|
on Central and Western Asia |
|
Issue of 2022‒05‒09
six papers chosen by |
| By: | Kenderdine, Tristan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Bucsky, Peter (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), known as the Middle Corridor, is a multilateral institutional development linking the containerized rail freight transport networks of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the European Union through the economies of Central Asia, the Caucasus, Turkey, and Eastern Europe. The multilateral, multimodal transport institution links Caspian and Black Sea ferry terminals with rail systems in the PRC, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Poland. Trans-Eurasian and intra-Eurasian rail freight development remains fundamentally policy- and subsidy-driven on the PRC side, yet dependent on European Union demand-side drivers to create traffic flow volumes. The development of the Middle Corridor, though, is institutionally independent and potentially transformative for the economies of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey. We explore the institutional development of transport infrastructure and economic potential from three macroregional angles: policy- and subsidy-driven development, the Central Asia–Caucasus–Turkey physical industrial geography and political institution limitations, and lack of demand-side fundamentals from European Union market agents. The PRC’s supply-side-policy evidence suggests that growth in transcontinental containerized rail transport is politically feasible. However, demand-side factors suggest that trade development potential is largely limited to greater extraregional connectivity from the Middle Corridor economies with little economic rationale for increased PRC–Europe transcontinental freight flows. |
| Keywords: | transport policy; economic geography; geoindustrial policy; industrial policy; Eurasian economic integration |
| JEL: | B15 B27 B52 E02 E61 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1268&r= |
| By: | Kalyuzhnova, Yelena (Asian Development Bank Institute); Pomfret, Richard (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The historical routes from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India to the Middle East or Europe ran north of, south of, and across the Caspian Sea. Since 1500, maritime transport has dominated trade between Europe and East Asia. Central Asia became an economic backwater, incorporated into the Russian Empire and later forming part of the Soviet Union from 1917 to 1991. Practically all the trade links ran north to the Russian Federation. In the 21st century, with the increasing significance of Central Asia as an energy producer, countries have constructed several oil and gas pipelines. However, for trade in other goods, new transport corridors opened up more slowly until, in the 2010s, the PRC–EU rail links began operating through Kazakhstan. We examine the establishment of new trade corridors in the form of pipelines and railway lines, focusing on trans-Caspian links. We also discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade. The disruption resulting from lockdowns and quarantine requirements has negatively affected maritime, air, and other types of transportation. The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with substantially depressed energy prices, is putting additional financial pressure on the Caspian governments, which are struggling with the major medical challenges that the pandemic has created. |
| Keywords: | trade; Caspian region; Trans-Caspian International Transport Route; energy; oil |
| JEL: | F13 P25 P28 Q35 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1266&r= |
| By: | Azhgaliyeva, Dina (Asian Development Bank Institute); Mishra, Ranjeeta (Asian Development Bank Institute); Karymshakov, Kamalbek (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of COVID-19 on households in Mongolia, particularly the choice of fuel for heating and cooking and awareness about harmful effects of indoor pollution due to the combustion of solid fuels for heating and cooking. We use publicly available MICS Plus survey data from UNICEF. MICS Plus is a longitudinal household survey with a sample of 2,000 representative households that collects information through telephone interviews. We compare data from a pre-COVID period (2018) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (December 2020). Our results show that households where the decision maker is female are more likely to have a clean source of heating—a district heating system. The results also show that a larger proportion of households switched to cleaner heating in the COVID-19 period. First, the share of households using central heating increased in 2020 to 26% from 19% in 2018. Second, the share of households using improved fuel for their heating requirements increased in 2020 as compared to 2018. Third, in December 2020, after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, households were more likely to use district heating and manufactured space heaters than cooking stoves for heating compared with 2018. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Mongolia; household survey; district heating; fuel choice; space heater |
| JEL: | D14 G51 H12 H84 I10 I24 J60 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1292&r= |
| By: | Kim, Young Jin (Hanyang University Asia-Pacific Research Center); Hyun, Seung-so (Korea Institute for National Unification); Lee, Jong Hwa (Korea Information Society Development Institute (KISDI)); Jeong, Soomi (Korea Information Society Development Institute (KISDI)); Sung, Jinsok (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Center for International Area Studies); Lee, Sangche (Korea Institute of Finance); Jung, Sunmi (Hanshin Eurasia Institute(HEI)) |
| Abstract: | 2022년은 한국과 중앙아시아 5개국이 수교한 지 30주년이 되는 해이다. 최근 들어 4차 산업혁명의 진전과 중앙아시아 각국의 경제현대화 정책에 힘입어 중앙아시아 국가들의 경제 및 사회 구조에 대대적인 변화가 일어나면서 한국과 중앙아시아 간 협력 가능성이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구는 지난 30년에 걸친 한-중앙아시아 국가 간 경제협력의 성과를 평가하고, 미래 유망 협력분야로 ① 디지털 ② 신재생에너지 ③ 금융 ④ 보건의료 분야를 4대 협력분야로 선정하여 각 협력분야에 대한 심도 있는 분석과 정책 방안을 제시하였다. Central Asia refers to five countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, which became independent after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The Region, located in the heart of the Eurasian continent, is attracting attention as a key promising participant for regional integration projects of major powers, and is the site of fierce geopolitical competition between Russia, China and the United States. Central Asian economies which are dependent on the export of energy resources such as oil and natural gas, are diversifying their industrial structure through policies to encourage manufacturing industry in line with the transition to a global carbon-neutral era, and are implementing policies to expand the development of new and renewable energy. In addition, as non-face-to-face activities have become normal due to the COVID-19 crisis, digital transformation including ICT industry is accelerating in Central Asia, where population density is low. 2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between Korea and the five Central Asian countries. Korea has grown into an important import partner in Central Asia over the past 30 years. According to the official statistics of each country in 2020, Korea is the third largest importer of Kazakhstan, the fourth largest importer of Uzbekistan, and the seventh and ninth largest importer of remaining three Central Asian countries. On the other hand, Central Asia is not a major trading partner for Korea, as it accounts for less than 1% of Korea’s total exports and imports. Trade items between Korea and Central Asia are also limited to some items due to differences in economic structure and economic development. However, the possibility of cooperation between Korea and Central Asia is increasing as the 4th Industrial Revolution and economic modernization policies of Central Asian countries have led to major changes in economic and social structures of Central Asian countries. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Korea; India; CEPA; SMEs |
| Date: | 2021–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2021_033&r= |
| By: | Sophio Togonidze; Evžen Kočenda |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic fundamentals in a panel of emerging economies from three regions and with different resource endowments. The existing literature on emerging economies remains inconclusive on how regional factors and resource characteristics affect the response of macroeconomic variables against oil price shocks. We show that (i) exports in Europe and Central Asia are more oil-driven than East Asia and the Pacific, and that (ii) policy-makers in East Asia and the Pacific should be concerned with real exchange appreciation following a positive oil shock to mitigate loss in non-oil export market. Analysis by resource-endowment further reveal that in less-resource-intensive economies oil price shock cause large variation consumption, and a negative and persistent impact on real GDP. In mineral-exporting economies, real GDP and interest rates are largely driven by oil price shocks. The response of real GDP in mineralexporting economies is short-lived. In oil exporting economies, it is only real GDP that has a large variation in response to oil price shock. For policy making, our findings underscores the need for customized policy responses to oil price shocks depending on resourceendowments as we confirm that a "uniform-policy cannot fit all" economies. |
| JEL: | C11 E32 E37 F44 |
| Date: | 2022–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prg:jnlwps:v:4:y:2022:id:4.005&r= |
| By: | Elissaios Pappyrakis; Osiris Jorge Parcero |
| Abstract: | Despite rapidly-expanding academic and policy interest in the links between natural resource wealth and development failures (commonly referred to as the resource curse) little attention has been devoted to the psychology behind the phenomenon. Rent-seeking and excessive reliance on mineral revenues can be attributed largely to social psychology. Mineral booms (whether due to the discovery of mineral reserves or to the drastic rise in commodity prices) start as positive income shocks that can subsequently evolve into influential and expectation-changing public and media narratives; these lead consecutively to unrealistic demands that favor immediate consumption of accrued mineral revenues and to the postponement of productive investment. To our knowledge, this paper is the first empirical analysis that tests hypotheses regarding the psychological underpinnings of resource mismanagement in mineral-rich states. Our study relies on an extensive personal survey (of 1977 respondents) carried out in Almaty, Kazakhstan, between May and August 2018. We find empirical support for a positive link between exposure to news and inflated expectations regarding mineral availability, as well as evidence that the latter can generate preferences for excessive consumption, and hence, rent-seeking. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.03948&r= |