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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | David-Jan Jansen; Jakob de Haan |
| Abstract: | We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor rule models. During the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union, comments by ECB Executive Board members and high-level Bundesbank policy-makers were more informative than comments by national central bank presidents. We also find that differences of opinion were informative when they concerned the outlook for economic growth. Finally, our results suggest that the ECB used communication especially to signal interest rate increases. |
| Keywords: | central bank communication; interest rate decisions; ECB; Taylor rule; ordered probit models |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2005–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:075&r=dcm |
| By: | Arthur van Soest; Arie Kapteyn; Julie Zissimopoulos |
| Abstract: | Structural models explaining retirement decisions of individuals or households in an inter-temporal setting are typically hard to estimate using data on actual retirement decisions, because choice sets are complicated and uncertain and for a large part unobserved by the researcher. This paper describes an experiment in which both perceived retirement opportunities and preferences for retirement are measured. For the latter, respondents evaluate how attractive they find a number of hypothetical, simplified, retirement trajectories involving early retirement, late retirement, and gradual retirement, each with its own corresponding income path. The questions were fielded in the Dutch CentERpanel. The answers are used to estimate a stylized structural life-cycle model of retirement preferences. The results suggest that, for example, many respondents could be convinced to work part-time after age 65 before retiring completely at age 70 for a reasonable financial compensation. Simulations combining the information on perceived opportunities with estimated preferences also illustrate the importance of employer imposed restrictions on retirement and the scope for increasing labor force participation of the elderly by creating opportunities for gradual retirement. |
| Keywords: | Replacement rates; Ratings; Gradual retirement |
| JEL: | C81 J26 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:081&r=dcm |
| By: | Biel, Anders (Department of Psychology, Göteborg University); Johansson-Stenman, Olof (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Nilsson, Andreas (Department of Psychology, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence suggests that people’s maximum willingness to pay for having a good is often substantially lower than their minimum willingness to accept not having it, and that this discrepancy tends to be especially large when valuing public goods. This paper hypothesizes that differences in emotions (e.g. regret) and moral perceptions can account for much of this discrepancy for public goods. A simple, real-money dichotomous-choice experiment is set up to test these hypotheses, which are largely supported. <p> |
| Keywords: | Willingness to pay; Willingness to accept gap; Endowment effect; Emotions; Ethics; Experiments |
| JEL: | C91 H41 |
| Date: | 2006–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0193&r=dcm |
| By: | Benoit Dostie (HEC Montréal, CIRPÉE, CIRANO and IZA Bonn); Pierre Thomas Léger (HEC Montréal, CIRPÉE, CIRANO) |
| Abstract: | Several papers have tested the empirical validity of the migration models proposed by Borjas (1987) and Borjas, Bronars, and Trejo (1992). However, to our knowledge, none has been able to disentangle the separate impact of observable and unobservable individual characteristics, and their respective returns across different locations, on an individual's decision to migrate. We build a model in which individuals sort, in part, on potential earnings - where earnings across different locations are a function of both observable and unobservable characteristics. We focus on the inter-provincial migration patterns of Canadian physicians. We choose this particular group for several reasons including the fact that they are paid on a fee-for-service basis. Since wage rates are exogenous, earning differentials are driven by differences in productivity. We then estimate a mixed conditional-logit model to determine the effects of individual and destination-specific characteristics (particularly earnings differentials) on physician location decisions. We find, among other things, that high-productivity physicians (based on unobservables) are more likely to migrate to provinces where the productivity premium is greater, while low-productivity physicians are more likely to migrate to areas where the productivity premium is lower. These results are consistent with a modified Borjas model of self-selection in migration based on both unobservables and observables. |
| Keywords: | migration, self-selection, earnings, longitudinal data, productivity |
| JEL: | J24 J61 C23 C35 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1942&r=dcm |
| By: | Milenko Vrtic; Christian Schiller; Dieter Lohse; KW Axhausen |
| Abstract: | The Swiss federal government has asked the IVT, ETH Zürich in collaboration with the TU Dresden and Emch+Berger, Zürich to estimate origin-destination matrices by mode and purpose for the year 2000. The zoning system employing about 3’000 zones of very uneven size required a solution algorithm which is fast, but also able to model generation, distribution and mode choice simultaneously, while addressing the different data availability for traffic within, destined for and passing through the country. The EVA algorithm developed by Lohse (1997) was adapted for this purpose. The key proper-ties of the algorithm are its disaggregate description of demand, its use of appropriate logit-type models for the demand distribution, while maintaining the known marginal distributions of the matrices generated. This last point is of particular importance in a large scale planning applica-tion such as the one at hand. The algorithm calculates trip production and attractions by zone using activity pairs. The 17 ac-tivity pairs distinguished are the combinations of two activities, such as home-work or work-leisure. The relevant daily rates are derived for each of the 17 activity pairs from the 2000 Swiss National Travel Survey (Bundesamt für Statistik and Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung, 2001). The zonal attractivity is defined separately for each trip purpose. In addition to the common variables, such as employment or population, detailed descriptions of education places, shop-ping or leisure facilities, overnight accommodations, shopping centres etc. are employed (see Tschopp, Keller and Axhausen, 2003 for the data). The combined destination and mode choice models estimated for the different traveller types and activity pairs are based on the Swiss National Travel survey (RP data), but incorporates re-sults from a prior SP study on mode and route choice (Vrtic and Axhausen, 2004). The different zone sizes and the different levels of data available required the formulation of new additional models for the transit traffic passing through Switzerland and the traffic originat-ing outside, respectively leaving the country The matching network models for public transport and road traffic were implemented using VISUM 9.0 of PTV AG, Karlsruhe. The timetable based assignment considers all scheduled train services plus the relevant interurban bus services, in particular in rural areas. The paper has three main parts: the first main part derives and describes for the first time the EVA algorithm in English, including the solution method used. The second part summarizes the results of choice model estimation using the generalised cost elasticities of demand by purpose and traveller type. The third part assesses the quality of the results. These assessments are based on two independently derived matrices, which are available for rail-travel from on board - counts and for commuters from the 2000 national census. In addition, we compare the assign-ment results with the available cross section counts. The conclusions discuss computing times, accuracy and issues for further research. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p110&r=dcm |
| By: | Barry Ubbels; Yin-Yen Tseng; Erik T. Verhoef |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of a large stated choice experiment among Dutch commuters facing congestion. The experiment consisted of a fractional factorial design with 15 different attributes, three alternatives were car specific and the other was always public transport. Various model specifications have been estimated on the collected choice data allowing us to analyse choice behaviour of road users and determine their values of time, schedule delay (both late and early) and reliability (or uncertainty). In this paper we present the estimates of the best-fitting discrete choice models and interpret the results. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p202&r=dcm |
| By: | Jasper Willigers; Han Floor; Bert Van Wee |
| Abstract: | With the upcoming implementation of high-speed railway infrastructure in the Netherlands, interest has arisen in the spatial-economic effects this might have. Experiences with high-speed rail outside the Netherlands have shown that effects at a local or regional level can be important, due to relocation of employment within regions and cities. This paper focuses on this issue by presenting the results of discrete choice models for office location choice. Both stated choice data and revealed choice data are used. The discrete location choice models give information on to what extent the introduction of high-speed rail in the Netherlands can change the attractiveness of individual cities within the Randstad area on the one hand and of places within these cities on the other hand. As accessibility is an important concept in this topic, attention is given to the specification of accessibility indicators. Hereby, distinction is made between centrality and connectivity. Centrality refers to the position of a location within the transport network and relative to possible origins and destinations. Potential accessibility indicators based on a spatial interaction model are used to represent centrality. Connectivity refers to how well a location is connected to a transport network. Indicators for connectivity are for example the distance to the nearest railway station or motorway access ramp and also the level-of-service provided, such as the train frequency at a station. Furthermore, the paper focuses on a segmentation of employment that reflects this paper’s purpose of studying the influence of (high-speed) rail on location choices. Whereas accessibility by car is relevant for location choices of all types of office employment, accessibility by rail in general and accessibility by high-speed rail in particular seem important to more distinct groups of office employment. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p308&r=dcm |
| By: | Taede Tillema; Bert Van Wee; Dick Ettema |
| Abstract: | Road pricing policies are, after a cooling down period of a couple of years, again prominently back on the political agenda in the Netherlands. But also in the period of less political interest, research in the field of (road) pricing policies continued in other countries as well as in the Netherlands. Most research literature focuses on the economic and acceptability aspects of pricing policies. The geographical aspects of transport pricing however have received much less attention so far. This paper focuses on possible influences of road pricing policies on residential and work location choice of households. The paper starts with analyzing the importance of transport and location related variables in residential location decisions, when the choice to relocate itself has been made. For this analysis data from a stated choice experiment is used. Choice screens within the experiment consisted of two alternatives. In total, per respondent nine choice screens were shown. Transport related variables within the experiment were commuting travel time, fuel cost and toll cost. The location related variables consisted of the residential environment, the number of bedrooms and the monthly housing costs. Analysis of the results gives insight into the importance of for example toll costs on the final location choice when a decision to relocate itself has already been made. However this type of analysis does not give insight into the number of people who are actually considering changing location when a form of road pricing is introduced. Therefore the second part of the paper continues with analyzing the extent to which people are likely to relocate due to road pricing. The effect of different types of pricing measures and pricing levels on this inclination to relocate are examined. For the analysis, data from a stated preference questionnaire is used. The paper finally concludes with an examination of important explaining variables for moving house or changing job due to road pricing. Some important findings are for example that older people (above 40 years of age), people with a higher income and persons getting a travel cost compensation from their employer are less willing to move due to a pricing measure. People with a higher education level however are more willing to relocate. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p309&r=dcm |
| By: | Wilbert Grevers; Anne Van der Veen |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a unifying framework for spatial and environmental economics, based on equilibrium considerations for population games. The main contribution of this paper consists of introducing a consistent concept for spatial welfare. Following the introduction of estimable locational sorting models for valuation methods in environmental economics, the relationship between the theoretical underpinnings of the hedonic pricing model and the bid rent concept in urban economics is re-examined. This is done along the definition of the ideal general equilibrium willingness to pay (GE-WTP) that is at the heart of most applications of locational sorting models in environmental economics. A GE-WTP should be able to account for the value of non-marginal changes in a spatially explicit distribution of local public goods. Commonly, such a GE-WTP is derived as a Hicksian WTP adjusted for endogenous prices. Endogenous prices are typically enforced by a market clearing condition, often a fixed supply, constraining the relocation of a population in response to the changes in local quality. This paper offers an alternative interpretation of a GE-WTP. It demonstrates how for a discrete choice formulation, a fixed supply generically results in a Nash equilibrium in a population game. Furthermore, it is shown that this Nash equilibrium corresponds exactly to a spatial equilibrium in urban economics. This observation allows for a novel spatially explicit approach to the evaluation of land policy options, combining current cost-benefit practice with the optimization of land use. Finally it is shown, how the GE-WTP can be adjusted for developers' decisions, based on the analogy with urban economic models. It allows this spatial welfare measure to be extended with endogenous, instead of fixed, supply. This makes the concept also suitable for comparing the social welfare implications of entirely different land use patterns. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p386&r=dcm |
| By: | Avigail Ferdman; Dani Shefer; Shlomo Bekhor |
| Abstract: | Light Rail Transit (LRT) has been gaining popularity as a means of decreasing private automobile dependency and thus reducing car pollutants, relieving congestion and enhancing community liveability. LRT is also perceived as an important generator of economic growth, mainly in old urban centers. Through the improvement of accessibility to CBDs (Central Business Districts) planners and decision makers expect to revitalize central cities' vis-a-vis the increasing competition from the growing suburban shopping malls. More specifically, the objective of this paper is to explore the complex relationship between transportation and land use by analyzing the optimal composition of land use around the proposed light rail stations. Density and diversity are the two most important characteristics of urban land use development. We examine changes in land use adjacent to the LRT stations in metropolitan Tel-Aviv, and their impact on the demand for total travel in particular. These changes include hypothetical scenarios of alternative land use compositions, densities and intensities of residential, employment, and commercial land uses. In order to measure the impact of these changes on travel, a demand model is calibrated. The traditional four-step transportation model is retrofitted with alternative land use density and diversity variables. Among these are: residential density, job-population balance etc. As such, the re¬structured model is more sensitive to the different hypothetical land use scenarios and is expected to predict ridership demand changes more accurately. The results have shown that some of the land use variables are extremely important for trip generation trends forecasts, especially trip attraction trends. Furthermore, the simulations of the various land use policies are able to display the spatial reaction of trip rates to land use function, density, degree of mix, and household characteristics. The results of this study could serve to better assess urban transportation ridership demands, especially since they serve as input for mode choice analyses. Moreover, by exploring this subject even further, planners and decision makers will be able to attain a clearer and more comprehensive picture of optimal land use patterns surrounding station areas, and in doing so, improving the quality of life of urban dwellers, commuters and visitors. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p401&r=dcm |
| By: | Makoto Tsukai; Makoto Okumura |
| Abstract: | Multimodal policy between railway and airlines is of importance in providing seamless transportation service to inter-regional passengers. However, it is difficult to make coordination among the railway and airline service suppliers, especially when they are fiercely competing for the share in passenger market in the target OD. Inter-regional transportation in Japan, fierce competitions are observed between Japan Railway companies and airlines, especially after the 1990 fs deregulation of the airline entrance; the number of new air service are parallel to the conventionally profitable railway service. Regardless to railway service improvements such as speed-ups, increase of frequency and special tickets of bargain fares, the number of airline passengers has been increased in the middle to long distant regions, while railway passengers continuously decreased. Such consequence would be brought by the multimodal route which has an airline link as the trunk line, and railway links as the access or egress service, considering inter-regional passenger behaviors. In other words, the improvement of railway service of middle to long distance would simultaneously and inevitably improve the short distant railway service, which can be used as the access line to airport. This phenomenon can be called the spatial externality of railway network. Spatial externality much strongly appears in railway network, comparing to airlines. If the above consideration is valid, inter-regional transportation market would not be efficient without considering the unintended multimodal use. This study purposes to clarify the existence and effects of spatial externality of railway service from investigation of longitudinal change in inter-regional transportation service and demand in Japan. The LOS of multimodal routes are calculated by the k-th shortest path algorithm which gives alternative routes to the shortest. In order to assess the LOS for each OD, the mode choice model is estimated, and passenger utilities of ODs are calculated. The results are aggregated for each distance range of ODs, and compared the LOS improvement measured by estimated utilities with the number of passengers of railway and of airlines. Implications for regional transportation administration are finally made. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p416&r=dcm |
| By: | André De Palma; Nathalie Picard |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of information on risk adverse drivers who maximize their von Neumann and Morgerstern expected utility (rather than minimizing expected travel time). The preferences of the users are described by their utility functions. Beside the (potentially inconsistent) mean variance model used so far in transportation, we consider three other standard utility functions: the mean standard deviation model, and the CARA and CRRA utility functions. We show that maximization of expected utility provides a more general formulation than minimization of expected travel time (the latter case corresponds to the standard Wardrop principle). We illustrate the proposed approach with a simple network which consists in one origin/one destination and two routes in parallel. Total demand is inelastic. Capacity on one route is constant and on the other route it is stochastic, and depends on the states of nature, with two possible values. We assume that all users have the same value of time but that they differ in their risk aversion parameter. Equilibrium travel time then depends on the distribution of risk aversion. We consider two polar information regimes: no information and full information. We study the differential impacts of information according to the level of risk aversion, and compute the social value of information. We introduce a formula to compute the value of information that is the individual willingness to pay for information (or in economic terms, the compensating variation). Moreover, we find that optimal route choice may depend on global factors (and not only on local traffic conditions). This has serious implications on the design of driver information systems. Finally, we study road pricing when users are risk neutral (and minimize the expected travel time) and when users are risk adverse. We compare the level of tolls, as well as the benefits of road pricing with and without taking into account risk aversion. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p423&r=dcm |
| By: | Dick Ettema; Olu Ashiru; John Polak; Fabian Bastin |
| Abstract: | The recent growth of interest in activity-based methods has focused particular attention on travellers’ decision making regarding the timing and duration of their participation in activities. However, to date these two dimensions of activity participation have been largely treated separately. It is clear, however, that in general, the benefit that an individual derives from participating in an activity will depend inter alia both upon the time at which the activity is undertaken and the amount of time devoted to the activity. Moreover, it is also clear that this benefit will also depend on a wide range of other factors such as the quality of the activity opportunities available at particular destinations and the intensity with which activities are undertaken. Since these factors are inherently difficult or impossible to completely characterise or measure via conventional travel or time use data sources, it is likely that such decisions will also be characterised by significant unobserved heterogeneity. Based on earlier theoretical work by the authors, this paper proposes a model for the simultaneous choice of the timing and duration of activities and associated travel and uses data from a stated preference experiment to estimate the parameters of this model. The first section of the paper provides a brief review of the existing literature on activity timing and duration choice. The second section introduces the theoretical approach, which assume that the marginal utility derived from activities encompasses two distinct components; one derived from the duration of activity involvement and the other derived from activity participation at a particular time-of-day. A number of alternative additive and multiplicative specifications are introduced and their properties are explored. The third section briefly describes the stated preference data, which was collected in a survey undertaken in London in which respondents were presented with a number of scenarios in which they were asked to choose between alternative tours involving a single destination activity. The timing and duration both of the destination activity and the associated travel varied across scenarios. The fourth section discusses the empirical specification and estimation of the model and presents the estimation results. This uses an error-components formulation of the mixed multinomial logit model to account both for unobserved heterogeneity in tastes and for heteroskedascity and complex substitution patterns amongst activity alternatives. Particular attention is given to the use of advanced optimisation techniques needed to estimate the non-linear utility function expressing individuals’ timing and duration preferences.The fifth section discusses the significance of the results and their potential application to a number of practical transport planning problems including the prediction of user response to travel demand management policies and accessibility planning. The paper closes with some overall conclusions and a discussion of future research directions. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p439&r=dcm |
| By: | Makoto Okumura; Makoto Tsukai |
| Abstract: | It takes long time and huge amount of money to construct inter-city railway network. Careful demand forecasting and rational service planning are therefore required. However, long ranged demand forecasting is always facing to unintended change of regional population or change of the service level of competing transportation modes such as airline and inter-city express bus. Those changes sometimes resulted in severe decrease of demand for the constructed railway lines and discussion of abolishment of train service occurs. In order to avoid such tragedy, we want to build a robust network plan not vulnerable for the changes in forecasting conditions. This paper discusses the robustness of optimal inter-city railway network structure in Japan against alternative population distributions. Genetic Algorithm is applied to find best mixture of maximum operation speed category and number of daily train service for each link, which maximize the total consumer surplus of inter-city railway passengers. Consumer surplus is assessed by a gravity demand model considering service level along several routes for each OD pair. Travel time calculated by allocated link speed category, allocated train frequency, and estimated fare regressed by travel speed, will be summarized as route service level via ML route choice model parameters. In the GA, we consider a chromosome consists of two parts; speed category of 275 links and relative operation distance of trains in those links. Besides the real distribution of population in 197 Japanese local areas in the year of 1995, we set four other hypothetic population distributions; two of them concentrate in megalopolises like Tokyo, others disperse along geographically remote areas. We first obtain network structures optimized by the GA for each population setting. Speed category allocation will be compared for the five network plans. Secondly, we calculate total consumer surplus of each network plan under the different population settings and discuss the vulnerability of those plans. Thirdly, we optimize train operation plans for different population settings under the given speed category arrangements. The results shows that spatial arrangement of high speed railway service in 1995 keeps optimality for wide range of population settings, if we adjust number of trains according to alternative population distribution. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p497&r=dcm |
| By: | Ninette Pilegaard; Morten Marott Larsen; Jos Van Ommeren |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study how congestion and residential moving behaviour are interrelated using a two-region job search model. We demonstrate that depending on the amount of commuting and residential moving between regions, a congestion tax may lead to both welfare losses and gains. In the analysis of optimal location of households it is often assumed that households may move residence at no costs. The model developed in this paper allows for incomplete information in the labour market combined with residential moving behaviour and positive residential moving costs. We examine welfare consequences of both homogenous and heterogeneous moving costs. Workers choose optimally between interregional commuting and residential moving to live closer to the place of work. This choice affects the external costs of commuting due to congestion. Therefore, road pricing (or congestion taxes) may not only reduce congestion but also increase total residential moving costs in the economy. One of the main consequences is that the road tax does not necessarily increase welfare. In some cases, the assumption of moving costs (homogenous or heterogeneous) has implications for the interpretation of the results. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p520&r=dcm |
| By: | John V. Thomas; Robert Noland |
| Abstract: | Trip-chaining behavior has generally been associated with various demographic characteristics of households and individuals. This includes households with children having more complex activity patterns, or those who are employed needing to conduct activities on the way to and from work because of time constraints. No studies, as yet, have controlled for other factors that might influence trip chaining behaviour, such as levels of urbanization, public transport availability, use of other transport modes, or various other local environmental factors. This paper explores these issues using both the 1995 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey and the 2001 National Household Travel Survey. Both surveys have data on trip chaining behavior that allows multivariate analysis of individual level behavior. Various choice models are estimated, including ordered models that account for the number of chains in a trip. Results for both the 1995 and 2001 surveys are presented to examine potential changes in behavior over time. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p541&r=dcm |
| By: | Antje Mertens; Anette Haas |
| Abstract: | The role of mobility is central to the debate on reducing unemployment. A further question is to what extent a lack of mobility enforces regional disparities. Using a micro data set containing information about two cohorts we analyse the impact of regional unemployment at district level to regional employment duration. As an alternative to the frequently used Logit analysis approach we focus to duration time analyses. We use Cox Regression (Breslow Method for ties) and Piece wise constant models to find out the impact of regional unemployment rate for duration working in a special region. Additionally we could differentiate between voluntary and involuntary mobility. The results of this comparison show a contrary influence of the regional unemployment rate. Our results confirm the lower mobility of woman and that the younger cohort exhibits higher mobility rates. We also compare downward/upward moves (defined as wage losses/gains after mobility) and could not find evidence for influence of regional unemployment rate to wage growth. This yields us to the conclusion that high levels of regional unemployment inhibit mobility because of a lack of vacancies. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p592&r=dcm |
| By: | Veronique Van Acker; Frank Witlox |
| Abstract: | Theories on the reciprocal relationship between land-use and transport address changes in locational decisions and travel behavior of private actors (households and firms) due to alternations in the transport system, respectively land-use system. Although the impact of land-use system on travel behaviour (transport system) has been the subject of much research (for reviews, see, e.g. Handy, 2002; Stead and Marshall, 2001; Crane, 2000; Wegener and Fürst, 1999), there is still no consensus about the strength of this relationship. This may be caused by different types of variables whether or not included in the research. Initially only land-use variables were taken into account, but nowadays socio-economical variables are also incorporated. Still, within ‘homogeneous groups’, there may be attitudes, lifestyles, perceptions, and preferences which can have an impact on land-use and/or travel behaviour. Academic literature on the latter remains scarce and the main focus of the existing behavioural literature is the impact of residential location on travel choices, especially modal choice. However, little work has thus far been done on other dimensions of travel choices (e.g., distance, time) and other location types (e.g., commercial, industrial, recreational). Less is known about the reverse relationship, e.g. the impact of the transport system on location decisions of households and firms (land-use system). A difference in time-scale can be the reason for this. Transformations in land-use occur much slower (years) compared to transformations in travel behaviour (days, weeks, months). In this paper we explore several possibilities to fill in some of the gaps in our knowledge on the land-use/transport system. Understanding the two-way interaction between land-use and travel behaviour involves having (i) data on land-use patterns, socio-economic background of individuals and their attitudes, perceptions and preferences towards land-use and travel; and (ii) a methodology, dealing with potential multiple directions of causality. The first issue can be achieved by combining empirical, revealed and stated preference research. The second methodological question can be solved using structural equation modelling (SEM). This is a modelling technique which can handle a large number of endogenous and exogenous variables. Because of the multiple directions of causality that can be explored, SEM can help us to define the relationship between revealed preference data and stated preference data. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p601&r=dcm |
| By: | Isabel Mota; António Brandão |
| Abstract: | In this essay, we intend to evaluate the importance of R&D (Research and Development) activities for firms' decision about location. For that purpose, we use micro-level data for the Portuguese industrial sector and focus on the location choices made by new starting firms during 1992-2000 within 275 municipalities. We consider two samples: the first one includes the entire manufacturer sector, while the second one restricts for those industrial branches that were R&D intensive. The set of explanatory variables includes a group of technological variables, such as R&D expenditures and human capital stock, as well as other explanatory variables that account for location specific characteristics and that are traditionally stressed by urban and regional theory, such as production costs (labor costs, land costs and taxes), demand indicators and agglomeration economies (urbanization and localization economies). The model is based on the random utility maximization framework but proceeds through a Poisson regression model for panel data, due to its equivalence with the conditional logit model. Through the estimation of the model, we were able to conclude that for the entire manufacturer sector, the main determinants for location decisions were the labor and land costs and the localization and urbanization economies. However, when considering the R&D intensive sample, those traditional location determinants lose importance, whilst the technological variables, such as the R&D expenditures, become relevant. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p612&r=dcm |
| By: | Christy Collins; Arianne De Blaeij |
| Abstract: | Data collected over recent years indicates that there has been an increase in the average distance of trips made, in the Netherlands (e.g. in 1985 the average trip made was 8.7 km, in 2000 the average trip length was 10.6 km (Harms, 2003)). This paper uses a multi-level approach to look at the micro and macro level factors that affect the travel behaviour of individuals for commuting and leisure in the Netherlands over the last 10 years. A strong influence on the travel behaviour of an individual comes from the context of the household they belong to, the household operates with the context of the residential area in which they live, and all our behaviour is affected by our temporal location. The behaviour of individuals can be considered as dependent on context, and these contextual influences can be envisaged as nested. The multi-level approach allows us to simultaneously consider the impact of individual factors (such as gender), household factors (such as household income), and municipality level factors (such as local population density) and at the same time look at trends across time in commuting and leisure travel behaviour. The advantage of the multi-level approach is that it allows a wholistic approach, where not only aggregate or individual data is used to explain travel behaviour but both levels’ explanatory contributions are included in analyses conducted. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p615&r=dcm |
| By: | Berry Blijie |
| Abstract: | Transport in general, and accessibility of people, jobs and services in particular, is assumed to have an important impact on the residential choice behavior of households. After all, the amount of activities that can be deployed by the household members, whether labor, leisure or socially correlated, is determined by the accessibility of a location. The past decades, residential location choice of households has been subject of study of many researches. Nevertheless, the relation between accessibility and residential choice has shown to be hard to verify empirically. Such (empirical) knowledge, however, can help address many of the problems that urban regions are facing nowadays, like the (re-) location of residential areas and jobs, the planning of new infrastructure and predicting the amount of traffic generated by commuting and leisure activities. The first part of this paper gives an overview of the literature on residential choice behavior, with an emphasis on research that studied the relation with accessibility. Next, the results of a discrete choice model for the residential choice behavior of households will be presented. The model is estimated on the National Housing Survey, in which over 75 thousand Dutch households were inquired on their current and previous housing situation. Different aspects of the residential choice decision are incorporated in the model, like the dwelling type, the location of the dwelling and the characteristics of the household, all in relation with the influence of accessibility. The results show that individual accessibility measures, like migration distance, commuting distance and access to public transport for households without a car, have more impact than the often used general measures like the amount of jobs within 30 minutes travel time, which is apparently the same for all inhabitants in a region. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p626&r=dcm |
| By: | José Alberto Bayo-Moriones; Gilberto Carvalho-Vasconcelos; Fernando Lera-López |
| Abstract: | Information and Communication Technologies investments have drastically modified the competitive markets due to the impact on firm performance and productivity. This paper aims to analyse the differences between ICT adopter firms and non-adopter firms. OLS regressions and ordered logit models provide the methodological approach. From data based on a questionnaire survey to 327 Spanish firms in 2002, the empirical results indicate the essential role played by some variables in the ICT adoption. The results confirm, for example, the influence of variables such as firm size. The role of human capital and competitive strategies based on product and service quality are relevant in ICT adoption. The paper is organised as follows. First, the section 1 introduces the paper. The section 2 provides the establishment and explanation of the theoretical hypotheses. This section is followed in the section 3 by the methodology adopted in this study, including both the model and the data sources employed in the estimations. Some basic statistics and the results of the model estimations are presented and interpreted in the penultimate section, before concluding the paper with some remarks on the findings and important implications in the ICT adoption |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p645&r=dcm |
| By: | Stephane Hess |
| Abstract: | The analysis of air-passengers’ choices of departure airport in multi-airport regions is a crucial component of transportation planning in many large metropolitan areas, and has been the topic of an increasing number of studies over recent years. In this paper, we advance the state of the art of modelling in this area of research by making use of a Cross-Nested Logit (CNL) structure that allows for the joint representation of inter-alternative correlation along the three choice dimensions of airport, airline and access-mode. The analysis uses data collected in the greater London area, which arguably has the highest levels of inter-airport competition of any multi-airport region; the authors of this paper are not aware of any previous effort to jointly analyse the choice of airport, airline and access-mode in this area. The results of the analysis reveal significant influences on passenger behaviour by access-time, access-cost, flight-frequency and flight-time. A structural comparison of the different models shows that the cross-nested structure offers significant improvements over simple Nested Logit (NL) models, which in turn outperform the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model used as the base model. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p736&r=dcm |
| By: | Mogens Fosgerau |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a semiparametric methodology for the evaluation of the distribution of the value of travel time savings (VTTS) from binary choice data. Fosgerau (2004) deals with the case of just one time component. This paper extends to the case of several time components. The methodology is applied to a recent large dataset of about 2200 car drivers who undertook a series of stated choice experiments. The VTTS is a fundamental concept in transport economics, being the main yardstick against which transport investments are measured. However, the methodology presented is generally applicable to evaluation of willingness to pay from binary choice data. Current standard-of-practice methodology applies a mixing distribution to a binary choice model in order to take account of individual heterogeneity. While this is definitely progress, there remains the problem of deciding which mixing distribution to apply. This problem is avoided here by using a nonparametric distribution. For prediction of choices, the choice of mixing distribution may matter less but it is absolutely crucial for evaluating willingness to pay. Even so, it is rare to see a justification for the choice of mixing distribution. The paper tests a range of parametric distributions against the semiparametric alternative. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p77&r=dcm |
| By: | John Stillwell |
| Abstract: | Population migration involves the relocation of individuals, households or moving groups between geographical locations. Aggregate spatial patterns of movement reflect complex combinations of motivation that influence migration behaviour and determine destination choice. Consequently there is a huge literature on modelling different types of migration at various spatial scales. This paper, which originates from a study for EUROSTAT to find a generally applicable migration model, endeavours to review the state of the art by exploiting the distinction between explanatory and projection models. Whilst the review inevitably lacks comprehensiveness, it demonstrates the difference between mathematical and statistical approaches, highlights a recent two-stage model developed for use in a policy context in the UK, and contrasts these methods with models developed in the context of multi-state demography and used for migration projection in the European Union. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p770&r=dcm |
| By: | Andrew Daly; James Fox; Jan Gerrit Tuinenga |
| Abstract: | For many cities, regions and countries, large-scale model systems have been developed to support the development of transport policy. These models are intended to predict the traffic flows that are likely to result from assumed exogenous developments and transport policies affecting people and businesses in the relevant area. The accuracy of the model is crucial to determining the quality of the information that can be extracted as input to the planning and policy analysis process. A frequent approach to modelling, which can substantially enhance the accuracy of the model, is to formulate the model as predicting changes relative to a base-year situation. Often, base-year traffic flows can be observed rather accurately and the restriction of the model to predicting differences reduces the scope for errors in the modelling – whether they be caused by errors in the model itself or in the inputs to the model – to influence the outputs. Such approaches are called ‘pivot point’ methods, or sometimes incremental models. The approaches have proved themselves beneficial in practical planning situations and now form part of the recommended ‘VaDMA’ (Variable Demand Modelling Advice) guidelines issued by the UK Department for Transport. While the principle of the pivot point is clear, the implementation of the principle in practical model systems can be done in a number of ways and the choice between these can have substantial influence on the model forecasts. In particular modellers need to consider: 1.whether the change predicted by the model should be expressed as an absolute difference or a proportional ratio, or whether a mixed approach is necessary; 2.how to deal with apparently growth in ‘green-field’ situations when applying these approaches; 3,at what level in the model should the pivoting apply, i.e. at the level of mode choice, destination choice, overall travel frequency or combinations of these; 4,whether the pivoting is best undertaken as an operation conducted on a ‘base matrix’ or the model is constructed so that it automatically reproduces the base year situation with base year inputs. The paper reviews the alternative approaches to each of these issues, discussing current practice and attempting to establish the basis on which alternative approaches might be established; in particular, whether pivoting is treated as a correction to a model which is in principle correctly specified but incorporates some error, perhaps from faulty data, or as a partial replacement for a model that handles at best part of the situation. These views of the pivoting lead to different procedures. It goes on to present and justify the approach that the authors have found useful in a number of large-scale modelling studies in The Netherlands, the United Kingdom and elsewhere, pointing out the problems that have led to the calculations that are recommended. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p784&r=dcm |
| By: | Margaret Walls; Peter Nelson; Elena Safirova |
| Abstract: | In 1999 US Congress passed the National Air Quality and Telecommuting Act. This Act established pilot telecommuting programs (Ecommute) in five major US metropolitan areas with the express purpose of studying the feasibility of addressing air quality concerns through telecommuting. The major goal of the Ecommute program was to examine whether a particular type of economic incentive, tradable emissions credits from telecommuting, represents a viable strategy for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and improving air quality. Under the Ecommute program, companies could generate emissions credits by reducing the VMT of their workforce through telework programs. They would then be able to sell the credits to firms that needed the reductions to comply with air quality regulations. The paper provides analysis of the results of Ecommute program. First, we establish some context for evaluating whether the envisioned trading scheme represents a feasible approach to reducing mobile source emissions and promoting telecommuting and review the limited experience with mobile source emissions trading programs. We find that from a regulatory perspective, the most substantial drawback to such a program is its questionable environmental integrity, resulting from difficulties in designing a sufficiently rigorous quantification protocols to accurately measure the emissions reductions from telecommuting. And perhaps more importantly, such a program is not likely to be cost-effective since the emissions reductions from a single telecommuter are very small. The paper also presents the first analysis of data collected from the Ecommute program. Using two-and-one-half years of data, we look at telecommuting frequency, mode choice, and emissions reductions as well as at reporting behavior and dropout rates. Finally, we use the program's emissions reductions findings to calculate how much telecommuting would be needed to reach an annual volatile organic compounds emission reduction target in each city. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p801&r=dcm |
| By: | Juan Luis Nicolau (Universidad de Alicante) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study consists of proposing a sequential and hierarchical decision-making process of tourists divided into four stages: 1) going on holiday (or not); 2) choosing a national of international trip; 3) choosing a specific geographical area; and 4) choosing a type of trip –multidestination vs. single-destination- on this area. This analysis allows us to examine the sundry stages that a tourist follows until s/he chooses a type of trip on a destination, as well as to observe the determining factor in each stage. The empirical application is carried out on a sample of 3,781 individuals, by estimating a Random Parameter Logit Model by applying Bayesian procedures. The results obtained reveal a nested non-independent character of the aforementioned decisions, which confirms the proposed four-stage sequential and hierarchical decisionmaking process. El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en proponer un proceso de decisión secuencial y jerárquico que siguen los turistas vacacionales en cuatro etapas: 1) salir (o no) de vacaciones; 2) elección de un viaje nacional vs. internacional; 3) elección de determinadas áreas geográficas; y 4) elección de la modalidad del viaje -multidestino o de destino fijo- en estas áreas. Este análisis permite examinar las distintas fases que sigue un turista hasta seleccionar una determinada modalidad de viaje en un zona geográfica concreta, así como observar los factores que influyen en cada etapa. La aplicación empírica se realiza sobre una muestra de 3.781 individuos, y estima, mediante procedimientos bayesianos, un Modelo Logit de Coeficientes Aleatorios. Los resultados obtenidos revelan el carácter anidado y no independiente de las decisiones anteriores, lo que confirma el proceso secuencial y jerárquico propuesto. |
| Keywords: | Decisiones anidadas, modelización estocástica, marketing turístico Nested decisions, stochastic modelling, tourism marketing |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2005-17&r=dcm |