nep-dcm New Economics Papers
on Discrete Choice Models
Issue of 2016‒04‒23
three papers chosen by
Edoardo Marcucci
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Where Did It Go Wrong? Marriage and Divorce In Malawi By Laurens Cherchye; Bram De Rock; Selma Telalagic Walther; Frederic Vermeulen
  2. Forecasting effects of congestion charges By West , Jens; Börjesson , Maria; Engelson , Leonid
  3. Managed Realignment for Flood Risk Reductions: What are the Drivers of Public Willingness to Pay? By Katherine Simpson; Nick Hanley

  1. By: Laurens Cherchye; Bram De Rock; Selma Telalagic Walther; Frederic Vermeulen
    Abstract: Abstract: Do individuals divorce for economic reasons? Can we measure the attractiveness of new matches in the marriage market? We answer these questions using a structural model of the household and a rich panel dataset from Malawi. We propose a model of the household with consumption, production and revealed preference conditions for stability on the marriage market. We define marital instability in terms of the consumption gains to remarrying another individual in the same marriage market, and to being single. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the wife’s estimated consumption gains from remarriage is significantly associated with a 0.6 percentage point increase in divorce probability in the next three years. In a multinomial model, higher values of consumption gains from remarriage raise the odds of divorce and remarriage but not of divorce and singleness. These findings provide out-of-sample validation of the structural model and shed new light on the economic determinants of divorce.
    Keywords: Marriage Market, Divorce, Malawi, Agricultural Production, Revealed Preference
    JEL: D11 D12 D13 J12
    Date: 2016–03–10
  2. By: West , Jens (KTH/Sweco); Börjesson , Maria (KTH); Engelson , Leonid (KTH)
    Abstract: This paper performs an ex-post evaluation of the transport model forecast of the effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. We find that the predicted traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was under-predicted in off-peak. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, including a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data, but had to be adjusted to be consistent with observed outcome. One reason for the discrepancy may be that VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal travellers’ long-term preferences. Another reason may be that apart from distance, travel time and charge there are other factors that determine drivers’ route choice.
    Keywords: Congestion charges; Transport model; Validation; Value of time; Volume delay function; Decision support
    JEL: R41 R42 R48
    Date: 2016–03–29
  3. By: Katherine Simpson (Economics Division, University of Stirling); Nick Hanley (Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews)
    Abstract: Offering several advantages over traditional “hold the line” flood defences, including the supply of ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and habitat provision, managed realignment is increasingly being used as a flood defence option. This paper seeks to add to the growing literature on public perceptions of the benefits of managed realignment by examining local resident’s knowledge of estuarine management issues and identifying their willingness to pay (WTP) towards a new managed realignment scheme on the Tay Estuary, Scotland. Results showed that the majority of respondents were not aware of flood risk issues on the estuary or of different flood defence options. Furthermore a “miss-match” between flood risk perceptions was highlighted with respondents stating they were not at risk from flooding when in fact they lived in a flood risk zone. Household mean WTP for a specific managed realignment scheme was calculated as £43 per annum. Significant drivers of WTP included respondents perceived flood risk and worries about the state of existing flood defences. There was also significant spatial heterogeneity with those living closest to the scheme being WTP the most. Prior knowledge of flood risk issues and managed realignment was found not to significantly affect WTP.
    Keywords: Contingent valuation, Information, Knowledge, Ecosystem Services, Flooding, Flood Risk
    JEL: Q51 Q57 D83
    Date: 2016–03

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