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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Carlos Carrion-Madera; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | In the Minneapolis-St. Paul region (Twin Cities), the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) converted the Interstate 394 High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes to High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes (or MnPASS Express Lanes). These lanes allow single occupancy vehicles (SOV) to access the HOV lanes by paying a fee. This fee is adjusted according to a dynamic pricing system that varies with the current demand. This paper estimates the value placed by the travelers on the HOT lanes because of improvements in travel time reliability. This value depends on how the travelers regard a route with predictable travel times (or small travel time variability) in comparison to another with unpredictable travel times (or high travel time variability). For this purpose, commuters are recruited and equipped with Global Positioning System (GPS) devices and instructed to commute for two weeks on each of three plausible alternatives between their home in the western suburbs of Minneapolis eastbound to work in downtown or the University of Minnesota: I-394 HOT lanes, I-394 General Purpose lanes (untolled), and signalized arterials close to the I-394 corridor. They are then given the opportunity to travel on their preferred route after experiencing each alternative. This revealed preference data is then analyzed using mixed logit route choice models. Three measures of reliability are explored and incorporated in the estimation of the models: standard deviation (a classical measure in the research literature); shortened right range (typically found in departure time choice models); and interquartile range (75th - 25th percentile). Each of these measures represents distinct ways about how travelers deal with different sections of reliability. In all the models, it was found that reliability was valued highly (and statistically significantly), but differently according to how it was defined. The estimated value of reliability in each of the models indicates that commuters are willing to pay a fee for a reliable route depending on how they value their reliability savings. |
| JEL: | R40 I12 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:vorpaper&r=dcm |
| By: | Jacob Ladenburg (Danish Institute of Governmental Research); Søren Bøye Olsen (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a North-South endogenous growth model to examine thrThe potential for a number of common but severe biases in stated preference method surveys being gender dependent has been largely overlooked in the literature. In this paper we summarize results from three Choice Experiment studies that find evidence in favor of gender differences in vulnerability to biases. Specifically, the results indicate that women are more susceptible to starting point bias than men, while men are more susceptible to hypothetical bias than women. This seems to be interrelated with women inherently being more uncertain than men when choosing from a choice set. Furthermore, we set up a novel theoretical model, which provides an explanation for gender specific susceptibility to biases. We conclude that biases can indeed be gender dependent. Hence, researchers should not simply disregard potential gender differences, but rather take them into account and examine the extent of them when performing surveys. Finally, we give suggestions for future research in this area. |
| Keywords: | Choice Experiment, Gender, Hypothetical bias, Preference Uncertainty, Starting point bias |
| JEL: | J16 D80 Q51 |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:foi:wpaper:2010_01&r=dcm |
| By: | Ole Bonnichsen (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to examine and measure ostomates’ preferences for improvements in ostomy pouches. Described are the study design, elicitation procedure and resulting preference structure of the Swedish ostomate sample. The method used to elicit the preferences is a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE), where respondents are asked to choose between alternatives in choice sets. Each alternative is comprised of a number of attributes relating to the adhesive, filter and flexibility of ostomy pouches. The choice between alternatives made by the respondent implies an implicit trade-off between the attributes and allows for the estimation of individuals’ Willingness to Pay (WTP) for the attributes of ostomy pouches when cost is included as an attribute. The data consists of 254 ostomates responding to the survey. The respondents have positive WTP for all improvement attributes presented to them in the survey, with strongest preferences for reducing the number of leakages. The DCE utilised in the survey performs well in terms of reliability and validity of the obtained results. The results suggest that since reducing leakages is the most important attribute for the respondents when making their choices, emphasis should be placed on this attribute when decisions are made as to the allocation of scarce health care resources within research and development aimed at improving ostomy pouches. |
| Keywords: | Discrete Choice Experiment, stated preferences, WTP |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:foi:wpaper:2010_02&r=dcm |
| By: | Markus Lampe |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the empirical determinants of the treaty network of the 1860s and 1870s. It makes use of three central theories about the determinants of PTA formation, considering economic fundamentals from neoclassical and ‘new’ trade theory, political-economy variables, and international interaction due to trade diversion fears (dependence of later PTAs on former). These possible determinants are operationalized using a newly constructed dataset for bilateral cooperation and non-cooperation among 13 European Countries and the US. The results of logistic regression analysis show that the treaty network can be explained by a combination of ‘pure’ welfare-oriented economic theory with political economy and international interaction models. |
| Keywords: | Preferential trade agreements, Anglo-French treaty of Commerce, Bilateralism, Political economy, Qualitative choice models |
| JEL: | N73 F13 F5 |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:wp10-06&r=dcm |
| By: | Russell Cooper; John Haltiwanger; Jonathan L. Willis |
| Abstract: | This paper studies capital adjustment at the establishment level. Our goal is to characterize capital adjustment costs, which are important for understanding both the dynamics of aggregate investment and the impact of various policies on capital accumulation. Our estimation strategy searches for parameters that minimize ex post errors in an Euler equation. This strategy is quite common in models for which adjustment occurs in each period. Here, we extend that logic to the estimation of parameters of dynamic optimization problems in which non-convexities lead to extended periods of investment inactivity. In doing so, we create a method to take into account censored observations stemming from intermittent investment. This methodology allows us to take the structural model directly to the data, avoiding time-consuming simulationbased methods. To study the effectiveness of this methodology, we first undertake several Monte Carlo exercises using data generated by the structural model. We then estimate capital adjustment costs for U.S. manufacturing establishments in two sectors. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2010/21&r=dcm |