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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2023‒02‒06
six papers chosen by |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2022–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/368&r= |
| By: | Ali Bayar (EcoMod); Dizem Ertac Varoglu (EcoMod and Near East University) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates environmental and energy policies that Turkey needs to adopt on its way to a sustainable development path. A multi-sectoral CGE model is developed to analyze the effects of several environmental and energy policy scenarios available for the Turkish economy to attain a low-carbon society with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. Domestic energy demand has significantly increased in Turkey over the past decades, and this has put a lot of pressure on policymakers as the economy greatly depends on imports of natural gas and oil as far as current energy consumption is concerned. The CGE model used in this study is based on an energy-disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), constructed in previous work by the authors. The energy-disaggregated SAM serves as the benchmark database and the high disaggregation of the energy commodities and the electricity sector to include 8 different types of power generating sectors (5 of which are renewable energy sources) enables electric power substitution in the model. The energy-disaggregated SAM is further linked with satellite accounts which include data on derived energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The macroeconomic and environmental impacts of three distinct sets of scenarios are analyzed with respect to the baseline scenario. The first scenario simulates a 30% increase in energy efficiency in the production sectors and the residential sector and evidence is found for reaching the 21% GHG mitigation target set in Turkey’s pledge for Paris Agreement compliance by 2030. The second set of scenarios is the inclusion of a medium and high-level carbon tax rates for coal, oil and natural gas. The carbon tax scenarios produce significant effects on both emission reduction targets and substituting fossil fuel technologies with cleaner energy technologies. The third scenario estimates the effects of changes in world prices of energy on the Turkish economy. A 20% increase in world energy prices, i.e. oil, natural gas, and coal, induces substantial changes in the breakdown of TPES and the power-generating sector and puts a lot of pressure on the current account deficit of the country. A carbon tax policy proves to be the most viable scenario which leads to reduced energy intensities in all sectors, a 21% GHG emissions abatement, and a transformation of the energy sector towards having a low-carbon content along with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. |
| Date: | 2022–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1622&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Inflation has surged to 18 percent while growth is projected to slow to 2.7 percent this year. High oil prices have strengthened fiscal and external buffers, while the revised budget increased public spending by 2½ percentage points of GDP to support activity. Subsidiaries of sanctioned Russian banks have exited the domestic market and regulatory compliance is being enhanced to avoid secondary sanctions. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, as adverse global conditions could lower oil prices and raise borrowing costs, while oil exports through Russian territory remain a major source of vulnerability. Accelerated economic diversification and private sector development are needed to attain sustainable and inclusive growth. |
| Date: | 2022–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/367&r= |
| By: | Nikita Brunner (Department of Economics, University of Lausanne); Alexander Mihailov |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates empirically in a robust way the effect of a radical religious rule, namely the Taliban control in most of the Afghan provinces between 1996 and 2001, on human capital accumulation. Human capital is proxied by three standard educational attainment variables, which are considered separately for women and men, as the Taliban rule particularly banned girls from schools after the age of 8 years. We use data for all provinces of Afghanistan, where two were not under Taliban rule in 1996-2001, and apply a difference-in-differences methodology, followed by a technique akin to an event study that goes deeper into some refinements. Our key contribution is to uncover that the negative human capital accumulation effect is mostly generated in the early childhood of women, and -- less so -- men: more precisely, at the start of schooling. Those girls who missed out on the chance of beginning education around the age of turning 6 years because of the Taliban ban were considerably disadvantaged in the long run. We quantify this ``scarring'' damage to be of the order of nearly 50% reduction in the mean value of their years of schooling, literacy probability and primary school completion probability, compared to women in the control provinces that were not under Taliban rule in 1996-2001. The policy relevance of our results is huge and immediate, in Afghanistan more directly where the Taliban returned to power in August 2021, forbid education of girls above sixth grade in March 2022 and banned women from all universities in December 2022, but also in many countries where radical religious doctrines still deprive many millions of children of their basic human right to education and, hence, better career and life prospects. |
| Keywords: | radical religious rule, Taliban control in Afghanistan (1996-2001), subjugation of women, human capital accumulation, primary schooling, educational attainment |
| JEL: | J16 I2 Z12 D1 |
| Date: | 2023–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2023-01&r= |
| By: | Prema-chandra Athukorala; Hal Hill |
| Abstract: | This paper examines trade and commercial policy in Kyrgyzstan in the context of that country’s distinctive historical and geographical characteristics, drawing on the World Trade Organisation’s latest Trade Policy Review. A former Soviet republic, it is a geographically isolated, effectively a ‘double-landlocked’, transition economy. The country was an early liberalizer, both economically and politically, among the former Soviet republics, and it is now a broadly open economy. After a catastrophic economic decline in the immediate transition era it also achieved macroeconomic stabilization relatively quickly. However the growth dividend from these major policy reforms has been modest, and the country has become one of the most remittance-dependent economies in the world. While its geographical handicaps are immutable, we argue that key explanations for the slow economic growth are the limited ‘behind-the-border’ reforms, the dualistic economic structure, and misdirected fiscal allocations. We also draw out some of the broader implications for trade policy reform in other transition economies. |
| Keywords: | Kyrgyzstan, landlocked, transition economy, behind-the-border reform |
| JEL: | F13 O53 P27 P33 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2023-02&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | In response to a request from the National Bank of Georgia (NBG), the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a Technical Assistance (TA) mission between March 17 and April 20, 2022, which sought to support the operationalization of the bank recovery and resolution framework, building on recommendations from the 2021 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for Georgia. In collaboration with the authorities, the mission identified several priority actions, including (i) reinforcing the NBG’s internal procedures for reviewing banks’ recovery plans; (ii) strengthening its resolution function and developing playbooks for the main resolution tools; (iii) clarifying the current crisis management escalation process; (iv) revising the credit hierarchy; (vi) introducing bank-specific targets for loss-absorbing capacity; (vii) performing a stock taking of contractual clauses in banks’ current subordinated and senior debt issuances; and (viii) undertaking further efforts to advance resolution planning. |
| Date: | 2023–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/004&r= |