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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Russia's response to sweeping Western sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine illustrates how logistical constraints can be transformed into instruments of geopolitical power. Sanctions have reshaped the corridors, hubs, and alternative networks mobilized by Moscow to maintain the continuity of strategic flows despite increasing isolation. Routes through Central Asia, expanding hubs in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the Arctic Northern Sea Route, operate as vectors of State resilience, enabling the circumvention of external pressure while reinforcing territorial and political ambitions. In parallel, gray markets, informal intermediaries, and an expanding "shadow fleet" sustain energy exports and industrial activity, yet generate structural vulnerabilities linked to opacity, safety risks, and dependence on opportunistic actors. This dynamic raises a core research question: how do Western sanctions reconfigure Russia's logistics architecture, and to what extent do adaptive mechanisms-across formal, informal, and illicit channels-produce both resilience and systemic fragility within global supply chains? The article contends that Russia's adjustments do not merely mitigate the effects of sanctions but actively reshape global trade patterns. By combining established corridors with shadow networks, Moscow secures short-term autonomy while accumulating long-term risks, demonstrating that logistics has become a central arena of contemporary geopolitical competition. |
| Keywords: | geopolitics, gray markets, logistics, resilience, Russia, sanctions, shadow fleet, supply chains |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05511589 |
| By: | Bobojanov, Shakhrukh; Ilyosov, Imron |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of access to bank financing for enterprises in Uzbekistan, addressing both the decision to apply for credit and the probability of approval conditional on applying. Using World Bank Enterprise Survey data (n=1, 008 enterprises), we employ a twostage analytical framework: binary logit regression models examine factors associated with having an existing loan, and Heckman probit selection models jointly estimate the loan application decision and approval probability, accounting for potential selection bias. The study reveals severe credit rationing in Uzbekistan, with only 13.3% of enterprises holding bank loans and 10.1% applying for new credit. The most striking finding is the dominant effect of existing banking relationships: enterprises with current loans achieve 87.0% approval rates compared to 41.7% for first-time applicants. The Heckman outcome equation confirms this relationship banking effect, representing approximately 30-35 percentage point higher approval probability. Medium-sized enterprises enjoy substantial advantages in both application propensity and approval probability. Export activity and checking account ownership significantly enhance credit access. Contrary to international evidence, female-managed enterprises show positive approval coefficients, though statistical significance is marginal. The highly significant selection parameter confirms substantial selection bias, validating the Heckman approach. |
| Keywords: | SME financing, Credit access, Heckman selection model, Relationship banking, financial inclusion, Transition economies, Uzbekistan |
| JEL: | G21 G32 O16 P34 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127588 |