nep-dcm New Economics Papers
on Discrete Choice Models
Issue of 2005‒12‒01
eight papers chosen by
Philip Yu
Hong Kong University

  1. Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models By Susumu Imai; Neelam Jain
  3. Individuals’ opinion on agricultural multifunctionality performance By Esperanza Vera-Toscano; José A. Gómez-Limón; Eduardo Moyano Estrada; Fernando Garrido Fernández
  4. Health Determinants in Urban China By Zhong Zhao
  5. Controlling starting-point bias in double-bounded contingent valuation surveys. By Emmanuel Flachaire; Guillaume Hollard
  6. Economic Outcomes and the Decision to Vote: The Effect of Randomized School Admissions on Voter Participation By Justine S. Hastings; Thomas J. Kane; Douglas O. Staiger; Jeffrey M. Weinstein
  7. Parental Preferences and School Competition: Evidence from a Public School Choice Program By Justine S. Hastings; Thomas J. Kane; Douglas O. Staiger
  8. Prices, Production, and Inventories Over the Automotive Model Year By George Hall; Adam Copeland; Wendy Dunn

  1. By: Susumu Imai; Neelam Jain (Economics Northern Illinois University)
    Keywords: Structural estimation, Dynamic programming, MCMC
    Date: 2005
  2. By: Rosemarie Bröker Bone
    Abstract: The international financial crises of the 1990s rose doubts on the usefulness of sovereign ratings. The present paper has two aims: identify whether sovereign ratings can be predicted using a small set of macroeconomic fundamentals; and test whether sovereign spreads can be predicted by sovereign ratings and/or fundamentals. In the first case, a good adjustment of an ordered logit model can be obtained using the following indicators: Debt/Exports, Public Sector Net Debt, Gov´t Deficit and Current Account. In the second case, when fundamentals (mostly public sector financial conditions) are included, sovereign ratings do not help predict sovereign spreads.
    JEL: E66 G14
    Date: 2005
  3. By: Esperanza Vera-Toscano; José A. Gómez-Limón; Eduardo Moyano Estrada; Fernando Garrido Fernández
    Abstract: This paper aims to contribute further insights into the valuation individuals make of agriculture performance taking into account its multifunctional feature. Using data from the 2003 Survey on Individuals’ Opinion on Rurality and Agriculture in Andalucía (Agrobarometre 2003) an ordered probit model is applied to explore the effect of regional characteristics and individual preferences on this issue after accounting for personal heterogeneity. Results show how individuals’ perceptions about this sector performance are site-specific (depending on the surrounding farming systems) and are also based on their particular preferences (individuals’ ranking of multifunctional agriculture attributes). The research further highlights those functions developed by agricultural sector which do not fully satisfy individuals’ expectations. Overall, it provides a useful empirical tool for policy-makers concerned on improving satisfaction with the perception of the multifunctionality of the agricultural sector.
    Keywords: Agricultural multifunctionality, agricultural policies, attitudes and perceptions, regional differences, Ordered Probit.
    Date: 2005
  4. By: Zhong Zhao (IZA Bonn and CCER, Peking University)
    Abstract: This paper identifies health determinants in urban China applying Grossman model. Using wave of China Health and Nutrition Survey in 2000, we find that education has important positive effect on health, and cost of health care services has significantly negative impact. However, effects of wage rate and household income are insignificant. We also find that region is an important determinant of health. The body weight is also important, but unlike finding in developed countries, under-weight instead of over-weight is a better predictor for poor health. Our results suggest that male has better health than female does, and married couple has better health in urban China.
    Keywords: self-reported health status, Grossman model, ordered probit, China
    JEL: I12 J24 D12
    Date: 2005–11
  5. By: Emmanuel Flachaire (EUREQua); Guillaume Hollard (OEP - UniversitŽ de Marne-la-VallŽe)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study starting point bias in double-bounded contingent valuation surveys. This phenomenon arises in applications that use multiple valuation questions. Indeed, response to follow-up valuation questions may be influenced by the bid proposed in the initial valuation question. Previous researches have been conducted in order to control for such an effect. However, they find that efficiency gains are lost when we control for undesirable response effects, relative to a single dichotomous choice question. Contrary to these results, we propose a way to control for starting point bias in double-bounded questions with gains in efficiency.
    Keywords: Starting-point bias, contingent valuation.
    JEL: Q26 C81 C93
    Date: 2005–05
  6. By: Justine S. Hastings; Thomas J. Kane; Douglas O. Staiger; Jeffrey M. Weinstein
    Abstract: We provide empirical evidence on the determinants of voter turnout using the random assignment of economic outcomes to potential voters generated by a school choice lottery. This is the first paper to use random assignment of real outcomes resulting from a policy experiment to understand the factors that influence voter turnout. We show that school lottery losers are significantly more likely to vote in the ensuing school board election than lottery winners. The asymmetric effect increases with income and past election participation. The results support a model of 'expressive' voting where negative economic outcomes increase the probability of voting. Such results may account for loss minimizing behavior by public officials, particularly for voters in middle and higher income neighborhoods.
    JEL: D72 I28
    Date: 2005–11
  7. By: Justine S. Hastings; Thomas J. Kane; Douglas O. Staiger
    Abstract: This paper uses data from the implementation of a district-wide public school choice plan in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina to estimate preferences for school characteristics and examine their implications for the local educational market. We use parental rankings of their top three choices of schools matched with student demographic and test score data to estimate a mixed-logit discrete choice demand model for schools. We find that parents value proximity highly and the preference attached to a school's mean test score increases with student's income and own academic ability. We also find considerable heterogeneity in preferences even after controlling for income, academic achievement and race, with strong negative correlations between preferences for academics and school proximity. Simulations of parental responses to test score improvements at a school suggest that the demand response at high-performing schools would be larger than the response at low-performing schools, leading to disparate demand-side pressure to improve performance under school choice.
    JEL: I0 I20 I28
    Date: 2005–11
  8. By: George Hall (Department of Economics Yale University); Adam Copeland; Wendy Dunn
    Keywords: dynamic pricing, discrete choice demand estimation, dynamic programming, revenue management
    JEL: L11 L62
    Date: 2005

This nep-dcm issue is ©2005 by Philip Yu. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.