nep-dcm New Economics Papers
on Discrete Choice Models
Issue of 2007‒03‒10
six papers chosen by
Philip Yu
Hong Kong University

  1. Intertemporal Labor Supply Effects of Tax Reforms By Peter Haan
  2. Neighborhood effects, public housing and unemployment in France By Florence Goffette-Nagot; Claire Dujardin
  3. An analysis of crop choice : adapting to climate change in Latin American farms By Seo, Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert
  4. An analysis of livestock choice : adapting to climate change in Latin American farms By Seo, Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert
  5. A Structural Empirical Analysis of Retail Banking Competition: the Case of Hungary By József Molnár; Márton Nagy; Csilla Horváth

  1. By: Peter Haan
    Abstract: In the year 2000, the German government passed the most ambitious tax reform in post-war German history aiming at a significant tax relief for households. One central aim of this tax reform was to improve work incentives and, thereby, foster employment. In this paper, I estimate an intertemporal discrete choice model of female labor supply that allows to analyze the behavioral effects of the tax reform on the labor supply of married and cohabiting women over time. Using the Markov chain property, I analyze the dynamics of labor supply behavior and derive the short- and long-run labor supply effects of the tax reform.
    Keywords: Intertemporal labor supply of married women, tax reform, Panel data, microsimulation
    JEL: C33 H24 H31 J22
    Date: 2007
  2. By: Florence Goffette-Nagot (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - [CNRS : UMR5824] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]); Claire Dujardin (CORE - Center for Operations Research and Econometrics - [Université catholique de Louvain])
    Abstract: This paper is aimed at examining how individual unemployment is influenced both by location in a deprived neighborhood and public housing. Our identification strategy is twofold. First, we estimate a simultaneous probit model of public housing accommodation, type of neighborhood, and unemployment, thus accounting explicitely for correlation of unobservables between the three behaviors. Second, we take advantage of the situation of the public housing sector in France, which allows us to use public housing accommodation as a powerful<br />determinant of neighborhood choices and to use household's demographic characteristics as exclusion restrictions. Our results show that public housing does not have any direct effect on unemployment. However, living within the 35% more deprived neighborhoods does increase the unemployment probability significantly. As expected, the effect of neighborhood substantially decreases when dealing with the endogeneity of neighborhood and when using public housing as a determinant of neighborhood choice.
    Keywords: Neighborhood effects ; public housing ; unemployment ; simultaneous probit models ; simulated maximum likelihood
    Date: 2007–02–28
  3. By: Seo, Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert
    Abstract: The authors explore how Latin American farmers adapt to climate by changing crops. They develop a multinomial choice model of farmer ' s choice of crops. Estimating the mo del across over 2,000 farmers in seven countries, they find that both temperature and precipitation affects the crops that Latin American farmers choose. Farmers choose fruits and vegetables in warmer locations and wheat and potatoes in cooler locations. Farms in wetter locations are more likely to grow rice, fruits, and squash, and in dryer locations maize and potatoes. Global warming will cause Latin American farmers to switch away from wheat and potatoes toward fruits and vegetables. Predictions of the impact of climate change must reflect not only changes in yields or net revenues per crop but also crop switching.
    Keywords: Crops & Crop Management Systems,Climate Change,Rural Poverty Reduction,Agriculture & Farming Systems,Global Environment Facility
    Date: 2007–03–01
  4. By: Seo, Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert
    Abstract: The authors explore how Latin American livestock farmers adapt to climate by switching spe cies. They develop a multinomial choice model of farmer ' s choice of livestock species. Estimating the models across over 1,200 livestock farmers in seven countries, they find that both temperature and precipitation affect the species Latin American farmers choose. The authors then use this model to predict how future climate scenarios would affect species choice. Global warming will cause farmers to switch to beef cattle at the expense of dairy cattle.
    Keywords: Livestock & Animal Husbandry,Climate Change,Wildlife Resources,Peri-Urban Communities,Rural Urban Linkages
    Date: 2007–03–01
  5. By: József Molnár (Bank of Finland); Márton Nagy (Magyar Nemzeti Bank); Csilla Horváth (Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands)
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the degree of competition in the Hungarian household credit and deposit markets. We estimate discrete-choice, multinomial logit deposit service and loan demand functions for each bank and calculate the corresponding price elasticities. Two models of the banking industry are considered: a static, differentiated product Nash-Bertrand oligopoly (as non-collusive benchmark) and a cartel. With estimated marginal costs and observed interest rates we calculate the price-cost margins and compare these to the theoretically implied ones. We find that in our sample period the competition in the Hungarian banking sector is low, i.e. price-cost margins are high.
    Keywords: Demand, discrete choice, product differentiation, banking, market power.
    JEL: G21 L11 L13
    Date: 2007
  6. By: Jairo Núñez; Laura Cuesta
    Abstract: Durante los últimos años, el Estado colombiano ha realizado grandes avances en la construcción de políticas y programas dirigidos a la población más pobre y vulnerable. Una de las grandes innovaciones ha sido el programa Familias en Acción, que consiste en la entrega de transferencias monetarias condicionadas a la participación del hogar en controles de crecimiento y desarrollo, y a la asistencia escolar de los niños de 7 a 17 años de edad. Después de un año y medio de ejecución, la evaluación de impacto del programa encontró resultados positivos en las tasas de asistencia escolar, la proporción de niños inscritos en los programas de crecimiento y desarrollo, y las medidas antropométricas de los niños beneficiarios. Sin embargo, la carencia de un análisis costo-beneficio impide determinar si esta intervención supera otros programas del Estado. Para aumentar en un estudiante la cobertura educativa de jóvenes de 12 a 17 años, se requiere atender a 8 jóvenes, lo que seguramente es más costoso que otros programas del Ministerio de Educación Nacional como Escuela Nueva. Así mismo, aunque este programa está dirigido a las familias más pobres, solo el 40% de los hogares beneficiarios pertenece al nivel 1 del SISBEN. Este estudio presenta la experiencia de Colombia en el diseño y puesta en marcha de una intervención como la que se viene desarrollando con Familias en Acción, sus fortalezas y debilidades, así como las recomendaciones para mejorar su impacto.
    Date: 2006–08–20

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