nep-dcm New Economics Papers
on Discrete Choice Models
Issue of 2012‒02‒27
three papers chosen by
Philip Yu
Hong Kong University

  1. Pregibit: A Family of Discrete Choice Models By Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C.; Vijverberg, Wim P.
  2. A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election By Christa Jensen; Donald Lacombe; Stuart McIntyre
  3. Ill-health and transitions to part-time work and self-employment among older workers By Zucchelli, E.;; Harris, M.;; Zhao, X.;

  1. By: Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C. (Wichita State University); Vijverberg, Wim P. (CUNY Graduate Center)
    Abstract: The pregibit discrete choice model is built on a distribution that allows symmetry or asymmetry and thick tails, thin tails or no tails. Thus the model is much richer than the traditional models that are typically used to study behavior that generates discrete choice outcomes. Pregibit nests logit, approximately nests probit, loglog, cloglog and gusset models, and yields a linear probability model that is solidly founded on the discrete choice framework that underlies logit and probit.
    Keywords: discrete choice, asymmetry, logit, probit, post-secondary education, mortgage application
    JEL: C25 G21 I21
    Date: 2012–02
  2. By: Christa Jensen (Regional Research Institute, Department of Economics, West Virginia University); Donald Lacombe (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Stuart McIntyre (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.
    Keywords: United Kingdom General Election, Bayesian hierarchical modelling, spatial econometrics
    JEL: C11 C21
    Date: 2011–11
  3. By: Zucchelli, E.;; Harris, M.;; Zhao, X.;
    Abstract: This paper employs a dynamic multinomial choice framework to provide new evidence on the effect of health on labour market transitions among older individuals. We consider retirement as a multi-state process and examine the effects of ill-health and health shocks on mobility between full-time employment, part-time employment, self-employment and inactivity. In order to disentangle the roles of unobserved individual heterogeneity and true state dependence, we estimate dynamic panel multinomial logit models with random effects, assuming a first order Markov process and accounting for the initial conditions problem. We also account for potential measurement error in the self-assessed health status by building a latent health stock model and employing measures of health shocks. Using data from the first nine waves of the (2001 - 2009) Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, we find that both ill-health and health shocks greatly increase the probability of leaving full-time employment towards inactivity. We also find evidence of health-driven part-time and selfemployment paths into inactivity.
    Keywords: ill-health; health shocks; labour transitions; dynamic multinomial choice models
    JEL: C23 I10 J24
    Date: 2012–02

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