|
on Central and Western Asia |
|
Issue of 2022‒11‒07
twelve papers chosen by |
| By: | Akmoldoev, Kiyalbek |
| Abstract: | Due to the geographical location of the Central Asian countries and Kyrgyzstan, which do not have direct access to the sea, there is a dependence on the transport route via Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus to trade goods with the European market. The Chinese BRI project would offer an alternative for Central Asian countries to connect economically with European, Middle Eastern and West Asian countries. However, turning away from Russia and toward China holds potential for conflict. Therefore, the main objective of this article is to analyze the BRI projects in Central Asia and predict how realistic it is to implement them without the "permission" of the Russian Federation. In doing so, it takes a closer look at the strategic interest for China in Central Asia and how the BRI project in Kyrgyzstan is performing. The SWOT analysis points to a win-win situation, which, however, comes with a warning to be cautious. Particular attention should be paid to financial dependence on China, which could be due to a debt trap. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road Initiative,Kyrgyzstan,Geopolitics,Debt-Trap,Silk Road Route |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:20225&r= |
| By: | Amirova, Iroda; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir |
| Abstract: | In Central Asia, community water governance institutions emerged and prevailed for a long time. By employing an analytical modelling approach using variants of the evolutionary Hawk-Dove game, we scrutinise three epochs' (pre-Tsarist, Tsarist and Soviet) coordination mechanisms and qualitatively compare them in the efficiency spectrum. We find that the pre-Tsarist community water governance setting, due to its synergetic and pluralistic aspects, was associated with higher efficiency than the Tsarist and Soviet periods' settings. The pre-Tsarist community arrangement linked irrigation duties with benefits. Our analytical model reveals how the Tsarist Russian regulation that replaced the election-sanctioning element with a de-facto system appointing the irrigation staff and paying them fixed wages corrupted the well-established pre-Tsarist decentralised water governance. We term this move the "Kaufman drift". Resulting inadequacies in the water governance could have been averted either by restoring the community mechanism's election-sanctioning attribute or else with an alternative approach such as privatising water resources. With the use of the "Krivoshein game," we produce an alternative scenario for the region where we envisage the potential consequences of the water privatisation. Modelling history might not disentangle the complex nature of water governance evolution fully, however, the heuristics we use in the analysis assist in guiding the diagnosis of the matter and its solution. This makes our study well-timed for contemporary Central Asia. The analyses assess current water management's chances to return to ancient principles of election-sanctioning and perspectives of private irrigation water rights. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:327298&r= |
| By: | Bruhn,Miriam; Demirguc-Kunt,Asli; Singer,Dorothe |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the reallocation of economic activityacross firms, and whether this reallocation depends on the competition environment. The paper uses the World Bank’sEnterprise Surveys COVID-19 Follow-up Surveys for about 8,000 firms in 23 emerging and developing countries inEurope and Central Asia, matched with 2019 Enterprise Surveys data. It finds that during the COVID-19 crisis,economic activity was reallocated toward firms with higher pre-crisis labor productivity. Countries with a strongcompetition environment experienced more reallocation from less productive to more productive firms than countries witha weak competition environment. The evidence also suggests that reallocation from low- to high-productivity firmsduring the COVID-19 crisis was stronger compared with pre-crisis times. Finally, the analysis shows thatgovernment support measures implemented in response to the crisis may have adverse effects on competition andproductivity growth since support went to less productive and larger firms, regardless of their pre-crisis innovation. |
| Date: | 2021–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9851&r= |
| By: | Brownbridge,Martin; Canagarajah,Roy S. |
| Abstract: | The deep recession in many of the emerging market transition economies of Europe and Central Asia caused by the COVID-19 crisis has raised fears of long-term damage to potential output through scarring and hysteresis. These economies were also hit hard by the great recession caused by the global financial crisis. This paper provides empirical estimates of the impact of the great recession on the subsequent medium-term level of real gross domestic product in a sample of 65 middle-income countries. It finds evidence of a significant hysteresis parameter in these countries. The paper also examines how the combination of a hysteresis parameter and a positive fiscal multiplier can mean that a countercyclical fiscal expansion that successfully mitigates the output loss in a recession need not worsen public debt levels in the medium to long term because of its positive impact on potential output and thus the tax base. |
| Keywords: | Economic Adjustment and Lending,Macro-Fiscal Policy,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Public Sector Economics,Macroeconomics and Economic Growth,Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,International Trade and Trade Rules |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9682&r= |
| By: | Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This report contributes to the project "Securing agriculture and rural development in times of COVID-19, pathways to regional responses for recovery, reforms, and resilience" by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The objectives of the report are threefold: 1) to assess the multiple impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture, food security, and rural community; 2) to review the policy responses taken by the governments of eight Central Asia and Caucasus (CAC) countries to mitigate the effects of the crisis, and 3) to provide contextual options to build the resilience of the agricultural sector during post-COVID-19 recovery and against future shocks. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:327296&r= |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Selena Duraković (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marcus How; Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernhard Moshammer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Beate Muck (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernd Christoph Ströhm; Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Nina Vujanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Adam Żurawski |
| Abstract: | Economic growth in CESEE in the first half of 2022 was better than expected, and our growth forecasts for this year have been mostly revised upwards. However, global economic conditions are increasingly gloomy, and the worst is yet to come. Inflation is eroding real incomes, consumer confidence is evaporating, business sentiment is deteriorating, interest rates are soaring, and the fiscal space is shrinking. The war in Ukraine will most probably continue at least through 2023, with virtually no scope for a peace agreement. And on top of all that, there is the energy crunch. The CESEE region will probably grow only by 0.3% next year, close to the 0.2% growth that we assume for the euro area. |
| Keywords: | CESEE Central and Eastern Europe, economic forecast, Western Balkans, CIS, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, EU, euro area, convergence, business cycle, coronavirus, COVID, labour markets, unemployment, Russia-Ukraine war, Russia sanctions, commodity prices, inflation, price controls, trade disruptions, Ukrainian refugees, energy crisis, gas, electricity, monetary policy, fiscal policy, impact on Austria |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2022&r= |
| By: | Baez Ramirez,Javier Eduardo; Inan,Osman Kaan; Nebiler,Metin |
| Abstract: | Inflation is typically measured using aggregate price indices that are based on bundles of goodsand services sold or consumed by the “median” agent. In the case of households, in particular, budget shares varysubstantially across income and demographic groups. Assessing how inflation behaves at the household levelrequires understanding how heterogenous changes in consumer prices affect household choices and well-being differently.In recent years, price increases have been particularly high in Turkey, with double-digit inflation starting in 2017 andintensifying in 2018 and 2020 due to exchange rate volatility, macroeconomic instability, and the economicdisruption brought about by Covid-19. This paper calculates income-decile price indices to examine the inflationexperience across income groups and discusses their implications for household welfare. Households in the firstdecile allocate nearly 70 percent of their budget to food and housing, twice as much as the corresponding share forthe typical household in the upper decile. Inflation measures that consider these heterogeneities in expendituresshow a higher burden for the poor in recent inflation episodes driven by rapid increases in food prices (2013,2015 and 2019). In 2015, for instance, 342,000 additional people would have been deemed poor (an increase of 4.2percent) had the poverty calculations taken into account the actual inflation experience of poor and vulnerablehouseholds. A methodological extension of the World Bank’s upper-middle-income poverty line ($5.50 2011 purchasingpower parity) that takes into consideration the inflation experience of the bottom deciles yields higher poverty ratesfor Turkey every year between 2011 and 2020. |
| Keywords: | Inflation,Inequality,Urban Housing,Urban Governance and Management,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Transport Services |
| Date: | 2021–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9869&r= |
| By: | Margaryan, Atom S.; Terzyan, Haroutyun T.; Grigoryan, Emil A. |
| Abstract: | One of the pillars of the Belt and Road Initiative is the deepening of cooperation between member countries, especially in the field of science and innovation. But, is there any historical evidence of the concept of the Great Silk Road as a region of technology transfer, first? Secondly, what are the priorities and development directions of the initiative in the mentioned context? Third, what development guidelines should be set for the participating countries (Washington, Beijing, etc.). And finally, is there really a connection between infrastructure development and innovation activity? To answer the last question, a correlation and econometric analysis has been performed, the results of which indicate positive effects. |
| Keywords: | The Great Silk Road,Belt and Road Initiative,Innovation,Patent Activity,TechnologyTransfer |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:20226&r= |
| By: | Hoseini,Mohammad; Dideh,Mahsa Jahan |
| Abstract: | Using representative survey data including Iranians and Afghan refugees in Iran in 2011–2019,this paper explores the unequal impact of macroeconomic fluctuations due to Iran’s nuclear dispute on Afghanrefugees and host communities. The paper finds that economic shock increases refugee’s exit and disproportionatelyreduces their consumption expenditure and aid received from the host community. In addition, bad and good economiccycles create asymmetric impacts. While negative shocks affect the economic outcomes of two communitieshomogenously, it hurts social cohesion between them. In contrast, economic recovery benefits refugees relativelymore in terms of consumption and income, but the impact on social cohesion measures is insignificant. The findings alsosuggest that in turbulent economic times, both inter-community and intra-community inequalities go up. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Social Cohesion,Employment and Unemployment |
| Date: | 2022–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9915&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The second phase of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative and guidance on financial soundness indicators identify the residential property price index (RPPI) as a critical ingredient of financial stability policy analysis and macroprudential measures. At the request of the National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat), a technical assistance mission was conducted by the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) to support the launch of a new quarterly RPPI for Georgia. This work was part of a three-year project to improve national accounts and price statistics in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, funded by the Government of The Netherlands. The mission finalized the preparatory work to disseminate the quarterly RPPI beginning in April 2021. |
| Keywords: | property price index mission; World Bank staff; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; RPPI compilation; instrumentalities of the TA recipient; Price indexes; Land prices; Housing; Consumer price indexes; Data collection; Eastern Europe; Global |
| Date: | 2022–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/314&r= |
| By: | Karalashvili,Nona; Tamkoc,Mehmet Nazim |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effectiveness of government support to the private sectorduring the COVID-19 pandemic in El Salvador and Georgia using firm-level data collected before and during thepandemic. The two countries are selected because eligibility criteria for support involved pre-pandemic features offirms, as opposed to more prevalent criteria directly linked to firms’ experiences during the pandemic and that greatlyexacerbate concerns about selection bias in estimation. Four outcome variables are studied relating to firms’ workforce,hours of operations, and expectations. Matching and panel estimation techniques are used on full and restrictedsamples, with the latter aimed at reducing selection bias. Government support appears to have helped firms avoid areduction in operations in El Salvador, mainly through cash transfers, which also helped in terms of permanent workers,with the latter effect counteracted by wage subsidies. Smaller firms in Georgia appear to have benefited more fromgovernment support, mostly through fiscal relief, which was partially counteracted by wage subsidies that benefitedlarger firms more. The finding that smaller firms have benefited more helps raise confidence in the analysis asstrong negative selection bias is expected in this context. Manufacturers of textiles and garments in El Salvador andhotels and restaurants in Georgia appear to have benefited from government support, but the patterns in other sectorsare mixed and country-specific, highlighting potential complexities of attempting to target sectors. |
| Date: | 2022–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9980&r= |
| By: | Iman,Sen; Afif,Zeina; Gauri,Varun; Mohamed,Gohdar |
| Abstract: | Women’s labor force participation in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is very low, at 14 percent.This paper investigates a number of social and psychological barriers to participation, using recent methods in themeasurement of social norms and cultural beliefs and primary data collected from all three governorates. Furthermore,since greater growth in employment generation is expected in the private sector, the paper explores women and men’sperceptions toward working in the private sector in detail. The findings show that while 70 percent of women and mensupport women’s participation in the private sector. Several challenges remain in both information about the sector, aswell as perceived risks and discrimination. More broadly, the findings show that traditional gender role expectationsmay still impede women’s labor force participation. Perceptions of common societal practices and beliefs ofother members from the same household are all correlated with women’s work. The paper explores additional mentalbarriers using a smaller sample of younger and more educated female job seekers, who are registered with a jobs agency,and finds that both perseverance in the job search process and trust and engagement with formal institutions areadditional behavioral barriers. |
| Date: | 2022–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10028&r= |