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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Şar, Edgar |
| Abstract: | Nearly a year after its formation, the Nation Alliance, consisting of six opposition parties ("Table of Six"), finally started to act like a full-fledged electoral alliance against the ruling bloc under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The six opposition leaders have long been criticised for failing to take concrete steps towards embodying a viable political alternative to the People's Alliance of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) since they publicly signed the joint manifesto for Turkey's transition into the "Strengthened Parliamentary System" in February 2022. Although the alliance has yet to announce its joint presidential candidate, it has manifested an unprecedentedly comprehensive joint platform in nine policy areas, including the rule of law, public administration, social policy, economy, and foreign policy. The 200-page joint document provides a comprehensive overview of what changes Turkey can be expected to go through in the short and medium terms should the Nation Alliance manage to defeat President Erdoğan's ruling bloc in the upcoming elections, which will probably take place on 14 May 2023. Even though it would not immediately offer a solution to various issues in Turkey-EU relations, a possible opposition victory could bring bilateral relations back to an institutional framework, whereby both parties can cooperate in a productive way to work out their problems and focus on common interests. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, elections, Nation Alliance, "Table of Six", Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Justice and Development Party (AKP), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), European Union (EU) |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:72023 |
| By: | Vulović, Marina |
| Abstract: | Even though the six Western Balkan countries (WB6) have close political ties with the EU, their alignment with the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) has increasingly come into focus since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. The EU should take a differentiated view of the WB6's political and security cooperation with external actors such as Russia, China and Turkey. Within the WB6, the two "outliers" of Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina's Republika Srpska use their foreign and security relations with Russia to achieve their own political goals. While Serbia seeks support for its Kosovo policy, Republika Srpska is trying to get backing for its separatist tendencies. The WB6 are not expected to end their cooperation with the aforementioned external actors in the near future. Nonetheless, in today's shifting geopolitical arena, the EU must set priorities that bind the WB6's outliers to the CFSP. |
| Keywords: | Western Balkan, EU, Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), Russia, China, Turkey, Republika Srpska, NATO, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:82023 |
| By: | Khan, Muhammad Tufail; Imran, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | This study delves into the intricate relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and crucial variables in Europe and Central Asia from 1990-2021. By examining the impact of renewable energy, industry value added, foreign direct investment (FDI), gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and population density on CO2 emissions using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, the study uncovers intriguing findings. The study reveals a significant negative correlation between linear per capita income and CO2 emissions in both the short and long run. Moreover, it confirms the inverted N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between the variables. The study further highlights the unfavorable impact of renewable energy and industry value added on CO2 emissions, pointing to the fact that their growth increases CO2 emissions. On the other hand, population density is found to be a vital factor in reducing CO2 emissions. FDI is identified to have a negative and insignificant impact on CO2 emissions, suggesting that it may not be an effective tool for reducing carbon emissions in the region. The insights from this study have significant implications for policymakers in the region to design and implement effective strategies to reduce CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | Carbon emissions; Economic growth; Renewable energy; FDI inflows; Industry value added, Population density; ARDL estimator. |
| JEL: | C32 |
| Date: | 2023–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116484 |
| By: | Abduvaliev, Mubnzhon |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of remittances on economic growth in Central Asian countries during the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a panel data set on economic growth in five Central Asian Republics which were former members of the Soviet Union. We found that a 1% decline in remittance inflow would result in a 0.05% to 0.06% decrease in the average per capita GDP of Central Asian country's economies. We also found that a 1% decrease in the Russian economy, from which most remittances are sent, would reduce the average per capita GDP of Central Asian countries by 0.06%. |
| Keywords: | Central Asian countries, COVID-19, remittances, economic growth, Russian spillover effect |
| JEL: | F22 F23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116107 |
| By: | Mostafa R. Sarkandiz |
| Abstract: | Throughout the past year, Turkey's central bank policy to decrease the nominal interest rate has caused episodes of severe fluctuations in Turkish lira exchange rates. According to these conditions, the daily return of the USD/TRY have attracted the risk-taker investors' attention. Therefore, the uncertainty about the rates has pushed algorithmic traders toward finding the best forecasting model. While there is a growing tendency to employ sophisticated models to forecast financial time series, in most cases, simple models can provide more precise forecasts. To examine that claim, present study has utilized several models to predict daily exchange rates for a short horizon. Interestingly, the simple exponential smoothing model outperformed all other alternatives. Besides, in contrast to the initial inferences, the time series neither had structural break nor exhibited signs of the ARCH and leverage effects. Despite that behavior, there was undeniable evidence of a long-memory trend. That means the series tends to keep a movement, at least for a short period. Finally, the study concluded the simple models provide better forecasts for exchange rates than the complicated approaches. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2302.08897 |