nep-dcm New Economics Papers
on Discrete Choice Models
Issue of 2008‒08‒31
four papers chosen by
Philip Yu
Hong Kong University

  1. A Simple Representation of the Bera-Jarque-Lee Test for Probit Models By Joachim Wilde
  2. Adaptive Self-Explication of Multi-attribute Preferences By Srinivasan, V. "Seenu"; Netzer, Oded
  3. Crossing the Line: The Effect of Cross Border Cigarette Sales on State Excise Tax Revenues By Chiou, Lesley; Muehlegger, Erich
  4. A Pecking Order Analysis of Graduate Overeducation and Educational Investment in China By D Mayston; J Yang

  1. By: Joachim Wilde
    Abstract: The inference in probit models relies on the assumption of normality. However, tests of this assumption are not implemented in standard econometric software. Therefore, the paper presents a simple representation of the Bera-Jarque-Lee test, that does not require any matrix algebra. Furthermore, the representation is used to compare the Bera-Jarque- Lee test with the RESET-type test proposed by Papke and Wooldridge (1996).
    Date: 2007–12
  2. By: Srinivasan, V. "Seenu" (Stanford U); Netzer, Oded (Columbia U)
    Abstract: In this research we propose a web-based adaptive self-explicated approach for multi-attribute preference measurement (conjoint analysis) with a large number (ten or more) of attributes. In the empirical application reported here the proposed approach provides a substantial and significant improvement in predictive ability over current preference measurement methods designed for handling a large number of attributes. Our approach also overcomes some of the limitations of previous self-explicated approaches. Two methods are commonly used to estimate attribute importances in self-explicated studies: ratings and constant-sum allocation. A common problem with the ratings approach is that it does not explicitly capture the tradeoff between attributes; it is easy for respondents to say that every attribute is important. The constant-sum approach overcomes this limitation, but with a large number of product attributes it becomes difficult for the respondent to divide a constant sum among all the attributes. We developed a computer-based self-explicated approach that breaks down the attribute importance question into a sequence of constant-sum paired comparison questions. We first used a fixed design in which the set of questions is chosen from a balanced orthogonal design and then extend it to an adaptive design in which the questions are chosen adaptively for each respondent to maximize the information elicited from each paired comparison question. Unlike the traditional self-explicated approach, the proposed approach provides (approximate) standard errors for attribute importance. In a study involving digital cameras described on twelve attributes, we find that the predictive validity (correctly predicted top choices) of the proposed adaptive approach is 35%-52% higher than that of Adaptive Conjoint Analysis, the Fast Polyhedral approach, and the traditional self-explicated approach, irrespective of whether the part-worths were estimated using classical or hierarchical Bayes estimation. Additionally, the proposed adaptive approach reduces the respondents’ burden by keeping the number of paired comparison questions small without significant loss of predictive validity.
    Date: 2007–11
  3. By: Chiou, Lesley (Occidental College); Muehlegger, Erich (Harvard U)
    Abstract: Differences in excise tax rates across jurisdictions create incentives for consumers to cross the border and purchase in lower-tax jurisdictions. This paper introduces a discrete choice model to examine tax avoidance and state border-crossing in the market for cigarettes. We exploit a rich dataset of consumer location choices and demographics to estimate a consumer’s tradeoff between distance and price when choosing a location to maximize utility. Using the estimates from our location and demand models, we reconsider a recent public policy issue among states and simulate tax avoidance under alternative cigarette excise tax levels.
    Date: 2008
  4. By: D Mayston; J Yang
    Abstract: Against the background of the recent rate of expansion of China's higher education system that has outstripped even China's own high rate of economic growth, the paper examines evidence of the emerging problem of graduate overeducation within China. Based upon a pecking-order model of employment offers and associated ordered probit model, it analyses the empirical factors which determine the incidence of graduate overeducation across China. The extent to which individual students have an incentive to become overeducated compared to a socially optimal level of their education is also examined in the context of a supporting economic model that compares individual and socially optimal levels of investment in education, in the face of labour market demands. The extent of the divergence between individual and socially optimal levels of investment in education, and of the associated levels of graduate overeducation, is found to depend upon how recent major increases in the supply of graduates within China will interact with the future growth rates in job specifications, in demand variables and in resultant graduate wages within China.
    Keywords: Graduate overeducation. higher education policy. Optimal education investment. Economic growth in China
    Date: 2008–08

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