|
on Central and Western Asia |
|
Issue of 2023‒01‒09
fourteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Azizi, Hamidreza; Çevik, Salim |
| Abstract: | It has become cliché to argue that Turkish-Iranian relations oscillate between a controlled rivalry and limited cooperation. However, in Iraq and Syria, rising tensions between Turkey and Turkey-affiliated groups on the one hand and Iran and Iran-backed groups on the other, have put the two countries on a collision course. Conflictual relations between Turkey and Iran have the potential to destabilise the Middle East and the South Caucasus, spawning additional security risks as well as waves of migration towards Europe. Such a situation could also complicate matters related to European energy security. Europe should remain alert and help to ease tensions through deescalation mechanisms. In this regard, efforts to strengthen Iraqi sovereignty may serve as a preemptive measure. |
| Keywords: | Iraq,Syria,Turkey,Iran,rivalry,cooperation,Middle East,South Caucasus,European energy security,PKK,Kurdish question |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:582022&r= |
| By: | Eldem, Tuba |
| Abstract: | Among the many significant geopolitical consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine has been the reinvigoration of the Middle Corridor, both as a regional economic zone comprising Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey but also as an increasingly attractive alternative route between Europe and China. Russia's war has disrupted overland connectivity via the New Eurasian Land Bridge, also known as Northern Corridor, which passes through - now heavily sanctioned - Russian and Belarusian territory. While the Middle Corridor will not be able to fully replace the Northern Corridor, regional integration along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route is likely to increase its potential at the expense of Russia in the long-term. Ankara's close cultural ties with the Central Asian republics combined with the latter's willingness to diversify their foreign relations away from Moscow and Beijing provide Turkey with greater leverage in the region. The EU and Turkey share a common interest in enhancing Eurasian connectivity for several reasons: to promote peace and prosperity in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, to enhance commercial access to Central Asia, to increase the resilience of European supply chains, and to diversify European energy supplies. Strengthening Eurasian connectivity would also work to balance Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence in Central Asia. |
| Keywords: | Russia's war on Ukraine,Middle Corridor,Central Asia,Caucasus,Turkey,Northern Corridor,China,Belarussia,Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:642022&r= |
| By: | Esen, Berk |
| Abstract: | Millions of Turkish voters are geared up for the twin (parliamentary and presidential) elections that are scheduled to take place in June 2023 at the latest. After nearly 20 years in power, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's rule may seem unassailable to many observers of Turkish politics. However, owing to the economic downturn and rifts in his ruling party, this will be the first election in which Erdoğan is not the clear favourite. Six opposition parties of different ideological origins have come together to pick a joint presidential candidate to stand against Erdoğan and to offer a common platform for restoring parliamentary democracy. Although the opposition alliance has reasonable chances of defeating Erdoğan's ruling bloc, their victory would not guarantee a smooth process of transition to parliamentary democracy. If the opposition can defeat Erdoğan, the new government would need to undertake the arduous tasks of establishing a meritocratic bureaucracy, restructuring Turkey's diplomatic course and economic policy, and switching back to parliamentary rule. Due to the opposition alliance's diverse composition, accomplishing these goals may be as difficult as winning the elections. |
| Keywords: | Turkey,parliamentary and presidential elections,Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,Justice and Development Party (AKP),Nationalist Movement Party (MHP),Nation Alliance,Future Party (GP),Ahmet Davutoğlu,Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA),Ali Babacan |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:552022&r= |
| By: | Yeğen, Mesut |
| Abstract: | With the background of the Syrian crisis, irregular migration, and authoritarianism - strengthened by the collapse of the Peace Process of the Turkish state with the Workers' Party of Kurdistan (PKK) in 2015 and the 2016 coup attempt - the Turkish government has amended the Citizenship Law, changed policies concerning refugees and irregular migrants, and re-designed access to basic citizenship rights in the last decade. Due to these amendments and changes, tens of thousands of Syrians have been awarded Turkish citizenship. A few millions of them are now settled in Turkey and exercising social and education rights without being Turkish citizens. This state of affairs contradicts previous Turkish policies for citizenship and supports the claims that the government under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been constructing a more Islamic and less secular Turkish nationhood. Concomitantly, the basic citizenship rights of Kurds and members of the Gulen community have been massively violated. This indicates that being Muslim or Turkish does not protect citizens from discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Turkey,Citizenship Law,Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP),Workers' Party of Kurdistan (PKK),Justice and Development Party (AKP),Gulen community,Kurds,Turkification,Syrians,Afghans,refugees,migrants |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:622022&r= |
| By: | Esen, Berk |
| Abstract: | In a remarkable development for Turkish politics, six opposition parties signed a joint manifesto at a public ceremony on 28 February. The document outlines plans to abolish the executive presidential system and restore rule of law and civil liberties under a "strengthened parliamentary system". The successive concentration of power in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's hands has culminated in a hyper-presidential system without meaningful institutional checks. The opposition parties are determined to reverse this process by offering the electorate an alternative political platform supported by a single presidential candidate. If their cooperation generates a pre-electoral alliance for the upcoming elections, the opposition camp dubbed the "Table of Six" has a reasonable chance of defeating Erdoğan and his governing bloc. |
| Keywords: | opposition alliance,Turkey,Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,Justice and Development Party (AKP),National Action Party (MHP),presidential elections |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:522022&r= |
| By: | Alberto Delgado, José Luis; Demirbaş, Dilek; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the fiscal performance of Turkey and Argentina during the period 2000 - 2021, when both countries faced rapid economic growth with the consequent impact on social welfare. This work explored two different systems: Centralization in Turkey and Federalism in Argentina and, in general, studied the decentralization impact of both systems on social welfare. This study intended to create new social welfare indexes in other to analyze the resource allocation in different regions of these countries. As a first step, we built a regional Human Development Index (HDI) for each region. This attempt is considered a new contribution to the literature and intended to fill the gap in this field. Afterward, this index was compared with the fiscal resources allocation (FRA), used as a proxy of fiscal decentralization in an econometric panel data model. By using this method, we concluded that the social welfare indexes have a positive relationship with the fiscal resource allocation in the Federal system, such as in Argentina, but not in the centralized system such as in Turkey during the period analyzed from 2000 to 2020. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Centralization, Decentralization, HDI Index, Argentina, Turkey. |
| JEL: | D6 D60 H0 H3 N1 O10 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115432&r= |
| By: | Tastan, Kadri |
| Abstract: | The implementation of the European Union's (EU) Green Deal to reduce emissions by 2030 and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 will have an impact on the EU's trade policy and on its trade relations with its non-EU partners. With the ongoing decarbonisation process of European economic sectors, the EU's climate policy will be increasingly integrated into its trade policy through measures such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and by strengthening the environment chapters of its trade agreements. Therefore, the debate on the future of Turkey-EU trade relations should focus on future prospects for decarbonisation and trade if both sides are keen to maintain or deepen their trade relations. In the current context, which is rife with geopolitical and energy security considerations, a long-term vision and a holistic approach are needed now more than ever. |
| Keywords: | Green Deal,Decarbonisation,Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,CBAM,Nationally Determined Contributions,NDCs,Customs Union,Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership,TTIP,EU Emissions Trading System,Turkey |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:662022&r= |
| By: | Murat Demirci (Department of Economics, Koc University); Andrew D. Foster (Department of Economics and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University); Murat G. Kirdar (Department of Economics, Bogazici University and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines disparities in health and nutrition among native and Syrian-refugee children in Turkey. With a view toward understanding the need for targeted programs addressing child well-being among the refugee population, we analyze, in particular, the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS). The TDHS is one of few data sets providing representative data on health and nutrition for a large refugee and native population. We find no evidence of a difference in infant or child mortality between refugee children born in Turkey and native children. However, refugee infants born in Turkey have lower birthweight and age-adjusted weight and height than native infants. When we account for a rich set of birth and socioeconomic characteristics that display substantial differences between natives and refugees, the gaps in birthweight and age-adjusted height persist, but the gap in age-adjusted weight disappears. Although refugee infants close the weight gap at the mean over time, the gap at the lower end of the distribution persists. The rich set of covariates we use explains about 35% of the baseline difference in birthweight and more than half of the baseline difference in current height. However, even after that, refugee infants’ average birthweight is 0.17 standard deviations (sd) lower and their current height is 0.23 sd lower. These gaps are even larger for refugee infants born prior to migrating to Turkey, suggesting that remaining deficits reflect conditions in the source country prior to migration rather than deficits in access to maternal and child health services within Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Syrian refugees, birthweight, anthropometric measures, forced displacement, Turkey. |
| JEL: | J61 O15 F22 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2208&r= |
| By: | Oeindrila Dube; Joshua E. Blumenstock; Michael Callen; Michael J. Callen |
| Abstract: | Religious adherence has been hard to study in part because it is hard to measure. We develop a new measure of religious adherence, which is granular in both time and space, using anonymized mobile phone transaction records. After validating the measure with traditional data, we show how it can shed light on the nature of religious adherence in Islamic societies. Exploiting random variation in climate, we find that as economic conditions in Afghanistan worsen, people become more religiously observant. The effects are most pronounced in areas where droughts have the biggest economic consequences, such as croplands without access to irrigation. |
| Keywords: | religion, mobile phones, big data, climate, economic shocks |
| JEL: | Z10 Z12 Q10 Q15 Q54 O13 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10114&r= |
| By: | Niftiyev, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | Since February 2022, a new phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine has begun. Apart from the direct consequences for Russia and Ukraine, all post-Soviet countries are affected, as Western sanctions against Russia significantly limit the economic development and cooperation prospects of the post-Soviet region. Azerbaijan is one of Russia's most important trading partners and a neighboring country, and there are serious concerns that these sanctions could have a negative impact on Azerbaijan's socioeconomic life. This is mainly because domestic production in Russia has declined, agricultural exports have been curtailed, and trade and transportation routes have been disrupted. Against the background of all these factors, the social impact of this situation seems to be dramatic. Therefore, this article analyzes qualitative data from social media and websites dealing with Azerbaijan's social challenges. To this end, expert opinions were analyzed using the thematic analysis method to examine the social impact of sanctions at three levels: people living abroad (migrants or expats), remittances, and the purchasing power of locals. The results show that there is a high expectation among experts that sanctions could have a negative impact on remittance flows from Russia to Azerbaijan due to the devalued Russian ruble. There is also a possibility that migrants working and living in Russia will return to Azerbaijan in greater numbers. Finally, experts agreed that the purchasing power of locals in Azerbaijan has declined due to sharp price increases that followed the production slump and export restrictions in Russia. These findings could support ongoing preparations for new socioeconomic realities in Azerbaijan as a result of Western sanctions against Russia. Now policymakers must develop a plan to quickly address Azerbaijan's social problems, even if it is not an emergency. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijani economy,expert opinion,Russia,sanctions,social impacts,thematic analysis |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:266623&r= |
| By: | Eloi Bigas (Siris Academic); Nicandro Bovenzi (Siris Academic); Enric Fuster (Siris Academic); Francesco A. Massucci (Siris Academic); Hugo Hollanders (Maastricht University); Monika Matusiak (European Commission - JRC); Ramojus Reimeris (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Armenia, Azerbaijan, , Georgia,the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine have committed to develop place-based Smart Specialisation Strategies for research and innovation with the objective of enhancing their competitiveness and drive structural change of the economies. The purpose of this study is to contribute to evidence-informed research and innovation policy, in particular the development of Smart Specialisation Strategies. The study presents a solid basis for these processes in the Eastern Partnership region by offering an extensive quantitative analysis of national-level potential in the economy, innovation, science and technology. A limited number of economic and innovation (E&I) specialisation domains matched with relevant scientific and technological (S&T) specialisation domains are identified for each Eastern Partnership country. The study proposes a new method to identify concordances between the EI and ST specialisation domains so that they can be used to inform ongoing Smart Specialisation processes in the Eastern Partnership countries with available international data. Interested countries need to compliment this analysis with the relevant national data sources and other useful information resulting from the qualitative expert inputs and stakeholder engagement. The report also indicates the evidence-informed areas for knowledge-based economic cooperation to support bilateral and region-wide initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Smart Specialisation, innovation policy, quantitative analysis, mapping, EU Eastern Partnership |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc128524&r= |
| By: | Niftiyev, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | After the painful transition process from a command economy to a market economy, Azerbaijan used its rich hydrocarbon resources to promote economic growth and development. As a result, national income and per capita income soared, infrastructure improved, and poverty was reduced. However, Azerbaijan's economy seems to have been caught up in the negative effects of the oil boom. In other words, non-oil tradeable sectors such as manufacturing have not been able to build on the success and gain a high share of output, employment, and exports due to the increase in the real effective exchange rate (REER) and domestic prices. So far, the literature on studies of Dutch disease in the Azerbaijani economy has focused on highly aggregated data without properly separating the effects of Dutch disease, namely resource movement and spending effects. In this paper, the effects of resource movement were examined using manufacturing employment with a standard unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR). However, to ensure analytical accuracy, the spending effect was also considered. The results show that manufacturing employment responds positively to mining employment. However, when employment in the service sector increases, manufacturing employment shrinks, which is also negatively affected by oil prices and the appreciation of the REER. These results may be useful for policymakers to neutralize the impact of Dutch disease to ensure sustainable development goals and promote export-led growth policies in the manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan economy,Dutch disease,employment,labor resources,manufacturing,natural resource curse,unrestricted VAR |
| JEL: | C32 F41 Q32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:266654&r= |
| By: | Jeong, Minhyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Min, Jiyoung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Jeong, Dongyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | This study was designed as a primary study to analyze the economic significance and potential of cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the IT sector, and to derive implications for new directions between Korea and the three countries with the advent of the fourth industrial revolution era. The goal of the study is to discuss what the development of the IT industry means for the three economies, examine the characteristics of each country, and gain policy implications on how cooperation with Korea should proceed in the future. To this end, this study is consisted of the following four components. First, the economic significance of IT technology cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan is viewed from the perspective of structural transformation. Second, the effect of IT cooperation between Korea and Russia on the Russian economy is quantitatively estimated through the analytical framework of structural transformation. Third, to supplement the limitations of theoretical discussions and derive customized cooperation directions for each country, the current status and policies of the IT industry in the three countries are examined in detail. Fourth, IT technology subsectors promising for cooperation between Korea and Russia are identified, from the patent citation analysis and network analysis. |
| Keywords: | Structural Transformation; IT; Russia; Kazakhstan; Uzbekistan |
| Date: | 2022–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2022_025&r= |
| By: | HIRAMI Kenta |
| Abstract: | This case is the first case in which the DSU Article 25 arbitration was used as an ad hoc alternative appeal mechanism against the backdrop of the dysfunction of the WTO Appellate Body since the end of 2019. This arbitration procedure is very similar to the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA), which is expected to be utilized soon, and in that sense, it may serve as a touchstone for the future operation of the MPIA. The question is whether this appeal arbitration mechanism is a mere replication of the Appellate Body procedure or a new appeal mechanism that fixes the problems of the Appellate Body. As far as this case is concerned, its arbitral award appears to be generally restrained, and one gets the impression that this appeal mechanism is not a mere replication of the Appellate Body procedure. Nevertheless, it is too early to predict the course of the alternative appeal arbitration mechanism from this award alone, and since, in such a new dispute settlement mechanism, early practices will largely determine the working paradigm and legal culture to be followed thereafter, the future of the appeal arbitration mechanism under the DSU Article 25 will depend on how faithfully arbitrators and parties to a dispute use that mechanism in initial cases. |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:22030&r= |