|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Argenton, Cedric (Tilburg University, TILEC); Ivanova-Stenzel, Radosveta; Müller, Wieland (Tilburg University, TILEC) |
| Keywords: | cournot; Bayesian game; Bayes-Nash equilibrium; repeated games; collusion; cooperation; experimental economics |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutil:03d1f1c4-0f0f-4d7c-8428-406bc1002e97&r= |
| By: | David Kohn (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Fernando Leibovici (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Michal Szkup (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent studies on the impact of financial frictions on international trade. We first present evidence on the relation between measures of access to external finance and export decisions. We then present an analytical framework to analyze the impact of financial frictions on firms’ export decisions. Finally, we review recent applications of this framework to investigate the impact of financial frictions on international trade dynamics across firms, industries, and in the aggregate. We discuss related empirical, theoretical, and quantitative studies throughout. |
| Keywords: | financial frictions, international trade, export decisions, trade distortions, firm dynamics |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:113&r= |
| By: | José Alves; João Quental Gonçalves |
| Abstract: | The present work offers a review on two divergent schools of thought regarding the subject of money and highlights why understanding it is important to grasp the workings and nature of the concept of money. We adopt a spontaneous order perspective on social institutions, considering money as one. Such framework allows for the construction of axioms from which we formulate our problem allowing us to ask how old forms of money such as Gold and Silver hold up in today’s world regarding their hedging properties. Moreover, we also do so for Bitcoin since we consider it an appropriate asset due to its specific characteristics and its (at the time of writing) more than 10-year life span. We resort to the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology in order to study our three assets in the context of the US dollar and the US Economy for two different time periods. We analyse price dynamics from 1980 to 2020 for gold and silver resorting to annual data. Regarding bitcoin we employ quarterly data from 2009 to 2020. We conclude that the theories that explain what money is, how it comes to be so and how certain types of “money assets” may serve both as an indirect hedge against inflation in the two interpretations of the word and as a “stock of value” have merits that might deserve further investigation. |
| Keywords: | Money; Inflation; Gold; Silver; Bitcoin |
| JEL: | B25 D46 E42 E51 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02222022&r= |
| By: | Czarnitzki, Dirk; Fernández, Gastón P.; Rammer, Christian |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often regarded as the next general-purpose technology with a rapid, penetrating, and far-reaching use over a broad number of industrial sectors. A main feature of new general-purpose technology is to enable new ways of production that may increase productivity. So far, however, only very few studies investigated likely productivity effects of AI at the firm-level; presumably because of lacking data. We exploit unique survey data on firms' adoption of AI technology and estimate its productivity effects with a sample of German firms. We employ both a cross-sectional dataset and a panel database. To address the potential endogeneity of AI adoption, we also implement an IV approach. We find positive and significant effects of the use of AI on firm productivity. This finding holds for different measures of AI usage, i.e., an indicator variable of AI adoption, and the intensity with which firms use AI methods in their business processes. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence,Productivity,CIS data |
| JEL: | O14 O31 O33 L25 M15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:22005&r= |
| By: | Andrej Gill (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz); Florian Hett (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz); Johannes Tischer (Deutsche Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | Households regularly fail to make optimal financial decisions. But what are the underlying reasons for this? Using two conceptually distinct measures of time inconsistency based on bank account transaction data and behavioral measurement experiments, we show that the excessive use of bank account overdrafts is linked to time inconsistency. By contrast, there is no correlation between a survey-based measure of financial literacy and overdraft usage. Our results indicate that consumer education and information may not suffice to overcome mistakes in households’ financial decision-making. Rather, behaviorally motivated interventions targeting specific biases in decision-making should also be considered as effective policy tools. |
| Keywords: | Household Finance, Paycheck Sensitivity, Fintech, Time Inconsistency, Time Preferences, Experiment, Behavioral Measurement |
| JEL: | D14 D90 G51 G53 |
| Date: | 2022–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2205&r= |
| By: | Joern H. Block; Mirko Hirschmann; Tobias Kranz; Matthias Neuenkirch |
| Abstract: | Research and public interest on economic inequality have grown over the last years. Family firms and the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few wealthy business families have been discussed as both a cause and a consequence of economic inequality. Yet, so far, we lack knowledge about the relationship between economic inequality and the share of family firms in an economy. Our study investigates how the share of family-controlled public firms correlates with various measures of income and wealth inequality. The results show that a higher share of public family-controlled firms leads to more income inequality in a country. This effect is particularly pronounced for the middle of the income distribution as opposed to the top quantiles. Redistribution only mitigates this effect to some extent, as the effect is significant for market income and disposable income. We also find that a higher share of family-controlled firms contributes to an increase in wealth inequality. Our results are of economic relevance as, for instance, a one standard deviation change in the share of family-controlled firms leads to an increase of around 1.4 percentage points in the Gini coefficients for market income, disposable income, and wealth. |
| Keywords: | Cross-country analysis, family firms, income inequality, wealth inequality |
| JEL: | C50 D63 E00 L23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202204&r= |
| By: | Jeanne Commault (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | While macro models increasingly incorporate substantial risk, the theoretical knowledge about the effect of uncertainty on consumption growth consists of intuitions from the second order log-linearized Euler equation. I show that the derivation of the log-linearized Euler equation is flawed in that it does not consist in linearizing an Euler equation but in linearizing an ad-hoc mathematical identity. I prove exactly that uncertainty raises consumption growth and makes consumption depart from a random walk. I also prove that this precautionary consumption growth is decreasing in assets, and in transitory and permanent income when income is a transitory-permanent process. |
| Keywords: | Precautionary behavior,Log-linearized Euler equation,Random walk hypothesis |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03591010&r= |
| By: | Martin Waltz; Abhay Kumar Singh; Ostap Okhrin |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an important extension to Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR), the popular systemic risk measure, and investigates its properties on the cryptocurrency market. The proposed Vulnerability-CoVaR (VCoVaR) is defined as the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a financial system or institution, given that at least one other institution is equal or below its VaR. The VCoVaR relaxes normality assumptions and is estimated via copula. While important theoretical findings of the measure are detailed, the empirical study analyzes how different distressing events of the cryptocurrencies impact the risk level of each other. The results show that Litecoin displays the largest impact on Bitcoin and that each cryptocurrency is significantly affected if an event of joint distress among the remaining market participants occurs. The VCoVaR is shown to capture domino effects better than other CoVaR extensions. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2203.10777&r= |
| By: | Oya Celasun; Ms. Aiko Mineshima; Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen; Jing Zhou; Mariano Spector |
| Abstract: | Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence of supply bottlenecks. Globally, shutdowns can explain up to 40 percent of the supply shocks. Sectors that are more reliant on differentiated inputs—such as autos—are harder hit. Late last year industry experts expected supply shortages for autos to largely dissipate by mid-2022 and broader bottlenecks by end-2022, but given the Omicron wave, disruptions will last for longer, possibly into 2023. With supply constraints adding to price pressures, the challenge for policymakers is to support recovery without allowing high inflation to become entrenched. |
| Keywords: | Output, Inflation, Manufacturing, Supply Constraints; PPI inflation; producer price inflation; supply-shock contribution; chip shortage; industry expert; Supply shocks; Inflation; Manufacturing; Producer price indexes; Labor shortages; Global |
| Date: | 2022–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/031&r= |
| By: | Yuxuan Huang; Luiz Fernando Capretz; Danny Ho |
| Abstract: | Application of machine learning for stock prediction is attracting a lot of attention in recent years. A large amount of research has been conducted in this area and multiple existing results have shown that machine learning methods could be successfully used toward stock predicting using stocks historical data. Most of these existing approaches have focused on short term prediction using stocks historical price and technical indicators. In this paper, we prepared 22 years worth of stock quarterly financial data and investigated three machine learning algorithms: Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN), Random Forest (RF) and Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for stock prediction based on fundamental analysis. In addition, we applied RF based feature selection and bootstrap aggregation in order to improve model performance and aggregate predictions from different models. Our results show that RF model achieves the best prediction results, and feature selection is able to improve test performance of FNN and ANFIS. Moreover, the aggregated model outperforms all baseline models as well as the benchmark DJIA index by an acceptable margin for the test period. Our findings demonstrate that machine learning models could be used to aid fundamental analysts with decision-making regarding stock investment. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2202.05702&r= |
| By: | Faryna, Oleksandr (National Bank of Ukraine and National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy); Jonsson, Magnus (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Shapovalenko, Nadiia (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | We use a standard new Keynesian model to evaluate the cost of disinflation – measured by the sacrifice ratio, the central bank’s loss function, and the welfare cost – in a small open economy vis-à-vis a closed economy. Disinflation is either more costly or less beneficial in the small open economy, but the results vary quantitatively depending on the measure and the economic environment. Optimised simple monetary policy rules imply that the relative weight on inflation stabilisation should be lower in the small open economy if the central bank minimises the loss function, but higher if it maximises welfare. |
| Keywords: | Disinflation; sacrifice ratio; central bank’s loss function; welfare cost; small open economy; new Keynesian model; optimised rules; imperfect credibility |
| JEL: | E31 E50 F41 |
| Date: | 2021–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0407&r= |
| By: | Luis Bauluz (University of Bonn, World Inequality Lab); Filip Novokmet (University of Bonn, World Inequality Lab); Moritz Schularick (Sciences Po, University of Bonn, CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a household-level perspective on the rise of global saving and wealth since the 1980s. We calculate asset-specific saving flows and capital gains across the wealth distribution for the G3 economies – the U.S., Europe, and China. In the past four decades, global saving inequality has risen sharply. The share of household saving flows coming from the richest 10% of household increased by 60% while saving of middle class households has fallen sharply. The most important source for the surge in top-10% saving was the secular rise of global corporate saving whose ultimate owners the rich households are. Housing capital gains have supported wealth growth for middle-class households despite falling saving and rising debt. Without meaningful capital gains in risky assets, the wealth share of the bottom half of the population declined substantially in most G3 economies. |
| Keywords: | Income and wealth inequality, household portfolios, historical micro data |
| JEL: | D31 E21 E44 N32 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:161&r= |
| By: | Elise S. Brezis (Bar-Ilan University) |
| Abstract: | The Economic Consequences of the Peace was first published in 1919, and since then, changed the economic discourse surrounding reparations and Carthaginian peace. This paper specifies how three elements hinted at in the introduction of the Economic Consequences of the Peace – social classes, national sovereignty, and the international political system – can explain Keynes’ assessment of Carthaginian peace. The paper analyzes the optimality of reparations in the context of these three elements. I show that in the situation of a hegemonic country, all classes - the working class as well as the elite - opt for no reparations. But, in a balance of power context, wherein no single actor on the international scene possesses hegemonic status, the working class will choose harsh reparations, while the transnational elite and Keynes will not. |
| Keywords: | Balance of Power, Carthaginian Peace, Hegemony, Reparations, National Sovereignty. |
| JEL: | B17 B27 E12 F30 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biu:wpaper:2022-04&r= |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the correlation of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) with nonperforming loans and loan loss provisions for 22 developed countries from 2008 to 2017. The findings reveal that economic policy uncertainty is negatively correlated with nonperforming loans and loan loss provisions in the banking sector of EU countries. Also, economic policy uncertainty is negatively correlated with nonperforming loans in the banking sector of the G7 countries while loan loss provision is more responsive to changes in EPU in EU countries. The implication of the findings is that the correlation of economic policy uncertainty with loan loss provisions and nonperforming loans is influenced by regional characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Loan loss provisions, bank performance, nonperforming loans, policy uncertainty, EPU index, economic policy uncertainty, European union, correlation. |
| JEL: | E52 E59 G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112381&r= |
| By: | Fleche, Sarah; Lepinteur, Anthony; Powdthavee, Nattavudh |
| Abstract: | Can capital constraints explain why there are more male than female entrepreneurs in most societies? We study this issue by exploiting longitudinal data on lottery winners. Comparing between large to small winners, we find that an increase in lottery win in period t-1 significantly increases the likelihood of becoming self-employed in period t. This windfall effect is statistically the same in magnitude for men and women; a one percent increase in exogenous income increases the probability of female selfemployment by 0.6 percentage points, which is approximately 10% of the gender entrepreneurial gap. These results suggest that we can causally reduce the gender entrepreneurial gap by improving women’s access to capital that might not be as readily available to the aspiring female entrepreneurs as it is to male entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | gender inequality; self-employment; lottery wins; BHPS |
| JEL: | J16 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114438&r= |
| By: | Ryan, Ellen |
| Abstract: | The investment fund sector has expanded dramatically since the crisis of 2008-2009. As the sector grows, so do the implications of its risk-taking for the wider financial system and real economy. This paper provides empirical evidence for the existence of widespread risk-taking incentives in the investment fund sector, with a particular focus on incentives for synchronised, cyclical risk-taking which could have systemic effects. Incentives arise from the positive response of investors to returns achieved through cyclical risk-taking and non-linearities in the relationship between fund returns and fund flows, which may keep managers from fully internalising the effects of adverse outcomes on their portfolios. The fact that market discipline may not be sufficient to ensure prudential behaviour among managers, combined with the externalities of this risk-taking for the wider system, creates a clear case for macroprudential regulatory intervention. JEL Classification: G23, G11, G28 |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, incentive, investment funds, macroprudential policy, risk-taking |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222652&r= |
| By: | Mr. Vladimir Klyuev; Leandro Medina; Dmitry Plotnikov; Tryggvi Gudmundsson; Mr. Boaz Nandwa; Francisco Schiffrer; Di Yang |
| Abstract: | This article documents recent developments in emerging markets in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses their prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term. It argues that EM policymakers’ ability to grapple with an incomplete and uneven recovery will be constrained by high public debt and uncertain inflation prospects as well as external risks surrounding capital flows and exchange rate developments. The paper also discusses potential impact of a tightening in global financial conditions and appreciation of the US dollar that could be triggered by a general increase in risk aversion or a reassessment of the likely path of US monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Emerging markets, COVID-19, Monetary Policy |
| Date: | 2022–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/035&r= |
| By: | Samuel N. Cohen; Christoph Reisinger; Sheng Wang |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the capacity of an arbitrage-free neural-SDE market model to produce realistic scenarios for the joint dynamics of multiple European options on a single underlying. We subsequently demonstrate its use as a risk simulation engine for option portfolios. Through backtesting analysis, we show that our models are more computationally efficient and accurate for evaluating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of option portfolios, with better coverage performance and less procyclicality than standard filtered historical simulation approaches. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2202.07148&r= |
| By: | Wai Weng Lo; Siamak Layeghy; Marius Portmann |
| Abstract: | Criminals have become increasingly experienced in using cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, for money laundering. The use of cryptocurrencies can hide criminal identities and transfer hundreds of millions of dollars of dirty funds through their criminal digital wallets. However, this is considered a paradox because cryptocurrencies are gold mines for open-source intelligence, allowing law enforcement agencies to have more power in conducting forensic analyses. This paper proposed Inspection-L, a graph neural network (GNN) framework based on self-supervised Deep Graph Infomax (DGI), with Random Forest (RF), to detect illicit transactions for Anti-Money laundering (AML). To the best of our knowledge, our proposal is the first of applying self-supervised GNNs to the problem of AML in Bitcoin. The proposed method has been evaluated on the Elliptic dataset and shows that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of key classification metrics, which demonstrates the potential of self-supervised GNN in cryptocurrency illicit transaction detection. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2203.10465&r= |
| By: | Laeven, Luc; Maddaloni, Angela; Mendicino, Caterina |
| Abstract: | Recent research developed under the ECB research task force on Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability highlights the existence of trade-offs and spillovers that monetary policy and macroprudential authorities face when deciding on their policy interventions. Monetary policy measures are key to support the supply of credit to the economy, but they could also have unintended consequences on financial stability risks. Macroprudential policies are instead effective in limiting financial stability risks, but they could also reduce the length of economic expansions by preventing credit from flowing to productive economic activities. In addition, since monetary and macroprudential policies transmit to the broad economy via the financial system, they unavoidably affect each other’s effectiveness. Taking these factors into account is key for the design and implementation of both policies. JEL Classification: E3, E44, G01, G21 |
| Keywords: | financial frictions, policy trade-offs, risk taking, systemic risk |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222647&r= |
| By: | Jérôme Trinh (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a method to disaggregate very small time series by fitting them with higher frequency related series using a cointegration regression with multiple partial endogenous structural breaks. We allow any coecient to change at up to two dates of structural break and three related series and provide critical values for the test of cointegration corrected for the very small sample size. We find that increasing the num- ber of related series drastically improves the power of the test by allowing for increased flexibility in the cointegration model. The simulated power of the test is shown to be very high even in very small sample sizes such as fifteen observations. This flexibility also mildly improves the accuracy of the disaggregation method when the sample size is as small as thirty-five observations. An application to the Chinese national accounts data is provided and allows the study of the Chinese business cycles stylized facts. We find that household consumption, public spending, and trade surpluses are the main driver of the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Time series, macroeconomic forecasting, disaggregation, structural change, business cycles, emerging economies |
| JEL: | C32 E17 E37 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2022-10&r= |
| By: | Ivan Moscati |
| Abstract: | I examine some behavioral and heuristic-based models of individual decision making, and argue that the diverse psychological mechanisms these models posit are cognitively too demanding to be implemented, consciously or unconsciously, by actual decision makers. Accordingly, and contrary to what their advocates typically claim, behavioral and heuristic models are best understood as “as-if models†that account for the observable choices that individuals make, but do not pretend to capture the actual psychological mechanisms that generate those choices. In this respect, behavioral and heuristic models are just like neoclassical models, whose as-if status is generally acknowledged. I then sketch a local version of scientific antirealism that justifies the practice of as-if modelling in the theory of decision making. The antirealism on offer emphasizes the role that mechanistic explanations play in decision analysis, and therefore goes beyond traditional instrumentalism. |
| Keywords: | Decision theory; Expected Utility theory; Cumulative Prospect Theory; Priority Heuristic model; Scientific antirealism; Mechanistic explanation |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp22177&r= |
| By: | Francois Bareille (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raja Chakir (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Ricardian analyses of farmland values have become a cornerstone of the literature valuing the impacts of climate change on agriculture. However, concerns about the lack of a formal econometric strategy to deal with omitted farmland characteristics have raised doubts about the identification of such impacts. This paper proposes an original method for estimating Ricardian models with plot fixed effects to control for confounding omitted variables. Specifically, we use plot-level repeat-sale data to investigate how differences in farmland prices are explained by differences in climate conditions between two sale dates in France from 1996 to 2019. We show that, in comparison to our repeat-Ricardian estimates, standard Ricardian analyses result in artificially low benefits of climate change. In particular, our repeat-Ricardian estimates indicate that hotter summers should benefit French agriculture, in complete opposition to our pooled Ricardian estimates or to the remainder of the literature. Our repeat-Ricardian results are robust to several specifications, length-definitions of climate and sub-samples. Our simulations suggest that the omitted variable bias in standard Ricardian analyses leads to an underestimation of the impacts of future climate changes of between 56% and 96%. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation,Global warming,Hedonic pricing analysis,Panel econometrics,Repeat sales,Climate Change |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03582719&r= |
| By: | Mukherjee, Sacchidananda (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | The Union government foregoes revenue on account of various tax exemption/incentive schemes promoted for various purposes. The Constitution of India assigns power of taxation of broad-based taxes to the Union (Federal) government (e.g., Corporate Income Tax, Personal Income Tax, Union Excise Duty, Customs duty). Like the Union government, provincial (or State) governments also provide tax incentives (within the scope and coverage of their taxation power) but revenue impacts (or foregone) of those tax exemption schemes at the state level are not assessed yet. Comprehensive assessment of tax expenditures is important especially after the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST). Given the data limitations, the present paper assesses the trends and patterns (structure) of tax expenditures of Union taxes during 2005-06 to 2019-20. Overall tax expenditures of the Union government declined from 8.15 per cent of GVA (Gross Value Added) in 2008-09 to 1.69 per cent in 2019-20. It was possible mainly on account of continuous reduction of tax expenditures on indirect taxes. Tax expenditures on direct taxes (on account of CIT and PIT only) also declined from 32.7 per cent of direct tax (CIT PIT only) collection in 2008-09 to 22.4 per cent in 2019-20. The tax expenditures related to Union Excise Duty (UED) and Customs Duty (CD) declined from 152 per cent in 2008-09 to 12.6 per cent of tax collection on account of UED and CD in 2019-20. Post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) successive Union budgets raised standard rate of excise duty gradually to pre-GFC level, pruned down the exemption list and consolidated rate structure of excise duty (or CenVAT) to prepare for introduction of GST. This helped the government to contain tax expenditures on indirect taxes. |
| Keywords: | Tax Expenditures ; Tax Incentives ; Tax Policy ; Federal Government ; Union Taxes ; India |
| JEL: | H25 H24 H61 H11 D72 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:22/380&r= |
| By: | John C. Williams |
| Abstract: | Remarks at Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies 2022 Spring Symposium, Princeton, New Jersey. |
| Keywords: | inflation; pandemic; COVID-19; monetary policy; stability; labor market; Ukraine; expectations |
| Date: | 2022–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:93908&r= |
| By: | George Joseph (World Bank); Sophie Ayling (World Bank); Pepita Miquel-Florensa (Toulouse School of Economics); Hernán D. Bejarano (CIDE); Alejandra Quevedo Cardona ((World Bank/Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals) |
| Abstract: | In the past two decades, insights from behavioral sciences, particularly behavioral economics, have been widely applied in the design of social programs such as pensions, social security, and taxation. This paper provides a survey of the existing literature in economics on the application of behavioral insights to infrastructure sectors, focusing on water and energy. Various applications of behavioral insights in the literature are examined from the perspectives of the three main actors in the infrastructure sectors: policy makers, service providers, and consumers. Evidence is presented from the literature on how behavioral regularities, such as imperfect optimization, limited selfcontrol, and nonstandard preferences, affect the strategies, decisions, and actions of policy makers, service providers, and consumers, often leading to suboptimal outcomes for service investment, delivery, access, and use. The paper also highlights how behavioral interventions such as anchoring, framing, nonpecuniary incentives, and altering the choice architecture can lead to improvements in performance, adoption, consumption, and other outcomes of interest in the infrastructure sectors. |
| Keywords: | Micro-based Behavioral Economics; Publicly Provided Goods, Water, Energy, Infrastructure, Development Planning and Policy |
| JEL: | D9 H4 O21 Q4 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:119&r= |
| By: | Olovsson, Conny (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Walentin, Karl (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Westermark, Andreas (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
| Abstract: | International immigration flows are large, volatile and have recently increased. This paper is the first to study the dynamic effects of immigration shocks on the economy within a search and matching framework. Since the microdata indicates that some of the key macroeconomic effects of immigration are largest in the short run, a steady state analysis would be insufficient. To construct a quantitatively relevant general equilibrium framework, we use extensive Swedish microdata. We then study the effect of a large immigration shock on various macroeconomic aggregates. Due to compositional effects, there is a substantial negative effect on GDP per capita and the employment rate on impact that then decreases over time. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; dynamics; search and matching |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0405&r= |
| By: | Di Casola, Paola (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Stockhammar, Pär (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of domestic and foreign quantitative easing (QE) programmes on a small open economy, Sweden, using a structural BVAR model. Domestic QE raised GDP, lowered unemployment and depreciated the currency, while effects on inflation are less clear. The ECB QE had large positive effects on both GDP and inflation in Sweden, also due to the endogenous response of domestic QE to the foreign one. In terms of transmission channels, domestic QE improved lending conditions for households and lowered expected future rates, while foreign QE improved financing conditions for firms. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative Easing; international spillovers; transmission channels; small open economy; Bayesian VAR models |
| JEL: | E44 E52 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0404&r= |
| By: | Archil Gulisashvili |
| Abstract: | We establish a comprehensive sample path large deviation principle (LDP) for log-processes associated with multivariate time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models. Examples of models for which the new LDP holds include Gaussian models, non-Gaussian fractional models, mixed models, models with reflection, and models in which the volatility process is a solution to a Volterra type stochastic integral equation. The LDP for log-processes is used to obtain large deviation style asymptotic formulas for the distribution function of the first exit time of a log-process from an open set and for the price of a multidimensional binary barrier option. We also prove a sample path LDP for solutions to Volterra type stochastic integral equations with predictable coefficients depending on auxiliary stochastic processes. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2203.09015&r= |
| By: | Ignaciuk, Ada; Ilicic, Joanna; Asprooth, Lauren; Sitko, Nicholas J.; Bernard, Angela; Maggio, Giuseppe; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Mueller, Marc |
| Abstract: | The Progress towards Sustainable Agriculture initiative (PROSA) is a framework that seeks to complement ongoing efforts on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and particularly indicator 2.4.1, to support country-level assessments using data already available at the national level. Making agriculture more sustainable – productive, environmentally friendly, resilient and profitable is fundamental, as agriculture remains the main source of livelihood for the majority of the world’s poor and hungry. The pathway towards sustainable agriculture must ensure increasing output, but also make more efficient use of increasingly scarce global resources, be resilient to and help mitigate climate change, and improve human well-being. This technical study examines the key factors driving changes in trends in the indicators of sustainable agriculture and provides decision-makers with insights into viable options for achieving this goal. The study identifies five key groups of drivers that most influence these indicators globally. The ways in which each driver affects the multiple dimensions of sustainability highlights the interconnections, synergies and trade-offs that must be managed in different global contexts to achieve agricultural sustainability. The analysis can help decision-makers operating in different country contexts to identify practical solutions to ensure that their interventions contribute positively to a more sustainable agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:faoets:319833&r= |