui crimini commessi e denunciati (fonte ISTAT), i risultati individuati sono riassumibili nel fatto che tutte le variabili relative al crimine presentano, specialmente per le regioni del Sud e le isole maggiori, una correlazione positiva con gli squilibri distributivi del reddito (disuguaglianza e polarizzazione). In tali casi, l'incidenza dei reati relativi al patrimonio è maggiore al Nord, mentre i reati associativi hanno un livello di importanza superiore al Sud e nelle isole dove la presenza delle principali organizzazioni criminali calamita il fenomeno. La povertà , invece, risulta direttamente correlata ai reati associativi, a testimonianza del fatto che il preoccupante peggioramento dello status economico e sociale delle famiglie del Sud può determinare un pericoloso avvitamento con potenzialità di cristallizzazione nel medio-lungo periodo. Infine, i risultati documentano un significativo (e allarmante) rapporto tra il tasso di disoccupazione giovanile e la criminalità minorile. |
| Keywords: | Criminalità ,Polarizzazione,Disoccupazione giovanile,Povertà ,Disuguaglianza,Italia |
| JEL: | O1 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcr:wpaper:wpaper00048&r=dcm |
| By: | Alexander Grous |
| Abstract: | This paper presents research undertaken in Bizkaia in the Basque region that ‘peels the organisational layers’ to assess the management practices of 10 firms. These firms are drawn from the automotive, energy and aerospace clusters that have achieved international recognition, positioning Bizkaia as a prominent region for innovation and production. Firms were assessed using leading methodology developed by the LSE with McKinsey and Co that quantifies management practices and provides a comparison with comparable firms globally... |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:78695&r=dcm |
| By: | Benndorf, Volker; Moellers, Claudia; Normann, Hans-Theo |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether subjects with extensive laboratory experience and first-time participants, who voluntarily registered for the experiment, differ in their behavior. Subjects play four one-shot, two-player games: a trust game, a beauty contest, an ultimatum game, a travelers' dilemma and, in addition, we conduct a singleplayer lying task and elicit risk preferences. We find few significant differences. In the trust game, experienced subjects are less trustworthy and they also trust less. Furthermore, experienced subjects submit fewer non-monotonic strategies in the risk elicitation task. We find no differences whatsoever in the other decisions. Nevertheless, the minor differences observed between experienced and inexperienced subjects may be relevant because we document a potential recruitment bias: the share of inexperienced subjects may be lower in the early recruitment waves. |
| Keywords: | dilemma,experienced subjects,laboratory methods,trust game |
| JEL: | C90 C70 C72 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:251&r=dcm |
| By: | Artur Sajnog (University of Lodz, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: In the economic literature there are many arguments presented by critical supporters and opponents of measuring and reporting comprehensive income. There is a justified need to examine the relevance and usefulness of comprehensive income, especially the predictive power of comprehensive income for forecasting future earnings. It may be assumed that the comprehensive income has a better predictive power for future bank performance than net income, because this measure includes many elements, presented in the statement of changes in equity. Purpose of the article: The major subject in this paper is the evaluation of the usefulness of comprehensive income for predicting banks’ future earnings. Realization of the fundamental objective of this paper was centered around the main research hypothesis, stating that in economic practice of banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange it can be assumed that there is a positive predictive power of financial result in forecasting financial standing of these entities. Methodology/methods: The research comprised bank joint-stock companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (qualified on 15.09.2016). Empirical data for the study was obtained from the quarterly financial statements (the period from 2009 to 2015) from EMIS. The research method was the regression analysis conducted by means of Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and by two regression models in two versions. Findings & Value added: The research showed that the analyzed bank companies were characterized by a diversity usefulness of comprehensive income for predicting banks’ future earnings. Nevertheless, it must be stressed that the calculated Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients confirm in most instances a positive character of dependence between the comprehensive income and future return ratios. The results of the estimation of econometric models shows the positive association of comprehensive income with future profitability of banks. |
| Keywords: | comprehensive income; net income; financial reporting; predictive power; banks |
| JEL: | G21 M41 M48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no105&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz L. Nawrocki (Silesian University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Od czasu tzw. bañki internetowej, ktora miala miejsce na przelomie XX i XXI wieku, na globalnym rynku kapitalowym, w tym rowniez w Polsce, odnotowac mozna rosnace zainteresowanie spolkami stawiajacymi na innowacje i innowacyjnosc. Glownym motorem tego zainteresowania jest przekonanie, ze w dluzszym terminie innowacje oraz wydatki na badania i rozwoj przekladaja sie na wzrost przewagi konkurencyjnej, wynikow finansowych, a w dalszej kolejnosci takze wartosci rynkowej przedsiebiorstw. Podchodzac racjonalnie do kwestii inwestycyjnych nalezy jednakze zwrocic uwage na fakt, ze dzialalnosc innowacyjna ma rowniez druga, ciemniejsza, strone, ktora utozsamiana jest z daleko idaca niepewnoscia co do jej finalnych efektow i mozliwoscia poniesienia strat w wymiarze finansowym. Jednoczesnie, abstrahujac od powyzszych kwestii, nalezy zauwazyc, ze realizacja strategii inwestycji w akcje spolek innowacyjnych jest dosc klopotliwa z uwagi na brak jednolitej metodologii oceny innowacyjnosci podmiotow oraz duze zroznicowanie informacyjne w tym zakresie. Ocena efektywnosci inwestycyjnej notowanych na polskim rynku kapitalowym spolek postrzeganych jako innowacyjne z jednoczesnym zwroceniem uwagi na rozne przypadki rozwoju sytuacji w czasie w odniesieniu do rozpatrywanych podmiotow. Ocene efektywnosci inwestycyjnej przeprowadzono w ukladzie ryzyko-dochod z wykorzystaniem takich miar jak narastajaca skladana stopa zwrotu, srednia arytmetyczna stopa zwrotu, odchylenie i semiodchylenie standardowe oraz wspolczynnik zmiennosci i semizmiennosci stopy zwrotu. Otrzymane wyniki wskazuja, ze efektywnosc inwestycji w akcje spolek innowacyjnych czesto jest wyzsza w krotszym horyzoncie czasowym by wraz z jego wydluzaniem spadac w zwiazku z negatywna weryfikacja oczekiwañ inwestorow co do tempa rozwoju i wynikow finansowych spolek. |
| Keywords: | innowacyjnosc, przedsiebiorstwo innowacyjne, ryzyko innowacji, strategie inwestycyjne, analiza efektywnosci inwestycji |
| JEL: | G11 M13 O16 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no83&r=dcm |
| By: | Blazej Mazur (Cracow University of Economics, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Current approaches used in empirical macroeconomic analyses use the probabilistic setup and focus on evaluation of uncertainties and risks, also with respect to future business cycle fluctuations. Therefore, forecast-based business conditions indicators should be constructed using not just point forecasts, but rather density forecasts. The latter represent whole predictive distribution and provide relevant description of forecast uncertainty.We discuss a problem of model-based probabilistic inference on business cycle conditions in Poland. In particular we consider a model choice problem for density forecasts of Polish monthly industrial production index and its selected sub-indices. Based on the results we develop indicators of future economic conditions constructed using probabilistic information on future values of the index. In order to develop a relevant model class we make use of univariate Dynamic Conditional Score models with Bayesian inference methods. We assume that the conditional distribution is of the generalized t form in order to allow for heavy tails. Another group of models under consideration relies on the idea of business cycle modelling using the Flexible Fourier Form. We compare performance of alternative models based on ex-post evaluation of density forecasting accuracy using such criteria as Log-Predictive Score (LPS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). The assessment of density forecasting performance for Polish industrial production index turns out to be difficult since it depends on the choice of verification window. The pre-2013 data supports the deterministic cycle model whereas more recent observations can be explained by a very simple mean-reverting Gaussian AR(4) process. This provides an indirect evidence indicating the change of pattern of Polish business cycle fluctuations after 2013. A probabilistic indicator of business conditions is also sensitive to details of its construction. The results suggest application of forecast pooling strategies as a goal for further research. |
| Keywords: | density forecasts; Bayesian inference; business cycle; Dynamic Conditional Score models; Generalized t distribution. |
| JEL: | E37 C53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no75&r=dcm |
| By: | Faro, Clovis de |
| Abstract: | Já conhecido séculos antes (cf. Vieira Sobrinho (2012)) da publicação da celebrada obra de Richard Price (1771), o sistema de amortização de dívidas por meio de prestações constantes, tem sido, universalmente, o mais popular. Sendo denominado, aqui no Brasil, de Tabela Price (TP), ou método francês, foi o inicialmente consagrado quando da instituição do Sistema Financeiro da Habitação (SFH), para fins de financiamentos habitacionais, em 1964. Ano este em que foi simultaneamente estabelecido o conceito de correção monetária. Todavia, no âmbito de nosso judiciário, visto ser fundamentado no que se denomina de regime de juros compostos, a Tabela Price tem sido objeto de frequentes questionamentos (cf. de Faro e Guerra (2009) e Nogueira (2013)). Com tais tipos de demandas dizendo respeito ao que, como em Houaiss (2001), é definido como anatocismo; ou seja, juros devidos a juros. Doutrinariamente, como recentemente sugerido por Puccini (2104), a questão poderia ser resolvida mediante a especificação de como deveriam ser interpretadas as parcelas de amortização (restituição do principal emprestado) e de juros que são contidas em cada prestação. Entretanto, conceitualmente, como observado em de Faro (2014b), há que haver conformidade com o que se denomina de princípio de consistência financeira. Isto é, a repartição entre amortização e juros não pode ser arbitrária. Anteriormente antecipada na dissertação de mestrado de Sandrini (2007), uma criativa solução radical para a controvérsia seria a de fracionar o contrato de financiamento em tantos subcontratos quando fosse o número de prestações. Com tal proposição, contemplando não somente a Tabela Price, mas também outros sistemas de amortização, alicerçando-se unicamente em singelas ilustrações numéricas. Mais recentemente, De-Losso, Giovannetti e Rangel (2013), dirigindo a atenção ao caso específico da Tabela Price, apresentaram uma análise mais abrangente, de cunho analítico, com fulcro no que denominaram de Sistema de Múltiplos Contratos (SMC). Ainda mais, como uma significativa contribuição original, evidenciaram que, no caso de financiadores que sejam pessoas jurídicas, o sistema de múltiplos contratos pode ensejar substanciais reduções nas taxas de juros hoje praticadas. Pois que propiciaria significativos ganhos fiscais. No presente artigo, iremos especializar a análise para o caso do chamado Sistema de Amortizações Constantes (SAC), que foi introduzido no SFH em 1971. Sistema este que, correntemente, compete com a Tabela Price para fins de contratos de financiamentos habitacionais. Fundamentando-se em uma abordagem de caráter analítico, será evidenciado que a adoção da sistemática de múltiplos contratos, também poderá ter como uma desejável consequência a redução das elevadas taxas de juros que costumam ser observadas em financiamentos habitacionais. Posto que também acarretariam ganhos fiscais. Subsidiariamente, dado que, mormente no SFH, existe a possibilidade de que financiamentos sejam contratados tanto de acordo com a TP como segundo o SAC, iremos também cotejar os respectivos ganhos fiscais advindos da implementação do SMC. |
| Date: | 2017–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:783&r=dcm |
| By: | Kiesel, F.; Kolaric, S. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the importance of distinguishing between watch-preceded and direct rating changes for the credit default swap (CDS) market by examining a total of 2991 rating change announcements, 1526 watchlist placement announcements, and 430 rating affirmations following watchlist placements. The results show that watch-preceded downgrades do not lead to significant CDS market reactions, while direct downgrades are associated with a significant increase in CDS spread levels. Likewise, we document that watchlist placements for downgrade lead to increases in firms’ CDS spreads. CDS markets do not react to rating upgrades but watchlist placements for upgrade result in an immediate decrease in CDS spreads. Rating affirmations following watchlist placements for downgrade lead to slight reductions in CDS spreads, while affirmations following watchlist placements for upgrade have no effect on CDS spreads. These findings demonstrate the importance for empirical research on the interaction between credit markets and rating announcements to differentiate between watch-preceded and direct rating changes, particularly for rating downgrades. |
| Date: | 2017–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:87386&r=dcm |
| By: | Juan Carlos Cuestas; Merike Kukk |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the mutual dependence between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia, a country which experienced rapid debt accumulation during the 2000s and big swings in house prices during that period. We use Bayesian econometric methods on data spanning 2000–2015. The estimations show the interdependence between house prices and housing credit. More importantly, housing credit shocks had a stronger effect on house prices in the period of declining credit turnover. The asymmetry in the linkage between housing credit and house prices highlights important policy implications, in that if central banks increase capital buffers during good times, they can release credit conditions during hard times to alleviate the negative spillover into house prices and the real economy |
| Keywords: | house prices, housing credit, credit cycle, asymmetries, Bayesian |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E51 G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2017-2&r=dcm |
| By: | Ewa Rollnik-Sadowska (Bialystok University of Technology, Wiejska 45 A, 15-351 Bialystok Poland,); Edyta Dabrowska (Marshal's Office of Podlasie province, Poleska 89, 15-874 Bialystok, Poland); Britta Luedeke (Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Regionaldirektion Berlin-Brandenburg, Friedrichstr. 34, 10969 Berlin, Germany); Doris Wiethoelter (IAB Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In the era of demographic changes and need for rationalization of public expenditure, the European Union social policy promotes the activation approach. In addition, there can be noticed a growing importance of increasing the efficiency of public policies. The authors are presenting the main theoretical assumptions concerning efficiency as well as classification of methods for measuring of efficiency of labour market policies. Moreover, the EU countries are classified in clusters according to their level of expenditure on different categories of LMP. The paper is based on critical analysis of literature as well as analysis of secondary research findings. The cross-country labour market situation in the EU is based on the analysis of the Eurostat data by the k-means method. There is a need to work out a complex evaluation of labour market policies in the EU to provide comparative analysis of the EU countries (or groups of countries). It would allow determining the level of development of the country in terms of the efficiency of labour market policies.The EU countries with the best labour market situation represent diverse levels of LMP expenditure. |
| Keywords: | labour market policy, efficiency, LMP expenditure, clusters of the European Un-ion countries |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J11 J24 J88 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no101&r=dcm |
| By: | Cantillo, Miguel |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper analyzes and measures the value that American private banks added as directors of non financial companies. Using data between 1874 and 1913, and an event study from 1906, I find that bank directors added about 20% of a firm's market capitalization. Collusive practices encouraged by private banks accounted for 65% of this value, and were the equivalent of creating a three player market among railroads. About 35% of the value added by banks came from better governance. I argue that although policymakers were partly right in sidelining private banks as activist investors, this helped entrench managers. |
| Keywords: | Antitrust; Collusion; Corporate Governance; Financial History |
| JEL: | G21 G24 G34 K21 L41 N21 |
| Date: | 2016–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79354&r=dcm |
| By: | Citak, Yusuf Ensar; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to investigate the Granger-causal relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and inflation rates using Turkey as a case study. Revealing this relationship will give us a roadmap to cure fragile Turkish economy. Standard time-series approaches are used to investigate this relation. Our empirical findings tend to indicate that there is a long run relationship between these variables and that the CPI appears to be the variable leading exchange rate and oil prices. The results are plausible and have strong policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price, Exchange Rate, CPI, PPI, Turkey, cointegration, exogeneity, endogeneity |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79453&r=dcm |
| By: | Margaret Leighton (University of St Andrews); Jamin Speer (University of Memphis) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the definition and measurement of college major specificity and estimates its labor market return over a worker’s life cycle. After reviewing the variety of measures which have been used to measure specialization, we propose a new approach: a Theil measure based on the transferability of skills across occupations. We calculate and compare representative measures using data from the American Community Survey, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the Baccalaureate and Beyond. We then use these measures to estimate the return to specialized higher education. Our consistent finding is that the most "general" majors are the ones that pay off the most over time. While there is an initial earnings premium to majors with a tight connection to the labor market and to those classified as "vocational", this fades by age 30. Meanwhile, majors that teach versatile, transferable skills earn the most at every age. Employment returns are largely consistent with these earnings estimates. While vocational majors display a persistent employment premium over the life cycle, most other measures suggest that graduates from general majors work more hours, are more likely to be employed, and are more likely to be employed full time. Overall, major specificity explains 22% of the variation across majors in earnings and 28% of the variation in work hours. |
| Keywords: | human capital; general education; vocational education; higher education; specificity; specific human capital |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J31 I23 |
| Date: | 2017–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:wpecon:1709&r=dcm |
| By: | Bastourre, Diego; Zeolla, Nicolás |
| Abstract: | Desde la década de los noventa se ha evidenciado una veloz transformación en las finanzas internacionales que ha llevado a la globalización financiera a niveles sin precedentes. América Latina y el Caribe no han escapado a esta tendencia general. Estos procesos, lejos de generar los beneficios predichos por la teoría, derivaron de manera temprana en crisis de deuda, cambiarias y financieras. Luego de la crisis económica internacional de 2008/2009, tanto las prácticas hacia la liberalización de la cuenta capital como la teoría convencional sobre el tema tendieron a ser revisados. Impulsado por la experiencia de los países en desarrollo, surgió una revalorización de las medidas de administración de los flujos de capital, en la que nuestra región participó activamente. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, más allá de algunas rerregulaciones, el grado de administración de la cuenta de capital y financiera en América Latina y el Caribe se encuentra por debajo de las otras economías emergentes comparables. En este contexto, el presente estudio tiene varios objetivos. El primero es revisitar el estado de la literatura reciente sobre la integración financiera y la efectividad de la regulación de los flujos de capital. El segundo es presentar una serie de hechos estilizados sobre la regulación de los flujos de capital en América Latina y el Caribe en los últimos veinte años y ponerlos en el contexto de las tendencias globales hacia la mayor financiarización. El tercero, comprender cuáles fueron las motivaciones detrás de los cambios recientes en la regulación. |
| Keywords: | CAPITAL, POLITICA MONETARIA, MOVIMIENTOS DE CAPITAL, REGULACION ECONOMICA, CAPITAL, MONETARY POLICY, CAPITAL MOVEMENTS, ECONOMIC REGULATION |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col030:41410&r=dcm |
| By: | Marc Baudry; Clément Bonnet |
| Abstract: | Renewable energy technologies are called to play a crucial role in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since most of these technologies did not yet reach grid parity, public policies can rely on two types of approach to stimulate innovation: supply-push and demand-pull. The latter aims at creating demand for new technologies and at stimulating their diffusion. Nevertheless, due to the complex self-sustained dynamics of diffusion and to spillovers between the countries it is hard to determine whether newly installed capacities are imputable to national support policies and/or to policies implemented by neighbor countries. The paper addresses this problem. A micro-founded model of technology diffusion is developed and calibrated. It captures the influence of demand-pull policies on wind power installed capacities for six European countries over the last decade. A counter-factual analysis is carried out to assess the impact of demand-pull policies on wind power development by taking into account the interplay between national policies via spillovers. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, Technology diffusion, Demand pull instruments |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1705&r=dcm |
| By: | François Cohen; Antoine Dechezlepretre |
| Abstract: | In this paper the authors examine the heterogeneous impact of temperature shocks on mortality across income groups in Mexico using individual death records (1998–2010) and Census data. Random variation in temperatures is responsible for the death of around 45,000 people every year in Mexico, representing 8 per cent of deaths in the country. However, 88 per cent of weather-related deaths are induced by mildly cold days (of 10–20°C), while extremely hot days (over 32°C) kill a comparatively low number of people (less than 400 annually). Moreover, mildly cold temperatures only kill in the bottom half of the income distribution. The authors show that the Seguro Popular, a universal healthcare policy progressively rolled out during the sample period, reduced cold-related mortality among the poor by about 30 per cent. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp268&r=dcm |
| By: | Dobrolyubova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Klochkova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Samotsvetova, Alexandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The development of the personnel potential of the federal state civil service plays a key role in improving the quality of public administration. The material presents an analysis of the trends in the staffing of federal executive bodies and the payment of civil servants. The results of the analysis allow to estimate the influence of optimizing the number of the state civil service on the staffing of the implementation of state programs |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031705&r=dcm |
| By: | Jonas Wood; Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Karel Neels; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | It is expected that by the end of the 21 st century the vast majority of the human population will live in densely populated environments that are frequently characterized by low fertility. Belgium constitutes one of the few recently emerged cases, where a densely populated and highly developed country not only escapes from low fertility, but also exhibits positive associations between education and childbearing. It has been argued, that these patterns might be related to Belgium’s extensive policies supporting the reconciliation of family and career goals, and that especially highly educated people are benefiting from these policies. We look into these hypotheses by studying a unique micro-dataset covering all Belgian residents between 2002 and 2005. The main focus is on the relevance of between-municipality variation in economic conditions and social services for understanding variation in second birth risks by educational attainment. Our results suggest that the second birth risks of highly educated women are by far most sensitive to variation in local conditions. Controlling for ethnic composition effects and internal migration, we reveal that a considerable part of the local variation in the educational gradient in second births can be related to a positive link between fertility and economic conditions as well as social services for the highly educated. Low educated mothers, on the other hand, are found to be less likely to progress to a second child in more prosperous municipalities. This provides support for the view that institutional support for families might indeed be very relevant, and this particularly for the highly educated. |
| Keywords: | Belgium, child care, economic and social development, family policies, fertility determinants |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-014&r=dcm |
| By: | Ivankina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to the study of the problems of preservation, maintenance and development of the cultural heritage of the Russian Federation on the example of particularly valuable national objects and complexes, which are in fact national brands - the visiting card of Russia. Preservation of cultural heritage is one of the Necessary conditions for sustainable development of the Russian state, ensuring its integrity, diversity of socio-cultural space and national Security. |
| Keywords: | Preservation and protection of cultural heritage, a monument, Cultural landscape, places of interest, objects of outstanding universal value, legislative and regulatory framework, town-planning factor, alternative types of management of obects of cultural heritage |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041727&r=dcm |
| By: | Dmitrii Dubrov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This research examines the role of family social capital (FSC) in parental and adolescent subjective well-being. As the construct FSC is relatively new, the article presents data of validated methods for measuring it. 397 Russians were interviewed to identify whether FSC is a significant predictor of subjective well-being. The results indicate that it is a predictor of adolescent subjective well-being. For parents, this construct can be a predictor of their subjective well-being depending on their level of income |
| Keywords: | family social capital, subjective well-being, interpersonal relations, parents, adolescents |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:75psy2017&r=dcm |
| By: | David Arnold; Will Dobbie; Crystal S. Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new test for identifying racial bias in the context of bail decisions – a high-stakes setting with large disparities between white and black defendants. We motivate our analysis using Becker's (1957) model of racial bias, which predicts that rates of pre-trial misconduct will be identical for marginal white and marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially unbiased. In contrast, marginal white defendants will have a higher probability of misconduct than marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially biased against blacks. To test the model, we develop a new estimator that uses the release tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to identify the relevant race-specific misconduct rates. Estimates from Miami and Philadelphia show that bail judges are racially biased against black defendants, with substantially more racial bias among both inexperienced and part-time judges. We also find that both black and white judges are biased against black defendants. We argue that these results are consistent with bail judges making racially biased prediction errors, rather than being racially prejudiced per se. |
| JEL: | J15 J71 K14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23421&r=dcm |
| By: | Julio López Laborda; Carmen Marín; Jorge Onrubia |
| Abstract: | En el trabajo se estiman las consecuencias recaudatorias y distributivas de la supresión de los beneficios fiscales del IRPF vigentes en el período impositivo 2013. Se concluye que la supresión del conjunto de beneficios fiscales analizados supondría un incremento de recaudación de 24.457 millones de euros, y que el efecto redistributivo del IRPF, medido por el índice de Reynolds-Smolensky, se reduciría en un 1,1%. El trabajo también analiza diversos escenarios hipotéticos de devolución a los individuos del incremento de recaudación conseguido con la eliminación de los beneficios fiscales, y se cuantifica su impacto sobre la distribución de la renta. Las dos políticas de gasto simuladas –el reparto igual per cápita o en función de la edad de los descendientes en cada hogar fiscal- mejoran el efecto redistributivo del IRPF. En cuanto a la política de ingresos estudiada –la reducción de los tipos marginales del IRPF-, mantiene el efecto redistributivo del impuesto y reduce sus costes de eficiencia. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2017-13&r=dcm |
| By: | Voloshinskaya, Anna A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Komarov, Vladimir M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kotsyubinskiy, Vladimir A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | It is shown that the ideology and strategy of socio-economic development can be based on the paradigm of sustainable development. This implies an increase of the national wealth as stocks of capital (human, natural, physical, social, cultural and structural) in time. The paper proposes measures for Russia's transition to the paradigm of sustainable development. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021702&r=dcm |
| By: | Chokaev, Bekhan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The article discusses the prospects for the development of the financial system and the economy, associated with the emergence of Islamic finance industry in the country. The author briefly describes the distinguished features of Islamic finance, examines the main obstacles for functioning of Islamic financial institutions in the Russian legislation. Furthermore, there is an analysis of the economic benefits from the creation of economic infrastructure, which enables Islamic financial companies to operate in equal conditions with other subjects of the financial system in terms of financial, tax and administrative aspects. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031719&r=dcm |
| By: | Michela Altieri; Giovanna Nicodano |
| Abstract: | Our model highlights the impact of bankruptcy on (true and apparent) firm value. We show that the pricing of diversified firms suffers from a survivorship bias, due to their lower mortality relative to focused ones. This difference in mortality is able to turn a true diversification premium, deriving from saved bankruptcy costs, into an apparent diversification discount. Such apparent discount is larger the larger is the true premium due to coinsurance across diversified units. We show how this insight contributes to explain value paradoxes in diversified companies such as multi-unit groups, multi-segment conglomerates, and parent companies. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy costs, coinsurance, contagion, limited liability, diversification discount, survivorship bias, parent company discount, cost of debt |
| JEL: | G32 D23 K19 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:465&r=dcm |
| By: | Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Morgunov, Vyacheslav (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Trunin, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Study of features and specifics of formation of exchange rates in the developing countries within the floating regimes allow us to determine the objective backgrounds of monetary authorities' failure to support fixed exchange rate and the conditions requiring not only to manage the demand/supply on the internal currency market but to conduct foreign interventions too. As results of investigation show, de-facto the most of inflation targeting central banks of developing countries conduct operations of currency refinancing and realize operations on foreign currency market. The results indicate that the distinctive feature of exchange rate policy implemented by them is the absence of any objective in the level or change the trajectory of the exchange rate. Essential for understanding the permissible degree of participation of the monetary authorities, are targeted inflation rate formation in the process have the methodological aspects of the classification of de facto implemented exchange rate policy, which have been modified only in 2009. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031722&r=dcm |
| By: | Danzer, Natalia; Halla, Martin; Schneeweis, Nicole; Zweimüller, Martina |
| Abstract: | We provide a novel interpretation of the estimated treatment effects from evaluations of parental leave reforms. Accounting for the counterfactual mode of care is crucial in the analysis of child outcomes and potential mediators. We evaluate a large and generous parental leave extension in Austria exploiting a sharp birthday cutoff-based discontinuity in the eligibility for extended parental leave and geographical variation in formal childcare. We find that estimated treatment effects on long-term child outcomes differ substantially according to the availability of formal childcare and the mother's counterfactual work behavior. We show that extending parental leave has significant positive effects on children's health and human capital outcomes only if the reform induces a replacement of informal childcare with maternal care. We conclude that care provided by mothers (or formal institutions) is superior to informal care-arrangements. |
| Keywords: | child development; fertility.; formal childcare; informal childcare; maternal labor supply; parental leave |
| JEL: | H52 I38 J12 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12064&r=dcm |
| By: | Fu, Shihe; Guo, Mengmeng |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of over 0.3 million marathon runners in 37 cities and 55 races in China in 2014 and 2015, we estimate the air pollution elasticity of finish time to be 0.041. Our causal identification comes from the exogeneity of air pollution on the race day because runners are required to register a race a few months in advance and we control for city fixed effects, seasonal effects, and weather condition on the race day. Including individual fixed effects also provides consistent evidence. Our study contributes to the emerging literature on the effect of air pollution on short-run productivity, particularly on the performance of athletes engaging outdoor sports and other workers whose jobs require intensive physical activities. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution; marathon; outdoor behavior; mega events; short-run productivity |
| JEL: | I18 Q53 R11 Z10 |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79473&r=dcm |
| By: | Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Efremov, Alexey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In the present work, the practice of participation of Russian courts in identifying, recognizing and eliminating corruption-related factors in Russian regulatory legal acts, including their anti-corruption expertise, is analyzed. The possibilities of activating the participation of courts in reducing the corruption character of Russian legislation are considered. The proposals on legal and methodological support of the active participation of Russian courts in reducing the corruption character of Russian legislation have been developed. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041729&r=dcm |
| By: | Musegaas, Marieke (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | This thesis covers various research topics involving cooperative game theory, a mathematical tool to analyze the cooperative behavior within a group of players. The focus is mainly on interrelations between operations research and cooperative game theory by analyzing specific types of cooperative joint optimization problems induced by network structures. In particular, this thesis considers minimum coloring problems and one-machine sequencing situations together with its related games. Further, it studies the problem of computing the influence of a neuronal structure in a brain network. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:2506a423-e66e-4c61-9972-e873abfada30&r=dcm |
| By: | Oliver de Groot (University of St Andrews); Alexander W. Richter (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Nathaniel A. Throckmorton (College of William & Mary) |
| Abstract: | Basu and Bundick (2017) show a second moment intertemporal preference shock creates meaningful declines in output in a sticky price model with Epstein and Zin (1991) preferences. The result, however, rests on the way they model the shock. If a preference shock is included in Epstein-Zin preferences, the distributional weights on current and future utility must sum to 1, otherwise it creates an asymptote in the response to the shock with unit intertemporal elasticity of substitution. When we change the preferences so the weights sum to 1, the asymptote disappears as well as their main results—uncertainty shocks generate small increases in output and comovement with consumption and investment that is at odds with the data. We examine three changes to the model—recalibration, a risk-premium shock, and a disaster risk-type shock—to try and restore their results, but in all three cases the model is unable to match VAR evidence. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic Volatility, Epstein-Zin Preferences, Uncertainty, Economic Activity |
| JEL: | D81 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:cdmawp:1703&r=dcm |
| By: | Oliver de Groot (University of St Andrews); Alexander W. Richter (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Nathaniel A. Throckmorton (College of William & Mary) |
| Abstract: | Basu and Bundick (2017) show a second moment intertemporal preference shock creates meaningful declines in output in a sticky price model with Epstein and Zin (1991) preferences. The result, however, rests on the way they model the shock. If a preference shock is included in Epstein-Zin preferences, the distributional weights on current and future utility must sum to 1, otherwise it creates an asymptote in the response to the shock with unit intertemporal elasticity of substitution. When we change the preferences so the weights sum to 1, the asymptote disappears as well as their main results—uncertainty shocks generate small increases in output and comovement with consumption and investment that is at odds with the data. We examine three changes to the model—recalibration, a risk-premium shock, and a disaster risk-type shock—to try and restore their results, but in all three cases the model is unable to match VAR evidence. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic Volatility, Epstein-Zin Preferences, Uncertainty, Economic Activity |
| JEL: | D81 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:wpecon:1710&r=dcm |
| By: | Kiygi Calli, M.; Weverbergh, M.; Franses, Ph.H.B.F. |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the manpower planning and the performance of a national call center dealing with car repairs and on the road interventions. We model the impact of advertising on the capacity required. The starting point is a forecasting model for the incoming calls, where we take into account the impact of radio and TV commercials. An autoregressive-distributed lag model is used, which accounts for time-varying autoregressive effects. With our estimation results, we construct a forecasting tool based on a weekly media plan, and compare its forecasts with forecasts under baseline conditions without advertising. Next, the forecasts are fed into to the capacity planning simulation module. We simulate the process directly at the level of seconds. This simulation mimics the service level requirements and queue behavior (waiting times, abandoned calls and idle time). The simulations show that the call center is operating at a high level of efficiency and performance. At the same time, we show that advertising may lead to a temporary overload of the system, and this increases the amount of abandoned calls, which is suboptimal. |
| Keywords: | Call Center, Service Operations, Capacity Management, Discrete Event Simulation |
| Date: | 2017–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:99789&r=dcm |
| By: | Hunold, Matthias |
| Abstract: | Entry deterrence can occur when downstream incumbents hold non-controlling ownership shares of a supplier which is commited to charge uniform prices to all downstream firms. The ownership shares imply a rebate on the input price for the incumbents through the profit participation. Such backward ownership induces the supplier to accommodate entry by charging a low uniform price to all downstream firms in case of entry. However, just the entry-accommodating behavior reduces entry profits and thereby can lead to market foreclosure. Based on this theory, the article reviews a merger case in the financial services industry and draws conclusions for regulation and competition policy. |
| Keywords: | entry deterrence,foreclosure,minority shareholdings,non-controlling partial ownership,uniform pricing,vertical integration |
| JEL: | G34 L22 L40 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:250&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz Ingram (The University of Economics in Katowice, Poland); Grzegorz Glod (The University of Economics in Katowice, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Organizational resilience, understood as an ability to survive in harsh market conditions, captures increased research consideration in recent years. The same applies to family businesses that attracted significant attention lately. Although the interest in the topic grows, there are still remaining questions to be answered. In the paper we focus on identifying factors affecting organizational abilities to adapt to dynamic, hostile and complex environment especially when disruptive events occur in the environment. Literature studies in the topic allowed development of research proposition - organizational resilience should help to survive negative occurrences in the environment and family business should focus their attention on building resilience capacity while it may allow and facilitate longevity and well-being of an organization. We illustrate this proposition with the use of two family company cases from the Silesian Voivodeship. The first is a case of a large production company that existed between 2010 and 2013, and after receiving increased growth in 2005-2012 period it went bankrupt in 2014 after two large contracts. The second is a case of a developer company from the same region that started its operation in the same period and managed to develop both its market and products in years. We compare the data flowing from interviews with the owners (that are also managers of these companies) using Eisenhardt (1989) methodology and that leads to creation of propositions for future research. Research results indicate there are several factors influencing ability to cope with critical situations. Firstly, we identified that professionalization of management of family business leads to better chances to survive in the environment. Secondly, we conclude that awareness to weak signals diminishes the probability of risky behaviors and helps to survive in dynamic, hostile environment. |
| Keywords: | organizational resilience, family business, case study |
| JEL: | M20 H12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no39&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Kulyk (University of Zielona GoraFaculty of Economics and Management); Lukasz Augustowski (University of Zielona Gora); Anna Mroz (University of Zielona Gora) |
| Abstract: | This article presents issues of rational management of energy throughout the Lubuskie province. The starting point was the idea of permanently sustainable development. The authors focused on the problem of reducing emission of polluting gases in the context of sustainable development. The results obtained were collated with other provinces and a comparative analysis was made. The aim of the article is to evaluate the changes of emission of pollutants as well as the factor affecting emission and also to indicate the directions of its reduction. Such an approach is connected with both a long and short-term horizon, which follows from the necessity of securing clean air and “healthy atmosphere” at present as well as for future generations, taking into consideration , however , the economical, social and environmental context. In that sense, we are looking for an alternative which would secure permanent sustainability of development throughout the province. The paper analyzes different solutions to decrease the use of coal to achieve the aims of CO2 emission reduction throughout the Lubuskie province by means of an econometric model. The authors used a fixed effects model and selected statistical tests serving to evaluate and chose the right model. For evaluating the levels of penetration of different technologies considering their economical, technical and environmental characteristics, a probabilistic approach and historical data were used. Even though air pollution with gases has been dropping in the Lubuskie province since 2011, still the actions taken at the regional level are of great significance. The policy pursued by the region should include promotion of renewable sources of energy, spatial planning, or changes in the lifestyle. In the context of sustainable development, variables such as forestation, wages, number of plants, poverty threshold and population density have proven to be important. |
| Keywords: | spat Lubuskie province; CO2 reduction; sustainable development |
| JEL: | Q01 Q54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no5&r=dcm |
| By: | KASMAOUI, Kamal; BOURHABA, Othmane |
| Abstract: | The present study examines empirically the relationship between Happiness and public spending. We use a panel data from 2006 to 2015 for about 132 countries. We first estimated a Pooled, fixed effect and finally a GMM model to deal with the endogeneity problem. Our main findings suggest, first, that high levels of public expenditure are associated with greater Happiness around the world. Second, as expected, social support, Healthy life expectancy, Freedom to make life choices and confidence in national government contribute significantly to Happiness. |
| Keywords: | Happiness, Public choice, Government spending, GMM |
| JEL: | H11 H40 H50 I31 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79339&r=dcm |
| By: | Paulina Nowak (Politechnika Œwietokrzyska, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Jakosc zycia postrzegana jest jako stopieñ zaspokojenia przez ludzi potrzeb o roznorodnym charakterze, w tym szczegolnie materialnych, duchowych, bezpieczeñstwa i aspiracji zyciowych. Brane sa pod uwage aspekty ekonomiczne, przestrzenne, srodowiskowe, kulturowe. Jakosc zycia determinowana jest zatem rozmaitymi uwarunkowaniami, w ktorych zyje czlowiek, i ktorych zrodlem jest piramida potrzeb oraz system wartosci. Jednoczesnie jakosc zycia mozna ujmowac z punktu widzenia zbiorowosci (aspekt obiektywny) i ze wzgledu na indywidualna ocene jednostki (aspekt subiektywny). Celem artykulu jest diagnoza i ocena zroznicowañ poziomu jakosci zycia w polskich wojewodztwach w ujeciu obiektywnym poprzez konstrukcje syntetycznego miernika pozwalajacego oszacowac nierownosci w jakosci zycia spolecznosci regionalnych. Przyjeto, ze jakosc zycia charakteryzowac beda wskazniki pogrupowane w nastepujace obszary: materialne warunki zycia, aktywnosc ekonomiczna, zdrowie, edukacja i jakosc srodowiska zamieszkania. Do pomiaru jakosci zycia, jako glowna, zastosowano metode porzadkowania liniowego w oparciu o taksonomiczna miare Z. Hellwiga, ktora pozwala uporzadkowac wojewodztwa ze wzgledu na poziom jakosci zycia spolecznosci. Jako dodatkowa, wykorzystano analize skupieñ (aglomeracyjna metode grupowania Warda).Realizujac cel badawczy zwrocono szczegolna uwage na zlozonosc problematyki jakosci zycia i jej pomiaru na gruncie ekonomii oraz podkreslono dosc znaczace zroznicowania w wojewodztwach. Przeprowadzona analiza wskazala grupy regionow o najwyzszym, wysokim, niskim i najnizszym poziomie jakosci zycia. |
| Keywords: | jakosc zycia; miara dobrobytu; zroznicowania regionalne |
| JEL: | I31 R13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no85&r=dcm |
| By: | Ning Mao (Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok, Thailand); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; University of Sydney Business School, Australia; Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands; Complutense University of Madrid, Spain and Yokohama National Univ) |
| Abstract: | Under anti-globalization and isolationism, China is seeking to portray itself as a new leader for globalization under the banner of the Silk Road initiative. Meanwhile, China’s traditional and comparatively advantaged industry, silk, has faced dire predicaments and challenges for long time, and needs a transformation in terms of initiatives. Throughout history, the prosperity arising from silk was supposed to represent a microcosm of Chinese society. This paper searches the breakthrough point to improve the current dilemma of Chinese silk enterprises; uses a Case Study for inductive reasoning that is feasible for marketing strategies; and provides a strategy to help Chinese silk enterprises to transform their market positioning and operating modes to obtain better development opportunities. The paper also analyzes the new external environment based on the “One Belt, One Road” principle, which is of crucial importance for the implementation of new marketing strategies. |
| Keywords: | China; Silk; Company Strategy; National Strategy; Transformation; Chinese Trade |
| JEL: | O24 P33 Q27 |
| Date: | 2017–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170047&r=dcm |
| By: | Williams, John C. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | Presentation to the Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance, Singapore, Singapore , by John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May 29, 2017. |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfsp:177&r=dcm |
| By: | Nerina Vecchio; Nicholas Rohde |
| Keywords: | Emergency room visits, Healthcare access shortfalls, Propensity score matching |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gri:epaper:economics:201708&r=dcm |
| By: | Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Startsev, Yaroslav (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The study is devoted to situations of development of social phenomena, as potential objects of public administration. A diagnostic model and algorithm for diagnosing development situations has been created in the work, which makes it possible to identify the development potential, substantiate or disprove, and assess the possibility of state development management in this situation. The use of the methodology can be recommended for the development of strategic planning documents by state authorities and local self-government. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031724&r=dcm |
| By: | José A. Álvarez-Jareño (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Elena Badal-Valero (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain); José Manuel Pavía (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Benford’s Law is a well-known system use in accountancy for the analysis and detection of anomalies relating to money laundering and fraud. On that basis, and using real data from transactions undertaken by more than 600 companies from a particular sector, behavioral patterns can be analyzed using the latest machine learning procedures. The dataset is clearly unbalanced, for this reason we will apply cost matrix and SMOTE to different detecting patters methodologies: logistic regression, decision trees, neural networks and random forests. The objective of the cost matrix and SMOTE is to improve the forecasting capabilities of the models to easily identify those companies committing some kind of fraud. The results obtained show that the SMOTE algorithm gets better true positive results, outperforming the cost matrix implementation. However, the general accuracy of the model is very similar, so the amount of a false positive result will increase with SMOTE methodology. The aim is to detect the largest number of fraudulent companies, reducing, as far as possible, the number of false positives on companies operating correctly. The results obtained are quite revealing: Random forest gets better results with SMOTE transformation. It obtains 96.15% of true negative results and 94,98% of true positive results. Without any doubt, the listing ability of this methodology is very high. This study has been developed from the investigation of a real Spanish money laundering case in which this expert team have been collaborating. This study is the first step to use machine learning to detect financial crime in Spanish judicial process cases. |
| Keywords: | Benford’s Law, unbalance dataset, random forest, fraud, anti-money laundering. |
| JEL: | C14 C44 C53 M42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2017/07&r=dcm |
| By: | Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de; Gala, Paulo |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the Dutch disease can be more formally characterised as low economic complexity using ECI-type indicators; there is a solid and robust inverse relationship between exports concentrating on natural resources and economic complexity as measured by complexity indicators for a database of 122 countries from 1963 to 2013. In a large majority of cases, oil answers for shares in excess of 50% of exports. In addition to empirical panel analysis, we address case studies concerned with Indonesia and Nigeria and introduce a brief review of the theoretical literature on the topic. Indonesia is considered in the literature as a good example in avoiding the negative effects of the Dutch disease, whereas Nigeria is taken as a bad example in terms of institutions and policies adopted during the seventies and eighties. The empirical results show that complexity analysis and Big Data may offer significant contributions to the still-current debate surrounding the Dutch disease. |
| Date: | 2017–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:448&r=dcm |
| By: | Monika Banaszewska (Poznan University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Local public investments satisfy basic local communities’ needs and are crucial from the perspective of regional convergence. Against this background, investments by Polish local government pose as an interesting research subject. It is because, due to its size and dynamics, local public investments exert a considerably significant influence on the Polish economy. Self-government entities with primary responsibility for conducting local public investments in Poland are municipalities. The paper aims to identify fiscal, demographic and infrastructural determinants of municipal investment spending in Poland. I use panel data for 2412 Polish municipalities over the period 2007–2014. For institutional reasons, the sample excludes cities with county rights. The baseline specification employs two-way fixed-effects (FE) estimation that controls both for municipality and year fixed effects. To test for robustness, the sample is restricted to municipalities with up to 20,000; 10,000 and 5,000 inhabitants. For each considered sample there are four regression specifications implemented. Investment spending increases both in own revenues and grants. On the contrary, I document the negative impact of indebtedness level and the coverage of water supply and sewage systems. The coefficients on population size and the share of old inhabitants cease to be negative and statistically significant for municipalities with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. The results indicate that, apart from fiscal capacity, the investment policies of Polish municipalities are affected by economies of scale, local communities’ preferences and infrastructural endowment. The study also shows that incurring debt should be of particular concern for supervisory and control bodies. |
| Keywords: | investment activity; municipal government; fiscal federalism |
| JEL: | D78 H72 R53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no8&r=dcm |
| By: | Michael F. Lovenheim; Patrick Walsh |
| Abstract: | We examine whether changes in the local school choice environment affect the amount of information parents collect about local school quality, using data on over 100 million searches from greatschools.org. We link monthly data on search frequency in local “Search Units” to information on changes in open enrollment policies, tuition vouchers, charitable scholarship tax credits, tuition tax credits, local choice opportunities driven by No Child Left Behind sanctions and charter school penetration. Our results indicate that expansions in school choice rules and opportunities in a given area have large, positive effects on the frequency of searches done for schools in that area. These estimates suggest that the information parents have about local schools is endogenous to the choice environment they face, and that parental information depends not just on the availability of data, but also the incentive to seek and use it. |
| JEL: | H75 I20 I28 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23445&r=dcm |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | Les grands événements constituent un secteur dynamique et en expansion rapide qui présente des effets de synergie évidents avec le tourisme. Bien gérés et organisés, ils peuvent entraîner un développement de l’économie du tourisme, offrir un retentissement médiatique, promouvoir le développement régional, et stimuler la modernisation des infrastructures. Le présent rapport s’intéresse plus particulièrement aux événements de grande ampleur - ponctuels ou périodiques – capables d’attirer un grand nombre de participants ou de spectateurs nationaux ou internationaux, favorisant ainsi une évolution de la dynamique territoriale et le développement du tourisme. Ce rapport examine les approches suivies par un grand nombre de pays (grâce aux apports fournis par l’Afrique du Sud, l’Australie, le Canada, le Chili, le Danemark, l’Égypte, l’Espagne, l’Estonie, la France, l’Irlande, l’Islande, l’Italie, le Mexique, la Nouvelle-Zélande, la République tchèque, le Royaume-Uni, la Russie et la Turquie) afin de mieux comprendre les politiques et les pratiques adoptées en rapport avec les grands événements pour favoriser la croissance du secteur touristique. Une sélection des principaux enseignements a été établie pour les villes, les régions et les pays qui souhaitent tirer parti des caractéristiques propres aux grands événements pour favoriser le développement de l’économie du tourisme. |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaad:2017/2-fr&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Tatarczak (Maria Curie Sklodowska University, Lublin, Poland); Oleksandra Boichuk (Maria Curie Sklodowska University, Lublin, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The labour market situation is considered to be the most widely discussed part of economic development. However, it should be noted that the unemployment situation of young people (aged 15 -24 years) in Poland in general terms seems to be problematic. Overall, the unemployment rate among young people in Poland is significantly higher than the overall unemployment rate in the EU. Moreover, the situation varies greatly across the regions. Using multivariate techniques as a theoretical framework, the main goal of the paper is to identify groups of Polish regions that share similar patterns regarding unemployment among young people. The initial calculation is based on the concept of the taxonomic measure developed by Hellwig. The final method used to create clusters of objects (across 16 voivodeships of Poland) is cluster analysis. A segmentation of the voivodeships is observed for the years 2005 and 2014, based on selected indicators to determine the labour market situation. Through the exploration of the advantages of multivariate methods, the nature of youth unemployment is revealed in more precise detail. Indeed, dendrogram analysis divided the voivodeships into five groups, which are characterized by similar features associated with the labour market. It was found that the groups which emerged in 2005 have a different composition of regions than in 2014; this difference seems to be connected to the economic crisis. |
| Keywords: | labour market; unemployment; young people; cluster analysis |
| JEL: | C38 J42 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no130&r=dcm |
| By: | Violetta Skrodzka (Akademia Morska w Gdyni) |
| Abstract: | Jedna z form lokowania wolnych srodkow pienieznych przez osoby fizyczne sa nieruchomosci. Zainteresowanie wzbudzaja zarowno nieruchomosci lokalowe jak i gruntowe. Zakresem przedmiotowym przytaczanej tresci objeto nieruchomosci wystepujace w postaci gruntow rolnych. Do pierwszego maja 2016 r. kazda osoba fizyczna mogla stac sie wlascicielem gruntow rolnych. Swobodny zakup ziemi rolnej ograniczono restrykcyjnymi przepisami ustawy z 11 kwietnia 2003 r. o ksztaltowaniu ustroju rolnego (Dz.U. Z 2012 r. poz. 803 ze zm.) . Zmiana przepisow dotyczaca swobodnego obrotu nieruchomosciami rolnymi nie spowodowala tego, (chociaz ku temu zmierza), ze grunty rolne pozostaja jedynie w rekach rolnikow. Osoby fizyczne, ktore nabyly ziemie przed 1 majem 2016 r., a nie sa zwiazane z rolnictwem udostepniaja ja innym w drodze umowy najmu czy tez dzierzawy. Otrzymywany czynsz jest korzyscia majatkowa, ktora prawo podatkowe traktuje w szczegolny sposob. Pozytki osiagane w drodze dzierzawy przez osobe fizyczna niezwiazana z rolnictwem sa traktowane w swietle podatku dochodowego od osob fizycznych na preferencyjnych zasadach. Celem artykulu jest analiza opodatkowania dochodow uzyskiwanych przez osoby fizyczne z tytulu udostepniania nieruchomosci rolnych osobom trzecim. W opracowaniu zastosowano analize regulacji prawnych dotyczacych dzialalnosci rolniczej i podatku dochodowego od osob fizycznych. Dla okreslenia rozbieznosci w opodatkowaniu czynszu z dzierzawy nieruchomosci rolnej na cele rolnicze i nierolnicze posluzono sie analiza porownawcza i dedukcja. Wynagrodzenie otrzymywane z dzierzawy gospodarstwa rolnego lub jego skladnikow na cele rolnicze nie stanowi zrodla przychodow w rozumieniu podatku dochodowego od osob fizycznych. Przychody uzyskiwane z udostepniania osobom trzecim innych nieruchomosci lub gospodarstw rolnych na cele nierolnicze podlegaja opodatkowaniu podatkiem dochodowym od osob fizycznych. Tutaj otrzymywany czynsz stanowi zrodlo przychodow w podatku dochodowym od osob fizycznych i podlega zgloszeniu do wlasciwego urzedu skarbowego. |
| Keywords: | gospodarstwo rolne, dzialalnosc rolnicza, podatek dochodowy przy dzierzawie gruntow rolnych na cele rolnicze i nierolnicze |
| JEL: | K11 K12 K34 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no116&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Mazurkiewicz (University of Rzeszow, Poland) |
| Abstract: | W gospodarce opartej na wiedzy o konkurencyjnosci przedsiebiorstw w coraz wiekszym stopniu decyduje umiejetnosc korzystania z posiadanych zasobow. Szczegolna rola przypisywana jest zasobom o charakterze niematerialnym. Zasobem strategicznie waznym we wspolczesnym przedsiebiorstwie jest talent – pracownik utalentowany. Zasoby jednak nie sa cenne same w sobie, lecz maja znaczenie w aspekcie dzialañ ukierunkowanych na osiagniecie przewagi konkurencyjnej. Pozyskanie i zatrzymanie pracownikow utalentowanych, ze wzgledu na ich wybitnosc, staje sie jednym z najwiekszych wyzwañ w wielu przedsiebiorstwach. Uwzgledniajac specyficzne ich cechy, potrzeby i oczekiwania, zagadnieniem o charakterze kluczowym staje sie stworzenie mozliwosci realizacji kariery. Celem opracowania jest wykazanie znaczenia kariery jednostek utalentowanych dla przewagi konkurencyjnej wspolczesnego przedsiebiorstwa. Jego realizacja dokonana zostanie w wyniku przedstawienia talentu jako zrodla przewagi konkurencyjnej. Ukazane zostanie znaczenie wspolczesnych modeli kariery dla jednostek utalentowanych, jak rowniez z perspektywy przedsiebiorstwa. Artykul ma charakter teoretyczny. Przedmiotowe rozwazania przeprowadzone zostaly na podstawie analizy literatury przede wszystkim z zakresu nauk o zarzadzaniu: zarzadzania strategicznego oraz zarzadzania zasobami ludzkimi. Wazne uzupelnienie przeprowadzonych rozwazañ stanowily spostrzezenia sformulowane w literaturze z zakresu psychologii. Zastosowano metode rozumowania dedukcyjnego. Skonfrontowano nowe trendy w zarzadzaniu kariera pracownikow we wspolczesnych organizacjach z zalozeniami przyjmowanymi w zarzadzaniu talentami, uwzgledniajac kontekst strategiczny funkcjonowania przedsiebiorstwa. Kariera stanowi nadal srodek do realizacji zamierzeñ strategicznych organizacji, zwlaszcza w okresie trwajacej „wojny o talenty”. Tymczasowosc relacji zatrudnienia oraz duza mobilnosc pracownikow utalentowanych sprawiaja, ze w przypadku tej grupy pracownikow organizacje powinny dazyc do budowania relacji dlugoterminowych w wyniku zarzadzania ich kariera wewnatrz organizacji. Takie ksztaltowanie karier przyczyni sie do realizacji zamierzeñ strategicznych przedsiebiorstwa. |
| Keywords: | talent, zarzadzanie talentami, zarzadzanie kariera, wspolczesne modele karier, przewaga konkurencyjna |
| JEL: | M12 M51 M53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no76&r=dcm |
| By: | Petra Jílkova (Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic); Pavla Ko atkova Stranska (Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis started in the USA and extended to the European market in 2009 – 2010 and caused significant problems in the banking sector. Czech banks were not significantly affected and recorded a profit in many cases and there was no need for government intervention. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of the economic situation of the Czech Republic on the performance and profitability of the banking market through selected determinants. Constructing a linear regression model predicts the values of the dependent variable from the variability of the values of the independent variables. In particular, the final report focusses on measuring the performance and profitability of the banking sector using the method of “Multiple linear regression”. The basis for multiple linear regression model is to estimate the effect of each independent variable Xi to the dependent variable Y. The force of the impact, determine the regression coefficients betha, also determining which independent variables have the greatest and the smallest effect on the dispersion of the dependent variables. In other words, how much of the variance of the dependent variable is explained by selected independent variables. In addition, a literature review and analysis of secondary are based on data published on or before 1. February 2017. This paper clarifies the structure of the Czech banking sector and it is focused on the performance and profitability in the defined time period and how it compares with the selected banking sector and indicators in other countries. On account of data availability for all the years examined, only selected banks were included. |
| Keywords: | bank, financial sector, linear regression analyses, performance, profitability |
| JEL: | G21 M31 C38 O16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no41&r=dcm |
| By: | Mario Coccia |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to focus on similarity and/or heterogeneity of taxonomies of innovation present in the economic fields to show as the economic literature uses different names to indicate the same type of technical change and innovation, and the same name for different types of innovation. This ambiguity of classification makes it impossible to compare the various studies; moreover the numerous typologies existing in the economics of innovation, technometrics, economics of technical change, management of technology, etc., have hindered the development of knowledge in these fields. The research presents also new directions on the classification of innovation that try to overcome these problems. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.08955&r=dcm |
| By: | Muñoz García, Alberto; Hernández Banadik, Nicolás Jorge |
| Abstract: | In the last years the concept of data depth has been increasingly used in Statistics as a center-outward ordering of sample points in multivariate data sets. Recently data depth has been extended to functional data. In this paper we propose new intrinsic functional data depths based on the representation of functional data on Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces, and test its performance against a number of well known alternatives in the problem of functional outlier detection. |
| Keywords: | Outlier detection; Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces; Functional Data Analysis; Kernel depth |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:24615&r=dcm |
| By: | Rachel Shapiro; Robert G. Wood |
| Abstract: | This issue brief shares highlights from the implementation evaluation of an adolescent pregnancy prevention program funded by Kentucky’s Personal Responsibility Education Program (PREP) grant. The Reducing the Risk curriculum was designed to meet the needs of rural youth. |
| Keywords: | teen, pregnancy, prevention, PREP, evidence-based programs |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:93b8847a00bc42c5acc47c67f4282628&r=dcm |
| By: | Damian Kozbur |
| Abstract: | Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-dimensional sparse linear models. Probabilistic bounds for prediction error norm and number of selected covariates are proved. The analysis in this paper gives sharp rates and does not require β-min or irrepresentability conditions. |
| Keywords: | Forward regression, high-dimensional models, sparsity, model selection |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:253&r=dcm |
| By: | Rodríguez-Álvarez, Ana; Rosete-Rivero, Mayte |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this work is to study the effects that supply and demand factors have on waiting lists. With this aim, the authors discuss a model which explains the factors that can affect the production of healthcare, demand for healthcare, and finally, the inequalities between health supply and demand. This analysis proves that, due to imbalances between supply and demand, there is an excess of demand that is equal to the waiting lists. This demand excess is called the waiting list function. Hence, the second part of this paper develops an empirical analysis which estimates the function for the waiting lists of Spanish public hospitals for the period 1996 to 2009. As a result of the estimation, the supply and demand factors influencing waiting lists, as well as their evolution, are determined and studied. An imbalance between supply and demand reduces the supply and increases demand resulting in the amount traded by the market being less than potential demand. |
| Keywords: | hospital waiting lists,Spanish public healthcare,NHS,excess demand,demand and supply factors |
| JEL: | H4 I3 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201725&r=dcm |
| By: | Shastitko, Andrey E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Morosanova, Anastasia A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Meleshkina, Anna I. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This work reflects the main aspects that must be taken into account when developing and modifying policies for regulating the sphere of intellectual property. Piracy, despite all its obvious shortcomings, has a number of positive properties, which can be useful for the owners of the rights to RIA: informational, network and indirect effects. The paper presents a mathematical model, showing a case where the protection of RIA introduced in contrast to the actions of Pirates may cause more damage to public welfare than itself piracy. There is a need for a more flexible tool (than the system of intellectual property), which would make each owner of the IP able to choose required level of protection. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021704&r=dcm |
| By: | Andor, Mark; Parmeter, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Stochastic frontier analysis is a popular tool to assess firm performance. Almost universally it has been applied using maximum likelihood estimation. An alternative approach, pseudolikelihood estimation, decouples estimation of the error component structure and the production frontier, has been adopted in both the nonparametric and panel data settings. To date, no formal comparison has yet to be conducted comparing these methods in a standard, parametric cross sectional framework. We produce a comparison of these two competing methods using Monte Carlo simulations. Our results indicate that pseudolikelihood estimation enjoys almost identical performance to maximum likelihood estimation across a range of scenarios and performance metrics, and for certain metrics outperforms maximum likelihood estimation when the distribution of inefficiency is incorrectly specied. |
| Keywords: | stochastic frontier analysis,maximum likelihood,production function,Monte Carlo simulation |
| JEL: | C1 C5 D2 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:693&r=dcm |
| By: | Mariusz Zielinski (Opole University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The Central and Eastern European countries suffered from a decrease in professional activity and increases in unemployment, income inequality, and underemployment. In most of the countries in the region, it was decided to increase labour market flexibility, adopting a Western European model of labour market functioning. The effects of deregulation (flexibility increase) for the labour market depend to a great extent on the economic situation. The paper attempts to answer the question of the degree to which changes in the employment level and structure can be explained by changes in the economic situation. The article verified two hypotheses: “the employment level reacts to changes in the economic situation; however, this reaction in the Central and Eastern European countries is more severe than the average reaction in the European Union” (H1) and “changes in the economic situation decide to a greater extent the employment level in the groups experiencing discrimination (women, youngest and oldest people) more than for employees in general” (H2). The research encompassed 11 Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia) on the basis of statistical data published by Eurostat for the period of 2004 to 2015. Data analysis was performed using the correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination. In the majority of the examined countries, a statistically significant correlation occurs between changes in GDP and total employment level; furthermore, the influence of changes in GDP on the employment level is greater than the European Union’s average. The data do not indicate discrimination against certain groups (women, young people, people in pre-retirement age), changes in the employment levels of the aforementioned groups are less dependent on the economic situation than the changes in total employment. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, employment, discrimination on the labor market, Central and Eastern European countries, European Union |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J16 J21 J70 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no147&r=dcm |
| By: | Andrés Alegría,; Rodrigo Alfaro; Felipe Córdova |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how central bank communications can play a role in macroprudential supervision. We document how specific warnings about real estate markets, published in the Central Bank of Chile’s Financial Stability Reports of 2012, affected bank lending policies. We provide empirical evidence of a rebalancing in the characteristics of mortgage loans granted, with a reduction in the number of mortgage loans with high loan-to-value ratios (LTV), along with an increase in loans with lower LTV ratios. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:798&r=dcm |
| By: | L. Frigau; T. Medda; V. Pelligra |
| Abstract: | We replicate in the lab an artefactual field experiment originally run with a representative sample of the population. Our results show that, despite the many differences between university students and representative subjects from the whole population, the two samples closely follow a common behavioral pattern in a set of binary dictator games. The only exception seems to be represented by a significant difference in those situations where self-interest plays a prominent role. This gap is mainly related to the academic background of the participants - our sample of undergraduate economics students, in fact, differs in its degree of self-interested choices both from the representative group of the population and from its sub-sample of students from heterogeneous disciplines. |
| Keywords: | Prosocial Behavior;Methodology;External Validity;Experiments |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201704&r=dcm |
| By: | Edward Herbst; Frank Schorfheide |
| Abstract: | The accuracy of particle filters for nonlinear state-space models crucially depends on the proposal distribution that mutates time t-1 particle values into time t values. In the widely-used bootstrap particle filter, this distribution is generated by the state-transition equation. While straightforward to implement, the practical performance is often poor. We develop a self-tuning particle filter in which the proposal distribution is constructed adaptively through a sequence of Monte Carlo steps. Intuitively, we start from a measurement error distribution with an inflated variance, and then gradually reduce the variance to its nominal level in a sequence of tempering steps. We show that the filter generates an unbiased and consistent approximation of the likelihood function. Holding the run time fixed, our filter is substantially more accurate in two DSGE model applications than the bootstrap particle filter. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23448&r=dcm |
| By: | Rahma Daly (University of Evry Val d’Essonne (EPEE)); Marc-Arthur Diaye (University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, Sorbonne Center for Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses cross-sectional linked employer-employee data col- lected from the French Working Conditions Survey, to assess the po- tential positive or negative effect of performance appraisal interviews administered by firms on employees’ reported levels of psychosocial risk. A subjective measure of the psychosocial risks is used and in- dicates a perceived level of risk. In order to obtain a more objective evaluation, we compare the employees’ perceived level of psychosocial risk and the level of risk reported by firms. The results show that the reported levels of psychosocial risk decrease when employees receive performance evaluation reviews on a regular basis; reviews whose ef- fects vary depending on the type of psychosocial risk. |
| Keywords: | psychosocial risks, performance appraisal, aggregation methods, propensity score matching, endogenous switching regression |
| JEL: | C43 J28 M54 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:17-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Luis J. Álvarez (Banco de España); Ana Gómez-Loscos (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a survey of output gap modeling techniques, which are of special interest for policy making institutions. We distinguish between univariate -which estimate trend output on the basis of actual output, without taking into account the information contained in other variables–, and multivariate methods –which incorporate useful information on some other variables, based on economic theory. We present the main advantages and drawbacks of the different methods. |
| Keywords: | output gap, potential output, business cycle, trend output, survey |
| JEL: | E32 O4 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1720&r=dcm |
| By: | Morrison, Alan; Thanassoulis, John |
| Abstract: | We study a firm with ethical employees who can adopt a profitable working practice that may harm their customers. Their response to this dilemma reflects their compensation contract as well as their ethical willpower. We identify optimal compensation contracts under utilitarian and deontological (duty-based) ethical standards. With utilitarian employees, and irrespective of employee willpower, a profit maximising firm with sophisticated customers generates the ethically best outcome. Organizational culture emerges as an equilibrium phenomenon. If the firm is a partnership, if sales commissions are hidden, or if customers are naive the firm may use bonuses to create a culture of malpractice. |
| Keywords: | behavioural norms; bonuses; Culture; Ethics |
| JEL: | D03 G02 G20 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12060&r=dcm |
| By: | Holger Sieg; Yu Wang |
| Abstract: | We develop and estimate a dynamic model to study the impact of student debt on education, career, and marriage market choices of young female lawyers. Our model accounts for several important institutional features of the labor market for lawyers, including differences in the work hours across occupational tracks and learning about the prospects of promotion to partner. Some female students need to take on large amounts of student debt to finance their education and hence start their careers with large amounts of negative wealth. The empirical findings suggest that student debt has negative effects on marriage prospects, career prospects, and investments in educational quality of female lawyers. The analysis also provides new insights into the design of public policies that aim to increase public sector employment. We show that it is possible to design conditional wage or debt service subsidy programs that significantly increase public sector career choices at reasonable costs. |
| JEL: | J12 J24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23453&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Kulyk (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski, Poland); Anna Kowalewicz (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski, Poland); Aleksandra Nowomiejska (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Bio-economy regional level is essential for the socio-economic impact, especially in sparsely populated peripheral areas. The positive effects of bio-economy in the agro-food sector can be regarded as an increase in em-ployment and incomes and security of supply. The purpose of the article was to define and determine the potential of bio-economy in the polish Voivodships. In addition, it attempts to define the role of bio-economy in the agro-food sector, including the environmental aspects. The study covered the period 2005-2015. In order to assess the influence of macroeconomic factors on the development of sustainable agriculture the article used method of panel analysis with fixed effects. The data for the analysis was taken from the statistical data from the Local Data Bank (BDL), the Central Statistical Office and the Chief Inspectorate of Trade Quality of Agricultural and Food (GIJHARS). In order to increase the potential of the region it is necessary to recognize the im-portance of local knowledge as a stimulant of competitiveness of regional devel-opment, while taking into account the diversity and complexity of local systems. In order to improve opportunities for bio-economy and green growth it is necessary to better understand the role of natural capital and related changes.The integration of cross-sectoral dimensions of ecological, social-cultural and socio-economic development in the process of regional management is becoming important. In this context, there is a need for further study of the so-cio-economic conditions to determine the regional conditions providing a perma-nently sustainable development with the use of bio-economy in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | bio-economy, local development, economic and social determinants, the Lubuskie Voivodeship, sustainable agriculture |
| JEL: | O13 Q01 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no49&r=dcm |
| By: | Fang, Zheng (School of Business, SIM University, Singapore); Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the city-level cointegrating and Granger causal relationships between economic growth, electricity consumption and human capital during a period of 2003-2012 in China. Applying the Continuously-updated fully modified OLS panel estimation, we find that for China as a whole physical and human capital have similar positive impacts on local economic growth, which are slightly larger than the effect of electricity consumption. A 1% rise in either physical or human capital investment boosts economic growth by 0.07% and the output elasticity of electricity consumption is 0.06. Comparatively, electricity consumption plays a dominant role to boost economic growth in the Center, human capital contributes most to growth in the East, and growth in the West benefits most from physical capital investments. Using a Granger causality test that is suitable for heterogeneous panels, we find a uni-directional causal relationship running from economic growth to electricity consumption in central and western China and a feedback effect in eastern China. In terms of the causal relationship between electricity consumption and education expenditure, electricity Granger causes education expenditure in some eastern Chinese cities and a reverse relationship is observed for cities in Middle China, while for western cities a bi-directional causal link is found. Local policies should therefore vary and be coordinated across government agencies. |
| Keywords: | Electricity consumption, education expenditure, heterogeneous panel causality, Chinese cities |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-02&r=dcm |
| By: | François Bareille; Pierre Dupraz |
| Abstract: | Previous studies on the productive value of biodiversity emphasized that crop diversity increases crop yields. Here, we focus on the productivity of crop diversity and permanent grasslands for crops and milk. Using a GMM approach, we estimate detailed production functions using a sample of 3960 mixed farms from the FADN between 2002 and 2013. We highlight that permanent grasslands enhance crop production. We confirm that crop diversity increases crop and milk yields. Permanent grasslands and crop diversity are however substitute inputs. We also find that both of these biodiversity productive capacities influence variable input productivities. These results suggest the potential adaptations of farmers’ choices to environmental measures. |
| Keywords: | ecosystem services, agriculture, permanent grassland, crop diversity |
| JEL: | Q12 Q57 D22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rae:wpaper:17-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Gabrielli, Florencia; Lazzarini, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Existe una vasta literatura, teórica y empírica, que señala la relación positiva entre competitividad cambiaria y desarrollo productivo, fundamentalmente debido al impacto favorable de un tipo de cambio real “alto” en la rentabilidad de los sectores no tradicionales. Sin embargo, el nivel del tipo de cambio real no es el único factor que incide en la rentabilidad empresarial y, sobre todo, no lo hace con la misma intensidad en las distintas actividades económicas. A fin de indagar con mayor profundidad sobre el impacto diferenciado de variaciones en el tipo de cambio real en las distintas ramas de la actividad económica, en este trabajo se analiza el vínculo entre rentabilidad empresarial y competitividad cambiaria al interior de la industria manufacturera (IM) argentina. Para ello se examina el impacto de las variaciones en el tipo de cambio real sobre la rentabilidad de las distintas ramas de la IM, utilizando la base de datos de la Central de Balances del Banco Central de la República Argentina (CB-BCRA) que contiene información acerca de los balances de las personas jurídicas del sector privado no financiero para el período 2005-2010. |
| Keywords: | INDUSTRIA, PRODUCTOS MANUFACTURADOS, INGRESOS, GANANCIA, MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS, TIPOS DE CAMBIO, DATOS ESTADISTICOS, INDUSTRY, MANUFACTURES, INCOME, PROFIT, ECONOMETRIC MODELS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, STATISTICAL DATA |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:41587&r=dcm |
| By: | Mateusz Pipieñ (Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Cracow University of Economics); Sylwia Roszkowska (Department of Macroeconomics, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | For two groups of post-communist countries (CEE and CIS) we estimated the parameters of convergence equations on the basis of annual data. We depart from standard econometric theory, which involves panel regression techniques. We test cross-country heterogeneity of parameters within a system of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). We show empirical evidence in favour of the variability of parameters describing the convergence effect and productivity growth rates across countries. Our approach seems a convincing alternative to the panel regression approach where random effects can be estimated, imposing an assumption about the constancy of structural parameters within the group of countries under analysis. We discuss the role of the global financial crisis in the heterogeneity of convergence processes and productivity at the country level. The aforementioned SURE model was estimated based on two datasets, one containing observations prior to the crisis and the second containing the whole sample |
| Keywords: | convergence; labour productivity; economic growth; SURE |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:7/2017&r=dcm |
| By: | VU, Tien Manh |
| Abstract: | We examine the transition of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam from a wageperspective by decomposing the difference in wage distributions between SOE mployees and non-SOE employees during the period 2002–2014. In 2002, SOE employees enjoyed higher pay than non-SOE employees owing to characteristics difference and any factors other than either the price of skills or the characteristics difference, so-called residuals difference. University graduates were the main contributor to the endowments difference. However, we found that SOE pay schemes converged with those of non-SOEs by 2014, in terms of both the price of skills and residuals. |
| Keywords: | Wage, wage decomposition, wage distribution, state-owned enterprises, transition, Vietnam, Wage, wage decomposition, wage distribution, state-owned enterprises, transition, Vietnam, J30, J45, O15, P31 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000130&r=dcm |
| By: | Harro van Asselt (Stockholm Environment Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the implications of regionalism for the interaction between trade and climate policy. It examines the implications of regional climate governance for international trade and conversely the implications of regional trade governance for climate change action. Regional approaches to climate change governance are discussed with a specific focus on the rise of “climate clubs” and their implications for international trade. Moreover, regional trade agreements and their current environmental provisions related to climate change are also examined. Building on these analyses, this report explores the various ways in which regional trade agreements could address climate change objectives, and draws lessons from recent developments in regional trade governance for the further evolution of such agreements. |
| Keywords: | climate clubs, climate coalitions, free trade agreements, regional trade agreements, Trade and environment |
| JEL: | F13 F18 Q54 Q56 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaaa:2017/3-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Mariola Sasinowska (University of Warsaw, Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The article is primarily based on the research in the field of welfare economics, utility theory, social capital and econometrics. In the paper are discussed articles such authors as Bjornskov, Easterlin, Ravallion and Uslaner. Purpose of the article: The purpose is to explore the generalized social trust and subjective welfare of Poles and to their relationship. According to the author’s knowledge, such extensive research like this for Poland has not been yet conducted. Methodology of the article: Data sample used in the research comes from the project "Wycena, Aspekty Sprawiedliwosci i Preferencje Wzgledem Odnawialnych Zrodel Energii i ich lokalizacji w Polsce i w Niemczech" which was carried out with the support of the National Science Center. Econometric model was prepared based on the least squares method and the ordered probit model. Findings & Value Added: The main outcome of this paper is confirmed importance of the relationship between social trust and the subjective welfare of Poles. Furthermore, it has been proven that both social trust and subjective wealth can be linked both to income and non-income related factors such as inequality and education. |
| Keywords: | welfare economy; subjective economic welfare; social trust; ordered probit model |
| JEL: | D1 D6 I3 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no107&r=dcm |
| By: | Ellen Kisker; Lauren Murphy; Robert G. Wood |
| Abstract: | This issue brief shares highlights from the implementation evaluation of the Wise Guys program, funded by Iowa’s Personal Responsibility Education Program (PREP) grant. The Wise Guys curriculum aims to promote male responsibility and discourage early entry into fatherhood. |
| Keywords: | teen, pregnancy, prevention, PREP, fatherhood |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:fab96481e8564afb8cdb26bf0254fc98&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Horodecka (Warsaw School of Economics, Poland); Liudmyla Vozna (Independent researcher) |
| Abstract: | The authors’ researches in the field of economic equilibrium, labour market stability and working motivation; the synergetic paradigm; the research literature and statistical data dealing with wage inequality and unemployment. To present a dispersion (probabilistic) approach in using neoclassic demand and supply curves analysis and, thus, to propose a new definition of the equilibrium problem, which is closer to evolutionary paradigm; with help of the D-S curves, to prove the connection between degree of wage inequality and the general level of unemployment; to demonstrate two types of extreme macroeconomic instability in their relation with the character of wage inequality, and to regard them from the standpoint of the synergetic conception. Induction and deduction reasoning, analysis and synthesis, the method of analogy, content analysis of relevant literature, mathematical methods, interdisciplinary approach, the synthesis of orthodox (neoclassical) and heterodox (evolutionary) economics. Both situations – very low and very high wage inequality – are related with extreme macroeconomic instability. The first situation can be related not only with general poverty and homogenous, low skilled workforce, but, primarily, with absence of evolutionary change. A very high wage inequality can be related with inflexible labour markets, the relatively low level of social mobility and weak social cohesion. In the article, these two situations are compared with two types of disorder in the synergetic conception. With help of the curves of demand and supply, we demonstrate the action of macroeconomic synergistic effect, which is accompanied by economic growth, decreasing unemployment and the wage levelling. Our approach confirms that in a dynamic economy the actual level of employment is lower than potential one. Moreover, this approach can be used for diminishing the theoretical gap between such opposing interpretation of unemployment as neoclassical and Keynesian. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, unemployment, instability, evolutionary economics, synergistic effect |
| JEL: | B4 D63 E24 J2 J31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no37&r=dcm |
| By: | Volker Hahn (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We analyze a simple yet fully non-linear New Keynesian model with a central bank that pursues an inflation targeting strategy. Our analysis shows that expected adverse productivity shocks may drive the economy into a liquidity trap. As our model entails positive or moderately negative inflation in such a situation, it has the potential to explain the so-called “missing disinflation” in the Great Recession. In contrast with some previous papers, we find that the effects of fiscal policy in a liquidity trap are moderate and that reductions in labor income taxes are expansionary. We do not find support for higher inflation targets. Finally, we provide additional support for the view that the common practice of log-linearizing equilibrium relations can be potentially misleading in models with a lower bound on nominal interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Zero lower bound, missing disinflation, fiscal multiplier, liquidity trap, new Keynesian model, multiple equilibria, inflation target |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E62 |
| Date: | 2017–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:knz:dpteco:1705&r=dcm |
| By: | Davis, Brent |
| Abstract: | Negative political advertising is a common feature of election campaigns in liberal democracies, whether in the milder form of ‘contrast ads’ or the more aggressive form of ‘attack ads’. Despite a substantial volume of scholarship, whether such advertisements generate persuasion effects (persuading voters of the deficiencies in the subject of the ads) or backlash effects (diminishing the standing of the candidate/party promulgating the ads) remains a still-unresolved question. This ‘persuasion or backlash’ question may well reflect the implicit assumption in many of the research designs, and their associated (and consequently mis-specified) models: that causality runs from negative political advertising to vote intention. This article tests that assumption, and finds it wanting. Testing for endogeneity indicates a bi-directional causality between negative political advertising and vote intention; each causes the other, but with differential temporal profiles. For electoral scholars (and campaign strategists) this means the decision(s) to engage in negative political advertising is not just if, by whom or how, but also when. |
| Keywords: | election campaigns; political advertising; voter behavior; politico-econometric modelling; endogeneity; election forecasting |
| JEL: | C53 C54 D72 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79449&r=dcm |
| By: | Gianpaolo Parise; Kim Peijnenburg |
| Abstract: | We explore how financial distress and choices are affected by noncognitive abilities. Our measures stem from research in psychology and economics. In a representative panel of households, we find that people in the bottom decile of noncognitive abilities are five times more likely to experience financial distress compared to those in the top decile. Relatedly, individuals with lower noncognitive abilities make financial choices that increase their likelihood of distress: They are less likely to plan for retirement and save, and more likely to buy impulsively and to have unsecured debt. Causality is shown using childhood trauma as an instrument. |
| Keywords: | Noncognitive abilities, financial distress, financial choices, saving, unsecured debt, behavioral finance, psychology and economics |
| JEL: | D10 D14 G02 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:640&r=dcm |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | Les résultats de l’Évaluation des compétences des adultes (PIAAC) confirment que la maîtrise de la langue du pays d’accueil joue un rôle essentiel dans la réussite de l’intégration des immigrés dans leur nouvelle communauté et sur le marché du travail de leur pays d’accueil. Au vu de ces constats, les pays d’accueil pourraient concevoir et mettre en oeuvre des politiques afin de proposer aux immigrés une formation linguistique dès que possible, après leur arrivée. Cette mesure revêt une importance toute particulière pour les enfants immigrés, qui pourront ensuite poursuivre leur scolarité avec leurs pairs autochtones. |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduabc:6-fr&r=dcm |
| By: | Géraldine Ang (OECD); Pralhad Burli (Montclair State University); Dirk Röttgers (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This working paper undertakes econometric analysis to assess the impacts of climate mitigation policies and the quality of the investment environment on investment and innovation in renewable power in OECD and G20 countries. It also assesses how countries’ investment environments interact with climate mitigation policies to influence investment and patent activity in renewable power. The paper gathered and tested data across OECD and G20 countries on more than 70 explanatory variables, which were analysed using two Poisson-family regression models: one to investigate determinants of investment flows in renewable power from 2000 until 2014; and one to investigate determinants of patent counts in renewable-power technologies from 2000 until 2012. Results of the econometric analysis are consistent with the main hypothesis in this paper that beyond setting climate mitigation policies, policy makers need to strengthen the general investment environment and align it with climate mitigation policies in order to mobilise investment and innovation in renewable power across OECD and G20 countries. |
| Keywords: | climate change, climate finance, estimation, public intervention, regression |
| JEL: | F30 H23 L94 O3 Q42 Q48 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:123-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Grant, Everett (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Yung, Julieta (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | We estimate global inter-firm networks across all major industries from 1981 through 2016 and provide the first empirical tests for both robust (beneficial) and fragile (harmful) network behavior, relating firms' health with global integration. More connected firms are less likely to be in distress and have higher profit growth and equity returns, but are also more exposed to direct contagion from distressed neighboring firms and network level crises. Our analysis reveals the centrality of finance in the international firm network and increased globalization, with greater potential for crises to spread globally when they do occur. |
| JEL: | C3 F36 F61 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:313&r=dcm |
| By: | Bergin, James P. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Panel Opening Remarks at the Forex Network New York 2017, New York City. |
| Keywords: | Global Foreign Exchange Committee (GFXC); Market Participants Group; code of conduct; New York Foreign Exchange Committee (FXC); global code of conduct; principles; last look; voluntary code; adherence to code; Statement of Commitment |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:249&r=dcm |
| By: | Jacqueline Doremus (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how a road connection in a remote area of Congo changes hunger and illness for ethnic minorities. Ethnic minorities’ production activities are highly local, making it hard to construct a valid counter-factual. We exploit a natural experiment: a river boundary between two forests, one of which builds roads to satisfy eco-certification. We find the road increases trade and leads to the export of farmed food products. People and households increase production and specialize. Ethnic minorities, net buyers of exported food during this season, face higher prices and lower real wages. We find the road increases their frequency of hunger and illness. In Central Africa, hunting restrictions accompany roads to prevent over exploitation of fauna. We find the restrictions reduce hunting effort for all households. Households shift consumption to fish but, on net, consume protein less frequently, with non-fisher households seeing the largest decreases. |
| Keywords: | ethnic inequality, rural roads, nutrition, poverty, Africa, Congo |
| JEL: | O12 J15 J24 O18 Q12 F14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpl:wpaper:1702&r=dcm |
| By: | Tran, Hien Thu; Carbonara, Emanuela; Santarelli, Enrico |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present an occupational choice model for entrepreneurs, in which, based on their individual skills and on the quality of their business, entrepreneurs can keep their original business, open a new business in the same or another sector along the current business (portfolio entrepreneur), shut it down to either start a new one (serial entrepreneur) or to turn to dependent employment. We test our theory using a 10-year panel dataset (2001 to 2010) of more than 4,000 Vietnamese manufacturing firms. We estimate an occupational choice model and a survival model and find that: (i) a greater endowment of human capital is associated with a higher likelihood to become a serial or a portfolio entrepreneur; (ii) A higher quality of the new business is associated to a higher likelihood of being habitual entrepreneurs. Particularly, high entrepreneurial skills together with a high-quality business positively influence the likelihood to be serial or portfolio; (iii) novice entrepreneurs with high entrepreneurial skill and a high-quality business are more likely to keep their business. |
| Keywords: | Portfolio entrepreneurship,serial entrepreneurship,occupational choice,industrial policy |
| JEL: | F02 L26 L53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:74&r=dcm |
| By: | Federico Palucci (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Annalisa Terracina (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Massimo Mecella (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This document describes the realization of “Gea 2:A New Earth†, a serious game for supporting STEM teaching in high school, coping with both technological and pedagogical challenges, and thought as a supporting teaching tool to be used in classes, as an alternative to the more traditional frontal lessons. |
| Keywords: | Unity ; serious game ; technology enhanced learning ; STEM |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aeg:report:2017-06&r=dcm |
| By: | Eleni Dalla (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy, in the context of a theoretical model that captures both the banking and the firm behavior. Following the industrial organization approach to banking, the banking sector is described by a two-stage Cournot game with scope economies. On the other hand, the firm behavior concerns the investment decision which is explained using a second order accelerator model in discrete time. Considering the interbank rate and the reserve requirements as the instruments of monetary policy, it is demonstrated that its effectiveness depends on the type of scope economies in the oligopolistic banking sector.. |
| Keywords: | interbank rate, investment decision, reserve requirements, scope economies. |
| JEL: | G21 L13 D92 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2017_05&r=dcm |
| By: | Greer Gosnell |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the potential for environmental information and dissonance-inducing messaging to encourage resourceful behaviour, following a study of customers of a renewable energy provider in the UK. It uses the manipulation of message framing to analyse behavioural motivators that businesses may consider when encouraging customers – in this case, those who already have revealed environmental preferences – to switch from paper to online communications. In a large-scale natural field experiment comprising 38,654 customers of renewable supplier Good Energy, the author has randomised environmental information and messaging rooted in theories of cognitive dissonance in email communications promoting an active switch to paperless billing. The study finds that environmental information and imagery are ineffective in inducing behaviour change. Interestingly, the dissonance-inducing messaging weakly improves uptake among the main sample but backfires among a sub-sample of individuals with extensive postgraduate education. Contrary to the majority of the literature on gender and environmental behaviour, females in the sample are less likely to switch to paperless billing than males. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp269&r=dcm |
| By: | Gideon Bornstein; Per Krusell; Sergio Rebelo |
| Abstract: | We use a new micro data set to compile some key facts about the oil market and estimate a structural industry equilibrium model that is consistent with these facts. We find that demand and supply shocks contribute equally to the volatility of oil prices but that the volatility of investment by oil firms is driven mostly by demand shocks. Our model predicts that the advent of fracking will eventually result in a large reduction in oil price volatility. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q43 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23423&r=dcm |
| By: | Magdalena Popowska (Politechnika Gdanska, Wydzial Zarzadzania i Ekonomii, Poland); Beata Ratkowska (Politechnika Gdanska, Wydzial Zarzadzania i Ekonomii, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, there is a general understanding that stakeholders are crucial for the successful enterprise. There is also a need to think about Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in a global context. Never before corporations enjoyed so much power and authority. Corporations need to evolve, re-think their strategies and change their processes accordingly. However, as of now, there is no agreed way of measuring overall sustainability of actions of each company. There is a great need for holistic studies of CSR, analyzing in details the value created, from stakeholders point of view. This paper is an attempt to propose a way of looking at corporate social responsibility in line with current methodologies and frameworks focusing on value creation. Currently there is no one definition of global CSR to be used, nor there is one comprehensive methodology to describe it. Instead there is abundance of theories and frameworks. This paper proposes one definition and presents a method of analysis of the global corporate commitment to CSR approach. The main concern of this paper is to offer an insight into different ways companies can create value for various stakeholders groups. To narrow the scope of the conducted analysis, the authors identified 13 companies, potential sustainability winners, from products industry Analyzed were both, CSR execution capacity and CSR value creation assessed on basis of compliance with identified CSR basic actions catalogue. Conducted analysis indicated that products companies are aware of needs and expectations of various stakeholders and are good at meeting them. Although assessed companies managed to link sustainability with their strategies, they did not achieve transforming sustainability into core of their business. |
| Keywords: | CSR; sustainability; CSR reporting; CSR measuring; global CSR |
| JEL: | Q01 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no94&r=dcm |
| By: | Jennifer Jhun; Patricia Palacios; James Owen Weatherall |
| Abstract: | We study the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of financial market crashes (Johansen, Ledoit, and Sornette [2000] "Crashes as Critical Points." Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finan. 3(2) 219-255). On our view, the JLS model is a curious case from the perspective of the recent philosophy of science literature, as it is naturally construed as a "minimal model" in the sense of Batterman and Rice (Batterman and Rice [2014] "Minimal Model Explanations." Phil. Sci. 81(3): 349-376) that nonetheless provides a causal explanation of market crashes, in the sense of Woodward's interventionist account of causation (Woodward [2003]. Making Things Happen. Oxford:Oxford University Press). |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1704.02392&r=dcm |
| By: | Hawkins, Raymond J.; Nguyen, Chau N. |
| Abstract: | The authors solve the IS puzzle for the G7 countries. They find that five of the G7 countries have the expected significant negative relationship between the output gap and the realrate gap; the time series of the remaining two show material deviation from expected IScurve behavior. The authors show that the observed time dependence of the interaction between the output and real-rate gaps can be represented in a parsimonious and practical manner using the theory of anelasticity that unifies partial-adjustment specifications of the IS curve. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomics,IS curve,inflation,anelasticity |
| JEL: | C22 E3 E32 E52 E61 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201720&r=dcm |
| By: | Talat S. Genc (Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph ON Canada); Stanley S. Reynolds (Department of Economics, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the market implications of ownership of a new low-cost production technology. We relate our theoretical findings to measuring the impact of renewable energy penetration into electricity markets and examine how the ownership of renewable capacity changes market outcomes (prices, outputs, emissions). As the current public policies influence the renewable energy ownership, this research provides useful insights for policy makers. We show that ownership of renewable capacity will matter when there is market power in energy market. We apply our findings to the Ontario wholesale electricity market to analyze the impact of different ownership structures for wind capacity expansions. We show that consumers enjoy better air quality under the largest firm's ownership, but at the expense of higher prices. We find that market structure and the shape of generation cost functions are the key drivers explaining the impact of renewable ownership on market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Market structure, technology ownership, renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions |
| JEL: | D4 L1 Q5 Q4 Q2 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gue:guelph:2017-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Prescott, Edward Simpson (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Nurisso, George (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | This paper traces the origin of the too-big-to-fail problem in banking to the bailout of the $1.2 billion Bank of the Commonwealth in 1972. It describes this bailout and those of subsequent banks through that of Continental Illinois in 1984. Motivations behind the bailouts are described with a particular emphasis on those provided by Irvine Sprague in his book Bailout. During this period, market concentration due to interstate banking restrictions is a factor in most of the bailouts, and systemic risk concerns were raised to justify the bailouts of surprisingly small banks. Sprague’s descriptions are also used to describe the trade offs and the time-consistency problem faced by bank regulators. Finally, most of the bailouts in this period relied on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s use of the Essentiality Doctrine. A discussion of this doctrine is provided and used to illustrate how legal constraints on regulators may become less constraining over time. |
| Keywords: | Too big to fail; deposit insurance; banking; time consistency; TBTF; |
| JEL: | G21 G28 N22 |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1710&r=dcm |
| By: | Gina Livermore; Maura Bardos; Hannah Burak |
| Abstract: | This is the first of two primary reports that will describe the findings of the Pathways evaluation. |
| Keywords: | SourceAmerica, Pathways, Careers, Utah |
| JEL: | I J |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:fde95a28c9164e0b8b410104ede05bd9&r=dcm |
| By: | Matthew Johnson; Alicia Demers; Cleo Jacobs Johnson; Claudia Gentile |
| Abstract: | In each of its first five years, the Kauffman School had positive, statistically significant, and educationally meaningful impacts on student achievement growth in mathematics, English language arts and science, beyond the growth achieved by students in other Kansas City public schools. |
| Keywords: | Charter School, Closing the Achievement Gap, Secondary School Evaluation |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:917049103ecc4f93ba12260b59a81b56&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Lukasiewicz (Department of Informatics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland); Krzysztof Karpio (Department of Informatics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland); Arkadiusz Orlowski (Department of Informatics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: studies of structures of incomes distributions have been performer for about 15 years. They indicate that there is no one model which describes the distributions in their whole range. This effect is explained by the existence of different mechanisms yielding to low-medium and high incomes. While more than 97% of the distributions can be described by models with two or three parameter, high incomes (about 3% or less) is in agreement with power law. Purpose of the article: the aim of this paper is an analysis of the structure of distributions of households’ incomes in Poland. By using various models we verify the hypothesis about two-part structure of those distributions. Methodology/methods: the studies are based on the households’ budgets microdata for years 2004 – 2012. The two-component models were used to describe the incomes distributions. The major parts of the distributions have been described by the two or three parametric models: lognormal, Dagum, and Singha-Madalla. The highest incomes were described by the Pareto model. Findings: one has showed that two or three parametric models explain from about 95% to more than 99% of ranges of income distributions. The poorest agreement with data is for lognormal model, while the best agreement has been obtained for Dagum model. Regarding the highest incomes the Pareto model describe the data very well only for the selected years. For the remaining years the results are not so obvious. The tails of the income distributions seems to have more complex structure |
| Keywords: | income distribution; incomes models; Pareto model; power law |
| JEL: | C51 C52 D31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no64&r=dcm |
| By: | Quinn, Stephen F. (Texas Christian University); Roberds, William (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract: | We investigate a monetary regime with persistent, near-zero policy interest rates ("permazero" in the terminology of Bullard 2015). This regime was implemented in 1683 by a prominent early central bank called the Bank of Amsterdam ("Bank"). The Bank fixed its policy rate at one-half percent and held it unchanged for more than a century. Maintaining the rate helped stabilize the value of Bank money. We employ archival data to reconstruct the Bank's activities during a portion of that interval (1736–91) for which data are most readily available. The data suggest that "permazero" worked well for long periods because the Bank counteracted market swings with quantitative operations. These same data show how fiscal exploitation denied the Bank sufficient resources to stabilize large shocks, with adverse results. |
| Keywords: | central banks; monetary policy; zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E58 E65 N13 |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:2017-05&r=dcm |
| By: | Paul A. Gompers (Harvard Business School, Finance Unit); Kevin Huang (Harvard Business School); Sophie Q. Wang (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of homophily in group formation. Using a unique dataset of MBA students, we observe homophily in ethnicity and gender increases the probability of forming teams by 25%. Homophily in education and past working experience increases the probability of forming teams by 17% and 11 % respectively. Homophily in education and working experience is stronger among males than females. Further, we examine the causal impact of homophily on team performance. Homophily in ethnicity increases team performance by lifting teams in bottom quantiles to median performance quantiles, but it does not increase the chance of being top performers. Our findings have implications for understanding the lack of diversity in entrepreneurship and venture capital industry. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:17-104&r=dcm |
| By: | Funke, Michael; Kirkby, Robert; Mihaylovski, Petar |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effects of macroprudential and monetary policies and their interactions using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to New Zealand. We find that the main historical drivers of house prices are shocks specific to the housing sector. While our estimates show that monetary policy has large spillover effects on house prices, it does not appear to have been a major driver of house prices in New Zealand. We consider macroprudential policies, including the loan-to-value restrictions that have been implemented in New Zealand. We find that loan-to-value restrictions reduce house prices with negligible effects on consumer prices, suggesting that they can be used without derailing monetary policy. We estimate that the loan-to-value restrictions imposed in New Zealand in 2013 reduced house prices by 3.8 per cent and that greater forward guidance on their duration would have made them more effective. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policies, Housing, DSGE, Bayesian estimation, New Zealand, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:6354&r=dcm |
| By: | Arthur Lewbel (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Lewbel (2012) provides an estimator for linear regression models containing an endogenous regressor, when no outside instruments or other such information is available. The method works by exploiting model heteroscedasticity to construct instruments using the available regressors. Some authors have considered the method in empirical applications where an endogenous regressor is binary (e.g., endogenous Diff-in-Diff or endogenous binary treatment models), without proving validity of the estimator in that case. The present paper shows that the assumptions required for Lewbel’s estimator can indeed be satisfied when an endogenous regressor is binary. |
| Keywords: | Simultaneous systems, linear regressions, endogeneity, identification, heteroscedasticity, binary regressors, dummy regressors, linear probability model, logit, probit |
| JEL: | C35 C36 C30 C13 |
| Date: | 2016–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:927&r=dcm |
| By: | Matthew Johnson; Alicia Demers; Cleo Jacobs Johnson; Claudia Gentile |
| Abstract: | In each of its first five years, the Kauffman School had positive, statistically significant, and educationally meaningful impacts on student achievement growth in mathematics, English language arts and science, beyond the growth achieved by students in other Kansas City public schools. |
| Keywords: | Charter School, Closing the Achievement Gap, Secondary School Evaluation |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:1039192a750f4d4da0058482b9a11933&r=dcm |
| By: | Miguez, Thiago; Willcox, Luiz Daniel; Daudt, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | For several reasons the capital goods industry (CGI) is strategic for Brazil. This study aims to analyze this industry’s recent behavior in a period when the Brazilian economy regained momentum. We will evaluate some opportunities for several segments in the Brazilian economy by breaking down investment into several activities while we simultaneously evaluate the Brazilian capital goods industry’s ability to benefit from these mentioned opportunities. Data from IBGE and MDIC will be used in this study and also from Capital Flow Tables (CFT) and from BNDES’ operations and estimates of future investments. |
| Keywords: | industrial structure; manufacturing; capital goods; capital flow table; gross fixed capital formation; BNDES; Brazilian economy |
| JEL: | L16 L60 L62 L63 L64 O14 O25 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79365&r=dcm |
| By: | Alejandro Barrera Escobar; Juan Felipe Castellanos Martinez; Sandra Milena Gómez Vallejo |
| Abstract: | La quinta edición de esta serie presenta un estudio sobre el sector solidario en Manizales, el cual pretende brindar un diagnóstico general de línea base de las Entidades Sin Ánimo de Lucro -ESAL- en la ciudad, debido al poco estudio y análisis que presenta actualmente en la investigación económica. El estudio pretende dar una mirada inicial al sector, partiendo de un marco conceptual sobre la denominada economía solidaria, sus generalidades y su reglamentación. Por otra parte, se busca establecer cómo está compuesto el sector, el mercado laboral que dinamiza, y los ingresos, gastos y activos de este tipo de entidades. También se presentan otros datos relevantes del sector como es la información estratégica y de percepción de las Entidades Sin Ánimo de Lucro en la ciudad de Manizales. |
| Keywords: | Sector Solidario ; Estudios Sectoriales ; Entidades Sin Ánimo de Lucro ; Fundaciones ; Asociaciones |
| Date: | 2016–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000512:015620&r=dcm |
| By: | Roberto Marfè; Julien Penasse |
| Abstract: | While time-varying disasters can explain many characteristics of financial markets, their quantitative assessment is still missing. We propose a latent variable approach to estimate the time-varying probability of a macroeconomic disaster, using a dataset of 42 countries over more than 100 years. We find that disaster risk is volatile and persistent, strongly correlates with the dividend yield, and forecasts stock returns. A state-of-the-art model calibrated with our disaster risk estimates generates a large and volatile equity premium and a low risk free rate under standard assumptions. This evidence supports the idea that investors' fear of disasters drives equity premium dynamics. |
| Keywords: | rare disasters, equity premium, return predictability, state-space model |
| JEL: | E44 G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:463&r=dcm |
| By: | Roy, Souvik; Sadhukhan, Soumyarup |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a unified characterization of the unanimous and strategy-proof random rules on a class of domains that are based on some prior ordering over the alternatives. It identifies a condition called top-richness so that, if a domain satisfies top-richness, then an RSCF on it is unanimous and strategy-proof if and only if it is a convex combination of tops-restricted min-max rules. Well-known domains like single-crossing, single-peaked, single-dipped etc. satisfy top-richness. This paper also provides a characterization of the random min-max domains. Furthermore, it offers a characterization of the tops-only and strategy-proof random rules on top-rich domains satisfying top-connectedness. Finally, it presents a characterization of the unanimous (tops-only) and group strategy-proof random rules on those domains. |
| Keywords: | Random Social Choice Functions; Unanimity; Strategy-proofness; Tops-onlyness; Uncompromisingness; Random min-max Rules; Single-crossing Domains. |
| JEL: | D71 D82 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79363&r=dcm |
| By: | Paul A. Gompers; Kevin Huang; Sophie Q. Wang |
| Abstract: | We study the role of homophily in group formation. Using a unique dataset of MBA students, we observe homophily in ethnicity and gender increases the probability of forming teams by 25%. Homophily in education and past working experience increases the probability of forming teams by 17% and 11 % respectively. Homophily in education and working experience is stronger among males than females. Further, we examine the causal impact of homophily on team performance. Homophily in ethnicity increases team performance by lifting teams in bottom quantiles to median performance quantiles, but it does not increase the chance of being top performers. Our findings have implications for understanding the lack of diversity in entrepreneurship and venture capital industry. |
| JEL: | J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23459&r=dcm |
| By: | Krotov, Alexander Y. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Krotova, Nadezhda A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kleeva, Lyudmila P. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Aganbegyan, Abel G. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the possibility of using policy of "financial afterburner" to enhance the socio-economic development of Russia is studied. The analysis of the ways of mobilizing the internal sources of investments in Russia, primarily the assets of Russian Banks, showed the sufficiency of these sources and appropriateness of prevalence of investment loan in the sources of financing the investment activities. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021701&r=dcm |
| By: | Andrew J. Seltzer; Daniel S. Hamermesh |
| Abstract: | Over the last six decades articles published in leading economic history journals have been less likely to be co-authored than articles published in leading general economics journals. However, in both economic history and general economics journals there have been strong, monotonic increases in the number of authors per article and the fraction of co-authored papers. Economics and economic history differ in the nature of collaboration, in that coauthorships in economic history are more likely to be formed of individuals of different seniority as compared to economics generally. |
| Keywords: | co-authorship, economic history and economics |
| JEL: | N01 B41 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:054&r=dcm |
| By: | Fang, Zheng (School of Business, SIM University, Singapore); Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the cointegration and Granger causal relationship between economic growth and total energy consumption as well as disaggregate energy such as coal, coke, crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity in China for a period of 1995-2014. Different from limited existing provincial studies on China, we use a multivariate framework that considers per capita human capital on top of physical capital in the neoclassical production function and advanced panel econometric methodologies that allow for cross-sectional dependence. Our results suggest that human capital exerts 2-3 times the effect of physical capital on the economy and energy also plays a significant role. Furthermore, the rich bootstrap panel Granger causality test results for both the panel and individual provinces provide substantial insights and suggest that it is important to examine the causal effects of both the total energy use and various disaggregate energy consumption before local governments make specific energy and economic policies. |
| Keywords: | energy-growth nexus, human capital, cross-sectional dependence, China |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Joanna Bednarz (Institute of International Business, University of Gdansk); Magdalena Markiewicz (Institute of International Business, University of Gdansk); Agnieszka Ploska (Self-employed, a company owner) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Crowdfunding (CF) is a method of raising money for projects and enterprises by an online platform. Since around 2003 it is getting popular and becoming a natural method of pre-financing for start-ups before reaching out to investors. The estimations gave the scale of raising worldwide 35 bn USD via CF platforms in 2015. In 2016 CF was on track to surpass venture capital investments. Yet, this method doesn’t progress equally worldwide and it is essential to find out what makes the difference of its development between the countries. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to examine the potential relation between: (1) the welfare of the countries, (2) structure of population and (3) availability of crowdfunding. The research is dedicated to the chosen countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the period of 2005-2015, giving a perspective of changes in different terms of economy. Methodology/methods: This article, theoretical and empirical in character, is based on international desk research findings. The authors used methods of data collection, organizing and processing information. Moreover, they implemented methods of analogy and deduction, while studying papers, as well as the selection, analysis and synthesis methods. Findings: There is no direct correlation between GDP per capita of the country with it online alternative investments per capita. The richness of the country does not influence people willingness to invest money through online tools. In the countries of average level of welfare, alternative financing is used more widely. Moreover, there is a significant impact of the age structure of the population on the crowdfunding development. Estonia has the youngest structure of population and even there are not many inhabitants and the GDP per capita is average, the country has the most willing online crowd investors. |
| Keywords: | crowdfunding, social funding, innovation, financing, CEE |
| JEL: | G24 L26 M13 O16 O53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no70&r=dcm |
| By: | Gerard Roland; David Y. Yang |
| Abstract: | Beliefs about whether effort pays off govern some of the most fundamental choices individuals make. This paper uses China’s Cultural Revolution to understand how these beliefs can be affected, how they impact behavior, and how they are transmitted across generations. During the Cultural Revolution, China’s college admission system based on entrance exams was suspended for a decade until 1976, effectively depriving an entire generation of young people of the opportunity to access higher education (the “lost generation”). Using data from a nationally representative survey, we compare cohorts who graduated from high school just before and after the college entrance exam was resumed. We find that members of the “lost generation” who missed out on college because they were born just a year or two too early believe that effort pays off to a much lesser degree, even 40 years into their adulthood. However, they invested more in their children’s education, and transmitted less of their changed beliefs to the next generation, suggesting attempts to safeguard their children from sharing their misfortunes. |
| JEL: | I23 O53 P26 P48 Z1 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23441&r=dcm |
| By: | Hodori, Arif; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Takaful or Islamic Insurance is a branch of Islamic Finance that is frequently overlooked, with a very few empirical studies done in the field. In Malaysia, Takaful’s asset base had grown from just RM$1.4 million in 1986 to RM$23 billion in 2014. Despite this significant growth, there has been very few empirical studies done in the field, especially on the determinants of Takaful operators’ profitability. Motivated by this, this paper aims to investigate the determinants of profitability of Takaful operators by using the dynamic GMM estimator. This study finds that Takaful operators’ size and age are significant determinants of its profitability. However, there are various limitations and challenges that this paper faced, especially on data availability which forced us to resort to manually extracting the data from the financial statements of the companies from their websites at a heavy cost of time and effort. This indicates the attention, work and effort that researchers in the field of Islamic Finance should give to this relatively unexplored field as deeper understanding of this field is crucial for supporting its growth and innovation. |
| Keywords: | Islamic insurance, profitability, Malaysia, dynamic GMM |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79441&r=dcm |
| By: | Skrobotov, Anton (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Turuntseva, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Testing of a unit root in the data is of great importance for the empirical analysis. Almost one or macroeconomic study is not without testing whether a particular stationary time series against the trend (trend stationary, TS) or It is stationary in first differences (difference stationary, DS). In the first If the number is stationary relative to the trend, the number of simulated necessary levels. Otherwise, you need to go to the first difference time series if it is modeled by this specific number separately,or proceed to the cointegration analysis of multiple time series, each which is non-stationary. The presence of cointegration allows us to give feasibility study of long-term and short-term dependency adjustments to long-term equilibrium. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021707&r=dcm |
| By: | Fosso Djoumessi, Yannik |
| Abstract: | This study examines the efficiency of smallholder vegetable farmers in the forest zone of the Southwest region of Cameroon. Data used was collected by means of a field survey within the framework of the Humidtropics program. This study aims to evaluate the technical efficiency levels of small-scale vegetable producers and to identify the sources of inefficiency. It therefore has two specific objectives: i) estimate the technical efficiency of smallholder vegetable farmers, (ii) identify the determinants of the technical efficiency of smallholder vegetable farmers. The efficiency scores for a sample of 100 producers are obtained using Data Envelopment Analysis and a Tobit model is used to identify the sources of inefficiency. The calculated technical efficiency scores range from 12% to 100%, with a mean technical efficiency index of 70% for the constant returns to scale (CRS) model. The technical efficiency scores for the variable returns to scale (VRS) model range from 23% to 100% with a mean score of 79%. Scale efficiency ranges from 40% to 100% with a mean of 87%. The mean technical efficiency scores indicate that there exist better ways of using resources which can push the production of the average producer right to the frontier. The findings show that farm size and access to credit influence efficiency significantly and positively. Age, household size, experience, manure, farm-related training and extension contact improve the efficiency of farmers. Meanwhile, education and membership of farmers’ association have no effect on the productive performance of vegetable farmers. Public and private stakeholders should therefore focus on these factors in order to reduce technical inefficiency |
| Keywords: | Data Envelopment Analysis, Forest-based System, Smallholder, Technical efficiency |
| JEL: | Q12 |
| Date: | 2015–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79371&r=dcm |
| By: | Naamneh, Rakan; Alboursh, Asem; Al-Amer, Ayman |
| Abstract: | This project covers certain types of rotor generator vibrational problem, including both conventionally-cooled (indirect copper cooling) windings and direct cooled copper windings as well as those with spindle and body mounted retaining rings. The options for rewinding, modifying, or upgrading are provided for each case type as encountered in the Jordan Petroleum Refinery. Generally; when dealing with generator rotors, problems like oversizing, misalignment, rotor imbalance, off-design operation, lubrication problems, shaft seals, cavitation, balancing system, and vibration are encountered. Methods of resolving vibration problem diagnosis were discussed using different techniques like vibration design analysis which will enhance root cause problems. We have proposed different maintenance best practice like rotor dynamic balance, appropriate operation, seals selection, and lubricant selection. At the end we have proposed a design solution appropriate for failure prevention using rotor balancing after rework or modifications. |
| Keywords: | conventionally cooled winding, lubrication, design failure |
| JEL: | O53 Y40 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79318&r=dcm |
| By: | HAYAKAWA Kazunobu; MATSUURA Toshiyuki |
| Abstract: | In this study, we empirically examine the effects of customers' foreign direct investment (FDI) on their domestic transaction ties and the performance of their suppliers. In particular, we examine the difference in such effects between the first- (direct) and second-tier (indirect) suppliers. To this end, we utilize a unique firm-level survey in Japan that contains information on inter-firm transaction networks matched with FDI data. Our findings can be summarized as follows. There is no evidence that customers' FDI is more likely to suspend their domestic transactions. Rather, direct suppliers' transaction ties with multinational enterprises (MNEs) are more persistent than those with other firms. Although such an effect becomes weak for transactions between direct and indirect suppliers, we did not find a negative effect. Furthermore, customers' FDI has a significantly positive impact on employment growth for both their direct and indirect suppliers. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17085&r=dcm |
| By: | Bazhanov, Andrei; Levin, Yuri; Nediak, Mikhail |
| Abstract: | We consider a decentralized supply chain (DSC) under resale price maintenance (RPM)selling a limited-lifetime product to forward-looking customers with heterogeneous valuations. When customers do not know the inventory level, double marginalization in DSC leads to a higher profit and lower aggregate welfare than in centralized supply chain (CSC). When customers know the inventory, DSC coincides with CSC. Thus, overestimation of customer awareness may lead to overcentralization of supply chains with profit loss comparable with the loss from strategic customers. The case with unknown inventory is extended to an arbitrary number of retailers with inventory-independent and inventory-dependent demand. In both cases, the manufacturer, by setting a higher wholesale price, mitigates the inventory-increasing effect of competition and reaches the same profit as with a single retailer. The high viability of RPM as a strategic-behavior-mitigating tool may serve as another explanation of why manufacturers may prefer DSC with RPM to a vertically integrated firm. |
| Keywords: | limited-lifetime product, strategic customers, limited information, aggregate welfare, oligopoly |
| JEL: | D9 L13 L42 |
| Date: | 2017–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79467&r=dcm |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Results from the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) confirm that mastery of the host country’s language is essential if immigrants are to integrate successfully into their new communities and into the host country’s labour market. Given these findings, host countries could design and implement policies to provide language training to immigrants as soon as feasible after they arrive. This is particularly important for immigrant children, who can then attend school with their native-born peers. |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduabb:6-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Stapran, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how Russia and other APEC economies implemented APEC Growth Strategy in 2010-2015. Moreover, it provides a list of recommendations to guide Russia’s implementation of APEC Strategy for Strengthening Quality Growth that followed APEC Growth Strategy in 2015, taking into account the key priorities of Russia’s economic and social development. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041720&r=dcm |
| By: | YIN Ting; ZHANG Junchao |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effect of education on intergenerational transfers from/to adult children. Using micro-data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we exploit exogenous variations in parents' schooling induced by China's Great Famine to take account of the endogeneity of education, and then estimate the effect of schooling on the probability of receiving/giving transfers from/to adult children. The instrumental variable estimates show that an additional year of schooling has a negative effect on the probability of receiving transfers, but a positive effect on the probability of giving transfers at old age. Our results have some policy implications on social security in aging societies. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17074&r=dcm |
| By: | Johanna Catherine Maclean; Michael F. Pesko; Steven C. Hill |
| Abstract: | In this study we explore the early effects of recent Medicaid expansions on prescriptions and Medicaid payments for evidence-based smoking cessation prescription medications: Zyban, Chantix, and Nicotrol. We estimate differences-in-differences models using data on the universe of prescription medications sold in retail and online pharmacies for which Medicaid was a third-party payer. Our findings suggest that expansions increased prescriptions for smoking cessation medications by 36% and total payments for these medications increased by 28%. We provide evidence these payments were financed by state Medicaid programs and not patients themselves. Overall our findings suggest that the recent Medicaid expansions allowed low-income smokers to access effective cessation medications. |
| JEL: | I1 I13 I18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23450&r=dcm |
| By: | Gabueva, Larisa A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pavlova, Nina F. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, in the context of rejection of non-rigid state regulation of budgetary and autonomous health institutions, large participation of big private foreign companies in the security functions of the industry (equipment, medicines and supplies, food and so forth.), coming to the market of network domestic private clinics, which "take away" a big part of work from the state programs for free medical insurance, the issue of establishing new competitive advantages for stable public and private clinics, which would be based on knowledge and information generated by the human resource. The article is devoted to the analysis of these tendencies in competition of health care companies. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021705&r=dcm |
| By: | Alejandro Pereyra; Gustavo Demarco; Flavio Buchieri |
| Abstract: | Se examinan los efectos sociales de las dos últimas grandes crisis o cambios estructurales en Argentina ocurridas, la primera, durante 1989/1990 y, la segunda, durante los años 2001/2002. Para ello se estudia la relación entre la volatilidad del PIB y la vulnerabilidad social medida a través del índice de pobreza. Se analiza los impactos que la inestabilidad agregada genera sobre la vulnerabilidad social en torno a las dos crisis estructurales antes mencionadas y profundizamos en lo que se conocen como “asimetrías del ciclo”. |
| Keywords: | asimetrías, volatilidad, pobreza, cointegración. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:wpaper:0517&r=dcm |
| By: | Masanari Asano; Irina Basieva; Andrei Khrennikov; Masanori Ohya; Yoshiharu Tanaka |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we introduce a new model of selection behavior under risk that describes an essential cognitive process for comparing values of objects and making a selection decision. This model is constructed by the quantum-like approach that employs the state representation specific to quantum theory, which has the mathematical framework beyond the classical probability theory. We show that our quantum approach can clearly explain the famous examples of anomalies for the expected utility theory, the Ellsberg paradox, the Machina paradox and the disparity between WTA and WTP. Further, we point out that our model mathematically specifies the characteristics of the probability weighting function and the value function, which are basic concepts in the prospect theory. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.08536&r=dcm |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polushkina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Semionova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work assesses the contribution of education to socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The information base for the study was official statistics. Assessment of the contribution of education was carried out for each level of the education system: secondary general education, primary professional, secondary professional and higher vocational education. The analysis of the contribution of education to the socioeconomic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation was carried out both for the Russian Federation as a whole and for the federal districts of the Russian Federation and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The results of the study are supplemented by an analysis of the contribution of higher education to the socioeconomic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation in the sample. Regions of Russia in the context of 55 enlarged groups of specialties. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031708&r=dcm |
| By: | Belyakov, Sergei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polushkina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The study has two main objectives: the development of models of additional vocational education, as an element of the system of continuous education, and analysis of the regulation of additional Vocational education. The study allowed to determine the main characteristics of Vocational education and develop its system of indicators. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041716&r=dcm |
| By: | Duarte, Rosa; Ferrando, Sandra; Molina, Jose Alberto |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the determinants of escaping poverty through education in Spain, with this being the country that, according to Eurostat (2010), is among the top European countries regarding the percentage of the population affected by poverty. Specifically, the paper studies the transmission of poverty over two generations by analyzing the factors that affect the probability of having completed the secondary level of education. To that end, we use the conceptual Quantity-Quality model of Becker-Lewis, empirically estimated by using the Survey of Living Conditions (2011) provided by the Spanish Statistical Institute. Our results confirm the intergenerational transmission of poverty in Spain, in such a way that the probability that the respondent has completed secondary education is determined, although not exclusively, by the family conditions of the respondents during their teenage years. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Education, Intergenerational Transmission, Spain. |
| JEL: | D12 I32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79454&r=dcm |
| By: | Howard Bodenhorn |
| Abstract: | Saving is essential to the health of economies because it provides the wherewithal for investment. In the late nineteenth century, saving was also essential to the health of urban working-class households. This study brings together information from surveys of household spending and saving, reports of savings banks and insurance companies, water and sewer authorities, and health commissioners to illuminate the connections between household savings and health improvements. Contemporary financial institutions positively influenced economic growth by allocating capital to highly productive employments, including public infrastructure. Specifically, investments in waterworks contributed to the long-run decline in typhoid infection, which improved worker health and productivity. |
| JEL: | I15 N31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23430&r=dcm |
| By: | Bogna Janik (WSB University in Poznan, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Banks play an important role connected with financing pro-ecological investments made by enterprises. They support pro-ecological activities of the entities applying for financing or offer saving/investment products relating to the environmental impact. In terms of their external pro-ecological activities there can be distinguished two groups of banks. The first group offers a wide selection of products and pro-ecological services as well as uses the tools of environmental risk management. The second group concentrates on offering selective products and services as well as is active in the area of pro-ecological marketing. The main objective of the study is to identify and assess some chosen aspects of ecological activities of the banks listed on Stock Exchanges in CEE countries and included in sustainable indices such as: RESPECT, CEERIUS and VONIX. The scope of this analysis encompasses selected dimensions illustrating banks’ activities in terms of environmental protection. The analysis of the investigated dilemma was based mainly on the desk research of digital and documentary sources. The results indicate relatively huge differences across environmental care in value-based banks compared to conventional banks, and small differences between value-based banks themselves. |
| Keywords: | value-based banking, social banking, environmental care, sustainable indices |
| JEL: | G21 Q01 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no40&r=dcm |
| By: | Daniel Cardona (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Antoni Rubí-Barceló (Universitat de les Illes Balears) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the welfare implications of requiring either unanimity or simple majority in negotiations to distribute a budget among agents who previously can invest to generate positive consumption externalities to others. The present paper studies this setting with simple-majority bargaining, complementing Cardona and Rubí-Barceló (2014), that consider the unanimity case. It is shown that reducing the majority requirement reduces the profitability of investments and, as a consequence, alleviates over-investment, which is predominant under unanimous bargaining. Nevertheless, simple majority reduces the aggregate surplus attained at the bargaining stage. Therefore, the relative performance of the bargaining rules is uncertain. We show how it evolves with respect to the size of consumption externalities. |
| Keywords: | Investments, multilateral bargaining, efficiency, externalities |
| JEL: | C78 D72 D62 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubi:deawps:85&r=dcm |
| By: | Kristof Gyod (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Consumption habits and the provision of services have undergone significant changes in the recent years. Platforms made way for new business models, which are often referred to as sharing economy or collaborative economy. Among the most valuable firms of the sharing economy is Airbnb, a platform for short-term accommodation rentals. Purpose of the article:The aim of the article is to analyse the characteristics of the Airbnb network in Warsaw, Poland. The paper investigates to what extent Airbnb may generate value from underused assets and whether it brings tourism todistricts previously less popular among visitors. Methodology/methods:The analysis is based on a unique dataset, which contains all Airbnb listings of Warsaw. The dataset has been constructed by the author using web-scraping technology. Descriptive statistics and kernel density estimation are implemented for the empirical analysis. Findings & Value added: The vast majority of the Airbnb network is focused on the short-term rental of entire homes and apartments in the city centre. Furthermore, the majority of listings belong to hosts, who offer more than one accommodation. The characteristics of the network suggest that the potential of Airbnb to generate value from underused assets is restricted: the primary activity of Airbnb decreases the number of properties on the long-term housing market. Comparing to traditional hotels, Airbnb is not significantly facilitating tourism in the outer districts of the city. The main contribution of the paper to the literature is the analysis of the entire population of Airbnb in a major city and the comparison with the traditional services sector. This is also the empirical analysis on the sharing economy and Airbnb in Poland. |
| Keywords: | sharing economy, two-sided markets, digital economy, tourism |
| JEL: | R12 D23 C81 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no33&r=dcm |
| By: | Angelos Dassios; You You Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study the joint law of Parisian time and hitting time of a drifted Brownian motion by using a three-state semi-Markov model, obtained through perturbation. We obtain a martingale, to which we can apply the optional sampling theorem and derive the double Laplace transform. This general result is applied to address problems in option pricing. We introduce a new option related to Parisian options, being triggered when the age of an excursion exceeds a certain time or/and a barrier is hit. We obtain an explicit expression for the Laplace transform of its fair price. |
| Keywords: | Parisian options; excursion time; three state semi-Markov model; Laplace transform |
| JEL: | G13 |
| Date: | 2016–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:64959&r=dcm |
| By: | Yosuke Jin (OECD); Aida Caldera Sánchez (OECD); Pilar Garcia Perea (OECD) |
| Abstract: | The Spanish economy is growing strongly, but there is a risk that many people are being left behind. Unemployment, especially among young people and the low-skilled, remains very high. About half of all the unemployed have been unemployed for over a year and one third for more than two years. A quarter of all those who are employed are on temporary jobs. Since the global economic crisis, poverty and inequality have increased. An immediate priority is to ensure adequate income support for those most in need. Getting more people into better jobs is crucial to raise living standards and to reduce poverty. In terms of structural policies, this requires continuing to improve activation policies, such as training and job placement, re-skilling and up-skilling the unemployed, preventing youth from leaving the education system under-qualified and better on-the-job-training. More can be done to foster the creation of better quality jobs by reducing barriers to hiring and addressing labour market duality. |
| Keywords: | education and skills,, income inequality, Job quality, labour market reform, poverty, social benefits |
| JEL: | E24 I20 I30 J30 J60 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1386-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Razak, Lutfi Abdul; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle – the mother of all puzzles – to uncover whether there exists a long-run relationship between domestic investment and domestic savings for the case of Malaysia. This is a long-standing empirical puzzle in macroeconomics which contradicts economic theory: for open economies, savings should be able to flow to where investment returns are most attractive, and hence there should be no correlation between investment and savings. One plausible reason put forth in the literature as an explanation for the puzzle is the reduction in trade frictions. As trade frictions are reduced, capital becomes more mobile, which in turn would mitigate the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Using an ARDL framework, we seek to investigate whether trade openness, as a proxy for reduced trade frictions, can help explain the long-run relationship between savings and investment. Although we discover mixed evidence with regards to the role of trade openness, we find that more importantly, the results tend to indicate the presence of possible structural break. Nevertheless, the results from our paper imply that policymakers can set the savings rate as an intermediate target to affect investment and real income. |
| Keywords: | Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, Malaysia, ARDL |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79407&r=dcm |
| By: | Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand (Banco de la República de Colombia); Luis F. Melo-Velandia (Banco de la República de Colombia); Oscar M. Valencia-Arana (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | We test current account sustainability based on the framework developed by Hakkio and Rush [1991] and Husted [1992] using a two-regime threshold vector error correction model. This methodology allows us to characterize short-run nonlinearities in the current account. We estimate the model for four Latin American economies: Chile, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. We find a long-run relationship between the current account components, which implies strong sustainability for Chile and Mexico and weak sustainability for Colombia and Brazil. For the first two countries, the predominant regime is associated with a current account surplus. In contrast, for Colombia and Brazil, the prevailing regime corresponds to a situation in which there is a long- run deficit. In general, the impulse response analysis shows that expenditure and income shocks have positive and significant responses in the predominant regime for both series. Classification JEL: C32, C52, F32 |
| Keywords: | Threshold vector error correction; current account sustainability; generalized impulse response function |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:987&r=dcm |
| By: | KASAHARA Hiroyuki; NISHIDA Mitsukuni; SUZUKI Michio |
| Abstract: | Aggregate productivity growth and the role of input reallocation have been hotly debated. Yet, it has received little attention as to how the measurement of reallocation relies on the commonly-made assumption that a production technology is uniform within an industry. To quantify the effects of unobserved heterogeneity in production technology, we estimate a random-coefficient Cobb-Douglas production function. We identify plant type from the distribution of the intermediate inputs to sales ratio using the first order condition without permanent distortions in intermediate input markets. The empirical analysis uses plant-level data from the Census of Manufacture. We find that accounting for unobserved heterogeneity lowers the volatility of technical efficiency and reallocation contributions. For knitted garments industry that features large dispersion in the intermediate input share, the average growth rate of the reallocation component over the 5-year period after the bubble burst in Japan is -0.5% with heterogeneity, while it is 0.4% without heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17083&r=dcm |
| By: | Slawomira Hajduk (Bialystok University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: An efficient and effectively functioning transport in the city is of great importance both for the people residing in its territory, as well as companies doing business there. However, apart from a positive impact, transport also carries many social costs including congestion, traffic accidentsand a negative influence on the natural environment. Consequently, urban transport is an increasingly important area of city management. Purpose of the article:The aim of this study is to analyze and to assess the transport technological effectivenessin selected Polish cities.The author received a ranking of cities and identified ways to improve the efficiency. Methodology:The test procedure used non-parametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis. Data for analysis were draw from the Local Data Bank of the Central Statistical Office defining expenses in the transport section as well as data on the condition and use of transport infrastructure. The calculations have been made using Frontier Analyst Application software. The performance results were determined using the BCC model. Findings& Value added:The main result is the author’s rankingof transport effectivenessin Polish cities. The analysis showed that urban transport characterized by a rather low technological effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | technological effectiveness, urban transport, city management. |
| JEL: | O18 R58 C10 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no35&r=dcm |
| By: | AUBIN-NURY de Malicorne, Dr. Christophe |
| Abstract: | Acknowledging that the growth forecast in France is nil or virtually non-existent and that it is also the case for the main European countries, EU governments will have to find tax revenues rapidly from their fellow citizens, which will exacerbate the tax burden, social inequalities and shortly, it will dramatically increase the risk of implosion of our societal organization. |
| Keywords: | Governance, Deficit, State, Europe, Crisis, Societal |
| JEL: | H3 |
| Date: | 2017–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79362&r=dcm |
| By: | Pleskachev, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ponomarev, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of the research study is assessment of the degree of import price rigidity with respect to exchange rate fluctuations and importing firm characteristics in Russian economy. Exchange rate pass-through in economy starts with the import prices. Empirical results show significant difference in import price rigidity depending on firms and goods characteristics. Using micro data on import to Russia from 2002 to 2015 allowed obtaining estimates that were not reported in the previous literature. This paper documents dependence of import price rigidity with respect to the exchange rate fluctuations form the degree of processing and firm characteristics. Import price rigidity is higher for manufactured products elaborately transformed, for goods, denominated in home currency, for goods with lower frequency of price changes and for the firms with higher market share. Empirical estimates based on micro data also allowed to document the dependence of import price rigidity from the economic sector and compare results with international literature. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031706&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Lewandowska (University of Information Technology and Management, 35–225 Rzeszow, ul. Sucharskiego 2, Poland); Mateusz Stopa (University of Information Technology and Management, 35–225 Rzeszow, ul. Sucharskiego 2, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Innovations are considered to be one of the most progressive determinants of socio-economic growth, also in the regional and local perspective (compare Petrariu, et al., 2013; Priede & Pereira 2013; Sternberg & Arndt, 2001). The high level of innovation has a positive impact on productivity at the firm level (business performance, see, e.g. Bhaskaran, 2006) and consequently also on the economic results at regional or national level (economic performance, see, e.g. DiPietro & Anoruo, 2006). The aim of this paper is to contribute to a greater understanding of the research on institutional support system for SMEs innovativeness in the Podkarpackie region. In analyzing this case, we raise the following two questions: (1) what are the types of innovation strategies of SMEs in Podkarpackie?; (2) what are the factors affecting innovation and potential barriers to further use of institutional support system aimed at the implementation of innovation in enterprises. The study was qualitative interviews (in-depth interviews - IDI) with key individuals in SME’s, R&D units, business environment institutions, regional and local authorities. Based on the opinion of entrepreneurs and others, evaluated programs and projects dedicated to innovation and identified barriers encountered by entrepreneurs limiting the implementation of innovation. Made in this way to assess the effectiveness of institutional support system. The results of our research show that institutional support system mitigate negative consequences of peripheral localization of the enterprises, where specific innovation strategy has no influence on SMEs assessment of innovation effectiveness. The innovation is too costly and SMEs are too weak in peripheral region, therefore there is great need for reasonable and flexible institutional support system. However, peripheral situation influences this institutional system itself, strengthening the mechanisms of self-cenzorship. |
| Keywords: | innovation; innovation strategies; SMEs; institutional support system |
| JEL: | L25 O12 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no60&r=dcm |
| By: | Francesco Caravelli; Marco Bardoscia; Fabio Caccioli |
| Abstract: | We propose a continuum model of percolation in two dimensions for overlapping disks with spin. In this model the existence of bonds is determined by the distance between the centers of the disks, and by the scalar product of the (randomly) directed spin with the direction of the vector connecting the centers of neighboring disks. The direction of a single spin is controlled by a "temperature", representing the amount of polarization of the spins in the direction of an external field. Our model is inspired by biological neuronal networks and aims to characterize their topological properties when axonal guidance plays a major role. We numerically study the phase diagram of the model observing the emergence of a giant strongly connected component, representing the portion of neurons that are causally connected. We provide strong evidence that the critical exponents depend on the temperature. |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2016–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:69805&r=dcm |
| By: | Marcin Zemigala (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Spoleczna odpowiedzialnosc (SR – social responsibility) jest koncepcja zarzadzania, ktora ksztaltuje sie podobnie do zarzadzania jakoscia czy zarzadzania srodowiskowego. Jak kazda koncepcja posiada portfel narzedzi, ktore mozna wdrazac w organizacjach majacych potrzebe posluzenia sie dana koncepcja w swoich dzialaniach. W chwili obecnej katalog narzedzi SR stale sie rozrasta i ulega kolejnym modyfikacjom. Purpose of the article: Celem artykulu jest analiza zastosowania znormalizowanych narzedzi SR. Najpierw przyblizono istote SR oraz scharakteryzowano zestaw znormalizowanych narzedzi. Stan ich zastosowania poddano analizom empirycznym. Methodology/methods: Postawiono dwa pytania badawcze: Jak wyglada zastosowanie standardow SR na swiecie wedlug aktualnych danych? Jak wyglada zastosowanie standardow SR w poszczegolnych krajach oraz w Polsce wedlug aktualnych danych?Do odpowiedzi na powyzsze pytania posluzono sie oficjalnym danymi pochodzacymi od organizacji formalnie odpowiedzialnych za analizowane standardy, uznano je za wiarygodne i kompletne. Z uwagi na to, ze dane pochodza z roznych zrodel analizy maja charakter pogladowy. W analizach uwzgledniono ISO 14001, SA 8000, AA 1000AS i G4, nie uwzgledniono ISO 26000 ze wzgledu na charakter normy (nie przeznaczona do certyfikacji) i w zwiazku z tym brak odnosnych danych. Findings: Najczesciej stosowanym standardem SR jest ISO 14001, kolejne standardy sa juz duzo rzadziej stosowane. Z jednej strony to pocieszajace, ze dobrowolna norma z zakresu ochrony srodowiska jest relatywnie czesto stosowana, z drugiej jednak dziwi fakt, ze narzedzia z innych zakresow tematycznych (warunki pracy, raportowanie zrownowazonego rozwoju i stosunki z interesariuszami) maja znikome zastosowanie. Jezeli chodzi o zastosowanie znormalizowanych narzedzi SR w roznych krajach to widac silna tendencje wsrod krajow spoza rozwinietych i stabilnych gospodarek do stosowanie analizowanych narzedzi, swiadczy to o ich wiekszej motywacji do poprawy konkurencyjnosci z wykorzystaniem takze koncepcji SR. Niestety w Polsce taka tendencja nie istnieje a analizowane standardy praktycznie nie sa stosowane, pewnym wyjatkiem jest ISO 14001. |
| Keywords: | spoleczna odpowiedzialnosc; narzedzia spolecznej odpowiedzialnosci; zastosowanie spolecznej odpowiedzialnosci |
| JEL: | M14 M16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no31&r=dcm |
| By: | Monika Paradowska (University of Opole, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Cycling is considered one of the most required ways of commuting, because it generates multiple benefits and low levels of external costs of transport. Many cities try to increase the share of cycling in the modal split by the way of various interventions. Effects of these efforts are different, depending on levels of rivalry and excludability of goods provided, what is influencing the attractiveness of cycling. Purpose of the article: The main aim of the paper is (i) to describe key elements of and some solutions for cycling systems in urban areas with focus on two characteristics of goods: rivalry and exclusion, and (ii) to examine, how different levels of rivalry and exclusion influence the attractiveness of cycling and contribute to required effects of cycling policy. Methodology/methods: The paper is based on the theory of private and public goods, as well as on some elements of the New Institutional Economics. The author uses secondary data and research results presented in scientific papers available in the Web of Science Database and Google Scholar, and other information available in online documents. Findings & Value added: A change in levels of rivalry and excludability can lead to an increased attractiveness of cycling. Further research on levels of rivalry and excludability in terms of the complexity of transport systems can contribute to a better understanding of transport behaviour, creating adequate solutions and predicting future effects. |
| Keywords: | rivalry, excludability, cycling, transport demands, urban transport systems |
| JEL: | Q01 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no87&r=dcm |
| By: | Sergej Vojtovic (University of Alexander Dubchek in Trencin, Slovakia); M?gdaléna Tupá (University of Alexander Dubchek in Trencin, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Austria and low unemployment rate, higher salaries, more vacancies in comparison to the Slovak Republic together with the system of state benefits and geographical proximity have caused increased interest of Slovaks in work in the given country. The open asylum politics of Austria and Germany is attractive to immigrants from the third-world countries. Based on the analyses of development of work force emigration from the Slovak Republic and immigration to Austria, the study identifies migration trends in both countries. Calculations of migration benefits from the arrival of work force from the Central and East European countries and calculations of losses and benefits from the migration from the third-world countries aim at explaining the development of economical, social and demographic parameters in the country. Mathematic calculations of losses and benefits from migrations for a country and society are also introduced. These are based on the statistical data available from Eurostat, WTO, Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Statistic Austria, Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs and Family, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and data acquired from empirical surveys published in scientific publications. The study uses general scientific methods of induction, deduction, scientific abstraction and comparison, analysis and synthesis of selected facts, phenomena and processes. To calculate the data acquired, statistical and mathematical methods and calculations were implemented. The result of the experiment is to create a model approach to the evaluation of economic benefits and losses from work force migration from the Central and East European countries and, at the same time, immigration from the third-world countries. It may be stated that work force migration from Central and East Europe is beneficial for Austria. The study also shows expenses on immigrants while asylum procedures are taking place followed by expenses on their integration into the labor market and society. |
| Keywords: | migration, migration management, labour migration, work force, target country, source country |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no134&r=dcm |
| By: | Levin, Mark (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Standard economic theory answers general questions about efficient distribution, balance and well-being. But to solve real problems, refinements and clarifications are needed. For example, the supply and demand model predicts where equilibrium will be established, but does not explain the market's behavior in the period prior to its establishment, that is, while the price does not balance the amount of demand and supply. In reality, in many situations, prices do not have absolute flexibility, and therefore, in short-term, they can not instantly change in such a way to balance supply and demand. This leads to a deficit of some goods and an excess of other goods. Such disequilibrium causes inefficiency of current market conditions, which, in turn, requires additional adjustments. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041709&r=dcm |
| By: | Adrien Auclert |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the role of redistribution in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to consumption. Three channels affect aggregate spending when winners and losers have different marginal propensities to consume: an earnings heterogeneity channel from unequal income gains, a Fisher channel from unexpected inflation, and an interest rate exposure channel from real interest rate changes. Sufficient statistics from Italian and U.S. data suggest that all three channels are likely to amplify the effects of monetary policy. A standard incomplete markets model can deliver the empirical magnitudes if assets have plausibly high durations but a counterfactual degree of inflation indexation. |
| JEL: | D31 D52 E21 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23451&r=dcm |
| By: | Michal Andrle; Miroslav Plasil |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces "system priors" into Bayesian analysis of econometric time series and provides a simple and illustrative application. Unlike priors on individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically meaningful priors about model properties that determine the overall behavior of the model. The generality of system priors is illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that its dynamics comes mostly from business-cycle frequencies. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian analysis, system priors, time series |
| JEL: | C11 C18 C22 C51 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2017/01&r=dcm |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the convergence of public transport and innovative mobility solutions, such as ride services, car- and bicycle-sharing, app-enabled on-demand micro-bus services, and platforms that connect app-using travelers and drivers. It examines the role of public authorities in ensuring this convergence supports commercial innovation as well as public policy objectives and identifies principles to guide partnerships between innovative mobility services and public transport operators. The work for this report was carried out in the context of a project initiated and funded by the International Transport Forum's Corporate Partnership Board (CPB). CPB projects are designed to enrich policy discussion with a business perspective. Led by the ITF, work is carried out in a collaborative fashion in working groups consisting of CPB member companies, external experts and ITF staff. |
| Date: | 2017–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:34-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This work paper is devoted to the study of monetary transmission mechanisms. The first section of the paper is devoted to the review of theoretical approaches to the analysis of monetary transmission and describes various traditional and credit channels, the information channel is also discussed in this section. The second section examines the experience of empirical research of monetary transmission on Russian data. The third section is devoted to the estimation of the transmission channels in Russia considering the transition of the Bank of Russia to the inflation targeting regime. VAR and FAVAR models are used for the estimation. The conclusions from the empirical part of the work paper are made in the fourth section, including the effectiveness of the interest rate channel, q-Tobin channel and the deposit channel. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041703&r=dcm |
| By: | Grant Jacobsen (University of Oregon) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence on the distributional effects of energy extraction by examining the recent U.S. energy boom. The boom increased local wage rates in almost every major occupational category. The increase occurred regardless of whether the occupation experienced a corresponding change in employment, suggesting a more competitive labor market that benefited local workers. Local housing values and rental prices both increased, thereby benefiting landowners. For renters, the increase in prices was completely offset by a contemporaneous increase in income. The results indicate that bans on drilling have negative monetary consequences for a large share of local residents. |
| Keywords: | NAFTA, oil, natural gas, hydraulic fracturing, fracking, resource extraction, labor market effects, resource curse, Dutch disease, wage rates, housing values, rental prices |
| JEL: | J23 Q33 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:17-271&r=dcm |
| By: | Mallick, Debdulal |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the empirical relationship between volatility and long-run growth, but the key contribution lies in decomposing growth volatility into its business-cycle and trend components. This volatility decomposition also accounts for enormous heterogeneity among countries in terms of their long-run growth trajectories. We identify a negative effect of trend volatility, which we refer to as long-run volatility, on growth, but no effect of business-cycle volatility. However, if long-run volatility is omitted, there would be a spurious (negative) effect of business-cycle volatility. Our results draw attention to a crucial question about different volatility measures and their implications in macroeconomic analyses. |
| Keywords: | Growth; Business cycles; Volatility; Volatility persistence; Frequency |
| JEL: | E32 F44 O11 O40 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79397&r=dcm |
| By: | François Bareille; Florence Bonnet-Beaugrand; Sabine Duvaleix-Treguer |
| Abstract: | Members’ commitment lessens when agricultural cooperatives grow larger. Their organization becomes more complex and their membership more heterogeneous, which threatens their sustainability and leads them to implement specific mechanisms for collective decisions. We explore how the alignment of objectives between a multi-purpose cooperative and its members influences member commitment. We estimate a multinomial probit model on a cross-section sample of 3,205 members from a large agricultural cooperative in France. We assess the determinants of member commitment through four factors: the offer of new agricultural practices, the availability of outlets and supplies to members, the farm distance to the cooperative headquarters and the farm governance. We show that the adoption of new agricultural practices has a small but significant effect. The availability of outlets and supplies has the strongest effect on the economic involvement of the farmers. Other determinants, such as farm governance or geographical distance to the cooperative headquarters, also reinforce member commitment. |
| Keywords: | agricultural cooperatives, member commitment, farm innovation, economic involvement |
| JEL: | Q13 C35 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rae:wpaper:17-02&r=dcm |
| By: | Gala, Paulo; Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de; Freitas, Elton |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to apply big-data and scale-free complex network techniques to the study of world trade, with a specific focus on the investigation of ECLA and structuralist ideas. A secondary objective is to illustrate the potentialities of the use of the new science of complex networks in economics, in what has been recently referred to as an econophysics research agenda. We work with a trade network of 101 countries and 762 products (SITC-4) which generated 1,756,224 trade links in 2013. The empirical results based on network analysis and computational methods reported here point in the direction of what ECLA economists used to argue; countries with higher income per capita concentrate in producing and exporting manufactured and complex goods at the center of the trade network; countries with lower income per capita specialize in producing and exporting non-complex commodities at the network’s periphery. |
| Date: | 2017–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:449&r=dcm |
| By: | Joanna Luczak (University of Social Sciences in Lodz) |
| Abstract: | Human capital is the driving force of an organization that has a significant impact on its development and effective operation. The success of the organization depends to a great extent on its social potential. Successful recruitment ensures that the best employees ensure high quality work, which respectively translates into organizational development and competitiveness (Oleksyn 2010, pp. 34-36). The development of the organization is based on knowledge acquisition, skills and raising qualifications by its members. The aim of the paper is to analyze the conditionings related to the management of the police organizational units, which influence the appropriate recruitment of police officers for particular positions. The publication also attempts to investigate the importance of appropriate recruitment for the effectiveness of actions taken by police officers. The article presents issues exemplifying the analysis of human resource management in the field of human resource policy playing an important role in Police. The empirical part of the article was based on an analysis of the subject literature and police internal materials, but also on the basis of participant observation and expert interview. The paper presents an analysis of the recruitment process of police officers for vacant posts in Police units of the Lodz Region, introduced by the Human Resource Policy Concept. Although the Police was established to protect citizens’ security and public order, its development and effective functioning are needed to further serve society. In order to do this, it is indispensable to recruit and employ proper and competent workers. Therefore, the recruitment and selection process is so significant. |
| Keywords: | public management; human resource management; police, recruitment; selection |
| JEL: | D73 D78 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no65&r=dcm |
| By: | Wasniewski, Krzysztof |
| Abstract: | This article explores the issue of observable instability in financial markets interpreted as a long-term process of adaptation to demand for money, which, in turn, is based on the expected depreciation of fixed assets. Exploration is based on verifying empirically the hypothesis that the velocity of money is significantly, negatively correlated with the pace of technological change. The purpose of exploration is to assess the well-founded of policies, which use financial and monetary tools, rather than the straightforwardly fiscal ones, to stimulate technological change. Empirical research suggests that aggregate depreciation of fixed assets is a significant factor inducing slower a circulation of money. |
| Keywords: | money, financial markets, technological change |
| JEL: | E1 E3 |
| Date: | 2017–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79426&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomas Meluzín (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); Marek Zinecker (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); doubravsky@fbm.vutbr.cz (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); Mirko Dohnal (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | n epidemiology, qualitative models have been developed and applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases since the 1920s. A version of these models is based on the rumour propagation. The main idea behind these models is that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information are analogous phenomena. Recently, this idea has been used in several areas to analyse how a rumour affects the financial industry. The success of going public depends on many aspects including the predictability and visibility of the initial public offering candidate, enormous growth potential and no signals of a failure. However, the wide public of investors might be reached by rumours affecting significantly the success of initial public offerings. This paper examines the impact of rumours on success or failure of initial public offerings. Rumours might significantly affect the decision-making of uninformed investors while considering investments in newly issued shares and thus are an important phenomenon within going public procedures. The ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) model is applied to study the impact of rumours on initial public offering success or failure. We assume that the information asymmetry is one of the most important reasons for spreading rumours. A case study experiment is conducted in order to validate the model. Our analysis of spreading rumours suggests that if there is a qualitative model consisting of a set of scenarios and a transitional graph, the decision makers may predict the development of ignorants (I), spreaders (S) and stiflers (R) in time. In such a case, no variant is overlooked, i.e. the model covers all possible changes of the situation in time. Supposing that rumours are under control of the issuing company, i.e. if detected in a timely manner and effective actions are introduced by decision makers, any reputational damages and thus initial public offering failure can be averted. |
| Keywords: | initial public offering; IPO; rumours; qualitative models; rumour spreading approach |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G14 G23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no79&r=dcm |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the main results, consequences and risks of the reforms carried out in recent years in Russian higher education. In particular, the consequences and risks of the introduction of the USE for the development of regional HEIs, the problems associated with monitoring the effectiveness of HEIs and the transition to higher education for normative per capita financing are analyzed. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041732&r=dcm |
| By: | Gabueva, Larisa (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Competition in the field of health care should not only be Manufacturers of medical services of all forms of ownership, but, above all Patients making conscious choice of institutions for treatment and Prevention of health problems. State control can create all conditions for a safe and Choice by a citizen of a doctor, institution, regardless of which The program is serviced by a person: compulsory insurance, VMI (Voluntary medical insurance) or for his own by direct payment of services in a medical organization under a contract. This process, in our opinion, will contribute to the growth of the "Index Openness "of medical organizations, a correct evaluation of the results of their Activities. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021715&r=dcm |
| By: | J. Paul Dunne (School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Nicholas Masiyandima (School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether bilateral foreign direct investment between a technology leader country and follower countries has technology and productivity externalities that speed up income convergence among the countries. The study is based the SADC region, in which South Africa is identified as both the technology leader and a major source of FDI for the other 14 developing countries in the region. Using countries’ per capita incomes time series over a period spanning from 1980 to 2011, the results of the study show that bilateral FDI between South Africa and countries in the region fosters income convergence in the region. Countries that have higher FDI stocks from South Africa exhibit higher rates of convergence towards both the regional average per capita income and South Africa’s per capita income, than those that host less FDI stocks. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctn:dpaper:2017-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Cantillo, Miguel |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing framework that allows for investor aggregation, and assumes a log-normally distributed aggregate endowment growth. This framework allows me to derive the equilibrium risk free rate, the expected market return, and expected returns for individual securities. To test how reasonable the results are, I use data of several developed economies from Campbell (2003, 2017) to find a median value of relative risk aversion of 1.57, and a time preference rate of 4.58%. The framework allows me to estimate a version of the CAPM and a multi-period pricing model. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing, General Equilibrium, CAPM, Equity Premium Puzzle |
| JEL: | D53 E21 G12 G13 G32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79357&r=dcm |
| By: | Hasson, Ashwaq; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper undertakes to investigate the interplay between economic growth, energy consumption, electricity consumption, carbon emission and trade by employing recent South African trade and energy data during the period from 1971 to 2013. South Africa is used as a case study given its status as perhaps the most developed country in the African continent with a very high energy consumption as well as its unique position in its current history where it relies on the somewhat antiquated coal industry to provide most of its energy as well as being one of its main imports. The effect of trade openness on environmental conditions has spawned a great deal of controversy in the current energy economics literature. Although research on the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth are quite prevalent, no study to our knowledge specifically addresses the role that South Africa’s trade plays in this context. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration has been used to test the long run relationship among the variables, while short run dynamics has been investigated by applying error correction method (ECM). The main finding of interest in this paper is that a positive relationship exists between energy consumption and economic growth. However, it seems the results suggest that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that trade openness and electricity are leading variables, while the rest are lagging. Furthermore, our results demonstrate trade reduces overall pollutions caused by carbon emission, thus it improves environmental quality by contracting the growth of energy pollutants. Our empirical results are consistent with the existence of environmental Kuznets curve. It is, thus, imperative for policymakers to take better care of these two exogenous variables that will have a profound effect on the country’s economy as a whole. The policymakers should make decision on GDP based on trade openness because changes in trade openness will have impact on GDP, as trade is a leading variable. |
| Keywords: | GDP, Energy consumption, Trade openness, EKC, Carbon Emission, South Africa |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79424&r=dcm |
| By: | Susan Zief; Theresa Schulte |
| Abstract: | This issue brief documents the implementation infrastructure that four states—California, Maine, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina—developed to support implementation of their Personal Responsibility Education Program (PREP)-funded evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention programs. |
| Keywords: | teen, pregnancy, prevention, PREP, evidence-based programs |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:dbd46b3b41e944d79515c629b644f1a3&r=dcm |
| By: | Maryam Farboodi; Laura Veldkamp |
| Abstract: | In most sectors, technological progress boosts efficiency. But financial technology and the associated data-intensive trading strategies have been blamed for market inefficiency. A key cause for concern is that better technology might induce traders to extract other's information from order flow data mining, rather than produce information themselves. Defenders of these new trading strategies argue that they provide liquidity by identifying uninformed orders and taking the other side of their trades. We adopt the lens of long-run growth to understand how improvements in financial technology shape information choices, trading strategies and market efficiency, as measured by price informativeness and market liquidity. We find that unbiased technological change can explain a market-wide shift in data collection and trading strategies. But our findings also cast doubt on common wisdom. First, although extracting information from order flow does crowd out production of fundamental information, this does not compromise price informativeness. Second, although taking the opposite side of uninformed trades is typically called "providing liquidity," the rise of such trading strategies does not necessarily improve liquidity in the market as a whole. |
| JEL: | E2 G14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23457&r=dcm |
| By: | Izryadnova, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The current spatial landscape of socio-economic development is highly heterogeneous and organically includes the characteristics associated with the development of interregional cooperation, competition, with the involvement of regions in the world economy. The main reason for the economic inequality of the regions is the concentration of economic activity in the territories which have competitive advantages and are determined by such factors as availability of natural resources, favorable geographical location, agglomeration effect, the level of human capital, institutional environment. Comparative analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators allows us to identify the general and specific features of the development of the productive, infrastructural and social potential of individual territories and formulate principles for increasing the efficiency of their activities. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041713&r=dcm |
| By: | Maleva, Tatyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Avraamova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Burdyak, Alexandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Grishina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tsatsura, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Florinskaya, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of a comprehensive assessment of the current stage of social development, based on monitoring of the socio-economic status and wealth of the population in Russia in the period from January 2015 to May 2016 The changes in the key macroeconomic indicators are investigated, the analysis of changes in prices and retail trade is made, the situation in the labor market and migration is considered. Using the tools of statistical analysis and sociological monitoring, the popular representations of the the scale of the crisis and the extent of its impact on the social well-being, as well as a choice of adaptive behavior strategies were investigated. Special attention is paid to changes in the socio-economic situation in the regions, including regional systems of social protection. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021712&r=dcm |
| By: | Huang, Yanghua (Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Salike, Nimesh (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Yin, Zhifeng (School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics); Zeng, Douglas Zhihua (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | In contrast to previous papers, where in these two important aspects of innovation were delved separately, this paper analyses the effects in unison by using the most comprehensive data on Chinese enterprises- World Bank China Enterprise Survey (2012). Our dependent variables are innovation performance measured in various dimensions: the probabilities of R&D expenditure, staff training, product innovation, process innovation and management innovation. Our key variables of interest are ownership based on largest share (SOE, private and foreign) and firm size based on the number of employees. The analysis is based on panel data approach with different dimensions added (city, industry fixed) and the interaction of ownership and size variables. Major findings suggest that SOEs and domestic private enterprises are much alike in innovation participation, but different in innovation diversification that leads to ownership specific innovative advantage. Foreign enterprises are innovative in most of the innovation measurements. Size if positively correlated to innovation. We also find that as the size of enterprise increases, ownership specific innovative advantage is subject to changeable. That implies ownership and size should be examined jointly rather than separately. The result also shows the effects of ownership and size on innovations are uneven geographically and industrially. |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-06&r=dcm |
| By: | Libman, Alexander; Vinokurov, Evgeny |
| Abstract: | The report presents the results of the EDB Centre for Integration Studies’ ongoing project “Regional Integration in the World.” One of the aims of this project is comprehensive analysis of regional integration organizations in the world and later application of the findings in facilitating the processes of Eurasian integration. The report Regional Organizations: Typology and Development Paths provides the key conclusions and recommendations which are based on a detailed review of sixty organizations. |
| Keywords: | regional organizations, regional integration projects, economic development, goals of regional organizations, typology of regional organizations |
| JEL: | F15 F53 F63 |
| Date: | 2016–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79383&r=dcm |
| By: | Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. |
| Abstract: | We assess whether "undue optimism" (Pigou) contributes to business cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are perceived changes in productivity which do not actually materialize. We develop a new strategy to identify optimism shocks in a VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a negative nowcast error, but simultaneously a positive short-run output response. |
| Keywords: | undue optimism,optimism shocks,noise shocks,animal spirits,business cycles,nowcast errors,VAR |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:112017&r=dcm |
| By: | Papageorgiou, Chris; Perez-Sebastian, Fidel; Spatafora, Nikola |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the contribution of product quality upgrading in the process of export diversification. To do this, the paper builds a multisector model following Eaton and Kortum (2002) in which product quality is incorporated as a key feature. The model is then calibrated to generate predictions about the degree of export diversification in a number of East Asian countries. It is shown that quality upgrading is a key factor to understand the changes in the degree of export diversification in the majority of countries in our sample. |
| Keywords: | export diversification, product quality, international trade, structural transformation. |
| JEL: | F10 O14 O40 |
| Date: | 2016–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79400&r=dcm |
| By: | Agnieszka Rzepka (Lublin University of Technology); Andrzej J. Olak (The BronislawMarkiewicz State Higher School of Technology and Economics in Jaroslaw, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Each organization faces the challenge of operating in an environment that is unpredictable and turbulent. Emergence of business era caused that change had become a key feature that determines the economic environment of an enterprise. Market environment forces companies to seek strategic orientation that would allow them to use market opportunities and come to grips with growing customer demands. These goals can only be achieved by an organization that bears the hallmarks of agility. The purpose of this article is to analyze relationships between obtaining an ability to be innovative and agility attributes of an organization. The problem was analyzed on the basis of empirical research of an international character. The article points out that adopting by a company agility attributes translates into a better competitive position and a higher level of innovation. Innovation in an enterprise constitute an impulse to take new challenges, which perfectly fits into the paradigm of the organization’s agility. In turn, through innovation, companies become agile. The presented research confirms that there is a connection between having agility attributes by a company and obtaining by it a high level of innovation. Many authors also specify important role of IT system in introducing product innovations and innovation processes |
| Keywords: | innovation, agile, SME |
| JEL: | O30 M21 P42 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no104&r=dcm |
| By: | Alexeev, Michael (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mamedov, Arseny (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Fomina, Evgenia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Deryugin, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper considers methodological approaches to assessing the impact of interbudgetary regulation instruments on the economic development of regions, the impact of the main characteristics of interbudgetary relations at the national level and the regional level on the indicators of the economic development of regions. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031717&r=dcm |
| By: | Barinova, Vera (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lanshina, Tatiyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Recently, in connection with the beginning of the development of renewable energy sources in Russia, and also in connection with the emergence of new technological and economic data on renewable energy, a need to update the available estimates of the technical and economic potential of renewable energy sources arises. In this paper, the potential of solar and wind energy - currently the most developed renewable energy sectors - has been selected for assessment. This work is aimed at summarizing the methodological approaches to calculating the gross, technical and economic potential of solar and wind energy and conducting relevant assessments. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041714&r=dcm |
| By: | Sener Salci (Department of Economics, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.) |
| Abstract: | The analytical challenges in evaluating the impacts of transmission line investments have vexed practitioners and electricity market regulators. The purpose of this study is to provide a guideline for improving the accuracy and predictability of the impacts of electricity rehabilitation projects. The subject is too broad to address completely here. The proposed guideline is suitable for evaluations of such project implemented in a broken electricity network. In such case, the demand for electricity is deterred, the supply of the electricity is unreliable, and the system is far away from its least-cost optimum production/consumption level. The guideline does not rebut the catalog of existing evaluation models or approaches. The guideline utilizes them for a reasonable ex-ante assessment to identify “good” projects that satisfy the economic and public objectives of the economy. An integrated cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework is recommended to appraise such projects along with allocating the impacts to stakeholders in a manner that is commensurate with the net benefits they receive. Such an integrated analysis is much more than a set of procedures for estimating the expected net present values or rates of return of the project. |
| Keywords: | Electricity, Transmission Line, Rehabilitation Investment, Reliability, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Haiti |
| JEL: | D61 H43 L94 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:306&r=dcm |
| By: | Piyanuch Chaipornkaew (Dhurakij Pundit University, Thailand); Takorn Prexawanprasut (Dhurakij Pundit University, Thailand); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; University of Sydney Business School, Australia; Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands;Complutense University of Madrid, Spain; Yokohama National University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Email is one of the most powerful tools for communication. Many businesses use email as the main channel for communication, so it is possible that substantial data are included in email content. In order to help businesses grow faster, a workflow management system may be required. The data gathered from email content might be a robust source for a workflow management system. This research proposes an email extraction system to extract data from any incoming emails into suitable database fields. The database, which is created by the program, has been planned for the implementation of a workflow management system. The research is presented in three phases: (1) define suitable criteria to extract data; (2) implement a program to extract data, and store them in a database; and (3) implement a program for validating data in a database. Four criteria are applied for an email extraction system. The first criterion is to select contact information at the end of the email content; the second criterion is to select specified keywords, such as tel, email, and mobile; the third criterion is to select unique names, which start with a capital letter, such as the names of people, places, and corporates; the fourth criterion is to select special texts, such as Co. Ltd, .com, and www. The empirical results suggest that when all four criteria are considered, the accuracy of a program and percentage of blank fields are at an acceptable level compared with the results from other criteria. When four criteria are applied to extract 7,340 emails in English, the accuracy of this experiment is approximately 68.66%, while the percentage of blank fields in a database is approximately 68.05. The database created by the experiment can be applied in a workflow management system. |
| Keywords: | Business operations; startup business; import/export industry; email; business data; workflow management system; business transactions; migrating; email extraction system |
| JEL: | J24 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170048&r=dcm |
| By: | Jurgita Bruneckiene (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania); Jolita Sinkiene (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania); Egle Gaule (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania); Ineta Zykiene (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | Economic vitality of community is one of the main factors and conditions for successful urban development. The article present the theoretical and empirical analysis of the concept of economic vitality of urban community in the country of small economy. The objective of the paper is to identify the challenges and factors of improving the economic vitality of community in cities of a country with a small economy and to develop the strategic recommendations and measures for strengthening the economic vitality of the community. Methods used: literature studies, document analysis, statistical data analysis, expert interview, survey, case analysis, Space Syntax analysis. The research showed that the communities in the country of small economy are still not entrepreneur and economically vital; there’s a lack of cooperation cultural and experience among of communities and businesses; there are favorable conditions to promote community (economic) vitality. Strategies to encourage and facilitate business and community cooperation at the local government level are necessary. Communities and companies are ready to cooperate together, but the cooperation based on shared value is not grown up yet. The article concludes with recommendations for promotion the vitality of communities and cooperation with business. |
| Keywords: | economic vitality, community, cities, urban economic development |
| JEL: | R11 P32 P35 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no113&r=dcm |
| By: | Roberto Marfè |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits information from the variance-ratios of macroeconomic variables to infer about the short and long-run components of dividend risk and ination risk. While labor rigidity shifts dividend risk towards the short horizon, it also reveals {by means of labor-share variation{ the component of ination risk which is correlated with fundamentals. A simple general equilibrium model with labor rigidity can explain how ination interacts with the real growth and the labor-share, as well as many patterns of the term-structures of real and nominal bond yields. The model is robust to many properties of equity returns. |
| Keywords: | labor rigidity, ination, term-structure, interest rates, equilibrium asset pricing |
| JEL: | D51 E21 G12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:461&r=dcm |
| By: | Kateryna Kononova; Anton Dek |
| Abstract: | The paper proposes a method of financial time series forecasting taking into account the semantics of news. For the semantic analysis of financial news the sampling of negative and positive words in economic sense was formed based on Loughran McDonald Master Dictionary. The sampling included the words with high frequency of occurrence in the news of financial markets. For single-root words it has been left only common part that allows covering few words for one request. Neural networks were chosen for modeling and forecasting. To automate the process of extracting information from the economic news a script was developed in the MATLAB Simulink programming environment, which is based on the generated sampling of positive and negative words. Experimental studies with different architectures of neural networks showed a high adequacy of constructed models and confirmed the feasibility of using information from news feeds to predict the stock prices. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.08545&r=dcm |
| By: | Ronchi, Maddalena; di Mauro, Filippo |
| Abstract: | The paper aims at investigating to what extent wage negotiation set-ups have shaped up firms’ response to the Great Recession, taking a firm-level cross-country perspective. We contribute to the literature by building a new micro-distributed database which merges data related to wage bargaining institutions (Wage Dynamic Network, WDN) with data on firm productivity and other relevant firm characteristics (CompNet). We use the database to study how firms reacted to the Great Recession in terms of variation in profits, wages, and employment. The paper shows that, in line with the theoretical predictions, centralized bargaining systems – as opposed to decentralized/firm level based ones – were accompanied by stronger downward wage rigidity, as well as cuts in employment and profits. |
| Keywords: | productivity,wage bargaining,firm level analysis,global financial crisis |
| JEL: | D22 D61 J30 J50 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhcom:12017&r=dcm |
| By: | Michael A. Clemens; Jennifer Hunt |
| Abstract: | An influential strand of research has tested for the effects of immigration on natives’ wages and employment using exogenous refugee supply shocks as natural experiments. Several studies have reached conflicting conclusions about the effects of noted refugee waves such as the Mariel Boatlift in Miami and post-Soviet refugees to Israel. We show that conflicting findings on the effects of the Mariel Boatlift can be explained by a sudden change in the race composition of the Current Population Survey extracts in 1980, specific to Miami but unrelated to the Boatlift. We also show that conflicting findings on the labor-market effects of other important refugee waves can be produced by spurious correlation between the instrument and the endogenous variable introduced by applying a common divisor to both. As a whole, the evidence from refugee waves reinforces the existing consensus that the impact of immigration on average native-born workers is small, and fails to substantiate claims of large detrimental impacts on workers with less than high school. |
| JEL: | C36 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23433&r=dcm |
| By: | Vandenberghe, Vincent |
| Abstract: | Imagine an impoverished region that becomes eligible for a generous transfer programme (the treatment). Imagine difference-in-differences analysis (DiD)-a before-and-after comparison of the income-level handicap-shows that the handicap has risen. Most observers would conclude to the policy's inefficiency. The point made in this paper is that second thoughts are needed, because DiD rests heavily on the validity of a key assumption: parallel paths in the absence of treatment. What is more, when several pre-treatment periods are available in the data, it can easily be assessed and, if necessary, abandoned in favour of more relevant ones. |
| Keywords: | treatment-effect analysis,difference-in-differences models,EU convergence policy |
| JEL: | C21 R11 R15 O52 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201723&r=dcm |
| By: | Toshiaki Iizuka; Katsuhiko Nishiyama; Brian Chen; Karen Eggleston |
| Abstract: | Using unique individual-level panel data, we investigate whether preventive medical care triggered by health checkups is worth the cost. We exploit the fact that biomarkers just below and above a threshold may be viewed as random. We find that people respond to health signals and increase physician visits. However, we find no evidence that additional care is cost effective. For the “borderline type” (“pre-diabetes”) threshold for diabetes, medical care utilization increases but neither physical measures nor predicted risks of mortality or serious complications improve. For efficient use of medical resources, cost effectiveness of preventive care must be carefully examined. |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23413&r=dcm |
| By: | Benito Arruñada |
| Abstract: | Inspired by comments made by Allen (2017), Lueck (2017), Ménard (2017) and Smith (2017), this response clarifies and deepens the analysis in Arruñada (2017a). Its main argument is that to deal with the complexity of property we must abstract secondary elements, such as the physical dimensions of some types of assets, and focus on the interaction between transactions. This sequential-exchange framework captures the main problem of property in the current environment of impersonal markets. It also provides criteria to compare private and public ordering, as well as to organize public solutions that enable new forms of private ordering. The analysis applies the lessons in Coase (1960) to property by not only comparing realities but also maintaining his separate treatment of the definition of property rights and transaction costs. However, it replaces his contractual, single-exchange, framework for one in which contracts interact, causing exchange externalities. |
| Keywords: | property rights, externalities, enforcement, transaction costs, public ordering, private ordering, impersonal exchange. |
| JEL: | D23 K11 K12 G38 H41 O17 P48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1570&r=dcm |
| By: | Mashfiqur R. Khan; Matthew S. Rutledge; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher |
| Abstract: | Social Security provides higher replacement rates to disability insurance beneficiaries than retired beneficiaries. This fact reflects two factors: 1) Disability Insurance (SSDI) beneficiaries have lower career earnings, and Social Security benefits are progressive; and 2) SSDI benefits are not reduced for claiming early. This project uses the 1992-2010 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked to Social Security Administration earnings records to decompose the differences between the Social Security replacement rates for retired worker and SSDI beneficiaries into these two factors. The project also examines how the total replacement rate – which accounts for other sources of income in addition to Social Security – differs between retirees and SSDI beneficiaries to capture the difference in overall retirement security between the two groups. The results indicate that about half of the 10-percentage-point advantage in Social Security replacement rates for SSDI beneficiaries is due to the actuarial adjustment applied to retirement benefits, implying that career earnings are not that different between retired workers and SSDI beneficiaries. But total replacement rates are substantially lower for SSDI beneficiaries, which indicates that, despite Social Security’s vital role in providing a reliable income source, SSDI beneficiaries have much lower post-career well-being than retired workers. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2017-6&r=dcm |
| By: | Jaroslaw Czerski (Instytut Analiz Monitor Rynku Nieruchomosci); Michal Gluszak (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie); Robert Zygmunt (Uniwersytet Rolniczy im. Hugona Kollataja w Krakowie) |
| Abstract: | Research background: There are several methods to construct a price index for infrequently traded real estate assets (mainly residential, but also office and land). The main concern to construct a valid and unbiased price index is to address the problem of heterogeneity of real estate, or put differently to control for both observable and unobservable quality attributes. Most frequently used is probably hedonic regression methodology (classic, but recently also spatial and quantile regression). An alternative approach to control for unobservable differences in assets’ quality is provided by repeat sales methodology, where price changes are tracked based on differences in prices of given asset sold twice (or multiple times) within the study period. The later approach is applied in famous S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller house price indices. Purpose of the article: The goal of the paper is to assess the applicability of repeat sales methodology for a major housing market in Poland. Previous studies used hedonic methodology or mix adjustment techniques and applied for major metropolitan areas. Most known example is a set of quarterly house price indices constructed by NBP – especially for primary and secondary market. The repeat sales methodology has not been adopted with significant success to date – mainly because of concern regarding relative infrequency of transactions on housing market in most metropolitan areas (thus potentially small sample of repeated sales). Methodology/methods: The study uses data on repeat sales of residential transactions in Krakow from 2003 to 2015. We apply different specifications of repeat sales index construction and compare respective values to hedonic price index for Krakow estimated by NBP. Findings: Findings suggest that repeat sales house sales indices can be used to track price dynamics for major metropolitan areas in Poland. The study suggests problems that need to be addresses in order to get unbiased results – mainly data collection mechanism and estimation procedure. |
| Keywords: | repeat sales index, Poland, housing market, house price, real estate |
| JEL: | C18 C43 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no29&r=dcm |
| By: | Tanin, Tauhidul Islam; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Despite a drop of 0.2 points in 2015 in the Index of Economic Freedom, Bangladesh is awarded an upgraded economic status by the World Bank due to a consistent and boosted economic growth. However, there is a debate as to whether Economic Freedom leads or lags economic growth. Using ARDL approach and taking Bangladesh as a case study, this paper investigates whether economic freedom leads or lags economic growth in Bangladesh during the period 1995 - 2015. This study chooses Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom as it is widely accepted. The results tend to indicate that Economic Freedom does clearly lead and enhance economic growth in the context of Bangladesh during the period under review. |
| Keywords: | Economic Freedom, Economic Liberalization, Economic Growth, Bangladesh, ARDL |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79446&r=dcm |
| By: | Jung, Verena (QE / Operations research); Peeters - Rutten, Marianne (QE / Operations research); Vredeveld, Tjark (QE / Operations research) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework to better evaluate potential supply chain collaborations (SCCs). Design/methodology/approach – Prior research is used to develop a conceptual framework of all relevant factors, both drivers and resistors, which is, next, empirically tested in the Dutch fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry. Findings –The study provides a complete overview of all potential factors that should be evaluated before starting SSCs, categorized in “benefits”, “forces”, “enablers/barriers” and “risks”. Research limitations/implications – The sample of the study only consists of parties from one Dutch industry. Further research in other geographical areas and/or industries may result in stronger support. Furthermore, the importance of each driver and resistor has not been quantified for the specific party and collaboration. Quantifying the factors for each party might be beneficial and should also be considered in further research. Practical implications – The study provides a checklist containing all potential factors for all parties involved. Originality/value –This paper enriches the supply chain management (SCM) literature with an extensive specification of all potential drivers and resistors for starting SCCs structured in a framework. |
| Keywords: | Operations research and management science |
| Date: | 2017–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2017014&r=dcm |
| By: | Charles F. Manski |
| Abstract: | Economists commonly suppose that persons have probabilistic expectations for uncertain events, yet empirical research measuring expectations was long rare. The inhibition against collection of expectations data has gradually lessened, generating a substantial body of recent evidence on the expectations of broad populations. This paper first summarizes the history leading to development of the modern literature and overviews its main concerns. I then describe research on three subjects that should be of direct concern to macroeconomists: expectations of equity returns, inflation expectations, and professional macroeconomic forecasters. I also describe work that questions the assumption that persons have well-defined probabilistic expectations and communicate them accurately in surveys. Finally, I consider the evolution of thinking about expectations formation in macroeconomic policy analysis. I favorably observe the increasing willingness of theorists to study alternatives to rational expectations assumptions, but I express concern that models of expectations formation will proliferate in the absence of empirical research to discipline thinking. To make progress, I urge measurement and analysis of the revisions to expectations that agents make following occurrence of unanticipated shocks. |
| JEL: | D84 E03 E66 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23418&r=dcm |
| By: | Camila Figueroa; Michael Pedersen |
| Abstract: | Monetary authorities have to plan how many units of coins and bank notes they need to buy / produce to meet the needs of the economy. With data from the Central Bank of Chile, the process of supplying coins and banknotes to the banking sector is described. This is followed by exercises aiming at finding useful models for forecasting cash demand for the horizons up to three years, which are the relevant ones for planning purchases and delivery of individual banknotes in Chile. With respect to the aggregate circulating stock of cash, time series models seem to perform better for the one–year–ahead horizon, while models based on fundamental variables are better for two and three years. Time series models for each denomination seem to be the best forecasting option to guide the purchases of notes and coins. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:799&r=dcm |
| By: | Korotaev, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shulgin, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zinkina, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes six existing methodologies for assessing socio-political risks (the Index of Political Instability, the model Koplin's country political risks - O'Leary; Index of Lager's peace and conflict instability; Global Peace Index; The George Mason University Instability Index; Index of failed and unstable states). A theoretical model of social instability is analyzed, a methodology of Network analysis is introduced, and a forecast of country risks for the most unstable Countries is provided. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031715&r=dcm |
| By: | Barinova, Vera (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zemtsov, Stepan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Semenova, Roza (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the main approaches to the construction of ratings of innovative development are analyzed, the experience of foreign ranking of countries and regions is considered. The analysis of Russian ratings is carried out and their applicability is estimated. Conclusions are drawn based on the results of a comparative analysis of Russian and foreign rankings. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031720&r=dcm |
| By: | Daniel Andrei; Bruce I. Carlin |
| Abstract: | Creative destruction not only involves bringing new technology to market, it imposes higher risk on the future of existing assets. We characterize the asset pricing implications of creative destruction when investors compete for market share. Compared to the social optimum, the quest for oligopoly rents leads to over-investment in uncertain projects, spikes in asset prices and risk premia, and an aftermath in which prices fall steeply as uncertainty resolves. These pricing patterns resemble a bubble ex post, but arise solely from competitive behavior and do not require information asymmetry, behavioral biases, or financial frictions. Our analysis yields novel empirical predictions and we discuss how financial innovation might be used to predict bubbles ex ante. |
| JEL: | G12 L13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23455&r=dcm |
| By: | Richters, Oliver; Siemoneit, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Worldwide economic growth is fostered, despite its severe conflicts with sustainability and despite the tendency of secular stagnation. To study whether this fostering is 'only' a question of political and individual will or 'unavoidable' to maintain economic stability, we deliver a rather narrow micro level definition of a 'growth imperative'. We divide the many alleged growth imperatives into five categories and review them, thereby reducing several reasonings to few core arguments. We conclude that neither commercial competition, nor profit expectations, nor the monetary system are stand-alone growth imperatives. Instead, when technological innovations (based on resource consumption) are introduced, market forces lead to a systematic necessity to net invest due to the interplay of creative destruction, profit maximization, and the need to limit losses. Unemployment is substantially caused by productivity gains, and the societal and political necessity of high employment explains why states 'must' foster economic growth. This explanation is culturally and normatively parsimonious and empirically substantiated. |
| Keywords: | Wachstumszwang,Nullwachstum,säkulare Stagnation,Geldsystem, Wettbewerb,Profit,technischer Fortschritt,growth imperative,zero growth,secular stagnation,monetary system,competition,profit,technological progress |
| JEL: | Q01 O40 O44 P10 P1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:voodps:62017&r=dcm |
| By: | Izabela Jonek-Kowalska (The Silesian University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Due to increasing economic and sector risk coal mining in Europe is treated as a declining industry. In post-transition economies such approach is a threat for energy security and local and regional economic development. Nowadays, coal mining survival in Central-East Europe is additionally threatened by accumulative global risk factors, especially by price differentiation and shale gas revolution in United States of America. Revealed circumstances require deepen research and diagnosis in the area of risk and corporate management in mining enterprises in Central-East Europe. The main aim of the article is to assess industrial risk in coal mining in Central-East Europe. The research is divided into three parts. In the first one the situation of coal mining in Central-East Europe is characterized. It is the basis for selection of the countries for the detailed analysis. In the second part the industrial risk factors are assessed and described. Finally, in the third part their influence on financial results in the examined mining enterprises is evaluated. In the summary the international comparison is made and general assumptions for risk and corporate management are formulated. In the article a risk checklist is used to identify the economic and industrial risk factors. To determine their influence on financial results on the first stage of research Pearson’s coefficients are used. Than regression functions are developed. The data are collected on the basis of public statistics and financial statements of the examined mining enterprises. On the basis of research results it may be stated that there are only a few countries in Europe in which mining enterprises still operate as separate economic units and all of them have experienced serious financial troubles in the last years. Risk intensification contributed mostly to revenues reduction and negative financial results. |
| Keywords: | post-transition economies, economic and industrial risk, coal mining |
| JEL: | P23 P28 G31 L72 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no42&r=dcm |
| By: | Goldbach, Stefan; Nagengast, Arne J.; Steinmüller, Elias; Wamser, Georg |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between foreign and domestic investment activity of multinational enterprises. The empirical analysis is based on micro data of German firms and their operations at home and abroad, including information on investment in fixed assets. The empirical approach, which rests upon extensive and intensive margin variation, is shown to produce very robust results. These suggest a positive relationship between foreign and home investment in real capital. This positive effect seems to be mainly related to additional opportunities for tax planning and better access to financing capital. In contrast, we do not find evidence that improved production processes and technology upgrading cause the positive effect on investment at home. Our empirical approach allows us to distinguish between an extensive and intensive margin effect: setting up a new foreign affiliate leads to an immediate positive effect of about EUR 450,000 additional investment; the investment elasticity at the intensive margin is estimated to be approximately 0.13. |
| Keywords: | Outward FDI,Multinational Firms,Domestic Investment,Corporate Taxes,Internal Capital Markets,Technology |
| JEL: | F23 F61 H25 L23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:142017&r=dcm |
| By: | Alberto Alesina; Bryony Reich; Alessandro Riboni |
| Abstract: | The increase in army size observed in early modern times changed the way states conducted wars. Starting in the late 18th century, states switched from mercenaries to a mass army by conscription. In order for the population to accept to fight and endure war, the government elites began to provide public goods, reduced rent extraction and adopted policies to homogenize the population with nation-building. This paper explores a variety of ways in which nation-building can be implemented and studies its effects as a function of technological innovation in warfare. |
| JEL: | P16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23435&r=dcm |
| By: | Wei Dai (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Mark Weder (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Bo Zhang (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | People's animal spirits are a significant driver behind the fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle. This insight is demonstrated within an estimated artificial economy with financial market frictions. Animal spirits shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations over the period from 1955 to 2014. Financial friction and technology shocks are considerably less important with best point estimates for both near 20 percent. We also find that the Great Recession, for the most parts, was caused by adverse shocks to expectations. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous financial frictions, indeterminacy, animal spirits, business cycles, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2017-08&r=dcm |
| By: | Isaev, Mirolim; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | There is little empirical evidence from the econometric analysis of the relationship between private sector’s foreign debt servicing and social development in open economies. This paper examines the relationship between private sector share of foreign debt, the unemployment rate and trade openness with Australia as a case study over the period 1988Q4-2016Q4. We employ Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique to explore the presence of theoretical long-run relationship among these variables. Our empirical findings indicate the presence of long-run equilibrium among variables. Moreover, the empirical results tend to reveal that the accumulation of private sector share of foreign debt is associated with the growth in Australia’s unemployment rate. We suggest for the policy makers that improvement of the private sector’s foreign debt is likely to reduce the unemployment rate. |
| Keywords: | private sector foreign debt, unemployment, trade openness, ARDL, variance decompositions |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79423&r=dcm |
| By: | Pawel Krolikowski; Andrew H. McCallum |
| Abstract: | We present a tractable framework that embeds goods-market frictions in a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporters and identical importers. These frictions arise because it is time consuming and expensive for exporters and importers to meet. We show that search frictions lead to an endogenous fraction of unmatched exporters, alter the gains from trade, endogenize entry costs, and imply that the competitive equilibrium does not generally result in the socially optimal number of searching firms. Finally, ignoring search frictions results in biased estimates of the effect of tariffs on trade flows. |
| Keywords: | Search ; Trade ; Goods ; Frictions ; Information |
| JEL: | D83 F12 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1207&r=dcm |
| By: | Amsler, Christine; Prokhorov, Artem; Schmidt, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a stochastic frontier model that contains environmental variables that affect the level of inefficiency but not the frontier. The model contains statistical noise, potentially endogenous regressors, and technical inefficiency that follows the scaling property, in the sense that it is the product of a basic (half-normal) inefficiency term and a parametric function of the environmental variables. The environmental variables may be endogenous because they are correlated with the statistical noise or with the basic inefficiency term. Several previous papers have considered the case of inputs that are endogenous because they are correlated with statistical noise, and if they contain environmental variables these are exogenous. One recent paper allows the environmental variables to be correlated with statistical noise. Our paper is the first to allow both the inputs and the environmental variables to be endogenous in the sense that they are correlated either with statistical noise or with the basic inefficiency term. Correlation of inputs or environmental variables with the basic inefficiency term raises non-trivial conceptual issues about the meaning of exogeneity, and technical issues of estimation of the model. |
| Keywords: | environmental variables; stochastic frontier; endogeneity |
| Date: | 2017–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syb:wpbsba:2123/16763&r=dcm |
| By: | Juan Jung (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Enrique López-Bazo (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the incidence of broadband on regional productivity in Brazil, intending to find out if the economic impact is uniform across all territories of the country. The possibility of performing a regional approach, instead of the usual country-level analysis, means an opportunity to disentangle the economic impact of broadband at territories which share a common institutional and regulatory framework as are the regions inside a country. Results suggest that the impact of broadband on productivity is positive although not uniform across regions. On the one hand, it seems to depend on connection quality and network effects. Faster download speed and critical-mass accounting for network externalities in the region enhance the economic impact of broadband. On the other hand, higher productivity gains are estimated for the less developed regions. The fact that the less productive regions in Brazil seem to be benefiting more from broadband may suggest that it can constitute a factor favoring regional convergence in the country. |
| Keywords: | Broadband, Information and Communication Technologies, Regional Productivity JEL classification: O33, O47, R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201704&r=dcm |
| By: | Rita Remeikiene (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, V. Kudirkos 18-2, 03105, Vilnius, Lithuania); Ligita Gaspareniene (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, V. Kudirkos 18-2, 03105, Vilnius, Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | Increasing flows of migration have not only positive, but also negative effects on economics, first of all, by causing substantial disproportions in the labour market. Lithuanian national economy has been hurt by excessive emigration rates. With reference to the projections of ‘Eurostat’ (2015, pp. 1-16), by 2060, Lithuanian population will have decreased by 1.8 million. Loss of such big quantities of the labour force is dramatically reducing competitiveness of the country. Although scientific literature is relatively rich in the studies on the links between emigration and general structural components of competitiveness, the current and plausible future impact of high emigration rates on the competitiveness of Lithuania has hardly been researched. To assess the impact of emigration on the competitiveness of Lithuanian economics. Comparative and systematic analysis of the scientific literature, correlation analysis. It has been found that a substantial part of the indicators of Lithuanian competitiveness show different trends than those which are described in the scientific literature. This finding discloses the complexity of the situation in the country. It should be noted that although the country is losing its labour force, the rates of GDP per capita are increasing. This tendency can be explained by intensive flows of investment in R&D, i.e. the model of the country’s economy is being redirected from cheap labour to technology-based economy. Nevertheless, the situation in the country is worsened by sustainability of high unemployment rate and high risk of population’s poverty. Lithuania really needs to start caring about its demographic resources because in the future the trends of low birthrate and aging society will ultimately cause the problems of social support and tax burden for the employed population. |
| Keywords: | export, factors, evaluation, Lithuania |
| JEL: | J11 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no98&r=dcm |
| By: | Knotek, Edward S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Garciga, Christian (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | Beyond GDP, which is measured using expenditure data, the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) provide an income-based measure of the economy (gross domestic income, or GDI), a measure that averages GDP and GDI, and various aggregates that include combinations of GDP components. This paper compiles real-time data on a variety of NIPA aggregates and uses these in simple time-series models to construct out-of-sample forecasts for GDP growth. Over short forecast horizons, NIPA aggregates—particularly consumption and GDP less inventories and trade—together with these simple time-series models have historically generated more accurate forecasts than a canonical AR(2) benchmark. This has been especially true during recessions, although we document modest gains during expansions as well. |
| Keywords: | forecasting; GDP; GDI; real-time data; consumption; |
| JEL: | C32 C53 E01 |
| Date: | 2017–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1708&r=dcm |
| By: | He, Ming (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); van Marrewijk, Charles (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the consequences of China's massive transformation of cities for firm-level productivity and technology spillovers at the detailed district/county level for the Electric Apparatus sector. We identify three types of regions (metro core, metro ring, and periphery) and three types of transformation variables (modernization, mobility, and economic regional disparity). Using a spatial autoregressive model which allows us to distinguish between spillovers within the region and between neighboring regions, and after controlling for the standard results found in the literature, we nd that: modernization and mobility contribute signifficantly to interregional technology spillovers with neighboring regions, while economic regional disparity signifficantly discourages such types of spillovers and instead encourages spillovers with firms within the region. Of the three transformation variables, disparity explains most of the variance in spillover e ects, followed by mobility and modernization. |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-01&r=dcm |
| By: | Bobylev, Yuri (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Rasenko, Olesya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper considers the main approaches to the construction of tax regimes for the oil sector of the economy. A comparative analysis of various tax regimes that can be used to improve the efficiency of the tax system in the oil sector of the Russian economy is carried out. This work formulates recommendations on the state tax policy in relation to the oil sector aimed at ensuring the revenues of the state budget and creating the necessary conditions for investment. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041723&r=dcm |
| By: | Tatsuyoshi Saijo (Research Center for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology); Jun Feng (Research Center for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology); Yutaka Kobayashi (Research Center for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Efficient allocations in common-pool resources cannot be accomplished when appropriators are selfish. In addition, we find that a system of a common-pool resource is locally unstable if there are four or more appropriators. Such instability most likely makes efficiency worse than that in the Nash equilibrium. These results indicate that equilibrium analyses might not capture the essence of the common-pool resource problem. They may also provide an answer to the unexplained pulsing behavior among appropriators and inefficiency observed in experiments. |
| Keywords: | instability, Nash equilibrium, common-pool resources, pulsing behavior, appropriation problem |
| JEL: | C62 C72 C92 Q22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2017-5&r=dcm |
| By: | James E. Anderson; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | Short run gravity is a geometric weighted average of long run gravity and bilateral capacity. The model features (i) joint trade costs endogenous to bilateral volumes, (ii) long run gravity as a limiting case of efficient investment in bilateral capacities, (iii) a structural ratio of short run to long run trade elasticities equal to a micro-founded buyers' incidence elasticity, and (iv) tractable short and long run models of the extensive margin. Application to manufacturing trade of 52 countries during the globalization period 1988-2006 strongly supports the model. Results solve several time invariance and trade elasticity puzzles in the literature. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23458&r=dcm |
| By: | José Miguel Matus |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the main changes in regulation and the measurement of market risks of the banking industry. In that sense, this article focuses its analysis in the 1979-2015 period, especially the main recommendations of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and the challenges facing the banks in terms of existing gaps between the current regulation and the standards suggested by the BCBS. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchee:119&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Buslowska (Uniwersytet w Bialymstoku); Beata Wisniewska (Wyzsza Szkola Ekonomiczna) |
| Abstract: | Today, the value of skilled, complex and creative work is growing fast. In the global knowledge economy, people's knowledge, skills learning, talents and abilities - their human capital - have become a main factor of economic growth. In many regions, the potential of human capital is restricted, eg. in podlaskie voivodship. Particular problems exist in the field of vocational education as a result of long-term under-funding of vacational schools, reversal of proportion in choice between vacational and regular high schools, etc. Especially in the field of vacational education exists low quality of training. Education systems can do much to help people realise their potential and external funding (eg. EU) can support innovative projects for the development of human resources. The main goal of this article is to show an exemple of innovative project in the field of vacational education. In frame of EU instrument called Integrated Territorial Investments in Bialystok Functional Area (BFA) is implementing project “Competence Center of BFA”. The project is to support the development of knowledge, professional skills, talents and abilities. In the article was described a case study of “Competence Center of BFA”, which aims to adapt the competence to the needs of the regional economy. Case study will be preceded by an analysis of the situation of vocational education in the area of BFA and analysis of theoretical issues. The analysis led to the following conclusions: vocational education requires a broad integrated support; cooperation with different stakeholders (especially with employers, organizations of business environment, etc.) is essential to achieve high-quality education; a vocational education should be more attractive for pupils. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; human development; economic development |
| JEL: | J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no16&r=dcm |
| By: | Peter Mitic |
| Abstract: | The changing nature of the relationship between a retail bank and its customers is examined, particularly with respect to new financial concepts, debt and regulation. The traditional image of a bank is portrayed as a physical building a classical Doric portico. This image conveys concepts of service, soundness, strength, stability and security ("five-S"). That "five-S" concept is changing, and the evidence for changes that affect customers directly is considered. A fundamental legal problem associated with those changes is highlighted: a bank is no longer solely responsible for the safeguard of customer monies. A solution to this problem is proposed: banks should be jointly liable with perpetrators of criminal activity in the event of frauds as an encouragement to recognise and mitigate fraud. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.10974&r=dcm |
| By: | Marchese, Carla; Marsiglio, Simone; Privileggi, Fabio; Ramello, Giovanni B. |
| Abstract: | We show that, even in a framework in which monopolistic exploitation of patents does not occur, patents still give rise to serious drawbacks. We build on Weitzman’s (1998) recombinant growth model which provides a stylized but clear description of the formation of knowledge externalities. In our framework a benevolent government buys immediately new patents in a competitive market and releases their contents for free. We show that inefficiencies nevertheless arise and welfare can be improved by correcting the market price through a tax-subsidy scheme. We characterize the (asymptotic) steady state equilibrium, and some properties of the transitional path. We show that if certain conditions are met, then the economy will converge to its (asymptotic) balanced growth path, and along such a path growth will be independent of the policy parameter; conversely, transition dynamics are affected by the choice of the policy parameter. We then quantitatively analyze the effect of different policy interventions on welfare, and show that stricter tax (weaker appropriability) regimes lead to higher social welfare. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uca:ucaiel:23&r=dcm |
| By: | Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Lamonaca, Emilia; Contò, Francesco; Stasi, Antonio; Nardone, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | Understanding the determinants of price volatility is a key step to prevent potential negative consequences of to the uncertainty faced by farmers. Our critical provides a novel categorization of grain price volatility drivers. We distinguish endogenous and exogenous causes and conclude on the potential effects that each of identified factors may generate on price dynamics. In particular, we deepen on the contribution of endogenous factors such as spatial and temporal arbitrage, as well as drivers of shocks of demand and supply. |
| Keywords: | Grain, Price, Risk, Uncertainty, Volatility |
| JEL: | D81 E31 Q11 Q13 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79427&r=dcm |
| By: | Burgher, Joshua; Hamers, Herbert (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a quantitative model that can be used for decision support for planning and optimizing the composition of portfolios of market-driven academic programs within the context of higher education. This model is intended to enable leaders in colleges and universities to maximize financial performance of the selection of market-driven academic programs while also achieving qualitative targets for dimensions of the portfolio (e.g., mission alignment, student demographics, and faculty characteristics). This model is then applied to a case from a school of continuing education at a prestigious private university in the US. The results of the case highlight the potential positive impact of utilizing a model such as this for planning purposes. |
| Keywords: | program portfolio optimization; strategic planning; integer linea programming; higher education; quantifying qualitatvie program data |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:e0782c5b-c2ad-443d-b0ad-9a5963c7ed45&r=dcm |
| By: | Iskakov, Aziz |
| Abstract: | Within the framework of this article, intermediate results of the analysis of the need and prospects for the development and implementation of a national open access program in Kazakhstan are presented. The positions of Kazakhstan organizations and researchers in international initiatives in the field of open access to the results of scientific (scientific and technical) activities are investigated, and the necessity of improving the state policy in the sphere of education and science in support of the information infrastructure is substantiated. Implemented earlier and current projects in the field of open access, as well as the main NAPs and policy documents regulating the development of science in the Republic of Kazakhstan were studied. The analysis of existing budgetary programs administered by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan within the framework of implementation of these documents is carried out. In the course of the study, the goals and objectives of the national initiative on open access, the basic principles for the development of an efficiency assessment system and the public-private partnership model applicable in the implementation of this program were formulated. *** В рамках настоящей статьи представлены промежуточные результаты анализа потребности и перспектив разработки и внедрения национальной программы открытого доступа в Казахстане. Исследованы позиции казахстанских организаций и исследователей в международных инициативах в сфере открытого доступа к результатам научной (научно-технической) деятельности, а также обоснована необходимость совершенствования государственной политики в сфере образования и науки в части поддержки информационной инфраструктуры. Изучены реализовавшиеся ранее и действующие проекты в сфере открытого доступа, а также основные НПА и программные документы регламентирующие развитие науки в Республике Казахстан. Проведен анализ действующих бюджетных программ администрируемых Министерством образования и науки Республики Казахстан в рамках реализации этих документов. В ходе проведения исследования были сформулированы цели и задачи национальной инициативы открытого доступа, базовые принципы разработки системы оценки эффективности и модели государственно-частного партнерства применимые в реализации данной программы. |
| Keywords: | knowledge economy, research infrastructure, open access, open access, scientific communication |
| JEL: | H83 O32 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79462&r=dcm |
| By: | Loretta Mastroeni; Pierluigi Vellucci |
| Abstract: | We test whether the futures prices of some commodity and en- ergy markets are determined by stochastic rules or exhibit nonlinear deterministic endogenous uctuations. As for the methodologies, we use the maximal Lyapunov exponents (MLE) and a determinism test, both based on the reconstruction of the phase space of a dynamical sys- tem underlying a scalar time series. In particular, employing a recent methodology, we estimate a coecient that describes the determin- ism rate of the analyzed time series. The empirical evidence suggests that commodity and energy futures prices are the measured footprint of a nonlinear deterministic, rather than a stochastic, system. |
| Keywords: | chaos, butter y e ect, commodity futures. |
| JEL: | C53 D40 Q02 Q47 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0218&r=dcm |
| By: | Alberto Naudon; Andrés Pérez |
| Abstract: | As a proxy for Chile's labor market, we analyze labor market flows of the Metropolitan Region of Santiago throughout the last fifty years. Following Shimer (2012) and others, we calculate job finding and job separation rates (hazard rates) to and from employment and unemployment considering unemployment stocks. Interestingly enough, even though the current trend unemployment rate is not materially different to what it was fifty years ago, our results suggest the labor market is considerably more dynamic. The increase in trend hazard rates occurs in the context of significant changes in economic growth, ongoing reallocation of output towards services relative to manufacturing, important regulatory changes in the labor market, and a gradual shift in the composition of the labor force. In addition, our estimates suggest that changes in the finding rate are relatively more important than changes in the separation rate in explaining the variance of the unemployment rate. From an international perspective our estimates suggest that in spite of having relatively rigid labor legislation, the Chilean labor market appears to be as dynamic as an average Anglo-Saxon country, yet less dynamic than the labor market of the United States. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:800&r=dcm |
| By: | Harker, Patrick T. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | In a commencement address at the Jefferson College of Health Professions and Jefferson College of Pharmacy, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker focused on the connection between health and economic prosperity. |
| Keywords: | economic prosperity; personal health |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpsp:133&r=dcm |
| By: | Vladimíra Kucerova (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Value added tax, as an instrument of fiscal policy and also a very important income for the state budget. It is one of the universal indirect taxes, which has a significant influence on the price level in the country. The European Union's system of value added tax on goods and services are primarily governed by "the 6th VAT Directive" set by the European Commission. The paper deals with the question of how changes in the rates of value added tax influence buying behaviour of customers. Buying behaviour could be expressed as decisions of customers about expending their own resources such as money, effort and time, on items related to their consumption in order to meet their needs. The area of the research is a Czech retail market with food. Due to the nature of VAT, the influence of this tax on buying behaviour was quantified by price elasticity of demand respectively indirect tax elasticity of demand. The article is conceived as a case study, according to the principles R.K. Yin. The evaluation of buying behaviour is based on real data, which deals with volumes of sales and sales prices realized in a specific Czech retail chain, which associate more than 200 shops. The goal of the study is not only to propose the way how to identify buyers' response to the changes in the VAT rate, but also to bring the knowledge about customers’ response to the realized changes, and finally to propose how to use this knowledge in a development of pricing strategy in case of further changes in the VAT rate. |
| Keywords: | Value Added Tax, price elasticity of demand, buying behavior, food retail, case study |
| JEL: | D12 H31 E62 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no52&r=dcm |
| By: | Martin Lukáèik (University of Economics in Bratislava, Dolnozemská cesta 1, Bratislava, Slovakia); Karol Szomolányi (University of Economics in Bratislava, Dolnozemská cesta 1, Bratislava, Slovakia); Adriana Lukáèiková (University of Economics in Bratislava, Dolnozemská cesta 1, Bratislava, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The value of the elasticity of the substitution has been a subject of the research around the world in last decades. It affects the qualitative and quantitative answers to a host of economic questions. Purpose of the article: We suggest the co-integration estimation form to estimate short-run elasticity of substitution. Using U.S. NIPA aggregate time series we estimate aggregate short-run elasticity of substitution. In comparison with estimations in economic literature, we confirm theoretical assumptions described in the research background. Methodology/methods: Different econometric estimation forms are used to estimate elasticity of the substitution coefficient. One possibility is a constant elasticity of substitution production function linearization. Others come from the first-order conditions of a representative firm expressing factor demand functions. Error correction models are natural and elegant way to estimate the forms with non-stationary data. However, the use of error correction models in the factor demand econometric forms is useless for estimating a long-run elasticity of substitution coefficient. The co-integration relationship is given by the theoretical assumption of the labour share constancy in the long-run or by other underlying processes. Though, we can use this co-integration relationship to correct error term in the short-run estimation form. To estimate the short-run elasticity of substitution, we use Stock and Watson’s estimation form. Stability, stationarity and serial correlation of residuals are tested by the relevant econometric tests. Findings: The value of aggregate short-run elasticity of substitution is closed to one. In comparison with other relevant theoretical and empirical papers, our results incline to the Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function in U.S. economy. |
| Keywords: | short-run and long-run elasticity of substitution, aggregate and sectoral estimations, vector error correction model, labour demand of the profit maximizing firm |
| JEL: | C13 E23 E24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no63&r=dcm |
| By: | HOSONO Kaoru; MIYAKAWA Daisuke; TAKIZAWA Miho |
| Abstract: | Using data for 3,800 Japanese firms and their 20,000 overseas subsidiaries over the period 2000-2013, we estimate the subsidiary-level production function to check whether or not intangible assets accumulated by parent firms contribute to the subsidiary production. We find that, first, the intangibles (i.e., software, advertisement, and research & development capital) owned by parent firms positively contribute to subsidiary production. Second, the contribution is stronger in the case of smaller subsidiaries. Third, such positive contribution from parent firms' intangible to subsidiaries' production is confirmed for most of the subsidiary locations. These results jointly suggest that intangibles contribute to firm activities even if they are in geographically remote locations. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17073&r=dcm |
| By: | Rodney J. Andrews; John Thompson |
| Abstract: | The competitive application process is the traditional path to gain access to selective public universities. There is little research on alternative pathways to gain access to selective public universities. In this manuscript, we use the fuzzy regression discontinuity design to study the impact of transferring to the University of Texas at Austin. We find that gaining access via this path has an impact on choice of major, financial aid, and earnings. |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23442&r=dcm |
| By: | Ahmed, Azleen Rosemy; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long run relationship between financial development and income inequality in Malaysia over the period of 1970-2007. For the last 45 years, Malaysian income inequality has been decreasing from a height of 0.56 (Gini coefficient) in 1976 to 0.4 in 2014 while its economy and financial sector especially the banking industry has been expanding. The issue of importance is to investigate whether in a developing economy, the financial sector plays a role in reducing income inequality by mobilising and allocating savings into productive investments. We have employed the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach and the error correction mechanism to examine the existence of long run relationship, while variance decomposition (VDC) technique is used to provide Granger causal relationship between the variables. The cointegration tests show that there is a long run relationship between financial development, economic growth, trade openness and income inequality in Malaysia. However, financial development itself is found to be not statistically significant in influencing income inequality during the sample period. This finding is similar to Law & Tan’s (2009) findings over a shorter period 1980-2000. However, the VDC finds that financial development can be a tool for the government to employ to reduce income inequality. This paper also provides evidence that trade openness helps reduce income inequality. In terms of policy, enhancing financial access that would steer the development of financial system towards a pro-growth and pro-poor direction is needed to ensure that financial development fully supports the reduction of income inequality in Malaysia. |
| Keywords: | Financial development, income inequality, Malaysia, ARDL |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79416&r=dcm |
| By: | Krasnova, Gulnara (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the national education systems of the BRICS countries are analyzed: accessibility, quality, structure, qualifications, financing, management, additional vocational education, ongoing reforms. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041733&r=dcm |
| By: | Justyna Zygmunt (Opole University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | While a large literature exists linking entrepreneurship with its drivers in developed economies, entrepreneurship issues in the transition economies are still no entirely recognised. The Visegrad countries represent a unique scope for examining drivers affecting entrepreneurial activity in the transition economies, since they faced similarities at the beginning of the transformation. The findings may be supportive in identifying threats and opportunities of the economic development of Central and Eastern Europe regions.This paper contributes to the literature on entrepreneurship by focusing on drivers of entrepreneurial activity in the transition economies. The aim of the paper is to analyse how entrepreneurial activity in respective Visegrad countries is influenced by various drivers.Entrepreneurship activity and its drivers in the Visegrad countries were considered for the 2004-2014 period. Hypotheses were tested with the usage of an Ordinary Least Squared regression. F-test was employed to test estimated regressions. Goodness-of-fit of the regressions was controlled with the coefficient of determination. To check for the collinearity, Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used.In this paper the approach for improving the understanding of issues related to entrepreneurship in the transition economies is made. This paper contributes to the understanding of how entrepreneurship activity in the Visegrad countries is influenced by various drivers. The main finding is that although entrepreneurial activity in the Visegrad countries seems to be influenced by similar drivers that have been identified for developed economies, the way in which respective drivers matters for entrepreneurship is, in certain cases, distinct. The findings may attract attention of policymakers and may be useful in the processes of policy pursuing. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, transition economies, the Visegrad countries |
| JEL: | L26 P25 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no151&r=dcm |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The OECD Fisheries Support Estimate (FSE) database collects and classifies information on budgetary transfers to the fisheries sector in 31 countries that together account for 35% of global fisheries landings. In 2015, the most recent year, it inventories policies and programmes totalling USD 7 billion. Most of this support is found to be directed towards general services to the fishing sector, mainly in the form of fisheries management costs, but also for, inter alia, infrastructure, research and stock enhancement. Approximately USD 500 million per year is used for programmes that deliver funds directly in the hands of fishers. The share of this form of support has been decreasing over time. Payments based on the use of variable inputs are found to be the most likely to provoke increased fishing effort, while payments based on fixed capital formation are most likely to encourage increased capacity levels. Payments based on fishers income are less likely to increase effort or capacity and may be more effective at improving the welfare of fishers. Payments to general services for the sector are least likely to increase effort or fishing capacity. |
| Keywords: | Fisheries support, overcapacity, overfishing, subsidies |
| JEL: | H23 H53 H54 |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:103-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Ren, Chongqiang; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Li, Shasha; Chen, Wei |
| Abstract: | China has experienced extraordinary institutional and socio-economic changes after 1978, and its deepening reform to market-oriented economy since 1990s was also recognized as one the most significant factors to drive China's rise in the contemporary world. Although many aspects of China's market reform have been extensively analysed in the literature, specific attention on the adaptation of economic growth to this reform has been relatively ignored. To fill this gap, this research adopts the extenics assessment method to assess this adaptation and applies the membership function coordination degree model to analyse the sustainability of such adaptation. In conclusion, China has demonstrated a significantly enhanced adaptation capacity at the expense of coordination, which requires to be further emphasised in its economic growth adaptation strategies. |
| Keywords: | economic adaptation,extenics assessment method,membership function coordination degree model,market economy reform |
| JEL: | A11 O11 P21 P41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201724&r=dcm |
| By: | Lannoo, Karel |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis led to a raft of new or updated EU conduct rules to ensure the orderly functioning of markets and market operators. The core measure is known as MiFID II, which is a radical update of the 2004 Markets in Financial Instruments Directive. MiFID II is now in the implementation phase and may bring further structural change to Europe's securities markets. Other measures have also been issued or updated, such as the rules against market manipulation and on short selling, and the formation and use of benchmarks. This ECMI Policy Brief reviews these new measures and discusses their effects. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:ecmiwp:12565&r=dcm |
| By: | HOSONO Kaoru; TAKIZAWA Miho |
| Abstract: | Using a dataset of Japanese listed firms from 2002 to 2013, we examine how firms' asset structure in terms of the ratio of intangible to tangible capital is related to their choice of financing sources among bank loans, equity issues (seasoned equity offerings: SEO), and bond issues. We further investigate how the choice of financing is related to post-financing investment in tangible and intangible capital. We find that firms with higher intangible capital ratios are more likely to choose equity issuance and less likely to choose loans than bond issues. Using propensity score matching and difference-in-differences approach (PSM-DID), we further find that firms that chose loans invest less in intangible capital than those that did not. Finally, we also obtain results that are consistent with a number of existing theories on capital structure such as the market timing (mispricing) hypothesis on equity issuance, the tradeoff and the pecking order hypotheses on debt and equity, and the holdup hypothesis on bank loans. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17080&r=dcm |
| By: | Magombeyi, Mercy T; Odhiambo, Nicholas M |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal relationship between poverty reduction and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in South Africa using time-series data from 1980 to 2014. A trivariate framework is used in this analysis, with the addition of real gross domestic product (GDP) as an intermittent variable. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach to cointegration and ECM-based causality tests, the results from this study found a distinct unidirectional causality from poverty reduction to FDI in both the short run and the long run when poverty reduction is measured by life expectancy and infant mortality rate. However, the results failed to find any causality, irrespective of the time considered, when poverty reduction is measured by household consumption expenditure. Based on the results from this study, it can be concluded that the causal relationship between FDI and poverty reduction is sensitive to the proxy used to measure the level of poverty reduction. |
| Keywords: | South Africa; Household consumption expenditure; Life expectancy; infant mortality |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:22601&r=dcm |
| By: | Matthew R. Graham; Mark J. Kutzbach; Danielle H. Sandler |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program’s ongoing efforts to use administrative records in a predictive model that describes residence locations for workers. This project was motivated by the discontinuation of a residence file produced elsewhere at the U.S. Census Bureau. The goal of the Residence Candidate File (RCF) process is to provide the LEHD Infrastructure Files with residence information that maintains currency with the changing state of administrative sources and represents uncertainty in location as a probability distribution. The discontinued file provided only a single residence per person/year, even when contributing administrative data may have contained multiple residences. This paper describes the motivation for the project, our methodology, the administrative data sources, the model estimation and validation results, and the file specifications. We find that the best prediction of the person-place model provides similar, but superior, accuracy compared with previous methods and performs well for workers in the LEHD jobs frame. We outline possibilities for further improvement in sources and modeling as well as recommendations on how to use the preference weights in downstream processing. |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:17-40&r=dcm |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | This study, using monthly micro data of firms' forecasted and realized production quantities, presents new findings on uncertainty over production forecasts. This is the first empirical study employing monthly-frequency quantitative forecast data at the firm level. According to the analysis, forecast errors are quite heterogeneous among individual manufacturers. For example, some firms underpredict their production, even when aggregate level production is overpredicted. In terms of firm characteristics, firms operating in the information and communications technology (ICT)-related industries, firms producing investment goods, and smaller firms exhibit higher forecast uncertainty. The forecast uncertainty is greater in contractionary phases of the business cycle. The uncertainty measures calculated from micro data have a predictive power over macroeconomic fluctuations, which cannot be detected from the measures derived from publicly available aggregated data, suggesting the value of firm-level micro data. Finally, forecast uncertainty of Japanese manufacturing firms is associated with overseas policy uncertainty, in addition to Japan's own economic policy uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17081&r=dcm |
| By: | Shuo Liu; Harry Pei |
| Abstract: | We study the monotonicity of sender’s equilibrium strategy with respect to her type in signalling games. We use counterexamples to show that when the sender’s payoff is non-separable, the Spence-Mirrlees condition cannot rule out equilibria in which the sender uses non-monotone strategies. These equilibria can survive standard refinements as incentives are strict and the sender plays every action with positive probability. We provide sufficient conditions under which the sender’s strategy is monotone in every Nash equilibrium. Our conditions require the sender’s payoff to have strictly increasing differences between the state and the action profile and monotone with respect to each player’s action. We also identify and fully characterize a novel property on the sender’s payoff that we call increasing absolute differences over distributions, under which every pair of distributions over the receiver’s actions can be ranked endogenously. Our sufficient conditions fit into a number of applications, including advertising, warranty provision, education and job assignment, etc. |
| Keywords: | Signalling game, monotone equilibrium, Spence-Mirrlees condition, monotonesupermodular payoff, quasi-concavity preserving, increasing absolute differences over distributions |
| JEL: | C72 D82 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:252&r=dcm |
| By: | Wojciech Kisiala (Poznan University of Economics and Business); Katarzyna Suszynska (Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The processes of economic convergence observed in many developing countries are characterized by reduction of economic differences on the between-country level, which are accompanied by growing internal economic inequalities. This may stem from the fact that in catching-up countries, a more dynamic growth is observed in the economically strongest regions, which is initially reflected in spatial polarization and increasing regional inequalities. However, just as the countries reach higher levels of development, the diffusion of growth-inducing impulses to the remaining areas should lead to the spatial equalizing of the development levels and reducing regional inequalities. The aim of the paper is to determine the relations between the level of economic growth in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and observed economic inequalities. The theoretical frame adopted to describe and explain those relations was the so-called Williamson hypothesis in which the relation between the scale of regional inequalities and economic growth is illustrated by a curve shaped like an inverted U. The research procedure was intended to verify Williamson hypothesis by estimating parabolic econometric models. Indicators of economic growth along with measure of regional inequalities (Williamson’s coefficient of variation) were used in the regression modeling. The research period spans over the years 1995-2014. In the light of the conducted study of CEE countries, it was possible to observe both convergence symptoms as well as divergence tendencies. It can be thus stated that the analyzed CEE countries followed a similar path to the one observed earlier by Williamson in other developing countries. However, the analyses conducted by the authors on the national and regional levels of CEE countries were equivocal and did not fully support the theoretical assumptions of Williamson's hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | regional inequalities; economic growth; Williamson hypothesis; econometric modeling; Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | C51 O11 O47 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no122&r=dcm |
| By: | Danuta Szwajca (Silesian University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Corporate reputation and image are two valuable intangible resources of the company, aimed at building its long-term competitive advantage and market value. Although reputation and image are interrelated categories, they should not be identified with each another. The differences are not only in the definition and character, but also in the mechanism of formation and tools to create these resources by the company. Image is a picture, perceptions and associations about the company in the minds of consumers, which may be created using the tools of PR and advertising in a relatively short period of time. Reputation is a review of the company and its activities, formulated by various stakeholder groups on the basis of not only the advertising, but also on the basis of the assessment of real activities of companies in the long term. The cognitive objective of the article is to point out the fundamental differences between reputation and image on the basis of the analysis of approaches and theoretical concepts. The practical objective is to make an attempt to identify the differences and relationships between reputation and image on the basis of empirical analysis, therefore the research was conducted in the Polish banking sector. In order to evaluate the image and reputation, the survey method was used aimed at the customers of banks operating on the Polish market. The results allowed formulating the thesis that the banks that are characterized by a consistent, unambiguous and positive image have higher rates of reputation. Due to some limitations of research conducted, mainly concerning the size and methods of sampling as well as the method applied for measuring the corporate reputation and image, the relationships identified should be treated as a starting point for broader research and for conducting further discussions in this area. |
| Keywords: | corporate reputation, corporate image, intangible resources, banking sector. |
| JEL: | G21 L14 L25 M31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no126&r=dcm |
| By: | Richard Kalis (Department of Economic Policy); Erika Stracova |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the topic of deindustrialization as a process of a decreasing relative importance of manufacturing. While the decrease of manufacturing in major developed and developed economies is undeniable, the developing and newly industrialized economies are starting to experience this phenomenon as well. The results of the paper show that the so-called premature deindustrialization is mainly caused by outsourcing. Furthermore, the data suggest the existence of an upper limit of outsourcing for major developed economies. In these economies, the decrease of manufacturing is more likely caused by other relevant factors. Last but not least, a few transition economies face to a slightly decreasing value of outsourcing on a much lower level. This could be explained by a fragmentation of the entire value chain across the European Union. The empirical results are based on the Input-Output methodology, the observation period of fifteen years from 2000 to 2014 and a sample of 43 countries. |
| Keywords: | input-output analysis, deindustrialization, outsourcing |
| JEL: | C67 L60 |
| Date: | 2017–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brt:depwps:011&r=dcm |
| By: | Katarzyna Grotkiewicz (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Agnieszka Latawiec (International Institute for Sustainability, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontificia Universidade Catolica); Maciej Kubon (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Anna Szelag-Sikora (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Marcin Niemiec (University of Agriculture in Krakow) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Analysis of economic and agricultural indicators are important tools to evaluate the performance of agriculture and describe scientific and technical progress (Agol et al., 2014, pp. 1-9; Archibugi and Coco, 2004, pp. 629–654). They also enable comparisons between the performances of different countries. In the comprehensive review by McConnell and Bockstael (2005, pp. 621-669), the measures of development show that competitiveness, both in the international and domestic arena, should be evaluated by two main indexes: the work productivity index and the land productivity index. Purpose of the article: The objective of this paper is to analyse social and economic factors that influence the efficiency of agriculture in three dissimilar countries: Poland, Unites States of America and China. The analysed countries have characteristic features that influence development of specific branches of agriculture including the level of social and economic growth, structural features of agriculture, agricultural policy, and market situations, thus shaping the level and structure of production. To our knowledge, this is the first study that discusses work and land productivity in these three countries. Methodology/methods: For calculation of final indexes of work and land productivity for the analysed countries, basic control and economic characteristics are necessary. These were calculated using the Eurostat database (2014) and the Yearbook of International Statistics CSO (2012; 2013a, 2013b) and include the area of agricultural land, number of farms and the average size of farms, the number of people active in agriculture, and gross national production in total and in agriculture. Findings & Value added: We found that Poland has not yet reached optimal land or work force productivity. The indicators suggest Poland is agriculturally closer to developing countries than developed. In particular, we indicate a low agricultural efficiency compared with Western countries. We conclude that to realise the full potential of Polish agriculture, considerable changes, such as farm consolidation and alternative employment options for farm workers, are necessary. According to the analysed data, Poland in comparison to China and the USA is at the last position in the ranking achieving 4% of the GNP in agriculture. Moreover, the structure of small farms in Poland with the average surface area of 10.38 is considerably lower than in the USA (190 ha) which causes that Poland is a less-competitive country. However, one should remember that not all experiences of leading countries may be directly translated into Polish conditions, where agriculture was shaping in completely different conditions and its present level has its historical preconditions. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, agri-economic indicators, work performance, land efficiency, metod |
| JEL: | B41 E24 O17 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no30&r=dcm |
| By: | Nazeer, Abdul Malik; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Based on many studies, economic theories and real life experiences, we can understand that political instability has been a harmful factor that would hinder the flow of FDI and the growth of an economy. In our study, we would like to focus on Malaysia, which had its fair share of political instability issues due to the differences and existence of various races. But based on recent studies, it is considered a politically stable economy. Despite everything, Malaysia has been able to achieve consistent economic growth, therefore we believe Malaysia is an interesting country to explore further. This paper aims to analyze the impact of political instability on foreign direct investment and on economic growth of Malaysia. This study employs autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). It is based on a time series data over the period of 30 years ranging from 1984 to 2013. There has been no studies identified yet to our knowledge which has investigated the causal relationships between political instability, FDI and economic growth for Malaysia. Our study aims to fill this gap in literature and would be of great use for the policy makers and key decision makers of the economy. The empirical results reveal that there are both long and short run relationship between political instability, FDI and economic growth in Malaysia, with economic growth being the strongest driver for political instability and FDI. These findings have clear policy implications in that the government of Malaysia can make use of it by targeting the growth in the economy to impact FDI and political instability. |
| Keywords: | political instability, foreign direct investment, economic growth, Malaysia, ARDL |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79418&r=dcm |
| By: | Abhijith Anand (University of Waikato); Rajeev Sharma (University of Waikato); Rajiv Kohli (The College of William & Mary) |
| Abstract: | Managers use business analytic systems to search for solutions to improve future performance. However, how past performance motivates managers to undertake search for solutions is not well understood. The Behavioral Theory of the Firm (BTF) proposed that managers gather information and engage in search for a solution when they encounter performance problems. We propose a Theory of Performance-driven Search (TPS) and argue that managerial search effort is a function of combined variations in unit-level performance and variations in organizational performance. We tested our theory with managerial use of business analytic systems and monthly performance data collected from seven hospitals over a period of four years. Our findings indicate that after a decline in unit-level performance, managers’ search effort is shaped by patterns of organizational performance. We also find that managers’ search response to sustained decline is quicker when decline in organizational performance is steep and sustained. Consistent with hypotheses proposed by the TPS, our findings extend our understanding of managerial search behavior and have important implications for organizations’ efforts to create business value from the use of analytic technologies. |
| Keywords: | managerial search; business analytics; aspirations; performance feedback; problemistic search |
| Date: | 2017–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:17/12&r=dcm |
| By: | Leslie G. Manison (Economist) |
| Abstract: | The results from the second wave of the Eurosysystem’s Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) indicate that Cyprus households experienced very large falls in their incomes and value of real assets between 2009/2010 and 2013/2014. However, despite their worsening financial situation households largely maintained their relatively high level of consumption during the crisis years from 2012 onward by taking on more debt and running down their financial assets. This relative failure of Cyprus households to adjust their expenditures and repair their balance sheets during recent years has resulted in huge debt problems for many households and their creditors. Indeed, HFCS estimates indicate that the ratio of required debt payments to income for Cyprus indebted households reached 35.7% in 2014 and was an overwhelming 64.1% for the least-wealthy bottom 20%. Policy recommendations for dealing with the serious financial difficulties of households are advanced including a program to write-off the debt of households which do not have the ability to repay. |
| Keywords: | household net wealth, household dissaving, household debt, middle-class squeeze, tax evasion, debt write-offs. |
| JEL: | D12 E21 E69 G29 H26 H31 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:307&r=dcm |
| By: | Daniel Berkowitz |
| Abstract: | We contend that political institutions require a high level of bureaucratic capacity, as measured by the caliber of agency heads, if they are to have their preferred policy outcomes attained. Moreover, their policy objectives can only be realized when unified partisan majorities both delegate authority and constrain its exercise by administrative institutions. Panel evidence from the American states reveals that during times of unified Republican partisan control of state executive and legislative institutions are associated with higher income gains for affluent citizens, but only when bureaucratic capacity is sufficiently high. However, rising bureaucratic capacity at its lower levels only notably reduces incomes for affluent citizens when unified Democratic party governments hold power in the American states. These findings both highlight the critical role that agency leadership exerts for attaining policy outcomes consistent with democratic preferences, and underscore the limits of electoral institutions to shape policy outcomes of their own accord. |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:6079&r=dcm |
| By: | Sharma, Rishi (Department of Economics, Colgate University) |
| Abstract: | Many countries impose taxes on foreign investors while also having in place targeted subsidies and tax incentives that are designed to attract them. This paper shows that such a policy can be optimal from the standpoint of a host country. The government has an incentive to tax inframarginal firms because they are relatively immobile. It also has an incentive to subsidize marginal firms because the economic activity generated by such a subsidy can increase domestic wages in excess of the fiscal cost of the subsidy. These tax and subsidy policies improve host country welfare at the expense of foreigners. This analysis is thus able to provide an explanation for why tax coordination efforts can simultaneously entail reduced taxes and subsidies on foreign firms. |
| Keywords: | international taxation, foreign direct investment, firm heterogeneity, tax competition |
| JEL: | H87 H25 F23 |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgt:wpaper:2016-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Gerba, Eddie; Żochowski, Dawid |
| Abstract: | The Great Recession has been characterised by the two stylized facts: the buildup of leverage in the household sector in the period preceding the recession and a protracted economic recovery that followed. We attempt to explain these two facts as an information friction, whereby agents are uncertain about a new state of the economy following a financial innovation. To this end, we extend Boz and Mendoza (2014) by explicitly modelling the credit markets and by modifying the learning to an adaptive set-up. In our model the build-up of leverage and the collateral price cycles takes longer than in a stylized DSGE model with financial frictions. The boom-bust cycles occur as rare events, with two systemic crises per century. Financial stability is achieved with an LTV-cap regulation which smooths the leverage cycles through quantity (higher equity participation requirement) and price (lower collateral value) effects, as well as by providing an anchor in the learning process of agents. JEL Classification: G14, G17, G21, G32, E44, E58 |
| Keywords: | deregulation, financial engineering, leverage forecasting, macroprudential policy, uncertainty |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172068&r=dcm |
| By: | Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Firms with low credit risk realize higher returns than firms with high credit risk. This credit risk effect in the cross-section of stock returns is a puzzle because investors appear to pay a premium for bearing credit risk. A higher credit risk can reduce a propensity to invest. The basic goal of the paper is to analyse and verify the impact of the changes of financial and nonfinancial institutions’ credit ratings on the rates of return of shares. The following hypotheses have been formed: first, differences in the strength and direction of the reaction of stock prices between financial and nonfinancial institutions have been observed. Secondly, downgrades of credit ratings have got a stronger impact on the rates of return of shares than upgrades thereof. The analysis has been constructed for European companies for the period between 1995 and 2016 using the event study method. The sample has been divided according to: the direction of changes in credit ratings, countries’ economic divisions, the character of the institution. The prepared analysis suggests that nonfinancial stock prices react to changes in credit ratings similarly to stock prices of financial institutions. The moment of reaction is differentiated by taking the level of economic development. Generally, a stronger reaction to credit rating changes in the case of companies from lower and middle economies has been observed the than from high-income countries. |
| Keywords: | financial institutions, nonfinancial institutions, event study, credit ratings, stock prices |
| JEL: | G24 F21 G14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no18&r=dcm |
| By: | Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; Gallucci Netto, Humberto; Silva, Vinícius Augusto Brunassi |
| Abstract: | Using diff-in-diff approaches and the propensity-score matching, this study focuses on firm-level Tobin´s q and Market-to-book outcomes for Brazilian firms who in 2008 were required by Law 11.638/07 to adopt the full International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by 2010. Brazil’s tier-system of corporate governance standards for publicly-traded firms, its uniquely wholesale adoption of the IFRS, and the previously considerable gap between its national GAAP and IFRS readily lend the scenario to research, which thus far finds small or inconsistent results when focused on IFRS adoption-related outcomes in Europe and China. However, while these features recommend the transitioned Brazilian equity market to analysis, additional unique features, such as its small population size and its limited historical data -- of varied quality – increase the challenge in selecting a suitable empirical methodology. Using quarterly data from 2006-2011, control firms in the Nivel II and Novo Mercado tiers of Bovespa which already complied with higher quality accounting standards are matched to treatment firms in the Regular and Nivel I tiers with similar averaged values of size and sector. Our results suggest that there is a positive impact on Tobin´s q and Market-to-book for firms who are forced to adopt IFRS in Brazil. We can observe the same results when we consider all variables winsorized at 5% level. We also find a positive relation between the firm value (measured by Tobin´s q and Market-to-book) and net income. Firms with higher net income are more likely to have higher Tobin´s q and Market-tobook. In an opposite way, we find a negative relation among firm value, size, Ebit-to-sales, sales growth and PPE-to-sales. All results are statistically significant at 1% level. ' |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:442&r=dcm |
| By: | Nelson da Silva |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at analyzing Brazil`s exports and imports quantum cyclical behavior. Data observed are on a monthly basis from 1980 to 2015. The preliminary step consisted of analyzing structural breaks and calculating the unity root test. The spectral analysis, in its turn, allowed the identification of the cyclical components of the variables. The results of the preliminary step show that export series are stationary and import ones are integrated of order 1 and indicate structural breaks occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. The spectral study shows that exports are composed of long-term cycles at level, equivalent to periods of more than 13 years. The monthly rate of import quantum presented high frequency oscillations. In general, the spectral densities estimated are robust to the seasonal method and to the sample size used |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:456&r=dcm |
| By: | Dürdane Şirin Saracoğlu (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop a dynamic model of a multi-sector economy with an informal sector and segmented labour markets first to demonstrate how informal production and employment decline in transition towards the steady state, and second to analyse the impact of various labour market policies at the steady state. Our results primarily indicate that informal employment share increases with minimum wage, and decreases with reductions in the payroll taxes, moreover, reducing the tax imposed on employer is more effective in reducing the informal employment share, while reducing the tax imposed on employee is more effective in increasing consumer felicity. |
| Keywords: | Segmented labour markets, informal employment, payroll taxes, minimum wage, dynamic modelling |
| JEL: | C61 J42 O17 O41 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1705&r=dcm |
| By: | Lionel Jeusette (University of Luxembourg, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management); Philip Verwimp (Université libre de Bruxelles); Gudrun Østby |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence points at the importance of childhood aspirations for our understanding of poverty and development. But how are these affected by the exposure to violence? This paper employs a logistic framework to study that question for Burundi, a conflict-affected, fragile state. Using data from a new nationwide survey with a panel component we distinguish between armed violence, domestic violence, violence at school and participation in violence. We find that (i) aspiring a job in the public sector is popular regardless of the type of violence; (ii) Children exposed to armed conflict have higher aspirations, defined as wishing to be employed outside of agriculture. Our results also show that these children, as well as children exposed to domestic violence, have a lower probability to fulfill their aspirations; (iii) children exposed to violence at school or children who perpetrated violence do not aspire to leave agriculture, making that their outcomes are closer to their aspirations, (iv) the differences between aspirations and outcomes for the four types of violence have a strong gender component. |
| Keywords: | aspirations, outcomes, armed violence, domestic violence, aspirations failures. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:247&r=dcm |
| By: | Lionel Jeusette; Philip Verwimp |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence points at the importance of childhood aspirations for our understanding of poverty and development. But how are these affected by the exposure to violence? This paper employs a logistic framework to study that question for Burundi, a conflict-affected, fragile state. Using data from a new nationwide survey with a panel component we distinguish between armed violence, domestic violence, violence at school and participation in violence. We find that (i) aspiring a job in the public sector is popular regardless of the type of violence; (ii) Children exposed to armed conflict have higher aspirations, defined as wishing to be employed outside of agriculture. Our results also show that these children, as well as children exposed to domestic violence, have a lower probability to fulfill their aspirations; (iii) children exposed to violence at school or children who perpetrated violence do not aspire to leave agriculture, making that their outcomes are closer to their aspirations, (iv) the differences between aspirations and outcomes for the four types of violence have a strong gender component. |
| Keywords: | aspirations; outcomes; armed violence; domestic violence; aspiration failures |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/251557&r=dcm |
| By: | Gorga, Carmine |
| Abstract: | If the Stock Market crashes, the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) ought to open the Discount Window to Main Street, by making 1. loans only for the creation of real wealth; 2. loans at cost; 3. loans to benefit as large a number of people as possible by issuing loans to individual entrepreneurs, cooperatives, corporations with ESOPs and/or CSOPs as well as to public agencies with taxing power to fund infrastructure projects. |
| Keywords: | D73, D78, E02, E32, E44, E52, E58, F53, G01, G18, G28, H12 |
| JEL: | D73 D78 E02 E32 E44 E52 E58 F53 G01 G18 G28 H12 |
| Date: | 2017–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79408&r=dcm |
| By: | Alberto Peretti (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | The problem of ranking a set of elements, namely giving a “rank” to the elements of the set, may arise in very different contexts and may be handled in some possible different ways, depending on the ways these elements are set in competition the ones against the others. For example there are contexts in which we deal with an even paired competition, in the sense the pairings are evenly matched: if we think for example of a national soccer championship, each team is paired with every other team the same number of times. Sometimes we may deal with an uneven paired competition: think for example of the UEFA Champions League, in which the pairings are not fully covered, but just some pairings are set, by means of a random selection process for example. Mathematically based ranking schemes can be used and may show interesting connections between the ranking problems and classical theoretical results. In this working paper we first show how a linear scheme in the ranking process directly takes to some fundamental Linear Algebra concepts and results, mainly the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of linear transformations and Perron–Frobenius theorem. We apply also the linear ranking model to a numerical simulation taking the data from the Italian soccer championship 2015-2016. We finally point out some interesting differences in the final ranking by comparing the actual placements of the teams at the end of the contest with the mathematical scores provided to teams by the theoretical model. |
| Keywords: | Ranking scheme, Linear transformation, Eigenvalues, Dominant eigenvalue |
| JEL: | C65 C69 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:22/2016&r=dcm |
| By: | Thai Ha-Huy (EPEE, University of Evry-val-d’Essonne); Cuong Le Van (IPAG Business School, Paris School of Economics, CNRS, TIMAS); Frank Page (Indiana University); Myrna Wooders (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | We consider an exchange economy with a finite number of assets and a finite number of agents. The utility functions of the agents are concave, strictly increasing and their suprema equal infity. We use weak no-arbitrage prices a la Dana and Le Van [5]. Our main result is: an equilibrium exists if, and only if, their exists a weak no-arbitrage price common to all the agents. |
| Keywords: | asset market equilibrium, individually rational attainable allocations, individually rational utility set, no-arbitrage prices, weak noarbitrage prices, no-arbitrage condition |
| JEL: | C62 D50 D81 D84 G1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:17-06&r=dcm |
| By: | Zolotareva, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kireeva, Anastasia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes the main problems encountered in the transition to the normative method of financing public tasks at all levels of government. It is shown that the public authorities, both at Federal and regional levels, comply with the requirements of article 69.2 of the Budgetary code of the Russian Federation does not fully. But the Ministry of education refers to the bodies, most fully realized ideas of the reform. Survey of universities shows that their attitude to the reform is not unequivocally negative, though 18% of respondents have noted deterioration of their financial positions as a result of reform. In the same time 30% of respondents said that their situation has deteriorated for reasons straightly not related to the reform. |
| Keywords: | state assignment; public institutions; correction factors; target costs |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031712&r=dcm |
| By: | Paul A. Gompers (Harvard Business School, Finance Unit); Sophie Q. Wang (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | With an overall lack of gender and ethnic diversity in the innovation sector documented in Gompers and Wang (2017), we ask the natural next question: Does increased diversity lead to better firm performances? In this paper, we attempt to answer this question using a unique dataset of the gender of venture capital partners' children. First, we find strong evidence that parenting more daughters leads to an increased propensity to hire female partners by venture capital firms. Second, using an instrumental variable set-up, we also show that improved gender diversity, induced by parenting more daughters, improves deal and fund performances. These effects concentrate overwhelmingly on the daughters of senior partners than junior partners. Taken together, our findings have profound implications on how the capital markets could function better with improved diversity. |
| JEL: | G02 G24 G30 L14 L20 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:17-103&r=dcm |
| By: | Setyo-Budi, Untung; mhd, Subandi; R, Agung |
| Abstract: | The economic turmoils started in 1997 had affected Indonesian textile industry and the textile product industries. Many factories had sent their workers home due to their difficulty to import cotton fibre as raw material. Indonesian production of cotton is just less than 4 % of industry requirement.Textile and textile product industry had contributed to national economic considerably and employment. Most Indonesian regions are not suitable for cotton. An experiment was conducted to detect water stress in Bandung, andhad been conducted in ( Bandung, Sumedang, Majalengka) 2000-2001, 2002 and 2007, the latest experiment in 2015.Response: physiological (leaf chlorophyll contents, leaf relative water content), growth and yields (number of stem, length of stem, diameter of stem, fine fibreweight,and fine fibre diameter)There were found that ramie plant is robust plant. Nitrogen and potassium are important nutrients for growth and better fibre quality. Textile industry and the product of textile industry contributed to the national revenue second only the the revenue from gas and petroleum. . |
| Keywords: | Key words : Economic, industry, ramie, textile. |
| JEL: | Q5 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79472&r=dcm |
| By: | Wilson, Nicholas; Pugatch, Todd |
| Abstract: | More than two of every five students who enrolled in college in 2007 failed to graduate by 2013. Peer tutoring services offer one approach toward improving learning outcomes in higher education. We conducted a randomized controlled experiment designed to increase take-up of university tutoring services. Brief, one-time messages increased tutoring take-up by 7 percentage points, or 23% of the control group mean. Attendance at multiple tutoring sessions increased by nearly the same amount, suggesting substantial changes in study habits in response to a simple and inexpensive intervention. We find little evidence of advertising-induced tutoring on learning outcomes. |
| Keywords: | peer tutoring,human capital investment,behavioral response to advertising,nudges,higher education |
| JEL: | D83 I23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:73&r=dcm |
| By: | Silva Lopes, Artur C.; Florin Zsurkis, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | We use first differenced logged quarterly series for the GDP of 29 countries and the euro area to assess the need to use nonlinear models to describe business cycle dynamic behaviour. Our approach is model (estimation)-free, based on testing only. We aim to maximize power to detect non-linearities and, simultaneously, we purport avoiding the pitfalls of data mining. The evidence we find does not support some descriptions because the presence of significant non-linearities is observed for 2/3 of the countries only. Linear models cannot be simply dismissed as they are frequently useful. Contrarily to common knowledge, nonlinear business cycle variation does not seem to be an universal, undisputable and clearly dominant stylized fact. This finding is particularly surprising for the U.S. case. Some support for nonlinear dynamics for some further countries is obtained indirectly, through unit root tests, but this is marginal to our study, based on indirectmethods only and can hardly be invoked to support nonlinearity in classical business cycles. |
| Keywords: | business cycles; nonlinear time series models; testing. |
| JEL: | C22 C51 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79413&r=dcm |
| By: | Joanna Wegrzyn (Cracow University of Economics, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Researchers traditionally assume that learning is a product of experience. In general it means that learning can only take place through the attempt to solve a problem and therefore only takes place during activity (Arrow, 1962). On the ground of organizational theory it has two implications. First we can agree that repeated activity requires less effort. Second we can argue that firms undertake activities, with which they have been the most successful in the past and that they expect to be the most successful in the future. The aim of the research is twofold. Firstly, this article aims to investigate if we can identify a relationship between the experience in PPP projects and the performance of initiatives of this kind. Secondly, the article aims to provide an interpretation of the relationship between experience and PPP performance. This research investigates factors influencing the survival of PPP projects in Poland over the period 2009-2015. Cox proportional hazard model is utilized to distinguish between PPPs that succeeded to the operation phase and those that were cancelled on the procurement stage. The research confirms the existence of a positive relationship between experience in PPP and the outcome of a PPP development. |
| Keywords: | survival analysis, public – private partnership (PPP), organizational learning, investment decisions |
| JEL: | C41 D01 H54 L32 O22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no139&r=dcm |
| By: | Jaroslaw Michal Nazarczuk (University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland); Anna Krajewska (University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The internationalisation of economies, which foreign direct investments significantly contribute to, affects the growth of regional and local economies. Their choice of location is the topic of frequent debates among scholars, politicians and regional/local authorities. Given the scarcity of empirical evidence on the locational determinants of foreign direct investments at the local level of analysis (LAU 1) in Poland, and the time that has passed since similar analyses were run on a regional scale, we conduct a study investigating the locational determinants of FDIs in Poland between 2011 and 2015.We use a unique dataset comprising data available in public statistics and information gathered from computations run using GIS software indicating the average distances of districts to selected points of interest (such as the border, motorway/express road, airport, railway line, special economic zone, etc.). The utilisation of GIS-based data is a significant improvement to the past research, which tended to use dummy variables in this regard. To identify the key locational determinants, we run a series of negative binomial regressions, due to the count character of the dependent variable.The results prove that a significant part of the spatial distribution of FDIs in Poland can be attributed to factors originating from New Economic Geography, whereas the rest stems from the heterogeneity of local areas. The lower and more detailed scale of the analysis brings to light new facts on the choice of location as compared to previous studies, especially regarding the role of SEZs or proximity to agglomerations. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investments (FDIs), location determinants, regional and spatial distribution of FDI, LAU 1, Poland |
| JEL: | F23 F23 R12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no84&r=dcm |
| By: | Mathias Beiglboeck; Alexander Cox; Martin Huesmann |
| Abstract: | The Skorokhod Embedding Problem (SEP) is one of the classical problems in the study of stochastic processes, with applications in many different fields (cf.~ the surveys \cite{Ob04,Ho11}). Many of these applications have natural multi-marginal extensions leading to the \emph{(optimal) multi-marginal Skorokhod problem} (MSEP). Some of the first papers to consider this problem are \cite{Ho98b, BrHoRo01b, MaYo02}. However, this turns out to be difficult using existing techniques: only recently a complete solution was be obtained in \cite{CoObTo15} establishing an extension of the Root construction, while other instances are only partially answered or remain wide open. In this paper, we extend the theory developed in \cite{BeCoHu14} to the multi-marginal setup which is comparable to the extension of the optimal transport problem to the multi-marginal optimal transport problem. As for the one-marginal case, this viewpoint turns out to be very powerful. In particular, we are able to show that all classical optimal embeddings have natural multi-marginal counterparts. Notably these different constructions are linked through a joint geometric structure and the classical solutions are recovered as particular cases. Moreover, our results also have consequences for the study of the martingale transport problem as well as the peacock problem. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.09505&r=dcm |
| By: | Kurdin, Alexander A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper assesses the industrial policy of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union in the XVIII-XX centuries. in terms of their effects on competition. The pro-competitive and anti-competitive practices of industrial policy are identified by the economic and historical analysis, the reasons for the application of differenet types of measures and their impact are identified and assessed. The author shows that despite the long tradition of selective industrial policy, the pro-competitive instruments have also been an important element of the Russian government's policies in different historical periods and often led to relatively successful results. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021703&r=dcm |
| By: | Morikawa, Masayuki |
| Abstract: | This study, using original survey data of 10,000 individuals, analyzes the possible impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics on employment. The first interest of this study is to ascertain, from the viewpoint of workers, what types of worker characteristics are associated with the perception of risk of jobs being replaced by the development of AI and robotics. The second interest is to identify, from the viewpoint of consumers, what types of services are likely to be replaced by AI and robotics. The results suggest that malleable/adaptable high skills acquired through higher education, particularly in science and engineering, are complementary with new technologies such as AI and robotics. At the same time, occupation-specific skills acquired by attending professional schools or holding occupational licenses, particularly those related to human-intensive services, are less likely to be replaced by AI and robotics. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence,robotics,skill,household production |
| JEL: | J24 O33 D12 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:71&r=dcm |
| By: | Amy Ellen Schwartz (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Michah W. Rothbart (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of extending free school lunch to all students, regardless of income, on academic performance in New York City middle schools. Using a difference-in-difference design and unique longitudinal, student level data, we derive credibly causal estimates of the impacts of “Universal Free Meals” (UFM) on test scores in English Language Arts (ELA) and mathematics, and participation in school lunch. We find UFM increases academic performance by as much as 0.059 standard deviations in math and 0.083 in ELA for non-poor students, with smaller, statistically significant effects of 0.032 and 0.027 standard deviations in math and ELA for poor students. Further, UFM increases participation in school lunch by roughly 11.0 percentage points for non-poor students and 5.4 percentage points for poor students. We then investigate the academic effects of school lunch participation per se, using UFM as an instrumental variable. Results indicate that increases in school lunch participation improve academic performance for both poor and non-poor students; an additional lunch every two weeks increases test scores by roughly 0.08 standard deviations in math and 0.07 standard deviations in ELA. Finally, we explore potential unintended consequences for student weight outcomes, finding no evidence that UFM increases probability of obesity or overweight, or BMI. Results are robust to an array of alternative assumptions about sample and specifications. |
| Keywords: | School Food, Academic Performance, Free Lunch, Childhood Obesity |
| JEL: | I24 I38 H52 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:203&r=dcm |
| By: | Arkadiusz Œwiadek (University of Zielona Gora, Poland) |
| Abstract: | In the literature, there is a discussion on the importance of the spatial distans to the user in the context innovation activity. Although, most of this kind of studies concentrate on exporting enterprises and compare them to domestic ones. Exporting activity is very important for catching-up countries, because of technology transfer in its background. The aim of this paper is to determine whether the innovative activity in Poland’s industrial system is a consequence of close interactions (local and regional), or perhaps conditioned by the imperative of functioning on the national and international market? Main hypothesis was to claim that on the current development level of Poland, the relationship between the range of sales and innovation activities are different from those in the more developed countries. Empirical studies was created in 2006-2012 as a result of the systematic collection of questionnaires filled by industry enterprises in Poland from all regions (5209 correct fulfilled questionnaires). Methodical analysis was based on the theory of probability - probit modeling, because dependent variables were binary (0 or 1). Local and regional environment is not conducive to stimulating innovation activity, but national spatial is a sufficient space, but high intensity observed only when the company has been working on the international market. It means, that the industry maturity level in Poland is good enough for creating a domestic innovation environment. This kind of an aggregation level should be stimulating by the government innovation policy. |
| Keywords: | innovation, industry, system, country, sale range |
| JEL: | L52 O25 P51 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no129&r=dcm |
| By: | Tom Broekel Author-X-Name-First: Tom; Wladimir Mueller Author-X-Name-First: Wladimir |
| Keywords: | proximities, knowledge networks, gatekeeper, R&D subsidies, critical links |
| JEL: | D85 L14 O33 R10 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1711&r=dcm |
| By: | Maleva, Tatyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polyakova, Aleksandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Makarentseva, Alla (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this article the practical aspects of the implementation of social policy in the Russian Federation in the most significant areas, such as demography and migration, labor market and income are revealed on the basis of the monitoring of socio-economic status and health of the population in the period from January 2015 to August 2016. Emphasis is placed on considering the dynamics of consumer prices and their impact on incomes and poverty, access to housing and credit activity. An estimantion of the position of the household sector, social well-being of the population and the perception of individuals of the processes occurring in the economy was perfomed with the help of sociological inquiry. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021710&r=dcm |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | This report examines how different people and groups experience accessibility in cities. It reviews the latest research findings, methodologies and data sources on urban accessibility and discusses how better data and computing power can enhance accessibility analysis and mapping. The findings provide policy makers with guidance on how to make it easier for citizens to physically reach services and opportunities that matter to them, and to help build more equitable and sustainable and economically viable cities. The work for this report was carried out in the context of a project initiated and funded by the International Transport Forum's Corporate Partnership Board (CPB). CPB projects are designed to enrich policy discussion with a business perspective. Led by the ITF, work is carried out in a collaborative fashion in working groups consisting of CPB member companies, external experts and ITF staff. |
| Date: | 2017–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:35-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Jorge Luis García; James J. Heckman; Anna L. Ziff |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates gender differences in life-cycle impacts across multiple domains of an influential enriched early childhood program targeted toward disadvantaged children that was evaluated by the method of random assignment. We assess the impacts of the program on promoting or alleviating population differences in outcomes by gender. For many outcomes, boys benefit relatively more from high-quality center childcare programs compared to low-quality programs. For them, home care, even in disadvantaged environments, is more beneficial than lower-quality center childcare for many outcomes. This phenomenon is not found for girls. We investigate the sources of the gender differentials in impacts. |
| JEL: | C93 I28 J13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23412&r=dcm |
| By: | Vlada Vitunskiene (Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Lithuania); Evaldas Serva (Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | For a long time before the Russian import ban, Russia was the second most important destination for Lithuania's agricultural exports (after the EU common market), especially for processed dairy and meat products, and edible vegetables. Russia imposed a ban on most agricultural products from the EU in August 2014. Moreover, a year earlier, Russia closed its market for Lithuanian dairy products citing safety concerns. Among the EU countries, the economic impact of the Russian import ban of agricultural products may be most acute in Lithuania. Purpose of the article is to examine the Russian import ban consequences for Lithuanian agricultural products export and the agri-food industry responses to the Russian import restrictions. The examination has been based on trade and production performance indicators. Time series and spatial analysis of agricultural export flows by HS and the food production. Due to the Russian embargo Lithuania’s agricultural production export worth sharply declined in 2014-2015. In volume terms, Lithuania’s export of cheese, cream, yogurt and other fermented milk products was significantly lower in 2016 than in 2013, although, butter export has increased, whereas a higher share of raw milk was processed into butter. The production profile of the dairy processing industry has been changing since 2014. Processors have increased output of products like butter and skimmed milk powder which can be sold or stored within the EU intervention programs or exported to alternative markets within the EU or beyond. In 2015-2016, the export of banned agricultural products has been reoriented towards new markets. The profitability of dairy processors decreased in 2014. However, in 2015, main dairy processors increased the profitability again due to the greatly reduced farm-gate milk prices. Despite the drop of farm-gate milk prices, majority of farmers are continuing milk production. Some of the farms completely switched to local food markets |
| Keywords: | agri-food products export, processing industry, Russian import ban, profitability |
| JEL: | F14 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no136&r=dcm |
| By: | Veronica Kostenko (Laboratory for Comparative Social Research, Higher School of Economics, Russia); Eduard Ponarin; Musa Shteiwi; Olga Strebkova |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on transformations of gender attitudes in a set of Arab societies covered by the Arab Barometer. We analyze age and cohort differences in thirteen countries using generalized additive modeling (GAM). We argue that stagnation or even retrogression of gender attitudes in some societies may be caused in part by an ideological shift of the 1970s–1980s, from largely secular and socialist-oriented national movements of the 1950s–1960s to the more conservative period often associated with the rise of political Islam. On the other hand, the youngest cohorts in those societies that have always promoted conservative gender attitudes are getting somewhat more liberal, although they remain slightly less gender egalitarian compared to other societies. We test our assumptions using the example of Yemen that was divided into two parts between 1967 and 1990: The South supported by the Soviet Union and the North influenced by Saudi Arabia and the Western bloc. We trace the support for gender egalitarianism across generations in the two parts of Yemen and show that the secular socialist ideology made a profound imprint on the attitudes of a whole generation and made those who were in their twenties back in the 1960s more egalitarian than the young people these days. The same is true for the other countries of the region that had some socialist experience. |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1105&r=dcm |
| By: | Mkrtchyan, Nikita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Florinskaya, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | It is believed that the existing level of spatial mobility in Russia is low, which negatively affects the country's socio-economic development. At different levels - federal and regional - measures are being taken to help citizens move to other areas, but are they effective? During the focus groups, interviews with managers and migrants, we tried to study the widespread practices of in-country migration, identify the main barriers to it, and formulate measures that would enhance the possibility of free movement of citizens for a better realization of individual human capital. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031714&r=dcm |
| By: | Justina Banioniene (Kaunas University of Technology, School of Economics and Business); Lina Dagiliene (Kaunas University of Technology, School of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Circular economy in the most recent scientific literature and conducted research is recognized as one of the most advanced models of sustainable economic growth, ensuring competitiveness and opening new businesses with the potential to offer long-lasting economic, environmental and social benefits. Investment in technological innovations may be a way to implement the principle of circular economy at micro (company) level. However, there is a gap in the literature in a systemic research of circular economy technology definition and classification of technologies in the context of creating eco-design products and achieving zero-waste production. Thus this theoretical paper provides a contribution to fill this gap. The aim of this theoretical paper is to define the concept of circular economy technology and to classify these technologies. The methods of systemic, comparative and logical scientific literature analysis, constructive research approach were used in the research. This study provides an extensive review of the scientific literature, with the purpose of grasping the concept of circular economy technology at micro (company) level: origins, definitions, classification, modelling of possibilities to gain, adapt or create circular economy technologies for circular economy implementation. Results evidence that technologies can be classified into basic technologies and technologies to implement circular economy, and the latter could be separated into technologies for eco-design products and for future manufacturing technologies as been detailed in the paper. This research could be useful for preparing government regulation in order to enable the implementation of circular economy, forecasting the need government investment and the institutional efforts to advise and convince companies towards actions implementing circular economy. |
| Keywords: | circular economy, technology, circular economy technology, classification. |
| JEL: | O3 Q5 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no9&r=dcm |
| By: | Trunin, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Segei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Perevyshin, Yuri (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Egorov, D.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper studied the factors of regional differentiation of price levels and inflation in the Russian regions. The law of one price for certain goods in the Russian regions is true for a group of products that can be called homogeneous: their quality and functional properties do not differ between regions. For 70% goods considered the hypothesis of one price was rejected. The extent of price differences in the Russian regions are declining, but still remain significant. In 2015, the cost of living in the cheapest and most expensive region differed 2.5 times. The reasons for price differences in the Russian regions include the level of per capita income and the degree of remoteness of the region from the rest. Domestic factors, determined on the basis of macroeconomic indicators, explained about 53% of the variation of the regional rate of inflation in 1996-2015. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021708&r=dcm |
| By: | Farne, Matteo; Vouldis, Angelos |
| Abstract: | The paper identifies the business models followed by banks in the euro area utilising a proprietary dataset collected in the context of the supervisory reporting of the Single Supervisory Mechanism. The concept of a ‘business model’ has been neglected by economic theory and is defined here with respect to the set of activities performed by banks. We adopt a clustering methodology to provide evidence for the existence of distinct business models. Clustering is combined with dimensionality reduction optimally, given the nature of our dataset which features a large number of dimensions for each bank (‘fat’ data). The method produces a level and a contrast factor which are intuitive in the economic sense. Four business models are identified alongside a set of ‘outlier’ banks that follow unique business models. The risk and performance indicators of each cluster are examined and evidence is provided that they follow distinct statistical distributions. JEL Classification: C63, G21, L21, L25 |
| Keywords: | banking sector, business models, cluster analysis, single supervisory mechanism |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172070&r=dcm |
| By: | Katarzyna Wierzbicka (Wydzial Ekonomii i Zarzadzania Uniwersytet w Bialymstoku, Polska) |
| Abstract: | Venture capital funds are very important in the development of innovative activity of economic entities. The funds contribute to closing the equity gap in the financing of innovative companies. The purpose of the study is to show the role that venture capital funds play in the development and functioning of business entities in EU companies. DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis), a non-parametric decision making unit (DMU), was used to examine the relationship. The study covered the 2010 and 2015 periods. The results confirm the assumption that venture capital funds operate most effectively in the most innovative economies of the EU. |
| Keywords: | innovativation, venture capital, Innovative activity, efficiency |
| JEL: | O16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no140&r=dcm |
| By: | Gabriela Wronowska (Cracow University of Economics, Poland) |
| Abstract: | During the transition period in Poland, its labour market changed dynamically. Many new phenomena which the Polish economy had never seen before manifested themselves. The society showed greater interest in higher education and the market for education services expanded, increasing the number of colleges and universities, especially private ones. This helped the spread of higher education, which for years determined the level of human capital represented by the supply of labour. Today’s labour market in Poland is showing signs of imbalance. One of the reasons involves overeducation. The phenomenon has been known since the 1970s. It was then described for the first time in pertinent literature, with the US where overeducation occurred on a large scale and where it had a number of adverse effects across the entire economy having been used as an example. It seems important to understand and analyse the reasons for the emergence and perpetuation of this phenomenon on the Polish labour market and to indicate its implication. The paper aims to present and discuss overeducation in terms of selected economic theories, identify its causes in Poland and further to determine the economic and social implications of the persistence of the phenomenon in the long run. The paper consists of a theoretical part developed based on selected Polish and English-language literature. The empirical material used in the paper comes from latent data originating in domestic and EU statistical databases, and is further partly sourced out from the author’s own research, and data collected by other researchers. Based on the author’s analysis, it can be concluded that overeducation is a complex phenomenon. It is possible to identify several reasons for its occurrence and long-drawn persistence on the Polish labour market. Some of the reasons have to do with the dynamic growth of the labour market and the educational services sector, society’s desire to gain higher education, structural mismatches in the labour market and a common education policy at the EU level. Overedutaion has far-reaching consequences, both for the entire economy and the single participant of the labour market alike. The fact of its occurrence determines the processes taking place in the labour market, especially those related to employment. |
| Keywords: | labour market, overeducation, human capital |
| JEL: | A11 A14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no144&r=dcm |
| By: | Andreasen, Martin M. (Aarhus University); Christensen, Jens H. E. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Riddell, Simon (Amazon) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields that accounts for liquidity risk in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The novel feature of our model is to identify liquidity risk directly from individual TIPS prices by accounting for the tendency that TIPS, like most fixed-income securities, go into buy-and-hold investors’ portfolios as time passes. We find a sizable and countercyclical TIPS liquidity premium, which greatly helps our model in matching TIPS prices. Accounting for liquidity risk also improves the model’s ability to forecast inflation and match inflation surveys, although none of these series are included in the estimation. |
| Date: | 2017–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2017-11&r=dcm |
| By: | Magdalena Olczyk (Politechnika Gdanska, Poland); Aleksandra Kordalska (Politechnika Gdanska, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Growth model in CEE countries has based on a massive inflow of direct foreign investments, especially in manufacturing, from the onset of the transformation. This resulted in a substantial share of manufacturing goods in total exports and a high ranking position of some CEE countries among the most industrialized economies in the world. The main objective of this paper is to compare the determinants of the international competitiveness, measured by the net exports of the manufacturing sectors in the Czech and Polish economies, by using the database of 13 manufacturing sub-sectors in 1995-2011. The authors research the question of how much foreign and domestic demand, the level of labour costs, the level of sector innovation intensity, the level of sector openness to foreign markets as well as sectoral labour productivity influence the changes in trade balance. Our approach is based on employing an error correction model and SURE model to disaggregated sectoral manufacturing data. The results of the analysis conducted show substantial differences in the roles particular variables play in explaining the net exports in individual sectors. For the majority of Polish and Czech manufacturing sub-sectors, generation of positive trade balance is determined by relative demand growth. An increasing labour productivity influences heavily a positive trade balance of Polish goods in majority of sub-sectors, however, a key factor in Czech sub-sectors is decreasing unit labour costs. The results of the analysis indicate mostly a greater impact of the researched factors on net exports in long rather than short term and the better capacity of the Czech economy to correct deviations from the equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | CEE economies, net exports, international competitiveness, manufacturing, error correction mode |
| JEL: | F40 C23 F14 O14 L60 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no46&r=dcm |
| By: | ARATA Yoshiyuki; ONOZAKI Tamotsu |
| Abstract: | The existing literature has shown that there are several statistical regularities in industrial dynamics, which are an important clue to understanding the underlying mechanism. This paper focuses on market share changes and shows that its distribution has some remarkable properties. Because of the constrained nature of market share, namely, the sum must be unity, this paper applies the recently developed method called compositional data analysis (CDA) to market share data. We find the distribution does not follow a Gaussian but instead a tent-shaped distribution with a fatter tail, which is closely related with the findings of firm growth rate distribution. With some exceptions, this statistical feature can be observed across different sectors. Furthermore, this property can be observed when we focus on the relation between the top subgroup and lower-ranked firms. This distribution shape implies that market share growth cannot be described by an accumulation of small shocks. Rather, lumpy jumps that transform the market structure are crucial in market share dynamics. Put differently, radical change in market structure is a relatively frequent phenomenon. Such implications based on statistical properties of observed data help us further investigate industrial dynamics theoretically. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17076&r=dcm |
| By: | Nihad Aliyev (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney); Xue-Zhong He (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of informational ambiguity and attitude to it on security prices. Attention is focused on equilibria in which a market maker has an ambiguity in his probability assessment. We show that the equilibrium ambiguous bid-ask spread can be decomposed into the probabilistic spread and an “ambiguity premium/discount” component characterizing the ambiguity aversion/seeking of the market maker. In particular, for a sufficiently ambiguity averse market maker, the bid-ask spread widens with the informational ambiguity of the market maker, which provides an explanation to drying liquidity and price inefficiency during financial turmoils. An extension to different trade sizes shows that informed traders are more likely to trade large orders when there is a major ambiguous shock to the economy. |
| Keywords: | market microstructure; informational ambiguity; Choquet expectation; generalized Bayesian updating; non-additive probability |
| JEL: | G14 D81 D82 |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:rpaper:383&r=dcm |
| By: | Silvia Gardini (University of Bologna, Department of Management Studies); F. Marta L. Di Lascio (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Faculty of Economics and Management); Franco Visani (University of Bologna, Department of Management Studies) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the impact of the institutional context and the regulation on the disclosure of non-GAAP indicators (NGIs), with a focus on the adoption of NGIs for opportunistic purposes. We firstly discuss the concept of opportunism and the approaches to discover opportunistic behaviours in the adjustment process. Then, we define a new procedure in three steps to highlight opportunistic behaviours. Based on a sample of 120 international listed companies, from 23 countries included in the S&P Global Oil Index, we employ logistic panel regression models to test our hypotheses about the role of the institutional context in affecting opportunism. First results suggest that while strong institutional contexts (developed market, high-quality legal system, protection for minority shareholders, common law system) reduce the disclosure of NGIs, they increase opportunistic behaviours. Moreover, the introduction of a regulation on NGIs increases the general disclosure of adjusted measures, but it does not moderate the opportunistic use of NGIs. Our research contributes to the non-GAAP literature providing a practical approach for measuring opportunism in NGIs disclosure. At the same time, the results provide useful insights to regulators and standard setters about the role and the effectiveness of regulations on NGIs in different institutional contexts. |
| Keywords: | non-GAAP financial measures, institutional factors, voluntary disclosure, opportunistic disclosure, informative disclosure, stock market regulation |
| JEL: | M40 M41 M48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps42&r=dcm |
| By: | Paula Gil (Universidad Complutense de Madrid); Francisco Martí (Banco de España); Richard Morris (European Central Bank); Javier J. Pérez (Banco de España); Roberto Ramos (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the GDP impact of legislated tax changes in Spain using a newly constructed narrative record for the period 1986-2015. Our baseline estimates suggest that a 1% of GDP increase in exogenous taxes depresses output by around 1.3% after one year, this negative effect fading away at more distant horizons. We also find that the effect of changes in indirect taxes are larger and that, following a tax increase, investment reacts more than consumption. Overall, our set of estimates is consistent with negative output effects triggered by tax increases, yet the quantitative effects are subject to non-negligible uncertainty that is refected in wide confidence bands, in line with the extant literature for other countries. |
| Keywords: | tax shocks, narrative record, fiscal policy, GDP growth |
| JEL: | E32 E62 H20 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1721&r=dcm |
| By: | José-María Da-Rocha (ITAM and Universidad de Vigo); Javier García-Cutrín (Universidad de Vigo); Raul Prellezo (AZTI); Jaume Sempere (El Colegio de México) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of reducing a subsidy on fuel in a general equilibrium model for a fishery with heterogeneous fishing plants (vessels). It considers the impact of the stock effect, which determines the participation of fishing plants in a likely increased stock abundance. In equilibrium, the productivity of the fleet is endogenous as it depends on the stock of fish along the equilibrium path. The model concludes that any impact of a fuel subsidy drop will depend on the stock effect. If that effect is large, fishing firms will benefit from the stock recovery and the elimination of the subsidy will increase future returns on investment. The model is particularized to industrial shrimp fisheries in Mexico. It is shown that the complete elimination of a subsidy increases biomass, capitalization, marginal productivity, and consumption and reduces inequality when the effect of the induced increase in the stock is considered. However, if that effect is not considered capital and consumption decrease, and inequality increases, increasing the social costs of a fuel subsidy drop. |
| Keywords: | subsidies, general equilibrium model, fisheries, social costs |
| JEL: | Q22 Q28 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2017-02&r=dcm |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | In Japan, uncertainty over the social security and tax system is termed as a source of stagnant household consumption at the aggregate level. This study presents empirical evidence on this issue by using original survey data of 10,000 individuals. The results indicate that individuals are highly uncertain over the future course of social security policies, and the impacts of such uncertainty on their life are perceived to be large. The policy uncertainty induces increased saving driven by a precautionary motive, and the effect is prominent for low-income individuals. These results suggest that improving long-term predictability in the social security and tax system may contribute toward stimulating household consumption. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17075&r=dcm |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | This study presents empirical findings on productivity-wage gaps among certain groups of Japanese employees. More specifically, we estimate the productivity and wage equations of part-time workers, females, and employees with a university education in order to determine whether they are underpaid or overpaid relative to their productivity. The results indicate that the wage levels of part-time workers and females reflect their contribution to firm productivity. Since the estimations are based on mean values, overpaid and underpaid workers may co-exist at the micro level. However, the parity between mean productivity and wages suggests that firms do not discriminate against these types of employees, and set wages efficiently under market competition. In order to reduce the overall inequality in wages, investments in human capital to enhance the productivity of the lower end of the productivity distribution are essential. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17077&r=dcm |
| By: | Qaadny Amir (Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poland) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the number of new entrepreneurs has been growing particularly among young people and minorities. The young minority entrepreneur is a distinct sub-set within the category of young entrepreneurs because he faces additional social and cultural barriers, limited economic and resource access and availability, discrimination and even outright racism not experienced by mainstream entrepreneurs. In this review, we have found it necessary to distinguish between two groups of minorities: the ‘immigrant minority’ and the ‘local ethnic minority’ who might or might not be a numerical minority but who live under the constraints of a ruling hegemony, a distinction which has profound consequences on entrepreneurial activity. To provide an overview of the updated understanding of the young minority entrepreneur as well as to refine some critiques. This article is based on a review of nearly one hundred academic papers, reports, and books in the field. Entrepreneurship can be the result either of a free positive choice or a necessary escape strategy of survival for those who have no option of salaried work opportunities. It brings into play personal traits, education and environmental support or constraints. |
| Keywords: | young entrepreneurs; minority; personal and traits characteristics; socio-cultural aspects; environmental constraints |
| JEL: | L26 J15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no96&r=dcm |
| By: | Guanais, Luiz Felipe Poli; Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto; Sheng, Hsia Hua |
| Abstract: | As an approach to determining the degree of integration of the Brazilian economy, this paper seeks to test the explanatory power of the Goldman Sachs Model for the expected returns by a foreign investor in the Brazilian market during the past eleven years (2004-2014). Using data for the stocks of 57 of the most actively traded firms at the BM&FBovespa, it begins by testing directly the degree of integration of the Brazilian economy during this period, in an attempt to better understand the context in which the model has been used. In sequence, in an indirect test of the Goldman Sachs model, the risk factor betas (market risk and country risk) of the sample stocks were estimated and a panel regression of expected stock returns on these betas was performed. It was found that country risk is not a statistically significant explanation of expected returns, indicating that it is being added in an ad hoc fashion by market practitioners to their cost of equity calculations. Thus, although there is evidence of a positive and significant relationship between systematic risk and return, the results for country risk demonstrate that the Goldman Sachs Model was not a satisfactory explanation of expected returns in the Brazilian market in the past eleven years, leading us to question the validity of its application in practice. By adding a size premium factor to the model, there is evidence of a negative and significant relationship between companies’ size and return, although country risk remains not satisfactory to explain stock expected returns. |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:447&r=dcm |
| By: | Zanna Cernostana (Baltic International Academy, Latvia) |
| Abstract: | The development of higher education (HE) is amongst topical issues. The modern society recognises that the most valuable capital is a human being with his/her intellectual potential and this has become the main resource for social and economic development. The important component of the HE systems of many countries is formed by Private Higher Education Institutions (PHEIs), although in each case they have national peculiarities. Today PHEIs undergo difficulties inherent to the entire system of education. The problem of financial sustainability and efficiency of HEIs is becoming urgent. In this context, the most important issue is to deal with developing approaches for quantifying financial sustainability and identifying the indicators of its evaluation. To analyse the financial sustainability of the private sector of HE in Latvia and justify the necessity of an integrated indicator system for financial sustainability evaluation. Include methods of economic and statistic analyses, methods of the analysis and synthesis of economic information, methods of grouping, comparisons, classification, summarising, description and prediction. One of the major issues is the existing gap between the assessment of financial activities of a higher education institution (HEI) and its education activities, which is asserted by accreditation standards; according to these standards, financial and education activities are autonomous entities, hardly interconnected. |
| Keywords: | private higher education; financial sustainability; financial ratio system |
| JEL: | I22 M21 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no17&r=dcm |
| By: | Nguyen-Huu, Thanh Tam; Nguyen-Khac, Minh |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the impacts of export-platform foreign direct investment (FDI) on backward linkages. First, in a three-country model, these impacts are explained through the competition effect and the demand effect. Whenever the former is stronger than the latter, the investment has a negative impact on the level of backward linkages and conversely. Otherwise, the level of backward linkages is also affected by third country size, local content requirement, and the power of trade agreements between the host and the third countries. Second, in the case of the Vietnamese supporting industries between 2000 and 2012, export-platform FDI generates a negative effect. Moreover, local content requirement, and trade agreements between Vietnam and third countries (bilateral trade agreement with the U.S. and entry of Vietnam into the WTO) positively impact the level of backward linkages whereas third country size has an ambiguous impact. |
| Keywords: | export-platform FDI,backward linkages,local content requirement,third country size,power of trade agreements,Vietnam |
| JEL: | F15 F23 O1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201721&r=dcm |
| By: | Mark Craddock (School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we demonstrate the various ways in which Lie symmetry group and integral transform methods can be combined and applied to solve some important types of problems in the theory of diffusion processes. We may compute various kinds of transition probability densities, as well as densities for diffusions which are conditioned to be either reflecting or absorbed at some boundary. Reflection and absorption for squared Bessel processes on the line x = a is studied. We also show how various first hitting times may be computed. We study some higher dimensional diffusions and show how transform methods can be used to extend some one dimensional results to higher dimensions. We also produce a general formula for the sums of certain one dimensional processes. Finally, we introduce what seems to be a new class of processes which have nearly exact densities. |
| Keywords: | Lie symmetry groups; fundamental solutions; transition densities |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:rpaper:380&r=dcm |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | This report examines how cities can manage the transition to shared mobility services. It expands on two earlier studies that looked at the citywide impact of replacing private cars with shared services, but did not address the question of implementation. Based again on mobility data for the city of Lisbon, Portugal, this report assesses issues around the scaling up of shared mobility services to the whole of the Metropolitan area and of their stepwise introduction. It also analyses the impacts of these services on the use of existing high-capacity public transport and on access to jobs, schools or health facilities across the whole study area, and explores how shared mobility can improve accessibility for users with impairments. The work for this report was carried out in the context of a project initiated and funded by the International Transport Forum's Corporate Partnership Board (CPB). CPB projects are designed to enrich policy discussion with a business perspective. Led by the ITF, work is carried out in a collaborative fashion in working groups consisting of CPB member companies, external experts and ITF staff. |
| Date: | 2017–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:33-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Dobronravova, Elizaveta (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | On 1 January 2015, the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union between the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation entered into force. Since January 2, 2015, the Treaty on the Accession of the Republic of Armenia to the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union has entered into force, and since August 6, 2015 - the Agreement on Accession of the Kyrgyz Republic to the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union. The contract implies the creation of an economic union, within the framework of which it is ensured the creation of unified markets for goods and services, common markets for factors of production, as well as the implementation by member countries of agreements on harmonization of monetary, fiscal and monetary policies. Objective of this work is to analyze the factors affecting well-being of Russia and Countries of the EEA in the processes of economic integration. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031710&r=dcm |
| By: | Chiara Carboni; Elisabetta Iossa; Gianpiero Mattera |
| Abstract: | The international dimension of public procurement has gained in importance in the last decade and has attracted the attention of economist and policy makers. A number of trade agreements were signed with the intention to remove barriers to procurement markets and favour entry of foreign firms and products. However, empirical evidence shows that, despite the existence of trade agreements, discrimination towards foreign firms still applies in a number of countries around the world. In this paper, we discuss the methodologies used in the economic literature for the identification of overt and covert barriers to public tenders and some empirical evidence from the EU, TED database. We stress the importance of collecting high quality data for meliorating the ability of international traders to detect procurement barriers. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination in procurement, international trade; procurement barriers. |
| JEL: | F13 H57 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcu:iefewp:iefewp92&r=dcm |
| By: | Sylwia Saczynska-Sokol (Bialystok University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Various and complicated reasons for belonging to the NEET category, resulting largely from young people’s personal and family circumstances, cause that the activation programmes undertaken by public employment services, both in the professional and educational sphere, prove inadequate. Despite the fact that labour market instruments dedicated to young people represent a wide range of possibilities for supporting them in combating professional and educational inactivity, the background of their problems requires new actions that should be undertaken by labour market institutions and their partners. Taking the above into consideration, the aim of this study is to identify the challenges faced by the public employment services and other labour market institutions in the area of activating youth experiencing the most difficult situation in the labour market. The article is based partly on the results of quantitative and qualitative research, conducted in the framework of the project implemented by the Provincial Labour Office in Bialystok Podlasie open to young people, financed by Operational Programme Knowledge Education Development (PO WER). The results of the study have led to the identification of necessary actions which should be undertaken by labour market institutions to support young people representing the NEET generation. These actions can be classified into different categories. They include preventing inclusion into the NEET group, developing the most effective solutions in the area of getting in touch with this group of young people and supporting them as well as creating a culture of cooperation for their benefit. The study has also revealed the need to carry out in-depth research of the NEET population. |
| Keywords: | labor market, labor market institutions, public employment services, NEETs. |
| JEL: | R23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no123&r=dcm |
| By: | Malgorzata Galecka (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wroclawiu); Katarzyna Smolny (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wroclawiu) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is the efficiency evaluation of statutory subsidies granted to cultural institutions in the context of subsidizing rules of these institutions. From the economic point of view, the financial analysis of cultural institutions shows economic inefficiency of all institutions. In the majority these are institutions that live on thanks to income from the organizer’s subsidies, generating low own revenue in relation to incurred costs. The authors make the argument that subsidized cultural institutions in Poland report heterogeneous financial results despite the fact that their financial management is based on the same financing rules. The authors assume that similar amounts of transfers should provide a comparable range of performed tasks, and thus the access to goods and services supplied. The subject of the study of measuring the economic efficiency of the expenditure of cultural institution are public theatres and music institutions in big cities. The object of the study was limited to cultural institutions whose core business include performing arts.In the paper, while fulfilling the set objective of the study and while verifying the hypothesis graphical method, descriptive statistics, as well as methods of statistical inference have been used. It should be emphasized that despite homogenous principles of granting statutory subsidies, the economic efficiency of individual cultural institutions of culture is diverse. Lack of correlation between the level of financial results, the level of the statuary subsidies and of thetotal costs of a cultural institution leads to conclusion that more factors in this field should be investigated. |
| Keywords: | economic efficiency;public expenditures;cultural institutions; financing rules, subsidies |
| JEL: | H7 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no27&r=dcm |
| By: | Kotsyubinskiy, Vladimir A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Komarov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Voloshinskaya, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This article dissects technological development theory of industrial company and organizes development factor. It was introduced the concept of technological industrial development inquiry based not only on elaboration of a production process but also on scientific and technical world patterns utilization. Technological development index and senior ratings were analyzed, the individual rating of the major russian technology companies was proposed. Some references of creation world-class technology leader or so-called Russian national champions are given in conclusion. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021709&r=dcm |
| By: | INUI Tomohiko; ITO Yukiko; KAWAKAMI Atsushi; MA Xin Xin; NAGASHIMA Masaru; ZHAO Meng |
| Abstract: | Health checkups have been commonly considered as an important measure to improve population health. The Japanese government has urged health insurers to promote health checkups, including the specific health checkups (SHC) which was recently implemented in 2008 to cover the whole population between ages 40 and 74. However, there remains a large gap between the actual prevalence and the goals set by the government. Using the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions (CSLC) survey data from 1995 to 2013 in Japan, we conduct an empirical study to answer three questions: Which factors determinate the prevalence of general health checkups in Japan at the regional level? Which factors affect the decisions on taking health checkups at the individual level? Does SHC have any effects on various health outcomes? Our results suggest that there is a great regional disparity in the prevalence of health checkups in Japan, even after accommodating for various socio-economic factors. In addition, despite the government's promotion policies, little improvement is observed in the prevalence of health checkups from 1995 to 2013. Moreover, at the individual level, the participation rate for health checkups by non-regular/part-time workers and by the enrollees of the National Health Insurance is lower than that of their counterparts. Lastly, although SHC since 2008 appeared to have a positive effect on the probability of taking health checkups, so far it has little effect on health status, smoking behavior, and medical expenses. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17082&r=dcm |
| By: | Katarzyna Samek (Nicolaus Copernicus Univeristy, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Competitive counts the provider that rendered by the customer service better than the other and through the quality strategy overcomes the competitors and reaches a commercial success. In view of the particular attention should be paid to the quality of the service which significantly affect the customer loyalty. The aim of this study was to investigate the importance of quality in customer service individual commercial banks. For this purpose a SERVQUAL using the questionnaire especially by which was calculated difference between expectations and insight from the consumers on the areas being audited quality customer service. Research background: Cooperative Bank in Kalisz Pomorski (Pomeranian province), Bank of Environmental Protection in Bydgoszcz (Kujawsko - Pomorskie), and a third bank, who reserved to publish their data in research. Purpose of the article: The aim of this study was to investigate the importance of quality in customer service individual commercial banks. Methodology/methods: The method used in the work to analyze the results of the survey method was SERVQL. Findings & Value added: Each subject area of service quality in the assessment of customers' needs some improvements, because in each of them there is a discrepancy between expectations and insights. Banks as service companies must be aware that the quality of service, appropriate communication with the client, contributes not only to improve their image, but primarily becomes a factor distinguishing them from competitors. |
| Keywords: | quality, customer service, bank |
| JEL: | A11 A14 B16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no106&r=dcm |
| By: | Sylvain Sourisseau (ADEME (French Environment and Energy Management Agency – University of Paris Saclay, TEPP-CNRS) |
| Abstract: | China’s growing urbanization and the speed of its manufacturing industry development led to a shock in steel demand at the beginning of the 2000’s and consequently to a shock across the iron and steel industry. In this paper, we carry out descriptive analysis of the evolution in the market structure and the related power market shifting. From a steady situation where few steelmakers negotiated with few mining firms in order to set up the annual price, the market evolved to a new price fixing process resulting from a supply-demand confrontation, like the move seen for most of the other materials a few decades ago. Moreover, the shock and the related events that occurred years after, led to a new composition of stakeholders in the iron and steel sectors, both on the demand and supply sides. In this new context, China has become an essential actor, modifying the industrial structure from a bilateral oligopoly to a thwarted monopsony. |
| Keywords: | steelmaking industry, iron ore, industrial economics, oligopoly, monopsony |
| JEL: | L10 L61 L72 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:17-03&r=dcm |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | This report examines ways to improve compliance with road freight transport regulations through the use of new data sources and technical solutions. It also reviews possibilities for new approaches to the broader governance of road freight as the availability of Big Data in transport facilitates more data-driven policy making with more targeted and flexible regulatory frameworks as well as more efficient enforcement mechanisms. The work for this report was carried out in the context of a project initiated and funded by the International Transport Forum's Corporate Partnership Board (CPB). CPB projects are designed to enrich policy discussion with a business perspective. Led by the ITF, work is carried out in a collaborative fashion in working groups consisting of CPB member companies, external experts and ITF staff. |
| Date: | 2017–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:36-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Gehrig, Thomas; Stenbacka, Rune |
| Abstract: | We explore how the nature of the screening technology and the organization of the submission system affect the screening incentives of competing journals. Total screening in a duopolistic journal industry exceeds that of a monopoly. Exclusivity requirements for submissions induce more screening than systems with parallel submission. Interestingly, in the sequential screening model established journal rankings tend to reduce screening incentives. The screening technology determines whether the high-ranked or low-ranked journal have stronger screening incentives, which has implications for the long-run stability of established rankings. |
| Keywords: | assessment of research quality; competition between journals; Information Acquisition; simultaneous versus sequential screening |
| JEL: | D80 L10 L13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12065&r=dcm |
| By: | Christopher M. Meissner; John P. Tang |
| Abstract: | Japanese exports between 1880 and 1910 increased massively in volume, changed composition, and shifted away from leading industrialized countries toward poorer Asian neighbors. The product mix also varied with the level of development of the destination, with new products and specializations more likely to ship to less developed regional economies. Using a new disaggregated data set of the bilateral-product level exports for the universe of Japanese trade partners, we find that changes in various extensive margins (new markets, new goods) account for over 30 percent of export growth over this period. Determinants of initial entry include trade costs and market size. Products started in a small number of markets and accumulated additional destinations building on earlier successes. Subsequent entry was also influenced by product-level characteristics interacting with destination-specific characteristics. We confirm that export growth for “new” products was stronger in LDCs than in advanced economies, but the latter still claimed a larger share of overall trade growth. There is little evidence that Japan exported low quality manufactured goods to new, low-income destinations. Instead, reductions in trade costs helped Japan augment market share. Exit is relatively rare but appears to be determined by market-specific demand-side effects and product-specific factors. |
| Keywords: | market entry, extensive margin, intensive margin, first wave of globalization, export diversification |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:055&r=dcm |
| By: | James Bishop (Reserve Bank of Australia); Peter Tulip (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | Vector autoregression (VAR) models often find that inflation increases in response to a tightening in monetary policy, although standard macroeconomics predicts the opposite. This 'price puzzle' is commonly thought to reflect interest rates being tightened in anticipation of future inflation, reflecting information possessed by policymakers beyond that contained in the model. Romer and Romer (2004) and Cloyne and Hürtgen (2016) successfully remove the price puzzle from US and UK data, respectively, by purging the cash rate of systematic policy responses to central bank forecasts. We find that this approach does not work for Australia under a wide range of specifications. This suggests that VARs may not be the most reliable way to analyse monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | price puzzle; monetary policy; VARs |
| JEL: | E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2017-02&r=dcm |
| By: | Camelia M. Kuhnen; Sarah Rudorf; Bernd Weber |
| Abstract: | We document that prior portfolio choices influence investors' expectations about asset values, and their future choices. We find that people update more from information consistent with their prior choices, leading to sticky portfolios over time. These effects are related to how the brain's valuation centers encode new information about assets and about the trader's own success. These findings provide microfoundations for theoretical models where agents learn jointly about their skill and about asset values, leading to disagreement, and offer a common explanation for several puzzling investor behaviors, specifically, households' low stock market participation rate, and the disposition and repurchase effects. |
| JEL: | G02 G11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23438&r=dcm |
| By: | Marek Piosik (Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The role of institutions in the social and economic development is widely recognized in recent literature on economics of institutions. Economic history provides many examples of bad and good institutional structures, environments, and ways of organizing the social life and relationships between individuals, which is the main reason for institutions to arise. Simultaneously diversity of institutional solutions can be perceived as cultural wealth from which societies can choose in order to find proper instruments to solve various problems in different situations. The present paper is an attempt to review main areas of research into institutional changes and synthesize them into mainstreams, which are also described in the multi-faceted viewpoint to prove the complexity and broad scope that need to be tackled by institutional economists to investigate institutional changes. The article analyses literature on institutional change and several dozen dimensions of the research areas that have a significant impact on the discussion on the mechanisms and environments of evolution of institutions. The review of the mainstreams is divided into five identified basic groups. In the last section the multidimensional perspective of the research area of institutional changes is proposed as it helps to grasp many aspects that play the fundamental role in understanding the process of institutional change, which is an indispensable step towards a development of the general theory of institutional change. |
| Keywords: | institutions; institutional change; theory of institutional change; evolution of the institution |
| JEL: | B52 D02 O17 O43 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no92&r=dcm |
| By: | Pereira, Luiz C. Bresser |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I discuss the historical (not the normative) concept of economic development, distinguish it from human development, reassert its identification with industrialization or structural change or productive sophistication, and argue that the distinction between development and growth is only necessary in cases of Dutch disease and predatory state in which the fruits of growth can be fully captured by the local oligarchy and foreign interests. In developing countries productive sophistication and productivity growth may be better explained by the transfer of workers and technicians to the more sophisticated sectors than by the increasing returns that are more relevant to rich countries. Although economic development does not imply a reduction of inequalities, it implies an increase in real wages to facilitate the equilibrium between supply and aggregate demand; because wages can grow around increasing productivity without making the rate of profit unsatisfactory; and because the remuneration of people ultimately corresponds to their labor value – their cost of reproduction. |
| Date: | 2017–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:450&r=dcm |
| By: | Iwona Markowicz (University of Szczecin, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The popular term of business demography or demography of the firm denotes a relatively young area of science which focuses on the structures of cohorts of firms and the changes that undergo within these structures. As both the terms suggest, the studies use research methods traditionally applied in demographic studies. Survival analysis is increasingly used in business demography. The purpose of the present study was to build the enterprises survival models for territorial groups in Zachodniopomorskie (Poland). In the first stage the Kaplan-Meier estimator was calculated and the test to verify the similarity of the survival function for poviats was conducted. Poviats were classified into groups. Next, the tables of enterprises survival were built and the business liquidation intensity was analysed in individual groups. In this study the continuous-time non-parametric models were used: Kaplan-Meier estimator, Gehan test and duration table. Those methods were employed to model the survival time and find differences in the survival of firms in the poviats of the Zachodniopomorskie. In keeping with the above scheme five territorial groups with similar enterprises survival time models were distinguished. The study results presented in this article reveal the differentiation of enterprises survival models in the territorial groups. Five groups of poviats were distinguished. These groups, as a result of the study, have been characterized. |
| Keywords: | model of enterprises duration; Kaplan-Meier estimator; hazard function; cohort tables of enterprises survival |
| JEL: | C10 C14 C41 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no71&r=dcm |
| By: | elmakki, asma; Bakari, Sayef; MABROUKI, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between industrial exports and economic growth in Tunisia. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the periods between 1969 and 2015 were tested using the Johansen co-integration analysis of VECM and the Granger-Causality tests. According to the result of the analysis, it was determined that there is a negative relationship between industrial exports and economic growth in the long run term. Otherwise, and on the basis of the results of the Granger causality test, we noted the absence of a causal relationship between industrial exports and economic growth in the short term. These results provide evidence that industrial exports, thus, are not seen as the source of economic growth in Tunisia and suffer a lot of problems and poor economic strategy. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Export, Economic Growth, Tunisia, Cointegration, VECM and Causality. |
| JEL: | F1 F14 |
| Date: | 2017–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79360&r=dcm |
| By: | Marina Tolstel (Volgograd State University, Russia); Irina Anikina (Volgograd State University, Russia); Albina Gukova (Volgograd State University, Russia) |
| Abstract: | The current stage of the economy’s development differs from the past ones in that the role of global infrastructure projects acquires ever more importance and that forming and designing of such programs becomes now a much more sophisticated process, all of this has led to a situation where we have to revise our system of economic methods of the evaluation benefits of a global infrastructure project for all involved countries. The existing methods and ways of evaluation influence global infrastructure projects on socio-economic development of the participating countries are to be complemented by new approaches reflecting the market changes and the advent of new financial instruments and stratagems. The aim of the paper is to evaluate influence the global infrastructure project on socio-economic development of the participating countries in the globalized world economy with respect to its main economic and social consequences and synergy effects (the case of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline). The aim of the paper is to evaluate influence the global infrastructure project on socio-economic development of the participating countries in the globalized world economy with respect to its main economic and social consequences and synergy effects (the case of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline). The authors crated methodological approach to the study of infrastructure projects influence on socio-economic development of the members based on the identification, evaluation and prediction of the influence of factors external and internal environment on the changing economic potential of the infrastructure projects participants. Adequate investment in the development of infrastructure is an important driver of long-term economic growth. Traditionally, infrastructure has been funded mostly through public investment. However, in view of scarcity of budgetary resources and lack of capacity within the government to implement these ambitious programs, the strategy of the government relies significantly on promoting investment through a combination of public investment and private participation (include foreign investors). The presented methodological approach allows to define and early diagnose the global infrastructure projects which facilitate a multiplication effect within the national economy. |
| Keywords: | global infrastructure projects, economic development, international investment, globalization |
| JEL: | B16 C18 F02 F21 F63 H54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no133&r=dcm |
| By: | Marina Tolstel (Volgograd State University, Russia); Irina Anikina (Volgograd State University, Russia); Albina Gukova (Volgograd State University, Russia) |
| Abstract: | The current stage of the economy’s development differs from the past ones in that the role of global infrastructure projects acquires ever more importance and that forming and designing of such programs becomes now a much more sophisticated process, all of this has led to a situation where we have to revise our system of economic methods of the evaluation benefits of a global infrastructure project for all involved countries. The existing methods and ways of evaluation influence global infrastructure projects on socio-economic development of the participating countries are to be complemented by new approaches reflecting the market changes and the advent of new financial instruments and stratagems. The aim of the paper is to evaluate influence the global infrastructure project on socio-economic development of the participating countries in the globalized world economy with respect to its main economic and social consequences and synergy effects (the case of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline). The aim of the paper is to evaluate influence the global infrastructure project on socio-economic development of the participating countries in the globalized world economy with respect to its main economic and social consequences and synergy effects (the case of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline). The authors crated methodological approach to the study of infrastructure projects influence on socio-economic development of the members based on the identification, evaluation and prediction of the influence of factors external and internal environment on the changing economic potential of the infrastructure projects participants. Adequate investment in the development of infrastructure is an important driver of long-term economic growth. Traditionally, infrastructure has been funded mostly through public investment. However, in view of scarcity of budgetary resources and lack of capacity within the government to implement these ambitious programs, the strategy of the government relies significantly on promoting investment through a combination of public investment and private participation (include foreign investors). The presented methodological approach allows to define and early diagnose the global infrastructure projects which facilitate a multiplication effect within the national economy. |
| Keywords: | global infrastructure projects, economic development, international investment, globalization |
| JEL: | B16 C18 F02 F21 F63 H54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no132&r=dcm |
| By: | Mavrozacharakis, Emmanouil; Tzagarakis, Stelios |
| Abstract: | There have been almost 40 years after the restoration of democracy in Greece and a peculiar prosperity, which was consciously cultivated by the leaders of political and economic elites, was promoted before the onset of the financial crisis. However, from the beginning of the financial recession, the temporal illusions have been revealed and the need of a complete transformation of the financial policies has been expressed, while a significant transformation of the entire political culture has started. Parties such as SYRIZA, Independent Greeks(ANEL) and Golden Dawn took advantage of the growing social discontent by propagating themselves as exponents of ordinary people and of their concerns or their fears, as the expression of resistance against an avoidable sellout of public values. However, crisis has exposed a number of successive truths which were elaborately hiding in the underbelly of the detaining political and socioeconomic system. These truths were exteriorized once it became clear that the foundations on which the Greek society was based after the restoration of democracy, were weak and insufficient to lead country towards a modern future. |
| Keywords: | political change, crisis, Greece, populism |
| JEL: | A13 A14 F0 F6 F66 F68 H0 H4 H41 H6 H7 I3 I31 P1 P16 |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79398&r=dcm |
| By: | Mawuli Segnon (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster, Department of Economics (CQE), Germany and Mark E AG, Germany); Chi Keung Lau (Newcastle Business School, Department of Economics and Finance, UK); Bernd Wilfling (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster, Department of Economics (CQE), Germany); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | We analyze Australian electricity price returns and find that they exhibit multifractal structures. Consequently, we let the return mean equation follow a long memory smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) process and specify volatility dynamics as a Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) process. We compare the out-of-sample volatility forecasting performance of the STAR-MSM model with that of other STAR mean processes, combined with various conventional GARCH-type volatility equations (for example, STAR-GARCH(1,1)). We find that the STAR-MSM model competes with conventional STAR-GARCH specifications with respect to volatility forecasting, but does not (systematically) outperform them. |
| Keywords: | Electricity price volatility; multifractal modeling; GARCH processes; volatility forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201739&r=dcm |
| By: | Mawuli Segnon; Chi Keung Lau; Bernd Wilfling; Rangan Gupta |
| Abstract: | We analyze Australian electricity price returns and find that they exhibit multifractal structures. Consequently, we let the return mean equation follow a long memory smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) process and specify volatility dynamics as a Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) process. We compare the out-of-sample volatility forecasting performance of the STAR-MSM model with that of other STAR mean processes, combined with various conventional GARCH-type volatility equations (for example, STAR-GARCH(1,1)). We find that the STAR-MSM model competes with conventional STAR-GARCH specifications with respect to volatility forecasting, but does not (systematically) outperform them. |
| Keywords: | Electricity price volatility, multifractal modeling, GARCH processes, volatility forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cqe:wpaper:6117&r=dcm |
| By: | Peter Mitic |
| Abstract: | Well-defined formal definitions for sentiment and opinion are extended to incorporate the necessary elements to provide a formal quantitative definition of reputation. This definition takes the form of a time-based index, in which each element is a function of a collection of opinions mined during a given time period. The resulting formal definition is validated against informal notions of reputation. Practical aspects of data procurement to support such a reputation index are discussed. The assumption that all mined opinions comprise a complete set is questioned. A case is made that unexpressed positive sentiment exists, and can be quantified. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.09955&r=dcm |
| By: | Vieira, Fausto José Araújo; Chague, Fernando Daniel; Fernandes, Marcelo |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a Factor-Augmented Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (FADNS) model to predict the yield curve in the US that relies on a large data set of weekly financial and macroeconomic variables. The FADNS model significantly improves interest rate forecasts relative to the extant models in the literature. For longer horizons, it beats autoregressive alternatives, with a reduction in mean absolute error of up to 40%. For shorter horizons, it offers a good challenge to autoregressive forecasting models, outperforming them for the 7- and 10-year yields. The out-of-sample analysis shows that the good performance comes mostly from the forward-looking nature of the variables we employ. Including them reduces the mean absolute error in 5 basis points on average with respect to models that reflect only past macroeconomic events. |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:445&r=dcm |
| By: | Drugov, Mikhail; Ryvkin, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new general results for winner-take-all rank-order tournaments with additive and multiplicative noise. We show that the comparative statics of the individual equilibrium effort with respect to the number of players follow the shape of the density the noise distribution. For aggregate effort, a similar relation holds for the failure (hazard) rate of the noise distribution. The equilibrium effort decreases as noise becomes more dispersed, in the sense of the dispersive order or appropriately defined entropy. These results are then extended to the case of a stochastic number of players, and new results on the effects of population uncertainty are obtained. All relevant results for the Tullock contest follow as a special case. |
| Keywords: | dispersive order; entropy; failure rate; log-supermodularity; stochastic number of players; tournament; Tullock contest; unimodality |
| JEL: | C72 D72 D82 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12067&r=dcm |
| By: | Chen, J.; Kobayashi, M.; McAleer, M.J. |
| Abstract: | The paper considers the problem of volatility co-movement, namely as to whether two financial returns have perfectly correlated common volatility process, in the framework of multivariate stochastic volatility models and proposes a test which checks the volatility co-movement. The proposed test is a stochastic volatility version of the co-movement test proposed by Engle and Susmel (1993), who investigated whether international equity markets have volatility co-movement using the framework of the ARCH model. In empirical analysis we found that volatility co-movement exists among closelylinked stock markets and that volatility co-movement of the exchange rate markets tends to be found when the overall volatility level is low, which is contrasting to the often-cited finding in the financial contagion literature that financial returns have co-movement in the level during the financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Lagrange multiplier test, Volatility co-movement, Stock markets, Exchange rate Markets, Financial crisis |
| JEL: | C12 C58 G01 G11 |
| Date: | 2017–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:99788&r=dcm |
| By: | Anthony A. DeFusco; Charles G. Nathanson; Eric Zwick |
| Abstract: | We present a dynamic theory of prices and volume in asset bubbles. In our framework, predictable price increases endogenously attract short-term investors more strongly than long-term investors. Short-term investors amplify volume by selling more frequently, and they destabilize prices through positive feedback. Our model predicts a lead–lag relationship between volume and prices, which we confirm in the 2000–2011 US housing bubble. Using data on 50 million home sales from this episode, we document that much of the variation in volume arose from the rise and fall in short-term investment. |
| JEL: | E32 G02 G12 R3 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23449&r=dcm |
| By: | Elina Bakhtieva (Tomas Bata University in Zlín) |
| Abstract: | Digital marketing has changed the nature of company-to-customer communication. With rising information overload and reduced decision-making time, touchpoints have gained additional importance by yielding customer loyalty. Yet the existing digital marketing tools have failed to keep pace with these trends. Companies are lacking a simple framework that focuses on a digital marketing strategy built around touchpoints and customer loyalty. This is especially relevant for B2B companies, which due to their specifics are more dependent on customers and less flexible in adapting of new digital trends. A B2B business strategy tailored to digital trends demands a re-evaluation of prior understanding of a product portfolio, a company’s internal and external environment. The purpose of the article is to present a framework that helps to undertake the necessary changes and enables the connections with industry. The suggested model has been drawn from the literature review and been extended based on the findings of an empirical multiple case study. Aspiring to follow trends in digital marketing and to help B2B companies to adapt their strategy to ongoing changes in company-to-customer communication, a new framework has been developed. The framework aims to increase customer loyalty and focuses on channels/touchpoints, assets, skills, audience and customer journey. The model could be beneficial for Chief Marketing Officers (CMO) and other C-levels by offering a simple and reliable tool for improving a company's position in the digital marketplace. Moreover, it enables continuously adjustment of an already existing business strategy. |
| Keywords: | digital marketing, customer loyalty, touchpoints, B2B digital marketing strategy, B2B industrial companies |
| JEL: | M31 L1 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no7&r=dcm |
| By: | Felipe Berrutti (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Carlos Bianchi (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | Despite the recent research efforts and methodological improvements, empirical evidence on the additionality effects of public innovation programs shows heterogeneous results by firm, sector, country and type of innovation. This paper assesses input additionality of public funding on private innovative investment of Uruguayan firms by applying a longitudinal analysis from 2001 to 2012. During this period, there was a dramatic increase of public innovation funds. However, the number of innovative firms remains stable and the amount of public funding for innovation at firm level is still very low. In this context, previous innovation experience appears as the most significant determinant of access to public innovation support. Moreover, we find evidence of a moderate substitution effect between public and private funds. We analyzed heterogeneous effects according to type of innovation, finding significant effects only for innovation based on acquisition of artifacts (embodied). We conclude on the main challenges of the current policy mix in Uruguay, stressing the relevance of further research lines on behavioral additionality to contribute to improve policy results. |
| Keywords: | public funding; input additionality, innovation survey, Uruguay |
| JEL: | O3 O38 L2 H81 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-04-17&r=dcm |
| By: | Beata Zatwarnicka-Madura (Cracow University of Economics, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The real estate market has attracted a lot of public interest due to its significant economic role. Changes are, however, going to abound in the nearest future as a result difficulties in accessing housing loans and amendments to the building construction laws, amongst others. This will call for even greater involvements of tenderers in the marketing communication process. Gender-related differences in the purchasing decision making process is growing in significance and should be reflected in marketing communications. The aim of the article is identify contemporary activities undertaken in marketing communications in the real estate market. The specific objective is to analyse the use of one of the most significant tools of marketing communications namely, the internet in the real estate market. The specific objective also includes seeking answers to the question if the sex of recipients of marketing messages concerning the real estate market is taken into consideration by their broadcasters. The study involved the use of literature analysis and criticism, analysis of web contents provided by tenderers of real estate as well as telephone interviews with representatives of both property developers and real estate agencies. Online marketing communications are the most important in real estate markets. Websites of real estate agencies and property developers vary a lot. Real estate tenderers, very often, make use of social media in marketing communications undertaken by them. One of the most common trend is to the use of images and not texts in marketing communications, thus creating new possibilities for communication. Very few property developers and real estate agencies exploit the knowledge of gender-related differences in the reception of marketing messages. Only few communication activities take cognisance of sex. The need for marketing communications in real estate to be directed at young customers has necessitated the engagement of new media sources in such activities. |
| Keywords: | marketing communications, real estate market, gender roles |
| JEL: | M21 M31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no145&r=dcm |
| By: | Alistair McGuire |
| Abstract: | Health featured prominently in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union (EU), with the Leave campaign's claim that Brexit would mean that £350 million extra money per week could be transferred from the UK's EU budget contributions to the NHS. Although the current Conservative government has ruled this out, arguing that any change in UK public expenditure plans is conditional on the Brexit negotiations with the EU, the NHS remains a central focus of all the main parties' election manifestos. The fundamental issue is whether the NHS is adequately funded. Related to arguments over the level of funding are questions about the delivery of healthcare: in essence, what role efficiency savings and internal competition for NHS resources should play in giving appropriate incentives in the delivery of healthcare; and whether service provision is deteriorating. Funding for the delivery of social care for the elderly faces its own crisis - and it has become a controversial issue in the election debate. |
| Keywords: | 2017 General Election, health, NHS, social care, healthcare, Conservative government, Labour Party, Liberal Democrat Party, Brexit, Health and Social Care Act 2012 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepeap:037&r=dcm |
| By: | Gorga, Carmine |
| Abstract: | Concordian economic theory is composed of models that observe the economic system from the perspective of production, distribution, and consumption of wealth—as well as the system as a whole. These are specialized approaches that, studied separately, have tended to create separate schools of economic thought. Concordian economic theory does not only try to recover the core of wisdom that exists in every school of economic thought; it also lays the foundation for a commonality of language that will eventually allow for communication across the divide of the schools. |
| Keywords: | Concordian economics, macroeconomics, methodology, Keynes, Hayek. |
| JEL: | A1 B1 B4 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79455&r=dcm |
| By: | Zhuang Hao; Benjamin Cowan |
| Abstract: | We examine the spillover effects of recreational marijuana legalization (RML) in Colorado and Washington on neighboring states. We find that RML causes a sharp increase in marijuana possession arrests in border counties of neighboring states relative to non-border counties in these states. RML has no impact on juvenile marijuana possession arrests but is rather fully concentrated among adults. We do not find evidence that marijuana sale/manufacture arrests, DUI arrests, or opium/cocaine possession arrests in border counties are affected by RML. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 K14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23426&r=dcm |
| By: | Sauveur Giannoni (Laboratoire Lieux, Identités, eSpaces et Activités (LISA)); Olivier Beaumais (Laboratoire Lieux, Identités, eSpaces et Activités (LISA)); Caroline Tafani (Laboratoire Lieux, Identités, eSpaces et Activités (LISA)) |
| Abstract: | The presence of foreign buyers in land and housing markets has become a major concern for many regions in the world, sometimes seen as leading to the eviction of local (domestic) buyers from the market. We argue that the existence of the non-local buyer premium is a driving force behind the local buyer eviction phenomenon. To account for this phenomenon, we built a stylized static search and bargaining model with one type of seller and two types of buyers, local and non-local. We show that the market is in general characterized by the coexistence of two different selling prices, a high price paid by non-local buyers and a low price paid by local ones. Yet, if the price premium exceeds a given threshold, which we call the maximum sustainable price dispersion cut-point, no seller will be willing to deal with a local buyer at a low price anymore. To illustrate our theoretical results, we use a data set of more than 4,800 observations on the seaside farmland market of Corsica between 1998-2008. Controlling for land characteristics and potential endogeneity issues, a huge non-local premium of roughly e16 per square meter is found. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lia:wpaper:005&r=dcm |
| By: | Maleva, Tatyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lyashok, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Gurvich, Evsey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zubarevich, Natalya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the current stage of social development is analyzed. On the basis of monitoring of socio-economic status and wealth of the population, the dynamics of social indicators (from 2015 to April 2016) are evaluated. In order to assess the current situation and to form a multi-dimensional picture of the social changes in the Russian economy, a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of social indicators, covering essential public services was carried out. These indicators included incomes, the processes in the labor market, the regional social development, demographic development and changing migration situation and the assessment of social well-being of the population. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021711&r=dcm |
| By: | Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Fernandes, Marcelo; Scherrer, Cristina Mabel |
| Abstract: | We formulate a continuous-time price discovery model in which the price discovery measure varies (stochastically) at daily frequency. We estimate daily measures of price discovery using a kernel-based OLS estimator instead of running separate daily VECM regressions as standard in the literature. We show that our estimator is not only consistent, but also outperforms the standard daily VECM in finite samples. We illustrate our theoretical findings by studying the price discovery process of 10 actively traded stocks in the U.S. from 2007 to 2013. |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:444&r=dcm |
| By: | Mikhailova, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This work continues the study of the anatomy of the geographical concentration of Russian industries and firms. Applying the method of Ellison, Glazer and Kerr, I estimate the relative importance of various factors in the observed process of spatial concentration of industrial production in the post-Soviet period. It is shown that the most significant factor was the attraction of large cities. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041721&r=dcm |
| By: | Hasan Hanic (Belgrade Banking Academy, Serbia); Tijana Kalicanin (Belgrade Banking Academy, Serbia); Dusko Bodroza (Institute of Economic Sciences, Serbia) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to measure the impact of the FDI on the economic growth in Poland and on the economic growth in Serbia and further to make comparative analysis of the impact between these two countries. Empirical studies showed that FDIs can make crowding-out effect, i.e. FDIs can out crowd domestic investments which further have more impact on the economic growth. Because this effect depends on the specific level of the development of the country, the aim is to compare the influence of the FDI on economic growths on both of them as long as Poland is classified as a developed country and Serbia is a country which belongs to the group - countries in transition. Panel data includes variable values from 1999-2007, until global economic crisis period and 2008-2015, period after crisis in order to see flows and make comparison between these two periods. GDP is the main indicator which represents economic growth. According to that, using regression analysis, the aim is to measure influence of FDIs as the independent variable on real GDP growth, as dependent variables. Besides, a group of control variables are included in the method. As long as GDP is enhanced by lower inflation, inflation will be used as independent variable. Our model also includes determinants of monetary and government sectors such as official exchange rate, inflation and government consumption. Using two multiple linear regression models we found the significant influence of FDI inflows on economic growth in Poland. Using the same models for observations in Serbia we haven’t found significant effects of FDI Inflows on economic growth. |
| Keywords: | FDI, economic growth, development, investments |
| JEL: | A11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no43&r=dcm |
| By: | Elzbieta Skapska (Bialystok University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The analysis of contemporary economies pursuing service based economies shows the issue concerning the innovation in services. It seems to be important from the standpoint of modifying the actions of enterprises and economies on competitive, local, national and international arenas. The economic practice and public activity prove there is a need for intelligent growth. It consists in the development of economy that is based on knowledge and innovation – the development which produces high added value. Thus, it is necessary to foster creative entrepreneurship that inclines towards the introduction of changes at the level of an enterprise which results in contributing to the creation of good economic condition in general. Research background: The article regards the issue of Podlaskie enterprises that tend to introduce innovation within the services of a higher level, understood as services, that creates added value from the point of view of service company managers. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to examine the opinions of managers from Podlaskie on innovation in services and whether the range of provided services is accepted by service receivers. Methodology/methods: The realization process of the assumed goal shall use the monograph and survey methods as well as analysis and synthesis. The survey is directed at managers of Polish companies in Podlaskie province. It regards factors that rule the inclination for the introduction of changes in service nature and its quality in the period of 1-3 years (stimulating and inhibitive). Findings & Value added: The research shows that the analyzed sub sector of services is an interesting area in the context of innovation in the micro scale and thus has potential for further study. |
| Keywords: | service enterprises, innovations in services, service manager, Podlaskie Province |
| JEL: | D11 D33 D70 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no115&r=dcm |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Against the background of rising anti-globalisation sentiment, this report argues that, while there are good reasons for some people to be angry, trade is not the root of many problems, nor can it solve them on its own. What is needed is an integrated approach to make the whole system work better for more people. This means three things. First, creating the environments where benefits from trade can materialise through domestic policies that encourage opportunity, innovation and competition by cutting unnecessary trade costs and investing in people and digital and physical infrastructure. Second, doing more to bring everyone along, including in lagging regions where trade shocks can be concentrated. Third, making the international system work better, harnessing the full range of international economic co-operation tools to level the international playing field, addressing the gaps in the rules and doing more to ensure that everyone, from companies to countries, plays by the rules. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, Globalisation, labour, rules |
| JEL: | F13 F16 F18 F6 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:202-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Lee, Dae-Jin; Durbán Reguera, María Luz; Carballo González, Alba |
| Abstract: | We present several methods for prediction of new observations in penalized regression using different methodologies, based on the methods proposed in: i) Currie et al. (2004), ii) Gilmour et al. (2004) and iii) Sacks et al. (1989). We extend the method introduced by Currie et al. (2004) to consider the prediction of new observations in the mixed model framework. In the context of penalties based on differences between adjacent coefficients (Eilers & Marx (1996)), the equivalence of the different methods is shown. We demonstrate several properties of the new coefficients in terms of the order of the penalty. We also introduce the concept memory of a P-spline, this new idea gives us information on how much past information we are using to predict. The methodology and the concept of memory of a P-spline are illustrated with three real data sets, two of them on the yearly mortality rates of Spanish men and other on rental prices. |
| Keywords: | Mixed Models; P-splines; Penalized regression; Prediction |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:24607&r=dcm |
| By: | Gorga, Carmine |
| Abstract: | Years ago, I recommended that my City, my Polis, Gloucester, MA, never sell its natural resources to any outsider. Last year, with the passing of Fidel Castro, I saw a possibility for Cuba to become finally free. Naturally, I urged Cubans not to repeat the errors made by Russia and China at the collapse of communism; I urged Cubans not to sell their natural resources to the oligarchs, whether local or foreign. This time around, I also urged Cubans not to repeat the political errors of the past, namely trying to correct horrors of the left with horrors of the right; this time around I urged Cubans and anyone else who might want to hear to achieve a revolution from the center of the political system. With the forthcoming elections in Kenya, in the hope of averting the bloodshed that followed the 2007 elections there, I recently felt impelled to enlarge my focus to appeal to every nation in Africa, and the rest of the world for that matter, not to sell their natural resources to foreigners. The financial resources to achieve this goal are the same the world over: One must organize local financial resources, through: 1. Any such instrument as a Local Interdependence Fund; and 2. A reform of central bank operations to issue a) loans only to create real wealth; b) loans at cost; c) loans to benefit as many people as possible, hence loans to individual entrepreneurs, cooperatives, corporations with ESOPs and/or CSOPs, and to public agencies with taxing power to fund public works projects. |
| Keywords: | D24, E52, E58, F31, F33, G21, G28, G34, K11, K21, N50, O44 |
| JEL: | D24 E52 E58 F31 F33 G21 G28 G34 K11 K21 N50 O44 |
| Date: | 2017–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79422&r=dcm |
| By: | Fan, Ying; Yavas, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | The high growth rate of mortgage debt in various emerging and developed economies has captured headlines following the financial crisis. In this paper, we investigate how mortgage debt impacts household consumption behavior and various components of household consumption. Utilizing a comprehensive household survey data from China, we show that households with a mortgage consume a higher portion of their income than households without a mortgage. This is in line with the argument that having a mortgage reduces the uncertainty that the household faces regarding how much to save each month in order to be able to own a house, and this reduced uncertainty leads to lower monthly savings for the purpose of buying a house. We also find that among households with a mortgage, those who spend a larger share of their income on mortgage payments spend less of their income on consumption, reflecting the crowding out effect of mortgage payments on household consumption. Furthermore, we show that a government policy of decreasing the maximum loan-to-value ratio has a significant impact on the consumption behavior of households. The current paper offers the first evidence of the impact of growing mortgage debt on the consumption behavior of households. Our results will have implications for government policies that encourage mortgage borrowing. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, Mortgage Debt |
| JEL: | D14 E21 G21 |
| Date: | 2017–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79306&r=dcm |
| By: | Muhammad Irfan (University of Waikato); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Gazi Hassan (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to estimate the fuel expenditure and price elasticities of household fuels in Pakistan. Burning of wood, animal dung, and crop residues are harmful to health and may cause preventable morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Forests, natural gas and other energy reserves are depleting. It is important to investigate how households’ fuel choices are linked to prices, so that governments can consider appropriate steps to enhance the consumption of clean fuels and discourage the use of solid fuels. In this paper we pooled three Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement Survey (PSLM) data sets (2007-08, 2010-11 and 2013-14) and applied the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) model to investigate the price and expenditure elasticities at urban, rural, and national levels. We found that all fuel types except natural gas were price inelastic at the national level and for urban households, implying that changes in prices lead to comparatively lesser changes in quantity demanded of most fuels. In rural areas, natural gas and LPG were found to be more price elastic compared with urban areas. Fuel expenditures elasticities for all fuels were found to be positive and between zero and one. Simple policy simulations based on our results suggest that in order to reduce the indoor air pollution, governments should subsidise clean fuels rather than imposing taxes on solid fuels. |
| Keywords: | household energy; elasticities; LA-AIDS; Pakistan |
| JEL: | O13 P28 Q41 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:17/11&r=dcm |
| By: | Marta Kuc (Gdansk University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Geographical proximity, common historical roots and collaboration within the Nordic Council make the Nordic countries, often wrongly treated as monoliths. However, in reality, Nordic regions differ in terms of broadly defined social and economic development. Issues concerning the standard of living are one of the priorities of the Helsinki Treaty signed by Nordic countries. The main goal of this paper is to analyze the existence of the social convergence in the Nordic NUTS-3 regions over the 2000-2015 period. The social convergence refers to a reduction in the dispersion of the standard of living across regions. Result of this analysis may be helpful in evaluating the efficiency of the activities under third and fourth Nordic Strategy for Sustainable Development. The spatial taxonomy measure of development proposed by Pietrzak was used as the standard of living approximation. Inclusion of spatial relationships in the construction of taxonomic measure of development is justified as regions are not isolated in space and can be affected by other units. The existence of beta-, sigma- and gamma convergence was tested for global spatial aggregate measure and as well for sub-groups of determinants forming the standard of living. The analysis showed that the regions with the highest standard of living are those situated on the west coast of Norway. Regions with the lowest standard of living were regions located in central Finland. However the most important part of this research was to investigate the existence of beta-, sigma- and gamma- social convergence. The results show that there is no convergence for global standard of living measure. However the convergence occurs in groups of determinants of education and health care. |
| Keywords: | social convergence, Nordic regions, standard of living, taxonomy spatial measure of development |
| JEL: | C10 C43 I31 R12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no51&r=dcm |
| By: | Keane, Claire; Russell, Helen; Smyth, Emer |
| Abstract: | This article examines the impact of a large increase in female participation on occupational segregation. Increases in female participation may decrease occupational segregation if women enter male dominated sectors but may increase segregation if they enter already female dominated sectors. Using Ireland as a test case due to the recent large increase in female participation rates, we firstly carry out a decomposition analysis between 1991 and 2006 and find that the rise in female employment was driven predominantly by increased demand while between one tenth and one fifth of the rise was due to women increasing their share of occupational employment. Formal measures of segregation show that occupational segregation fell over this time period. The formal measures of segregation show that the level of occupational grouping is important with stagnation or smaller falls in segregation using a broad occupational grouping and sharper falls using a more detailed occupational grouping. Our findings support previous U.S. research that found a rise in female participation resulted in a decline in occupational segregation. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp564&r=dcm |
| By: | Ben Chen; José A. Rodrigues-Neto |
| Abstract: | We model civil litigation as a contest between a plaintiff and a defendant. A success function describes the litigants’ respective posterior probabilities of success based on their simultaneously-chosen efforts and an exogenous prior reflecting their relative advantages. The present success function satisfies general assumptions which capture frequently-used functional forms. These assumptions represent natural intuitions regarding the properties of reasonable success functions, and enable the results arising from the present model to reach a great degree of generality. Another generalization is the use of an exogenous proportion to characterize a cost-shifting rule that allows the winner to recover that proportion of her litigation costs from the loser. There exists a unique Nash equilibrium with positive efforts. In equilibrium, more cost shifting makes the outcome of the case more predictable, but may increase the litigants’ collective expenditure and decrease their collective welfare. |
| Keywords: | cost shifting, legal predictability, litigation costs, legal accuracy, contest theory. |
| JEL: | C72 K41 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2017-651&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Gabrielczak (Department of Macroeconomics, Institute of Economics, University of Lodz); Tomasz Serwach (Department of International Trade, Institute of Economics, University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | The goal of the article is to evaluate the impact of the European Union (EU) accession on the complexity of goods in Slovak exports. The traditional theories or trade (Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin models) show that such an engagement in economic integration may lead to specialization in the production of either more or less sophisticated goods, depending on the country’s technological advancement and factor endowment. At the same time, increased FDI flows may stimulate the engagement of a country in international production chains with ambiguous effects on export complexity. Because it is impossible to a priori predict the effect economic integration may have on the complexity, it is reasonable to verify it empirically. The authors used the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to compare the observed post-accession levels of exports complexity in Slovakia with the counterfactual values of that country remaining outside of the EU. The obtained results show that the accession led to an increase in complexity of exported goods. |
| Keywords: | economic integration, European Union, international trade, complexity, treatment effect, Synthetic Control Method |
| JEL: | C21 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:6/2017&r=dcm |
| By: | Alessia Lo Turco Author-X-Name-First: Alessia; Daniela Maggioni Author-X-Name-First: Daniela |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of local intra and extra-regional product-specific capabilities in foster ing the introduction of new products by firms active in the Turkish manufacturing sector. We model firmsÕ product additions to their product basket as dependent on extra and intra-regional knowledge. We find that regional "discoveries", that is newly introduced products never produced before in the region, are positively and significantly affected by external related knowledge spurring from foreign firms active in the same location as well as by firm internal capabilities. Technologically related intra-regional knowledge spillovers and extra-regional knowledge spilling from imported inputs do not play a relevant role. The former, however, matter when we extend the analysis to all new products introduced by firms, regardless of their previous presence in the regional production basket. We interpret this evidence as foreign affiliates bringing new and exclusive capabilities which are missing in the region where they locate, thus providing a stimulus for regional production diversification and upgrading. This hypothesis is validated by exploring the heterogeneous role of the different intra and extra-regional knowledge sources according to productsÕ complexity. Length: |
| JEL: | F11 F14 D22 D80 N30 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1710&r=dcm |
| By: | Cagé, Julia; Hervé, Nicolas; Viaud, Marie-Luce |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the extent of copying and estimates the returns to originality in online news production. We build a unique dataset combining all the online content produced by the universe of news media (newspaper, television, radio, pure online media, and a news agency) in France during the year 2013 with new micro audience data. We develop a topic detection algorithm that identifies each news event, trace the timeline of each story and study news propagation. We show that one quarter of the news stories are reproduced online in less than 4 minutes. High reactivity comes with verbatim copying. We find that only 32.6% of the online content is original. The negative impact of copying on newsgathering incentives might however be counterbalanced by reputation effects. By using media-level daily audience and article-level Facebook shares, we show that original content represents 57.8% of online news consumption. Reputation mechanisms actually appear to solve about 40% of the copyright violation problem. |
| Keywords: | Copyright; Facebook; Information spreading; internet; Investigative journalism; reputation |
| JEL: | L11 L15 L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12066&r=dcm |
| By: | Pereira, Luiz C. Bresser |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses two closely related concepts – the Dutch disease and the natural resource curse – and a third one, exchange rate populism, associated to the curse. The Dutch disease is a long-term overvaluation of the national currency that originates from the exports of commodities which originate Ricardian rents. The natural resource curse is the generalized rent-seeking that takes over a country that exports commodities. And exchange rate populism is a political practice of keeping the national currency overvalued, so to assure reelection to the politician. This paper shows that the curse and the populism will make difficult for a country to neutralize the Dutch disease, which blocks investment and growth, but argues that the fight against the natural resource curse and the exchange rate populism will be strengthened if the policymakers realize that there is a relatively simple policy that effectively neutralize the disease – a policy that was sketched almost ten years ago (Bresser-Pereira 2009), but remains hardly known by economists. |
| Date: | 2017–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:452&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz Piskorski; Alexei Tchistyi |
| Abstract: | We develop a tractable general equilibrium framework of housing and mortgage markets with aggregate and idiosyncratic risks, costly liquidity and strategic defaults, empirically relevant informational asymmetries, and endogenous mortgage design. We show that adverse selection plays an important role in shaping the form of an equilibrium contract. If borrowers' homeownership values are known, aggregate wages and house prices determine the optimal state-contingent mortgage payments, which efficiently reduces the costs of liquidity default. However, when lenders are uncertain about homeownership values, the equilibrium contract only depends on house prices and takes the form of a home equity insurance mortgage (HEIM) that eliminates the strategic default option and insures the borrower's equity position. Interestingly, we show that widespread adoption of such loans has ambiguous effects on the homeownership rate and household welfare. In economies in which recessions are expected to be severe, the HEIM equilibrium Pareto dominates the equilibrium with fixed-rate mortgages. However, if economic downturns are not severe, HEIMs can lower the homeownership rate and make some marginal home buyers worse-off. We also note that adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) may share some benefits with HEIMs, which may help justify a high concentration of ARMs among riskier borrowers. Finally, we find that unrestricted competition between lenders may lead to a non-existence of equilibrium. This suggests that government-sponsored enterprises may stabilize mortgage markets by subsidizing certain mortgage contracts. |
| JEL: | D1 D5 E44 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23452&r=dcm |
| By: | Zhu, Xiwei (School of Economics, Zhejiang University); Liu, Ye (School of Economics, Zhejiang University); He, Ming (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Luo, Deming (School of Economics, Zhejiang University); Wu, Yiyun (School of Economics, Zhejiang University) |
| Abstract: | This article studies the synergy effect of entrepreneurship on China’s industrial clusters. We propose an extension to Duranton and Overman’s (2005) method which enables us to delimit industrial clusters in space. The empirical model is identified with historical measures of local entrepreneur potential in the spirit of Chinitz (1961). We find that measures of entrepreneurship contribute significantly to cluster formation, cluster size, and cluster strength. Access to sea ports stimulates industrial concentration but agricultural legacy has the opposite effect. Light industries have more clusters which are also larger and stronger. Clusters also benefit from historical measures of market potential, localization/urbanization economies, and urban population density. Most of the results are robust to alternative instrumental strategies. Finally, we find evidence that the synergy effect is stronger where the local conditions are favorable to clusters. |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-05&r=dcm |
| By: | Michalis Nikiforos; Gennaro Zezza |
| Abstract: | The stock-flow consistent (SFC) modeling approach, grounded in the pioneering work of Wynne Godley and James Tobin in the 1970s, has been adopted by a growing number of researchers in macroeconomics, especially after the publication of Godley and Lavoie (2007), which provided a general framework for the analysis of whole economic systems, and the recognition that macroeconomic models integrating real markets with flow-of-funds analysis had been particularly successful in predicting the Great Recession of 2007-9. We introduce the general features of the SFC approach for a closed economy, showing how the core model has been extended to address issues such as financialization and income distribution. We next discuss the implications of the approach for models of open economies and compare the methodologies adopted in developing SFC empirical models for whole countries. We review the contributions where the SFC approach is being adopted as the macroeconomic closure of microeconomic agent-based models, and how the SFC approach is at the core of new research in ecological macroeconomics. Finally, we discuss the appropriateness of the name "stock-flow consistent" for the class of models we survey. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Models; Stock-flow Consistency; Financial Models; Economic Policy |
| JEL: | E1 E17 E50 E60 F41 G00 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_891&r=dcm |
| By: | James D. Hamilton |
| Abstract: | Here's why. (1) The HP filter produces series with spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (2) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle, and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (3) A statistical formalization of the problem typically produces values for the smoothing parameter vastly at odds with common practice, e.g., a value for λ far below 1600 for quarterly data. (4) There's a better alternative. A regression of the variable at date t+h on the four most recent values as of date t offers a robust approach to detrending that achieves all the objectives sought by users of the HP filter with none of its drawbacks. |
| JEL: | C22 E32 E47 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23429&r=dcm |
| By: | David Hirshleifer; Po-Hsuan Hsu; Dongmei Li |
| Abstract: | We propose that innovative originality (InnOrig) is a valuable organizational resource, and that owing to limited investor attention and skepticism of complexity, firms with greater InnOrig are undervalued. We find that firms’ InnOrig strongly predicts higher, more persistent, and less volatile profitability; and higher abnormal stock returns—findings that are robust to extensive controls. The return predictive power of InnOrig is stronger for firms with higher valuation uncertainty, lower investor attention, and greater sensitivity of future profitability to InnOrig. This evidence suggests that innovative originality acts as a ‘competitive moat,’ and that the market undervalues InnOrig. |
| JEL: | G12 G14 G3 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23432&r=dcm |
| By: | Mehiddin Al-Baali (Department of Mathematics and Statistics Sultan Qaboos University, P.O. Box 36, Muscat 123, Oman); Andrea Caliciotti (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy); Giovanni Fasano (Department of Management University Ca' Foscari of Venice; S. Giobbe, Cannaregio 873 - 30121 Venice, Italy); Massimo Roma (Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG), University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose the use of damped techniques within Nonlinear Conjugate Gradient (NCG) methods. Damped techniques were introduced by Powell and recently reproposed by Al-Baali and till now, only applied in the framework of quasi{Newton methods. We extend their use to NCG methods in large scale unconstrained optimization, aiming at possibly improving the efficiency and the robustness of the latter methods, especially when solving difficult problems. We consider both unpreconditioned and Pre-conditioned NCG (PNCG). In the latter case, we embed damped techniques within a class of preconditioners based on quasi-Newton updates. Our purpose is to possibly provide efficient preconditioners which approximate, in some sense, the inverse of the Hessian matrix, while still preserving information provided by the secant equation or some of its modifications. The results of an extensive numerical experience highlights that the proposed approach is quite promising. |
| Keywords: | Large scale unconstrained optimization ; Nonlinear Conjugate Gradient methods ; quasi-Newton updates ; damped techniques |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aeg:report:2017-05&r=dcm |
| By: | Menezes, Aline |
| Abstract: | I use the discontinuous allocation of single and dual-ballot rules across mayoral elections in Brazil to compare politicians fielded and elected in these systems. Dual-ballot candidates in general are not statistically different from their single-ballot counterparts in terms of age, education and occupational skill. Parties field female candidates at the same rate in both systems, but dual-ballot elections have less women in the top two and three positions, on average. These candidates raise and spend, on average, the same amount of resources in the electoral campaign and the rate at which they win and/or run for reelection is also similar. Interestingly, the only difference in performance found between the two types of mayors is in the attraction of discretionary transfers, which is larger in dual-ballot municipalities, but only in election years when mayors are eligible for reelection. Taken together, these results indicate that the experience demanded from candidates in major parties entering dual-ballot elections may translate into unobserved political skills that are required to deal with the electoral process in dual-ballot. That, by itself, punishes female candidates to the extent to which women's participation in politics has been historically low. |
| Keywords: | electoral rules, candidacy, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79370&r=dcm |
| By: | Wioletta Wierzbicka (University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Information infrastructure creates the key infrastructure of the knowledge-based economy. The widespread use of information and communication technologies contributes not only to the increased efficiency of individual economic entities, but also to the possibilities of enhancing the entire economy. Information infrastructure is also a significant determinant in the development of territorial units, and therefore, it influences the regional dimension of building knowledge-based economy in Poland. The purpose of the study was the evaluation of the regional differentiation of the level of information infrastructure in Poland, and changes which occurred in this respect between 2010 and 2015. The following research hypothesis was formulated: Regional differentiation of the level of information infrastructure in Poland is decreasing, i.e. a regional convergence process is taking place in this respect. The study was performed at the regional NUTS II level. Taxonomic methods, including linear ordering based on a synthetic variable and a method of grouping linearly-ordered objects, were used. The regional differentiation of the level of information infrastructure in Poland is at an average level, whereas the scale of this differentiation has slightly decreased. This may be confirmed by the value of the variation coefficient, which fell from the level of 17.6% in 2010 to the level of 14.4% in 2015. The regional convergence with respect to the level of information infrastructure in Poland was accompanied by the internal convergence and divergence of provinces. In consequence of such processes, the position of individual provinces with respect to others, has changed quite significant. Into the group of provinces with a very high ICT level were classified three provinces: Mazowieckie, Dolnoslaskie and Pomorskie. The group of provinces with very low ICT level includes: Lubelskie, Swietokrzyskie and Zachodnipomorskie. |
| Keywords: | information infrastructure, regional differentiation, knowledge-based economy |
| JEL: | O30 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no141&r=dcm |
| By: | Elsner, Wolfram |
| Abstract: | Complexity economics has developed into a powerful empirical, theoretical, and computational research program in the last three decades, advancing more realistic economics. It converges with long-standing heterodox schools, and its theoretical and empirical findings are consistent with older heterodox research interests and predictions. Economic complexity is characterized by path-dependence, idiosyncrasies, some self-organization capacity, structural emergence, and certain statistical distributions in economic topologies and motions, as complex economic systems move between building order and phases of sudden disorder. In agent-based systems, underlying “intentionality” of agents includes improving their performance, reducing perceived complexity, and generating social institutions. Boosted by the financial crisis 2008ff., a surge to explore complexity-economics’ policy implications has emerged. This chapter will briefly review the literature on economic Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) and derive implications for economic-policy interventions and the state to act upon socio-economic complexity. From an “evolution-of-cooperation” perspective, we exemplarily derive some more specific policy orientations, specified “framework-policy” or “interactive-policy” approaches, embedded in a conception that we call “new meritorics”. We consider some required structures and capacities that a modern effective state, capable of a strong and persistent, but learning and adapting “complexity policy”, should have. |
| Keywords: | Complex adaptive systems (CAS),complexity,economic policy,emergence,evolution,institutions,networks,self-organization,group size,state structure,qualification |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:158766&r=dcm |
| By: | Natalia Vukovic (Ural State Forest Engineering University, Russia); Andrey Mehrentsev (Ural State Forest Engineering University, Russia); Evgeny Starikov (Ural State Forest Engineering University, Russia) |
| Abstract: | Traditional energy sources based on oil, coal, and natural gas have proven to be highly effective, but at the same time they have many negative environmental effects. Also by technical and economical points traditional energy sources are not available in many remote areas. In this paper, the authors have been discussed the alternative approach in energy supply, which also has positive social-economic and environmental effects. This paper provides a new solution for energy supply in remote areas by implementing bioenergy based on woodchips, which has multi-sector effects. Bioenergy generation based on woodchips has multi-sector effect that is why authors offer to combine forest cleaning cutting and forest thinning with bioenergy based on woodchips in one project which will have social, economic and ecological effects. The situation with forest fires makes the authors idea more attractive because after forest fires the problem of cleaning cutting in forest became very important and urgent by ecological and economical points: after cleaning cutting there are a lot of low quality wood which by author’s idea can be recycled into chips for bioenergy. This methodology has been applied to bioenergy and regional development decisions in remote areas which mainly have a problem with energy provision; it is suitable for applications to infrastructure development projects in any remote forested region of the world. Mobile bioenergy generation based on woodchips in remote areas settle the complex of environmental, social, economic problems and can become the driver of development of the region. |
| Keywords: | bioenergy, woodchip, cleaning cuttings, forest thinning, remote areas development |
| JEL: | O44 P28 Q01 Q42 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no137&r=dcm |
| By: | Nikulin, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kuznetsov, Igor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The study of the problems of agrarian crises and development cycles applied to both history and modernity, with an emphasis on the regional aspect, was carried out during the same research work. Since the most interesting results were obtained in the historical part of the work, a description of some of them is offered here. Our conclusions may be relevant in the context of an acute discussion between the so-called "optimistic" and pessimistic "views on the level and nature of the development of late tsarist Russia and the causes of Russian revolutions. |
| Keywords: | Agrarian crisis, agrarian history, agrarian development, agrarian policy, agricultural statistics |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041730&r=dcm |
| By: | Elodie Letort; Pierre Dupraz; Laurent Piet |
| Abstract: | Nitrate pollution remains a major problem in some parts of France, especially in the Brittany region, which is characterized by intensive livestock production systems. Although farmers must not exceed a regulatory limit of nitrogen contained in manure per hectare, many farmers in this region exceed this limit. Therefore, they must treat the excess of manure that they produce or export it to be spread in neighbouring farms and/or areas, inducing fierce competition in the land market. Another adaptation strategy consists of modifying production practices or the production system as a whole, i.e., changing the structure of the farm. In this paper, a spatial agent-based model (ABM) has been developed to assess policy options in the regulation of manure management practices. The objective is to highlight the potential effects of these policies on the farmland market and the structural changes that they induce. Our results show that the different policies, which result in similar environmental benefits, induce different changes in the land market and in agricultural structures. |
| Keywords: | Q15, C63, D22 |
| JEL: | Q15 C63 D22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rae:wpaper:17-01&r=dcm |
| By: | Deicy Cristiano-Botia (Banco de la República de Colombia); Eliana González-Molano (Banco de la República de Colombia); Carlos Huertas-Campos (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | Mediante técnicas econométricas se determina si las expectativas de la tasa de interés de política y los choques no anticipados de la misma afectan las tasas de interés de captación y crédito. Se encuentra evidencia empírica de que las sorpresas monetarias tienen poder explicativo en los movimientos de tasas de mercado para las captaciones y créditos comerciales. Así mismo, se encuentra que las entidades financieras tienen en cuenta las expectativas sobre la tasa de intervención para fijar su tasa de captación. Por otro lado, se encuentra que las entidades financieras se anticipan a los movimientos de tasa de política y modifican sus tasas de captación antes del anuncio del Banco Central, y que tanto el día del anuncio como posterior a este no se realizan ajustes significativos en las tasas de mercado. **** Alternative economic models are used to determine whether policy interest rate expectations and unanticipated changes in the reference interest rate affect saving and credit interest rates. We found empirical evidence that policy surprises have predict power over fixing passive and active interest rates. Similarly, results show that to fix their interest rate financial entities take into account their expectations about policy rate. On the other hand, we found evidence of changes in deposits rates in advance the announcement of the monetary authority and no significance change on the day of the announcement and the day after. Classification JEL: D84, E43, E52, E58 |
| Keywords: | Expectativas, política monetaria, tasas de interés, mecanismos de transmisión. **** Expectations, Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, Transmission Mechanism |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:988&r=dcm |
| By: | Guin, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of culture in households saving decisions. Exploiting the historical language borders within Switzerland, I isolate the effect of households’ exposure to certain language groups from economic, institutional, demographic and geographic factors for a homogeneous and representative sample of households. The analysis uses the Swiss Household Panel which I complement with geographic and socio-economic data. I show that low- and middle-income households located in the German-speaking part are more than 11 percentage points more likely to save than similar households in the French-speaking part. In line with the existing literature, I show that these differences across language regions are consistent with different distributions of time preferences. By contrast, I do not find clear evidence for risk sharing during times of financial distress. JEL Classification: Z1, D12, E21, D91 |
| Keywords: | culture, household economics, household finance, language, saving |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172069&r=dcm |
| By: | Martijn Boermans; Sweder van Wijnbergen |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive dataset on issuances and holdings of contingent convertible debt instruments (CoCos) issued by European banks we investigate who invests in European CoCos. The results indicate that most European CoCos are not directly held by euro area investors. Foreign investors outside the euro area and investment funds located in Ireland and Luxembourg hold the large majority. Euro area banks, insurers and pension funds only have very limited direct exposures. Households in the euro area hold almost no direct positions in European CoCos, although there could be indirect holdings through non-euro area entities and euro area investment funds. Concerns for contagion through cross-holdings of CoCos by banks seem to be unwarranted. |
| Keywords: | contingent convertible debt; CoCos; banks; systemic risk; securities holdings |
| JEL: | G11 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:543&r=dcm |
| By: | Crossley, Thomas F.; Schmidt, Tobias; Tzamourani, Panagiota; Winter, Joachim K. |
| Abstract: | In this paper we ask whether interviewers influence the answers to a standard set of survey questions on financial literacy. We study data from Germany’s wealth survey, Panel on Household Finances (PHF). We have access to extensive paradata, including interviewer identifiers, background characteristics of interviewers, and measures of interviewer activity through the survey. We find that interviewer effects explain a significant fraction of the variance of the financial literacy score, and inter-interviewer correlations are notably larger for the financial literacy score than for other survey variables. We explore how accounting for interviewer effects can improve estimates of the effects of financial literacy on financial behaviours and outcomes. |
| Date: | 2017–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2017-06&r=dcm |
| By: | Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Enric Monte (Polytechnic University of Catalunya (UPC)); Salvador Torra (Riskcenter-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this study we use agents’ expectations about the state of the economy to generate indicators of economic activity in twenty-six European countries grouped in five regions (Western, Eastern, and Southern Europe, and Baltic and Scandinavian countries). We apply a data-driven procedure based on evolutionary computation to transform survey variables in economic growth rates. In a first step, we design five independent experiments to derive the optimal combination of expectations that best replicates the evolution of economic growth in each region by means of genetic programming, limiting the integration schemes to the main mathematical operations. We then rank survey variables according to their performance in tracking economic activity, finding that agents’ “perception about the overall economy compared to last year” is the survey variable with the highest predictive power. In a second step, we assess the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the evolved indicators. Although we obtain different results across regions, Austria, Slovakia, Portugal, Lithuania and Sweden are the economies of each region that show the best forecast results. We also find evidence that the forecasting performance of the survey-based indicators improves during periods of higher growth. |
| Keywords: | Economic indicators; Qualitative survey data; Expectations; Symbolic regression; Evolutionary algorithms; Genetic programming JEL classification: C51; C55; C63; C83; C93 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201706&r=dcm |
| By: | Guimarães, Bernardo; Salama, Bruno Meyerhof |
| Abstract: | Legislation that seems unreasonable to courts is less likely to be followed. Building on this premise, we propose a model and obtain two main results. First, the enactment of legislation prohibiting something raises the probability that courts will allow related things not expressly forbidden. In particular, the imposition of an interest rate ceiling can make it more likely that courts will validate contracts with interest rates below the legislated cap. Second, legal uncertainty is greater with legislation that commands little deference from courts than with legislation that commands none. We discuss examples of e§ects of legislated prohibitions (and, in particular, usury laws) that are consistent with the model. |
| Date: | 2017–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:440&r=dcm |
| By: | David Haugh (OECD); Muge Adalet McGowan (OECD); Dan Andrews (OECD); Aida Caldera Sánchez (OECD); Gabor Fulop (OECD); Pilar Garcia Perea (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Spain has chronically low productivity growth, which undermines its ability to generate higher living standards. Important contributors to low productivity growth are the misallocation of capital to low productivity firms and under-investment in knowledge-based capital. To foster a better allocation of capital a first priority is to better tune bank, capital market and government financing to the needs of new innovative firms. This could be done through better small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) bond and loan securitisation tools, reallocating public financing to early stage finance and making it easier for firms to access public innovation funding by shifting some funding from loans to grants for research and development (R&D) projects. Attracting more foreign capital and improving the regulatory framework to increase the return on investment would also help. This could be done by reducing regulatory barriers that hold back competition, improving the neutrality of the tax system, improving pricing signals and reforming insolvency laws. |
| JEL: | E22 G24 G28 O16 O38 O44 O47 O5 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1387-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Bartosz Deszczynski (Poznan University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Relationship marketing has been capturing the interest of scholars and practitioners since this term was first brought to light by L. L. Berry and T. Levitt in 1983. Numerous publicationsand billion – dollar software industry validate its vitality, but plethora of relationship oriented practices and isolated models spread it to thin. Therefore there is a need to synthesize the existing body of knowledge. Purpose of the article: This article presents discussion on maturity of relationship management merging it with the other complementary concepts: resource based view (RBV), human resources management (HRM), knowledge management (KM), customer relationship management (CRM), corporate social responsibility (CSR). Its main aim is to discussthe integrated relationship management framework – a step towards a relationship management grand theory. Methodology/methods: The main research method applied in this paper is an extensive literature review focused on identification and comparison of existing fragmented relationship interrelated concepts. The focal point of this work is the synthesis of various isolated (customer) relationship models, their integration and confrontation with complementary relationship oriented concepts. Findings & Value added: The main contribution of this paper is the adumbration of relationship management integrated framework, which links the maturity of corporate relationship management with proficiency in three interrelated dimensions: strategy / business model, the information technology and organizational change management. |
| Keywords: | relationship management; relationship assets; resource based view (RBV) |
| JEL: | L25 D23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no23&r=dcm |
| By: | Paul A. Gompers; Sophie Q. Wang |
| Abstract: | With an overall lack of gender and ethnic diversity in the innovation sector documented in Gompers and Wang (2017), we ask the natural next question: Does increased diversity lead to better firm performances? In this paper, we attempt to answer this question using a unique dataset of the gender of venture capital partners’ children. First, we find strong evidence that parenting more daughters leads to an increased propensity to hire female partners by venture capital firms. Second, using an instrumental variable set-up, we also show that improved gender diversity, induced by parenting more daughters, improves deal and fund performances. These effects concentrate overwhelmingly on the daughters of senior partners than junior partners. Taken together, our findings have profound implications on how the capital markets could function better with improved diversity. |
| JEL: | G24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23454&r=dcm |
| By: | Ewa Stroinska (University of Social Sciences, Poland); Justyna Trippner - Hrabi (University of Lodz, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Knowledge management in an organization is a new and less explored area in business literature and business practice. The scope of changes to enterprises influenced by competitive environment forces them to continuous seeking new ways of achieving the success. So-called intangible development factors start to be extremely meaningful – especially knowledge, consciously gained, created and disseminated through diversified methods aimed at shaping employees’ appropriate behaviours and developing information technology, which succours this process. Applying this approach requires the proper preparation of the organizational background and the system operation allowing the selection of a specific model. There are a lot of knowledge management models for organisation’s decision-makers to be able to manage the resources properly and skilfully. The aim of the article is to present the significance of knowledge management models' use in modern organizations. The authors constructed 2 main research questions for which they sought answers within the collection of empirical material: What are the main knowledge management models used in a company? And How can models influence the effectiveness of a organization? The following research hypothesis has been constructed: In practice management has not yet developed appropriate models for evaluating and diagnosing the impact of models on the effectiveness of business decisions. The empirical material was collected by means of a qualitative method and the technique used was a secondary analysis of the existing data in the form of thematic sources. The results of the review of the literature of the subject are presented as a synthetic description. Literary research was conducted at the turn of 2016 and 2017. Added value is a review of existing models that can be used in management practice. |
| Keywords: | management, organization, effectiveness, knowledge management models |
| JEL: | O00 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no121&r=dcm |
| By: | Tomasz Sosnowski (University of Lodz, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Prior studies suggest that companies which go public manage earnings in order to inflate the issue price. However, for PE funds the use of such activity can be costly in terms of the reputation capital as they are repetitive stock market players. The main aim of the study is to empirically investigate the use of pre-IPO earnings management by private equity funds in the process of divestment conducted on a stock exchange. I provide comparisons between PE-backed companies and firms with a similar initial market value and growth potential, using the method of single-linkage clustering to build the study sample. In order to assess the pre-IPO earnings management I apply the discretionary accruals model of Larcker and Richardson [2004]. I do not find evidence that the presence of PE fund among the shareholders of the company in the period preceding first listing of shares on a stock market constrains the use of earnings management prior to the IPO. The difference between the discretionary accruals in PE-backed and matched companies, when controlling for the market value and book-to-market ratio, is statistically insignificant. |
| Keywords: | Initial public offering, IPO, Private equity, Earnings management |
| JEL: | G24 G32 G34 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no118&r=dcm |
| By: | Elías Fernández, Antonio; Jiménez Recaredo, Raúl José |
| Abstract: | We propose a new methodology for predicting a partially observed curve from a functional data sample. The novelty of our approach relies on the selection of sample curves which form tight bands that preserve the shape of the curve to predict, making this a deep datum. The involved subsampling problem is dealt by algorithms specially designed to be used in conjunction with two different tools for computing central regions for functional data. From this merge, we obtain prediction bands for the unobserved part of the curve in question. We test our algorithms by forecasting the Spanish electricity demand and imputing missing daily temperatures. The results are consistent with our simulation that show that we can predict at the far horizon. |
| Keywords: | daily temperatures; electricity demand; central regions; depth measures |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:24606&r=dcm |
| By: | Gorlin, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Galieva, Nadezhda (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Grishina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Eliseeva, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kartavtsev, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Cheremnykh, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | One of the main lines of the strategy for long-term development of the pension system of the Russian Federation, approved by the Resolution of the Russian Government is the reform of early retirement institute. In this area Russian Government set an additional tariff of insurance premiums for employers who offer hazardous work; a special assessment of the working conditions is being made, according to it the the size of the additional tariff of insurance premiums from employers determined. In this context the monitoring of the strategy for long-term development of the pension system in terms of reforming early retirement institute for hazardous work appears to be important. A survey of employees engaged in hazardous work and having the right to early retirement, as well as expert interviews with employees who occupy senior positions in companies with hazardous working conditions, allowed to analyse labor behavior and motivation of workers in hazardous and dangerous conditions, how the workers assess their own health condition; to investigate the opinions of employees and employers on the future prospects of reforming the institute of early pensions with regard to the abolition of early retirement for beginner workers and current consequences of the special assessment of working conditions and the introduction of an additional rate of insurance contributions for employees, engaged in hazardous work. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021713&r=dcm |
| By: | Ralph Rudd (University of Cape Town); Thomas A. McWalter (University of Johannesburg); Jorg Kienitz (Bergische Universit¨at Wuppertal); Eckhard Platen (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Recursive Marginal Quantization (RMQ) allows fast approximation of solutions to stochastic differential equations in one-dimension. When applied to two factor models, RMQ is inefficient due to the fact that the optimization problem is usually performed using stochastic methods, e.g., Lloyd’s algorithm or Competitive Learning Vector Quantization. In this paper, a new algorithm is proposed that allows RMQ to be applied to two-factor stochastic volatility models, which retains the efficiency of gradient-descent techniques. By margining over potential realizations of the volatility process, a significant decrease in computational effort is achieved when compared to current quantization methods. Additionally, techniques for modelling the correct zero-boundary behaviour are used to allow the new algorithm to be applied to cases where the previous methods would fail. The proposed technique is illustrated for European options on the Heston and Stein-Stein models, while a more thorough application is considered in the case of the popular SABR model, where various exotic options are also priced. |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:rpaper:382&r=dcm |
| By: | Emanuel Hansen (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies optimal non-linear income taxation in an empirically plausible model with labor supply responses at the intensive (hours, effort) and the extensive (participation) margin. In this model, redistributive taxation gives rise to a previously neglected trade-off between two aspects of effciency: To reduce the deadweight loss from distortions at the extensive margin, the social planner has to increase distortions at the intensive margin and vice versa. Due to this trade-off, minimizing the overall deadweight loss requires to distort labor supply by low-skill workers upwards at both margins. Building on these insights, the paper is the first to provide conditions under which social welfare is maximized by an Earned Income Tax Credit with negative marginal taxes and negative participation taxes at low income levels. |
| Keywords: | Optimal income taxation, Extensive margin, Intensive margin |
| JEL: | H21 H23 D82 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2017_10&r=dcm |
| By: | Laura Panza; Jeffrey G. Williamson |
| Abstract: | Compared with its nineteenth century competitors, Australian GDP per worker grew exceptionally fast, about twice that of the US and three times that of Britain. This paper asks whether the fast growth performance produced rising inequality. Using a novel data set we offer new evidence supporting unambiguously the view that, in sharp contrast with US, Australia underwent a revolutionary levelling in incomes between the 1820s and the 1870s. This assessment is based on our annual estimates of functional shares in the form of land rents, convict incomes, free unskilled incomes, free skill premiums, British imperial transfers and a capitalist residual. |
| JEL: | N17 N37 O47 O56 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23416&r=dcm |
| By: | Aliprantis, Dionissi (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | This paper performs a subgroup analysis on the effect of receiving a Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing voucher on test scores. I find evidence of heterogeneity by number of children in the household in Boston, gender in Chicago, and race/ethnicity in Los Angeles. To study the mechanisms driving voucher effect heterogeneity, I develop a generalized Rubin Causal Model and propose an estimator to identify transition-specific Local Average Treatment Effects (LATEs) of school and neighborhood quality. Although I cannot identify such LATEs with the MTO data, the analysis demonstrates that membership in a specific demographic group is more predictive of voucher effects than is the group’s average change in school or neighborhood quality. I discuss some possible explanations. |
| Keywords: | Two-Dimensional Treatment; Rubin Causal Model; School Effect; Neighborhood Effect; Local Average Treatment Effect; Education Production Function; EPF; Moving to Opportunity; |
| JEL: | C31 C36 C50 D04 I20 I38 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1707&r=dcm |
| By: | Renata Marks-Bielska (University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland); Agata Zieliñska (University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Agency theory examines relations between entities as contract relations. The agency relation is always present when the situation of one person depends on the activities of another person. The individual who performs such activities is the agent, and the other party dependant on the activities of the agent is called the principal. The agency relation occurring between the above-listed parties is one of the oldest and most extensively codified modes of social interactions. Relationship studies: andlord - tenant, belong to the earliest and classic examples of agency relationships, analyzed by economists.the determination of the significance of the lease in Polish agriculture with the use of agency theory. The theoretical basis is primarily provided by a review of the literature encompassing publications devoted to agency theory, legislative acts pertaining to leases, as well as domestic and foreign scientific studies. Statistical data deriving from the Agricultural Property Agency. The time range of the analysis encompassed the years 1992–2015. The empirical section was prepared on the basis of results of our own studies.According to the analysis of the results of the author’s own studies, the most important advantage of leasing for the lessees is the possibility of expanding the farm (76.1%). Very similar importance was also assigned to the possibility of the pre-emptive right (70.1%). Most frequently (42.4%) this answer was indicated by the respondents who held over 75% under lease in total used land. This may be justified by the fact that farms with a high share of lease function in the environment of a relatively higher level of risk than farms with the majority of ownership, whereas purchase of leased land contributes to its minimisation. |
| Keywords: | agricultural lease, agency theory, contract |
| JEL: | D82 L51 Q15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no72&r=dcm |
| By: | Christina Christou (Open University of Cyprus, School of Economics and Finance, Latsia, Cyprus); Ruthira Naraidoo (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Won Joong Kim (Department of Economics, Konkuk University, Seoul, Republic of Korea) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to investigate how the four nations of Taiwan, India, China and Korea (i.e., the TICKs member states) set interest rates in the context of policy reaction functions. It adds to the previous literature in that the empirical estimates are conducted not only at the central mean of interest rate but we also take into account the response of interest rate to inflation, output and exchange rate at various points on the conditional distribution of interest rates, hence offering the possibility to test predictions of greater or lesser aggression at different bounds of interest rate. Our results indicate the tendency of a milder response to inflation at low interest rates and greater response at higher quantiles of interest rates, where inflation is presumably higher than desired for China and South Korea and hence offers evidence for nonlinearity. While the response to inflation over the quantiles is significant for India, yet the Taylor principle is less likely to hold. For Taiwan, the results imply that another instrument is employed to deal with its official managed floating currency. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Taylor rule; Quantile regression; Emerging markets |
| JEL: | C21 C26 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201738&r=dcm |
| By: | Mariano A. Somale |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a multi-country, general equilibrium, semi endogenous growth model of innovation and trade in which specialization in innovation and production are jointly determined. The distinctive element of the model is the ability of the agents to direct their research efforts to specific goods, in a context of heterogeneous innovation capabilities across countries and contemporaneous decreasing returns to R&D. The model features a two-way relationship between trade and technology absent in standard quantitative Ricardian trade models. I calibrate the model using a sample of 29 countries and 18 manufacturing industries and quantify the importance of endogenous adjustments in technology. I find that endogenous adjustments in technology due to directed research can account for up to 52.8% of the observed variance in comparative advantage in production. In addition, the model suggests that standard Ricardian models overestimate the reductions in real income from increases in trade costs and underestimate the increment in real income due to trade liberalizations. |
| Keywords: | Trade ; Innovation ; Directed research ; Quantitative models |
| JEL: | F10 F11 O30 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1206&r=dcm |
| By: | A. Mitchell Polinsky; Paul N. Riskind |
| Abstract: | We derive the sentence—choosing among the sanctions of prison, parole, and probation—that achieves a target level of deterrence at least cost. Potential offenders discount the future disutility of sanctions and the state discounts the future costs of sanctions. Prison has higher disutility and higher cost per unit time than parole and probation, but the cost of prison per unit of disutility can be lower or higher than the cost of parole and probation per unit of disutility. The optimal order of sanctions depends on the relative discount rates of offenders and the state, and the optimal duration of sanctions depends on the relative costs per unit of disutility among the sanctions and on the target level of deterrence. In the case we focus on, in which potential offenders discount the disutility of sanctions at a higher rate than the state discounts the costs of sanctions, we demonstrate that (a) it is optimal for prison to precede parole if both sanctions are used; and (b) it may be optimal to employ prison even if prison has a higher cost per unit of disutility than parole and probation and even if prison is not needed to achieve the deterrence target. |
| JEL: | H23 K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23436&r=dcm |
| By: | Erik O. Kimbrough; Andrew D. McGee; Hitoshi Shigeoka |
| Abstract: | Classroom peers are believed to influence learning by teaching each other, and the efficacy of this teaching likely depends on classroom composition in terms of peers’ ability. Unfortunately, little is known about peer-to-peer teaching because it is never observed in field studies. Furthermore, identifying how peer-to-peer teaching is affected by ability tracking—grouping students of similar ability—is complicated by the fact that tracking is typically accompanied by changes in curriculum and the instructional behavior of teachers. To fill this gap, we conduct a laboratory experiment in which subjects learn to solve logic problems and examine both the importance of peer-to-peer teaching and the interaction between peer-to-peer teaching and ability tracking. While peer-to-peer teaching improves learning among low-ability subjects, the positive effects are substantially offset by tracking. Tracking reduces the frequency of peer-to-peer teaching, suggesting that low-ability subjects suffer from the absence of high-ability peers to teach them. |
| JEL: | C91 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23439&r=dcm |
| By: | Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between domestic investment and economic growth in Malaysia. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the periods between 1960 and 2015 was tested by using Correlation analysis, Johansen co-integration analysis of Vector Error Correction Model and the Granger-Causality tests. According to the result of the analysis, it was determined that there is a positive effect of domestic investment, exports and labors on economic growth in the long run term, however, there is no relationship between domestic investment and economic growth in the short run term. These results provide en evidence that domestic investment, exports and labors are seen as a source of economic growth in Malaysia |
| Keywords: | Domestic Investment, Economic Growth, Correlation, Cointegration, VECM and Causality, Malaysia. |
| JEL: | E2 E22 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79436&r=dcm |
| By: | George Abuselidze (Batumi Shota Rustaveli State University); Madona Mikeladze (Batumi Shota Rustaveli State University) |
| Abstract: | The development of education in any country or society is one of the most urgent issues. When we talk about the development of education, above all we must take into consideration governmental funding system. High education and research funding is priority in most developed countries. Georgia, as the region's geopolitical and geostrategic center a few years ago began formation of the liberal democratic value-based society. Over the last period in Georgia reforms in educations system is ongoing, that led to changes in governments funding policy system. However, the higher education system is still far from Western standards of teaching and learning processes. The most significant problem in the educational system is inefficient financial management. The article above discusses the mechanisms for financing higher education in Georgia, financial management of the educational system, basically problems in program funding and their solutions. methods of studying observation, analysis and synthesis, progression from abstract towards concrete, notional experiment and experience. With the help of the article we have attempted to analyze one of the sides of the problem: how the state supports priority higher educational institutions and what the connection between consumed resources and learning outcomes is. The research clearly showed that financing education has become a priority direction for Georgia. The reform of the financing system has eliminated corruption in the educational system, increased competitiveness among the higher educational institutions, provided preparation of human resources in the fundamental fields of science and education, socially indigent population were given opportunity to get education. However, the same research also showed that the preparation of specialists with competences relevant to the modern requirements cannot be accomplished by financing only certain (though priority) programs. |
| Keywords: | Higher education; education management; budget; program financing |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I22 I28 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no4&r=dcm |
| By: | Avraamova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Karavay, Anastasia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The report contains the results of research which purpose was to determine the factors influencing the level of welfare and to describe population groups to be in poverty zone or under the risks to be among the poor. Informational base of the research is the data of representative sample poll of 3,5 thousand respondents over the whole Russia. The methodology, including the analysis of poverty risks and also of recourse capabilities of individuals and households to resist them, is applied. Comparison of risks and recourse capabilities allowed to identify the group, representing 28,8% of population, that had the highest risks of welfare reduction and at the same time without recourses allowing to build productive adaptation strategies except reduction of consumption activity. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031721&r=dcm |
| By: | Fischer, Georg (European Commission) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the US Unemployment Insurance (UI) in particular the federal-state partnership in governance, funding and policy making. It discusses “national interest” as defined by the Federal authorities in relation to UI: income support, economic and employment stabilization and reemployment. The corresponding policy objectives might not be (fully) shared by the states and tensions and policy conflicts emerge. The paper assesses the capacity of the UI system to deliver on those nationwide defined objectives in particular during and after the Great Recession. The UI system had considerable anticyclical impact reinforce by federal intervention. The paper discusses the federal tools to influence state schemes and how they encourage the acceptance of national standards through conditional funding. During the great recession this proved to be temporarily successful for access to and duration of benefits. The often announced shift to more pro-active programs was seemingly more difficult to achieve. Recent policy proposals including those by the outgoing Obama Administration and by the Republican Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, are reviewed. The paper concludes with reflections on the relevance of the US experience for European level unemployment benefit or welfare schemes. Given the strong position of the EU member states the US Federal-State partnership could be a more pertinent reference than the highly centralised UI systems in other federal states. The relation between federation wide standards and incentives for the reform of state systems, for sustainable financing and shifts to more pro-active policies might be of interest. Finally strengthening the anti-cyclical impact through federal intervention including funding mirrors debates on the role of automatic stabilisation mechanisms in the Euro Area. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance, stabilization, adequacy, funding, federal-state partnership, USA, European Union |
| JEL: | J65 J68 H75 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp129&r=dcm |
| By: | Ludmila Kozubikova (Tomas Bata University in Zlin); Gabriela Sopkova (University of Economics in Bratislava); Vladimir Krajcik (Pan-European University); Ladislav Tyll (University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Research background: SME character determines that entrepreneur´s personality plays a significant role in their management. For this reason it is necessary to consider the personality as a whole including his/her motives for entrepreneurship. Purpose of the article: The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between entrepreneurial motives and innovativeness in the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sector in the Czech Republic. Methodology/methods: We have analyzed the data collected in 2015 from 1141 SMEs from 14 regions of the Czech Republic. For the purpose of this article we focused on the motives for doing business, which were analyzed on the part of the whole sample including two selected groups of respondents. The first group (330 respondents) consisted of entrepreneurs who featured money as the most important motive for starting up a business and the second group (251 respondents) consisted of entrepreneurs who featured mission as the main reason for starting up a business. Findings & Value added: We have revealed statistically significant differences in innovativeness between the entrepreneurs motivated by money and the entrepreneurs motivated by mission. Regardless of the entrepreneurial motives vast majority of entrepreneurs consider the innovativeness to be important for their company. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurial motives, innovativeness, proactiveness, mission, money |
| JEL: | L26 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no156&r=dcm |
| By: | Michal Litwinski (Poznan University of Economics and Business; Niepodleglosci 10, 61-875 Poznan) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The way of understanding of development concept in economics has been changing since the beginning of the discipline: from economic growth, through economic development to socio-economic development. The author of the paper believes that identification of features of cultural context that shape understanding of this phenomenon will allow to understand appropriately contemporary definitions of this process. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the paper is to reconstruct features of socio-cultural context in which it has changed the way of understanding of development concept in economics. The specific objectives are as follows: identification of period in which it was recognised that development is something more than economic growth, identification of reasons and circumstances of evolution of development definition: from economic growth to socio-economic development. Methodology/methods: A basis for conclusions formulation will be a research of literature (mostly publications in English). Analysis will have interdisciplinary character as it relates sociological and economic dimensions of analysis of development. Findings & Value added: Division of economic development and economic growth took place in 1960s. Change of understanding of development concept was caused by the following factors: (1) influence of new sociological and philosophical ideas, (2) historical events, (3) growing meaning of formalism and scientism in economic considerations, (4) international cooperation for development. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic development; economic growth; social development; cultural context |
| JEL: | O10 O40 B10 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no61&r=dcm |
| By: | Bogdanyuk, Evgeny (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Trunin, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Hudko, Elizaveta (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Global system of financial regulation began to develop in the 1970s. in the conditions of increasing openness of financial markets and active developing of financial instruments. Currently global regulation standards cover the activities of key segments of the financial market and corporations: the banking sector, insurance organizations, payment and settlement systems, collective investment funds, securities market, a system of deposit insurance, and the organization of the financial statements. Development of financial activities in Russia requires an appropriate control system development, taking into account international best practices. The paper analyzes the evolution of global regulation system of individual segments of the financial markets, the extent of Russian involvement in global regulation and compliance with national approaches to the global standards. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031702&r=dcm |
| By: | Pandey, Ashish |
| Abstract: | This short perspective article discusses the effect of a start-up firm's capital structure on the nature and degree of competition in the marketplace. Specifically, the article argues that the nature of financing availed by the start-up firms expose them to the risk of predatory price-based competition from a well-capitalized competitor. The staged model of capital infusion works best when tangible progress can be demonstrated at every new round of financing. Indian start-up firms need to acknowledge this fact, pursue innovations that complement the local realities and develop a distinct local model that justifies the need for additional capital. |
| Keywords: | Venture Financing, Start-Up Firms, Predatory Competition, Capital Dumping |
| JEL: | D43 G32 G38 K42 M13 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79399&r=dcm |
| By: | Abroskin, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Abrîskina, Natalyà (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Subject area of the research are problems of macroeconomic indicators system harmonization methodology and indicators of financial statements of public sector of the economy organizations. In the research the recommendations of international organizations are systematized and perspective foreign experience in the field of methodology of macroeconomic indicators development on the basis of the financial statements data of public sector organizations, formed in accordance with international standards, is analyzed. The practical result of the research is proposed schemes of cost indices of SNA production account construction for the public sector of the economy units engaged in the production of goods and services. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031709&r=dcm |
| By: | HOSONO Kaoru; TAKIZAWA Miho; YAMANOUCHI Kenta |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty delays investment that involves disruption cost or time-to-build, resulting in capital misallocation from a static point of view. However, theory predicts that uncertainty will affect investment, and hence static misallocation, depending on the degree of product market competition. Using a large panel dataset of manufacturing plants in Japan, we find that although uncertainty results in static misallocation, the effect is weaker for industries with less severe product market competition. We further find that competition worsens uncertainty-driven misallocation through the misallocation among firms that invested in the previous year (the active margin) rather than among those that did not (the inactive margin). While competition increases the probability of investment, it increases the variability of the optimal level of capital as well, which worsens misallocation. To improve allocative efficiency, reduced uncertainty complements competition policies. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17071&r=dcm |
| By: | Arnaud Costinot; Iván Werning |
| Abstract: | The Lerner Symmetry Theorem (Lerner, 1936) establishes the equivalence between import tariffs and export taxes in a simple neoclassical economy with two countries, two final goods, and no trade costs. In this paper we provide a number of generalizations and qualifications of this well-known result. Among other things, we show that the absence of trade deficits is neither necessary nor sufficient for Lerner Symmetry to hold. We conclude by discussing its implications for border tax adjustments. |
| JEL: | F1 F10 F11 F12 F13 F23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23427&r=dcm |
| By: | Roland G. Fryer, Jr |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact on student achievement of implementing management training for principals in traditional public schools in Houston, Texas, using a school-level randomized field experiment. Across two years, principals were provided 300 hours of training on lesson planning, data-driven instruction, and teacher observation and coaching. The findings show that offering management training to principals significantly increases student achievement in all subjects in year one and has an insignificant effect in year two. We argue that the results in year two are driven by principal turnover, coupled with the cumulative nature of the training. Schools with principals who are predicted to remain in their positions for both years of the experiment demonstrate large treatment effects in both years – particularly those with principals who are also predicted to implement the training with high fidelity – while those with principals that are predicted to leave have statistically insignificant effects in each year of treatment. |
| JEL: | I20 J0 M10 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23437&r=dcm |
| By: | Malgorzata Szymanska-Bralkowska (University of Gdansk, Poland); Ewa Malinowska (University of Gdansk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Green Lean (Lean and Green) approach is based on the lean method. As the literature and case studies show the Japanese quality improvement tools can be used in environmental management as well as in quality management. Companies that focus on sustainability may use those tools and methods to improve its processes and eliminate green waste at the same time. The research concentrates on the examples of the companies that started to implement the Green Lean (Lean and Green). The purpose of the article is to present how the application of Green Lean (Lean and Green) approach improves the environmental performance of the company and what are the benefits. Critical review of the literature, observation, interviews in selected researched companies. By identifying and eliminating the green waste i.a. in energy, materials, garbage, water, emissions, biodiversity, transportation researched companies are minimizing its negative impact on environment. As the research shows the employees should be motivated and involved in the process so does the management to make it work. Green Lean (Lean and Green) approach enables the companies to perform in profitable and sustainable way at the same time. |
| Keywords: | Lean Management; Green Lean; Lean and Green; environment |
| JEL: | Q5 Q59 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no127&r=dcm |
| By: | Psofogiorgos, Nikolaos - Alexandros; Metaxas, Theodore |
| Abstract: | IMF was established as a financial institution for the promotion of world trade and international financial stability of members. However, IMF focused on assistance to developing countries and transition economies and as a result seems to have political implications. Many studies suggest that IMF lending programs undermine the quality of democracy in the countries which make use of the institution's resources. This conventional idea is rooted in two basic assumptions: First, when negotiations are made, the doors are closed. Secondly, the IMF programs impose strict limits on political power of borrowers that may result in power distribution consequences. Other studies result in a positive relationship between IMF programs and democracy. Maybe the presence of an IMF loan itself doesn’t affect the democracy, but high loan reforms required have negative impact on democratic practices. This effect depends on the type of reforms that are required by the loan. |
| Keywords: | IMF, democracy, reforms, political implications |
| JEL: | E02 F33 G01 O43 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79403&r=dcm |
| By: | Kornienko, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Velikova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Gulyaeva, Svetlana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Korolev, Georgiy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pushkareva, Nataliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mitrofanova, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | It's hard to remember the last time tax issues attracted global attention so much, as it is now. Project BEPS2 by OECD, is described as the biggest change in the history of international taxation. The current order is based on the paradigm of tax competition and allows companies to organize business in such way as to erode tax base artificially and to transfer income to low-tax jurisdictions. It opposes BEPS project carried out by OECD, which seeks to adapt the international system of taxation to the new, digital, economy and the rapid development of e-business. Both Russia's and worldwide tax legislation fall behind the development of electronic business. In connection with the special relevance of the issue of e-business taxation within the BEPS project the final report on Activity 1 of BEPS Project «Preparation of measures on taxation of the digital sector." was released in October 2015. In 2015 the EU introduced a new concept of determining the place of supply of e-services to end-users: the place of services' supply recognized as Buyer's location. The Federal Law was adopted In Russia on 3d July, 2016 N 244-FZ "On Amendments to Parts One and Two of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation", coming into force 1st January 2017. It introduces a new principle of foreign companies taxation in the provision of electronic services by customer's location. In terms of recent research the e-business taxation in Russia, all countries of EAEC and a number of the EU countries is analyzed. The research reflects the OECD's position on taxation of e-business, as well as the position of the EU. According to the results of the research, suggestions for e-business taxation in the Russian Federation were made, including suggestions both in terms of direct and indirect taxation. In the framework of direct taxation proposals were prepared both to Tax Code of the Russian Federation and the agreements on avoidance of double taxation. Suggestions for taxation of e-business were prepared not only at the national level, but at the supranational level. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021717&r=dcm |
| By: | Das, Nimai; Kumar, Rajeev |
| Abstract: | This is the first-ever study to estimate role of the non-governmental sector in health sector of India. It is a background study to support the National Health Account of India (2016) by Government of India. It found that the current health expenditure of non-governmental sector is INR 10,091 crore, which constitute about 2% of total health expenditure and around 0.09% of GDP with reference period 2013-14 |
| Keywords: | India, non-governmental organizations, health system, health expenditure |
| JEL: | C83 I18 Z18 |
| Date: | 2016–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79402&r=dcm |
| By: | Gandal, Neil; Hamrick, JT; Moore, Tyler; Oberman, Tali |
| Abstract: | We identify and analyze the impact of suspicious trading activity (STA) on the Mt. Gox Bitcoin currency exchange between February and November 2013. We discuss two distinct STA periods in which approximately 600,000 bitcoin (BTC) valued at $188 million were acquired by agents who did not pay for the bitcoins. During the second period, the USD-BTC exchange rate rose by an average of $20 at Mt. Gox on days when suspicious trades took place, compared to a slight decline on days without suspicious activity. Based on rigorous analysis with extensive robustness checks, we conclude that the suspicious trading activity caused the unprecedented spike in the USD-BTC exchange rate in late 2013, when the rate jumped from around $150 to more than $1,000 in two months. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin; Crytocurrencies; Price Manipulation |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12061&r=dcm |
| By: | Eli Laniado (Poznan University of Economics and Business al.Niepodleglosci 10, 61-875 Poznan, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The huge research interest in the interrelationship between motivation, organizational culture, and engagement can be explained psychologically and economically. Psychological reasons include work individualization, increasing interest in positive psychology, and the role of human resources, perceived as a key resource in enhancing business competitive advantage. The economic reason is “engagement deficit” resulting from low employee engagement rates in organizations. Business organizations around the world pay a heavy price for unengaged and uncommitted employees. Leaders today are exerting tremendous pressure on their workforces to achieve optimal results. It is, therefore, becoming increasingly important for organizations to attract, engage, develop and build loyalty among their employees, based on their organizational culture, to gain a competitive edge in today's global marketplace. Purpose of the article: The article’s main purpose is exploring the interrelationship between three variables: motivation and organizational culture, which are independent variables, and engagement which is the dependent variable. This is important in the light of 21st century leaders' challenges to establish a solid organizational culture to engage their employees. Methodology: Methodology is based on a multidisciplinary literature review in the fields of organizational psychology and management theory, including nearly 100 articles, reports and books. Findings: Building an engagement organizational culture means leaders must understand the interrelationship between organizational culture and engagement and its contribution to achieving business goals. Managing organizational culture requires leaders to focus on human aspects like motivation and employee values. The engagement organizational culture lies, profoundly, at the center of the ethical value-based organizational culture. |
| Keywords: | motivation; engagement; organization culture; empowerment; leadership |
| JEL: | J24 M54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no59&r=dcm |
| By: | Schrape, Jan-Felix |
| Abstract: | Over the last 20 years, open source development has become an integral part of the software industry and a key component of the innovation strategies of all major IT providers. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to develop a systematic overview of open source communities and their socio-economic contexts. I begin with a reconstruction of the genesis of open source software projects and their changing relationships to established IT companies. This is followed by the identification of four ideal- typical variants of current open source projects that differ significantly in their modes of coordination and the degree of corporate involvement. Further, I examine why open source projects have mainly lost their subversive potential while, in contrast to former cases of collective invention, remaining viable beyond the emergence of predominant solutions and their commercial exploitation: In an industry that is characterized by very short innovation cycles, open source projects have proven to be important incubators for new product lines and branch-defining infrastructures. They do not compete against classical forms of production but instead complement and expand these. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:stusoi:201703&r=dcm |
| By: | Zofia Grodek-Szostak (Cracow University of Economics); Janusz Nesterak (Cracow University of Economics); Malgorzata Luc (Jagiellonian University in Cracow) |
| Abstract: | Research background:.In the international literature we can find great examples of research in the field of innovation and technological cooperation boosting between companies. Confrontation of theory and empirical research shows that meaning of cooperation and geographical closeness for innovative activity as well as the quality and effectiveness of public support are still ambiguous. Public support of technological cooperation is connected with different components of innovative network, that shows the need of horizontal cooperation, what is legitimate in developed countries. Great example of that kind of international network is Enterprise Europe Network (EEN). Innovative cooperation and technology transfer infiltration always have been a subject of research, but still there are issues to investigate. Because of that reason, there was a research hypothesis created: international technology transfer performed among companies and other economic entities accelerates innovative processes and gives profits for both players. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to show different aspects among cooperation and technology transfer and trial to evaluate its synergical impact on international innovative activity of companies. Methodology/methods: This paper illustrates theoretical and empirical research in the scope of many aspects of innovative cooperation and technology transfer. The empirical analysis focused on data from the Enterprise Europe Network in 2009-2015 and interviews with offices supporting companies in starting and performing of international technological cooperation. The presentation of spatial connections of technological cooperation was illustrated by the Gastner Newman’s amorphous (eumorphous) choropleth, created in the ArcMap 10.4.1 programme with the use of the quantile method. Findings: The article discusses the role of cooperation among network in the international technology transfer. A special analytical emphasis was put on the public networks supporting such cooperation. Specific knowledge and technology is very often out of reach for companies (especially SMEs) because of costs or limited access, and cooperation provides the opportunity to create new relations which can integrate ideas and knowledge, and in effect, lead to new ground-breaking innovations. There is also the significant element like public support for companies in the whole technology transfer process. |
| Keywords: | technology, support, cooperation, innovation, management |
| JEL: | O14 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no32&r=dcm |
| By: | Möhlmann, Axel |
| Abstract: | Life insurers are exposed to interest rate risk, and their liability side is typically more sensitive to interest rate changes than their asset side. This paper develops an accounting-based measure of interest rate sensitivity. My approach uses the coexistence of historical cost and market value accounting, which permits the observation of valuations for different discount rates. Using microdata, I show that German life insurers have a significant exposure to interest rate risk. However, there is a wide dispersion across the sector. I find that insurers' size, growth and solvency are negatively correlated with interest rate risk. The heterogeneity suggests that insurers would behave differently during times of stress, which has important implications for understanding the macroprudential risks to which the sector is exposed. |
| Keywords: | life insurance,interest rate risk,asset liability management,duration gap |
| JEL: | E43 G11 G22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:102017&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Kulyk (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski); Mariola Michalowska (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski); Monika Patelska (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The article has address the issue of sustainable consumption which is becoming increasingly important on account of the adverse social and environmental consequences caused by the development and growth of societies. Sustainable consumption encourages to make rational choices and take responsibility for one's choices. Consumers take a number of decisions every day that affect not only themselves, but also cause externalities. There are many studies that indicate that consumers when buying goods and services are driven by environmental and ethical considerations. Purpose of the article: Changes occurring in the environment affect consumer behavior leading to multiplicity of attitudes and changes in consumption trends. The article has shown consumer behavior in line with the concept of sustainable development against the background of trends in consumption in Poland. Methodology/methods: The basis for the discussion in the article will be: literature studies, available empirical studies and our own results of the survey among respondents in Lubuskie voivodeship. Surveys using questionnaires were directed at 541 respondents. The number of correctly completed questionnaires was 500, and the figures contained in them were subjected to further analysis. Findings: Respondents in their purchasing choices are not guided by the influence of the consumption on the natural environment. However, in their behaviors we can notice some environmental measures, which stem from different reasons, depending on the socio-economic conditions. |
| Keywords: | consumers’ behaviours, sustainable consumption, trends in consumption, Lubuskie voivodeship |
| JEL: | Q01 D11 D12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no55&r=dcm |
| By: | Andrea Albanese; Lorenzo Cappellari (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Marco Leonardi |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effects of the 2003 reform of the Italian apprenticeship contract which aimed at introducing the “dual system” in Italy by allowing on-the-job training. The reform also increased the age eligibility of the apprenticeship contract and introduced a minimum floor to apprentices’ wages. Using administrative data and balancing techniques we find that five years after hiring, the new contract improves the chances of moving to a permanent job in the same firm, yet this happens mostly in large firms. There are also sizeable long-run wage effects of the reform, well beyond the legal duration of apprenticeships, compatible with increased human capital accumulation probably due to the training provisions of the reform. |
| Keywords: | Apprenticeship, Permanent Work, Youth Employment, Covariate Balancing, Propensity Score . |
| JEL: | J24 J41 C21 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def057&r=dcm |
| By: | Ivo Bischoff (University of Kassel); Julia Hauschildt (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | The German apprenticeship system is widely known throughout the world. We analyze expenditures on vocational schools on county level using data from 213 West-German counties between 2001 and 2006. We use spatial econometrics to test for spatial correlation in counties’ expenditure on vocational schools but find no evidence that vocational schools serve as instrument in inter-county competition. While the theoretical literature suggests that spending should be higher for apprentices from small firms, we find a negative relationship between the share of apprentices from small firms and the expenditures per pupil. Expenditures are found to increase in the share of Christian Democrats in the county council. |
| Keywords: | vocational schools, German apprenticeship system, local public finance, spatial econometrics |
| JEL: | H75 R51 R58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201722&r=dcm |
| By: | Krzysztof Falkowski (World Economy Research Institute, Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The actual position of a country in the international division of labour is determined by the competitiveness of its trade, the structure of which may both reveal and perpetuate the comparative advantages possessed. This is particularly true for Dutch disease economies such as Russia. Recently, economic literature has seen a growing interest in the topic of Russia’s economic relations with the European Union and China. This article is meant to be the author’s contribution to this discussion. Purposes of the article: (1) to discuss the existing trade interdependence between Russia and EU28, and Russia and China; (2) to try to assess the extent to which the current structure of Russian trade with these two partners corresponds with the competitiveness of the Russian economy. Methodology/methods: An in-depth analysis of Russia-EU28 and Russia-China trade interdependencies in 2007-2015 has been conducted, with emphasis on the categories of goods within the spectrum from low-tech to high-tech, according to the OECD classification. Furthermore, in order to analyse Russia’s competitive profile with regard to the same categories of goods, Balassa’s methodology of revealed comparative advantages has been applied. Findings & Value added: In the recent years, a growing importance of China in Russian trade can be observed, being the effect of dynamic growth of Chinese economy, cooling political relations between Moscow and Brussels and the drop in petroleum prices in international markets. Sadly, the existing structure of Russian trade with EU28 and China seems likely to preserve its traditional competitive advantages in the medium-low-tech goods and petroleum, which, in turn, will only further exacerbate the negative effects of the so-called Dutch disease affecting the Russian economy. |
| Keywords: | trade interdependence; competitiveness; competitive advantages; Russia; European Union; China |
| JEL: | F14 F40 P45 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no25&r=dcm |
| By: | Nina Bockova (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Management, BUT); Tomas Meluzin (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Management, BUT); Stanislav Skapa (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Management, BUT) |
| Abstract: | This contribution analyses the relationship between Research and Development funding’s and economic growth within the Visegrad Group during the period 2005-2014. The studied geographical area is regions NUTS 2 of the Visegrad Group. The indicators considered in this contribution are GDP per inhabitant, percentage of GERD performed by business sector and GERD as percentage of GDP. The econometric analysis show that R&D Intensity is an important driver of economic growth (R = 0.64) that is measured by GDP per inhabitant in PPS. This contribution is the result of a two-phase research fellowship funded by the Internal Grant Agency of the Brno University of Technology. The first phase project research produced a regression analyze with dependent variable GDP per inhabitant and independent variable GERD as percentage of GDP. In the second phase of the research were formulated econometric models. This contribution answers the following question: Can the Visegrad Group Members reach the Europa 2020 Strategy target in R&D, i.e. 3% of GDP to be invested into the R&D sector. This research uses Eurostat database for the analysis of the relationship between R&D funding by the business sector and the corresponding economic growth. The research is based on dependent variable GDP per capita and independent variables: GERD and R&D Intensity during the period 2005-2014. The fit goodness of the model is evaluated the determination coefficient, using T-test on the regression coefficients. The autocorrelation in the residuals is checked by applying the Durbin-Watson (D-W) test. The statistical analyze is performed by using Stepwise Multiple Regression in software STATISTICA 12. Main result of research provides relationship between economic growth measured by GDP per inhabitant and R&D expenditures as percentage of GDP. The studied statistical data set is 38 NUTS 2 regions in Visegrad Group. If the Visegrad Group regions will the 3% target then GDP PPS per inhabitant in equal to 29,276. The result of the research can be used for the Visegrad Group governments. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; Visegrad Group; comparative study; regression analysis; Europe 2020 strategy |
| JEL: | O11 O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no15&r=dcm |
| By: | HASEGAWA Makoto; KIYOTA Kozo |
| Abstract: | In 2009, Japan introduced a dividend exemption system that exempts 95% of dividends paid from foreign subsidiaries to their parents from home country taxation. As a result, Japan's international tax system moved from a worldwide tax system to a territorial tax system. This paper examines the impact of this tax reform on the activities of Japanese-owned foreign affiliates in terms of the number of foreign affiliates, profit, sales, employment, and investment. We find that the statutory corporate tax rate of the host country negatively affects the number of foreign affiliates established in that country over the entire data period from 2004 to 2013. However, we find no evidence that, in response to the decrease in the repatriation tax rate induced by the tax reform, Japanese multinationals established new affiliates or increased their reported profit, sales, employment, and investment. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:17038&r=dcm |
| By: | Iqbal Hussain, Hafezali; Mohd Farid, Shamsudin; Noor H, Jabarullah |
| Abstract: | The dynamic trade-off view of capital structure is based on partial adjustment models that find that firms adjust towards target levels. In this paper, we estimate the speed of adjustment based on the first difference of the lead leverage levels (actual lead) and lag leverage levels (actual lag) to the first difference of simulated lead (target) leverage levels and lag levels (actual lag leverage) for UK firms. Consistent with the literature we find that firms adjust the lag (current) leverage levels faster to lead levels when they are above lead levels relative to periods when they are below lead levels. This is due to managerial actions in minimizing present value of bankruptcy costs when firms are over-levered. Bringing in the market timing view of capital structure, we measure deviation of market prices to predicted theoretical values, and find that speed of adjustment is influenced by equity mispricing. We find that firms adjust faster to lead levels when lag levels are above lead levels and the extent of deviation above theoretical values is not excessive relative to when deviations of prices from theoretical levels are too high. Furthermore, looking at firms below lead levels, we find that firms adjust faster to lead levels when equities prices below theoretical values severely deviate; suggesting that firms increase debt issues when equity prices are acutely suppressed. This indicates managers are consistently looking at windows of opportunities when issuing or repurchasing to ensure successful timing attempts. Thus, our findings suggest that although market timing could also work within a trade-off framework where managers are timing based on the deviation from theoretical prices as well as moving towards simulated lead levels, the extent of the integration of both explanations of capital structure remains puzzling. |
| Keywords: | Non-linearity; Speed of adjustment; Timing of equity issues |
| JEL: | G32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79261&r=dcm |
| By: | Jerzy Paszkowski (Bialystok University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Changes result from a turbulent environment and internal situation of an organization. Rarely do changes happen spontaneously, usually they stem from decisions consciously shaped and taken by the management. Both the reasons as well as consequences of changes appear on multiple grounds and areas, often strongly interrelated. This leads to far-reaching consequences, mainly difficulties in practical operations as well as consequences for studies, analyses and related scientific generalizations and the conclusion-drawing process in both domains. Purpose of the article: Purpose of this article is to present and make a critical analysis of the existing achievements in the area of evaluating change efficiency, and indicate opportunities and difficulties in formulating new, in particular synthetic, indicators of change efficiency. Methodology/methods: Methodology applied in this paper is hypothetical and deductive. Findings & Value added: Managers need synthetic measures that are hard to develop. Various methods may be used in order to do it, starting from simple and complex point scales and ending up with methods applied in other sciences, e.g. the Geneva method or its variations applied to evaluate the standard of living and development. Still this requires the isolation of main analytical measures, their upper and lower thresholds, in subsequent change or process areas, and the application of statistical methods to calculate change status or effect. Such action requires longer change planning and preparation, readiness on the part of the managerial staff, and continuous monitoring with active participation of leaders and change managers. |
| Keywords: | change; efficiency evaluation; analytical and synthetic measures of change evaluation |
| JEL: | A11 B16 G34 D61 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no88&r=dcm |
| By: | Giorgio d'Agostino (University of Roma Tre); J. Paul Dunne (School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Luca Pieroni (University of Perugia) |
| Abstract: | The effects of military spending has on the economy continues to be a subject of considerable debate, with a lack of consensus in the literature. This paper takes advantage of the SIPRI extended dataset to contribute to the debate using empirical methods made available, or more applicable, by the extra observations. It constructs a large panel of countries for the period 1970-2014 to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between military spending and economic growth, applies the more flexible Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, and to compare the results with the more restrictive Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) method used in earlier influential studies. It also compares results from different time and country samples. Across the specifications it finds a significant and persistent negative effect of military burden on economic growth that is robust across different country groups, with the largest impact being for OECD countries. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctn:dpaper:2017-03&r=dcm |
| By: | Daniela, Georgieva; Rossitsa, Chobanova |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to characterize the employment rate, performance as well as economic and social work conditions for women in forestry sector in Bulgaria. It also aims to characterize the impact of factors affecting competitiveness and productivity corresponding to females employment, such as: formation of wages; education and training, insurable earnings for women in the sector, etc. At the end, some conclusions and policy recommendations are drown. The study is based on literature and legal framework survey, as well as on statistical analysis and individual interviews. |
| Keywords: | forestry, competitiveness, labor productivity, women, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | J0 J65 J70 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79440&r=dcm |
| By: | Christensen, Jens H. E. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Lopez, Jose A. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Shultz, Patrick (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | In the Treasury market, the most recently issued, or so-called “on-the-run,” security typically trades at a price above those of more seasoned but otherwise comparable securities. This difference is known as the on-the-run premium. In this paper, yield spreads between pairs of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with identical maturities but of separate vintages are analyzed. Adjusting for differences in coupon rates and values of embedded deflation options, the results show a small, positive premium on recently issued TIPS that persists after new similar TIPS are issued and hence is different from the on-the-run phenomenon observed in the Treasury market. |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2017-10&r=dcm |
| By: | Gregory Levieuge; Yannick Lucotte; Florian Pradines-Jobet |
| Abstract: | According to "Schwartz’s conventional wisdom" and what has been called "divine coincidence", price stability should imply macroeconomic and financial stability. However, in light of the recent financial crisis, with monetary policy focused on price stability, scholars have held that banking and financial risks were largely unaddressed. According to this alternative view, the belief in divine coincidence turns out to be benign neglect. The objective of this paper is to test Schwartz’s hypothesis against the benign neglect hypothesis. The priority assigned to the inflation goal is proxied by the central banks’ conservatism (CBC) index proposed by Levieuge and Lucotte (2014b), here extended to a large sample of 73 countries from 1980 to 2012. Banking sector vulnerability is measured by six alternative indicators that are frequently employed in the literature on early warning systems. Our results indicate that differences in monetary policy preferences robustly explain cross-country differences in banking vulnerability and validate the benign neglect hypothesis, in that a higher level of CBC implies a more vulnerable banking sector |
| Keywords: | central banks preferences, inflation aversion, banking sector vulnerability, monetary policy |
| JEL: | E3 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2017-3&r=dcm |
| By: | Dominik Zimon (Rzeszow University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: ISO 9001 with its requirements gives a company a guidance on the definition of the quality management system architecture, based on the process approach and the indications for its continuous improvement. Despite the general accentuation the benefits of implementation of ISO 9001 in the literature, there is still lacks of researches concerning the actual impact of quality management systems for improving specific logistics processes (especially in Polish organizations). Purpose of the article: The aim of this publication was to examine the impact of the implementation of the requirements of ISO 9001 for process improvement supply logistics. Methodology/methods: Empirical studies were carried out in September and October 2014 on a group of 17 companies with implemented and certified quality management system according to ISO 9001. The research tool was a questionnaire survey sent to management representatives (25 respondents) and workers (140 respondents). Surveys were enriched with direct interviews with employees of the companies. The impact of the quality management system for the improvement of procurement processes - presentation and analysis of the test results. Findings: Based on the survey it can be stated that the quality management system according to ISO 9001 in a fairly large impact on improving procurement processes. This is particularly evident in areas including relationships with suppliers, quality control, workflow and communication, both internal and external. The positive aspects achieved through the implementation of quality management system due to the fact that the ISO 9001 standard in its commitments puts great emphasis on the organization of the procurement process. Good in that supplies the organization must meet specified purchase requirements including approval processes semi-finished products, qualifications and functioning of the quality management system provider. |
| Keywords: | ISO 9001, logistics supply, quality, systems |
| JEL: | D2 D21 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no149&r=dcm |
| By: | Kornienko, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Velikova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Gulyaeva, Svetlana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pushkareva, Nataliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mitrofanova, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The establishment of representatives of foreign companies and corporations in Russia is a form of direct investment into the Russian economy. The OECD recommends that various countries tax permanent representatives as if they were independent entities. The existing tax law of the Russian Federation does not adequately cover and regulate these tax issues. The notorious Bloomberg, McKenna, Amazon, Google, IKEA, Starbucks and other cases are glaring examples of tax evasion. Practices of other world nations and countries seriously address the issue of developing measures against dilution and transfer of the tax base through the use of permanent representatives specifically in the BEPS plan. Foreign companies have the opportunity to do business in other countries without an obligation to pay taxes on the income from such business transactions. However, in order to fulfill OECD recommendations, a concept of taxation of representatives and affiliated branches of international organizations in the Russian Federation must be developed, taking into account national interests and the practices of other world nations and countries. For example, there should be an opportunity to use the term "independent entity" to fulfill the purpose of the Russian taxation system to adequately tax representatives and affiliated branches of foreign organizations in the Russian Federation and to fulfill the country's obligations stipulated in international treaties between the Russian Federation and other countries aimed at avoiding double taxation. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031716&r=dcm |
| By: | Trunin, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Goryunov, Eugene (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Petrova, Diana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study informational aspects of monetary policy and the impact of information signals of central banks on economic agents behavior. In the first section we present main theoretical frameworks which take into account the information signals of the central banks in conditions of asymmetric information, including the issue of dynamic inconsistency and key mechanisms of its solutions, channels of influence of Central Bank transparency on decisions of economic agents, the problem of displacement of private information with excessive transparency. In the second section we make a review of the empirical literature and conduct econometric calculations on the effect of Bank of Russia communication signals on the performance of monetary, foreign exchange and stock markets. We found a significant reaction of those markets’ indicators and its’ volatility on signals about expected tightening, softening and immutability of monetary policy. Our results indicate that the informational policy of Bank of Russia is partially effective. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031723&r=dcm |
| By: | Schiff, Maurice; Wang, Yanling |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of North-South trade, education, governance and North-South distance, on technology diffusion and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the South, focusing on LAC and East Asia over the 32 years before the Great Recession (1976-2007). Findings are: i) TFP rises with education, trade, governance (ETG) and imports’ R&D content, and falls with distance to the North; ii) an increase of LAC’s ETG to East Asia’s levels raises TFP by 165%, fully accounting for its TFP gap with East Asia; iii) the impact of the education gap equals the sum of the governance and openness gaps; and iv) South America’s loss of TFP relative to Mexico associated with its greater distance to US-Canada (both Europe and Japan) is 9.3 (0) percent. |
| Keywords: | Trade,Governance,Education,Distance,Technology Diffusion,Productivity growth |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:72&r=dcm |
| By: | Robert S. Harris; Tim Jenkinson; Steven N. Kaplan; Ruediger Stucke |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on funds of funds (FOFs) as a form of financial intermediation in private equity (both buyout and venture capital). After accounting for fees, FOFs provide returns equal to or above public market indices for both buyout and venture capital. While FOFs focusing on buyouts outperform public markets, they underperform direct fund investment strategies in buyout. In contrast, the average performance of FOFs in venture capital is on a par with results from direct venture fund investing. This suggests that FOFs in venture capital (but not in buyouts) are able to identify and access superior performing funds. |
| JEL: | G20 G23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23428&r=dcm |
| By: | Michaela Stanickova (VŠB-Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Economic crisis hit all the European Union Member States hard, the impact of crisis varied considerably. The low growth performance in the EU has increased concerns regarding an increasing wage dispersion, income inequality at large, and social exclusion in line with poverty. Inequality should be seen as a cornerstone of both sustainable and inclusive growth under the Europe 2020 Strategy. Social inequality in the EU is a very real problem which hampers sustainable economic growth. The purpose of this study is to introduce evaluation of social development convergence and divergence trend between EU28 Member States in the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy. The study gives an outline of the issues of labour market and income disparities and poverty. Policy-makers must be clear about what social objectives they are aiming to achieve, therefore special attention is paid to headline national goals of the Europe 2020 Strategy. The main tasks of this study is to assess social dimension and inequalities problems in the EU27 by applying Data Envelopment Analysis method, resp. time-series dynamic efficiency analysis in the form of output-oriented Malmquist Productivity Index. This study contain changes of key social equality indicators related to the Europe 2020 Strategy and compares objectives and general outlines of period 2010-2015, as well as its impact on national economics and living conditions. Results contain elements of typology premises of the EU28 and point to a large diversity in inequality patterns, as author observe both increases and decreases in inequality at the EU level. Recent changes in social inequality have been associated with the business cycle, particularly with the accessibility of the labour market and, of course, with income inequality. Additionally the development challenges are discussed for improvement of the socioeconomic well-being of the EU27 and to avoid social disparities. |
| Keywords: | DEA Method, Economic Crisis, EU28, Europe 2020 Strategy, Social Inequality. |
| JEL: | C67 E24 E61 O52 P51 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no120&r=dcm |
| By: | Monica Hernandez (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | This study is about the notion of co-operation by economic thinkers of the 19th century in the United Kingdom. It presents a comparison and contrast of their ideas as well as an analysis of the relationship between co-operation and economic and social inequality. Two approaches of such relationship are identified. First, an economic-centered view, found in Charles Babbage and William Stanley Jevons, where the benefits of co-operation are linked to profit sharing, the increase of productivity and the expansion of the economic system. Second, Robert Owen’s and John Stuart Mill’s ideas on co-operation, even though with different implications, are mainly socially-oriented. Here, it is possible to see a broader social concern that led them to suggest reforms that could have implications in terms of social (e.g., education and gender), and not only economic inequality. Marx’s analysis of co-operation does not belong to any of these approaches. In his view, under capitalism, the effect of some forms of co-operation may generate or reinforce inequality. |
| Keywords: | Co-operation, inequality, Robert Owen, Charles Babbage, William Stanley Jevons, John Stuart Mill, Karl Marx, profit sharing, co-operatives, associations |
| JEL: | B1 B19 B3 B30 D6 D63 J5 J50 J51 J52 J53 J54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:1718&r=dcm |
| By: | Bellino, Enrico; Serrano, Franklin |
| Abstract: | The gravitation process of market prices towards production prices is here presented by means of an analytical framework where the classical capital mobility principle is coupled with a determination of the deviation of market from normal (natural) prices which closely follows the description provided by Adam Smith: each period the level of the market price of a commodity will be higher (lower) than its production price if the quantity brought to the market falls short (exceeds) the level of effectual demand. This approach also simplifies the results with respect to those obtained in cross-dual literature. At the same time, anchoring market prices to effectual demands and quantities brought to the markets requires a careful study of the dynamics of the ‘dimensions’ along with that of the 'proportions' of the system. Three different versions of the model are thus proposed, to study the gravitation process: i) assuming a given level of aggregate employment; ii) assuming a sort of Say's law; iii) and on the basis of an explicit adjustment of actual outputs to effectual demands. All these cases describe dynamics in which market prices can converge asymptotically towards production prices. |
| Keywords: | Market prices, normal prices, Classical competition, gravitation, effectual demand |
| JEL: | B12 D20 E11 E30 |
| Date: | 2017–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79297&r=dcm |
| By: | Mauro Pisu (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Boosting investment is key to supporting the nascent recovery and reviving stagnant productivity. Aggregate investment has declined markedly since the start of the global financial crisis, especially in services. Italy’s investment is so low that the capital stock is now declining, hurting potential output growth. Raising investment will hinge on improving insolvency procedures, enhancing business dynamism, strengthening the innovation system and targeting incentives toward start-ups and innovative SMEs, overcoming problems in the banking sector and restarting lending to firms in addition to diversifying sources of firms’ finance. |
| JEL: | E21 E22 G21 G23 G24 G28 H20 O16 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1388-en&r=dcm |
| By: | Scherrer, Cristina Mabel; Fernandes, Marcelo |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a simple model for dual-class stock shares, in which common shareholders receive both public and private cash flows (i.e. dividends and any private benefit of holding voting rights) and preferred shareholders only receive public cash flows (i.e. dividends). The dual-class premium is driven not only by the firm's ability to generate cash flows, but also by voting rights. We isolate these two effects in order to identify the role of voting rights on equity-holders' wealth. In particular, we employ a cointegrated VAR model to retrieve the impact of the voting rights value on cash flow rights. We finnd a negative relation between the value of the voting right and the preferred shareholders' wealth for Brazilian cross- listed firms. In addition, we examine the connection between the voting right value and market and firm specific risks. |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:443&r=dcm |
| By: | Martina Skalicka, (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); Marek Zinecker (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); Tomas Meluzín (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Institutional aspects of a well-functioning private equity and venture capital market are emphasized in the recent academic literature. In particular, a favourable tax and legal environment is essential, since formal institutions enable the industry to attract a larger volume of investors and thus to contribute more efficiently to the growth of GDP. In the Czech Republic, however, legal barriers represent an essential obstacle affecting a rather poor scope of resources available to domestic private equity and venture capital funds.This paper examines the current tax and legal environment for private equity and venture capital investments in the Czech/ Republic. Proposals for prospective improvements of legal and tax framework are made in the empirical part of the study.As the phenomenon under study is complex and explanatory in nature, qualitative data with content analysis proved to be the best way how to assess institutional framework for PE/VC in the Czech Republic. Data collection methods cover a comparative analysis of scientific literature documents and reports, as well as primary data from interviews with experts in the industry. The results of both secondary and primary data analysis were categorized and core lacks in the institutional framework were identified and discussed. Finally, proposals for prospective improvements of the institutional framework are made. The conducted analysis implies that the issue of the legal and organisational structure suitable for PE/VC funds may be deemed resolved in the Czech Republic. A Czech equivalent to a Limited Partnership (SICAR), i.e. a limited partnership with investment certificates, has already with provided with sufficient support in the legislation in terms of the legal form. The legal form is a necessary, yet not sufficient condition. A tax handicap was identified implying that it is necessary to amend the tax law so that the legal regulation extends the tax exemption. Another amendment to the applicable legislation should then be directed towards eliminating or mitigating the barriers imposed on pension funds when investing in PE/VC funds. |
| Keywords: | new institutional economics; private equity; venture capital; tax and legal environment; private equity fund structures |
| JEL: | B25 G24 K23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no78&r=dcm |
| By: | Andzelika Kuznar (Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 02-554 Warszawa); Jerzy Menkes (Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 02-554 Warszawa) |
| Abstract: | Research background: UK rejects the paradigm of the role and rank of the security community and the perception of European integration as a road of no return. Economic and legal study allows to assess the reasoning of Brexit and future regime of EU-UK relations. Purpose of the article: To assess changes in perception of European integration due to Brexit and to determine its geopolitical and geo-economic consequences. The reasons of such purpose: the evolving structure of the UK, persistent trends of separatism in the UK, geographical differences in attitudes of UK citizens to Brexit. Methods: The research is an interdisciplinary economic and law study. The authors use: economic and legal methods applicable to the research. Conclusions are formulated on the basis of the synthesis of the results and approximations. Findings: Brexit changes the perception and attractiveness of European integration. Weakening of Britain’s ties with EU Members will have a significant impact on the strength of European identity. Brexit will weaken the European pillar of Atlantic Alliance. Brexit will be a factor of permanent disintegration of UK. |
| Keywords: | Brexit; European integration; transatlantic relations |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F53 K33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no57&r=dcm |
| By: | OKAMURO Hiroyuki; IKEUCHI Kenta |
| Abstract: | University-industry research and development (R&D) collaboration has been attracting much attention as an effective means to promote innovation. Also in Japan, public support has been provided to such local R&D collaboration through cluster policies. However, no empirical evaluation has been made using micro data regarding the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)'s knowledge cluster policies, which are comparable to those in Europe. Thus, using micro data from public statistics and fixed effect panel estimation, this paper empirically examines the direct effects of these cluster policies on R&D expenditures of cluster universities and firms, on the business performance (including sales growth and productivity) of participating firms, as well as their spillover effects on all manufacturing plants in cluster regions. Estimation results show that after cluster participation, 1) universities and research institutes significantly increased internal and external research expenditures and research funding from private firms, 2) participating firms' business performance did not significantly improve, and 3) manufacturing plants in cluster areas did not significantly increase labor productivity except for smaller ones with less than 50 employees, compared to their counterparts that did not participate in these clusters. These results suggest that MEXT's cluster policies promoted university-industry R&D collaboration, which, however, did not induce overall growth of participating firms' and local manufacturers' productivity. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:17037&r=dcm |
| By: | Jaroslav Belas (Tomas Bata University in Zlin, Czech Republic); Jan Dvorsky (Tomas Bata University in Zlin, Czech Republic); Jan Kubalek (University of Economics); Lubos Smrcka (University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Entrepreneurs enter into business with the aim of gaining the maximum possible profit. They are increasingly willing to tolerate the effect of a greater intensity of financial risk. Factors which influence the intensity of financial risk in a business are related not only to the securing of financial resources, but also to crucial decisions on the parts of entrepreneurs or the ability to manage financial risk during a crisis in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Aim of the article: The aim of the article is to define and quantify the significance of factors which influence, by their character and effect, the intensity of financial risk in the SME entrepreneurial environment. Methodology/methods: The selection set represented 1,141 SMEs. It was carried out in the Czech Republic in 2015. We used the “inquiring in the form of an online questionnaire” method of ascertaining data. To fulfil the main aim, we used the methods of regression and correlation analyses with the aim of determining the relationship between the intensity of financial risk and the determinants thereof. In the first step, we carried out descriptive statistics (pivot table, scatter plot, skewness, kurtosis, normal distribution plot, and histogram). In the second step, we verified assumptions by carrying out regression modelling and by testing the normal distribution of data in determinants, the assumption of linearity, multicollinearity and homoscedasticity of variables (t-test, z-test, VIF test, Bartlett’s test, F-ratio), and interpreted the results (estimate coefficient of parameters, coefficient correlation, coefficient determination). All the realised tests were carried out on a 0.05 level of significance using IBM SPSS Statistics, Version 23 software. Findings & Value added: On the basis of the results of the questionnaire investigation and using regression and correlative data analysis, we quantified the statistical significance of determinants which influence the intensity of financial risk in the SME segment. The result of key factors serves as a basis for proposing measures in the context of preventing a business from the intensity of financial risk. |
| Keywords: | financial risk, doing business, entrepreneur, management |
| JEL: | L26 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no154&r=dcm |
| By: | Hanappi, Hardy |
| Abstract: | The currently fashionable modelling tool agent-based simulation is characterized. The first part concerns the past. It presents a selection of the major intellectual roots from which this new tool emerged. It is important for social scientists, in particular for economists, to see that two relevant impacts came from neighbouring disciplines: biology and network theory. The second part concerns the present of ABM. It aims at highlighting the essential features which are characteristic for an agent-based model. Since there are currently several different opinions on this topic, the one presented here also includes some more epistemologically oriented ideas to support its plausibility. In particular the notion of emergence is scrutinized and extended. This part ends with a short recipe stating how to build an agent-based model. In the last part some ideas on the future of agent based modelling are presented. This part follows the sequence of syntax, semantics, and pragmatics. The syntactic challenges, like operators for pattern recognition, will be meat by a continuing variety of software packages and programming languages tailored to support ABM. The semantic aspect of future agent-based modelling hinges on the close relationship between the tool ABM and its object of investigation, e.g. evolutionary political economy. The need to model institutional change or communication processes will imply adaptive evolution of ABM. The pragmatics of future agent-based modelling are finally characterized as the most demanding – but also as the most influential – element that the new tool will bring about. |
| Keywords: | Agent-based modelling, economic simulation models |
| JEL: | B20 B41 C63 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79331&r=dcm |
| By: | Adekunle, Salami Saheed; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Many of the earlier researches postulate that Sukuk, being of some fundamental difference from conventional bond, offers a diversification strategy for investors and portfolio managers. However, other works have argued that Sukuk has many properties it shares with the conventional bonds and as a result it might not be a viable strategy for portfolio diversification. In essence, the viability of Sukuk for portfolio diversification remains unresolved both theoretically and empirically. This paper therefore examines the viability of international diversification benefits of Sukuk for equity investors in conventional stock markets. A comparison of the Sukuk diversification benefits with other conventional alternatives from advanced and emerging markets was carried out. Markov regime-switching GARCH model with dynamic conditional correlations (MS-DCC-GARCH) was applied. The regime-based model provides insight to possible segmentation (or integration) of these securities from global markets during different market states for weekly return series for conventional (advanced and emerging) and Islamic stock and bond indices examined. Asymmetric shocks are observed from conventional stocks and bonds into Sukuk. Compared to emerging market bonds, Sukuk are found to display a different pattern in the transmission of global market shocks. The analysis of dynamic correlations suggests a low degree of association between Islamic bonds and global stock markets with episodes of negative correlations observed, particularly during market crises periods. Portfolio performance analysis suggests that Islamic bonds provide valuable diversification benefits that are not possible to obtain from conventional bonds. |
| Keywords: | Sukuk, Portfolio diversification, Markov Switching, DCC-GARCH |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G11 |
| Date: | 2017–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79443&r=dcm |
| By: | Elzbieta Robak (Politechnika Czestochowska, Wydzial Zarzadzania 42-202 Czestochowa ul. Armii Krajowej 19B, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Entering of the generation Y on job market causes many interesting insights for both researchers, who analyze the specifics of this generation, as well as practitioners of modern organizations' management. Despite some differences in the characteristics of generation Y authors involved in this issue agree that generation Y is focused on education and development with simultaneous desire to maintain a balance between work and personal life. More often than older generations, they are willing to use the various programs, offered by company, supporting reconciliation of professional and personal life. The aim of the article is to present issues concerning the functioning of the representatives of generation Y in the labor market with particular emphasis on the issue of balancing professional work and personal life. The conducted research aimed to analyze the opinion of representatives of generation Y about the expectations associated with their professional work with special emphasis on creating a balance between work and personal life. In order to obtain answers to the research's questions method of diagnostic survey and questionnaire technique were used. To complement the obtained data, the additional qualitative research unstructured interviews were conducted. Respondents confirmed the hypothesis that for their generation balance between work and personal life is very important. The collected respondents' opinions showed the image of flexible employment, as a good way to reconcile work and other obligations, which gives the ability to have multiple sources of income and that is a good solution especially for young people and people entering the labor market. The results of the conducted interviews pointed to a number of factors, that in opinion of young workers are important values in life and are related to the maintaining work-life balance. |
| Keywords: | generation Y, labour market, work-life balance, relationships in the workplace |
| JEL: | J53 J62 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no100&r=dcm |
| By: | Sebastian Galiani; Ramiro H. Gálvez |
| Abstract: | Aggregate citation behavior plays a key role in scientific knowledge diffusion, as citations document the collective and cumulative nature of knowledge production. Additionally, citations are commonly taken as input for several influential evaluative metrics used to assess researchers’ performance. Nevertheless, little effort has been devoted to understanding and quantifying how article citations evolve over the years following an article’s publication and how these trends vary across fields of research. By collecting and analyzing a dataset consisting of more than five million citations to 59,707 research articles from 12 dissimilar fields of research, we quantify how citations evolve across fields of research as articles grow older. Analyzing raw citation data spanning different periods poses several methodological challenges; to tackle them, we employ quantile regression, a technique that makes it possible to control for citation inflation (the fact that citations have become more common nowadays) and to take into consideration the well-known asymmetry in the distribution of citations. We find that citations follow a life-cycle pattern. In the first years after publication, articles generally receive a small but growing number of citations until, eventually, they reach a peak from which they then decline. Importantly, the shape of these life cycles varies greatly from one field to the next. Given that several influential metrics restrict their input to a certain range in terms of the number of years since publication, these differences are by no means neutral and should be taken into account when evaluating researchers or their institutions. |
| JEL: | B0 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23447&r=dcm |
| By: | Katarzyna Szelagowska-Rudzka (Akademia Morska w Gdyni, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Changes in the organisation's environment require its adjustment through the process of organisational change. For changes to bring expected, positive results, it is recommended that all employees be involved. Employee direct participation is one of the most effective methods of winning them for change and leading them to positive reaction in form of cooperation, engagement and reduction of resistance. The objective of this study is to analyse the process of change of the organisational structure (number of departments) at a faculty of one of Pomeranian universities, in terms of the direct participation of the research/teaching or teaching staff in this process. The study has been conducted using direct polling. The study sample (the faculty and its employees) has been intentionally selected. It was found, that the selected employees participate in the change cycle in a limited way, indifference and resistance being their main attitudes to that change. Research results suggest, that causes of that state include autocratic style of management on the part of change initiators, little time devoted to involve employees in the process, and the negative climate caused by rotation reduction of staff (dominant internal factor). |
| Keywords: | employee direct participation; organizational changes; higher education institutions; the cycle of organisational change process, employee resistance to change |
| JEL: | I23 M12 M54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no124&r=dcm |
| By: | ONO Arito; YASUDA Yukihiro |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the impact of Japan's debt forbearance policies with regard to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) stipulated in the "Act concerning Temporary Measures to Facilitate Financing for SMEs." Using unique Japanese firm survey data that identify firms that received "financing" (such as through the deferral of debt repayments) and firms that received "debt forgiveness" (such as through a reduction in principal and/or interest), we examine the determinants and the effects of debt forbearance to test the theoretical predictions of Krugman's (1988) "financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang" analysis. We find, first, that banks choose debt forgiveness for firms that are more creditworthy and more profitable, which is consistent with the theory of debt overhang. Second, among firms that received debt forbearance, those that had received debt forgiveness had better access to new loans and showed superior ex-post performance than those that received financing, which is also consistent with the theory of debt overhang. Third, compared to firms that had not received any debt forbearance, firms that had received financing were more leveraged and exhibited worse performance, especially those whose forborne loans were covered by public credit guarantees, while firms that had received debt forgiveness exhibited better performance, especially those without public credit guarantees. This suggests that the effectiveness of the SME forbearance policy is adversely affected by the moral hazard generated by public credit guarantee programs. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17086&r=dcm |
| By: | Rita Remeikiene (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, V. Kudirkos 18-2, 03105, Vilnius, Lithuania); Ligita Gaspareniene (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, V. Kudirkos 18-2, 03105, Vilnius, Lithuania); Alius Sadeckas (Mykolas Romeris University, Economics Institute, Ateities str. 20, 08303, Vilnius, Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | Export is an important part of economics not only in a country’s, but also in international level. Over the last two decades, development of export has been one of the fastest and most acceptable strategies of economic progress. Export is also one of the ways to improve a country’s balance of payments, reduce trade deficits, and raise the general life standards. Scientific literature does not contain any unambiguous models developed for evaluation of the impact of the influential factors on the volumes of exports in the countries with similar economic conditions. Hence, the scientific problem for this research is formulated as follows: which factors have the most significant impact on export and how does this impact manifest? is to conduct evaluation of the influential factors affecting Lithuanian export leaning on the theoretical aspects of export determinants. The methods of the research include comparative and systematic analysis of the scientific literature, correlation and regression analysis. Mathematical estimations have revealed that GDP per capita and general state’s revenue from taxes and social contributions can explain the trends of Lithuanian export by 99.1 percent over the period 2007 – 2015. Crediting of private sector also showed a very strong correlation with Lithuanian export; the negative medium-strong correlation was estimated between the export and general tax level, while the positive medium-strong correlation was captured between the export and minimum wages. |
| Keywords: | export, factors, evaluation, Lithuania |
| JEL: | J11 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no97&r=dcm |
| By: | Natalia Bartkowiak-Bakun (Poznan University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | One of the major dilemmas of regional policy is the answer to the question whether the growth should be concentrated at the core or if there is growth and development potential in each territory (Barca, McCann, Rodríguez-Pose 2012, p. 149). The arguments which refer to the place-based policy stress the fact that making use of the unused potential of intermediate and poorly developed territories may actually influence the local and national level of development (Farole et al., 2011). Rural areas, especially peripheral areas, are undoubtedly the territories of unused potential. The aim of the research is to measure the socioeconomic development, including the spatial diversification leading to the development of rural peripheral areas. Development is a multidimensional phenomenon. Therefore, its level will be determined by means of the synthetic feature. The synthetic feature will be used as the starting point for identification of peripheral areas and their delimitation. The results of the analysis showed significant differences level of socioeconomic development of rural areas in the western borderland. The research findings did not show a simple dependence between rural development and the share of former state-owned farms in the communes. Areas with a high share of former state-owned farms could be found both in the group of best and least-developed communes. Due to the range of research it is illegitimate to make other than intuitive inferences. Thus, we can intuitively indicate that the following group of factors triggered the process of development and helped to break the barriers resulting from the liquidation of state-owned farms: location in an urban agglomeration, natural and tourist values as well as the activity of local authorities. The research should be continued in order to identify the factors and pathways of development in individual areas under analysis. |
| Keywords: | peripheral areas, rural areas, the western borderland, local development |
| JEL: | O21 Q15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no10&r=dcm |
| By: | Fricke, Hans; Lechner, Michael; Steinmayr, Andreas |
| Abstract: | What is the role of physical activity in the process of human capital accumulation? Brain research provides growing evidence of the importance of physical activity for various aspects of cognitive functions. An increasingly sedentary lifestyle could thus be not only harmful to population health, but also disrupt human capital accumulation. This paper analyzes the effects of on-campus recreational sports and exercise on educational outcomes of university students. To identify causal effects, we randomize ?nancial incentives to encourage students’ participation in on-campus sports and exercise. The incentives increased participation frequency by 0.26 times per week (47%) and improved grades by 0.14 standard deviations. This effect is primarily driven by male students and students at higher quantiles of the grade distribution. Results from survey data suggest that students substitute off-campus with on-campus physical activities during the day but do not signi?cantly increase the overall frequency. Our ?ndings suggest that students spend more time on campus and are better able to integrate studying and exercising, which may enhance the effectiveness of studying and thus improve student performance. |
| Keywords: | Sports, physical activity, human capital, student achievement, randomized experiment |
| JEL: | C93 I12 I18 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2017:07&r=dcm |
| By: | Barry Eichergreen |
| Abstract: | World-renowned economist, Professor of Economics at the University of California, and the author of several books on international economy and the monetary system, Barry EichenÂgreen, gave the 2017 Ragnar Nurkse memorial lecture entitled Ragnar Nurkse and the International Financial Architecture. The lecture was held at Eesti Pank on January 12th 2017. In his lecture, Professor Eichengreen gave an overview of Ragnar Nurkse’s book International Currency Experience: Lessons of the Inter-War Period that was published in 1944 and discussed whether the conclusions of the book still hold true today. The 2017 Ragnar Nurkse memorial lecture was held in honour of the 110th birth anniversary of the Estonian economist who achieved global recognition in the 1940s and 1950s. His research on monetary policy issues, international trade, international policy coordination, and development economics has provided valuable information, lessons, and guidelines. Eesti Pank started the regular lecture series dedicated to Ragnar Nurkse in 2007 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2017-1&r=dcm |
| By: | Berezinskaya, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to the analysis of the investment process in the economy of Russia with a focus on investment pause. The urgency of work is determined by duration and depth of the decline in investment in fixed assets of Russian enterprises in recent years, as well as tightening resource constraints Investment process. The work contains analysis of the dynamics of investments in the main capital, their structures by types of fixed assets, source structures Investment in fixed assets, real and inflationary Effects of investment expansion. In work the characteristics Investment process at the stages of the investment boom, corrective growth Investment and investment pause. This made possible to determine the structure Inhibition of the investment process in the Russian economy and determine the possibility of overcoming the investment pause. Additional attention in the study is given to the own potential of enterprises of the economy in increasing Financing of investment in fixed assets. The results obtained in the paper are productive for understanding the nature, and also prospects and restrictions for the process of overcoming the investment pause in the Russian economy. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031718&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Valero |
| Abstract: | 'Industrial strategy' has returned to the policy agenda, with the government recently setting out its plans in a Green Paper, and dedicated sections appearing in the election manifestos of all three main parties. Until recently, the term tended to be associated with attempts to 'pick winners' which often resulted in subsidising losers at taxpayers' expense. But every government has an industrial strategy however it is articulated: government affects the investment climate for business through tax and regulation, establishes national priorities, invests in skills, infrastructure and research, and procures outputs from the private sector, all of which influence the evolution of the private economy. What has varied over time is how far governments are willing to spell out their industrial strategy and the arguments that motivate it. An effective modern industrial strategy must be based on an understanding of market failures that are holding back economic growth, and whether these can be usefully addressed by government. It should be more than a collection of policies aimed at boosting business performance; rather, it should represent a long-term, coherent plan for sustainable and equitable growth in the UK. |
| Keywords: | UK 2017 General Election, industrial strategy, skills, infrastructure, productivity, growth |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepeap:038&r=dcm |
| By: | R. Matthew Darst; Ehraz Refayet |
| Abstract: | This paper studies optimal debt maturity when firms must use collateral to back non-contingent claims. The optimal term structure of debt trades-off long-term borrowing costs and short-term refinancing costs because the price of risk is different across states and through time. Issuing both long- and short-term debt allows firms to cater risky promises across time to investors most willing to hold risk. Collateral frictions produce a rich term structure of debt that includes safe "money-like" debt, risky short- and long-term debt, and contrast existing theories predicated on information frictions or liquidity risk. Lastly, we show that "hard" secured debt covenants in long-term debt do not affect investment or credit spreads when collateral is scarce because they act as perfect substitutes for short-term debt. |
| Keywords: | Collateral ; Cost of capital ; Debt covenants ; Debt maturity ; Investment |
| JEL: | D92 G11 G12 G31 G32 E22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-57&r=dcm |
| By: | Sumru Oz (Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, whether there is a convergence of per capita incomes across Turkish provinces during 2004-2014 period is examined following the availability of per capita incomes of Turkish provinces for this period as of December 2016. Considering that firms and households of different regions within a country tend to have access to similar technologies, share a common central government, therefore have similar institutional setups and legal systems, and they can be assumed to have roughly similar tastes and cultures, absolute income convergence is expected to hold across regions of a country. The results of the nonlinear least squares regression show that the absolute convergence across 81 Turkish provinces, which is estimated as 1.2 per cent per year, is lower that than those estimated for the US states, Japan prefectures, and the members of the EU. However, once a proxy for human capital is included besides the initial level of per capita income as a second explanatory variable in the regression equation, the speed of convergence increases to 2.2 per cent per year. This implies that once the differences in educational attainment across Turkish provinces are held constant, there exists conditional income convergence of similar magnitude found in studies on convergence across regions of other economies. Taking into consideration the evidence that the attitude towards, especially girls' education differs to a large extent between eastern and western regions of Turkey, the same regressions are repeated for 41 western and 40 eastern provinces, separately. The results show that the estimated conditional convergence reaches as high as 4 per cent across eastern provinces, while it is around 2 per cent across western provinces once the ratio of the population with 15 years of age and over who completed at least high school is controlled for. This result implies that an effort to change attitude towards education in eastern Turkey is critical in increasing the speed of convergence, thus reducing income inequality across Turkish provinces. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Output Convergence, Human Capital, Turkey. |
| JEL: | O15 O18 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1711&r=dcm |
| By: | Nazarov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sokolov, Denis (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the institutional analysis of the Russian health care system in 2014-2015 and roles and strategies of its main elements – medical centres, insurance companies, patients and etc. Economic analysis was conducted using the qualitative methods of anthropology and sociology, and the discourse method. Main recommendations contain introduction of variable schemes of cofounding payments for patients, allowing doctors from inpatient department to practice in outpatient department, development of private medicine in rural areas and in large cities, adjusting tariffs of the Mandatory Medical Insurance to the market ones and etc. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021714&r=dcm |
| By: | Ewa Badzinska (Poznan University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The complexity and dynamic changes of external conditions necessary for enterprises to function and increased competition in the local and global markets impose constant search for the most effective business model for the development of organizations. Its accurate identification and measurement influence the utilization of internal capacity of organizations, market opportunities and application of adequate instruments of competition. The scientific purpose of the study is to conduct a creative synthesis of the theoretical framework concerning business models. The empirical part of the paper is an attempt to present the conceptualization and descriptions of a real business model. It has been developed by young Polish IT enterprise for the implementation of a service for creating modern technological-programming solutions on the international market. The paper is of analytical and conceptual character. The application of the empirical method of a case study has made it possible to characterize the essence of creating an innovative business model and illustrate the progress of the studied phenomenon in business practice. The exploratory research has been conducted with regard to technological solutions offered by MindsEater Ltd. The research results reveal the existence of interdependencies between intellectual potential of staff members and success in business practice. By creating and implementing innovative business model, the enterprise must take into account the context of micro-business as well as social, economic and political environment in which it operates and the goals and mission of its activity. The conducted research is an authorial attempt to explain the concept of an innovative business model. |
| Keywords: | business models; entrepreneurship; intellectual potential; sustainability; technological solutions |
| JEL: | O21 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no6&r=dcm |
| By: | Tariq Abbasi; Hans Weigand |
| Abstract: | Digital Financial Services continue to expand and replace the delivery of traditional banking services to the customers through innovative technologies to meet the growing complex needs and globalization challenges. These diversified digital products help the organizations (service providers) to improve their firm performance and to remain competitive in the market. It also assists in increasing market share to grow their profitability and improve financial position. There is a growing literature on Digital Financial Services and firm performance. At this point of the development, this paper systemically reviews the existing (within last one decade) amount of literature investigating the impact of DFS on firm performance, analyzes and identifies the research gaps. We identify 39 works that have appeared in a wide range of peer-reviewed scientific journals. We classify the methodologies and approaches that researchers have used to predict the effect of such services on the financial growth and profitability. We observe that despite rapid technological advancement in DFS during the last ten years, Digital Financial Services being the factor affecting firm performance did not get the reasonable attention in academic literature. One of the reason is that almost all the authors limit their research to banking sector while ignoring others particularly mobile network operators (providing branchless banking) and new non-banking entrants. We also notice that newer researchers often ignore past research and investigate the same issues. This study also makes several recommendations and suggest directions for future research in this still emerging field. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.10294&r=dcm |
| By: | Roberto Marfè |
| Abstract: | This paper documents that (i) the labor-share is a strong predictor of both the value and duration premia, (ii) these premia are highly correlated, and (iii) the labor-share does not forecast the component of the value premium orthogonal to the duration premium. A simple equilibrium model with labor rigidity and heterogeneity in cash- flow durations rationalizes these stylized facts. The economic channel is a term-structure effect: labor rigidity boosts short-run dividend risk because wages are more responsive to permanent than transitory shocks. This leads to downward-sloping equity risk and to a cross-sectional duration premium. In turn, value firms earn a compensation over growth firms which is predicted by labor-share variation. |
| Keywords: | value premium, labor rigidity, term-structure, predictability, duration |
| JEL: | D51 E21 G12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:460&r=dcm |
| By: | Qihong Liu (Department of Economics, University of Oklahoma); Oksana Loginova (Department of Economics, University of Missouri); X. Henry Wang (https://economics.missouri.edu/people/wang) |
| Abstract: | Platforms such as Uber, Lyft and Airbnb serve two-sided markets with drivers (property owners) on one side and riders (renters) on the other side. Some agents multi-home. In the case of ride-hailing, a driver may drive for both Uber and Lyft, and a rider may use both apps and request a ride from the company that has a driver close by. In this paper, we are interested in welfare implications of multi-homing in such a market. Our model abstracts away from entry/exit by drivers and riders as well as pricing by platforms. Both drivers' and riders' surpluses are determined by the average time between a request and the actual pickup. The benchmark setting is a monopoly platform and the direct comparison is a single-homing duopoly. The former is more efficient since it has a thicker market. Next, we consider two multi-homing settings, multi-homing on the rider side and multi-homing on the driver side respectively. Relative to single-homing duopoly, we find that multi-homing on either side improves the overall welfare. However, multi-homing drivers potentially benefit themselves at the cost of single-homing drivers. In contrast, multi-homing riders benefit themselves as well as single-homing riders, representing a more equitable distribution of gains from multi-homing. |
| Keywords: | Ride-hailing platform, two-sided markets, network externalities, multi-homing |
| JEL: | D85 L12 L13 |
| Date: | 2017–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:1707&r=dcm |
| By: | Anginer, Deniz; Yildizhan, Celim; Han, Xue Snow |
| Abstract: | Using close to 800,000 (2,000,000) transactions by 66,000 (303,000) households in the United States (in Finland), we show that individual investors with longer holding periods choose to hold less liquid stocks in their portfolios, consistent with Amihud and Mendelson’s (1986) theory of liquidity clienteles. The relationship between holding periods and transaction costs is stronger amongst more financially sophisticated households. Households whose holding periods are positively related to transaction costs also earn higher gross returns on their investments before accounting for transaction costs, suggesting that attention to non-salient transaction costs is an indication of investing ability. We confirm our findings by analyzing changes to investors’ holding periods around exogenous shocks to stock liquidity. |
| Keywords: | individual investors’ liquidity decisions; individual investors’ rationality; liquidity decisions and trading ability; attention to non-salient transaction costs and rationality |
| JEL: | D82 G11 G12 G14 G32 G33 L14 M4 |
| Date: | 2017–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79358&r=dcm |
| By: | Vasilios Plakandaras (Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace, Komotini, Greece); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Periklis Gogas (Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace, Komotini, Greece); Theophilos Papadimitriou (Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace, Komotini, Greece) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we evaluate the causal relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty indices, inflation and growth rate for 17 Eurozone countries on a county level examination. In performing a series of linear and non-linear causality tests we find little evidence of a causal relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic variables. Thus, macroeconomic analysis based on uncertainty indices should be treated with caution. |
| Keywords: | Output growth, inflation, uncertainty, causality |
| JEL: | C32 E23 E27 E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201737&r=dcm |
| By: | Makarentseva, Alla (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tretyakova, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Khasanova, Ramilya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Supporting families with children is a system of actions (provision of services, economic support and development of institutions) aimed at improving the family's fulfillment of their functions, in particular, the birth and upbringing of children. Increasing the effectiveness of support is expressed by the fact that in more families there are conditions for the birth of the desired number of children at the desired time, and the environment for their upbringing improves. The latter implies that, in the maximum possible number of families, children will have access to medicine, high-quality nutrition, comfortable housing, education; That the maximum possible number of children will be brought up in a family environment, in comfortable psychological conditions, without being exposed to the risks of violence. In this review work, the development of economic and service support for the family, motherhood and childhood in Russia is considered. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031701&r=dcm |
| By: | Kurdin, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The process of reforming Russian industry, which has lasted for the last decade, is accompanied by a discussion on the establishment of such an industry regulation system that, on the one hand, would create incentives for market participants to invest in the development of the industry and upgrade capacities, and, on the other hand, would not be accompanied by faster growth of prices and indexation of tariffs. Traditionally, this issue is relevant for infrastructure industries, their cost of services directly affects the costs of citizens and the cost of the final products of enterprises. The paper reviews the theoretical and applied aspects of regulation of prices and tariffs in the gas industry, the methods used are systematized, the specifics of Russian practice and prospects for the development of the gas industry in Russia and the world are analyzed, recommendations are formulated for Russian authorities. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031703&r=dcm |
| By: | Ilia Atanasov (Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | The question why total factor productivity (TFP) is not equal among countries is a serious problem of the process of globalization. A simple theoretical growth model is developed in order to explain this phenomenon. The model illustrates the differences in TFP using structural characteristics and foreign investors. It also captures the connection between foreign direct investments and international technology ows by using these structural characteristics as a link between the two. This way the developed model can explain paradoxes in international transfers of capital and technologies. |
| Keywords: | FDI, growth, TFP, technology waves, Lucas Paradox |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2017-02&r=dcm |
| By: | Ndiaye, Ndeye Djiba; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the appropriateness and consequently the feasibility of inflation targeting in an economy with a dual financial system. We take the case of Malaysia, an example of a successful coexistence of the conventional and Islamic systems. The study employs ARDL bounds testing approach to investigate the long run relationship between inflation rate, real effective exchange rate, statutory reserve rate, narrow money, Islamic interbank rate and the overnight policy of Malaysia, considering the major transmission mechanism channels in the conduct of monetary policy stance. An Error Correction Model (ECM) is used to capture the short run dynamics, and variance decomposition of forecast errors is used to determine the causality direction of the variables. The periods considered was monthly data from the June 2007 to February 2017. Our results show that there is a long and short term relationship between inflation, narrow money, statutory reserve rate, real effective exchange rate and the Islamic interbank rate. However, we suggest that Inflation targeting may not be ideal in a dual banking system, especially the case of Malaysia. Alternatively, interest rate targeting is found to be most effective. Additionally, it will give the central bank more control over the Islamic segment of the financial system. |
| Keywords: | Dual Banking, Islamic Banking, Interest rate, Inflation Targeting, Islamic Profit rate, Monetary Policy, ARDL |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79420&r=dcm |
| By: | Salvatore Perdichizzi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how conventional and unconventional monetary policies announcements a ect European banking indexes returns through an event-study analysis. We use data of 11 European banking indexes for the periods 1999-2015. We examine the state dependency of such e ects and focus on the surprise elements of policy changes derived from the Euribor futures market. Overall, we nd a positive relation between the unexpected changes in the ECBs reference rate and European banking indexes returns. We also discover that the e ect is stronger during the nancial crisis, especially during the sovereign debt crisis. Moreover, we identify a positive relation between the announcements of unconventional policies and the European banking indexes returns , particularly where the banking system was more risky such as Spain, France and Italy but with a low degree of magnitude than expected. Hence, the Euro banks reactions to monetary policies announcements seem to be more relevant through conventional measures with respect to non-conventional ones. |
| Keywords: | Banking,Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy, Interest rate, ECB. |
| JEL: | G01 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def059&r=dcm |
| By: | Zlatko J. Kovacic (The Open Polytechnic of New Zealand, New Zealand); Milos Vilotic (My Statistical Consultant Ltd.) |
| Abstract: | One of business cycles stylised facts is that contractions are shorter than expansions, but less persistent, more volatile and therefore asymmetric. Investigating existence and type of business cycles asymmetry is important for analysis of economic policy and statistical modeling. Economic implication of business cycles asymmetry is that economic policy should be different in period of contractions than expansion. Statistical implication is that linear models of business cycles cannot capture this stylised fact. The article has two objectives: extend the literature on the business cycles asymmetry by testing data from 36 European countries including countries never been analysed before and test robustness of the results to extraction methods and asymmetry tests used. Quarterly GDP series from Eurostat database covering period 2000q1-2016q3 were used. Series were prepared by removing seasonal component using X13-ARIMA procedure. To assess robustness of asymmetry tests results to alternative methods of detrending business cycles were extracted using two filters: Corbae-Ouliaris ideal band filter and double Hodrick-Prescott filter. For testing the deepness and steepness asymmetry three tests were used: Mills, Mira and Sichel tests. Weaker evidence of deepness asymmetry was found in Cyprus, Montenegro and Turkey cycles where all three tests statistics for both filters have negative sign. However, only for one of the tests in each country the result was statistically significant. For two other countries, Germany and Sweden, four of six tests indicated deepness asymmetry, but only one of these tests results was statistically significant. Most of the cycles show steepness asymmetry, with exception of Ireland business cycles and to certain extent cycles of Poland, Malta, Montenegro and Spain. |
| Keywords: | business cycle, asymmetry, Mills test, Mira test, Sichel test |
| JEL: | C12 C14 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no48&r=dcm |
| By: | Ruta Adamoniene (Mykolas Romeris University); Jolanta Solnyskiniene (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University,); Lina Rupeikiene (Alytus County Police Headquarters) |
| Abstract: | The evaluation of employees and their activity requires precise and responsible preparation, it is a process, having a large impact to successful implementation of strategic goals of institution. The evaluation of official work of civil servants in Lithuania does not have deep traditions. Thus, the main analyzed problem is the following: if the criteria of statutory institution employees and their activity evaluation (possibilities and results) are significant to the evaluation results of statutory institution employees and their activity. To make the analysis of theoretical aspects of employees and their activity evaluation and to provide an evaluation improvement model of statutory institution employees and their activity. While analyzing the theoretical peculiarities of employees and their activity evaluation, the analysis, systematization and generalization of scientific literature, scientific articles as well as legislation of the Republic of Lithuania acts have been performed. A quantitative research method was used for the performance of the empiric research; and the qualitative content analysis, descriptive statistical data analysis as well as comparative analysis were used for the analysis of the gathered data. The used in this part researches methodology and results combine the identification of interconnection of statutory institution employees and their activity evaluation possibilities (leadership, people and processes) as well as measuring of their importance. Seeking for useful and effective employees and their activity evaluation process in a statutory institution, a theoretical model of employees and their activity evaluation in a statutory institution improvement was developed on the basis of general evaluation model, which has been successfully adapted in a statutory institution. Having identified the problematic fields of employees and their activity evaluation and determined the reasons of their occurrence and possible improvement opportunities, on the basis of the obtained results, a model of statutory institution employees and their activity evaluation improvement with the indicated in a research problematic fields, improvement possibilities and expected positive results is provided. |
| Keywords: | employees, employees and their activity evaluation, evaluation model |
| JEL: | M12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no117&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Gembalska-Kwiecien (SilesianUniversity of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The paper presents basic issues related to safety culture. Moreover, there can be found an information about the factors determining the desirable and undesirable, as well as the good and bad safety culture, and the most important knowledge concerning its shaping. The empirical part presents the studies on the impact of attitudes and behavior of employees on the development of safety culture. Elements were tested such as: environment and working conditions, and behaviors and attitudes of employees. Purpose of the article:The aim of the study was to analyze attitudes and behaviors of employees and their impact on shaping the safety culture in a given company.The learning goal of the project was an introduction to the opinion of surveyed employees about work safety culture in the company. The utilitarian aim of the study was to draw attention to the need of taking action to influenceattitudes and behavior of employees onshaping the areas of work safety culture in order to improve safety culture and thereby improve safety in the company. Methodology/methods:Research tools were: interview, documentation analysis and anonymous survey of company employees. Findings& Value added:The study shows that the majority of employees act in accordance withrules and try not to take risky actions, they also feel responsible for the safety of themselves and their co-workers, the environment and working conditions are in line with legal requirements, and accidents rarely occur. In the surveyed company the safety culture is high, which is proven by features such as: a sense of personal responsibility of each employee for safety matters, lack of acceptance for people taking risky behavior, compliance with health and safety regulations and appreciation of their validity – those are most frequently mentioned features of performance of high culture safety in workplace. |
| Keywords: | safety management; organizational culture; safety culture; human factor; working environment |
| JEL: | I1 D2 A3 L2 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no28&r=dcm |
| By: | Michael D. Frakes; Matthew B. Frank; Seth A. Seabury |
| Abstract: | We explore whether the composition of the physician work force is impacted by the clinical standards imposed on physicians under medical liability rules. We theorize that physicians of particular backgrounds will be attracted to regions when the malpractice laws of those regions favor the type of medicine characteristic of those backgrounds. To test this prediction, we rely on a quasi-experiment made possible by states shifting from local to national customs as the basis for setting standards at court, a distinction that captures meaningful differences in the clinical expectations of the law in light of the well documented phenomenon of regional variations in medical practices. Using data from the Area Health Resource File from 1977 to 2005, we find that the rate of surgeons among practicing physicians increases by 2-2.4 log points following the adoption of national-standard laws in initially low surgery-rate regions—i.e., following a change in the law that effectively expects physicians to increase practice intensities. We find that this response is nearly three times greater in rural counties. We also find that this supply effect is unidirectional, with no evidence to suggest that surgeons retreat when initially high-surgery-rate regions change their laws so as to expect less intensive practice styles. |
| JEL: | I18 K13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23446&r=dcm |
| By: | Michaud, Amanda M. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Rothert, Jacek (United States Naval Academy) |
| Abstract: | Government expenditures are pro-cyclical in emerging markets and counter-cyclical in developed economies. We show this pattern is driven by differences in social transfers. Transfers are more counter-cyclical and comprise a larger portion of spending in developed economies compared to emerging. In contrast, government expenditures on goods and services are quite similar across the two. In a small open economy model, we find disparate social transfer policies can account for more than a half of the excess volatility of consumption relative to output in emerging economies. We analyze how differences in tax policy and the nature of underlying inequality amplify or mitigate this result. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy; Open Economy Macroeconomics; Emerging Markets; Business Cycles; |
| JEL: | E3 E6 F4 |
| Date: | 2017–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1709&r=dcm |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | Using an original survey data of individuals, this paper presents empirical evidence on the relationship between occupational licenses and labor market outcomes. The novelty of this study is that it provides a distinction between the possession and actual use of licenses, as well as a distinction between monopolistic licenses and certifications. Occupational licenses have a large presence in the Japanese labor market. More than half of the respondents in this study hold monopolistic licenses or certifications, and nearly 40% of the respondents use either one of them in their current jobs. The use of licenses and certifications are particularly prevalent in the service sector, such as the health care and education industries. The possession of occupational licenses has positive impacts on the labor market attachment and wages of females and elderly people. On the other hand, occupational licensing may negatively affect market efficiency, through the creation of monopoly rents. While considering the importance of occupational licenses as a trend in the service economy, it is desirable to survey the possession and use of occupational licenses periodically. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17078&r=dcm |
| By: | Monica Hernandez (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | This research examines the ideas about labor unions found in William Stanley Jevons's works. I focus on the collaborative role Jevons envisioned for these organizations as part of a broader cooperative vision between workers and capitalists. Even though Jevons was not a supporter of labor unions and regarded them as monopolies with limited power to increase wages, on the one hand, and with great potential for generating dead losses of wages due strikes, on the other, he did not consider indispensable their elimination as long as they were guided to co-operate with business. This study concludes that there is more than one form of co-operation in Jevons’s thought. One explicit, from capitalist to workers, via profit sharing, and a second one, implicit, through the collaboration of workers to capitalists via their participation in labor organizations different than traditional labor unions. A major implication of this scheme is that both forms of co-operation have to be present for it to be beneficial for both classes. The latter, however, would not ensure that they are equally beneficiated. |
| Keywords: | William Stanley Jevons, trade unions, profit sharing, co-operation |
| JEL: | B1 B19 B3 B31 J01 J08 J5 J51 J52 J53 J54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:1717&r=dcm |
| By: | Wahab, Fatin Farhana; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | In theory, historical volatility gauges the fluctuations of underlying assets or securities by monitoring changes in price over predetermined time period, while implied volatility looks into the future in its attempts to forecast the movement of the asset’s price based on current ones. Option trader tends to combine both volatilities with realized volatility serving as the baseline and implied volatility redefining the relative values of the options. Henceforth, the purpose of this study is twofold; first is to investigate the nature of lead-lag between the ‘fear index’ (VIX) and its corresponding realized volatility (RVI) of S&P 500 indices. Second, we examine the dynamic analysis of implied volatility transmission across inter-market correlation with newly adapted volatility indices from CBOE, VIX, OVX and GVZ to indicate which market is leading. Contrary to the popular perception, the paper finds that S&P 500 implied volatility is lagging its historical variance markedly, and surprisingly even its price index is leading the implied volatility as well. The study also concludes that Gold spearheads the market with stocks being the most sensitive to shocks. Our findings have clear policy implications for trading strategies and using volatilities in risk management. |
| Keywords: | implied volatility, realized volatility, inter-market correlation, VIX, OVX, GVZ |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79433&r=dcm |
| By: | Aleksandra Zygmunt (Opole University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Faced with circumstances of rapid changes, the crucial is stimulation of actions aimed at enhancing competitiveness. In this regard, the European Union strategy Europe 2020 should be mentioned. Concerning the role of firms’ innovation activities in economic growth of regions and countries, it is important to explore how enhancing Polish firms’ innovation activities differ between the EU countries with a similar to Poland level of innovation. Thus, the particular emphasis was put on the Moderate Innovators countries.The aim of this paper is to investigate enhancing Polish firms’ innovation activities against those from the other Moderate Innovators countries.The study was based on data from the European Innovation Scoreboard 2016 related to firm activities dimensions: firm investments, linkage & entrepreneurship and intellectual assets. The time period was 2008–2015 and was limited by data availability. To study multivariate analysis and the zero unitarization methods were applied. These methods allowed to multivariate analysis of enhancing firms’ innovation activities in Poland and those from the other EU countries with similar to Poland level of innovation.This paper contributes to the existing literature by providing new insight on understanding the issues related to firms’ innovation activities. The results reveal, among others, that although Polish firms’ innovation activities have improved against those from the other Moderate Innovators counties, it requires further enhancing. The findings have practical and policy implications. It is assumed that the obtained results may be useful for firms, regions and country in enhancing competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | innovation activities; firm; the European Union; Moderate Innovators countries |
| JEL: | O30 O52 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no150&r=dcm |
| By: | Jolanta Maj (Opole University of Technology); Piotr Bebenek (Opole University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The so far conducted studies have not been able to answer the question of whether there is a relationship between gender composition of the board and the firms financial performance. Because of the tendency to legally regulate the gender balance of boards of directors as it was, among others, planned in the draft of the EU Directive on improving the gender balance among non-executive directors of companies listed on stock exchanges, which admittedly has been rejected, however, indicates the existence of certain trends among decion-makers, the issue of determining the relationship between gender composition of the boards and firms performance becomes an extremely important issue. The paper aims to answer the question on the number of women in the highest organizational bodies in Polish enterprises and whether there is a relationship between the compositions of boards due to gender of their members and financial results achieved by the companies. For the analysis companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange were analyzed. Following indicators: debt ratio (DR), debt to equity ratio (D/R) and the long-term debt to total assets ratio were chosen. Using statistical analysis the financial indicators were juxtaposed with the number of women on boards. The paper provides insight into the composition of boards in Polish companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange due to gender. It shows that boards of these companies are highly masculine. Nevertheless the paper tries to show if there are any dependencies between the amount of women on boards and the financial performance of the companies. |
| Keywords: | gender diversity; corporate governance; board composition; firm performance; financial performance |
| JEL: | M14 M12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no11&r=dcm |
| By: | Radka MacGregor Pelikánová (Metropolitan University Prague, Dubeèská 900/10, 100 31 Prague 10 , Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Research background: It has been one decade since the transposition deadline regarding the Unfair Commercial Practices Directive. The EU´s growth strategy, Europe 2020, and all EU member states are committed to smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth, to the single internal market and to R&D leading to innovations. These positive priorities, however, often conflict with one another. The EU crossed the Rubicon and decided to harmonize the protection against parasitic commercial practices hurting intellectual property and consumers. Is this appropriate, effective and efficient? Purpose of the article: The primary purpose of this article is to assess the appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency of the EU harmonization of the ephemeral concept of parasitic commercial practices. The secondary purpose is to assess approach(es) of the EU and EU member states to this overlap of the competition and intellectual property regimes. The third purpose is to assess the feasibility of the integrative harmonization in this arena. Methodology/methods: The multi-disciplinary nature of this article, and its three purposes, leads to the employment of Meta-Analysis, of the critical comparison of laws and the impact of their application, to the holistic perception of historical and national contexts, and to case studies. The primary sources (field search) and secondary sources (literature) are explored and the yield knowledge and data are confronted with the explored cases. The dominating qualitative research and data are complemented by the quantitative research and data. Findings & Value added: The Unfair Commercial Practices Directive harmonizes the protection of various issues, including the ephemeral concept of parasitic commercial practices. The set trio of purposes leads to a conclusion that this overlap of competition and intellectual property protection is highly sensitive and nationally particular. EU integration in this sphere is needed, but the undertaken harmonization is not fully effective and efficient, and perhaps even not appropriate. |
| Keywords: | Unfair Commercial Practices Directive; Unfair Competition; Intellectual Property; Innovation; Consumers. |
| JEL: | D18 K22 M38 O34 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no66&r=dcm |
| By: | Gabriela Kolvekova (Technical University of Kosice, Slovak Republic); Gabriela Kolvekova (Technical University of Kosice, Slovak Republic) |
| Abstract: | Urban areas are as important as rural ones for regional development. This paper observes especially the position of cities, urban areas in the context of global value chains – GVC. Global value chains reflect specialization and labour division of companies, mostly multinational enterprises – MNEs. MNEs can be considered for flagships of some industries. Such flagship influence suppliers and purchasers. MNEs are a part of networks or do have got an access to such networks that combine dispersion of the value chain the boundaries of the firm and across national borders and. The impetus of this humble work was to look at position of Slovak cities (Bratislava, Žilina) in order to look for sectors that can help to develop the city and its adjacent regions, particularly cross-border regions. The paper discussed how the attribute of the cross-border regions gives the cities more advantageous position in GVC. Applying method of location quotient allowed to shed a light on GVC, which cities participate in. Some cities were in a position to take advantage of participation in GVC. Examined cities are located in the western part of Slovak Republic. Discussion about the attribute of the cross-border regions can stimulate new ideas for finding causalities in city sprawl or in specialization patterns in industrial structure of the city. Discussion further fosters the comparison of two cities strengths and weakness of each of them that were summarized in terms of employment and industrial exploitation of GVC. It is the first finding and value added of the paper. Second one, method of location quotient is simple, but provides clear evidence on the regional development or decline in particular industries and time of observation. |
| Keywords: | employment, value chains, industry |
| JEL: | J21 Q01 R12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no45&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Cierniak-Emerych (Wroclaw University of Economics); Katarzyna Piwowar-Sulej (Wroclaw University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The 1980s saw popularisation of the management paradigm requiring that employee intellectual potential should be noticed and used. The subjective approach to employees is fully reflected in the empowerment process. The definition scope of the analysed notion has not been unambiguously delineated to date. In narrow terms, empowerment means delegating power in the decision-making process and is considered a management method. In broad terms, in turn, the idea is at times called even a management concept. The aim of this paper is to provide answers to the following research questions: Can empowerment be called a separate management concept? What is the awareness of the essence of empowerment among contemporary employees? What are the barriers to implementing empowerment assumptions in enterprises? The research process was based on literature studies and empirical research that was conducted in Poland under two separate research projects. One, carried out in the period 2006-2015, was oriented towards assessing the level of interest in employee participation and identifying the approach to implementing such participation in enterprises. The research covered over 300 respondents. It used structured interview complemented with free interview and analysis of the provided documents of the respondents’ enterprises. The results of the research encouraged a closer look at the category of empowerment. Pilot empirical research on the category of empowerment was conducted in 2016 with questionnaire surveys. The research sample was 63 employees. It was found that empowerment should be perceived as certain expansion of employee participation rather than a separate management concept. It consisted in sharing not only information but also power with employees. The results of the empirical research permitted the ascertainment that interest in lower participation forms prevailed among the respondents. Barriers related to applying empowerment were sought in this context. The pilot research allowed a conclusion that the barriers should be sought primarily in the failure to prepare (also mentally) employees and employers for using empowerment. Although the presented results of the research are not representative, they encourage further in-depth research within the discussed area. |
| Keywords: | employee empowerment, human resource management, employee participation |
| JEL: | M12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no19&r=dcm |
| By: | Faheem, Samra |
| Abstract: | Abiding to post-operative instructions properly may help rapid recovery from surgical procedure. The study aims to check the follow-up rate and compliance of patients who sternly follow the post-operative instructions after non-surgical permanent tooth extraction through health status of the socket. Study Design: This cross-sectional study involved 100 consenting patients was performed at dental OPDs of DOW University of Health Sciences Karachi. One week after procedure information about health status of socket was obtained through questionnaire and clinical examination. Data (age, gender, socket status) analyzed using Pearson’s chi square test with P-value ≤0.05 was considered significant. Out of 100 patients, 66 appear for follow-up where 34 remain absent. 66 patients who completed the study include 31 male and 34 female, with the mean age of 43.06±16.19 years from which 18 cases report poor socket status and 48 cases report good socket hygiene. No significant difference between age, gender, and socket status was reported (P › 0.05). This study showed no statistical association of age and gender with the health status of socket. Additionally, it highlights the need to properly educate patients on the effect of compliance and the various complications and factors affecting, after tooth extraction due to non-compliance. |
| Keywords: | Cross-sectional study; Follow-up procedure; Patients compliance; Postoperative instructions; Tooth extraction |
| JEL: | C12 D60 I11 I12 I19 |
| Date: | 2017–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79384&r=dcm |
| By: | srithilat, khaysy; Sun, Gang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on the economic development by using annual time series data from 1989-2016. The unit root testing result suggests that all variables are stationary at first difference; therefore, the Johansen Cointegration and Error Correction Model has been employed to analyze the association between variables. The finding shows that money supply, interest rate, and inflation rate negatively effect on the real GDP per capita in the long run and only the real exchange rate has a positive sign. The error correction model result indicates the existence of short-run causality between money supply, real exchange rate and real GDP per capita. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, economic development, laos, VECM, cointegration. |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2017–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79369&r=dcm |
| By: | Alicja Fras (Poznan University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The investor`s expectation of better performance in case of more expensive mutual funds seems natural and fully justified. However the arise of passive funds and their surprisingly good results, especially when compared to their low fees, triggered the discussion. Recent years brought more and more studies, conducted mostly for the American market, discrediting high-charging, aggressive funds. First analyses in Poland also indicate, that the level of fees is not always linked with the fund performance. Purpose of the article:The purpose of the study is to investigate the relation between the fees imposed by the mutual funds and the funds` performance. The idea is to verify, whether higher management fees are associated with top performance and whether it is rational to pay more for capital management. Methodology/methods:In the first step of the study, linearity and direction of the dependency has been explored using scatterplots and correlation analysis. In the second part the regression has been analyzed to verify the strength of the relation. One-factor models have been built with rate of return and standard deviation as an independent variables for 1-, 3- and 5-year time horizons. Moreover two-factor models, with both rate of return and risk included has been created, to compare the significance of rate of return and risk factor. Findings& Value added:The results indicated, that more expensive Polish mutual funds in 2015 tended to perform worse in all tested time horizons – both in terms of lower rates of return and higher risk. Especially unexpected are the results of rates of return regression analysis – it turns out, that within a sample 1% higher fee implied over 0.6% lower rate of return before fees (in yearly period). Nonetheless risk turned out to be more important, explaining the charges variability much better than the rate of return. Another interesting finding of the study is that merely two simple factors (return and risk) explain even as much as 60% of the management fee variability. |
| Keywords: | mutual funds; fees; rates of return; risk; regression |
| JEL: | D53 G11 G23 C58 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no26&r=dcm |
| By: | Beata Bieszk-Stolorz (University of Szczecin) |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies show that men’s and women’s situation on the labour market differs. Women’s disadvantageous position on the labour market has been confirmed by statistical data. Finding a job is just one of many causes why an individual is crossed out from the labour office register. The registered unemployed can retire, apply for invalidity pension, receive early retirement benefits or start full time studies. One of the most common causes of de-registering is the unemployed person’s unjustified refusal to accept a job offer. The above causes are regarded as competing risks of various kinds. The purpose of this article is to assess the effect of the unemployed individual’s gender on the probability and intensity of de-registering from the labour office lists due to finding a job, de-registering or other causes. The study made use of the survival analysis methods. The assessment of the probability of de-registration due to a specific cause was made by means of the cumulative incidence function. The intensity of de-registration was tested with the Lunn-McNeil model. Differences in the effect of gender on the de-registration possibility were tested with the use of Gray’s test. The study was based on individual data of people registered by the Labour Office in Szczecin. Among women, job-finding was the most common cause of de-registration, followed by the removal from the register. In the case of men the order was reversed, the most probable de-registration cause was the removal, followed by job-finding. The remaining causes were of marginal significance, both for men and women. Women took up a job more intensively than men and were less intensively removed from the register. The differences between males and females in the intensities of de-registering due to the remaining causes were not statistically relevant. |
| Keywords: | competing risk; cumulative incidence function; the Lunn-McNeil model; unemployment; gender |
| JEL: | C41 J64 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no14&r=dcm |
| By: | MIYAUCHI Yuhei; MIYAKAWA Daisuke |
| Abstract: | Existing literature documents strong empirical relationships between input-output linkages and geographic concentration of industries. This paper empirically assesses one micro-foundation of this phenomenon: geographic concentration of firms reduces the matching friction of firm-to-firm trade (i.e., thick-market externality). Using a panel of over one million firms in Japan with dynamic supply-chain linkage information, we find that (1) firms have more suppliers and customers in denser areas on average, and (2) when a supplier exits the market for unexpected reasons (identified by the reported reasons of bankruptcy), firms recover alternative suppliers more in thicker supplier markets. These two pieces of evidence suggest the importance of thick-market externality of firm-to-firm trade as a mechanism of agglomeration. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17072&r=dcm |
| By: | Tim Leung; Brian Ward |
| Abstract: | We develop a methodology for index tracking and risk exposure control using financial derivatives. Under a continuous-time diffusion framework for price evolution, we present a pathwise approach to construct dynamic portfolios of derivatives in order to gain exposure to an index and/or market factors that may be not directly tradable. Among our results, we establish a general tracking condition that relates the portfolio drift to the desired exposure coefficients under any given model. We also derive a slippage process that reveals how the portfolio return deviates from the targeted return. In our multi-factor setting, the portfolio's realized slippage depends not only on the realized variance of the index, but also the realized covariance among the index and factors. We implement our trading strategies under a number of models, and compare the tracking strategies and performances when using different derivatives, such as futures and options. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.10454&r=dcm |
| By: | Marek Kvet (University of Žilina, Faculty of Management Science and InformaticsUniverzitná 8215/1, 010 26 Žilina, Slovakia); Jaroslav Janáèek (University of Žilina, Faculty of Management Science and InformaticsUniverzitná 8215/1, 010 26 Žilina, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Research background: This paper deals with smart design of robust emergency service system. The robustness means here resistance of the system to various detrimental events, which can randomly occur in the associated transportation network. Consequences of the detrimental events are formalized by establishing a set of detrimental scenarios. A robust emergency service system is usually designed so that the deployment of given number of service centers minimizes the maximal value of objective functions corresponding with the specified scenarios. The original approach to the system design using means of mathematical programming faces computational difficulties caused by the link-up constraints. Purpose of the article: The main purpose of our research is to overcome the computational burden of the branch-and-bound method caused by the min-max constraints in the model. We suggest an iterative hill climbing algorithm, which outperforms the original approach in both computational time and computer memory demand. Methodology/methods: The methodology consists in approximation of the maximum of original objective functions by a suitable convex combination of the objective functions. The previously developed hill climbing algorithm is extended by return preventing constraints and their influence on computational effectiveness is studied within this paper. Especially, we focus on finding the most suitable form of the return preventing constraints and strategy of their implementation. Findings & Value added: We present here a comparison of the suggested algorithm to the original approach and the Lagrangean relaxation of the original approach. We found that the suggested algorithm outperforms the original exact approach as concerns the computational time with maximal two percent deviation from the optimal solution. In addition, the algorithm outperforms the Lagrangean approach in both computational time and the deviation. |
| Keywords: | Emergency system design; robustness; iterative algorithm; convex combination; return preventing constraints |
| JEL: | C61 C63 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no58&r=dcm |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | This document, prepared by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Washington Office, presents and analyzes the most recent developments (first quarter of 2017) concerning capital flows to Latin America and the Caribbean. The main highlights are: - 2017 started with the highest monthly issuance on record for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)’s cross-border bond market, with total issuance reaching US$ 24.2 billion in January. Petrobras led the way, issuing a US$ 4 billion dual-tranche bond on January 9, encouraging other issuers to come to the market. - Although the pace of issuance slowed down in February and March, the total amount of debt issued by LAC borrowers in the first quarter of 2017 reached US$ 45.4 billion, an increase of 53% from 2016. This was the second highest quarterly amount ever issued in the region.1 - High-yield issuers, including sovereign and corporate, accounted for 61% of the total issuance in the first quarter. High-yield corporate issuers accounted for a quarter of the total. - Issuance by banks and corporates in the first quarter of 2017 was 151% higher than in the first quarter of 2016 and 111% higher than in the first quarter of 2015. Issuance by quasi-sovereign corporates increased at a slower pace, and was only 16% higher than in the first quarter of 2016. |
| Keywords: | MERCADOS DE CAPITAL, MOVIMIENTOS DE CAPITAL, BONOS, MERCADOS, CREDITO, DATOS ESTADISTICOS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL MOVEMENTS, BONDS, MARKETS, CREDIT, STATISTICAL DATA |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col896:41584&r=dcm |
| By: | Martina Skalická (Brno University of Technology); Marek Zinecker (Brno University of Technology); Tomáš Meluzín (Brno University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Institutional aspects of a well-functioning private equity and venture capital market are emphasized in the recent academic literature. In particular, a favourable tax and legal environment is essential, since formal institutions enable the industry to attract a larger volume of investors and thus to contribute more efficiently to the growth of GDP. In the Czech Republic, however, legal barriers represent an essential obstacle affecting a rather poor scope of resources available to domestic private equity and venture capital funds. Purpose of the article: This paper examines the current tax and legal environment for private equity and venture capital investments in the Czech/ Republic. Proposals for prospective improvements of legal and tax framework are made in the empirical part of the study. Methodology/methods: As the phenomenon under study is complex and explanatory in nature, qualitative data with content analysis proved to be the best way how to assess institutional framework for PE/VC in the Czech Republic. Data collection methods cover a comparative analysis of scientific literature documents and reports, as well as primary data from interviews with experts in the industry. The results of both secondary and primary data analysis were categorized and core lacks in the institutional framework were identified and discussed. Finally, proposals for prospective improvements of the institutional framework are made. Findings & Value added: The conducted analysis implies that the issue of the legal and organisational structure suitable for PE/VC funds may be deemed resolved in the Czech Republic. A Czech equivalent to a Limited Partnership (SICAR), i.e. a limited partnership with investment certificates, has already with provided with sufficient support in the legislation in terms of the legal form. The legal form is a necessary, yet not sufficient condition. A tax handicap was identified implying that it is necessary to amend the tax law so that the legal regulation extends the tax exemption. Another amendment to the applicable legislation should then be directed towards eliminating or mitigating the barriers imposed on pension funds when investing in PE/VC funds. |
| Keywords: | new institutional economics; private equity; venture capital; tax and legal environment; private equity fund structures |
| JEL: | B25 G24 K23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no114&r=dcm |
| By: | Ivette Fernández; Pablo Pinto |
| Abstract: | This study measures the capital services using the latest recommendations of the Manual of Capital (OECD, 2009) for the period 1996-2014. Besides, a consistent calculation of the net capital stock is done with geometric profiles, along with a calculation of the consumption of fixed capital, for the period 1985-2015, with a breakdown by assets and by industries. Capital services correspond to the Volume Indicator of the Capital Services that we call IVSC, being the adequate measure of capital in productivity studies. The results show that the IVSC has an average growth rate of 7,2%, and its evolution differs from the growth of the net non-residential capital stock, in special from 2004, due to the greater dynamism in the investment in machinery and equipment, and its higher efficiency regarding construction investment. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchee:120&r=dcm |
| By: | Brown, Jason (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how consumers respond to local income shocks as a result of booms and busts in oil and gas development. Oil and gas development generates potentially large streams of income via wages and salaries to workers and royalty income to mineral rights owners. Changes in development may lead consumers to increase their spending depending on their exposure to income shocks. Using quarterly information on consumer debt and oil and gas activity, I find that consumer debt increased at a peak of $840 per capita in counties with shale endowment and increased drilling. Each well drilled was associated with $6,750 in consumer debt for an implied total of $2.7 billion or 0.5 percent of consumer debt in areas where drilling occurred from 2007 to 2015. {{p}} Consumers in previously developed areas tend to view new increases in activity as transitory relative to areas with little previous development that experience a shock. |
| Keywords: | Oil; Gas; Income shock; Consumer debt |
| JEL: | D23 Q32 Q33 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp17-05&r=dcm |
| By: | Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Ergemen, Yunus Emre |
| Abstract: | A dynamic multilevel factor model with possible stochastic time trends is proposed. In the model, long-range dependence and short memory dynamics are allowed in global and regional common factors as well as model innovations. Estimation of global and regional common factors is performed on the prewhitened series, for which the prewhitening parameter is estimated semiparametrically from the cross-sectional and regional average of the observable series. Employing canonical correlation analysis and a sequential least-squares algorithm on the prewhitened series, the resulting multilevel factor estimates have a centered asymptotic normal distribution. Selection of the number of global and regional factors is also discussed. Estimates are found to have good small-sample performance via Monte Carlo simulations. The method is then applied to the Nord Pool electricity market for the analysis of price comovements among different regions within the power grid. The global factor is identified to be the system price, and fractional cointegration relationships are found between regional prices and the system price. |
| Keywords: | Nord Pool power market; fractional cointegration; short memory; long-range dependence; Multi-level factor |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:24614&r=dcm |
| By: | Hanna Kruk (Gdynia Maritime University, Poland); Anetta Wasniewska (Gdynia Maritime University, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The changes that took place in the late twentieth century led to the transformation of the political system in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As a result, there has been an increase in the competitiveness of some of the economies among the CEE states. Due to different priorities and goals, these countries are also characterised by different levels in socio-economic development. The aim of the article is to identify the determinants affecting the competitiveness among the selected CEE countries. Based on Eurostat data, a set of determinants affecting competitiveness was established. A number of determinants have been eliminated in relation to the variation coefficient. At the same time, a classification of the level of competitiveness among the CEE countries has been made by using the Perkal method. The analysis used 14 selected indicators, 10 of which are considered as stimulating and 4 as deteriorating the competitiveness of national economies. The result led to obtaining a synthetic level indicator of potential of the CEE countries. Following the findings of the conducted analysis, the highest economic competitiveness exists in Estonia and in the Czech Republic, while the lowest was found in Romania and Bulgaria. The results of the evaluation obtained with the Perkal method concerning the competitiveness of the CEE countries that belong to the EU are largely consistent with those presented in different global competitiveness rankings. However, the method applied in this article seems much simpler and less time-consuming, allowing at the same time an optimal choice of analytical determinants. The selected linear Pearson correlation’s coefficient confirmed that there is a strong positive relationship between the designated values of the synthetic indicator of competitiveness and the GDP per capita. This confirms the validity of test method used. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, CEE economies, Perkal method |
| JEL: | F02 O11 O40 B23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no50&r=dcm |
| By: | Luo, Yinghao |
| Abstract: | One of the most puzzling aspects about the functioning of the floating exchange rate regime of the 1980s has been that huge swings in exchange rate have had only muted effects on anything real. To understand this phenomenon, we study the relationship between communism and value neutrality and monetary neutrality. We find that the symmetry of communism is bound to lead to value neutrality. In the case of value neutrality, the economic man will certainly accept monetary neutrality. If money is neutral in the long run then even if purchasing power parity (PPP) is not valid in the short-run it will valid over the long run. However, without considering the time factor, communism is a kind of symmetry that is almost impossible to achieve. While considering the time factor, the symmetry of communism can be achieved in theory! |
| Keywords: | communism, symmetry, value neutrality, monetary neutrality, purchasing power parity |
| JEL: | A13 D24 D3 E5 F3 |
| Date: | 2017–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79367&r=dcm |
| By: | Joanna Bialynicka-Birula (Cracow University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The dynamics of the art market is usually presented using price perspective, price indexes for the market and financial returns. In this paper the value and volume approach is proposed, that haven’t been considered in aggregative way for a longer period of time in the literature. The presentation of changes taking place in the global art market in the period 2002-2015 is the aim of the paper. The results of dynamic analysis of the art market have been presented, including the two approaches: value and volume of transactions. The impact of the global crisis on the art market has been considered. In order to present the changes on the global art market statistical indexes of dynamics (single base and chain indexes) have been used. Moreover the trend analyses have also been conducted for the value and volume of transactions on the art market. The sources of data on the global art market have come from Artprice, ArtTactic, TEFAF (The European Fine Art Foundation). In the analyzed period 2002-2015 the changes of sales on the global art market had in general increasing tendency. The value and volume of sales have reached their tops in 2007 and 2014. The art market has been touched considerably by economic recession in 2009, but in the next year it has already staged a recovery. The trend analyses have allowed describing the changes on the market by means of mathematical functions. The analyses have allowed identifying the countries with the largest share in the global art market. A particular attention has been paid to the existence of triad on the art market, including the countries of Europe, USA and China. It is noteworthy that Europe and USA have dynamically lost their market share in favor of China. |
| Keywords: | art market; art economics; art; market analysis, cultural economics |
| JEL: | C C1 D4 F6 Z11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no13&r=dcm |
| By: | Sylvain Sourisseau (ADEME - French Agency of Environment and Energy Management, University of Paris Saclay - Evry Val d’Essonne, TEPP-CNRS, Department of Economics); Jean De Beir (University of Paris Saclay - Evry Val d’Essonne, TEPP-CNRS, Department of Economics); Thai Ha Huy (University of Paris Saclay - Evry Val d’Essonne, TEPP-CNRS, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In a view of switching from a linear to a circular economy, recycling plays a fundamental role. While the literature on the effect of recycling over the mining activity is focused on a monopoly, here we only deal with a mining oligopoly, which better reflects realistic market conditions. Our results show a decreasing mining output with the presence of recycling and unexpectidly a greater market power. Nevertheless, we point out the need for recylers to benefit from a minimum recycling efficiency technology to enter the market. A second technologic threshold also allows the recyclers to lower the oligopolistic market power. In this case of extreme foreclosure, since the mining output rises with the number of firms, a cooperation is necessary to prevent the entry of recycling. In terms of strategy, an horizontal integration could strengthen their position in the upstream industrial process and would also represent a good way to step forward to the so-called circular economy. |
| Keywords: | oligopoly, market power, recycling, Alcoa case, iron and steel industry |
| JEL: | L13 L72 D43 Q40 Q53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:17-05&r=dcm |
| By: | Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo; Issler, João Victor; Castello Branco, Roberto da Cunha |
| Abstract: | Emerging market economies have historically shown high cyclical volatility when compared to developed economies. Common factor models have been largely used in economics as economic theory suggests that there strong linkages between economic activity across different industries or countries. This paper examines the short and long-term co-movement of large emerging market economies – the BRICS countries – by applying the econometric techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. Despite their dissimilarities, given the rising trade linkages among the BRICS over the last 20 years one should expect their cycles to be synchronized. Our empirical findings fully support this hypothesis. The evidence holds also for the co-movement between the BRICS and developed economies, the US and the Eurozone, which may re- flect the effects of globalization. We believe that our results contribute to give an interesting insight into the short–term dynamics of the largest emerging market economies. |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:784&r=dcm |
| By: | Marina Malkina (Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod (Russia), 37 Bolshaya Pokrovskaya, 603000 Nizhni Novgorod, Russia) |
| Abstract: | Research background: This paper is dedicated to inter-regional disparities in personal incomes and their composing by sources. We suggest that income sources contribute differently to overall inequality. Some of them, e.g. property incomes, amplify inequality, while others, e.g. social transfers, should mitigate it. Purpose of the article: The aim of this article is to determine the character, direction and strength of influence of different sources, i.e. wages and salaries, property incomes, social transfers, entrepreneurship incomes and revenues from informal activities on inter-regional differences in overall incomes per capita and their dynamics based on Russian regional statistics in 2001-2014. Methodology/methods: We used the method of relative deflating of regional incomes based on the fixed consumer basket cost, the population-weighted Theil index to measure inequality and technique of its decomposition to evaluate the contribution of various sources to regions’ convergence in real incomes per capita. Findings: For Russian regions in 2001-2014 we revealed different paths of inter-regional inequality for various sources of incomes. Decomposition of inter-regional income inequality demonstrated the largest and growing contribution made to it by wages and salaries. Informal incomes demonstrated declining influence on inequality and provided more than half of total inter-regional convergence. The contribution of entrepreneurship incomes to inter-regional disparities occurred the third and slightly decreasing, but their share in total incomes has declined. Social transfers per capita demonstrated the largest smoothing effect, but their contribution to convergence is mostly depleted. The property incomes proved to have the greatest enhancing impact on inequality especially in the period of economic growth, albeit not large by value because of small share in total income. Ultimately we revealed the substituting role of informal incomes in respect of formal incomes and existence of self-perpetuating mechanisms of reducing inequality in Russian economy. |
| Keywords: | personal income, sources, inter-regional inequality, decomposition |
| JEL: | D31 I31 R13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no67&r=dcm |
| By: | Sohei Kaihatsu (Bank of Japan); Mitsuru Katagiri (Bank of Japan); Noriyuki Shiraki (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between the price-setting behaviors at the micro level and the inflation dynamics at the macro level is an underexplored research area. In this paper, we first document that (i) a remarkable shift in cross-sectional price-change distributions at the micro level and (ii) a flattening of Phillips curve at the macro level were simultaneously observed in Japan, from the high-inflation periods until the mid-1990s to the low-inflation periods afterward. We, then, empirically show that the menu-cost hypothesis fits the price-setting behavior in Japan and construct a multi-sector general equilibrium model with a higher menu cost in the services sector based on our empirical findings. The quantitative exercise using the model indicates that the above observations at the micro and macro level in Japan can be consistently replicated within a unified model under the declining average inflation and the increasing share of services in output. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve; Price-change distribution; Menu cost; Service price rigidity; Deflation; Trend inflation |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp17e05&r=dcm |
| By: | Olena Khandii (Volodymyr Dahl East Ukrainian National University, Ukraine); Inna Semenenko (Volodymyr Dahl East Ukrainian National University, Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Armed conflict and political crisis in Ukraine resulted in significant economy decline, caused migration inside the country and unemployment, changed Ukrainian labour markets. The questions arise, if these changes bring only negative effects and if there is a chance for economy revival. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the article is to examine changes in economy structure, present state of labour market in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, changes in demography situation; reveal the main tendencies and give recommendations concerning further development of labour market of the regions. Methodology/methods: The statistical information from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, reports of International and other organizations have been analysed. Such methods as statistical and economic analysis, abstract-logical analysis, classification and systematization have been used. Findings & Value added: The population of the Eastern regions of Ukraine decreased under the influence of natural decrease and internal migrations. The internally displaced persons lost their jobs, and now they are suffering hard to survive. Many of them have to change their professions and acquire brand new skills and knowledge to become competitive. The majority of internally displaced persons are young people aged less than 30 years old. Their survival and survival of the regions are possible only on condition of existing desire of people to self-develop and self-organize. Thus small and medium enterprises and entrepreneurs start to appear in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. They substitute the existing huge industrial plants and become the main direction for labour market development in the East of Ukraine. Creation of small businesses is fully supported not only by government bodies, but also by International organizations. Assistance of international organizations should give the impetus for the search of new areas for growth and forms of interaction with the existing government and business. |
| Keywords: | labour market; small and medium business; migration; internally displaced person; crisis |
| JEL: | D74 J20 J60 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no109&r=dcm |
| By: | Tairi Rõõm; Jaanika Meriküll |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the financial fragility of the Estonian household sector using microdata from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). We use a stress-testing framework where the probability of default is evaluated on the basis of the financial margin (i.e. the ability to service debt from current income) and the availability of financial buffers. The HFCS data from household interviews are complemented with information from administrative registers. This lets us evaluate and compare measures of financial vulnerability that draw on data from different sources. We derive a set of indicators to identify households that are financially distressed and analyse the sensitivity of financial sector loan losses to adverse shocks. The stress-test elasticities are assessed separately for three standardised negative macroeconomic shocks: a rise in interest rates, an increase in the unemployment rate, and a fall in real estate prices. In addition, we evaluate the impact of a simultaneous shock mimicking the dynamics of these three variables during the Great Recession. It is found that: (1) despite there being a lot of households with financial difficulties, the risks for banks from the household sector are limited; (2) financial fragility is strongly negatively related to income; (3) the loan default rate of households is most sensitive to shocks to the unemployment rate and the interest rate, while the loan losses of banks are affected most by real estate price shocks; and (4) compared with the survey data, the information collected from administrative sources points to higher household default rates and larger bank losses. |
| Keywords: | household financial fragility, stress-testing, household finance and consumption survey, Estonia, measurement error in household surveys |
| JEL: | D14 E43 |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2017-4&r=dcm |
| By: | Juan Jung (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Enrique López-Bazo (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Matteo Grazzi (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests three hypotheses regarding the link between internet and firm productivity: i) internet adoption and use constitute a source of productivity growth for firms in Latin America, ii) the intensity of its use also matters, and iii) the link between the new technologies and productivity levels is not uniform over the whole productivity distribution. The evidence in this paper fills the gap of scarce and fragmented literature focused on Latin America, and is aligned with previous research for more developed regions which has generally recognized that Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have radically changed how modern business are conducted, benefitting firm performances through several channels, such as increasing the efficiency of internal processes, expanding market reach or increasing innovation.Our findings suggest that low-medium productive firms benefit more from an expansion in internet adoption and use, in comparison with the most productive ones. If this evidence is supposed to reflect long-term effects, then public policies oriented to massify internet adoption and promote internet use intensively will surely contribute to reduce inequalities of enterprise’s productivity levels, promoting a level playing field among Latin American firms, something especially relevant for the most unequal region of the world. |
| Keywords: | ICT, Internet, Productivity, firms, Latin America JEL classification: D22, O31, O33, O54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201705&r=dcm |
| By: | Massimo Guidolin; Francesco Chincoli |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the predictive performance of multivariate models at forecasting the (excess) returns of portfolios mimicking the Market, Size, Value, Momentum, and Low Volatility factors isolated in asset pricing research. We evaluate the accuracy of the point forecasts of a number of linear and regime switching models in recursive, out-of-sample forecasting experiments. We assess the accuracy of the models using several measures of unbiasedness and predictive accuracy, and, using Diebold and Mariano’s approach to test whether differences in expected losses from all possible pairs of forecast models are statistically significant. We fail to find evidence that complex statistical models are uniformly more accurate than a naïve constant expected return model for factor-mimicking portfolio (excess) returns. However, we show that it is possible to build simple portfolio strategies that profit from the higher out-of-sample predictive accuracy of forecasting models with Markov switching in conditional mean coefficients. These results appear to be independent of the forecasting horizon and robust to changes in the loss function that captures the investors’ objectives. |
| Keywords: | Factor mimicking portfolios, forecasting, Markov regime switching models, equal predictive accuracy tests. |
| JEL: | G11 G12 C32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp1754&r=dcm |
| By: | Adam Marszk (Gdansk University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Exchange-traded products (ETPs) are one of the most rapidly growing categories of financial products. Their fast development has been boosted by innovative features. Three main categories of ETPs are exchange-traded funds (ETFs), exchange-traded commodities (ETCs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs). ETCs and ETNs remain least known, even though their number on some stock exchanges is high. In Europe, Germany is one of the largest and most active ETPs markets. ETCs and ETNs are debt instruments, in contrast with the most popular ETFs, which are equity securities. Therefore, they offer investors different advantages but also expose them to other types of risks. Purpose of the article: The key aim of the article is to present the features of ETPs and to provide in-depth insight into the issues linked with the development of ETPs market in Germany, with the special emphasis on the ETCs and ETNs. Methodology/methods: German ETPs market is analyzed using descriptive statis-tics and technological substitution framework (employed for the analysis of inno-vations in order to evaluate the changing market shares of ETFs, ETCs and ETNs). Main period of the analysis is 2010-2016 and monthly data are used. Findings: Share of ETPs other than ETFs in the total market in Germany remains low. Even though market position of the leading products, i.e. ETFs, is still very strong, some substitution has been observed, especially after 2015. Predictions made using technological substitution model indicate that this trend (growing mar-ket share of ETCs and ETNs) will continue in the upcoming years. |
| Keywords: | exchange-traded funds; exchange-traded products; financial innova-tions; stock exchange; Germany |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G23 O16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no153&r=dcm |
| By: | Ramstetter, Eric D. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines patterns and changes of shares of the state sector, including stateowned enterprises (SOEs) and other state entities, and foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Vietnam since the mid-1990s. Because most Vietnamese are still self-employed or household workers with little or no connection to the state sector or MNEs, it is important to exclude the household sector from these comparisons. First, ownership shares vary markedly among economic activities. For example, economy-wide estimates indicate that MNEs and state sector have both been relatively small employers, but larger producers. MNEs have also become by far the largest exporters. Second, ownership shares and their trends vary substantially depending on the data source. Most conspicuously, SOE shares of nonhousehold enterprise employment and sales have decreased rapidly since 2000. On the other hand, economy-wide estimates of state shares in non-household employment and GDP declined much more slowly. Recent discrepancies between these estimates have become so large that they almost certainly result from errors in one or more data sources. There are also smaller discrepancies between corresponding, alternative estimates of MNE shares. The extent of privatization of SOEs and its economic effects are thus ambiguous in Vietnam, creating important concerns for academics and policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Multinational enterprises, state-owned enterprises, ownership, employment, production, exports, Multinational enterprises, state-owned enterprises, ownership, employment, production, exports, F14, F23, L33, L60, L81, O53 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000129&r=dcm |
| By: | Olav Sorenson |
| Abstract: | Social relationships channel information, influence, and access to scarce resources. As a consequence, social networks – the patterns of these relationships across the members of a community – influence who comes up with important innovations, whether and how rapidly those innovations get adopted, and who has the ability to commercialize them. They therefore also affect the overall rate at which innovation occurs in the economy. This essay provides an introduction to and review of the research on social networks most relevant to innovation, with a particular focus on the earliest stages of the innovation process. It then discusses the likely consequences of a variety of policy interventions that could either reduce the importance of social relationships to innovation or alter the patterns of relationships in ways that might promote innovation. |
| JEL: | O31 O32 Z13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23431&r=dcm |
| By: | Avraamova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tokareva, Galina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The material presents the results of a questionnaire survey of teachers of general education organizations (schools, gymnasiums, lyceums) in the framework of monitoring the effectiveness of school education conducted by the Center for Continuing Education Economics of Institute of Applied Economic Research RANEPA in 2016. 2206 school teachers located in urban settlements and rural areas of the Chelyabinsk region, Altai and Stavropol territories. The positions of teachers on a wide range of issues related to the general education problem are considered: the personnel situation in schools, the quality of teaching, the professional development of the teacher's corps, the requirements for the modern teacher, the material position and social positioning of teachers, and the satisfaction of teachers with their professional activities. Particular attention is paid to the question of what qualitative changes have occurred in school education as a result of organizational and economic transformations in this area, namely, whether the level of teachers' professionalism has increased in the face of increasing wages. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031707&r=dcm |
| By: | Morteza Davari; Erik Demeulemeester |
| Abstract: | The proactive and reactive resource-constrained project scheduling problem (PR-RCPSP), that has been introduced recently (Davari and Demeulemeester, 2016a), deals with activity duration uncertainty in a very unique way. The optimal solution to an instance of the PR-RCPSP is a proactive and reactive policy (PR-policy) that is a combination of a baseline schedule and a set of required transitions (reactions). In this research, we introduce two interesting classes of reactions, namely the class of selection-based reactions and the class of buffer-based reactions. We also discuss the theoretical relevance of these two classes of reactions. We run some computational results and report the contributions of the selection-based reactions and the buffer-based reactions in the optimal solution. The results suggest that although both selection-based reactions and buffer-based reactions contribute largely in the construction of the optimal PR-policy, the contribution of the buffer-based reactions is of much greater importance. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:kbiper:583449&r=dcm |
| By: | Dirk Bergemann (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Tibor Heumann (Dept. of Economics, Yale University); Stephen Morris (Dept. of Economics, Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | We study a linear interaction model with asymmetric information. We first characterize the linear Bayes Nash equilibrium for a class of one dimensional signals. It is then shown that this class of one dimensional signals provide a comprehensive description of the first and second moments of the distribution of outcomes for any Bayes Nash equilibrium and any information structure. We use our results in a variety of applications: (i) we study the connections between incomplete information and strategic interaction, (ii) we explain to what extent payoff environment and information structure of a economy are distinguishable through the equilibrium outcomes of the economy, and (iii) we analyze how equilibrium outcomes can be decomposed to understand the sources of individual and aggregate volatility. |
| Keywords: | Networks, Incomplete Information, Bayes Correlated Equilibrium, Volatility, Moments Restrictions, Linear Best Responses, Quadratic Payoffs |
| JEL: | C72 C73 D43 D83 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2088&r=dcm |
| By: | Katarzyna Cheba (West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, Poland); Katarzyna Szopik-Depczynska (University of Szczecin, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The basic question we ask is, whether it is possible to talk in today’s globalizing world about the uniform of the competitiveness of the economies. Posing such questions is particularly important in the case of such political and economic structures such as the European Union. The strategic developmental objectives of the EU include the aspiration to harmonious development of all of its members but it is very difficult task. The competitiveness of the economies is now one of the most frequently discussed topics. It is very difficult to precisely define the notion of competitiveness unambiguously, particularly in terms of international competitiveness of economies. The competitiveness of economies can be discussed both in the context of : a) international competitive capacity, b) international current competitiveness or c) international competitive standing of national economy. In this work, due to the context of the conducted research (international comparisons of the EU countries’ economies) the competitiveness of international economies will be considered in terms of international competitive capacity with regard to investment attractiveness of a country. In addition to the problems associated with defining this concept they are also important dilemmas associated with the measurement of the competitiveness. In the performed comparative analyses of European economies the research results presented within reports of „Global Competitiveness Index” will be used. The aim of the work is multidimensional comparative analysis of the competitiveness of the European Union countries’ economies. In the work to study the spatial differentiation of the EU countries’ economies in the context of their competitiveness, the taxonomic measure of development based on median vector Weber has been used. As a result the classification and the typological groups of the EU countries obtained by means of the taxonomic measure of development calculated on the basis of the characteristics of their competitiveness arises. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness of the economies, multidimensional comparative analysis, the European Union |
| JEL: | C38 O11 P36 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no125&r=dcm |
| By: | Urszula Kobylinska (Cracow University of Economics, Poland) |
| Abstract: | In this article, chosen results of the study regarding the opinions of employers in the Podlaskie province (Poland) on their perception of young people entering the labour market are presented. In particular, efforts have been made to answer the following questions: what are the reasons for not recruiting young people and what are the largest competency gaps that employers notice within this group of employees? The unemployment rate of young people in Poland in the age range 15-29, reached 14.2% in 2015. For comparison, at that time the average for the EU was higher by almost two percentage points, and the decline compared to the year 2013 was lower than in Poland. In all provinces in Poland, the unemployment rate in 2015 was in the double-digits, and the Podlaskie province had the worst indicator of all regions with an unemployment rate of 13.8% among youth. It turns out that higher education in Poland has lost its importance in the process of hiring staff. Employers are increasingly less likely to look at the educational background of candidates, as they focus more on their experience and specific skills. The purpose of this article is to present the chosen results of research regarding the diagnosis of the situation of young people on the labour market in the Podlaskie province from the perspective of employers. In particular competency gaps were identified and other reasons for not recruiting young people. this article includes analyses of desk research and results of quantitative research, which was carried out on a sample of 346 respondents among 16 companies registered in the Podlaskie province. Among the reasons for not employing young people which were most often mentioned by the entrepreneurs from the Podlaskie province in quantitative research were financial reasons. During the interviews, employers indicated the reasons for not employing young people such as "lack of appropriate qualifications," "specific skills" or simply "practical preparation for work." Employers when asked about the competence gaps of young people pointed out that they have a lack of experience, initiative and entrepreneurship, as well as learning skills. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, young people, labour market, competency gaps |
| JEL: | A11 J21 J23 J58 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no44&r=dcm |
| By: | Vincent Bertrand |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of recognizing co-firing coal with biomass as a renewable energy sources (RES) so as to meet the mandatory obligations in electricity. We provide simulations for the French and German electricity mix, with investigations about consequences for cost savings in the power sector and CO2 emissions. Results indicate that, if co-firing is recognized as a RES, coal would crowd-out traditional RES, not only with increased generation from existing coal plants, but also with additional investments in coal that would be substituted for traditional RES. Investments in coal may be more significant in France than in Germany, which may correspond to adding up to 243% of coal capacity in French electricity by 2030, whereas the same progression is 27% in Germany. Regarding CO2 emissions, we find sharp increases when co-firing is recognized as a RES. The rise is more significant in Germany due to more coal capacities. In the case of France, the magnitude of increased emissions highly depends on the share of nuclear electricity, with fewer increase when old nuclear stations are prolonged. Finally, we find that including co-firing in the set of RES reduces the overall costs associated with managing the power system. We also balanced the cost saving for the power sector with the increased social cost from higher CO2 emissions. Results show that the cost saving is dominated by the increased carbon cost for the society if the carbon valuation is around 100 Euros per tCO2, except in France when old nuclear stations are prolonged. |
| Keywords: | Co-firing, Biomass, Renewable electricity obligation, Electricity mix, CO2 emissions, Social cost of carbon |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1704&r=dcm |
| By: | Guy Uziel; Ran El-Yaniv |
| Abstract: | Online portfolio selection research has so far focused mainly on minimizing regret defined in terms of wealth growth. Practical financial decision making, however, is deeply concerned with both wealth and risk. We consider online learning of portfolios of stocks whose prices are governed by arbitrary (unknown) stationary and ergodic processes, where the goal is to maximize wealth while keeping the conditional value at risk (CVaR) below a desired threshold. We characterize the asymptomatically optimal risk-adjusted performance and present an investment strategy whose portfolios are guaranteed to achieve the asymptotic optimal solution while fulfilling the desired risk constraint. We also numerically demonstrate and validate the viability of our method on standard datasets. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.09800&r=dcm |
| By: | J. T. Manhire |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the possibility that asset prices, especially those traded in large volume on public exchanges, might comply with specific physical laws of motion and probability. The paper first examines the basic dynamics of asset price displacement and finds one can model this dynamic as a simple harmonic oscillator at local "slices" of elapsed time. Based on this finding, the paper theorizes that price displacements are constrained, meaning they have extreme values beyond which they cannot go when measured over a large number of sequential periods. By assuming price displacements are also subject to the principle of stationary action, the paper explores a method for measuring specific probabilities of future price displacements based on prior historical data. Testing this theory with two prevalent stock indices suggests it can make accurate forecasts as to constraints on extreme price movements during market "crashes" and probabilities of specific price displacements at other times. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.09965&r=dcm |
| By: | Zaneta Simanaviciene (Mykolas Romeris University, Lithuanian Sports University); Virgilijus Dirma (Mykolas Romeris University, Lithuanian Sports University); Arturas Simanavicius (Mykolas Romeris University, Lithuanian Sports University) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Most of the studies and their authors focus on the social and economic impacts of energy-saving behavior. But they do not focus on psychological factors affecting the efficiency of energy consumption in households. Lithuania has a lack of a unified and justified opinion on psychological factors that affect the energy efficiency of households. Purpose of the article: to identify the psychological factors that influence energy efficiency in households and to identify the appropriate measures changing the individual’s energy consumption behavior. Methodology/methods: was based on analysis of scientific literature and expert evaluation, when the exerts selected the most influencing psychological factors. Expert valuation also allowed to set the right conditions in which individuals are more easily assimilated by means of energy saving. The correlation and regression analysis allowed to identify a variety of factors, including the psychological impact strength. Findings: Performed analysis of variety of factors that influence household energy consumption allowed to formulate conclusions that in most cases, economic and technological factors significantly influence household energy consumption, increased energy-efficient equipment production and supply is causing an energy consumption growth in households because they are more inclined to buy and use more efficient electrical equipment, which leads to the growth of energy consumption in households. An investigation showed that the energy consumption of households is strongly influenced by some cultural and psychological factors: the greater public openness to innovation, the households tend to use energy more efficiently. Also, a significant impact on energy consumption has some psychological indicators - frequently the more pronounced neuroticism or extraversion rate. Since the research was performed only in Lithuania, in the future it will seek to carry out an investigation in several countries and to compare a various factor on the proposed measures and the efficiency of household energy consumption. |
| Keywords: | psychological factors; efficient use of electricity; households |
| JEL: | D1 C92 Q43 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no112&r=dcm |
| By: | Balandina, Galina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Expert assessments of the effectiveness of customs control and mesures taken during its implementation show the need for the reform of the management model in the customs business. The implemented methods and methods of customs control contain elements of administrative pressure, corruption, unfair competition. The system of risk and management analysis has formed the basis for reforming customs services in many countries around the world since the 1980s and 1990s and has shown positive results. The introduction of the main elements of this system in Russia and the EEMP along with other Improvement of the customs business will raise the customs administration to a qualitatively new level and help reduce the shadow economy. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041712&r=dcm |
| By: | Marcin Niemiec (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Anna Szelag-Sikora (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Jakub Sikora (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Michal Cupial (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Joanna Rorat (University of Agriculture in Krakow) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Local development is a harmonized and systematic activity of the local community, local authorities and other entities operating in a municipality, aimed at creating and improving the usability of existing municipalities. The primary factor in the local development is investments undertaken by the municipality. The financial reflection of these activities is the amount of investment expenditure. The amount of a municipality's income, its development strategy and the expectations of the local communities influence both the level of investment expenditure and structure, which is diversified both in terms of time and space. Purpose of the article: The aim of the study was to determine the spatial distribution of total funds allocated for investment, and investments in transport and communications in the municipalities of Slaskie Voivodship. Spatial relationship was also determined with the Moran's I statistic. The scope of work included creating a spatial database of the examined region at the level of basic local government units, i.e. 167 municipalities. The data were obtained from the studies of official statistics for the years 2008, 2011 and 2014. Methodology/methods: Based on information contained in attribute data sheets, along with the postal codes of municipalities, a spatial database was created in the program ArcView. The analyzed maps were prepared in the GIS program ArcView. For better illustration and reading of detailed data from the prepared maps, the attribute variables were divided into groups using the Jenks method. With it, classes could be determined by comparing the sum of the squares of the differences. The developed classes can also be called a natural border of the division. Based on the prepared spatial database, an analysis was performed with the program R-cran, using Moran's I statistics. Moran's I statistic determines the differences and similarities between the two objects, and allows analyzing the researched area.Findings: With relation to the analysis of the total funds allocated for investment, the least among the investment periods studied was the year 2008. Noticeable in this period is the largest number of municipalities included in class I (142 municipalities), with the investment range 0 - 6,510,016.26 zloty. The developed spatial distribution shows that municipalities concentrated in the central part of the voivodship make up an island of high investment funds. These communes are located in the Upper Silesia Agglomeration, with a high population density. High values are also noticeable in large urban centers such as Czestochowa in the north of the voivodship, and Bielsko-Biala in the south. |
| Keywords: | investment funds, municipality, spatial autocorrelation, GIS, Moran's I statistics |
| JEL: | C19 H76 R12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no157&r=dcm |
| By: | D.A. Shelestova (Volgograd State University, Russia); M.S. Tolstel (Volgograd State University, Russia); E.S. Starostina (Volgograd State University, Russia) |
| Abstract: | Research background: In modern conditions the international integration processes act as pledge of a sustainable development of the states, activization of investment cooperation, implementation of joint perspective projects. The emergence of new international economic integration organizations predetermines the need to rethink the patterns of development models of international economic integration processes, especially in the context of their impact on the economies of the participating countries. The analysis methods for assessing the effects of the international economic integration (Bergeijk, Brakman (2010), Blomstrom, Kokko (1997), Kepaptsoglou, Karlaftis, Tsamboulas (2010), Michalopoulos, Tarr (1997), Plummer, Cheong, Hamanaka (2010), Zwinkels, Beugelsdijk (2010), Vinokurov (2010) shows that none of them alone doesn’t allow a comprehensive assessment of the regional integration effects. Therefore, in the presence of statistical and other relevant information necessary to use the methods of quantitative analysis in the complex, taking into account their strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and constraints. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the study is to develop the theoretical foundations and development of methodology for assessing the impact of international economic integration in the socio-economic development of the participating countries (for example, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)). Methodology/methods: The authors created methodological approach to the study of influence of international economic integration on development of the EAEU members based on reaching of target indexes of international movement of goods, services and factors of production. Findings & Value added: Depending on the value of the integral indicator, the authors list four levels of the economic potential of the countries participating in the EAEU. The presented methodological approach allows to early diagnose problem areas and to choose from a variety of management solutions for its improvement. |
| Keywords: | international economic integration, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), economic development, globalization, economic potential |
| JEL: | C18 F02 F15 F36 F63 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no110&r=dcm |
| By: | Ivan Kostadinovic (Faculty of Law, Security and Management, Serbia); Azra H. Hanic (South Ural State University (National Research Univeristy), Russia); Evgeny Starikov (Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Perm, Russia) |
| Abstract: | In the search for additional data, which would enable the conclusion on the implementation of the principle of fairness in the distribution of rewards as one of the key ethical concepts in relations between employers and employees, a survey was conducted, which entailed the corresponding proportional number of respondents from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, to enable comparison of results. On the basis of secondary data, this research started from the assumption that the principle of Procedural justice in the distribution of income in Serbia and B&H has been insufficiently applied in practice in organizations in these two countries. It has been assumed that the ownership structure of the company (organization) affects the degree of implementation of the principles of fairness. The aim of this paper is to identify elements of the system of rewards which determine the perception of fairness among employees and to what extent they are implemented in organizations in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In this paper the authors are looking for the identification of elements that form the basis of fairness in the distribution of rewards and their importance for the perception of fairness. Methodologically, the paper is based on the analysis of the existing literature, secondary sources and statistically processed results of the survey conducted in 328 organizations in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The results of this analysis indicate that the elements of fairness in distribution of rewards were neglected in the organizations analyzed in this research. According to the presented data of the research conducted on the sample of 325 respondents in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina hypotheses are confirmed that the principles of procedural justice are not sufficiently applied in organizations in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Their application depends on the form of ownership. Low perception of procedural practice in distribution of rewards may have negative impact on business results, which can be the subject of some future research. |
| Keywords: | fairness, rewards, employees, organizational justice, behavior |
| JEL: | M12 M50 M51 M54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no138&r=dcm |
| By: | Khromov, Michael (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The problems of regional banks are not given due attention in any strategic document of the Bank of Russia and the Government of the Russian Federation. In the academic literature, the topic of regional banks was not raised until the middle of 2016, when the Bank of Russia resumed the discussion. This research is devoted to the banking sector of the Urals Federal District and to credit organizations operating in the regions of this Federal District. The study is characterized by detailed portraits of banks registered in the UFD: a description of their history, information on shareholders and management, the characteristics of the main business, the analysis of financial indicators. The study presents not only the results of a survey of the views of UFD bankers on their assessment of the state of the banking business, but also a comparison of opinions with results in other federal districts. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021718&r=dcm |
| By: | Agnieszka Malkowska (Cracow University of Economics, Poland); Agnieszka Telega (Cracow University of Economics, Poland); Michal Gluszak (Cracow University of Economics, Poland); Bartlomiej Marona (Cracow University of Economics, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Real estate and urban economics literature is abundant in studies discussing various types of property taxes and their characteristics. Growing area of research focused on tax equity, tax competition, and tax mimicking. Recently, due to substantial developments in spatial and regional economics more attention was drawn to spatial effects. Empirical results are focused on spatial interaction and diffusion effects, hierarchies of place and spatial spillovers. Property tax system in Poland differs from those utilized in the majority of developed countries. As a consequence, property tax policy at local government level (including tax competition and tax mimicking effects) in Poland can differ substantially from those found in previous research in US and other European countries. There are few studies addressing the problem of tax competition and tax mimicking in Poland from empirical perspective. Purpose of the article: In the article we explore spatial dependences in property taxation. We identify clustering or dispersion of high and low values of the tax rates within major metropolitan areas in Poland. The effects can indicate presence of tax mimicking among municipalities in given metropolitan areas. Methodology/methods: We analyze the panel data from 304 municipalities in 10 metropolitan areas in Poland from year 2007 to 2016. The data covers four property tax rates: (1) on residential buildings (2) on buildings used for business purpose (3) on land used for business purpose (4) on land for other uses. To explore spatial distribution of rates we used global and local spatial autocorrelation indicators (Moran’s I statistic and LISA). Findings: The results suggest the presence of spatial correlation within metropolitan areas. We also found significant differences between metropolitan areas. The results of the study fill the gap in empirical research concerning property tax mimicking in Poland. |
| Keywords: | tax autonomy; property taxation; tax mimicking; spatial interdependence; Poland |
| JEL: | H2 H71 R5 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no69&r=dcm |
| By: | Bracha Efroni (Poznan University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Today countries have realized the importance ofsmall and medium enterprises (SMEs) to economic and social development. Entrepreneurship currently provides the most critical source of economic growth for countries. In most countries women own about 30% of small businesses. Since small businesses are the pillar of the economy, entrepreneurship is its growth engine, and women constitute about 50% of the population, it is important to research businesses and entrepreneurship among women so as to strengthen the economy. Women who decide to engage in entrepreneurship encounter many challenges, during both the establishment and management of the venture. Some of these challenges are shared by both male and female entrepreneurs, while some are relevant only to women. Purpose of the article: Since female entrepreneurship is extremely vital to a country’s economy, entrepreneurship among women must be encouraged. To do this, it is first necessary to understand the gaps between male and female entrepreneurs. Such gaps can only be reduced bycontinuing to research their origin and how they can be decreased. Methodology/methods: This article is based on literary research focusing on the differences between male and female entrepreneurship. Nearly one hundred articles, reports, and books were reviewed. The study results were synthesized on the basis of 40 works. Findings & Value added: Three main types of entrepreneurial gaps were found between women and men: social capital, financing capital, and human capital. The gender gap in entrepreneurship is explained in women’s structural disadvantages regarding the achievement of the resources relevant to the success of the business. |
| Keywords: | female entrepreneurship; gender gap; human capital; financing capital; social capital |
| JEL: | L26 J16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no24&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Wojcik (University of Warsaw, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Poland and Spain share many common features resulting both from similarities of historical experience and also cultural, political, socio-demographic factors. Both countries have similar area, population and GDP structure. They also share historical experience related to political and economic transformation after a long period of non-democratic, centralized governments. Therefore the experience of Spanish membership in the EU is often considered as a model for Poland. The purpose of this research is to perform a comparative empirical analysis of income convergence processes in Poland and Spain on a regional level (NUTS3). We aim to verify if and how these processes are related to one another (show similar paths). Special attention is paid to the periods after accession of these countries to the EU. Convergence patterns in both countries are compared with several tools. Spatial econometric model for absolute beta convergence, sigma convergence indicators and the analysis of distribution dynamics – transition matrices. The impact on EU accession on income convergence in Spain was positive both on a national and regional level. Regional convergence processes sped-up and interregional disparities decreased. The poorest subregions had relatively high probability to increase their income and catch-up with initially more developed regions. In the first decade after accession to EU Poland has also achieved a significant improvement of income indicators on a national level. However, empirical analyses of GDP per capita distribution and its dynamics on a regional level in Poland show that the above mentioned progress does not spread out proportionally on all regions. Neither beta nor sigma convergence is observed. Instead, relatively fastest growth of initially richest regions (mostly large cities) introduces convergence of clubs leading to polarization. EU accession accelerated divergence processes in Poland. |
| Keywords: | Poland vs Spain, parallel regional convergence, convergence of clubs, distribution dynamics, spatial model |
| JEL: | O15 P25 R11 C21 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no143&r=dcm |
| By: | Jieun Lee (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | The price comparability provision of ChinaÕs accession protocol recognizes that WTO members may face special difficulty in determining subsidies and dumping from China, due to its governmentÕs pervasive intervention in the economy. The provision permits importing members to disregard domestic prices or costs in China and to use alternative benchmarks in determining the normal value of Chinese exports. Consequently, this so-called nonmarket economy methodology tends to inflate antidumping and countervailing duty rates. Certain paragraphs of the provision determining dumping expire on 11 December 2016, and yet the heated debate on ChinaÕs economic status post-December 2016 remains ongoing. This paper studies the history of U.S. trade remedy actions against nonmarket economies and traces recent developments and findings at the WTO dispute settlement body. Congressional history shows that antidumping regulations in the U.S. have been constantly amended to catch up with agency practices that discriminate against nonmarket economies. Meanwhile, the Department of Commerce recently started to apply countervailing duties on Chinese imports and has finally codified such practices into law. The paper offers many reasons to believe that the U.S. is equipped with various trade remedy measures to continue Ôspecial treatmentÕ against China, even if the country graduates from a nonmarket economy status. |
| Keywords: | non-market economy status, anti-dumping |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2016–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mie:wpaper:657&r=dcm |
| By: | Ernesto Zangari (Banca d'Italia); Antonella Caiumi (European Commission); Thomas Hemmelgarn (European Commission) |
| Abstract: | Tax uncertainty typically derives from institutional flaws of the tax policy process and unclear tax rules at the domestic level. At the international level tax uncertainty has its roots in the lack of tax coordination and cooperation between countries, as well as in the increased globalization and the emergence of new business models. Uncertainty may have negative effects on investment, trade and compliance. In this paper, we discuss the main sources of tax uncertainty, review the economic and empirical literature on the effects of tax uncertainty, and examine the policy measures to tackle the issue at the domestic level and the recent policy initiatives at the international level, with a focus on the EU. This survey concludes that to improve tax certainty policy makers should focus their attention on planning tax reforms and tax changes properly, clearly communicating their content and timing, and more generally establishing a structured approach in managing the tax policy process. At the international level, the best policy answers are boosting the cooperation on tax matters, developing common approaches to fighting aggressive tax planning, as well as agreeing on a clear and sustainable distribution of tax revenues for cross-border investment and more generally on a transparent and non-harmful tax competition. |
| Keywords: | taxation, European Union, corporate taxation, uncertainty, investment, tax avoidance |
| JEL: | H20 H25 H26 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxpap:0067&r=dcm |
| By: | Dombrovskiy, Vladislav (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Khachatryan, George (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Omelyanovsky, Vitaly (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Experts in the field of evidence-based medicine have repeatedly noted the questionable advisability of certain methods of medical examination in the Russian Federation, due to the lack of information to assess the real benefits of ongoing activities (that is, their impact on public health) and the need for a well-founded approach to the mechanisms for the formation of programs of medical examination. It should be recognized that the distinction of true screening from early detection of diseases within the domestic program of clinical examination is the availability of clear Developed criteria that determine the feasibility of its application from both a medical and an economic point of view. In this connection, the experience of economically developed countries is of interest from the point of view of the implementation of programs for the early detection of chronic non-infectious diseases in adults, which can be useful for the formulation of proposals for the optimization of existing programs of medical examination in the Russian Federation. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021716&r=dcm |
| By: | Wioleta Kucharska (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland); Karol Flisikowski (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Brands are considered to be the most valuable asset of a company. Some of them achieve spectacular global results. The significance of global brands is proved by the fact that their value is often greater than the sum of all company’s net assets. Purpose of the article: The aim of this article is to highlight that brand value does not only create company’s value but also leverages economies. We claim that even though global brands are sold worldwide they more strongly contribute to the development of economies in the countries where these brands’ owners are located. Methodology/methods: Based on 500 Brandirectory, the most Valuable Global Brands ranking powered by Brand Finance, we have discovered a spatial-economic autocorrelation to illustrate the potential interdependency between GDP and brand value which constitutes a foundation for further construction of a spatial regression model. Because the ranking data was only available for the year 2014, the analyses were performed for 33 selected countries. Findings: Our findings confirm the hypothesis that assumptive spatial dependencies matter for the investigated relationship between brand value and GDP. The evidence is based on the spatial error and the spatial lag model, although the former has a slightly better performance than the latter alternative. |
| Keywords: | GDP; brand value; spatial economics |
| JEL: | F63 M31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no53&r=dcm |
| By: | Georgiadis, Georgios (European Central Bank); Jancokova, Martina (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | Financial globalisation and spillovers have gained immense prominence over the last two decades. Yet, powerful cross-border financial spillover channels have not become a standard element of structural monetary models. Against this background, we hypothesise that New Keynesian DSGE models that do not feature powerful financial spillover channels confound the effects of domestic and foreign disturbances when confronted with the data. We derive predictions from this hypothesis and subject them to data on monetary policy shock estimates for 29 economies obtained from more than 280 monetary models in the literature. Consistent with the predictions from our hypothesis we find: Monetary policy shock estimates obtained from New Keynesian DSGE models that do not account for powerful financial spillover channels are contaminated by a common global component; the contamination is more severe for economies that are more susceptible to financial spillovers in the data; and the shock estimates imply implausibly similar estimates of the global output spillovers from monetary policy in the US and the euro area. None of these findings applies to monetary policy shock estimates obtained from VAR and other statistical models, financial market expectations and the narrative approach. |
| JEL: | C50 E52 F42 |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:314&r=dcm |
| By: | Jorge Fernández; Pedro Roje; Francisco Vásquez |
| Abstract: | Credit to the non-financial sector is relevant for the financial stability of a country. This paper presents the evolution of the indebtedness of non-banking firms in Chile based on micro data from different sources between 2009 and 2016. This database allows us to differentiate firms by sources of financing, size and economic sector. The main results are: i) firms that do not report to the SVS and only use local financing concentrate the bulk of the local bank credit, ii) among the remaining firms, debt growth is mainly explained by external funding sources and iii) between 2012 and 2015, most of debt growth has occurred in those firms that start with high amounts of debt, as a result of the issuance of external bonds and obligations associated with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchee:121&r=dcm |
| By: | Erhan Bayraktar; Alexander Munk |
| Abstract: | Oft-cited causes of mini-flash crashes include human errors, endogenous feedback loops, the nature of modern liquidity provision, fundamental value shocks, and market fragmentation. We develop a mathematical model which captures aspects of the first three explanations. Empirical features of recent mini-flash crashes are present in our framework. For example, there are periods when no such events will occur. If they do, even just before their onset, market participants may not know with certainty that a disruption will unfold. Our mini-flash crashes can materialize in both low and high trading volume environments and may be accompanied by a partial synchronization in order submission. Instead of adopting a classically-inspired equilibrium approach, we borrow ideas from the optimal execution literature. Each of our agents begins with beliefs about how his own trades impact prices and how prices would move in his absence. They, along with other market participants, then submit orders which are executed at a common venue. Naturally, this leads us to explicitly distinguish between how prices actually evolve and our agents' opinions. In particular, every agent's beliefs will be expressly incorrect. As far as we know, this setup suggests both a new paradigm for modeling heterogeneous agent systems and a novel blueprint for understanding model misspecification risks in the context of optimal execution. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.09827&r=dcm |
| By: | Carvalho, Antonio Gledson de; Pinheiro, Roberto Benjamin; Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira |
| Abstract: | We provide conjectures for what caused the price spiral and the high underpricing of the dotcom bubble of 1999–2000. We raise two conjectures for the price spiral. First, given the uncertainty about the growth opportunities generated by the new technologies and their spillover effects across technology industries, investors saw the inflow of a large number of high-growth firms as a sign of high growth rates for the market as a whole. Second, investors interpreted the wave of highly underpriced IPOs as an opportunity to obtain gains by investing in newly public companies. The underpricing resulted from the emergence a large cohort of firms racing for market leadership. Fundamentals pricing at the IPO was part of their strategy. We provide evidence for our conjectures. We show that returns on NASDAQ composite index are explained by the flow of high-growth (or highly underpriced) IPOs; the high underpricing can be fully explained by firms’ characteristics and strategic goals. We also show that, contrary to alternatives explanations, underpricing was not associated with top underwriting, there was no deterioration of issuers’ quality, and top underwriters and analysts became more selective. |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:441&r=dcm |
| By: | Davig, Troy A. (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City); Foerster, Andrew T. (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) |
| Abstract: | Sixty-two countries around the world use some form of inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework, though none of these countries express explicit policy rules. In contrast, models of monetary policy typically assume policy is set through a rule such as a Taylor rule or optimal monetary policy formulation. Central banks often connect theory with their practice by publishing inflation forecasts that can, in principle, implicitly convey their reaction function. We return to this central idea to show how a central bank can achieve the gains of a rule-based policy without publicly stating a specific rule. {{p}} The approach requires central banks to specify an inflation target, tolerance bands, and provide economic projections. Thus, when inflation moves outside the band, inflation forecasts provide a time frame over which inflation will return to within the band. We show how this approach replicates and provides the same information as a rule-based policy. |
| JEL: | E4 E43 E5 E61 |
| Date: | 2017–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp17-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Wojciech Idzikowski (University School of Physical Education in Wroclaw, Poland); Igor Perechuda (University School of Physical Education in Wroclaw) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Last decades may undoubtedly be deemed as the period of exceptional transformation which has global dimension. One of its elements is the reorganisation of traditional ways of business management. Therefore, agile approach is more and more often one of the key aspects of building comparative advantage of a company. In this paper agile approach is understood as the capability of responding promptly to market’s needs. Purpose of the article: The paper aims at presenting selected research findings concerning the description of agile approach usage in organisations. The main authors’ objective is to present the way the transformation of organization is done or may be done with reference to agile approach. Methodology/methods: The paper comprises three parts. The first includes the results of analysis of literature concerning agile approach, where the authors make an attempt to answer the question: what are scientific studies in that regard? The literature analysis in that regard was conducted during academic internship at Shippensburg University, USA in 2016 and was based on the resources of its library. The second presents the findings of research done between 2005 and 2016 where case studies analyses of almost 50 companies in Poland and not only were conducted. In the last part of the paper, on the basis of the findings in the second part, the authors present a referencing process, which could in some cases increase the agility of organizational activities. Findings: The empirical studies show the differences in using selected agile activities for organizations from IT and other sectors. On this basis the last part of paper includes the referencing process, which in some cases could increase the agility of organizational activities. The authors are aware of the fact that the before mentioned referencing process is subject to quantitative verification which in turn will identify determinant of its usage; however, this is to be conducted in the next phase of research. In this phase the research of comparative-explorative nature as well as qualitative is presented. |
| Keywords: | Marketing; Agile approach; Processes; IT; Strategic management |
| JEL: | M31 M15 M10 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no89&r=dcm |
| By: | Grégory Claeys; Konstantinos Efstathiou |
| Abstract: | After reaching historically low levels in the first half of 2016, European long-term sovereign yields experienced a notable increase in the second half of 2016 and at the beginning of 2017, before stabilising in the last few months. The nominal long-term interest rate can be decomposed into the following components - a risk-free rate, various premia to compensate investors for future inflation and potential defaults, and a term premium. All of these components have been on a downward trend over the last few years. But some of these trends might have reversed in the second half of 2016, leading to an increase in long-term yields. Understanding the main factors driving interest rates higher in recent months is important. If the rise in interest rates is driven by good news for the economic outlook for the euro area, it would represent a welcome normalisation of the European situation. However, if higher rates are unjustified by economic fundamentals (ie higher growth and inflation expectations), it would represent an unwarranted tightening of financial conditions that could jeopardise the recovery. In fact, the recent movement in sovereign yields in the euro area has resulted from the combination of several factors - 1) a rise in country-specific risks arising mainly from political uncertainty in some euro-area countries; 2) a revision of market expectations for inflation, growth and the path of future interest rates because of good news about the recovery in the euro area; 3) spill-overs from increasing yields in the US coming from the normalisation of monetary policy by the Fed and a potential fiscal policy shift by the new administration; and 4) an increase in the term premium reflecting uncertainty around markets’ expectations. The recent rise is thus mainly driven by good news and does not represent a strong tightening of financial conditions for euro-area households and companies, nor does it currently endanger public finances. Moreover, from an historical perspective (especially when compared to the significant decline in yields over recent decades), the recent rise is of a relatively moderate magnitude and very much similar to previous benign episodes of yield increases (such as in early 2015). The ECB should monitor the situation carefully but it should not be a major concern for the moment. Nevertheless, if in the future sovereign yields from euro-area member states drift away from levels compatible with economic fundamentals, or threaten the European recovery and the return of inflation towards 2 percent (which is not the case at the moment) the EuropeanCentral Bank’s expanded toolbox should be sufficient to influence the yield curve. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:20686&r=dcm |
| By: | Alexander, Dale; Corbin, Carlyle |
| Abstract: | As a preliminary phase of action in response to the ECLAC resolution which calls for greater inclusion of the associate members in the work of the Commission, this study sought to accomplish three outcomes. Firstly, the study explored the common development challenges of the non-sovereign associate members (AMs) of ECLAC which served as impediments to the economic and social development of the AMs, and identified priorities which fostered and advanced their development aspirations. Secondly, in light of the recent incremental changes in the political status that had occurred in many of those territories, affording them greater autonomy and freedom to independently engage with regional neighbours on issues of common interest, the study mapped strategic options that were available to enhance their level of integration with regional and international organizations active in the Caribbean subregion. Moreover, the study documented the development mechanisms that could be leveraged to facilitate the continued development of the AMs, and proposed opportunities for enhanced collaboration through South-South cooperation and other collaborative mechanisms with neighbouring member States. Finally, while acknowledging that the AMs shared common needs, including challenges related to climate change and natural hazard vulnerability, heavy reliance on fossil fuel, and limited institutional capacity, the study recognized that their individual circumstances were unique. In that regard, the recommended actions took that into account, exploring options for the design of a strategy of programme support to accelerate their economic and social progress. Importantly, the study identified opportunities to further integrate the AMs into ECLAC’s programmes of development support. |
| Keywords: | CEPAL, MIEMBROS, INTEGRACION ECONOMICA, COOPERACION ECONOMICA, DESARROLLO ECONOMICO, COOPERACION INTERNACIONAL, ECLAC, MEMBERS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col033:41586&r=dcm |
| By: | Pol Antràs; Alonso de Gortari |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a multi-stage general-equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. We show that, other things equal, it is optimal to locate relatively downstream stages of production in relatively central locations. We also develop and estimate a tractable, quantifiable version of our model that illustrates how changes in trade costs affect the extent to which various countries participate in domestic, regional or global value chains, and traces the real income consequences of these changes. |
| JEL: | C67 D21 D57 D58 F11 F14 F60 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23456&r=dcm |
| By: | Justyna Grzes-Buklaho (Bialystok University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Contemporary companies are faced with opportunities as well as dangers resulting from relationships with their environment. It is therefore important to define stakeholders and manage relations with them by implement-ing organizational principles and practices that take into account stakeholders' concerns and objectives, but are also consistent with a company's strategy and its economic goals (Banks, Vera, Pathak, Ballard, 2016, pp. 18-27). Purpose of the article: The aim of this article is a diagnosis of a sort of the theory of stakeholders present in the relevant literature. In addition, stakeholder identifi-cation was presented along with their role in the process of building a competitive advantage of a development company. Methodology/methods: An analysis of secondary sources was verified by empiri-cal studies. An analysis of the role of stakeholders in the functioning of an enter-prise was made using the so-called 'brainstorming method'. The study was con-ducted with the students of faculties at the Faculty of Management of the Bi-alystok Technical University in December 2012 and in the years 2014-2016. Findings & Value added: In the first part of the article, the key assumptions of the stakeholder theory and their impact on the competitiveness of entities are discussed, and the term "a development company" is defined. The second part presents conclusions from empirical research. These made it possible to formulate a list of main stakeholders who contribute to building a competitive advantage for developers. These entities are included in several groups: customers, suppliers, strategic partners, regulators and current and potential competitors. |
| Keywords: | development company, housing market, stakeholders, stakeholder theory, competitiveness |
| JEL: | L74 M20 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no152&r=dcm |
| By: | Isabelle Salle (Utrecht University, School of Economics); Pascal Seppecher (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes a range of alternative specifications of the interest rate policy rule within a macroeconomic, stock-flow consistent, agent-based model. In this model, firms’ leverage strategies evolve under the selection pressure of market competition. The resulting process of collective adaptation generates endogenous booms and busts along credit cycles. As feedback loops on aggregate demand affect the goods and the labor markets, the real and the financial sides of the economy are closely interconnected. The baseline scenario is able to qualitatively reproduce a wide range of stylized facts, and to match quantitative orders of magnitude of the main economic indicators. We find that, despite the implementation of credit and balance sheet related prudential policies, the emerging dynamics feature strong instability. Targeting movements in the net worth of firms help dampen the credit cycles, and simultaneously reduce financial and macroeconomic volatility, but does not eliminate the occurrence of financial crises along with high costs in terms of unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Agent-based modeling, Credit cycles, Monetary and Macroprudential policies, Leaning against the wind |
| JEL: | C63 E03 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-07&r=dcm |
| By: | Jacek Liwinski (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw Ul. Dluga 44/50, 00-241 Warszawa) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Over 200,000 of European students study abroad under the Erasmus mobility program in the course of their higher education. It seems that employers may treat students' participation in international exchange programs as a signalling tool, since according to them international students’ skills – both cognitive and non-cognitive – are well above the average. On the other hand, students participating in exchange programs underline a positive impact of studying abroad on their personal development, i.e. on their general skills. Thus, from a theoretical point of view we may expect a positive correlation between studying abroad and economic activity after graduation, which follows from both signalling theory and human capital theory. On the average, 54% of European students report that participation in Erasmus exchange program helped them to obtain the first job, but interestingly, those from the CEE countries, including Polish students, report it much more often. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to determine whether studying abroad has an impact on the employment rate of higher education graduates in Poland over the first few years after graduation. Methodology/methods: We used the propensity score matching (PSM) method and data from a representative, nationwide tracer survey of Poles who graduated from secondary schools or higher education institutions over the period of 1998-2005. Findings: The results of the analysis show that Polish students who completed at least one semester of their studies abroad do not benefit in terms of a higher employment rate after graduation. |
| Keywords: | studying abroad; human capital; graduates; employment rate; PSM method |
| JEL: | I23 I26 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no62&r=dcm |
| By: | Paul Mercier |
| Abstract: | The purchase of securities, and more specifically government bonds, belongs to the monetary policy implementation framework of many central banks, the Eurosystem being no exception for that matter. However, as for the euro zone, that tool remained unused until 2010, while present in the Eurosystem’s toolkit since its creation. Its implementation in times of crisis raised many debates, comments and even resorts to courts of justice. One of the central issues relates to the monetary financing of the public sector which in turn questions the relations between public debt, central banks and money. This paper does not aim at providing a definite answer to the many questions, or to offer an arbitrage between the different arguments and schools of thoughts. More simply, in view of the often confused state of discussions, it goes back to the basic concepts of money creation, more specifically to the one of money creation by central banks for the benefit of the public sector. Through a series of “typical cas es” of interactions between central banks, commercial banks, public sector and households, the paper favours a better understanding of the quite complex mechanic of money creation through the purchase of public bonds by central and commercial banks. It also addresses a connected topic, i.e. the article 123 of the treaty on the Functioning of the European Union that prohibits the direct purchase by central bank on the primary market of debt instruments issued by the public sector. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy implementation, central bank, money creation, monetary financing, public debt. |
| JEL: | E58 E59 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp108&r=dcm |
| By: | Park , Young Ho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Bang , Ho-Kyung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Cheong , Jae Wan (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Boyan (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Yejin (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Cities and urban areas function as engines for economic growth as they mobilize labor and capital to create economies of scale through the agglomeration of production factors and increase productivity. They also create a consumer base through whose consumption of manufactured products encourages economic growth. Consequently, cities generate economic value that amount up to 80 percent of the global GDP. They also expand as rural labor is pushed out as a result of green innovation and technological development. Interestingly, Africa's cities have expanded neither through industrialization nor technological innovation. Africa's urban population is relatively small compared to other regions of the world but its growth is expected to accelerate in the near future. However, this rate of expansion and attention is unaccompanied by an improvement in physical and institutional infrastructure. As a result, Africa's urban areas are sprawled by the expansion of slums while social infrastructure such as road, power, water and sanitation, and industrial production facilities is far from sufficient. As Africa's urbanization comes with many side effects triggered by the infrastructure deficit, the development of economic and social infrastructure could aid its economic transformation. Using the various methods of pooled OLS, fixed effects model and system GMM, estimations on the future demand for infrastructure in the road, water and sanitation, and power sectors were conducted. Results indicate that demand is highest in the power sector followed by road and then by water and sanitation. Based on Korea's experience and expertise and in consideration of the calculated estimations, Korea can cooperate with Africa by developing policies for urban planning (soft infrastructure), building physical infrastructure (hard infrastructure), and providing assistance in the establishment of industrial complexes. Detailed examples include reforming land regulation systems, establishing the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) and utilizing co-financing capital for infrastructure development. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Urbanization; Infrastructure |
| Date: | 2017–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2017_011&r=dcm |
| By: | Claudia Hupkau; Sandra McNally; Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela; Guglielmo Ventura |
| Abstract: | Most students do not follow the ‘academic track’ (i.e. A-levels) after leaving school and only about a third of students go to university before the age of 20. Yet progression routes for the majority that do not take this path but opt for vocational post-compulsory education are not as well-known, which partly has to do with the complexity of the vocational education system and the difficulty of deciphering available data. If we are to tackle long-standing problems of low social mobility and a long tail of underachievers, it is essential that post-16 vocational options come under proper scrutiny. This paper is a step in that direction. We use linked administrative data to track decisions made by all students in England who left compulsory education after having undertaken the national examination – the General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) – at age 16 in the year 2009/10. We track them up to the age of 21, as they progress through the education system and (for some) into the labour market. We categorise the many different types of post-16 qualifications into several broad categories and we look at the probability of achieving various educational and early labour market outcomes, conditional on the path chosen at age 17. We also take into account the influence of demographics, prior attainment and the secondary school attended. Our findings illustrate the strong inequality apparently generated by routes chosen at age 17, even whilst controlling for prior attainment and schooling up to that point |
| Keywords: | post-16 education; progression routes |
| JEL: | I20 I21 |
| Date: | 2017–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:78198&r=dcm |
| By: | Jan Polcyn (Stanislaw Staszic University of Applied Sciences in Pila, Poland) |
| Abstract: | There may be a significant correlation between the number of pupils in a school and their learning performance. Some studies point to the negative impact of schools with a large number of pupils on the educational results achieved. At the same time, the demographic crisis that has been deepening steadily for several years now represents an important motivation forrationalising the existing network of schools. The aim of the study was to determine the optimum size of schools based on the criterion of examination results expressed through educational value added. The analysis covered all comprehensive secondary schools in Poland over the2013 to 2015 period (a total of 1,943 schools). It determined the correlation between the size of a school expressed through the average number of graduates, and the results of thematura examination (the secondary schoolleaving exam in Poland) expressed through educational value added. Data for the analysis was obtained from the Section of Educational Value Added of the Educational Research Institute in Warsaw. The comprehensive secondary schools under study were divided into 5 classes, according to the criterion of the average annual number of graduates. The following analytical classes were distinguished: class A - up to 50 graduates, class B - 51-100 graduates, class C - 101-150 graduates, class D - 151 -200 graduates, class E - above 201 graduates. The analyses conducted in this study showed that the comprehensive secondary schools with over 600 pupils had the highest learning outcomes as expressed through educational value added. The lowest educational effectiveness was found in schools with less than 150 pupils. A dependency was discovered whereby the effectiveness of education increases as the number of pupils grows. Due to the lack of data concerning examination results in schools with more than 1,000 pupils (value indicated in American studies as the threshold value for positive learning outcomes), it was not possible to determine the maximum number of pupils that guarantees satisfactory learning outcomes. |
| Keywords: | number of pupils in a school, educational value added (EVA); comprehensive secondary school, socio-cultural capital |
| JEL: | A20 A21 A29 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no93&r=dcm |
| By: | Mangirdas Morkunas (Mykolas Romeris University, Lithuania); Viktorija Skvarciany (Vinius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania); Jelena Titko (University of Economics and Culture, Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | The concept of autopoiesis was initially developed in the field of biology and it was used to explain the behavior of biological systems. However it has been successfully applied in other fields of science, including economics and management. Although researches on economic entities using autopoietic systems’ theory are performed in Western Europe and USA, this scientific approach still is not developed in Baltic countries. This paper addresses to this vacuum of scientific researches on autopoiesis of economic structures in small open markets. The paper aims to identify and evaluate factors that turn on self-organization mechanisms of autopoietic economic structures in Baltic States, in particular in Latvia. Expert survey was used to identify the most important factors affecting the formation of meso-economic entities in the Baltic States. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with fuzzy numbers was employed to process the data. Two different scales of evaluation (inverse linear and balanced) were used. The factors influencing the process of formation of business groups were evaluated by experts. Research results allow making conclusions regarding the causes of the business integration, and impact of diversified integrated business structures on the country's business system in Central Europe. |
| Keywords: | autopoiesis, formation of a firm, Baltic States |
| JEL: | D21 L22 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no131&r=dcm |
| By: | Antràs, Pol; de Gortari, Alonso |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a multi-stage general-equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. We show that, other things equal, it is optimal to locate relatively downstream stages of production in relatively central locations. We also develop and estimate a tractable, quantifiable version of our model that illustrates how changes in trade costs affect the extent to which various countries participate in domestic, regional or global value chains, and traces the real income consequences of these changes. |
| Keywords: | Gains from trade; global value chains; sequential production; specialization; Trade Costs |
| JEL: | C67 D21 D22 D58 F11 F14 F60 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12063&r=dcm |
| By: | Rehman, Salma; Hussain, Zaki |
| Abstract: | India has set colossal renewable energy (RE) targets (achieving 175GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022) which need a clear strategy roadmap, integrated planning and a whole-of-system approach. However, the loopholes in institutional mechanisms are bound to hinder the process of policy formulation and implementation for the aspired quantum leap. This paper is an attempt to observe governance of renewable energy in India while exploring the issues and challenges that have been stalling the process of clean energy uptake. The paper finds that despite the comprehensive policy and regulatory frameworks, the large disconnect between the central policies and regional needs has created barriers for deployment of renewable technologies. The paper emphasizes the provision for clean energy financial support to be made available to the states for addressing the disparities between RE potential and the development cost, and planning for better grid management systems. The RE targets also demand an intensive capital market development and innovative financial support mechanisms and products. While aligning itself with the clean energy goals, India needs to focus significantly on the energy needs of the rural population which has been grappling with electricity cuts and brownouts. For regions with limited or no electricity supply, the government should aggressively promote the ideas of off-grid solar power and micro grids. The paper also recommends the possibilities for private sector investments, rural entrepreneurship and public- private ventures for filling in the gaps, and thus harnessing the potential of RE-rich states. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), India, Clean Energy, Grid integration, Solar Mission, NAPCC, Climate change, Rural electrification |
| JEL: | Q2 Q20 Q28 Q5 Q50 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79361&r=dcm |
| By: | Magdalena Szyszko (WSB University in Poznan, Poland); Aleksandra Rutkowska (Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Modern monetary policy should be expectations-oriented. The best way to influence expectations operationally is to use inflation forecasts. As different ways of revealing central bank’s intentions exist, a simple research question arises. Does the forward-looking (FL) component of consumers' expectations depend on the way in which the forecast is revealed and used by the central bank? The main purpose of the article is to address the mentioned above question. The research hypothesis assumes that the forecasting system which is more transparent together with a greater central banks’ consistency in inflation forecast targeting (IFT) result in more FL consumers' expectations. We quantified inflation expectations of consumers on the basis of survey responses (EC Business and Consumer Surveys) with Carlson and Parkin method. When it was needed we applied its version adjusted for deflation. Then, we checked the rationality of consumer expectations (tests for their unbiasedness and orthogonality) and the degree of their FL by means of regression models. Finally, we used the IFT index, which we have elaborated ourselves in order to assess the transparency of the forecasting system and the central banks’ commitment to IFT. The research covers Czechia, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Sweden and the UK and the time span of 2001-2016. For Poland, Sweden and the UK more IFT commitment and transparency was related to more consumers’ forward-lookingness. For Czechia we found low level of FL in expectations but high level of IFT commitment. We did not succeed in estimating the extent of FL for the two remaining countries due to structural breaks in their monetary policy. The following study contributes to the literature on inflation forecast targeting as it presents the novel empirical application of IFT index for the expectations analysis. |
| Keywords: | inflation forecast, inflation forecast targeting, consumers expectations, forward-lookingness of expectations. |
| JEL: | E58 E43 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no128&r=dcm |
| By: | Alicja Sekula (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk) |
| Abstract: | Research background: General grants should pursue five different functions. One of them is revenue equalization. This function is achieved if the revenue gap is reduced after the application of the subsidising mechanism. The size of the support should be inversely proportional to own revenues. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to analyse the fulfilment of the revenue equalization function by general subsidies. Beside the theoretical analysis, which presents the general grants structure and the functions assigned to them, the article discusses the results of studies showing changes in the revenue gap after the application of the grant mechanism and the correlation between per capita own revenue and the amount of funds from selected parts of the general grant. The following tentative research hypothesis was adopted: general grants fail to fulfil the revenue equalisation function. Methodology/methods: Two research methods were applied: descriptive statistics and correlation – calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient. Findings & Value added: It was concluded that, once the corrective and equalising mechanism was applied, the range between the extreme per capita revenue values was reduced by 40–50% on average, at all local government levels, i.e. at commune, county and province levels, in each year from the period analysed, i.e. 2012–2015. The correlation between the sizes of revenue before and after budget subsidising is always negative, whereas the strength of the relationship ranged between low and significant, depending on the local government level. It was found that general grants do fulfil the revenue equalisation function, which contradicts the initially formulated research hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | general grants, revenue equalization, own revenues, revenue equalisation function, Poland |
| JEL: | H71 H22 H11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no108&r=dcm |
| By: | Timothy Layton; Ellen J. Montz; Mark Shepard |
| Abstract: | The Affordable Care Act Marketplaces were introduced in 2014 as part of a reform of the U.S. individual health insurance market. While the individual market represents a small slice of the U.S. population, it has historically been the market segment with the lowest rates of take-up and greatest concerns about access to robust coverage. As part of the reform of the individual insurance market, the Marketplaces invoke many of the principles of regulated competition including (partial) community rating of premiums, mandated benefits, and risk adjustment transfers. While the Marketplaces initially appeared to be successful at increasing coverage and limiting premium growth, more recent outcomes have been less favorable and the stability of the Marketplaces is currently in question. In this paper, we lay out in detail how the Marketplaces adopt the tools of regulated competition. We then discuss ways in which the Marketplace model deviates from the more conventional model and how those deviations may impact the eventual success or failure of these new markets. |
| JEL: | I11 I13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23444&r=dcm |
| By: | Lucia S. Foster; Cheryl A. Grim; John Haltiwanger; Zoltan Wolf |
| Abstract: | Researchers have been using a variety of methods to estimate productivity at the firm level. Absent data on prices and quantities, these methods yield what have become known as revenue productivity measures. How these measures are related to physical productivity depends on the assumptions about the environment in which establishments operate. It is perhaps less recognized that the differences across estimation methods have important consequences for interpretation. One such difference concerns revenue function estimates: while cost-share-based coefficients are, in principle, equivalent to factor elasticities, regression-based estimates equal factor elasticities only under strict assumptions about product markets. This implies that revenue residuals are conceptually different under these two broad approaches. Using plant-level manufacturing data for the U.S., we look at the empirical relevance of such distinctions in the context of key stylized facts of the productivity literature. First, we find non-trivial differences in estimated elasticities and returns to scale. The variation in elasticities affects numerical results on dispersion, yet all methods imply large productivity differences across establishments. More productive plants are shown to be more likely to grow and survive by all reviewed methods, although differences remain in the quantitative marginal effects of productivity. Reallocation is found to be comparable and productivity enhancing by all methods considered, but within-plant growth seems to be more sensitive. We find evidence that imputation and imposing homogeneous elasticities negatively affect within-industry dispersion. In addition, imputation results in some attenuation in growth and exit coe cients but does not invalidate qualitative conclusions. |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:17-41&r=dcm |
| By: | Francisco Costa-Cabral; Orla Lynskey |
| Abstract: | Personal data has become the object of trade in the digital economy, and companies compete to acquire and process this data. This rivalry is subject to the application of competition law. However, personal data also has a dignitary dimension which is protected through data protection law and the EU Charter rights to data protection and privacy. This paper maps the relationship between these legal frameworks. It identifies the commonalities that facilitate their intersection, whilst acknowledging their distinct methods and aims. It argues that when the material scope of these legal frameworks overlap, competition law can incorporate data protection law as a normative yardstick when assessing non-price competition. Data protection can thus act as an internal constraint on competition law. In addition, it advocates that following the legal and institutional changes brought about by the Lisbon Treaty, data protection and other fundamental rights also exercise an external constraint on competition law and, in certain circumstances, can prevent or shape its application. As national and supranational regulators grapple with the challenge of developing a dynamic information economy that respects fundamental rights, recognition of these constraints would pave the way for a more coherent EU law approach to a digital society. |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68470&r=dcm |
| By: | Michal Igielski (Gdynia Maritime University, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The modern economy is characterized by use changes. They appear very quickly and unexpectedly. This is a situation which impedes the functioning of companies and it is a challenge for the people managing them. They have to meet new challenges and adapt to changing competitive conditions, which are associated with the processes of globalization and knowledge-based economy. Therefore, the aim of this article is to define the role of intellectual capital in companies with TSL branch in building competitive advantage. In addition, the author attempts to assess the facts of intellectual capital management in the surveyed enterprises and it will identify the barriers that accompany this process. Founded research objectives will be realized an analysis of available sources of theoretical and conducted by the author, in 2016 (100 companies with TSL from Baltic Sea Region). The study was prepared as a general survey, which describes the company and individual interviews conducted with representatives of the boards of companies and their managers (for a total of 400 people). After analyzing all the material you see the role of intellectual capital in building a competitive advantage in the surveyed entities. Especially in activities related to the improvement of the quality of services / products and the efficiency of employees. It also turned out that business owners know how important it is for them the capital and they also know the barrier implementation of this concept - the main are: the capital is not their property. |
| Keywords: | intellectual capital, logistics, shipping and transport industry (TSL), competitive advantage |
| JEL: | D41 D83 L10 M12 O15 O34 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no38&r=dcm |
| By: | Takuji Kawamoto (Bank of Japan); Tatsuya Ozaki (Bank of Japan); Naoya Kato (Bank of Japan); Kohei Maehashi (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper explains the new methodology for calculating Japan's output gap and potential growth rate, both of which are regularly estimated and released by the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan. We have revised the estimation method given: (1) the retroactive revision of Japan's GDP statistics; (2) the newly available capital stock data which is in line with the new 2008SNA guidelines and adjusted for economic depreciation; and (3) recent structural changes in the factor markets for labor and capital that should be reflected in these estimated trends. Specifically, we have changed our estimation methodology in the following three ways: first, we have revised the estimation method of the "labor force participation rate gap," so as to reflect the recent sustained increase in the labor force participation rate starting around 2012 as a structural trend; second, we have revised the estimation method of the "hours worked gap," to identify the persistent decline in working hours over recent years as more of a structural development possibly due to changes in people's working styles; and third, we have revised the method for calculating the manufacturing "utilization gap," in order to reflect the economic depreciation of equipment and structures more appropriately. Taking a look at the revised output gap, we find that the overall picture for most of the recent period remains unchanged. Furthermore, it turns out that the inflation-prediction power of the revised output gap is almost unchanged from the previous version. Meanwhile, the resulting potential growth rate shows a significant upward revision for the last few years, mainly reflecting a rise in the TFP growth rate associated with the revision of the GDP statistics. As a result, the potential growth rate in recent years is estimated to be in the range of 0.5-1.0 percent, which is comparable to that of the first half of the 2000s, prior to the global financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | output gap; potential growth rate; GDP; phillips curve |
| JEL: | E23 E24 E31 E32 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojron:ron170531a&r=dcm |
| By: | Bettendorf, Timo; Bursian, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Single equation models are well established among academics and practitioners to perform temporal disaggregation of low frequency time series using available related series. In this paper, we propose an extension that exploits information from the cross-sectional dimension. More specifically, we suggest jointly estimating multiple Chow and Lin (1971) equations, one for each cross-sectional unit (e.g. country), restricting the coefficients to be the same across units in order to interpolate unitspecific data. Using actual data on real GDP and industrial production for euro area countries we provide evidence that this approach can result in more accurate interpolated time series for individual countries. The results suggest that the inclusion of time fixed effects, which is not feasible in standard single equation models, can be helpful in increasing accuracy of the resulting series. |
| Keywords: | temporal disaggregation,interpolation,panel data |
| JEL: | C23 C53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:122017&r=dcm |
| By: | Salvatore Perdichizzi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | During the sovereign debt crisis, all euro countries have deployed \aus- terity packages", believing that they could regain the path of growth im- plementing structural reforms and cutting government spending. Such policies should have led to an initial decline in GDP followed by recov- ery and a reduction of the debt to gdp ratio. A key issue is the size of scal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We estimate a non- linear model allowing variations based on the state of the economy and we control for the macroeconomic characteristics across the Euro Area. The empirical evidence suggests that, an increase in government spending will be particularly e ective to boost aggregate demand, increase private consumption and investment in the short-to-medium run, without raising the debt to gdp ratio but rather decreasing it. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Multipliers, State-Dependent, Fiscal Policy, Public Finance. |
| JEL: | E32 E62 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def058&r=dcm |
| By: | Pawe³ Gajewski (Department of Macroeconomics, Institute of Economics, University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates patterns of regional inflation persistence in Poland, a representative CEE country. We first argue that the CEE perspective is relevant in the context of this study due to the recent transitions, incomplete processes of forming forward-looking inflation expectations and pronounced spatial inequalities. Using individual and panel regressions on disaggregate data we provide evidence of the aggregation bias and marked differences in inflation persistence across product categories. Furthermore, we show that cross-regional differences in inflation persistence remain, even after controlling for the product category. While we generally confirm the earlier finding of Vaona and Ascari (2012) that more backward regions exhibit higher CPI inflation persistence, we also show that the picture is more nuanced at the product category level. |
| Keywords: | Regional economic dynamics, CEE, inflation persistence |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:5/2017&r=dcm |
| By: | Marcin Sitek (Czestochowa University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Research background: In this paper a short overview of the types of innovations and their innovative forms of investing in the real estate market, such as reverse mortgage, flipping, building for rent, system condo and crowdfunding was presented. Purpose of the article: The aim of the paper is to present risk factors in innovative activities in the real estate market and evaluation of their activity in this market. The study proposed the hypothesis that a specific level of development in the real estate market corresponds to a certain level of investment risk reflected by the rate of return. Methodology/methods: The questionnaire survey in the local real estate market participants (investors, employees in enterprises that provide services for the real estate market, external appraisers, real estate brokers and counsellors) was conducted for the purposes of evaluation of risk factors in the investment innovative activities. Findings: Analysis of the results of questionnaire survey supported the following thesis: (1) as an effect of a strong inflow of capital and disturbed balance between demand and supply, return rates represent the reaction to the previous market behaviours, (2)decline in the rates of return points to the increase in the investment risk in the real estate market. It was found that the particularly high contribution to the risk level is from market risk, which is little transparent in Poland and is characterized by high variability of the conditions of operation. |
| Keywords: | risk; investment risk; innovations; risk management |
| JEL: | E32 E44 F63 O12 O31 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no159&r=dcm |
| By: | Michal Bitner (Warsaw University, Warsaw); Jacek Sierak (Warsaw University, Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Development policy in Poland is based on various strategic documents, and it utilizes both the national resources and the European funds. Managing development at the local level is an important element of this policy. Many facets of this management are of incessant interest to the theory and practice of public finance. One of undisputed findings is the relationship between development and increase in competitiveness. However there are no studies showing the relationship between the shape of local government expenditure policy and increase of competitiveness at the local level. Purpose of the article: The paper is focused on demonstrating the importance of specific groups of public expenditure implemented by local government units for development processes at the local level. The authors try to answer the question whether the implementation of certain local budget expenditure positively impacts the level of local government tax revenue, which determine the ability to provide public services, while creating a boost to the growth of competitiveness. Methodology/methods: On the basis of international consensus on the impact of individual factors on the competitiveness measured at the regional level, the authors propose the concept of public developmental expenditure and they adjust it to current standards of budget reporting. In turn, the indicator of tax revenue per capita was chosen to measure the achievement of the objectives of development policy at the local level. The study covers all major cities in Poland (poviat-cities). The authors calculate the volume of the developmental expenditure over the reference period in each city covered by the study as well as the average dynamics of tax revenue per capita. Regression analysis constitutes the essential part of the study. Findings: The observations that had been made, allowed to draw some conclusions regarding both the usefulness of proposed classification of developmental expenditure for the processes of planning, monitoring and evaluation of development strategies and the importance of developmental expenditure for the growth of competitiveness. The proper allocation of budgetary resources in developmental projects should lead in the long run to the growth of local economy and thus also to increase in local budget revenue. |
| Keywords: | development policy; local government budgets; developmental expenditure; competitiveness; tax revenue |
| JEL: | H72 H76 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no111&r=dcm |
| By: | ONO Arito; SUZUKI Katsushi; UESUGI Iichiro |
| Abstract: | Utilizing the regulatory change relating to banks' shareholding in Japan as an instrument, this study examines the causal effects of declining shareholding by banks on bank lending and firms' risk taking. Banks may hold equity claims over client firms for either of the following two reasons: (i) gaining a competitive advantage by exploiting complementarity between shareholding and lending activities, and (ii) mitigating shareholder-creditor conflict. Exogenous reduction in a bank's shareholding would then impair the competitiveness of the bank's lending activities and aggravate the risk-shifting behavior of client firms. Using a firm-bank matched dataset of Japan's listed firms during the period 2001-2006, we empirically tested several hypotheses and obtain the following findings. First, a bank's removal from the list of major shareholders of a client firm (extensive margin) and the reduction in the ratio of the bank's shareholding to the firm's total shares on issue (intensive margin) decreases the bank's share of the firm's loans. Second, a reduction in the extensive margin of a bank's shareholding increases the volatility of the client firm's return on assets and reduces its Sharpe ratio. However, we do not find the same effect when a bank reduces the intensive margin of its shareholding. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17079&r=dcm |
| By: | Michal Elzbieta Jantoñ-Drozdowska (University in Poznañ, Poland); Alicja Mikolajewicz-Wozniak (University in Poznañ, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The year 2016 ended the period of migration from national payment services to the SEPA instruments and it has become apparent that some problems remained unresolved. Overcoming them requires finding suitable technological solutions. The potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) is currently explored by financial sector and its implementation may affect the SEPA schemes in a variety of dimensions. The aim of the article is to determine the potential impact of the DLT transfer to banking sector on the future SEPA’s functioning. The paper presents SEPA’s assumptions and the project’s current status as well as DLT’s concept. It describes the technology transfer implications for banking industry and compares currently operating SEPA schemes with those based on DLT. It also indicates opportunities and threats being the consequence of the new technology implementation and their significance for SEPA.In the article the qualitative analysis is supplemented by the quantitative one. While characterizing the functioning of the main pillars of the SEPA Schemes the elements of descriptive statistics are used. The final conclusions are based on the comparative analysis of SEPA schemes and developed DLT applications. The existing problems might be solved by supplementing currently operating SEPA payment schemes with the applications based on DLT. The developed systems shall provide required real-time processing and a global reach as well as extend the SEPA schemes’ functionalities with the ability to transfer other currencies. The technology implementation shall result not only in new financial products but first of all – in creating new business models. Consequently, we shall expect the modification of currently operating SEPA schemes, based rather on their supplement than total replacement in a short time horizon. |
| Keywords: | SEPA; blockchain; distributed ledger technology; virtual currencies; financial integration |
| JEL: | F36 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no80&r=dcm |
| By: | Adam P. Balcerzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University); Michal Bernard Pietrzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University) |
| Abstract: | Investing in digital infrastructure and building effective digital economy is currently considered as a basic condition for keeping international competitiveness of developed economies. In the case of developing countries in some economic models it is considered as a factor that can help to avoid middle income trap. From the regional perspective developing digital economy can support the process of convergence and closing development gap between the regions. As a result, a comparative research concerning the development level of digital economy is an important scientific task. In this context, the aim of the article is to assess and compare the development level of digital economy in Polish regions (NUTS 1). The digital economy is commonly considered as a multiple-criteria phenomenon. Thus, an approach based on TOPSIS method with application of generalized distance measure GDM was used in the analysis. Six diagnostic variables concerning digital infrastructure and level of its utilization were used. The research was conducted for the years 2012-2015 with application of Eurostat Data. The conducted analysis confirmed relatively quick progress in the field of building digital economy obtained by Polish regions. |
| Keywords: | digital economy; multiple-criteria analysis; TOPSIS; generalized distance measure GDM |
| JEL: | P25 C38 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no3&r=dcm |
| By: | Magdalena Cyrek (University of Rzeszow) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Regions that are able to use their resources in the most efficient way could be perceived as valuable benchmarks when shaping socio-economic policy. The efficiency, however, can be related not only to pure economic categories but to social goals as well. These two dimensions: economic and social overlap and often have some common stems, among which sectoral structure of employment seems to be an important one. Purpose of the article: The aim of the study was to compare thesocial efficiency of employment in three sectors in Polish voivodeships. Not only were we evaluating therelative performance of each region but we were also paying attention to theefficiency of engagement of human resources in agricultural, industrial and service sectors. Methodology/methods:We adopted DEA method to assess thesocial efficiency of Polish regions. We evaluated social cohesion concerning its two output dimensions: positive, that could be described by social activity and negative, that could be reflected in a form of social exclusion stemming from material sources. We took into account a level of employment in agricultural, industrial and service sectors as inputs in the model and thus focused our attention on thethreesectoral structure of regional economies. Our model assumed non-radial developmental paths and was input oriented (NR-CCR). Data were describing the 16 Polish voivodeships in the2015 year and were extracted from the Central Statistical Office of Poland’s databases. Findings& Value added:The conducted research indicate that Polish regions which were the most efficient in terms of social integration were simultaneously those with the best economic results in terms of GDP per capita. The highest social efficiency was characteristic for employment in theservice sector, while the lowest – for agriculture. Thus, structural development appears to be favourable for regional economies also in terms of social cohesion, which is often neglected in the literature. |
| Keywords: | social efficiency; employment; three sectors; regions |
| JEL: | D61 E24 I31 J21 O11 O15 R11 R15 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no21&r=dcm |
| By: | Piotr Kulyk (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski); Mariola Michalowska (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski); Paulina Paluszkiewicz (Uniwersytet Zielonogorski) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Organic farming is a practical response to the ecological consequences of non-organic management of natural resources. Interest in the organic food market is growing both among producers and consumers. What has influenced this is, on the one hand, the demand for organic products, and on the other, the support for organic farming from the national budget and the budget of the European Union. Purpose of the article: In the article we have shown an attempt to identify the key factors influencing the development of the organic food market as well as the state of organic farming in Poland compared to individual European Union countries. Particular attention has been paid to the mechanisms of support for organic farming that enables farmers to keep a farming system based on ecological production methods not disturbing natural environmantal balance and allowing to undertake activities that are particularly beneficial for environmental protection ensuring the continuance and development of present and future generations. Seeking justification for the promotion of organic agricultural producers a reference has been made to the market failure, with particular emphasis on the problems of socio-economic development. Methodology/methods: The conditions for the development of the organic food market are shown in the context of the analysis of the literature on the problems of organic farming, the available empirical research, as well as the results of own survey conducted among respondents in Lubuskie Voivodeship and data from the Central Statistical Office, Eurostat and IJHARS. Findings: Polish organic food market is growing rapidly. However its significance in Poland is not great in the total agricultural production. The level and structure of consumption of organic food market is determined by the income of consumers, as well as their increasing environmental awareness. An important element influencing the development of organic farming is a system of support for organic farming. |
| Keywords: | organic farming, demand factors, supply factors |
| JEL: | Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no54&r=dcm |
| By: | Elzbieta Roszko-Wojtowicz (University of Lodz); Jacek Bialek (University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | As it is known, innovativeness can be measured by using many known indices, such as the Global Innovation Index, the Summary Innovation Index, etc. and often these indices are based on different methodologies and take into consideration different sets of diagnostic variables. As a consequence, the final evaluation of innovativeness may strongly depend on the innovation index used. Obviously, some groups of indices lead to similar ranks of the EU countries. Nevertheless, if there are at least two groups of indices which provide different ranks of these countries, a problem with the proper evaluation of their real innovativeness arises. One of the solutions is to select the most valuable indices by observing the impact of all indices on forming distances between innovativeness levels of the EU countries. Following this option, the main aim of this paper is classification of the EU countries with respect to their innovativeness and the evaluation of international index influences on the classification obtained. The aim of the paper is to conduct the research on differences in innovation intensity across the EU member countries. For the purpose of the article, the PROFIT (PROperty FITting) method, an extension of multidimensional scaling (MDS), was applied. The ultimate goal of MDS techniques is to produce a geometric map that illustrates the underlying structure of complex phenomena, for instance, innovativeness of the EU countries. It is a widely used method which collects attribute ratings for each object (country) and then finds the best correspondence of each attribute to the derived perceptual space. Applying the PROFIT method needs linear regression techniques and provides some additional information, i.e. the impact of the considered set of diagnostic variables on the shape of the perception map. The final result is a two-dimensional map of the EU countries which reflects distances among their innovativeness levels along with vectors presenting the influence of international indices of innovativeness on the structure of this map. The nature of the results and the ways in which they are interpreted are subsequently reviewed. The main conclusion drawn from the perception map created concerns the interpretation of the above-mentioned vectors, i.e. the information about the role of each international innovation index in clustering the EU countries with respect to their innovation intensity is obtained. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional scaling (MDS), property fitting method (PROFIT), innovation intensity, EU member countries, synthetic measures of innovativeness |
| JEL: | A11 A14 B16 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no103&r=dcm |
| By: | Eraslan, Sercan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the asymmetries in arbitrage trading with onshore and offshore renminbi spot rates, focusing on the time-varying driving factors behind the deviations of the two rates from their long-run equilibrium. Fundamentally, offshore and onshore renminbi rates represent the same economic quantity and hence should be driven by the same pricing mechanism. However, the two exchange rates deviate remarkably from each other, creating arbitrage opportunities over many days. For the empirical analysis, I build a three-regime threshold vector error correction model with offshore and onshore spot rates and further regime-dependent explanatory variables. The model is estimated in different periods in order to consider the impact of appreciation and depreciation expectations on possible arbitrage trading. The estimation results suggest that directional expectations, global risk sentiment, and local as well as global liquidity conditions dominate the adjustment process in the absence of arbitrage trading when the offshore rate is stronger than its onshore counterpart. However, the error correction mechanism of the offshore (onshore) rate toward its equilibrium with the onshore (offshore) rate is driven by the arbitrage trading due to a relatively weaker (stronger) offshore (onshore) rate in the upper regime in times of appreciation (depreciation) expectations. |
| Keywords: | threshold cointegration,vector error correction model,arbitrage trading,renminbi exchange rates,onshore and offshore markets |
| JEL: | C32 F31 G15 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:132017&r=dcm |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; University of Sydney Business School, Australia; Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands; Complutense University of Madrid, Spain and Yokohama National Univ) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents an overview of recent topical research on global, energy, health & medical, and tourism economics, and global software. We have interpreted “global” in the title of the Journal of Reviews on Global Economics to cover contributions that have a global impact on economics, thereby making it “global economics”. In this sense, the paper is concerned with papers on global, energy, health & medical, and tourism economics, as well as global software algorithms that have global economic impacts. The topics covered include re-opening the Silk Road to transform Chinese trade, education and skill mismatches, education policy for migrant children, code of practice and indicators for quality management of official statistics, projections of energy use and carbon emissions, multi-fuel allocation for power generation using genetic algorithms, optimal active energy loss with feeder routing and renewable energy for smart grid distribution, demand for narcotics with policy implications, access to maternal and child health services of migrant workers, computer technology to improve medical information, heritage tourism, ecotourism impacts on the economy, society and environment, taxi drivers’ cross-cultural communication problems and challenges, hybrid knowledge discovery system based on items and tags, game development platform to improve advanced programming skills, quadratic approximation of the newsvendor problem with imperfect quality, classification of workflow management systems for emails, academic search engine for personalized rankings, creative and learning processes using game-based activities, personal software process with automatic requirements traceability to support start-ups, and comparing statistical and data mining techniques for enrichment ontology with instances. |
| Keywords: | Global economics; energy economics; health & medical economics; tourism economics; global software |
| JEL: | I15 L86 O13 Q47 Z32 |
| Date: | 2017–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170046&r=dcm |
| By: | Hanna Hall (Rzeszow University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Marketisation of higher education accompanying the development of a market economy having expressed, among others, the "imitation" of management models specific to the enterprise sector, an adaptation of the market terminology, changing roles of students and the importance of their satisfaction with the study causes still a lot of controversy in the academic community, dividing it into supporters and opponents of the current process with a strong predominance of the first group. The aim of this article is to present the arguments and opinions of supporters and opponents of the process of marketization of higher education with a particular emphasis on changes in students roles at nowadays universities. In the article the results of desk research as well as the author's own research will be used. Research carried out by the author were of a qualitative nature and were conducted with an application of In depth Interview method because of the need for full and cogent opinions of the respondents. The research was carried out among 16 representatives of Polish universities, i.e. among Deputy Chancellors (for marketing and development of the university) or departments managers responsible for marketing of the university. For the study there were selected two (public and private) colleges of 8 Polish cities that are capitals of provinces or districts. As measuring instruments, the study used an interview scenario with an average degree of standardization and a voice recorder. Interviews were carried out at the premises of the universities, in the period from 2015 - 2016. They lasted between 1-2,5 hours, depending on the degree of involvement of the university in marketing activities. Supporters of marketisation argue that this process will turn universities into more flexible, more efficient and more responsive to the needs of society, the economy, students and parents institutions. Opponents pay attention to the cultural, intellectual and pedagogic consequences of this process. Both groups conclude that there is no turning back from this process and it cannot be avoided. |
| Keywords: | marketisation of higher education; higher education marketing; changes in higher education marketing |
| JEL: | I23 M39 I29 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no36&r=dcm |
| By: | Michal Bernard Pietrzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University); Adam P. Balcerzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University) |
| Abstract: | Implementing policy and forming socioeconomic conditions that support sustainable and equable growth of regions is currently an important objective both at European and national level. Regional development policy is supported by significant resources from European Union funds. As a result, a constant monitoring of the development process at regional level with application of quantitative methods is an important scientific and practical task. Thus, the aim of the article is to assess the level of economic development in Poland at the voivodeships level (NUTS 2). Economic development is considered here as a multiple-criteria phenomenon. In the case of multiple-criteria analysis a common dilemma is attributed to the problem of applying appropriate weights for variables used in the research. Therefore, in order to provide a rating of voivodeships a taxonomic measure of development with entropy weights was applied here. The research was conducted for the years 2010-2014. It was based on the data provided by Central Statistical Office of Poland. The results of the analysis confirm that in spite of a progress obtained by all voivodeships significant disparities between them are still present. |
| Keywords: | entropy weighs; multiple-criteria decision analysis; taxonomic measure of development; regional development |
| JEL: | O18 P25 C38 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no2&r=dcm |
| By: | Michal Lukas Melecky (VSB-Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | European Union provides financial support to the Member States through various financial tools currently from European Structural and Investment Funds that represent the main instrument of EU Cohesion Policy to sustain territorial development, to increase competitiveness and to eliminate regional disparities. The overall impact of EU Funds depends on the structure of funding and absorption capacity of the country. Efficiency of funding across EU Member States is a fundamental issue for the EU development as a whole. The author considers determining the efficiency of EU Funds as an issue of high importance and therefore this study provides a contribution to the debate on the role of the EU Cohesion Policy in EU Member States. The paper focuses on the territorial effects of selected EU Funds in programming period 2007–2013 in theme of infrastructure through transport efficiency analysis. Efficiency analysis is based on data at country level originating from ex-post evaluation of Cohesion Policy programmes 2007–2013 representing the input and output variables to analyse whether the goal of fostering growth in the target countries have been achieved with the funds provided and whether or not more resources generated stronger growth effects in transport accessibility. Study deals with comparative cross-country analysis, descriptive data analysis and multicriteria approach to Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in the form of output oriented BCC VRS model. The study aims at testing several factors in form of two inputs and five outputs, trying to elucidate the differences obtained by the EU Member States in efficient using of the European Regional Development Fund and the Cohesion Fund in transport sector. Paper determines if the countries have been more efficient in increasing their levels of competitive advantages linked with transport. Preliminary results reveals that mostly countries with lower amount of funding achieve higher efficiency, especially from the group of EU15. |
| Keywords: | DEA; Efficiency; European Regional Development Fund, Ex-post evaluation; Cohesion Fund. |
| JEL: | C67 O11 O52 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no77&r=dcm |
| By: | Wieslaw Matwiejczuk (Bialystok University of Technology); Mariusz Gorustowicz (Bialystok University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Awareness and ability to possibly eliminate the potentially adverse consequences of economic fluctuations can constitute an extremely important factor of the financial condition and competitive position of the company as well as the entire construction sector. Especially in the construction sector creating a catalog of fac-tors affecting economic fluctuations is important from the point of view of not only the economy but also the company. The analysis carried out in this article of situation fluctuations in the construction industry in recent years allow to specify the factors that largely determine the conditions for construction enterprises devel-opment and shaping their competitiveness. Research background: The specifics and operation conditions of enterprises including the construction sector companies cause sensitivity to economic fluctua-tions manifested in the cyclical disorders of economic activity level (business cy-cles). Background research work is to determine the effect of internal and external environment on a range of determinants of the economic situation fluctuations potentially occurring in the sphere of the construction sector. Purpose of the article: The aim of this article is to present the main factors affect-ing economic condition fluctuations in the construction sector and their impact on company operation. Methodology/methods: The following research methods and tools are used in this work: analysis and critique of literature, examination of documents, analysis and synthesis, descriptive statistics. Findings: The result of the study and documents analysis will include identifica-tion of factors affecting to the highest degree the economic fluctuations in the construction sector. These factors will be specified from among the macro-economic environment but mainly from the internal environment of the company. Developed proposals will be useful in building the short- and long-term operation strategy for both the construction companies and the entire sphere of the construc-tion sector. |
| Keywords: | economic situation; determinants; factors; internal environment; the construction sector |
| JEL: | D24 E32 F60 L78 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no74&r=dcm |
| By: | Aaron Flaaen |
| Abstract: | Using unique transaction-level microdata, this paper documents profit-shifting behavior by U.S. multinational firms via the strategic transfer pricing of intra-firm trade. A simple model reveals how differences in tax rates, both the corporate tax rates across countries and the dividend repatriation tax rate over time, affect the worldwide profit-maximizing transfer-prices set by firms for intra-firm exports and imports. I test the predictions of the model in the context of the 2004 Homeland Investment Act (HIA), a one-time tax repatriation holiday which generated a discreet change in the incentives for U.S. firms to shift profits to low-tax jurisdictions. Matching individual trade transactions by firm, product, country, mode-of-transport, and month across arms-length and related-party transactions (following Bernard, Jensen, and Schott (2006) ) yields a measure of the transfer-price wedge at a point in time. A difference-in-difference strategy reveals that this wedge responds as predicted by the model: In the period following passage of the HIA, the export transfer price wedge increased in low-tax relative to high-tax countries, while the import transfer price wedge exhibited the opposite behavior. Consistent with the form of tax avoidance known as "round-tripping, the results imply $6 billion USD of under-reported U.S. exports, nearly $7 billion USD of over-reported U.S. imports, and roughly $2 billion USD in foregone U.S. corporate tax receipts. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Taxes ; Intra-firm Trade ; Multinational firms ; Profit-Shifting ; Transfer Prices |
| JEL: | F23 H26 F14 H25 H32 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-55&r=dcm |
| By: | Jovanka Damoska Sekuloska (University of Information Science and Technology “St. Paul the Apostle”) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Foreign direct investment is perceived as a valuable tool for economic growth. The growth could be realized less and more as a set of benefits depending on the FDIs features. In the period from 2009 to 2014 it is noticed a remarkable increase in the share of FDIs inflow in automotive sector in Macedonian economy, from 2.8% to 11.2%. Thus, the issue of FDIs inflow in automotive sector is a strong reason and an incentive to be examined from different aspects of influence on the economic growth. Purpose of the article: The aim of the paper is to analyze the influence of the increased FDIs inflow in automotive industry as a reason behind the remarkable export growth. The research interest of the study is to recognize the importance of the FDIs inflow structure as a determinant of the export structure. Methodology/methods:Within the paper it is developed a model that identifies the FDIs as a factor of growth of the export performances. A regression analysis is used to examine the correlation between the FDIs inflow and export. Since the correlation doesn’t explain the causality, within the paper the Granger causality test is applied to examine causality between the FDIs inflow and increased export. Findings:The results suggest that FDIs create a good base for qualitative shift in the export structure of Macedonian economy. The paper associates growth of sectoral export with the growth of FDIs in that sector. Due to the increased FDI inflow in automotive industry this sector significantly has increased its share in total Macedonian export. The paperindicates that FDIs can be considered as a way of engagement in the global supplying chains which additionally influences positively to the competitiveness and export potentials of the host suppliers. |
| Keywords: | FDI; automotive industry; export; competitiveness |
| JEL: | F14 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no22&r=dcm |
| By: | Ai Hisano (Harvard Business School, General Management Unit) |
| Abstract: | This working paper examines how innovations in transparent packaging, specifically cellophane, in the mid-twentieth century United States helped retailers to create full self-service merchandising systems, including selling perishable food. While self-service stores began appearing in the late 1910s, self-service was initially applied only to grocery and dry goods, such as canned foods and a box of breakfast cereals. It was not until after World War II that the majority of American grocers adopted self-service to meat and produce sections. Business historians have explored the development of this self-service merchandising from the perspectives of marketing strategies, store operations, and relationships between customers and store clerks. However, the significance of the development of cellophane as a new packaging material, and the role of packaging manufacturers in promoting self-service, has yet to be analyzed. This working paper fills this void by showing that the expansion of self-service operation and the increasing use of transparent packaging had a significant impact not only on how consumers purchased foods but also on how they understood food quality. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:17-106&r=dcm |
| By: | Michal Cupial (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Anna Szelag-Sikora (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Jakub Sikora (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Joanna Rorat (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Marcin Niemiec (University of Agriculture in Krakow) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Knowledge management is currently one of the most important factors determining the company's market position. It depends not only on the skilful use of resources, but also on obtaining a synergistic effect. To manage knowledge, managers must possess not only the appropriate resources of knowledge, but also must have determined management structure with the assistance of the IT tools. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the article was to present how the modern enterprise knowledge management process is supported by information technology. For this purpose, was summarized selected indicators characterizing the use of ICT in various types of enterprises in the country. It assumed that it is important not only the equipment the companies with information technology tools, but also the degree of use of these tools. Methodology/methods: In this paper was used data published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), Eurostat, the World Data Bank and Gartner Group. The analyzed indicators of ICT usage are presented in Polish enterprises divided according to the type of activity and size (small, medium, large). National indicators were related to the values occurring in the EU. Findings: Usage of ICT in Poland reaches ratios much lower than the average for the European Union. Large differences in the use of information technology occurs in individual groups of companies. Larger companies have reached a much higher degree of saturation of IT tools than smaller objects. For example, the number of Polish enterprises with computers was 94.7%, in the case of large companies it is 99.8%. Even greater discrepancy relates to access to the Internet. You may also notice differences in each province. Introduction of modern technologies related to computer science and computers (eg. cloud computing, big data, social media, e-commerce etc) enables effective knowledge management in companies. The indicators show that the management team appreciates the importance of knowledge and consistently invests for its development. |
| Keywords: | knowledge management, information technology, IT, computer, internet users |
| JEL: | D83 L63 O31 Q19 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no20&r=dcm |
| By: | Elena Gentili (Istituto di Economia Politica (IdEP), Università della Svizzera Italiana, Switzerland.); Fabrizio Mazzonna (Istituto di Economia Politica (IdEP), Università della Svizzera Italiana, Switzerland; Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA).) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of language in determining the degree of substitutability between foreign and native workers. To this end, we focus on Switzerland, an immigration-receiving country with four official languages spoken, three of which in common with bordering countries. We modify the model proposed by Ottaviano and Peri (2012) to account for the linguistic background of native and immigrant workers. We find that language plays a central role in determining the elasticity of substitution between foreign and native workers and accounts for much of their imperfect substitutability. These findings are robust to a number of robustness checks, such as different specifications of the model structure and the inclusion of cross-border workers. Then, we compute the total wage change for native and foreign workers caused by new immigration in flows. In the long run, the average percentage wage changes for native and foreign workers are quite small and not significant. |
| Keywords: | International migration, Immigrant-native substitutability, Language |
| JEL: | J31 J6 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lug:wpidep:1702&r=dcm |
| By: | Maria Bernat (Opole Univeristy of Technology); Anna Bruska (Opole University); Anna Jasinska- Biliczak (Opole University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | SME’s play crucial role in economy’s development. In EU they make up 99% of all enterprises and are at the forefront of technological innovations (Kotler et al., 1999, pp. 139-140; EC 2013, p. 2; Jasinska-Biliczak, 2016, p. 30). Being the flywheel for economies (Soininen et. al., 2012, p. 614) are called “hidden champions” of 20th century. Over past few years Europe-wide analyses (Griffin, 2004, p. 424) have emphasised the importance of investing in SME’s. Taking into consideration that cultural environment is the background to decisions: social, managerial, development (Hofstede et al., 2011, p. 46), so innovations, knowledge, skills and competences as well as culture reinforce each other. Research is the attempt of pointing the cultural background role in the SME’s innovations and in the regional economy at the example of Opole Region. Results will contribute to stimulate, develop and adopt the policies at regional level, which aim regional dimension of SME’s growth and their cultural base. Methods of desk research were applied with fields research using in-depth interviews to achieve research purpose. Mapping as the interdisciplinary visualization technology permitted to clarify research results. The phenomenon of cultural background for innovations in SME’s was studied in regional dimension. Research allows to state that in analysed region, strongly settled in multicultural environment, cultural background turns out to be factor influencing innovations in SME’s. So regional authorities should take that finding into account when planning regional policy, especially focused on enterprises’ development. The use of cultural factor as strong side of the enterprise should be promoted as well as experiences based at the cultural backgrounds exchanged between SME’s in region. So integrated action plans may enhance the best practise spreading in region and contribute innovative growth in SME’s sector. |
| Keywords: | innovations in small and medium enterprises; SME’s growth; innovation; cultural background; SME’s regional dimension |
| JEL: | O31 O47 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no12&r=dcm |
| By: | Katarzyna Osiecka (Warsaw University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: Polish economy for several years which is a subject to continuous transformation, has a close relationship with three overlapping during the process: the transformation of the economy, Polish integration with the European Union and globalization. All these processes are mutually penetrate and carry consequences for the development of the most important economic indicators. Purpose of the article: The changing of social and economic conditions which households face always influence their important choises on both the expenditure and raise money, behavior in the surrounding reality, shaping their needs and expectations with respect to the purchased products and services. By the fact that consumption behavior are subject to constant changes and fluctuations, they must be under continuous observation and confrontation with determinants that determine these changes. The most important factor in these changes is the income available to households, as well as the rate of price increases, or the savings rate. Methodology/methods: The assumption that the structure of household expenditure is subject to change according to the mechanism described by Markov chain is difficult to interpret in this point of view. However, the lack of a clear interpretation of the process does not interfere with the usage of Markov chains to study the structure of changes. Findings: The impact of these characteristics of the economic and financial changes in the structure of household expenditure is reduced to the study of heterogeneous chains, in which the elements of the matrix of transition probabilities are defined by the functions of these characteristics and treated as variables. |
| Keywords: | consumption, structure of expenditure, households expenditure, Markov’s chains |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no86&r=dcm |
| By: | Oliver Krebs; Michael Pflüger |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effects of trade liberalization envisioned in a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union. We use a new quantitative spatial trade model with consumptive and productive uses of land and inputoutput linkages. Our calibration draws mainly on the World Input Output Database (WIOD). The eventual outcome of the negotiations is uncertain. Tariffs in EU-US-trade are already very low, however, so that an agreement will have a major impact only by eliminating non-tariff barriers. These are extremely hard to quantify. We address these uncertainties by considering a corridor of trade liberalization paths and by providing numerous robustness checks. We find that even with ambitious liberalization, real income gains within a TTIP are in the range of up to 0.46% for most countries. The effect on outside countries is often negative, and even smaller. Taking land into account scales down the welfare effects quite strongly. Interestingly, we find that all German counties derive unambiguous welfare gains even though the model allows for negative terms-of-trade effects, in principle. Our analysis also implies that in order to arrive at the same welfare gains as under a TTIP, a multilateral liberalization would have to be much more ambitious for the US than for the EU. |
| Keywords: | international trade and trade policy, factor mobility, intermediate inputs, sectoral interrelations, transatlantic trade, TTIP |
| JEL: | F11 F16 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:168_krebspflueger&r=dcm |
| By: | Joanna Malecka (Poznan University of Technology Faculty of Engineering Management Strzelecka 11, 60-965 Poznan, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Research background: International trade is an important stimulant for economic development that simultaneously ensures free access to raw materials, goods, services and technologies. It essentially involves trade in goods, yet what is also significant is the invisible trading sphere (tourism, transport, financing sources). Being a vital factor in macro-economic policies pursued by contemporary national economies, SMEs build the single market, which integrates the European economy, through trade development that directly fosters economic growth. Purpose of the article: The article strives to answer the question whether EU-based SMEs enjoy benefits and greater stability as well as state support when operating in foreign markets. The article presents the contribution of SMEs to international trade conducted by selected EU countries and Poland. The results of the author’s own research relate to the share of SMEs in the sectoral and geographical structure. Methodology/methods: The research findings are based on source data from annual reports and publications that have been produced and made available by financial market institutions and on the author’s own research concerning Polish entrepreneurs. The volume and structure of SME imports and exports in the various markets are outlined by means of analyses, figures and comparisons. Findings: The author’s own research shows that Polish entrepreneurs operating in international markets are primarily driven by: (1) profitability of transactions, (2) prospects for establishing long-term cooperation, and (3) high demand for products originating in their country in foreign markets. The ongoing standardisation and unification with respect to internationalisation should be supported by the state along with forms of financial security and contract insurance. What SMEs expect most is support as regards co-financing investments that are a necessary and costly element of the international activity development process. |
| Keywords: | export; import; SME; international trade; internationalisation |
| JEL: | F02 F43 F63 L11 L26 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no68&r=dcm |
| By: | Silvia Gardini (University of Bologna, Department of Management Studies); F. Marta L. Di Lascio (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Faculty of Economics and Management); Franco Visani (University of Bologna, Department of Management Studies) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses how company-specific financial factors and country-specific institutional and cultural factors affect the extent to which companies disclose Non-GAAP Financial Measures (NGFMs) in their financial communications. Our study is based on the analysis of 1,731 quarterly financial reports from 120 companies located in 23 countries and listed in Standard & Poor’s Global Oil Index. The results provide evidence that supports both the informative theory on NGFMs (asserting that NGFMs are disclosed to provide the investors with higher quality information) and the opportunistic theory (affirming that NGFMs are disclosed to mislead investors). On one side we see that highly indebted companies more frequently disclose NGFMs, but they are conservative in their adjustments, which is consistent with the informative theory. On the other side, low profitability is a driver of positive adjustments providing evidence of an opportunistic behaviour. The regulation on NGFMs has a positive effect on disclosure and does not increase conservatism. It increases the transparency of adjustments, but more in a formal way than substantially. Also the specific set of accounting standards adopted has a relevant effect on the disclosure of NGFMs. The cultural factors play a role partially consistent with this theory, but on average their impact is negligible. Our study was the first to analyse the use of NGFMs including companies from different continents and considering the impact of cultural variables. From a theoretical point of view, the results provide evidence that an informative and opportunistic use of NGFMs coexist and that different factors (mainly company-specific financial factors and institutional factors) lead to different practices. From a practical point of view the analysis provides interesting evidence for the evolution of regulations on NGFMs. |
| Keywords: | non-GAAP financial measures, institutional factors, cultural factors, voluntary disclosure, accounting standards |
| JEL: | M40 M41 M48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps41&r=dcm |
| By: | Agata Zoltaszek (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz); Alicja Olejnik (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | Innovation constitutes an important factor for growth in all EU countries. Regions of the EU play a principle role in shaping new innovation trajectories and in bringing out the hidden potential for national growth. However, it is not only the level of innovation that diversifies regions, but also the innovative potential and the level of its realization. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to assess the realization of innovative potential, defined as effectiveness, in EU NUTS 0 and, if possible, NUTS 2 regions. To accomplish this goal a relative effectiveness method in used. The DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) makes it possible to analyse the relative technical effectiveness based on regional inputs and outputs, without incorporating the legal and technological specifications of innovations, thus treating it like a production process. The inputs of the process are employment in technology and knowledge-intensive sectors and R&D expenditure, while the outputs include the number of patents and GDP. All variables are standardized by the size of the economically active population. DEA results divide regions in to two groups – effective, being the leaders; and ineffective, or followers. The DEA approach was combined and extended by ESDA (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis) in order to pinpoint spatial patterns of innovation efficiency across NUTS 2 regions. Defining the best practices and implementing the learning-from-the-best policy is important in the process of regional development and specialization |
| Keywords: | regional innovation, effectiveness, DEA (data envelopment analysis), regional development, spatial autocorrelation, ESDA (exploratory spatial data analysis) |
| JEL: | C44 C46 C38 O31 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:8/2017&r=dcm |
| By: | Wei Cui (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); University College London (UCL)); Leo Kaas (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | Recessions are often accompanied by spikes of corporate default and prolonged declines of business credit. This paper argues that credit and default cycles are the outcomes of variations in self-fulfilling beliefs about credit market conditions. We develop a tractable macroeconomic model in which leverage ratios and interest spreads are determined in optimal credit contracts that reflect the expected default risk of borrowing firms. We calibrate the model to evaluate the impact of sunspots and fundamental shocks on the credit market and on output dynamics. Self-fulfilling changes in credit market expectations trigger sizable reactions in default rates and generate endogenously persistent credit and output cycles. All credit market shocks together account for about 50% of the variation of U.S. output growth during 1982-2015. |
| Keywords: | Firm default, Financing constraints, Credit spreads, Sunspots |
| JEL: | E22 E32 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1716&r=dcm |
| By: | Rita Remeikiene (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, V. Kudirkos 18-2, 03105, Vilnius, Lithuania); Ligita Gaspareniene (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, V. Kudirkos 18-2, 03105, Vilnius, Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | The increase in the demand for organic products prompts the establishment of green farms. In spite of the large global interest in green farming, scientific literature is not rich in the studies that cover the issues of green farming development. Although previous studies examine different aspects of green business, the factors that facilitate or impede the development of green farming, especially at the national level, are hardly considered. In order to fill this gap in the scientific literature, we formulate the following problem of the research: what opportunities of green farming development can be envisaged in Lithuania? To explore the opportunities of green farming development in Lithuania on the basis of the general features of green business development. Comparative and systematic analysis of the scientific literature, graphic and comparative data analyses, and expert evaluation. The researched has enabled to identify the factors that facilitate and impede green farming development in Lithuania. On the basis of the results of the expert evaluation, the recommendations for green farming development in Lithuania were provided. It was found that the main barriers that disturb smooth development of green farming in Lithuania mainly include economic and social obstacles. Frequently changing regulations on organic farming, complicated procedures of green farming certification and lack of information about the support and subsidies call for the development of a consistent green farming monitoring system and conduct of the efficient green market research. Extensive networking systems would provide the opportunities for green farmers to share their experience and observe all the economic changes: new market niches, demand-supply indicators, new channels of product delivery, etc. Non-financial green farming support measures (e.g. consultations, training, provision of information, etc.) could substantially contribute to the development of green farming in Lithuania. |
| Keywords: | green business, green farming, organic foods, Lithuania. |
| JEL: | Q13 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no99&r=dcm |
| By: | Zbigniew Kurylek (WSB School of Banking in Wroclaw) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The article refers to the introduced bank regulations aiming at maintaining capital adequacy of banks and a stable situation in the banking sector, allowing to keep the financial system stable at a time of a possible financial or systemic crisis. Purpose of the article: This article aims at presenting methods of protecting banks. It mostly focuses on the capital structure and the use of capital assets to repay liabilities in a situation that poses a risk to the continued functioning of a banking sector or a financial system. Methodology/methods: Our research was conducted by ways of analysing literature on using bail-in in the banking sector during an ordered bank restructuring or a winding up process. Data analysis was conducted with the use of statistical methods, including correlation analysis, followed by a comparative analysis of obtained results. The level of interdependence was determined on the basis of Pearson’s correlation analysis, and the results were verified with the use of J. Guildford’s classification of interdependence. Findings & Value added: The article presents bail-in — an instrument aiming at performing ordered restructuring or winding up of a bank in the context of capital adequacy of banks in the European Union. The text shows how quickly and strongly capital adequacy rate of banks was changing in specific EU member states between 2006 and 2016, including the variation value evaluated with regard to the division into developed and developing countries. What is more, the article also points at current directions of changes in capital structure of banks in EU member states. |
| Keywords: | bail–in, financial crisis, capital adequacy |
| JEL: | G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no56&r=dcm |
| By: | Joanna Prystorm (University of Bialystok, Faculty of Economics and Management, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The advancing globalization processes, the take-up on the strength of competition, or the ever-changing needs of the people are forcing economies and the functioning of these entities, constantly being innovative. Innovation is a kind of “an idea for a better tomorrow”, which can help you to persevere in this turbulent environment, and not “innovate, that is, to die” (Freeman, 1973). It is obvious, that aspect of innovations already tested since time immemorial, but innovation economy of India, which until a few years ago, grew at the fastest pace in the world, seems to be a worthy area to study. The purpose of the present discourse is an attempt to present the role of innovations in one of the fastest developing economies – Indian economy, as well as elaboration on the aspects of its innovativeness compared with the group of most innovative, competitive and well developed economies in the world. literature analysis, data analysis, statistical analysis of the data source, Pearson's correlation coefficient. The Indian economy is one of the most innovative in BRICS group. India is aware of the role of innovation in economic development, which confirms, among other things the fact that many institutions and government action is aimed at supporting innovative activity in the country (for example DRDO, ISRO, IIP, FICCI, or NIF and C-DAC). In the state of changing customers’ expectations, modern technologies successfully develop not only in the Europe, United States or Japan. To the circle of innovative tycoons candidate also India where in the recent years, economic development is significantly dynamic. Modern technologies in India are considered better. Innovations constitute important area of Indian economy and decisive solutions and interesting methods can be interesting for the European entrepreneurs. After the crisis, the situation of Europe will be more complicated. It is widely known that dynamically developing world will decide on the developing economies. It means that they will need more raw materials for the fulfilment of the growing appetite and huge innovation pressure for the search of adequate solutions for rich and still averagely poor markets. Therefore, not only tablets for 35 USD appear but also new energetic technologies. The Indian innovativeness is giving this to world. India as a country struggling economic crisis and the actions taken in connection with the chance which brings with it innovation, can serve as a worthy model to follow. Courageous, but - it seems - be a matching statement might be: “... you do not have sufficient funds to purchase the newest Ipod, try to create their own, much cheaper ... you will certainly find interest among potential customers ...” |
| Keywords: | innovativeness, economic development, India, world innovation leaders, BRICS |
| JEL: | O3 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no95&r=dcm |
| By: | Karolina Tura-Gawron (Gdansk University of Technology, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The Central Bank of Sweden declares the use of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision making process depends on the central banks’ forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision making algorithm called the ‘rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT which later includes the optimal monetary policy plan. The aim of the article is to: (1) analyse the influence of the inflation rate and GDP growth rate on the repo rate decisions, (2) analyse the influence of the inflation rate and GDP growth rate forecasts (in two year horizon) on the repo rate decisions in Sweden in years 1999-2006. The main research question is as follows: did the Monetary Policy Commitee in Sweden in years 1999-2006 made the decisions on the repo rates on the basis of forecast-based instrument rules and the rule of the thumb algorithm. The analysis encompasses the repo rates decisions, CPI inflation rate, GDP growth rate, central paths of CPI inflation forecasts and central paths of GDP growth rate forecasts in the two years horizon published by The Central Bank of Sweden in years 1999-2006. The studies are based on the Taylor-type instrument rule and forecast-based Taylor-type instrument rule. The methodology used is multiple linear regression models. The Central Bank of Sweden in years 1999-2006 implemented direct inflation forecast targeting (DIFT) rule. The decision making algorithm was based on the CPI inflation forecasts and rule of the thumb algorithm. The exact rule of the thumb was as follow: if the inflation forecast, in the two year forecast’s horizon exceeded the inflation target by 1 p.p., then the central bank raised the repo rate by 0.4 p.p; if is below , then the central bank reduced the repo rate by 0.4 p.p. If the inflation forecast was equal to the inflation target, then the repo rate remained unchanged. The historical repo rates differ from the theoretical estimated rule of the thumb’s repo rates by +/-0.28 p.p. |
| Keywords: | inflation targeting regime, decision making process, repo rates |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no135&r=dcm |
| By: | Joanna Rorat (University of Agriculture in Krakow, Faculty of Production and Power Engineering, ul. Balicka 116B, 30-149 Krakow, Poland); Anna Szelag-Sikora (University of Agriculture in Krakow, Faculty of Production and Power Engineering, ul. Balicka 116B, 30-149 Krakow, Poland); Marcin Niemiec (Department of Agricultural and Environmental Chemistry, ul. Balicka 116B, 30-149 Krakow, Poland); Jakub Sikora (University of Agriculture in Krakow, Faculty of Production and Power Engineering, ul. Balicka 116B, 30-149 Krakow, Poland); Michal Cupial (University of Agriculture in Krakow, Faculty of Production and Power Engineering, ul. Balicka 116B, 30-149 Krakow, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Agricultural sector of polish national economy is an example of entrepreneurship - especially individual one, dealing with underdevelopment of technological, intellectual and institutional infrastructure what is a serious threat to the usage of potential of the financial resources available due to polish membership in the European Union. The possibility of gaining financial support and entering the European market caused dynamic increase in the number of entities engaged in agricultural activities with ecological characteristics - in Poland and whole EU- and mainly this sector of production is treated with priority in currently realized Common Agricultural Policy in European Union countries. At the same time it should be remarked that managing agricultural companies is aimed at achieving their specific goals of a financial nature - as in other sectors of the national economy. The main aim of this thesis is to show the impact of financial support coming from European Union budget on the pace of development of the organic sector in Poland compared to other European Union countries. To fulfill the aim of the thesis the available financial mechanisms (the level of support, the main criteria for accesses) were characterized as well as legal aspects regulating them on the national level and in selected EU countries. General issues included provide also the characteristics of the problem of European market of ecological products. The study contains an assessment of the current use of the financial resources of the EU (after accession to the EU, i.e. 2004) addressed to organic farming. The thesis has been prepared based on the analysis of subject literature, applicable laws, as well as the documents / reports prepared by the major stakeholders in the country and EU responsible for gaining and gathering information on country level as well as chosen EU countries. In the thesis a comparative analysis has been carried out as well as tabular – numerical analysis with regard to the volatility during the analyzed events. The observed absorption of EU financial resources in the agricultural sector in all European countries – especially in recent years in Poland- shows how big are the needs for financial support of agricultural production for sustaining for example the stability of market prices of food products. In the era of increasing consumer awareness on the rational nutrition we observe revival of market of organic products. However the increase in market absorptive capacity is the only factor determining the development of ecological agriculture? Or are there any other financial support mechanisms? High subsidy rates (an average of approx. 950 PLN/ha and growing every year, with an average area of ecological farms above 20 ha) caused a significant increase in the number of ecological farms (within 10 years of joining the EU over 1400%). It is reasonable to assume that as long as there will be economic incentives, business farmers will be interested in the transition to an ecological way of farming, an example of which are other EU countries. |
| Keywords: | EU funds, agricultural development, eco products market |
| JEL: | Q12 Q14 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no102&r=dcm |
| By: | Gary Burtless; Anqi Chen; Wenliang Hou; Alicia H. Munnell |
| Abstract: | Policymakers have long known that the retirement of the baby boom generation would produce significant deficits for the Social Security program. Restoring balance will require raising taxes, reducing benefits, or both. Some observers argue that shifting a portion of the Social Security trust fund from bonds to stocks, as part of a comprehensive reform package, could reduce the size of the required tax increases or benefit cuts. Other countries, such as Canada and Japan, invest a portion of their social security assets in equities, so precedents exist. Equity investments, however, would expose the program to greater financial risk and, potentially, greater political risk. This brief, based on a recent paper, assesses the costs and benefits of investing in equities. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides background on the debate over investing trust fund reserves in equities. The second section investigates how investing in equities would have affected the finances of Social Security if the policy had been adopted in the past and if the policy were adopted today as part of a package to restore solvency over the next 75 years. It also includes a welfare analysis to address the contention that people will not value lower taxes in good times as much as they will dislike tax hikes in bad times. The third section addresses the non-financial issues associated with equity investing, such as the impact on capital markets and corporate governance and how to account for the possibility of higher expected returns without giving the impression that the government could solve all its problems simply by selling bonds and buying stocks. The final section concludes that both retrospective and prospective analyses suggest that investing a portion of the Social Security trust fund in equities would improve its finances; little evidence exists that trust fund equity investments would disrupt the stock market; equity investments could be structured to avoid government interference with capital markets or corporate decision making; and accounting for returns on a risk-adjusted basis would avoid the appearance of a free lunch. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2017-10&r=dcm |
| By: | Adam P. Balcerzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University) |
| Abstract: | Effective digital economy is currently considered as a factor that can increase chances for avoiding middle income trap in Central European economies. Taking into account regional perspective building conditions for developing digital economy can support the process of closing development gap and utilizing the potential of convergence in the case of underdeveloped or peripheral regions. As a result, supporting the digital economy is currently considered as an important policy objective both form national and regional perspective. Thus, the objective of the article is to compare the development level of the digital economy in Czech Republic, Slovak and Hungary. The research was conducted for the year 2015. In the research the digital economy is defined as a multiple-criteria phenomenon, which is described with diagnostic variables proposed by Eurostat for measurement of the digital economy at regional level (NUTS 1). In the article TOPSIS method was implemented. In the case of every multiple-criteria analysis tasks a basic dilemma relates to the problem of applying weights for variables used in the research, which should be appropriate for their importance in forming the measured phenomenon. To solve that problem two approaches were applied here. First, the TOSPIS method with equal weights for all the variables was used. In the second approach the TOPSIS method was extended with Shannon entropy and objective weights concept. The obtained results confirm some disparities between the regions in the analyzed part of Central Europe and the importance of habits and human capital in the process of utilizing potential of the digital economy. |
| Keywords: | digital economy; multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA); TOPSIS; Shannon entropy; objective weights |
| JEL: | P25 C38 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no1&r=dcm |
| By: | Marcel Kordos (Alexander Dubcek University in Trencin, Slovak Republic) |
| Abstract: | International trade means the exchange of goods or services along international borders. This type of trade allows for a greater competition and more competitive pricing in the market. Probably the most important single insight in all of international economics is that there are gains from trade - that is, when countries sell goods and services to each other, this exchange is almost always to their mutual benefit. Importing and exporting of goods is big business in today's global economy thus international trade is supposed to be beneficial for a particular economy even for the USA. The question is arising if Americans shouldn’t buy American goods whenever possible, to help create jobs in the United States. Paper deals with issues such as the U.S. international trade characteristics in terms of territorial and commodity structure, the U.S. export trade promotion strategy, the impact of trade on the US economy and international trade development as well as President’s Obama strategy regarding the U.S. international trade strategy. This study is analyzing the US trade policy agenda and discussing the impact of foreign trade on the U.S. economy and its current status in international economic relations. To accomplish this goal, methods such as analysis, comparison, synthesis and logical deduction are to be used; facts from scientific and professional publications, periodical and non-periodical press. International trade of the United States is one of the world's most significant economic markets. The country is among the top three global importers and exporters. USA has trade relations with many other countries. Through efficiency, competition, and relationships the international trade can increase economic growth and allow for all countries to benefit from it. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness enhancement, export promotion strategy, international economics, jobs creation |
| JEL: | F19 F59 F63 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no47&r=dcm |