nep-dcm New Economics Papers
on Discrete Choice Models
Issue of 2015‒01‒19
six papers chosen by
Edoardo Marcucci
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Resisting to the Extortion Racket: an Empirical Analysis By Michele Battisti; Andrea Mario Lavezzi; Lucio Masserini; Monica Pratesi
  2. State dependence and labour market transitions in the European Union. By Richard Duhautois; Christine Erhel; Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière
  3. Demand Analysis using Strategic Reports: An application to a school choice mechanism By Nikhil Agarwal; Paulo Somaini
  4. Greening Household Behaviour and Transport By Ilka Ehreke; Boris Jaeggi; Kay W. Axhausen
  5. What Affects Brand Equity: The Precise Measurement With Consumer Choice Model By Natalia A. Kochkina; Olga V. Novikova; Dmitriy B. Potapov
  6. Choice of Received Long-term Care – Individual Responses to Regional Nursing Home Provisions By Adam Pilny; Magdalena A. Stroka

  1. By: Michele Battisti (Università di Palermo); Andrea Mario Lavezzi (Università di Palermo); Lucio Masserini (Università di Pisa); Monica Pratesi (Università di Pisa)
    Abstract: In this paper we perform a statistical evaluation of whether it is worthwhile, in economic terms, to resist to extortion demands by the maa, from the point of view of rms operating in an area dominated by criminal organizations. We use a unique collected and matched database on rm characteristics on the city of Palermo, highly controlled by the maa racket. The underlined idea is that the claimed resistance has (direct and indirect) costs and benets, so that a rational rm should take this decision according its economic expectations on the future prots (in addition to potential ethic considerations). It means that the economic policy messages of this experience can be linked to make more protable the racket resistance (as a signal sent to the market). Our evidences based on multilevel discrete choice models show that this decision is strongly in uenced by socio-economic characteristics of the district, type of activity involved and other factors.
    Keywords: Organized Crime, Racketeering, Economic Growth, Discrete choice models.
    JEL: O17 K42 R11 C41
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Richard Duhautois (Centre d'Etudes de l'Emploi et Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Christine Erhel (Centre d'Etudes de l'Emploi et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière (Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers (LIRSA) et Centre d'Etudes de l'Emploi)
    Abstract: Using conditional dynamic multinomial logit models that allow to disentangle between state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, this article proposes an empirical analysis of labour market mobility in the European Union based on EU-SILC data. It shows that the role of true state dependence varies a lot across social groups (according to age, sex and education) and across countries. In particular, state dependence can be related for the different social groups and country groups studied to various structural explanations in terms of institutional arrangements (education and retirement policies, leave policies, childcare policies, labour market policies…) and/or to employers' behaviour.
    Keywords: Labour market mobility, state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, European Union, inequalities, institutions.
    JEL: J60 J62 J64 J68
    Date: 2014–11
  3. By: Nikhil Agarwal; Paulo Somaini
    Abstract: Several school districts use assignment systems in which students have a strategic incentive to misrepresent their preferences. Indeed, we find evidence suggesting that reported preferences in Cambridge, MA respond to these incentives. Such strategizing can complicate the analysis of preferences. The paper develops a new method for estimating preferences in such environments. Our approach views the report made by a student as a choice of a probability distribution over assignment to various schools. We introduce a large class of mechanisms for which consistent estimation is feasible. We then study identification of a latent utility preference model under the assumption that agents play a Bayesian Nash Equilibrium. Preferences are non-parametrically identified under either sufficient variation in choice environments or sufficient variation in a special regressor. We then propose a tractable estimation procedure for a parametric model based on Gibbs’ sampling. Estimates from Cambridge suggest that while 84% of students are assigned to their stated first choice, only 75% are assigned to their true first choice. The difference occurs because students avoid ranking competitive schools in favor of less competitive schools. Although the Cambridge mechanism is manipulable, we estimate that welfare for the average student would be lower in the popular Deferred Acceptance mechanism.
    JEL: C50 I20
    Date: 2014–12
  4. By: Ilka Ehreke; Boris Jaeggi; Kay W. Axhausen
    Abstract: This report focuses on personal transport choices. It presents the results of follow-up analysis of the 2011 OECD Survey on Environmental Policy and Individual Behaviour Change (EPIC) survey where econometric techniques are applied. The report complements the overview of the survey data provided in the publication OECD (2014). The objective of the analysis is to understand the determinants of household choices in the following areas: the use of alternative modes of transportation car ownership, willingness-to-pay for an electric vehicles and the relative importance of environmental factors when buying a car. The results indicate that the choice of non-motorized modes of transportation is strongly correlated with the proximity of the destination and that attitudinal variables play only a minor role. The same is true for the use of public transport. Households that say that they trust information about environmental impact of products, are better educated about impact of private transport and are in favour of government actions to reduce CO2, tend to have a higher willingness to pay for electric vehicles.<BR>Ce rapport porte sur le choix du mode de transport personnel. Il présente les résultats de travaux d’analyse qui s’inscrivent dans le prolongement de l’enquête sur la politique de l’environnement et le comportement individuel (EPIC) réalisée par l’OCDE en 2011, et qui ont donné lieu à l’application de techniques économétriques. Ce rapport complète la synthèse des données de l’enquête présentée dans l’ouvrage OCDE (2014). L’analyse vise à cerner les déterminants des choix effectués par les ménages concernant les aspects suivants : utilisation de moyens de déplacement alternatifs, motorisation, consentement à payer pour acquérir un véhicule électrique et importance relative des facteurs environnementaux lors de l’achat d’une voiture. Il en ressort que le recours à des modes de transport non motorisés est étroitement lié à la proximité de la destination et que les variables comportementales ne jouent qu’un rôle mineur. Il en va de même en ce qui concerne l’utilisation des transports publics. On relève généralement un consentement à payer pour acquérir un véhicule électrique supérieur chez les ménages qui déclarent faire confiance aux informations ayant trait à l’impact environnemental des produits, qui sont mieux sensibilisés aux répercussions du transport privé et qui sont favorables aux mesures prises par les pouvoirs publics afin de réduire les émissions de CO2.
    JEL: C51 D11 D12 R41 R48
    Date: 2014–12–11
  5. By: Natalia A. Kochkina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Olga V. Novikova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dmitriy B. Potapov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper investigates how different marketing variables (advertising, sales promotion and product assortment) affect brand equity. First, we assess weekly dynamics of brand equity intercepts using discrete choice model based on disaggregate store-level scanner data. Then we use these estimates as the dependent variable to study the impact of different marketing instruments. This paper contributes to the field basically in two ways: we measured brand equity of heterogeneous product taking into account its variety both on choice modeling stage and brand equity drivers estimation stage; we have got quite precise estimates because were able to exploit very detailed data about choices and marketing instruments. Our research reveals that share of voice of TV commercials affects brand equity positively and promotion intensity – negatively. Expanding product assortment, companies may enlarge brand equity by increasing the number of SKUs in large-format stores.
    Keywords: brand equity, scanner data, marketing-mix instruments, product assortment
    JEL: L81
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Adam Pilny; Magdalena A. Stroka
    Abstract: Existing literature analyzing the choice of received long-term care by frail elderly (65+ years) predominantly focuses on physical and psychological conditions of elderly people as factors that influence the decision for a particular type of care. Until now, however, the regional in-patient long-term care supply has been neglected as influential factor in the individual’s decision-making process. In this study, we analyze the choice of received long-term care by explicitly taking the regional supply of nursing homes into account. When estimating a discrete choice model, we distinguish between four different types of formal and informal care provision. We find that the decision for long-term in-patient care is significantly correlated with the regional supply of nursing home places, while controlling for physical and psychological conditions of the individual.
    Keywords: Informal care; formal care; choice of care; administrative data; nursing home supply
    JEL: C35 D12 I11
    Date: 2014–12

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