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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Till Raphael Sanger (Princeton University); Ethan B. Kapstein (Princeton University); Ronnie Sircar (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 led to the withdrawal of much of the West’s massive financial support to that country. The consequences are widespread for the government and its people, and news reports suggest that the economy is in "collapse." In this article, we go beyond qualitative and survey-based measures of the Afghan economy by using nightlights as a proxy measure for changes in GDP. Utilizing a synthetic control based on provinces of other countries in the region, we find that the Taliban takeover caused a shift from a positive growth trajectory towards a deep recession. Specifically, we estimate that Afghanistan’s GDP has likely fallen by about 15 percent since mid-2021, a shock comparable to the annual economic downturn of the United States during the peak of the Great Depression. |
| Keywords: | Afghanistan |
| JEL: | D74 O11 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:34 |
| By: | Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM)) |
| Abstract: | The Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM), a non-profit think tank based in Ankara, has celebrated its 14th anniversary on 2 January 2023. While the effectiveness of Türkiye's think tanks began to increase, the world community went through severe crises. AViM has sought to illustrate the negative impacts of a Eurocentric approach to regional politics that claims to uphold universal values, but is in truth a power projection tool for Western European (and also North American) countries. It continues to operate with limited domestic contributions and modest budget, and receives no contributions from international private funds or foreign foundations. |
| Date: | 2023–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h5pgm |
| By: | Alexander Knobel (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Yuriy Zaytsev (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Kniaz Bagdasaryan (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Marina Baeva (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Vladimir Sedalishchev (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Maria Kazaryan (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Dmitriy Kuznetsov (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Diana Mirakyan (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Nikita Toropov (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The CIS countries, or more broadly the former republics of the USSR, are effectively making a choice between European (EU) and Eurasian (EAEU) integration, which leads to certain benefits and risks for all CIS+ countries (including Ukraine and Georgia), especially for Russia. The cases of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are of primary interest. Termination of trade and economic cooperation, disruption of value chains, etc. entail a serious threat to industrial development for Russian industries and individual enterprises. Crisis phenomena such as the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, only exacerbate these trends. Great Britain’s departure from the EU (Brexit) at the end of January 2020 is also of research interest. The topics of the post-Soviet countries and their trade and economic cooperation with different countries have been studied by various authors since the collapse of the USSR. In the past ten years, there has been an increase in the activity of studying these problems, in connection with the development of the European Neighborhood Policy on the one hand and Eurasian integration on the other. Research by foreign and domestic authors can be distinguished into the following groups: 1) Analysis, including quantitative analysis, of various integration scenarios for the CIS+ countries. 2) The confrontation between European and Eurasian integrations, as well as the problems of the EAEU. 3) Problems of cooperation between Russia and the post-Soviet countries, including at the level of individual enterprises. However, the issue of assessing the risks and possible consequences at the enterprise level for the EAEU countries from the implementation of the agreements of the CIS member states remains insufficiently studied, especially taking into account the participation in value chains and the importance of industrial recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, etc. |
| Keywords: | trade and economic relations, regional trade agreements (RTA), CIS, EAEU, post-Soviet space |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022033 |