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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2023‒01‒16
sixteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Demirci, Murat (Koc University); Foster, Andrew (Brown University); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines disparities in health and nutrition among native and Syrian-refugee children in Turkey. With a view toward understanding the need for targeted programs addressing child well-being among the refugee population, we analyze, in particular, the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS). The TDHS is one of few data sets providing representative data on health and nutrition for a large refugee and native population. We find no evidence of a difference in infant or child mortality between refugee children born in Turkey and native children. However, refugee infants born in Turkey have lower birthweight and ageadjusted weight and height than native infants. When we account for a rich set of birth and socioeconomic characteristics that display substantial differences between natives and refugees, the gaps in birthweight and age-adjusted height persist, but the gap in age-adjusted weight disappears. Although refugee infants close the weight gap at the mean over time, the gap at the lower end of the distribution persists. The rich set of covariates we use explains about 35% of the baseline difference in birthweight and more than half of the baseline difference in current height. However, even after that, refugee infants' average birthweight is 0.17 standard deviations (sd) lower and their current height is 0.23 sd lower. These gaps are even larger for refugee infants born prior to migrating to Turkey, suggesting that remaining deficits reflect conditions in the source country prior to migration rather than deficits in access to maternal and child health services within Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Syrian refugees, birthweight, anthropometric measures, forced displacement, Turkey |
| JEL: | J61 O15 F22 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15819&r= |
| By: | Murat Demirci (Koç University); Murat Güray Kirdar |
| Abstract: | Turkey hosts the largest population of refugees globally; however, we know little about their labor market outcomes at the national level. We use the 2018 round of the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which includes a representative sample of Syrian refugees in Turkey for the first time, to examine a rich set of labor market outcomes. We find that the native-refugee gap in men’s employment in Turkey (in favor of natives) is much smaller than that reported for most developed countries. Moreover, men’s employment peaks quite early (one year) after arrival and remains there, whereas women’s employment is lower, to begin with, and changes little over time. Once we account for demographic and educational differences, the native-refugee gap in men’s (women’s) paid employment reduces to 4.7 (4.0) percentage points (pp). These small gaps conceal that refugees’ formal employment is much lower. Even after accounting for the differences in covariates, refugee men’s formal employment rate is 58 pp lower. In addition, the native-refugee employment gap is the smallest in manufacturing for men and agriculture for women, and the gap is also much smaller in wage-employment than self-employment and unpaid family work. Finally, accounting for the covariates, the native-refugee employment gap widens for older and for more educated groups, and the gap in men’s employment vanishes for refugees whose mother tongue is Turkish but persists for refugees whose mother tongue is Arabic or Kurdish. |
| Date: | 2022–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1588&r= |
| By: | Ugur Aytun (Kütahya Dumlupinar University); Cem Özgüzel (OECD) |
| Abstract: | On 24 November 2015, Turkish military shot down a Russian fighter jet near the Syrian-Turkey border after it violated Turkish airspace for about 17 seconds. Russia retaliated by imposing an embargo on 17 agricultural HS-6 level products from Turkey that would be effective for 22 months. We exploit this natural experiment to evaluate the impact of sanctions on Turkish exports and exporters. Using restrictive customs and firm-level data in a triple difference framework, we estimate the effect of these sanctions on the exports towards Russia, for embargoed and non-embargoed products. We estimate a total trade loss of $3.25bn for Turkish exports, 65% of which stemming from non-embargoed products. We investigate the underlying mechanism through firm-level analysis. First, we find that number of firms that trade with Russia and export volumes decreased dramatically. Second, firms re-routed their exports to bordering countries to circumvent the sanctions. Finally, we find that medium and large firms managed to adjust to the crisis while small firms suffered the main effects of the embargo. |
| Date: | 2021–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1482&r= |
| By: | Thibault Lemaire (1Banque de France & Université Paris 1 Panthéon - Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Water scarcity and droughts have long characterized the Middle East and North Africa, and climate change represents an additional challenge to this region’s development prospects. Using macroeconomic and climate panel data for Arab League members, Iran and Turkey during the period 1960-–2018, this paper assesses the effects of sustained drought deviations from their historical norms on output growth in the region and shows that droughts decrease output growth in oil importing countries, with no or statistically weakly significant positive effects in oil exporting countries. These effects do not strengthen as the horizon increases and vanish after one year but do not revert in subsequent periods, leading to lasting losses in output level in oil importing countries. The agricultural sector and civil violence appear to be two of the transmission channels. The results advocate for carefully planned economic diversification in the region and shed light to associated risks. |
| Date: | 2022–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1578&r= |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-Universität Marburg); Reza Zamani (Allameh Tabataba'i University) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of a corruption reflection index on internal conflict in Iran using a novel measure of corruption based on newspaper coverage. We use the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and its applied tools of impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to track the response of protests to shocks in corruption levels. Using annual data from 1962 to 2019, we find a positive and significant response of protests to a positive shock in the news-based corruption reflection index. We also show that economic growth and military spending are the main channels where higher corruption may lead to higher internal protests. |
| Date: | 2022–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1606&r= |
| By: | Olivier Chanel (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphanie Vincent Lyk-Jensen (Danish Centre for Social Science Research); Jean-Christophe Vergnaud (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how affective forecasting errors (A.F.E.s), the difference between anticipated emotion and the emotion actually experienced, may induce changes in preferences on time, risk and occupation after combat. Building on psychological theories incorporating the role of emotion in decision-making, we designed a before-and-after-mission survey for Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2011. Our hypothesis of an effect from A.F.E.s is tested by controlling for other mechanisms that may also change preferences: immediate emotion, trauma effect – proxied by post-traumatic stress disorder (P.T.S.D.) – and changes in wealth and risk perception. At the aggregate level, results show stable preferences before and after mission. We find positive A.F.E.s for all three emotions studied (fear, anxiety and excitement), with anticipated emotions stronger than those actually experienced. We provide evidence that positive A.F.E.s regarding fear significantly increase risk tolerance and impatience, while positive A.F.E.s regarding excitement strengthen the will to stay in the military. Trauma has no impact on these preferences. |
| Keywords: | Risk preferences,time preferences,affective forecasting errors,P.T.S.D.,Afghanistan,combat |
| Date: | 2022–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03620348&r= |
| By: | Emre Yüksel; Hüseyin Ikizler (OSTIM Technical University); Ali Emre Mutlu (RT Presidency of Strategy and Budget) |
| Abstract: | Like many MENA countries, the factors leading to climate change in Turkey have drastically escalated in the last two decades. This paper mainly focuses on the issue of ensuring food security. We aim to examine the significance of climate shocks in Turkey's food prices. The unique structures of this paper are threefold: First, we define climate shocks as persistent deviations from the long-term mean in a region regarding temperature and precipitation due to climate change; second, controlling for possible shocks, we examine the role of climate change in food price processes; and third, we examine the causal effect of food price on per capita food expenditure based on the demand equation. We find the most prominent climate change effect on prices of bread and cereals, and other food products. The estimates of the second phase of the analysis suggest that both price and the wealth effects on food consumption increase more in regions where climate change exists than in regions with no significant change in climate figures. However, we do not observe significant differences in the wealth effect on non-food consumption among the regions. |
| Date: | 2021–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1516&r= |
| By: | Pelin Öge Güney (Hacettepe University) |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy plays a central role in stabilizing macroeconomic fluctuations. In addition to monetary policy, uncertainty in monetary policy associated with uncertainty in interest rates is an important determinant of economic decisions. In this paper, we analyze the effect of interest rate uncertainties for different maturities on industrial production, inflation, unemployment, and exchange rate for Turkey using the VAR model. Since the dominant position of the US economy in global financial markets implies uncertainty about how the monetary policy of the US (MPU) may impact foreign economies, we also discuss the impact of MPU uncertainty on the variables of interest. Although the effect varies across the different maturities of the yield, our findings suggest that interest rate uncertainty reduces the growth of industrial production, increases unemployment, and depreciates the exchange rate. Additionally, inflation increases in response to interest rate uncertainty shocks. Finally, while a shock in MPU uncertainty tends to significantly increase unemployment, it decreases the growth of production. |
| Date: | 2022–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1558&r= |
| By: | Aysun Hiziroglu Aygun (Istanbul Technical University); Selin Koksal; Gokce Uysal |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the pandemic affected the labor market in Turkey, using a unique dataset collected via face-to-face interviews in September and October 2020. Relying on the retrospective nature of our dataset, we study a broad set of outcome variables to identify the most affected groups in labor market during the first wave of COVID-19. We contribute to the literature by providing evidence from a developing country which has long-lasting structural problems in its labor market such as gender divide in paid work and high informal employment. Our results indicate that, being a woman, having low education levels and having children at home were important risk factors in terms of labor market outcomes during the pandemic. At the intersection, women with children who did not have a high school degree are found be the most vulnerable group as they are more likely drop out of employment and to report a loss in income and in hours of paid work. Self-employment and informal employment are emerged as other risk factors contributing to the vulnerability in labor market. Our findings provide insightful evidence on discussing the effectiveness of job protection policies that cover only formal employment and disregards the gender imbalances in labor force in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2022–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1533&r= |
| By: | Daniel Silverman; Karl Kaltenthaler; Mujtaba Ali Isani |
| Abstract: | Why do people support—or refrain from supporting—nonviolent protests for political change? The literature offers different answers to this question, but one variable that has received little attention is fears of protest unleashing violent conflict. This is surprising given that protest movements often emerge in insecure societies—from Iraq to Pakistan and Algeria to Myanmar—that have experienced or are at risk of experiencing large-scale civil strife. |
| Keywords: | protest, Nonviolene, Conflict, Fear, Iraq, Violence |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-168&r= |
| By: | Burhan Can Karahasan (Piri Reis University, Turkey); Mehmet Pinar (Edge Hill University) |
| Abstract: | Global combat with climate change is central to policymaking. However, recent discussions underline the rising disparity of the impact of climate change for countries with different topographic conditions. Motivated by the rising importance of local differences in climatic developments, this paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of the agriculture sector in Turkey. Using provincial data between 2004 and 2019, our findings show that climate change has a pervasive impact on the regional distribution of agricultural activities. We found out that the impact of climate change on agricultural outcomes is mainly visible through rising temperatures. Those regions with accelerating average temperature are realizing falling agricultural value-added and employment. Moreover, our findings show that the same areas also experience higher food and overall price increases. Our local variability analyses reveal the non-monotonic relationships and suggest that the negative impact of climate change is more observable in for the eastern regions. Our findings demonstrate that climate change is another factor that contributing to the west-east regional development disparities in Turkey. These results are robust to different model specifications and endogeneity of climate change. |
| Date: | 2021–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1524&r= |
| By: | Ali Taher Al-Hamoud (alitahernaser@hotmail.com); Ahmed Qassem Moften |
| Abstract: | The issue of youth occupies a central place in development priorities and strategies. It is the issue that most intersects and converges with all the issues of society in its present and future. In Iraq, the youth group was among the groups most affected by the conditions of crises that Iraqi society was exposed to, as it bore for long periods the burden of wars, conflicts and violence, and it also entered the predicament of unemployment. Despite the clear growth witnessed by efforts concerned with youth during the past two decades, youth empowerment projects and their inclusion in development processes remained negatively affected by societal changes and transformations that were reflected in the results on the levels of government awareness, the awareness of civil society organizations, and large sectors of youth themselves, which requires an appropriate pause and efforts. A national and international collective explores the depths of this transformation and contributes to the empowerment of youth and serving their causes. Their problems, aspirations, sources of anxiety and frustration, their outlook on the future and their positions on basic issues such as security, participation, communication, media... etc. These topics, in addition to their knowledge value, can form a basis for understanding the youth in Iraq. The current study aimed to identify the vision of Iraqi youth for their country, to reveal their grievances and their economic and social aspirations, and to know their attitudes and opinions about the nature of the political process and its mechanisms, joints and components, whether it was their evaluation of the experience or their aspirations to develop it, as well as its attempt to discover the similarities and consistency in their views about the Iraqi past and present. |
| Date: | 2022–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1598&r= |
| By: | Christoph Zürcher |
| Abstract: | This working paper provides a summary of three systematic reviews on the effectiveness of aid in Afghanistan, Mali, and South Sudan between 2008 and 2021. These three countries, like all other highly fragile countries, suffer from bad governance, lack of capacity, and violence. The systematic reviews provide robust evidence that aid interventions in precisely those fields are not effective. Aid cannot improve governance, build capacity for central governments, or stabilize the situation. The international aid community can no longer ignore this evidence. |
| Keywords: | Foreign aid, Aid effectiveness, Systematic review, Afghanistan, Mali, South Sudan |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-160&r= |
| By: | Diego Martin; Erin Neale; Raffaele Bertini (Regional Office of IOM for Middle East and North Africa); Julia Smith Omomo; Olga Aymerich |
| Abstract: | Among the main socio-economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Middle Eastern countries, its impact on small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is one of the most relevant, especially in post-conflict and fragile countries and contexts. To analyze this, the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Iraq, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the International Trade Centre (ITC) jointly conducted a panel study tracking the pandemic’s impact on SMEs in Iraq. The survey was disseminated among more than 700 SMEs across the country covering 16 economic sectors. Four rounds of data were collected at four points in time between June 2020 and June 2021 (June/July 2020, September 2020, November/December 2020, and June 2021) from businesses registered in the IOM’s database, located in both urban and rural areas. Findings from four rounds of data collection show that COVID-19 negatively affected production, revenue, and employment and, notably, the gender gap in the labor force at the beginning of the pandemic (February to June 2020) and COVID-19-related movement restrictions. This study concludes with related policy recommendations for Iraq and the Middle Eastern countries. |
| Date: | 2022–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1552&r= |
| By: | Ozan Bakis (Bahçesehir University); Sezgin Polat (Galatasaray University) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the evolution of wage inequality in Turkey between 2002 and 2019 using Household Labor Force Surveys. We find a significant decline in wage inequality over the period analyzed, which can be explained by a combination of (i) minimum wage hikes (2004 and 2016), (ii) a stable aggregate demand curve, and (iii) relative stagnation of post-secondary graduate wages. The two minimum wage hikes led to real gains that were preserved over the years for lower wage earners and reduced the wage gap between upper and lower percentiles. The decomposition analysis based on DiNardo et al. (1996) shows that minimum wage hikes had a strong wage (price) effect over the wage distribution. This impact even spilled over for wage earners above the minimum wage. We argue that minimum wage adjustments replace the role of central wage bargaining in an emerging economy with many low qualified jobs and almost no labor market institutions. The stagnating real wages for the upper deciles contributed further to the reduction in inequality in recent years. |
| Date: | 2021–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1509&r= |
| By: | Bassam Yousif (Indiana State University); Omar El-Joumayle |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we apply institutional approaches to understand the economic and social contexts of the protests that took place in Iraq in 2019 to 2020. We use the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators as well as other data to show that political institutions that were established post 2003 have impeded economic development. We study how Iraq’s political settlement along with its already deteriorating economic institutions and unfavorable economic and social conditions have combined to shape poor economic outcomes. That is, increased political openness and inclusion has not resulted in greater economic inclusion; instead, Iraq’s political institutions likely have worked to constrain economic inclusion and a more egalitarian distribution of oil income. We thus offer policy recommendations that include a proposal for (limited) basic income scheme to distribute Iraq’s oil rents. |
| Date: | 2022–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1563&r= |