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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the drivers of Turkish inflation by using a structural vector autoregression model, where monthly data on global oil prices, unemployment rates, inflation rates, policy rates and exchange rates are used. The empirical results show that Turkish inflation increases following a negative policy rate shock, a positive exchange rate shock, or a positive global oil price shock. The volatility of Turkish inflation is mostly explained by global oil prices and exchange rate movements in the long run, while the contribution of exchange rate shocks to Turkish inflation has continuously increased over time. As additional empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation can be reduced by positive policy rate shocks, it is implied that a conventional monetary policy increasing policy rates following an increase in inflation or a depreciation of Turkish lira would be optimal to achieve and maintain price stability in Turkey, which is the primary objective of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Inflation, Unemployment, Exchange Rate, Turkey |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F41 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2204 |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the export values of manufactured goods for the Central Asian countries by using a gravity trade model, and investigates the roles of institutional qualities in manufacturing exports based on the World Governance Indicators. The findings of this study are summarized as follows. With Kazakhstan being a benchmark country, the remaining four Central Asian countries have downward deviations in manufacturing exports and institutional qualities. Then the institutional qualities such as control of corruption, government effectiveness and rule of law are identified to be the major factors to explain the differences in the manufacturing exports’ performances. |
| Keywords: | Central Asia; manufacturing exports; institutional qualities; World Governance Indicators; gravity trade model |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113585 |