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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2022‒10‒03
nine papers chosen by |
| By: | Tastan, Kadri |
| Abstract: | The desire of the European Union (EU) to reduce its dependency on Russia for gas and diversify its sources of supply by turning to the resources of Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Eastern Mediterranean regions theoretically gives Turkey a major role in the EU's diversification and energy security policy. However, this strategic role for Turkey seems to be overestimated, given the limited share of energy that transits through Turkey to Europe. With the Russian invasion and Europe's search for alternative energy sources in extremis, the old discussion resurfaces: Could Turkey become a major transit country for energy supplies? Given the structural changes that have occurred in the energy markets, the objective of decarbonisation, and of course the political and infrastructural challenges, it seems that this old dream will not come true this time either. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:382022&r= |
| By: | Dalay, Galip |
| Abstract: | The war in Ukraine is set to increase the pressure on Turkey's balancing policy, shed light on the role of anti-Westernism in Ankara-Moscow relations, and reshape Turkey's relations with Russia and the West. The balancing policy will face a less permissive environment. However, a rupture in Turkey-Russia relations is not to be expected. Given the prohibitive cost of a breakdown, Ankara will strive to maintain functional bilateral relations with Moscow. More broadly, despite the changed context, Turkey will continue to seek autonomy in its foreign and security policy. This quest precedes the balancing policy and was not driven solely by discontent with the West. It was also informed by Turkey's reading of the global order becoming more multipolar and less Western-centric. In spite of similarities in their narratives, the Turkish and Russian anti-Westernisms manifest themselves differently in policy terms. Finally, Russia's geopolitical revisionism is set to drive Turkey and the West relatively closer together in matters geopolitical and strategic, provided that Turkey's current blockage of Sweden and Finland's NATO membership bid is resolved in the not too distant future. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:352022&r= |
| By: | Çevik, Salim |
| Abstract: | In the early hours of 18 April, Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) launched a military operation inside Northern Iraq dubbed Claw-Lock. Simultaneously, Turkey intensified its military activities in Syria. Furthermore, on 23 May, President Tayyip Erdoægan announced that Turkey will soon start a new military operation in Syria. These moves reflect Turkey's new military strategy, based on area control, against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). So far, this new approach has yielded military success. However, it is precisely military success that is reinforcing the tendency to deal with the Kurdish problem only in terms of security and military solutions and to rule out any long-term political solution to the problem. Europe should continue to support efforts towards seeking a solution that also addresses the political dimensions of the problem. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:372022&r= |
| By: | Mr. Maximilien Queyranne; Romain Lafarguette; Kubi Johnson |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general. |
| Keywords: | Emerging markets; inflation; inflation expectations; Phillips Curve; monetary policy; central bank communication; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2022–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/168&r= |
| By: | Tanrıverdi Yaşar, Nebahat |
| Abstract: | African states are aspiring to strengthen their defence capabilities against the backdrop of ongoing instability in the continent. Turkey has lately added security and defence cooperation to its existing soft power instruments and laid the foundations for long-term strategic cooperation with African countries. Increasing drone sales are an important part of this cooperation, but they are not its only component. A mutually reinforcing policy design of arms exports, military training, and defence diplomacy allows the Turkish administration to build long-term and institutional bonds with African countries. Today, Turkey is one among many security providers that African states can choose from. Also, the European Union (EU), in its February summit with the African Union, committed to strengthening its role in addressing shared peace and security challenges in the continent. To achieve this goal, the EU and its member states should revisit potential cooperation areas with partners that are active in the continent and consider the benefits of potential cooperation with Ankara. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:422022&r= |
| By: | Dauletzhan Baimukhanov; Onajomo Akemu; Atanu Rakshit |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asx:nugsbd:2022-15&r= |
| By: | Major, Claudia; Swistek, Göran |
| Abstract: | Der Nato-Gipfel von Madrid im Juni 2022 hat eine umfassende Neuausrichtung der Allianz auf den Weg gebracht. Das zeigen drei zentrale Beschlüsse: die Verabschiedung des neuen Strategischen Konzepts, die angekündigte Aufnahme Finnlands und Schwedens sowie die militärische Neuaufstellung. Der russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine wirkte dabei teils als Auslöser (Norderweiterung), teils als Katalysator, der Entwicklungen beschleunigt, die sich bereits seit langem abzeichnen (militärische Neuaufstellung). Ausgangspunkt für diese Beschlüsse ist die Feststellung, dass Russland derzeit die größte Bedrohung darstellt. Folglich priorisiert die Nato jetzt klar kollektive Verteidigung im euroatlantischen Raum, während das zuvor dominierende internationale Krisenmanagement (etwa in Afghanistan) an Bedeutung verliert. Dieser Fokus wird das kommende Jahrzehnt prägen. Deutschland hat dafür einen Führungsanspruch formuliert. Um ihn umzusetzen, muss sich die Bundeswehr mit Blick auf Ausstattung, Einsatzbereitschaft und Finanzierung besser aufstellen. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:492022&r= |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Elbek, Abdullaev |
| Abstract: | This article aims to examine the deindustrialization in the post-Soviet economies from the perspective of the premature deindustrialization hypothesis, and also to investigate the factors that cause the deindustrialization: a comparative advantage in manufacturing, the Dutch Disease factor, human capital and institutions. This study takes the following two steps: first, to show the degree of the deindustrialization by their country-specific fixed effect in the estimation of manufacturing-population-income relationships, and second, to reveal the contributions of the deindustrialization factors to the country-specific fixed effect. The main findings from the empirical estimations are summarized as follows. First, the result of the fixed-effect model estimation suggested the existence of the deindustrialization in the ten middle-income countries out of the total 15 post-Soviet countries. Second, the outcomes of the factor-analyses revealed that the deindustrialization in the ten countries is fully explained by their comparative disadvantages in manufacturing as the overall contributor, and further by the sub-factors: the lack of human capital, the Dutch Disease effect (mainly in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, and Uzbekistan) and immature institutions (mainly in Kyrgyz, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan). |
| Keywords: | Deindustrialization, Post-Soviet economies, Dutch Disease, Human capital, Institutions, and Manufacturing |
| JEL: | O14 O57 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114413&r= |
| By: | Asali, Muhammad (ISET, Tbilisi State University); Pantsulaia, Valida (National Bank of Georgia) |
| Abstract: | In the first two quarters of 2013 the Georgian government introduced and fully implemented a universal health care (UHC) plan covering all those not-yet publicly or privately insured. We estimate the effect of the introduction of the universal healthcare plan on the level of out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures of households. We find that the program saved households an economically and statistically significant amount of 92 GEL per household/ month: a major effect, amounting to about 10% of the average household monthly income and 30% of the average individual monthly income at the time. The OOP payments reduction is almost totally attributed to people utilizing serious, emergency, or life-saving inpatient and outpatient services—lending support to the hypothesis that the UHC program, not only has reduced the OOP health expenditures, but it might have also improved the overall health status in the country. |
| Keywords: | universal healthcare, out of pocket health expenditures, public health, health insurance |
| JEL: | I13 I18 H51 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15494&r= |