|
on Central and Western Asia |
|
Issue of 2022‒11‒14
eight papers chosen by |
| By: | Okello,,Jimmy Apaa; Canagarajah,Roy S.; Brownbridge,Martin |
| Abstract: | Twelve of the 29 transition economies in Europe and Central Asia are high remittance recipients, with average remittance receipts equivalent to 5 percent or more of their gross domestic product in the 2010s. The paper examines the evolution, during the 2000s and 2010s, of real unit labor costs, denominated in local currency and U.S. dollars, of the transition economies. Local currency and U.S. dollar real unit labor costs rose much faster between 2003 and 2015-17 in the high remittance recipient economies than in the other transition economies, although there was considerable variance between the countries in the high remittance recipient group. Among the high remittance recipients, approximately half of the increase in real unit labor costs denominated in U.S. dollars can be attributed to increases in local currency real unit labor costs and half to appreciation of their real exchange rates. Fixed effects and cross-country econometric estimates suggest that remittances had a positive and significant impact on the changes in domestic currency real unit labor costs in the transition economies. |
| Keywords: | Rural Labor Markets,International Trade and Trade Rules,Migration and Development,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2021–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9513&r= |
| By: | Demirguc-Kunt,Asli; Lokshin,Michael M.; Torre,Ivan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the reopening process of countries in Europe and Central Asia after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and provides evidence on the effects of different reopening trajectories and their timing and speed on economic recovery. The analysis indicates that countries that adopted a gradual, staged reopening experienced stronger economic recovery compared with the countries that rushed into lifting the restrictive measures before the pandemic was under control. Postponing lifting the restrictions until after the pandemic's peak was reached has a positive impact on economic activity. Governance also matters: a higher level of trust in government is associated with increased economic activity among countries that carried out a gradual reopening process. There is also suggestive evidence that providing people objective data on the progress of the pandemic may speed up the recovery process. |
| Keywords: | Energy Policies&Economics,Health Care Services Industry,Educational Sciences,Public Health Promotion |
| Date: | 2020–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9480&r= |
| By: | Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas; Arias, Pedro Marcelo |
| Abstract: | Despite initial concerns of catastrophic outcomes, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdown measures did not severely affect regional agriculture in Central Asia and the Caucasus. They did, however, affect food supply chains in terms of demand and logistics. Food prices were volatile throughout 2020 and particularly high in countries with currency depreciation. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic as a human and health crisis presents an ever increasing risk to the economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus. The global implications of the pandemic, combined with a decline in oil and gas exports and migrant remittances, could impede recovery and undermine economic stability in the region. Policymakers should avoid disrupting domestic food supply chains and placing barriers to trade through export bans and quotas. At the same time, they must ensure food security and reduced price volatility through diversified trade networks. Deeper domestic value chains and efficient management of public and private food stock reserves will better prepare countries to face the continuing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Better-informed and targeted policy responses to a pandemic require improved national systems of nutrition research and monitoring, and timely availability of data not only relating to production but also to other levels of the agrifood chain. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamopb:327321&r= |
| By: | Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas; Arias, Pedro Marcelo |
| Abstract: | Несмотря на изначальные опасения по поводу катастрофических последствий, пандемия COVID-19 и связанные с ней карантинные меры не оказали существенного влияния на сельское хозяйство в регионах Центральной Азии и на Кавказе. Однако они повлияли на продовольственные производственно-сбыто-вые цепочки через спрос и логистику. Цены на продовольствие были нестабильными в течении всего 2020 года и особенно высокими в странах, где произошло обесценивание национальной валюты. Однако продолжающаяся пандемия COVID-19, представляющая собой гуманитарный кризис и кризис в области здравоохранения, несет все больший риск для экономики стран Центральной Азии и Кавказа. Последствия пандемии глобального масштаба в сочетании с сокращением экспорта нефти и газа и денежных переводов мигрантов могут препятствовать восстановлению и подорвать экономическую стабильность в регионе. Лицам, определяющим политику, следует избегать нарушения внутренних цепочек поставок продовольствия и создания торговых барьеров посредством запретов и квот на экспорт. В то же время они должны обеспечивать продовольственную безопасность и снижать волатильность цен за счет диверсифицикации торговых связей. Более глубокие внутренние цепочки создания стоимости и эффективное управление государственными и частными запасами продовольствия лучше подготовят страны к преодолению последствий продолжающейся пандемии. Для более обоснованных и целенаправленных правительственных мер по минимизации последствий пандемии необходимы усовершенствованные национальные системы исследований и мониторинга в области питания, а также своевременное наличие данных, касающихся не только производства, но и других звеньев агропродовольственной цепочки. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamopb:327322&r= |
| By: | Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert L. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether and how expectations have contributed to the turbulent path of the Turkish lira since 2008. We derive uncertainty measures surrounding GDP growth, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rates based on survey data from Consensus Economics. Our results illustrate that forecasts have affected realized exchange rates and stock market returns via increased uncertainty. We also show that expectations regarding monetary policy have changed throughout the sample period. In line with a gradual adjustment of expectations professionals have accounted for the violation of the Taylor rule. |
| Keywords: | Disagreement, Expectations, Foreign exchange, Survey data, Taylor rule, Turkish lira, Uncertainty |
| JEL: | F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2022–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114963&r= |
| By: | Mulabdic,Alen; Yasar,Pinar |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a framework to study countries’ export potentials. It uses a gravity model to develop measures of export and trade policy potentials at the aggregate, bilateral, and industry levels. The methodology is applied to the case of Turkey. The analysis finds that Turkey was moderately under-exporting over 2010-17. The United States, China, and Japan are important untapped destination markets, accounting for US$29 billion (16-17 percent of total exports) of missing exports. Industry-level results suggest that Turkey has high export potential in the electronics and chemical industries. |
| Keywords: | International Trade and Trade Rules,Trade and Services,Food Security,Health and Sanitation |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9557&r= |
| By: | Rodriguez Takeuchi,Laura Kiku; Atamanov,Aziz |
| Abstract: | This paper simulates the welfare and poverty impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Islamic Republic of Iran, emphasizing the role of inflation, which lowered the purchasing power of households and had heterogeneous impacts across the distribution and in different regions of the country. First, income losses are estimated with a microsimulation analysis based on shock scenarios. Second, combining data on price changes with expenditure baskets for various groups of households, group-specific price indices are calculated. These are then applied to the post-shock income changes to assess the deterioration of living standards associated with inflation. Poverty substantially increases, by up to 21 percentage points, as a combined result of the fall in household incomes and high inflation through the pandemic. Iranians in the bottom half of the welfare distribution, those working in services and high-contact economic sectors, and those in rural areas are disproportionately affected. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Inflation,Employment and Unemployment,Health Care Services Industry |
| Date: | 2021–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9558&r= |
| By: | Markowsky, Eva; Wolf, Fridolin; Schäfer, Marie |
| Abstract: | We compare the earnings of monolingual and competent bilingual immigrants in Germany. A joint discussion of language skills as human capital or social capital and theories of ethnic marginalisation leads us to expect heterogeneous returns to bilingualism. To track this potential divergence, we differentiate effects by gender, language group, immigrant density in respond- ents' areas of residence, and communication intensity of their occupations. Doing so reveals sizeable differences in the returns to bilingualism. We find positive effects for the largest immigrant community in Germany, the Turkish population, while other language groups do not seem to benefit from retaining their heritage language. Individuals with a Turkish migration background have higher earnings when proficient in their heritage language and German. We discuss how the size of the immigrant community and the bilingualism premium might be related and pursue two alternative explanations: Specialised labour demand due to the wide dissemination of the Turkish-speaking population in Germany and ethnic social networks that are open only to those with proficiency in the heritage language. Our data indicate that both are important but operate in gender-specific ways. Turkish bilingual men experience an earnings premium only in occupations with high communication intensity, while there is no statistical relationship for women. The social capital channel is also much more potent for men, while bilingual German-Turkish women do not seem to profit from heritage-language networks for labour market success to the same degree. We discuss differences by gender in activating social capital and cultural influences as drivers of this gap. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:uhhwps:68&r= |